Archive for the ‘Election 2008 – Polls’ Category

Obama and the Internet

Sunday, March 1st, 2009

One of the reasons that Obama defeated John McCain was his superior use of the internet. The contrast between the two candidates could not have been clearer. On the one hand, we had a campaign that was internet savvy and another campaign whose own candidate was quoted by the NY Times as saying “he had not mastered how to use the Internet and relied on his wife and aides like Mark Salter, a senior adviser, and Brooke Buchanan, his press secretary, to get him online to read newspapers (though he prefers reading those the old-fashioned way) and political Web sites and blogs.”

http://www.washingtonian.com/blogarticles/people/capitalcomment/8815.html

The McCain campaign’s website even had a link to the far left website the DailyKos. Talk about shooting yourself in the foot…

Discuss…

Polls From CA, CT and PA

Sunday, January 20th, 2008

It just dawned on me that the longer we go without either party picking a nominee means every single state on February 5th will potentially be releasing a new poll. And if you thought we were getting a lot of polls for Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, just wait to see how many get with 24 states voting on the same day. In fact, they are already starting. First up this morning, a new poll out Friday from Scott Rasmussen in the state of California (R/D).

PRESIDENT – CALIFORNIA – PRIMARIES

McCain 24%
Romney 17%
Huckabee 13%
Thompson 13%
Giuliani 11%
Paul 6%
Hillary 38%
Obama 33%
Edwards 12%
Somebody Else 3%

This poll was done January 14th among 471 Republicans and 897 Democrats. Next up, the state of Connecticut and a new poll from the University of Connecticut.

PRESIDENT – CONNECTICUT – PRIMARIES

McCain 39%
Giuliani 16%
Romney 11%
Huckabee 8%
Thompson 8%
Paul 2%
Hillary 41%
Obama 27%
Edwards 9%
Gravel 0%
Kucinich 0%

This poll was done January 9=17 among 403 Democrats and 401 Republicans. Finally, one non-Super Tuesday poll from the state of Pennsylvania and Franklin & Marshall College.

PRESIDENT – PENNSYLVANIA – PRIMARIES

McCain 30%
Giuliani 14%
Huckabee 12%
Thompson 8%
Romney 7%
Paul 2%
Hunter 1%
Hillary 40%
Obama 20%
Edwards 11%
Kucinich 2%

This poll was done January 8-14 among 286 Democrats and 277 Republicans.

SC: McCain and Obama Lead

Wednesday, January 16th, 2008

Polls out from three different polling organizations today for the primaries in South Carolina. We’ll start with this morning’s poll from Democrat John Zogby that shows McCain with a small lead in what is developing as a two-man race with Mike Huckabee.

PRESIDENT – SOUTH CAROLINA – GOP PRIMARY (Zogby)
John McCain 29%
Mike Huckabee 23%
Mitt Romney 13%
Fred Thompson 12%
Ron Paul 6%
Rudy Giuliani 5%

This poll was done January 13-15 among 813 likely voters. We will be a new poll from Zogby every morning until Saturday. We also have a new poll from Clemson University that shows the same two-man race among the Republicans.

PRESIDENT – SOUTH CAROLINA – GOP PRIMARY (Clemson)
John McCain 29%
Mike Huckabee 22%
Mitt Romney 13%
Fred Thompson 10%
Ron Paul 6%
Rudy Giuliani 3%
Duncan Hunter

This poll was done January 9-15 among 450 likely voters. Moving over the Democratic side, the gang at Insider Advantage gives Barack Obama a double-digit lead.

PRESIDENT – SOUTH CAROLINA – DEM PRIMARY (Insider Advantage)
Barack Obama 41%
Hillary 31%
John Edwards 13%
Dennis Kucinich 1%

This poll was done January 14-15 among 400 likely voters.

MD: O’Malley Job Approval At 35%

Monday, January 14th, 2008

The latest poll from The Baltimore Sun puts Barack Obama and John McCain in the lead in our home state of Maryland.

PRESIDENT – MARYLAND – PRIMARIES

McCain 26%
Huckabee 18%
Giuliani 16%
Romney 12%
Thompson 6%
Other 7%
Obama 39%
Hillary 26%
Edwards 12%
Other 4%

And mirroring a recent poll from Scott Rasmussen that showed our esteemed Governor with a 33% job approval rating, The Baltimore Sun has their own poll showing O’Malley’s job approval rating sinking into the 30’s.

GOVERNOR O’MALLEY JOB APPROVAL RATING
Approve 35%
Disapprove 45%

And when it comes to the massive tax hikes that have just been levied on the citizens of Maryland, more than 50% oppose the new taxes.

O’MALLEY TAX HIKE PLAN
Support 32%
Oppose 54%

Other snippets from the article, 51% of respondents think the plan is “unfair” to most people in Maryland and 52% think the Maryland economy is headed int he wrong direction.

Unfortunately, I have no faith that the voters of Maryland will remember this in three years when O’Malley is up for re-election. As the article points out, Governor Ehrlich never had a job approval rating below 50%, but that wasn’t enough for them to toss him out of office for O’Malley simply because of their hatred of Bush….

I am curious whether we will get any other information from this poll. I would love to see some poll numbers for the Congressional primary races in the 1st and 4th districts….

SC: Obama Thumping Hillary

Monday, January 7th, 2008

I know we haven’t got past New Hampshire yet, but the polls are coming in from South Carolina already and they show Barack Obama surging well ahead of Hillary. First, Scott Rasmussen gives Barack Obama 12% lead.

PRESIDENT – SOUTH CAROLINA – DEM PRIMARY
Barack Obama 42%
Hillary 30%
John Edwards 14%
Someone Else 7%

This poll was done January 6th among 553 likely voters. No Republican numbers yet.

And we also get a new poll from Survey USA that shows an even larger lead for Barack Obama and a double digit lead for Mike Huckabee.

PRESIDENT – SOUTH CAROLINA – DEM PRIMARY
Barack Obama 50%
Hillary 30%
John Edwards 16%
Someone Else 2%

PRESIDENT – SOUTH CAROLINA – GOP PRIMARY
Mike Huckabee 36%
Mitt Romney 19%
John McCain 17%
Fred Thompson 11%
Rudy Giuliani 9%
Ron Paul 5%
Someone Else 1%

This poll was done January 4-6 among 658 likely Republican voters and 579 likely Democratic voters.

NH: Polls Already Out This Morning (UPDATED)

Monday, January 7th, 2008

American Research Group, still trying to repair their reputation after their final Iowa Caucus poll, is out with the latest edition of their tracking poll which adds to the rapidly growing list of polls showing Barck Obama with a double digit lead (R/D).

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – DEM PRIMARY
Obama 39%
Hillary 28%
Edwards 22%
Richardson 4%
Kucinich 2%
Gravel 2%

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – GOP PRIMARY
McCain 35%
Romney 27%
Huckabee 12%
Giuliani 10%
Paul 7%
Hunter 2%
Thompson 2%
Keyes 1%

This poll was done January 5-6 among 600 likely primary voters in each party. There were a bunch of polls that came out last night as well and were posted last night a couple posts down. As they come in and as I can, I will continue to add the polls that come out today to this post.

UPDATE (12:17pm): And here ios what we have so far this morning:

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – PRIMARIES (Zogby)

McCain 34%
Romney 29%
Huckabee 10%
Giuliani 9%
Paul 6%
Thompson 3%
Hunter 1%
Obama 39%
Hillary 29%
Edwards 19%
Richardson 6%
Kucinich 2%

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – PRIMARIES (Fox News/OD)

McCain 34%
Romney 27%
Huckabee 11%
Giuliani 9%
Paul 5%
Thompson 2%
Hunter 1%
Obama 32%
Hillary 28%
Edwards 18%
Richardson 6%
Kucinich 2%

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – PRIMARIES (Rasmussen)

McCain 32%
Romney 31%
Huckabee 11%
Giuliani 10%
Paul 8%
Thompson 3%
Hunter 2%
Obama 38%
Hillary 28%
Edwards 18%
Richardson 8%
Kucinich 4%

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – PRIMARIES (Marist)

McCain 35%
Romney 31%
Huckabee 13%
Paul 8%
Giuliani 5%
Thompson 4%
Hunter 2%
Obama 36%
Hillary 28%
Edwards 22%
Richardson 7%
Kucinich 3%

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – PRIMARIES (CBS News)

No Data Yet Obama 35%
Hillary 28%
Edwards 19%
Richardson 5%
Kucinich 4%

Democrat John Zogby: January 4-6 among 834 LV (R) and 844 LV (D).

Fox News/Opinion Dynamics: January 4-6 among 500 LV each party.

Rasmussen (R/D): January 5-6 among 1094 LV (R) and 1203 LV (D).

Marist College: January 5-6 among 628 LV (R) and 788 LV (D).

CBS News: January 5-6 among 323 LV (D).

Another Debate Open Thread + 4 Polls

Sunday, January 6th, 2008

I might actually be able to watch this one. Give your thought before, during and after what is the final Republican debate before the vote on Tuesday. Starts on Fox News at 8:00pm.

And a pre-debate poll from CNN and WMUR from the University of New Hampshire.

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – DEM PRIMARY
Obama 39%
Hillary 29%
Edwards 16%
Richardson 7%
Kucinich 2%

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – GOP PRIMARY
McCain 32%
Romney 26%
Huckabee 14%
Giuliani 11%
Paul 10%
Hunter 1%
Thompson 1%

Also. go one post down to get your predictions in The Hedgehog Report New Hampshire Primary Prediction Contest.

UPDATE (8:30pm): Two more polls out tonight from Strategic Vision and USA Today/Gallup that Obama starting to run away with the Democratic nomination.

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE (Strategic Vision)

John McCain 34%
Mitt Romney 20%
Mike Huckabee 13%
Rudy Giuliani 8%
Ron Paul 8%
Fred Thompson <3%
Duncan Hunter <3%
Barack Obama 41%
Hillary 28%
John Edwards 19%
Bill Richardson 6%
Dennis Kucinich 3%

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE (Gallup)

John McCain 35%
Mitt Romney 27%
Mike Huckabee 13%
Rudy Giuliani 8%
Ron Paul 7%
Fred Thompson 5%
Duncan Hunter 1%
Barack Obama 38%
Hillary 29%
John Edwards 19%
Bill Richardson 7%
Dennis Kucinich 1%

Both polls were done January 4-6.

UPDATE (9:43pm): Yet another poll out tonight, this one Franklin Pierce University (R/D).

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE (Franklin Pierce)

John McCain 38%
Mitt Romney 29%
Mike Huckabee 9%
Rudy Giuliani 8%
Ron Paul 7%
Fred Thompson 2%
Duncan Hunter 0%
Barack Obama 34%
Hillary 31%
John Edwards 20%
Bill Richardson 6%
Dennis Kucinich 1%

This poll was done January 4-6 among 409 likely Republican primary voters and 403 likely Democratic primary voters.

NH: McCain/Romney/Hillary/Obama All Lead In 2 Polls

Sunday, January 6th, 2008

Four polls out…so far… today for the state of New Hampshire. We’ll start with the two that still have numbers from prior to the Iowa caucus, starting with the latest poll from Mason-Dixon.

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – PRIMARIES (Mason-Dixon)

McCain 32%
Romney 24%
Huckabee 12%
Giuliani 9%
Paul 8%
Thompson 3%
Hunter 1%
Keyes 1%
Obama 33%
Hillary 31%
Edwards 17%
Richardson 7%
Kucinich 1%

This poll was done January 2-4 among 400 likely voters in each party. Almost a useless poll since 2/3 of it was done prior to the Iowa Caucus. The second poll that still includes pre-Iowa numbers is the one from Democrat John Zogby.

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – PRIMARIES (Zogby)

Romney 32%
McCain 31%
Huckabee 12%
Giuliani 7%
Paul 6%
Thompson 3%
Hunter 1%
Hillary 31%
Obama 30%
Edwards 20%
Richardson 7%
Kucinich 3%
Dodd 1%
Biden 1%

This poll was done January 2-5 among 844 likely Democratic primary voters and 837 likely Republican primary voters. Again, half the poll came from prior to the Iowa caucuses. Now for some post-Iowa numbers, starting with the latest numbers from Scott Rasmussen that gives Barack Obama his biggest lead yet while the GOP race remains close.

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – PRIMARIES (Rasmussen)

McCain 32%
Romney 30%
Paul 11%
Huckabee 11%
Giuliani 9%
Thompson 4%
Hunter 2%
Obama 39%
Hillary 27%
Edwards 18%
Richardson 8%
Kucinich 3%
Gravel 0%

This poll was done January 4-5 among 1210 likely Democratic voters and 1102 likely Republican primary voters. Finally, a new Suffolk University poll, done over the same dates as the Rasmussen poll, still has Hillary and Romney in front.

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – PRIMARIES (Suffolk)

Romney 30%
McCain 27%
Giuliani 10%
Paul 9%
Huckabee 7%
Thompson 2%
Hunter 1%
Hillary 35%
Obama 33%
Edwards 14%
Richardson 5%
Kucinich 1%
Gravel 1%

This poll was done January 4-5 among 500 likely voters in each party’s primary.

NH: Three More Polls

Saturday, January 5th, 2008

Three new polls out today, all done post-Iowa caucus, that basically show a bump for Obama and no bump for Huckabee. First, new numbers from the latest University of New Hampshire poll done for CNN and WMUR.

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – DEM PRIMARY
Barack Obama 33%
Hillary 33%
John Edwards 20%
Bill Richardson 4%
Dennis Kucinich 2%

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – GOP PRIMARY
John McCain 33%
Mitt Romney 27%
Rudy Giuliani 14%
Mike Huckabee 11%
Ron Paul 9%
Duncan hunter 1%
Fred Thompson 1%

This poll was done January 4-5 among 313 likely Republican and 359 likely Democratic primary voters.

Also out today is a new poll from American “Hillary will Iowa by 9%” Research Group (R/D).

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – DEM PRIMARY
Barack Obama 38%
Hillary 26%
John Edwards 20%
Bill Richardson 3%
Mike Gravel 3%
Dennis Kucinich 1%

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – GOP PRIMARY
John McCain 39%
Mitt Romney 25%
Mike Huckabee 14%
Rudy Giuliani 7%
Ron Paul 6%
Alan Keyes 1%
Duncan Hunter 1%
Fred Thompson 1%

This poll was done January 4-5 among 600 likely primary voters in each party.

Next, Research 2000 shows McCain up by 6% and Obama ahead by 1%.

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – DEM PRIMARY
Barack Obama 34%
Hillary 33%
John Edwards 23%
Bill Richardson 4%
Dennis Kucinich 3%

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – GOP PRIMARY
John McCain 35%
Mitt Romney 29%
Mike Huckabee 13%
Rudy Giuliani 8%
Ron Paul 7%
Fred Thompson 3%

This poll was done January 4-5 among 400 likely voters in each party.

Personally, I am somewhat surprised by the seeming strength of John Edwards, although he is still in the second tier behind Obama and Edwards. But clearly McCain has moved into a small lead over Mitt Romney. If anything, McCain appears to have gotten Huckabee’s bounce as Huckabee is basically in the same position he was before the Iowa caucuses.

NH: Obama Surges Ahead Of Hillary

Saturday, January 5th, 2008

The polls from New Hampshire are pouring in and a new one from Scott Rasmussen taken entirely after the Iowa Caucus gives Barack Obama a double-digit lead over Hillary and McCain holding a 5% lead over Romney.

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – DEM PRIMARY
Obama 37%
Hillary 27%
Edwards 19%
Richardson 8%
Kucinich 3%
Gravel 1%

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – GOP PRIMARY
McCain 31%
Romney 26%
Paul 14%
Huckabee 11%
Giuliani 8%
Thompson 5%

This poll was done January 4th among 510 likely voters. On the flip side, the latest edition of the Suffolk University tracking poll shows Mitt Romney ahead of John McCain while Hillary’s lead dropping from 12% to 7%.

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – DEM PRIMARY
Hillary 36%
Obama 29%
Edwards 13%
Richardson 4%
Kucinich 1%
Biden 1%
Gravel 1%

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – GOP PRIMARY
Romney 30%
McCain 26%
Huckabee 11%
Giuliani 11%
Paul 8%
Thompson 2%
Hunter 1%

This edition of the poll covers January 3-4 among 500 likely voters in each party.

This morning’s edition of his tracking poll from Democrat John Zogby.

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – DEM PRIMARY
Hillary 32%
Obama 28%
Edwards 20%
Richardson 7%
Kucinich 3%
Biden 2%
Dodd 1%

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – GOP PRIMARY
McCain 32%
Romney 30%
Huckabee 12%
Giuliani 9%
Paul 7%
Thompson 3%
Hunter <1%

This edition shows both Romney and Obama gaining on the leader from yesterday and was done January 1-4 among 887 likely Republican primary voters and 893 likely Democratic primary voters.