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November 4, 2019

Mixed Polls For Trump in Seven Swing States

If I am a Donald Trump fan, I am not too upset with the latest polls from The New York Times and Siena College that came out today.

PRESIDENT – MICHIGAN (NYT/Siena)
Joe Biden (D) 45%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 44%

Bernie Sanders (D) 46%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 42%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 45%
Elizabeth Warren (D) 40%

PRESIDENT – NORTH CAROLINA (NYT/Siena)
Donald Trump (R-inc) 48%
Joe Biden (D) 46%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 48%
Bernie Sanders (D) 44%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 48%
Elizabeth Warren (D) 44%

PRESIDENT – ARIZONA (NYT/Siena)
Joe Biden (D) 49%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 46%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 49%
Bernie Sanders (D) 45%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 47%
Elizabeth Warren (D) 46%

PRESIDENT – IOWA (NYT/Siena)
Donald Trump (R-inc) 45%
Joe Biden (D) 44%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 47%
Bernie Sanders (D) 43%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 47%
Elizabeth Warren (D) 40%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 45%
Pete Buttigieg (D) 41%

PRESIDENT – FLORIDA (NYT/Siena)
Joe Biden (D) 46%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 44%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 45%
Bernie Sanders (D) 44%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 46%
Elizabeth Warren (D) 42%

PRESIDENT – WISCONSIN (NYT/Siena)
Joe Biden (D) 46%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 44%

Bernie Sanders (D) 47%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 46%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 47%
Elizabeth Warren (D) 45%

PRESIDENT – PENSYLVANIA (NYT/Siena)
Joe Biden (D) 46%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 45%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 45%
Bernie Sanders (D) 44%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 46%
Elizabeth Warren (D) 44%

All these polls except IA were done starting October 13th and ending either October 23rd, 25th or 26th, depending on the state. The IA poll was done October 26-30 among 1422 likely voters

November 3, 2019

Biden Leads Trump in MI, Trump Leads Biden in NV

Just a weird combination of results from Emerson Polling for the states of Nevada and Michigan. While in the state of Nevada, Donald Trump holds a lead or is tied with the top Democrats in a state he lost in 2016, Democrats dominate Trump in Michigan where Trump won in 2016.

PRESIDENT – NEVADA (Emerson)
Donald Trump (R-inc) 50%
Bernie Sanders (D) 50%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 51%
Joe Biden (D) 49%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 51%
Elizabeth Warren (D) 49%

PRESIDENT – MICHIGAN (Emerson)
Bernie Sanders (D) 57%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 43%

Joe Biden (D) 56%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 44%

Elizabeth Warren (D) 54%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 46%

The NV poll was done October 31-November 2 while the MI poll was done October 31-November 3, among likely voters in each state.

Biden Leads Dems in Three Different Primary Polls

We had three, count ’em, three new national primary polls on the Democratic side that all basically say the same thing, Joe Biden with the lead, Elizabeth Warren in second, Bernie Sanders in third and Pete Buttigieg in fourth. The polls come from NBC News/Wall Street Journal, ABC News/Washington Post, and Fox News.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – DEM PRIMARY (NBC/WSJ)
Biden 27%
Warren 23%
Sanders 19%
Buttigieg 6%
Klobuchar 5%
Harris 4%
Yang 3%
Gabbard 2%
Booker 2%
Everyone Else 1% or less

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – DEM PRIMARY (ABC/WaPo)
Biden 28%
Warren 23%
Sanders 17%
Buttigieg 9%
Klobuchar 2%
Harris 2%
Yang 2%
Gabbard 2%
Booker 2%
Everyone Else 1% or less

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – DEM PRIMARY (Fox News)
Biden 31%
Warren 21%
Sanders 19%
Buttigieg 7%
Harris 3%
Yang 3%
Klobuchar 2%
Gabbard 2%
Booker 2%
O’Rourke 2%
Everyone Else 1% or less

In the General Election, Trump trails both top Democrats.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (Fox News)
Biden (D) 51%
Trump (R-inc) 39%

Warren (D) 46%
Trump (R-inc) 41%

Sanders (D) 49%
Trump (R-inc) 41%

Buttigieg (D) 41%
Trump (R-inc) 41%

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (Fox News)
Biden (D) 50%
Trump (R-inc) 41%

Warren (D) 50%
Trump (R-inc) 42%

All three polls were done October 27-30 among likely voters.

Posted by Dave at 2:30 pm
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November 1, 2019

Warren Leads/Biden in 4th in IA

We have another poll for the Democratic caucus in Iowa that shows Joe Biden mired in fourth place. This latest poll comes from The New York Times and Siena College.

PRESIDENT – IOWA – DEM CAUCUS (NYT/Siena)
Elizabeth Warren 22%
Bernie Sanders 19%
Pete Buttigieg 18%
Joe Biden 17%
Amy Klobuchar 4%
Kamala Harris 3%
Andrew Yang 3%
Tom Steyer 2%
Tulsi Gabbard 2%
Cory Booker 25
Everyone Else 1% or less

This poll was done October 25-30 among likely caucus goers.

October 29, 2019

Trump/Biden Tied in AZ, Biden Drops to 3rd in NH

Emerson College adds Arizona to the list of states that Donald Trump won in 2016 that is now edging into the Democratic column.

PRESIDENT – ARIZONA (Emerson)
Donald Trump (R-inc) 50%
Joe Biden (D) 50%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 50%
Elizabeth Warren (D) 50%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 51%
Bernie Sanders (D) 49%

US SENATE – ARIZONA (Emerson)
Mark Kelly (D) 46%
Martha McSally (R-inc) 45%

This poll was done October 25-28 among 901 registered voters. Meanwhile CNN and the University of New Hampshire have a new poll for the state of New Hampshire showing Joe Biden sitting in third place.

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – DEM PRIMARY (CNN/UNH)
Bernie Sanders 21%
Elizabeth Warren 18%
Joe Biden 15%
Pete Buttigieg 10%
Andrew Yang 5%
Amy Klobuchar 5%
Tulsi Gabbard 5%
Tom Steyer 3%
Kamala Harris 3%
Cory Booker 2%
Beto O’Rourke 2%
Everyone Else 1% or less

This poll was done October 21-27 among 574 likely primary voters.

October 25, 2019

Biden Falls to 4th in IA, Leads Shrinks in SC

There have been a number of polls lately, but none seemed more stark than this latest poll from Iowa State University for their home state showing how far Joe Biden is falling behind in this first state.

PRESIDENT – IOWA – DEM CAUCUS (ISU)
Elizabeth Warren 28%
Pete Buttigieg 20%
Bernie Sanders 18%
Joe Biden 12%
Amy Klobuchar 4%
Kamala Harris 3%
Tom Steyer 3%
Tulsi Gabbard 2%
Andrew Yang 2%
Everyone Else 1% or less

This poll was done October 18-22 among likely caucus goers. We’ve seen Biden is also struggling in New Hampshire and now we have a new poll from Change Research and The Post and Courier for the state of South Carolina that shows his lead down to only 11%.

PRESIDENT – SOUTH CAROLINA – DEM PRIMARY (Change Research)
Joe Biden 30%
Elizabeth Warren 19%
Bernie Sanders 13%
Kamala Harris 11%
Pete Buttigieg 9%
Tom Steyer 5%
Andrew Yang 4%
Cory Booker 3%
Tulsi Gabbard 3%
Amy Klobuchar 3%

This poll was done October 15-21 among 731 likely primary voters. According to the linked article, his lead was almost 20% just a couple months ago.

October 22, 2019

Trump Trails Biden and Warren in FL

We had a new poll from the University of North Florida today that shows Donald Trump trailing both Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren.

PRESIDENT – FLORIDA (UNF)
Joe Biden (D) 48%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 43%

Elizabeth Warren (D) 46%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 43%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 44%
Kamala Harris (D) 41$

Donald Trump (R-inc) 43%
Pete Buttigieg (D) 42%

Joe Biden (D) 49%
Mike Pence (R) 38%

Elizabeth Warren (D) 46%
Mike Pence (R) 40%

Interesting that Bernie Sanders was not included at all. This poll was done October 14-20 among 669 registered voters.

When Donald Trump is paired against Joe Biden, 43% of respondents indicated they would vote for Trump and 48% indicated a vote for Biden. When paired against Elizabeth Warren, Trump had 43% while Warren had 46%. Against Kamala Harris, 44% indicated a vote for Trump and 41% a vote for Harris. Lastly, Trump had 43% of the vote when paired against Pete Buttigieg, who had 42%.

October 21, 2019

Top Dems Lead Trump in MN

The Minnesota Star Tribune released a new poll for the state of Minnesota and it shows the top three Democrats plus home-state Senator Amy Klobuchar with healthy leads over Donald Trump.

PRESIDENT – MINNESOTA (Star Tribune)
Joe Biden (D) 50%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 38%

Elizabeth Warren (D) 51%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 40%

Bernie Sanders (D) 49%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 40%

Amy Klobuchar (D) 55%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 38%

This poll was done October 14-16 among 800 registered voters.

October 20, 2019

Hogan Leads Van Hollen in MD, Trump Trails Dems in VA

A Republican US Senator from Maryland? A long way away, but The Washington Post is showing in their latest poll that popular Republican Governor Larry Hogan would lead sitting US Senator Chris Van Hollen in a hypothetical 2022 match up for the US Senate.

US SENATE – MARYLAND – 2022 (WaPo)
Larry Hogan (R) 50%
Chris Van Hollen (D_-inc) 42%

This poll was done October 9-14 among registered voters. Meanwhile the the south of Maryland, a poll last week that came from Virginia Commonwealth University shows the top three Democrats ahead of Donald Trump.

PRESIDENT – VIRGINIA (VCU)
Joe Biden (D) 52%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 44%

Elizabeth Warren (D) 50%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 46%

Bernie Sanders (D) 48%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 47%

This poll was done September 23-October 4 among 800 registered voters.

October 19, 2019

Rispone Tied With Edwards in LA

We Ask America has come out with a new poll for the runoff in Louisiana that shows Republican Eddie Rispone and Democratic incumbent John Bel Edwards tied at 47%.

GOVERNOR – LOUISIANA (WAA)
Eddie Rispone (R) 47%
John Bel Edwards (D-inc) 47%

This poll was done October 14-16 among 600 likely voters.

Posted by Dave at 9:58 pm
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