Archive for the ‘General’ Category

Election Night Thread – Virginia

Tuesday, November 2nd, 2021

The polls are closed in Virginia as of 7pm EDT and the vote counting begins….

Two More VA Polls – One Has Youngkin Up By 1% and One has McAuliffe Up By 3%

Monday, November 1st, 2021

Two polls that wrapped up today show a split result with Research Co giving Glenn Youngkin a single-percentage-point lead while Targoz Market Research shows Terry McAuliffe with a 3% edge.

GOVERNOR – VIRGINIA (Research Co)
Glenn Youngkin (R) 49%
Terry McAuliffe (D) 48%

GOVERNOR – VIRGINIA (Targoz MR)
Terry McAuliffe (D) 50%
Glenn Youngkin (R) 47%

The positive side for Youngkin is when viewing these two polls, the Research Co poll started yesterday while the Targoz MR poll goes back to last Tuesday as a starting date. The Research CO poll was done October 31 – November 1 among 450 likely voters while the Targoz MR poll was done October 26-November 1 among 747 likely voters. If you believe the late movement is towards Youngkin, then the Research Co is likely more accurate.

Youngkin Leads By 2% in Two New VA Polls

Monday, November 1st, 2021

Two new polls out today for the race in Virginia and both have Republican Glenn Youngkin ahead of Terry McAuliffe as we head into Election Day tomorrow.
The polls come from Insider Advantage and The Trafalgar Group.

GOVERNOR – VIRGINIA (Trafalgar)
Glenn Youngkin (R) 49%
Terry McAuliffe (D) 47%

GOVERNOR – VIRGINIA (IA)
Glenn Youngkin (R) 47%
Terry McAuliffe (D) 45%

The Insider Advantage poll was done October 27-30 and the Trafalgar poll was done October 29-31, both among likely voters.

Youngkin Leads By 3% in VA

Saturday, October 30th, 2021

The momentum appears to clearly be with Glenn Youngkin in Virginia as we have a new poll from Echelon Insights that shows Glenn Youngkin ahead of Terry McAuliffe by 3% in a poll completed just yesterday.

GOVERNOR – VIRGINIA (Echelon)
Glenn Youngkin (R) 49%
Terry McAuliffe (D) 46%

This poll was done October 27-29 among 611 likely voters.

McAuliffe Leads By 1% in VA

Friday, October 29th, 2021

The Washington Post and George Mason University do not agree with the numbers we saw yesterday from Fox News and claim the race is still within the margin of error with Terry McAuliffe up by a single-percentage point.

GOVERNOR – VIRGINIA (WaPo/GMU)
Terry McAuliffe (D) 49%
Glenn Youngkin (R) 48%

This poll was done October 20-26 among 918 likely voters.

Youngkin Surges Ahead in VA By 8%

Thursday, October 28th, 2021

A poll that is almost impossible to believe but seems to have set the political world on fire. Fox News has released a new poll for the gubernatorial race in Virginia that shows Glenn Youngkin surging ahead of Terry McAuliffe by an almost hard-to-believe 8%.

GOVERNOR – VIRGINIA (Fox News)
Glenn Youngkin (R) 53%
Terry McAuliffe (D) 45%

This poll was done October 24-27 among 1015 likely voters.

Two Polls Show Tied Race, Another Poll Shows Youngkin With 2% Lead in VA

Monday, October 25th, 2021

Tomorrow we will be one week away away from the big election in Virginia and three new polls out yesterday and today show the race continuing to trend towards Republican Glenn Youngkin as he is tied in two polls (Emerson College and Cygnal) with Democrat Terry McAuliffe and ahead in a poll put out by Kellyanne Conway.

GOVERNOR – VIRGINIA (Emerson)
Terry McAuliffe (D) 48%
Glenn Youngkin (R) 48%

GOVERNOR – VIRGINIA (Cygnal)
Terry McAuliffe (D) 48%
Glenn Youngkin (R) 48%

GOVERNOR – VIRGINIA (KAConsulting)
Glenn Youngkin (R) 43%
Terry McAuliffe (D) 41%

The Emerson College poll was done October 22-23, the Cygnal poll was done October 19-21, and the KAConsulting Poll was done October 18-21. All the polls were done among likely voters.

Gov Race in VA Tied, Murphy Leads Ciattarelli By 6% in NJ

Friday, October 22nd, 2021

Its been ten days since my last post so to get a new thread going, here are the two most recent polls for the gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey from Monmouth University and Emerson College respectively.

GOVERNOR – VIRGINIA (Monmouth)
Terry McAuliffe (D) 46%
Glenn Youngkin (R) 46%

GOVERNOR – NEW JERSEY (Emerson)
Phil Murphy (D-inc) 50%
Jack Ciattarelli (R) 44%

The VA poll was done October 16-19 among 1005 registered voters. The NJ poll was done October 15-18 among 600 likely voters.

McAuliffe Leads Youngkin By 3% in VA

Tuesday, October 12th, 2021

We have a new poll from CBS News and YouGov showing Terry McAuliffe with a 3% lead over Glenn Youngkin as we are now three weeks away from Election Day.

GOVERNOR – VIRGINIA (CBS News/YouGov)
Terry McAuliffe (D) 50%
Glenn Youngkin (R) 47%

I used ot subscribe to the theory in the early days of early voting that it didn’t matter who had a perceived advantage in early voting since it was usually a small percentage and it wouldn’t change the overall vote total enough to make much of a difference. but with early voting almost becoming as popular (or even more popular) than Election Day voting and the fact that early voting is not going away, Republicans are going to have figure out a way to get their voters to also vote early in the same percentage numbers as Democrats. Every early vote that occurs is one less vote a party has to chase to get to the polls on Election Day. This poll shows among people who have already voted, McAuliffe is already ahead 61%-37%.

This poll was done October 4-11 among 1040 likely voters.

McAuliffe Lead in VA Down to 1%

Wednesday, October 6th, 2021

I’ve been a little delinquent lately so to get a new thread going, here is a new poll from Emerson College that shows Terry McAuliffe with a single-percentage-point lead in the gubernatorial race in Virginia.

GOVERNOR – VIRGINIA (Emerson)
Terry McAuliffe (D) 49%
Glenn Youngkin (R) 48%

This poll was done October 1-3 among 620 likely voters.