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    ABC News/WaPo Shows Trump Surging To Lead in AZ and FL

    There has been a lot of polling this week and in lieu of posting everything from Monday and Tuesday, I am going to just jump to the bombshell polls this morning from The Washington Post and ABC News that shows Donald Trump ahead of Joe Biden in both Florida and Arizona, which are the best numbers we have seen for Trump in quite a while for these two state. On top of that ABC News and The Washington Post are showing Martha McSally within a single percentage point of Mark Kelly.

    PRESIDENT – FLORIDA (ABC/WaPo)
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 51%
    Joe Biden (D) 47%

    PRESIDENT – ARIZONA (ABC/WaPo)
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 49%
    Joe Biden (D) 48%

    US SENATE – ARIZONA (ABC/WaPo)
    Mark Kelly (D) 49%
    Martha McSally (R-inc) 48%

    These polls were done September 15-20 among likely voters in each state. Change Research also has their usual batch of polls and they pour a little cold water on the numbers above for AZ and FL.

    PRESIDENT – ARIZONA (Change Research)
    Joe Biden (D) 49%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 43%

    PRESIDENT – FLORIDA (Change Research)
    Joe Biden (D) 49%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 46%

    PRESIDENT – MICHIGAN (Change Research)
    Joe Biden (D) 51%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 43%

    PRESIDENT – NORTH CAROLINA (Change Research)
    Joe Biden (D) 48%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 46%

    PRESIDENT – PENNSYLVANIA (Change Research)
    Joe Biden (D) 49%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 45%

    PRESIDENT – WISCONSIN (Change Research)
    Joe Biden (D) 51%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 42%

    US SENATE – ARINZONA (Change Research)
    Mark Kelly (D) 51%
    Martha McSally (R-inc) 43%

    US SENATE – MICHIGAN (Change Research)
    Gary Peters (D-inc) 50%
    John James (R) 44%

    US SENATE – NORTH CAROLINA (Change Research)
    Cal Cunningham (D) 48%
    Thom Tillis (R-inc) 43%

    These polls were done September 18-20 among likely voters in each state.

    Posted by Dave at 11:43 am
    Filed under: General | Comments (690)

    690 Responses to “ABC News/WaPo Shows Trump Surging To Lead in AZ and FL”

    1. mnw says:

      Dave accepts Change Research polls at face value.

      Kind of speaks for itself, doesn’t it? “Pour a little cold water on”? REALLY? Is THERE any leftwing poll in the universe that Dave would just discount as garbage from the gitgo?

    2. MrVito says:

      Surging = proper screening.

    3. Waingro says:

      Generic Ballot (National)

      Dem 47%
      Rep 43%

      9/20-9/22 by YouGov (B)
      1124 LV

    4. MrVito says:

      Shouldn’t more cities than Louisville be preparing?

    5. PhilS says:

      “Change Research reaches voters via targeted online ads that point people to an online survey instrument. Our Dynamic Online Sampling establishes and continuously rebalances advertising targets across region, age, gender, race, and partisanship to dynamically deliver large samples that accurately reflect the demographics of a population. ”

      Dave W is a long time Trump Deranged Hack. This is what he considers polling. Targeted online ads.

    6. Justin says:

      Left out the Georgia poll with good news for Trump and great for Perdue.

    7. mnw says:

      RAS has Biden +1?

      I’ll take it! HRC “won” by 2.1%, IIRC.

    8. PhilS says:

      At least ABC-WaPo tries to get a random representative sample.

    9. Justin says:

      Actually, it looks like Republican are slightly overrepresented in both the FL and AZ polls.

    10. Justin says:

      Is Ras still using a D+4 sample in the poll showing Biden with a one point lead?

    11. PhilS says:

      “Lisa Murkowski Reverses Position on Filling SCOTUS Vacancy, Won’t Rule Out Vote to Confirm.”

      Senate should forego the hearings circus. Tell the Dems they don’t deserve hearings after the shameful and fraudulent Kavanaugh performance.

    12. mnw says:

      Unless YouGov uses different methodologies for different polls, then YouGov is an opt-in joke, just like Change.

    13. Phil says:

      Justin, yes.

    14. PhilS says:

      Ras is still doing a D+4 for national head-to-head polling.

    15. MrVito says:

      “Lisa Murkowski Reverses Position on Filling SCOTUS Vacancy, Won’t Rule Out Vote to Confirm.”

      Too late, slimeball.

    16. Stonewall DW says:

      And if old Stonewall can perfectly predict 3 out of the six Change Research “polls” before they even come out, it also says they are a joke.

    17. Phil says:

      Baris says not to look for any good national public polls for Trump through the election. “National polls will continue to herd at around Biden +7 until the very end when they will all herd to 4.”

      He is livid about the way pollsters are scamming things this election season.

    18. Stonewall DW says:

      Trump is obviously no Reagan, but then again, Biden is no Walter Mondale.

      Given the 49 state thumping given to Mondale in 1984, if Trump only barely wins this election against a guy who has lost his marbles, then the electorate owes an apology to Mondale.

    19. Chicon says:

      18 – this is why Paladin is at least as accurate as any other pollster.

    20. MrVito says:

      “ On the heels of the historic peace accords Israel signed last week with Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, another regional deal is now possible. Sudan, once a terror safe harbor, is openly mulling ties with the Jewish state. Another major diplomatic achievement beckons, provided Washington gives the right nudges.”

      https://nypost.com/2020/09/22/israels-next-peace-deal-will-be-with-sudan/

    21. Stonewall DW says:

      Even 538 gives Change Research a C- grade. But I guess its progress that Dave W said “a little cold water” instead of just “cold water.”

    22. ShaneHap says:

      ???? ??????? ??????? ?????? http://abs70.ru/member.php?u=1239 ??????? ???????????? ?????? ???????

    23. Scooterboy says:

      I have a sneaky suspicion that Biden will do better in the first debate, than what people are expecting.

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    25. Stonewall DW says:

      New Round of Purple State Initiative Polls:

      September 20-22, 2020
      1000 LVs per state.

      Florida:

      Trump 50%
      Biden 46%

      North Carolina:

      Trump 48%
      Biden 45%

      Virginia:

      Trump 44%
      Biden 48%

      Colorado:

      Trump 43%
      Biden 46%

      Nevada:

      Trump 47%
      Biden 43%

      Minnesota:

      Trump 45%
      Biden 44%

      Pennsylvania:

      Trump 48%
      Biden 47%

      Wisconsin:

      Trump 45%
      Biden 47%

      Michigan:

      Trump 46%
      Biden 46%

      New Hampshire:

      Trump 48%
      Biden 44%

      Paladin Polling – Purple State Initiative

    26. mnw says:

      Is Biden “Albert Kew”? There’re stylistic similarities! (cough!) MORONS (cough!)

      25 SB

      Me too.

    27. Tina says:

      Rand Paul just lit up Fallacy.

    28. Phil says:

      Does Antifa and BLM send all their goons to Louisville the next few nights to loot, riot and burn or do they spread them out through a large number of cities and immediately go national with it?

    29. Phil says:

      I think they hit Louisville tonight and ransack the other cities on Friday and Saturday night when they can get more people out…plus it gives them more time to organize.

    30. Ruru says:

      Louisville curfew in place starting at 9 pm.
      Fear is protests today – riot tonite.

    31. Stonewall DW says:

      SB, its an interesting question, and it depends on the viewer.

      1) The person who only barely follows politics, except for the month before the election, and usually votes. This person remembers Obama/Biden and has a vague recollection of what Biden looked like.

      This person watches the first debate and is horrified that Biden looks worse than some corpses do at a funeral.

      2) The person who loosely follows politics, has heard some buzzing about Biden’s health not being what it was but doesn’t really know the extent of it.

      This person watches the first debate and sees the fears realized, that the rumors appear to be true that Biden has in fact slipped badly in health.

      3) The person who knows Biden has slipped, has been expecting him to show it at the debate.

      This person watches the debate and sees that in fact Biden is in bad shape, and is not surprised by his performance.

      4) People like me who have been re-posting all his ramblings and the rumors he wears depends, and is on dementia meds.

      I might watch the debate and see that he does better than have a stroke and drool on himself.

      Category 4 is by far the smallest. Most people are in category 1 and 2 and they will be shocked at how poor Biden’s health is.

    32. Tina says:

      Joe just blew up,at a reporter. Pure anger.

      Not a good look.

      https://twitter.com/realDailyWire/status/1308807891797770241

    33. Chicon says:

      Tina, was that today?

    34. Wes says:

      Scoot, Trump talked down Biden’s cognitive abilities so much Biden will probably perform above expectations just by being able to stand up during the debate.

    35. Stonewall DW says:

      36 – again, the target isn’t Trump supporters who might be surprised Biden is still able to stand up, its the category 1 and 2 I mentioned above. they are the ones who will be shocked.

    36. Scooterboy says:

      Tina, I believe that clip of Biden is old.

    37. Tina says:

      Yes, today.

      A reporter asked him about Ukraine.

    38. Stonewall DW says:

      Trump in the debate should be very frequent with numbers, as Biden has shown over and over he struggles remembering numbers and getting them right. Get Biden talking about numbers and he will say something really stupid.

    39. Tina says:

      Sorry, update.

      It’s old,

      It’s being recycled because of today’s report.

    40. Justin says:

      One officer charged for wanton endangerment, a class D felony punishable up to five years in prison. The other two officers will not face any charges.

    41. Tina says:

      I guess earlier this year, then?

      But it points out to his sharp decline the last six or so months

      They are hiding him because of what happened on Sunday and Monday.

      Also, when they got him out of bed on Friday over RBG.

    42. Stonewall DW says:

      34 – scroll down in that link where there is a video of a woman making obscene gestures at Trump supporters instead of focusing on driving and so she rear-ended the car in front of her, and yes, there were cops right behind her…so the clip ends with the cops approaching her window. Pricelessly funny.

    43. Tina says:

      It’s scary how fallacy is a one trick pony.

      Todd Lowdon
      @tlowdon
      ·
      23m
      Fauci is like a French general in 1940 urging the building of a deeper, stronger Maginot Line even as the Germans sweep around it. He’s fixed on a single theory of defense & appears incapable of updating his strategy as new facts emerge. We need a more agile, dynamic thinker.

    44. Tina says:

      I saw it, thanks,

      Hope she is charged by the police.

      She practically got her body out of the car window while moving,

    45. Chowders says:

      Stonewall – Do you have a link to those Paladin Polling – Purple State Initiative Polls? Those look very good.

    46. Waingro says:

      Ooph.

      MULawPoll
      @MULawPoll
      Among likely voters in the nationwide sample, 50% say they will vote for Joe Biden, 40% for Donald Trump, 3% for Libertarian Jo Jorgensen, and 2% for Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins. #mulawpoll

    47. Waingro says:

      #48, nevermind. I fell for it. It’s a nationwide poll. Thought it was for WI.

    48. Florida Guy says:

      Wow, ABC/Post. It has begun. The Trump effect in the fall has begun to confound the pollsters. I’d say Trump is back to a 50-50 shot at winning the EC as of today.

      -FLoG

    49. PresidentPaul! says:

      https://www.cboe.com/index/dashboard/vxn#vxn-overview

      As above you can see Nas vol staying historically high meaning that nearly every single day people are going to get rekt right through election day and beyond until Pelosi’s 2 trillion stimulus bill is passed or alternatively Biden’s 20 trillion dollar stimulus bill is passed after Trump get monkey stomped in the election.

    50. Justin says:

      47 – those are fake polls

    51. Justin says:

      Great Lakes Polls

      Biden 47% (+2)
      Trump 45%

      Ohio:
      Biden 45% (+1)
      Trump 44%

      Michigan:
      Biden 50% (+8)
      Trump 42%

      Wisconsin:
      Biden 50% (+9)
      Trump 41%

    52. Justin says:

      AP polls

      North Carolina:
      Biden 47%
      Trump 47%

      #NCsen:
      Cunningham (D) 48% (+4)
      Tillis (R-inc) 44%

      Michigan
      Biden 49% (+5)
      Trump 44%

      #MIsen:
      Peters (D-inc) 49% (+6)
      James (R) 43%

    53. Justin says:

      In 55, the 47-45 race is PA – sorry about that.

    54. jaichind says:

      55. PA to the right of OH sounds really fishy

    55. The godfather says:

      Reuters/Ipsos releasing a new Florida poll either later today or tomorrow.

    56. Justin says:

      59 – I’d expect a 2-3 point Biden lead based on their other polling.

    57. Todd McCain says:

      Trump needs to prepare like Biden is likely doing. Trump always likes to wing it; can he just prepare one time?

    58. Gordon Allen says:

      2 and 7. Thanks for the heads up on the Change Research methodology. Barris is right the ” polling community” has its narrative and is sticking to it.
      Dave W is more than a Never Trumper now; he’s genuinely left and hopes for a Democrat victory.Its hard to see him surviving with this site in the event of a Trump / Republican win. After all his ideal of a Republican is Larry Hogan.
      VERY encouraging ( and surprising) was the You Guv Generic Ballot. With their left tilt that is very good on the Congressional side,as because of the 90-10 splits in urban districts ( Pelosi et al)they probably need very close to that to maintain control.
      More optimistic than ever in my July pick: Trump 49,Biden 47,Other4 with 324 Electoral votes for Trump.

    59. PresidentPaul! says:

      President Xi’s brother is worth hundreds of millions even though no one knows how he got the money, but he spends it all on hookers, gambling and booze.

      https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2020/09/23/senate-releases-damning-report-of-hunter-biden-foreign-payments-and-influence-sales-money-hookers-and-bribes/

      Senate Releases Damning Report of Hunter Biden Foreign Payments and Influence Sales – Money, Hookers and Bribes…

    60. MrVito says:

      Turns out it was NOT a no knock warrant.

    61. Tina says:

      This is the first time hearing this, it was said that there was no knock warrant.

      Rob O’Donnell
      @odonnell_r
      · 31m
      Key points from investigation:
      -Warrant was not served no knock corroborated by witness.
      -After several minutes, officers made entry.
      -Was met with both Mrs Taylor & Boyfriend standing in hallway, boyfriend was armed & in shooting stance.
      -Boyfriend admitted to shooting first.

    62. Chicon says:

      Any word yet from LeBron?

    63. Chicon says:

      Burn it down!!!!

    64. Waingro says:

      “MrVito says:
      September 23, 2020 at 2:35 pm
      Turns out it was NOT a no knock warrant.”

      You mean the media lied? No way!

    65. Tina says:

      They will burn it down.

      The Jebot will be here praising the protesters.

    66. Chicon says:

      I believe it WAS a no-knock warrant, but the officers chose to knock (meaning it was not SERVED as a no-knock warrant).

      Doesn’t change the fact that the media fed a false narrative.

    67. Smack says:

      Does anybody remember the website’s name that keep tracks of early voting by party ID in some states like North Carolina?

      I think it’s called something like Election projection?

    68. NYCmike says:

      Hold on 1 minute…….are you saying the police had a warrant, knocked on the door first, waited, then burst in and saw the boyfriend who fired first? And thru all this, Breonna Taylor was still lying in bed?

      Is that correct?

    69. Tina says:

      Yup,

      It was not a no knock.

      She was not in bed. They were in the hallway.

      Her boy toy fired first.

    70. Stonewall DW says:

      47 – sure…will get you the link shortly.

    71. Tina says:

      Bad move here by China Biden.

      No DOJ DIVISION belongs in the WH.

      This is corruption.

      https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/517828-biden-says-he-would-bring-doj-civil-rights-division-into-white-house

    72. Tina says:

      Can WRONG Wray explain how the hula group is not organized?

      Who is funding this?

    73. Tina says:

      Uhaul group*

      How does a Hal jut appear loaded down with sheot to start a riot!

    74. Chicon says:

      Mike – all true, except she was standing next to the guy in the hall when he shot at the cops.

    75. Tina says:

      More Hoe Harris. Why hide her?

      Jason Donner
      @jason_donner
      · 28m
      Q: Reaction to Breonna Taylor indictment?
      Senator & Dem VP Nominee Kamala Harris: “You know I haven’t read it fully yet, but there’s no question Breonna Taylor and her family deserve justice yesterday, today, and tomorrow, so I’ll review it and then I can say more.”

    76. Stonewall DW says:

      NORTH CAROLINA – Harper

      SEP 17-20, 2020
      612 LV

      Biden 44%
      Trump 45%

    77. BillW says:

      Just a comment directed at those ragging on Dave Wissing.

      If you don’t like the site, leave. Go start your own polling site and sit back and wait for people to show up. Take whatevere positions you like and show any polls you like. No one is forcing you to hang around here.

      I have been reading Dave’s stuff with interest since about 2-3 months after he started HHR. I enjoy hearing from the oldtimers like Bitter and lisab (sorry!) and can even tolerate Tina and jason. As for the rest of you, GFY.

    78. NYCmike says:

      Hey BillW,

      One egg creme for you!

      GFY!

    79. Justin says:

      Yeah, well KMA!

    80. Tina says:

      The trump campaign is slamming China Biden hard.

      https://twitter.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1308835587156140032

    81. Tina says:

      Where’s Hunter?

      Will Chamberlain
      @willchamberlain
      · 1h
      Hunter Biden’s law firm Owasco received nearly $6 million from Chinese oligarch Ye Jianming

      $1 million of that was said to be for the representation of Patrick Ho at trial by Boies Schiller Flexner and Owasco

      But those firms were not involved at all

      Bank fraud?

    82. PhilS says:

      “BillW says:
      September 23, 2020 at 2:57 pm
      Just a comment directed at those ragging on Dave Wissing.

      If you don’t like the site, leave. Go start your own polling site and sit back and wait for people to show up. Take whatevere positions you like and show any polls you like. No one is forcing you to hang around here.

      I have been reading Dave’s stuff with interest since about 2-3 months after he started HHR. I enjoy hearing from the oldtimers like Bitter and lisab (sorry!) and can even tolerate Tina and jason. As for the rest of you, GFY.”

      Why don’t you go and f&&k yourself, too?

      Why the thin skin? Can’t stand criticism when somebody points out stupidity? If you or anyone else posts anything, be prepared for pushback. Life is not fair.

    83. Tina says:

      Breaking

      Josh Caplan
      @joshdcaplan
      · 12m
      ALASKA PUBLIC MEDIA: Sen. Lisa Murkowski says she can’t rule out voting for Trump’s SCOTUS nominee

    84. Tina says:

      Paging the jebots.

      Undercover Huber
      @JohnWHuber
      ·
      1h
      Wire transfers received from corrupt Russian billionaires:

      Carter Page: $0
      Hunter Biden: $3.5m

      For any Russian Collusion hoaxers having trouble keeping score

    85. Tina says:

      Is this true?

      Larry Schweikart
      @LarrySchweikart
      ·
      1h
      Comment from “Freeper” byecomey on his ongoing analysis of NC early voting:
      “7-day rolling average now predicts Ds achieving 40% of their total 2016 turnout & Rs at 20%. This is actually worse for the Ds than my initial post last week. Ginsburg has definitely energized Rs.”

    86. PhilS says:

      “Larry Hogan says Senate should not confirm Trump Supreme Court nominee before election”

      Dave W’s loser hero opines.

    87. Tina says:

      Did Larry buy anymore Korean covid tests?

    88. Stonewall DW says:

      IPSOS

      ARIZONA

      Biden 47
      Trump 46

      FLORIDA

      Biden 47
      Trump 47

      Florida seems to be done if that’s the best IPSOS can do.

    89. mnw says:

      93 DW

      Sort of indicates ABC/WaPo may not be an outlier.

      AZ surprises me a LOT more than FL.

      Does anybody much remember this poster in 82 above? I don’t. Sure is a brownnoser.

    90. Stonewall DW says:

      In October 2016 IPSOS had Florida with Hillary ahead 42/38/6/2 in a four way, and 44/42 in a two-way matchup.

      Today they say its tied at 47.

    91. jason says:

      I did not panic, but some moonbat commenting on Predictit is..

      “Before you panic about the ABC poll, keep in mind that in their Arizona poll they had Biden winning Maricopa county by 13% while losing Arizona by one. That’s not going to happen. ABC has an A+ rating based on their national polling, but it’s clear they have little experience in state polling.”

    92. Stonewall DW says:

      John, both IPSOS are linked at 538

    93. jason says:

      I have been reading Dave’s stuff with interest since about 2-3 months after he started HHR. I enjoy hearing from the oldtimers like Bitter and lisab (sorry!) and can even tolerate Tina and jason. As for the rest of you, GFY.”

      Bitter is enjoyed while I am just “tolerated”?

      HHR is a tough place.

    94. jason says:

      If you don’t like the site, leave. Go start your own polling site and sit back and wait for people to show up. Take whatevere positions you like and show any polls you like. No one is forcing you to hang around here.”

      I have made this same point many times.

      But here is the catch. If you just put up polls that fit your narrative at a polling site few people will show up.

    95. jason says:

      It has come to this….

      Advertising executive Donny Deutsch compared President Trump and Adolf Hitler Wednesday morning on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe.”

      “If you are a Jew in this country and you are supporting Donald Trump, you are not looking back at our history,” he said. “And you are blind and you are walking like a lemming off a cliff. It is time to wake up. I’m sorry. This is where we are.”

      “There is no difference from what Donald Trump is preaching, from what Adolf Hitler preached in the early ’30s. Let’s just say it once and for all,” he added.

    96. jason says:

      This on a major cable channel and with a former R congressman.

      Reaction from the MSM? Zero.

    97. Tina says:

      Disgusting Mslsd.

      Thomas Catenacci
      @ThomasCatenacci
      · 32m
      MSNBC guest on black Kentucky AG Cameron: “He’s skinfolk, but he is not kinfolk…he should be ashamed of himself.”

    98. Waingro says:

      So FL, AZ and PA all tightening towards Trump. he wins all 3 of these its BALL GAME.

      Political Polls
      @Politics_Polls
      ·
      4m
      PENNSYLVANIA
      Biden 47% (+2)
      Trump 45%
      Jorgensen 2%
      Hawkins 0%

      @BaldwinWallace
      , LV, 9/8-22

    99. Stonewall DW says:

      101–disgusting. They literally will stop at nothing.

    100. Stonewall DW says:

      Those Baldwin Wallace Univ – Great Lakes polls have a left tilt, but come on, there is no way Trump is -1 in OH while at the same time -2 in PA. To just be off 3 points in PA from 2016, while being off 9 points in OH, when all the anecdotal evidence is OH is now Trump-land and even Morning Insult has Trump +5 in OH in each of its last two polls.

    101. jason says:

      Murkowski is against Trump having a nominee now.’

      But she is not saying she will actually vote against him/her, is she? If that was the case she would say she would vote against any nominee.

      “I know everybody wants to ask the question, ‘will you confirm the nominee?’” she said outside the Capitol, as her Republican colleagues were gathering for their weekly policy lunch. “We don’t have a nominee yet. You and I don’t know who that is. And so I can’t confirm whether or not I can confirm a nominee when I don’t know who the nominee is.”

    102. Wes says:

      Someone mentioned Daniel Cameron. Check out this sleazily edited Wikipedia page. Racist and disgusting.

    103. Wes says:

      Ah. Someone corrected it from 51st Uncle Tom to 51st AG.

    104. MrVito says:

      Daniel Foster
      @DanFosterType
      ·
      1h
      Feinstein is skeptical of court packing and ending the filibuster, so her party placed a story in The Politico saying she has “noticeably slowed down” and pondering “what to do with” her. Just a bunch of real peaches over there.

    105. NYCmike says:

      Like to make a point about Murkowski saying she might vote YES for the nominee…….this is why I continuously ask, and then like to see, how people like Robbie, who are supposedly conservative Republicans, come out and say they will vote FOR President Trump and the rest of the Republican ticket, despite their intense dislike of the current President. Once these politicians like Murk and Romney see how much their voters support Supreme Court judge nominees it makes them re-evaluate their positions against Trump, since he is only around for at best another 4 years and 4 glorious months. The Supreme Court judges and policies implemented by him will hopefully last longer than his stay.

    106. Scooterboy says:

      104. Yep. That’s why I expect the Trump campaign to be camped out in Pennsylvania during October. I think it’s going to come down to whoever wins Pennsylvania, wins the election.

    107. MrVito says:

      Amichai Stein
      @AmichaiStein1
      · 47m
      #BREAKING: @USAmbUN tells @AlArabiya that “another country will sign a normalization deal with #Israel in the next day or two”

    108. Scooterboy says:

      Ohio is done. Trump will win Ohio by 6-8 points. Possibly more.

    109. MrVito says:

      Rubio and Scott are reportedly lobbying Trump for Lagoa.

    110. PhilS says:

      “Biden says Senate should wait on Trump Supreme Court nominee despite past comments”

      “Larry Hogan says Senate should not confirm Trump Supreme Court nominee before election”

      Birds of a feather flock together.

    111. Tina says:

      More please.

      Alex Thompson
      @AlxThomp
      · 2h
      Damn. A Dem Senator anonymously slams Feinstein

      “She’s not sure what she’s doing…If you take a look at Kavanaugh, we may be short two senators because of that. And if this gets [messed] up, it may be the same result.” https://politico.com/news/2020/09/23/dianne-feinstein-supreme-court-battle-420357…
      Show this thread

    112. PhilS says:

      “I think it’s going to come down to whoever wins Pennsylvania, wins the election.”

      Nope. Trump wins if he gets PA. Biden needs a lot more.

    113. Waingro says:

      #113, agreed, Scooter. I’m thinking AZ is starting to “come home” to Trump. FL is his.

      If he then wins PA, he can even concede ME-2 and NE-2 along with MI and WI.

    114. phoenixrisen says:

      Scooter, methinks that with the exception of Illinois, Trump will sweep the Rust Belt. Florida and NC look to be a lock for Trump now barring some negative cataclysm. With Trump now putting Virginia stops on the campaign calendar, that would suggest that Virginia is now in play.

    115. Waingro says:

      #119, if Biden wins PA, then Trump will have to pull out one of the other rust belt states to get to 270.

    116. PhilS says:

      122:

      What you say supports exactly what I say.

      If Biden wins PA, he still has to win other mid-west states.

      If Trump wins PA, he is re-elected, regardless of what happens in MI, WI, MN.

    117. Boog says:

      Are we supposed to read the Wissing posts? I have only ever read the comments.

    118. jason says:

      And on the fake news front…

      “The Trump Administration is reportedly discussing contingency plans to by pass election results”

      – The Atlantic

    119. jason says:

      Ok, I admit I was waiting for Larry Hogan’s opinion to decide on the issue.

    120. Waingro says:

      #123, got ya. I would still characterize it as the “tipping point” state though. I can’t imagine Biden wins PA and loses one of MI, WI and MN. That would be utterly shocking.

    121. jason says:

      Are we supposed to read the Wissing posts? I have only ever read the comments.”

      Yes, it is mandatory.

      There are surprise and random quizzes and if you don’t know the answer you get booted off.

    122. jason says:

      Trump hit the trifecta MI-WI-PA by small margins.

      It is conceivable in another very close election he could win none, win 1, win 2 or repeat.

      But these things move in tandem, if one is close the others will be too.

    123. Waingro says:

      #129, fair. I guess I’m more focused on the current polling data showing PA more consistently tight in comparison to the others.

    124. MrVito says:

      Why is “Burn Louisville” allowed to trend on twitter?

    125. George says:

      Polling is basically like the mock drafts before the NFL draft. Most are based solely on the whims and bias of the pollster. Most have little basis in reality. They should come with the warning: “for entertainment purposes only”.

    126. Boog says:

      Almost all of the polling is crap this year.

      Think about it: Trump is speaking in front of tens of thousands every day – enthusiasm off the charts. Biden can barely get out of his basement every third day or so. Bidens campaign is terrified every time he opens his mouth. Biden’s son just had a Senate report put out about him which implicates him in human trafficking. More rioting on the way, which will only make more dems vote Trump.

      And almost all of the campaigning is happening on traditional “blue” turf – the rust belt.

      This is actually a lot of fun. Appreciate the chance to watch a slow motion red electoral bloodbath. In later election years, you will wish that you took more time to soak up this one, instead of stressing.

    127. Chicon says:

      Right on, Boog.

    128. Tina says:

      Josh Caplan
      @joshdcaplan
      ·
      9m
      CBS 12: Florida attorney general opens investigation into Michael Bloomberg’s pledge to help felons pay debts

    129. Tgca says:

      133

      Groovy Boog!

    130. Tgca says:

      I’m getting nervous folks. I saw a poll linked on Breitbart that shows Trump only 2 points ahead in Texas!

      Not good. Is Utah tied yet?

      #BlueWavingComingTexas

    131. Stonewall DW says:

      What I am seeing in the polling today, is more or less the pollsters (WashPost, IPSOS, Monmouth) that have been given good grades (A+, A, A-) by Silver, are all starting to get honest as we are getting close to the election. The hack Dem pollsters with a poor grade don’t care and so they are still putting out absolute garbage polls to push the narrative that Biden has this wrapped up tighter than the velcro on his depends.

    132. jason says:

      Tgca must have finally decided meat is king and munched down on the same roadkill as Roadkill Maggot.

    133. Waingro says:

      #137, please tell me you’re trolling.

    134. Chicon says:

      140 – you really didn’t notice the sarcasm there?

    135. Tina says:

      China virus presser at 6 est.

      Look for the presstitutes to be really upset.

    136. Chicon says:

      Why this time, Tina?

    137. Hugh says:

      Tgca is known for bad food choices and sarcasm

    138. Tina says:

      Can we perp walk Dumberg?

    139. Tina says:

      Chicon, he tweeted this earlier today.

      Donald J. Trump
      @realDonaldTrump
      ·
      8h
      White House News Conference today at 6:00 P.M. Economy, Job gains and Vaccine development are all doing GREAT!

    140. Waingro says:

      #141, that’s what I was hoping. Citing Breitbart instead of a left wing rag gave me pause!

    141. Chicon says:

      That’ll do it.

    142. Tgca says:

      82

      I find it odd that BillS enjoys Bitter and LisaB but only tolerates Tina and Jadon.

      I’m trying to find a binding corollary here that connects those four to BillS liking and at what degree while everyone else earns a GFY.

      The answer to this must be in the list below but I just can’t make the connection yet. Hmmm…

      Flowers
      Sweaters
      Thongs
      Metrosexual
      Sewer State
      Thigh high boots
      Brawling sisters
      Foam parties
      Nicknames
      Gubbermint hater
      Amish
      Llamas
      Morbid Obesity
      500+ cholesterol levels
      Tofu bigot

      I guess as a long time original, I’m excluded because I’m gay but that ok as I’m used to gay hatred here at HHR. But I will forever be HHR 1st openly gay poster and gay mascot so no one can take that away from me and SDC and Michael can suck it as they will never achieve that status.

      …though Michael has gained some notoriety on his own with his salmon- colored jacket and hooking up on Tinder a few times weekly during COVID lockdown

      …and while SDC barely registers for anything more notable than chasing Mormon Latinos in San Diego and Utah.

    143. Tina says:

      Where is Beshar and the National,Guard?

      They did this sheot before wanting the city to burn,

    144. Tina says:

      Tgca,

      You forgot circumcision to your list.

    145. Tina says:

      I don’t think the Hotline Squash wanted to tweet this.

      Quote Tweet

      Josh Kraushaar
      @HotlineJosh
      · 9h
      “In Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin registration among whites without college degrees
      is up by 46 percent while registration by people of color is up by only 4 percent.” https://nytimes.com/2020/09/23/opinion/joe-biden-donald-trump-2020.html

    146. Waingro says:

      #152, I had to stop following him. TDS has clearly taken him over.

    147. Tgca says:

      151

      Good point Tina. I wonder if the connection has something to do with whether Chuck Connors did gay porn or not. I believed all 4 of you were in on that conversation and Jadon provided extensive analysis on the “Circumcision Defense” to defend Connors.

    148. Tina says:

      Tgca, I missed that one.

      I wanted to read those posts but missed them

    149. Stonewall DW says:

      way too many polls today. Just realized that same Baldwin Wallace poll showing Biden +8 in MI only had Peters +4.

      James is for real folks.

    150. Scooterboy says:

      Could Trump lose Pennsylvania and still win the election? Sure….. but at this point in time, I think Pennsylvania is the Big Enchilada.

      I also just don’t see Virginia being in play. If Virginia is in play, Trump wins easily.

    151. Waingro says:

      #156, yeah, James has started to run pretty consistently ahead of Trump in the polls. He’s running a hell of a campaign.

    152. B says:

      I am in VA (RVA) and can says that I have NOT seen one Biden sign. I have seen a lot of Trump signs though. Now around Richmond it is probably close to 50/50 but you wouldnt know it based on driving around. Maybe sleeply Joe really is putting his base to sleep.

    153. Stonewall DW says:

      Scooter, my impression is there is something regional going on. Look at FL and GA today, moving openly to Trump.

      However, MN, WI, and MI still don’t budge much in the polling, indicating what?

      Perhaps people in the upper midwest want to throw away all the progress from the last four years and send their jobs back to China so they can stand in soup line.

      Or perhaps they are being very tight-lipped in the mid-west, and given the 1% polling response rate, the pollsters are not getting an accurate read on the electorate.

      But in the south, there is nowhere near the same levels of fear to say one is for Trump, and so the movement is visible and real. And so if GA and FL move like this (NC to a lesser extent due to the research triangle) it could be VA is inching closer, hence Trump’s trip there Friday night.

    154. Stonewall DW says:

      B, I am in one of the Tidewater cities. There is almost NO signage for either candidate here. Its just too hot a topic given the very racially diverse electorate here. But what I do see, is a lot of American flags displayed. It seems the American flag has become the substitute for the Trump sign here. I have seen some Trump flags, but they tend to be in the front window, so you have to look hard to see them.

      VA Beach and Chesapeake both narrowly went to Trump.

      But there is definitely room to grow for Trump in VA. There was huge defection last time among never-Trumpers here. Others didn’t vote because they assumed Hillary had it in the bag.

    155. Robbie says:

      Pitch

      If you’re around, I believe you said you’re an oncologist. Is that correct? If that’s not the case, disregard the rest.

      If so, my uncle was diagnosed with lymphoma today and the first symptom was a swollen area on his cheek in front of his ear.

      As far as I know, he was not felling ill in any way.

    156. PhilS says:

      You guys give too much credence to biased and low-quality polls.

    157. Cash CowTM says:

      If there are any debates i expect Biden will do better than expected.

    158. Scooterboy says:

      I’m still thinking Lagoa will be the pick.

    159. Scooterboy says:

      164. Never thought I’d agree with a cow.
      That’s udderly ridiculous.

    160. PhilS says:

      If Biden doesn’t pee on stage, that will be better than expected.

    161. MrVito says:

      Geez… Louisville live-streams.

      Watching riot cops has been interesting.

    162. Scooterboy says:

      Twitter
      Real Election Analysis-“ Update on registrations in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania:

      Voter registrations among non college indoctrinated whites: + 46%!!!

      Voter registrations among all non-whites: +4%

      Biden is f***ed.

    163. Phil says:

      Baris today did his entire two hour show on Florida and Arizona this morning complete with charts and data reflecting voter registration numbers etc. really got into the weeds. Bottom line, Biden is running well short of needed votes in Miami-Dade (9% short) and that translates into about 85K less votes than HIllary got. Boy, that guy hates Nate Silver with a passion. Bottom line says Florida goes Trump and he shows his work. He then dove into the Arizona polls and showed what pollsters are missing in Maricopa County (Phoenix) and how they are way off with their Democratic numbers – waaay over estimating D sample there. Haven’t finished watching that entire segment yet.

    164. MrVito says:

      Phil, have you mentioned here you can contribute money for him to poll Florida?

    165. PhilS says:

      How would they know the demographics of voter registrations?

      Off the top of my head (it’s been a while since I registered to vote), I don’t recall any indication of education or race on reg. forms.

    166. Phil says:

      Surprised Democrats aren’t putting the Louisville riots on pay for view tonight – you know, as a fund raiser. Their whacko base would love it. Of course, so would I since the more people see the Democratic foot soldiers in action the more Biden tanks.

    167. PhilS says:

      Is the NFL going to join the Louisville BLM riots in solidarity?

    168. Phil says:

      Vito, yes, I’ve contributed $20 bucks. He now says the Florida poll is happening and will be a detailed poll with over samples of subgroups – Hispanic, Black, suburban women as well as oversamples of various counties throughout the state. Also said he might very well do a poll on Maine 2, NH, Arizona….and of course will continue to poll the rust belt.

      …but yeah, Baris knows Florida and says pollsters like Quinnipiac are embarrassing themselves. Quinn missed the 2018 Florida senate race putting Nelson up by 7. Laughable. Says Quinn and the other frauds like Marist and Mamouth are Making the same structural mistakes they made last time and, in some cases, worse.

    169. Pitchaboy says:

      Robbie: Will need info on
      1. Is this in a parotid gland or node
      2. Does he have underlying autoimmune disease
      3. What type of lymphoma: Follicular, large cell or marginal zone.
      4. Age and Stage.
      5. B symptoms: fever, weight loss, night sweats.

    170. Tina says:

      The report about the FDA delaying the vaccine thru Emergency Authorization is false.

      Wh would have to sign off on it, if the fda goes that route,

    171. Phil says:

      Well, I could see Goodell out there marching and maybe throwing an occasional Molotov cocktail and probably feeling right at home doing so.

    172. DW says:

      Maine Senate tied….Moore information

    173. Gordon Allen says:

      Jason; the other possibility you neglected to mention is Trump wins all ( mid western states comfortably) because Biden,a true Wizard of OZ with nothing behind the curtain. He is being kept afloat by Pravda like media coverage and objectively has NOTHING to offer personally or programmatically. A collapse is not inconceivable. Trump 49 Biden 47,324 ECVotes for Trump( if not better) if the economy continues to grow,COVD flattens out with a vaccine likely in the near future,and possibly further peace deals. I think Biden has peaked and can in all likelihood only only decline.

    174. Tina says:

      Once again Scott atlas had to clean up a lazy answer by the cdc director.

      I don’t know how is more useless the cdc director or fallacy.

    175. Tina says:

      And the presstitutes were in full rage mode.

      They were quite nasty to kudlow, interrupting him multiple times.

    176. Tina says:

      White supremacists are smashing up Louisville.

      -Jebots

    177. Robbie says:

      Pitchaboy says:
      September 23, 2020 at 6:52 pm
      Robbie: Will need info on
      1. Is this in a parotid gland or node
      2. Does he have underlying autoimmune disease
      3. What type of lymphoma: Follicular, large cell or marginal zone.
      4. Age and Stage.
      5. B symptoms: fever, weight loss, night sweats.

      – Thanks for responding. My info is limited, but they thought it might be the parotid gland, but it turned out to be the node. They haven’t determined which type of lymphoma yet. They just got an initial diagnosis today. He will have a pet scan next week.

      He is 65 and other than being heavy-ish, he has no pre-existing conditions. I do believe his brother died from lymphoma in the early 1980’s. The only symptom he had was swelling in front of his ear.

      Knowing your work, I was just curious about your general thoughts.

    178. mnw says:

      VR data: Maybe Trump ground game has emerged from its lair?

      I too am curious how the analysts know the race of the newly registered voters. They make a guess based on residence, maybe? If so, then how do these analysts know who went to college, & who didn’t?

    179. John says:

      Rumour mill….Amy Coney Barrett is the Trump’s nominee to replace Ruth Bader Ginsburg open position AND Barbara Lagoa standing by to named for Clarence Thomas or Stephen Breyer’s replacements if Trump is reelected….caveat meaning that Thomas just might want to retire if Trump is elected.

    180. Bitterlaw says:

      It’s Virtual Back to School Night. How exciting.

    181. Phil says:

      188 – Trump likes to head fake so hard to put much into rumors…but yeah, it sounds plausible.

    182. Tina says:

      Look at how Scott Atlas answers hostile media and answers clearly.

      https://twitter.com/tomselliott/status/1308901184615444488

    183. dblaikie says:

      People sometimes ask me how I, as a Clergy person, support Trump after all his bad behavior, ugly tweets, loose morals and arrogant personality, and on and on. Well let me tell you why. I am a prolife voter. Today the President told the National Catholic Prayer Breakfast that he will sign the “born alive” executive order. This will prevent goons, like the Governor of Virginia, from killing late term abortion babies. So any precious baby born alive will receive the medical care they deserve. I suppose there have been a lot of recent Presidents who are nicer, don’t write ugly tweets, and always say things politely, but none of them can touch the actions of this “so-called” rude and crude President on this issue. Donald Trump claims that he is the greatest all the time. That is overblown conceit. But what I will claim, and because of it he has my vote, Donald Trump is the greatest pro-life President in American History.

    184. Robbie says:

      Here’s my hot take on SCOTUS.

      Ginsburg rolled the dice and didn’t retire in 2014 when Obama was president and Democrats had 55 Senators. If she had done so, there would be a very liberal justice in his or her 50’s right now. It was a mistake not to make a strategic retirement.

      Clarence Thomas now finds himself in a similar position. He could have retired when a nominee of his liking would have been confirmed with ease. He didn’t and now he may have to wait as long as 8 years before a Republican in in the White House and there’s no guarantee there will be a Republican Senate.

      Strategic retirements are smart.

    185. John says:

      192
      John MacArthur of Grace Community Church in California, perhaps the most respected scholar of the Bible in the last 50 years, had opened up his church with thousands attending….only to be threatenend with jail time….Trump called him and encouraged to carry on the fight…..WOW.

    186. Pitchaboy says:

      Clarence Thomas does not have to even wait 8 weeks.

    187. mnw says:

      dbl

      I think the best way to approach politicians is just to clear away everything else, & say, “Will he/she help with what’s most important to me?”

      181 DW

      You certainly got my attention with THAT post! Awaiting “Moore information”!

    188. Greymarch says:

      FL, NC, OH and AZ are must win states for Trump. If he isnt winning all 4 of those states, then he’s losing everywhere. But, those 4, with the typical red state EC-total isnt enough to get Trump to 270. So, if we assume Trump wins those four, what is the state that will decide the election? Pennsylvania.

      For the 2020 prez election, I firmly believe the winner of PA will win the election. PA decides this bad-boy.

    189. Tina says:

      Jie Boden ?
      @JieBoden
      ·
      50m
      Hunter told me he needed cash for his friend Ko Cain. I had no idea he was going to use it for human trafficking.

    190. MrVito says:

      Are there any Democrat leaders without one foot in grave?

      https://twitter.com/dempstermd/status/1308868492624625665

    191. DW says:

      Vito, AOC comes to mind…she is running the Dem party now

    192. Robbie says:

      Pitchaboy says:
      September 23, 2020 at 7:30 pm
      Clarence Thomas does not have to even wait 8 weeks.

      – Maybe, but he took a risk and my point is Ginsburg showed why taking a risk can be a bad idea.

    193. MrVito says:

      “ Vito, AOC comes to mind…she is running the Dem party now”

      She told us she only had 12 years to live.

    194. DW says:

      Few it seems really think they are going to die.

    195. mnw says:

      DW

      Can you expand on your “Maine Senate race tied” post, pls?

    196. DW says:

      Collins is tied at 46. Pollster is Moore Information which is a GOP pollster. Link at 538.

    197. DW says:

      Typo…tied at 42

    198. PresidentPaul! says:

      If Maine race is close, that means Trump might get one of their electoral votes.

    199. DW says:

      Trump won ME_02 by 10 points last time, no reason to believe it will be different

    200. mnw says:

      206

      Thx. Way too good to be true.

    201. MrVito says:

      Julio Rosas
      @Julio_Rosas11
      ·
      45m
      People are trying to set fire to boards protecting the widows on the Hall of Justice in Louisville.

      ……………..

      THOSE POOR WIDOWS!

      WHERE ARE THE SUPER FRIENDS?

    202. DW says:

      And I think Trump will hold NE_02, which is why I keep saying NC + FL + PA is 269. And that’s without AZ, WI, NH, NV, MI or MN.

      Biden must win PA, without it he has to win NE_02, and then run the table getting MI, MN, WI, NV, and NH

    203. DW says:

      And without PA Biden would have to win AZ

    204. Tina says:

      Where is Beshear?

      Kneeling to BLM?

      Why aren’t the guard in position?

    205. Robbie says:

      Officer shot in downtown Louisville.

    206. OHIO Joe says:

      “Where is Beshear?” Thank the RINO clowns for voting for him.

    207. Tina says:

      Yup, the Rino clowns that heart rioting and cop killers.

    208. PresidentPaul! says:

      This is the actual problem why Trump has zero chance to win reelection.

      https://www.cboe.com/index/dashboard/vxn

      As long as VXN stays this elevated everyone’s retirements, savings along with the regular economy is going to get monkeyhammered right through election day.

      And it all relates to needing Pelosi’s stimulus. Not only would the stimulus boost the market, but it would reverse this dollar strength that has been building for the past 3-4 weeks.

    209. Tina says:

      Larry Schweikart
      @LarrySchweikart
      ·
      15m
      FL registration #S show Ds dropping like a rock. Latest show Ds only up 171,000 and falling with each update. 3 counties don’t update daily, one being Miami-Dade, which showed BIG GOP gains last month. Down to 150,000 advantage by the election?

    210. PresidentPaul! says:

      This dollar strength doesn’t just hurt US equities, but since most of the world’s debt is denominated in US dollars, it actually blows up the entire world itself as there is simply too much debt to be paid without dollar devaluation.

    211. PhilS says:

      You believe your nonsense?

    212. DW says:

      Once again, more evidence tonight the Democratic party is the party of looting, rioting, and violence. Get rid of the police and replace them with gangs. Turn the whole country into “Escape From New York”

      In short, if you wish to end western civilization and replace it with violence and chaos, vote for Democrats. If you wish for civilization to continue, vote Republican

    213. MrVito says:

      Reports of second officer shot

    214. DW says:

      Vito, shot or shot and killed?

    215. MrVito says:

      All the reports said was shot

    216. MrVito says:

      Word of protestors blocking Manhattan bridge

      Also on freeway in St Paul

    217. Marv says:

      DW,

      You are correct sir. I must admit that I’ve seen this movie before and I know how it ends. The Republican wins the election by a margin greater than expected.

    218. MrVito says:

      41
      141
      272

      Ian Miles Cheong
      @stillgray
      ·
      15m
      Washington DC. Antifa militants are screening journalists to remove “unapproved” reporters who film their violent activities.
      Quote Tweet

      Ford Fischer
      @FordFischer
      · 20m
      The activists are looking at individual media credentials and social media accounts and giving out glow bracelets to ones they approve of.

      They forbid livestreaming. At least for the time being, I will refrain from streaming for my safety and add updates here.

    219. PhilS says:

      Add another point to Trump’s margin.

    220. MrVito says:

      There are groups in Atlanta and Philly.

    221. PresidentPaul! says:

      “FXHedge
      @Fxhedgers
      ·
      43m
      SHOTS FIRED IN LOUISVILLE, AN OFFICER DOWN”

    222. MrVito says:

      Saw a Video of dinners being harassed in St.Pete.

    223. Marv says:

      Fox News:

      Second police officer shot in Louisville.

    224. MrVito says:

      Group marching down the highway in Milwaukee.

    225. MrVito says:

      FBI is on scene where officers were shot.

    226. Tina says:

      Looks like both officers are in the hospital. No,word on condition.

    227. Marv says:

      #234 MrVito,

      What’s going on in Milwaukee?

    228. Phil says:

      This is just a dress rehearsal for nation wide riots that are planned for the days following the election while the mail in ballots are counted and chaos reigns.

      It’s been in the planning stages for months and they still have 40 days to organize further. Nation wide riots tacitly supported by one of America’s political parties and stirred up by the willing media.

      Those riots will be epic.

    229. MrVito says:

      People getting arrested in Austin.

    230. MrVito says:

      Hopefully not much Marv.

    231. MrVito says:

      Car attacked with skateboards in St Pete. For not stopping.

    232. MrVito says:

      Group detained outside the hospital in Louisville.

    233. Tina says:

      My governor dumpster only activated 500 national guard.

      What an idiot.

    234. Marv says:

      Tina,

      You still in CA?

    235. Tina says:

      Ky governor *

    236. MrVito says:

      David Hookstead
      @dhookstead
      ·
      59m
      Now, police scanner is saying rioters opened fire on a random woman in her car.

      Another woman reports her daughter has been attacked by two women.

      Things are unraveling fast in Louisville.

    237. Marv says:

      Tina,

      OK, I was wondering which state you were referring to.

    238. Tina says:

      Marv, yes still in sf.

    239. Tina says:

      500 ain’t enough.

    240. Marv says:

      Tina,

      Are you out of the wildfire zone?

    241. MrVito says:

      Group encroaching on the highway in Providence.

    242. PresidentPaul! says:

      I think some of old timer senate dems don’t want to get rid of the filibuster bc of judicial nominations.

      They’ve already been planning on reinstating the filibuster when they get control as an easy way to stop all of Trump’s or whichever conservatives picks without hurting red state dems like Manchin. For instance he can vote for the nominee but since the filibuster rules were enacted at the beginning of the session he doesn’t have to worry.

    243. MrVito says:

      In Austin

      Savanah Hernandez
      @sav_says_
      ·
      6m
      I asked two armed members of tonight’s march if they planned on using their guns on police.

      One of them responds “legally I’m required to say no”

    244. Tina says:

      Shem Horne
      @Shem_Infinite
      ·
      5m
      FBI Director Christopher Wray was repeatedly asked about Black Lives Matter violence at his Congressional hearing last week and repeatedly sidestepped the question and refused to acknowledge it or condemn it. The head of the FBI. He should be fired immediately.

    245. Tina says:

      Marv, way out.

      I am in Sf.

    246. MrVito says:

      Tear gas in Atlanta.

    247. MrVito says:

      Arrests being made in DC

    248. Tina says:

      His interns are Tone deaf.

      (We know he is sound asleep).

      Joe Biden
      @JoeBiden
      · 11m
      We must continue to speak Breonna Taylor’s name, support her family still in grieving, and never give up on ensuring the full promise of America for every American. https://joebiden.com/2020/09/23/statement-by-vice-president-joe-biden-on-the-events-in-louisville-kentucky/

    249. mnw says:

      258 Tina

      He also said that the GJ decisions not to indict “failed to answer the calls for justice.”

      So therefore… it sounds as if Biden must’ve reviewed all the (secret by law) evidence that the GJ heard, & then formed an independent judgment of his own that the GJ decisions were not supported by that evidence– evidence which Biden has never seen?

    250. MrVito says:

      Both Officers in stable condition.

    251. lisab says:

      why do you guys riot so much?

    252. Marv says:

      lisab,

      What’s going on in MN?

    253. MrVito says:

      National Guard Present outside the hospital in Louisville.

    254. lisab says:

      i’m not from minneapolis, so i don’t know what is happening there …

      but the rest of the state seems calm.

      i’d say 10 to 1 trump to biden signs, but there are not many signs here compared to upstate ny, where there were tons of trump signs

    255. Tina says:

      “Mostly Peaceful”

      Reuters
      @Reuters
      · 40m
      Demonstrations in Louisville wore on past nightfall in defiance of a 9 p.m. curfew and remained mostly peaceful until several gunshots rang out in the midst of a skirmish between protesters and heavily armed police https://reut.rs/36181hV

    256. Tina says:

      Bill Kristol
      @BillKristol
      · 18m
      From defending the peaceful transfer of power to urging no violence on the streets, Joe Biden is the law and order candidate in 2020.

    257. lisab says:

      sorry, the democrats have NOT been condemning the violence

    258. Tina says:

      Donald J. Trump
      @realDonaldTrump
      ·
      1m
      Praying for the two police officers that were shot tonight in Louisville, Kentucky. The Federal Government stands behind you and is ready to help. Spoke to
      @GovAndyBeshear
      and we are prepared to work together, immediately upon request!

    259. MrVito says:

      Large Crowd marching in Denver also

    260. lisab says:

      marv,

      best dog fighter?

      me109, fw190, zero, spitfire or mustang?

    261. MrVito says:

      Antifa was front and center in DC with a giant flag.

    262. Justin says:

      Seems things have calmed down a bit. Soros must not have written too big a check this time.

    263. Tina says:

      EconChick/IntelChick
      @MikayesFiona
      Louisville NAACP President, Aubrey Williams, speaking to Laura Ingraham right now is backing up what the police did in Breonna Taylor case.

      Says he warned against the false CNN narrative for months.

    264. SoHope says:

      #272. Michael Vick

    265. lisab says:

      #276 lol

      i meant during ww2

    266. Marv says:

      lisab,

      Early in the war, the Zero was the best.

      When the P-51 showed up in the ETO, it was clearly superior to all others. It was much faster, more maneuverable, and had the range to get to the battle space and back. Great fighter.

    267. lisab says:

      mustang was arguably the best fighter

      but not the best dog fighter, which was clearly the zero

      which is why our pilots did not dogfight the zero 🙂

      the fw, spit, and me may also have been able to out turn the mustang, depending on altitude

    268. lisab says:

      my favourites, other than the spitfire were

      the p38

      and

      the p47

    269. lisab says:

      oh … and the mosquito!

    270. Marv says:

      lisab,

      When the F6F Hellcat appeared in the Pacific, the Zero met it’s match. Of course by then, most of the best trained Japanese pilots had been shot down.

    271. PresidentPaul! says:

      Biden is a war hawk including agitating to invade Iraq even in the 1990’s.

      You can assume Kristol thinks he can get his next war of choice if the Lincoln project is backing Biden.

    272. BennSue says:

      P-51 also had great safety features that the Zero completely lacked, such as the fuel tanks.

    273. MrVito says:

      Demonstrations in Seattle, Chicago, Las Vegas, and People blocking cars in Dallas.

    274. Marv says:

      My two favorite aircraft from WW2 are the B-25 (the Doolittle Raiders) and the C-47 (D-Day, Dick Winters, etc)

    275. lisab says:

      When the F6F Hellcat appeared in the Pacific, the Zero met it’s match. Of course by then, most of the best trained Japanese pilots had been shot down.
      ————————–

      yeah, but long before that the p40 had been kicking zero ass for a long time …

      fly straight at the zero playing chicken … and if you miss … keep the throttle open and fly away in a dive

      having a plane that turns on a dime does not help if the enemy won’t play …

      it had the same problem as the fokker tri-plane, great in a dogfight, but not so good if the other pilot flies through you

    276. MrVito says:

      Liz Jones
      @LizJone26271417
      · 8m
      9/23/20 Seattle, WA | Over 200 protesters in black bloc are preparing to begin a “direct action” march over Breonna Taylor decision.

      Good luck Seattle.

    277. Tina says:

      More Hoe.

      Kamala Harris
      @KamalaHarris
      · 1h
      Tonight, I’m thinking of Breonna Taylor’s family who is still grieving the loss of a daughter and sister.

      We must never stop speaking Breonna’s name as we work to reform our justice system, including overhauling no-knock warrants.

    278. lisab says:

      i liked the b-25 too, but the later gunship version with the giant cannon in it

      the zero could out-turn a spitfire btw

    279. Marv says:

      That’s it for me. Goodnight folks.

    280. lisab says:

      i also liked the c-47 but the civilian dc-3 version

      i saw a picture of a c-47/dc-3 with one wing replaced by a dc-2 wing!

    281. lisab says:

      awwwww marv …

      they are only going to talk about rioting the rest of the night!

      boo!

    282. PresidentPaul! says:

      It’s ridiculous that all of these people think they know all of the details that happened with breonna Taylor incident, and continue condemn people in a situation they know little if anything about. Not saying I do but that’s why there are courts for these things.

    283. mnw says:

      lisab

      You got your ears on?

      You quoted Richard III the other day.

      WITHOUT googling, can you quickly identify the play here? (This is my view regarding Trump’s SCOTUS appointment, btw):

      “If t’were done, t’were best done quickly.”

      (I changed it a little, to aid quick comprehension)

    284. NYCmike says:

      Wash your hands after that comment.

    285. Tgca says:

      Oh this is so sweet.

      TDS woman gets into fender bender in front of police while frantically taunting Trump supporters. She leans all the way out her window with both ha Drs off the wheel yelling at folks and flipping them off while her car is moving and then her car rolls into the vehicle in front of her. Police sirens go off and then police approach her. Hope to see more of what happened.

      It’s pure ecstasy to hear the Trump supporters laugh and mock her. The last laugh in the video is classic smack down. She sits in her car all frustrated it appears as police approach her.

      She thought she was mocking them and in the end, she became the fool. This vid has gotten like over 2M hits, probably more since I’ve seen it in at least two other sites.

      Dumb ass. Now she is at risk of getting this reported and having her insurance increase for a moving violation…I assume it’s a moving violation to have your car in drive and do what she did. She could have ran over a pedestrian if someone was crossing the street.

      https://twitter.com/WOP_45/status/1308414392313221123

    286. Tgca says:

      Twee hundred!

      Oooooh!

    287. PresidentPaul! says:

      The governments are right about face masks.

      Say if if person A wears a mask he reduces spread by 50%. Then person B wears a mask, and he also reduces spread by 50%. If both wear a mask, then you would reduce spread by 75%.

      Then you add in that say you reduce the viral load inhaled by even 50%, you probably reduce infection by 90% or even more because of nonlinearities.

      So these governments essentially need to continue to require masks despite the annoyance of the populace.

    288. mnw says:

      297 NYC

      Very good.

      Sorry about the Isles, btw.

    289. mnw says:

      Tg

      You said something earlier about people here disrespecting you (or something).

      We all (heart) you, & this place wouldn’t be very amusing without your comments.

    290. Tgca says:

      303

      WHAT!

      Someone here is disrespecting me?

      Who? Let them say something to my face.

      I’ll F*CK them up if someone disrespects me.

      I’m from street. Don’t mess with me.

      I’m a gangsta bishes!

    291. lisab says:

      mnw,

      the scottish play of course

    292. mnw says:

      lisab

      I figured you’d know right off.

      The original quote is confusing, so I took liberties with it. Me bad.

    293. DonnaJaM says:

      ??? ?????? ??? ?????????? ?????? ????? ? ????? ?????? ? ???????? ???????? ??????????????. … ?????? ?????, ??? ??? ?????? ?????? ?????????? ?????? ????? ? ?? ????? ??????? ????? ???????????? ? ??????? ??????????? ? ???????????? ??????? ?????, ????????????. ????? ? ?????? ???????????, ?????… ?????? ????????? ?? https://female-happiness.com/interesnoe/raznoe/11757-gde-uznat-gruppu-krovi-osnovnaya-dokumentatsiya-i-diagnosticheskie-issledovaniya.html

    294. jdikiirf says:

      ???????? seo ????????? ??????????? ?????, ???????? ?????? ?? ??????????? ????? ?? ???? ????????? ???????? ?? ?????? ?????????? ? ????? ????? pokras7777????????? ????? ??? ????
      .??? ?? ???????? ???? ???????? ?????? ????? ???? ??? ??????

    295. Sheeple,Jr. says:

      Here are a bunch of new polls to start the day.
      The results are typical except for the Virginia Poll from CNU which shows Biden only +5 in the State.

      https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

    296. JeffP says:

      Trump got trapped again by his words taken out of context. Maybe there is something wrong with me…but I got in contest what he meant by what he said. However…Asked a question about peaceful transfer of power…he responds with concern to election fraud and reality of long legal battle…people take this as SEE he doesn’t believe in a peaceful transition of power. Again taken out of context and words twisted…Press Secretary will clarify today. When will this guy learn to be more careful…never. But I really don’t care.

    297. PhilS says:

      311:

      Gee, you wonder how he became president!!!

    298. PhilS says:

      Trump wins not by answering others’ questions, but by talking about what he wants to talk about.

      That’s what leaders do. Set the framework, nit try to fit into someone else’s formulation.

    299. OHIO Joe says:

      If an election were held today, here is how I see the landscape:

      States where Trump has a double digit lead
      NE 3

    300. OHIO Joe says:

      Sorry, not finished the list.

    301. Todd McCain says:

      I am concerned about these recent Iowa numbers. This should be a state Trump has in the bag.

    302. JeffP says:

      Thank God for cultural warriors that expose and fight this radical craziness.

    303. Waingro says:

      Here is a VA poll showing Trump only down 5 among LV’s 48-43.

    304. Hugh says:

      IA is in the bag.

    305. Pitchaboy says:

      Haven’t found Biden camp anywhere in IA. If it was close, they would be there.

    306. DW says:

      What have I been saying about VA? Keep an eye on it. Now we know what Trump’s internal polling looked like that prompted his team to do a rally on Friday in Newport news

    307. Sheeple,Jr. says:

      #310- Jeff
      Just the usual media-produced outrage of the day.
      Remember last week, H. Clinton demanded that Biden NEVER CONCEDE!

      Waingro #’s317 & 318
      There may be something to this VA Poll because Trump suddenlyannounced a rally in Virginia in short order.

    308. OHIO Joe says:

      If an election were held today, here is how I see the landscape:

      States where Trump has a double digit lead
      NE 3
      Wyoming
      West Virginia
      ND
      OK
      Idaho
      Arkansas
      Kentucky
      SD
      Alabama
      TN
      Nebraska at large
      Utah
      Louisiana
      Missouri
      Mississippi
      NE 1
      Indiana
      AK
      Montana
      Kansas
      South Carolina
      for a total of 125 points

      State with a high single digit Trump lead
      Texas
      Ohio
      Iowa
      ME 2
      Georgia
      for a total of 79 points

      States where the trump lead is 3 to 5 points
      Florida and North Carolina
      For a total of 44 points

      States where the Trump lead is within the margin of error
      AZ and PA
      For a total of 31 points

      States where the Biden lead is within the margin of error
      Wisconsin, NE 2, Michigan, New Mexico and Nevada
      For a total of 38 points
      States where Biden leads by 3 to 5 points
      Minnesota and New Hampshire for a total of 14 points

      States where the Biden lead is in the high single digits
      Colorado, Virginia, Maine (at large) and Delaware
      For a total of 27 points

      States where the Biden lead is currently in double digits
      Oregon
      NJ
      CT
      Washington
      IL
      ME 1
      RI
      NY
      CA
      MD
      MA
      Vermont
      Hawaii
      DC
      for a total of 180 points.

      So Mr. Trumps leads today 279 to 259

      I know I am going out on a limb by putting New Mexico as a swing state, but Mr. Biden is not popular there and the Johnson vote should go largely GOP this year.

    309. PhilS says:

      “I was going to vote for Trump because of economy and jobs and middle-east peace and orange hair. But now that I know he has not said he will do a peaceful transition (whatever that means) as defined by a third-rate ‘journalist’, all that is meaningless. Joe is my man!”

    310. DW says:

      I think NH goes to Trump….that recent poll showing VT only 23 point lead says more about NH.

    311. PhilS says:

      https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2020/08/13/important-issues-in-the-2020-election/pp_2020-08-13_voter-attitudes_4-01/

      Top 2020 issues per Pew Research.

      Somehow “peaceful transition of power” did not make the list. Imagine that.

    312. MichiganGuy says:

      “Outside of my new phone being stolen and a punch to the back of the head, I’m a-okay guys and have never been more passionate about reporting on the truth. BLM and ANTIFA are fascists who will silence anyone who shows the reality of who they really are. ”
      .
      https://twitter.com/sav_says_/status/1308958031858872321?s=19
      .
      She is one brave girl. Praying God watches over her.

    313. Tina says:

      Don’t forget Florida

      Jason Miller
      @JasonMillerinDC
      · 1h
      ‘Something’s in the water’: Florida Republicans see surge in voter registration https://politi.co/3kNzQOD

    314. Wes says:

      DW says:
      September 24, 2020 at 8:18 am
      I think NH goes to Trump….that recent poll showing VT only 23 point lead says more about NH.

      DW, I’m not sure I buy the logic that Trump will carry NH because Biden is up “only” 23 in VT.

    315. Tina says:

      Baris sees it as a 3 point win for trump.

      Peoples_Pundit
      @Peoples_Pundit
      ·
      11h
      If you watched #InsideTheNumbers today, then you know there’s ZERO chance the electorate in Florida will be D+8.

      Florida is currently D+2 with EVERY record on file.

      When we use machine-learning to determine voters at least 50% likely, which is generous to Ds, it’s R+1.

    316. LivintheDream says:

      #329

      You can see the narrative being written now if Slo Jo loses. “We lost because the pandemic kept us from motivating our voters to the polls. Our troops did the responsible thing by not going door to door and that affected our turnout. The Republicans didn’t care about safety in ensuring victory”

    317. Country Dick Montana says:

      Interesting article at Fox about gun sales since March in the swings states. FBI background checks up 93%. Some sates are over 100%. Interestingly enough PA is the lowest at 27%, but we already have lots of guns here.

      The question would be, how many first time buyers and how many just stocking up.

    318. PhilS says:

      FL was R+1 in 2016.

    319. PhilS says:

      NH has a good chance of flipping to Trump, based on:

      1) Small margin in 2016 (0.37%), second smallest after MI.
      2) Trump is a better candidate than 2016
      3) Biden is a worse candidate than Hillary in 2016

    320. Country Dick Montana says:

      One of the margins in NH is the college kids that are bussed to the polling places and allowed to register on the same day. I have relatives in NH who say that this is a real problem for the locals every 4 years, especially when the professors tell the kids how to vote on LOCAL issues.

      So, some of that will depend on the number of colleges in session and actually meeting for face to face classes.

    321. Stonewall DW says:

      329 – Wes, it isn’t just that, its also the Siena/NT Times poll last week showing Biden up only 3 points in NH, with a lot of undecided.

    322. Stonewall DW says:

      Christopher Newport University

      VIRGINIA

      September 15–23, 2016

      Hillary 48
      Trump 38

      VIRGINIA

      September 9-21, 2020

      Biden 48
      Trump 43

    323. hugh says:

      52 to 48 in ras

    324. Stonewall DW says:

      Huge pile of SurveyMonkey registered voter “polls” just dumped out…all 50 states, and lots of laughs. If I recall, this is not random polling, but self-selection. They show Trump +2 in NV, tied in AZ, Trump +6 in IA, but Trump trailing by 6 in GA and FL.

    325. Gordon Allen says:

      Just back from SE New Hampshire and if signs and stickers mean anything Trump is in good shape. Trump everywhere,Biden invisible.
      In Massachusetts we did see some Biden signs,so they exist,and few Trump signs. Go figure.

    326. Marv says:

      RAS

      52/48

      -1

    327. hugh says:

      at this trajectory trump will win in a electoral landslide and will get a vote plurality nationally. A successful seating of a new SC justice will depress their base. And they are already depressed except for the really angry ones who are tearing up democrat run cities.

    328. jaichind says:

      One indicator that is now working against Trump is: positive stock market returns 7/31 to 10/31 means incumbent party wins while negative stock market returns 7/31 to 10/31 means opposition party wins.

      Right now the Dow index which was up 10% since 7/31 is now only up 0.6% since 7/31. We are getting close to the market being a negative signal for Trump re-election

      In 2016 7/31 to 10/31 ended up being -1%

    329. Chicon says:

      344 – small sample size….

    330. MichiganGuy says:

      #340 SurveyMonkey polls are garbage. Even the leftwing 538 gives them a D- with a political bias of D+5
      .
      https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

    331. MrVito says:

      Another lid for Joe.

    332. BayernFan says:

      Debate Prep

    333. Tina says:

      Another campaign lid called today for camp China Biden.

    334. Tina says:

      Sorry, Vito, I did not see your post.

    335. Scooterboy says:

      Well, hopefully if Biden is elected President, we won’t have anything important happen in the World after 9:30 a.m.
      Otherwise, Biden won’t be available to deal with it.

    336. Tina says:

      No, more like a welfare check.

      If he were doing debate prep, wouldn’t they call a lid a few days in advance?

    337. Tina says:

      With respect to Ras., it’s 9 straight days of trump being at or above 50 percent.

      This is significant.

    338. Gordon Allen says:

      I’m a broken record on this but a 52% approval( if accurate) for an incumbent President inexorably leads to a clear win. Period.

    339. Stonewall DW says:

      Looking at the polling, it seems the places Trump is suddenly seeing real movement, even among the media and university polling is the south and south-east. AZ, FL, GA, and now even VA. NC seems more immune to the movement, which is not surprising given the higher percentage of intellectuals in the research triangle.

      So I ask myself, why in the South, but no movement in the rust belt?

      Could it be the rust belt states have a lot of people who are less confident to express support of Trump to a stranger, compared with the south?

    340. Chicon says:

      Trump is different; shocking, I know. It could be that a few percent of the people who think he’s done a good job won’t vote for him anyway because they think he’s a Richard.

    341. jaichind says:

      One problem with using Rasmussen Approval number to project election results is that in Rasmussen Black approval are at 35% and non-Black non-White approval are at 46%. It is not reasonable for Trump to expect those types of votes share with Blacks or non-Black non-White voters even if it will clearly be better than 2016. Trump’s approval with Whites are 53% which should be viewed as a danger. Overall I fail the see how the Rasmussen internals means Trump is a lock for victory.

    342. MichiganGuy says:

      “Biden campaign called a lid at 9:20 am today. Harris also has no public events on her schedule. Meanwhile, Trump has events in Charlotte, North Carolina and Jacksonville, Florida. Pence is on a bus tour w/ stops in Eau Claire, Wisconsin and Minneapolis, Minnesota.”
      .
      https://twitter.com/JustinGomezABC/status/1309125421867433986?s=19

    343. PhilS says:

      You fail to see a lot of things.

      Concern noted.

    344. jason says:

      DW, I’m not sure I buy the logic that Trump will carry NH because Biden is up “only” 23 in VT.”

      Hillary won by 26 in VT. But the northeast corner of VT was a lot closer and in fact Trump won a county bordering NH.

      23 is not statistically significant so I don’t agree with the logic either.

      But if it was outside the MOE, say Biden only up by 20 or less, you could make the case that there is enough synergy there for Trump to overcome the 0.5% NH loss in 2016.

    345. Hugh says:

      357. It’s easy. Lots of people don’t approve of trump for personal reasons and lots of people don’t approve of Biden for many other reasons. So if I don’t approve of either one who will I vote for? I’m betting many will vote for trump

    346. Robbie says:

      Marv says:
      September 23, 2020 at 10:59 pm
      lisab,

      Early in the war, the Zero was the best.

      When the P-51 showed up in the ETO, it was clearly superior to all others. It was much faster, more maneuverable, and had the range to get to the battle space and back. Great fighter.

      – The ZERO gained speed and maneuverability by sacrificing weight and armor. The skin on a ZERO is so thin you can dent the it by just pressing a bit too hard on it.

    347. PhilS says:

      Some people will approve of Trump’s job and still vote Bidden because they have always voted Dem. Or their dads have.

      It takes all kinds.

    348. Stonewall DW says:

      360 – I was building in the natural bias that most polls of VT would overstate the Dem number, compared to actual result. It won’t take much of a needle move to get NH into Trump’s column, and like I said, NYTimes/Siena has Biden up only 3 there, with lotsa undecided.

    349. Robbie says:

      Marv says:
      September 23, 2020 at 10:59 pm
      lisab,

      Early in the war, the Zero was the best.

      When the P-51 showed up in the ETO, it was clearly superior to all others. It was much faster, more maneuverable, and had the range to get to the battle space and back. Great fighter.

      – The P-51 air intake system under the plane was ahead of its time. It effectively acted as a rudimentary form of a jet engine.

      And when the P-51 switched to the all glass canopy in the D model, it became a true killing machine.

    350. mnw says:

      Trump could & should have articulated a better answer on “peaceful transition.” He was too focused on conveying 1) I’m going to win; & 2) I’m going to wait at least until I’m satisfied that all the mail-in voting returns are actually kosher.

      He should’ve just said, “Sure, if I lose, I get in the car with Vice President Biden and ride down Pennsylvania Avenue with him, just like all Presidents do when they leave office. But…that’s one car ride I’m not ever going to have to take!”

    351. phoenixrisen says:

      #337 — Oof, borderline boom. And a university poll no less. I am willing to bet VA is tied or a slight Biden lead within margin of error. VA being in play is huge.

    352. MrVito says:

      “I don’t want to say who it is, you don’t know that it’s her,” Trump said in response to a question from Kilmeade about what it would take for Barrett not to be his nominee. “She’s incredible, an incredible person, brilliant and everything else.”

      “It’s a woman,” Trump said of who his eventual nominee would be. “I have five women that I’m very much looking at … I think in my mind I have one that I, I like them all. I mean, to be honest, I could put any of the five, they’re all genius.”

    353. jason says:

      One problem with using Rasmussen Approval number to project election results is that in Rasmussen Black approval are at 35% and non-Black non-White approval are at 46%. It is not reasonable for Trump to expect those types of votes share with Blacks or non-Black non-White voters even if it will clearly be better than 2016. Trump’s approval with Whites are 53% which should be viewed as a danger. Overall I fail the see how the Rasmussen internals means Trump is a lock for victory.”

      The fundamental problem with you logic is that you are not consistent.

      If you think 35% approval with blacks is unreasonable (which I do too) then by the same token you cannot accept 53% among whites to be reasonable. In 2016 Trump got 58% of the white vote.

      “White voters, who make up 69% of the total, voted 58% for Trump and 37% for Clinton. Non-white voters, who make up 31% of the electorate, voted 74% for Clinton and 21% for Trump.”

    354. Tina says:

      Jebots boo trump and yell vote him out while he paid his respect to RBG.

      https://twitter.com/Kevinliptakcnn/status/1309131222589865984

    355. Tina says:

      An incumbent. President at 52 percent, will not poll 45 percent on Election Day.

      Baris has noted this several times.

      An incumbent will likely do even better than his approval rate on Election Day.

    356. jaichind says:

      370. Fair feedback. It is just that you have to assume Whites vote in greater numbers for Trump than Trump approval. Is is very likely this is the case. But is an assumption. On the other hand I am pretty such non-Whites will NOT vote at levels of Rasmussen approval levels.

    357. MrVito says:

      Stephen L. Miller
      @redsteeze
      ·
      25m
      Biden stated yesterday he hadn’t started debate prep, so what’s the excuse for the previous 8 days this month?

    358. MrVito says:

      American Journalists Publish Chinese Propaganda
      @JohnEkdahl
      ·
      11m
      The debate prep excuse doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. So he’s starting at 9AM all these days? And he’s not available after that, why? Or are you trying to convince me he’s going until 11PM on marathon sessions? C’mon.

    359. PresidentPaul! says:

      Not only is nas vol out of control but now to vix itself is above 30 also known as the F bucket.

      Were patiently waiting on Trump to pass pelosi’s 2 trillion dollar stimulus or alternatively on biden to win big and pass his 20 trillion dollar stimulus to fix the issue.

      Pick your poison.

    360. Gordon Allen says:

      Phil S. They won’t. They’d say he was doing a lousy job. Can you name a President who underperformed his approval rate on election day. Obama considerably overperformed in 2012. Name a President with a 52% approval rate who lost on Election Day. Heck,one reason everyone thought Truman was a dead duck because of his miserable approval rate. I will find a way to bet you,if you wish,that if Rasmussen has Trump above 50% on November 2 he will win.You on?

    361. Stonewall DW says:

      Its simply a vote for Trump to continue Western Civilization for another four years, or a vote for Biden to end it, and replace it with anarchy, violence, and injustice.

      There’s the election.

    362. Tina says:

      Jacksonville, Florida rally today

    363. PresidentPaul! says:

      Polls, anarchy, violence dont actually matter at all when were pushing a deflation agenda like 2008 again.

      GOP gonna get monkey hammered this election if they dont shape up fast.

    364. Stonewall DW says:

      Woah, data for progress polling, a liberal Dem pollster, out with a selection of battlegrounds, and Kentucky…they have Mitch up only 7 in KY, while having James in MI down only 5 with lotsa undecided.

      James. Is. For. Real.

    365. mnw says:

      357 jaichind

      All u r saying is that JA & head-2-head are two different things. We know that. However, the RAS H-2-H numbers, if correct,* would also mean Trump wins.

      Biden +1 ain’t gonna do it, because of overvoting in blue states. We all know that too. HRC “won” by +2.1%, yes? Therefore, Biden has to do at least as well as she did to win, right? If not… then what am I missing here, pls?

      *Note that I did say, “IF correct”

    366. Country Dick Montana says:

      Once again we become privy to the same advice that is being given to the Fed Board of Governors as they log in here everyday to find out how they should handle the economy.

      I know that I am getting rich.

    367. PresidentPaul! says:

      There’s no money to be made montana. If these levels of vol remain we go down every day until and past election day until someone fixes the problem. Not only that but these dollar rises are deflationary on a global scale.

    368. Stonewall DW says:

      Anecdote from VA.

      An old buddy of mine shared with me he has a circle of friends who have always been very cynical, and refuse to vote saying the candidates are all the same, nothing changes, etc…well my friend told me that all of those people have spoken to him recently with wide-eyes, and fearful countenance, telling him, ‘this is it! this is the end!’ Civilization ends with a Biden win, because AOC will be running the country proxy. They are all showing up to vote for Trump to try and stop it. I wish they had taken things serious for the last few decades, but at least its better late than never.

    369. mnw says:

      383 CDM

      Exactly.

      I try SOOO hard not to engage, but it’s hard to refrain sometimes.

    370. Country Dick Montana says:

      I just bask in the awesomeness of the analysis. That a small political blog like this one would be the conduit for all that knowledge is amazing.

      I just don’t understand why it is given away for free.

    371. jaichind says:

      382. I do not disagree with anything you said. I am just saying to assume a Trump victory JUST based on a 52% approval is not logical IF the 52% approval rating is based on very high approval numbers (from a historical point of view) of non-Whites. I agree if the Rasmussen poll has Biden ahead by 1 that does seem to imply a narrow Trump victory.

    372. MVito says:

      My inbox

      ……

      Hello, you’ve been selected for a poll of Florida voters. Click here to participate: https://www.surveymonkey.com……

    373. mnw says:

      CDM

      Yes! As you undoubtedly know, proprietary investment newsletters cost hundreds of dollars a year, & some of them have thousands of paying subscribers. I guess he doesn’t;’t need that chump change?

    374. Todd McCain says:

      Monmouth Iowa: Trump 50-44; Ernst down 3.

    375. MrVito says:

      Part of that link I deleted includes my phone number… so how can I be sure that this information doesn’t get broadcast out somewhere I don’t want.

    376. jason says:

      Overall I fail the see how the Rasmussen internals means Trump is a lock for victory.”

      I think the general feeling here is that polls are overstating Biden’s chances and understating Trump’s.

      Lock for victory? No.

    377. mnw says:

      jaichind

      Not at all sure Trump is only behind by 1% nationally. But… if he IS? Then it won’t be “narrowly.”

      “Narrowly” was 2016, when Trump was BEHIND by 2%. If Biden is ahead by only 1%, including of course his massive margins in CA & NY & IL, why would it be “narrowly” this time?

    378. PresidentPaul! says:

      Economics, finance and politics are the same thing.

      Ive been saying since july that if the GOP doesnt pass pelosi’s bill we would be going to go over a fiscal cliff, and this rising vol is just further proving the thesis correct.

      It’s going to continue right through election day, and the time is now very short for the GOP to try to salvage this election.

    379. Tina says:

      Breaking

      New home sales top 1 million. First time since 2006.

      V shaped recovery.

    380. MrVito says:

      I bet none of those guys in DWs anecdote would dare give info to a pollster.

    381. Waingro says:

      Check out this trash.

      Political Polls
      @Politics_Polls
      #KSsen:
      Bollier (D) 40%
      Marshall (R) 40%
      Buckley (L) 5%
      .
      H2H:
      Bollier (D) 42%
      Marshall (R) 42%

      @DataProgress
      /
      @IndivisibleTeam
      (D), LV, 9/14-19
      https://filesforprogress.org/memos/2020-senate-project/week-1/topline-reports/DFP_MI_Week1_Senate_toplines.pdf

    382. Tina says:

      Here is the census bureau chart on new home sales.

      Sure looks like a v recovery.

      https://twitter.com/uscensusbureau/status/1309132169336455176/photo/1

    383. MrVito says:

      It’s quiet in the Atlantic

      Too quiet….

    384. Country Dick Montana says:

      DW – Call me skeptical on VA. There are 100 2A sanctuary counties there which is a plus, but I just don’t see how it can the monolithic, DEM voting, Federal workforce in the DC suburbs.

      If the GOP gets everything, it would behoove them to either significantly cut the Federal work force. Or pull a Robert Byrd (famous for moving federal agencies to WV) and spread it out all over the country. Primarily to solid Blue and Solid Red states. I could even see some of the DEM Senators and Congress-people going along with it.

    385. Tina says:

      Wrong Wray, why the change from a week ago?

      Shem Horne
      @Shem_Infinite
      · 12m
      Director Wray: “ANTIFA is a real thing. It is not a fiction. Now, we have seen organized tactical activity at both the local and regional level. We have seen ANTIFA adherents coalescing and working together in what I would describe as small groups and nodes…”
      Show this thread

    386. jason says:

      Why our future is socialism sooner or later.

      The Harvard Crimson — Harvard University’s student newspaper — published the results of its annual freshman survey, which revealed significant declines in conservatism among its incoming students.

      The Crimson surveyed over 76 percent of the Harvard College Class of 2024, asking them about their beliefs, lifestyle, and habits.

      Harvard’s new freshmen are overwhelmingly left-leaning: 72.4 percent self-identify as either “very liberal” or “somewhat liberal,” while only 7.4 percent self-identify as “very conservative” or “somewhat conservative.” Meanwhile, 20.3 percent self-identify as “moderate.”

      [RELATED: Harvard Public Health promotes article questioning if 2 plus 2 equals 4]

      “Likewise, 80.7 percent of freshmen have a“strongly unfavorable” opinion of President Donald Trump. Another 8.2 percent view the president “somewhat” unfavorably. Only 4.7 percent view Trump either “somewhat” or “strongly” favorable.

      The number of self-identified Republicans among Harvard freshmen halved in a single year. In the class of 2023, 12.4 percent identified as “somewhat conservative” or “very conservative.”

      On the issue of defunding or abolishing police departments, over 60 percent support the movement. However, when it came to abolishing the Harvard University Police Department, just 29.3 percent were in favor.”

    387. Country Dick Montana says:

      Antifa = RICO

    388. Hugh says:

      My final point on ras. He thinks it will be a plus 4 dem turnout. Enthusiasm translates into turnout. You can argue over the degree. To think that dem turnout will be better relative rep in 2020 versus 2016 makes no sense. Yet that is what ras is saying. I do not buy it.

    389. mnw says:

      Wain

      ANY outfit with the word “progress” in its name…

      Wonder why the DEMs aren’t pouring money into KS, then?

    390. Waingro says:

      More stuff for the heap.

      Political Polls
      @Politics_Polls
      NEW
      @SurveyMonkey
      Poll (RV, 9/1-21):

      IOWA
      Trump 51% (+5)
      Biden 46%
      .
      TEXAS
      Trump 50% (+3)
      Biden 47%
      .
      NEVADA
      Trump 49% (+2)
      Biden 47%
      .
      ARIZONA
      Trump 49%
      Biden 49%
      .
      NEW MEXICO
      Biden 50% (+2)
      Trump 48%
      10:42 AM · Sep 24, 20

    391. jason says:

      Ive been saying since july that if the GOP doesnt pass pelosi’s bill”

      This is hilarious.

      Only in a Paulbot’s mind does he think Pelosi is proposing a bill to elect Trump.

      The stupidity is astounding.

    392. jaichind says:

      385. My version of that story, which to be fair, is from 2016 is: The father an old college friend of my did some business with Trump as a vendor back in the 1980s and 1990s. My friend told me that Trump was a very crooked business person and that his father had to sue Trump several times to get the money he was due. I actually formed a very negative opinion of Trump as a person back in the early 1990s when I was in college based on what my friend told me. Then right before the 2016 election my college friend tole me that his parents are both going to vote for Trump. That is when I realized that Trump could win. BTW, his parents this time in 2020 are really pumped up to vote for Trump again.

    393. jason says:

      Actually, I would rather Trump not do worse in IA than do better in NM.

      If Trump’s percentage increases in states he lost but decreases in states he won he will lose.

    394. mnw says:

      403

      You know what Wm Buckley said about the first 100 people in the phone book, right?

    395. MrVito says:

      Idaho Christians ARRESTED for Singing Hymns Maskless Outside City Hall in County with Zero Covid Deaths

      https://pjmedia.com/culture/paula-bolyard/2020/09/24/idaho-christians-arrested-for-singing-psalms-without-masks-outside-city-hall-n960913

    396. MrVito says:

      Caroling this year is gonna be lit.

    397. Greymarch says:

      New Iowa poll: Monmouth

      PRESIDENT
      Trump 50% (+2 since August)
      Biden 44% (-1)

      SENATE
      Ernst 47% (-1)
      Greenfield 47% (+2)

      https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1309147613535637504

      If the poll is correct, and Trump is +6 in IA, that means Minnesota is razor-close.

      I’ve been saying for months that Trump’s best battle-ground midwest state, (I dont consider PA in the midwest, and OH is no longer a battleground state. OH is red) is Minnesota. Between WI, MI, and MN, I think Trump has his best chance with MN.

    398. jason says:

      Funny, I had exactly the opposite view of Trump.

      I actually admired his business skills and his chutzpah in starting new businesses, airlines, casinos, buildings you name it. I never watched the apprentice but thought it was a great idea for a show.

      I also always thought having a businessman in the WH was a huge plus. Obama in his whole life never ran a lemonade stand, and it showed.

      I really turned against him when I read his pro-Dem statements, his history as a Democrat, his contributions to Hillary, Reid and Schumer, his bizarre rants, and what I viewed as an unforgivable attack on John McCain’s military service and a racist statement on a “Mexican” Federal judge.

      In addition, I thought Rubio was much more likely to win the nomination and the GE than Trump.

      But that is all water under the bridge.

      Now Trump represents a system of government I support. Biden represents a system of government I abhor.

    399. MrVito says:

      “ David Shannon, aka Chocolate Knox, said on the CrossPolitic show that Moscow police stood by and did nothing when Black Lives Matter held a Defund the Police rally in July—in front of the police station—violating both masking and social distancing orders. “No one was arrested,” he said. “No one. Zero people.”

      Shannon, who is black, said he and his wife are strong supporters of the police and that the police chief had even stopped by their house to thank them for their support. “Guys, shame on you,” he said. Shannon compared the arrests of the peaceful protesters to the civil rights movement and said that now, instead of being told to go to the back of the bus, Christians are being forced to stand in circles and being told they must limit the size of their church services. “This is ridiculous. We, just sixty years [ago], went through this and we’re back facing it again?”

    400. jaichind says:

      On

      https://electionbettingodds.com/week.html

      the state level odds and overall winner odds are beginning to converge. A month ago I think the GOP odds in places like PA WI AZ MI were all in the low 30s if not lower while Trump overall odds were around the mid 40s which made no sense since for Trump to win he had to win at least part of PA WI AZ MI. Now Trump’s overall odds are still in the mid 40s but in PA and AZ the GOP odds are up to the low 40s.

    401. Tina says:

      Well looks like from the polling

      Iowa, Ohio, and Florida are with Trump.

      If Trump wins Florida by 3%, that’s is a 300,000 vote margin.

    402. Waingro says:

      Robert C. Cahaly
      @RobertCahaly
      ·
      3m
      Our new
      @trafalgar_group
      #2020Election #MIchigan #BattlegroundState #poll conducted Sept 20-22 shows a razor thin Trump lead:
      46.7%
      @realDonaldTrump
      ,
      46.0%
      @JoeBiden
      ,
      2.1%
      @Jorgensen4POTUS
      ,
      2.0% all others,
      3.2% Und. See Report: https://thetrafalgargroup.org/news/mi-pres-0920/

    403. Boog says:

      I read somewhere that Biden is “sundowning” He has dementia, and it is getting progressively worse – but especially bad in the evenings. At this point, I would be shocked if he shows up to debate.

      But with all of these “lid” days, what are the real chances he makes it to election day? Probably still better than 50/50, but there has to be a significant chance he just doesn’t get there.

    404. Tina says:

      And add Michigan?

      It’s ovah?

      But we must watch the October surprises from the coup plotters/russian hoaxers.

    405. Gordon Allen says:

      Isn’t that a BOOM!

    406. MrVito says:

      Nah… Trafalgar is F triple minus or something.

      Hi Ho Silver said so.

    407. Waingro says:

      #422, sorry, I was busy and just quickly copy pasted.

      BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM!!!!

    408. MrVito says:

      Hi Ho Silver… A-WEIGH!

    409. Stonewall DW says:

      So Western Civilization might hang on 0.7 point gap in Michigan.

    410. Stonewall DW says:

      Start placing your bets on what Trafalgar will show for the senate race in MI.

      I say James +3

    411. MrVito says:

      If more peace deal come out, Trump may pull away in the upper Midwest.

    412. MrVito says:

      I’m curious how Trump is doing with Muslim moderates.

    413. MrVito says:

      Cry for help?

      ………

      Detroit Free Press
      @freep
      · 7m
      #BREAKING: @GovWhitmer, @NYGovCuomo call for congressional inquiry into Trump COVID response https://bit.ly/3kNgh9w

    414. mnw says:

      If anyone isn’t familiar with it, Wm Buckley famously said, “I would rather be governed by the first 100 people in the Boston phone book than by the faculty at Harvard College.”

      I read a good article today about Pelosi & Schumer saying, “Nothing is off the table.” The article made the point that “nothing is off the table” for Trump, either.

    415. MrVito says:

      It’s all about that base.

      ………….

      Guy Benson
      @guypbenson
      ·
      1h
      ? Joni Ernst’s Democratic opponent in #IASen has evolved from opposing court-packing to, “I wouldn’t say I’ve formed an opinion on that.”

    416. Gordon Allen says:

      If Trump is up 6 in Iowa,up slightly in Michigan,in a virtual tie in PA,and leading comfortably in Ohio,would that mean for sure Wisconsin AND Minnesota are on the cusp too? These double digits leads reported in Minnesota for Biden are incomprehensible.

    417. Stonewall DW says:

      By the way, late last night there was a new PA poll by Franklin and Marshall College.

      Last year at this general time they had it…

      Hillary 47 (Hillary +9)
      Trump 38
      Johnson 5

      Now they have 2020:

      Biden 48 (Biden +6)
      Trump 42

    418. MrVito says:

      Franklin and Marshall was openly called out by Susquehanna last week for their crap polling.

    419. MrVito says:

      F and M final PA poll was Clinton +11 with a MOE of 5.1.

    420. MrVito says:

      FOX

      LMPD Major Aubrey Gregory, who is White, was treated and released from University Hospital with a leg wound after being shot beneath his hip. Officer Robinson Desrouches, who is Black, was struck in the abdomen is in stable condition after undergoing significant surgery and is expected to recover. LMPD also released two photos of the officers wounded.

    421. Wes says:

      DW, since 2000, VT has voted Dem by margins of 10, 20, 37, 35, and 28. A Biden lead of 23 doesn’t look like inflated polling to me. I’d need more concrete evidence before I declared Trump would win NH.

    422. Stonewall DW says:

      Wes, for the third time now, there was just a Siena/NY Times poll of NH showing Biden just +3 with lots of undecided.

    423. Stonewall DW says:

      My goodness, while Biden stays on bed-rest getting his meds, Trump is adding to his schedule. He already had FIVE(!) rallies scheduled this week, and they just added two events on Friday, prior to his 9 PM rally in Newport News, VA.

      President Donald J. Trump’s Remarks at Latinos for Trump Roundtable in Doral, FL
      Friday 10:00 AM

      President Donald J. Turmp Delivers Remarks on Black Economic Empowerment: The Platinum Plan in Atlanta, GA
      Friday 1:30 PM

    424. jason says:

      Right, I think it would have to be under 20 in VT, 23 seems to close to MOE.

    425. jason says:

      Trump needs to prep for the debate, although he probably doesn’t think he needs to.

      The questions will be brutal, Biden will likely have them in advance, the moderator will protect him, and Trump this time is expected to win.

    426. jaichind says:

      442. The historical trend has been that the sitting president does badly in the first debate but then bounces back in the later debates. On paper there is no suck risk with Biden as the opponent but the expectations are so low PLUS clear biased moderators could ambush Trump.

    427. Wes says:

      Well, fair enough. In the same time period, NH has gone GOP +1 once and Dem +1, +10, +6, and +.3.

      Still not seeing a reason to say it’ll flip. I could be missing something, but I find no concrete evidence to support predicting a flip.

    428. Stonewall DW says:

      Chris Wallace won’t give Biden the questions. He is a big liberal, but of the sort like Tim Russert.

    429. jason says:

      Biden will be asked how his family tragedies have shaped his life.

      He will be asked “Obamacare has already accomplished a lot, what more needs to be done”.

      Trump will be asked what percentage of the 200k COVID deaths he feels personally responsible for.

    430. jason says:

      Chris Wallace won’t give Biden the questions. He is a big liberal, but of the sort like Tim Russert.”

      Let’s get real.

      He is not the only one who will see the questions, they will be leaked to Biden, bet on it.

    431. jason says:

      Tim Russert was no paragon of virtue.

      He lied his head off to convict Scooter Libby.

    432. OHIO Joe says:

      “He lied his head off to convict Scooter Libby.” Bingo!

    433. Stonewall DW says:

      Wes, I am not seeing anything or saying anything concrete about most any aspect of this election. Just saying that given how close NH was last time, and given the overall closeness of the race, I see this is a great chance at a flip. Given the current trajectory, I would expect it on election night.

    434. Scooterboy says:

      So Survey Monkey polls has Trump +2 in Nevada, only +3 in Texas, -2 in New Mexico, but -9 in North Carolina.

      And you wonder why people have little faith in polls.

    435. Stonewall DW says:

      Well, Wallace is the best of the three moderators, so Trump does need to do reasonably well in the first debate.

      He needs to focus on numbers and answer every question by describing his many successes as POTUS.

      This if in fact the debates happen.

      But I am well aware that in 2004, Tim Russert was the one trying to give early hope to Kerry by saying, “Well Tom [Brokaw], if its too close to call in South Carolina, then its going to be a long night for the president” and then in 2016, it was Chris Wallace who said almost the exact same thing after Fox News said SC was too close to call.

    436. Scooterboy says:

      I remember several years ago, many here never thought Pennsylvania would flip to a Republican. I know, cause I was one of them. Trump completely changed the map.

    437. Stonewall DW says:

      Democratic Party Platform:
      1) Anti-Police
      2) Pro-Looting
      3) Sieze retirement savings
      4) Sieze guns
      5) Pro-illegal immigration
      6) Rural America must bail out the failed Democrat cities
      7) If you are not a person of color, you are a racist whether you want to be or not.
      8) Pro-mutilation of young children
      9) Open prison doors and let them all go free
      10) End the free speech of anyone who dissents
      11) Anti-National Anthem
      12) Pro-Mail out ballots to all people: citizens, non-citizens, living, and dead.
      13) Pro-anarchy
      14) Pro-cancel culture
      15) Pro-rationing of gov’t controlled healthcare
      16) Pro-Force taxpayers to pay off student loan debt instead of the students who took the loans.
      17) Pro-“Green” new deal to devastate the economy with crippling regulations and destroy the energy industry.
      18) Pro-“Republicans are enemies of the state” (so aim your weapons at them carefully)
      19) Endless mob violence unless you vote Democrats into office
      20) Pro-never ending shut downs to keep everyone under government control
      21) Pro-send millions of jobs back to China
      22) Pro-never ending of jobless benefits
      23) Pro-living wage
      24) DC to become 51st state
      25) Anti-Peace in the middle east
      26) Pro-sex with minors
      27) Anti-vaccine until after the election.
      28) Pro-replacing the court system with lynch mobs.

    438. Todd McCain says:

      442. Trump doesn’t prepare for debates; he loves to just wing it. With all the “Slow Joe” commentary, Biden is basically only going to need to show up to be declared the winner. Wouldn’t it be great if the president just prepared one time for a debate?

    439. Tina says:

      I did not realize that trump is in NC today.

      Justin Gomez
      @JustinGomezABC
      ·
      3h
      Biden campaign called a lid at 9:20 am today. Harris also has no public events on her schedule.

      Meanwhile, Trump has events in Charlotte, North Carolina and Jacksonville, Florida. Pence is on a bus tour w/ stops in Eau Claire, Wisconsin and Minneapolis, Minnesota.

    440. Waingro says:

      Wallace was very solid in the debate he moderated in 2016. By FAR the best of the 3.

    441. Stonewall DW says:

      A portion of debate prep is being out there sharpening your stump speech. Trump has been doing that, while all Biden can do is mumble about class warfare, quartermasters, and the ladies’ floor of department stores.

      Like I said yesterday, most of the people who barely follow this stuff, and only pay attention to the election from the debates until election day–these people will be stunned by Biden’s decline, compared to how they remembered him as Vice Potus years ago.

    442. Stonewall DW says:

      So apparently the media has no curiosity as to why a major party candidate calls it a day at 9:20 AM this close to an election.

    443. MrVito says:

      Doesn’t Trump get debate prep at every presser?

    444. Tina says:

      Wallace May try to be fair. He seemed upset that Biden would not go on his program.

      I also think he was one of the few that called out the ABC Undecided event, where 10/13 questioners were drat plants.

      Because Abc could not spend five minutes researching their backgrounds

    445. NYCmike says:

      I think that Trump is better served being out on the stump, and giving interviews/townhalls to ABC instead of sitting down doing debate prep. He is not a conventional candidate, don’t make him into one.

    446. Stonewall DW says:

      YouGov national poll of RVs tightened from 44/38 yesterday to 45/40 today.

    447. Tina says:

      Do t put much into the debate prep.

      Trump will do some.

      But he does more pressers and answers more questions by reporters. Every day, he seems to die a chopper presser.

      One could also get overloaded with debate prep.

      See Gw Bush 2004

      Or Quittens 2012, 2nd debate when Jabba the Hutt interfered

    448. NYCmike says:

      Has anything happened with the Joe Rogan offer for a 4-hour debate?

      I think the fact that Rogan is neutral-to-really-not-for-Biden in the race, and Glen Beck being pro-Trump is a nice batch of votes that Trump did not have in 2016.

    449. Tina says:

      Trump could also stage something like the 2nd debate of 2016.

      Remember, he had Clinton’s rape victims there. This made Hillary so mad that she was even more unlikeable.

      Trump got the better of her, when’s he tried (stupidly) to compare herself to Abe Lincoln.

      Also, the you will be in jail exchange.

    450. Tina says:

      It also makes no sense that when he calls a lid, hoe Harris does as well.

      Remember, she is such a “mighty” veep nominee. Best evah.

    451. jason says:

      Still not seeing a reason to say it’ll flip. I could be missing something, but I find no concrete evidence to support predicting a flip.”

      In my view, regardless of Vermont, the best argument that it could flip was how close it was in 2016 where Hillary won by 0.5%, statistically insignificant.

      I also doubt Jorgensen will get 31k or 4% like Johnson did.

    452. jason says:

      Doesn’t Trump get debate prep at every presser?”

      If he does, it is not that good.

    453. jason says:

      I bet Pence will prepare.

    454. Stonewall DW says:

      468 – and the fact that many Universities are online only for the fall, or strictly limiting contact between students and professors.

      Many have pointed out the online, but even for those whose students are on campus, from what I am observing, many colleges have rules that state students have to stay in certain clusters. 1. Their dorm room. They are not allowed to enter other rooms. 2. Who they eat with. 3. The classes they attend. This way, if one person in any of these groups gets COVID, the rest of the group is isolated.

      Now they may well still aggressively try to get these students to vote, but its just harder than having the prof get them all riled up and peer pressured, and get them on the busses to the polls.

    455. Phil says:

      Baris repeated again today what he has said virtually every day. Do not expect the public polling to give Trump supporters any solace going into the election. These pollsters hired by media outlets are giving their clients what they want to see in the way of results.

      He says the polling is crap because

      1) they are projecting turnout models that are ridiculous and out of line with anything in the history of presidential elections. Models are projecting 180 million turnout when the last election was 139 million. Baris says it will be 145 tops. He says it will especially not be up in a year that Democratic enthusiasm for their candidate is at an all time low.

      2) those pollsters are not reaching Trump voters outside metro areas and in some cases not even trying. This underrepresented Trump segment and over represented metro sample severely skews polls towards Biden.

      3) his polling (and even the public polling) shows an historically large enthusiasm gap between supporters of each candidate. Never before in the history of polling has presidential candidate who led in enthusiasm lost. That includes 2012 when Obama led in the enthusiasm of support over Romney.

      4) In just about every swing state registration is up over Democrats over 2016. He says that matters.

    456. Waingro says:

      #470, Pence is going to clean Kamala’s clock.

    457. NYCmike says:

      “I bet Pence will prepare.”

      -Yes, as that is the type of person he has always been.

      AGAIN, do not seek to change the individual who has succeeded into someone who they are not.

      Try to assist in any way possible, but do not change their personality to fit in the conventional box society/media has said we must fit into.

    458. NYCmike says:

      “#470, Pence is going to clean Kamala’s clock.”

      -Does he need a license for that?

      Wes, please find out for me.

    459. MrVito says:

      These Bulwark types are mentally ill.

      Charlie Sykes
      @SykesCharlie
      · 58m
      For no particular reason, this morning I’ve been thinking about Nicolae Ceau?escu’s last public appearance.

      Too soon?

    460. Waingro says:

      #472, thanks for that summary, Phil. I try to catch Baris’ 2 hour show when I can. They really have become a must listen.

    461. Waingro says:

      #476, what an absolute nut job.

    462. jason says:

      How Russert lied…

      “Tim Russert’s memory changed dramatically between his initial FBI interview and Mr. Fitzgerald’s questioning of him. In November 2003, Russert (who died in 2008) told lead FBI investigator agent John C. Eckenrode that he didn’t recall raising the subject of Mr. Wilson’s wife with Mr. Libby, but couldn’t rule it out. Nine months later, and more than a year after his telephone conversation with Mr. Libby, Russert changed his story. Under questioning by Mr. Fitzgerald in August 2004, Russert insisted that he couldn’t have mentioned Ms. Plame to Mr. Libby. And that is what he told the jury in 2007.”

    463. NYCmike says:

      https://campusreform.org/?ID=15749

      -One more reason why Dennis Prager pushes “goodness” instead of “intelligence” as the preferred goal of parents for their children.

    464. Phil says:

      I never miss it,Waingo.

    465. Stonewall DW says:

      “Do not expect the public polling to give Trump supporters any solace”

      Baris isn’t exactly right here, because I am finding some solace in the recent round of Monmouth polling, not to mention the ABC/WashingtonCompost poll of FL. Now I realize that WashingtonCompost can come out today with a poll of IA showing Biden up 7 points. I would not be surprised at all.

      But to say “ANY solace” is overstating his case.

    466. Phil says:

      I think he was saying generally. Stonewall, but I get what you are saying.

    467. jason says:

      Try to assist in any way possible, but do not change their personality to fit in the conventional box society/media has said we must fit into.”

      Trump doesn’t have to change his personality, but he needs to know the facts.

      Biden won’t be fact checked, but Trump will.

      I could come up with 50 gotcha questions that might be posed.

      Nothing wrong in prepping to answer them.

    468. Stonewall DW says:

      YouGov likely voter sample today:

      44/49

      yesterday was

      42/49

    469. Cash Cow TM says:

      View from the barnyard:

      A most bizarre election…

      incumbent Trump administration beset by:

      Covid 19 and corresponding economic hit with shutdowns due to CV-19

      HOSTILE press who can’t wait to ask next gotcha question to Trump

      HOSTILE HofR led by Pelosi who monkey wrenches any positive legislation and pushes thru bogus impeachment articles on Trump

      BIG money moguls spending hundreds of millions to get Trump defeated

      Dems try dastardly things to try to torpedo decent man Kavanah for SCOTUS

      Dems cheering on and encouraging riots, BLM, and lawlessness, thugs daily attack Trump supporters

      Economy under Trump rebounding, peace breaking out in M.E. (DEMS oppose both)

      Trump very visible, campaigning everywhere

      Majority of polls say Trump is dead duck in election
      ************
      Yet his opponent, VERY OLD and mentally/physically slipping Biden stays in basement, gets no crowds, has not put forth any plan for the future and mainly says vote for me because I am not Trump.

      Dems “hail Mary” is to riot and create chaos on any pretence (factually based or not) and rely on certain key states sending out mail-in ballots to every registered voter even if they did not request one (and we all know the chaos that will result).

      But Trump is not coherent enough to explain how that is any different from normal mail-in voting that is done normally…

      Neither Biden nor Harris get grilled by press on anything, yet I am sure some reporter will ask Trump if his female SCOTUS nominee has to be someone he would grab by the p****y.

      IMO, this election is about law and order, Constitutional rule of law, the economy, SCOTUS appointments. But the Dems want it to all be about Covid-19 and wrongly hang 200,000+ deaths around Trump’s neck.

      And vote Biden in so the riots will stop. And Covid will magically disappear.

      The dastardly tactics being used by the Dems point to another Hayes-Tilden debacle of confusion, violence, stolen and burned ballots, two sets of electors picked by different states….the illegal shenanigans may take many, many months to sort out.

    470. Todd McCain says:

      There is nothing wrong with traditional debate practice and prep — Look at Pence. He is a meticulous preparer. Proper preparation prevents poor performance….

    471. Justin says:

      “Never before in the history of polling has presidential candidate who led in enthusiasm lost. That includes 2012 when Obama led in the enthusiasm of support over Romney.”

      Wasn’t the enthusiasm for Goldwater among his supporters sky high compared to Johnson?

    472. jason says:

      Color me skeptical but Wallace is not going to be fair.

      He is not going to get into Biden’s mental decline, which any responsible journalist should do.

      Wallace lives in the world of the MSM. The pressure on him to be harder on Trump is just to great. I bet most of his friends and family are liberals just like his father was.

      I actually don’t think he such a big liberal at heart. But I do think he is driven to show he is independent of Fox News to the extent that he bends over backwards to present the liberal view.

    473. mnw says:

      RCP now has MO as a tossup.

      Trump won MO by 19 points, but… apparently, there’s been a yuuge Trump-to-Biden voter preference change in my nome state! … and I just completely missed it!

      I should’ve paid more attention. I guess I went wrong when I wrongly concluded that getting rid of Sky Queen was a clue that MO might still be ruby red… but, it’s a tossup now.

    474. Phil says:

      Justin,

      No, nor was it for McGovern in 72.

    475. jason says:

      Walt, how does this election compare to the election of the Roman Empire in 64 BCE?

      What did you have to eat at the banquets?

      “Core campaign activity was canvassing in the Forum. The candidate would walk to the forum surrounded by a group of supporters, to meet another cluster of allies in the Forum. At the forum the candidate would shake hands with the eligible voters. Whispering into the ear of some candidates would be a nomenclator, a slave who had been trained to memorize the names of all the voters, so that the candidate could greet them all by name. The person running for office would wear an especially whitened toga, known as the toga candida. It is from this term that we get the modern word candidate. Some candidates may have extended their canvassing to the rural markets around Rome, once those outside the city were allowed to vote.

      Political rallies were not permitted in Roman elections. To attract voters candidates instead held banquets and gave away free tickets to the games. To pay for these either a candidate had to be wealthy, or rely on the sponsorship of wealthy friends. There are cases of people going ruinously into debt to fund their campaigns. There were no attempts to restrict who could donate or how much, but there were several laws passed attempting to limit candidate spending on banquets and games”

    476. mnw says:

      Romney had great crowds right before the 2012 GE. People forget that.

      Goldwater always had tremendous base enthusiasm, too. His final rally in San Francisco, of all places, was an astonishing conservative loveliest. I kid u not. A harbinger of the Reagan Revolution a few years later.

      That said, I still think the enthusiasm gap today is obvious & significant… & so does Jonah ‘Never Trump’ Goldberg.

    477. NYCmike says:

      https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/megan-fox/2020/09/23/ohio-woman-arrested-and-tased-for-not-wearing-a-mask-at-sons-outdoor-football-game-n960705

      -After seeing this video, maybe Trump will lose Ohio after all.

      I don’t know if I am more disturbed by the cop, that guy in red who came over to stand with him, or the people in the stands who sat like lemmings while this went on. W T F ? ! ? !

    478. SoHope says:

      First words out of Trumps mouth should be:

      “The whole country knows you aren’t the same Joe Biden you were when you were VP and that not even a high bar. You’ve refused to take a cognitive test or a drug test. ZIPPER BEAR TILE TRUCK PEBBLE….Can you repeat those 5 words in order before the American people right now right here?”

    479. Hugh says:

      No goldwater’s enthusiasm was a small dedicated group of hardcore conservatives. Trump has the enthusiasm of a populist in a time when a populist is appealing.

    480. MrVito says:

      If I’m not mistaken, that CNU poll is at -5 is closer than they ever had it in 2016.

    481. lisab says:

      Haven’t found Biden camp anywhere in IA. If it was close, they would be there.
      —————————

      biden **might** have been thinking of iowa

      because trump has not **always** had a good relationship with farmers

      but that went out the window because pelosi just screwed the farmers over

    482. lisab says:

      NH has a good chance of flipping to Trump, based on:

      1) Small margin in 2016 (0.37%), second smallest after MI.
      2) Trump is a better candidate than 2016
      3) Biden is a worse candidate than Hillary in 2016
      ———————————-

      4.) the colleges are largely closed, that is 40,000 voters

    483. The Classical Liberal says:

      Trump should get NH.

      In addition to the Libertarian Party being much weaker there were about 4000 write in votes for Republicans.
      John Kaisich – 1365
      Evan McMullin- 1064
      Mitt Romney – 540
      Paul Ruan – 280
      Jeb Bush – 230
      Marco Rubio – 136
      Ted Cruz – 129
      John McCain – 127
      Ron Paul – 98
      Ben Carson – 83
      Chtis Chtistie – 23

    484. Tina says:

      Add 7

      Political Polls
      @PpollingNumbers
      · 2m
      #NEW Ohio @QuinnipiacPoll:

      Biden 48% (+1)
      Trump 47%

    485. mnw says:

      Patriots owner Robert Kraft has beaten the rap on the “FL massage parlor hooker” case.

      Happy ending.

    486. MrVito says:

      Baris said no one in polling or either party takes Quin seriously.

    487. lisab says:

      I am pretty such non-Whites will NOT vote at levels of Rasmussen approval levels.
      ——————————–

      but many of them won’t vote for biden

      that is biden’s problem, he will not do as well as hillary among blacks, women, white collar whites or hispanics …

      he will only do better among mailed in votes from the dnc …

    488. Stonewall DW says:

      Quinnipiac also has Trump +5 in Texas.

    489. jason says:

      Nate Silverhack fraiud still has Trump with 22% chhance of winning.

      But to do that he gives Biden NC, ME2, NE2, FL, AZ and PA.

      However here are his current margins.

      NC Biden 50 Trump 49.2
      ME2 Biden 49.7 Trump 48.7
      FL Biden 50.3 Trump 48.9
      NE2 Biden 50.6 Trump 48.1
      AZ Biden 50.7 Trump 48
      PA Biden 51.9 Trump 47.4

      Not a lot of margin for error there.

    490. lisab says:

      These double digits leads reported in Minnesota for Biden are incomprehensible.
      ——————————-

      biden is not up double digits in MN

      not sure what the vote will be, but it won’t be double digits

      this is a place where people do NOT usually show support for politicians. very few political signs

      AND

      people like myself could NEVER say anything because i would lose my job … it is not allowed to even be a GREEN supporter here, you MUST be a dem supporter to work in the teachers’ union here

      but still … trump is dominating the political signs battle … it is not close

    491. jason says:

      Leftists outraged that Biden tweeted Louisville officers shot yesterday were in his prayers.

      “when people tell you they feel miserable about voting or are still apathetic about it it’s not because they don’t understand what’s at stake it’s because you’re asking them to vote for a guy who, tonight of all nights, is out here going “i hope the cops are ok”

    492. lisab says:

      Trump doesn’t prepare for debates; he loves to just wing it. With all the “Slow Joe” commentary, Biden is basically only going to need to show up to be declared the winner.
      ————————-

      however, while many here said trump consistently lost every debate in 2016

      the regular people consistently said he won every debate based on spot polls by people watching

      which, if you remember pissed all the experts at hhr off no end.

      i don’t think trump was ever rated above a C here

    493. Stonewall DW says:

      https://twitter.com/WOP_45/status/1308414392313221123

      Just need to watch it again. The best two parts are the cheers that can be heard when the stupid driver rear-ended the car in front of her, and then again when the officers approached her window.

    494. Stonewall DW says:

      509 – its evidence that the supposed leaders of the Dem party have lost control. They fueled all this, but now its gone out of control, and they can’t stop it. Sort of a Jurassic Park script.

      Its why people on the right are freaking out because we know that AOC would be running the country if Biden wins the election.

      It would be the end of Western Civilization.

    495. Robbie says:

      France reported about 16,100 new cases of coronavirus today, but the country has been, so far, reluctant to impose any new restrictions. Macron reportedly rebuffed his advisors attempts to institute another lockdown and told them do better at the jobs they already have.

      If France is smart, they’ll continue to do nothing. Coronavirus will run its course in the country and the nationwide outbreak will come mostly to an end by mid November. That would put the country on the same timeframe as FL, TX, AZ, and CA.

      France has a chance to outclass it Western European neighbors like Spain and England. If they do, their economy will be on better footing. The pseudo lockdowns in England and Spain will do great harm to economies that were already not very good.

    496. dblaikie says:

      I take Quin seriously mr vito. I just add 10 points to whatever GOP candidate is in their polls. So Trump is up 5 in Texas, for me that means Trump up 15, which is where the Gov. puts the race right.

    497. Greymarch says:

      Trump says if SCOTUS rules that Biden won, he will peacefully leave office. A little better answer, than the tire-fire response he gave yesterday:

      https://dailycaller.com/2020/09/24/trump-biden-2020-election-concede/

      The WH press secretary today explained that the mail-in ballot system has been a gigantic mess so far this year, and she stated the WH has proof, which the WH will provide later today, regarding how Trump mail-in ballots are not getting to the voters.

      If the mail-in voting really is uber-messed up, then if its a close election, Trump has legit reason to push this to SCOTUS.

    498. Tina says:

      Breaking911
      @Breaking911
      #BREAKING: FBI finds mail-in ballots discarded in Pennsylvania. All of them were cast for President Trump. https://breaking911.com/breaking-fbi-finds-mail-in-ballots-discarded-in-pennsylvania-all-of-them-were-cast-for-president-trump/

    499. Robbie says:

      Here in the US, the Sunbelt outbreak which began in early June is mostly over. It does appear some of the states are plateauing above their early June levels, though. Some place bounce around (AL and SC), but the trend has been consistent.

      Right now, the area of increase is in the Upper Midwest and the Plains states. IL has been on a slow burn for some time now while WI, MN, ND, SD, and MT are seeing increasing week-over-week increases. The numbers for the state like ND and SD are much smaller because of population density, though.

      If the Upper Midwest and the Plains follow the trajectory of the Sunbelt, their outbreaks are probably nearing their peaks and should be mostly over by late October and early November. Were it not for this group of states, we’d probably be several thousand cases lower a day.

      The question is whether there will be a “second wave”. Maybe, but it’s simplistic to say that because there was a second wave of Spanish Flu, the same will happen now. Hygiene and medicine were nonexistent in 1918. Heck, Calvin Coolidge’s son died of sepsis from a blister he got from playing tennis.

      Considering places like New Orleans, which saw an outbreak in March, didn’t see one this Summer as the rest of LA increased, I would guess there won’t be much of “second wave”, but small brush fires.

    500. Tina says:

      Drats now promoting in person voting.

      Axios
      @axios
      · 5h
      Democrats spent the early months of the pandemic urging absentee votes.

      But as threats of USPS delays, Trump litigation and higher ballot rejection rates become clearer, many are pivoting to promote more in-person voting. https://axios.com/democrats-mail-voting-pivot-838522b7-8dac-42b4-a566-1ba93818654d.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=organic&utm_content=1100

    501. Robbie says:

      Beginning this weekend, the state of Indiana is ending almost all of its corona restrictions. Restaurants and businesses can return to 100% occupancy. Groups over 500 people will require county approval, though.

    502. Robbie says:

      Fauci must be having a hissy fit that Nebraska and Indiana have decided to move on from the corona.

      He’ll need to go on CNN and have a kid glove interview with Wolf to get over it.

    503. lisab says:

      it is normal for 5% or more of mail-in votes to be rejected

      mostly because they are not signed

      good job dnc!

    504. MrVito says:

      And it is worse with minorities.

    505. Phil says:

      Quinnipiac is such a joke. Nelson winning in their last Florida Poll by 7. Enough said.

    506. lisab says:

      on d-day, did the guys wear masks?

      ———————————

      Stop Blaming History for Your All-White, All-Male Movie

      Movies like “1917,” “The Irishman,” and “Ford v Ferrari” have all used their historical settings as a shield to deflect diversity critiques. But the past had people of color and women, too.

    507. Robbie says:

      Phil says:
      September 24, 2020 at 3:24 pm
      Quinnipiac is such a joke. Nelson winning in their last Florida Poll by 7. Enough said.

      – They really do have an identifiable pro-Democrat “house effect”.

    508. Tina says:

      Wisearse is always a participant somewhere.

      Techno Fog
      @Techno_Fog
      ·
      49s
      The
      @adamgoldmanNYT
      report on Durham reviewing Clinton Foundation investigation:

      1) Agents/FBI managers seek subpoena of CF
      2) Top DOJ criminal division officials deny request

      Did Andrew Weissmann deny the subpoena? In 2016 he led the Fraud Section.

      @adamgoldmanNYT
      -any idea?

    509. Tina says:

      The AZ – abc15 – Data Guru
      @Garrett_Archer
      ·
      26m
      Did some further number crunching on the newly registered 57,000 voters in Maricopa, including those from #VoterRegistrationDay that have been input in the system. So far, good news for GOP.

      GOP: +24,753 (43%)
      DEM: +14,815 (26%)
      Other: +16,966 (29%)

    510. lisab says:

      how is it legal for bloomberg to spend $100 million in florida?

      it was not too long ago that the democrats were arguing it was illegal for a candidate to spend their own money on a campaign

    511. PresidentPaul! says:

      As soon as you take away restrictions and mask requirements, covid just blows up until you have to go back to it.

      Just a act of futility going on there.

    512. jason says:

      As soon as you take away restrictions and mask requirements, covid just blows up until you have to go back to it.”

      LOL

      Facts not in evidence, that is a bunch of crap.

    513. Gordon Allen says:

      Isn’t it about time for a Fox Poll with Biden +6 and winning all the battleground states? Just asking.

    514. Phil says:

      Gordon, yeah, it’s almost that time.

    515. mnw says:

      I’m OK with non-white actors in some traditionally white roles. They do this all the time in opera. After 5 minutes, you forget all about it.

    516. Greymarch says:

      Returning to the WH this afternoon, a reporter asked Trump if he is meeting with Legoa on Friday. Trump said he would not answer that question. He didnt want to talk about it. Interesting….

      Trump added a couple of campaign events to his Friday FL visit. How can he do several campaign events in FL, speak with Legoa in FL on the same day, then pick her at 5pm the next day to be his SCOTUS nominee?

      I am wondering if Trump cancelled the Friday meeting with Legoa, because he is locked-in to ACB and he felt a few more campaign events in FL would be worthwhile.

    517. PhilS says:

      531:

      Are you always this crazy, or only at sundown?

    518. jason says:

      I am waiting for Skippy to tell us who it will be guaranteed.

      Then we will know it is the other person. Guaranteed.

    519. jason says:

      Are you always this crazy, or only at sundown?”

      Paulbots are permanently nuts.

      They live in an alternate universe.

    520. Robbie says:

      PresidentPaul! says:
      September 24, 2020 at 3:50 pm
      As soon as you take away restrictions and mask requirements, covid just blows up until you have to go back to it.

      Just a act of futility going on there.

      – There’s no evidence and masks and social distancing matter. If they did, the military enforced lockdown in Peru would have worked.

      Corona is going to circulate until it reaches a point where it can circulate freely no more. As they say, the virus is going to virus.

      This would have long since been over had we done nothing. Instead, we destroyed the economy and ruined our way of life.

    521. Pitchaboy says:

      President’s larger point is that you can live in a state of permanent restrictions or let the virus run through to herd immunity through a combo of infections and immunization. Not crazy at all.

    522. Robbie says:

      Pitchaboy says:
      September 24, 2020 at 4:24 pm
      President’s larger point is that you can live in a state of permanent restrictions or let the virus run through to herd immunity through a combo of infections and immunization. Not crazy at all.

      – In fact, this is how it’s done right? A combination of natural infection and immunization.

    523. Florida Guy says:

      I know for a fact Republicans lie to MSM and Dem pollsters because I have friends who tell me so. One pal I know lied to a Midwest pollster about a hot Midwest race even though he lives in the south, and has for 10 years. LOL.

      -FG

    524. BayernFan says:

      Except that immunity gained from infection may only last a few months.

    525. Stonewall DW says:

      HarrisX

      Trump 40
      Biden 45

      national registered voter poll

    526. Tina says:

      I posted this yesterday from Dr. Atlas. Fallaci could not explain this as well as Atlas.

      https://twitter.com/justin_hart/status/1308904131130781697

    527. mnw says:

      547

      That is a good ad. Demented, but intriguing.

    528. Scooterboy says:

      It’s almost October. What’s up with these Registered Voter Polls?

    529. Country Dick Montana says:

      https://triblive.com/news/politics-election/joe-bidens-pennsylvania-hurdle-voters-who-fear-a-california-style-energy-plan/

      Great article here about Biden’s issues in SWPA with regard to frac-ing. Oddly enough it was written by the LA Times.

    530. Tina says:

      Quote Tweet

      Sean Davis
      @seanmdav
      · 18m
      BREAKING: Explosive new FBI texts uncovered by DOJ show that FBI agents were so horrified by the bureau’s actions to take down Trump that they purchased liability insurance to protect themselves after they got sued. https://thefederalist.com/2020/09/24/trump-was-right-explosive-new-fbi-texts-detail-internal-furor-over-handling-of-crossfire-hurricane-investigation/

    531. Tina says:

      Closer and closer to Obiden:

      Techno Fog
      @Techno_Fog
      ·
      18m
      Police cars revolving light NEW Flynn docs

      11/8/16: “So glad they’re closing Razor”

      12/5/16: Disagreement with getting Flynn financials. “We didn’t find anything…”

      12/5/16: “This [investigation] is a nightmare”

      1/5/17: After Obama WH meeting – Razor is going to stay open.

    532. Big E says:

      They cannot show Trump tied or in the lead. If they do they the media outlets will not report their polls. If their polls are not reported then they have no relevance. If they have no relevance then they will go out of business. Ergo all we will get are polls showing Biden ahead. If Trump wins they can then claim he cheated or the Russians cheated.

    533. Stonewall DW says:

      “Great article here about Biden’s issues in SWPA with regard to frac-ing.”

      And the problem for Biden is great because I don’t see a path for him to win without PA.

      For Biden to win the election without PA, he would have to HOLD NM, VA, CO, MN, NV and NH, and then FLIP MI, WI and AZ, and then flip either ME_02 or NE_02.

    534. PhilS says:

      554: Showing Trump leading is bad for business. Adversely affects the revenue stream.

    535. Justin says:

      The HarrisX poll showed a 4 point race on August 12 (44-40) Biden. What has it shown since then? Seems like the gap has closed a bit?

    536. Stonewall DW says:

      556 – along these lines, MorningInsult suddenly stopped updating their daily tracking of WI.

      https://morningconsult.com/form/wisconsin-presidential-election-tracking/

      It just stopped cold on 9/18, and now they have a statement saying they stopped it.

    537. Pitchaboy says:

      BF: Not true. Antibodies will naturally come down after 3 months. But, if you are exposed again to the virus, the body will mount a brisk anamnestic response to neutralize it provided the virus is not a different strain. The same phenomenon is also seen with immunization.

    538. PresidentPaul! says:

      I tent to think masks work but true have no evidence.

    539. Stonewall DW says:

      A doc told me that IF its true that covid19 droplets tend to travel through the air on larger droplets of regular moisture, then its true a cloth mask can help.

      However, if the covid droplets can travel through the air on their own, then a cloth mask is like trying to keep mosquitoes out with a chain-link fence. Only an N95 mask could stop it.

    540. Scooterboy says:

      James O’keefe- “ Project Veritas has been investigating and exposing voter fraud for years.

      Next week we will release the biggest story we’ve ever done.

      Prepare to be shocked.

      #BallotHarvesting

    541. Scooterboy says:

      Yahoo/YouGov poll

      Biden 49% (+5)
      Trump 44%
      Among LV
      D+11.8

      Among whites
      Trump 50% (+14)
      Biden 36%

      Among 65+
      Trump 48% (+8)
      Biden 40%

      Among 45-64
      Trump 43% (+3)
      Biden 40%

      Among Independents
      Trump 40% (+1)
      Biden 39%

      Who do you think will win?
      Trump 42% (+4)
      Biden 38%

    542. Justin says:

      LOL D+12 –

      Ignore the face that Trump is doing well with all the sub groups he needs to do well with.

    543. PhilS says:

      For the last time, YouGov is not a poll, it is a panel discussion.

    544. Stonewall DW says:

      D+12?

      I didn’t get the news that only Connecticut was going to get to vote this year.

    545. Gordon Allen says:

      Trump within 5 in an 11.8% plus D poll? We’re looking at a Trump landslide in the making.

    546. Pitchaboy says:

      D +12. More enthusiasm than 2008. Hmmm

    547. Stonewall DW says:

      Has there been any reporter anywhere who asked the Biden team if he is OK? Given the Biden campaign closed shop at 9:30 this morning.

      You know, like, is he under the weather?

      Under the bed?

      Under a sheet?

      Beuller?

    548. Phil says:

      YouGov showing Trump up 14 with whites. He won whites by +20 in 2016. However, I question these numbers among whites if it’s a D+11 or D+12 poll. Ridiculous Party ID. Tells me they have not captured enough Republicans (who tend to be white of course), probably ones outside metro areas. Those are typically the ones hard for pollsters to reach.

      No question Trump has dropped two or three point among whites (all among white women BTW). I don’t believe it’s as high as the 6 shown in the You Gov poll. That is somewhat compensated for by the fact that Trump has absolutely increased his vote among non white voters. Just needs to get back a couple of points of suburban white women that he had in 2016.

    549. SoHope says:

      trump should do a Beuller Beuller (Biden Biden) parody. With all the kids in the hall raising money and making excuse for how sick Biden is and why he’s in his basement.

    550. Tina says:

      I believe it should be D plus 17.

      There is also no mo,ent to Trump.

      -Jebot

    551. Phil says:

      569

      Right Pitch. That kind of electorate Party ID would indicate way more Dem enthusiasm than even the Hope and Change Year of 2008. It was D+7 that year. Shows what an absolute mess this poll is. Laughable.

    552. Tina says:

      Did they break down Hispanics and AAs?

    553. SoHope says:

      Oh, he’s very popular Ed. The communists, the racists, anarchists, college professors, lawyers, MS-13, … They think he’s a righteous dude.

    554. Phil says:

      I was going by the 2016 exit polls that had it Trump 57-37 among whites.

    555. Waingro says:

      Uh oh!

      “The poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research finds that 44% of Americans disapprove of protests in response to police violence against Black Americans, while 39% approve. In June, 54% approved. The new survey was conducted Sept. 11-14, before Wednesday’s announcement that a lone Louisville police officer would be charged in the Taylor case, but not for her actual death.”

    556. Chicon says:

      New Fox News polls out. Trump down 5 in OH.

    557. Stonewall DW says:

      And it came out today that the cop most seriously injured was in fact black.

    558. Stonewall DW says:

      582 – Sure, and Trump down 10 in Florida and down 15 in North Carolina.

    559. Big E says:

      The problem with the exit polls is that showed Clinton winning. Don’t know if anybody really knows the true demographics of the 2026 electorate. We only know what the flawed numbers of pollsters that missed the mark. Even if they got with in 1 point of the final result was that because their model was correct or did it just work out that way.

    560. Chicon says:

      The Fox News polling remains an embarrassment.

    561. Stonewall DW says:

      Even leftist garbage Morning Insult keeps saying Trump is +5 in OH.

    562. Chicon says:

      Big E, agree. The shy AA voter isn’t going to come out of the booth suddenly bragging about voting for Trump. Another problem – how to get a representative sample when 1/3 of voters vote by mail.

    563. Tina says:

      More stupidity please.

      Breaking911
      @Breaking911
      · 58s
      BREAKING: Democrats to introduce bill limiting U.S. Supreme Court justice terms to just 18 years – Reuters

    564. Stonewall DW says:

      Nevermind Monmouth, Christopher Newport, and Trafalgar, NOW Dave W has his new thread.

    565. Gordon Allen says:

      Harris poll 45-40 among REGISTERED voters with 15% undecided? I sense the media feels it slipping away from them.Who knows what their next trick will be?? Stay tuned; we’ll find out.

    566. Chester says:

      Trump up in Michigan, Pennslvania, Florida and NATIONALLY! The landslide is here. #KAG2020

    567. MrVito says:

      Dan McLaughlin
      @baseballcrank
      I get why some folks would choose a potted plant over Trump. Just don’t tell me it’s not a potted plant, when we all know it is. Because when it’s over, we have four years under the potted plant.

    568. Sheeple,Jr. says:

      #590- DW
      So according to today’s polls, Trump has as much chance in Virginia as he does in Ohio.
      C’Mon Man!!!

    569. Phil says:

      Gordon, if it’s Biden plus 5 among registered voters Trump will absolutely win. Bara’s rustbelt poll showed Trump trailing by between 5 and 6 among registered voters and dead even with likely. Remember that enthusiasm gap.

    570. jaichind says:

      Yougov poll where Biden is ahead 45-40. I think D+11 is unweighted. I reverse engineered DRI weights which I calculate to be 32/26/42. D+6. Still too high in my view. I light of the GOP registration gains in enthusiasm gap it should be something like D+3 or D+2

    571. dblaikie says:

      It is truly a mystery to me why Fox puts out such bogus polls? The hard part is for the next week they will use them as fact.

    572. Phil says:

      You can’t legislate the length of Supreme Court Justice terms by passing a bill – or for any federal judge for that matter, The Constitution clearly states the term is for life.

      It would take a Constitutional Amendment – 2/3 of the both houses to propose and then approval of 38states to ratify.

      I don’t see the purpose of Democrats introducing that bill.

    573. Tina says:

      Garbage poles.

      Averaged and adjusted by fugly at 538.

      Keeps the narrative.

    574. Justin says:

      What is up with the fox polling? Chris Stirewalt will be happy.

    575. dblaikie says:

      Just to give you a little trip down memory land in 2016 Fox had Donnelley up 7 and Braun won by 6 and in Missouri they had Hawley tied and he won by 6. They are terrible and always have been.

    576. Hugh says:

      When a legitimate conservative news outlet gets some real money fox will go the way of cnn. They will lose their loyal conservative audience and either have to tack left or right. But there news people can’t stand us so they’ll try to claim the center and it will fail in our current political climate. The Fox News polls are the worst of all. It’s a complete surrender to the left.

    577. Dan says:

      Fox News polls, Selzer polls, Suffolk University polls, NY Times polls, ABC News polls, NBC News polls are among the best polls in the nation based on historical accuracy of each firm’s polls along with its methodology. Not wishful thinking, actually analysis of results. That said, you should never take one poll as verbatim as there are always outliers and bad individual polls. Consensus is always best. And convergence among poll results between difference pollsters. Among the worst are Survey Monkey polls and McLaughlin polls. Change Research and Trafalgar are not very good either.
      https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

    578. Hugh says:

      Yes Dan. Per senator Donnelly

    579. Chester says:

      Dan Troll
      Trafalgar was the most accurate poll in 2016 idiot. #MAGA2020 #KAG2020

    580. DW says:

      Dan, you are an absolute imbecile. Trafalgar nailed 2016, and got FL right in 2018.

    581. DW says:

      538 can say 1+1=5, but we all know it’s not true

    582. Tina says:

      Even Ralston is discounting the Faux Nv pole.

    583. JeffP says:

      Yes troll Dan…I concur with DW…go away.

      I keep think we might see a Red Wave…

      like what happened in the last UK election to the Labor Party.

    584. RB says:

      Hey Dan—-How are Senator’s Donnelly, McKaskill, and Nelson voting on the RBG’s SCOTUS replacement…Fox all had them winning

    585. Gordon Allen says:

      Jeez. I didn’t know when I said Fox was overdue with a rescue poll that one was coming! Ohio plus 5 for Biden!!! That’s so ridiculous as to be a Bob Hope joke.Fox has become MSNBC and is headed toward a cliff. I’ve totally departed from Fox.For good.

    586. Chester says:

      Dan Troll is weeping his libtard tears as the race slips away from his senile candidate.

    587. Tina says:

      Peoples_Pundit
      @Peoples_Pundit
      ·
      3m
      Even Democrats at laughing at the new round from
      @FoxNewsPoll
      . Sure, they’ll fundraise off of them, which is probably the point.

      But it seems to everyone Fox wanted debate money more than any of us expected.

      Damn right, I said it.

    588. JeffP says:

      Tina…I was thinking about NV and Ralston the other day. Is he worried about the Hispanic vote in NV? I wonder…it would be great to see.

    589. Phil says:

      Baras on twitter just now –

      “even Democrats are laughing at the new round of Fox polls”

    590. JeffP says:

      Tina…I was thinking about NV and Ralston the other day. Is he worried about the Hispanic vote in NV? I wonder…I could get into watching him sweat and fret over that.

    591. Phil says:

      Ralston on the Nevada Fox poll just out.

      “I think it’s highly unlikely”

      Damn, you think?

    592. JeffP says:

      Some of those faux hosts must be like we suck at polling…I don’t want to repeat this crap!

      How about…Trump has all but locked up Ohio Bret.

    593. Scooterboy says:

      Don’t worry about Ohio. It’s a done deal. Have you seen anyone from the Biden team in Ohio lately? Yeah I know, we hardly ever see anyone from the Biden team anywhere, but you get my drift.

    594. Phil says:

      Baris just polled the rust belt and said Ohio is absolutely not close. He was definitive.

    595. Chester says:

      Trump speaking on healthcare. Great speech. LANDSLIDE! Here is the best healthcare plan of all……get a job ….sign up for the group plan ( they must cover preexisting)……stay employed and pay your OWN damn premiums and quit trying to get someone else to pay for it, and if you are physically or mentally handicapped, then we provide Medicaid for you, but if you are able bodied and refuse to work, then you DESERVE what you get ! #KAG2020

    596. Scooterboy says:

      Fox and Quinnipiac are the lowest of the garbage polls. I pay no attention to either one of them.

    597. Robbie says:

      Phil says:
      September 24, 2020 at 7:11 pm
      Baris just polled the rust belt and said Ohio is absolutely not close. He was definitive.

      – What is Baris’ first name?

    598. Scooterboy says:

      Remember, Biden is doing worse with Hispanics than Clinton did and Clinton only won Nevada by 3. But Fox would have you believe that Biden leads Nevada by 9.
      That’s the idiocy of Fox News Polls. Doesn’t even pass the common sense test.

    599. dblaikie says:

      Even Bret Baier looked embarrassed and sheepish when he revealed the new polls — especially the Nevada poll. Oh well, I wouldn’t be surprised if Dave begins a new thread with these polls. Which is his right to do (I am grateful for this site).

    600. Phil says:

      Richard Baris

      Inside the Numbers podcast every morning at 10 central. Guy hit the nail on the head in 2012 and 2016. Great stuff for all political junkies.

    601. MrVito says:

      Catherine Herridge
      @CBS_Herridge
      ·
      23m
      #Durham BREAKING: The primary sub-source for the Steele dossier was deemed a possible “national security threat” + the subject of 2009 FBI counter-intel probe. According to new records, those facts were known to Crossfire Hurricane team in December 2016.

    602. Sheeple,Jr. says:

      Both Quinnipiac and FOX show the Democrat crossover in their respective Ohio Polls at 2%.In 2016, 12% of Democrats voted for Trump in the Buckeye State.Democrats in the mining abd steel towns in Eastern Ohio went GOP that year.
      Are these pollsters telling us that most of these 2016 crossover voters have returned to the Dem. fold? If so, why?

    603. PhilS says:

      628:

      These pollsters are manipulating numbers. They are not very smart, so the internals go haywire.

    604. Scooterboy says:

      Supposedly the Fox Ohio poll is D + 8

    605. Tina says:

      Faux Ohio pole is Drat plus 8, per Cotto/gottfred.

    606. Scooterboy says:

      The last two election cycles

      2016: R + 1
      2018: R + 5

      Fox News Poll is full of chit.

    607. MrVito says:

      Fox leads with “tight in Ohio” but “Biden leads” in the other two.

      That are embarrassed by their own poll.

    608. MrVito says:

      This is what Baris meant by no solace in public polling.

      Every decent one will be followed by one or two crap polls to distort the average.

    609. Tina says:

      10
      9

      Larry Schweikart
      @LarrySchweikart
      ·
      9m
      From “Freeper” Ravi
      FL registrations
      9/01/16:
      Ds: 4,733,359
      Rs: 4,459,087
      Other: 3,286,838

      9/01/20:
      Ds: 5,203,795
      Rs: 5,020,199
      Other: 3,841,633

      CHANGE FROM 9/1/16 TO 9/1/20:
      DEMS: +470,436
      REPS: +561,112

      UPDATE: Ravi’s daily update now has the D margin at only 166,000.

    610. Scooterboy says:

      Robert Barnes- “ Fox polls will be the worst this cycle.”

      Baris- “ They will, and none of us should be surprised after their horrible 2018 performance.

      Indiana: Donnelly +7 (Result: Braun +5.9)
      Missouri: Tie (45) (Result: Hawley +6.0)

      Fox Poll surveyed both these races multiple times in 2018 and never came close.

    611. Scooterboy says:

      Ouch !!!!

      Baris- “ There comes a point, which we have been at with the @FOXNewsPoll for several years now, when you just have to completely devalue their contribution to the conversation.

      They’re that bad, and they know it. I could debate both of them at the same time, and crush them.

    612. Tina says:

      Yikes

      Catherine Herridge
      @CBS_Herridge
      · 47m
      #Durham BREAKING: The primary sub-source for the Steele dossier was deemed a possible “national security threat” + the subject of 2009 FBI counter-intel probe. According to new records, those facts were known to Crossfire Hurricane team in December 2016.

    613. Cash Cow TM says:

      “I’m OK with non-white actors in some traditionally white roles. They do this all the time in opera. ”

      You’d have to beat this cows ass with a stick
      AND use a cattle prod to get this cow to an opera.

    614. Scooterboy says:

      Baris- “ If the vote was held today, @foxnewspoll would be a 10-pt point miss. In the raw we collected, @realDonaldTrump was way up in Ohio.

      Trying weighting vars for #InsideTheNumbers tomorrow, there’s no realistic way we can get to a lead for @JoeBiden.

      47/42 is as close as it gets.

    615. Cash Cow TM says:

      Just saw Trump on TV news being questioned about will he “do a peaceful transfer of power…”

      Trump’s incoherent, ADHD, non-sentence responses were horrible…kept mumbling about “the ballots, the ballots” … obviously trying to articulate UNSUCCESSFULLY about mailing out mail-in ballots to all RVs in state whether they ask for them or not.

      Trump is Trump’s biggest asset, and
      Trump is Trump’s biggest obstacle.
      Tr

    616. Tina says:

      And nobody cares.

      The end.

    617. Robbie says:

      Phil says:
      September 24, 2020 at 7:22 pm
      Richard Baris

      Inside the Numbers podcast every morning at 10 central. Guy hit the nail on the head in 2012 and 2016. Great stuff for all political junkies.

      – Thanks. I’ll check it out.

    618. MrVito says:

      Plotters better hope there is an exception for predicting conditions on their liability insurance.

    619. MrVito says:

      Preexisting

    620. Phil says:

      Guess he needs to attend the Joe Biden school of clarity in communication.

    621. Pitchaboy says:

      Fox News Polls are directly aimed at depressing their target audience. They are engineered by the young Murdoch’ clan

    622. Phil says:

      Robbie, his daily episodes are on Youtube if you want to look back and get a sampling.

    623. Phil says:

      I think you are right, Pitch… both about their purpose and who is directing it.

      Outside of their evening lineup I don’t watch Fox anymore.

    624. MrVito says:

      Today, Baris was literally showing everyone how to construct a poll by making a Florida poll his viewers are paying for.

    625. Tina says:

      Phil, faux is horrible.

      Fox and friends is good.

      The rest is a horror show.

      Tucker is fine.

      Hannity is ok. He likes to interrupt.

    626. MrVito says:

      Kimberley Strassel
      @KimStrassel
      ·
      58m
      5) The same FBI said to be concerned about Russian interference in election, was using information from a suspected Russian spy to probe a presidential campaign. The same FBI claiming Carter Page a Russian agent, was making that case based on info from a suspected Russia agent.

    627. MrVito says:

      Kimberley Strassel
      @KimStrassel
      ·
      1h
      6) Most importantly: It never told the FISA court about this CI investigation. It withheld that information and continued re-upping its applications to surveil Page and the campaign. It vouched for information supplied by a suspected Russian agent.

    628. MrVito says:

      Kimberley Strassel
      @KimStrassel
      ·
      55m
      8) And people wonder why #Durham is looking into all this?
      Also, extra-credit question: Wasn’t it Mueller’s job to find sources of Russian disinformation? How do you miss the guy potentially feeding it directly to the FBI?

    629. MichiganGuy says:

      FBI Director Wray Downplays Election Fraud as Discarded Mail-in Votes Cast by Military Marked For Trump Found in Pennsylvania garbage.
      .
      https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/09/fbi-director-wray-downplays-election-fraud-discarded-mail-votes-cast-military-marked-trump-found-pennsylvania/
      .
      As soon as Trump wins reelection Wray needs to be fired.

    630. Pitchaboy says:

      Fox is biting the hand that feeds them. I tuned them out a year ago.

    631. MichiganGuy says:

      FBI investigates ballots for Trump found in Pennsylvania garbage
      .

      https://nypost.com/2020/09/24/fbi-investigates-ballots-for-trump-found-in-pennsylvania-garbage/
      .
      Yeah, we can trust the mail-in ballot system.

    632. Bitterlaw says:

      535 mnw – In the musical Hamilton, George Washington is black and it is a great show. The only white character is King George. The point of the show is that the Founding Fathers were hip and revolutionary so today they might speak in rap. Brilliant. Here is a cabinet meeting about the Feds assuming state debt.

      https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dSYW61XQZeo

    633. Pitchaboy says:

      Hard for any FBI director to go after entrenched FBI. They probably have a dossier on their director.

    634. Tina says:

      Wray is a disaster.

      Antifa/BLM is not organized.

      Yet, they have flags, medics, banners, uhaul trucks with shields, umbrellas, etc.

      He may be even worse than Comedy.

    635. Country Dick Montana says:

      Looks like the PAC-12 has decided to play football. Not that it matters at all.

    636. Cash Cow TM says:

      After the election, I think we should be able to burn at the stake any and all pollsters whose polls were off by 5 points or more from actual results.

    637. Pitchaboy says:

      Gateway Pundit is a hysterical clown. Half of his posts are fake news. The sky is always falling on conservative heads in his domain.

    638. Tina says:

      Gang, the travel schedules of Trump,and China Biden.

      https://twitter.com/FuctupMike/status/1309297242520551425

    639. PhilS says:

      667: Did your meds start working again?

    640. MichiganGuy says:

      “Hard for any FBI director to go after entrenched FBI. They probably have a dossier on their director.”
      .
      True, but not impossible if you are a strong leader. AG Barr could of used the same excuse with the Justice Department. But, he didn’t. He came in and took control.

    641. MichiganGuy says:

      #670 yep, that pretty much sums it up. Biden has already called Trump and conceded the race.

    642. MrVito says:

      People handing out gear, destroying things, and assaulting journalists again in Louisville tonight.

    643. JeffP says:

      670 Tina love the map.

      668 Gateway is better than most blogs or news sites..but I get the over reaction thing. I double and triple source any news story anymore and wait a day or two.

      You know…I think something big is going to happen with the Durham investigation eventually. Based on info coming today…it could drop before the election. COMEY is testifying next week too!

      Trump reading from Federalist story…

    644. MrVito says:

      SV News Police cars revolving light
      @SVNewsAlerts
      · 27m
      BREAKING: Rioters have smashed windows to the #Louisville city library and have thrown a flare inside.

    645. JeffP says:

      Debate question…what issue will Trump bring up first in the debates?

      1. Meeting on January 5th in Obama office framing Mike Flynn with Joe’s suggestion of Logan Act.

      2. Hunters sweet deals with Russian Mayor and China.

      3. Staying in the basement.

      4. Being a sell out to CHI-NAH.

    646. JeffP says:

      I think Trump will really get under Biden’s skin if he mentions his son or Russia Hoax involvement. He might just lose it.

    647. Robbie says:

      Phil says:
      September 24, 2020 at 8:12 pm
      Robbie, his daily episodes are on Youtube if you want to look back and get a sampling.

      – I will. Thanks for the heads up.

    648. mnw says:

      661 BL

      Thx. I’m flattered you posted that after my earlier comment.

      I’m trying to find something for Cow, who said he’d have to be worked over with a cattle prod (or something) to watch opera.

      My self-assignment is to find for Cow the intersection of the most beautiful soprano, & the most beautiful aria, of all time. The first part is pretty easy, at least for me. Had she not been the most famous opera singer of her era, with the best voice this side of heaven, she could’ve been a Playboy Playmate of the Year, imo.

      Guess who I am?

      The second part, the most beautiful aria, is more challenging, because there are a lot of contenders. Plus, the singer I have in mind didn’t record all the arias I’m considering for Cow.

      In my researches, I’ve been stunned to discover that EVERY youtube I looked at had a gd Biden ad attached to it, btw. Gives me the willies.

      Stay tuned, Cow!

    649. PhilS says:

      “People handing out gear, destroying things, and assaulting journalists again in Louisville tonight.”

      One out of three is good average in baseball.

    650. mnw says:

      Vito

      Too bad no sound track.

      That famous old Bugs Bunny cartoon that incorporates Figaro’s song from The Barber of Seville is pretty funny.

    651. MichiganGuy says:

      Best political ad I have seen in a long time.
      .
      https://twitter.com/CalebJHull/status/1309230616404275201?s=07
      .
      I know Phil will like this.

    652. Bitterlaw says:

      I think Trump should not mention Hunter Biden. People who care about him are already voting for Trump. I am sure that Biden’s staff are preparing him for a response like “Mr. President, I have buried 2 of my children. Are you so low and so desperate because you are losing the election that you need to attack my remaining son?”

    653. MrVito says:

      I aims to please

      What’s Opera, Doc?

      https://vimeo.com/456094355

    654. Phil says:

      OMG. I love it! Awesome!

    655. mnw says:

      I sure hope LIV’s are paying attention to all this drizzly bs in Louisville & elsewhere.

      They set a LIBRARY on fire tonight– nice touch! Book burning has SUCH a storied history.

    656. MrVito says:

      New Thread

    657. mnw says:

      Vito

      Thx. Very cute. Never saw that one. Lohengrin; some Valkyries.