ND: Hoeven Cruising

    In a race that was pretty much over the day he announced, John Hoeven appears well on his way to claiming the US Senate seat in North Dakota later this year according to a new poll from Scott Rasmussen.

    US SENATE – NORTH DAKOTA (Rasmussen)
    John Hoeven (R) 65%
    Heidi Heitkamp (D) 29%

    John Hoeven (R) 71%
    Tracy Potter (D) 17%

    This poll was done February 9-10 among 500 likely voters.

    Posted by Dave at 8:14 am
    Filed under: 2010 Senate - ND | Comments (100)

    100 Responses to “ND: Hoeven Cruising”

    1. Brandon says:

      First again

    2. Mark Cali says:

      First runner-up again 🙂

    3. Mark Cali says:

      And why the hell is Rasmussen polling North Dakota? I mean, it’s good to know, but can we get polls on IN, WA, WI, OR, or even, VT?

    4. Mark Cali says:

      In other news, water is wet…

    5. rdelbov says:

      This poll gives you an idea of Pomeroy’s Nov plans

      Patrick Kennedy is bailing. He passed on a RI senate seat in 1996 when Pell retired. He probably would have been an underdog to Jack Reed but you know with that Kennedy name who knows.

      Then he declined to take on young Chaffee in 2000 partially because his father was fond of the youngster. House leadership had also courted young Pat and he was given a prime committee spot and an early chance to move up the house leadership.

      Personal problems and lackluster brains stalled him and he passed on another senate race in 2006. Now he is seeking a new year career at age 43. I hope he can put a smily face on today’s announcement

    6. Phil says:

      Unreleased Kos poll:

      Hoeven 48
      Heitkamp 46

    7. Phil says:

      Pomeroy would definitely have a hard climb if he stayed in.

      Of course, Democrats seem to be hanging in there from one end of the country to the other. A liberal just is not going to give up power unless the voters carry them off the stage kicking and screaming. Maybe some are just waiting a few more months in the hope that the job reports will reverse.

    8. Brandon says:

      Just go back to their real poll of ND. They had Hoeven up 21 over Heitkamp, yet RAS has it as a 36 point difference. Hmmm….

    9. Phil says:

      I’d say a 10 to 15 point fudge is the norm for any poll commissioned by Kos.

      I’m anxious to see something out of RAS from Indiana. I expect to see something around a 6-8 point Bayh lead – not the low 20s that came out of Kos yesterday.

    10. Mark Cali says:

      Brandon, sounds about right, based on the MA-Sen numbers (not the final KOS poll, which dramatically closed the gap), they fudge about 15 points for the Dem. I believe it has to do with their Party ID manipulation and their live interview polling (less accurate IMO).

      Phil – Yes, we need an IN-Sen poll from Ras. The Kos poll is ridiculous. 40 point lead among Independents for Bayh?

    11. Brandon says:

      Another “trick” that I found that they use quite a bit, is that they stack the poll with young people.

      Case in point, in their final NJ poll, they had 17% of the electorate as 18-29. The exit polls showed that it was actually only 9%. In their final VA poll, they had 18-29 as 16% of the electorate. The exit polls showed that it was only 10%.

    12. Phil says:

      Good find Brandon. They are using 2008 hopey change age distributions.

    13. GPO says:

      true true

      Meanwhile, Michelle Malkin sees a lesson for the health care reform debate: “Best wishes for the former president’s recovery. Now, a timely reminder: Stents don’t grow on trees. They were not created, developed, marketed, or sold by government bureaucrats and lawmakers. One of the nation’s top stent manufacturers, Boston Scientific, has weighed in on the Democrats’ proposed massive taxes on medical device makers: ‘Boston Scientific Corp (BSX.N) warned on Tuesday that a proposed tax in the U.S. health care reform bill that cleared the Senate Finance Committee last week could have serious consequences for the company, including job losses.’ A teachable moment: Taxing innovation in the name of “health care reform” has consequences.”

    14. sam says:

      “And why the hell is Rasmussen polling North Dakota? ”

      Because it is easy to hide any mistakes. Nobody will remember what Ras’s numbers were when Hoeven cake-walks through the election. And then Ras can claim that he was right on his call.

      On the other hand, being wrong about a close race generates negative comments. See the MA senate race.

    15. DrJay says:

      The Economist has a poll out today, but it has a party split of roughly 36-25-31 D-R-I, so you might choose to do some mental math, or look at the splits.

      For example, Obama’s approval is 41-54 with independents, but 48-47 overall despite stronger disapproval from republicans than approval from democrats.

    16. Phil says:

      Chad McGowan, the leading Demcratic candidate for Jim Demint’s South Carolina senate seat has abruptly dropped out of the race. He had been endorsed by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

      He cited the fact that the timing was just not right.

      No duh.

    17. Phil says:

      Democratic +11 poll? And the guy is still 48-47.


    18. sam says:

      So we have Patches Kennedy dropping out because of adverse political climate, and we are to believe that Pereillo in VA-5 (the most vulnerable Dem, according to Charlie Cook) is in a toss-up.

    19. Tina says:

      Stocks are heading down!!!!

    20. Wes says:

      A year ago in a flagrant attempt to scare Hoeven out of this race, R2K had Dorgan crushing Hoeven by 57-35. That didn’t quite work as planned, did it?

    21. Phil says:

      Registered voter poll Sam based on 2008 turnout numbers, not 2010 likely voter turnout model. Also against the leading Republican who happens to have little name recognition.

      Va-5 flips and PPP knows it.

    22. Howard Dean says:

      Good bye Kennedy!


    23. Howard Dean says:

      N.J. Gov. Christie Freezes Spending

      With State’s Budget In ‘Shambles,’ New Governor Slices Into School Surpluses, NJ Transit Subsidies; Dems Furious

      TRENTON (CBS) ?

      The snow isn’t the only thing that’s causing a chill in the Garden State.

      Calling New Jersey’s budget a “shambles,” Gov. Chris Christie announced Thursday he is immediately freezing all state spending.

      Saying New Jersey is on the verge of bankruptcy, Christie declared a fiscal emergency, announcing drastic cuts. Among them, aid to school districts that have excess surpluses.

      “Today we are going to act swiftly to fix problems too long ignored. Today I begin to do what I promised the people of New Jersey I would do,” Christie said.

      The move had Democrats in an uproar, angry the governor used his executive powers instead of working with the Legislature.

    24. Chekote says:


      Good points by Malkin. However, I think it is unseemingly to turn everything into political talking points.

    25. Chekote says:

      The move had Democrats in an uproar, angry the governor used his executive powers instead of working with the Legislature.

      Bravo Christie! Screw the Dem legislature. They are the ones who created the problems in the first place.

    26. Howard Dean says:

      CBS has Obama at 46%


      Oh my.

    27. Chekote says:

      I am not surprised at the negative polls for Obama. He has been in office a year and what has he accomplished? Nothing. And he has huge majorities in Congress. That’s what happens when you put a novice in charge.

    28. Howard Dean says:

      Senate Dems ax bipartisan jobs bill


      I love Reid.


    29. Phil says:

      CBS decided to quit using D+10 samples.

      Why, I don’t know.

    30. Howard Dean says:

      Obama administration may abandon civilian Sept. 11 trial


      You can’t make this stuff up! The WH is a DISASTER on EVERY front.

      That’s why the trolls don’t post here any more.

    31. Chekote says:

      #28, 29 and 30

      Wheels coming off. Weeeee!!!!!!!!!!!

    32. Hellbelly says:

      I’m bummed out that Patrick Kennedy isn’t runnig for reelection. He was always good for a guffaw or two.

      No Kennedy’s in Congress next year?

      End of an error.

    33. Chekote says:

      End of an error.


      Seriously, the Kennedy have been riding that Camelot since the 60s. Quite a long time.

    34. jason says:

      “He cited the fact that the timing was just not right.”

      The guy is a genius….too smart to be a Democrat.

    35. jason says:

      “CBS/NYT has Obama at 46%…”

      Yes, but guess what, don’t laugh, the headline is “Obama has edge over Republicans”.

    36. Howard Dean says:

      Man Up, Obama, or Make Way for President Palin:

      Feb. 12 (Bloomberg) — President Barack Obama is starting to look like the second coming of Jimmy Carter. If he’s going to avoid that fate, the president had better take radical action — and fast.

      That means doing more than offering belated talk about jobs, or waging ineffectual on-again, off-again bank warfare. What, after all, is the point of bashing Wall Street only to then blow bonus kisses to JPMorgan Chase & Co. chief Jamie Dimon and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. head Lloyd Blankfein?

      Obama needs to ditch his professorial, community-organizer mien and start cracking some heads. Unless, that is, he is intent on paving the way for a Palin presidency in 2013.

      Supporters are crying out for Obama to pull out of his tailspin. In an article in Politico, Douglas Wilder, the nation’s first African-American governor and an early Obama supporter, urged the president to get his act together.

      “The need is becoming more obvious by the day,” Wilder wrote. “Getting elected and getting things done for the people are two different jobs.”

      Obama’s lack of resolve even makes comparisons to Carter seem charitable. Financial blogger Eric Salzman argued that we haven’t seen such a lack of leadership “in the White House since our 15th president, James Buchanan, stood by and let the country dissolve into Civil War while trying to appease everyone.”

    37. Tina says:

      Is it 46 percent with adults???

      That equals 42 to 43 among likely.

      Cheney has destroyed the admin cred (never had any) on terrorism. surveillance, etc.

    38. Phil says:

      Oh brother.

      Support builds among Democrats for Murtha’s widow to run for his seat.

      It never ends, does it?

    39. Sgt. Schultz says:

      “Support builds among Democrats for Murtha’s widow to run for his seat.”

      She heard nothing, saw nothing, knows nothing….

    40. Phil says:

      Democrats do what it takes to keep power.

    41. Hellbelly says:

      …..its a long way from “support builds among democrats” to “Mrs. Murtha is running.”

      Murtha’s death was not something she was expecting as recently as a month ago. If she’s any kind of human being she’s still in a state of shock. This kind of story strikes me as very much in the “wishful thinking” stage on the part of dems desperate to hold the seat and I’m not gonna lose any sleep over it.

    42. Howard Dean says:

      Support builds among Democrats for Murtha’s widow to run for his seat.

      It never ends, does it?

      Comment by Phil — February 12, 2010 @ 10:08 am

      They learned nothing from MA.

      Invoked Kennedy at every turn and lost in MA.

      Which is FAR more Dem heavy than Murtha’s district.

      I would love to see her in a debate.

      Does she even know what state she’s in?

    43. Phil says:

      Probably not.

    44. rdelbov says:

      Mrs. Murtha is a hail Mary pass. The local newspaper mentioned she was active in the local girls chapters.

    45. Brutus says:


      Democrats love the sympathy vote, e.g., Carnahan-MO

      Patrick Kennedy said he would devote his work to something like the Special Olympics. Was that as a participant?

    46. pitchaboy says:

      The only sympathy they will get is between a slap and syphilis.

    47. Phil says:

      Would love to see Shays run for his old seat.

    48. DW says:

      Looks like Obama is running out of rescue polls. If Gallup dips today at 1pm, could see red for first time in the RCP average.

    49. Howard Dean says:

      And people wonder why the Audi SB commercial riled the left:

      Harvard Hometown Plans Coercive Taxes, Veganism to Stop Climate ‘Emergency’

      By Joshua Rhett Miller


      Congestion pricing to reduce car travel. Elimination of curbside parking. A carbon tax “of some kind,” not to mention taxes on plastic and paper bags. Advocating vegetarianism and veganism, complete with “Meatless or Vegan Mondays.” Those are just some of the proposals put forth by the Cambridge Climate Congress, an entity created in May 2009 to respond to the “climate emergency” plaguing the Massachusetts city.

      Going green will not be optional in Cambridge, Mass., if the Cambridge Climate Congress has its way. It will be mandatory.

    50. Phil says:

      RAS ND House

      Berg(R) up over Pomeroy(D) 46-40

    51. D QUIXOTE says:

      Would love to see Shays run for his old seat.

      If only to see him whupped up on.

    52. jason says:

      Food police will be knocking on doors in Cambridge…”do we smell grilled hotdogs”?

    53. jason says:

      “Would love to see Shays run for his old seat.

      If only to see him whupped up on.”

      Great thinking…I suppose you prefer Jim Hines, the moonbat that took his seat…

    54. DW says:

      52…wow, Cook, Roth., and CQ all have this seat as a SOLID DEM HOLD. They are whistling past you know where.

    55. Phil says:

      Pomeroy knows he is in trouble. Regardless of whether Cook and company want to admit it or not. He’s ssen the internal polling.

      If any Democrats are going to actually retire, I’d think this guy would be one of the prime candidates. On the other hand, these Democrats aren’t showing any inclination to leave the Titanic – at least yet.

    56. Brutus says:


      They all have man crushes on DiCaprio.

    57. DW says:

      57…but Pat Kennedy already left the ship. Maybe the ship’s tavern was already under water so there was no reason to stay on board.

    58. sam says:

      I don’t want all the ‘Rats to retire. I want to see some old-fashioned whipping.

    59. rdelbov says:

      Coakley showed a new face in old clothing can be beat as easy as an old rug.

      Patrick Kennedy might be the one of just a few democrat congressmen who would run below the generic democratic ballot. Its almost always easier to win an open seat then to beat an incumbent. Janjorski and P. Kennedy might be the exceptions.

      So in RI you do have an open seat situation but Kennedy was really unpopular so that’s a good question as to whether its solid D or not.

      On the plus side for the GOP there will be a nasty democratic primary ending in Sept and it will be a referumdum vote on Obama’s handling of the economy. Those two factors alone make solid D a stretch

    60. GPO says:

      Dodd is another example of it would have been better to face the incumbent

    61. DW says:

      I was actually wrong about Cook in #56, he had the ND race as Leans Dem. Now lets see if this poll will cause him to move it into Tossup.

    62. Gary Maxwell says:

      Dont know about anyone else this AM but I have a foot of global warming in my driveway. Record snowfall EVER for DFW! In places where its sliding off the roof I have piles 4 feet high!

      I am not going anywhere, maybe the whole weekend.

    63. Tina says:

      American consumers were more pessimitic about the path of the economy in February, according to media reports of a survey released Friday by the University of Michigan and Reuters. The UMich index fell to 73.7 in February from 74.4 in January. Consumers were more upbeat about currrent economic conditions, with the current index rising from 81.1 in January to 84.1, the highest since March 2008. However, attitudes about the near-term deteriorated, with the expectations index falling to 66.9 in February from 70.1 in January. Expectations had risen three months in a row. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting the UMich index to rise to about 76.0.

      Consumer confidence drops

    64. phoenixrisen says:

      Phil you out there? I’m sorry. I spewed out the popcorn laughing at the Kos polls out of Indiana. Personally, I think it is a dead heat statistically with Bayh against any GOP candidate that wins the nod. If Coats wins, that ground and foundraising operation of his will really ramp up and take Bayh to the cleaners. Coats is probably anxious to hang Bayh’s HC vote around his neck in the debate and remind everyone of it. Once that happens, game over unless Coats does something stupid. My gosh, the wheels are really coming off the Dems this morning. Bad polls everywhere, Patrick Kennedy dropping out, fun times. Looks like Chris Christie is starting to clean house in Jersey. November is going to be a LOT OF FUN.

    65. phoenixrisen says:

      In regards to Michigan, I’ve got a strong feeling that Hoekstra will win a close one against Cox for the GOP nod for governor. I don’t think Bouchard will be a factor. He got whomped in his race for Senate. It will be Hoekstra or Cox as the next Michigan governor. People up there are pretty much wanting to change anything. It is miserable there economically.

    66. Kristen says:

      What happened to (Earl?) Pomeroy, the Congressman from ND. Wasn’t he the strongest challenger to Hoeven?

      Still, great news. Color ND a nice, deep red.

    67. Gary Maxwell says:

      One of the Massachusetts Democrat congressmen, McGovern has drawn 4 Republicans and an Independent as challengers. Thank you Scott Brown for making these turds spend money, and maybe still lose.

    68. rdelbov says:

      Dodd -ditto-poor candidate-lots of baggage

      Tina-folks will be hanging on to their bucks. lots of sales specials but people are hanging to their cash.

      re:Michigan. I am still surprised that Cox did not clear the field in that race. As AG he has been an electoral superstar and I had him as sho-in for this race. I guess that geography and dutch name is propelling Hoestra. Bouchard & Cox split the detroit area vote while Hoeskra is out country. geography is often destiny

    69. DW says:

      Here is the blurb that CQ politics has on their website talking about the race in RI-01 (Pat Kennedy):

      “Kennedy, a second-generation member of his family’s famed New England political dynasty, has rarely faced a serious challenge for re-election in the predominantly Democratic 1st District, and it’s hard to believe he’s going to be in serious risk in his race this year. But he will have to deal with a bonafide challenge. John Loughlin, the State House minority whip has filed to run against Kennedy. A savvy politician with professional campaign operatives running his show, Loughlin could be the strongest candidate ever to challenge Kennedy. The eight-term Democrat has also had a personally challenging time since his easy 2008 re-election victory. He had to return to a rehabilitation facility to deal with a recurrent addiction problem, about which he has been publicly open. Then he lost his father and political mentor, Massachusetts Sen. Edward M. Kennedy, who died of brain cancer on Aug. 25, 2009.Rhode Island’s 1st District borders Massachusetts, where a shift of disgruntled independent voters produced a stunning result: Republican Scott Brown won the Jan. 19 special election to fill the seat that the elder Kennedy had held since 1962 and which his brother, John F. Kennedy, had earlier used as a springboard to his presidential election victory in 1960. So Loughlin could have some reason to hope that voters could turn against Patrick Kennedy this November.Nonetheless, this is Kennedy’s seat to lose. It’s going to be hard, even in a more Republican-friendly year, for the GOP candidate to run a highly competitive race in a district that favored Democrat Barack Obama for president with 65 percent in 2008. Patrick Kennedy was born in 1967, nearly four years after one uncle, President Kennedy, was assassinated in Dallas in November 1963, and about 11 months before another uncle, New York Sen. Robert F. Kennedy, was cut down by a gunman in Los Angeles after winning the June 1968 Democratic presidential primary in California.”

      I expect them to shorten it a little in the next 24 hours.

    70. Brutus says:

      Remember the record snow in DC, Dallas, Rome, and deep south is due to global warming and its change on weather patterns.

      No surprise that the world climate institute in Wales or wherever kept it’s records sealed and violated the UK’s freedom of information act to prevent review.

      Please Al, do an after school special on this “pattern”.

    71. D QUIXOTE says:

      Don’t know about anyone else this AM but I have a foot of global warming in my driveway. Record snowfall EVER for DFW! In places where its sliding off the roof I have piles 4 feet high!

      Comment by Gary Maxwell

      Carports at my bunker complex , near DFW. 5 more down as well.

    72. DW says:

      where are the trolls lately?

    73. Phil says:

      Alan should be driving by soon. He’s a little late because he had to put snow chains on his tires.

    74. Kristen says:

      Smaller races to which we can look forward:

      All on 2/16

      Alabama House 40
      Mississippi Senate 36
      New Hampshire Senate 16

    75. Jeff G. says:

      Just a reminder that McCain-Feingold was “Shays-Meehan” in the House. Maybe the Republicans can find someone else to challenge for that seat other than someone who supported unilateral GOP disarmament on campaign finance reform.

    76. Gary Maxwell says:


      That is a serious mess! Trees down everywhere. I have lost internet connection a few times. 175K without power in DFW. I am staying inside by the fire.

    77. DrJay says:

      Pew has coughed up the obligatory 49-39 approval rescue poll…

    78. AlN says:

      If Gallup dips today at 1pm, could see red for first time in the RCP average.
      Comment by DW — February 12, 2010 @ 10:53 am

      Nope, can’t happen yet. All of the other RCP polls (including today’s 47-52 RAS) add up to dead even. Thus Gallup would have to have a poll where the net Disapproval exceeds net approval. They’re still at +6 as of yesterday, so they can’t make that big a drop today.

      But we’re getting close!

    79. AlN says:

      Pew has coughed up the obligatory 49-39 approval rescue poll…
      Comment by DrJay — February 12, 2010 @ 12:39 pm

      I hate these polls with 12% Undecided. When they are pushed, almost all of them say they Disapprove, which is why most of the pollsters (RAS excepted) won’t push.

    80. AlN says:

      where are the trolls lately?
      Comment by DW — February 12, 2010 @ 12:25 pm

      The only regular trolls anymore are the Paulbots, Bunu and Jerry.
      Then again, if you ask BPL, almost all of us are trolls! lol

    81. Brandon says:

      Ras gets more people to offer an opinion because instead of just asking approve or disappprove, he adds a “somewhat” option in there as well.

    82. Jeff G. says:


      Good point. Scott Rasmussen has explained in the past that the “somewhat” option pulls most people over to one side or the other.

    83. DW says:

      It was just a couple of years ago here on HHR that if you as much as suggested that global warming wasn’t real, the trolls would harass you non-stop. Many of the regulars here were pressed into statements like the warming is probably real, but its just not man-made. How about Dallas and Ft. Worth? How about it middle-atlantic states? Is it getting warmer? Where are the Al-Gore trolls???

    84. D QUIXOTE says:

      That is a serious mess! Trees down everywhere. I have lost internet connection a few times. 175K without power in DFW. I am staying inside by the fire.

      Comment by Gary Maxwell

      Smart move. Should be gone by tomorrow.

    85. D QUIXOTE says:

      Crissy shays was the arlen specter of the house.

    86. Yolanda says:

      Throw another foot of dirt on Chris Shays’ political grave, please.

      The guy endorsed Obama in 2008.

    87. Wylie E. Coyote - Super Genius says:

      Excellent article on Lincoln (the real one):

      “Remembering Mr. Lincoln

      Posted by Scott at 5:35 AM

      Today is of course the anniversary of the birth of America’s greatest president, Abraham Lincoln. As a politician and as president, Lincoln was a profound student of the Constitution and constitutional history. Perhaps most important, Lincoln was America’s indispensable teacher of the moral ground of political freedom at the exact moment when the country was on the threshold of abandoning what he called its “ancient faith” that all men are created equal.”

    88. Tim says:

      Agreed, Wylie. Lincoln was our greatest President.

    89. Tina says:

      Yes, Lincoln was our greatest –

      2nd Greatest – Ronald Reagan

    90. Tina says:

      Is this the end of the Kennedys in power???

    91. Chekote says:


      I don’t believe he did. Shays was always a huge McCain supporter.

    92. ac1 says:

      Chris Shays took some votes I did not agree with but the guy is from CT for heaven sakes.

    93. Chekote says:

      Medina is getting a lot of flack for her “truther” comments. She is dropping like a stone in the polls.

    94. Phil says:

      Melancon has lousy political timing.

    95. phoenixrisen says:

      Brandon, that isn’t a surprise. Independents have turned on Obama and Democrats en masse across the country. It’s a beautiful thing 🙂

    96. Phil says:

      For example…….Melancon losing independents 3 to 1.