Archive for the ‘2010 Senate – PA’ Category

Toomey Holds 9% Lead Over Sestak In PA

Tuesday, August 17th, 2010

As promised, Scott Rasmussen’s poll on the US Senate race in Pennsylvania.

Pat Toomey (R) 46%
Joe Sestak (D) 37%

This poll was done August 16th among 750 likely voters.

Sestak Leads Specter By 1%, Perry Cruising In TX

Monday, May 17th, 2010

We did a final Pennsylvania poll from Quinnipiac University this morning after all that shows Joe Sestak barely ahead of Arlen Specter.

Joe Sestak 42%
Arlen Specter (inc) 41%

There are actually more undecided now then there were last week in Quinnipiac’s poll. This poll was done May 12-16 among 951 likely voters. Meanwhile, Scott Rasmussen gives us a rather pointless poll out of Texas showing Republican Rick Perry ahead of Democrat Bill White by double digits.

GOVERNOR – TEXAS (Rasmussen)
Rick Perry (R-inc) 51%
Bill White (D) 38%

This poll was done May 13th among 500 likely voters. I guess Rasmussen thought this was more pressing than a new poll out of Pennsylvania.

Wednesday Morning Tidbits (w/ PA Polls)

Wednesday, May 12th, 2010

Last night, I never got back home in time to really check things out. We had former PA senator Rick Santorum as the guest speaker at the annual Howard County Republican Lincoln Day Dinner.

If you want to read more about it, you can check things out at the local site.

We have our second incumbent member of Congress to lose a re-election primary last night following Bob Bennett’s ouster in Utah. In West Virginia, Democratic Congressman Allan Mollohan was defeated by a Democratic candidate Mike Oliverio, who is apparently more conservative than Mollohan, thereby actually helping Democrats hold this seat in November.

Across the pond, David Cameron is now the new Prime Minister of the UK, after Gordon Brown’s desperate attempts to hang onto power failed.

Both Gallup and Rasmussen show split support for the nomination of Elena Kagan by Barack Obama. According to the Gallup article, all three of President Bush’s nominees (including the failed nominee Harriet Miers), as well as Obama’s first nominee Sotomayor, had better initial numbers than Kagan.

The polls out of Pennsylvania should start coming fast and furious. We’ll start with the latest from Quinnipiac University, which contradicts what others have been showing, showing Arlen Specter with a slim lead over Joe Sestak.

Arlen Specter (inc) 44%
Joe Sestak 42%

This poll was done May 5-10 among 945 likely voters. Meanwhile, Franklin and Marshall College’s latest poll gives Joe Sestak a slim 2% lead among likely voters over Specter.

Joe Sestak 38%
Arlen Specter (inc) 36%

Among the 404 registered Democrats in the poll, Specter actually leads 38%-29% in the poll done May 3-9. Finally, has the latest results from Muhlenberg College showing Arlen Specter surging back into a tie with Joe Sestak in the daily tracking poll..

Arlen Specter (inc) 45%
Joe Sestak 42%

This poll was done May 8-11 among 407 likely voters. Sestak had a lead in the previous four days of this poll. Personally, I still think Specter can pull this off.

Speaking of Pennsylvania, Susquehanna Polling and Research has a new poll for the Special Election next week that shows Democrat Mark Critz ahead in his bid to keep this seat in Democratic hands over Republican Tim Burns.

Mark Critz (D) 44%
Tim Burns (R) 38%

This poll was done May 10th among 400 likely voters. My fear in this election is the Democratic primary for the US Senate has become so heated that it will drive Democrats to the polls and give a decided edge to the Democrats simply because they will have more people at the polls than Republicans. Unfortunately, Republicans do not really have a competitive election on the same day. At the Daily Kos twitter site, kos says he will have polls for the US Senate races in Arkansas, Kentucky and Pennsylvania at some point this week. Rasmussen never did release that Alaska gubernatorial poll yesterday that he promised, maybe we will see it today.

The day is just starting…just think, in about four hours, the work week will be half over…enjoy it…more later….

PA: Sestak Within 2% Of Toomey

Monday, May 10th, 2010

Adding to the news (well actually it isn’t news since it happened over a year ago) that Arlen Specter voted against Elena Kagan for Solicitor General, Joe Sestak now has a new poll from Scott Rasmussen that shows he is a much stronger General Election candidate than Arlen Specter against Pat Toomey.

Pat Toomey (R) 50%
Arlen Specter (D-inc) 38%

Pat Toomey (R) 42%
Joe Sestak (D) 40%

This poll was done May 6th among 1000 likely voters.

Monday Morning Tidbits (w/ MD Polls)

Monday, May 10th, 2010

I guess the big news this morning is the expected nomination of Elena Kagan to become the net justice of the Supreme Court. But when she was nominated to be the Solicitor General, seven Republicans voted to confirm her including Coburn, Collins, Hatch, Kyl, Gregg, Lugar and Snowe.

On the polling front, a new poll for my home state of Maryland from The Washington Post that claims Democratic incumbent Martin O’Malley holds a 8% lead over Republican Bob Ehrlich.

Martin O’Malley (D-inc) 49%
Bob Ehrlich (R) 41%

This poll was done May3-6 among 851 registered voters. In better news for Republicans in Maryland, Republicans appear to have a chance of picking up a second congressional seat if a new poll from Public Opinion Strategies is to be believed.

Andy Harris (R) 39%
Frank Kratovil (D-inc) 36%

This poll was done April 25-26 among 400 likely voters. And moving slightly north, Joe Sestak’s lead over Arlen Specter has now grown to 5% in the latest tracking poll from Muhelnberg College.

Joe Sestak 47%
Arlen Specter (inc) 42%

This version of the poll covers May 6-9 among 398 likely voters.

We did have a perfect game yesterday. Enjoy your morning…more later….

Specter/Sestak Tied In PA, Kasich Leads Strickland By 1% in OH

Friday, May 7th, 2010

More polls on this Friday are rolling in and we start with a new poll from Scott Rasmussen for the gubernatorial race in Ohio where John Kasich is maintaining his 1% lead over Ted Strickland.

GOVERNOR – OHIO (Rasmussen)
John Kasich (R) 46%
Ted Strickland (D-inc) 45%

This poll was done May 5th among 500 likely voters. Meanwhile, and maybe even more shocking, the latest daily tracking poll from Muhlenberg College now shows Arlen Specter and Joe Sestak in a dead heat tie.

Arlen Specter (inc) 43%
Joe Sestak 43%

This poll covers May 3-6 among roughly 410 likely voters. Speaking of troubled incumbent Democrats, Blanche Lincoln’s lead over leftist candidate Bill Halter is down to 12% in the latest poll from Mason-Dixon.

Blanche Lincoln (inc) 44%
Bill Halter 32%


Gilbert Baker (R) 47%
Blanche Lincoln (D-inc) 39%

Jim Holt (R) 45%
Blanche Lincoln (D-inc) 40%

John Boozman (R) 52%
Blanche Lincoln (D-inc) 35%

Gilbert Baker (R) 42%
Bill Halter (D) 34%

Jim Holt (R) 42%
Bill Halter (D) 36%

John Boozman (R) 56%
Bill Halter (D) 32%

This poll was done May 3-5 among 625 registered voters with 400 likely voters in the Democratic primary.

PA: Sestak Closes To Within 4% Of Specter

Tuesday, May 4th, 2010

The daily tracking poll from Muhlenberg College now shows Arlen Specter’s lead over Joe Sestak down to a mere 4%..

Arlen Specter (inc) 46%
Joe Sestak 42%

The results above are for April 30th-May 3rd among 400 likely voters. Just remember, the only reason Arlen Specter switched parties was because he knew he would lose in the Republican primary. Oh the hilarity if he ended up losing in the Democratic primary….

PA: Sestak Within 8% Of Specter

Tuesday, May 4th, 2010

For those just waking up, it appears they caught the guy the Government believes is responsible for the attempted bombing in New York City. One thing I find interesting is this entire episode leads to a debate on how effective all those camera networks really are. Sure, it may have helped them catch this guy, but had this bomb not been defective, it clearly would not have stopped anything from happening….

Now to the real reason you normally come to this site. The primary elections for Ohio, Indiana and North Carolina all happen tonight and I will have threads on those later. For now, we have a new primary poll for the state of Pennsylvania from Quinnipiac University confirming other polls that show Joe Sestak moving to within single digits of Arlen Specter in the Democratic primary.

Arlen Specter (inc) 47%
Joe Sestak 39%

While Sestak is gaining on Specter, Dan Onorato appears to be running away with the Democratic nomination for Governor.

Dan Onorato 36%
Joe Hoeffel 9%
Jack Wagner 8%
Anthony Williams 8%

This poll was done April 28-May 2 among 930 likely voters. We should get new numbers from for these races at some point this morning. Public Policy Polling says they will have new Kentucky numbers at some point today. And I am sure we will get the normal gaggle of polls from Scott Rasmussen like we always do.

On that note, enjoy this beautiful Tuesday morning….

PA: Specter Leads Sestak By 9%

Monday, May 3rd, 2010

It appears Muhlenberg College and Morning Call will be releasing a daily tracking poll for the Democratic primaries in Pennsylvania for US Senate and Governor daily through the election on May 18th. In the release yesterday, Specter held a ^% lead over Sestak (48%-42%) and today’s release, only visible on the front page, shows that lead stretching to 9% in today’s release.

Arlen Specter (inc) 49%
Joe Sestak 40%

The poll also shows Dan Onorato running away with the Democratic nomination for Governor. The article with the May 2nd release indicates that each poll will cover the previous four days of polling and use roughly 400 likely voters each day. The results above are for April 29th-May 2nd.

PA: Another Poll Gives Toomey A Double-Digit Lead Over Specter

Wednesday, April 14th, 2010

Following up on this morning’s poll from Scott Rasmussen, we have another poll from Susquehanna Polling and Research that shows Pat Toomey holding a double-digit lead over Democrat Arlen Specter.

Pat Toomey (R) 48%
Arlen Specter (D-inc) 38%

It appears they did not include Sestak in a General Election match up, but do show Specter leading Sestak in the Democratic primary by 14%.

Arlen Specter (inc) 42%
Joe Sestak 28%

Dan Onorato 32%
Joe Hoeffel 13%
Jack Wagner 6%
Anthony Williams 4%

This poll was done April 7-12 among 700 likely voters.