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    October 27, 2022

    Walker Leads Warnock By 3% in GA

    Time for a clean thread and it comes in the form of a new poll from co/efficient that claims Herschel Walker is up by 3% on Raphael Warnock in the state of Georgia.

    US SENATE – GEORGIA (co/efficient)
    Herschel Walker (R) 47%
    Raphael Warnock (D-inc) 44%

    This poll was done October 24-25 among 946 likely voters.

    October 22, 2022

    Laxalt Leads Three New Polls in NV

    Time for a new post and we will focus on the state of Nevada where Republican Adam Laxalt appears to be the best chance (even moreso than the surging Herschel Walker) of picking up a US Senate seat for Republicans. Here are the latest numbers from Rasmussen Reports, WPA Intelligence, and CBS News/YouGov.

    US SENATE -NEVADA (Rasmussen Reports)
    Adam Laxalt (R) 48%
    Catherine Cortez-Masto (D-inc) 43%

    US SENATE -NEVADA (WPA Intelligence)
    Adam Laxalt (R) 45%
    Catherine Cortez-Masto (D-inc) 43%

    US SENATE -NEVADA (CBS News/YouGov)
    Adam Laxalt (R) 49%
    Catherine Cortez-Masto (D-inc) 48%

    The Rasmussen Reports poll was done October 13-17 among 707 likely voters. The WPA Intelligence poll was done October 16-18 among 500 likely voters. The CBS Nes/YouGov poll was done October 14-19 among 1057 likely voters.

    October 12, 2022

    Warnock Leads Walker/Kemp Leads Abrams in Three Different Polls in GA

    Figuring out what to believe in Georgia just depends on which polling organization you want to believe. We have three new polls so far this week . We’ll start with the most favorable numbers for Republicans and the poll from The Trafalgar Group that has Raphael Warnock up by only a single-percentage point while Brian Kemp is up by 9%.

    US SENATE – GEORGIA (Trafalgar)
    Raphael Warnock (D-inc) 46%
    Herschel Walker (R) 45%

    GOVERNOR – GEORGIA (Trafalgar)
    Brian Kemp (R-inc) 53%
    Stacey Abrams (D) 44%

    This poll was done October 8-11 among 1084 likely voters. Meanwhile in the middle, the University of Georgia came out today with actually a rather stale poll considering how long ago it was showing a 3% lead for Warnock but have Kemp up by 10%.

    US SENATE – GEORGIA (UGA)
    Raphael Warnock (D-inc) 46%
    Herschel Walker (R) 43%

    GOVERNOR – GEORGIA (UGA)
    Brian Kemp (R-inc) 51%
    Stacey Abrams (D) 41%

    This poll was done September 25-October 4 among 1030 likely voters. Finally, Quinnipiac University has the US Senate race at a much wider margin while showing the gubernatorial race at a single percentage point.

    US SENATE – GEORGIA (Quinnipiac)
    Raphael Warnock (D-inc) 52%
    Herschel Walker (R) 45%

    GOVERNOR – GEORGIA (Quinnipiac)
    Brian Kemp (R-inc) 50%
    Stacey Abrams (D) 49%

    This poll was done October 7-10 among 1157 likely voters. The only consistent thing is there is clearly a not-small group of voters telling pollsters they will vote for Brian Kemp and Raphael Warnock this November.

    October 5, 2022

    Walker Trails By Double Digits in GA, Vance Trails By Double Digits in OH

    Just brutal poll numbers for Republicans hoping to pick up the US Senate seat in Georgia from Survey USA where their latest poll is showing Raphael Warnock now up by double digits over Herschel Walker.

    US SENATE – GEORGIA (Survey USA)
    Raphael Warnock (D-inc) 50%
    Herschel Walker (R) 38%

    GOVERNOR – GEORGIA (Survey USA)
    Brian Kemp (R-inc) 47%
    Stacey Abrams (D) 45%

    This poll was done September 30-October 4 among 1076 likely voters. Interesting to note the poll was done mostly before the latest revelations about Walker. Meanwhile in Ohio, a new poll from Center Street PAC shows Republicans on the verge of losing the US Senate there as Democrat Tim Ryan has opened up a double-digit lead over another Trump endorsed candidate, JD Vance.

    US SENATE – OHIO (CSP)
    Tim Ryan (D) 49%
    JD Vance (R) 38%

    This poll was done October 2-3 among 528 likely voters.

    October 1, 2022

    Wes Moore More Than Doubles Dan Cox in Latest Poll in MD

    The unmitigated coming disaster for Maryland Republicans’ choice for Governor continues unabated as a new poll has their choice (and Donald-Trump endorsed) Dan Cox getting absolutely crushed in the latest poll from The Washington Post.

    GOVERNOR – MARYLAND (WaPo)
    Wes Moore (D) 60%
    Dan Cox (R) 28%

    Among those certain to vote, it is an even worse 64%-27% deficit for the Republicans’ choice for Governor. Meanwhile, the Republican Governor currently in office Larry Hogan holds an incredible 73% job approval rating as he finishes out his term. This poll was done September 22-27 among 810 registered voters.

    But don’t fear Maryland Republicans, I am sure Dan Cox travelling down to Mar-a-Lago for a fundraiser headed by Trump a mere three weeks before the election will change your fortunes….

    September 23, 2022

    Laxalt Leads in Three Polls in NV

    We have not one, not two, but three polls out of Nevada this week that shows Republicans might be in a good position to pick up the US Senate seat in Nevada. They come from Insider Advantage, Trafalgar Group, and Data for Progress.

    US SENATE – NEVADA (Data For Progress)
    Adam Laxalt (R) 47%
    Catherine Cortez Masto (D-inc) 46%

    US SENATE – NEVADA (Trafalgar Group)
    Adam Laxalt (R) 47%
    Catherine Cortez Masto (D-inc) 43%

    US SENATE – NEVADA (Insider Advantage)
    Adam Laxalt (R) 46%
    Catherine Cortez Masto (D-inc) 43%

    The DFP poll was done September 14-19, the Trafalgar poll was done September 17-20 and the IA poll as done September 20, all among likely voters.

    September 20, 2022

    Walker Both Leads Warnock By 2% and Trails Warnock By 5% in Two Separate Polls in GA

    We have two polls out of Georgia this morning that seem to contradict each other on the state of the race for the US Senate but seem to be in line on gubernatorial race. In a poll from the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Herschel Walker holds a slight lead over Raphael Warnock while Brian Kemp is now up by high single digits over Stacey Abrams. Marist College shows a similar high single-digit lead for Kemp over Abrams but shows the opposite result in the US Senate race with Warnock up by 5%.

    US SENATE – GEORGIA (AJC)
    Herschel Walker (R) 46%
    Raphael Warnock (D-inc) 44%

    US SENATE – GEORGIA (Marist)
    Raphael Warnock (D-inc) 47%
    Herschel Walker (R) 42%

    GOVERNOR – GEORGIA (AJC)
    Brian Kemp (R-inc) 50%
    Stacey Abrams (D) 42%

    GOVERNOR – GEORGIA (Marist)
    Brian Kemp (R-inc) 50%
    Stacey Abrams (D) 44%

    The AJC poll was done over a much longer period of time, September 5-16, among 861 likely voters. The Marist College poll was done September 12-15 and is among registered voters, which still using RVs this late in the election cycle seems a little odd and may be why the results are more favorable to the Democrats than the AJC poll.

    September 19, 2022

    Moore Crushing Cox By 22% in MD Gov Race

    Despite their own Governor having a job approval ratings consistently above the 60% level and sometimes even above the 70% level, Republicans in Maryland decided back in July they would rather go with the Donald Trump-backed candidate of Dan Cox instead of Hogan’s preferred choice of Kelly Schulz. even in the heat of the primary, just about everyone outside the Trump/Cox orbit was predicting that it would be a disaster for Maryland Republicans. Now we have a new poll out this morning from Goucher College that shows what a disaster it will be as Democrat Wes Moore holds a 22% lead over Cox.

    GOVERNOR – MARYLAND (Goucher)
    Wes Moore (D) 53%
    Dan Cox (R) 31%

    So instead of going with the electable Kelly Schulz and having an extended at least 12-year run in the Governor’s mansion, the Maryland Republicans will go back into the political obscurity they have lived in just about my entire cognizant life. This poll was done September 8-12 among 748 likely voters.

    September 17, 2022

    Oz Within 2% Of Fetterman in PA, Vance Leads in Two Polls in OH, Another Poll Has Johnson Up in WI

    We have a new poll from the Trafalgar Group that shows both Republican candidates within 2% of their respective Democratic opponents for the open US Senate and Gubernatorial seats in the state of Pennsylvania.

    US SENATE – PENNSYLVANIA (Trafalgar)
    John Fetterman (D) 48%
    Mehmet Oz (R) 46%

    GOVERNOR – PENNSYLVANIA (Trafalgar)
    Josh Shapiro (D) 47%
    Doug Mastriano (D) 45%

    This poll was done September 13-15 among 1078 likely voters. Meanwhile in Ohio, some good polling news for Republican JD Vance as two new polls, one from Emerson College and one from Civiqs, have him in the lead over Democrat Tim Ryan.

    US SENATE – OHIO (Emerson)
    JD Vance (R) 44%
    Tim Ryan (D) 40%

    US SENATE – OHIO (Civiqs)
    JD Vance (R) 48%
    Tim Ryan (D) 45%

    The Emerson poll was done September 10-13 among 1000 likely voters while the Civiqs poll was done September 10-13 among 780 likely voters. Also from Civiqs is a new poll in the state of Wisconsin that shows Republican Ron Johnson above Democrat Mandela Barnes.

    US SENATE – WISCONSIN (Civiqs)
    Ron Johnson (R-inc) 49%
    Mandela Barnes (D) 48%

    This poll was done September 10-13 among 780 likely voters.

    There is a rumor out there that we might be seeing a long-awaited poll for the gubernatorial race in my home state of Maryland on Monday where we will finally see if the Donald Trump-backed Dan Cox has any prayer to keep the Maryland gubernatorial seat in Republican hands after the immensely popular Republican Larry Hogan leaves office or whether Republicans will have managed to hand this seat back to the Democrats with their selection of Cox as their nominee.

    Posted by Dave at 4:50 pm
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    September 14, 2022

    Johnson Surges Into Lead in WI, Walker Trails by 6% to Warnock in GA

    According to a new poll from Marquette Law School, Republican Ron Johnson has completely erased a 7% deficit he was facing in a poll from same organization and now is up by a single percentage point over Democrat Mandela Barnes.

    US SENATE – WISCONSIN (Marquette)
    Ron Johnson (R-inc) 49%
    Mandela Barnes (D) 48%

    This poll was done September 6-11 among 632 likely voters. But while things are looking better for Republicans in Wisconsin, Quinnipiac University gives Republicans some bad news in Georgia as Herschel Walker is down 6% and Brian Kemp’s lead over Stacey Abrams is only 2%.

    US SENATE – GEORGIA (Quinnipiac)
    Raphael Warnock (D-inc) 52%
    Herschel Walker (R) 46%

    GOVERNOR – GEORGIA (Quinnipiac)
    Brian Kemp (R-inc) 50%
    Stacey Abrams (D) 48%

    The goo dnews for Republicans in this poll is at is actually better than the double-digit deficit Quinnipiac showed for Walker in June and more favorable for Kemp than the 48%/48% split the previous Quinnipiac poll showed. This poll was done September 8-12 among 1278 likely voters.