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February 28, 2019

Trump Below 50% Against Dems in TX

Quinnipiac University has put out a poll today for the state of Texas showing Donald Trump below 50% against a slew of Democratic candidates.

PRESIDENT – TEXAS (Quinnipiac)
Donald Trump (R-inc) 47%
Joe Biden (D) 46%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 47%
Bernie Sanders (D) 45%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 47%
Beto O’Rourke (D) 46%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 46%
Julian Castro (D) 41%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 48%
Kamala Harris (D) 41%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 48%
Elizabeth Warren (D) 41%

In the US Senate race, should Beto O’Rourke decide to challenge John Cornyn instead, they would start out tied.

US SENATE – TEXAS (Quinnipiac)
John Cornyn (R-inc) 46%
Beto O’Rourke (D) 46%

This poll was done February 20-25 among 1222 registered voters. For Quinnipiac’s most recent record in Texas, in their final poll before the 2018 elections, they had Ted Cruz up 51%-46% over Beto O’Rourke (it ended up 51%-48%) and Greg Abbott up 54%-40% over Lupe Valdez (it ended up 56%-43%).

February 23, 2019

Sanders Leads Biden By 2% in NH

We have a new poll from Emerson College for the state of New Hampshire that puts Bernie Sanders on top of Joe Biden by a couple of percentage points.

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – DEM PRIMARY (Emerson)
Bernie Sanders 27%
Joe Biden 25%
Kamala Harris 12%
Elizabeth Warren 9%
Amy Klobuchar 8%
Beto O’Rourke 5%
Cory Booker 5%
Michael Bloomberg 2%
Kirsten Gillibrand 1%
John Delaney 1%
Pete Buttigieg 1%
Sherrod Brown 1%
Julian Castro 0%
Tulsi Gabbard 0%

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – GOP PRIMARY (Emerson)
Donald Trump (inc) 82%
Bill Weld 18%

At the General Election level, The top Democrats all lead Trump in head-to-head match ups.

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE (Emerson)
Elizabeth Warren (D) 52%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 48%

Bernie Sanders (D) 55%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 45%

Joe Biden (D) 55%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 45%

Kamala Harris (D) 52%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 48%

Cory Booker (D) 51%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 49%

With Howard Schultz in the General Election as a third candidate, it helps out Trump.

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE (Emerson)
Donald Trump (R-inc) 45%
Elizabeth Warren (D) 44%
Howard Schultz (I) 12%

Bernie Sanders (D) 48%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 42%
Howard Schultz (I) 10%

No Biden/Trump/Schultz three-way match up was included for some reason. Finally, a potential match up between the sitting Democratic US Senator and Republican Governor shows them in a dead heat tie should they face off.

US SENATE – NEW HAMPSHIRE (Emerson)
Jeanne Shaheen (D-inc) 44%
Chris Sununu (R) 44%

This poll was done February 21-22 among

This poll was done February 7-15 among 337 likely Democratic primary voters.

Biden/Trump Tied in AZ

We got more numbers from that Arizona poll I posted earlier in the week from OH Predictive Insights. The additional numbers show Donald Trump with a decent lead unless Joe Biden becomes the Democratic nominee.

PRESIDENT – ARIZONA (OHPI)
Donald Trump (R-inc) 46%
Joe Biden (D) 46%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 49%
Kamala Harris (D) 40%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 49%
Elizabeth Warren (D) 38%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 49%
Bernie Sanders (D) 37%

This poll was done February 12-13 among 600 likely voters.

February 20, 2019

Biden Leads Dems in NH, Sanders in 2nd

Snow storm keeping me in, so how about a second post in a day. We have a new poll from the University of Massachusetts and YouGov for the state of New Hampshire that shows what just about every Democratic primary poll shows, Joe Biden in first and Bernie Sanders in second.

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – DEM PRIMARY (UMass/YouGov)
Joe Biden 28%
Bernie Sanders 20%
Kamala Harris 14%
Elizabeth Warren 9%
Beto O’Rourke 6%
Cory Booker 3%
Kirsten Gillibrand 3%
Amy Klobuchar 1%
Julian Castro 1%

This poll was done February 7-15 among 337 likely Democratic primary voters.

Trump Leads Biden By 4% in NC

We received a new poll from the Civitas Institute that was done by Harper Polling that shows Donald Trump with a 4% lead over Joe Biden in the state of North Carolina and an even larger lead against the other top Democrats.

PRESIDENT – NORTH CAROLINA (Civitas/Harper)
Donald Trump (R-inc) 43%
Joe Biden (D) 39%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 46%
Bernie Sanders (D) 34%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 45%
Kamala Harris (D) 34%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 44%
Cory Booker (D) 36%

This poll was done February 11-13 among 500 likely voters.

Posted by Dave at 7:42 am
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February 18, 2019

McSally Leads Kelly By 2% in AZ, Trump Leads Biden By 3% in TX

Mark Kelly has entered the race to take on Martha McSally next year, but according to a new poll from OH Predictive Insights, he would start out behind by 2% to McSally.

US SENATE – ARIZONA (OH Predictive Insights)
Martha McSally (R-inc) 46%
Mark Kelly (D) 44%

Martha McSally (R-inc) 49%
Ruben Gallego (D) 41%

This poll was done February 12-13 among 600 likely voters. Meanwhile in Texas, Public Policy Polling did a poll that shows Donald Trump only ahead of Joe Biden by 3% in the state of Texas while John Cornyn only holds a 2% lead over Bet O’Rourke in a hypothetical US Senate race.

PRESIDENT – TEXAS (PPP)
Donald Trump (R-inc) 49%
Joe Biden (D) 46%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 49%
Kamala Harris (D) 40%

US SENATE – TEXAS (PPP)
John Cornyn (R-inc) 47%
Beto O’Rourke (D) 45%

Somewhat surprised they did not poll a Trump-O’Rourke match up for President in this poll. This poll was done February 13-14 among 743 registered voters.

February 17, 2019

Biden Leads Dems By Double Digits, Trump Leads Weld Among GOP Voters by 60%

Emerson College has put out a new poll on the Presidential race that shows Joe Bide still holding a double-digit lead among Democrats while Trump starts at 85% against just announced potential primary challenger Bill Weld.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – DEM PRIMARY (Emerson)
Joe Biden 27%
Bernie Sanders 17%
Kamala Harris 15%
Elizabeth Warren 9%
Cory Booker 9%
Amy Klobuchar 5%
Beto O’Rourke 4%
Sherrod Brown 3%
Michael Bloomberg 2%
Tulsi Gabbard 2%
Kirsten Gillibrand 1%
Julian Castro 1%
John Delaney 0%
Pete Buttigieg 0%

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – GOP PRIMARY (Emerson)
Donald Trump (inc) 85%
Bill Weld 15%

In the General Election, Trump trails all the Democrats.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (Emerson)
Joe Biden (D) 55%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 45%

Bernie Sanders (D) 51%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 49%

Kamala Harris (D) 52%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 48%

Elizabeth Warren (D) 53%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 47%

Beto O’Rourke (D) 53%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 47%

Cory Booker (D) 51%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 49%

Amy Klobuchar (D) 51%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 49%

Sherrod Brown (D) 52%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 48%

The poll did include two trial runs including Howard Schultz that shows Schultz helps out Trump.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (Emerson)
Joe Biden (D) 51%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 42%
Howard Schultz (I) 7%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 45%
Kamala Harris (D) 43%
Howard Schultz (I) 12%

This poll was done February 14-16 among registered voters.

February 10, 2019

Biden Leads Dems in IA, NH and SC

Late last week, we received three new polls for the early primary states from Firehouse Strategies and 0ptimus showing Joe Biden leading in all three states.

PRESIDENT – IOWA – DEM CAUCUS (Firehouse/0ptimus)
Joe Biden 25%
Kamala Harris 17%
Elizabeth Warren 11%
Bernie Sanders 10%
Amy Klobuchar 5%
Beto O’Rourke 4%
Cory Booker 4%
Kirsten Gillibrand 1%

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – DEM PRIMARY (Firehouse/0ptimus)
Joe Biden 22%
Bernie Sanders 13%
Kamala Harris 13%
Elizabeth Warren 9%
Cory Booker 4%
Beto O’Rourke 2%
Amy Klobuchar 2%
Kirsten Gillibrand 0%

PRESIDENT – SOUTH CAROLINA – DEM PRIMARY (Firehouse/0ptimus)
Joe Biden 36%
Kamala Harris 12%
Bernie Sanders 8%
Cory Booker 5%
Elizabeth Warren 4%
Beto O’Rourke 2%
Amy Klobuchar 1%
Kirsten Gillibrand 0%

All three polls were done January 31-February 2 among likely voters or caucus goers in each state.

February 6, 2019

Hood Leads Reeves by 2% in MS

A rare poll for this year’s gubernatorial race in Mississippi from Mason-Dixon.

GOVERNOR – MISSISSIPPI (Mason-Dixon)
Jim Hood (D) 44%
Tate Reeves (R) 42%

Jim Hood (D) 40%
Tate Reeves (R) 38%
Bill Waller Jr (I) 9%

GOVERNOR – MISSISSIPPI – GOP PRIMARY (Mason-Dixon)
Tate Reeves 62%
Robert Foster 9%

This poll was done January 30-February 1 among 625 registered voters. This poll has been added to The Hedgehog Report PollWatch page for Mississippi.

February 4, 2019

Biden Leads National Primary Race By 13%

We have another national Democratic poll that continues to show Joe Biden leading the race with Bernie Sanders in second and Kamala Harris surging into third. The latest numbers from Monmouth University.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – DEM PRIMARY (Monmouth)
Joe Biden 29%
Bernie Sanders 16%
Kamala Harris 11%
Elizabeth Warren 8%
Beto O’Rourke 7%
Mike Bloomberg 4%
Cory Booker 4%
Amy Klobuchar 2%
Eric Holder 1%
Sherrod Brown 1%
John Hickenlooper 1%
Tulsi Gabbard 1%
Kirsten Gillibrand 1%
Andrew Yang 1%
Julián Castro 1%
John Delaney <1%
Jay Inslee <1%
Terry McAuliffe <1%
Pete Buttigieg 0%

This poll was done January 25-27 among 313 registered Democratic voters.

GALLUP
AMERICAN RESEARCH GROUP
PUBLIC POLICY POLLING
RASMUSSEN REPORTS