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March 5, 2018

Dem Leads in PA Special Election by 3%

Trouble for Republicans in next week’s special election for a vacant US House seat according to a new poll from Emerson College.

US HOUSE – PENNSYLVANIA – CD18 SPECIAL (Emerson)
Conor Lamb (D) 48%
Rick Saccone (D) 45%

This poll was done March 1-3 among 474 likely voters.

March 2, 2018

Hogan Leads Top Three Dems By Double Digits in MD

Contrary to what I said yesterday, Mason-Dixon Polling did do the head-to-head match ups for the gubernatorial race in my home state and it shows our Republican Governor holding a double-digit lead over the top three Democrats.

GOVERNOR – MARYLAND (Mason-Dixon)
Larry Hogan (R-inc) 51%
Rushern Baker (D) 36%

Larry Hogan (R-inc) 50%
Ben Jealous (D) 33%

Larry Hogan (R-inc) 49%
Kevin Kamenetz (D) 34%

This poll was done February 20-22 among 625 registered voters. There is an ability to win as a Republican even in a blue state despite Donald Trump being the face of the party.

March 1, 2018

Baker Leads Dem Field in MD

Mason-Dixon Polling has put out a new poll for the Democratic primary race in Maryland and it shows what most other polls have shown, Rushern Baker leading the field.

GOVERNOR – MARYLAND – DEM PRIMARY (Mason-Dixon)
Rushern Baker 26%
Kevin Kamenetz 15%
Ben Jealous 14%
Richard Madaleno 4%
Krishanti Vignarajah 3%
Jim Shea 3%
Alec Ross 2%
Ralph Jaffe 1%

This poll was done February 20-24 among 500 registered Democratic voters. It does not appear they did a head-to-head poll for the General Election.

February 27, 2018

Nelson Leads Scott By 4% in FL

Quinnipiac University released a poll earlier today showing current US Senator Bill Nelson with a 45 lead over current Governor Rick Scott in Scott’s bid to take Nelson’s seat.

US SENATE – FLORIDA (Quinnipiac)
Bill Nelson (D-inc) 46%
Rick Scott (R) 42%

This poll was done February 23-26 among 1156 registered voters.

Heitkamp leads Cramer By 3% in ND

A US Senate seat pick up for Republicans in North Dakota is by no means a sure thing according to a new poll from Gravis Marketing.

US SENATE – NORTH DAKOTA (Gravis)
Heidi Heitkamp (D-inc) 43%
Kevin Cramer (R) 40%

This poll was done February 21-24 among 385 registered voters.

February 22, 2018

Baker/Cardin Lead Primary Races in MD

As promised Goucher College released the rest of their Maryland poll and it shows Rushern Baker leading the field for the right to take on popular Republican Governor Larry Hogan while Ben Cardin absolutely dominates Chelsea Manning for the Democratic US Senate primary race.

GOVERNOR – MARYLAND – DEM PRIMARY (Goucher)
Rushern Baker 19%
Kevin Kamenetz 12%
Ben Jealous 10%
Alec Ross 3%
Rich Madaleno 2%
Jim Shea 2%
Krish Vignarajah 2%
Ralph Jaffe 1%

US SENATE – MARYLAND – DEM PRIMARY (Goucher)
Ben Cardin (inc) 61%
Chelsea Manning 17%

This poll was done February 12-18 among 409 likely Democratic primary voters.

February 20, 2018

MD: Hogan Above 60% Job Approval Rating

We have a new poll in my home state of Maryland that shows our Republican Governor continues to hold a high job approval rating as he faces re-election later this year. According to Goucher College, his job approval remains at above 60% with a disapproval rating of less than 20%.

MD GOVERNOR LARRY HOGAN – JOB APPROVAL
Approve 61%
Disapprove 18%

The poll apparently did not include any head-to-head match ups with Democrats, which is somewhat disappointing. It sounds like they will be releasing primary numbers on Thursday on the Democratic side.

February 18, 2018

Saccone Leads Two Polls in PA-18

The special election in Pennsylvania for the vacated-Republican seat is coming up on March 13th and in the last few days we had two different polls showing Republican Rick Saccone with a single-digit lead. The polls come from Monmouth University and Gravis Marketing.

US HOUSE – PENNSYLVANIA – CD18 SPECIAL (Monmouth)
Rick Saccone(R) 49%
Conor Lamb (D) 46%

US HOUSE – PENNSYLVANIA – CD18 SPECIAL (Gravis)
Rick Saccone(R) 46%
Conor Lamb (D) 40%

The Monmouth poll was done February 12-14 among 320 likely voters. The Gravis Marketing poll was done February 13-15 among 602 likely voters.

February 14, 2018

Trump leads Gillibrand in 2020 Match Up

Public Policy Polling has come out with their latest poll for the Presidential race in 2020.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (PPP)
Joe Biden (D) 51%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 42%

Cory Booker (D) 46%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 42%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 43%
Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 42%

Kamala Harris (D) 43%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 43%

Joe Kennedy (D) 46%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 43%

Bernie Sanders (D) 48%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 44%

Elizabeth Warren (D) 44%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 44%

Maybe it is just me, but I would have expected much worse numbers for Trump in national head-to-head match ups than the numbers above show. This poll was done February 9-11 among 687 registered voters.

February 10, 2018

Contradictory Polls in US Senate Race in FL

Earlier this week, we received three different polls for the US Senate race in Florida, one came from the University of North Florida, one came from Florida Atlantic University, and one came from Mason-Dixon Polling.

US SENATE – FLORIDA (UNF)
Bill Nelson (D-inc) 48%
Rick Scott (R) 42%

US SENATE – FLORIDA (Mason-Dixon)
Bill Nelson (D-inc) 45%
Rick Scott (R) 44%

US SENATE – FLORIDA (FAU)
Rick Scott (R) 44%
Bill Nelson (D-inc) 34%

The UNF poll was done January 29th-February 4th; the Mason-Dixon poll was done January 30th-February 1st, and the FAU poll was done February 1st-4th. So we have three polls for the same race taken over roughly the same time period that range from a 6% lead for Bill Nelson to a 10% lead for Rick Scott. Clearly polling has not gotten much better….

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