2020 EV WATCH
Trump : 186
Biden : 352
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2020 SENATE WATCH
GOP : 47
DEM : 51
IND : 2
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    October 27, 2020

    Biden Leads Trump By 9% in NV, 5% in GA and 2% in FL / Dems Leads Both Senate Races in GA

    A lot of supporters of Donald Trump seem to think the state of Nevada is in play these days, but a new poll from BUSR/UNLV Lee Business School shows Joe Biden with a 9% lead over Donald Trump.

    PRESIDENT – NEVADA (BUSR/UNLVLBS)
    Joe Biden (D) 50%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 41%

    This poll was done October 16-23 among 802 likely voters. On top of this, there are absolutely brutal numbers for Republicans in a new poll from Civiqs and Daily Kos for the state of Georgia where Joe Biden, Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock have opened up decent leads in the Presidential and two US Senate races.

    PRESIDENT – GEORGIA (Civiqs/Daily Kos)
    Joe Biden (D) 51%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 46%

    US SENATE – GEORGIA (Civiqs/Daily Kos)
    Jon Ossoff (D) 51%
    David Perdue (R-inc) 45%

    US SENATE – GEORGIA – SPECIAL (Civiqs/Daily Kos)
    Raphael Warnock 48%
    Doug Collins 23%
    Kelly Loeffler 22%
    Matt Lieberman 2%
    Ed Tarver 1%

    US SENATE – GEORGIA SPECIAL RUNOFF (Civiqs/Daily Kos)
    Raphael Warnock (D) 51%
    Kelly Loeffler (D) 37%

    Raphael Warnock (D) 51%
    Doug Collins (D) 42%

    This poll was done October 23-26 among 1041 likely voters. Civiqs and Daily Kos also released polls for Pennsylvania and Mississippi that give the expected results.

    PRESIDENT – PENNSYLVANIA (Civiqs/Daily Kos)
    Joe Biden (D) 52%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 45%

    PRESIDENT – MISSISSIPPI (Civiqs/Daily Kos)
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 55%
    Joe Biden (D) 41%

    US SENATE – MISSISSIPPI (Civiqs/Daily Kos)
    Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-inc) 52%
    Mike Espy (D) 44%

    These polls were also both done October 23-26 among 1145 likely voters in PA and 507 likely voters in MS. The only bright spot so far this morning for Trump supporters may be this new poll from Florida Atlantic University for the state of Florida that has Trump only down 2%.

    PRESIDENT – FLORIDA (FAU)
    Joe Biden (D) 50%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 48%

    This poll was done October 24-25 among 937 likely voters.

    Posted by Dave at 8:51 am
    Filed under: General | Comments (94) | Display Comments On Separate Page

    October 26, 2020

    Trump Leads Biden in PA, Trump Leads Two Polls in TX, Biden Leads One Poll in TX

    The big poll this afternoon comes form Insider Advantage paid for by Center for American Greatness shows Donald Trump opening up a small lead over Joe Biden in the state of Pennsylvania.

    PRESIDENT – PENNSYLVANIA (IA)
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 48%
    Joe Biden (D) 46%

    The lead is actually 2.9%, although rounding makes it show up as only a 2% lead. This poll was done October 25th among 400 likely voters. meanwhile we have, count them, three new polls for the state of Texas. One comes from Data for Progress, one comes from Siena College and The New York Times. And the final one comes from YouGov and the University of Houston.

    PRESIDENT – TEXAS (DFP)
    Joe Biden (D) 49%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 48%

    PRESIDENT – TEXAS (Siena/NYT)
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 47%
    Joe Biden (D) 43%

    PRESIDENT – TEXAS (YouGov/UH)
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 50%
    Joe Biden (D) 45%

    The DFP poll was done October 22-25. the Siena/NYT poll was done October 20-25, and the YouGov poll was done October 13-20, all among likely voters.

    Biden/Ossoff Slightly Ahead in GA

    Well it looks like a lot of people, including yours truly, were duped by someone posting numbers purported to be from The Trafalgar Group yesterday. While the North Carolina poll was legit, the polls from Florida, Michigan and Arizona turned out not to be and the chief pollster of Trafalgar Group posted this tweet yesterday. I always do try to find the original source of polls first by going to the actual pollster website. Next step is to get it from the news organization or political organization that sponsored the polls. Last resort is a news article referencing the poll if the first two can’t found. In this case I relied on the more mainstream poll aggregator sites that I normally trust that they already vetted this poll since they have the resources. Interestingly they were questioning it themselves from the beginning and it was not until later in the day they concluded it was not legitimate and removed it themselves. For me, I should have waited until it showed up somewhere in my first three choices of locations. I am sure it won’t be the last time someone posts something fake and fools a lot of people including me, but I try to be more careful myself.

    This morning, we have a new poll from the University of Georgia for the Atlanta Journal Constitution that has Joe Biden and Jon Ossoff both up by a single percentage point in the state of Georgia.

    PRESIDENT – GEORGIA (AJC/UGA)
    Joe Biden (D) 47%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 46%

    US SENATE – GEORGIA (AJC/UGA)
    Jon Ossoff (D) 46%
    David Perdue (R-inc) 45%

    This poll was done October 14-23 among 1145 likely voters.

    October 25, 2020

    Biden Leads Trump By 13% in MI, Two Polls Show DIfferent Leader in NC

    Well after we got those numbers form Trafalgar Group for Michigan claiming Trump was ahead by 2%, we get a new poll from Gravis Marketing for the state of Michigan done on the exact same day as the Trafalgar Group poll (October 24th) that shows Joe Biden leading in Michigan by double digits.

    PRESIDENT – MICHIGAN (Gravis)
    Joe Biden (D) 55%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 42%

    US SENATE – MICHIGAN (Gravis)
    Gary Peters (D-inc) 52%
    John James (R) 41%

    This poll was done October 24th among 679 likely voters. So we literally had two polls done on the same day in the same state, one has Trump ahead by 2% and one has Biden ahead by 13%. The great news is in about nine days, we will see which polling organizations know what is actually happening.

    Meanwhile CBS News and YouGov gave us new numbers for the states of North Carolina, GeorgiaGeorgiaGeorgia and Florida.

    PRESIDENT – NORTH CAROLINA (YouGov/CBS News)
    Joe Biden (D) 51%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 47%

    PRESIDENT – FLORIDA (YouGov/CBS News)
    Joe Biden (D) 50%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 48%

    PRESIDENT – GEORGIA (YouGov/CBS News)
    Joe Biden (D) 49%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 49%

    US SENATE – NORTH CAROLINA (YouGov/CBS News)
    Cal Cunningham (D) 49%
    Thom Tillis (R-inc) 43%

    US SENATE – GEORGIA (YouGov/CBS News)
    David Perdue (R-inc) 47%
    Jon Ossoff (D) 46%

    These polls were done October 20-23 among likely voters in each state. Meanwhile, Trafalgar Group came back again this morning with a new poll for the state of North Carolina themselves that was done before the debate and it has, surprise, Trump ahead.

    PRESIDENT – NORTH CAROLINA (Trafalgar)
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 49%
    Joe Biden (D) 46%

    This poll was done October 20-22 among 1098 likely voters.

    Biden Leads Trump in TX BY 3%, Trump Leads Biden By 2% in MI

    We are now less than ten days from Election Day and the polling numbers continue to confound. We will start this morning with new polls that claim at the same time, Joe Biden is ahead of Donald Trump in the state of Texas by 3% (according to the University of Texas at Tyler) and Trump is ahead of Biden in Michigan by 2% (according to the Trafalgar Group. Trafalgar Group continues to give the most pro-Trump numbers by showing Trump ahead in both Florida and Arizona as well.

    PRESIDENT – TEXAS (UTT)
    Joe Biden (D) 48%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 45%

    PRESIDENT – MICHIGAN (Trafalgar)
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 49%
    Joe Biden (D) 47%

    PRESIDENT – ARIZONA (Trafalgar)
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 50%
    Joe Biden (D) 47%

    PRESIDENT – FLORIDA (Trafalgar)
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 49%
    Joe Biden (D) 47%

    The Trafalgar Group is basically going all in with a Trump Electoral College win at this point. The TX poll was done October 13-20 among 925 likely voters. The Trafalgar polls were all done October 24th among likely voters.

    UPDATE 10/26 – It turns out the Trafalgar polls were faked by someone. Removing now for the record.

    October 24, 2020

    Biden Leads Trump By 7% in PA and 11% in WI

    A rather sparse day of polling considering this is the penultimate weekend of the election cycle. Two new polls came out from Gravis Marketing today for the states of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin showing Donald Trump well behind in both states he won in 2016.

    PRESIDENT – PENNSYLVANIA (Gravis)
    Joe Biden (D) 51%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 44%

    PRESIDENT – WISCONSIN (Gravis)
    Joe Biden (D) 54%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 43%

    Both polls were done October 23rd among likely voters in each state. One wonders whether we will see a large poll dump for the Sunday morning shows tomorrow.

    October 23, 2020

    One Poll Shows Trump Leads Biden By 3% in FL, Another Shows Biden Leads Trump By 2% in FL

    We two new polls today for the state Florida that give opposing results. Rasmussen Reports shows Donald Trump with a 3% lead over Joe Biden while St. Pete Polls goes in the other direction and has Biden up by 2%.

    PRESIDENT – FLORIDA (Rasmussen)
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 49%
    Joe Biden (D) 46%

    PRESIDENT – FLORIDA (St Pete Polls)
    Joe Biden (D) 49%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 47%

    The Rasmussen poll was done October 20-21 among 800 likely voters. The St Pete Polls poll was done October 21-22 among 2527 likely voters.

    October 22, 2020

    Two Polls In MI Show Different Leaders for Prez and US Senate, Trump Leads Biden in NC By 1%

    A lot of polls today as will be the norm until Election Day. In Michigan, we have conflicting numbers from Trafalgar Group and Public Policy Polling in the state of Michigan.

    PRESIDENT – MICHIGAN (Trafalgar)
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 47%
    Joe Biden (D) 45%

    US SENATE – MICHIGAN (Trafalgar)
    John James (R) 50%
    Gary Peters (D-inc) 48%

    PRESIDENT – MICHIGAN (PPP)
    Joe Biden (D) 50%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 43%

    US SENATE – MICHIGAN (PPP)
    Gary Peters (D-inc) 52%
    John James (R) 43%

    The Trafalgar Group poll was done October 15-18 among 1034 likely voters. The PPP poll was done October 21-22 among 804 voters. Meanwhile, Rasmussen Reports has a poll for the state of North Carolina that shows Donald Trump taking a single-percentage-point lead on Joe Biden.

    PRESIDENT – NORTH CAROLINA (Rasmussen)
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 48%
    Joe Biden (D) 47%

    This poll was done October 20-21 among 800 likely voters.

    October 21, 2020

    Marshall/Bollier Tied in KS, Two Additional Polls in IA

    It has been a busy day for polls from Iowa and Kansas today as after I posted the numbers this morning. In Iowa, we also received polls from Emerson College and Siena College/NY Times.

    PRESDIENT – IOWA (Emerson College)
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 48%
    Joe Biden (D) 48%

    PRESDIENT – IOWA (Siena College/NYT)
    Joe Biden (D) 46%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 43%

    US SENATE – IOWA (Emerson College)
    Joni Ernst (R-inc) 51%
    Theresa Greenfield (D) 46%

    US SENATE – IOWA (Siena College/NYT)
    Joni Ernst (R-inc) 45%
    Theresa Greenfield (D) 44%

    The Emerson poll was done October 19-21 among likely voters. The Siena College poll was done October 15-19 among likely voters. Meanwhile, Public Policy Polling has a new poll out of Kansas showing a much closer US Senate race than the poll earlier today.

    US SENATE – KANSAS (PPP)
    Barbara Bollier (D) 43%
    Roger Marshall (R) 43%

    This poll was done October 19-20 among 897 voters.

    Biden Leads Trump Among Likely Voters in IA, Marshall Leads Bollier By 12% in KS

    A new poll from Monmouth University provides an interesting contrast between registered voters and likely voters where Donald Trump leads a poll of all registered voters, but when reduced down to likely votes, Joe Biden holds a small lead.

    PRESIDENT – IOWA (Monmouth – Registered Voters)
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 48%
    Joe Biden (D) 47%

    PRESIDENT – IOWA (Monmouth – High Turnout Likely Voters)
    Joe Biden (D) 50%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 47%

    PRESIDENT – IOWA (Monmouth – Low Turnout Likely Voters)
    Joe Biden (D) 51%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 46%

    This poll was done October 15-19 among 501 voters. We have new polls from Civiqs and Daily Kos for the states of Minnesota, Florida and Nevada.

    PRESIDENT – MINNESOTA (Civiqs/DK)
    Joe Biden (D) 53%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 43%

    PRESIDENT – FLORIDA (Civiqs/DK)
    Joe Biden (D) 51%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 47%

    PRESIDENT – NEVADA (Civiqs/DK)
    Joe Biden (D) 52%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 43%

    These polls were done October 17-20 among likely voters. Good news for Republicans in Kansas as the US Senate seat is looking a little more safe than some other recent polling showed according to a new poll from co/efficient.

    US SENATE – KANSAS (co/efficient)
    Roger Marshall (R) 51%
    Barbara Bollier (D) 39%

    This poll was done October 18-20 among 2453 likely voters.