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    AL: Republicans Lead Gov, Senate Races

    For your afternoon pleasure, we have some polls from Scott Rasmussen with his view of the US Senate and Gubernatorial races in Alabama.

    GOVERNOR – ALABAMA (Rasmussen)

    Bradley Byrne (R) 50%
    Artur Davis (D) 33%

    Tim James (R) 49%
    Artur Davis (D) 35%

    Kay Ivey (R) 43%
    Artur Davis (D) 36%

    Artur Davis (D) 44%
    Roy Moore (R) 40%

    Bradley Byrne (R) 43%
    Ron Sparks (D) 35%

    Tim James (R) 38%
    Ron Sparks (D) 34%

    Kay Ivey (R) 39%
    Ron Sparks (D) 33%

    Ron Sparks (D) 40%
    Roy Moore (R) 35%

    US SENATE – ALABAMA (Rasmussen)
    Richard Shelby (R-inc) 59%
    William Barnes (D) 32%

    These polls were done March 29th among 500 likely voters. We are supposed to see a poll for Wyoming as well.

    Posted by Dave at 5:05 pm
    Filed under: 2010 Governor - AL | Comments (204)

    204 Responses to “AL: Republicans Lead Gov, Senate Races”

    1. Erich says:

      Byrne for Governor!

    2. Tim says:

      I think that Kay Ivey has dropped to the Lt. Governor’s race.

    3. rdelbov says:

      Tim

      Correct Ivey just moved to Lt Gov Race.

      I see a chance now Bryne can avoid a runoff.

    4. KnightHawk says:

      shout out!

      Tim I bet your not happy about the impeachment talk of baker via the state legislature huh. 😉

    5. KnightHawk says:

      -your / +you’re ..

    6. MD says:

      What’s wrong with Roy Moore?

    7. Wes says:

      Roy Moore needs to quit running for office. He didn’t do too well in 1998 when his name was Fob James.

    8. Tim says:

      Not really surprised, KnightHawk. The sponsors of the measure to do that made their point by bringing it forward.
      And, the Leadership can just let it ride, citing no time to get to it.

      Plus, it is an Election year.

      I bet that Roy Barnes wasn’t happy. It gives Baker free publicity, and makes him sort of a hero with some Dems. LOL

      On the other side, I imagine the GOP base is happy that somebody at least did something.

      Gonna be interesting to see how far the Governor goes with this, though. Don’t you think?

    9. Wes says:

      He’s a loon more obsessed with displaying the 10 Commandments in a court than in being a responsible judge, MD. He lost to Riley in the 2006 primary, and it looks as if he’ll lose this time aorund too.

    10. Tony says:

      Hey, looky there: Another birther issue 😀

      http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2010/mar/10033108.html

      “Reacting to Clinton’s comments, Mary Ellen Douglas, national organizer for Campaign Life Coalition (CLC), told LifeSiteNews (LSN), “How dare she stick her pro-abortion nose into Canadian politics. Hasn’t she done enough damage to the unborn in the U.S.?””

    11. Wes says:

      The gOP in Alabama went down the path Moore wnats to lead them down once before when Fob James served as Governor in the ’90s. His 15-point loss to Siegelman back then seems to have convinced them not to make the same mistake twice.

    12. Tim says:

      Mike, quite a group of people considered Judge Moore a hero for his 10 Commandments stand. Curiously, many of those same folks now think he cheapens that stand by using the notoriety to promote his political career. So, I dunno….

    13. Wes says:

      There are pro-lifers in Canada? Call me shocked.

    14. KnightHawk says:

      Yes I was very happy, was raising hell last week (clearly I was not alone), at least something came of it.

      Not really up to the gov though; though I suppose if the clock runs out on the current session he could call them to order to take up the issue.

    15. Wes says:

      Moore is a charlatan, a loon, a lightweight, and a self-promoting opportunist, Tim. He has no business being elected to anything.

    16. Tony says:

      I actually thought Moore had a good chance of winning that race. The left potrayed him as a loon, perhaps some of it stuck.

    17. Tim says:

      I agree, Wes. Plus, Byrne is clearly the best candidate on the GOP side.

      If he is the nominee, it’s a 15-20 point blowout, I think.

    18. Jason T says:

      Davis thought voting no on HC would help him in Alabama.

      What a fraud, member of the CBC and a Marxist

    19. Chekote says:

      Great piece by Jonathan Turley:

      Is the Individual Mandate Constitutional?

      With this legislation, Congress has effectively defined an uninsured 18-year-old man in Richmond as an interstate problem like a polluting factory. It is an assertion of federal power that is inherently at odds with the original vision of the Framers. If a citizen who fails to get health insurance is an interstate problem, it is difficult to see the limiting principle as Congress seeks to impose other requirements on citizens. The ultimate question may not be how Congress can prevail, but how much of states’ rights would be left if it prevailed.

      Hypocrisy rears its head
      To get to the constitutional question, you first have to strip away the deep layer of hypocrisy in Washington. Many lawmakers now screaming about the sanctity of federalism voted for prior laws that were overturned by the Supreme Court on federalism grounds. Moreover, few of these mostly Republican members uttered a word of support when states opposed federal interventions on medical marijuana and physician-assisted suicide during the Bush administration (Yup, big government SoCons strike again).

    20. Jason T says:

      Ignorance thy name is Chekote

    21. Chekote says:

      #20

      Oh please! Only the SoCons would care about medical marijuna. These are the same people who scream “federalism” when it comes to Roe v. Wade. But they are more then happy to have the heavy hand of government do its stuff when it comes to their pet issues. Again, much of the SoCon agenda undercuts the limited government argument.

    22. KnightHawk says:

      Reminder: HOLD THE LINE.

    23. D QUIXOTE says:

      RESTRAIN THE URGE

    24. Jason T says:

      Sorry. I forgot. Just ignore

    25. Chekote says:

      I am sure Obama must be smiling right now thanks to this:


      Sarah Palin blasts President Obama’s oil drilling decision

      Oh I forgot! Palin was an oil commissioner for less than one year. Another job she quit.

    26. D QUIXOTE says:

      HOLD~~~~~

    27. Jason T says:

      She ruined Polipundit, let us try and save this board

    28. D QUIXOTE says:

      HHR PRIME DIRECTIVE IS IN EFFECT

    29. Chekote says:

      You guys can bury your heads in the sand all you want. The only reason Bush got involved in medical marijuana was to please the Focus on the Family crowd.

    30. JENNA HAZE says:

      Hi Chekote,

      Was that you who just sent me those abortion pics?

    31. JENNA HAZE says:

      Leave Chekote alone!

      She’s a feminist like me.

    32. D QUIXOTE says:

      HONOR THE PRIME DIRECTIVE

    33. Howard Dean says:

      2.111

    34. picaso says:

      jenna without her makeup.

    35. Marv says:

      D QUIXOTE

      I thought the Prime Directive was “Never Answer Your Phone on a Day Off”.

    36. D QUIXOTE says:

      Just tell them you’ve been drinking.

    37. JENNA HAZE says:

      34,

      You know I actually shot a scene with her!

      The movie was called “Porn Trolls 2010”

    38. Jason T says:

      Army colonel with a PHD will take on Scott Traitor Murphy in the NY-20

    39. rdelbov says:

      I for one think Boxer is in real trouble. Talk about wearing out your welcome.

      Sadly her weird eco stand on water for farmers might doome her.

      about 10% of the voters are in the Central valley. Under normal circumstances she might lose by 10% there but could be 25% this year

    40. rdelbov says:

      I talked Chris Gibson earlier today. I am up on him. Seems like a great guy who wants to be a congressmen.

      Here’s my take on Roy Moore. Roy-your time is past. Great guy-stick to judging and leave the governing to others.

      I have taught the ten commandments in Sunday school and have problem with the idea of displaying them in public.

      That being Judge Roy has not displayed, in my opinion, the qualities I want in Governor.

    41. Jason T says:

      Rdel, the marxist whores in D>C will just send water he wat to appease the dimwitted CAl Farmers who vote Democrat.

      Look at Baca and Cordoza

    42. jenna says:

      Boxer~~~another graveyard for boners.

    43. Jan says:

      HD

      I’ll believe it when I see it — regarding replacing Boxer. However, if miracles do happen, and she is defeated this state will have a little hope injected into a possibility of recovery.

      The dems and the people voting them in have ruined this state!

    44. Jason T says:

      Do UE numbers come out Friday

    45. Marv says:

      Yes

    46. Jason T says:

      Jan, I agree. The same Farmers who bit#h about Water, vote in DEMS like Cardoza, Baca, Gary Condit etc…

    47. JENNA HAZE says:

      Hi Jan!

      Long time no hear…

    48. Jason T says:

      I am sure the CBO is helping the Dept. of Labor under Rahm’s eye/ Look for 8.9 on Friday

      They all are in bed with Obama

    49. D QUIXOTE says:

      . The same Farmers who bit#h about Water, vote in DEMS like Cardoza, Baca, Gary Condit etc…

      Comment by Jason T

      May their crops rot in the fields,may their wives become barren, may their testicles shrivel to grapes.

    50. Jason T says:

      British Tories moving up on Intrade.

      Rdel, has the Scottish Marxist set up an Election date.

    51. KnightHawk says:

      49 Why not 7.7… happy days are here again!

    52. Jason T says:

      The farmers cannot have it both ways.

      They are good patriotic americans, but love handouts.

    53. Jason T says:

      Hawk, I have no faith after the CBO scam.

    54. Jason T says:

      Howard, that number is awful, but what media outlet will report that?

    55. Chekote says:

      Patriotism has nothing to do with handouts or handins. Besides, the people who are busting the budget are the seniors on Medicare and Social Security.

    56. D QUIXOTE says:

      When the full import of this HC cluster foxtrot hits home, you will see double digit unemployment for the foreseeable future.Galt the bastards.

    57. Chekote says:

      #58

      Another reality based solution offered by DQ!

    58. Diogenes says:

      Steady … STEADY.

    59. Howard Dean says:

      Poll: More blame Obama for poor economy, unemployment

      USATODAY

    60. D QUIXOTE says:

      It will only get worse from here.

    61. Diogenes says:

      Obama is nothing more than a narcissistic liar. The sooner we boot the guy out of office the better off America will be.

      The 2 main things revealed by such an empty suit being promoted to office is that affirmative action is a joke and that black voters are useless and vote their skin color before issues.

    62. D QUIXOTE says:

      Your basic demokrat load of CRAP

    63. George says:

      Ouch! I’m a senior on Medicare and Social Security.

    64. Chekote says:

      #65

      Those are the facts. So all these people here whining about government programs, I wonder how many of them or members of their families collect Social Security and Medicare.

    65. GPO says:

      Phil Hare- constitution schmonstitution- I know whats best for u idiots

    66. Bunu says:

      Rand Paul on the Glen Beck show today talking about his group’s lawsuit challenging the mandates and talking about the threat to privacy from nationwide electronic medical records.
      part 1
      and part 2.

    67. Gary Maxwell says:

      Hey Tim:

      As a Georgian and a Democrat you must be exceedingly proud of Hank Johnson. The congressman asked an admiral is putting the naval base on Guam would tip the island over! I slit you not! Whoa! The educational system in Atlanta needs some work.

    68. GPO says:

      WEC u around?

    69. Tommy_Boy says:

      This analysis from Rove suggests that a lot of Republicans stayed home.

      http://www.rove.com/polling_notes/0000/0092/PN_N_040110.pdf

    70. Tina says:

      What have I missed today?

    71. mnw says:

      Tina

      Hayworth announces he raised $936,000 in March.

      Bunu

      Give it up.

    72. Tina says:

      Thanks, I listed to JD yesterday on Levin. The more he said, the more angry I got about McCain.

      We need solid conservatives – not election time conservatives, but moderate politicians.

    73. Tommy_Boy says:

      Obama is only at 49% in this poll that has a sample of 33% conservative with 20% liberal and 20% between the ages of 18-29.

    74. Trolletta says:

      Hello everyone. Hi MD, whats new with the indies? LOL

    75. rdelbov says:

      jason T

      Talk has it that next week Brown will set an election date in 6 weeks

    76. rdelbov says:

      Not sure what the numbers for unemployment & jobs created will be on friday

    77. ameister says:

      R’s would be smart to watch browns playbook.
      He is loaded up with people who worked for
      Obama in 08. They are using a comeback
      strategy that could be implemented in
      part here if it works. They are demonizing
      Cameron for threatening to take away
      their freebies. Hell Brown even got a dog
      today. Wonder if it was a poodle?

    78. Jason T says:

      Thanks Rdel buddy.

    79. Jason T says:

      ameister, Intrade, Ladbrokes and most of the Euro Bookie do not buy it. They see Brown having a small dead cat bounce. The damage is done.

      UK politicos say Brown supporting the invasion of Iraq destroys any comeback

    80. Diogenes says:

      British people are stupid as hell (Fabian socialism for 30 years and only mild reforms to stem it afterwards).

      They deserve what they get with Chancellor Brown.

      As for America, thank god not enough of us are on the dole yet for such a stupid strategy to work.

      And for Rove … he basically just stated what Polaris and most of us were saying: Fiscal conservatives stayed home.

    81. Tommy_Boy says:

      I wonder if Lincoln will leave the party if she loses to Halter.

      I think she’d be useful to us as a tool we can use to pummel the Democrat party as an anti-woman party. Just the thought of it is pretty delicious.

    82. LaZebra says:

      And for Rove … he basically just stated what Polaris and most of us were saying: Fiscal conservatives stayed home.
      Comment by Diogenes — April 1, 2010 @ 9:44 pm

      Cowards! As Rush said 2 weeks ago — look what they gave us: Obamacare, lagging support for Israel, a wise Latino woman on the Supreme Court, and maybe Cap & Trade next.
      Wow, they really taught us a lesson, didn’t they. Anyone who claims to be a “conservative” and stayed home in 2008 deserves ZERO respect. Actually, Wes has a proper word for them (the same one you used for Manilow).

    83. ameister says:

      Hope u r right 84. the campaign has to be run
      right. right on the issues and a bad campaign=
      loser. Thats what I look at. That said I don’t
      claim to have any innate knowledge of UK politics
      but I like to follow the strategies for
      future reference

    84. Diogenes says:

      McCain voted for tarp. that was the main thing that kept those conservatives home and lost him the election. He didn’t have a good pulse on what americans wanted to hear which was that these bailouts were an abomination.

    85. Jason T says:

      Dio, I agree. Many conservatives were disgusted by the fact that McCain did not fight against Obama.

      While the Marxist Media was savaging Palin, McCain took a pass on Reverend Wright etc..

      Those stay at home right wing voters will be back this year after Deathcare passed

    86. Wes says:

      How go things, everyone?

    87. Wes says:

      I would argue the fact that GWB didn’t argue effectively for his policies hurt the GOP just as much as McCain’s ineffective campaigning, Jason.

    88. Jason T says:

      True Wes.

      The NY GOP finally got it right, and put up a good candidate against Scott Murphy in the NY-20

    89. mnw says:

      I’ve been drinking, but… it took me 15 minutes to figure out who “brown” is.

      I thought you all were talking about Gov. Moonbeam.

    90. Wes says:

      I’m pretrty hammered too, Mnw.

    91. Wes says:

      God, I can’t spell tonight.

    92. mnw says:

      Well… we have something in common.

    93. Wes says:

      Jason, I pray to God the NYGOP can get Pataki to run against the Bimbette. Everything else has been a recruitment failure. I hope Pataki reverses that course.

    94. Wes says:

      I had one too many margaritas, Mnw. What about you?

    95. Wes says:

      KNIGHTHAWK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!WHERE THE HELL ARE YOU, BUDDY>

    96. Wes says:

      ?????

    97. mnw says:

      They preempted Greta to put on Palin’s “Great American Heroes” show.

      L-A-M-E! Beyond all telling of it! FOX is about to have its first (at least to my knowledge) severe ratings failure. They are WAY over-invested in Palin!

      Without regard to her merits as a politician, she is BORING & PEDESTRIAN!

    98. D QUIXOTE says:

      Someone has had too many bahama mamas.

    99. Wes says:

      Actually they were presidente margaritas, DQ.

    100. KnightHawk says:

      Lol Wed you have good timing I just hit refresh from 3 like hours ago 🙂

      I’d rather watch this every Thursday or an hour then Greta that’s for sure, though they should have done it in BOR’s slot that guy is useless I don’t even bother with the tivo-FF of him anymore.

    101. rdelbov says:

      Rove on Hannity this afternoon-heard it as I drove around-he sounded a note of caution.

      He said the GOP actually needs good candidates to beat democrats this fall.

      I agree with that in theoryg. I might add that I have been pretty impressed with alot of our guys.

      Strange but one of the hallmarks of the 1994 GOP sweep was the numerous people whose 1st elective office was congressmen.

    102. mnw says:

      brandy & club soda.

      On my doctor’s advice, I’m trying to cut back to 6-7 a night.

      But it isn’t easy.

      Old story about Bix Biederbeck (sp?):

      Bix goes to doctor. “How much do you drink in an average day, Bix?”

      Bix: “I don’t know.”

      (Doctor produces a 1-liter flagon & fills it w/ water) “Do you think you drink more than this during an average day?”

      Bix: (squints at flagon) “Hell, doc. I SPILL more than that.”

    103. Diogenes says:

      @wes – It seems like Thompson is almost certain to jump in.

    104. Wes says:

      Good to hear, Dio.

    105. Wes says:

      Dear God, I can barely type, My keyboard just keeps spinning.

    106. Jason T says:

      Dio, it sounds like both Rossi and Thompson will jump in. But you never know.

      Good thing about hose like Pataki, Rossi, and Thompson is great Name ID, plus you do not have to give up a House Seat like you would with Reichert etc..

      Rove blew 2006, I ignore him now.

    107. Wes says:

      I spilled a shitload of margarita at Chili’s tonight, Mnw. Every time I poured the damn thing, I spilled it and the uberhot bartender had to come wipe it off the bar.

    108. Wes says:

      Rove’s an idiot, Jason.

    109. D QUIXOTE says:

      Ease the stick forward and neutralize the rudder.

    110. KnightHawk says:

      113 – So she cleaned up your wet spot?

    111. Wes says:

      Huh>?

    112. Wes says:

      I guess she did, Knight.

    113. KnightHawk says:

      later gals. 😉

    114. Wes says:

      She was hot too. A black chick with fuckin huge tits. I think I managed to get her number somewhere too.

    115. Jason T says:

      Right on Wes. Party on Wayne

    116. MD says:

      A tear in my eye! The discipline on this thread was the best ever – by far.

      “Good” candidates does not mean they have to be known names at this time. Hard work, an enthusiastic team and clearly defined principles can help create the buzz. I see a lot of evidence of that on the
      GOP side. There are so many districts in play, that I have a heard time coming up with a scenario where the GOP does not regain the House.

      The msms controlled Marxists will try of course, but there relevance shrinks by the day.

    117. Jason T says:

      the GOP gov of AZ, just got the OK to sidestep the Marxist AG, and will sue the FEDs of Healthcare

    118. Jan says:

      It seems that political neophytes are being added to the mix now. These are newbies coming to the forefront because of concerns and passion to change the DC landscape. It remains to be seen what these “outsiders” can do — maybe just have a whole new fresh approach to fixing the system!

    119. Jason T says:

      MD, good discipline today ignoring the She RINO, but she will never leave

    120. Wes says:

      I’m glad she did that, Jason.

    121. rdelbov says:

      Md

      right on. There are numerous examples of ambitious guys & gals who went out there and won themselves house or senate seats.

      Recruitment is great but sometimes people who really want to win races are the best candidates.

      I guess every unemployment report is anticipated but if we see positive numbers (due to the census additions) look for the adminstration to be out in force.

      Obama has been speeching and fundraising in Maine & MA-tommorrow in NC. Last week in Iowa.

      I guess someday he will get to one of those “McCain” states.

    122. Wes says:

      If history’s any guide, Jan, then some of them’ll prosper and some will crash and burn. Alot of good candidates in wave years are pisspoor in average years or years that go the other way.

    123. Wes says:

      Sometimes people who just run for the hell of it aren’t all that great too, Rdel. See Al Salvi for example.

    124. Wes says:

      I’m going to have have a hangove rin the morning, I can feel it.

    125. Jason T says:

      Look at 1994. A neophyte doctor, Frist, beats the potential majority leader in Sasser. Fred Thompson was an actor.
      Spencer Abraham etc..

    126. rdelbov says:

      Jan

      Here in TN the likely congerssional candidates in the 8th & 4th are 1st time guys. Two of the main guys in 1st & 2nd AR are newbies.

      I guess until these primaries play out we will see how many new guys there are.

    127. Diogenes says:

      We need to get as much of the bench on the court this year though. Conditions will never be this good again for a long while. Pataki I can kind of understand since he would have to almost immediately have to start campaigning again for 2012 when the climate might not be so good. But the for the other states. Rossi and Thompson need to jump in and start fundraising right away.

      With Rossi and Thompson in (combined with 5 digit employment growth in May) we have an gut-shot straight draw of hitting 11 and an open-ended straight draw of hitting 10 seats to gain back the majority.

    128. Wes says:

      Abraham was a neophyte who blew a 17-point lead and lost when he was up for reelection, Jason.

    129. D QUIXOTE says:

      With Rossi and Thompson in (combined with 5 digit employment growth in May) we have an gut-shot straight draw of hitting 11 and an open-ended straight draw of hitting 10 seats to gain back the majority.

      Comment by Diogenes

      Wouldn’t that just frost their balls.

    130. Wes says:

      He can always decline a reelection bid, Dio. No one says Senators have to run for reelection.

    131. Jason T says:

      Dio, we will have great shots in 2012 and 2014 if the Kenyan is re-elected.

      In 2012, out of 31 Seats, 24 are dem.

      In 2014 all the accidental scum like Begich, Kagen etc. will be wiped out

    132. Wes says:

      Thompson and Inhofe had to run for reelection just after winning election to the Senate in ’94. That didn’t discourage them from running.

    133. Jason T says:

      If we win the House, I want to hear Boehner do his best Mister Burns and say ” Release the Hounds” with Special Prosecutors.

    134. Wes says:

      You mean Hagan, Jason. Kagen is a Congressman from somewher ein the midwest. Minnesota, I think, or Wisoonsin.

    135. Jan says:

      Wes

      Take some vit B12. It can soften a hangover. To much Tequila can really “hurt” the brain, that is for sure. But, it’s sure fun and delicious when it’s going down!

    136. Wes says:

      know what you mean, MD.

    137. Wes says:

      Er, Jan…

    138. Phil says:

      Ok, It’s time for my monthly job prediction for tomorrow’s numbers.

      Here goes. After reading 6 or 7 articles regarding predictions from everything from Money magazine to the AP, it looks to me like

      365,000 jobs

      and 9.4

      Over 100K census jobs plus another 100K jobs returning from the bad weather in Feb

      Another 160,000 jobs from a combination of a modestly better economy and some fudging in the Obama labor Dept. I’m sure Rahm has by now got his hands on the counting mechanism.

      The media ticker tape parade begins around 8:00 in the morning with the party beginning on the Today Show followed by The View and culminating with a full pep rally on all three major network evening newscasts reaching their combined 25 million viewers. Perky Katie will have multiple orgasms while Brian Williams will be part of a circle jerk in front of a full portrait of Barack Obama.

      It will be a big F en deal all day long.

      Praise be to Barack.

    139. Phil says:

      Ok, It’s time for my monthly job prediction for tomorrow’s numbers.

      Here goes. After reading 6 or 7 articles regarding predictions from everything from Money magazine to the AP, it looks to me like

      365,000 jobs

      and 9.4

      Over 100K census jobs plus another 100K jobs returning from the bad weather in Feb

      Another 160,000 jobs from a combination of a modestly better economy and some fudging in the Obama labor Dept. I’m sure Rahm has by now got his hands on the counting mechanism.

      The media ticker tape parade begins around 8:00 in the morning with the party beginning on the Today Show followed by The View and culminating with a full pep rally on all three major network evening newscasts reaching their combined 25 million viewers. Perky Katie will have multiple orgasms while Brian Williams will be part of a circle jerk in front of a full portrait of Barack Obama.

      It will be a big F en deal all day long.

      Praise be to Barack.

    140. Phil says:

      hey, a double post. Must have been important.

    141. Jan says:

      Phil

      Why is your figure for census jobs only 100,000, when they are estimating 650,000-800,000 hires for that?

      Also the underemployment numbers keep edging up and are now 20.3% as of March.

      I guess I think you are high.

    142. Phil says:

      My numbers or me?

    143. Diogenes says:

      I don’t think we will reach 365k jobs. 100-150k seems more reasonable.

      But phil is always the pessimist. High end I would put it at 250-300k. Now census jobs might inflate it past this, but I doubt it.

    144. Phil says:

      They say possibly a million for the census but not all hired at once.

    145. Phil says:

      No, that was the old Phil. The new Phil that first appeared in January is a big time optimist.

    146. Jan says:

      Phil

      the numbers, not you lol…I’m still laughing!

    147. Diogenes says:

      Well if the census numbers are included then the August, september, october numbers will look terrible.

      Most of what I’m reading shows a topline of around 200k.

    148. MD says:

      Do the census workers count since it is “temporary”.

      Anyway, I want people to do well so I am rooting for a good jobs number.

      The mids will NOT turn on the economy.

      How is that for going against CW?

    149. Jan says:

      The new Phil that first appeared in January is a big time optimist. —> “new” Phil

      That’s a neat transformation, Phil!

    150. Phil says:

      Diogenes – You know, that’s what I was thinking. From what I’ve read these census jobs are for around 8 wks. Meaning of course that these folks go back into the unemployment line relatively soon.

    151. Phil says:

      I sort of have spanned the entire optimism spectrum over the last year I’ll have to admit.

      I took a beating on the board last year for my gloom. Probably deserved.

    152. MD says:

      JT,

      I disagree. That type of personality that craves attention will go elsewhere to be fed is IT is not fed here.

    153. MD says:

      Phil,

      Unfortunately, your pessimism proved to be fairly accurate.

    154. Tommy_Boy says:

      MD,

      I’ve been arguing for quite some time that Obama’s approval rating/re-election chances is not tied to the economy or unemployment rate.

    155. Phil says:

      Well, lets just say I’m bullish on November but scared to death of the damage this guy can still do while he has power.

      Thank God for the military. Right?

    156. MD says:

      Yea Phil, the military, LOL! I think that now qualifies as an inside joke between me and you.

    157. MD says:

      Yea Phil, the military, LOL! I think that now qualifies as an inside joke between me and you.

    158. justsayin' says:

      Cong Hare (IL-17)came to Quincy, Illinois today and
      had a public town hall at the Sr Center. The people
      were pissed at him. Cong Hare got so flustered
      that he said he does not believe in the constitution.
      Spring cleaning in Illinois takes place on Nov. 2nd.

    159. MD says:

      Not sure why that double posted.

      TB,

      I agree but have to tell you that I think Obama will be a very formidable incumbent for 12. When 13% of the vote will give you almost 100% of their vote AND will turn out, then it makes you tough to beat.

      No prediction from me. It is way too early but I am already seeing that people are writing him off.

    160. MD says:

      just,

      I wonder if that is on Youtube. Honestly, I am suprised that any yes votes in swing districts are holding town halls. I guess some were stupid enough to buy Pelosi’s sales pitch.

    161. Tommy_Boy says:

      #165 I’m not writing him off. I’m just saying that his chances of re-election don’t depend on there being a high unemployment rate.

      That’s why I never got too hawkish about our chances when the unemployment rate went up. It’s relevant but not relevant to the degree that people think.

      I think everyone understates the cultural argument that has been spawned in the Obama era against him. How our candidate in ’12 plays the cultural cues is more important in my mind that the unemployment number.

    162. MD says:

      TB,

      I actually disagree with that somewhat. POTUS elections normally turn on econmic issues. Mid-terms turn on anything but economic issues generally.

      There are exceptions to each rule but it is rare.

    163. MD says:

      TB,

      I actually disagree with that somewhat. POTUS elections normally turn on econmic issues. Mid-terms turn on anything but economic issues generally.

      There are exceptions to each rule but it is rare.

    164. Tommy_Boy says:

      MD,

      I agree that they normally turn on economic issues but I think Obama has created a different equation in American political life.

    165. justsayin' says:

      Re 164 Cong. Hare IL 17

      “What possible reason would I ever have to vote for you?” McQueen asked.

      “I didn’t look at this as a bill that was going to get me a whole lot of votes,” Hare said.

      “It’s working,” an audience member shouted.

    166. Wes says:

      You enjoy double posting, don;t you, MD?

    167. MD says:

      TB,

      You could be right about that. We will see. I know one thing for certain – Obama cannot afford a bad economy when he is running for reelction. That would hurt him. I think his Dems will pay the price for his overreach potentially more than he will.

    168. Phil says:

      Yeah, I’m not seeing Obama going down in 2012. It will be closer for sure – Florida, NC, Indiana flip back to us for sure and I think Ohio as well. Unfortunately, that leaves us 20 electoral votes short. The last 20 are tough. Correct, 13% are 100% for Barack and they all vote. A Republican will need at least 59% of the white vote – probably 60. We only got around 55 or 60 last time.

      The guy will raise and spend a billion bucks and that’s a factor.

      Got to have a decent candidate. Retreads from 08 are sure losers. I’m bullish on someone like Thune.

      To tell you the truth, I’m not sure we can get Obama to leave in 2016. I’m serious as a heart attack about that. We’ll see if the military comes through. LOL

    169. wylie e. coyote - super genius says:

      Is PigMan er Waxhand going after this guy too?

      ” doctor who considers the national health-care overhaul to be bad medicine for the country posted a sign on his office door telling patients who voted for President Barack Obama to seek care “elsewhere.”

      “I’m not turning anybody away — that would be unethical,” Dr. Jack Cassell, 56, a Mount Dora urologist and a registered Republican opposed to the health plan, told the Orlando Sentinel on Thursday. “But if they read the sign and turn the other way, so be it.”

      The sign reads: “If you voted for Obama…seek urologic care elsewhere. Changes to your healthcare begin right now, not in four years.”

    170. MD says:

      Wes,

      Not sure WTF is going on with that.

    171. Phil says:

      55 or 56 I meant to say.

    172. MD says:

      phil,

      The military would step in, remember?

    173. MD says:

      I just saw 3 minutes of a show called Sober House.

      WTF happened to Tom Sizemore? The guy is a friggin mess.

    174. Phil says:

      Yeah, the military.

      I wonder if our now long departed poster ever stopped to think who the actual commander in chief of that military was.

    175. Jan says:

      Tom Sizemore is an alcoholic.

    176. MD says:

      Polaris was right. The checks and balances are only effective if those in power respect them.

    177. MD says:

      Jan,

      Based on what I saw, I think he has other problems in addition to alcohol.

    178. Phil says:

      Haha

      Both Maine senators declined President Obama’s invitation to attend his events in Maine today.

    179. D QUIXOTE says:

      Food for thought:

      Social security was ruled legal many years ago. How would the personal mandate be any different??

    180. MD says:

      Completely different Quix. The mandate is an IC issue. SS is not. Sadly, 8 decades of mismanagement has doomed SS.

      It is nothing more than a compulsory savings program. Do you know if they had invested the last 8 decades with an allocation of just 40% to stocks, the plan would be solvent for at least 200 years.

      Yea, let’s trust the gov with 1/6 of our economy. They have done such a great job on everything else.

    181. MD says:

      Everytime I go on-line and read one of my paystubs, a rare occasion these days, I get upset.

      Thankfully, after this quarters bonus, I will have paid my full share of SS. I have already accepted that I might, if I am lucky, get 50% of what they are projecting.

    182. MD says:

      Well, at least my greatly reduced SS payout will give me booze money in my old age. The way we are going, I will need a lot of distractions.

    183. D QUIXOTE says:

      The mandate is an IC issue. SS is not

      MD

      If not, by what subterfuge did the use to justify the passage of soc sec, if not interstate comm.?? Nothing else would seem to fit 10th amend and all.

    184. MD says:

      Not the same because they can show a benefit with the payout. Still, I see your point. It is still compulsary.

      I am ashamed to say that Canada has managed their SS much better than us (especially over the last 15 years) and is in much better shape.

    185. D QUIXOTE says:

      Put another way, why can’t they use the same const. interp for both soc sec and HC mandate as justification??

      If the court can weasel word the legality for SS, why not for HC.

    186. D QUIXOTE says:

      Not the same because they can show a benefit with the payout.

      MD

      I still don’t see the constit. connection benefit or not. That arguement could be used to justify HC, as your “benefit” would be medical care.

    187. MD says:

      Quix,

      What defined benefit is accrued from Health Ins? Potentially none. The only way, in theory, that you don’t get at least a little back with SS is if you die. Then, you heirs can benefit.

      If I had my choice, I would have been given a choice to opt out of th esystem. Since it has been so grossly mismanaged, that will never be an option. Instead, they will double the rate just to keep the Ponzi scheme going.

      Don’t mean to cut short. Bedtime.

    188. MD says:

      Further, you are not technically buying SS. You are contributing even though I know it is forced. With Health Ins, you are potentially being forced to make a purchase. I honestly think it is much different than SS based on that but I still think we need to get rid of SS. I don’t want any misunderstanding of my position. We are a bit in the weeds on this.

    189. D QUIXOTE says:

      I understand, but receiving a benefit still shouldn’t justify the constitutionality of a thing.

    190. D QUIXOTE says:

      In either case I see no const. authority for either one,but I fear the precednet has been set.

    191. Diogenes says:

      People think that turnout will be as great for the Dems in 2012 as in 2008. It won’t be. We got crammed with Dem registration advantage stories in 2008. What do you think people are registering to vote as now? It certainly isn’t dem (even though it won’t be Republican either).

      In 2012 the college kids won’t care about the war anymore and will have nothign to rally around Obama on. They will be worried to death about getting a job. Also hispanics will no longer be out in force either.

      Only blacks will be elevated which won’t make a difference since they are located in states that lean one way or the other. And they won’t be as elevated as in 2008.

      If the Black vote increases by 20% but the GOP vote also increases by 20%, the difference is more than offset.

      Phil is such a pessimistic. I work in percentages. Even though I though McCain was 2 to 1 to 3 to 1 to lose, I still held in for that long shot.

      At 8% unemployment, I have Obama almost certain to lose. Americans are not stupid. Most econometric models predict results that are slightly pro-GOP (they ignore the bias of teh MSM).

      Bush aws suppose to get 57% of the vote in 2004 with a 6% economy. He only got 52%.

      No presidential candidate of an incumbent party with above 6% unemployment has been reelected in the last 50 years.

      Numbers are numbers, Obama is toast.

    192. Bunu says:

      “Bush aws suppose to get 57% of the vote in 2004 with a 6% economy. He only got 52%.”

      Based on whose models? It was 5.4 percent in 1996 and 4.0 in 2000. If something like that was the way it was supposed to be Clinton and Gore would have won with landslides.

    193. Diogenes says:

      My argument doesn’t preclude those wins.

      My argument is if the employment rate is higher than 6% then the incumbent party always loses during presidential years. It says nothing about what happens when employment is below that.

    194. Diogenes says:

      6% by around May to be exact. Bush Senior had a sub 6% unemployment rate after that point but perceptions about the economy defeated him (along with moribund campaigning).

    195. Bunu says:

      If you want a good model based on the economy read about the Fair model.

      http://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/vote2008/index2.htm

      It leaves out demographic changes and attitudes of “war time” though and other things that it model can’t compute.

    196. Bunu says:

      Fair got 2008 roughly correct.

      “The final economic values (“final” as of October 30, 2008) are 0.22 for GROWTH, 2.88 for INFLATION, and 3 for GOODNEWS. Given these values, the predicted Republican vote share (of the two-party vote) is 48.09 percent. So the prediction is 51.91 for the Democrats and 48.09 for the Republicans, for a spread of 3.82.
      The current situation is unusual in that the economy since the end of the third quarter appears to have gotten much worse. People may perceive the economy to be worse than the economic values through the third quarter indicate, which, other things being equal, suggests that the vote equation may overpredict the Republican share. But for what it is worth, the final vote prediction is 48.09 percent of the two-party vote for the Republicans. The Republican share of the two-party House vote is predicted to be 44.24 percent.”

    197. Diogenes says:

      Well there is a caveat to my declaration. Reagan had 7.2% unemployment in 1984 but the economy was recovering briskly and unemployment for the decade averaged 7.3% so expectations were slightly higher.

      The electorate since then has become use to 6% or lower unemployment and unemployment was around 6% when Obama was elected president so that will be the baseline for his 2012 campagin.

      Reagan’s mantra in 1980, “Are you better off than you were before Obama became president?” will become the mantra of any Republican candidate in 2012 and ring just as true.

    198. ???????? says:

      ???????, ???????? ?????????.