August 14, 2022

    Abbott Leads O’Rourke By 6% in TX

    We had a new poll today that shows Greg Abbott may be able to avoid the disaster the Republican Party is running into at the US Senate level as he maintains a lead over Democrat Beto O’Rourke according to the new poll from the University of Texas at Tyler and The Dallas Morning News.

    Greg Abbott (R-inc) 48%
    Beto O’Rourke (D) 42%

    This poll was done August 1-7 among 1215 likely voters.

    Posted by Dave at 7:30 pm
    Filed under: General | Comments (74) | Display Comments On Separate Page

    August 5, 2022

    Oz and Vance Both Trail By Double Digits in PA and OH

    I really wish we would get a new poll for my home state of Maryland to see how badly Donald Trump’s chosen GOP candidate for Governor is losing but for now we will see how badly his chosen GOP candidates for the US Senate are doing in Ohio and Pennsylvania with new polls from Center Street PAC.

    John Fetterman (D) 52%
    Mehmet Oz (R) 38%

    US SENATE – OHIO (Momentive/SM)
    Tim Ryan (D) 49%
    JD Vance (R) 38%

    The PA poll was done July 29-August 1 and the OH poll was done August 1-3, both among likely voters. Republicans are trailing in two states they currently hold US Senate seats in by double digits and they expect to retake control of the US Senate this election cycle?

    July 27, 2022

    Trump’s Chosen Candidates Trail in GA and PA

    We have two new polls for the state of Georgia that show similar results where the voters in Georgia seem happy to keep Republican Brian Kemp (not endorsed by Trump) as Governor but would have a Democrat as US Senator instead of Herschel Walker (endorsed by Trump). The two polls come from Survey USA and the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

    Brian Kemp (R-inc) 45%
    Stacey Abrams (D) 44%

    Raphael Warnock (D-inc) 48%
    Herschel Walker (R) 39%

    Brian Kemp (R-inc) 48%
    Stacey Abrams (D) 43%

    Raphael Warnock (D-inc) 46%
    Herschel Walker (R) 43%

    The Survey USA poll was done July 21-24 among 604 likely voters. The AJC poll was done July 14-22 among 902 likely voters. Meanwhile in Pennsylvania in a new poll from Blueprint Polling, both of Trump’s endorsed candidates are trailing badly providing Democrats with a golden pickup opportunity at least in the US Senate.

    US SENATE – PENNSYLVANIA (Blueprint Polling)
    John Fetterman (D) 49%
    Mehmet Oz (R) 40%

    GOVERNOR – PENNSYLVANIA (Blueprint Polling)
    Josh Shapiro (D) 51%
    Doug Mastriano (R) 39%

    This poll was done July 19-21 among 712 likely voters.

    July 16, 2022

    Cheney Down By 22% in Primary Race in Wyoming

    If a new poll from the Caspar Star-Tribune and Mason-Dixon is to be believe, Liz Cheney is going to lose her bid for the nomination for re-election by the Republicans.

    US HOUSE – WY-AL – GOP PRIMARY (Mason-Dixon)
    Harriet Hageman 52%
    Liz Cheney (inc) 30%
    Anthony Bouchard 5%
    Robyn Belinskey 1%
    Denton Knapp 1%

    This poll was done July 7-11 among 1100 likely primary voters.

    July 14, 2022

    Kemp Leads Abrams By 7%, Warnock Leads Walker By 3% in GA

    So we received a call to our home last night from Public Policy Polling who is apparently doing a poll on the gubernatorial race for Maryland. Not sure if it will be public or not, but if so, usually PPP releases them a few days after the polls are complete.

    Meanwhile in Georgia, we have a new poll from Fabrizio Ward & Impact Research that shows voters might be splitting their tickets, giving Republican Brian Kemp a healthy lead over Stacey Abrams while in turn putting Raphael Warnock up on Trump-endorsed Herschel Walker.

    Brian Kemp (R-inc) 52%
    Stacey Abrams (D) 45%

    Raphael Warnock (D-inc) 50%
    Herschel Walker (R) 47%

    This poll was done July 5-11 among 1197 likely voters.

    July 9, 2022

    Walker Leads Warnock By 2%, Kemp Leads Abrams By 9% in GA

    The polls out of Ohio that I posted this morning showed Democrats in position to pick up a US Senate seat in Ohio. Meanwhile, a new poll from Data for Progress shows the opposite happening in the state of Georgia where Trump-endorsed Republican Herschel Walker holds a 2% lead over Democrat Raphael Warnock.

    Herschel Walker (R) 49%
    Raphael Warnock (D-inc) 47%

    Brian Kemp (R-inc) 53%
    Stacey Abrams (D) 44%

    This poll was done July 1-6 among 1131 likely voters.

    Ryan Leads Vance in Two Polls in OH

    We have two new polls for the US Senate race in Ohio showing Republicans are in danger of dropping the seat currently occupied by Rob Portman to the Democrats as the Trump-endorsed candidate JD Vance trails Democrat Tim Ryan by margins of 2% and 9%. The two polls come from Impact Research (paid for by the Tim Ryan campaign) and the left-leaning Center Street PAC.

    US SENATE- OHIO (Impact Research)
    Tim Ryan (D) 48%
    JD Vance (R) 46%

    US SENATE – OHIO (Center Street PAC)
    Tim Ryan (D) 49%
    JD Vance (R) 40%

    The Impact Research poll was done June 27-30 among 816 likely voters while the Center Street PAC poll was done July 3rd among likely voters. There has been no polls from either the Vance campaign or right-leaning groups of late to counter these two polls.

    Posted by Dave at 8:49 am
    Filed under: General | Comments (76) | Display Comments On Separate Page

    July 2, 2022

    Trump Leads Biden By 5% Nationally

    Despite the January 6th hearings and all the bad press Donald Trump has been getting lately, we have a new poll from Emerson College yesterday that shows he would still defeat Joe Biden in a 2024 rematch.

    Donald Trump (R) 44%
    Joe Biden (D-inc) 39%

    IN the primary race, the poll did not seem to include many names, but the bottom line is Republicans seem to still want Donald Trump to be the face of their party.

    Donald Trump 55%
    Ron DeSantis 20%
    Mike Pence 9%
    Nikki Haley 3%
    Mike Pompeo 1%

    This poll was done June 28-29 among 1271 registered voters.

    June 29, 2022

    Warnock Leads Walker By Double Digits, Kemp/Abrams Tied in GA

    A new poll from Quinnipiac University shows Trump-endorsed Herschel Walker now trailing the sitting incumbent Democratic US Senator Raphael Warnock by double digits in the state of Georgia.

    US SENATE – GEORGIA (Quinnipiac)
    Raphael Warnock (D-inc) 54%
    Herschel Walker (R) 44%

    I think Republicans are going to look back on this rac ein November as one hell of a wasted opportunity to pick up a US Senate seat, especially if they manage to fall one seat short again of getting a majority. Meanwhile at the gubernatorial level, despite Warnock’s dominating lead in the US Senate race, his fellow Democrat Stacey Abrams can only manage to get into a tie with Republican Brian Kemp.

    GOVERNOR – GEORGIA (Quinnipiac)
    Brian Kemp (R-inc) 48%
    Stacey Abrams (D) 48%

    This poll was done June 23-27 among 1497 registered voters.

    June 28, 2022

    Cox Leads Schulz in MD GOP Primary for Governor

    Republicans in Maryland have apparently decided winning a grand total of three statewide races for any office in Maryland (Ehrlich in 2002 and Hogan in 2014 and 2018) in over forty years is enough for them and may be deciding to make Trump-endorsed Dan Cox their nominee for Governor this year. The latest primary numbers from Goucher College.

    Dan Cox 25%
    Kelly Schulz 22%
    Joe Werner 3%
    Robin Ficker 2%

    Meanwhile on the Democratic side, a three-way battle is happening at the top of the race. I am not surprised by Peter Franchot and Wes Moore being there as they seem to have complete control of the airwaves and I see both of their signs everywhere driving around, they clearly have people expressing their support. Tom Perez surprises me a little as I never see commercials for him and can’t think of a single sign I have ever seen with his name on it.

    Peter Franchot 16%
    Wes Moore 14%
    Tom Perez 14%
    Doug Gansler 5%
    John King 4%
    Jon Baron 2%
    Ashwani Jain 2%
    Ralph Jaffe >1%
    Jerome Segal >1%

    This poll was done June 15-19 among 501 Democratic and 508 Republican primary voters.