EGO BOOST
HEDGEHOG REPORT SOCIAL NETWORK

Search

LA Governor – Election Night Thread

It has been a while since we had a simple Election Night open thread. Tonight, there is really no chance a Republican is going to win outright, so the real question is whether the voters give Democrat John Bel Edwards another term outright tonight or will he come up short of the 50% threshold and we will have a runoff election later.

The polls close at 9pm EDT. The results from the Associated Press will be found here.

Posted by Dave at 8:00 pm
Filed under: General | Comments (60)

60 Responses to “LA Governor – Election Night Thread”

  1. BayernFan says:

    First

  2. John says:

    According to this site the black turnout has been ‘soft’

    https://thehayride.com/2019/10/the-election-night-blog/

  3. John says:

    Excuse me, soft in Baton Rouge and NO.

  4. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    This is stupid. Trump allowed the Turks to attack our Kurdish allies while American troops are present. Maybe Trump should have requested the Kurds wear targets while near Americans.

    “A contingent of U.S. Special Forces was caught up in Turkish shelling against U.S.-backed Kurdish positions in northern Syria, days after President Donald Trump told his Turkish counterpart he would withdraw U.S. troops from certain positions in the area. A senior Pentagon official said shelling by the Turkish forces was so heavy that the U.S. personnel considered firing back in self-defense.”

  5. John says:

    …”the buzz is that turnout in Baton Rouge and NO has been soft especially in the black precincts but hot and heavy in the rural parishes all day long…”

  6. John says:

    1% in
    Edwards 41%
    Rispone 31%
    Abraham 26%

  7. John says:

    over 189,000 votes…
    Edwards 42%
    Abraham 30%
    Rispone 26%

    These percentages seem to be holding for awhile.

  8. Hugh says:

    Suck it dems. Tonight will be a precursor to the beat down that’s coming. At least I hope it is

  9. John says:

    Let’s see where this goes but Trump has apparently had R’s out voting …

    The two R’s 111,000 combined
    Edwards 82,000

  10. Hugh says:

    I no nothing about LA. So no idea what’s in and what’s out.

  11. Tina says:

    And add more potential misery for the Jebots…

    Barr and Durham are going back to Italy and it ain’t for the pizza.

  12. BayernFan says:

    The dem is down to 45.5 percent with 52% counted. Ha.

  13. Tina says:

    La state legislature looks like a blood bath for the drats too.

  14. John says:

    78% in

    The two R’s…557,000
    Edwards…….487,000

    I think Trump got out the R vote.

  15. John says:

    NY Times just called it a runoff between Edwards and Rispone.

    FYI…the two R’s have almost 68,000 more votes that Edwards with 96% in.

  16. Victrc says:

    Looks like the polls were pretty good here. Most had Edwards at 48%, he’ll finish at about 47%

    It will be interesting to see if the R vote consolidates enough to carry Rispine to the win

  17. Blobbie says:

    well the democrat won, just like hillary!

  18. mnw says:

    “Local issues dominated Louisiana state election contests yesterday, and the results were largely as pollsters had predicted. Although President Trump visited the state on Thursday to stump for GOP candidates, experts largely agreed that his late visit had little if any discernible impact.

    Democrats were encouraged that all of the GOP candidates in the governor’s race received only 53% of the total vote combined. That result is regarded by most analysts as good news for incumbent Democratic Governor John Bel Edwards, who took 46%, as he heads into the November runoff.

    Along with the recent special House election in NC-09, the Louisiana results have given national Democrats fresh momentum as they move forward toward the impeachment of Trump.”

  19. Wes says:

    My takeaway:

    1) In contrast to 2018’s elections, Trump helped Republicans. Of course since 2004, Louisiana has careened rightward. Trump is basically a conservative version of Huey Long appealing to a state demographically predisposed to him and increasingly warm to his party. It’s unclear if Trump can replicate this nationwide next year, but in a hugely psychologically important off-year election, Trump came through.

    2) Impeachment—never a popular thing especially given its spurious rationale—likely motivated Republicans to vote. That’s not a good sign for the Dems, though Round Two in LA as well as KY and MS will go some way toward telling us if Republicans can remain ginned up for the long term.

    3) Rispone was the better candidate as he has the money to match Edwards’ spending and avoid being defined.

    4) Trump was wise to invoke Reagan’s 11th Commandment and avoid the divisiveness Edwards benefited from four years ago.

    5) Of course the runoff will have a—possibly radically—different electorate from the jungle primary, but Republicans should feel good about combining for 53% of the vote against a reasonably popular Governor.

    6) This is a promising start to the election season immediately predating the pivotal upcoming presidential election, but Republicans have only partly won one battle. There are three more contests to win this year. A sweep would be great and would certainly engender Republicans with much-needed confidence going into Trump’s re-election year.

  20. jan says:

    Good analysis, Wes.

    mnw, I found your takeaway from LA’s jungle primary results confusing.

  21. Hugh says:

    Mnw. Sounds like great news.

  22. Paul says:

    21: I got to check that out, Bitter. I’ve been just donating my mayhem.

  23. jason says:

    Looks like Rs swept the rest of the statewide offices.

  24. Phil says:

    Excellent analysis as usual, Wes. You are right on about the nature of Louisiana politics. Moving right plus the historical populist nature of the La. electorate does indeed to make this a particularly ripe state for Trump’s message. We will have to see if On the national scene Trump will be able to hold on to his 2016 support the suburbs which was just good enough to get him over the finish line. That will be the key to his re-election campaign in my opinion.

  25. mnw says:

    20 jan

    Satire, see?

    It’s how the MSM will spin the result, see? Less confusing now?

    Hopefully?

  26. Tina says:

    Mnw, great satire.

    I think you actually were close to politicos viewpoint.

    We need more ‘peachment. Bring Botoxic.

  27. BayernFan says:

    Has Drudge covered the LA election?

  28. Tina says:

    This activist judge says that El Paso has standing because it could be offended. He blocks using the National emergency declaration for building the wall. The Sc already ruled that it could be done. Notice the activist judge did not issue an injunction, however. So, wall construction still commences.

    https://www.redstate.com/bonchie/2019/10/12/another-federal-judge-spits-face-supreme-court/

  29. Hugh says:

    Hard to see the republican losing in LA with last nights results. Need to win big as well in KY

  30. Tina says:

    They are not neo cons.

    John Cardillo
    @johncardillo
    ·
    18m
    First
    @realDonaldTrump
    criticizes NATO nations for not paying their fair share, Dems and NeoCons attack him

    Now he decides not to go to war with another NATO ally that Dems and Neocons demanded he respect, Dems and NeoCons attack him

    Sensing a pattern here?

  31. Wes says:

    Hugh, it’s a mistake to think yesterday’s electorate will automatically carry over to the runoff.

    I can give two examples from Louisiana over the past few decades where the runoff had a different result from what the jungle primary would suggest:

    In 1996, Republicans combined for over 50% of the vote in the jungle primary. Woody Jenkins actually finished first. A number of factors—his lack of money, the lean of the state at the time, and Clinton’s decisive victory over Dole in the state’s presidential race—combined to help Mary Landrieu edge Jenkins in the runoff.

    In 2002, Republicans combined for 54% in the jungle primary. Landrieu, however, won 52-48 in the runoff.

    Of course caveats apply. Louisiana is now a solidly Republican state, and Eddie Rispone—unlike Jenkins and Suzanne Terrell (the 2002 GOP nominee)—will have plenty of money to battle Edwards with. Even so, Republicans would make a huge mistake in assuming the jungle primary automatically prefigured the runoff.

    In contrast to that, it would be unusual but not entirely unprecedented if a popular Dem Governor like Edwards lost even in a state with a partisan lean opposite his party barring a scandal. Averell Harriman was Governor of New York in the Dem wave year of 1958. Nelson Rockefeller defeated Harriman that year.

    Thus, I rank this one as a Tossup. There are factors favoring and working against both Edwards and Rispone. Both candidates should acknowledge that and do everything in their power to rally the troops for the runoff. I hope Rispone does better than Edwards at this, but I wouldn’t automatically assume Edwards will lose because Republicans combined to top 50% in the jungle primary.

  32. Wes says:

    Here’s how I rank all gubernatorial races this year and next:

    Solid R Hold-

    UT
    ND
    MO
    IN

    Likely R Hold-

    VT
    NH
    WV

    Lean R Hold-

    MS

    Tossup-

    MT
    LA
    KY

    Lean D Hold-

    NC

    Solid D Hold-

    WA
    DE

  33. jason says:

    I agree with Wes on LA.

    Edwards would be toast if he ran as a liberal, but he has been successful pretending to be a moderate with statements on issues he doesn’t really have any influence over (such as abortion) while actually pursuing liberal policies as Governor.

    He is about as fake a moderate as Manchin, but like Manchin he is able to fool a portion of low info voters.

  34. jason says:

    Will Abraham endorse Rispone?

    I didn’t follow the primary so I don’t know how contentious it was between the Rs.

  35. jason says:

    Now he decides not to go to war with another NATO ally that Dems and Neocons demanded he respect, Dems and NeoCons attack him”

    Zzzzz….

    Completely dishonest and fake interpretation of the situation.

    Nobody was proposing any war, just a continuation of the policy that was working.

  36. Tina says:

    Let’s also not mention the airbase in Turkey and encourage them further that “the policy” was “working.”
    https://mobile.twitter.com/AndreasShrugged/status/1183371727180578818

    Andreas Backhaus
    @AndreasShrugged
    @ScottAdamsSays
    I’ve created a map of all violent incidents between Turkish and Kurdish PKK/YPG forces for 01/2017-09/2019. More than 6500 fatalities according to
    @ACLEDINFO
    . Questions the relevance of US troop presence for ‘peace-keeping’.

  37. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    #35
    He did last night during his concession speech!

  38. Tina says:

    And the Rs in LA got the super majority in the House.

    Looks like Edwards got killed up North and under performed in the cities and among Blacks.

  39. Tina says:

    *did the Rs get the super majority?

  40. Tina says:

    Breaking

    Hunter Biden steps down from an “unfounded” conspiracy theory.

  41. Hugh says:

    Republicans always seem to under poll in KY. I really think the rep wins comfortably

  42. Tina says:

    Crack Biden won’t do it again,

    Marc Lotter
    @marc_lotter
    · 2h
    Hunter Biden’s response to questions about potentially improper foreign business dealings while his father was VP, it wasn’t wrong but I won’t do it again… https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-13/hunter-biden-steps-down-from-chinese-board-in-bid-to-fight-back

  43. Hugh says:

    32. I think your analysis is solid. My confidence is pretty high I think national politics is driving most election contests which in LA benefits our side.

  44. Tgca says:

    The impeachment seems to be playing out just as I expected when the Dems won the House despite many crying the GOP was destroyed and destined to wander in political purgatory for decades. Love him or hate him but Trump is forcing the Dems to be so radical where they are now threatening to jail WH personnel. I think Trump would love nothing more than to see them do that and have the MSM play this 24/7. He would also love to force a vote on impeachment I believe. It would rally the GOP and conservatives and show the indys how crazy the Dems are and that they could care less about governing as all they want is to overturn the last election to prove a point.

    I truly believe if the election were held today with Biden or Warren, Trump would win easily and pick up a few more states. Anything can happen in 13 months but today he is winning and the Dems don’t realize it.

  45. gameboy says:

    #45 You couldn’t have stated it better!! Trump is, and always has been a step ahead of his haters, including several of the geniuses who post on this website.

  46. Tgca says:

    Here’s my view of the hearings playing out in a Congress. The GOP calls Hunter as a witness and has him detail all the work he did for Ukraine and cross-examine him on his credentials, degrees, experience, and how he 1st got involved with Ukraine. They read Joe Biden’s remarks word for word into the record how he forced Ukraine to fire the prosecutor or forego US funding. Every Dem on the Committee will have to take a position on this. Red state Dems would have to answer how this actual evidence pales to a phone call where no threats were made. Trump and many in the GOP will Twitter selected remarks 24/7. MSM will overreact to defend and only put more focus on the Biden’s and the Dems. Trump will be gleeful for all of this.

    Biden and Obama start squirming as it becomes apparent America will hear how that administration was enriching their families with American tax dollars.

  47. Tgca says:

    …and this all before Lyndsay Graham and a few select GOP senators start holding their own hearings and calling witnesses to rebuff the Dem circus hearings. Americans will be overloaded with Ukraine and China 24/7 for months showing what most Americans already know…politicians lie and are in the pockets of many powerful interests to enrich themselves and their families. Let’s see how this plays out with the” White Privilege” meme too.

    …and how is this good for Biden, Obama, and the Dems?

  48. Hugh says:

    That will not happen in the house. Dems will not let it. But it could very well happen in the senate.

  49. Tgca says:

    …and wait until Warren and her crew start pontificating on greed and money in politics. Ya think when Biden is forced out that his folks would rally around her when she in essence labels him the “crooked old white privileged male?” Ya think Obama and his loyalists will appreciate her nailing his VP and close confidante to a greedy administration?

    Ya think Warren folks are going to vote for Biden if Warren is not the nominee? He is the “white privileged male” they hate who is the cause of all that ails the world.

  50. Tgca says:

    Even if the House refuses to call Hunter as a witness, the GOP can read the details into the record and ask their colleagues. “What are you afraid of learning by having a key witness to Ukraine testify.”

  51. dblaikie says:

    49 Hugh if that happens the Dems have destroyed themselves. Think of it, everything done in secret, only information put out is by Schiff and Co., Trump is never given an opportunity to defend himself. Yet if they open it up so that the GOP has the right to call its own witnesses, things will go downhill for them fast.

    The other elephant in the room IGDOJ report coming down. Even if it has no specific referrals, but if it shows corruption, lack of ethics, and an attempt to take out Trump from the beginning, that will put a terrible sheen on the impeachment effort.

  52. lisab says:

    soooooooooo … will the eagles be playing today?

  53. jason says:

    Not so far but they promise to be there for the second half.

  54. jason says:

    a think when Biden is forced out that his folks would rally around her when she in essence labels him the “crooked old white privileged male?”

    Actually, yes.

  55. jason says:

    Supposedly O’Keefe is coming out with a bombshell against CNN.

    I don’t believe in bombshells in advance, so I will believe it when I see it.

    But if someone could unmask Amoral Scumbag’s favorite news source it would be a great thing.

  56. lisab says:

    i meant football …

  57. jason says:

    Eagles coach just pulled an Andy Reid.

    Fourth down, only 5 minutes gone second quarter, going for an 4th and 2 at midfield.

    Completely unnecessary, only down by 7.

    Bitter to say great play in 3, 2, 1….

  58. jason says:

    Down by 10 I mean.

    So instead of pinning Vikings on their end of the field you are now down by 21.

    Brilliant.

  59. Bitterlaw says:

    It was a bad call. The coach has a Super Bowl ring. Both can be true.

Leave a Reply