Evening Open Thread
Well my attemting tinkering didn’t work. Here is an open thread to keep every bust for the time being.
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Evening Open ThreadWell my attemting tinkering didn’t work. Here is an open thread to keep every bust for the time being. COMMENTS CLOSED
53 Responses to “Evening Open Thread” |
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Darn, I was about to go to sleep. Anyone home?
I think that the tracking polls will definately tick upwards for Bush starting tomorrow. Both ABC/WP and Rammuson were both done entirely over the weekend and yesterday which was a holiday. Anyone with kids does not have any free time on a weekend like the last one. Busy getting ready for Halloween.
jayhawk,
I agree but that Monday sample will act as an anchor on Bush’s numbers until Friday so I expect any upwards growth to be measured.
-Polaris
Polaris, That sounds right to me.
jayhawk,
Even more signs of a Bush movement. Dem Corps (and openly partisan firm run by Carville) has Bush moving up by 2 since last week to +1 Bush (vice +1 Kerry last week). This is probably due to the second debate. Also other signs are all pointing to a Bush win…but we can’t get complacent.
-Polaris
Will Gallup be coming out with a new poll after Wednesday’s debate?
Rachel,
I don’t know. Best guess? I think they will come out with a Saturday or Sunday poll based on samples on Thurs-Sat. I think Gallup wants a post debate poll.
That’s just a guess though.
-Polaris
BAsed on these comments John Edwards should leave the country. He is promising things no one can promise… except foor god who can deliver…
http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/10/12/edwards.stem.cell/index.html
So I went to a University Party over the weekend. My wife and I went with my inlaws so we wouldn’t have to drive our car. Afterwards my wife said it was a good thing we didn’t drive our car, which has a Bush sticker on it, otherwise everyone else would have played the game, guess the republicans. I think we were the only republicans there. It was actually pretty funny, because everyone else assumed that everyone else was a democrat and so they let there hair down so to speak. Very interesting conversations.
Well, hopefully the dip with this last one will help Bush’s bounce after the last debate. (fingers crossed)
I read the rants over at the DailyKos occasionally for a good laugh. I can judge how well Bush is doing by the anger over there.
http://www.9news.com/acm_news.aspx?OSGNAME=KUSA&IKOBJECTID=8ac173fd-0abe-421a-011e-5ce7dfcf561e&TEMPLATEID=0c76dce6-ac1f-02d8-0047-c589c01ca7bf
This is just great. The fraud is on the rise. Check out Drudge.
Rachel,
I agree. Kerry isn’t doing so hot by that standard.
The new IBD poll is posted. Yet another poll showing a move to Bush. Not sure I trust IBD but there it is.
-Polaris
Fraud doesn’t suprise me…although because of it, I am starting to think that maybe WE ought to use pernament marker to mark all voters on election day. I hate to think that we have sunk to the level of a third world nation….but that’s what happens when you PAY by the registration…and ask ex-felons to do it (ACT is especially guilty of this).
-Polaris
Yeah…with Edwards promising the end of paralysis…all those people in wheel chairs only have 20 days before they can jump out of them and start walking. Does this mean that we can do away with handicapped parking spaces?
Edwards Stem Cell Vision: ‘We will stop juvenile diabetes, Parkinson’s, Alzheimer’s and other debilitating diseases… When John Kerry is president, people like Christopher Reeve are going get up out of that wheelchair and walk again.’ Edwards made the unprecedented campaign promises during 30-minute speech at Newton High School gym in Newton, Iowa..
Vote for Kerry and BE HEALED!
Shame that KE04 has sunk to the level of snake-oil salesmen…and not very good ones at that.
-Polaris
These polls are driving me crazy. Regarding the ICR and IBD polls, you can definitely tell Nader is hurting Kerry, if these polls are accurate. There is a 2 point shift in both polls in the direction of Kerry.
A bunch of polls just released. First from SurveyUSA (some are pointless):
Oregon
53-44, Kerry leads
Kansas
57-38, Bush leads
Rhode Island
56-36, Kerry leads
Texas
60-37, Bush leads
New York
58-35, Kerry leads
Second batch of polls is from the Chicago Tribune:
Ohio
49-45, Kerry leads
Wisconsin
47-43-2, Kerry leads
Minnesota
45-43-2, Kerry leads
Iowa
47-45-1, Bush leads
Not sure how good chicago tribune is, and the MOE (+-4.4) is kinda high, but I know what to expect from the partisans out there.
I can’t believe he promised that. I’m sure a lot of scientists are scratching their heads at that one. Al Gore invented the internet, and now Edwards is promising to cure all diabetes, Parkinson’s, and paralysis while he’s vice-pres.
Oops, hubby need to use the computer. I have GOT to get a laptop!!!
Alex,
I don’t buy the Ohio and Wisconson results from the Tribune. Not with that high a MOE and not when they are out of line with the other polls out there.
Kerry is NOT four points up in Ohio. No way.
-Polaris
Alex,
As for Survey USA, pretty much all those polls except OR are pointless and even the OR one is no real shock.
-Polaris
Not even the most aggressive tele-evangelist faith healer promises so much.
Alex,
Do you have a polling period for those polls? Interested in knowing how fresh they are and what time period they were taken in.
-Polaris
Yeah, he is another case of voter fraud. And for those who think only democrats are trying to do it, well, you are wrong.
http://www.klas-tv.com/Global/story.asp?S=2421595&nav=168XRvNe
And by the way, here is Edwards’s actual quote:
“We will do stem cell research,” he vowed. “We will stop juvenile diabetes, Parkinson’s, Alzheimer’s and other debilitating diseases. America just lost a great champion for this cause in Christopher Reeve. People like Chris Reeve will get out of their wheelchairs and walk again with stem cell research.”
He does overstate the power of stem cell research, but he does not say if Kerry is elected, people in wheelchairs would be able to walk again.
They were taken 10/9-10/11, and they polled 500 likely voters.
Afterall, both Kerry and Edwards are secularists and God won’t do them any favors.
Kerry is taking the night off to watch his team get spanked by the yankees tonight. 6-0 top of the 4th.
Has anybody heard of Elmer Anderson? She is a republican from Minnesota who decided to endorse Kerry. The key thing here is that she is from Minnesota.
Alex,
In short, they were done over the holiday weekend. That explains some of it, but really. The Tribune’s results are 8 points more in favor of Kerry than the other polls out there. That’s why I tend not to believe them…and the high MOE makes me cringe as well.
-Polaris
The Chicago Tribune polls are bull….
Alex,
In Fairness, the Minn and Iowa numbers seem about right. I just think that the Wis and OH numbers are bad…especially given the Minn and IA Numbers.
-Polaris
Alex,
You’d have to ask Scotsmac. You can always find somebody that will cross over to crow about. That applies to both parties.
-Polaris
Today Zogby, TIPP, CBS, and Dem. Corps all showed movement towards Bush. All of these polls are suspected of being biased towards Kerry so you would have to conclude that any movement towards Bush needs to be taken seriously. The ICR and Gallup poll and even the ABC half of their tracking poll stayed consistent with their previous results. The Washington Post half of the shared sample and Rassmussen showed a slight correction towards Kerry. It is my belief that the Washington Post poll needed a correction from their six point result yesterday. The bottom line of all this is that George has a small bit of momentum going into tommorows debate.
I am not a person who puts much stock in averaging poll numbers because each poll uses different means and methods to achieve their various results. I do look for trends within each poll. So when CBS shows movement from their last poll I take that seriously. The same is true with the TIPP and the Dem. Corps poll. When Time and Newsweek and Gallup all showed Bush going from a lead to a tie after the first debate I knew that the momentum had switched in the race even though I believed that their samples were over weighted. I now beieve that starting with the VP debate and especially after last Friday’s debate the momentum has switched again. After John Kerry’s inane comments about wanting terrorism to be just a nuisance I think that his last chance to regain the momentum will be tommorrow night. George Bush has his second chance to put this race away. I wonder if he will grab his opportunity?
I am too tired to have anything profound to say. Good Night!
Hey TinaG, dont forget about us Boston Republicans. Some of us are good guys and our team’s getting whupped right now!
Todd,
I wouldn’t go quite so far as to call the Chicago Tribune polls bull..not until I looked at the internals and methedology at any rate. I do think they are suspiciously alone in what they are reporting, however (in the case of Wis and OH).
-Polaris
GO Soxs! Kerry just says he is a fan.
Polaris,
What do you do for a living? You and the other Tina really get into the numbers.
Duke,
I got my PHD in Physics (Particle Phenomenology) and analyze field theoretic and statistical models for a living.
-Polaris
Thanks, I have learned alot from your comments.
Here are the requirements for attending a Bush rally in Oregon this week:
1. be a registered Republican
2. write an essay about why Bush should be president
3. promise to support Bush
He’s really reaching out to those undecideds!
Joe,
Unless you can show those are really the requirements, I wouldn’t make such claims. AFAIK most Bush rallies merely require that you give contact information. Tickets are usually first come and first serve. In fairness, It think Kerry has the same policy for the most part.
-Polaris
BTW Joe,
Unless Oregon is radically different from the Washington (and Oregon) that I was raised in, you don’t register by party.
-Polaris
I have heard a lot about the requirements that joe shmoe has talked about, but my wife who is an independetn was invited to a GW speech, did not have to sign anything or promise to support him. I thi nk the liberal democrats who send their henchmen out, are making these things up.
I’m out here on the West Coast and just got done watchin the CBS with Dan Rather (as a goof because I hadn’t watched him in a while. It was pretty grim for Bush, if you listen to them. Their cheif political reporter describes how Bush’s job approval is according to a recent poll at 43% and the bottom is dropping out at the worst possible time. No mention of WHOSE poll that was or any other mention of the new national polls that have Bush up.
Yes folks, I am happy to report that CBS is as big a joke as everyone thinks it is.
Dan Rather,
Now there’s a fair and balanced look at the political news…..Riiight. I don’t know of ANY poll that has President Bush’s JA at 43% nor can I think of ANY poll that shows the bottom dropping out of Bush’s support. Quite the opposite in fact.
-Polaris
Um Elmer Lee Anderson? or “Clyde” Elmer Anderson?
If you mean “Clyde” Elmer Anderson…
It would really be something if he endorsed Kerry seeing that he died in 1998. Although Democrats are good at getting the Dead to Vote or channeling their thoughts.
Elmer Lee Anderson was the Liberal Republican Govenor in 1962 when he lost the closest race ever for Governor of Minnesota by 91 votes or something like .007%. He is currently like 95 or 96 years old. He has no political influence in the state at this time. Although I do beleive he has supported Liberal Democrats for President in the past.
Has anybody heard of Elmer Anderson? She is a republican from Minnesota who decided to endorse Kerry. The key thing here is that she is from Minnesota.
Comment by Alex — 10/12/2004 @ 9:42 pm
I should Clarify “clyde” Elmer Anderson was also a Republican Govenor of Minnesota in the early 1950’s.
Scotsmac, my guess is its the governor who is alive. Here is a link:
http://www.startribune.com/stories/1519/5029512.html
Polaris, I agree, this endorsement and other endorsements for that matter don’t really matter much. I also agree the Ohio and Wisconsin polls are likely outliers since no other poll have verified those leads for Kerry.
Alex,
Nice we can agree on something
I will also agree that Kerry will fight Ohio to the bitter end even if Bush’s lead extends. He has to or he concedes the race.
-Polaris
As I said Elmer Anderson regardless of what he said about standing beside the Republican Party in the State was on the Left in the Party and doesn’t have any political Pull left.