Archive for the ‘General’ Category

Newsom Keeping Job Leads By Double Digits in CA

Monday, September 6th, 2021

The votes will be counted a little more than a week from now and the latest poll from The Trafalgar Group shows Gavin Newsom looking more and more like he will be able to finish this term.

Keep 53%
Remove 43%

Larry Elder (R) 32%
Dan Paffrath (D) 13%
Kevin Faulconer (R) 4%
Kevin Kiley (R) 4%
Jacqueline McGowan (D) 3%
John Cox (R) 3%
Caitlyn Jenner 1%

This poll was done September 2-4 among 1079 likely voters.

DeSantis leads Fried/Crist by 3% in FL, Trails Biden By Double Digits in 2024

Friday, September 3rd, 2021

We have a new poll out of Florida from RMG Research that shows Ron DeSantis holding a 3% lead over both Charlie Crist and Nikki Fried in his bid for another term.

Ron DeSantis (R-inc) 41%
Nikki Fried (D) 38%

Ron DeSantis (R-inc) 41%
Charlie Crist (D) 38%

The best part of this press release may be what was included at the bottom:

Note: Neither Scott Rasmussen,, nor RMG Research, Inc. have any affiliation with Rasmussen Reports. While Scott Rasmussen founded that firm, he left more than seven years ago and has had no involvement since that time.

This poll was done August 21-28 among 1000 registered voters. DeSantis is not fairing nearly as well at the national level when compared to the former President in a match up against Joe Biden. The new numbers from Emerson College shows Donald Trump a single-percentage point ahead of Biden while DeSantis trails by double digits.

Donald Trump (R) 47%
Joe Biden (D-inc) 46%

Joe Biden (D-inc) 48%
Ron DeSantis (R) 36%

Joe Biden (D-inc) 42%
Mitt Romney (R) 23%

This poll was done August 30-September 1 among 1200 registered voters.

Ciattarelli Within 1% of Murphy in NJ, “Keep Newsom” Stretches Lead In Two More Polls

Thursday, September 2nd, 2021

Could the gubernatorial race in New Jersey be closer than the race in Virginia? A new poll from Fabrizio Lee and Associates shows the race down to a single percentage point.

Phil Murphy (D-inc) 46%
Jack Ciattarelli (R) 45%

This poll was done August 24-29 among 600 likely voters. Meanwhile in California, two new polls show that keeping Newsom appears to be more and more likely. These two new polls come from Public Policy Institute of California and Trafalgar Group.

Keep 58%
Remove 39%

Keep 52%
Remove 44%

The PPIC poll was done August 20-29 among 1200 likely voters. The Trafalgar poll wa done August 26-29 among 1088 likely voters.

Keeping Newsom Leads By 8% in CA, McAuliffe Leads Two More Polls in VA

Tuesday, August 31st, 2021

Is the attempt to recall Governor Gavin Newsom starting to fizzle. It seems most of the polling has either shown the recall effort to be at worst even and in many cases favorable to Newsom maintaining his job. The latest comes from Survey USA which has the “Keep” leading the “Remove” by 8%.

Keep 51%
Remove 43%

Larry Elder (R) 27%
John Cox (R) 6%
Kevin Paffrath (D) 6%
Holly Baade (D) 5%
Kevin Kiley (R) 5%
Brandon Ross (D) 5%
Kevin Faulconer (R) 5%
Everyone Else 3% or less

This poll was done August 26-28 among 816 likely voters. Meanwhile in Virginia, two more polls showing Terry McAuliffe ahead of Glenn Youngkin although the poll from Trafalgar Group has it within a single percent age point while Monmouth University shows a 5% lead for McAuliffe.

Terry McAuliffe (D) 47%
Glenn Youngkin (R) 46%

Terry McAuliffe (D) 47%
Glenn Youngkin (R) 42%

Trafalgar Group completed their latest poll between August 26-29 among 1074 likely voters and Monmouth University did their poll between August 24-29 among 802 registered voters. Glenn Youngkin has still yet to lead a single public poll in the Virginia gubernatorial race since the General election period began.

McAuliffe Leads By 6% and 9% In Two New Polls in VA

Thursday, August 26th, 2021

Two more polls from the state of Virginia showing Terry McAuliffe with a lead over Glenn Youngkin. These come from Change Research and Christopher Newport University.

GOVERNOR – VIRGINIA (Change Research)
Terry McAuliffe (D) 49%
Glenn Youngkin (R) 43%

Terry McAuliffe (D) 50%
Glenn Youngkin (R) 41%

Change Research completed their latest poll between August 17-21 among 1653 likely voters and Christopher Newport University did their poll between August 15-23 among 800 likely voters.

McAuliffe Leads Youngkin By 3% in VA / Two Polls in FL Give Different Results

Monday, August 23rd, 2021

Change Research has added to the recent pile of polls in Virginia and shows Terry McAuliffe up by 3% over Glenn Youngkin.

GOVERNOR – VIRGINIA (Change Research)
Terry McAuliffe (D) 47%
Glenn Youngkin (R) 44%

This poll was done August 14-18 among 1334 likely voters. While the margin fluctuates, one common theme of every public poll in Virginia thus far is Terry McAuliffe leads Glenn Youngkin. Meanwhile, we have two new polls in the state of Florida that completely contradict each other at the gubernatorial level. They come from the aforementioned Change Research and The Political Matrix/The Listener Group.

GOVERNOR – FLORIDA (Change Research)
Ron DeSantis (R-inc) 49%
Charlie Crist (D) 45%

Ron DeSantis (R-inc) 49%
Nikki Fried (D) 44%

Charlie Crist (D) 57%
Ron DeSantis (R-inc) 43%

Nikki Fried (D) 54%
Ron DeSantis (R-inc) 46%

Interestingly while hResearch was more favorable to Republicans at the gubernatorial level, their poll of the US Senate race was worse for Marco Rubio.

US SENATE – FLORIDA (Change Research)
Marco Rubio (R-inc) 47%
Val Demings (D) 44%

Marco Rubio (R-inc) 55%
Val Demings (D) 45%

The Change Research poll was done August 14-17 among 1455 likely voters while the Political Matrix/The Listener Group poll was done August 14-18 among 1000 likely voters. Two polls over basically the same exact period of time giving completely different results.

McAuliffe Leads Youngkin In Two New Polls in VA

Friday, August 20th, 2021

We received two new polls for the state of Virginia that give Terry McAuliffe an 8% lead (Roanoke College) a 3% lead lead (Virginia Commonwealth University).

GOVERNOR – VIRGINIA (Roanoke College)
Terry McAuliffe (D) 46%
Glenn Youngkin (R) 38%

Terry McAuliffe (D) 40%
Glenn Youngkin (R) 37%

Both polls were completed over more than a week period, with Roanoke College doing their poll between August 3-17 among 558 likely voters and Virginia Commonwealth University doing their poll between August 4-15 among 770 registered voters.

Murphy Dominates in NJ, Rubio Leads Two Polls in FL

Wednesday, August 18th, 2021

The Gubernatorial seat in the state of New Jersey still seems out of reach of Republicans in a new poll from Monmouth University.

GOVERNOR – NEW JERSEY (Monmouth University)
Phil Murphy (D-inc) 52%
Jack Ciattarelli (R) 36%

This poll was done August 11-16 among 810 registered voters. Meanwhile in Florida we have two different polls, one from and one from Susquehanna Polling and Research, that give wildly different views of the US Senate race in Florida in a potential match up between Marco Rubio and Val Demings. Either Marco Rubio is up by 11% or barely ahead by 2%.

Marco Rubio (R-inc) 50%
Val Demings (D) 39%

Marco Rubio (R-inc) 48%
Val Demmings (D) 46%

Meanwhile in the gubernatorial race, the Susquehanna poll has Ron DeSantis up over both Charlie Crist and Nikki Fried.

Ron DeSantis (R-inc) 46%
Charlie Crist (D) 43%

Ron DeSantis (R-inc) 50%
Mikki Fried (D) 40%

This poll was done August 4-10 among 700 registered voters.

Youngkin Within 2% of McAuliffe in VA

Saturday, August 14th, 2021

We have a new poll from co/efficient for the race in Virginia that shows former Governor Terry McAuliffe with a small 2% lead over Republican Glenn Youngkin.

GOVERNOR – VIRGINIA (co/efficient)
Terry McAuliffe (D) 47%
Glenn Youngkin (R) 45%

This poll was done August 8-9 among 1200 likely voters.

DeSantis Leads GOP Presidential Field Without Trump

Tuesday, August 10th, 2021

The latest poll from McLaughlin and Associates shows the Republican nomination is Donald Trump’s if he wants it as he hits 54% in the GOP field. Without him, Ron DeSantis continues to lead the GOP field with Donald Trump’s is now in second place.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – GOP PRIMARY (McLaughlin and Associates)
Ron DeSantis 23%
Donald Trump Jr 12%
Mike Pence 11%
Ted Cruz 9%
Candace Owens 6%
Ivanka Trump 5%
Mitt Romney 4%
Nikki Haley 4%
Marco Rubio 4%
Kristi Noem 2%
Mike Pompeo 2%
Liz Cheney 1%
Tim Scott 1%
Tom Cotton 1%
John Kasich 1%
Rick Scott 0%

This poll was done July 29-August 3 among 467 likely primary voters.