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    Trump and McSally Surge To Leads in AZ

    Since February 9th, by my count, there have been 16 consecutive polls for the US Senate race in Arizona that has shown Democrat Mark Kelly with a lead over Republican incumbent Martha McSally, in some cases by double digits. Over that same period, 15 out of the 16 most recent public polls has also shown Joe Biden over Donald Trump. Today Gravis Marketing was given money by OAN and found a different electorate in Arizona and claims both Martha McSally and Donald Trump are ahead of their Democratic opponents by 4%.

    PRESIDENT – ARIZONA (Gravis)
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 49%
    Joe Biden (D) 45%

    US SENATE – ARIZONA (Gravis)
    Martha McSally (R-inc) 46%
    Mark Kelly (D) 42%

    This poll was done June 27th among 527 likely voters. Meanwhile another poll from Public Policy Polling came out today, this time for the state of Michigan.

    PRESIDENT – MICHIGAN (PPP)
    Joe Biden (D) 50%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 44%

    US SENATE – MICHIGAN (PPP)
    Gary Peters (D-inc) 47%
    John James (R) 39%

    This poll was done June 26-27 among 1237 registered voters.

    Posted by Dave at 9:29 pm
    Filed under: General | Comments (31)

    31 Responses to “Trump and McSally Surge To Leads in AZ”

    1. Victrc says:

      2. That’s better. But still feel excluded. From being a oner

    2. UgandanAttorney says:

      OANN paying Gravis is no different than “Progress Michigan” paying PPP(D).

      The best way to evaluate a poll’s accuracy in a Trump horserace is to evaluate how they did in the last Trump horserace. I recognize that may sound like a novel concept.

      After all, the best reason to think Clayton Kershaw will choke in the playoffs is that Clayton Kershaw has previously choked in the playoffs (sorry Dodger fans)

    3. Phil says:

      676 total deaths reported today.

      Time to look at the last two months of Wednesdays:

      5-6……2574
      5-13….1857
      5-20….1432
      5-27….1563
      6-4……1050
      6-11……918
      6-17……819
      6-24……819
      7-1……..676

      Anyone seeing any sort of a trend here?

    4. Robbie says:

      Phil

      It’s a positive trend. If we get through the next two weeks or so without seeing a rise in deaths, it would confirm that the cases are mostly in younger people less likely to die and/or the virus has mutated into a weaker form.

      Lets hope for both.

    5. Tgca says:

      Seis Bebe! Seis I say!

    6. PresidentPaul! says:

      #5
      I don’t think you grasp that the mortality rates are mostly dependent on ICU’s being overwhelmed. When you have one person who has the virus in Vietnam they get fast and early intubation and sit on the vent for 2 months like they did with round the clock care.

      The reason the mortality rate in NY was so bad was because the system just became overwhelmed. As long as it’s not overwhelmed, this doesn’t happen.

    7. Pole Harris says:

      Oh you non-believers,

      I told you so! OAN and Gravis are 100% unbiased! These polls do not even need reweighting.

      Remember who is the greatest of them all, that is ME- POLE HARRIS the GREAT!

      -Pole Harris

    8. Phil says:

      Yeah, with deaths being a lagging indicator you’d expect deaths to really spike in the next two weeks. If they don’t then, yeah, that would confirm it’s the younger set is who is getting infected. I believe strongly that is what’s happening.

      Actually, I believe Texas, Florida, Arizona, and California are simply finally getting hit with the first wave – just later than the northeast. Case numbers in the northeast are way down because they already achieved near herd protection. Deaths there are also way down for the same reason plus the governors of NY, NJ, Pa, Connecticut killed off the most vulnerable in the nursing homes relatively quickly with their stupid decisions.

      Texas deaths will go up some but nothing like in NY. Abbott, unlike, Cuomo, moved quickly to protect Nursing homes and the elderly.

      IHME has Texas numbers rising, but like NY, NJ they will peak and start back down again.

      The country is simply peaking in different sections at different times. It was never going to be uniform, but on balance daily deaths should drop nationally Overall by another 20% through the summer.

    9. dblaikie says:

      Two weeks? Most people develop symptoms between the 5th to the 7th Day after exposure. Memorial Day was a month ago. If fatalities were going to spike we would have already seen it.

      I am getting persuaded by Univ of Penn docs who claim the virus is weakening.

    10. dblaikie says:

      Two weeks? Most people develop symptoms between the 5th to the 7th Day after exposure. Memorial Day was a month ago. If fatalities were going to spike we would have already seen it.

      I am getting persuaded by Univ of Penn docs who claim the virus is weakening.

    11. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      “found a different electorate in Arizona.”

      -or more correctly they assembled an online panel of 527 registered likely voters, “balanced it demographically” as pollsters now do, and surveyed the pre-selected panel online. It is like baking a cake, you mix the ingredients in a way you know those who paid for it will find tasty.

      When most the population had landlines, polling was viewed as being generally more accurate; and most polls were based on standard methodologies that allowed for their review to determine accuracy.

      Now pollsters are recruiting “panels of voters” from the internet; then subjectively “balancing” them demographically. Often the process is tainted by the political leanings of those paying for the poll – who will be disappointed if the results are not what they expect.

      Given the current state of what “polling” has become, any chance that present polling will reflect actual election results is coincidental. An accurate poll is one that correctly guesses an election outcome twice.

      I find trends in an individual poll numbers more valuable. How do a candidates current numbers compare with the poll’s prior results. If there is a pattern happening in multiple polls, it likely is an accurate reflection of what direction the political winds are blowing.

    12. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      11. Also, there has been a massive increase in testing recently. Many more people are being tested who are healthy with no symptoms. Am not sure the virus is weakening (although it well could be) but testing is now focusing more on those who are healthy enough not to get sick.

    13. UgandanAttorney says:

      SDC,

      The mode was IVR as to landlines but online panel as to cellphone users because the latter cannot be polled through IVR.

    14. NYCmike says:

      https://twitter.com/heckyessica/status/1278488133680664576

      -Was it Rick Monday who grabbed the flag in the outfield??

    15. VictrC says:

      Yes it was. It was in Wrigley I think, or Dodger Stadium, one of the two

    16. MichiganGuy says:

      Woman hits a police horse.
      .
      https://twitter.com/ColoradosMark/status/1278505316083134464?s=20
      .
      Instant Karma LOL

    17. Cash Cow TM says:

      …2020 Primary election COSTS–WV…
      PUBLIC SERVICE INFO PROVIDED BY CASH COW

      **********************************
      STATE of WV costs for the 2020 Primary were obviously higher than usual. WV urged citizens here to do MAIL IN ballots due to coronavirus pandemic.

      >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
      USUALLY, ABOUT 3% OF WV VOTERS DO MAIL IN ABSENTEE BALLOTS in a presidential primary.

      THIS YEAR,
      436,000 people voted in WV 2020 primary
      224,734 ballots were cast by mail–MORE THAN 50%.

      COST:

      Governor used $800,000 in contingency money to pay for cost of sending out post cards to ALL RVs that they had to return if they wanted to get a mail in absentee ballot mailed to them.

      THEN…WV SOS spent about $4.5 million to support the primary election (Nearly $3.8 MM came from Federal CARES Act–the other $$$ had to come from WV SOS budget provided with STATE tax revenue).
      ********************************
      Not sure how much each (and all) of the 55 COUNTIES spends on conducting elections…BUT Kanawha county (largest in State) says they spent about $500,000 EXTRA (postage and hiring extra workers) in order to handle / process all the mail in ballots.

      WV SOS office says reimbursement requests still coming in from county clerks’ offices, Warner estimated that the special circumstances of the election would cost about half of that $4.5 million (referenced above).

      About $550,000 has been spent SO FAR on labor, and another $500,000 was spent on personal protective equipment for employees, poll workers and voters (to cover counties extra election costs for 12 of WV’s 55 counties who have so far sent in requests for reimbursements).

      &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&

      THIS ELECTION WAS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE EXPENSIVE!
      ———————————————–
      SO FAR, the cost to the STATE is more than $10 per vote cast…

      AND you need to add in the normal cost of the primary election spent by COUNTY governments…

      plus, I guess, the amortized annual cost of the voting machines…

    18. John says:

      How in the world does Change Research have Biden +7 in Arizona and Gravis has Trump +4?

    19. prineville says:

      No way, shape or form does dementia joe win arizona. Zero chance.

    20. Idealistic Fatalist says:

      Comforting numbers to be sure. But we have many miles to go before we sleep, ladies and gentlemen.

      Sen. McSally will continue to concern me – as she seems a tad lacking in political acumen.

      We’ll see…

    21. Sheeple,Jr. says:

      Polling by the NRSC conducted at the end of June allegedly showed Susan Collins up 8 on Sara Gideon.
      https://bangordailynews.com/2020/07/01/opinion/contributors/susan-collins-did-her-job-sara-gideon-didnt/(H/T: RRH)

      WARNING: NO SKEWING AT HHR!!!

    22. Sheeple,Jr. says:

      Except for Daines(R) in the Senate race,who trails by 4, this all online Montana poll has good news for the GOP.
      I hope and suspect that the MT Senate race will parallel the 2018 Senate race in TN between Bredesen(D) and Blackburn(R), which showed “popular” ex-Governor Bredesen trouncing Blackburn until the actual results came-in, which gave her a double digit victory.

      https://www.umt.edu/bigskypoll/Polls/summer2020/summer2020—aggregate.pdf

      WARNING: NO SKEWING AT HHR!!!

    23. Gordon Allen says:

      The reason one poll has +7(Biden)) and one +4 Trump is that they’re worthless. Can we stop obsessing over polls completely?

    24. Messy says:

      Gavis Marketing must have faked it.

    25. Country Dick Montana says:

      Unfortunately, I don’t think McSally beats Mr. Gabby Giffords. He is a woke astronaut married to a shooting victim. Even though he is a gun control nut, the sympathy vote will be too hard to overcome.

    26. Messy says:

      24. No. that’s what this site is for, don’cha know?

    27. Scooterboy says:

      BBC; USA “June jobs creation expected to be the highest in history surpassing previous record on May”

    28. Scooterboy says:

      NEWS: Millions of New Gun Owners After Record-Breaking June

      Americans bought 2.3M guns during June, up 145% since June 2019. Many retailers report that their inventory is drained.

      Since March, 8.3M guns have been sold – a pace likely to make 2020 the highest year in history.

    29. Scooterboy says:

      June: 4.8 MILLION JOBS ADDED vs 2.9 million estimate.

    30. Messy says:

      Most of those were laid-off workers who went back to work just before the “relapse.”