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Monday Night Polls

redelbov mentioned these earlier, but for the record the latest numbers from Scott Rasmussen.

PRESIDENT – COLORADO (Rasmussen)
Barack Obama (D) 51%
John McCain (R) 47%

PRESIDENT – FLORIDA (Rasmussen)
John McCain (R) 50%
Barack Obama (D) 49%

PRESIDENT – OHIO (Rasmussen)
John McCain (R) 49%
Barack Obama (D) 49%

PRESIDENT – NORTH CAROLINA (Rasmussen)
John McCain (R) 50%
Barack Obama (D) 49%

PRESIDENT – MISSOURI (Rasmussen)
John McCain (R) 49%
Barack Obama (D) 49%

PRESIDENT – VIRGINIA (Rasmussen)
Barack Obama (D) 51%
John McCain (R) 47%

All these polls were done November 2nd among 1000 likely voters. Another poll from North Carolina from Survey USA puts McCain barely ahead.

PRESIDENT – NORTH CAROLINA (Survey USA)
John McCain (R) 495
Barack Obama (D) 48%

US SENATE – NORTH CAROLINA (Survey USA)
Kay Hagan (D) 505
Elizabeth Dole (R) 435

This poll was done October 30-November 2 among 682 likely voters. Among those 57% who already voted however, Obama is ahead 56%-41%. Strategic Vision is out with their final polls in Ohio and Florida.

PRESIDENT – OHIO (Strategic Vision)
John McCain (R) 48%
Barack Obama (D) 46%

PRESIDENT – FLORIDA (Strategic Vision)
Barack Obama (D) 49%
John McCain (R) 47%

These polls were done October 31-November 2 among 1200 likely voters.

I am off to sign duty with a few others putting up the McCain/Palin signs up at 12-14 locations. Then it is off to Monday Night Football to watch a match up between two teams spawned by the devil himself – Pittsburgh Steelers versus Washington Redskins – I mean really, who do you root for in that….

Posted by Dave at 6:10 pm
Filed under: 2008 President,2008 US Senate | Comments (331)

331 Responses to “Monday Night Polls”

  1. Ice Cream Man says:

    First

  2. Jaded says:

    McCain/Palin are going to blow this election apart and take the media wing of the Democrat party with it….and the “conservative” concubines…Noonan, Will, Parker down along with them.

  3. Polaris says:

    From below:

    Yes, Rasmussen has always overpolled Denver and the inflated Obama-leaning Indy figure as well as Dem overweight seems to confirm it this time too.

    Found the C-BS poll (the latest one). Fisking now….

    First of all the C-BS poll confirms what we’ve suspected all along about the undecided vote:

    This campaign’s uncommitted voters are mostly white, and the majority is 45 or older. Nearly half describe themselves as politically moderate and 43 percent are independent. Almost 40 percent live in the South. There are slightly more Democrats (30 percent) than Republicans (20 percent) among the group

    Do these sound like “undecided” voters to you? Didn’t think so. I’ll give you three guesses which way these break and the first two don’t count.

    Obama leads independants according to this poll 46% to 43% and partisan strength is about the same for both [Dems support Obama 88-9 while GOP support McCain 85-12]

    They don’t give the raw numbers…so reverse calculating partisan weight:

    I get a really strange weight of 28.9D/21.0R/51.1I this is a D+8 poll in any event.

    Redoing this for 2006 splits we get:

    Obama: 49.7
    McCain: 45.2

    Which is in line with a lot of the tracking polls. Of course given the weird splits, I think that both numbers are actually lower than this given the reported 9% undecideds.

    -Polaris

  4. JB says:

    Redskins, of course, according to some odd predictor, Redskins win signals the party in power in WH stays in power.

    McCain / Palin 2008!

  5. Brutus says:

    #4

    White House or Congress?

    I thought it was WH from the talking heads on MNF in ’04

  6. cheesehead says:

    Karl Rove map = 538 map – NC

    KR lists as his resources:

    * RealClearPolitics
    * FiveThirtyEight.com
    * PollingReport.com
    * Pollster.com blogs

    It’s nothing other than averaging the same old stuff.

  7. Houston says:

    Fyi, the SurveyUSA poll of PA that showed Obama up 10 had a D+16 sample.

    The SurveyUSA poll of NC having McCain up by 1 had a D+10 sample.

    The SurveyUSA of MO having it tied had a D+5 sample.

    The SurveyUSA poll of GA had a D+2 sample.

    The SurveyUSA poll of OH had a D+6 sample.

  8. JAF says:

    Go for the Skins! If they win that means the incumbent party wins. And in 2004 they lost but GW still won. So it is just a stupid media gimmick. Anyway, let’s pray that Polaris is correct and that the top line in all these polls is Obama’s absolute max and he will once again underperform his final polls!

  9. Drowsy says:

    Well, in the words of the “ball coach”, f*%^^$^n Phil Fullmer is gone at rocky top.

    Apparently the two don’t get along.

  10. esquire says:

    Been following this blog for a few months. Thanks to the regulars for all your work. You kept my confidence up this Fall, we’re going to do this, we’re going rock this one out!

  11. Drowsy says:

    #8

    Honestly, if the gimmick don’t work, I’d rather that the PA populace have a good night for themselves. Happy campers for McCain.

  12. Polaris says:

    #7 I’m sensing a pattern here. The polls think there will be a lot of Democrats. I’m just not seeing it.

    -Polaris

  13. Monty Stricker says:

    Regardless of the outcome tomorrow, the MSM is dead as disco. I guess we’ll nationalize them next.

  14. l8r says:

    2: “McCain/Palin are going to blow this election”

    Actually, they already did. As we all know, the Palin pick was a cynical tactical choice of an unqualified candidate by an erratic campaign in freefall. Didn’t fall for it.

    The McCain of 2000 would never have stooped to that.

  15. jones says:

    Troll, read the whole

  16. jones says:

    Troll, read the whole

  17. jones says:

    Sorry, no idea how I did that.

  18. cheesehead says:

    #2, Jaded: Wait…even Peggy Noonan is now back on board!

    Another sign of a Mac surge?

    “Video: Peggy Noonan votin’ for … McCain”

    http://hotair.com/archives/2008/11/03/video-peggy-noonan-votin-for-mccain/

  19. DrJay says:

    #3 Polaris, is CBS reading Hedgehog Report? After I pointed out their oddball weighting yesterday, today’s release has all of the numbers hidden!

  20. Ponz says:

    #14: Why is Obama more qualified than Palin? Please provide a coherent answer that cites experience, records and judgement.

  21. todd says:

    12—of course you don’t see it. You will tomorrow though.

  22. hugh says:

    If we lose tomorrow. IF….I think the house republicans mishandling of the financial meltdown was the beginning of the end. Using some tact they could have gotten everything we got and McCain would not have been made the fool by them. Why is it that so many conservatives can not be conservative and pragmatic at times? I am so disgusted with the rightwing of my party, where I am firmly rooted. I have never even voted once for dem since 1980 and I am a social and fiscal conservative and I now rarely listen to the likes of Rush who used to do so much to help republicans get elected, but could not be pragmatic at a time when our country really needed it. Arrghh. Go Mac!!! You deserved more from your base, even if you used to irritate me on a regular basis.

  23. lisab says:

    from yesterday,

    “as guido the killer pimp says:

    “HUSSEIN, you look like a smart kid. i’m going to tell you something I’m sure you’ll understand. you’re having fun now, right? right, HUSSEIN? the time of your life.

    in a sluggish economy, never ever f with another man’s livelihood. now, if you’re smart, and i hope you are, you’re not gonna make me come back here.””

  24. Michael D. says:

    Todd go way…your boring.

  25. lisab says:

    because obama is Risky Business

    as knighthawk said 🙂

  26. Viceroy Argus says:

    I’ve been a lurker who has posted a few times the past couple of days.

    Before we get too deep into tomorrow, I want to thank Polaris and others here for introducing me a couple of months ago to critical examination of these polls. Their approach has been perfectly reasonable.

    Let’s hope the voters prove their theory tomorrow night.

  27. Polaris says:

    #20 You noticed that did you? I had to reverse calculate the partisan weights which is tricky to do well. However the near tie with Indie voters makes the spread easy to see. The “new” CBS poll is D+8.

    Of course they wanted to make that as hard as possible to see…..

    -Polaris

  28. L TePaske says:

    PN must be reading Hedgehog, she started off by saying it would be an interesting next 24 hours

  29. Jaded says:

    You know what cheesehead….it is to late for Noonan and her ILK….they are nothing BUT wh_ _ es for the media wing of the Democrat party….

    You are either with US or against US (hattip to President George Bush).

  30. gaGOP says:

    Mystery – Very Winnable. 273 is the magic number and I believe most likely result for a McCain victory:

    Mac wins:
    FL, OH, NC, GA, IN, MO, PA, NV

    Obama wins:
    VA, CO, NM

  31. DrJay says:

    There is a SUSA poll out for Kanjorski’s district 11 in PA.

    Barletta 51-45

    Anyone know what to make of this portion for the presidential race? Mdfl, et al?
    Obama 53-43 (D+16)

  32. Jaded says:

    Obama is NOT winning VA…..I tell you I have been on the ground here and making calls and once you leave the “communist” area’s of Alexandria, Falls Church, etc THERE are more and more McCain/Palin people. It is just like in PA this won’t even be close I predict McCain by 4-6 in VA.

  33. Polaris says:

    Hmm, if I were a suspicious sort of person (which I am), I think that Peggy Noonan might be suddenly having doubts about just how “inevitable” Obama’s election tomorrow really is.

    Heh.

    -Polaris

  34. L TePaske says:

    #23 You are so right, The house Reps are a bunch of, expletive deleted, idiots that have the foresight of a loser and no loyality to anyone but themselves.

  35. Cory says:

    That CBS poll is more likely to be:

    D – 34.5
    R – 28
    I – 37.5

    So, a D +6.5 party id.

  36. Polaris says:

    I’ve made my predicition and I’m sticking with it.

    -Polaris

  37. cheesehead says:

    Bill Kristol on Brit Hume’s panel suggests McCain can win via Delbove Curve (OK, he didn’t refer to it like we do here at HH). He has a campaign source.

    But he said Obama will rack up huge blue state votes, while McCain can win narrowly in battlegrounds. Mac can lose PV by 2.5-3% and win EV.

    Fred Barnes agrees with BK.

    Nina Easton, on the other hand, since she’s a Palin-hater, thinks Obama will win VA and it will be a short night.

  38. knova_red says:

    35-actually you could be describing just about any politician. They are all selfish crooks, it just that the republicans are my crooks.

  39. Howard Dean says:

    Jaded, Nice!

  40. Benni says:

    Obama-McCain

    Alabama (09) 35.5/60.4
    Alaska (03) 38.3/57.5
    Arizona (10) 40.3/55.7
    Arkansas (06) 44.0/51.4

    California (55) 56.1/41.0
    !Colorado (09) 49.2/50.1
    Connecticut (07) 52.6/39.8

    Delaware (03) 56.6/39.3
    DC (03) 95.0/05.0

    !Florida (27) 47.4/52.0
    Georgia (15) 43.9/54.1

    Hawaii (04) 63.6/29.9

    Idaho (04) 30.8/63.0
    Illionois (21) 54.7/40.9
    Indiana (11) 43.8/53.4
    Iowa (07) 49.3/47.2

    Kansas (06) 37.4/58.2
    Kentucky (08) 41.1/56.4

    Louisana (09) 39.6/55.9

    Maine (04) 50.2/46.2
    Maryland (10) 56.5/37.8
    Massachusetts (12) 56.1/40.0
    Michigan (17) 51.2/47.3
    !Minnesota (10) 50.0/47.2
    Mississippi (06) 41.7/53.1
    !Missouri (11) 47.5/50.5
    Montana (03) 42.9/52.9

    Nebraska (05) 35.9/56.0
    !Nevada (05) 48.5/48.8

    !New Hampshire(04) 49.7/50.4
    New Jersey (15) 51.2/44.2
    !New Mexiko (05) 50.5/46.7
    New York (31) 58.4/38.7
    !North Carolina (15) 45.4/53.3
    North Dakota (03) 43.0/51.0
    !Ohio (20) 45.8/52.3
    Oklahoma (07) 32.3/63.1
    Oregon (07) 50.9/46.9
    !Pennsylvania (21) 49.0/49.3

    Rhode Island (04) 48.5/32.5

    South Carolina (08) 42.6/54.6
    South Dakota (03) 40.0/54.3

    Tennessee (11) 42.2/52.9
    Texas (34) 40.6/54.5

    Utah (05) 28.3/61.8

    Vermont (03) 57.7/36.1
    !Virginia (13) 48.4/50.0
    Washington (11) 53.7/45.5
    West Virginia (05) 43.3/53.4
    !Wisconsin (10) 51.0/47.5
    Wyoming (03) 34.4/61.0

  41. Mose says:

    Kerry won PA-11 by 5.7% over Bush in 2004, 52.7% to 47.0%.

    http://www.2008racetracker.com/page/PA-11?t=anon

    If Obama is leading in the same district by 10, then he is doing better than Kerry did in the district. Not good.

  42. Polaris says:

    #36 Not this again Cory.

    Look, the fact that Indies are a near tie makes it very easy to detemine what the Dem advantage has to be. CBS is a D+8 poll.

    Riddle me this Cory: If it were slimmer, then why would CBS go to such lengths to try to hide it. It’s the first CBS poll all cycle that DOES NOT include the raw sample data so we wouldn’t be having this stupid discussion.

    -Polaris

  43. Benni says:

    Tina;Polaris;Frank and Howard

    will you be here tomorrow??

  44. Jim says:

    I don’t understand why it’s so hard for some folks to believe that the party ID spread this year is up toward +6 or +7 Dem. I gather that we all agree that the 2006 spread was D+3.

    Party ID has been fairly steady, as some point out, since about 1980. But the public mood today is worse for Republicans than at any time since before 1980, & certainly worse by far than 2006.

    Bush is more unpopular than in 2006, the right/wrong direction numbers are worse thanin 2006, & most of all the public mood on the economy is vastly more negative than in 2006.

    Voters’ identification with a party responds to major emotional events–and all 3 of these events are worse in the public mind than 2 yrs ago. It would be strange indeed if the impact of these developments didn’t widen the pro-Democratic spread in voter ID. Personally, I think we are darned lucky if it’s ONLY 6 or 7% now. We haven’t seen this bad an anti-Republican moods since 1974, and the Dems had a 15%-plus lead in party ID then.

    It says a lot for the positive impact of Reagan on public perceptions of the GOP that in a year comparable in its mood to 1974 that we are still much closer to the Dems in party loyalty. But to imagine that we are only 3% down as we were in 06 is unrealistic, I’m afraid.

    You can gauge the depth of the anti-GOP mood by the fact that we are getting clobbered in the congressional races: losing probably 7 in the Senate and over 20 in the House. No party has suffered such losses in a presidential year without also losing the presidency.

    So by all means let’s hope that McCain can buck 200 years of political history, but let’s be realistic enough to admit that it is highly unlikely.

  45. Howard Dean says:

    Mose, But is D +16 accurate for that district?

  46. Howard Dean says:

    Benni, Yes. Though i will be gone from 1-4pm PST.

  47. mpthompson says:

    As a Polipundit refuge, I’m very happy to have been hanging out here the last few days for some sane, rational thought and optimism. Thanks everyone.

  48. Jim says:

    At least Kanjorski is going down in PA-11. Now if we could get Murtha, too, that would almost make me up for the overall drubbing we’re going to take in the House.

  49. Polaris says:

    It’s really very simple Cory. Obama according to the CBS poll is up by nine with McCain and Obama getting about the same amount of support from their parties (about a net of 75%). The Indie vote is tied so that’s irrelevant.

    The only way this happens is if the Dems are badly overweighted (8-12pts). You can do make this first order calculation just on the back of a napkin without any algebra whatsoever.

    -Polaris

  50. L TePaske says:

    Cory You’ve got a minnie France in Canada, why do you want a much larger one to you South?

  51. Tina says:

    Benni, si. Here and at RP.

    I have no new updates to provide.

    I am sticking to my prediction.

    If I am Wrong, so be it. I will continue to stick my middle finger up to the Obamabots at this site and in general.

  52. Howard Dean says:

    Analysis: Obama can win popular vote but still lose presidency

    Yahoo headline

    DUH!

  53. Monty Stricker says:

    Got this off Ace’s site:

    Just listened to some guy on the radio (David Jeffers) talk about internal GOP polling that has McCain ahead in PA, MI, and NJ.

    http://tinyurl.com/689r56

  54. Howard Dean says:

    Murtha is going down.

  55. Tina says:

    Duh is right. Does not seem to me that the Obumbler can win OH, VA, NC, and MO.

  56. Howard Dean says:

    #54 That is bogus.

    Mac is not up in MI or NJ.

  57. Polaris says:

    #45 Are you kidding me?! You are seriously trying to tell me that the public mood agains the GOP is worse than in 2006 with Foley, the Iraq war, et al?

    If you really think that then I have some beachfront property in Montana I’d like to sell you. The fact is that partisan self-id has been a constant through a lot of recent history (24 years+) and idealogical self-id has been nearly constant for even longer than that.

    To claim otherwise with no evidence for it whatsoever is just stupid IMHO.

    -Polaris

  58. Howard Dean says:

    Duh is right. Does not seem to me that the Obumbler can win OH, VA, NC, and MO.

    Comment by Tina —

    I agree, Mac wins all those states.

    The question is, what about IA, CO, NV, NM and PA?

  59. Steve Z says:

    #41: Benni: What is the basis for those numbers? Do they come from re-adjusting polls for anticipated turnout, or are they just gut-feel estimates?

  60. Tina says:

    I can not believe the last two states.

    Canadian Granholm, the worst Governor in America, should have been defeated in 2006. She has run the state into the ground.

    NJ = Republicans Fool Gold.

    I question if MAC can win PA – a blue state for national elections.

  61. Polaris says:

    #53 Redelbov, take a bow. Someone’s been reading your material here.

    -Polaris

  62. Tina says:

    HD, I have said do not give up on those states. I can believe the internals showing MAC up in Iowa before I can believe internals for MI and NJ.

  63. Tim Van says:

    is this unicorn fantasyland ?

  64. Tina says:

    ***And please no troll comments from the peanut gallary.

    Does not apply to the regulars such as HD.

  65. Tina says:

    Tim Van, you are still around? Sorry, I have not read that many of your posts lately.

  66. mystery says:

    #31 gaGOP…thanks…I am praying…I think I will go to Mac’s site and get some numbers to call….I feel I have to do something….go Mac/Palin!

  67. Jaded says:

    I think the Democrats totally underestimate the Bradley effect and the reverse Bradley effect and I did not come up with that reverse all on my own….the Priest who comes on FOX two weeks ago talked about those who are confessing that they are AFRAID to say they are supporting McCain for fear of being called a racist.

    Now me personally I have McCain/Palin plastered all over the back of my car along with my NRA stickers….so the little jerks can wonder if I have my conceal carry or not!

  68. Mose says:

    46 – I don’t know if D+16 is an accurate partisan split for PA-11. I’ve got an Almanac of American Politics at home that might contain the information, but I’ll be at the office for awhile yet. If anyone else has one and could check it out and post the result, that would be much appreciated.

  69. Tina says:

    An argument can be made that Congress is more unpopular now than in 2006. Actually its reality. The D rat Congress has been the worse Congress ever with Piglosi, Reid, and the lunatics running it.

  70. Mr. Mike says:

    OK, the FOX polls show two things:

    1) Hussein has widened his lead.

    2) The BGs are favoring McCain now.

    Alright, that makes no damn sense what-so-freakin’-ever! One is the opposite of the other.

  71. bonncaruso says:

    I will get back with all you tomorrow night, when the returns are coming in…

  72. Cory says:

    Sorry, those numbers were for a topline of Obama 51, McCain 43.

    I accidentally added one to McCain’s topline number.

    D-34, R-26, I-40 is a more likely breakdown, using the proper numbers.

    So, D+8.

  73. Tina says:

    And we have to consider that the Obama typically underperforms in polling.

    Maybe not all states, but OH, PA, and NH seem critical to me. The ones he underperformed.

  74. Jaded says:

    Mr Mike is that the FOX/Rasmussen poll?

    I tell people to pay attention to the two polls that came the closest in 2004 IBD and Mason Dixon….and draw your conclusions from those….everything else is just NOISE!

  75. cheesehead says:

    #45, Jim: You claim party ID should be D+6-7. The highest it’s been is D+5 in 1996, with a popular incumbent president.

    2008 doesn’t feel at all like 1996. More like 2000 and 2004.

    Furthermore, it’s a surprising fact that while President Bush’s job approval is only 30%, his personal likability is over 50% (see GWU Battleground surveys). In other words, the folks that voted for GWB in 2004 haven’t since then contracted Bush Derangement Syndrome. They still like the guy, just disapprove of some of his actions.

    That suggests to me that the electorate is pragmatic. They don’t seek to punish for past sins; rather, look forward to which candidate will bring the best future.

  76. American Thinker Fan says:

    #58

    I agree Polaris. Also, the Dim +3 was also a reflection of GOP Christians and our “pundits” staying home.

    It would appear that Evangelicals will not stay home.

  77. Tina says:

    Meant overperforms.

    Mike – FOx OD does the national #.

    Rasmussen does Fox’s BG states.

    Different polling firms.

    Its not clear why Fox utilized two different polling firms this go around, especially one who declared the race over with severak weeks ago.

  78. fasteddy says:

    Don’t I remember in 2004 right before the election there was talk from the msm that kerry could win the pop vote and lose the electoral, just like 2000? I guess we know what happened there! Sounds to me like a lot of people are hedging their bets. Not quite as confident as they were a few weeks ago. I think the reality of the polls are catching up with the dems. This is a fight and I don’t think they are ready to duke it out tomorrow.

  79. RyanH says:

    Mr. Mike

    It doesnt make no sense if you consider McCain’s massive ad blitz in the battleground states. What we have seen in the lasat couple of days is that Obama is maintaining a steady lead in the national polls, but his margins in some of the reputable state polls are coming down. It is possible that given McCains limited ad buys before this week that his message has cut through in those states.

  80. rdelbov says:

    Mr. Mike

    You have heard of the DELBOV curve.

    If not the blue states turn bluer well the battleground states become too close to call and Obama’s total lead in popular vote grows

  81. Polaris says:

    #71 Assumption one is incorrect. The Fox poll today sampled more democrats than they should have, and that difference completely accounts for the supposed increase in Obama’s lead.

    -Polaris

  82. mpthompson says:

    Of the states that Obama underperformed the polls by more than 8 points in the primaries against Hillary, how many of those states does he now lead McCain by less than 5 points?

  83. Tina says:

    Actually Mac’s ad spending is 10 million higher than the Obumbler’s in the last 3 days.

    This does not include the 527 ad barrage in key BG states from the sources we already identified here.

  84. Rick Ballard says:

    The ’06 D-R split in PA-11 was 14%. (56/42/2)

  85. Tina says:

    Not to mention the anti-Coal stance of the Obumbler.

    I just wish we had a couple more days…

  86. Tina says:

    Carl Cameron reporting Optisism in Camp MAC.

  87. You know up until today seems like the site takes a breather late night.

    but i feel THR is in for a nonstop posting bender through wednesday morning…or tomorrow night if va goes early to obama and the whole shows over.

    with the state polls tightening as they are yet again in OH/FL/NC/MO/etc
    if mac loses i dont think it will be a landslide in the electoral vote even if it is in the popular vote.

  88. Tina says:

    First positive report from Campaign Carl in a while.

  89. Cascadia says:

    Fox News keeps saying that there has been a record early vote….is that so? I thought the figures didn’t bear that out……..

  90. Bobby says:

    I live in PA-11. It is D+5 according to Cook PVI. NO WAY IT IS +16. That is nuts. Barletta is going to score a resounding victory. This area is full of PUMA’s and COAL MINER FAMILIES AND BLUE COLLAR DEMS.

  91. Mr. Mike says:

    One thing is certain. After tomorrow several polling firms with be worthless in their practices no matter which guy wins.

    Something is going on here folks. I work with several people that have not voted at all in their entire lives or voted in 2000 the last time. These people can’t wait for tomorrow so they can vote McCain and they are willing to stand in line for a couple of hours if that’s what it takes. They are determined in their utter dislike of The One!

  92. cheesehead says:

    #81, rdelbov: Is it DELBOV Curve or Delbove Curve?

    Just want to get the citation correct going forward. 😉

  93. Jaded says:

    I will be here all night tomorrow night I have taken a vacation day for Wednesday…..I will NEED the rest….but it has been on hell of a ride this election season. I want to thank MAC again for picking Sarah SHE is the face of the Republican Party going forward along with Bobby Jindal of LA…..the face is young and agressive and CONSERVATIVE.!

    There will be a PURGE of Rockefeller Republicans…which are really just liberals who like to keep their cash!

  94. Tina says:

    PPP

    Insider Advantage

    They will go away, yes. But rebrand as some other company.

  95. MDefl says:

    D +16 for PA is a joke. If Obama wins PA by 10, I will ban myself from this site for a year and won’t return until 11/05/09.

    Rain in Philly tomorrow. Peggy Noonan can kiss my butt.

  96. Mose says:

    96 – The D+16 (and the Obama 10 point margin) are just for the survey USA poll of PA-11, not the entire state of PA.

  97. RyanH says:

    I have nothing but disdain for Noonan as well. Especially when she ripped on Sarah on the open mic and then claimed she was miquoted only to later reveal her true color and now she is voting MCCain. Save it lady. You have been living off you Reagan laurels for too long.

  98. dblaikie says:

    Words of wisdom from Ed Goeas:

    I’ve been saying for some time that from our polling I think it’s much tighter, a 3-point national race on Friday,” said Ed Goeas, a Republican pollster who consults with the McCain campaign. “I think this race is going to be extremely tight.”

    Goes predicts, as does top McCain pollster Bill McInturff, that Obama will not significantly increase the percentage of young voters or black voters from the last election, voters they say the Democrat needs to come out in record numbers to get over the top in several crucial swing states.

  99. Tina says:

    I only ban myself for 6 months, mdefl.

  100. ho-dogg says:

    Sarah is on C-Span

    Its official – I love this woman

  101. Polaris says:

    Hah! Campaign Carl is also using my 4:1 undecided split completely indepently.

    -Polaris

  102. Big Joe says:

    Tina,

    Please don’t leave. I need you here to defend me 🙂

  103. Tina says:

    Didnt noonan, who I agree with the comments about, endorse MAC.

    This is per Newsbusters.

    She is very irritating to listen to. I have thought this for a decade.

  104. rdelbov says:

    When I 1st discussed the DB curve I did note that campaigns matters. I still believe that if McCain and Palin plus TV ads had been in Michigan for the last three weeks that state would be within 7 or 8 percent range instead of 12 to 14 percent range.

    campaigns matter. McCain had to divvy his money out to the battleground.

    I say again with 135,000,000 voters if Obama wins +12 million in his solid states he will win the popular vote.

    Let me also say if you see 7% GOP defection in these national polls to Obama what’s the GOP defection rate in the NE and Left coast?

  105. Mr. Mike says:

    #102. U go Polaris!

    (slaps Polaris on the back)

  106. Tina says:

    Big Joe, while I disagree with your candidate, you have not posted insane stuff or multiple handles.

    I can work with you next go around and convert you.

  107. Sy says:

    I am reporting premature ejaculation on the part of Chris Mathews tonight.

  108. Frank says:

    Polaris,

    Would you repeat your prediction please? I can’t find it.

    Thanks

    Frank

  109. rdelbov says:

    Yes those polled who are undecided are a good place to look for PUMA and Bradley effect.

    Guess what? will they exit poll? In Western PA I think not.

  110. Tina says:

    Left out used multiple handles. So, we are cool. I know where you are coming from. I think you improved from when you first got here.

    So, you and I have no issues. Disagreements, yes, but nothing personal.

  111. Tina says:

    Was Overbite close to lick it?

  112. Frank says:

    Words of wisdom from Ed Goeas:

    I’ve been saying for some time that from our polling I think it’s much tighter, a 3-point national race on Friday,” said Ed Goeas, a Republican pollster who consults with the McCain campaign. “I think this race is going to be extremely tight.”

    Goes predicts, as does top McCain pollster Bill McInturff, that Obama will not significantly increase the percentage of young voters or black voters from the last election, voters they say the Democrat needs to come out in record numbers to get over the top in several crucial swing states.

    Comment by dblaikie — 11/3/2008 @ 7:19 pm

    Link please.

    Frank

  113. Mr. Mike says:

    #108. I’d Lysol the TV screen after that!

  114. Id love to see a 2000 scenerio in terms of calling a state for obama and then retracting it… would make for an interesting night

  115. Cory says:

    Youth turnout won’t be anything spectacular.

    AA turnout is going to be pretty big though.

    You can start with the D+2.5 from 2006 for a turnout model, and then dial up the AA numbers a couple of notches.

    I get D+4 turnout, and a 5 point Obama win.

  116. Rick Ballard says:

    Polaris,

    What do you make of the fact that less than half the mail-in ballots for Snohomish and King Counties in WA were returned by Saturday? They were sent out on the 15th and have to be postmarked by tomorrow.

    I keep wondering if we’re going to see a ton of “we’re so far ahead, we can’t lose” Dem stay at homes tomorrow. Especially among the under 30’s.

  117. Murphy says:

    108.

    Thanks a lot!!! I just lost my supper.

  118. DrJay says:

    MDefl, is D+16 okay for CD-11?

  119. bonncaruso says:

    National polling average, 15 polls for Monday:

    Obama: 51.26
    McCain: 44.05
    Margin: Obama +7.21

    National polling average minus the largest and smallest margin (possible outliers), making 13 of 15 polls:

    Obama: 51.38
    McCain: 44.29
    Margin: Obama +7.09

    MEAN AVERAGE: 15 and 15 minus 2:

    Obama: 51.32
    McCain: 44.17
    Margin: Obama +7.15

    Almost EXACTLY where I predicted Obama would be going into election day: between 6.5 and 7.5 points.

    Bush margin, GE 2004: 2.46

    This means that Obama is doing 9.61% better than Kerry did in 2004.

    Of the 10, maybe 11 (AZ) RED states Obama is making McCain scramble for, the statistical probability of McCain holding all of those states is: close to 0. Like 1 in 246,000.

    Seeing how the wind is blowing, I predict that Obama will pick up, in addition to IA and NM (which is a given already): CO, NV, VA, NC, OH, FL, MT

    McCain will retain: GA (barely, within 0.7%), ND (though it is statistically in Obama’s column) and AZ. _AZ will be recounted at the recount, according to state law, including the absentee ballots, can take up to 3 weeks.

    I predict that MO will be too close to call and will be recounted and that McCain will eek out a win, and in doing so, MO will lose it’s BELLWETHER status.

    This means that Obama will pick up the entire trifecta, two southern states (VA, NC) and 3 western states (NV, NM, CO).

    Two largest 3 landslides of the election, my prediction:

    DC – Obama by 92 points.
    HI – Obama by 42 points.
    VT – Obama by 36 points.

    Largest McCain landslides:

    OK – McCain by 31 points.
    WY – McCain by 28 points.
    UT – McCain by 25.3 points.

    Those are the current numbers.

  120. Polaris says:

    #109 I put them on the predictions thread a few threads back. My predictions:

    Electoral College: BUSH 2004+NH-NM
    [Yes that means I think Mac wins NV, IA, CO, and VA but loses PA]

    Popular Vote: 50 Mac-49 Ob-1 other

    -Polaris

  121. Andy says:

    Polaris, I think, predicted McCain will get Bush states + NH. I may be wrong though.

  122. Andy says:

    When I grow up, i want to lurk on blogs all day. (Or at least all of November every 4 years)

  123. Polaris says:

    #118 Nothing yet. As long as your ballot is postmarked by (or on) election day, your vote is valid. Washington gets a lot of late absentees.

    -Polaris

  124. Sy says:

    bonncaruso,

    All of your hot air means squat if there is a systemic flaw in the polling, like there was in the Democrat primaries.

  125. 10 reasons why i hope for mccain to win
    1) Nate Silver looks like an ass
    2) Chris Matthews has a nervous breakdown on MSNBC
    3) Keith Olbermann’s head goes SCANNERS
    4) Drudges headline
    5) the rioting will be interesting (and the looting phenomenal @ the circuit city)
    6) Michelles frown collapses into itself and takes her, Obama, and about 1 million Obamorons in chicago out with her, making Illinois all the more purple for 2012.
    7) More of Meghan McCain
    8) Deader-er terrorists
    9) Nancy Pelosi will cry on national TV
    10) Scott Rasmussen will be laughed off any interview.

  126. lisab says:

    “Sarah is on C-Span. Its official – I love this woman” ho-dogg

    i don’t get it. why are you in love with her?

    don’t get me wrong … she is a very accomplished woman, and i will vote for her, but she likes sports, guns, camping and has big boobies … ummmmmmm … ok … nevermind … i answered my own question

  127. Lebanon Rep. says:

    When I voted for Bush twice I didn’t do so because of Cheney….I thought Bush was the better choice over both Gore and Kerry. Don’t let anyone tell you they’re voting for Obama because of Joke Biden. The point is blaming a potential loss on Palin is absurd. You always vote the top of the ticket no matter what. McCain is tried and tested…Obama is not. Heck even Tom Brokaw and Charlie Rose admitted to that last Thursday night on Rose’s show when they both stated they didn’t know who Barack Obama was. One poll had people more upset with Bush/Iraq than they did McCain selecting Palin. If anything she reinvigorated McCain’s chances. It was a great pick because who else could he have selected. Romney and his five homes? Huckabee? I don’t think Huck would have created the crowds that Palin did. Lots of young girls high school and college age really like Palin. Not sure if that translates into votes but they love the fact that a woman got to the #2 slot.

  128. cheesehead says:

    #30, Jaded: I agree with you. My point was the fact that Noonan, a weather vane, is announcing her voting for McCain may be a sign that she sees that McCain might in fact become president. In which case, she wants to get invited to the White House Christmas Party.

  129. dblaikie says:

    Frank the article is at Polico.com. It is entitled “The Republican path to victory” or something like that.

  130. Tina says:

    Rasmussen and Zogby can form a comedy group.

  131. Big Joe says:

    It’s a deal Tina. I may cross party lines to vote Rep if Rudy is on the 2012 ticket. Rudy Rudy Rudy – he shoulda played in IA or NH! Ugh, we’ll never know …

  132. Andy says:

    finn – the lack of socialism isn’t a reason?

  133. Polaris says:

    #117 The “broken glass” vote stayed home in 2006 Cory (like they partially did in 2000). I don’t think they stay home this time, and the AA vote only matters for a couple of swing states. Most states are either too red or too blue for the AA vote to matter.

    -Polaris

  134. Tina says:

    Lisab, stay in doors tomorrow. I plan to because of potential riots and likely rain.

  135. Tina says:

    I went back and forth on Rudy in the primary. However, I sat on the sideline for the primary this go around.

    The first time in forty plus years of Elections.

  136. i place the visual of olbermans grey matter scattered across the set of Countdown a few notches higher than defeating socialism. esp. if they auction off whats left of his ridiculous glasses on eBay.

  137. Mr. Mike says:

    #116. My bet on such a 2000 scenario would be PA. I can definitely see them call PA very early and then retract it two hours later because McCain jumps in the lead.

    If McCain wins PA I’m going to vacation there and spread my wealth around for a week!

  138. Tina says:

    AA Vote is maxed out and is a factor in only some selected states.

    BTW – AA participation has gone down in GA.

  139. Tina says:

    (GA # based on Early Voting).

  140. jones says:

    Who would like to peak at the clintons’ ballots.

  141. Bogdan says:

    Why are so many people writing off Colorado? I think it will be close but I think we will win that state because of the same reasons that are often stated for Ohio, Virginia, Florida etc. in other words, oversampling Democrats and the Bradley Effect. Is there a reason that Colorado seems scarier than the other states?
    The Rasmussen shows us in the same position in Virginia and Colorado, down 51 to 47. I think we win both.

  142. Tina says:

    I wonder who gets more votes in SF.

    The R candidate running against Piglosi.

    Or Cyndi Shameham.

  143. Polaris says:

    #141 Of course it has. Effectively there isn’t any AA vote left! Kerry got near 100% participation in the AA vote too in 2004 which is why I yawn at the notion that the AA vote is going to make a big difference this year while aknowledging that the AA vote will go gangbusters for Obama.

    -Polaris

  144. lisab says:

    “Lisab, stay in doors tomorrow. I plan to because of potential riots and likely rain.”

    tomorrow will be fine until about 10 pm … then … things will get bad REGARDLESS of who wins

    if mccain wins dems will start getting nervous about 10 pm central time.

    if obama wins … things will be ok until shortly after obama leaves the stage …

    then rioting

    actually, i think he may never make it to the stage … rioting will break out the minute the election is called.

  145. Todd says:

    NRO’s Gerahty predicts: 286 Obama 252 McCain

  146. Lebanon Rep. says:

    122 – Polaris, I think McCain wins Virginia, NC, Ohio, Florida and Pa. and Missouri. I don’t think so on Colo, NM, Nev, Iowa. As for NH I’d rate it 50-50 simply because they’re a different breed of voter up their considering all the influx of Mass. people to that state. I also see Mac getting Indiana, Montana, ND, Georgia too. I really think Obama will win a lot more votes but Mac gets the EV in a very close one. Factor in the Acorn cheating in the states with large cities and that is how he gets more votes. Someone told me that St. Louis cheating by Dems enabled Claire McCaskill to win that Senate seat a few years ago.

  147. jones says:

    Don’t you wish you had something to scatter a mob lisab?

  148. Polaris says:

    #143 I’m not writing off Colorado, but the Indie number in a lot of recent polls in Co is worrisome. That said, I think there may be a ‘liberal indie’ effect in Co because of the Denver/Boulder oversample.

    -Polaris

  149. Greg from MD says:

    I don’t want to watch the talking heads tomorrow night, I just can’t bear it. How does C-SPAN work? Is there commentary, or is it just the results as they come in?

  150. Mr. Mike says:

    Speaking of Noonan I was shocked at here late pick (and sorta mea culpa) of the Maverick. I think she has some sources close to the campaign that have told her he’s in better shape in this than you think!

  151. mpthompson says:

    Tina, I believe in 2004 the Green candidate got more votes than Bush did in SF. The last R left San Francisco about two years ago and forgot to turn the lights off.

  152. Chekote says:

    those who are confessing that they are AFRAID to say they are supporting McCain for fear of being called a racist.

    My cleaning lady is Hispanic and she told me that people supporting Obama in her community are saying that if you don’t support Obama you are a racist. Her daughter, mother are voting for Mac. Both were Hillary supporters.

  153. Sy says:

    I say it again. The easiest path for McCain’s victory is through PA. All other paths are long shots at best. He has to rely on too many states to put him over the top.

  154. Tina says:

    Mpthompson, bingo. The same will happen this go around.

  155. Lebanon Rep. says:

    143- My neighbor has twin sons living in Crested Butte, Colorado. They claim the State is being infested with more and more liberals. I think this is why they’re starting to win State wide offices like the two US Senate seats. If you recall Ben Nighthorse Campbell, he once said the State was trending more democratic. I think Mac has a better chance in Virginia than Colorado. JMHO

  156. Chekote says:

    Tina

    I heard Newt on Hannity and he said that the early vote is not significantly different from previous elections.

  157. Tony says:

    Kicking Obama back to voting present AND kicking Murtha to the curb is making my leg tingle.

  158. lisab says:

    an AA student about 20 years old was talking to me today.

    she absolutely would vote (for obama)

    but she did not register

  159. cheesehead says:

    #105, rdelbov: You make a very important point: campaigns matter.

    The Nate Silvers of the world think that elections are all about a multi-parameter demographic and voting history regression. There’s almost no point in voting: the future is determined by the past.

    But there’s a trivial counter-example. Suppose one candidate concentrated all their campaign resources (rallies, TV advertising, GOTV) in just a couple of states. Would there be any doubt that the results in those states would exceed the national polling averages?

  160. Tina says:

    Owi wan update coming at CS.

  161. lisab says:

    “LAND O’ LAKES, Fla. (AP) – A nudist community on Florida’s west coast wants to establish the first clothing-optional polling site. The Caliente Resorts, located in Pasco County north of Tampa, has approached election officials about the idea.” drudge

  162. Addisonst says:

    Cory when you export canadian style health care to us are you going to make us watch canadian football too?

    Yikes that could be part of the reeducation camps. And soccer. Shudder.

  163. Tina says:

    Chekote that is what I heard. Actually, I heard that young voters are LOWER than they were in 2004.

    Of course, you hear everything.

  164. mpthompson says:

    Chekote, not to impugn your cleaning ladies character, but it could be she just knows what side of the bread the butter is on. Think about it, if you were in her place would you admit to your employer supporting Obama?

  165. Tina says:

    Breaking News:

    Palin violated NO ETHICAL LAW was violated for the firing of the brother in law.

  166. lisab says:

    the thing is …

    why is it that clothing optional usually means fat old people?

    you never see thomas selleck clothing optional.

  167. Tony says:

    Palin did not violate ethics law per FNC

  168. Greg from MD says:

    #165, we liked the Baltimore CFL Colts back in the day!

  169. lisab says:

    the thing is … if we get nationalized healthcare …

    canadians won’t get a free ride anymore.

    currently canada gets MUCH cheaper medicines and such from drug companies because the usa pays the reseach costs.

    that will no longer be true.

  170. Sharon says:

    142…me,me,me..I have been saying all along that I bet in the booth they will vote McCain!

  171. Chekote says:

    mpthompson,

    She supported Hillary during the primaries. Her main objection is the fact that Obama supported a law that would let babies who survive abortion die. She listens to Christian radio and was telling me that there was a black preacher saying that blacks should not vote for Obama because of abortion. She has said that no Christian can support somebody like Obama.

  172. Hey everyone, if you are a Rightpundits supporter, put your money where your mouth is. RP is having a contest to call your presidential shot and the winner gets $100 bucks.

    Go to http://www.rightpundits.com/?p=2299#comment-379063

  173. maelstrom says:

    My wife and I were at the McCain rally in Indianapolis today. Very well organized; approx. 5000 people according to the local news. We were close to the stage on the rail. We were close hands but Mac skipped us. I did shake hands with Senators Graham and Lieberman. I really admire Joe Lieberman for putting the country first. He’s a better than RINO Powell.

  174. Addisonst says:

    171 The Canadians don’t do anything as well as us except hockey. Their health care is worse, their unemployment rate is higher, their deficits are higher. And all that despite spending less on defense b/c we have to shield their sorry asses.

    It would be funny if Obama went and terminated NAFTA just to see them cry and squirm. I assume we have a trading deficit w/ the canucks. Let’s put up a fence and trade barriers.

  175. mystery says:

    Here is the Geraghty link from above

    Those First 252 Electoral Votes Are Easy. It’s Those Last 18 That Are The Toughies…

    http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/

  176. Lebanon Rep. says:

    Apologies if posted already. Hot Air predictions…looks good to me.

    http://hotair.com/archives/2008/11/03/my-predictions/

  177. MDefl says:

    CD – 11 at D +16 is a little high. D +12 I would believe.

  178. Sy says:

    Is CNN gonna have that image of Obama and his grandmother on the page all day today?

  179. Tony says:

    177

    Notice that ‘world is for obama’ story on Drudge?

    Imagine how much of the world will hate us if Obama loses. I say let ’em hate.

  180. Polaris says:

    It’s Monday football for me. See all of you in a few hours. Don’t burn the place down without me.

    -Polaris

  181. lisab says:

    “The Canadians don’t do anything as well as us except hockey.”

    when was the last time a canadian team won the stanley cup?

  182. Howard Dean says:

    Early Voting Turnout Could Skew Preliminary Election Returns

    Exit polls, as well as preliminary state returns on Election Day, could be inaccurate due to the huge number of people using early and absentee voting.

    FOXNews.com

    Monday, November 03, 2008

  183. Mr. Mike says:

    Chekote, I have a friend with an AA housekeeper that loves her some Obama. She even tried to brainwash the little ones. He told her recently that if Obama wins he might not be able to afford to keep her around.

    Her response: “What?! You ain’t rich!”

    His response: “Yeah, I know, but I’m in Obama’s target tax bracket!”

    I was told the expression on her face was priceless. She stopped talking about Obama after that.

    These freakin’ morons tomorrow are going to vote themselves out of a job!

  184. lisab says:

    canadians murder baby seals and pollute the environment better than us

  185. Howard Dean says:

    Folks, keep #186 in mind tomorrow!

  186. Greg from MD says:

    I’d like to say thanks again to Dave W for hosting a fantastic site. Reagrdless of how it turns out, I’ve really enjoyed this election season. Before things get crazy and everybody moves on from politics tomorrow, take a minute to kick in a few bucks to help offset the (presumably exorbitant) costs of maintaining this site. Link is at the bottom left corner of the homepage.

  187. Lebanon Rep. says:

    One of my few friends in life a transplant from Brooklyn to Lebanon County here in Pa. tells me based on his experience of working in a Police Station not as a cop but records keeper that a huge segment of White Males while never admitting to it pulling the lever for McCain. He said there is still a stigma for many White Males that he knew in the Police Dept. seeing quotas promoting lesser candidates over more qualified ones. How much that translates into votes will be interesting to see once this is over. I still think there is an underbelly of racial prejudice on both sides. This isn’t just a white view on blacks but I believe a black on whites as well. It works both ways and it is wrong. I’m voting against Obama because of two reasons…the first is National Security. I think McCain is more trustworthy in my view…the second reason is because of who will pick out moderate to conservative judges and not liberal ones. For me the economy is third on the list. But it will be interesting to see how much white males vote for McCain and Obama. After all they’re a huge force in voting. We do know how black males will vote. In the end I think a McCain win will be attributed to the white male vote. That’s if he wins.

  188. mpthompson says:

    Early Voting Turnout Could Skew Preliminary Election Returns

    Yeah, but skew them in which way?

  189. Jeff S. says:

    Cory, the only thing decent to come out of Canada is your neat, little round bacon.

  190. Sy says:

    Mr. Mike,

    If you can afford a housekeeper, you are pretty well off. That housekeeper is not the sharpest knife.

  191. lisab says:

    #191 what if mccain wins but no one will admit voting for him?

    msnbc: mccain declared winner but exit polls show obama ahead 66% to 33%

  192. lisab says:

    actually i will say,

    montreal is very nice

    toronto … not so much

  193. mpthompson says:

    Sy, it’s fun to think about what type of question an exit poll worker could ask which could get an 90% Obama and 10% Mac response from voters.

  194. lisab says:

    hey … since men like sports

    what if we had a salary cap on welfare? maybe we could make it so that no ILLEGAL ALIENS could get public housing in boston, what say you?

  195. lisab says:

    “Sy, it’s fun to think about what type of question an exit poll worker could ask which could get an 90% Obama and 10% Mac response from voters”

    ok … so who here is a racist?

  196. Mr. Mike says:

    True Sy, but his point is when my money starts drying up I’m cutting the excess baggage loose! She got the point!

  197. MDefl says:

    A little more on CD 11. I would have said that D +16 or even D + 20 would have been realistic.

    However, proving the saying that all politics are local, the dems have begun to lose support because of the immigration issue. Barletta is the Hazelton mayor who took on the fed gov over illegals. The D party has owned this district forever and just 2 years ago, it would have been unthinkable that the long term incumbent (ah, can’t remember the name) could lose.

    Of course this 1 issue does not necessarily work in Mac’s favor given his history on illegal immigration.

  198. rdelbov says:

    That campaign spot guy has the popular vote going to Obama by 5% and the ECV is nearly tied and maybe by a hair to McCain.

    How can that be?

    I still say VA for McCain

  199. fasteddy says:

    I read that latest campaign spot and I don’t think ji geraghty gets it. If dems are voting for mccain in nv then they are doing it all over the place. And that totally negates everything else he says because he is going by skewed polls in every one of his picks. Pathetic

  200. mpthompson says:

    Is there any rumor that can be started over the Internet that would get the Obamanots rioting 18 hours early? That would do wonders for Obama’s chances.

  201. Sy says:

    rdelbov,

    This is an atypical election. I think the threshold for the PV is 3 or 4%. Anything above, McCain has no shot of winning the EC. Yeah, 5% is a little too much to overcome.

  202. I'veGotABraceletTooJim says:

    new OBIWAN prediction..

    http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/

    “Obi-Wan: The Pollsters ‘Seem To Have Slipped Into a World of Easy Assumptions.

    As promised, Obi-Wan Kenobi checks in… and the points he raises almost make me want to change my close-but-no-cigar forecast for McCain.”

    read it!!!!

  203. Ice Cream Man says:

    obi wan has spoken at NRO just reading now.

  204. MDefl says:

    I can’t see how pa could be more in favor of Mac than VA. It just does not make sense to me.

    If the NRO guy is right, then I suggest locking your doors, get a recording with the loudest and meanest dog barking noise (a trick from my cousin who is a security expert), get a sign that indicates you have an alarm system even if you don’t and finally sleep with your gun – loaded.

  205. Chuck Schick says:

    Obi Wan basically says the same thing Polaris has been saying hourly… the massive weighting given to Democrats by pollsters across the board are not supported by the facts. They could in the end be true… but we can’t prove it until its all over.

  206. MDefl says:

    Is Polaris Obi-Wan? Hmm…

  207. dblaikie says:

    Obi Wan, the guy from campaign spot who in 2004 brought reality to a the race nails it tonight. For your pleasure here is the entire post:

    As promised, Obi-Wan Kenobi checks in… and the points he raises almost make me want to change my close-but-no-cigar forecast for McCain.

    Okay, last night’s homework assignment was to look at Battleground and Rasmussen to see if there was any decay – as noticed by IBD poll released on Sunday – in the Obama lead. There wasn’t. Obama went up by a point or two. Then IBD came out today and showed a similar Obama increase – making the race not a two pointer anymore but more like four and change.

    So just when this seemed like a bad news day for McCain, along comes a pile of polls in key Battleground states from multiple firms showing McCain gaining in many places, winning in several and within reach –even the easy reach of a few points — in most of them.

    Look, the real drama to this election is being provided not by the candidates but the polling community. By which I mean the decision they made to stake out — as Campaign Spot has noted — a remarkably bold position, that the Democratic Party turnout is not only going to exceed a recent historic advantage of 4 percent but go to 6.5 percent (Rasmussen) to 8 percent in many polls to even 12 percent in one.

    I keep looking for the justification for this. Not easy to find. Rather like the academics’ one-time belief in the Aristotlean spheres and an earth-centered universe, it just seems to be a pretty good working theory — some sort of way to make sense of observable phenomena and keep all the smart people talking agreeably and pleasantly among themselves.

    Part of this is the fascination or maybe the better word is shock of the political commentators and the consulting community as well as their cousins in the polling world with the role of voter turnout in the 2004 Bush victory. You want turnout (instead of TV spots)? We’ll give you turnout, the Democrats seemed to have been saying the last few years. (For all of that, they only got themselves up to a 3 percent advantage in 2006.)

    So the question is this? Did the Democrats make the mistake of fighting this election on the basis of a lesson learned in the last one? And then persuade everyone else this was the key to understanding the political universe. And by everyone I mean the polling companies.

    In the old days the networks had political directors like Marty Plissner and Hal Bruno who kept an eye on the tendency to politicize the number-crunchers. What happens when that sort of internal check is lost was evidenced by the spectacular embarrassment – the debacle — of the exit polls in 2004. (Obi ) The polite explanation was that the skewing resulted from the fact that Democratic voters are more likely to talk to polling representatives at the polls. What got buried was the fact studies found that the cultural-political backgrounds of the exit-poll employees was a big factor.

    Anyway, back in the days when exit polls were reliable — if a first or second wave of numbers were seen similar to the McCain-Obama battleground polls that came out today the network insiders would have been saying: hold everything, this is a very close one. (That’s because they usually wacked two or three points off the Democrats’ total since urban areas get better represented in the exit polls.)

    So, if the polling community is basically right in their turnout models, this is looking like ’64 — a nightmare scenario for the GOP. But if they are off to any significant degree, the state polls seen today (even though some of them favor a high Dem turnout model) make this a very different race. And what about the outlier polls in Pennsylvania and even one in Minnesota showing a close race?

    And there are other questions. What about the reaction to media bias (Obamamania, the resentment towards Sarah Palin and Joe the Plumber) driving up Republican turnout? What about the extent to which Reagan Democrats in Florida are being urged to the polls by the McCain campaign?

    And the reason that the polling community, not to mention the Obama campaign should be uneasy is that finding the justification for their heavy Democratic weighting isn’t readily accessible. And that is the point – along with failing to themselves take note that in this period of unprecedented economic turmoil and therefore any predictions this year might be questionable or at least hugely complicated, the pollsters and media gurus never really put their own premises about voter turnout front and center and asked for questions, objections and evaluations.

    They seem to have slipped into a world of easy assumptions. Always dangerous for those whose job is to quantify and track the stars and planets of an ever-changing, ever-moving political universe.

    Expect a mid-morning or afternoon update from Obi-Wan tomorrow.

  208. Ice Cream Man says:

    obi wan sure writes and sounds a lot like rove…

  209. mystery says:

    #211…Hmmmm…maybe Polaris isn’t wacting football but instead emailing Jim Geraghty..lol

  210. Billcon says:

    Just thought I would add that rasmussen polled on sunday in VA for the last 5 weeks in Va. Give me a break. He knows that this is the worst polling day for Republicans. The last SUSA poll had webb allen at 52-44 on monday the day before election day. yet it was 49.6-49.2 webb and thiere was some suspicious results out of arlington. Relax on VA. McCain will win!!!

  211. I'veGotABraceletTooJim says:

    213

    -Yup. My thoughts this whole season.

  212. mystery says:

    make that watching

  213. mystery says:

    I think Obi-wan is Rove…jmo

  214. Benni says:

    Hi Frank

    what do you think who will win????

  215. MDefl says:

    What did Obi-Wan predict?

  216. I think Obi he is Rove too, Tina is convinced that he is not.

  217. Benni says:

    #41: Benni: What is the basis for those numbers? Do they come from re-adjusting polls for anticipated turnout, or are they just gut-feel estimates?

    Comment by Steve Z — 11/3/2008

    NO STEVE

    THIS ARE MY NUMBERS FOR TOMORROW!!!

  218. Benni says:

    Tina why dont you see Mac winning NH anymore???

  219. jones says:

    181,

    Thank you for the prayer. I looked up politicians- St. Thomas More.

    For whoever wins- may they be guided by Truth and Justice.

  220. Jimmy says:

    If the voter turnout is big across the board, including red leaning counties in battleground states, does that mean us conservatives can rest easy and realize the polls have been dead wrong.

  221. Tina says:

    I read that latest campaign spot and I don’t think ji geraghty gets it. If dems are voting for mccain in nv then they are doing it all over the place. And that totally negates everything else he says because he is going by skewed polls in every one of his picks. Pathetic

    Comment by fasteddy — 11/3/2008 @ 8:07 pm

    Add FL support by Democrats for MAC which Jim G. references in the summary from Obi wan.

  222. Chekote says:

    After watching Rove and Newt, I don’t get the sense that there will be an Obama landslide. It is too close to call.

  223. Ice Cream Man says:

    MDefl, he did not predict only reinforced the statements that to think the pollsters have a good case for the enhanced dem numbers they are using are validl In fact they have nothing to defend their positions and the press is not doing their jobs by questioning them

  224. Benni says:

    NEW POLLS OF PPP

    NEVADA AND INDIANA

    OBAMA LEADS THERE

  225. Tina says:

    Benni, I made no such prediction of NH.

    I need to see the writing samples of Obi Wan and Polaris. Kind of like how I figured out Howard Dean’s handle @ PP.

  226. MDefl says:

    What time do the polls in VA close?

  227. Chekote says:

    Another question that has disappeared from the polls is who is to blame for the financial meltdown. At the beginning of the crisis, the GOP was getting blamed 2 to 1.

  228. Murphy says:

    PPP

    Piss, poor, prognastication.

  229. Tina says:

    They could have egg on their faces if MAC takes all BC 04 states plus NH.

  230. Tina says:

    Mdefl, the site I have says 7:00 PM. EST that 270.com site.

  231. Chekote says:

    Why would NH vote for Obama. I mean Mac has probably personally met with 70% of the people there. They are an anti-tax state. “Spread the Wealth” doesn’t sound like their kind of candidate.

  232. Sy says:

    Mdefl,

    If history is any indicating, polls in Virgina will close when the judge is satisfied that every Democrat has a chance to vote.

  233. Ice Cream Man says:

    237. NH has a lot of Mass people migrating here. While they like the tax situation, they still are libs.

  234. Tina says:

    Chekote do you reside in TX? I thought you lived on the East Coast.

  235. KnightHawk says:

    #231 – 7pm.

  236. Sy says:

    Ice Cream Man,

    Most of them moved out of Mass for a reason. They like the liberal government.

  237. Tina says:

    KH any update on GA?

  238. KnightHawk says:

    Thanks for the handy map Ice Cream Man.

  239. Sy says:

    They DON’T like rather.

  240. Tina says:

    I like that map too, better than that 270 EV site.

  241. Tina says:

    Benni and others – I will be hear early my time PST and then gone until 4 or 5 PST. I will be here and at the RP site.

  242. MDefl says:

    Regarding PA, I won’t to warn everyone that Philly reports first. So don’t be surprised if BO has a 30 percent lead a 8:30PM. The polls close at 8. Hang in there, it will tighten up. Here is my, out on the ledge, prediction: if Mac is within 20 in PA at 8:30, then he will win PA and the election.

  243. Tina says:

    How many dead vote in philly?

  244. Sy says:

    Mdefl,

    What is the normal % for that Philly county?

  245. Ice Cream Man says:

    Sy,
    The primary reason we had MA people move to NH was housing costs. While sitll expensive in NH a lot cheaper than Boston and its suburbs which extends to the NH border. They also were attracted by no income taxes, though in the past few years Property taxes has eaten up the difference. Plus a lot of them shop in NH so they save money in gas by not having to drive here to shop every week.
    They still retain the MA liberal politics though.

  246. Sy says:

    Tina,

    I would imagine a lot. Why do you think The 6th Sense was filmed there?

    I see dead people voting.

  247. joe six pack says:

    What did Newt and Karl say on BO tonight?

  248. Chekote says:

    Tina

    Texas. I used to live in NYC.

  249. Tina says:

    Newt on hannity says he is not buying the pollsters assumptions.

  250. Tina says:

    Thanks, Chekote. I knew you had supported Guiliani in the Primary.

  251. MDefl says:

    Sy,

    80/20 D to R. That is fairly consistent and I don’t expect it to change. The AA turnout will be offset by R’s in NE Philly and some union D’s who, in the end, could never vote for BO.

    Tina,

    About 80,000 dead people manage to pull of the miracle of voting despite, you know, not being able to breath and being quite decomposed. It is quite a feat.

  252. DWu says:

    Regarding VA, I was talking to a Vietnamese friend of mine.

    They are phone banking all their family and friends in VA to vote for MAC.

    The 2 big issues: MAC’s obvious connections to the Vietnamese people, and pro life issues.

    They’re some of the greatest new Americans and they give me faith in the future of America.

  253. Diamond Jim says:

    Go Redskins

  254. Tina says:

    That is an amazing feat.

  255. MDefl says:

    I never thought I would root for the Redskins, but what the Hell, I have to now.

    I do so against every fiber of being in my body.

  256. Tina says:

    Ok, its time for me to retire this evening.

    3 AM comes erly when the guvment calls.

  257. lisab says:

    that is the danger of philly reporting early

    if they do … the dead won’t be able to vote later if they need the votes.

  258. KnightHawk says:

    “KH any update on GA?”

    Unchanged in my opinion, McCain wins (4-6% probably more), Chambliss squeaks by , just barely avoids a run off. -2cents.

  259. Benni says:

    good night Tina

  260. Frank says:

    Benni,

    I won’t stray from my prediction in class today.

    I predict that the republicans will come out in huge numbers and the party ID will be close to, if not exactly 37 – 37.

    If this happens, McCain wins. If not, then McCain loses.

    Frank

  261. Chekote says:

    Ciao Tina.

  262. MDefl says:

    Tina,

    My cousin (who is a union member btw) broke the nose of a union goon who told me he “gonna vote fer Gore or else”. This was in 2000 at a polling place. My cousin punched him in the nose and said “or else what”? He then had the pleasure of spending the night in lock up. He said it was worth it. You have to know him. Overnight stays in jail don’t bother him in the least.

    Me? No way!!!

  263. Frank says:

    Friends,

    Polaris said earlier that he made his prediction.

    Would somebody please steer me to where it is?

    Or would you cut and paste it so I can see it.

    Thanks

    Frank

  264. lisab says:

    “Don’t you wish you had something to scatter a mob lisab?” jones

    that is why we have police

    however, if you see a woman on top of an apartment complex holding of a mob of rioters who are after her shoes …

    that will be me

  265. Phil says:

    Well, one thing is for sure. The last two days have guaranteed that West Virginia won’t go for Obama.

  266. DrJay says:

    SUSA Washington

    56-40 Obama

    52-46 Gregoire

    (D+11)

  267. lisab says:

    Frank,

    see #122

  268. Howard Dean says:

    DWu, There is a HUGE Vietnamese pop in Orange CO. CA.

    They are very Republican.

    They KNOW Communism and see the R party as supporting more freedoms.

    Kerry could not walk through their neighborhoods safely.

    I’m not joking.

  269. Chekote says:

    I know a couple of Vietnamese. Second generation. Very patriotic. More than most Americans. Very Republican.

  270. Howard Dean says:

    52-46 Gregoire

    (D+11)

    Comment by DrJay — 11/3/2008 @

    LOL

    Rossi may actually squeak by this time.

  271. Tina says:

    One more thing, Rush is supposedely at the football game.

    Go Skins (I hate the NFC East for obvious reasons).

  272. lisab says:

    i fear israel will bomb iran soon if obama wins … even if bush does not approve.

    they know obama will not help them at all so why not do it now?

  273. Murphy says:

    I just heard Obama say on CBS? news that he hadn’t been able to get in touch with his poor aunt in Boston? If he can’t get in touch with her, how in hell will he be able to find Ben laden?

  274. KnightHawk says:

    #279 – Tonight would be good timing for that. 😉

  275. KnightHawk says:

    Would somebody please steer me to where it is?

    #122

  276. Benni says:

    Frank what do you think about my state by state prediction??

  277. Sy says:

    Frank,

    Polaris’s prediction: +NH-NM

    I say he is whacko.

  278. jones says:

    Wright ad in Wisconsin.

  279. Chekote says:

    WI is one of the states that I thought would go Mac. Especially, if the young people don’t show up.

  280. DrJay says:

    Datamar: FL Pres

    Mac 48
    Obama 47

  281. Anyone who has moved here from a Communist country (Cuba, China, Viet Nam) are almost always overwhelmingly Republican.

  282. KnightHawk says:

    “If he can’t get in touch with her, how in hell will he be able to find Ben laden?”

    Such questions are not allowed.

  283. MDefl says:

    If only the coal issue hit last week, then I could see it making a big difference in PA. It was a few days too late.

    Here is something to ponder. My wife is an indy. As such, we are hit with all the robo calls. I had 2 Obama teams stop at my house to talk to my wife (and me, I guess) about 3 weeks ago. Since then, I have not seen anything from the Obama team and all the calls I have received have been Mac calls. I wonder what is up with that? Maybe, BO calls are being made when we are not home or just don’t answer the phone. Maybe more BO people came to my house. We have been out a lot lately.

    Of course, Rendell was pissed at BO because he feels like BO took PA for granted for a while. You won’t find that in press reports. That is directly from my friend who knows and used to work for Rendell. He is still in city politics. BTW – I spoke to him earlier tonight and he thinks the race has tightened and is going to be 2 to 3 points. He was 4 to 6 all along. I asked him if it was impossible for Mac to win. His reponse was that it is not impossible but 10 or 11 different things would all have to go Mac’s way and he does not think that is probable.

    He still does not like Obama. I wanted to ask his opinion on CD – 11 but forgot.

  284. Benni says:

    Frank do you think at 7pm if polls close in INwe will have a view who will win?

    Hope you will be here tomorrow?

    the german tv channels said today

    MT ND GA NC IN FL are the swing states
    this time!

    65%of the germans think Obama will get a landslide!!

  285. L TePaske says:

    In 2004 FL, CO, aand VA were all supposed to be close, all were called fairly early, fairly early as defined means whatever you want it to mean

  286. Murphy says:

    Just read on Drudge that an Iraq war veteran called Murtha a “fat little bastard”. He spoke at a Bill Russell rally and there ain’t no sense messing around with words.

  287. Howard Dean says:

    lisab, That is a very real possibility.

  288. Ice Cream Man says:

    MDefl,
    While I agree that it would have been better for the coal issue to come out earlier, I think you are underestimating the impact of word of mouth in communities (and I say communities I also include employment communities like industries) the word can spread like wildfire if they believe their livelihood is being threatened. I will bet that it was all around the coal industry to their families and contacts pretty damn fast yesterday and today.

  289. Tina says:

    Ok, I am back, just trying to find one last piece of good news.

    As I posted in another thread, Aunty Obama was @ his swearing in ceremony in 2005.

  290. Benni says:

    Good night everybody

    I am very excited
    more as in 2004!!!

    hope I can sleep

    we will read us here again tomorrow!!
    a good night for everybody
    and god bless america

  291. Ice Cream Man says:

    Disagree that they will be called as quickly as 2004. They are gun shy based on exit polls and they will wait for more data to come in before calling to save any embarrassment.
    except for Chrissy

  292. Howard Dean says:

    I hope they run coal ads during the game!

  293. Tina says:

    I too wish the coal stuff would have come out a few days ago, say Tuesday or Wed last week. Anyway, it is what it is.

    SF Chronicle hid this from Hillary and MAC.

  294. Mark says:

    Dick Morris saying what I believe: nobody really knows, not even the campaigns really know what the state of the race is.

  295. Ice Cream Man says:

    301. Don’t bet on the statement and Morris knows better too. He has been there.

  296. Chekote says:

    The way stories spread these days, I think a couple of days is enough. For all we know they are doing robocalls on it. BTW, I think it was brilliant on the part of the RNC to use Hillary’s voice on the robocalls. Hill doesn’t seem too upset about it. I have no doubt that she and Bill are voting for Mac.

  297. I can imagine an e-mail going out from the UMW to every member of their union, I’m sure that went out yesterday. You can bet the coal issue is spreading amongst those it will effect the most. The question is, will it make a difference? Maybe.

  298. Jaded says:

    They are robocalling in PA and OH on and they just play his words….is oh so distracting to be pegged with your OWN words….here is the context “I will bankrupt your coal companies”.

    I believe Obama is more than a marxist more than a communist more than a socialist….this person is an ANARCHIST!

  299. Ice Cream Man says:

    Redskins up by 6

  300. KnightHawk says:

    chk – Yeah I love how she “disapproved” of it but really isn’t pressing the issue, not that she can really do anything about it anyway. It could be smart to downplay it though cause the last thing Obama really wants is attention drawn to the comments.

  301. MDefl says:

    I agree with ICM. There will be no early calls, at least not for the first hour or so. They know they simply cannot f this up.

    I have to be honest and tell everyone that I am worried about VA, CO, NV and FL. I think we retain OH and I am already counting IA and NM as blue. If Mac can pull the inside straight, who knows?

    The good news is that it is unlikely that the Dems will get to the magical 60 number in the Senate. also, they have begun to show some cracks in the House. Murtha and Kanjorski are in big trouble. Maloney is gone. Everything in politics is cyclical. There are Dems who believe that the GOP will not compete for the next 20 or 30 years for control of congress. They are going to be surprised and that surprise will take place in the not to distant future.

    For now, we need to hang in there and fight the good fight. Oh and Peggy Noonan, Christopher Buckley, Colin Powell and Michael Smerconisch can kiss my Irish/Italian/Norwiegan butt.

  302. Darrell says:

    Does Dick Morris still think this race will be Condi vs. Hillary?

  303. Tina says:

    Is Michael Smerconisichwhatever the bald guy with glasses. I think I saw him on PMS months ago.

  304. jones says:

    I keep coming back to this.

    If O wins, Hillary will never be POTUS.

    She knows it too.

  305. MDefl says:

    They have mailers in PA with Mac and HRC on the cover!!!

  306. Sy says:

    Darrell,

    Perhaps the race to the AARP line. If Obama wins, that will be it for her …unless Obama nominates her to the Supreme Court.

  307. DWu says:

    Folks,

    Have you noticed the VA and CO races in particular “closing” to a 4 point race or so?

    What happened to the double digit Obama leads?

    Pure propaganda.

    I’m not sure about CO, but McCain has always been running MUCH stronger in VA than the pollsters have let on.

    Looking at the latest polls which still are oversampling Dems greatly, I think MAC wins VA by 3 points tomorrow.

  308. Howard Dean says:

    They won’t be able to call early b/c voting will be heavy.

  309. Howard Dean says:

    I feel good about: FL, OH, VA.

    Not sure about: NV, CO, NM, IA.

  310. MDefl says:

    Tina,

    Yes, that is him. BO appeared on his radio show a few months ago and Smerconish feel in love. It is really pathetic. He claims, with a straight face, that as a Republican he is supporting BO because he will be tough on terrorism. I couldn’t even make that up!

    He can kiss my butt. He also claims that he will do battle to recapture the party from the “extremists” who have taken over. I guess that would be 99% of us. Smerconish can go to parties with Peggy Noonan in Manhatten for all I care. He also claims his BO support has nothing to do with his work for MSNBC. His radio show has also degenerated into an unlistenable mess.

  311. Darrell says:

    I have said all along VA 52/47 for McCain

  312. ameister says:

    I would be cautious about FL. Broward, Dade and Palm beach have had very heavy early AA tournout. Very

  313. Tony says:

    new thread

  314. Tina says:

    Thanks, I found him online for his photo. That be the person I saw on the tube.

  315. MalibuJim says:

    #311

    Regardless of who wins.

    Hillary Clinton will never be President.

  316. MDefl says:

    On to the next thread and go Skins!

  317. Cam Rep says:

    Hold the presses, everyone!! I just found a locked box full of ballots marked “Christine Gregoire” in my file cabinet!! THAT puts her over the top!!

    Oh…wait…I’m a few days early. Forget I said that.

  318. ameister says:

    293. and I thought Gerald Nadler was the fat little bastard!

  319. Bobby says:

    Tina, how you feeling about tomorrow?? I am just curious…

  320. addisonst says:

    Don’t worry. You will be kept together in the family camps.

  321. phoenixrisen says:

    Just got home not too long ago and have been reading today’s posts. A few points:

    I have seen a LOT of people say that McCain loses Virginia barely. NO WAY!! NO POSSIBLE WAY!! I have stated many times before. He is doing 10 points better in Northern Virginia than George Allen did in 2006. He is competitive in Fairfax, even 50/50 in some areas, and he is just destroying Obama everywhere else in the state by LARGE margins. All these polls and Polaris has said are predominantly NOVA. They are drastically undersampling southern Virginia, particularly the Shenendoah Valley. Plus, the monstrous military vote. All these pollsters are smoking doobies in regards to VA. Stop inhaling and being drugged by their smoke. Mac wins Virginia by 4 or more.

    Florida, Ohio, Indiana, North Carolina, will go McCain by at least 3 points or more.

    Pennsylvania, I think McCain wins thought it will be close. However, if you see Obama underperforming in Philly, Mac wins by even more. The coal bomb is a monster and its effects will be felt particularly in PA, OH, VA, IN, IA, and CO big time.

    Iowa will likely go MCCAIN. Why? Well, coal for one, then farmers who are skeptical about Obama’s evolving tax plan/redistribution. Remember, three days ago Obama’s internal polling showed him up only one.

    New Hampshire could go either way but I really can’t get a feel on this one.

    Colorado. You know, it amazes me that people are so quick to bail on a state where the GOP is in the majority when it comes to registered voters. Look at the early voting! It’s practically dead even! You know, McCain wins here unless the liberal indies from California have changed the demographics in Colorado to blue.

    New Mexico. Obama probably eeks it out, BARELY.

    Nevada. McCain will win. His results there have been encouraging.

    Am I a Pollyanna? Ummm, no. Look at all the factors in favor of McCain.

    Monster Bradley Effect – PUMAs, “registered” Democrats who really are GOP voters that registered as Democrats in Operation Chaos, and GOP voters either hanging up the phone on pollsters or just lying to them.

    PUMAs – Talk about a group that Obama is going to regret ticking off. Every poll I have seen of Hillary voters show that 20% or more are going to vote for McCain. On top of that, many of these voters have been actively campaigning for McCain.

    Union Reagan Democrats – Particularly in Ohio and Pennsylvania. This coal issue that has come up in the last 36 hours will be the coup de grace for Obama in regards to this group. Heck, Michigan might be close though I wouldn’t count on it. The ground operation there has been strong even though McCain pulled out. Also, watch Minnesota as well. Though I favor Obama here, this state got my interest with that SUSA poll that came out today showing Obama up +3 in a Dem +7 poll.

    McCain 301 (NH toss up)
    Obama 232

    McCain 51-48 PV

    NOW GO OUT AND VOTE TOMORROW!!

  322. Frank says:

    Polaris,

    Thank you.

    How strongly do you believe? I believe that McCain will win but maybe 60 – 40.

    Frank

  323. General Patton says:

    Why wouldn’t they disclose Palin’s medical records? What is there to hide?!!!!

    🙂

  324. MikeKS says:

    Hey everyone, anyone up? 🙂