McCaskill Leads Akin By Double Digits, Plus NM and CT Polls

    Well Scott Rasmussen has come out with a new poll showing how badly Republicans in Missouri have botched this election and basically given away a US Senate seat.

    US SENATE – MISSOURI (Rasmussen)
    Claire McCaskill (D-inc) 48%
    Todd Akin (R) 38%

    This poll was done August 22nd among 500 likely voters. In New Mexico, the Republican candidate is actually closer to the lead than in Missouri.

    US SENATE – NEW MEXICO (Rasmussen)
    Martin Heinrich (D) 48%
    Heather Wilson (R) 41%

    This poll was done done August 21st among 500 likely voter.s Finally in Conencticut, Rasmussen is claiming Romney is within single digits of Obama.

    Barack Obama (D-inc) 51%
    Mitt Romney (R) 43%

    This poll was done August 21st among 500 likely voters.

    Posted by Dave at 1:38 pm
    Filed under: General | Comments (178)

    178 Responses to “McCaskill Leads Akin By Double Digits, Plus NM and CT Polls”

    1. Ice Cream Man says:


    2. jenny-GOD IS A DEMOCRAT! says:

      more blue polls!

    3. Polaris says:

      Maybe if Ras’ poll had come out a few days earlier, Akin would have done the right thing.


    4. Tim says:

      Akin lost 21 points in 4 days. Just unreal.

    5. Brandon says:

      Interesting. Eric Cantor won’t speak at the convention. Yeah, who needs high profile Jewish surrogates anyway.

    6. EML says:

      Here ya go Tommy J. Anyone can feel free to send him this on twitter.

      If using the 2010 tunrout model 34D 37R 29I, we get Romney 49 Obama 44 and McCaskill 46 Akin 42. Pissy Pants Jensen cooked the books for Akin.

    7. GF says:

      4- Tim, was Akin up 11? The last poll I recall was just before the primary which had brunner up 12, Steelman up 9 and Akin up only 5 (think it was Ras, but I don’t remember). Either way, it is a huge turnaround in no time flat.

      Gotta get this guy out of the way. Still praying that sanity prevails.

    8. DW says:

      3 – Akin would have stayed in regardless of the PPP(D) poll. The absense of any poll, and Akin would have just said there is no poll to show how I am doing, so I am staying in. He is the type.

    9. middle of the roader says:

      The media seems to get too caught up in the day to day news stories and daily poll releases.

      I think the two narratives that:

      A. The Akin thing is a big long-term deal on the national race


      B. That Ryan’s VP selection resulted in “no bounce”

      Both are incorrect.

      The Akin thing will blow over (save for Missouri, natch).
      There HAS been a noticeable 1 to 3 point ‘bounce’ from the Ryan selection. The RCP average was hovering around 4% and now is down to a 1.4% Romney deficit. And, the state polling has tightened up as well.

      Of course, the Convention will bring its own shift in the polling.

    10. Walt says:

      BECKLEY, W.Va. — Drug cases going back 15 months are being dismissed because the evidence is missing from the Beckley Police Department’s property room, Raleigh County officials said Wednesday.

      Prosecuting Attorney Kristen Keller told The Register-Herald that police notified her of the missing evidence and the first case was dismissed Wednesday.

      Evidence rooms serve as holding facilities for items such as money, drugs and guns obtained during investigations.

      Keller explained that once evidence control is compromised, the prosecutor’s office has no choice but to dismiss the charges.

    11. DW says:

      9 – And the potential hurricane has caused the media to repeatedly advertise for the GOP as to when the convention is starting up, so people will be more apt to tune in to see it.

    12. MFG says:

      Jenny broke in…!!!

    13. No Tribe says:

      This isn’t a 269-269 map, its a 270-268 one.

    14. akinmakesmepuke says:

      Akin looks like a resurrected zombie.
      Acts like one too.
      Amazing how some people are giving apologies for this loser!
      He Needs To Leave..

    15. MFG says:

      I think the Commumunists are going to turn their convention into DeadBabyPalooza and end up with a Wellstone Memorial 2.0 on their hands

    16. EML says:

      Todd Akin’s son on the Ras poll:

      The fact that Claire McCaskill is only polling at 48% after 72 hours of constant negative attacks on Todd Akin shows just how weak she is. If she can’t break fifty percent after a week like this, Democrats should ask Claire to step down. Todd is in this race to win; we will close this gap and win in November with the support of the grassroots in Missouri and across America.

      Completely delusional.

    17. Bitterlaw says:

      Breaking News – New owner of NBA team moving from Sacremento to Virginia Beach wears Beckley Police Department jacket to press conference.

    18. Hunter says:

      Really interesting read regarding the youth vote…

      Normally I would think “oh shyt” if these numbers are accurate…

      But in this case, I think a surge to Romney may be occurring…

      And it has NOTHING to do with abortion…

      It’s the economy that matters..

    19. MFG says:

      Why would youth support President FoodStamps?

      They will but why?

      Do they want to work at Burger Bunker for the rest of their lives?

    20. MFG says:

      They still think Bain Capital will work?

    21. Apologetic California says:

      18, LMAO, those docs are old as hell.

    22. SoHope says:

      The dems know that the Akin issue will stop being advantageous. They will soon pivot to Bain now that they leaked some documents.

    23. Wobbles says:

      More Akin, I just love this….

    24. Mr.Vito says:

      Deja vu… that weird sense you get when catching up on the end of the last thread and then reading the newer thread.

    25. Mr.Vito says:

      “18, LMAO, those docs are old as hell.”

      DrJay is not old! Sock it!

    26. hugh says:

      Unfortunately for obama he used bain to soon, people will not focus on that again. its complicated and no cares anymore except the obama lovers.

    27. hugh says:

      if all they have is romney co invested in a bain investment that would seem perfectly normal to me for a former ceo. Too bad the average person understands nothing about private equity, but who would expect them too even gingrich and rick apparently have no idea how they work.

    28. Michael says:

      Jensen is now whining about the VA senate poll, claiming it is boring writing up the VA senate report. That’s a hint for us, tells me that Allen might be winning.

    29. Mr.Vito says:

      Thought I’d throw this onto the pile of politicians with weird names…

    30. No Tribe says:

      No, just that its still tied in VA Sen. 46 each.

    31. GF says:

      Tommy says it’s tied up? Good; that means Allen will reprise his 2000 victory over Chuck Robb: 52-48.

      DW, what say you?

    32. MD says:

      D+7 in VA. Is that close to reality?

    33. Michael says:

      IDK minority voters won’t be poring in as much, but at the Mae time areas like Alexandria will be spilling over with liberals. At most I think it will be Dem +4

    34. Bitterlaw says:

      Great post, MD! GFY.

    35. MD says:

      Marv – if you are around, AZ 2 is going to be a tough one. I think the D’s retain that seat.

    36. EML says:

      Wow, what a spread

      37D 30R 33I D+7
      2008 was 39D 33R
      That’s right Pissy Pants, 2012 is going to be more Dem than 2008.

      Very liberal sample too.
      28L 32M 40C
      2008: 21L 46M 33C

    37. MD says:

      I also see a 52 – 48 Allen victory. Could be a little closer.

    38. EML says:

      Gallup has seen VA move from D+9 in 2008 to R+3 in 2012. Pissy Pants Polling flies in the face of that and also the 2009-2011 elections.

    39. Brandon says:

      They’re asking a different Ideology question than the exit poll, no? I think giving the option of “somewhat liberal” and “somewhat conservative” will have more people choosing those options than the basic “moderate” option.

    40. MD says:

      Hey Tommy. Why the re-weighting for MO and not for VA?

    41. DW says:

      34 D+7?

      a dem’s dream.

    42. Wobbles says:

      PPP is the gold standard next to Gallup a close second.

      Of course private polling is the best.

    43. MD says:

      Did a complete look at the House races last Sunday. Good news or bad news?

    44. Wobbles says:

      Tommy Jonson moans too much about his polls.

    45. DW says:

      33…Allen wins. He only barely lost six years ago in a big dem year and within the fallout of his gaffe.

    46. EML says:

      Pissy Pants Polling July poll of the VA Senate race was 46-44 Kaine and the sample was 33D 33R 34I. He had to shift DRI 7 points to the left just to manage a tie for Kaine. What a fraud.

    47. DW says: looks good for the GOP. I still am saying we actually increase the majority by a few seats.

    48. Marv says:

      #37 MD,

      Thanks for the info on AZ-02, but I’m not sure why you copied me on that. I live in FL.

    49. Surfnut says:

      The HHR Electoral College Watch needs to be updated to reflect the reality of the moment: Obama is winning by a comfortable margin.

    50. Michael says:

      @49 do you poll house races?

    51. Yolanda says:

      Can we get Newt to step in in MO?!

      I’m tired of looking at Akin’s face on my TV. Some Newt would be a *very* nice change of pace. [Fans self]

    52. DW says:

      Here again is the senate outlook:

      Safe R: WY UT MS TN NE TX AZ WI
      Likely R: ND IN MT
      Lean R: NV MA VA
      Lean D: CT OH FL NM
      Likely D: HI MI PA

      GOP 51
      Dem 49

      Some may object to WI being Safe R, but in truth, it is. Its not that Thompson is going to win by 17 points or something, but he just cannot do much worse than a solid 7 point win.

    53. Brandon says:

      On the same note, I think Rasmussen giving the option of “somewhat approve” also makes his approval rating sometimes a little higher than other polling.

    54. EML says:

      Allen leads with Indies 52-39. Using last months DRI with this months cross tabs, you get Allen 49% Kaine 43%.

    55. dylan says:

      Down by double digits–akin will double down and ask god for more help. Up in the polls—“see–no need to bail”. This guy aint leaving.

    56. jan says:

      Senate Ratings so far according to the polls:

      Likely and Lean Republican.

      North Dakota


      Likely and Lean Democrat
      New Mexico


    57. No Tribe says:

      59% of Virginia voters would be happy to pay 14 cents extra for a Papa John’s pizza so that the company’s employees can have health care to 22% who would be unwilling to. Even Republicans would by a 45/34 margin.

    58. DW says:

      Strategic Vision and Research2000 should be apologized to. They were run out of business on just 1/10th the baloney that PPP(D) is guilty of.

    59. Todd McCain says:

      It is impossible to outspend an incumbent president- newt gingrich

    60. Yolanda says:

      YolandaReports polls *every* House race, with a sample of at least 1000 in each district.

      Our latest polling shows that, in the wake of the Akin scandal, the GOP will lose every House seat except TX-24 (and that’s within the MOE). Most votes are listing “rape” as the #1 issue on their minds, and when we asked an open-ended question to allow voters to list what would make them most hesitant about voting for a Republican candidate, the number one response was, “I have a legitimate fear he’ll rape me.”

    61. todd says:

      Florida and Virginia will decide if there is a GOP majority or not.

    62. todd says:

      Sigh. Why did Senator Snowe have to retire?

    63. DW says:

      63…I believe OH will be very much in play before this is over. Only hope for MO is for one person to receive the first ever successful cranium implant.

    64. Addisonst's Akin Heart says:

      Is everybody aware that the current OMB director worked at Bain?

      I don’t see the Bain issue having much traction with true undecideds who are low info type.

      The tax return issue could still have some traction.

    65. Michael says:

      @63 so will HI, for once Hawaii will be important to the GOP, if something goes wrong in VA or FL that is really a last resort.

    66. GF says:

      Go Linda! She’s beating Murphy over the head with this;

      I see that the Huckster had doubled down and is going full bore for Akin. I can only imagine if he was the nominee right now…

    67. AuH2ORepublican says:

      #13, No Tribe, I posted several days ago that Dave’s HHR Electoral College Watch was undercounting Romney (and overcounting Obama) by 1 EV. It probably is due to the fact that Obama won one EV from NE in 2008 (since he barely carried the Omaha-based CD) and Dave is keeping that EV in the Obama column until there’s a poll of that specific EV showing it going to Romney. Whether it’s polled or not, nobody believes that Obama possibly can carry a CD in NE this year, so if the states go down the way they are in the HHR Electoral College Watch (Romney picking up IN, FL, OH, IA, WI and MI, but Obama holding VA and (snort) NC), then Romney indeed would win by a 270-268 margin.

    68. Marv says:

      #63 todd,

      If the GOP looses FL and VA, the Senate will be 51 GOP, 48 Dem, 1 Ind (caucus with Dems).

      Given recent polling, a reasonable assumption would be, 53 GOP, 46 Dem, 1 Ind. FL and VA look to be trending GOP.

    69. GF says:

      Sigh. Why did Senator Snowe have to retire?

      Comment by todd — August 23, 2012 @ 3:03 pm

      Because some dead enders thought it would be better to harass her and hand the seat over to a de facto Dem instead of putting up with her a bit longer.

    70. Marv says:

      #67 Michael,

      Lingle in HI would be a serious stretch. She was a fairly popular Governor, but the Obama factor is weighing heavily on her candidacy. A blowout Romney win on the mainland wherein VA, FL, NC, WI and IA are called early, could perhaps give Lingle a better shot.

    71. Hunter says:

      At a Chil Fil A and this very nice manager came over and asked me if I needed a refresh on my drink and could she take my tray…


      The wonders of a well-run company…

      I’ll be coming back…

      Wonder if I’ll receive the same customer service at the DMV?…

    72. Marv says:


      I think that the Captain of the USS The Sullivans got screwed.

    73. Bill says:

      Not yet they have lost it. Eamil akin at is campaign ste and his congressional office and tell him to drop out. he can still do though it will be alittle harder.

    74. Mose says:

      One more note about the PPP VA poll. They had Gov. McDonnell’s approval at 48%. No pollster besides PPP has had McDonnell’s approval rating lower than 53% in 2012 (polls from Ras, Quin, Wash. Post, Christopher Newport, Mason-Dixon, and Roanoke). Just something to keep in mind.

    75. Jenny's BLUE POLLS! says:


    76. jan says:

      The Maine seat counts has a lost so the GOP starts with 46 seats instead of 47.

    77. Jenny's BLUE POLLS! says:

      NV! NM! WI!


    78. Wobbles says:

      As a Democrat, I’m concerned about PPP polls.

    79. NYCmike (Bronxie) says:

      “Because some dead enders thought it would be better to harass her and hand the seat over to a de facto Dem instead of putting up with her a bit longer.”

      Would a United States Senator really leave because people complained she was too much of a RINO? I think she had enough, has enough money, had cast her historic vote to get Obamacare out of conference. Didn’t she also vote for the Stimulus bill which accomplished nothing except bail-out municipal and teacher unions? I don’t think you can blame her leaving on so-called dead-enders.

    80. jan says:

      Huckabbob really is hurting himself. Fox should cancel his show. He is done has an influential Republican leader.

    81. Jenny's BLUE POLLS! says:

      Keep ignoring the blue tidal wave!

    82. GF says:

      Hey, Bronxie! 🙂

      My feeling is that Snowe was all in for another term (she WAS running), but got tired of the cr@p she was consistently taking and looked ahead into a theoretical GOP Senate dominated by people who didn’t care for her brand of politics. One can say that Senators are all pompous and don’t care what other people think, but having met her, I can say she is a genuine down to eath woman who probably lacked the patience to deal with the dead enders any longer. Why stick around just so you can be pilloried on talk radio and Jim DeMint?

      Out to lunch; back later.

    83. NYCmike (Bronxie) says:

      82.jan says:
      August 23, 2012 at 3:21 pm
      Huckabbob really is hurting himself. Fox should cancel his show. He is done has an influential Republican leader.

      -Has he informed his listeners that Steeleman, Brunner, or ANY other Republican chosen to replace Akinbacon will be just as Pro-Life? What a smooth-talking shyster, just like his fellow Arkansas buddy, Bubba Clinton.

    84. Ben Romney says:

      PRESIDENT – FLORIDA (Quinnipiac): Obama: 47/48 my numbers: 43.9/51.7
      Barack Obama (D-inc) 49%
      Mitt Romney (R) 46%
      my numbers: Romney/Obama: 49.2/46.4
      their sample is D+6 in 2008 it was D+3 for 2012 I have it R+2

      PRESIDENT – OHIO (Quinnipiac): Obama: 49/48 my numbers:46.9/50.7
      Barack Obama (D-inc) 50%
      Mitt Romney (R) 44%
      my numbers: Obama/Romney: 48/47.9
      they used the same party IDlike 2008: D+8 imo it will be D+1

      PRESIDENT – WISCONSIN (Quinnipiac): Obama:46/49
      Barack Obama (D-inc) 49%
      Mitt Romney (R) 47%
      my numbers: Obama/Romney: 48.9/48.3
      in 2008 it was D+6 now they have it D+4 imo it`s D+1 or D+2 they also found 98% of D`s backing The Obumbler in 2008 he gotten 95% I used it but I doubt it!

      US SENATE – FLORIDA (Quinnipiac)
      Bill Nelson (D-inc) 50%
      Connie Mack (R) 41%
      my numbers: Nelson/Mack: 48.5/43.7

      US SENATE – OHIO (Quinnipiac)
      Sherrod Brown (D-inc) 48%
      Josh Mandel (R) 41%
      my numbers: Brown/Mandel: 47/43.7

      US SENATE – WISCONSIN (Quinnipiac)
      Tommy Thompson (R) 50%
      Tammy Baldwin (D) 44%
      my numbers: Thompson/Baldwin: 51.7/44.9


    85. NYCmike (Bronxie) says:

      If you met her personally, I bow to your judgment.

    86. Mr.Vito says:

      “Sigh. Why did Senator Snowe have to retire?”

      To send a message.

    87. jan says:

      The good thing is that Crossroads and other SuperPacs are going all in in Florida.

      Nelson can’t count on crossover support anymore. if Obama loses Florida he will also lose.

    88. Walt says:

      Mr. Vito,

      I am doing laundry (among other things). The socks go in with the next (and last) load.

      Any last minute advice for your WV distant cloth relatives?

    89. jan says:

      In Ohio to catch Brown I think we are gonna have to trip up Sherrod. Not sure how.

    90. Walt says:


      I am working on a draft letter to mail to voters.

      Best I am able to do is a 3-page tome.

      So much to tell about why people whould vote for me.
      Ones I did before I wrote in first person, this one is in 3rd person.

    91. Walt says:

      I am off to MOW, you fo’s.

    92. Mr.Vito says:

      “Any last minute advice for your WV distant cloth relatives?”

      Wha? My WV sock cousins told me they don’t do laundry there. Tell them to stay away from the agitator and bras with hooks in the dryer. Also, tell them to steer clear of your underpants…

      Finally, if they see a light in the tunnel, don’t follow the light… that is the wormhole that your missing socks get sucked through.

    93. DW says:

      91…not really. This race is a MoE tossup. Look at the pollsters that matter:

    94. jan says:

      Let’s hope with Missouri gone we need to expand the map to reach 51.

    95. HHR Translator says:

      Statement: “Look at the pollsters that matter:”

      Translation: “Look at the pollsters that show what I want them to show”

    96. Mr.Vito says:

      Interesting that the OH Senate race is one where Ras polling has been pretty consistent.

    97. Annie says:

      Re #16 – That’s the problem with Akin – he takes the advice of his family and the deluded ultra-Evangelical types. They all think they are the chosen of God, and that if they just pray hard enough, they can defeat a sitting senator, albeit a weak one. Just nutsy thinking…but what can anyone do? They don’t listen to logic or pleading from the GOP.

    98. jan says:

      The number of times “Todd Akin” has been mentioned since August 20…

      …on Fox News: 78

      …on CNN: 197

      …on MSNBC: 325

      Data according to the TVEyes database.

    99. Marv says:

      Somebody will defeat McCaskill in Nov. I think this whole Akin affair is starting to sort itself out.

    100. DW says:

      97…no, just the pollsters that are doing honest work. Juicing your sample to D+ a rediculous number is nothing more than garbage in garbage out. There is a long history of this nonsense. I posted an example earlier today. Quinnipiac showed Bush losing FL to Kerry in 2004 41/47!

      If a poll has a reasonable sample D/R/I and it is likely voter, then it deserves attention….regardless whether or not I like the results.

      But just because some pollster serves me feces doesn’t mean I am required to eat it.

    101. Mr.Vito says:

      Number of times Todd Akin has been mentioned on HHR since August 20:


      Geez, man, maybe I will watch some MSNBC so I can stop hearing about Todd Akin.

    102. jan says:

      Its ridiculous that a candidate can not be removed, retroactively under state law. If a candidate were to go crazy or commit a crime during a campaign and refuse to drop out the party would be stuck with him. Like we are stuck with the nutbag.

    103. Annie says:

      Re #85 – The possible replacements might be just as pro-life, but they would most probably not be as DUMB. That is the big problem with Akin – not his pro-life stance, the fact that he said a “woman’s body can shut down” pregnancy in cases of “legitimate rape.” Perhaps Huckabee just was trying to reassure pro-lifers that they could support a replacement? I didn’t hear the statement by Huckabee.

    104. jan says:

      Somebody will defeat McCaskill in Nov. I think this whole Akin affair is starting to sort itself out.

      Comment by Marv — August 23, 2012 @ 3:54 pm

      Did you read Huckaboobo’s letter?

    105. HHR Translator says:

      Statement: “But just because some pollster serves me feces doesn’t mean I am required to eat it.”

      Translation: “But in 2008 I held on until the very end because some poster named Polaris fed me feces and I ate it up like a good little sheep.”

    106. Bill says:

      tell akin to get out here is his web site and email

    107. Annie says:

      DW – I remember early on election day that the media had said Kerry was winning Florida based on exit polling, too – like, shouldn’t they have learned their lesson from 2000? I was in a real doldrum after those announcements for most of election day. Anyway – Kerry was being called “Mr. President” by his staffers on his campaign plane in the afternoon, and told he’d lost by dinner.

    108. Marv says:

      #106 jan,

      No, I didn’t read Huck’s letter. I’ve been off the site for awhile watching the golf tournament on The Golf Channel.

      What is your summation of the Huck letter?

    109. todd says:

      You gotta hit Huckabee were it hurt and that is in the pocketbook. Boycott his shows. Call Fox saying he needs to be canceled.

    110. jan says:

      Mitt Romney ad swayed independents

      Romney needs to continue to go after the character of Obama. It’s working.

    111. “But in 2008 I held on until the very end because some poster named Polaris fed me feces and I ate it up like a good little sheep.”

      FACT: in 2008 both Ras & Gallup found a Dem electorate not seen in decades was setting itself up in Nov, people who thought it wouldn’t happen were not looking at their findings

      FACT: Now in 2012, both Ras & Gallup are finding a more even electorate w/ higher enthusiasm among Rs even w/ pollsters wanting to poll an even larger Dem electorate then happened in 08.

      FACT: Comparing Nov 2008 poll questioning to Aug 2012 poll questioning makes you an utter tool looking to start crap

    112. COD says:

      Geez, man, maybe I will watch some MSNBC so I can stop hearing about Todd Akin.

      Comment by Mr.Vito

      Can you guys leave me alone now? I sent my Ad Wizard to Akin. Look for his “I’m not a rapist” ad any day now.

    113. seriously I’m sick and tired of these trolls trotting out the “you guys were in denial in 08!” line. In 08 the studies/polls showed us a Dem heavy electorate was going to come out. We were in denial about that. Today, these same studies/polls show that it’s a more even electorate. the only ones in denial seem to be the trolls who are fantasizing about it being Nov 2008.

    114. SusyQue says:

      #111…Huckabee has done a lot of good for the Republicans in this race for the presidency. I admire and respect him. I don’t agree with everything he suggests or believes, but he is a definite plus.
      He is articulate and relates well with the folks. He has strong family values and I admire that. Three cheers for Huck! Rah-Rah-Rah!

    115. HHR Translator says:

      Statement: “seriously I’m sick and tired of these trolls trotting out the “you guys were in denial in 08!” line”

      Translation: “I wasn’t here in 2008, but I will continue to spout my mouth off like I know exactly what went on at HHR in 2008. I don’t need no stinkin’ facts!”

    116. Brandon says:

      Susy, STFU. No one cares.

    117. SusyQue says:

      Polaris is not God. He tried his best to research the facts he needed to make a prediction. He ended up being wrong, but I would say millions were stunned when ooo won the election. I never liked ooo from the beginning. He was all hot air and he is still that way.

    118. jan says:

      #111…Huckabee has done a lot of good for the Republicans in this race for the presidency.

      Comment by SusyQue — August 23, 2012 @ 4:12 pm

      Stop be delusional sweetheart. The guy is screwing the party right now.

    119. Brandon says:

      “I would say millions were stunned when ooo won the election.”

      Then our country is full of idiots then. It was painstakingly obvious he was going to win for a while before the election.

    120. Ian Polaris says:

      Polaris is not God.

      That hurt, SusyQue.

      – Ian Polaris

    121. @118 GFY prick. You still haven’t refuted the 2 diff findings on the electorate.

    122. Mike M says:

      Folks- keep in mind a couple of quick points on the presidential race. Not only is Obama facing incredible odds to be re-elected when 75% of the country thinks we’re heading in the wrong direction, but he would also have to overcome historical odds- we haven’t had three consecutive two-term Presidents since Jefferson, Madison, and Monroe….

    123. MD says:

      So, I looked at the House races entirely. The good news is that we are picking up a couple of seats as gifts. The one in CA and OK2. Also, many of the races that could have been close if Obama really was going to win by a PPP like margin won’t be close since that isn’t going to happen. CD’s like PA 6 and 7 are now rock solid safe.

      The bad news though is that, in the aggregate, the new maps don’t favor us (looking at the whole picture – not just a single state) so we make no gains. Again, in the aggregate. I get that the D’s are losing a seat in some states and that we will do well in NC.

      I won’t bore everyone with the details but I think a Dem gain of 7 to 11 is (imo) a 95% possibility. Some of the seats we took in 10 will revert. There were many close races. The increased turnout will not favor us.

      Good news – not even close to a majority for the D’s and it will probably swing our way again in 14. To what extent I really don’t know.

    124. true Mike M. one of the reasons i’m so optimistic about this race is because History says we’ll win. However their are outliers in History and we should be cautious and ready for defeat if it comes.

    125. Brandon says:

      Whoa, whoa. Haven’t the A-holes trademarked “GFY”? If we haven’t, why the hell haven’t we?

    126. DW says:

      107…you are full of it. McCain didn’t lose in 2008 in August. He lost after several late blunders. And there is a huge difference between hoping Polaris was right–that ALL polls were wrong, including Rasmussen, and looking now in 2012 at so called polls that suggest the Dems are going to turn out in greater numbers in 2012 than they did in 2008.

    127. i’ve been saying GFY to several people. haven’t been told anything yet.

    128. MD says:

      Susy – WTF???? Three cheers? Here you go:


    129. MD says:

      Brandon – for the internet, we only controlled the phrase for 1 full year. We got the rights on August 13, a day after the glory. So, others are now free to use it. This was covered in the last legal meeting. You were too busy having fun or something.

    130. Ive also been using “prick” a lot since Tim used that one on me.

    131. Mr.Vito says:

      “HHR Translator”



    132. Ben Romney says:

      University of Cincinnati Ohio Poll

      Obama: 49%
      Romney: 46%
      my numbers: Romney/Obama: 48.4/46.8

      Brown: 48%
      Mandel: 47%
      my numbers: Mandel/Brown: 47.9/47.2

    133. todd says:

      I have the House majority at 234 MD.

    134. Bitterlaw says:

      If we haven’t, why the hell haven’t we?

      Comment by Brandon

      Brandon – I never applied to copyright “GFY” as the first confirmed usage of the term was by Maxwell on August 12, 2011. It was posted as a gift to HHR and it would be difficult to assert legal title to it now.

    135. janz says:

      #108 Bill

      Thanks for providing the link to Akin’s web site. I sent him a note. Every little bit helps, IMO. I would recommend everyone here do the same. Put your complaints in writing to the guy!

    136. DW says:

      MD – I have a completely different read on the house races. The Dems in IL may have bit off more than they can chew and won’t likely get the four flips they were hoping for. They may get only two. As I look up and down the grid, I just don’t see where they can make up enough ground for any sort of gains.

      Here is my grid showing only those states that will have a change in the bottom line:

      Current: R 242 / D 193
      Predict: R 249 / D 186

      AR Now: R 3/D 1 | New: R 4/D 0 | Net: R 1/D -1
      AZ Now: R 5/D 3 | New: R 5/D 4 | Net: R 0/D 1
      FL Now: R 19/D 6 | New: R 19/D 8 | Net: R 0/D 2
      GA Now: R 8/D 5 | New: R 10/D 4 | Net: R 2/D -1
      IA Now: R 2/D 3 | New: R 2/D 2 | Net: R 0/D -1
      IL Now: R 11/D 8 | New: R 8/D 10 | Net: R -3/D 2
      IN Now: R 6/D 3 | New: R 7/D 2 | Net: R 1/D -1
      LA Now: R 6/D 1 | New: R 5/D 1 | Net: R -1/D 0
      MA Now: R 0/D 10 | New: R 0/D 9 | Net: R 0/D -1
      MD Now: R 2/D 6 | New: R 1/D 7 | Net: R -1/D 1
      MI Now: R 9/D 6 | New: R 9/D 5 | Net: R 0/D -1
      MO Now: R 6/D 3 | New: R 6/D 2 | Net: R 0/D -1
      NC Now: R 6/D 7 | New: R 10/D 3 | Net: R 4/D -4
      NV Now: R 2/D 1 | New: R 3/D 1 | Net: R 1/D 0
      NY Now: R8/D21 | New: R7/D20 | Net: R -1/D -1
      OH Now: R13/D5 | New: R12/D4 | Net: R -1/D -1
      OK Now: R 4/D 1 | New: R 5/D 0 | Net: R 1/D -1
      PA Now: R 12/D 7 | New: R 12/D 6 | Net: R 0/D -1
      SC Now: R 5/D 1 | New: R 6/D 1 | Net: R 1/D 0
      TX Now: R 23/D 9 | New: R 25/D 11 | Net: R 2/D 2
      UT Now: R 2/D 1 | New: R 3/D 1 | Net: R 1/D 0
      WA Now: R 4/D 5 | New: R 4/D 6 | Net: R 0/D 1

      And on this grid the GOP still has room to grow.

    137. MD says:

      Yes you did Bitter!!! See above. Am I the only one paying attention in these meetings? Since I gave up drinking the grey, not much gets passed me anymore.

    138. Bitterlaw says:

      I was typing the GFY explanation before I saw MD’s post. He botched some of the legal principles but he essentially got the result correct. Ever since he stopped drinking Goose, he actually pays attention at the meetings.

    139. MD says:

      139 – DW

      Just differing opinions. I think you are too optimistic on some of those states. I think it is almost statistically impossible for the GOP to have any additional net gains in the House unless the race really becomes a blowout like Pitch predicts.

    140. Bitterlaw says:

      MD – The “application” was a yellow piece of paper stamped “Really F’ing Important Document.” It was so easy sliding things past you when the Goose was loose. Our expense reports were approved more easily, too. $400 per month for parking when we own our our own parking lot? No problem.

    141. MD says:

      The party is over. We are getting the house in order so the aholes can sustain our domination for decades to come.

    142. Phil says:

      Losing that very winnable governor’s race in Ill costs us 3 seats there.

    143. Mr.Vito says:

      We have a frickin lot?

      Why do a keep having to park the sockmobile and the gartercycle in the shed?

    144. Phil says:

      Akin’s a dumbass. I haven’t said that for a couple of hours. Stupid primary electorate. F n evangelicals. Idiots.

      What a stupid party.

    145. DW says:

      142–I have specific calls for each of the numbers I show. I have a spreadsheet showing who I forecast will win and lose each race. Which state in particular do you think I have been overly optimistic? I will gladly paste the results I have for the state.

      Of course a few states still need to do their primaries (like AZ) so my grid will change as these finish.

      But for instance, here is my breakdown on PA:

      Dems win 1, 2, 12, 13, 14, 17
      GOP wins 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 15, 16, 18

      Cook Sabato and Rothenberg agree with my picks on PA. The GOP could take 12, but I have it in the D column right now.

      But what do I have wrong here in PA or which other state would you like to see my breakdown?

    146. Mr.Vito says:

      Nevermind… I forgot Bitter can barely see. He would probably run them over.

    147. MD says:

      Agree 100% on PA actually.

    148. NYCmike (Bronxie) says:


      Most people knew Obama was going to win.
      Huckabee is the salesman/con man from Oklahoma!

    149. rdelbov says:

      DW #139

      we are so close. There are some really tough races.

      NV4 like you I smell an upset.

      CA41 or CA9 or CA3 or CA16–call me crazy, MD already has, but I smell an upset brewing in a CA seat. So sweet if the GOP got to 20!!!

      I see tremedous apathy on the D side in NY. Cuomo is very popular but why do anything for Obama or Gillibrand or NY D state senator in 2012? All the energy is on the GOP side. So I see Turner and Holschul going down but maybe Buerkle hangs on? That last D internal poll was less then super. Plus the I see Bishop and Owen really struggling to hold their seats. So maybe +1R or better?

      RI1 and MA6 are D incumbent disasters waiting to happen? We snag one there.

      Finally WA1 Koster 45% and Rural D democrat (Hobbs) got 7%. I think 52% R is closer to what the actual vote was in August. I do not rule out this seat.

    150. DW says:

      150…I am relieved! I wouldn’t want to disagree with you on PA.

      here is my NY breakdown:

      GOP wins: 2, 11, 18, 19, 22, 23, 27
      Dems win: all the rest obviously.

      Cook, Sabato and Rothenberg agree with my picks if you push their leans and tilts in the direction they are going. Some of them have 18, 19 and 27 as tossups, but I believe the GOP will hold them. They have 21 as a tossup, but I put it in the D column. They have 24 as lean D (buerkle seat) and I have it in the D column, but she may very well hold on for the GOP.

    151. DW says:

      152 – I have CA as a wash in the house. But as you point out there could be some surprises. Especially if the dems give up voting late in the day if Obama is already known to be a national loser.

    152. MD says:

      DW – I have 18 and 19 as D flips in NY. Also 24 would be a flip. Obama is up 25 in the polls. All these races could be close but factoring in a higher turnout puts the D’s over the top in all 3 imo UNLESS Pitch’s scenario (which I find to be highly unlikley) actually happens.

    153. MD says:

      I haven’t decided on 27 yet to be honest but I gave a slight r lean.

      In cal, we got the one gift. However, I think we could see 2 other seats flip. 7 and 52 are suspects because of the new maps.

    154. MD says:

      152 – +1 in NY? Really?

    155. Mr.Vito says:

      One thing about 2010 is that some of the blue states and purple states out west were really stubborn in yielding house seats… there has been further eroding of Dem party ID since then… so you might see an upset or two in say OR, IA, CO, NV, etc.

    156. Scott says:

      bio mom
      I surmise that the reason that Gallup changed toward Obama today after consistency for over a week is that yesterday the Administration announced that it was suing Gallup for overbilling.

    157. jan says:

      PA will be close the stink the Democrats are making about the i.d law is not for no good reason. I suspect PA will be has close has it was in 2004. A 2 or 3 point Obama margin in the state.

    158. Michael says:

      @153 yes, Buerkle might get a strong enough plurality, the green party i have read after seeing a previous internal poll is contesting the seat, heavily. The green party member could spoil the election for Maffii by taking 2-7% that is enough to cause serious damage to the former congressmans campaign, after that Buekle will have an advantage of being a four year congresswomen. Doesn’t mean she will win, but ipthe feeling will sink into the voters tht she is a “good” person for sticking round so long.

    159. Michael says:

      @158 especially Schrader in Oregon, he doesn’t know it yet but he is seriously vulnerable.

    160. MD says:

      I wish things would have turned out the way they would have if it hadn’t been for the stupid rules in FL and TX. We should have cleaned up there. Instead I think TX is a wash and FL could potentially be a -1. Seeing Grayson back in the House will make me ill. I know he has a Puerto Rican challenger but it is such a D district now that I think the deficit cannot be overcome.

    161. Scott says:

      By the way,the USC/LA Times national poll showing Obama ahead 48% to 46% among likely voters is a D+6 in Party ID and was conducted by Stan Greenberg,a Democrat pollster.

    162. bio mom says:


      Hope that is not the reason. But it is a consideration. And thank you for your post. Respectful, unlike chem dad.

    163. Michael says:

      I also believe Tarkainain will pull off an upset in NV-4 it is rted as lean dem, but the geography looks more enticing to a republican

    164. MD says:

      160 – Jan

      They seem to be shifting gears on that issue. Now the focus is to get them ID’s. Funny how a little internal polling on the issue shifted their thought process.

    165. Scott says:

      Just about all national and swing State polls show Romney ahead with Independents. The exception seems to be Pa. Why?

    166. rdelbov says:

      I will out this evening so lets do layoffs!!!

      170 workers in CT at UTC defense contractor:

      Autodesk is cutting jobs and the numbers are uncertain:

      Developing story is Super Valu:

      The company could be sold or could be heading to chapter 11–142K employees.

      One might ask why is 1st time claims still low at 372K? To an extent there is a 30-60 day delay between telling people they are laid off and failing a claim. Yet those in the know realize the economy is tanking and fast.

    167. DW says:

      155…I grew up in rural NY state. In many of these places it is still quite conservative. I was all alone sticking up for NY GOP hopes in the house races of 2010. And they delivered the greatest number of flips of any state. I agree with Rdelbov that there is a lot of rural dem apathy in NY state and the GOP will hold on and do well enough for an even wash (each party losing one seat to the census).

      of the contested seats in NY, here is the breakdown of how the district voted in 2008 potus election, recalculated after the redistricting:

      Seat – McCain / Obama
      01 – 48/51 – I have it D right now
      11 – 51/48 – I have it R
      18 – 47/52 – I have it R
      19 – 45/53 – I have it R on good polling
      21 – 47/52 – I have it D as a hedge
      22 – 49/49 – I have it R
      23 – 49/50 – I have it R
      24 – 42/56 – I have it D
      27 – 54/44 – I have it R

    168. MD says:

      55D to 45R in NV 4 now. I think Tark will make it closer than that but I have the D’s winning. Horsford is well known there. It will be close.

    169. Walt says:

      New Thread, buckaroos.

    170. DW says:

      we just had a NV poll of district 4 and Tark was up big – was an R internal, but still.

    171. Bitterlaw says:

      MD – Maybe Castille pulled a gun when they tried to get him to vote to strike down the Photo ID law.

    172. rdelbov says:

      Scott and yes not every LV is created equal. Gallup and RAS see the USA as about +2D while Greenberg has it at +4D.

      LV, except for Gallup and RAS, polls can be trash. You can poll all the likely voters in OH that you want, like Quinnie did, but if you find the breakdown for your poll is 42%D its still trash.

    173. MD says:

      I disagree with you slightly. I think all 3 (18,19 and 24) will be close but will flip.

      In 10, I was extremely positive on the house races in NY. For 18 and 19 though, I could reconsider and flip them back. Nothing is set in stone.

      Today, I have it as D +7 to D +11. That isn’t awful at all and I had it slightly worse a few months back. Hopefully, I can find reason for additional optimism and decrease those numbers.

    174. MD says:

      173 – DW

      Hard for me to believe that (it is an internal) given the composition of the CD and that fully 1/3rd is Latino.

    175. SusyQue says:

      #131….MD…I have a right to express my opinion.

      P.S. Your are one crude dude!
      I return your boorish vulgarness via cut and paste, I have no desire to touch your filthy verbal ejaculation.