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Biden Leads Dem Field in Two NH Polls

We got two polls for the state of New Hampshire in the past two days that both show Joe Biden now leading the Democratic field while Bernie Sanders is starting to sink in his probably must win early state. We start with Saint Anselm College where Sanders has actually fallen to fifth place.

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – DEM PRIMARY (Saint Anselm)
Joe Biden 21%
Kamala Harris 18%
Elizabeth Warren 17%
Pete Buttigieg 12%
Bernie Sanders 10%
Andrew yang 5%
Amy Klobuchar 3%
Marianne Williamson 2%
Everyone Else 1% or less

This poll was done July 10-12 among 351 Democratic primary voters. CNN and the University of New Hampshire gives better news for Sanders, basically having him switching spots with Kamala Harris.

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – DEM PRIMARY (CNN/UNH)
Joe Biden 24%
Elizabeth Warren 19%
Bernie Sanders 19%
Pete Buttigieg 10%
Kamala Harris 9%
Cory Booker 2%
Beto O’Rourke 2%
Everyone Else 1% or less

This poll was done July 8-15 among 386 likely primary voters. Sanders led the Democratic field by double digits just three months ago.

Posted by Dave at 10:23 pm
Filed under: General | Comments (184)

184 Responses to “Biden Leads Dem Field in Two NH Polls”

  1. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    1st

  2. Victrc says:

    Second….like the Democratic nominee for President in 2020 on election night

  3. Tgca says:

    Tres Bebe! Tres!

  4. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    I have no problem calling Trump an idiot when he does something completely stupid. Here is an example of him being and idiot:

    “Turkey started taking delivery of Russia’s S-400 air defense system last week in defiance of U.S. warnings that doing so would mean the Pentagon would kick it out of the F-35 stealth fighter program and that it could be subject to sanctions.
    Washington’s concern is that deploying the S-400 with the F-35 would allow Russia to gain too much inside information of the stealth system.
    Buying military equipment from Russia also leaves the NATO member liable to U.S. sanctions retribution under a 2017 law known as the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, or CAATSA.
    “It’s a very tough situation that they’re in, and it’s a very tough situation that we’ve been placed in the United States … we’ll see what happens. But it’s not really fair,” Trump told reporters at a Cabinet meeting at the White House.
    “Because of the fact that you bought a Russian missile, we’re not allowed to sell them billions of dollars’ worth of aircraft. It’s not a fair situation,” Trump said, lamenting the jobs that would be lost.
    “I would say that (F-35 manufacturer) Lockheed is not exactly happy,” he said.
    Trump’s nominee to become defense secretary, Army Secretary Mark Esper, reaffirmed in his Senate confirmation hearing the Pentagon’s long-standing position that Turkey could not have both the S-400 and F-35.
    Esper testified to the Senate Armed Services Committee on Tuesday that he told Turkey’s defense minister: “You can either have the S-400 or you can have the F-35. You cannot have both.””

  5. jason says:

    So you don’t think we should sell the F-35 to Turkey?

    I certainly disagree if that is your point.

  6. dblaikie says:

    Friends, Thomas Friedman reveals the deep fear that sane thinking people have who have a deep dislike for Donald Trump and his policies. Here is a small section of his article that deals with the dem debate:
    “So, I wasn’t surprised to hear so many people expressing fear that the racist, divisive, climate-change-denying, woman-abusing jerk who is our president was going to get re-elected, and was even seeing his poll numbers rise.

    Dear Democrats: This is not complicated! Just nominate a decent, sane person, one committed to reunifying the country and creating more good jobs, a person who can gain the support of the independents, moderate Republicans and suburban women who abandoned Donald Trump in the midterms and thus swung the House of Representatives to the Democrats and could do the same for the presidency. And that candidate can win!”

    You see for normal people who want to defeat Trump the emphasis is on saying and doing the sane thing to defeat him. But Trump derangement drives people the other way. Their hatred of Donald Trump drives them into a radicalism that can only result in defeat.

    The sad thing for people like Friedman is that it is too late, the cat is out of the barn. Biden is no longer capable and the others have embraced policies far to the left of the American people.

    I don’t usually agree with this columnist who has been a standard for the NYT for so many years but here is being a prophet who is too late for his Party.

    I close with another small quote from his prophetic words:

    “But please, spare me the revolution! It can wait. Win the presidency, hold the House and narrow the spread in the Senate, and a lot of good things still can be accomplished. “No,” you say, “the left wants a revolution now!” O.K., I’ll give the left a revolution now: four more years of Donald Trump.”

  7. jason says:

    I don’t know why anyone cares about the 2020 election since we don’t have much longer to live.

    For me, it just means I can have all the bacon I like.

    “The Prince of Wales has warned global leaders that if we don’t tackle climate change in 18 months the human race will go extinct in a speech in London yesterday to foreign ministers from the Commonwealth. “I am firmly of the view that the next 18 months will decide our ability to keep climate change to survivable levels and to restore nature to the equilibrium we need for our survival,” Prince Charles said.

    Flashback: 2015: Prince Charles gives world reprieve: Extends ‘100-Month’ climate ‘tipping point’ to 35 more years
    – Prince Charles had previously issued a 100-month climate tipping point deadline in 2009″

  8. jason says:

    Here is what I have to say to Thomas Friedman:

    SHHHHHHHHHHHHHSSSSHHH!

  9. Wes says:

    Mikey has found his official candidate for KS-Sen:

    Kris Kobach says he would vote for a known racist for office.

    I would remind you all Kobach helped Dennis Moore (D-KS) secure a seat in Congress by losing to him by 12 points in 2004 when previously Moore had struggled to hang on. Meanwhile last year, Kobach faced Dem opposition split two ways and carried three of the state’s four congressional districts—on the way to a 43-48 loss for the governorship.

    Now Kobach is trying to work his electoral magic in the extremely critical race for Senate. Naturally Schumer and Mikey approve.

  10. jason says:

    Bitter to say he doesn’t care what Prince Charles says because he isn’t English in 3, 2, 1….

    However, I asked Amos Stoltzfuss what he thought about the Prince of Wales saying the human race will extinct soon.

    He said the English are crazy.

  11. Wes says:

    Because he’s an idiot, Mikey will call this this fake news just as he declared the news about Trump’s dismal internal polling fake news:

    https://www.politico.com/story/2019/07/08/republicans-kobach-senate-run-1573348

  12. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Wes: This woman from Jamaica, Queens will most likely be AOC’s Republican opponent in 2020. Does she have a chance?

    https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ocasio-cortez-gets-new-2020-challenger

  13. Wes says:

    No, Sheep. AOC, Tlaib, and Omar are going nowhere unless defeated in a primary.

  14. Bitterlaw says:

    I don’t care about what Prince Charles says because he is an idiot. His nationality is irrelevant. I don’t care what American idiots say, either.

  15. Cash Cow TM says:

    GOOD MOO-RNING!

    At least it was until Walt has decided to enroll me as the lead worker in putting in the landscaping stones, compost, top soil, etc. for the NEW raised flower bed.

    Will be well over 100 of those big arsed landscaping stones, and a truck load of top soil and other bags of crapola.
    #####################################
    I will have no time to research the new UFO stories, monkeys, lost airliners…

  16. jason says:

    NYC has been AWOL since I challenged him to state exactly what my differences with Milton Friedman were on trade.

    Well, actually he did drive by to spout some nonsense that yeah, tariffs are wrong but Trump needs trade wars to get elected, and the astonishing statement that “Friedman would think differently if he was running for office”.

    But maybe he might be back to defend the “Mikey Maneuver” with deadender Kobach.

  17. jason says:

    Hey Ma….

  18. jason says:

    Walt must be saving a crapload of money on fertilizer….

  19. jason says:

    Nobody laughed? GFYs.

  20. Tina says:

    Prolly the most traditional conservative foreign policy in 35 plus years.

    The Columbia Bugle ??
    @ColumbiaBugle
    ·
    2h
    Peter Thiel Praising President Trump’s Foreign Policy:

    “I think it is one of the signature achievements of the
    @realDonaldTrump
    presidency has been to not get us into all these insane foreign entanglements, and to dial this back.” #AmericaFirst

  21. jason says:

    Now Kobach is trying to work his electoral magic in the extremely critical race for Senate. Naturally Schumer and Mikey approve.”

    I am sure mnw will approve too.

    He certainly was in favor of handing the governor’s race to a liberal Democrat, why not go for broke and hand over a senate seat too.

  22. jason says:

    insane foreign entanglements,”

    Translation: protecting our vital interests throughout the world.

  23. jason says:

    There is nothing “conservative” about protectionism and isolationism.

    Nada. Zilch. Nothing.

  24. jason says:

    I think the Squad thinks all “women of color” are communists.

  25. Tina says:

    When will the words “the squad” become “racist?”

  26. jason says:

    wes, be prepared… if you think running a deadender moron like Kobach and putting a safe senate seat at risk is stupid you must be “against the primary system”.

  27. jason says:

    Anyone notice the Epstein-Trump story died so quickly?

    Here is the anwwer:

    https://www.redstate.com/bonchie/2019/07/16/jeffrey-epstein-story-sure-died-quick-death-reason-obvious/

  28. jason says:

    Imagine the media frenzy if it was Trump who had flown around with Epstein 26 times and frequented pedophile island and the Manhattan den.

    Bill Clinton? Zzzzzzz……

  29. Bitterlaw says:

    I had an interesting Facebook fight with people over Congressman Brian Fitzpatrick – Bucks County, PA. We all disagreed with his vote on Trump’s tweets. The argument was over replacing him. Most of them said he should be replaced by a Real Republican. I asked how that was going to happen since “Real Republicans” can’t beat him in primaries and Democrats can’t beat him in a General Election. They fell back by saying it would be better to elect a Democrat. Ummmm. No. Maybe I should invite them to visit HHR so NYC and Tina will have new friends.

  30. Wes says:

    This is manifestly NOT how to word a sentence about a pedophile and a President:

    Bill Clinton, who not only traveled many times with Epstein, but was also fingered on his “pedophile island” in the Caribbean by a victim.

  31. Bitterlaw says:

    Damn, Wes. I can never unread that sentence.

  32. Wes says:

    How do you think I felt, Bitter?

  33. Cash Cow TM says:

    This outside work in the hot sun is for the birds.

    I am looking into unionizing against the man (Walt).

    AND…

    DRUDGE
    “Musk wants to implant chips into human brains…”

    Walt said make his chips ruffled barbeque ones.

  34. Cash Cow TM says:

    Some monkey news…

    DRUDGE

    STUDY: CHIMPANZEES BOND OVER WATCHING MOVIE TOGETHER…

  35. Wes says:

    Cash Cow now wants to start Animal Farm. Be careful of Napoleon, CC.

  36. jason says:

    I hope Cash Cow has better luck rebelling against chores than Walt did.

  37. jason says:

    At Redstate, catchy new campaign slogan for Trump.

    “If you like your President, you can keep your President”.

    The problem is, very few people actually LIKE Trump.

  38. jason says:

    I will not put a Trump sticker on my car, but I am considering the “Socialism Sucks” I have seen around here.

    Of course, I wouldn’t drive into Philadelphia with it, I am sure the locals would be offended.

  39. Marco Rubio says:

    There is no rathitht bone in the Prethident’s body!

    The 4 ugly woman communithts can thuck my dick!

    Thank you for your thupport!

  40. jason says:

    Hey Marco
    GFY
    Tks

  41. jason says:

    Hey Cash Cow
    Supposedly in the 1762 Walt had a goat that refused to do yard work.
    He donated it to the village for the ritual sacrifice and subsequent feast.
    But I am sure Walt has evolved so I wouldn’t worry.

  42. jason says:

    They must all be racists.

    Either that or they got tired of the MSM deciding what is racist or not.

    “Almost nine-in-ten Republican voters say they support President Trump’s comments directed at some Democrats this week in which he said they should “go back and help fix the totally broken and crime infested places from which they came.”

    They must have polled fake Republican Amoral Scumbag so it was not unanimous.

  43. Victrc says:

    Seems the media isn’t quite giving up on trump Epstein. NBC is running a story about them being at a party 25 years ago. That’s what they have…a party 25 years ago where trump (who was single) said a girl looked hot.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/tape-shows-donald-trump-jeffrey-epstein-discussing-women-1992-party-n1030686

  44. jason says:

    BTW, if Trump had said legal immigrants should go back from where they came from because he disagreed with their politics (like NYC said to me) I would agree it was racist. But that is not what he said. His message was if you think your ideology is so great, go use it in the problem ridden places you came from and THEN come back to solve our problems.

    I tell the Marxist-Leninist troll Proud Obamacon all the time to go to his socialist paradises of Cuba and Venezuela and North Korea, that is not racist.

  45. jason says:

    That’s what they have…a party 25 years ago where trump (who was single) said a girl looked hot.”

    Dang, luckily Bitter didn’t win his race for congress.

    He is married and has being saying here for over a decade that Kate Upton is hot.

    What a scandal.

  46. dblaikie says:

    The pithy Sen. from La. John Kennedy has the quote of the week. In speaking about the 4 sister heads of the Democratic Party, he says this: “They are reason you have put instructions on a shampoo bottle.” Could be the quote of the month.

  47. dblaikie says:

    Regarding this weeks silly debate I can still hear my Dad, combat WW2 veteran, telling people who were considering avoiding the draft during the Vietnam era (I was in elementary school), “if you can’t defend and support this country, then leave.”

  48. dblaikie says:

    It is amazing to me how the news narrative is changing as the talking heads realize that the “squad” are toxic to most Americans. I don’t know if Trump did it on purpose or not, but the result is that after last night’s sad vote the dems have become the party Omar and Ocasio and Talib and the other one (she needs a media expert for folks to remember her.

  49. dblaikie says:

    One last post, for me the saddest part of last night was John Lewis. First of all he is a true hero. His stand as a leader of the freedom riders took huge grit, faith and courage.

    But since he began his tenure in Congress he is eager to condemn any Republican Administration. Who can forget his words in 1995 about the Contract with America, “They’re coming for our children. They’re coming for the poor. They’re coming for the sick, the elderly and the disabled.” Lewis’s comment paraphrased a famous passage by Rev. Martin Niemöller, who was in the resistance against the Nazis.

    Time after time we have heard stuff like that from him and with his background it has authority. But sadly that authority has been undercut by the political, one sided nature of his words. Omar is a known and obvious anti semite — not a word about her from him.

    Well after last night’s speech I have had enough. If I could speak to Rev. Lewis I would give him these words from the Savior we both serve and have dedicated our lives to, “Before you pick the splinter out of someone else’s eyes pick out the log in your own.”

  50. lisab says:

    i’m in my favourite lesbian coffeehouse (in minnesota, that is)

    it’s a little quiet

  51. Wes says:

    How can any place LisaB frequents be remotely quiet??

  52. Wes says:

    Interesting factoid about John Lewis:

    When Paul Coverdell died in 2000, Lewis explicitly told them-Governor Roy Barnes (D-GA) he (Lewis) would “gladly” accept an appointment to replace Coverdell.

    However, Barnes realized Lewis would lose decisively in the required special election. This, Zell Miller got the appointment. Miller crushed former Senator Mack Mattingly in November and subsequently retired in 2004, having current Senator Johnny Isakson replace him in 2005.

  53. lisab says:

    now you are planning to eventually have some lesbians in your lesbian coffeehouse?

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=LZrUOQnv8xk

  54. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    My coffee of choice is from Black Rifle Coffee Company of Salt Lake City. Veteran owned and operated.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TatlZ4Dripc

  55. lisab says:

    i saw jim bakker, of jim and tammy fame last night … i was up late flipping through the channels

    wow! has he fallen on hard times. first, he is now bald and has grown a beard to compensate i guess, but that was not the bad part … everyone gets older

    he supposedly has given up prosperity gospel for an apocalyptic … the end of the world is nigh … gospel

    yet … he was selling vitamin powders …

    tammy faye we miss you!

  56. DW says:

    Alonso. 474 feet.

  57. jason says:

    That IS good coffee SDC. Not for sissies.

  58. jason says:

    The Dems didn’t go for impeachment..

    Pity…

  59. Wes says:

    Al Green tried to get Trump impeached for “bigotry”—which, last I checked, is no criminal offense—and lost by a 95-332 vote.

    Trump was right to blast this for the idiocy it was:

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1030791

    That probably pretty much dooms any further impeachment attempts.

  60. Wes says:

    Oddly enough, Justin Amash voted to table despite his rhetoric. That tells me Amash is likely running for re-election and trying to softpedal his previous stupidity.

  61. jason says:

    I think Amash voted to censure Trump yesterday.

    So he continues being stupid.

  62. jason says:

    Let’s remember this impeachment vote was not for obstruction of justice, it was for “racism”.

    Even Amash is not that crazy.

  63. jason says:

    Amash made the point that Congress was dysfunctional and partisan and that he was above that. It’s a load of crap but that is what he said was his reasoning.

    So he would come across as even more of a moron if he says that and then votes to impeach Trump for “racist statements”.

  64. jason says:

    The bad news is 95 Democrats voted to impeach the President for “bigotry in office”.

    Scary.

  65. Bitterlaw says:

    Jason – It is scary. Almost as scary as the fact that Alabama Republican primary voters wanted Roy Moore to run for the Senate.

  66. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    Despite Trump’s earlier inane comments, the White House today supported the military in refusing to provide F-35 jets to Turkey.

    “WASHINGTON — The U.S. has removed Turkey from the F-35 joint strike fighter program, and Turkey will lose its production work on the jet by March 2020, following its acceptance of the S-400 Russian-made air defense system last Friday.
    However, a top Pentagon official would not close the door on Turkey rejoining the program in some form, should it reverse the decision to buy the S-400.
    The White House issued a statement Wednesday confirming the move, which Washington had threatened for months.
    “Turkey’s decision to purchase Russian S-400 air defense systems renders its continued involvement with the F-35 impossible,” the White House statement read. “The F-35 cannot coexist with a Russian intelligence collection platform that will be used to learn about its advanced capabilities.”
    * * *
    “Turkey cannot field a Russian intelligence collection platform in proximity to where the F-35 program makes repairs, and houses the F-35,” Lord said. “Much of the F-35?s strength lies in its stealth capabilities, so the ability to detect those capabilities would jeopardize the long term security of the F-35 program. We seek only to protect the long term security of the F-35 program.”

    It cost $1.5 trillion dollars to developer the F-35 as a stealth fighter, so it is good they are taking this step to protect the technology.

  67. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    59. They put out some hilarious videos. Here is one showing how difficult it is to be a law-abiding criminal in California because of the state’s gun laws.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BYVqmBaqgPU

  68. jason says:

    Delivering Turkey on a silver platter to the Russians is stupid.

  69. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    70. Possibly, but delivering technology that took $1.5 trillion to develop to the Russians is not a smart move.

    Frankly, I think Erdogen, who provided support for ISIS, and armed fighters shooting at Americans and our Kurdish allies, cannot be trusted. He recently lost badly in some local elections, including in major Turkish cities. I believe he may be gone soon — the U.S. has no reason to coddle up to him now.

  70. Bitterlaw says:

    Jason – Undercutting allies and trashing NATO has been the cornerstone of American military policy for…ummm….days. NYC can justify it.

  71. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    We were discussing the California primary on the previous thread; here is a poll that came out from Quinnipiac.

    Harris 23%
    Biden 21%
    Sanders 18%
    Warren 16%
    Buttigieg 3%
    Yang 2%
    O’Rourke, Booker, Castro, Inslee 1%

    It is a horse race. Biden is falling, but he is higher on the list than I thought he would still be. Am also surprised Warren is not higher.

    Some of the most interesting info in the poll were answers to other question”

    “Looking today at candidates’ qualities, California Democrats say:
    26 percent that Biden would be the best leader, with 18 percent for Harris, 17 percent for Sanders and 14 percent for Warren;
    28 percent that Warren has the best policy ideas, with 20 percent for Sanders, 11 percent for Biden and 9 percent for Harris;
    45 percent that Biden has the best chance of beating President Donald Trump, with 12 percent for Sanders, 11 percent for Harris and 8 percent for Warren.

    Among all California voters, President Donald Trump gets a negative 35 – 60 percent job approval rating, compared to a negative 30 – 64 percent April 10.

    Republicans approve 87 – 9 percent of the job Trump is doing, the only listed party, gender, racial, regional or age group to approve. Trump’s scores by region range from a negative 42 – 53 percent inland and in the Valley to a negative 21 – 74 percent in the Bay Area.

    Harris gets a 45 – 34 percent job approval rating. This compares to a 47 – 30 percent approval rating April 11. Today, negative scores are 11 – 69 percent among Republicans and 36 – 42 percent among independent voters. Democrats approve 79 – 9 percent.

    “Golden State Democrats are excited about Sen. Kamala Harris as a presidential candidate, but all voters are hardly excited about the job she’s doing in Washington,” Malloy said.

    House Speaker Nancy Pelosi gets a negative 41 – 48 percent job approval rating. Negative grades are 13 – 81 percent among Republicans and 34 – 56 percent among independent voters. Democrats approve 69 – 24 percent.”

  72. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    72. Bitter, can you name me any military or political leader other than Trump who indicated he was supported providing F-35s to Turkey? European allies are against it also. Protecting the 1.5 trillion dollar stealth technology that F-35 have is far more important than kissing up to Erdogan. This is the second time Trump has attempted to kiss up to Erdogan; the last time resulted in Gen. Mattis resigning as defense secretary.

  73. jason says:

    Bitterlaw says:
    July 17, 2019 at 9:13 pm

    Jason – Undercutting allies and trashing NATO has been the cornerstone of American military policy for…ummm….days. NYC can justify it.”

    Yep, why change now.

    The isolationists and protectionists will be happy.

    And of course, saying that selling weapons to a NATO ally is “kissing up to Erdogan” is asinine.

    The alliance has survived “Erdogans” in the past, and if not for the isolationists, should survive it in the future.

  74. jason says:

    Among all California voters, President Donald Trump gets a negative 35 – 60 percent job approval rating”

    Trump only got 31% of the vote in 2016 in CA, so despite all the negativity, 35% seems pretty amazing.

    You might make a reasonable assumption that if he gets 35% in CA he will be very competitive in 2020.

  75. janz says:

    The F-35s are no longer going to Turkey now that the first parts of the Russian missile defense system has been delivered to them. IMO, trump was leaving his options open until this happened as an incentive for Turkey to reconsider buying it’s defense system from Russia, and instead deal with the US.

  76. jason says:

    That is the big problem with Trump’s trade policy and a lot of his foreign policy.

    It’s all reactive, there is no thought given to the long term.

    It’s classic look at a tree, not the forest.

  77. jason says:

    as an incentive for Turkey to reconsider buying”

    Ah yes, here we go, the “negotiating stance” argument.

    But shhhhhhh, Erdogan will never think of that, just like the Chinese are too dumb to see through Trump’s “negotiating stance” on tariffs.

    Zzzzzzzzzz…..

  78. jason says:

    Send Scherie Murray a check.

    She probably won’t win, but she should have some money to harass AOC.

    https://scheriemurray.com/

  79. janz says:

    Trump’s pattern is to negotiate. I think it used to be a surprising tactic. However, now it’s been used too often to get the results it once did.

    There’s around 4 people showing interest in running against AOC on the R ticket. Sherie Murray is the latest one. Who knows..I’m going to send her money and cross my fingers.

  80. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    81, Trump has very little choice. Congress is united against selling F-35s to Turkey, if they buy the Russian missile system. Congress has already passed a bill requiring Turkey be sanctioned if it happens. I do not know of one member of congress who supports the sale.

    General Tod Wolters, NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe: “We are not interested in sharing the capabilities of our F-35 with Russia.”

    Unfortunately, some posters are trying to tie this issue in with the issue of tariffs — there is no relationship.

  81. Tgca says:

    Ochenta y tres Bebe!

  82. MikeKS says:

    Biden’s problem is when the field consolidates. I don’t sense he’s everyone’s 2nd choice.

  83. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    Since his controversial “go home” tweets, Trump’s popularity in the Rasmussen poll has risen from 46% to 50%.

    It now is 50%-48% favorable — 38% strongly support Trump; 40% strongly oppose.

    Trump has succeeded in making the radical “squad” the face of the Democratic party. The Democrats fell all over themselves in trying to respond effectively, and ultimately collapsed back into civil war. The liberal press served as Trump’s patsies, and provided Trump millions of dollars worth of free publicity. And Trump is probably grinning and planning his next twitter strike.

  84. Phil says:

    SD, that California poll pretty much confirms what you said in the last thread….a tight four or five person race where the delegates are divided pretty equally. In other words, if that happens no one breaks out of the pack and the primary won’t be a big boon to anyone – it will be on to the next primary.

  85. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    87. Agree Phil, it is likely all the candidates will pick up delegates, with no one candidate standing out — could be a wash. Which hurts Harris because she should do well in her home state.

    Its early however, so things could change.

    Also, independents can vote in the Democratic party; about 26% of California voters are registered as independents. A lot of Republicans have become independents, and they cannot vote in the Republican primary, so may request a Democratic ballot. That creates a wild card. But a candidate has to get at least 15% of the vote to get delegates, so the lesser known candidates may get shut out.

    I live in a Democratic area, yet so far have seen almost no campaigning. Its early, but still it is surprising. My Democratic friends are all over the board, and many have switched from one candidate to another.

    What caught my eye about the California poll was that Trump’s support rose from 30% to 35%. I wonder if that is real.

  86. jason says:

    Bill Gates no longer second richest man in the world.

    My sincerest condolences.

    I can relate because I remember how bad I felt once when I lost over $2000 on an investment.

  87. jason says:

    Unfortunately, some posters are trying to tie this issue in with the issue of tariffs — there is no relationship.”

    Hello?

    Sure there is. Trump is a protectionist AND and an isolationist.

    The “relationship” is obvious.

  88. jason says:

    Trump’s pattern is to negotiate. I think it used to be a surprising tactic. However, now it’s been used too often to get the results it once did.”

    Sorry, I don’t think anyone was ever “surprised”.

  89. Wes says:

    What’s sad is that RRHers supporting Trump have to crow about a spate of polls showing him at 44%.

    A President capable of exhibiting a modicum of self-control would be at least in narrowly positive territory and really give his supporters something to hype.

  90. Wes says:

    Let me get this straight:

    Janz thinks Donald Trump—former businessman and author of Art of the Deal—surprised people by negotiating with them.

    I like you, Janz, but this statement made no sense.

  91. jason says:

    “The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 47% of all ‘Likely U.S. Voters’ think Trump is a racist, down slightly from 50% in January 2018. Slightly more (49%) disagree and say his opponents are accusing him of racism only for political gain, up from 43% in the earlier survey,” said a pre-release analysis of the poll posted at 10:30 a.m. Wednesday.

    Other features in the analysis:

    The partisan division of opinion couldn’t be any clearer. While 80% of Democrats believe the president is a racist, 85% of Republicans think the racism charges by his opponents are politically motivated. Voters not affiliated with either major party are evenly divided on the question.

    Thirty-two percent (32%) of Democrats, however, say it’s racist for any white politician to criticize the political views of a politician of color. That’s a view shared by just 16% of both GOP and unaffiliated voters.”

    So basically, Dems think Trump is racist, Rs thinks it’s a crock, and everyone else is divided.

  92. jason says:

    What’s sad is that RRHers supporting Trump have to crow about a spate of polls showing him at 44%.”

    Yeah, wes, not a great number.

    But remember Trump is facing a 95% negative MSM on the nightly news, cable news, print media.

    You might make the point that if the MSM gave him any credit on his positive accomplishments he would be over 50%.

  93. Wes says:

    Ever heard of Ronald Reagan, Jason?

    The media referred to him as President Ray-Gun, implied he would start World War III, and referred to him as an amiable dunce.

    It didn’t matter because Reagan carried himself well, projected an appealing image to Americans, and didn’t drop to the level of infantile feuds with lower-level political adversaries.

    After suffering a dip in popularity in 1982 because of the ongoing recession at the time, Reagan rebounded and left office with a 64% popularity rating.

    I don’t buy the narrative that Trump is unpopular strictly because of the media. Certainly they have that agenda, but Trump himself rarely acts presidential and far too frequently comes across as a petulant child rather than a legitimate potentate of the world’s greatest country.

    He’s his own worst enemy. That far more than the media accounts for his low popularity among the electorate.

  94. Bitterlaw says:

    The MSM is extremely negative towards Trump. Most people who are influenced by the MSM already hate Trump. Both can be true.

  95. VictrC says:

    Jason and Wes…. as in anything there are three sides to the story.

    To quote Bitter…both of you can be right.

    To a degree Trump’s unpopularity is partly because of the insane amount of negative coverage. Reagan and Bush were also lambasted by the press, coined “dunces” by them, but there was less 24/7 coverage then (at least in the early years of Bush) so it wasn’t so in your face. The level of vitriol also did not approach what it is with Trump.

    With that said, Trump could EASILY temper the rhetoric and see his approval rating climb some, though I doubt it would grow very high. In today’s highly partisan world I think there are limits to how high an approval rating an R could gain. That said, Trump could so something as simple as this:

    Last night when his supporters were chanting “send her back” he could have easily said, “look, thats not really what I said or wanted. I told her to come back when she fixed things. We want her and all legal immigrants here. What we don’t want is someone who openly hates most Americans and complains about how bad America is. So how about instead of send her back, we do it the American way and “vote her out.”

    If he had done this he would have blown people away, gained some supporters, tamped down the controversy and taken fuel away from his detractors.

    But as Wes and others have said so often…he just can’t help himself.

    So to conclude….both can be true

  96. Phil says:

    Do not disregard what Trump has going for him. Namely, his opponents. Do I need to list their out of the mainstream nutty positions? Yeah, Wes, Trump is his own worst enemy. So is the other side. Free healthcare for illegals? Really? If I wanted to win back working class voters in the rust belt I do not believe i’d Be touting this nonsense. The other side is crazy. I won’t bother to list the numerous other nutty positions. The list is long and it’s whackoville. They are opening the door for Trump. They can’t help themselves. They are radical leftists. Hard to hide when you are going around babbling about things like reparations.

  97. VictrC says:

    Phil

    Couldn’t agree more. The far left extremists are doing more to re-elect Trump than any volunteer, donation or Trump himself.

    The saddest part of it all is that they actually believe they are moderate. Got into a squabble (I think youre a Texan as well…I am adopted Texan) with someone down here the other day. He went on and on about the R;s having no soul and how he wishes the party were like Justice Stevens, who he said was a real Republican, despite the fact that he was the leader of the Liberal wing of the court.

    They actually think that their ideology is moderate, high taxes, abortion on demand, governemtn control of energy and healthcare, censorship of opposing opinions. They think its all justified to stop the far right.

    They will lose becuase they think they are righteous, because they think everyone should think like they do becuase they are reasonable and they honestly believe that Trump is giong to lose 40 states. They can’t fathom how anyone is voting for him instead of them and their policies.

  98. dblaikie says:

    It is starting to be deja view all over again. Polls that show Trump below 50%, people (smart people) claiming that Trump is going to implode with his tweets. First of all, Trump demonstrated the same frustrating personality in 2016. Who can forget his railing against the hispanic judge, the unfortunate words about the gold star family, the hollywood extra tapes, his over the top statement that he preferred hero’s who weren’t prisoners. Time after time I heard many of you saying there is no way for him — too unpopular. But funny thing and very unscientific he kept on having these huge rallies. The only difference between 2016 and now is that then you were branded as a deplorable stupid and ignorant person for voting for him and now you are just an evil and deplorable and a racist for voting for him.

    In the midst of this I would like to raise just a couple of points. The first is that people, in the end, will vote for their self-interest. Liking or not liking is secondary. I have said this before, I know that some here disagree, but in the end there are countless tens of thousands of people who don’t like Trump, would never give him their approval in a poll, but in the voting both they will vote their self interest or just stay home.

    Second 45% is not a bad number for Trump because of the location of the electorate. Trump is at about 30% in California and New York. Not much better in Mass. and Con. and RI. That is bad for the democratic party as long as we have the electoral college. Just a reminder in 2016 Trump won with 46% of the vote.

    It is plain folly not to say that Trump has the advantage — especially with the positions the dems are embracing. He could still lose. Something could happen. But right now this election is Trump’s to lose.

    Now go ahead and tell me how stupid I am. It is OK. Heck I survived MD pounding me as a stupid idiot, and some folks who still post here thought he was right! But like I say, it is ok. I am used to it.

  99. jason says:

    he MSM is extremely negative towards Trump. Most people who are influenced by the MSM already hate Trump. Both can be true.”

    Not so sure. MSNBC yes. NYT and WAPO yes. CNN yes. You have to be a moron not to see these people are partisan hacks devoted to character assassination and group think.

    But a lot of people still watch network news, CBS, ABC, NBC nightly news. Many still read local newspapers. I think a lot of people who aren’t partisans and not that tuned into politics could be influenced by the marked left wing narrative.

  100. jason says:

    dblaikie, I thought you were way too optimistic in 2016, you were right, I was wrong.

    I thought you were way too optimistic in 2018, you were wrong and I was right.

    I think you are way too optimistic for 2020.

    It’s a tie breaker.

  101. dblaikie says:

    Jason you and I go way back on HHR. We have had our ups and downs. You thought I was crazy to think that Ben Carson had a chance. You were right about that. During 2016 you were one of the few who didn’t pile on the MD train even though you disagreed with my take. Which frankly that what it always is — an educated (sometimes) take or guess. I respect you a great deal. So I take, your take, and I won’t reject it out of hand. In the last five years I have learned to be less dogmatic. So Jason, it is tie breaker and I don’t deny that you may be right.

    However, am I right in thinking that you don’t dismiss Trump’s chances (like Wes) as being close to zero? Have a great day!

  102. dblaikie says:

    But Jason, even though I respect and appreciate your love of single malt, and all things meat, I still stand by my above post. You may be right, but I think I am right — just to be clear and not squishy.

  103. Wes says:

    DB, although I profoundly disagree with your analysis, I respect you. I expect Trump to lose simply because he’s never ceased being Donald Trump the Reality Host and never fully become Donald Trump the President.

    It’d be like expecting Dave Navarro or a Kardashian’ to win re-election after a razor-thin victory against a supremely flawed opponent.

    I’m voting for Trump next year as I’ve noted before. I just don’t see how a never popular President who can’t get his numbers up despite a solid economy is somehow going to win against an opponent who won’t have the baggage of his previous adversary.

    Phil is right in saying Dems are hurting themselves with their far-left idiocy. The problem is that Trump is now the incumbent, and elections hinge on the incumbent’s popularity. The last Presidents to go into their election years with routinely low approval numbers like what Trump has were Carter and GHWB.

    Neither of them made survived despite reservations about their challengers.

  104. Wes says:

    If Trump could allay the reservations about him by growing as President as Reagan did when segments of the populace didn’t trust an actor as President, then I’d say Trump would win and expand slightly on his 2016 showing. He has no chance of a 1972 or 1984-style landslide, but a reasonably comfortable reelection wouldn’t be inconceivable.

    However, he sits on a consistently low approval rating with energized opposition. That doesn’t bode well for his reelection even if Dems by their nature are limiting their ceiling against him.

  105. jason says:

    However, am I right in thinking that you don’t dismiss Trump’s chances (like Wes) as being close to zero? Have a great day!”

    No, you are right, I don’t dismiss Trump’s chances at all, it is entirely possible he will win. But I don’t agree he has an “advantage”, I think the Dems have the advantage until they definitively throw it away.

    I think the main problem with wes’ prediction is that it assumes everything will be the same as it is now in November 2020. Same polls, same favorables, etc. and it also assumes the Dems will not be crazy enough to nominate a moonbat, that they will go with Biden. I also disagree that Biden doesn’t have a lot of baggage, he does, and it has cost him before and might cost him again. Biden is a deeply flawed candidate, and he could self destruct in a nano-second. It is a measure on how weak the Dem field is that he is the only one considered “sane”.

    So put me on the fence somewhere between dblaikie and wes.

  106. lisab says:

    predict it has the race in a three way heat

    biden at 23 cents
    harris at 22 cents
    warren at 22 cents

    sanders is at 13 cents
    buttigieg is at 12

  107. lisab says:

    i cannot see either harris or warren beating trump

    certainly not warren

    can harris carry the midwest?

  108. Phil says:

    Harris or Warren beat Trump?

    I don’t believe so either.

    Both are not likable and you can’t go as far left and beat Trump as these two. The idea thatTrump is so beatable that you can run as far left as you please is something that most buy in the left wing bubbles of SF, Seattle, or Boston. The fact that we have some never Trump Republicans on here that buy it is puzzling to me. I guess they hate Trump so much it is coloring their political judgement.

  109. lisab says:

    will trump have more or less money than last time?

    will trump have more or less republican support than last time?

    will any dem candidate have as much money as hillary?

    will any dem candidate get as much black vote as hillary? (harris maybe)

    unless something changes, the republicans will have more base support and money in 2020 and the dems will probably have less base support and money …

    which could certainly change, but the current dem candidates are weak,

    the fight will be for the middle 15% and every dem candidate wants to raise taxes substantially

    now if the fight will be for the middle, would you rather be the political manager for trump or harris?

    i think the dems NEED a moderate biden

    but they WANT a leftist warren

    and i’ve worked with enough addicts to know that what people want trumps what people need almost every time

  110. jason says:

    i think the dems NEED a moderate biden”

    They won’t get it.

    If Biden wins the nomination it will be as a far leftist.

  111. Walt says:

    Cow tells me his comment is in moderation…
    So I will try to post the Cow statement.

    Cash Cow TM says:
    Your comment is awaiting moderation. This is a preview, your comment will be visible after it has been approved.
    July 18, 2019 at 4:34 pm
    Walt had me dig holes and plant 7 bushes today.
    Ain’t no topsoil here, ‘cept a thin layer that makes for a lush green grass. The rest is hard as hell shale.

    I will not be burying any of my money in the back yard here.

    I am whooped cow.

    walt could not do it. He has been beat down.
    He has lost about 20 pounds since the first of the year.

  112. jason says:

    i cannot see either harris or warren beating trump”

    I can’t.

    But I couldn’t see Trump winning the nomination or the election in 2016.

    If the election were held today, I think Trump would win easily against either of them.

  113. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    Were in a much more shrill and vicious age with social media. If Reagan were running now he would be under brutal attack — claims he was senile, not mentally competent, a racist, had been involved in crooked activity, would be blasted daily on social media and in the bias press. They would bring up his early public drunkenness conviction when young, and a female student from his Illinois high school might have surfaced accusing him of sexual harassment. It would have been ugly.

    Unlike other Republicans, Trump is willing to fight back. He has effectively manipulated social media and the bias press, and managed to take control of the agenda. People will support a fighter, not the shaking milquetoasts that the mainstream Republicans have become. If you fighting with pigs, your going to get dirty.

  114. Wes says:

    SDC lives in an alternate universe where Reagan wasn’t the subject of attacks from the media and celebrities and never had to fend off attacks on him.

    Such must be the life of a person who seems to think the US became a country in 2016.

  115. Wes says:

    Let’s see…

    The rock band Genesis made a music video where Reagan was so senile he accidentally launched a nuclear weapon when calling for a nurse and started World War III, but, no, the Left never made any attempt to demonize him.

    Words used to describe Reagan included “warmonger,” anti-poor,” “amiable dunce,” “unfit for office,” “Ray-gun,” “homophobe”—and those are just some of the milder epithets.

    Of course Reagan never once had to deal with hostile media and public figures. No way. Didn’t happen.

    🙄

  116. Robbie says:

    Me, a normal person – “Send her back” is a disgusting chant

    Sycophantic Trump worshippers – but muh Antifa

  117. Wes says:

    Biden is definitely a leftist, Jason. After 1996, his Senate voting record shifted further and further left.

    He just doesn’t come across as a crazy leftist as Sanders and Warren do.

  118. Robbie says:

    jason says:
    July 18, 2019 at 4:37 pm
    i cannot see either harris or warren beating trump”
    I can’t.
    But I couldn’t see Trump winning the nomination or the election in 2016.
    If the election were held today, I think Trump would win easily against either of them.

    – A president with a 44% approval rating (the single best predictor of president’s re-election support) is anything but a favorite to win.

    Just as Trump’s low JA in Summer 2017 and 2018 clearly signaled Republicans were in big trouble and likely to lose the House in 2018, Trump’s low JA now signals he is extremely vulnerable in 2020 and a clear underdog right now.

    If Trump’s JA reaches 48% or higher, then the equation changes. But a 44% JA is a recipe for a significant loss that drags down the Senate as well.

  119. lisab says:

    it was a different time back when reagan was around, the media was much more evenly split, although still dem leaning

    the Oregonian, the Seattle Times, and the chicago sun times all endorsed reagan at least once

    that would never happen today

  120. Phil says:

    I guess the question is can Harris or Warren win the nomination. You bet they can. When the field gets narrowed down towards the end the Sanders people will go to a Harris or Warren. They aren’t going to Biden for sure.

  121. Phil says:

    Again, things like healthcare for illegals and reparations for blacks aren’t going to play with working class families. Never Trumpers like Nicolle Wallace, Anna Navarro, George Will etc think working class whites are going to just ignore those things because Trump is so awful. It’s projection.

  122. dblaikie says:

    Wes, like you I disagree with your analysis. Time will tell my friend. Just remember four words: Highland Park single malt.

  123. janz says:

    I don’t see the alternate universe comment about SDC being accurate. SDC’s comparison of Reagan vs Trump’s battles with the media are legitimate, especially when recognizing how social media has expanded and become even more lethal in the current age of politics.

    Just the acknowledgment of how google and Facebook manipulated recent elections in favor of dem candidates, via Dr. Robert Epstein’s Congressional testimony and recent radio interviews, have demonstrated the uphill battle trump has ahead of him. Epstein, a search engine specialist, has studied search engine data in the 2016 election showing that 2.6 million votes were gained by HRC by manipulating the placement of articles when a candidate was googled. In the 2018 midterms, he calculated over 4 million votes were influenced by search engine bias. And, in the upcoming 2020 election, Epstein projects that upwards to 15 million votes could be effected – especially with undecided voters – by simply deciding which articles will occupy the slots on the first page of a search. According to research, 50% of people only read the first 2 articles, and 93% don’t go beyond the first page of an internet search. This kind of social mediation bias was compared to an Orwellian kind of mind control.

    So, I think the oppressive bias trump faces is, hands down, greater than Reagan.

  124. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    121. The level of intensity now of social media and level of attack by the press upon Trump are unprecedented. Trump brought a lot of it upon himself, but social media is brutal across the partisan spectrum, and cable TV stations are clearly partisan now and make no pretense of impartiality. Things have become very course and vulgar now, which old style journalists themselves often point out.

  125. Wes says:

    I guess Montanans are the second stupidest people in the universe after West Virginians:

    https://www.breitbart.com/clips/2019/07/18/dem-sen-tester-to-2020-dems-dont-run-away-punch-him-in-the-face/

    Then again Trump could have let Ryan Zinke stay in the House and challenge Tester rather than tap him for the Cabinet.

  126. Wes says:

    SDC, the United States is a country that’s existed for 243 years. We have had brutal election cycles in the past. For example, the first contested presidential election in 1796 featured salacious reports about Adams’ and Jefferson’s personal lives rivaling anything Clinton dealt with during the Lewinsky scandal. Hell, in 1884, Republicans tried to derail Grover Cleveland by calling him a frequenter of whores and publicizing across multiple newspapers his admission to having fathered a child out of wedlock.

    Pretending Trump is the victim of something the media have never done before is nothing but willfully blinding oneself to reality. The media may be more nakedly partisan now than during Reagan’s time and may have more outlets to attack Trump with, but this is nothing different from what’s gone on in the past.

    The difference is in how the Presidents deal with it. Reagan went out of his way to present a very different face to the people from the media caricature. Trump is a thin-skinned solipsist who one day takes down a negative stereotype and the next day reinforces it.

    If Trump would reserve his barbs for idiocy like yesterday’s impeachment vote and otherwise go over the media’s heads to tout the multifarious achievements of his Administration, he would be in a much stronger position regardless of the caustic media vitriol directed at him.

  127. Wes says:

    Hannibal was the best general Carthage ever had. He routed Rome on numerous occasions. Unfortunately Hannibal let the Romans bog him down by fighting with them at every minor skirmish. This wore him down and led to his climactic defeat at Zama.

    Trump reminds me of Hannibal. He’s so eager to fight he does so at every opportunity, thus losing sight of the big picture and leaving his enemies with the capacity to win the war.

    For that reason, I expect Trump to face his Zama in 15 1/2 months.

  128. jason says:

    Abortions are for men too.

    Eugene Gu, MD:

    “It’s a scientific and medical fact that men can get pregnant and also have abortions. Trans men and non-binary individuals are human beings who deserve to be acknowledged by society. They choose their own identity—not me, not you, not any doctor, and certainly not any politician.”

  129. jason says:

    If Trump’s JA reaches 48% or higher, then the equation changes. But a 44% JA is a recipe for a significant loss that drags down the Senate as well.”

    LOL, and Amoral Scumbag wonders why he is considered a joke.

    It used to be 45% (when Trump was under 40%) but now that Trump is at 44% the goal posts moved to 48%.

    Zzzzzzzzz……

  130. dblaikie says:

    Once again Trump derangement syndrome is driving the dems and all the talking heads into extreme over each. You can label Trump a racist, Ice officers Nazis, have no reaction to the violent actions of Antifa but just one chant from a small group in a rally brings howls of rage.

  131. jason says:

    Amoral Scumbag very offended by “send her back” to an anti-semitic racist communist who won’t even condemn Al Qaeda.

    “Pigs in a blanket, fry them like bacon”?

    He has no problem with it.

  132. jason says:

    Trump reminds me of Hannibal. He’s so eager to fight he does so at every opportunity, thus losing sight of the big picture and leaving his enemies with the capacity to win the war.”

    Not a bad analogy. If Trump loses his failure to pick battles worth fighting will certainly be a factor.

  133. DW says:

    Pelosi leads the house dems in a party-line vote for crippling inflation and the laying off of millions of the poorest workers in our country. They voted for doubling the minimum wage to $15 an hour.

    Of course its DOA in the senate. Should it pass, companies would have to close, or pass the costs on to consumers. So the results would be huge unemployment, or inflation, but likely both.

    The real reason for the bill was so they can run ads saying how Republicans are only for the rich, and they hate poor people.

  134. jason says:

    Just as Trump’s low JA in Summer 2017 and 2018 clearly signaled Republicans were in big trouble and likely to lose the House in 2018,”

    Didn’t Amoral Scumbag say that Trump’s low approval rating in 2016 was going to cost the GOP 7 seats?

    And I believe he also said the GOP would lose seats in the Senate in 2018.

    You have to admit his selective memory is excellent.

  135. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    131. “It used to be 45% (when Trump was under 40%) but now that Trump is at 44% the goal posts moved to 48%.”

    I noticed that too Jason. He did move the goal posts. Likewise, troll predicted Democratic gains in the Senate in 2018 (and in 2016), and the Republicans picked up seats.

    Compare Trump’s midterm results with Bill Clinton and Obama first mid-terms; both of who were re-elected two years later:

    Clinton 1994 –lost of 54 House seats and 8 Senate seats;
    Obama 2010 — lost of 63 House seats and 6 Senate seats;

  136. jason says:

    Omar suggested that Jewish Americans are not patriots if they support Israel.

    “Then, on Thursday night, she said something publicly that many took as a statement that questioned the patriotism of American Jews.

    “So for me, I want to talk about the political influence in this country that says it is OK to push for allegiance to a foreign country.”

    Amoral Scumbag had no problem with it.

  137. jason says:

    Amoral Scumbag is not a troll.

    Just a “Republican” that wants a socialist to win because Trump trashed his candidate in the primaries.

    The guy is not a deep thinker.

  138. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    137. It used to be the mantra of some posters not too long ago that Biden was certain to be the Democratic nominee, because he could beat Trump. It now appears the inevitability of that prophecy has been shattered.

    Will find out next year if the prophecy of the inevitable defeat of Trump in 2020 proves to be true. At this point, I could not project who will be elected in 2020.

  139. Wes says:

    Of course Gallup says Clinton was at 58% approval in July 1995; Obama was at 46% in July 2011; and Trump is at 44% in July 2019.

    Clinton also faced the Hillarycare fiasco and a bear market in 1994. Obama had rammed through Obamacare and was doing nothing to alleviate the ongoing recession in 2010.

    Trump had—and has—a solid economy and still lost a third more seats than the average while still posting lower numbers than both Clinton and Obama at comparable times in their presidencies.

    It’s fine to make comparisons; however, one should look at all data points before tossing out a single comparison to make a point.

  140. Wes says:

    Typo. Clinton was at 48% in July 1995. He would start consistently clearing 50% in late 1995 after the shutdown.

  141. Wes says:

    Let’s also not forget Clinton and Obama lost most of their power in Congress from seats GHWB and McCain respectively had carried.

    Meanwhile, Republicans in the House lost mostly in districts Trump had carried.

    Carrying the comparison further, although Clinton and Obama both won re-election, they made comparatively few inroads in House districts that had ousted Dems from power in their midterms.

    If Trump follows their pattern—a legitimate comparison since SDC brought up the previous first midterms—then he looks highly likely to fall short of reelection.

  142. Wes says:

    In short, Clinton and Obama were rejected mostly on opposition turf while Trump was rejected on his own turf.

    Since the areas they had previously won mostly stayed with them, Clinton and Obama had a solid base for reelection.

    Since Republicans lost in areas Trump had carried, it looks less likely he will repeat their feats.

    Eisenhower and Reagan Trump is not—not for that matter Clinton and Obama.

  143. jason says:

    Neither Obama or Clinton faced the MSM campaign against them that Trump is experiencing.

    If you go to CNN they actually run banners calling Trump a racist, it’s not just guest opinions. I never saw anything remotely like it.

  144. Wes says:

    Well, good for CNN. That’s probably why they’re hemorrhaging viewers. I never visit their website unless an article matching my search criteria comes up.

    It doesn’t change the breakdown of the midterm results among the three elections.

  145. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    As someone once said: “just when I thought I had all the answers to life, they changed all the questions.” We are heading into a political black hole — I have no idea where this is all going; over the last 4-5 years both political parties have rejected their existing leadership and gone into chaos. A decade ago, would anyone have ever thought that Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders would have stood a chance of being elected U.S. President?

  146. Bitterlaw says:

    I agree with Wes. Of course, I have been saying the same thing for years. The press has always been biased one way or the other. It’s more over the top now but certainly not new. It also bleeds into news coverage.

  147. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    Wes is trying to apply logic to a world that is becoming increasingly illogical. Wisdom does not apply when the lunatics run the asylum.

  148. Wes says:

    I heard that last year when people on here were saying Republicans would gain House seats and pick up 5-7 seats in the Senate despite Trump’s perennial unpopularity, SDC.

    How’d that work out?

    We can make excuses or acknowledge reality.

    I prefer to acknowledge reality.

  149. jason says:

    Donald Trump:

    “Never before in all our history have these forces [the media and the opposition party] been so united against one candidate as they stand today. They are unanimous in their hate for me—and I welcome their hatred”

    Actually, it was FDR….

  150. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    150. “I prefer to acknowledge reality.”

    Would agree. Would add that the reality is no one knows for sure what will happen. I was shocked that Trump won in 2016.

  151. jason says:

    The press has always been biased one way or the other. It’s more over the top now but certainly not new. It also bleeds into news coverage.”

    Actually it IS new. Because there is no more differentiation between news and opinion. The CNN anchors say “reaction to Trump’s racist statements”… “Trump’s lies” etc. not what some call racist statements, not allegedly racist statements…

    There has never been this kind of onslaught of negative coverage, never. There is literally NOTHING positive about Trump except at Fox, OAN and Newsmax.

    At CNN and MSNBC it’s literally 100% anti-Trump 24/7.

    “More over the top” my ass.

  152. Phil says:

    One other side of the reality, Wes. Those Democrats in 2018 who won in those suburban districts did NOT run on anything like this radical agenda being spewed by the Democratic presidential candidates. They deliberately stayed away from that nonsense. I didn’t see one Democrat in a swing district run on providing health care to illegals or reparations for blacks or late term abortion or any of the other nonsense. They pointedly stayed away from that.

    Warren and Harris spew that stuff every day.

    That’s a huge difference.

  153. Bitterlaw says:

    I’m sure that the President known as “Ape” Lincoln would disagree with Jason.

  154. Tina says:

    M.Joseph Sheppard
    @SHEPMJS
    ·
    3h
    Updated;
    Effect on Trump’s Approval from prior to his “racist” attack

    Rasmussen 49% +3
    Gallup 44% +3
    Reuters 44% +1
    Economist 46% +3 Blacks 17% “Don’t know” 7% Hispanics 35% DK 8%
    Harris X 46%-1 Blacks 17% Hispanics 35%
    YouGov 44% -1 Blacks 15% Not sure 7% Hispanics 36% NS 4%

  155. Tina says:

    Looks like he is getting over a third hispanic support and almost 20 percent of black support.

  156. Tina says:

    Yikes, Biden looks and sounds horrible. 20 seconds of talking and it is not coherent

    He is turning into Jeb 2.0 and Her Thighness before our eyes.

    https://pjmedia.com/vodkapundit/cant-stand-the-heat-biden-looks-sounds-terrible-on-the-trail-today/

  157. Phil says:

    Tina, Biden is not going to make it. We’re a year away from the Democratic Convention and the guy looks tapped out. He looks like he’s running on fumes. He looks and sounds terrible. What’s he going to be like in 15 months when the GE campaign begins?

    Bernie isn’t going to be nominated. It’s Kamala Harris or Elizabeth Warren. They are by far the best positioned to get the nomination and it isn’t even close. Trump will run against one of those two.

  158. Phil says:

    Biden will be 77 in November BTW.

    Unfortunately for him he looks older than that.

  159. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    158. Before Biden even thinks of withdrawing, it imperative there be a one-on-one debate between Biden and Marianne Williamson. As a California registered independent, I am requesting a Democratic ballot to vote for Williamson. We need to fill the White House with love (am not referring to the type of conduct Bill Clinton engaged in.)

  160. Phil says:

    Biden vs Williamson would be entertaining. Both would be incoherent. Biden because he is senile and Williamson because she’s just weird. No one would know what they were talking about.

  161. lisab says:

    alyssa milano now likes williamson

  162. lisab says:

    predictit now has trump at 45 cents to win

    it has steadily increased for the last 90 days

  163. Tgca says:

    MAAAAAAGAAAAAA!

  164. Tgca says:

    161

    Stoopid post! Love is not the answer! Being FABULOUS is the way to go. What America needs is a gay POTUS! Mayor Butt has all the answers and will unite everyone with his midwestern values and common sense. I am sure Mayor Butt will unite us all, especially AA after he fires or demotes them all from positions of authority and institutes police brutality policies upon them and then blames the courts for not allowing him to properly investigate and make administrative decisions within his authority.

    After all, with a rounded up 5% of the population being gay, it is clear that 5% should represent the other 95%.

    Make
    America
    Gay
    Again

    MAGA!

  165. jason says:

    Anyone understand Drudge’s stupid “Trump turns on MAGA” headline?

  166. Tgca says:

    Interesting stats. Folks believe a higher percentage of the population is gay than studies have shown actual gay representation among the population to be. This could be because of high visibility and over-representation on TV and in the movies of gays they say. I have other hypotheses.

    Women believe nearly 30% of the population is gay while men believe its more like 17%.

    I think women believe it’s higher because of the over-representation in beauty salons and retail stores. It’s a known fact more women spend time in beauty salons and retail stores than men, and therefore believe their anecdotal experience mirrors true representation of gays throughout the population.

    Men probably believe it’s higher because the woman they desire and hit on that turn them down always has a BFF that is gay and hanging about. How can a breeder compete with a gay BFF? It ain’t fair I tell ya!

    Bitter is a more sophisticated suburban creature and probably believes it because everywhere he goes in Philly he sees fabulously dressed metrosexuals.

    Wes is more pragmatic and probably believes its because of the hundreds of men he loves giving massages to and everyone knows gay men LOVE massages. Check out any gay rag and there are pages and pages of advertisements for massages…with happy endings too!

    Michael probably believes in the higher trend because lotsa guys his age wear salmon-colored clothing and dye their hair all colors of the rainbow.

    Jason sees no such trend and thinks it’s all hogwash because he is surrounded mostly by llamas and everyone knows llamas are not gay. No respectable gay being would smell so foul and spit at you.

    LisaB sees no such trend either, and as the resident expert on all things gays, she probably knows better than Gallup the true gay population representation in the US.

  167. Tgca says:

    So one last thought, if Tina and her fellow ladies at HHR believe 30% of folks are gay…that’s one in three dudes statistically at HHR. Come out! Come out! Wherever you are HHR fellas.

    …and off to work I go.

  168. jason says:

    I asked Amos Stoltzfuss how many gay people he thought there were in his congregation.

    He said cousin Jebediah Swartzentruber like to dance, but he can’t think of anyone else.

  169. jason says:

    Looks like he is getting over a third hispanic support and almost 20 percent of black support.”

    I believe the former but not the latter.

  170. jason says:

    Amoral Scumbag is outraged, just outraged, at the “send her back” chants.

    But “Ilhan Omar Says Boycotting Israel Is Like Boycotting Nazi Germany”?

    No problem.

  171. jason says:

    According to Joy Behar, Trump’s tweets are a “threat to every woman in America”.

  172. Wes says:

    Joy Behar also said Ted Kennedy allegedly dod something to some woman once.

    Sure. DUI manslaughter was just a minor possible offense.

  173. Wes says:

    Survey Monkey says Trump is at 48-51.

    If Trump is posting those numbers on Election Day next year his chances of re-election increase. I’m not sure being slightly underwater guarantees his reelection as one RRH Trumpkin says, but he would definitely have better odds than if still mired at 44%.

  174. Tina says:

    50/48 in Rasmussen

  175. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Wes
    Any news about the NC-9 Special Election in Sept.?

    Will you and Tink vote for Trump in 2020?

  176. Wes says:

    Bishop hangs on by 3-5, Sheep. With Harris our, the district will revert to the mean.

    Tink and I are canceling each other out.

    She is absolutely anti-Trump and will vote for whomever the Dems nominate. She has, however, promised to vote for all downballot Republicans.

    I’m voting for Trump and all downballot Republicans.

  177. dblaikie says:

    Wes, I don’t know if I am the “Trumpkin” in your post. But let me say I have real mixed emotions about Trump. I am discovering that his tweets are more effective than I could ever imagine, but many of them still offend me. But except for trade I like his policies — especially his actions for the pro life movement. Because of that I support him and in thinking about the policies of his opponents hope he wins.

    I am not sure what percentage he needs for 2020 but in 2016 it was 46%.

  178. Wes says:

    I would have used your name or at least your initials if I were referring to you, DB. I was mentioning the poster on RRH who posted the poll.

  179. Tina says:

    I agree with granite below and throwing out the racist term has no meaning. Heck, the socialist son called Tucker Carlson a “racist”

    Lindsey Graham
    @LindseyGrahamSC
    · 20h
    Something I have learned:

    If you are a Republican nominee for President – or President – you will be accused of being a racist.

    John Lewis compared John McCain’s campaign to being like that of George Wallace.

    It comes with the territory unfortunately.

  180. Tina says:

    Mullah Omar at it again:

    Josh Hawley
    @HawleyMO
    ·
    21m
    Ilhan Omar pushes anti-Israel resolution & says boycotting Israel is like boycotting Nazi Germany? When will the Left condemn this rank anti-Semitism and take some responsibility?

  181. dblaikie says:

    Good enough, Wes. Thanks.