Election Post-Mortem

Well that’s that….

I was resigned to McCain losing a while ago, so the fact that he lost really didn’t phase me much last night as it did in 2006, when I took the election much harder. That was more because we lost a lot of races where I was emotionally attached to the candidates I supported. I never really had much emotional connection to John McCain even after he was chosen as the GOP nominee. Anyone around here back during the primary knows my enthusiasm for any of the GOP candidates was low and never really could decide who I really wanted. This is unlike 2000 when I was a Bush supporter from the day he announced to the day he was elected and rode every up and down in the polls emotionally. This year, the whole election was more of a “sporting event” for me than anything.

Don’t get me wrong, I gladly voted for McCain yesterday and wanted him to win and had no intention of voting for Obama, but it was truly more of a party vote than voting for the individual candidate. One thing I did learn long ago is it really doesn’t matter who the President is as far as my personal life goes. I was better off personally after the eight years of Bill Clinton and I was better off personally after the almost eight years of George W Bush. I am sure I will be even better off after a term (hopefully only one) of Barack Obama. I’ve been part of winning campaigns (1994, 200, 2002, 2004) and part of losing ones (1996, 2006, 2008) and life goes on whether my side won or lost….

This was a fascinating election to watch and despite the outcome, had a lot of fun covering it and participating in it. This site, I hope, helped you enjoy it as well and I’m not going anywhere. I might take some time to decompress and the posting may become a little lighter over the next couple of months, but I still have a lot of fun doing this site and have no intention of stopping or slowing down too much to make the site irrelevant. In the words of Rush Limbaugh – “I am still having more fun than a human being should be allowed to have.”

One side note from last night, this site hit 43,688 unique site visits and an all-time single-day record of 98,681 page views throughout the course of the day. And at some point during the afternoon, this site passed 3,000,000 unique site vists in the history of the site. Obviously traffic is going to nosedive like it does after every other election, but just a little bit of navel-gazing if you allow me….

Anyway, now that things have wrapped up and we have time to breathe again, my first item I want to get to is to analyze all the pollsters and how they performed this year. We had a number of new pollsters who polled numerous states this year that we can get a good idea of which pollsters know what they are doing and which ones clearly don’t. Also, we can already start looking ahead to the 2010 mid-terms (as well as the 2009 races in VA and NJ) and what seats are up all across the country. Could we have another 1994 on our hands or will the Democrats be able to keep their gains they have gotten in the past two election cycles? Only time will tell and I plan on being here to tell part of it….

Posted by Dave at 7:58 am
Filed under: 2008 President | Comments (176)

176 Responses to “Election Post-Mortem”

  1. Stephen Wissing says:

    damn…i was almost 1

  2. Tim Van says:

    lol, sorry stephen

  3. dblaikie says:

    Well, thank God, Fox is calling Coleman the winner in Mn.

  4. Tim Van says:

    And at some point during the afternoon, this site passed 3,000,000 unique site vists in the history of the site

    congrats dave. nice work.

  5. dblaikie says:

    Now the big question, will Lieberman switch and caucus with the republicans?

  6. Jeff S. says:

    #6 will probably depend on how he’s received by his colleagues and whether they strip him.

  7. MDefl says:

    Republicans in exile, day 1.

    Just kidding. Hey, there is some good news. We won in AK so Sarah will pick a R when Stevens goes to jail. Smith looks like he will win in OR. I don’t trust the Coleman win yet. We are headed for recounts and lawsuits in Minn, no doubt. Wicker, McConnell and Chambliss won.

    All is not lost but the GOP better develop a coherent message going forward.

    As for my state of PA, I give up and now resign myself to the fact that we are New York south.

  8. American Thinker Fan says:


    No doubt. They would only keep him if it had filibuster considerations.

    I hope this happens because he would be a great spokesman on our part.

  9. oe says:

    8. Did Dent win and Corbett?

    Corbett could be the next PA governor

  10. American Thinker Fan says:


    Remember how it felt in 1992?

    Here is a question:

    How long before Obama has 30% approval?

  11. Hellbelly says:

    …if coleman, smith, and stevens all hold on, what will the GOP total be in the Senate?

  12. Hellbelly says:

    I live in Massachusetts…..the only proposition/person that i voted for that actually won was the decriminalization of marijuana.

    My course is clear.

  13. Viceroy Argus says:

    11: Precisely!

  14. knova_red says:

    11-how long before congress has an approval rating of 9%…oh wait…

  15. HiChris says:

    Thanks for the site Dave – been coming by since the 2000 race. Hard to believe it’s been that long. Lived in 4 different states during that time – but I’m always “at home” here.

    Congrats on 3 million!

  16. dblaikie says:

    If Lieberman switches it will be 45 which is not so bad.

    The truth is that the republican party deserves this. We need to pay a price for the fact that our leaders quit being republicans and started being power-hungry, earmark addicted, bureaucrats. 2 years in the wilderness will have some benefits. Mitch McConnnell is an effective leader and he will be able to muster 40 votes to defeat the most excessive stuff.

    Now the big question is if Obama will try and overeach or not? The last time we had we were in this position was with Jimmy Carter and to a lesser extent Bill Clinton. Will Obama follow in their footsteps??

  17. GPO says:

    Stevens and smith won???

  18. American Thinker Fan says:

    American Thinker has a post on being the loyal opposition.

    We might enjoy the next two years watching these peckerheads try to govern and the “change” crowd get “short changed”

    If these policies work, we still benefit. Today is the first day looking at futures tanking and not worried.

    Also, it should be pretty fun watching oil climb back up.

  19. oe says:

    12. 44

    We lost 5 in Dole, sunnunu, NM, VA and CO.

    With Lieberman 45 on Security Issues.

    Obama and the labor Unions are crying this morning.

    the markets are rising due to the GOP Seante wins.

  20. Middle of the Roader says:

    Polaris, despite his prostestations WAS wrong. Period.

    As my official prediction noted, Obama would clear 300+ EV AND the final popular vote would be closer to the Real Clear AVERAGE than his prediction. Right now we are at Obama +6 nationally and Polaris had it +1 for McCain. The RCP Ave. was 7.6, so they were 1.6 off and the Great Polaris was 7 points off.

    Polaris had every right to have his analysis, but it was his hubris that he knew more than every single pollster in America that should give everyone on this site caution – particularly partisans on the right. You can be a cheerleader for McCain and the GOP, but don’t say you are giving an honest analysis when that analysis invariably ends up scewing the numbers on one side of the ledger.

    Anybody with common sense could see that the CBS and Pew polls were way out of whack, but the poser of the RCP average (which was also quite accurate in 04), is that it levels out the outlier polls in both directions. I wrote that weeks ago here, and, typically, the Great Polaris knocked that comment as well.

  21. oe says:

    17. 45 is what the Rats had after the 2004 election.

    Listen at least 50 to 70 DEM House seats will be in play in 2010, if we raise money we are good.

    We auto a VA Governor win in 2009with LT Gov Bullock

  22. DougS says:

    My thanks too. I have been here since 2004. Loved the analysis. 2010 should be a lot of fun.
    And thanks to Polaris and Frank. I wonder what the final party ID was.

    Polaris I am anxious to hear your thoughts.

    I am thrilled that it looks like we can hold on in the Senate.

  23. Middle of the Roader says:

    Last paragraph should have read:

    Anybody with common sense could see that the CBS and Pew polls were way out of whack, but the power of the RCP average (which was also quite accurate in 04), is that it levels out the outlier polls in both directions. I wrote that weeks ago here, and, typically, the Great Polaris knocked that comment as well.

  24. American Thinker Fan says:


    They have to. When will the lefties ever get this chance? The only difference I see is Clinton just wanted to be loved. I view Obama as the truer lib. Can you see him vetoing welfare reform?

    Also, don’t forget, we have really been in charge for 28 years. How many people really know what it’s like to live under Dims?

    A little smack in the head is needed every now and then

  25. oe says:

    21. Middle you said the DEMS would win 61 Seats, you are a fraud.

    Obama will be deadlocked by a new partisan GOP Senate.

  26. oe says:

    Prop 8 passes in CAL.

    Hollyweird must be pissed.

  27. GPO says:

    did Smith win Oregon seat??

  28. Diogenes says:

    @21 Polaris assumed that the turnout model this year would return to the historical norms of the past and given that, the assumptions of most polls were wrong.

    This was an ahistorical election with many factors.

    Polaris presented a convincing argument of how McCain could win. The reasoning was solid but 2 assumptions on turnout and the way undecideds would break were wrong.

    C’est la vie. I don’t see why people like to attack Polaris; your guy won, don’t be sore winners. A bunch of people got the 2004 election wrong. I did not go and troll upon them because my guy won.

  29. American Thinker Fan says:


    Hey sport,

    Hit the road. Sorry, but we know you are a moron. We don’t need more evidence.

  30. dblaikie says:

    Middle of the roader the RCP average was still a few points high. I am happy that Gallup and Pew and Newsweek and Zogby are discredited. Scot Rasmussen, and I hate to say this, is a winner this morning.

  31. Joe says:

    It’s morning in a new America! For all of you nay sayers, and predictors of a McGovern type fiasko early when Obama was nominated, I cannot say how glad I was to have seen you all proved wrong last night. I am truly proud of America today – being a part of this historic moment was momentous. And I really do hope you Republcians don’t think it’s all because McCain didn’t get dirtier, dragging up all kinds of crap to throw at Obama. It would not have worked and would have made the Republicans even weaker. But I am not here to gloat, rather I want to ask you to try to accept our next president. McCain gave an incredibly gracious and moving speach yesterday. It is time to move on. I know what it feels like to lose and feel alienated. Four years ago I felt like crying. But hey, I sucked it up you the Republcina must do now. More importantly, though, there is a big mess to clean up now both at home and abroad. Ofcourse there is no easy solution and there will be differences in how to move forward. But I believe Obama is willing to work with everyone – Americans are tired of partisanship. Through discussion and negotiation and then decsive action we will progress to a brighter day. I hope you will be constructive part of it. In the meantime you Republicans have to figure out what your focus is. If you choose Palin as your future, I believe you will have an enthusiastic base, but little with which to convince most Americans. With Palin the democrats can look to a long future in power.

  32. American Thinker Fan says:

    Anyone know the Senators up for 2010.

    Dingy Harry is.

    Time for the bullseye?

  33. gaGOP says:

    You guys have this totally backwards. Yes Polaris was wrong about the PV total…but lets be fair, so were Gallup, Zogby, CBS, PEW, NBC and Newsweek. As much as it pains me to say it, it would appear Rasmussen was most accurate this cycle. Additionally, turnout was actually slightly below 2004 and thus historical. We need to wait and see what the final Party ID turns out to be but Obama’s margins have more to do with Republican defections and Indies breaking towards him then Dem turnout.

  34. Chekote says:

    The turnout ended up being +8.

  35. Hellbelly says:

    Harry Reid must know that he is target #1 in the ’10 election.

    He will be THE face of GOP fund raising efforts (and an effective face it will be)!

  36. rdelbov says:

    I say count every vote and do a little analysis before we reach all these conclusions.

  37. American Thinker Fan says:


    That’s what they said in 1976 about the gipper.

    PS Your 401K (if you have a job) will be earning 3% interest via gov’t bonds. I also look forward to more fannie/freddie solving the housing problem.

  38. oe says:

    Joe what is the over under on a President Biden?

    Pray for the Secret Service and their families.

  39. Chekote says:

    We need new leadership. We need to be disciplined. We need to figure out how to get around the MSM and educate voters. Running ads every election cycle is not enough to counter the constant MSM propaganda.

  40. GPO says:

    # 33
    believe it or not the 2010 Senate races do not look that great for the GOP

    these are the senators up for election

  41. oe says:


    Lincoln in ARK

    Salazar in CO

    Dodd is retiring in 2010

    IL and DE


  42. American Thinker Fan says:



    People today have no experience with Dim governance. 1994 was so successful because the nation had a 2 year glimpse.

    What can the MSM say when Nobama bankrupts the coal industry?

    Do you really think libs policies will now work?

  43. Chekote says:

    I say count every vote and do a little analysis before we reach all these conclusions.

    Comment by rdelbov

    Agreed. But we need to figure out how to get around the MSM and educate the public. Running ads saying “liberal, liberal, liberal” every election cycle is not cutting it anymore.

  44. oe says:

    Chekote what is the point.

    The media will protect the Muslim scum anyways like they did JFK.

    The only way we win 20212 is if the economy is bad and the dumb whites in FLA, Ohio etc see the light.

    ACORN also

  45. oe says:

    the only way to stop the media is by boycotting their non news shows.

    dump the Office and LOST

  46. knova_red says:

    39-That is a stupid comment. Don’t think that your IP address can’t be found by the Secret Service. I didn’t want Obama, but advocating what you just did is wrong.

  47. American Thinker Fan says:


    Today they don’t. 2012 is the date for the Senate. Dims have to protect 25.

  48. Chekote says:


    The media will spin everything positively for Obama. All of the sudden, the economy will be fine, the sun shines brighter, etc.

  49. oe says:

    48. Yes my friend.

    20212 will be brutal for the DEMs in the senate.

    If we can win a few in 2010 and get to 46 or 47, we are looking at 12 DEM seats at Risk in 12.

  50. gaGOP says:

    Chekote…I am seeing different numbers than you are. I have not seen +8 anywhere, not even close.

  51. oe says:

    Wow Marxist Kilroy lost in Ohio 15. Good news

  52. Diogenes says:


    Reid is going to be tough to crack unless the democrats are really unpopular nationally. Nevada is trending democrat with the hispanic vote.

    Arkansas is conservative but it hasn’t elected a republican in its entire history as a republican except once and that guy was defeated in the republican year of 2002.

    Salazar is a moderate in a leans democratic state where the eleciton was just decided by the hispanic vote (whites were tied). I don’t think the republicans have a hispanic candidate in waiting for the state.

    Dodd is a possibility, but the connecticut republican party is weak having lots its sole republican in its congressional delegation. Its governors are also running for reelection that year. Probably not going to happen.

    Illinois and Delaware are unlikely to ever go republican again unless we run a socially moderate candidate.

    California will never elect a republican again. That’s just the lay of the land.

    I see at best 2 or 3 pickups even in a bad year, and we have many vulnerable incumbents. Kentucky is highly vulnerable. Martinez might have difficulties. Kansas might become an open seat and the democratic governor is very popular.

    We should focus on rebuilding state-level institutions and make sure we are competitive in every state. We need a new england contingent again even if they are Rinos. I’ll take a RINO over a DNC or liberal Democrat any day. The same goes for the midwest.

  53. oe says:

    Smith was a big RINO

    Looks like 43 with Liberman 44.

    Better than 1992.

  54. Chekote says:

    Look this whole election stinks. Illegal money funded Obama and the Dems through the use of pre-paid cards. ACORN registered so many phoney people that it allowed precints to make up votes. Interesting how the urban areas always seem to report after the rest of the state has reported. They need to know the margin needed to make up.

  55. Diogenes says:

    Smith was rated 72 lifetime by the ACU. 47 last year but hey, the dems in his state outnumber the republicans bigtime.

    I’d rather have a 47 than a sub-10 which is where almost all the democrats are. There are no centrist democrats for the Republicans to ally with anymore.

  56. wylie e. coyote - super genius says:

    Hey, guys that post about Smith losing is way old. It mentions 43% of the vote being in – right now its up to 75% and Smith is up by almost 16000. Too early to say he lost…looks like he hangs on IMHO

  57. Chekote says:


    No compromise on smaller government. No compromise on lower taxes or a strong national defense. I would allow latitude on social issues.

  58. American Thinker Fan says:


    How appealing do you think they will look if they confiscate 401K’s?

    The Messiah is claiming he needs more than one term. Think they will get slack if they tank the economy even more?

  59. Hellbelly says:

    i think latest results show smith in good shape.

  60. Chekote says:

    First of all the conservatives needs to go after racial preferences. It is official. We are not a racist country anymore. So why do we need racial preference? Let the MSM cry foul and accuse us of being divisive. Let’s expose these people for who the are and what they want.

  61. wylie e. coyote - super genius says:

    here is the link on CNN:

    last track showed smith up by about 16000 with 75% in

  62. oe says:

    If smith wins we have a good filibuster, and the Unions are bumming.

  63. L TePaske says:

    I’ll Be 60 in 2012 and care more about approaching retirement than elections, what I’m seeing about 401k changes is disheartening as well as government retirement plans, send us your money we will take care of you. Read something a couple years back about conwersions of traditional IRAs to Roth and only paying tax on the profits, unless they screw that up it would be the wat to go, there are no profits today.

  64. GPO says:

    # 58- wylie e. coyote – super genius

    ty- sorry about that- im having a tought ime finding any news on that race

  65. Chun says:

    Here’s an interesting scenario. WIf Stevens has to give his seat up then Palin can give herself his seat. Would she be better off being an Alaskan senator? It would make her a nationally recognized figure in Washington and give her more of that experience that she was getting knocked around for. I think it would be a smart move for her.

  66. Chekote says:


    And why didn’t the RNC make an issue about the Dem plans regarding the 401K? Why spend money running a “Godless” America ad? I think the GOP has gotten lazy and figured they can win by pushing social issues. Social conservatives are not enough to win at a national level. Let’s face it.

  67. Brandon says:

    Franken is refusing to concede. What a loser.

  68. knova_red says:

    These are the first lines of Ayn Rand’s “Atlas Shrugged.” I have not read it since I was probably 24 (I am 51 now) But last night’s election, more than 1992 made me think that perhaps it is time to read it again. The writing is not so great and the sex is rough, but the ideas and story are almost prophetic. I have given serious consideration to cutting my business back to just me and letting my small staff go, simply because I don’t want to feed Obama’s machine.

    Remember that Ayn Rand’s family escaped the USSR, which colors all of her writing.

    “Who is John Galt?”

    The light was ebbing and Eddie Willers could not distinguish the bum’s face. The Bum had simply said it without expression. But from the sunset far at the end of the street, yellow glints caught his eyes, and the eyes looked straight at Eddie Willers, mocking and still – as if the question had been addressed to the causeless uneasiness within him.

    “Why did you say that?” asked Eddie, his voice tense.

    The bum leaned against the side of the doorway; a wedge of broken glass behind him reflected in the metal yellow of the sky.

    “Why does it bother you?” he asked

    “It doesn’t,” snapped Eddie.

    And so it begins…

  69. Chekote says:


    The law in Alaska requires a special election. I think they changed it when Murkowski appointed his daughter.

  70. Brandon says:

    Looks like Missouri got it wrong this year.

  71. Chun says:

    “The law in Alaska requires a special election. I think they changed it when Murkowski appointed his daughter.”

    Ahhh, then do you think she will run in the special election?

  72. Brandon says:

    And the “historic turnout” never happened.

  73. wylie e. coyote - super genius says:

    #73 or they got it right and a whole lot of the rest of us got it wrong!

  74. Chekote says:

    Looks like Missouri got it wrong this year.

    Comment by Brandon

    God knows what they did in Lake County to give Obama Indiana.

  75. L TePaske says:

    I don’t think they will confiscate IRAS or 401ks but offer an alternative of a government sponsered plan which would tank the market even more, send us your money and we will take care of you for life.

  76. Robbie says:

    Gordon Smith is ahead with about 74% of the vote counted.

    As for the Republican party and conservatism, I am actually as optimistic as I have been for a while. I think we bottomed out last night, but it wasn’t as bad as it could have been. We won back House seats and we held on to seats we should have lost.

    It’s time for new leadership. Mike Pence, John Shadegg, Jeb Hensarling, Eric Cantor, and Paul Ryan need to be at the head of the class. John Beohner and Roy Blunt are the past that led us to today.

  77. Chekote says:


    It looks like our side was spinning like hell. They should have spent the time to strategize a way to win.

  78. Brandon says:

    DOW is getting ready to crash at the open. I guess they didn’t like an Obama win.

  79. bonncaruso says:


    I have enjoyed coming to your site and reading input from the right, and also giving some input.

    When the official tallies are all signed, sealed and delivered, then I will post on my blog a large analysis of the margin averages from the final polls and my predictions as compared to the actual results. That will be a lot of data to digest, but I believe it is worth it.

    But we already know that statistically, Obama scored the 2nd highest percentage of the popular vote for a democrat since 1964 and the sixth highest percentage in the PV for a democrat in the last 100 years (LBJ 1964, FDR 1932, 1936, 1940, 1944, BO 2008, JC 1976, BC 1996, WW 1916, BC 1992, WW 1912)

    His national PV percentage was also better than that of Wilson in 1912 and 1916, Kennedy in 1960, Nixon in 1968, Carter in 1976, Reagan in 1980, Clinton in 1992 and 1996 and Bush 43 in both 2000 and 2004.

    I would say that his PV win does not qualify as a landslide in any way, but it was also not a squeaker. It was a solid moderate win with a mandate in the PV and a landslide in the EC.

    His margin, even without the exact offical tally to the 100th of a percent, is larger than that scored by Truman in 1948, Kennedy in 1968, Carter in 1976 and Clinton in 1992.

    It goes without saying that he has earned more votes than any democrat in history, but the comparison is unfair as the electorate has grown considerably throughout our history.

    And most importantly, his win has placed a new imprint on the electoral map of the union. Whether or not this imprint holds, we will first know in 4 and 8 years, but the trend in VA, NC, GA and CO will be something to watch for the future.

    On the republican side, although McCain lost MN, the fact that the race got so close in this a bastion DEM state should make GOP strategists think for the future.

  80. Robbie says:

    I think Sarah Palin should move to the Senate. History is rarely kind to vice presidential losers, at least right away. FDR can back 12 years later in 1932, but he had to wait. Palin needs to go to the Senate when Stevens leaves.

  81. Chekote says:


    Those people you mentioned are fine. But I want to see the GOP emphasize “limited government, capitalism and security”.

  82. Chun says:

    I think the Republican party will need to adopt a minority to have a future in American politics. Hispanics seems to be the best fit so what should they do to get their vote? George Bush III is getting groomed as we speak.

  83. Brandon says:

    I just want to know what happened to the record turnout that was supposed to come. Turnout will barely reach 2004 levels if that much.

  84. Howard Dean says:

    But I want to see the GOP emphasize “limited government, capitalism and security”.

    Comment by Chekote — 11/5/2008

    The GOP will never re-gain the Senate or WH during your lifetime.

    There will be MASSIVE new socialist programs within the next 18 mos.

    And they will never be rolled back.

  85. JetsNo12 says:

    Yesterday “dissent” was patriotic. Today it’s racist.

  86. Howard Dean says:

    I think the Republican party will need to adopt a minority to have a future in American politics. Hispanics seems to be the best fit so what should they do to get their vote? George Bush III is getting groomed as we speak.

    Comment by Chun — 11/

    You are right, the problem is the Dems are experts at race baiting.

    The Hispanics just voted against a pro-open borders/amnesty McCAin.

    By large margins.

  87. L TePaske says:

    The GOP has gotten lazy, and lame, a few members have good ideas but the majority seems to want to go along and get along. Why not have a filubuster and see how it goes not just say, well the 60 votes aren’t there and I don,t want to lose sleep, and it’s all about packaging and the GOP hasn’t been able to package anything right the past few years. President Bush proposed saving the Banks, a good thing, but it turns out the electorate doesn’t understand.

  88. JetsNo12 says:

    #87 “The GOP will never re-gain the Senate or WH during your lifetime.”

    Feel the same way today.

  89. Sharon says:

    #17….Excellent analysis on the Republican party and something I have been saying since Bush won his second term.

    With regards to time before O’s approval rating goes in the tank….I think it will within the first year. If he and the dem leadership truly try to initiate the things he suggested and the American people begin to listen to him instead of being caught up in the hysteria, he is going to tank fast.

    If the R party can get their act together and return the the party’s principals I think 2010 could be like this year only in reverse and will carry on to 2012.

    The people are tired to everything about Washington and so they had a temper tantrum last night. But like all tantrums they wear off and then reality sets in…this one will be no different.

  90. Chekote says:


    They will accuse us of being divisive. We need to come together now that Lord Obama has won. I will not acknowledge him as my president. It was not a fair election. It was a Soviet style election with the daily propaganda feedings from the MSM.

  91. bonncaruso says:

    In the percentage comparison from above, I got the FDR years in the wrong descending order: FDR 1936, 1932, 1940, 1944.

    Obama also broke one superlative record in state wins:

    ca +86 in DC (breaking Kerry’s record)

  92. adam says:

    I’ve visited this site extensively in 2004 and again in 2008. And maybe I’m reading the intent of the site wrong, but I thought it was supposed to be one of the “prediction” sites.

    But while I have respect for the republican-leaning website who put aside his beliefs to put forth what he though was an accurate prediction, the hedgehog report should be ASHAMED of having a 353-185 electoral prediction on the upper right corner, and a “polls are wrong, McCain has it in the bag” prediction in the middle of the page.

    If you are going to offer us predictions and good data, keep your political leanings out of it. Otherwise, I can just skip your site and say “the republican will always win because dave wants him to win”.

    Good job in 2004 when I doubted. Terrible job in 2008.

  93. wibble says:

    Comparing the actual results to the final polling averages as stated on RCP, Obama underperformed significantly (where there was more than a 5 point difference between results and polls) in AZ, OK, IA, ND, WY, LA, AR and AK, while he significantly overperformed in VT, HI, RI, NM and NV.

    The polls got it about right (where there was less than a 1 point difference between results and polls) in MT, KS, SD, MN, CA, NJ, and perhaps most importantly, NH, MO, VA and FL.

  94. Chekote says:


    Agreed. But we need to stick to smaller government, free enterprise and security. That needs to be our focus. The American people – especially the young – have no idea what they voted for last night. “Hope”. “Change”. That is not a platform.

  95. L TePaske says:

    Howard Dean you may be right, FDR elected for 16 yrs followed by hst thats 20 yrs puts us at 2028 you may be a bit pessemistic, but I can’t spell.

  96. MDefl says:


    I agree with you. We have to focus less on social issues and more on defense and economics. I am a libertarian on social issues and have never understood some of our issues. It also distracts and conflicts from our main message of self reliance with little interference from government.


    GA is still a solid red. We will have to see about VA or NC. I honestly thought (and was castigated here) that HRC would have won both easily. There may be a chance to develop a rust belt coalition of MN, WI and MI but I think that is a ways off.

    The GOP needs to pick at most 2 major themes and stick to it. The other stuff should be jettisoned or de-emphasized. The country has spoken. We better listen.

  97. JetsNo12 says:

    #93 Decades of liberal termites chewing away at the foundation of America finally took it’s toll last night. I will never get over a majority of my countrymen voting for what’s going to happen.

  98. MDefl says:


    Yes, the media was in the bag but we will have to find ways to work with him when we can but mark our lines of differentiation in a clear manner that illustrates that there is a better way.

  99. Brandon says:

    The Dem tidal wave didn’t occur. This was just a rejection of Bush.

  100. JetsNo12 says:

    Anybody want to be a reenlistment officer today?

  101. Chun says:

    353-185 is pretty darned accurate if you ask me. The rest of the stuff is up to you to determine if you think it is correct or not. It’s the internet and it’s a place where people exchange ideas and this site exchanged ideas that looked optimistically for the R’s. Nothing wrong with that. I think it is foolish to depend on any one site to give you their predictions and trust that they will be right 100% of the time.
    I looked at both lib and Conservative sites to get an idea what the buzz was from either side and it was useful to me in that way. There were also a lot of people like Polaris who were good sounding boards for my own liberal ideas and for that I am grateful.

  102. Hellbelly says:

    Howard Dean,

    regarding #87

    I honestly believe that you are very wrong……american’s took a turn for the left last night (no doubt)….but i believe that this was due more to a “throw the bums out” stance, rather than an embrace of socialism.

    No matter what the pundits say, this is still a conservative, religous country. It will be repelled (as it always is – except maybe in the 30’s) by government overreach.

    The victory of prop 8 in CA tells me that. The ability to maintain a Senate that can fillibuster tells me that.

    We’re angry and sad today (I know I am). America will take some hits from stupid decisions (no doubt). But over 200 years of rebellion against tight governmental control must not be ignored because the media drove a left winger into the White House.

    The GOP will regroup. We’ll find new leaders. This isn’t anywhere near as bad as ’64 when almost the entire establishment viewed Conservatism as dead and “movement” moribund. But William Buckley didn’t. Ronald Reagan didn’t. Milton Friedman didn’t. They took their lumps and emerged even stronger.

    And we will again.

  103. falcon says:

    My thoughts:

    It takes a National Crisis for a Democrat to get more than 50% of the vote. Carter. Now Obama.

    The election was always about Obama. It was his to win or lose. McCain did what he could.

    Obama will find a different set of realities to deal with than he ran on. His strident views will be moderated.

    The higher revenue from punitive taxes is illusory. Already, I have placed tax planning and entity structuring at the top of my list for 2009. I will be joined by businessmen all over America.

    That leaves spending. Someone, somehow needs to get ahold of spending in America. We are borrowing all the Social Security “surplus” to fund our spending (which masks the real deficit), and then borrowing more from overseas. Something will give.

    The R party needs to spend this time in the wilderness reinventing itself as more than the party of white people who are aging. The controversy of immigration hurt the McCain campaign… even though he was moderate on this issue.

    The R party was out-organized. There’s a lot to learn there.

    The fight isn’t over. It has fractured into a guerilla war that will last for at least 4 years.

    America is a great country.

    A final word to Polaris: Thank you. I appreciate all you did and the encouragement. In the end, Obama brought out many people and Indies didn’t break for McCain like we expected. Other than that, you were great! Thank you.


  104. oe says:

    Gordon Smith WON!!!!!!!

    Coleman and Stevens make it 44

  105. bio mom says:

    Looking over the state results carefully I see that as always, the incumbents win almost always. Meaning that in Dem states R incumbents mostly won and vice-versa. That is the biggest problem with this country as I see it, other than our lack of an honest press anymore. We need term limits. You just can’t beat an incumbent once they are ensconsed unless they have a sex scandal.

  106. JetsNo12 says:

    What’s the over/under on when Prop 8 is overturned?

  107. Chekote says:

    It also distracts and conflicts from our main message of self reliance with little interference from government.

    How can we get our voice heard in the GOP. Everytime I bring us de-emphasizing the social issues I get accused of wanting to kick out the pro-lifers. Or worse, they accuse me of being a baby killer. You cannot say that you want a limited government and at the same time advocate the banning of certain birth control methods. Issues very private in nature.

  108. MDefl says:

    Here is the bottom line folks:

    America elects a “mommy” when they are concerned about economic matters – the economy, healthcare etc..

    America elects a daddy when they are concerned about defense and security.

  109. Liberal Chris says:

    Hi all – just wanted to say enjoyed talking about and predicting the election on this site. I know it sucks to lose but this stuff all comes and goes. Best!

  110. bio mom says:

    Obama actually didn’t bring out a lot of people. There was about a 1% youth vote increase. Total votes are quite lower than they were in 2004 when Bush got 62 million and Kerry got 59 million. I imagine once everything settles we will see it was the Republicans who stayed home.

  111. Chun says:

    Repubs are also going to need to get some youth voters too, and working at a college tells me that the Libertarian message really attracts the young kids. They have to find a way to get the Ron Paul kids to join up but they tend to take a less than conservative approach to social issues.

  112. GPO says:

    107 oe

    link please!!!

  113. MDefl says:


    I hear your point. I have been accused and actually received a death threat because I don’t give a frig what 2 adults to in their own time.

    That is why I don’t post under my real name anymore. It was kinda scary how easy it was to find me.

    Oh, and I don’t have a victim mentality. Let’s just leave it at that.

  114. bio mom says:

    The liberal talking heads were trying to spin these results as a dramatic shift left for the entire country. Going on and on about it until Bill Bennett almost exploded, reminding them that it was the financial crisis that changed a McCain lead in September to these results, not a love for liberalism. I think they didn’t even hear him.

  115. Lars says:


    Paul Ryan in Wisconsin is an up-and-comer. Herb Kohl will not be running for another term when his is up in 2012, so look for Ryan to be a favorite to win his open seat.

  116. Chekote says:

    This is amazing. I usually get slaughtered whenever I say that the Republican party needs to adopt a more libertarian approach to social issues. There are at least two people that agree with me. Wow! How can we make our voices heard in the party.

  117. Party ID says:

    Hey all, No worries

    I reweighed the results with correct Party ID and we WON!!!!!!!!!! WHOOOOOO

    I knew it all along…

  118. American Thinker Fan says:

    Hey guys

    I think we forget that McCain was 4 points ahead per Ras before the Lehman meltdown.

    Barring the credit crisis, he would have won. That’s life.

    We also have to remember- Libs policies are a disaster. We know- that’s why we are conservatives. Please also note that many of the “battleground” states became “battleground” after the credit crisis.

    Here is my take:

    We have to emphasize social and economic issues. We should give no quarter for FM/FM, no compromise on economic policies.

  119. Chekote says:

    That bailout almost caused me to vote Libertarian. I only ended up support the straight Republican ticket because of Obama and Dems filibuster proof majorities.

  120. Tom says:

    Did Acorn hand Ohio to Obama?

  121. Robbie says:

    Howard Dean

    You and I have disagreed on a lot this year and I want to continue that one one point. You are right that it will take six years before Republicans can get back the Senate. I disagree though that we will never get it back. I am more optimistic today than I have been in four years.

  122. Howard Dean says:

    It takes a National Crisis for a Democrat to get more than 50% of the vote. Carter. Now Obama.


    It takes more than that.

    It takes a corrupt in the tank media and $650 million.

    No one seems to care about voter fraud or illegal donations to Obama.

    USA rip


  123. oe says:

    Falcon i agree. It seems like the Opposition is always better organized and Partisan.

    The good filibuster will be a start.

    Easy for RINOS to waver when have 49 seats, but know lii

  124. Chekote says:


    Depends what you mean by social issues.

  125. oe says:

    Howard I agree, but if conservatives keep watching NBC Football and the Office, the media will not care about you or me.

  126. GPO says:

    do u have alink for smith winning?

    I dont see one anywhere

  127. Tony says:

    Time to get ready for 2010.

    1st) Revenge on the ACORN/MSM machine.

    2nd) No matter what happens, when polled, every Republican should get Obama bad marks. That is what the Dems did for the last 6 years.

    3) Operation Chaos. If can they selected McCain for us, we can select thier congressional & senate candidates for them.

    4) Obama spent over $1 Billion when in-kind free MSM advertisement is considered. The Republican candidates will need to raise boatloads of money and should get started now.

  128. oe says:

    Robbie 4 Years

    2012 will be a bloodletting for the DEM Senate

    Those seats they won 2006 will be ours.

    Robbie we may end up with 44 Today which is good.

  129. Chekote says:

    We need to get around the MSM and educate voters as national issues come up. We can’t just run ads during elections. The MSM has successfully marginalized Fox News and talk radio. They are basically preaching to the choir.

  130. MDefl says:

    We will have our day again, trust me. It is just that it is time to start acting like conservatives in regards to small gov, fiscal restraint, less taxes and a strong defense.

    Those should be our major themes. We have gotten up in other issues that have caused us to lose the Reagan Dems who are not as socially conservative as we thought they were.

  131. oe says:

    Howard I agree we jumped the Shark last night and Amerika is screwed.

    But the filibuster should stop taxes and The Fairness doctrine.

    Ben Nelson from NEB is moderate and Lincoln in ARK is up in 2010 along with Salazar and Reid.

  132. Howard Dean says:

    I disagree though that we will never get it back. I am more optimistic today than I have been in four years.

    Comment by Robbie —

    Never happen.

    ACORN will thrive and receive MORE federal earmarks. They will work full time in ALL competitive states.

    Hispanics are voting for Dems in huge numbers, they just went against the MOST friendly R. Pro-open borders/amnesty.

    The Dems will create MASSIVE new spending entitlements that will be PERMANENT.

    Look more closely at what has happened. The Dems have refused to give Bush’s judicial nominees hearings, there are many important vacancies.

    Obama will fill them with radicals within 30 days. They will all sail through the senate.

    They will eventually overturn all the state measures that we pass.

    They control all major institutions of influence: Government, media, entertainment education.

    Don’t kid yourself.

  133. Chekote says:


    Time to forget the public campaign system and set up a process to raise billions through the Internet.

  134. oe says:

    I think fundraising could be a Nixon moment for Hussein.

  135. Howard Dean says:

    Get ready for a massive amnesty that will create…wait for it…MORE Dem voters!

    There is no future path to 270.

  136. oe says:

    Howard, Carter had 63 Senatete seats in 1977.

    Also there are know about 70 Dem’s in GOP districts up in 2010. Do you think they will vote for Socialism.

    Acorn only helps state races, not non urban House Races.

  137. MDefl says:

    I can’t see the future but if Pres Elect Obama governs as he has promised to do, then we can pick off quite a few House seats in 10. I am starting to think PA just might become a total Dem state. I am really stunned at what happened and will provide a post-mordem on Right Pundits when I am in a better frame of mind.

    The Senate won’t move much in 10, because only deep blue state senators are running. I can’t see 1 obvious pick up. 12 could be a different story but much will depend on where the country is at that moment in time. God forbid we should get stuck in a multi-year recession, then the D’s will pay greatly despite the msm, who will still be trying to blame the GOP.

    Here is some good news. Now that the D’s control everything, Bill Mahr really has very little to talk about anymore. I see his show being cancelled within 6 months.

    Oh and because there is some actual wiggle room in the Senate, their is very little chance of the Fairness Doctrine being implemented.

  138. Tony says:

    Chekote, I agree.

    It was idiotic for McCain to select public funds and it was even more idiotic for him to not renege on his agreement to accept public funds after Obama declined them.

  139. GPO says:


    you say Gordon Smith won

    where are you getting this?

    I cant find it anywhere

  140. Tina says:

    Well allow me one more post here.

    Congrats Dave on your #s – this site is fun. You should give Rdelbov and Tim Van some Ruth Chris Gift Certificates.

    This is Day 1 of rebuilding the conservative movement (not Republican).

    I did not appreciate some of the comments about me being a troll, etc by some here (who are not here today) because of my concerns with MAC, polls, and sources that were not giving me good news for our side. Nonetheless, I fought the good fight for MAC – even though I knew that it was an uphill fight and all polls could not be WRONG.

    I will return here in 6 months and can
    be found at the RP site.

    I like our new posters like Frank, Howard Dean, Knighthawk, etc.

    Take care and best of luck to President Obama.

  141. GPO says:

    Howard Dean is correct.

    Amnesty will bring in a generation of dem voters that will make the path to 270 near impossible

  142. MDefl says:


    Cheer up. My father told me this morning that many in 1976 were convinced that the GOP would go away and be replaced by another party. Ronald Reagan was sitting in the wings.

  143. Chun says:

    Here’s the Onion headline:

    Black Man Given Nation’s Worst Job

  144. Howard Dean says:

    oe, We can still do well in the House.

    It’s the senate and WH that are lost.

    The Carter reference doesn’t work, state demos have changed.

  145. bio mom says:

    I am more in line with Howard here. The youth are already compromised by their liberal, find fault with America educations. They will just get older and be replaced by more indoctrinated youth. With liberal control of our educational institutions down to K-12, there seems little hope. I am a northerner, but I thank God for the south. And the upper mountain states. But how long will they last for us?

  146. Chun says:

    Bio mom,

    The libertarian movement really plays well with the youth.

  147. L TePaske says:

    #148 Didn’t Montna go blue?

  148. Chun says:

    Marijuana is now a 100$ fine in MA. The MJ movement seems to be slowly moving towards legalization. I can see it happening within 20 yrs or less.

  149. L TePaske says:

    #149 The Libertarians have alot of probleme, some sounds good but can’t sell your soul for power

  150. knova_red says:

    151-should have been legalized, regulated and taxed years ago.

  151. Frank says:

    Was the party ID yesterday really +8 D?


  152. Chun says:

    152. This may be true but the Repubs need to find a new group to adopt. Social conservatives and neocons are not going to get the job done alone anymore.

  153. Brandon says:

    It was D +7. D39/R32

  154. Chun says:

    153. Agreed, and I’ve never even tried it.

  155. Frank says:


    Wow. That really stinks. What the heck happened?


  156. Brandon says:

    #158. Plain and simple. Historic black turnout that ID’d as Dems, and it seems that many R’s stayed home.

  157. Brutus says:


    Where are these amnesty illegals?

    Texas, NM, AZ, CA

    How will this change the route to 270?

    Think before react.

  158. Brandon says:

    I guess we should take most of the polls at face value now.

  159. bio mom says:

    Monntana stayed red.

  160. L TePaske says:

    162 You’re right , the last numbers I saw gave another picture.

  161. Chekote says:

    Take care and best of luck to President Obama.

    Comment by Tina

    You guys are way too gracious. This is why we lose. This was not a fair process. One side was permitted to raise money illegally. The other stuck to the letter of the law. One side was the beneficiary of a Pravda like coverage. The other was savaged at every turn by a supposedly “objective” media. So no. I am going to act just like the Left did when Bush was elected twice. Obama is an illegitimate president.

  162. Tina says:

    Chekote – there will be another day for that. Do not act bitter. I know its frustrating.

  163. Chekote says:


    It is not a question of being bitter. If it was a fair fight, I would accept the results. But it wasn’t. The media failed to do its job of investigating and educating the public. The money situation was ridiculous. $150 million in one MONTH! I guess there were tons of young people just waiting to give $200 to Obama. Yeah, right. This is why we lose. I remember when Dornan got defeated by that Sanchez woman. He brought clear evidence of voter fraud before the Congressional Committee controlled by the GOP. What did they do? Back down and let Sanchez win. We have to stop this behavior. We are in a political war. The Left understands that. Always, understood that. We still don’t see to get the message.

  164. Brutus says:


    Agreed. Nice guys finish last.

  165. Steve Z says:

    Believe me, I was praying that Polaris was right, and McCain could eke out a victory and get a veto pen. Now the Senate (hopefully with 44 Senators to filibuster) is our only bastion.

    IMHO, we were screwed by the financial crisis that hit in late September, and Obama’s blaming it on Bush. McCain was leading up until that point, but he failed to put the blame where it really belonged–on Democrats who forced Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to make bad loans to people who couldn’t afford them, which then percolated through the system into banks NOT backed up by the Government. President Bush’s handling of this was PITIFUL–HE should have placed the blame where it belonged, while he had the chance. I voted for Bush twice, but his inability to communicate with the American people led to this GOP debacle. By remaining silent and not saying anything while the Iraq war went bad in 2006, and when the economy went bad in 2008, he let the MSM pro-Democrat spin dominate the news without rebuttal, and voters fell for it.

    Hopefully, we’ll still have 44 Senators, and possibly Lieberman might help with some filibusters. If Stevens wins, Governor Palin should ask him to resign and appoint her Lt. Governor Parnell to the seat, and if he performs as she has, he would be a shoo-in in 2010.

    We should NOT abandon social conservatism, regarding pro-life and family and pro-religious issues–we see resolutions against gay marriage passing even in CA, and FL by 60% while Obama narrowly won FL.

    Reagan won his wide victories with a combination of fiscal conservatism (low taxes and spending), social conservatism (pro-life, pro-family), and a strong “peace through strength” foreign policy. George H.W. Bush lost in 1992 because he raised taxes. George W. Bush became unpopular by mishandling the war in Iraq and overspending in 2005-06, and having several GOP Congressmen indicted for corruption made things worse. McCain had it right on Iraq, but Obama managed to tie him to the economic failures which he blamed on Bush. We need to return to the three planks that got Reagan elected–fiscal, social, and foreign-policy conservatism, with candidates that can effectively communicate the reasons why they work. Reagan was an expert at communication, George W. Bush was not.

    Obama is a great communicator, but his actual achievements are minimal at best. Regardless of the ties to former terrorist Ayers, his management of the Annenberg Challenge was a failure–no improvement in the test scores. As an IL state senator, he funneled millions of State dollars to his business cronies to build tenements that fell into disrepair. As a U.S. Senator, he never led anything, and spent his last two years campaigning. Everything he has ever touched has been a failure, except political campaigns.

    Now, he will be expected to govern. How long will it take before voters realize he is totally incompetent and clueless? Will he invoke the Fairness Doctrine to “shut up” talk radio and Fox News, and will anyone be around to show people what’s really happening? Will he use card-check and union thugs to control workers? Will things get so bad by 2010 that everybody will wake up and want to “throw the bums out” with a 1994-style Congressional landslide?

    It’s time for Newt Gingrich to start recruiting the Class of 2010, and Sarah Palin and Bobby Jindal need to bone up for 2012.

  166. INC says:

    It’s amazing to me that some of you are ready to throw the social cons under the bus because the R’s lost.

    Did you notice that the marriage amendments in FL, AZ and I believe, even CA all passed?

    Protecting life is a fundamental issue for humanity. Pro-lifers an important part of the grass roots of the Republican party. The only disappointment was assisted suicide in WA. If I were elderly, I would move from there.

    This election was not lost because of social issues. Economic issues was the big loser. The GOP could not articulate the Dem’s responsibility on economic issues.

    The two big issues that drive national elections are usually defense or the economy. The third leg of the Republican party, social issues, buttresses the other two.

  167. INC says:

    Steve Z, thank you.

    I was writing my comment while you were posting yours.

  168. oe says:

    Obama is not my President.

    He can rot in Hell

  169. oe says:

    169. INC that is why I hope we have a Depression.

    The millions of moronic Whites that votes this fool in deserve to lose their savings.

    Whites will not get any handouts, Hussein will steer that towards the Hispanics and Blacks.

  170. bonncaruso says:

    172. “Whites will not get any handouts, Hussein will steer that towards the Hispanics and Blacks.”

    Ah, another screwed up racist.

  171. Good Captain says:

    I am severely disappointed by the election as the rest of you BUT nthing stays the same. We must reorganize. retool and most of all rethink what the R brand should be. Now that we are clearly the minority party, change is actually easier for us than it might have been.

    I don’t know if our wilderness experience will be 2 or 20 years, but it will not last. Why? Socialism always fails to live up to its promise. To borrow a phrase from the new majority, its a “carbon-based” economic philosophy that is unsustainable. The ever increasing need for more and more money coming from the productive ultimately assures its demise.

    My hope and belief is that we won’t get very far down that path, but we must get ready in the meantime. We must solicit honorable men and women for places of leadership w/in the party and move forward confidently.

  172. middle of the roader says:

    re: 21. Middle you said the DEMS would win 61 Seats, you are a fraud.

    Obama will be deadlocked by a new partisan GOP Senate.

    Comment by oe

    That is a bald-faced lie. Show me where I made that prediction. Don’t just make stuff up

  173. middle of the roader says:

    re: Middle of the roader the RCP average was still a few points high.
    Comment by dblaikie —

    Only by 1.6% (and closing) – The Great Polaris was a full 7% wrong (and expanding).