Biden Leads Warren By 2% in IA, Warren/Trump Tied in AZ

We have a new poll from David Binder Research for the state of Iowa that shows Elizabeth Warren has dropped back to second place in Iowa after leading Biden in the previous iteration from this pollster in July.

Joe Biden 25%
Elizabeth Warren 23%
Pete Buttigieg 12%
Bernie Sanders 9%
Amy Klobuchar 8%
Kamala Harris 5%
Tom Steyer 3%
Cory Booker 2%
Andrew Yang 2%
Everyone Else 1% or less

This poll was done September 14th-17th among 500 likely caucus goers. Meanwhile in Arizona, a new poll from Bendixen and Amandi International shows the Democrats best bet to pick up this state is Elizabeth Warren.

Donald Trump (R-inc) 45%
Bernie Sanders (D) 37%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 42%
Kamala Harris (D) 38%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 43%
Joe Bdein (D) 42%

Elizabeth Warren (D) 42%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 42%

Martha McSally (R-inc) 42%
Mark Kelly (D) 42%

This poll was done September 9-12 among 520 registered voters.

Posted by Dave at 11:24 am
Filed under: General | Comments (97)

97 Responses to “Biden Leads Warren By 2% in IA, Warren/Trump Tied in AZ”

  1. Bitterlaw says:

    In the beginning, God said “Let there be Walt.”

    Happy birthday, Walt.

  2. Wes says:

    Better results for Trump and McSally than in the last poll.

    Both still have work to do in that state.

  3. Wes says:

    So, Walt, have you reached the 4.5 billion milestone yet, or is that a few years off still?

  4. Wes says:

    Mikey has found his dream candidate in KS-Sen:

    Kris Kobach is the most likely candidate to lose to someone Chuck Schumer can rely on for a vote for Majority Leader.

  5. NYCmike says:


    You need to check the dosage on your meds.

    I would hope the Republican primary voters will choose the best candidate most likely to win the Senate race. I have no favorite that I wish to see nominated.

  6. NYCmike says:

    -My wife and I will have to have a good long chat with our son before he goes off to college, to make sure we aren’t paying for classes like this.

  7. John says:

    New Florida poll

    Trump 50
    Biden 49

    I’m starting to think the reason that some polls show Trump losing to several D’s by large margins is perhaps oversampling areas in deep blue states such as Ca, NY, upper NE…

  8. Wes says:

    The same guy who supported Christine O’Donnell, Dick the Misogynist Bastard Mourdock, Eric Hovde, and Matt Bevin for Senate claims to want Republicans to nominate the best candidate available in KS for Senate.

    Who else calls BS on this?

  9. NYCmike says:


    The meds…..take the meds.

  10. NYCmike says:

    As for nominating the best……is McSally “the best” Arizona can do?

    McSally already lost to Sinema (who happens to be turning into more of a moderate Democrat than we thought possible), and she is now in a dead heat with Kelly.

    Or will Wes keep blaming Trump for her lack of support?

    Also, kelli Ward has given support to McSally……will Wes also keep blaming her for McSally’s low standing?

  11. Wes says:

    Mikey, I understand you drank paint by the gallon as a kid and became as stupid as the average West Virginian, but bear with me since I’ve gone over this before.

    A number of factors contributed to McSally’s defeat:

    1) An unusually strong Dem candidate with an energized base

    2) A late, resource-draining primary

    3) Trump’s unpopularity


    4) McSally’s own campaign, which targeted Synema on an issue that would have had currency in 2004

    All four of those contributed to McSally’s defeat. Had any of the four not been present McSally probably would have won.

  12. NYCmike says:

    Wes, the man who every West Virginian looks to for better understanding,

    I guess Mark kelly is another #1.

    Tough luck for McSally? Tough luck for Republicans?

    Or a candidate that doesn’t engender widespread support?

  13. CG says:

    Whom specifically does Mike believe should replace McSally as the Republican candidate in Arizona in 2020?

    Does he believe that Kelli Ward or Joe Arpaio would have won the seat last year or would have come closer than McSally?

  14. CG says:

    If not McSally, whom?

    I want a specific name.

    If you say Doug Ducey, I would agree, he would probably be a stronger general election candidate.

    He isn’t running however, and there would have to be acknowledgement of two factors.

    1. If Ducey leaves the Governorship in this term, the job goes to the Democrat who is Secretary of State.

    2. Ducey ran for reelection and won as more of a McCain style Republican than a Trump style Republican which is how McSally ran in 2018.

    So, whom specifically would be better for the party now than McSally, especially from the prospective of someone who thinks that Republicans need to embrace Trump tighter and not less in Arizona?

  15. CG says:

    I should have mentioned that Ducey appointed McSally, so she is his choice.

  16. Wes says:

    We know Kelly is at least nominally a strong candidate, Mikey. We also know your wing of the party is going to force her into another high-spending primary. Trump is almost certain to still be unpopular in 2020.

    Thus the X Factor becomes McSally’s campaign skills. Can she run a better campaign with a more salient theme against Kelly than against Sinema?

    Will it even matter if she does since a combination of the other three factors may well doom her?

    That’s the big question. It certainly would help if Trump weren’t an unpopular loudmouth and McSally weren’t facing a primary with a Deadender, but we have what we have.

  17. CG says:

    As for Kobach, it would be dumb of Republicans beyond belief to nominate him. He is probably the only Republican that would lose that race.

    I said the same thing when he was a Gubernatorial candidate, running in a primary against many others, and mnw, of Mexifornia fame, went beserk, insisting that Kobach was as “politically strong as they come” or something very similar to that.

  18. CG says:

    I hope McSally this time will avoid making a reference to “space treason.”

  19. Wes says:

    Republicans lost a lot of ground in AZ last year. Dems has their best year in the state in decades. The AZGOP needs to get things in order before it becomes as irrelevant as it was in the 1930s and 1940s.

  20. Wes says:

    Mnw still likes Kobach, Corey, for some reason—despite the latter’s noteworthy loss for Governor against a candidate with a split vote who carried only one of four CDs in the state.

  21. jason says:

    Who else calls BS on this?”

    me me me me!

  22. jason says:

    Kobach is a deadender moron.

  23. Cash Cow TM says:

    Walt says thanks for the happy birthday messages.

    I have been out for hours to stores trying to purchase enough birthday candles. ..

  24. jason says:

    The Mikey Maneuver is alive and well in AZ.

    First, you get deadenders like the Chemtrail Wards and the Mo Brooks to make sure the Rs have a divisive and expensive primary.

    Then you blame the best candidate for losing to the liberal Dem, so that next time you can defend running a deadender sure to lose.

  25. jason says:

    I have been out for hours to stores trying to purchase enough birthday candles. ..”

    Ryder rents those big trucks.

  26. NYCmike says:

    Got it.

    Kelli Ward, GOP State Chair in Arizona, who supports McSally, is still to blame for the previous loss to Sinema.

    And a shot at Mo Brooks is thrown in for good measure.


  27. Wes says:

    Is there enough room on the planet for 4.5 billion candles?

  28. NYCmike says:

    “Then you blame the best candidate for losing to the liberal Dem, so that next time you can defend running a deadender sure to lose.”


    I blamed Mourdock, O’Donnell, Buck, Angle, just like I blame McSally. They got the nomination, and lost the general election.

    Also, seeing as how Sinema has voted with Republicans several times, we should probably give her some credit for her political sense.

    As for 2020, the question, which all of you are avoiding, why is McSally, as an incumbent, still not getting more support?

    Is she working at reaching out to independents, and those that she will need to attain 50.01% of the votes?

  29. DW says:

    Seriously, the Mets need to fire their manager. In a must-win game today, to keep their extremely slim playoff hopes alive, they have the bases loaded, with two outs, down 1 run, but the light hitting backup catcher at the plate, because their regular .300 hitting catcher played last night.

    In this obvious pinch-hit situation, Callaway sits on his hands and does nothing, allowing the inning to end on a ground ball out. Now its 4-2 with only three innings left for the Mets to have any chance to keep the season alive. Callaway has got to go. He isn’t even trying. The Rockies manager by contrast is still working hard to win even though their playoff hopes ended months ago.

  30. CG says:

    Mike, will you answer the two questions I addressed to you?

  31. CG says:

    “As for 2020, the question, which all of you are avoiding, why is McSally, as an incumbent, still not getting more support?”

    This was one has been answered, both in the past, and on this thread, by more than one person:

    A. Donald J. Trump

  32. CG says:

    Any remaining NL playoff intrigue involves Cardinals, Nationals, Brewers, and Cubs. Three will make it. (To join the Dodgers and Braves of course) One will not.

    The Mets and everyone else are not part of the equation.

  33. CG says:

    Here is a key difference-

    Mourdock, O’Donnell, Buck, Angle

    Lots of evidence to suggest the candidate they beat in the primary would have won the general election


    The candidates she beat in the general election would have done even worse

    Do you disagree Mike?

  34. NYCmike says:

    Mourdock (agree), O’Donnell (agree), Buck (not guaranteed), Angle (not guaranteed)

    Lots of evidence to suggest the candidate they beat in the primary would have won the general election

  35. NYCmike says:


    The candidates she beat in the general election (? do you mean primary election) would have done even worse (not guaranteed)

  36. CG says:

    It is likely that Norton would have won and probably Lowden in Nevada. Even Angle looked like she might win until the end against Reid.

    What about McSally? Would Ward or Arpaio had won? Would they be stronger than her now? Whom is your substitute for McSally?

  37. CG says:

    Yes, I meant in the primary, and yes I guarantee that either of them would have been blow out by Sinema. Guaranteed.

  38. NYCmike says:



    1) No idea who else. My comments were about McSally. She doesn’t seem to catch on, even with the support of former rivals such as Kelli Ward. Maybe you can try to stop blaming others and look at the candidate running. Trump may have something to do with it, I won’t deny that. BUT, you don’t look critically at McSally at all.

    2) Could Ward have won? Not sure. The primary voters thought McSally was the right choice. I had no issue with that.

    The question is NOW, should McSally be given a clear shot, with no primary competition, despite her lackluster polling?

  39. NYCmike says:

    For some reason, some of you keep bringing up Ward, Arpaio, Mourdock, etc.

    Deal with the candidate running NOW. Stop deflecting.

    I have NEVER said that “republicans” like “CG” and Robbie will be blamed if Trump loses in 2020.

    I have said that ALL REPUBLICANS should vote for the lesser of 2 evils, which is DEFINITELY Trump.

  40. CG says:

    McSally probably got almost all of Ward’s primary supporters.

    Whom she didn’t catch as much with were the suburban or urban Republicans in Maricopa County who liked John McCain.

    I am nothing but critical of the way McSally ran in 2018, but it has everything to do with her putting aside her principles and trying to be a Trump acolyte. She was NeverTrump in 2016. McCain was her political mentor and first encouraged her to run. Then, McCain dies and she releases a deliberately terse statement, just because she didn’t want Trump to get mad at her. They signed the defense authorization bill named after him, when he was still alive but very sick, and she didn’t even mention his name because she didn’t want Trump to get mad at her.

    Sinema went all over the state saying that McCain was a patriot and a hero and a lot of Republicans voted for her for that reason.

    Ducey gave her a second chance. You are overlooking that she does have primary opponents this time too. I expect she will win the primary though.

    If you can’t come up with a better option, then complaining is pointless.

  41. CG says:

    “I have NEVER said that “republicans” like “CG” and Robbie will be blamed if Trump loses in 2020.”

    You say this all the time actually. That is how it comes across to me.

    I don’t care though. I would be happy to take the “credit.”

  42. NYCmike says:

    “because she didn’t want Trump to get mad at her.”

    -A regular profile in courage.

  43. NYCmike says:

    “That is how it comes across to me.”


    I have NEVER said it. My fact.

    It comes across that way to you – your fantasy.

  44. NYCmike says:

    ” I would be happy to take the “credit.””

    -Yes, I have said that you will get credit for helping the Democrat take office, if Trump was to lose.

  45. CG says:

    How are you not contradicting yourself?

  46. CG says:

    You know which AZ Republican would be leading Kelly in the polls right now?

    Cindy McCain…. Kelly wouldn’t even be running against her.

    But I know you wouldn’t want that! And neither would the guy you stick up for without any second thought.

  47. Tina says:

    There is a new Florida poll

    Trump over all drats, except Pocahontas.

    We need Pocahontas.

  48. jason says:

    Kelli Ward is an ignorant deadender moron.

    Chair of the GOP in AZ?

    All that means is the Mikey Maneuver advocates are in charge of the AZ GOP.

  49. jason says:

    Glenn Reynolds”

    WELL, YES: The Southern Slave Economy Was Anti-Capitalistic. In fact, there’s an eerie resemblance between today’s woke critiques of capitalism and the slaveowners’ own criticisms of the North. But then, socialism is just another flavor of slavery, one in which the state owns your labor rather than some individual.

  50. jason says:

    “Could Ward have won? Not sure.”


    I am sure Ward would have lost by 15.

  51. jason says:

    Whom is your substitute for McSally?”


    Let’s run a deadender so we are `100% sure a liberal Dem will win the seat.

  52. CG says:

    Justin Trudeau wore blackface in 2001. He was 29.

    Au Revoir

  53. Wes says:

    Kelli Ward would have lost badly to Sinema. She was the worst candidate in the primary. McSally was the best, but circumstances including her decision to attack Sinema in a no longer salient issue caused her defeat.

    Of course given the other defeats AZ Republicans suffered last year it’s clear Trump was a not insignificant factor.

    Sorry, Trumpkins, but the President when unpopular is always a factor in his party’s losses.

  54. Tina says:

    Censure because she voted for R judges and is strong on border, Drats don’t full around

  55. NYCmike says:

    -How exactly does this type of situation get handled without offending people like “CG”?

  56. NYCmike says:

    “But I know you wouldn’t want that!”

    -If she ran in a primary, stated her beliefs, and won, I would have no problem with Cindy McCain.

    I would have had a problem with her if the field had been cleared for her instead of winning a primary.

  57. NYCmike says:

    “-If she ran in a primary, stated her beliefs, and won, I would have no problem with Cindy McCain.”

    -Correction: I would have no problem supporting her over the Democrat in the general election.

    If she started acting like John McCain/Jeff Flake, then I would have an issue.

  58. lisab says:

    Hillary Clinton

    I am very sad to hear about my friend Ed Buck’s upcoming suicide.

  59. lisab says:

    The Trump administration on Wednesday revoked an Obama-era waiver allowing California to set its own standards for automobile emissions, a move which President Trump claims will lead to “significantly more jobs” and safer, less costly vehicles.

  60. lisab says:

    Report: House Democrats 43 Votes Short of Impeachment | Breitbart

  61. lisab says:

    “Harvard Law School hired it’s first woman of color, Elizabeth Warren, in 1995.”

  62. Tina says:

    About time

    Jim Acosta
    Trump told reporters on Air Force One tonight that his administration will slap San Francisco with a notice of environmental violations within about a week due to the city’s homeless population. (Via WH pool)

  63. mnw says:


    Where the trolls aren’t.

  64. VictrC says:

    Wow, it really is quiet here when the trolls aren’t present.

    Ill bite.

    A primary against McSally in AZ is not in the best interest of the party. We need all the resources we have in order to win the GE

    Kobash is an imbecile. I have to believe that the good people of KS recognize that and will not nominate him, having seen previously the damage he can do.

  65. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    From the National Review on September 16th:

    “Rasmussen Reports, in a survey of 1500 likely voters, puts President Trump at 50 percent approval, 49 percent disapproval. Rasmussen tends to be more favorable to Trump than other pollsters. Trump has scored 50 percent with Rasmussen several times this year, and has even hit 51 percent.

    Other polls, though, tell a similar story: Trump’s approval rating is ticking up. He’s at 47 percent according to The Hill, 44 percent with Reuters, 44 percent with The Economist, 43 percent with Politico. The RealClearPolitics polling average gives Trump an overall score of 44.1 percent. On this day in 2011, then-President Obama’s approval rating according to the same metric was 44.0 percent.”

  66. Wes says:

    Don’t forget NC has its own Deadender candidate who’s forcing Thom Tillis to face him in a primary, Vic.

  67. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    71. “Wow, it really is quiet here when the trolls aren’t present.”

    That evil trickster Hunter is hovering over the board, ready at any moment to swoop down and steal a troll’s screen name. Clearly Putin must be involved.

  68. VictrC says:


    I can only hope that Tillis and McSally, as well as the people of KS, have learned a lesson from the past and realize that the deadenders are exactly that, leading to a dead end of the seat held. Doesn’t even apply to only the R side…just ask Crowley.

    There is a time and a place to primary those who you think truly are not representing their constituent well, or who you think might lose a seat, but neither Tillis,McSally or the K Senate seat are that time.

  69. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    The Trump campaign has just issued a video attacked Joe Biden’s gaffes. It is pretty brutal.

  70. jason says:

    Evidently the NeverTrumpers are not enthusiastic about the 3 stooges so they might support Biden at best.

    Streiff over at Redstate says it well:

    “It’s time to call this nonsense exactly what it is. The NeverTrump people are not conservatives and they are not Republicans. They petulant little kids who are engaged in virtue signaling in the short term. Their conceit is that if they contribute to a Trump defeat that the GOP that remains after the defeat will call upon the people who contributed to that fiasco and give them leadership positions and lucrative consulting contracts. It’s not going to happen. If they persist in this they will be ridiculed and ostracized as the assclowns and quislings they are regardless of Trump’s fate in 2020.”

    I firmly believe this. The idea the “post-Trump R party is going to back to the Bushes and Romneys is pure fantasy. That train left the station long ago.

  71. dblaikie says:

    As an alumni of Princeton Seminary I have always been leery of Union Seminary in NYC. Today those decades of suspicion was justified when I read that students there are praying and confessing to plants. In this we are seeing real evidence that Climate Change is not science, it is a new religion. I am not joking.

  72. Tina says:

    Governor Nuisssance loses. The constitution does not require a presidential candidate to provide his or her returns. Jebots lose again.

  73. Tina says:

    They will support any drat,

    Look at how much the Clinton Groupie and the Russian Hoaxer fronted for her Thighness.

  74. lisab says:

    beto did an “ask me anything” on reddit today

    he talked about confiscating guns

    all the top rated comments are pro-gun posts

    on his own ama he got downvoted by thousands

    and ironically, reddit is VERY liberal

  75. lisab says:

    question: how will you confiscate the millions of AR-15s?

    beto answer: Americans will comply with the law

  76. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    83. I will comply with the law. The law is the Second Amendment.

  77. Wes says:

    A federal judge issues a stay on the law in CA requiring disclosure of financial records to appear on a presidential primary ballot. Personally I support what the judge did. The Constitution is clear on the requirements for running for President:

    1) Must be 35 at least

    2) Must be a natural-born Citizen

    3) Must have lived in the country or one of its territories for the previous 14 years

    4) Can not have been elected President twice previously

    5) Can not have served more than half of another President’s term and subsequently been elected President

    That said, this wouldn’t be a problem if Trump would just release his tax returns. It’s obviously not an undue burden since all previous Presidents and presidential candidates have done so. I think Trump should release his returns, but I oppose what California is doing to force his hand.

    As such while I oppose what California is doing and agree with the judge I think Trump would be wise just to get this freaking headache out of his way.

  78. Tina says:

    Looks like the Ny fat pad had another hearing.

    “Star of the Show”. Race baiter Sharpton,

  79. Cash Cow TM says:


    “West Virginia University researchers have helped discover the most massive neutron star to date, a breakthrough uncovered through the Green Bank Telescope in Pocahontas County.

    The neutron star, called J0740+6620, is a rapidly spinning pulsar that packs 2.17 times the mass of the sun (which is 333,000 times the mass of the Earth) into a sphere only 20-30 kilometers, or about 15 miles, across. This measurement approaches the limits of how massive and compact a single object can become without crushing itself down into a black hole.

    The star was detected approximately 4,600 light-years from Earth.”

  80. Cash Cow TM says:

    Walt had a FABULOUS time on Skyline Drive.

    Except for lots of hiking.

    Last night, the waitress at the restaurant there at Skyland overheard that it was Walt’s birthday

    She brought him a HUGE SLAB of blackberry ice cream on a graham cracker crust, topped with many inches of meringue and coated with a black berry sauce topping with a CANDLE ON TOP!



  81. Wes says:

    Obviously the researchers whose discovery Walt extolled in 87 aren’t native West Virginians. Their IQs are much too high for that.

  82. Wes says:

    You should have told her you were there to see the first blackberry evolve, Walt. You wouldn’t be lying.

  83. jason says:

    That said, this wouldn’t be a problem if Trump would just release his tax returns.”

    I am with Trump on this one. If he is not required to release his returns he shouldn’t be harassed to release them.

    Personally, I have zero interest in them, if they were good enough for the IRS they are good enough for me.

  84. Phil says:

    Nobody outside of Democrats (who won’t vote for Trump anyway) care one bit about Trump’s tax returns. Way way down the list of issues voters care about. As far as legally speaking the Democrats can appeal this one until the cows come home. There is no way the US Supreme Court is going to allow blue states to block the Republican nominee from appearing on the 2020. Trump meets all the specified constitutional requirements for President. Partisan legislatures can’t arbitrarily invent extra constitutional requirements. Even Jerry Brown said that one was a nonstarter.

  85. Cash Cow TM says:


    Walt says you are “brutal and unrelenting.”

  86. Cash Cow TM says:

    Why is it that MEN seem to be the ones who are almost always the ones who:

    1. replace the toilet paper rolls

    2. empty the lint filter in the dryer

    3. pump the gas at the gas station?

  87. NYCmike says:

    I didn’t care about Obama’s, Clinton’s, Biden’s, or the Gore’s tax returns BEFORE and WHILE they were in office.

    I would LOVE to examine their tax returns NOW, as somehow they are rolling in more dough than most people on the face of this earth!

    Public Service INDEED!

  88. lisab says:

    The NRA has named Beto O’Rourke the AR-15 salesman of the year