July 2, 2022

    Trump Leads Biden By 5% Nationally

    Despite the January 6th hearings and all the bad press Donald Trump has been getting lately, we have a new poll from Emerson College yesterday that shows he would still defeat Joe Biden in a 2024 rematch.

    Donald Trump (R) 44%
    Joe Biden (D-inc) 39%

    IN the primary race, the poll did not seem to include many names, but the bottom line is Republicans seem to still want Donald Trump to be the face of their party.

    Donald Trump 55%
    Ron DeSantis 20%
    Mike Pence 9%
    Nikki Haley 3%
    Mike Pompeo 1%

    This poll was done June 28-29 among 1271 registered voters.

    June 29, 2022

    Warnock Leads Walker By Double Digits, Kemp/Abrams Tied in GA

    A new poll from Quinnipiac University shows Trump-endorsed Herschel Walker now trailing the sitting incumbent Democratic US Senator Raphael Warnock by double digits in the state of Georgia.

    US SENATE – GEORGIA (Quinnipiac)
    Raphael Warnock (D-inc) 54%
    Herschel Walker (R) 44%

    I think Republicans are going to look back on this rac ein November as one hell of a wasted opportunity to pick up a US Senate seat, especially if they manage to fall one seat short again of getting a majority. Meanwhile at the gubernatorial level, despite Warnock’s dominating lead in the US Senate race, his fellow Democrat Stacey Abrams can only manage to get into a tie with Republican Brian Kemp.

    GOVERNOR – GEORGIA (Quinnipiac)
    Brian Kemp (R-inc) 48%
    Stacey Abrams (D) 48%

    This poll was done June 23-27 among 1497 registered voters.

    June 28, 2022

    Cox Leads Schulz in MD GOP Primary for Governor

    Republicans in Maryland have apparently decided winning a grand total of three statewide races for any office in Maryland (Ehrlich in 2002 and Hogan in 2014 and 2018) in over forty years is enough for them and may be deciding to make Trump-endorsed Dan Cox their nominee for Governor this year. The latest primary numbers from Goucher College.

    Dan Cox 25%
    Kelly Schulz 22%
    Joe Werner 3%
    Robin Ficker 2%

    Meanwhile on the Democratic side, a three-way battle is happening at the top of the race. I am not surprised by Peter Franchot and Wes Moore being there as they seem to have complete control of the airwaves and I see both of their signs everywhere driving around, they clearly have people expressing their support. Tom Perez surprises me a little as I never see commercials for him and can’t think of a single sign I have ever seen with his name on it.

    Peter Franchot 16%
    Wes Moore 14%
    Tom Perez 14%
    Doug Gansler 5%
    John King 4%
    Jon Baron 2%
    Ashwani Jain 2%
    Ralph Jaffe >1%
    Jerome Segal >1%

    This poll was done June 15-19 among 501 Democratic and 508 Republican primary voters.

    June 15, 2022

    Trump Endorsed Candidates Trail General Election Races in NC and PA

    Two US Senate seats currently held by retiring Republicans could be flipping to the Democrats in November if polls from Suffolk University and Survey USA are to be believed. First in North Carolina, a new poll from Survey USA has Democrat Cheri Beasley holding a 4% edge over Republican Ted Budd.

    Cheri Beasley (D) 44%
    Ted Budd (R) 40%

    This poll was done June 8-12 among 1100 voters. Donald Trump had endorsed Budd in the North Carolina primary. Meanwhilein Pennsylvania, a new poll from Suffolk University has Democrat John Fetterman holding a 9% lead over Mehmet Oz.

    John Fetterman (D) 46%
    Mehmet Oz (R) 37%

    Josh Shapiro (D) 44%
    Doug Mastriano (R) 40%

    This poll was done June 10-13 among 500 likely voters. Similarly to NC, both Oz and Mastriano were endorsed by Trump in the Republican primaries.

    June 14, 2022

    Kemp Leads Abrams By 5%, Warnock/Walker Tied in GA, Abbott Dominating O’Rourke By 19% in TX

    Beto O’Rourke received a lot of kudos from the liberal-leaning media when he interrupted a press conference being held by Texas Governor Greg Abbott in the wake of the shooting in Uvalde, but it appears this may have backfired on his electoral chances according to a new poll from Blueprint Polling that has Gregg Abbott dominating O’Rourke by 19%.

    GOVERNOR – TEXAS (Blueprint Polling)
    Greg Abbott (R-inc) 56%
    Beto O’Rourke (D) 37%

    This poll was done June 8-10 among 603 registered voters. Unless someone can find one with a larger lead for Abbott over O’Rourke that I am unaware of, this is the largest lead Abbott has ever had over O’Rourke this election cycle. Meanwhile in Georgia we have a new poll (finally!) from East Carolina University that shows Brian Kemp with a 5% edge on Stacey Abrams while Raphael Warnock and Herschel walker are deadlocked.

    Brian Kemp (R-inc) 50%
    Stacey Abrams (D) 45%

    Herschel Walker (R) 46%
    Raphael Warnock (D-inc) 46%

    This poll was done June 6-9 among 868 registered voters.

    June 12, 2022

    Ryan Leads Vance By 3% in OH

    I am surprised by the seeming lack of polling of probably the three high-profile US Senate races this year since the primaries ended for the states of Georgia, Ohio and Pennsylvania. As far as I can tell, we have not seen a single new public poll for GA and PA since their primary races were decided and we have only received this new Democratic Party-leaning poll from Innovation Ohio (done by GrowProgress) for the state of Ohio that shows Tim Ryan with a small lead over Trump-endorsed Republican JD Vance.

    US SENATE – OHIO (GrowProgress/Innovation Ohio)
    Tim Ryan (D) 44%
    JD Vance (R) 41%

    If Ryan were to win this race, this would be a pick up for Democrats. This poll was done May 30-June 3 among 2018 registered voters.

    June 5, 2022

    Schulz and Franchot Lead MD Gov Primaries

    It’s always nice to get a new poll for my home state and we have a new primary poll for the gubernatorial race in Maryland to replace the immensely popular outgoing Governor Larry Hogan from The Baltimore Sun and University of Baltimore. On the Republican side, Larry Hogan’s cabinet member Kelly Schulz holds only a disturbingly small single-digit lead over the Donald Trump-endorsed Daniel Cox.

    Kelly Schulz 27%
    Daniel Cox 21%
    Robin Ficker 5%
    Joseph Werner 4%

    Putting popular Larry Hogan aside, Republicans in Maryland are barely a blip statewide and the thought that there is actually a change of them making Daniel Cox the new face of their party is mind-boggling to me. But the Maryland Republican Party has only won three statewide races (Ehrlich once and Hogan twice) at any level of Governments since the state went for George HW Bush on 1988 so in a way it does make sense. They would rather be loud and obnoxious than actually win an election. ON the Democratic side, it appears Democrats are leaning towards the obvious safe choice in Peter Franchot.

    Peter Franchot 20%
    Wes Moore 15%
    Tom Perez 12%
    Rushern Baker 7%
    Doug Gansler 4%
    John King 4%

    I must say at least in my area, Wes Moore seems to have the most visible presence from the number of signs and commercials that I come across. I rarely see anything from Franchot or Perez. Baker’s entire campaign seems to be that he will “move to Baltimore and stop crime” somehow. This poll was done May 27-June 2 among 428 likely GOP primary voters and 562 likely Democratic primary voters.

    May 26, 2022

    Budd Leads Beasley In Two New Polls in NC

    In the wake of last week’s primary election in North Carolina, we have two new General Election polls for the US Senate where Republicans are hoping to retain this seat and right now, Republican Ted Budd holds a lead over Democrat Cheri Beasley. The polls come from Cygnal and East Carolina University.

    Ted Budd (R) 47%
    Cheri Beasley (D) 39%

    Ted Budd (R) 44%
    Cheri Beasley (D) 42%

    The ECU poll was done May 19-20 among 635 registered voters while the Cygnal poll was done May 21-22 among 600 likely voters.

    May 23, 2022

    Two New GA Primary Polls Has Kemp Leading By 14% and 30%

    Compared to the recent poll from Fox News, the local Fox affiliate Fox5 and Insider Advantage would have you believe David Perdue is surging against Brian Kemp although Kemp manages to stay about the important 50% threshold to avoid a runoff.

    Brian Kemp 52%
    David Perdue 38%
    Kandiss Taylor 6%
    Catherine Davis 1%

    This poll was done May 20-21 among 750 likely voters. That being said, RealClearPolitics is reporting a new poll from Landmark Communications which is more in line with the Fox News Poll and has Kemp reaching 60%.

    Brian Kemp 60%
    David Perdue 30%
    Kandiss Taylor 5%
    Catherine Davis 1%

    This poll was done May 22nd among 500 likely voters.

    May 19, 2022

    Kemp Dominating Perdue in GA, Walker Cruising to Nomination

    Fox News has a new poll out that shows while Donald Trump’s choice for the Republican nomination in Georgia is cruising to the being picked by the voters, his choice for Governor, David Perdue, is getting absolutely crushed.

    Brian Kemp 60%
    David Perdue 28%
    Kandiss Taylor 6%
    Catherine Davis 1%

    Herschel Walker 66%
    Gary Black 8%
    Latham Saddler 5%
    Kelvin King 3%
    Josh Clark 2%
    Jonathan McColumn 1%

    These polls were done May 12-16 among 1004 primary voters.