2020 EV WATCH
Trump : 186
Biden : 352
Click here

2020 SENATE WATCH
GOP : 47
DEM : 51
IND : 2
Click here

EGO BOOST
GALLUP
AMERICAN RESEARCH GROUP
PUBLIC POLICY POLLING
RASMUSSEN REPORTS
    Search

    Biden Leads Trump in Two Polls in NC, Two Polls in AZ and One Poll in FL

    Catching up on the polls from earlier today, starting with Arizona and the new poll from Monmouth University.

    PRESIDENT – ARIZONA (Monmouth)
    Joe Biden (D) 48%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 44%

    US SENATE – ARIZONA (Monmouth)
    Mark Kelly (D) 50%
    Martha McSally (R-inc) 44%

    This poll was done September 11-15 among 420 registered voters. In a poll that was released this morning for the Kaiser Family Foundation and Cook Political Report, we also get new numbers for Arizona along with numbers for North Carolina and Florida.

    PRESIDENT – ARIZONA (KFF/Cook)
    Joe Biden (D) 45%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 40%

    PRESIDENT – FLORIDA (KFF/Cook)
    Joe Biden (D) 43%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 42%

    PRESIDENT – NORTH CAROLINA (KFF/Cook)
    Joe Biden (D) 45%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 43%

    US SENATE – ARIZONA (KFF/Cook)
    Mark Kelly (D) 50%
    Martha McSally (R-inc) 44%

    US SENATE – NORTH CAROLINA (KFF/Cook)
    Cal Cunningham (D) 41%
    Thom Tillis (R-inc) 37%

    These polls were done August 29-September 13 among registered voters in each state. Finally, one more poll from North Carolina and Suffolk University.

    PRESIDENT – NORTH CAROLINA (Suffolk)
    Joe Biden (D) 47%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 43%

    US SENATE – NORTH CAROLINA (Suffolk)
    Cal Cunningham (D) 42%
    Thom Tillis (R-inc) 38%

    This poll was done September 11-14 among 500 likely voters.

    Posted by Dave at 11:14 pm
    Filed under: General | Comments (59)

    59 Responses to “Biden Leads Trump in Two Polls in NC, Two Polls in AZ and One Poll in FL”

    1. Tina says:

      Abigail Marone
      @abigailmarone
      · 1h
      “Chickens. Chicken and chick-poultry and all what is all the all the manure quite frankly that is a consequence of chickens.“

      https://twitter.com/abigailmarone/status/1306770583473000455

    2. Tgca says:

      Dos Bebe! Dos!

    3. Justin says:

      Re Arizona

      Someone help me understand what is going on out there. Trump seems to be consistently polling better among Hispanics than he did 4 years ago by 10 points or so. Why isn’t that translating to a more comfortable lead in a state he won in 2016 and where Hispanics make up 1/3 of the population.

    4. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      The polls were of registered voters. If it was likely voters the polls might have been even closer. At this point the presidential race is too close to call. Still see predicting who will win as a coin flip.

    5. MichiganGuy says:

      I don’t think it will be even close. The polls are garbage. Unless you really believe the dems will have a D+8 or more advantage. As confused Joe would say C’mon man.
      .
      https://youtu.be/mTtlu84DGTo

    6. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      A certain self-righteous senator from Utah apparently does not carry much weight in his adopted state according to a Deseret News/Hinckley Institute poll. Among 1,000 Utah likely voters

      Presidential Race:
      53% Trump
      35% Biden
      5% Jorgensen
      6% Not Sure

      Trump job approval: 56%

      Believe they are better off than last year
      56% Yes
      34% No
      10% Not Sure

      Believe County better off than last year
      42% Yes
      50% No
      8% Not Sure

      Approval of Trump’s handling of the COVID-19 epidemic

      56% Approval
      43% Disapprove
      1% Unsure

      One study indicated that Utah had the second fewest coronvirus restrictions of any state. It also has a low coronavirus death rate. I refer to my trips there twice a month as my prison break from California.

    7. MichiganGuy says:

      This guy must really love Trump. LOL
      .
      https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10157964561808323&id=619313322&extid=uaXCzN5cdbE1OpaS
      .
      Praying for all those that got hit by Hurricane Sally.

    8. Sheeple,Jr. says:

      New day and a new set of Polls. To wit:
      NYT/Siena
      AZ Biden +9,
      ME Biden +17
      NC Biden +1

      Senate- AZ- McSally(R) down 8
      ME- Collins(R) down 5
      NC- Tillis (R) down 5

      MI(Epic-MRA) Biden +8 and James(R) senate down 4.

      https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

    9. Sheeple,Jr. says:

      #9
      A few additions and thoughts to #9:
      1- The ME CD-2 race is Biden +2
      2- Epic is a Dem. friendly pollster. It’s last two State polls had The Donald -11 and -16.
      3- James has a real shot at the MI Senate seat
      4- In the NC Senate race, the percent of GOP Undecideds is 12% to Dems. 5%. If the GOP voters “come home”, Tillis should squeak by.

    10. SweatyToothedMadman says:

      This hand-wringing over unsurprising decisions re: mail-in balloting – most recently PA and MI – is beyond tedious. The GOP needs to dispense with the whining and start cheating hammer and tong w/ the Dems. After all, the Dems don’t have exclusive rights to voting by mail, harvesting ballots, etc. Given their organizational resources, the GOP should be able to hang w/ the Dems. If the election descends into a protracted mess, the GOP will have allowed itself to be outplayed on GOTV.

    11. Scooterboy says:

      The Sienna NC poll has Trump only getting 2% of the AA vote. Trash it. They are just making chit up.

    12. Waingro says:

      #9, those NYT polls are ugly. That James number is one bright news from poll dump today. Is he really running ahead of Trump? That could be CRUCIAL for possibly getting him over the finish line, as I see Trump falling just a bit short in MI.

    13. PhilS says:

      It is amusing to see the bed-wetters here reacting to liberal polls.

    14. Scooterboy says:

      Trump must be way up in RAS today.

      Reader Alert:

      The last time @POTUS daily job approval % reached today’s level, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi held a press conference & announced a house impeachment inquiry.

    15. Tina says:

      Profile photo, opens profile page on Twitter in a new tab
      Elizabeth Landers
      @ElizLanders
      Do you believe Russia is an enemy?

      @JoeBiden: “I believe Russia is an opponent, I really do.”

      Do you believe China is an opponent?

      Biden (after being asked twice): “I view China as a competitor, a serious competitor.”
      6:05 PM · Sep 17, 2020

    16. Sean says:

      Scooter – means trump is at 53% today.

    17. dblaikie says:

      It astounds me the number of folks who take these polls seriously. Where Donald Trump is concerned why would anyone believe something commissioned by the NYT?

      The truth is the polling Industry has not only failed here but in Israel and especially in the U.K. Just to remember just before the UK election the “highly regarded” You Gov poll showed a tightening of the race with the possibility of a hung Parliament. Instead the Conservatives won in a historic blowout.

      Go ahead and be influenced by these polls commissioned by organizations that despise Trump. But count me out.

    18. Sheeple,Jr. says:

      #20-dk
      As for this election cycles polling, it appears that pollsters, willfully or not, learned nothing from their dismal performances in 2016.
      As my guru, Yogi Berra, would say; “It’s Deja Vue all over again!”

    19. Country Dick Montana says:

      So, Woodward is saying that Trump may not leave the WH if he loses and has undermined trust in the electoral process.

      These people are just flat insane now.

      (Of course there were people on our side that said Obama wouldn’t leave either…but that’s different :))

    20. Gordon Allen says:

      “20+21. It’s not that the pollsters are failing to learn; it’s entirely wilful and deliberate narrative setting. I New Hampshire visiting and STIL have not found ONE person who voted for Trump in 2016 and isn’t now. When I do I’ll advise everyone.

    21. PhilS says:

      The pollsters haven’t changed anything because it is hard and expensive to do. They’d have to figure out how to get a valid, unbiased random sample of the population.

      Most of these polls are run by social science professors at liberal arts colleges, using a couple of undergrads as phone callers. They have neither the resources nor incentive to improve.

    22. Tina says:

      And these are “fact checkers?”

      Daniel Dale
      @ddale8
      · 10h
      Look, there’s just no equivalence.

      Biden makes some false and misleading claims. It’s important to note them. We will. But his assertions of fact have been largely factual.

      Trump, as we saw at the town hall and see again tonight, has been incessantly and egregiously dishonest.

    23. Scooterboy says:

      Happy Birthday Walt !!!!!

      I know you’ve witnessed some incredible things over the years.

      I would assume the signing of the Declaration Of Independence had to be right up there at the top of the list.

    24. Tina says:

      Kudlow was on tv yesterday with the Money Honey.

      Kudlow says to expect a blow out September job number.

      This is the last number before the election.

      Kudlow indicated that business investment is doing well,

    25. jason says:

      But his assertions of fact have been largely factual.”

      LOL

    26. Tina says:

      Ras

      53/46

    27. Tina says:

      It’s time for the jebots to drop Russian Hoax 2.0.

      Jebots where are you? What is the next hoax?

    28. Scooterboy says:

      Poor Nate.

      Nate Silver- “ With Arizona polls looking strong for Biden lately and Florida polls looking weak (though he maintains a narrow lead), a person does wonder which camp Texas would fall into.”

    29. jason says:

      Bunu hardest hit:

      “Pelosi: Democrats Likely Won’t Pass Less Than $2 Trillion Stimulus Deal

      Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) on Thursday suggested Democrats will not accept anything that costs less than about $2 trillion on a COVID-19 stimulus deal.”

      That’s already a 1.4 trillion improvement over her last bill.

    30. Tina says:

      Regarding the response to the China Virus:

      Yesterday, in the Cn and n Biden event, where they let drats ask him 13 out of 16 questions, he lied saying that Trump”never mentioned covid during the SOTU. He did mention it,

      Moreover, Trump was early with the China travel ban on 1/31. Biden called him xenophobic and a scare monger.

      But, there is one more difference too. With respect to the March travel ban in Europe, Biden came out against it,

    31. mnw says:

      53/48. Highest since Sept. 2019.

    32. Florida Guy says:

      Not gonna lie. I am spooked by Biden’s resilience in the MSM polls. But the LV and GOP polls definitely show Trump on the cusp of a win. It is a tad confusing.

      As for Florida, I don’t buy any of the polls. They just don’t know how to poll Florida, with the exception of Trafalgar. Trump’s numbers will be big in any and all red Florida counties.

      -fg

    33. jason says:

      I say do 1.7 trillion and call it a day.

      Trump goes up 700 million, Pelosi comes down 1.7 trillion.

    34. Tina says:

      So, if Biden were in charge of covid, we would not have had any travel bans until after mid March.

      Scientifically speaking, our infections and deaths would have been a lot worse.

      I don’t mention the PPE depletion caused by the obumbler, supply lines for basic medicines in China by The obumbler, and the infamous Cdc test. All of these are Obama Biden specials.

    35. Phil says:

      I’ve gotten where I completely ignore these polls sponsored by liberal institutions. Sierra sponsored by the NYT. Marist polls sponsored by NBC….they are designed to provide the results that their clients desire. Why would they do that? Simple. They want to get paid. If you are a pollster you don’t get paid unless the leftist institution retains you. It’s a vicious cycle and it’s a scam. Total and complete.

    36. mnw says:

      Tina’s right: 53/46. My mistake. RAS sez highest since Sept., 2019, altho I think Trump hit 53% twice since then, so “highest” in the sense of a TIE for highest.

      Maybe this is a mini-Nobel Prize/ME agreement bump?

    37. Tina says:

      Look at the 2016 nc poll by senseless/slimes.

      What a bad miss.

      (H/t people’s pundit)

    38. jason says:

      Not gonna lie. I am spooked by Biden’s resilience in the MSM polls.”

      It is what unlimited funds and support of 98% of the MSM does for you.

      If Trump exhibited the same mental impairment signs that Biden does the MSM would be talking about it 24/7. They would have “experts” analyzing every gaffe by the dozens.

    39. Tina says:

      Mnw, I think you are right.

      A few days ago, Ras found highs for Trump on the economy and handling foreign policy.

      The foreign policy achievements are significant.

      NK calmed down, brink of war in 2017.

      Iranian general Taken out

      Isis defeated

      ME Peace.

      That is why Team Uni are upset.

    40. Tina says:

      Forgot, Trump has not started a new, stupid, endless war.

    41. Tina says:

      Regarding his foreign policy, it is more like Reagan than the Bushies or GOP-e.

    42. PhilS says:

      “I say do 1.7 trillion and call it a day.

      Trump goes up 700 million, Pelosi comes down 1.7 trillion.”

      3Q GDP is tracking at 32% annual growth rate.

      There is no need for any stimulus.

      If Q4 comes in even at half the Q3 rate, the YtoY GDP will grow by 2.7% from 2019.

    43. PhilS says:

      The issue with the stimulus bill is not the amount or the difference, it’s what inside.

      The difference is entirely the bailouts to state governors and city mayors to offset their budget shortfalls.

    44. Tina says:

      Kudlow hinted that a big bailout is not needed

      Some money only to people and airlines.

      Very targeted.

      There may also be $300 billion (or more) unspent from the first stimulus bill.

    45. Gordon Allen says:

      Not only is Rasmussen 53-46,but the strongly approve number 44-40 (+4) I think is the best yet. If Trump’s getting that with a D+4 sample it would be smelling Trump landslide.Its as if Rasmussen, Democracy Institute, and Trafalgar polls are from a different planet from the MSM/ College polls. Two things jump out; the latter are all Like Voters,and none are above D+4 or other absurd samples ( historically)

    46. DW says:

      Spooked by the polls? Do I really need to start posting 2016 polls again here?
      Asking MSM and universities to show food news for Trump is like expecting to find Red Sox gear on the Yankees store web page.

    47. Gordon Allen says:

      Likely

    48. Tgca says:

      Dr. Fow-chee at it again. Lord, this media hound can’t help but comment on every issue without having the facts and thinking about the admins official position. If he was in any other place; he’d be fired or demoted by now.

      Pence aid announces she plans to vote for Biden and accuses Trump of wrong doing and being terrifying. Her boss says she’s disgruntled because she was basically demoted due to poor performance on her other duties.

      https://www.newsmax.com/us/fauci-aide-pence-trump/2020/09/18/id/987554/

    49. Phil says:

      Trump will win Florida. He will win NC. Iowa and Ohio will not be close. I also believe he will win Pa. He will be up substantially there on election night. However, we’ll then have to wait at least 4 to 6 days to get a Pa call thanks to the way the Pa Supreme Court mucked up things yesterday. That was by design. They want to steal it if they can and if they can’t do that at least sew doubt and chaos for an extended time after Nov 3rd. Democrats and the media have told you exactly what they are going to do.

      There is absolutely no way you get a winner on election night. If some of you think that Trump will be declared the winner on election night or even the next day or two after that you are delusional.

    50. jason says:

      I don’t completely discount the polls.

      However there is enough disparity among them and enough good news for Trump in some of them to suggest this is not a done deal for anybody.

      I think PA is key to the election. Anecdotal evidence is that the enthusiasm for Trump is much higher than for Biden but I am afraid the balloting harvesting negates this advantage.

      In the 2020 primary, Dems got 1.6 million votes vs 1.15 million for Reps, based entirely on mail in votes since Trump led in same day voting.

      I was disappointed in these results even though it is a closed primary and Indies like me did not vote. But it suggests Trump might need a strong majority of Indies to win the state.

      The campaign is working hard. I already received like 4 mailings with vote by mail ballot requests/ So if you are a current or former registered R, attended a rally, or contributed to the campaign you are getting vote by mail ballot applications.

    51. Tina says:

      Nu thread.

    52. Waingro says:

      Ras without the Ras is either going to rejuvenated as THE pollster to look at from now on or will be laughed at uncontrollably forever until they quietly go belly up.

    53. jason says:

      The issue with the stimulus bill is not the amount or the difference, it’s what inside.

      The difference is entirely the bailouts to state governors and city mayors to offset their budget shortfalls.”

      I agree. But the Dems holding back means they thought there is a political advantage in doing so.

      If Pelosi is blinking now maybe their polls aren’t showing that.

    54. SweatyToothedMadman says:

      This hand-wringing over unsurprising decisions re: mail-in balloting – most recently PA and MI – is beyond tedious. The GOP needs to dispense with the whining and start cheating hammer and tong w/ the Dems. After all, the Dems don’t have exclusive rights to voting by mail, harvesting ballots, etc. Given their organizational resources, the GOP should be able to hang w/ the Dems. If the election descends into a protracted mess, the GOP will have allowed itself to be outplayed on GOTV.

    55. SweatyToothedMadman says:

      Addendum to my #59: Outplayed not only on GOTV — but fraud.