2020 EV WATCH
Trump : 186
Biden : 352
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2020 SENATE WATCH
GOP : 49
DEM : 49
IND : 2
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    July 28, 2020

    Biden Still Leads Trump In Most Battleground States

    We got quite the poll dump today from all over the place and it started this morning with a slew of polls form Morning Consult in a bunch of states including some we do not see much polling in. That being said, no real surprises in the numbers against what we have seen.

    PRESIDENT – WISCONSIN (MC)
    Biden (D) 50%
    Trump (R-inc) 43%

    PRESIDENT – VIRGINIA (MC)
    Biden (D) 52%
    Trump (R-inc) 41%

    PRESIDENT – TEXAS (MC)
    Biden (D) 47%
    Trump (R-inc) 45%

    PRESIDENT – PENNSYLVANIA (MC)
    Biden (D) 50%
    Trump (R-inc) 42%

    PRESIDENT – OHIO (MC)
    Trump (R-inc) 48%
    Biden (D) 45%

    PRESIDENT – NORTH CAROLINA (MC)
    Biden (D) 47%
    Trump (R-inc) 47%

    PRESIDENT – MINNESOTA (MC)
    Biden (D) 47%
    Trump (R-inc) 44%

    PRESIDENT – MICHIGAN (MC)
    Biden (D) 52%
    Trump (R-inc) 42%

    PRESIDENT – GEORGIA (MC)
    Biden (D) 47%
    Trump (R-inc) 46%

    PRESIDENT – FLORIDA (MC)
    Biden (D) 49%
    Trump (R-inc) 46%

    PRESIDENT – COLORADO (MC)
    Biden (D) 52%
    Trump (R-inc) 39%

    PRESIDENT – ARIZONA (MC)
    Biden (D) 49%
    Trump (R-inc) 42%

    At the US Senate level, the numbers align with what we have seen recently.

    US SENATE – ARIZONA (MC)
    Mark Kelly (D) 52%
    Martha McSally (R-inc) 36%

    US SENATE – COLORADO (MC)
    John Hickenlooper (D) 48%
    Cory Gardner (R-inc) 42%

    US SENATE – GEORGIA (MC)
    David Perdue (R-inc) 45%
    Jon Ossoff (D) 42%

    US SENATE – MICHIGAN (MC)
    Gary Peters (D-inc) 52%
    John James (R) 36%

    US SENATE – NORTH CAROLINA (MC)
    Cal Cunningham (D) 46%
    Thom Tillis (R-inc) 37%

    These polls were all done July 17-26 among likely voters in each state. Meanwhile Public Policy Polling did a a number of polls for AFSCME.

    PRESIDENT – GEORGIA (PPP)
    Biden (D) 46%
    Trump (R-inc) 45%

    PRESIDENT – COLORADO (PPP)
    Biden (D) 54%
    Trump (R-inc) 41%

    PRESIDENT – MAINE (PPP)
    Biden (D) 53%
    Trump (R-inc) 42%

    PRESIDENT – MONTANA (PPP)
    Trump (R-inc) 50%
    Biden (D) 45%

    PRESIDENT – NORTH CAROLINA (PPP)
    Biden (D) 49%
    Trump (R-inc) 46%

    PRESIDENT – ALASKA (PPP)
    Trump (R-inc) 50%
    Biden (D) 44%

    PRESIDENT – IOWA (PPP)
    Trump (R-inc) 48%
    Biden (D) 47%

    These polls were all done July 23-24 among registered voters.

    July 26, 2020

    Biden Leads Trump in AZ, MI, FL and PA

    This morning CNN released polls for three states won by Donald Trump in 2016 and in all three (Arizona, Florida, Michigan), Trump now trails Joe Biden.

    PRESIDENT – ARIZONA (CNN)
    Biden (D) 49%
    Trump (R-inc) 45%

    PRESIDENT – MICHIGAN (CNN)
    Biden (D) 52%
    Trump (R-inc) 40%

    PRESIDENT – FLORIDA (CNN)
    Biden (D) 51%
    Trump (R-inc) 46%

    US SENATE – ARIZONA (CNN)
    Mark Kelly (D) 50%
    Martha McSally (R-inc) 43%

    US SENATE – MICHIGAN (CNN)
    Gary Peters (D-inc) 54%
    John James (R) 38%

    These polls were all done July 18-24 among likely voters in each state. Meanwhile, also realsed this morning for Arizona is a new poll from Marist College that shows a similar deficit for both Trump and Martha McSally.

    PRESIDENT – ARIZONA (Marist)
    Biden (D) 50%
    Trump (R-inc) 45%

    US SENATE – ARIZONA (Marist)
    Mark Kelly (D) 53%
    Martha McSally (R-inc) 41%

    This poll was done July 14-22 among 826 registered voters. Adding to the Michigan poll above, CBS News and YouGov put out a poll of their own and included Ohio in the mix.

    PRESIDENT – MICHIGAN (CBS News/YouGov)
    Biden (D) 48%
    Trump (R-inc) 42%

    PRESIDENT – OHIO (CBS News/YouGov)
    Trump (R-inc) 46%
    Biden (D) 45%

    These polls were done July 21-24 among likely voters in each state. Finally, a poll that came out from Gravis Marketing yesterday for the state of Pennsylvania has Biden ahead by 3%.

    PRESIDENT – PENNSYLVANIA (Gravis)
    Biden (D) 48%
    Trump (R-inc) 45%

    This poll was done July 22-24 among 1006 likely voters.

    July 24, 2020

    GOP Trails in US Senate Races in AZ, NC, ME and MI, Biden Leads Trump in MI and WI

    Public Policy Polling released new polls for three US Senate races in North Carolina, Arizona, and Maine showing Republicans on the verge of losing all three seats they currently hold.

    US SENATE – NORTH CAROLINA (PPP)
    Cal Cunningham (D) 48%
    Thom Tillis (R-inc) 40%

    US SENATE – ARIZONA (PPP)
    Mark Kelly (D) 51%
    Martha McSally (R-inc) 42%

    US SENATE – MAINE (PPP)
    Sara Gideon (D) 47%
    Susan Collins (R-inc) 42%

    The Maine poll was done July 21-22 and the NC and AZ polls were done July 22-23, all among likely voters. Meanwhile, Gravis Marketing released new polls for the states of Michigan and Wisconsin that shows Trump behind in these two states he won in 2016.

    PRESIDENT – WISCONSIN (Gravis)
    Joe Biden (D) 50%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 42%

    PRESIDENT – MICHIGAN (Gravis)
    Joe Biden (D) 51%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 42%

    US SENATE – MICHIGAN (Gravis)
    Gary Peters (D-inc) 49%
    John James (R) 39%

    Both polls were done July 22nd among likely voters in each state.

    Biden Dominates Trump in FL, PA, MN and MI

    Mopping up some from yesterday with some really bad numbers for Donald Trump at the state level. We’ll start with two separate polls for the state of Florida, one from StPetePolls.org and one from Quinnipiac University.

    PRESIDENT – FLORIDA (Quinnipiac)
    Joe Biden (D) 51%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 38%

    PRESIDENT – FLORIDA (StPetePolls)
    Joe Biden (D) 50%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 44%

    The StPetePolls poll was done July 13-14 among 3018 likely voters. The Q-Poll was done July 16-20 among 924 likely voters. Meanwhile Fox News gave us numbers for Pennsylvania, Minnesota and Michigan that show all three states well out of Trump ‘s reach at this current moment.

    PRESIDENT – PENNSYLVANIA (Fox News)
    Joe Biden (D) 50%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 39%

    PRESIDENT – MINNESOTA (Fox News)
    Joe Biden (D) 51%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 38%

    PRESIDENT – MICHIGAN (Fox News)
    Joe Biden (D) 49%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 40%

    US SENATE – MICHIGAN (Fox News)
    Gary Peters (D-inc) 48%
    John James (R) 38%

    These polls were done July 18-20 among likely voters in each state.

    July 22, 2020

    Biden Leads Trump in TX, GA and AZ

    Quinnipiac University has released a new poll in the state of Texas that has Joe Biden up on Donald Trump by a single-percentage point.

    PRESIDENT – TEXAS (Quinnipiac)
    Joe Biden (D) 45%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 44%

    US SENATE – TEXAS (Quinnipiac)
    John Cornyn (R-inc) 47%
    MJ Hegar (D) 38%

    This poll was done July 16-20 among 880 likely voters. In Georgia, Democratic US Senate candidate Jon Ossoff paid for a poll by Garin Hart Yang Research that only managed to get him to a 1% lead over David Perdue.

    PRESIDENT – GEORGIA (GHYR)
    Joe Biden (D) 47%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 43%

    This poll was one July 9-15 among 800 likely voters. Finally in Arizona, a new poll from Public Policy Polling has Biden up on Trump by 4%.

    PRESIDENT – ARIZONA (PPP)
    Joe Biden (D) 49%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 45%

    This poll was done July 17-18 among 960 likely voters.

    Biden Leads Trump By 3% in PA and 4% in OH

    Yesterday we got a couple new polls from the Center for American Greatness that shows voters in Ohio and Pennsylvania support Joe Biden over Donald Trump in both states.

    PRESIDENT – OHIO (Pulse/Rasmussen)
    Joe Biden (D) 47%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 43%

    PRESIDENT – PENNSYLVANIA (Pulse/Rasmussen)
    Joe Biden (D) 48%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 45%

    Both polls were done July 15-16 among 750 likely voters.

    July 20, 2020

    Trump Leads By 7%, Trump Leads By 1% in NC

    The Trafalgar Group has put out the most optimistic poll Donald Trump has seen in a while for the state of Georgia.

    PRESIDENT – GEORGIA (Trafalgar)
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 50%
    Joe Biden (D) 43%

    This poll was done July 15-18 among 1023 registered voters. No US Senate numbers were included, not sure if they will at some point. Meanwhile in North Carolina, a polling organization I had never heard of until now called Cardinal Point Analytics released a new poll in North Carolina that is also more optimistic for Republicans than other recent polling.

    PRESIDENT – NORTH CAROLINA (CPA Polling)
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 49%
    Joe Biden (D) 48%

    US SENATE – NORTH CAROLINA (CPA Polling)
    Cal Cunningham (D) 47%
    Thom Tillis (R-inc) 44%

    GOVERNOR – NORTH CAROLINA (CPA Polling)
    Roy Cooper (D-inc) 49%
    Dan Forest (R) 46%

    This poll was done July 13-15 among 547 likely voters.

    July 18, 2020

    Trump Leads by 4%, Graham Leads by 7% in SC

    We have a new poll out today from Gravis Marketing for the state of South Carolina that shows Donald Trump’s lead over Joe Biden at only 4% while Lindsey Graham holds a 7% lead in his bid for re-election over James Harrison.

    PRESIDENT – SOUTH CAROLINA (Gravis)
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 50%
    Joe Biden (D) 46%

    US SENATE – SOUTH CAROLINA (Gravis)
    Lindsey Graham (R-inc) 48%
    James Harrison (D) 41%

    This poll was done July 17th among 604 likely voters.

    July 15, 2020

    Biden Leads Trump in AZ, FL, MI, NC, PA, and WI

    Change Research is back at it again with their latest poll of six battleground states won by Trump in 2016 and they show all six still in Biden’s camp this time around.

    PRESIDENT – MICHIGAN (Change Research)
    Joe Biden (D) 48%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 42%

    PRESIDENT – PENNSYLVANIA (Change Research)
    Joe Biden (D) 50%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 42%

    PRESIDENT – FLORIDA (Change Research)
    Joe Biden (D) 50%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 43%

    PRESIDENT – NORTH CAROLINA (Change Research)
    Joe Biden (D) 47%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 46%

    PRESIDENT – ARIZONA (Change Research)
    Joe Biden (D) 51%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 45%

    PRESIDENT – WISCONSIN (Change Research)
    Joe Biden (D) 48%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 42%

    At the US Senate level, as before Democrats are leading in all three states being contested from above, including two seats currently held by Republicans.

    US SENATE – MICHIGAN (Change Research)
    Gary Peters (D-inc) 50%
    John James (R) 43%

    US SENATE – ARIZONA (Change Research)
    Mark Kelly (D-inc) 52%
    Martha McSally (R-inc) 45%

    US SENATE – NORTH CAROLINA (Change Research)
    Cal Cunningham (D) 49%
    Thom Tillis (R-inc) 42%

    These polls were all done June 10-12 among likely voters.

    July 14, 2020

    Daines Leads Bullock By 2% in MT, Biden Leads Trump By 10% in FL

    For a second straight day, we get a new poll for the state of Montana. This one comes from Civiqs and Daily Kos and gives slightly better numbers for Republicans across the board except for the Presidential race.

    PRESIDENT – MONTANA (Civiqs/DK)
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 49%
    Joe Biden (D) 45%

    US SENATE – MONTANA (Civiqs/DK)
    Steve Daines (R-inc) 49%
    Steve Bullock (D) 47%

    US HOUSE – MONTANA (Civiqs/DK)
    Matt Rosendale (R) 49%
    Kathleen Williams (D) 47%

    GOVERNOR – MONTANA (Civiqs/DK)
    Greg Gianforte (R) 47%
    Mike Cooney (D) 44%

    this poll was done July 11-13 among 873 registered voters. A new poll from OH Predictive Insights continues to show Republican Martha McSally trailing Democrat Mark Kelly.

    US SENATE – ARIZONA (OHPI)
    Mark Kelly (D) 52%
    Martha McSally (R-inc) 43%

    This poll was done July 6-7 among 600 likely voters. Finally, a new poll form Gravis Marketing for the state of Florida.

    PRESIDENT – FLORIDA (Gravis)
    Joe Biden (D) 53%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 43%

    This poll was done July 13th among 529 likely voters.