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    Trump/Graham Collapse in SC, Marshall Trails Bollier in KS, Biden Leads Trump in MI

    The hits just keep on coming for Republicans as we have a new poll from Quinnipiac University for the state of South Carolina that shows Donald Trump now only a single percentage ahead of Joe Biden while Lindsey Graham is tied with Jaime Harrison in the US Senate race.

    PRESIDENT – SOUTH CAROLINA (Quinnipiac)
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 48%
    Joe Biden (D) 47%

    US SENATE – SOUTH CAROLINA (Quinnipiac)
    Jaime Harrison (D) 48%
    Lindsey Graham (R-inc) 48%

    This poll was done September 23-27 among 1123 likely voters. Continuing over to Kansas where a new internal poll from GBAO Research has Democrat Barbara Bollier ahead of Republican Roger Marshall.

    US SENATE – KANSAS (GBAO Research)
    Barbara Bollier (D) 45%
    Roger Marshall (R) 43%

    This poll was done September 24-27 among 600 likely voters. To counteract this, the same article above has an older internal poll from the Marshall campaign done by coEfficient that could only get Marshall to a 4% lead in Kansas.

    US SENATE – KANSAS (coEfficient)
    Roger Marshall (R) 43%
    Barbara Bollier (D) 39%

    This poll was done September 15-16 among 794 likely voters. But Republicans can always rely on Trafalgar Group to give them good numbers…aaaaaaand maybe not. The latest poll from them for Michigan now has Trump trailing Biden after recently showing him in the lead.

    PRESIDENT – MICHIGAN (Trafalgar)
    Joe Biden (D) 49%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 47%

    This poll was done September 26-28 among 1042 likely voters. Well how about Rasmussen Reports?

    PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (Rasmussen)
    Joe Biden (D) 51%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 43%

    Nope. This poll was done September 23-29 among 3000 likely voters. Just think, all the above were from before last night’s debate….

    Posted by Dave at 4:16 pm
    Filed under: General | Comments (678)

    678 Responses to “Trump/Graham Collapse in SC, Marshall Trails Bollier in KS, Biden Leads Trump in MI”

    1. NYCmike says:

      F R I S T ! ! !

    2. NYCmike says:

      “Just think, all the above were from before last night’s debate….”

      -Wissing,

      You will vote for the other guy that was on stage with Trump?

    3. Tina says:

      es Pundit Daily
      @PPDNews
      ·
      5m
      Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) finds contract signings ? 8.8% to 132.8 in August, an all-time high.

      Year-over-year is now ? 24.2%, solidifying another indicator in a V-Shape Recovery, not a “K” Shape.
      https://ppdnews.us/gEfi7m2

    4. MrVito says:

      “If South Carolina is too close to call, it’s gonna be a bad night for the President.”

    5. Waingro says:

      “MrVito says:
      September 30, 2020 at 4:29 pm
      “If South Carolina is too close to call, it’s gonna be a bad night for the President.”

      That was Tim Russert in ’04, right?

    6. jason says:

      “Herman Cain aside, he has no way of knowing that.” Mr. Cain did not get Covid from the rally, he got it somewhere else.

      Yeah, I noticed Corey was spreading this MSM lie yesterday….

    7. Tina says:

      Did you know biden is a centrist, just like Hillary?

      – Clinton groupie

    8. jason says:

      Cain didn’t wear a mask and traveled frequently before and after the rally.

      There is no evidence he contracted it at the rally and in fact the people surrounding him at the rally did not get COVID.

      But for the MSM and the useful idiots, the narrative fits.

    9. MikeKS says:

      Bollier will win Kansas – the Senate is gone and has been gone for a while.

    10. Dump Trump says:

      The KS polls are both internal polls. One is D and one is R. Kansas looking close. If KS is close that means the Senate has already flipped easily. Thank you Mr. Trump for your gift last night.

    11. jason says:

      Bollier will win Kansas”

      LOL

      You better rush over to Predicit and buy her shares quickly, since Marshall is a 70% favorite.

    12. Dump Trump says:

      New York Post is very right wing.

    13. Waingro says:

      Is “MikeKS” a new troll?

    14. jason says:

      Of course I will be happy to concede Bollier could win being that much of an underdog, if the trolls will concede Trump could win all the states where he is a 2-1 underdog.

    15. Country Dick Montana says:

      DT I will ask a question that I asked of someone else on the previous thread. Perhaps you can provide an answer as that person did not:

      Besides seeing conservatives suffer on election night, what do you get out of a Biden win?, What policies would you like to see implemented by the Biden/Harris Administration and the Dem Senate and House?

      There will be consequences to this election one way or the other. “My team wins” is a pretty shallow reason for wanting an election result.

    16. jason says:

      If its the same MikeKS its an old troll.

    17. jason says:

      New York Post is very right wing.”

      Did you actually read the analysis and grades before saying something stupid?

      No need to answer, rhetorical.

    18. jason says:

      Who cares what policies trolls want?

      I know how trolls think, I am one myself at other sites.

      I love nothing better when moonbats ask my opinion.

      Plus Dump Trump is a real moron, so there is that too.

    19. NYCmike says:

      “I know how trolls think, I am one myself at other sites.”

      -Silly me, I thought A-Holes were one-trick llamas!

    20. NYCmike says:

      “Bollier will win Kansas – the Senate is gone and has been gone for a while.”

      -Do you know where Tesla will be on November 3rd?

      Now that would be some useful information!

    21. Country Dick Montana says:

      Jason, This is where we disagree. If he wants something specifically policywise, I want to hear it and debate it. If all he is here for is to stir up sheot, then I just scroll by.

      Oddly I have never had a any of out progressive breteren really articulate what it is they want from their side winning. And yes that includes the mealy mouthed, platitude spouting “reasonable” DEM BJ.

    22. dblaikie says:

      For me Quinnipiac polls are very accurate. What I do is at 10 points to the GOP candidate. So Graham and Trump are 10 or 11 points up.

    23. Florida Guy says:

      Quinnipiac has a special place in Polling Hell to burn. 2018 Florida was the worst polling ever.

      -FG

    24. marc says:

      David is orgasmic over those South Carolina and Kansas polls, he hates Trump so much that he actually believe the Democrats have a chance of winning in those places. The never Trump illness is really a pathology

    25. NYCmike says:

      Hillary got close to Obama’s totals in South Carolina, and still lost by over 10%.

      If Biden can improve on that, I would be impressed.

      Win the state? Come on, man!

    26. NYCmike says:

      #26 – Bitterlaw, what do you have to say about that?

    27. jason says:

      David is orgasmic over those South Carolina and Kansas polls, he hates Trump so much that he actually believe the Democrats have a chance of winning in those places. The never Trump illness is really a pathology”

      Feel free to go somewhere else anytime…..

    28. Tina says:

      ning ? Retweeted

      Political Polls
      @PpollingNumbers
      ·
      35s
      #KSSen Poll:

      Marshall (R) 50% (+7)
      Bollier (D) 43%

      @Civiqs

      (LV,9/26-9/29)

    29. jason says:

      Maybe Dave is tired of capitalism and wants to try socialism.

      He wouldn’t be the only one, there are tens of millions that have the same idea.

      But as said many times before, it is his blog and he can post any poll and any comment he wants.

      If he wants, he can post a +10 Trump poll and say Trump is on the verge of losing.

      If you want to whine about a site, whine about the Drudge Report, now a full moonbat site.

      No, I don’t go there anymore, but I still miss the old days.

    30. jason says:

      Marshall (R) 50% (+7)
      Bollier (D) 43%”

      Another reason why Bollier is about a 3-1 underdog.

    31. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      In a debate, it is likely that Biden will often get lost and say something strange by about his 3rd or 4th sentence. This would raise questions regarding his mental acuity. However, this process did not take place last night because Trump regularly interrupted Biden after his 2nd sentence.

      If Trump had not continually interrupted him, it is likely Biden would have made several memorable gaffes, that the Trump campaign could have used. Biden owes Trump a thank you card.

    32. PresidentPaul! says:

      I read they are doing mic cutting for next debate.

      If this is the case, Trump needs to learn canned lined for this 2 minute periods of un-interruption. Biden always had canned insults like calling Trump a racist for these periods that he knew Trump would not be able to resist talking and probably rightly so.

      Point is it’s all going to be much worse if the debate change allows Biden to keep doing this and Trump remains unprepared.

    33. Country Dick Montana says:

      With regard to TDS and the rise of socialism/high tax/nanny government, there are at least two perspectives. One are the people who really think that they will make out under it, with them getting the spoils from the rich (which will actually be the middle class as the rich now are DEM donors,) student loan forgiveness, etc

      The other side is are the ones who just think that no matter what happens, they won’t be affected by the results. These are your educated suburban voters. They would do well to remember the old saying about” they came for such and such, but I didn’t care because I wasn’t such and such.

    34. PresidentPaul! says:

      The entire debate strategy right now is just say the most outlandish things and the most outrageous insults in the 2-4 min uninterrupted monologue part.

      We need Triump the Insult Comic Dog for these monologues not Trump on our side to win these debates.

    35. MrVito says:

      Amazing that the DKos poll is in the same article as the other two, but Dave left it out.

    36. Robbie says:

      Reid Wilson
      @PoliticsReid
      Biden’s campaign has booked $248m in airtime over the next 5 weeks. Trump’s campaign: Just $130m. My look inside Biden’s advantage in the coming air wars

      – There is a point at which money spent no longer has any effect. Still, I find it surprising, to say the least, Biden will outspend Trump in the last month or so by almost 2-1.

    37. jason says:

      Wow, after destroying the state’s economy Gov Wolf admits to “political theater” on an open mike.

      “Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf and Representative Wendy Ullman (D-Bad People) were caught on a hot mic giggling about the “political theater” they were about to partake in at a press conference. Wolf is heard telling Ullman he’s going to take off his mask to speak while Ullman responds that she’s going to keep hers on for the cameras to make sure people see her in it. “I’m waiting so we can do a little political theater,” she says, laughing. “So it’s on camera!”

    38. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      I don’t have a problem with Dave posting various polls. It has resulted in some interesting discussions of polling methodology,bias, and how a poll did in previous elections. As stated on the previous thread, Quinnipiac polling had shown Hillary Clinton with a 10% (51% to 41%) lead of Trump 75 days before the 2016 election

    39. janz says:

      SDC – Trump’s constant interruption aided and abetted Biden has been a frequent observation made post debate.

      I keep seeing these dismal polls and instinctively feel they are off. Anecdotally, what I hear, and what my eyes see all the time, regarding the Trump enthusiasm depicted in “peace protests” boat, car, parades, signage/banners/flags, Trump, supporters seem to be everywhere. In contrast, Biden seems conspicuously minor in reaping any affection from the people.

    40. Phil says:

      It’s Quinnipiac in SC.

      Just like it was Quinnipiac in Georgia yesterday.

      Quinnipiac. A solid polling firm. Just ask Senator Nelson of Florida. Oh wait. He’s not the senator anymore. That’s funny. I thought he was going to win by 7.

    41. jason says:

      There is a point at which money spent no longer has any effect. Still, I find it surprising, to say the least, Biden will outspend Trump in the last month or so by almost 2-1.”

      I don’t. Biden hardly goes anywhere so he needs airtime.

      Trump does many more rallies and that generates news coverage everywhere he goes.

      He will be on local TV a lot more than Biden in swing states.

      Of course the national news will be negative, bu the local news won’t have much choice but to report on the rallies. Yes, they will interview Biden supporters yelling outside the venue, but Trump will still get a message across.

    42. janz says:

      BTW, I think TV ads are ineffective, and money not well spent in slamming the airwaves, especially with uninspiring Biden ads

    43. PresidentPaul! says:

      Trump doesn’t get that the 2 min uninteruppted is your time to be Triumph the insult dog.

      For instance Joe said the N-word 13 times during testinomy. Joe did the crime bill. etc etc.

      The time to talk about Joe graduating last in his class was during the uninterrupted time.

      All his attacks were done during Joe’s uninteruppted time so anytime he said an attack of substance, Chris Wallace had to talk over him so that no one could hear Trump anyways.

      It’s like he doesn’t understand the structure of the “debate” even though he debating Hillary in the past. Biden was at least smart enough to listen to his handlers and have notes (and probably was given the topics a head of time)

    44. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      35. “I read they are doing mic cutting for next debate.”

      The Biden campaign should object. The more Trump talks, the less Biden has to. Giving Biden two full minutes to answer questions may be disasterous for his campaign.

    45. PresidentPaul! says:

      Biden called Trump a liar, a racist, and a clown.

      Every uninterruppted segment he unloaded on Trump, and then Trump would get all red, and try to talk only to be silenced by Wallace.

      I think he thought Biden was going to be nice to him all night.

    46. PresidentPaul! says:

      Truimph the insult dog to the American Idol auditions aka how the the presidential debates were meant to be played.

    47. jason says:

      With regard to TDS and the rise of socialism/high tax/nanny government, there are at least two perspectives. One are the people who really think that they will make out under it, with them getting the spoils from the rich (which will actually be the middle class as the rich now are DEM donors,) student loan forgiveness, etc

      The other side is are the ones who just think that no matter what happens, they won’t be affected by the results. These are your educated suburban voters. They would do well to remember the old saying about” they came for such and such, but I didn’t care because I wasn’t such and such.”

      Good theory, but I think the suburban voters who go for Biden want the nanny state too. When you say they are educated, yes, but educated by decades of left wing dogma permeating academia. They want “free” child care, “free” prescription drugs, “free paid leave”, etc. The now believe they can have everything and someone else will pay for it.

      I don’t separate these two groups at all. The lure of a nanny government who will take care of their needs is now very powerful.

      That is why again, this is not about Trump or Biden. If Biden wins, it is because more people believe in this way of thinking than not.

      It’s not the society I envisioned for my kids. But who knows, maybe they will adapt to a new system. I am glad I don’t really have to.

    48. Gordon Allen says:

      Weekly Standard was once solid reading,until Billy went postal. Dave W is Billy replicated. Sorry

    49. Phil says:

      “Trump, Graham Collapse in SC”

      Nice headline, Dave.

      A headline based on Quinnipiac. Seriously?

    50. phoenixrisen says:

      Bunu, the trolls, and Wissing are awfully chirpy today. Hard time buying Ras’ national polling. If that was the case Biden would be running away with the typically reliable Rust Belt states which he is not as those are real tight. Give the debate and awesome economic news time to settle in. Once the Sunday outlier sample of Ras rolls off, Trump will be back hovering around 50%

    51. PresidentPaul! says:

      Weekly Standard push the failed Iraq Hoax, and now neocon George Soros, Lincoln Project, and the Koch Brothers are all trying ton destroy Trump out of revenge.

    52. jason says:

      Biden has billboards on the highway.

      I am Fred Smith.

      Republican.

      Pro-life

      Voting for Biden”

      All I can think is what a freaking moron, Biden’s party is for for partial birth abortions and killing viable fetuses outside the womb.

      I imagine most people who aren’t Dems have to think the same.

      Why would you want to emulate a moron like that.

    53. PresidentPaul! says:

      #53
      Not my fault that Trump continues to smiles and act like Biden is his friend even though he did one segment where he called him a liar to his face, the next segment where he called him a racist to his face, and the next segment where he called him a clown to his face.

      Trump thought he was going there to get praised it seems even though none of those people are his friends.

      It was a weak performance.

    54. Gordon Allen says:

      These ” educated” suburban types are brain dead. I know many, although most where I live NOW are not.Do they outnumber politically working types is the question.

    55. jason says:

      “Bunu, the trolls, and Wissing are awfully chirpy today”

      Look, if I read on conservative media that Biden was “horrendous”, I would be chirpy too.

      Fair is fair.

    56. PresidentPaul! says:

      Just like the Weekly Standard was never conservatives friend.

      Kristol wants your children dying for his dreams in Iraq and Iran, and the moment the party isn’t doing what he wants, he wants to push the country into a Communism in revenge.

    57. jason says:

      These ” educated” suburban types are brain dead.”

      Nah, I wish they were.

      They have been educated to want a different system.

      That is a lot worse.

      The vast majority of Biden voters are not being fooled. I doubt there is ANY Biden voter than doesn’t know Kamala Harris is a Marxist and would be likely be President if Biden won.

      The fact is they don’t care, it is not that they are stupid.

    58. Jack Michael Joseph says:

      #15 MikeKS isn’t a troll, he’s just a consistent bed-wetter. Back in 2004, the one year Polaris was actually very good, he was constantly talking MikeKS off the ledge. Unfortunately, Polaris crashed and burned in 2008 with his poll unskewing.

    59. Country Dick Montana says:

      If socialism was like that in Scandinavia, which is actually a highly capitalistic society with a safety net of government services, I could “almost” live with that. But for that to work one needs

      1. A heterogenous society with a long history of shared values and tradition
      2. A trust in government

      We have neither here and given that the the political parties thrive on and in fact need division to stay in power, we will never have it. Our socialism will eventually be the old British version, fascism or an elite oligarchy.

      Hayek’s “Road to Serfdom” spells it out.

    60. Tina says:

      YOUGOV FINANCIAL SITUATION POLL WEIGHED:
      Better off now – 48.82
      Better off 4 years ago – 35.84
      Compare that to 2016 exit polls from 2016 and this is a sign of a massive silent trump vote this year.

    61. Tina says:

      Rust belt poll

      Look at extremely likely

      https://t.co/5eScXJbCmh?amp=1

    62. Country Dick Montana says:

      62 – I meant a homogeneous society above. They have to all be Scandinavian. There are now issues with immigrants coming it, who do not share the values of hard work (and they do work hard, I have been there) but like getting the largess of government.

    63. Gordon Allen says:

      Jason. We disagree. If you asked them the most elementary questions about our system of government ( how many Justices on the Supreme Court..),or the precepts of Socialism,etc I GUARANTEE most are objectively clueless.Educational degrees today are ( generally) valueless with respect to the real world.
      If you ask who was on our side in WW2 they likely will say Germany as against Russia. Their world began in 1995.
      Sorry, with respect,I could not disagree more

    64. jason says:

      Jason. We disagree. If you asked them the most elementary questions about our system of government ( how many Justices on the Supreme Court..),or the precepts of Socialism,etc I GUARANTEE most are objectively clueless.Educational degrees today are ( generally) valueless with respect to the real world.
      If you ask who was on our side in WW2 they likely will say Germany as against Russia. Their world began in 1995.
      Sorry, with respect,I could not disagree more”

      Oh puhhhleeze… you think educated professional suburban women in Philly don’t know how many justices there are on SCOTUS or who was an ally in WWII? Really? In fact even stay at home educated suburban women would answer correctly.

      That is absurd.

      Frankly, any exurban women I would know could answer those questions correctly too.

      You are barking up the wrong tree if you think people don’t know what they are voting for.

      They do, which is actually scarier.

    65. Country Dick Montana says:

      Jason, I believe that if they are voting for socialism they think that they are voting for the Scandinavian variety (Denmark, Sweden and Norway are some of the happiest people in the world. also the whitest.) If they thought they were voting for the British version or worse they would probably think twice about that.

      But they are not going to get the Scandinavian type.

    66. jason says:

      If socialism was like that in Scandinavia, which is actually a highly capitalistic society”

      I know that theory is rampant in the media, but actually it is not true.

      Scandinavia is NOT highly capitalistic, and the only way they can pay for all services is to limit what you can make (because it is mostly taxed).

      So that is the trade off. You trade merit for relative comfort.

      Portraying Scandinavia, especially Sweden, as some kind of “light socialism” is a popular fallacy.

      There is no such animal. No free lunch.

    67. Country Dick Montana says:

      I didn’t say that there was a free lunch in those countries. They work hard and are highly compensated. They pay a high level of taxes for those services. It works because they trust their government and don’t mind the tradeoffs. And it really works because of shared values and culture.

    68. Country Dick Montana says:

      And that is the difference.A homogeneous culture, where 90% of the population is Scandinavian allows it to work for those countries.

      A heterogeneous society with competing cultures as we have here won’t work for us.

      I do prefer it here.

    69. Gordon Allen says:

      Jason I’m saying that exactly. How many ” suburban women” have you interviewed on these subjects. My guess is few if any. Let’s just say the following: We disagree completely and
      leave it at that.

    70. Hugh says:

      Some good news on NC changes to election change that went to court. Sound like NC took the court order too far and the witness requirement will survive.

    71. MikeKS says:

      Not an old troll, been here since 2004. I offer a lot of thoughts and comments. I am a strong conservative and was here for the 04 Bush/Kerry race if that gives you any idea how long I’ve been here.

      I live in KS and right now, Bollier is ahead. Her advantage in the suburbs is rather large. Perhaps it can be made up but after last night, quite worried.

    72. Bitterlaw says:

      It must be very interesting when Gordon starts interviewing women. How exactly does that conversation start?

    73. NYCmike says:

      MikeKS,

      Good and hard for all of us if that is the case!

      I’ll wait until November 4th to lay down and give up.

      Thank you very much.

    74. NYCmike says:

      #75 – How you doing?

      Oops, that would be Wes.

    75. MrVito says:

      “I live in KS and right now, Bollier is ahead.”

      Not according to these polls.

    76. MrVito says:

      The Dem internal had to drum up 7% for the libertarian to get a lead for Bollier.

    77. Annie says:

      My family in Doniphan County all say that Trump and Marshall will win Kansas.

    78. jason says:

      There is exactly ONE poll showing Bollier ahead. Let’s get real.

    79. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      I am loving the posts on here lately! South Carolina and Kansas are turning blue. We may get to 55 senators. Add that to super-majority in the House.

      Green New Deal is on the way. Livable wages coming right up. A government that doesn’t lie and kill people during a pandemic. An expanded Supreme Court that protests the rights of all Americans.

      It’s a beautiful day in America.

    80. MrVito says:

      The problem is we have a certain troll here that steals names of posters that post relatively infrequently.

    81. Annie says:

      I am seeing even more people online claiming that they are messing with polls when interviewed… They plan to vote straight Republican ticket, but are deliberately telling the pollsters that they are voting for Biden and Dems down ticket. If so, a lot of the polls are certainly not to be believed. Best to ignore the polls and just vote.

    82. MrVito says:

      Unfortunately, Dave does not give a rat’s behind about being on top of that anymore, it seems.

    83. Brandon says:

      People have stolen my name a few times.

    84. Country Dick Montana says:

      Gator/Obamacon

      So with the NGD you want to see high paying primarily Union jobs evaporate when the fossil fuel business is killed.

      A living wage just means that all wages go up and the cost of goods goes up. Or those people in low leveel jobs are simply replaced by robots. So there is no wage.

      Pack the court. Not sure that would happen.

      And what would Biden have done so as not to kill all those people. Seems your group of Governors of Governors (Cuomo, Wolf, Murphy, Newsome) did a banner job of that.

      You are just trolling now.

    85. MrVito says:

      Your Highness
      @valeriegoldburt
      ·
      2h
      Replying to
      @davereaboi
      and
      @Cernovich
      Streaming, here are some view #s:

      WSJ 2M
      Reuter’s 192k
      Sky News 333k
      Telemundo 530k
      CNN 1M
      CBS 3.9M
      PBS 853k
      Telegraph 946k
      NBC 2M
      Bloomberg 1.7M
      Global news 673k
      Fox business 1.3M
      C-SPAN 8.7M
      StevenCrowder 1.4M

      = 25.5M views alone, lots of other news/comment channels/streams

    86. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      Can’t believe there isn’t a thread about the NH poll. Just in case you missed it folks, the most friendly Trump pollster out there can only get Demented Don to within 14 points in NH. FOURTEEN POINTS. LOL. This is going to be such an epic beatdown.

      New Hampshire, @theamgreatness
      /@Rasmussen_Poll (R)

      Biden 56% (+14)
      Trump 42%

      (LV, 9/23-25)

    87. jason says:

      But they are not going to get the Scandinavian type.”

      Actually, not even the Scandinavians get that type, most of it is fawning media coverage by socialists who actually don’t live there.

      The suicide rate in Finland is 60% higher than the US, and both Sweden and Norway have suicide rates higher than the US.

      There is a tremendous amount of despair among younger people, could it be that they want more in life than a comfortable place to live and guaranteed medical care and a few other goodies thrown in?

      In Denmark, 18.3% of people aged 16 to 24 said they suffered from poor mental health – with the number rising to 23.8% for women in that age bracket.

      Norway saw a 40% increase over the five-year-period of young people seeking help for mental health difficulties.

      The report notes that in Finland, which ranked as the happiest world country in 2018, suicide was responsible for a third of all deaths among the age bracket.

      It found that young women consistently reported feeling depressed more than young men did.

      It is a society that stifles merit, competition, and self reliance. As you say, people have traded that for a certain level of comfort, but this is no socialist paradise.

      I have been to all the Scandinavian countries. I wouldn’t want to live in any of them. To me, their society is boring, sad, and uninspiring.

    88. Gordon Allen says:

      Bitterlaw. Your compression is escaping. My reference was to how JASON determined the sagacity of ” suburban women’ not myself. But as someone active in campaigns for 25 years,and having served on a Board of Education,and governmental affairs Chairman for a number of Chamber of Commerces in Connecticut,and inter alia having a millennial daughter,and attended innumerable soccer games when she was younger,with soccer mom’s,I know a little myself.
      Generalizations be are fraught with exceptions of course, but within the limitations of same I have little regard for the political, economic,or geo strategic alertness of soccer moms AS A CLASS ( Exceptions obviously noted).
      I understand you have had a VERY trying year and take that into account; but can’t you stop the instant adversarial approach to anyone/ anything? It might help deal with your wounds.

    89. jason says:

      It’s a beautiful day in America.”

      I bet a blood sucking parasite like you will still be unhappy though.

    90. jason says:

      You are just trolling now.”

      I warned you but you wanted his opinion.

    91. Gordon Allen says:

      Comprehension. This phone has a mind of its own with words.

    92. jason says:

      How many ” suburban women” have you interviewed on these subjects. My guess is few if any.”

      In the business world I run into a lot of them.

      I can’t think of one that would not know how many people on SCOTUS.

      I haven’t exactly interviewed them, but most are pretty darn smart.

      You are way off in left field on this, your view of suburban women is absolutely garbage.

    93. MikeKS says:

      I hope the poll that shows Marshall up 7 is right. There is another that has her down 2, and internally I understand it’s quite close. My view could change (I would have told you three days ago that marshall would win by 5, but right now, I think the debate will shift some people away) but right now this seat is in trouble. Not giving up at all by the way. But right now the trend for us is not good – not just here but elsewhere.

    94. MrVito says:

      Josh Caplan
      @joshdcaplan
      ·
      1h
      PHILLY INQUIRER: Memory sticks used to program Philadelphia voting machines stolen from warehouse

    95. Country Dick Montana says:

      90 – OK, you at least agree that they have asked for it and agreed to it, not have had it forced up on them. It works them.

      It would be interesting to compare the mental health statistics of say Alaska to that of the Scandinavian countries. In places where the sun doesn’t shine much for half the year, there is a lot of despair.

      That said, People in Denmark are the best looking fittest people I have ever seen in my life.

      So let’s end it here with this. educated suburbanites are knowingly voting for socialism. They think that they are getting the “idealized” Scandinavian version. But they will likely get the old British version or worse.

      Finally I have always wanted to go to South America, primarily Chile or Uruguay. Any thoughts on those places?

    96. jason says:

      “I live in KS and right now, Bollier is ahead.”

      Based on what exactly?

      But go make some money, bet on Bollier. You can get about 3-1.

      Sure thing.

    97. jason says:

      CDM wants to go to where I am from?

      So flattered.

    98. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      Think Demented Don will still refer to Rasmussen now that he is showing Biden up 8 nationally? Up 14 in NH?

    99. Country Dick Montana says:

      That is why I asked you. I know that are an expert on that.

    100. MrVito says:

      What could go wrong?

      NPR Politics
      @nprpolitics
      · 9h
      After nearly 100,000 voters received erroneous envelopes in their absentee ballot packages, the New York City Board of Elections announced a plan to print and mail new absentee ballots. https://trib.al/N7cx19N

    101. MrVito says:

      When they tried to cut off Reagan’s microphone…

      https://twitter.com/WhigsnTwigs/status/1311401295849250816

    102. Country Dick Montana says:

      “You are just trolling now.”

      I warned you but you wanted his opinion.”

      I really do try to give people the benefit of the doubt. Perhaps he has his reasons for wanting a DEM takeover. It also helps to know why it is our opponents feel the way they do if we wish to refute their arguments, or better yet bring them around to our way of thinking.

      If they simply to see the suffering of others then I kind of feel sorry for them. Hatred and envy are corrosive emotions that are a result of real self loathing. That would be tough to live with.

    103. MrVito says:

      Yashar Ali
      Elephant
      @yashar
      ·
      2h
      Did white liberal people miss the memo that it’s not their place to refer to black people as “Uncle Tom” or “c**n” cause this is the fourth time I’ve seen it this week.

    104. jason says:

      Both countries are great, but there is lot more to do in Chile. The contrast in ecosystems in incredible, from the most arid places on earth to mountains that make Pike’s Peal look like a molehill. Rugged coastlines, forests, lakes, glaciers, volcanos, vineyards, you name it. Best seafood in the world. And the wine might not sneer at you like a French wine, but the cost benefit is amazing.

      Why did I leave? Ah yes, that is another story.

      https://www.steppestravel.com/destinations/south-america/chile/torres-del-paine/

    105. jason says:

      It also helps to know why it is our opponents”

      Trolls are not opponents. They are trolls.

      Big Joe, a Dem that posts here and you can have an intelligent conversation with, is an opponent. We probably don’t agree on hardly anything, but he is willing to leave the reservation if he sees fit and does not come here to repeat talking points. He doesn’t use troll language like “Rethugs”, and I am sure I would enjoy having a beer with him.

    106. jason says:

      f they simply to see the suffering of others then I kind of feel sorry for them. Hatred and envy are corrosive emotions that are a result of real self loathing. That would be tough to live with.”

      That is why I say socialism won’t make them happy. They will be miserable, bitter, abd envy ridden under any system.

    107. Tina says:

      4
      29
      78

      Larry Schweikart
      @LarrySchweikart
      ·
      11m
      From “Freeper” Ravi: FL registration—D advantage now falls to 158,000 (300,000 in 2016).

      Thinks it could drop to only 140,000.

    108. Country Dick Montana says:

      I have done a bit of long distance biking, and one of the bucket list trips is the length of Chile through their alpine regions down to Patagonia. I may be getting too old for it but one can dream.

      Nice Guanacos BTW.

    109. Tina says:

      California, so not in play.

      M.Joseph Sheppard
      @SHEPMJS
      ·
      2h
      Below 60%!- Baby steps

      California Survey USA
      Biden59% 32%

      2016; 61.5 31.5

    110. Tina says:

      M.Joseph Sheppard
      @SHEPMJS
      ·
      2h
      Poll of the Day
      @YouGov

      (Not YouGov Economist)

      All Voters Trump Approval 46%
      D+ 11.5 (D39/I33.5/R27.5)
      Hispanics Trump 34% Blacks 14%

    111. jason says:

      Wow.

      Wyoming is appealing for hunters in the United States to visit their state and shoot as many goats as possible, in what one official termed “every hunter’s dream”.

      The 100 mountain goats in the Grand Teton National Park are considered by state and federal officials an invasive animal, and a threat to the region’s bighorn sheep.”

      Goat is delicious almost as good as llama.

      If Tgca ever tried a goat leg over an open fire he would abandon fake burgers for good.

    112. Country Dick Montana says:

      I know that I am in the minority here with regard to Big Joe. I see him as sort of this concern troll type, except more of the “we will all be all right” if were to all vote DEM. As far as talking points he has none. Try to pin him down on what policies he supports and why he supports them and you will get some “good government”, “bipartisan”, “fair share” answer. Nothing of any substance. That is because we can blow up just about any argument he might have.

      He is here to be the “nice DEM.” The one that will smile but feel badly when someone puts a bullet in the back of your skull.

      I still think he is Obamacon, along with Gator. The guy has more personalities than Sybil.

    113. jason says:

      California is in play!!!

      Sorry, I got to go troll somewhere.

    114. Tina says:

      He beats bubu on the stock market.

      He also beats the Clinton Groupie on the stock market.

      I believe both jebots talked down the market during 12/18 and early January of 2019.

      I believe one or both jebots admitted to owning no stocks (as does their role model, China Biden.

    115. Robbie says:

      Brazil was hit quite hard this Summer by corona, but their number of daily cases is now clearly in decline. While the country had lockdowns early on, they are now mostly living life. In much the way Sweden allowed corona to run its course, so has Brazil. We in the US have mostly allowed corona to run it’s course, but because our population is so spread out, it has taken the outbreak time to move through the various regions of the country. It seems clear to me now that had we done nothing, the out break would have long since ended. To be honest, the outbreak across the country may be over before a vaccine becomes available.

    116. jason says:

      You are wrong about Big Joe. He was here long before Roadkill Maggot, and in fact Roadkill Maggot insults all the time.

      I think he makes good points, I just don’t particularly agree with them.

      And I never thought he had different personalities. Pretty steady guy.

      He has been quite fair with GA elections, btw.

    117. Country Dick Montana says:

      I meant Obamacon/Gator with the multiple personalities (one of which is BJ.) Heck he might even be Chester and PhilS.

      I know that I am in the minority about him, even if he is only one guy.

    118. Tina says:

      Boeing moves all Dreamliner production to South Carolina.
      Lots of jobs coming.

      Lindsey Graham
      @LindseyGrahamSC
      ·
      4h

      US Senate candidate, SC
      Great news for South Carolina and a compliment to the
      @weareboeingsc
      workforce!

      This would never have come to pass had President Obama’s NRLB been allowed to shut Boeing’s South Carolina operations down!

      https://live5news.com/2020/09/30/report-boeing-move-all-dreamliner-production-sc/…

      #scnews

    119. Country Dick Montana says:

      Jason, you have me dropping Google Map street views of highways in Chile. I want to go there.

    120. jason says:

      The analysis on Brazil is fairly accurate, but they still had massive lockdowns and in many areas businesses are still on more severe lockdowns than they are here. In many cities you can only shop 3 days a week and because normally retail stores have a lot of employees, many had to fire people to make space for customers who were social distancing.

      But since Brazil has a pro-business President and does not have the infrastructure/resources to keep everyone at home for months on end, the restrictions have been somewhat “rolling”.

      Still it has been no picnic either. 5 million cases almost 150k deaths. Without lockdowns they would have overwhelmed their fragile public sector network.

      I still don’t agree with do nothing approach. You can’t overwhelm the hospitals, it is politically untenable. Possibly IF we had only isolated nursing homes and high risk people right from the get go we might have gotten away with no shutdowns, and certainly we could have cut deaths at least in half.

    121. Tina says:

      Robert Barnes
      @Barnes_Law
      ·
      1h
      The big drop-off in watching the debate from 2016 to 2020 was the precise group Biden needs to show unusual interest & enthusiasm: zoomers & millenials, where the ratings were down by more than a third from 2016.

    122. Tina says:

      The New York Times
      @nytimes
      · 4h
      The World Health Organization has long encouraged mass tourism and said closing borders wouldn’t stop the spread of Covid-19. A New York Times investigation found this policy was never based on science, but instead on politics and economics. https://nyti.ms/33iNUKp

    123. Big Joe says:

      I think I’ll have to add Dick to the list of commentators whose posts I skip over.

      I appreciate Jason having my back. Thanks Jason. Just for the record, I don’t consider you (or any American or ally) an opponent. Disagreement is a good thing and the people need to keep each other and our leadership honest.

      I know I’m taking Dick’s bait here, but this does bring to mind the old adage that ‘He who accuses is usually guilty of the crime himself’ or something like that.

      Dick has mentioned that he has followed HHR for a while but only began posting earlier this year. When he started posting, he immediately came after me using language and a line of attack that reminded me of a previous poster here. I can’t remember who and I didn’t think much of it. That poster is obviously no longer posting here, well not under his previous handle anyway. I’ll just leave it at that.

      BJ

    124. Big Joe says:

      Historically, HHR has been a blog where polls are posted and analyzed. That’s what brought me here in 2007 and it’s why I continue to come back.

      The polling analysis here is not what it used to be. But that’s ok.

      As far as these SC polls go, we’ll need to see more evidence of tightening at the Presidential level. There are now multiple polls that show the SC Senate race close. However my thesis remains that the same party will win Prez and Senate races in each state (just like 2016).

      It does look like Pennsylvania is where President Trump will make his last stand.

      BJ

    125. MrVito says:

      This is the journalist that tried to save that guy in Kenosha.

      RichieMcG
      @RichieMcGinniss
      · 6h
      My official ballot arrived!

      Along with ballots for four people who no longer live here (three of whom haven’t lived here in over SIX years)!

    126. MrVito says:

      I thought Big Joe came here pretending not to be an Obama supporter.

    127. Country Dick Montana says:

      Joe you are supposed to be the nice and reasonable Dem here. The reason I go after you is you never give a straight up answer. Like I said, platitudes and nothing of substance. Here is your chance. I just raised Jason’s ire by completing Scandinavian government safety net. You could try to convince me that might be better under specific policies that you would like to see implemted. The probl is you won’t state them. I will apologise for bullet in the skull comment. I am giving you your chance. Don’t be like Obamacon/Gator who simply trolls. Debate and convince me. My mind is open.

    128. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      127 – The polling analysis is incredibly easy

      PA – Biden winning by a lot
      NH – Biden winning by a lot (YUGE numbers)
      WI – Biden winning by a lot
      MI – Biden winning by a lot
      AZ – Biden winning by a moderate amount
      NV – Biden winning by a moderate amount
      NC – Biden winning by a little
      FL – Biden winning by a little
      GA – tied

      Nationally – Biden winning by a lot

      Senate seats going R – Alabama
      Senate seats going D – AZ, CO, NC, ME
      Too close to call – IA, SC, GA (both)
      Upsets to watch – KS, MT

      #Landslide

    129. Big Joe says:

      So about the debate. I did not watch it live. Went to Wal-mart and assembled an office chair for my wife instead. Read some crazy posts on Facebook, got insomnia, and decided to watch some of the debate.

      I thought the President answered the first question very well (it was about ACB). Grampa Joe had a tough time with it. I figured it was going to be Trump’s night. But then the interruptions started and talking over Biden and Wallace. Just as the “Shut up man” incident happened, I decided that I had enough.

      I was ready for someone to pop onto the screen and yell “LIVE FROM NY IT’S SATURDAY NIGHT!” :d

      As I posted yesterday, nothing will change. There are very few true undecided voters. Committed voters will not change teams just because their team did not perform well in a debate. They’ll dig in deeper and do better next time.

      The headlines suggest that it was just a big food fight and so no one won and no one lost. If Biden is truly in the lead, then this qualifies as a W for him. Pres. Trump needed to do something to wrestle away some voters or sway the few undecideds. We already know the bases are sticking with their candidate.

      BJ

    130. Big Joe says:

      Mr. V.

      I supported HRC in the 2008 primary. Then Obama in the GE. I don’t know what you mean by “pretending.”

      BJ

    131. Phil says:

      Barnes was on fire today. Really good on his takes on the debate. Said Trump missed some opportunities but overall, a net plus for Trump. He said that, contrary to what the news media likes to tell everyone, voters aren’t big on play by the rules gentlemanly debates. Trump understands this. They want the candidates to mix it up and measure how each does under stress. Said Trump made Biden look weak and weak candidates are not what voters, not even women voters, generally like (contrary to popular opinion). More voters gravitate to the strong horse than don’t.

      Said something else interesting. He said he keeps up with the analytics and one of those is the number of google hits a candidate gets. He said the candidate who gets googled the most has won every presidential election since 2000. He said it’s a direct indicator of voter intensity on each side and Trump is killing it almost 3 to 1 – by far the biggest margin ever. In 2012 Obama had a significantly big margin over Romney in that domain and that’s one of the main reasons he bet big on Obama. The google stat matches the polling regarding intensity and is more evidence that the Trump voters are really juiced and the Biden voters just are not – and Biden did not help himself last night with that. He needs far more and he isn’t getting them.

      Both he and Baris agreed this is a base turnout election. That’s how Trump won in 2016 and that’s how he will win this time. Republican Political consultants are completely wrong when they say candidates need to move to the political center in this kind of polarized environment. He said look at Romney. He tried it and actually carried independents and what did it get him? He left millions of potential working class voters behind and therefore got killed in the rust belt and even lost Florida. There was a base there and Romney didn’t go after them. Of course he was the last candidate in the world that could appeal to those kinds of voters.

      Both he and Baris said Trump will carry Florida and that one will be the first swing state called. Barnes said Democrats can’t steal Florida because of the election reforms that have been put into place there and the fact that Republicans control the governor’s office – won’t steal Ohio or Iowa either for the same reason – Republican governors.

    132. Tina says:

      Phil, nice summary. Thanks.

    133. MichiganGuy says:

      Wife of Boston Marathon hero said Biden touched her in ‘an inappropriate and uncomfortable way’
      .
      https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/wife-of-boston-marathon-hero-said-biden-touched-her-in-an-inappropriate-and-uncomfortable-way
      .
      Yeah, creepy joe is going to run on the character issue. LOL

    134. Robbie says:

      Robert Costa
      @costareports
      Former top aide to Speakers Boehner and Ryan
      @BrendanBuck: “This election is drifting toward what feels like a blowout [victory for Biden] and there needs to be some type of event that changes that… ”

      – We’ll see if this comes to pass (I don’t know), but this is the view that is forming among Republicans in DC who advise senate candidates.

      If this does become the consensus view, it could become more damaging to Trump than anything Biden says or does.

      Of course, there were lots of stories like this in 2016 and Trump still won. I think it’s a mistake to believe 2020 is a replay of 2016, but history while history doesn’t repeat it often rhymes.

    135. Bitterlaw says:

      Trump fired up his base. Trump also fired up Biden’s base (everybody who hates Trump). We’ll know when the counting and recounting is done if Trump’s performance paid off.

    136. JeffP says:

      134…I agree with this take Phil…base election and Trump has a huge lead in that.

      Also…Hispanic and black vote totals will be record breaking for Trump. I think they loved it last night too!

      Last thing…Trump was big on TWO Issues last night….open the damn country and law and order etc….these issues play to the ex burbs and suburbs better than riots and lockdowns.

      Baris has a better analysis on turnout models than any other pollster….think about it…when was the last general where the GOP candidate for President had Florida and Ohio pretty much locked up before election day? What does that really mean?

      From Indiana here…woudl love to see Vigo county poll.

    137. JeffP says:

      137…yep same old never trumper crap sandwich.

    138. JeffP says:

      I think Trumps base is bigger than Joes base. And he is proud of it too!

    139. Phil says:

      Tina, if you are interested you can go to People’s_Pundit twitter and scroll down quite a bit and they have a link to the podcast that you can watch. Barnes gets into the dynamics of the debate and how that will play going forward. Trump’s debate strategy and how that played out etc. They also discuss more of their polling numbers from Florida and what it means for turnout, shy Trump voters, etc. Pretty fascinating hour actually.

    140. Tina says:

      Ok, Phil. Thanks.

    141. Bitterlaw says:

      Trump has a solid record to run on. Every second he wasted on Delaware State and Joe’s grades took the focus off his accomplishments.

    142. Tina says:

      Noticias Telemundo
      @TelemundoNews
      Flag of United States #Decision2020: ¿Quién ganó el #PrimerDebate presidencial?

      #PresidentialDebate #PresidentialDebates2020
      Biden
      31.3%
      Trump
      68.7%
      9,414 votes · Final results
      7:39 PM · Sep 29, 2020·Twitter Web App

    143. Phil says:

      Great Robbie. More DC Republican insiders – the kind that advised Romney and McCain. They have no clue regarding the new alignment. Same guys that said Trump and the Republican senate candidates were going to take a bath in 2016. Advisor to Paul Ryan? Come on.

      When are the Republican establishment types going to ever learn?

    144. Robbie says:

      JeffP says:
      September 30, 2020 at 9:48 pm
      137…yep same old never trumper crap sandwich.

      – After the last four years, NeverTrump doesn’t exist among the consultant class who run Senate races. They’re mercenaries who want to win and Trump’s success pads their pockets. They realize their candidates sink or swim with Trump so none of them are rooting for his collapse. If Trump collapses, their candidates lose.

      That’s my view anyway. Sure, you can point to a rogue strategist here or there, but I’m talking about the people who actually run races. Not the bums who appear regularly appear on cable news.

    145. Tina says:

      Same old rehashed sheot from 2016.

      Nobody cares.

      We know that joe was gashed last night.

    146. Tina says:

      Phil,

      Barnes looked at data.

      Young people and Hispanics turned away from China Biden.

      Not to mention how upset the Bernie/AOC bots are.

    147. Robbie says:

      Phil says:
      September 30, 2020 at 9:56 pm
      Great Robbie. More DC Republican insiders – the kind that advised Romney and McCain. They have no clue regarding the new alignment.

      – I’ll be honest. I’m not a buyer of the realignment you’re mentioning. I think what’ve we’ve seen over the last four years is a Trump-specific phenomenon that will likely revert after he’s left the scene, but time will tell.

      Whether these DC Republicans are establishment or not, they’re seeing the polling that’s being done foe Senate candidates.

      I find what Baris is saying to be very interesting, but I’m not where he is, at least not yet.

    148. JeffP says:

      Funniest line last night…”When a bat hits you over the head, that’s not an idea.”

      – Trump on Antifa

    149. Phil says:

      Biden needs his 18-29 age group to turn out big who more than any other age group support

      Medicare for all

      Defund the police

      green new deal

      Trump got Biden to say he was opposed to all of that. That’s called depressing the other side’s turnout. Nice work, Joe.

      It’s a base election.

    150. Bitterlaw says:

      There is no post-Trump movement or ideology that will carry forward beyond this election. Trump is a unique figure.

    151. Pitchaboy says:

      Does Robbie also post as Jaichind?

    152. Tina says:

      This morning there was concern about muh stock futures.

    153. Robbie says:

      Pitchaboy says:
      September 30, 2020 at 10:08 pm
      Does Robbie also post as Jaichind?

      – No. I post what I think and believe. I know it’s not in phase with most in this forum, but we’ll see if I was wrong in about five weeks.

    154. JeffP says:

      Are you kidding me…the GOP is building a new coalition…no question…the Romney , Ryan, Bush types are DONE… TOAST…Kristi Noem, Desantis, Hawley, Scott… those are fighters and will carry the torch of the Trump base…bank on it for 2024. NO GOP candidate will have a chance unless they keep the working class and dd to the minority vote that is booming now.

    155. Bitterlaw says:

      Phil – I am sure that those who support all of those things knows Biden will get them closer to those goals than Trump. They will turn out.

    156. Big Joe says:

      #130, Dick-

      Apology accepted.

      With all due respect, we engaged all weekend sometime in April. During that exchange I clearly told you that I wasn’t interested in some long drawn out discussion because I feel it’s fruitless. People will not change their views and that’s fine. Nonetheless, we had what I thought was a good exchange. I won’t repeat myself as we’ve already been through this and you know where I stand.

      But then you went ahead and proved me right by calling me “dangerous,” the “bullet in the skull” comment, attacking me for not reading a 110 page policy document, and then trying to turn this board against me with your accusations about Gators or whoever. You engaged in trollish behavior and nearly earned yourself a 2.111 (that’s for HHR old timers).

      For that reason, I hope you will understand why I don’t feel the need to convince you of anything. You are welcome to believe anything you want and vote for whoever you want. You’re not a bad guy or an America hater or anything like that. We just disagree but we love our country. I will still help you if you are stuck in a ditch or need help finding your lost dog. We are not adversaries. That’s my personal view.

      I’ve never been interested in diving into policy details. I don’t have the time for that nor does it excite me in any way. This isn’t a duck and run. If you want to talk about a certain topic, ok but please don’t put a 110 page PDF in front of me 😀 . You know what my overall vision is: A merit based system with a safety net for those left behind through no fault of their own, strategic government investments, and people being civil to each other. Is this a perfect system? Of course not, but no system is.

      I’m more interested in polling / electoral analysis and again, that’s what initially brought me to HHR.

      BJ

    157. Tina says:

      Remember when the jebots were pro WHO?

      The New York Times
      @nytimes
      · 5h
      The World Health Organization has long encouraged mass tourism and said closing borders wouldn’t stop the spread of Covid-19. A New York Times investigation found this policy was never based on science, but instead on politics and economics. https://nyti.ms/33iNUKp

    158. Robbie says:

      Bitterlaw says:
      September 30, 2020 at 10:07 pm
      There is no post-Trump movement or ideology that will carry forward beyond this election. Trump is a unique figure.

      – This is my general view as well. Trump is a unique, one-off political figure. When others have tried to copy him, they have failed. Only Trump can do Trump.

      That’s not to say populism won’t play a bigger role in Republican politics, but it was already playing a role through the Tea Party movement. In fact, 2014 was powered by a populist element as well.

      My guess is the party post-Trump, whether that’s 2021 or 2025, will look a lot more like 2014 than 2019.

    159. JeffP says:

      Trump is an anomaly for sure….but he has made a point to fight for and try and win the culture war…which is crucial…to any GOP candidate in the future. That is where he lost 2008 2012 with weak soft GOP types…

    160. Tina says:

      And the nice work by China Biden last night caused the ratio gs among the yute watchers to plunge.

      Barris/Barnes noted that.

    161. Big Joe says:

      Getting back to the debate. There is plenty of precedent of an incumbent president “losing” the first debate and not being affected.

      – Obama was crushed in the first debate by Mitt.
      – W had a poor showing against Kerry in the first debate.

      Both came back to have strong 2nd and 3rd debates and won re-election.

      Again, debates don’t matter.

      BJ

    162. Phil says:

      It absolutely is a realigning election and you saw the broad outlines of it in 2016. It’s a realignment by education and class. White educated suburbs going toward Democrats, working class whites going towards Republicans. It’s an economic realignment along class lines….and BTW it is sort of extending to minorities as well – working class Hispanics and working class Black men are ticking up for Trump this time – again, along class and education lines. Baris found 16 to 18 percent of blacks supporting Trump in Pa in his rust belt poll – all among working class. Same is true of Hispanics. Expect Trump to increase his percentage 5-6 percent among Hispanics.

      Its a change in the electorate that we haven’t seen before and it’s different.

    163. Bitterlaw says:

      BJ- HHR used to be a place for raucous and often vicious debate. It was fun. The real Democrats mostly left and now we get trolls. I wish posters like Kwame, Aaron in Texas and Keybored would return.

    164. MrVito says:

      There is no pre-Trump ideology to carry forward. He needs to be re-elected and the GOP can continue to redefine itself going forward.

    165. Robbie says:

      JeffP says:
      September 30, 2020 at 10:16 pm
      Trump is an anomaly for sure….but he has made a point to fight for and try and win the culture war…which is crucial…to any GOP candidate in the future. That is where he lost 2008 2012 with weak soft GOP types…

      – I don’t agree with 2008. We didn’t lose that race because of a lack of fight over the culture war. We lost that race because the Iraq war was extremely unpopular and the economy was in freefall. Despite all of that, McCain was in position win after his convention and may well have won had Lehman Brothers not collapsed.

    166. JeffP says:

      We have soft GOP governor in Indiana now…he really sucks too…during Corona was lame… I will never vote again for someone like that. I am on the Kristi Noem or DeSAntis bandwagon baby.

    167. JeffP says:

      Yeah the crash of 2008 cost Johnny Mac…I dont think so…Obama wiped him out and Johnny Mac was weak on culture war…he wouldnt even call out Obama for the socialist he was…

    168. JeffP says:

      in 2008 is when I had enough of Sean Hannity repeating the same stuff every night…he is terrible that way….Tucker and Laura are leagues above that guy. LOLOLOL

    169. Phil says:

      Trump is a unique figure. Republicans will have to follow him with the same appeal towards working class voters, a populist message if you will….but yeah, Trump is unique. No other Republican could pull off what he’s pulled off.

      These polls showing Biden way ahead are showing the electorate at about 165 to 170 million. Not going to happen. It was 139 million last time and because of population increases will probably hit 145. Never, in the history of presidential elections the turnout increased anything like what these pollsters are basing their electorate universe on – and certainly not with the kind of tepid support Biden is generating in poll after poll.

    170. Bitterlaw says:

      I’m not sure that “We’re the less educated party” is a rallying cry for sustained electoral success.

    171. Tina says:

      Bush crashing the economy and lying us into Iraq, while exporting jobs to China did not help.

    172. Marv says:

      I am presuming a Trump victory this year and it’s not too early to give some thought to 2024, just for fun.

      Any thoughts on Pence at the top of the ticket?

    173. Tina says:

      Hannity also interrupts his guests too much.

      He is a bit low IQ.

      Probably a nice guy, but Faux sucks with Lunkind and the other leftists running it.

    174. JeffP says:

      167…yep it is the only way forward unless you want to be socialist country in 8-10 years.

      I sure hope ACB stays true. That is a bug win if she is nominated and maybe more important than Trump winning.

    175. NYCmike says:

      I would say 2008 was a combination of Lehman, Palin, and a YUGE dose of “gentleman” McCain. Cindy would have been mad if Johnny had gone after Saint Obama like he should have.

    176. MrVito says:

      “We’re the less educated party”

      That’s the kind of talk that got you Trump.

    177. Big Joe says:

      #166, Bitter-

      “I wish posters like Kwame, Aaron in Texas and Keybored would return.”

      KB was a cool cat, Aaron was a nice guy, I don’t remember much about Kwame. I liked Eph Rove, he provided some much needed comic relief. 😀

      BJ

    178. Tina says:

      Yup gop-e shipping jobs to China, Mexico, and Krapistan and calling people less educated, while doing plenty of stupid wars.

      Great job.

    179. Phil says:

      McCain was never going to beat Obama. The economic situation made the doubled the final margin is all.

      The old Republican country club voters plus evangelical culture voters was just enough in 2004. It doesn’t fly now and hasn’t since.

      You got to have those working class whites that Kerry and Obama got if you are going to carry Pennsylvania and lock down Ohio. It’s economic and class driven.

    180. NYCmike says:

      “Any thoughts on Pence at the top of the ticket?”

      -4 years ago, I didn’t think he could win a general election.

      NOW, I think he would be great! He is definitely a conservative, he could run in rural areas as Trump’s right hand man, the religious right would follow him, and he would be in stark contrast to Trump in terms of personal style, which may help after 8 years (fingers-crossed.)

    181. Bitterlaw says:

      Kwame was a worthy adversary.
      Chekote was crazy but better than our trolls.

    182. MrVito says:

      If you are hoping to make inroads with minorities, the GOP is going to have to appeal to those with “less” education. School choice, small business, urban safety, working class and tradesman….

    183. MrVito says:

      The people coming out now with post-grad degrees are indoctrinated to all hell.

    184. JeffP says:

      175…I LOVE Mike Pence…he is a super nice man and real as can be. Our family has met him and he was my congressman…but I just think he is too nice for this bloodsport now….My dream would be for him to win in 2024…but he is not a fighter…trusts the wrond people kind of nice. I am sure some of you can name some names. I saw someone compare this season in our country to Rome and Pompey at the end of the Republic….might have been Baris…sad but I think he is right. We are a permanently fractured country because of the MSM and left wing takeover of the DNC. Accept it….

      I am still laughing..

      ”When a bat hits you over the head, that’s not an idea.”

    185. Big Joe says:

      I’m surprised rdel has not come back to gloat about the Delbov Curve.

      Poor guy was skewered when the Delbov Curve laid an egg in 2008.

      Turns out he was a genius visionary who was simply ahead of his time. Like Galileo.

      BJ

    186. Marv says:

      NYCmike,

      Valid points about Pence.

      You watching the Yankees on ESPN?

    187. Tina says:

      It seems like former and current fib directorS are prone to memory loss.

      Chuck Ross
      @ChuckRossDC
      ·
      12m
      Icymi: Comey claims he didn’t know:

      *Steele source disputed dossier
      *Steele source had been investigated as possible Russian spy
      *CIA thought dossier was “Internet rumor”
      *FBI had evidence Russian disinfo in dossier
      *Chit

    188. Robbie says:

      In terms of realignment, I’m just not there yet. I find it hard to believe suburban Atlanta voters, for instance, who consistently voted for conservative Republican candidates through 2016 have suddenly become liberal Democrats who support an agenda that’s to the left of Obama.

      Trump has been a whirling dervish (creative?) destruction in politics. He walked in to the store, knocked over all of shelves, and has thrived in the mayhem. But when he’s gone does his coalition survive?

      As we saw with Obama, the coalition he created was solely held together by him. But when he was not on the ballot (2010, 2014, 2016), Democrats did poorly. I’m just not sure the coalition Trump created is a permanent one.

      I’m not suggesting the party reverts back to the GWB/Romney days, but we had already left their approach, style, and demeanor behind by 2014. The party of 2015 (pre Trump announcement) was a more populist one, but not a fully populist one.

      I’ll end with this. If I had to choose today, I would pick Nikki Haley to be the 2024 nominee. She was part of the 2010 Tea Party election, but she was not from the more extreme wing of that movement. Does anyone think Haley would struggle with suburban voters who had been lifelong Republicans in places like the Atlanta suburbs, but had drifted away in 2018 and 2020 because of dislike for Trump? I just don’t see it.

    189. NYCmike says:

      “You watching the Yankees on ESPN?”

      -At work.

      Friends giving me updates, mainly complaining about Stanton (then he hit HRs yesterday and today) and Sanchez (trying the same tactic as with Stanton).

      Impressed with the Florida Marlins, under Jeter. His first move, getting rid of Stanton, looks like it was the right call.

    190. Dump Trump says:

      Very good polls for Mr. Biden and before the debate. Look out for a big jump for Mr. Biden on Monday when the debate is fully incorporated in the polling.

      America does not want a toddler in the White House.

    191. Robbie says:

      Phil says:
      September 30, 2020 at 10:33 pm
      McCain was never going to beat Obama. The economic situation made the doubled the final margin is all.

      The old Republican country club voters plus evangelical culture voters was just enough in 2004. It doesn’t fly now and hasn’t since.

      – Still that coalition of voters in 2004 garnered 51% of the popular vote and 2004 remains the only time since 1988 a Republican has won the popular vote.

    192. NYCmike says:

      “Trump has been a whirling dervish (creative?) destruction in politics. He walked in to the store, knocked over all of shelves, and has thrived in the mayhem. But when he’s gone does his coalition survive?

      As we saw with Obama, the coalition he created was solely held together by him. But when he was not on the ballot (2010, 2014, 2016), Democrats did poorly. I’m just not sure the coalition Trump created is a permanent one.”

      -The policies they pushed are different, and they are getting a real-life thrashing out as we speak……..which is the main reason why I insisted on framing any question to you as a choice between policies of individual freedom and choice vs Obama’s top-down prescriptions.

      I hope you will really vote for Trump, and bring others with you.

    193. Bitterlaw says:

      The only people I know who belong to country clubs are very conservative Republicans and very liberal Democrats.

    194. MrVito says:

      Coalitions don’t survive. Maps change.

    195. Bitterlaw says:

      Mr. Vito is channeling his inner Chinua Achebe.

    196. MrVito says:

      The GOP screwed up when they did not repeal and replace…
      I stated in 2018 that the election was lost on health care in the final month, looking at the Gallup poll. Every ad may as well have been Jimmy Kimmel crying that your health care would be taken away with nothing for preexisting conditions.

      I was ridiculed by some…

      Incredibly, I heard Barnes say EXACTLY that the other day. By giving the thumbs down, McCain assured the people who were already rattled by health care would not trust the GOP congress who promised it, AND made sure the Democrats controlled the ball for the next election.

    197. Bitterlaw says:

      The plan that McCain voted against neither repealed nor replaced Obamacare.

    198. MrVito says:

      Trump, however, said at literally EVERY rally before then and since, that he would protect health care and preexisting conditions… that’s difficult when the GOP wonks demand an Obamacare reversal in court.

      The Kavanaugh debacle united republicans and turned out the base, enough to flip senate seats in GOP states. But the squishy Suburbanites were lost.

      Everyone knows people who have been screwed preexisting conditions or lost health care.

    199. MrVito says:

      202 Call it what you want, that bill took the issue off the table, and the GOP blew it.

    200. MrVito says:

      I doubt you will be getting those people back.

    201. NYCmike says:

      Bitterlaw defending McCain on his thumbs down is just as bad as jason’s Fauci-sainthood push.

    202. NYCmike says:

      Repeal of Obamacare should have been the first item done on Jan 20, 2016.

      The Republicans would have had 18-22 months to work on a replacement, preferably by voting separately on individual parts.

      But NO, Paul Ryan had other ideas.

    203. NYCmike says:

      ** “Jan 20, 2017.” **

    204. MrVito says:

      As a reminder, in 2018 gallup had health care as the number one issue. The Dems were playing ad after ad on health care in the squishy suburban areas.

      In the exit poll, 41% named health care as the top issue, and the Dems won 75-23% on it.

    205. Justin says:

      For a trip down memory lane

      RCP Poll Averages in Battleground states on October 1, 2016.

      Arizona: Trump 42, Clinton 39
      Colorado: Trump 41, Clinton 40.5
      Florida: Clinton 44.8, Trump 42.8
      Georgia: Trump 45.8, Clinton 41
      Iowa: Trump 42.8, Trump 37.8
      Maine: Clinton 40.8, Trump 37
      Michigan: Clinton 43, Trump 38
      Nevada: Trump 42.2, Clinton 42
      New Hampshire: Clinton 42.5, Trump 36.8
      North Carolina: Trump 42.1, Clinton 41.3
      Ohio: Trump 42.7, Clinton 40.7
      Pennsylvania: Clinton 43.6, Trump 41.8
      Virginia: Clinton 43.3, Trump 36.5
      Wisconsin: Clinton 43, Trump 38

      While the differences in many states are similar to what they were four years ago, the undecideds are far fewer.

      Thoughts?

    206. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      193. “America does not want a toddler in the White House.

      Don’t believe they want a mentally decrepit old man either.

    207. Dump Trump says:

      “Thoughts?

      Easy victory for Mr. Biden and a Democratic Senate.

    208. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      210

      Thoughts? Trump is about to get CRUSHED

    209. NYCmike says:

      Is it October?

      The trolls are coming!

    210. jason says:

      The plan that McCain voted against neither repealed nor replaced Obamacare.”

      Exactly.

      Not to mention karma is a bit-ch.

      I wonder if Trump ever actually regrets attacking McCain’s military record.

      It sure has had no upside for him.

    211. Donald John Trumps Golf Khakis says:

      The only question at this point is whether President Biden’s win looks more like 1996 or 1984.

      https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CsHwh_sWIAAlB7W.jpg

    212. jason says:

      think what’ve we’ve seen over the last four years is a Trump-specific phenomenon that will likely revert after he’s left the scene, but time will tell.”

      We are all socialists now, say the Never Trumpers.

      They are not going to “revert”, and frankly I don’t want anything to do with them.

      They will either be on the winning side or the losing side. Either way the electorate that brought about Trump is here to stay. Might not be a majority, but they are not going back.

    213. NYCmike says:

      That’s actually a nice follow-thru…….which is why your Biden-Harris better be ready to fight all the way thru Election Day, because Le Grand Orange won’t give up.

    214. NYCmike says:

      “I wonder if Trump ever actually regrets attacking McCain’s military record.”

      -Why would Trump regret it?

      If he loses, he goes back with Melania and plays golf every day.

      The people who McCain screwed over are the ones who have to pay the outlandish premiums.

    215. jason says:

      ’ll end with this. If I had to choose today, I would pick Nikki Haley to be the 2024 nominee.”

      Zzzzzz…. Robbie supports here until she is the nominee.

      Then he will be here to trash her every night.

      Nothing will be too low.

    216. jason says:

      Does anyone think Haley would struggle with suburban voters who had been lifelong Republicans in places like the Atlanta suburbs, but had drifted away in 2018 and 2020 because of dislike for Trump? I just don’t see it.”

      Sorry, but “Atlanta suburbs” don’t elect a Republican president anymore.

      First you need a solid base like Trump has.

      Haley might do well in the suburbs (questionable) but is she going to carry rural PA by huge numbers like Trump did? I doubt it.

      I like Nikki Haley, don’t get me wrong, but her “coalition” would be weaker than McCain’s or Romney’s and they both lost.

    217. NYCmike says:

      On 270ToWin, I have it Trump 260 – Biden 216, with NV WI MN MI and PA undecided.

      Am I overconfident in that?

      The hardest part will be the last climb.

    218. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      Trump did emphasis what I believe will be a major issue in how people vote. People want “law and order” restored.

    219. NYCmike says:

      Actually, looking again, I have it Trump 249 – Biden 216, with NV, AZ WI MN MI and PA undecided.

    220. Big Joe says:

      Wild Yankee game tonight.

      BJ

    221. Dump Trump says:

      127 “Historically, HHR has been a blog where polls are posted and analyzed

      Seriously? This is Brietbart lite . This is Proud Boys Central. The only analysis here about polls is that they are FAKE FAKE and FAKE. Great analyzing.

    222. Simon says:

      Clap your hands.

    223. JeffP says:

      223 I agree and everyone knows it too…I would also add…open the damn country and get back to normal…those two issues could do it. Not to mention…economy going forward. Issues are on Trumps favor now. Just needs to be a tiny bit more Presidential.

    224. Justin says:

      I figured law and order would be polling higher as an issue, but it doesn’t seem to have broken through. Particularly with suburban woman, where Trump needs help big time.

    225. John says:

      The women will remember the looting and rioting in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. They don’t want the looting thugs coming into their suburban neighborhoods. You can count on it. Landslide is building.

    226. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      There was another Kansas poll that seemed to be missed; a daily kos poll:

      KANSAS
      Trump 52% (+10)
      Biden 42%

      #KSsen:
      Marshall (R) 50% (+7)
      Bollier (D) 43%

      @Civiqs/@dailykos, LV, 9/26-29
      https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_DailyKos_KS_

    227. KennethTucky says:

      ???? ?? ??????????? ???????????? ?????? (??????)
      ??? ?????? ?????? ??????? «SEO ????????????»,?? ??? ??? ????? ?????????.
      ? ????? ?????? ?? ????????? ?? ?????? ??????????-?????? ???.
      https://offeramazon.ru/2020/09/25/xrumer/

    228. Country Dick Montana says:

      Looks like BJ and I keep different hours, so hopefully he reads this.

      The first two things that you describe that you want the government to provide “A merit based system with a safety net for those left behind through no fault of their own” is pretty much provided regardless of who is in.

      Strategic government investments, I am not sure what you mean by this, There are certain things that a government is probably better then the private sector (fighting wars being the primary one, Transportation systems being secondary.)I would leave the private sector for mot other things.

      People being civil to each other. The political insults are an equal opportunity thing. I have made no bones about living in a large city in SWPA. HRC won my precinct with 91% of the vote. Stein, Johnson and Sanders get half of the vote Trump did. Most of my neighbors are not my enemies (while they might be political opponents)and there is respect. However, there have been people who have been less than civil to me who are the ones that are out blocking streets and burning cars. And I have a no doubt that there are more than a few who would do exactly what I alluded to in my other comments. I would bet in your neighborhood you don’t have to have concerns about political violence because you hold a different view than your Republican neighbors. Where I live, a Trump bumper sticker is an invitation to have your car keyed and a sign on your porch invites paint and broken windows. That is very real to me.

      The government won’t make us voluntarily civil to each other,. That is an issue of personal character. Governments can enforce a silence that leads to a certain level of civility through force and coercion.

      Policy is important and you seem to be be one of the more articulate ones of the DEM persuasion here. That is why I get so frustrated with you> Of all the people here you are in the best position to educate us.

      Are you for policies that will eliminate the high paying jobs of nearly 5% of the work force that is employed by the fossil fuel industry? The NGD is a very real policy that has very real ramifications for a lot of people I know. If you are why is that

      Are you for greater regulation of firearms? Why? The majority of firearms crimes are committed by criminals.

      Are you for an ever expanding Federal Government that involves itself through regulation in more and more aspects of our lives and property? If so Why?

      Are you for higher taxes and redistribution of wealth? If so, how much of the work that I produce should be confiscated and provided to someone who may not work as hard as me or a Government employee who is paid to regulate me. How much? 10%? 30%? 90%? and why.

      Are you for policies that accuse a person of being a racist based purely on the color of their skin and that those people owe reparations of sorts for that particular accident of birth. One can argue that Johnson’s Great Society has caused much harm to minority families. (Daniel Moynihan did it better than I can.) Are you for continuing these policies and why?

      Those are just a few questions and I don’t expect answers to them. But if you don’t think they are important, then what is?

      The main difference between conservatives and progressives is that I truly believe that most conservatives (with exceptions of course) want to be left alone and are willing to leave others alone to live their lives. Progressives on the other hand have a need to rule and regulate and put their faith in a large government, elected and unelected, to enforce their vision on those with whom they disagree.

    229. I love Mojoheadz. https://www.flickr.com/groups/4155236@N24/ Focusing on the deeper and melodic shades of house, Mojoheadz’s imprint has been a strong purveyor of tracks that DJs simply love to play and when coming across the unmistakable abstract record covers at record stores, they simply beg our attention.Check review!

    230. Gordon Allen says:

      Good article Country Dick. Some considerable time and thinking involved.

    231. jaichind says:

      Bed Bath and Beyond comparable-store sales rose 6% in the second quarter ended Aug. 29 versus a 1.3%. This is indicative of the consumer economy recovery. Trump should run on the economic recovery.

    232. Country Dick Montana says:

      https://triblive.com/local/westmoreland/biden-scores-big-union-wins-on-train-trek-through-western-pennsylvania/

      Interesting article. The Union leadership is for Biden, but it is the rank and file that is for Trump.

      I think these so called leaders are like the inner city pastors that get “walking around money” from Democrats, while betraying the people they claim to represent.

    233. Marv says:

      RAS Twitter feed indicates Trump approval is up.

    234. jason says:

      “Seriously? This is Brietbart lite . This is Proud Boys Central. The only analysis here about polls is that they are FAKE FAKE and FAKE. Great analyzing.”

      Yet here you are.

    235. jason says:

      Union boss says Biden’s fracking ban statements have been “misconstrued”.

      LOL

    236. Country Dick Montana says:

      https://www.nzherald.co.nz/travel/news/article.cfm?c_id=7&objectid=12365986

      Saw this nugget on a Linkedin feed. Patagonia (the apparel maker) is sewing political statements into its clothing. GOP had a great answer:

      “Corporate giant hijacking our public lands debate to sell more products to wealthy, elitist urban dwellers from New York and San Fransisco.”

      It is true. We have millions of acres of public land that is used for recreation by a very small portion of our population.

      The US can certainly do a better job of getting the most $$$ for timber and mineral extraction on public lands, but that is a different subject entirely.

    237. Tina says:

      And really good weekly claims

      I always recommend looking at the 4 week averages, especially now.

      Christian Fromhertz
      @cfromhertz
      ·
      53m
      *U.S. INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS FELL TO 837K LAST WEEK; EST. 850K
      *U.S. CONTINUING CLAIMS FALL TO 11.8M; EST. 12.2M
      *U.S. AUG. PERSONAL INCOME FALLS 2.7% M/M; SPENDING RISES 1%
      *U.S. AUG. PCE PRICE INDEX RISES 0.3% M/M; EST. 0.3%

    238. Tina says:

      I don’t know anything about Proud Boys or whatever they are called.

      I do know Antifa has caused billion of dollars in property damage and are domestic terrorists.

    239. Marv says:

      RAS Tracker 49/51 -6

      Nice move for Trump. Sunday dropped off.

    240. Tina says:

      The big move in Ras must be due to the stunning debate performance that rocked Biden.

      -Anti Jebot

    241. RuRu says:

      Re: Polling

      Honestly – about the only issue to discuss is: Is there a HUGE Trump shy vote or not. That’s the ball game.

      Reasons to believe:

      1 – Trafalgar
      2 – UCS Dornsafe Poll of how your close contacts are voting for
      3 – big shy vote in 2016 and rational explanation as to why it could be more shy now
      4 – Trump rally turnout is still big
      5 – do you really know many people who have changed their minds since 2016
      6 – safety/law and order is a quiet issue but strong – and will show up in the vote

      Reasons to not believe:

      1 – most all other polling says no way
      2 – most polling for secondary races also shows a shift away from Rs (SC, Kansas, Iowa whatever – exception might be MI)
      3 – most other polling shows a widening gap – not a narrowing gap. If they want to show ‘truth’ by election day that will need to start to narrow soon.
      4 – Trump is hurt with over 65 due to Covid
      5 – appears to be larger D advantage in early voting ballot requests.

      And so it goes. There is either a huge shy vote or not. This election outcome is probably the most uncertain to me anyway – in a long, long time.

    242. Tina says:

      No bias from cbs here. Poll observers from La Dumb is ok.

      Trump poll watchers bad,

      https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1311656644355424260

    243. Marv says:

      Tina,

      Trump is a alpha male, Biden is not.

    244. Marv says:

      Trump is an* Alpha male.

    245. Tina says:

      Marv,

      They are mad because trump did what Biden did to Ryan in 2012.

      Obvious that Biden could not respond and had to be saved several times by Wallace.

    246. OHIO Joe says:

      RAS Tracker 49/51 -6

      Nice move for Trump. Sunday dropped off. I guess the debate was not quite as disastrous for Mr. Trump as the nay-sayer feared.

    247. Marv says:

      Tina,

      Yep, Wallace covered for Biden for most of the night. Even so, Trump spent most of the night on offense and thrilled his base.
      It’s look like that RNC and the Trump Campaign have determined that this is largely going to be a base turn-out election. It’s clear that Trump’s base is more enthused than is Biden’s base.

    248. OHIO Joe says:

      Sorry Marv, I forgot to put quotes around your statement.

    249. Marv says:

      Thanks, OHIO Joe.

      Buckeyes any good this year?

    250. hugh says:

      Marv. I wish I could agree regarding trump thrilled his base. For background, I did not watch the debate. I have checked in with a number of my friends with whom we exchange political views. All of them are what I would describe as white suburban professionals. All die hard republicans and all voting for trump. All of them with two exceptions turn off the debate in total disgust in about 15 minutes. One of my friends had a debate party 4 couples of like mind and all of them were extremely frustrated and unfortunately watched the whole thing. One of our couple friends the husband gave up in 5 minutes the wife stayed with it and is now sure trump will lose though she has not changed her vote. Did this help with suburban undecideds I doubt it. The good news is biden was also bad. I think what made them most unhappy is that biden would have hung himself if trump just let him. What I dont know is how this plays with other parts of trumps coalition. I cannot put head into a rural blue collar worker.

      I believe the reason viewership was down is that many republican could not stomach trumps behavior and turn off the tv.

      I hope I was wrong, but I have spoke with at least 10 friends and all of them could not stand trump behavior. All but 2 could not last 15 minutes watching. All of them will still vote for trump.

    251. dblaikie says:

      Well just like I thought the Sunday numbers rolled off Rasmussen and Trump is back at 49 percent. Better yet for the first night after the debate his numbers must have been strong.

    252. jason says:

      Good analysis RuRu. Both the pros and cons are on the money, the only “con” I don’t really worry about is the D advantage in ballot requests.

      I agree that Trump needs a big “shy vote” to win just like he did last time.

      I would hope a lot of people who don’t agree with defunding the police and crazy sh-t like that will make their feelings known at the ballot box.

      Times have changed, even 10 years ago a party that ran on defunding the police would have been slaughtered at the polls.

      The fact this idea is palatable to people who are not at the far radical left of the political spectrum is a measure on how big the impact of decades of left wing academia has been on the population.

    253. jason says:

      This is Proud Boys Central”

      All the A-holes get points this morning, you lucky bastards.

    254. Marv says:

      hugh,

      Trump is seeking to expand his Rust Belt rural vote as well as increase his support among minority group males. Alpha male behavior appeals to them. Here in So FL, his appeal to Hispanic males is measurable.

      I take all of your points, but I will add that the townhall format in the next debate will give Trump the opportunity to appear more measured and rational. Recall the ABC Townhall with
      Stephanopoulos. I expect that Trump will conduct himself in a similar fashion, which will assuage the concerns of GOP women and persuadable independents.

    255. dblaikie says:

      I believe last Sunday’s numbers skewed the Trump/Biden poll. In fact the disparity between the approval poll and the matchup poll is that weekend numbers have a negative pull on Trump.

    256. jason says:

      Wow, NBC news no less

      TRUMP WINNING THE VOTER REGISTRATION AGAINST BIDEN IN KEY STATES.

      https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/trump-s-winning-voter-registration-battle-against-biden-key-states-n1241674

    257. Phil says:

      Oh,, there is no doubt the effect of the Sunday numbers.

    258. jason says:

      Maybe these people will show up. Hope springs eternal.

      “The Trump campaign is well aware of the opportunity it has to expand its core demographic base through registration and mobilization: in 2016, there were 2.4 million eligible whites without college degrees who didn’t vote in Pennsylvania; 2.2 million in Florida, 1.6 million in Michigan and 872,000 in Wisconsin, according to estimates compiled by the Cook Political Report.”

    259. jason says:

      If just 20% of these people showed up Trump would win easily considering how well he did among non-college whites in 2016.

    260. MrVito says:

      There again… all of Hughs friend will sill vote for Trump, but thought Biden was lost, would have hanged himself, and came off bad.

      So did everyone else.

      Trump showed Joe is not the man people remember who knocked around Ryan in the debate. He is not capable of standing up to anyone let alone his radical base or China or Iran.

    261. jason says:

      IHME does have some nutty projections.

      For India they project 530000 deaths by Jan 1.

      However, we are in October and India has 98000 deaths so far.

      To reach 530000 you need about 5000 deaths a day starting today. Yesterday there were 1100 deaths.

    262. MrVito says:

      Was it the right strategy? We’ll see. But Trumps first responses went normally. When Biden began interrupting and it became clear Wallace was going to be a debater, he decided to change course.

      He was not going to get rolled like Paul Ryan.

    263. MrVito says:

      And by the way, Hughs friends may have turned off after 15 minutes, but the ratings showed everyone else kept watching.

    264. Marv says:

      What happened Sunday night in RAS was an apparent ‘outlier’. What is happening now is ‘regression to the mean’. At least that’s what it’s called amongst pollsters and professional statisticians.

    265. jason says:

      I didn’t watch the debate.

      The general consensus from the left is that it was a disaster for Trump, from the middle that it was a wasted opportunity, and for the right that it was just Trump being Trump, move on.

      In any event, we live in a short news cycle. The VP debate is in less than a week. In a perfect world Trump would have put Biden away. But it didn’t happen and there are still 3 debates to go.

      The MSM has called Trump finished about what, 20 times since 2016? Hopefully he has at least one more comeback in him.

    266. MrVito says:

      Another way at looking at it.

      The challengers goal in the debate is to show they can fill the presidential role as an acceptable alternative. Did Biden do that? We’ll see. The panels seemed to indicate a no on that.

    267. MrVito says:

      The left indicated it was such a disaster for Trump that they want to change the rules or have no more debates.

      Wink wink

    268. jason says:

      If I am right and this is an election on the system of government, Trump’s debate performance wouldn’t really matter.

      If you are against defunding the police and think rioters and looters need to go to jail, or that BLM is a Marxist organization, you will vote for Trump no matter what he says in a debate.

      If the people that think this is a referendum on Trump are right, then it would, assuming people were really “turned off”.

    269. Scooterboy says:

      Gallup says Trumps approval has shot up to 46% from 42% and 56% expect Trump to win the election while only 40% think Biden will win.

    270. jason says:

      Also, Trump is a known quantity. He has been President for 4 years.

      Remember how in 2016 he couldn’t be President because he would start a nuclear war?

    271. MrVito says:

      MSNBC wants what’s best for the GOP
      Wink wink

      Tom Elliott
      @tomselliott
      · 35m
      MSNBC’s @FrankFigliuzzi1 proposes creating a “bipartisan commission” to vet presidential candidates to prevent another Trump: “We got this wrong, and this can’t happen again.”

    272. Scooterboy says:

      Hmnnn….

      Duluth, Minnesota newspaper endorses Republican Jason Lewis for Senate. @LewisForMN

    273. JeffP says:

      263

      Nice to see NBC taking note of what others are pointing out in social media. LOL…The huge enthusiasm gap is being played out in Trump ground game with a huge team of volunteers in key states adding new voters for Trump.. This could nullify any ballot harvesting operation and then some.

      I also think the ACB nomination has left some Dems feeling defeated to some degree. Sure it will motivate the angry base crazies but I think leave other emotionally weak snowflakes feeling discouraged and apathetic…I have seen that happening on social media in both ways.

    274. jason says:

      A young lady from the Trump campaign knocked on my door last week. It was encouraging.

      Very polite, asked me who I was voting for and how I intended to vote.

      Marked it down and moved on.

    275. Tina says:

      I think the fault lies with Wallace,

      Once China Biden mumbles and was not coherent, he interferred.

      Wallace also needed to have shorter questions and enforce time,

      He failed.

      He made Candy Crowley 2012 seem competent in comparison

    276. John says:

      Regarding the rebound in the Ras poll….it centers around the three days after naming Amy Coney Barrett (Washington Examiner).
      Or exactly what I said in an earlier blog.
      You’re welcome.

    277. JeffP says:

      Some good news today on stopping the AOC and the squad takeover of the USA!

      My wife was saying the same thing as Nolte…she went to bed about half way through…saying Trump learned quickly he was being ganged up on and had to get his points across regardless. She slept…as I fumed at Wallace.

    278. OHIO Joe says:

      It is too soon Marv, to tell how good the Buckeyes will do this year, but it should be a relatively decent seasons.

    279. MrVito says:

      Good morning… Thursday morning

      Florida man arrested after allegedly hitting deputy in face with a Bible: The suspect allegedly shouted ‘I condemn you,’ authorities said

    280. jason says:

      I had never heard about Proud Boys, I probably would have thought it a gay organization.

      But as it turns out, their chairman is black and Hispanic and he is offended at being labeled a white supremacist by Wallace and Biden.

      https://www.theepochtimes.com/proud-boys-leader-group-will-stand-down-standby-after-trump-remarks_3520214.html

    281. Pitchaboy says:

      I watched the debate and explicitly said men of color like me will like it as we like alphas. Suburban white people will pretend disgust; but the alpha always wins elections. So they quietly vote for the alpha. Otherwise we would have had Presidents Dole, Gore, Kerry, McCain and Mitt.

    282. MrVito says:

      “Looking back, Gallup has asked Americans for their predictions in the late summer or fall of every presidential election year from 1996 through 2012, and an ABC News/Washington Post poll included a comparable question in 2016. In each of these polls, Americans accurately predicted the winner of the popular vote, though not the winner of the Electoral College. “

    283. Robbie says:

      jason says:
      October 1, 2020 at 12:21 am
      Does anyone think Haley would struggle with suburban voters who had been lifelong Republicans in places like the Atlanta suburbs, but had drifted away in 2018 and 2020 because of dislike for Trump? I just don’t see it.”

      Sorry, but “Atlanta suburbs” don’t elect a Republican president anymore.

      First you need a solid base like Trump has.

      Haley might do well in the suburbs (questionable) but is she going to carry rural PA by huge numbers like Trump did? I doubt it.

      I like Nikki Haley, don’t get me wrong, but her “coalition” would be weaker than McCain’s or Romney’s and they both lost.

      – First, I was using the Atlanta suburbs as an example about how the suburbs in general act. I was using them in the same way political analysts talked about Macomb County voters as the home of Reagan Democrats. In other words, a stand-in for the broader group.

      Second, the Republicans had a solid base in 2014 that won them their largest House majority since 1928. It was the traditional Republican coalition of evangelicals, national defense proponents, the business community, the suburbs, Independents, and an increasing vote share in the rural areas.

      I don’t for an instant think suburban voters, who have been the core of the party since the late 1970’s suddenly became liberals for life between 2014 and 2018. I don’t believe people who voted for Dole, GWB, McCain, Romney, would have supported Rubio, Kasich, or Romney again in 2016 suddenly became Bernie bros.

      The suburbs have moved away from Trump, but I have yet to see any indication they have permanently moved away from the Republican Party. And when I warned in 2017 Trump was having a negative effect on the party in the suburbs, many, if not most, in this forum said that wasn’t the case. Everything was fine. Well, then we got trashed in the suburbs in 2018 and lost 40 House seats.

      Trump was able to create a coalition that was just large enough to elect him against a corrupt and flawed opponent, but there’s not a lot of evidence that coalition was particularly durable. In fact, by the Spring of 2017, the coalition that voted for him was already fraying. We saw that in the series of special House races, especially the GA6 race, but also the special House race to replace Mulvaney in August.

      I heard repeatedly in 2018 that Trump had created a new coalition that would propel the party into the future as the worker’s party. But in 2018, that new worker’s party got 45% of the national House vote. And in 2020, the polls So FAR indicate that new coalition will produce about 45% or so of the vote.

      It’s one thing add the rural areas to the Republican coalition, but there are simply not enough rural voters to overcome the loss of the suburbs. For rural areas, it’s about culture. For the suburbs, it’s about the economy. Those can be easily tied together by a host of Republican candidates.

      But if the party embraces populism fully, then it will never be a credible threat to win. Republicans have already ceded the cities, Blacks, Hispanics, and the youth vote to Democrats. If we cede the suburbs to them as well just to gain rural votes, then the party will become a rump just like the Whigs in the 19th Century or the Republican Party of the 1930’s.

    284. Tina says:

      Proud boys are causing all the looting and rioting

      -Jebot/Wrong Wray

    285. MrVito says:

      If it had been about the economy in the suburbs in 2018, the republicans would have won there. They were winning there in the Siena polls until late. All polls showed it was about health care which was hammered by the Democrats.

    286. Chicon says:

      Haven’t heard much about draining the swamp lately (as a catchphrase).

      Will it have a role (or a roll, if you’re Messy)?

    287. Tina says:

      The jebots narrative just got complicated.

      ????? ??????
      @brian_schnee
      · 12h
      “I will go out and say that the #ProudBoys as a whole, I will say this on behalf of the entire national organization, denounce white supremacy.” – Thad, Chief of the Proud Boys Salt Lake Utah Chapter

    288. MrVito says:

      About 20% in the exit poll named the economy as the top issue. 40% said health care. The GOP lost 75-23

    289. Tina says:

      The are you better off than you were 4 years ago number is really good for trump by the way.

    290. MrVito says:

      The Proud Boys expelled any of their members that attended Charlottesville.

    291. Pitchaboy says:

      Mr. Wallace needs to apologize for trashing them.

    292. JeffP says:

      The Trump base will be Mike Pence’s if he wants it. That’s a big IF too…I was at a inner city fundraiser several years ago where Pence told my good journalist friend for the Indy Star who knew Mike personally…that wanted to come home and run for Governor and he was tired of DC politics. One my favorites Jack Kemp was standing with us too…great memory.

    293. Tina says:

      China Biden really wants out of the debates.

      onathan Karl
      @jonkarl
      ·
      13h
      The debate commission says there must be changes to enforce the rules. The Trump campaign says there can’t be changes. Bottom line: There’s a real possibility the next two scheduled presidential debates do not happen

    294. MrVito says:

      How about the candidates each get a mute button for the moderator?

    295. Marv says:

      Mr Vito,

      BLM/Antifa riots are a big deal this election season, so is the recovering US economy and declining unemployment rate. The China virus as an effective political attack on Trump has passed its sell-by date. Healthcare is the DEM fallback plan when everything else has failed and is not sufficient to attract Zoomers and Millenials, who aren’t particularly enthused about Biden in the first place.

    296. jaichind says:

      Well, since Wallace also kept on interrupting Trump (and a few times Biden) then both candidates should also have the power to mute the moderator.

    297. MrVito says:

      Each candidate is allowed to mute the other for 30 seconds Of every 2minute answer.

    298. dblaikie says:

      I think folks are missing some stuff about the first debate. First of all it is obvious that Trump believes foremost that this is going to be a base election and so the purpose in the debate was to enthusiasm jacked up for Trump’s base and to depress enthusiasm for Biden’s base. Hugh’s nine people not withstanding at the very least Trump’s base has stayed enthused. Now the question is did Biden’s race to the middle in the debate depress the Sander’s wing of the party with stuff like his disavowal of the Green New Deal? Time will tell. Second his purpose was to reveal Biden’s senility. Biden lasted the 90 minutes but he came over as very weak. Partial success. Third was to begin to rip off the veneer that Joe is a nice regular guy. Trump made some headway with that. And finally there was an extra bonus that surprised me — Trump’s brashness appealing to Hispanics. If the telemondo poll is reflective then this debate was huge.

      Finally I would like to point out that no thought that after the debate was over that any of the talking heads were going to say that Trump won. The fix was already in that Biden was going to win. But what surprised me is that the Seltzers of world are not claiming that Biden won on substance. No Biden won because Trump interrupted and made Chris Wallace mad.

      All in all, a mixed result, perhaps Trump should have let Uncle Joe talk more. But Trump is Trump. Overall not a bad debate for him.

    299. Waingro says:

      Looks liek Trafalgar is going to do semi-tracker for this Senate race? They just had James up .1 the other day.

      Stella 2020
      @stella2020woof
      ·
      2h
      Senate (Michigan)

      Peters (D) 48%
      James (R) 47%

      9/26-9/28 by Trafalgar Group (C-)
      1042 LV

    300. jaichind says:

      All this talk about having the power to mute each other reminds me of this Simpsons Episode

      https://youtu.be/VTeiPRYaXwc?t=137

    301. Bio mom says:

      I always force myself to watch the entire debates. So much happens I could miss if I tuned out. Then I would be forming my opinions from what someone else said. From past experience I know I often had the opposite opinion to what the others say.

    302. MrVito says:

      I’d still like to see an investigation into 538 and it’s effect on polling and betting markets.

    303. Waingro says:

      ” If the telemondo poll is reflective then this debate was huge.”

      That was just a random Twitter poll though, right? Or did they actively reach out to Hispanic viewers?

    304. Marv says:

      #303 Tina,

      Good! Trump wins either way. Biden backs out because Trump won’t change the already agreed upon rules, or Trump doesn’t agree to change the rules and the Debate Commission cancels the debates. Well……it’s a possibility.

    305. Robbie says:

      JeffP says:
      October 1, 2020 at 11:04 am
      The Trump base will be Mike Pence’s if he wants it. That’s a big IF too…

      – I like Mike Pence. He was early choice of mine in 2011 for the 2012 nomination before he decided not to run. It would be a tough slog, though, for him to win the nomination in 2024 if Trump loses.

      History is not kind to losing VP candidates. Quayle ran tried to run in 2000 and never got a whiff and was out almost as soon as he suggested he might run. In 1984 Mondale won the nomination after being the losing VP in 1980 and proceeded to lose 49 states.

      And if Trump does win, the road to the presidency wouldn’t be much easier for Pence. Van Buren and Bush 41 are the last two to earn a “third term”.

    306. dblaikie says:

      Typos as usual. was to get enthusiasm . . . point out that non one thought

    307. OHIO Joe says:

      “Mr. Wallace needs to apologize for trashing them.” Bingo and Mr. Biden needs to apologize to the country for failing to recognize that Anifa is an organization.

    308. MrVito says:

      It’s really funny to see MSNBC talk about making sure Trump can’t happen again when they begged him to run and tried to assist him in winning.

    309. Waingro says:

      Leftist Data for Progress has:

      Gideon: 46
      Collins 41

      and

      Greenfield: 46
      Ernst: 45

      I think that’s actually good for Ernst and Collins given the pollster.

    310. jaichind says:

      It is a twitter poll. But it was in Spanish. So perhaps it is Russian bots that that has NLP support for Spanish ?

    311. dblaikie says:

      No the telemondo poll is not scientific. Frankly I don’t believe there is any science left in poll taking except do to the model what you need to do and get the result your client wants. However even though the poll is not “scientific” it can very reflective that good things are happening to Trump with Hispanics.

    312. MrVito says:

      How about Elise Stefanik?

    313. jason says:

      NBA playoff viewership falls off the cliff

      Ben Strauss of The Athletic takes a deep dive into the television ratings for this year’s NBA conference finals. He finds that the ratings themselves took a deep dive:

      [T]hese were two of the least-watched conference finals series ever, despite featuring the league’s most famous player (LeBron James) on the league’s most famous franchise (the Lakers). It happened despite Nielsen using “Out of Home” viewership for the first time ever at the start of September, which likely goosed NBA numbers between seven and 12 percent.

      As explained here, the traditional ratings method only counted TVs in households towards the overall numbers. The “Out of Home” method also counts TVs in hospitals, airports, restaurants and offices. Naturally, this method generates better ratings.

      Strauss continues:

      Even with this welcome OOH bump, a Lakers-involved Western Conference Finals could not crack 5 million viewers in any game, averaging 4.46 million. For perspective, every one of Kobe Bryant’s 41 conference finals games cracked 5 million, including a Game 7 clincher over the Kings in 2002 that reached a staggering 23.796 million on NBC.

      For additional perspective, the 2019 conference finals, a drama-free Warriors sweep of the Trail Blazers, drew over 7 million viewers in every game and averaged 7.75 million. That’s a 40 percent viewership drop between 2019 and 2020, despite 2020 suddenly getting the benefit of having out-of-home viewers counted toward its total. As in, the fall-off is likely greater than 40 percent, we just aren’t sure by how much”

      Good.

      I hope the same happens to the NFL.

      I guess a lot more people like me “want to be praised” for not watching spoiled millionaires lecture them on race relations.

    314. jason says:

      He was early choice of mine in 2011 for the 2012 nomination before he decided not to run.”

      Translation: I will support him until he is actually on the ballot, then I will be here every day to trash him and call him a right wing zealot.

    315. MrVito says:

      Wasn’t it the other day I posted Tucker Carlson had beaten LeBron head to head in ratings?

    316. Waingro says:

      #321, I notice Trump very consistently polls very consistently in Twitter flash polls.

      Now obviously the typical reaction to this is to say these are just “bots” and “trolls” etc. overwhelming the online vote, but it could also be a sign of much higher Trump enthusiasm – -which IS reflected in the traditional, “scientific” polls.

    317. Waingro says:

      #326, that should have read:

      “I notice Trump very consistently polls very high in Twitter flash polls.”

    318. WizardofCozz says:

      Just to introduce myself. I’m a Social Studies teacher and BBall coach from SW KS. I don’t for one second think that Biden will be w/in 3 of Trump in KS. I also think Marshall will win, but he’s not the strongest candidate, you have to understand KS. Their are really like 3 parties. The two wings of the Republican Party and then Democrat. Marshall is not popular with large swaths of the right, which probably makes up 40-42% of Kansas, then you have another 30-35% which are moderates, and the leftovers are democrats. None of my friends or family voted for Marshall. But all but a close friend will hold their nose and vote for him in the General Election as anything is better than Bollier. My friend will probably write someone in. Not that KS is important nationally but I feel I have a good read of the state.

    319. Tina says:

      Political Polls
      @Politics_Polls
      · 3m
      IOWA
      Trump 47% (+3)
      Biden 44%
      Jorgensen 1%
      Hawkins 1%
      .
      Head-2-Head:
      Trump 50% (+5)
      Biden 45%

      @DataProgress/@IndivisibleTeam (D), LV, 9/23-28
      https://filesforprogress.org/memos/2020-senate-project/week-2/dfp_psp_IA_Senate_week2.pdf

    320. MrVito says:

      328 Was Orman really ever even close to beating Roberts or was that the same effect? We figured it was.

    321. MrVito says:

      Iowa is going to vote left of Ohio this year.. so that looks good.

    322. jaichind says:

      The Gallup poll on who will win has Trump winning by a similar margin as Obama in 2012 and Bush in 2004.

    323. MrVito says:

      I Also doubt Ernst will lose if Trump wins Iowa by 3-5.

    324. Tina says:

      Donald J. Trump
      @realDonaldTrump
      ·
      16m
      I won the debate big, based on compilation of polls etc. Thank y

    325. WizardofCozz says:

      Orman was never going to beat Roberts, but Roberts had spend so long in Washington that he was perceived, and possibly rightly so, as out of touch with local Kansans. He rarely if ever came back to the state for anything but to campaign, and that probably rubbed many people the wrong way.

    326. MrVito says:

      332 Base elections.

    327. MrVito says:

      Welcome to posting, Cozz.

    328. Waingro says:

      #328, welcome to HHR, Wizard!

    329. MrVito says:

      Former Twitter CEO

      dick costolo
      @dickc
      · 14h
      Replying to @pt @Jason and @coinbase
      Me-first capitalists who think you can separate society from business are going to be the first people lined up against the wall and shot in the revolution. I’ll happily provide video commentary.

    330. Waingro says:

      “jaichind says:
      October 1, 2020 at 11:31 am
      The Gallup poll on who will win has Trump winning by a similar margin as Obama in 2012 and Bush in 2004.”

      Link??

    331. Waingro says:

      nevermind. I found a link to the Gallup poll. Interesting stuff in there:

      https://news.gallup.com/poll/321347/trump-pre-debate-job-approval-highest-may.aspx

    332. Waingro says:

      “Regardless of whom they personally support, 56% of Americans expect Trump to prevail over Biden in the November election, while 40% think Biden will win. Although majorities of partisans think their party’s candidate will win, Republicans are more likely to believe Trump will win (90%) than Democrats are to think Biden will (73%). Fifty-six percent of independents predict that Trump will win.”

    333. Tina says:

      Lid

      Pat Ward
      @WardDPatrick
      · 25m
      The Biden campaign officially called a lid for today at 11:03a ET for in person events. Biden will participate in a virtual fundraiser this afternoon.

    334. MrVito says:

      He’s in a good mood folks…

      “On Wednesday, President Trump took a very brief break from tweeting about Tuesday night’s debate (and retweeting other peoples’ opinions about the debate, and tweeting about James Comey) to comment on a 2018 study that suggested a chemical found in McDonald’s fries could prevent hair loss.

      “No wonder I didn’t lose my hair!” wrote Trump, who retweeted a link to an ABC7 article about the study first shared by former White House press secretary Ari Fleischer in 2018.“

    335. jason says:

      he suburbs have moved away from Trump, but I have yet to see any indication they have permanently moved away from the Republican Party.”

      Zzzzzz… garbage.

      They have not moved away from Trump, that is an MSM talking point. That is simplistic drivel.

      What has happened is the left wing academia has for decades promoted socialism as the best system, and that merit and competition and free enterprise are bad.

      Today the suburbs have a lot of young professionals that are “graduates” of this educational system.

      They have moved towards finding the nanny state attractive. They want free drugs, free medical care, free childcare, paid leaves, etc that the nanny state is offering them.

      The problem here is that like Bunu, Robbie has this idiotic notion that he somehow represents the Republican Party. He does not. The “moderate” suburban Republican is a dinosaur and they are never going to decide any elections again.

      The problem for Republicans is the general ideological change from believing in free enterprise to believing in a nanny state. Obviously this is not uniform and true everywhere, but that is the undeniable trend.

      Besides, if the suburbs were so important and so Republican, McCain and Romney would have won. The fact is these changes have been happening since at least 2008.

      Trump represents the last hope for Republicans to be relevant. Should he lose, they will be locked out of power, and the suburbs won’t save them. If he wins, he might be able to shape the courts and stem the socialist tide and keep the voting system honest enough to ensure Rs are relevant in 2022 and 2024.

    336. Waingro says:

      The most eye glaring data point about that Gallup poll is that indies by 56(!) predict Trump will win. This goes right to Baris’ Trump “shy” voter overall theory from what he’s been seeing.

      Also Trump is at 46% approval, which was his exact PV number in 2016.

    337. dblaikie says:

      Waingro I believe that the reason why Trump does so much better in these “twitter” polls is due to enthusiasm and not bots. Connect the dots and you see all thousands going to a rally phoning up c-span without any problem. And if enthusiasm is that strong in the Hispanic community that speaks loudly — especially if this is going to be a base election. If that is true than enthusiasm is huge factor in determining who will win.

    338. Country Dick Montana says:

      “Trump represents the last hope for Republicans to be relevant. Should he lose, they will be locked out of power, and the suburbs won’t save them. If he wins, he might be able to shape the courts and stem the socialist tide and keep the voting system honest enough to ensure Rs are relevant in 2022 and 2024.”

      I might add that if he loses, his base may feel betrayed by “the Establishment” and simply choose not to vote again either R or D. They will simply drop out of the system.

    339. MrVito says:

      “ Besides, if the suburbs were so important and so Republican, McCain and Romney would have won. The fact is these changes have been happening since at least 2008.“

      The autopsy concluded that theGOP would need to win the whites that Romney left on the table or immediately make inroads with minorities.

      The Clinton mistake was to try to block the second option and underestimate the first. The “Trump strategy,” if there is one, was to note that the first option overlapped with the second as “working class”.

    340. WizardofCozz says:

      I think this election will come down to 3 groups. Suburban Women, African Americans, and Hispanics. I think Trump will dominate with working class and whites and rural votes. If he can get 12-13% of the Black vote and 33-35% of the Hispanic vote, and that will make up for any loss in suburban women, and if he can just not hemorrhage suburban women he will come out on top. Having said all that, in reality this race will probably come down to just a couple of states. I think he wins Florida, NC, and Ohio, so really PA and the Upper Midwest will decide this election.

    341. Gordon Allen says:

      Waingro: that has been a relentlessly consistent finding in virtually every poll. It might not mean everything,but it” certainly doesn’t mean nothing either”

    342. jason says:

      The fastest growing areas in the US are the exurbs, although “small towns” are growing too.

      The great millenial urban revival, as it was called, is waning.

      The exurbs provide the best opportunity for the GOP, a lot of these people are trying to escape the problems of the cities and suburbs, many run by Democrats.

      But if the GOP is to survive, it will have to appeal to a lot more people than suburban women. It needs to make real inroads into Hispanics, Asians, and other minorities.

    343. dblaikie says:

      I have no trouble with the Gallup organization. I have said that over and over again here. However I do have big problems with political polls of just adults. That is especially true at this point in the election cycle.

      However I do appreciate Gallup’s admission that they can’t honestly and accurately screen for likely voters. When an organization like Gallup admits that it speaks volumes about the state of polling in our country.

    344. MrVito says:

      I would wager Gallup is one of the few polling institutions people still trust.

    345. dblaikie says:

      I wonder what the wonder boys at IMHE model are going to do once 100000000 doses of vaccine are given out in November. That should be interesting.

    346. MrVito says:

      As Gallup noted, the expectation question has been correct in deciding the popular vote, but not necessarily the electoral college. Of course, I don’t see how Trump could win the popular vote and not the EC.

    347. Waingro says:

      #352, Gordon: yup. However, I’m not sure I’ve seen it as overwhelming in Trump’s favor as this Gallup poll.

    348. Robbie says:

      Jason seems to think if he blames everything on “socialism” that makes it true.

      The suburbs don’t like Trump. That’s where Republicans were wiped out in 2018 and it’s where Republicans repeatedly say Trump is struggling with voters in 2020.

      And, yes, the suburbs are important because they have been the base of the party since the 1970’s. If they are lost to Democrats just as we’ve lost the cities, Blacks, Hispanics, and the youth vote, then the party will have lost its power center.

      We cannot trade the suburbs for the rural areas and actually hope to win races or control the House. There are simply not enough people who live in those areas to counter the suburbs.

      Trump does not represent the last hope for Republicans to be relevant. That is absolutely stupid. That idea is little more than some dumb talking point taken from the screeds we can find at RedState or the Federalist.

      If Trump loses, the party will regroup just as Democrats did after 2016, just as Republicans did after 2008, and just as Republicans did after 1992.

      The idea the Republican Party’s fate is dependent on someone who really doesn’t care about the party is just laughable. There are a host of people (Haley, Pence, DeSantis, Hawley, Scott, etc.) who can help lead the party and help reclaim whatever ground may be lost in 2020 (should ground be lost).

    349. MrVito says:

      Sen. Feinstein, Dems formally ask for delay in Amy Coney Barrett confirmation

      Duh! They will be formally told to pound sand.

    350. Tina says:

      Al Smith dinner tonight.

      E invites to China Biden and trump.

    351. Tina says:

      They should be told that they are speeding it up.

    352. jason says:

      I might add that if he loses, his base may feel betrayed by “the Establishment” and simply choose not to vote again either R or D. They will simply drop out of the system.”

      Certainly will be an attractive option for me, although I don’t consider myself Trump’s “base”. I already stopped voting in R primaries because it is clear a strong majority of Rs don’t share my views. It is a different party from the one that attracted me when I arrived in the US. And contrary to Robbie’s wishful thinking, it is not changing back.

      If a majority of people want socialism, there is no coming back from that, so my views will be irrelevant. Nothing is forever, the US has had a good run with free enterprise, maybe it is over. Fact of life, things change.

      Remember the causes people used to argue about here, gays in the military, gay marriage, etc. There were people here that swore these things could be reversed. I said forget it, water under the bridge, move on.

      I think it will be same with the system of government.

    353. WizardofCozz says:

      I agree with Jason. We are at the precipice in a major Cultural and Political fight, and if democrats win the Presidency and the Senate they will enact policies that their is no coming back from.

    354. jason says:

      The suburbs don’t like Trump. That’s where Republicans were wiped out in 2018 and it’s where Republicans repeatedly say Trump is struggling with voters in 2020.”

      Did they like McCain and Romney?

      Why did they lose then.

      This is regurgitated MSM talking points.

      And if Trump loses, there will be no “regrouping”, that is BS.

      In any event, the Dems will make enough changes in voting laws to ensure any fictional regrouping will fail.

    355. jason says:

      “We are at the precipice in a major Cultural and Political fight, and if democrats win the Presidency and the Senate they will enact policies that their is no coming back from.”

      Exactly.

      Saying this is about “people not liking Trump” is simplistic drivel and the upmost in intellectual dishonesty.

    356. MrVito says:

      365 LOL.

      Exactly right! They are done getting rolled with BS.

    357. Robbie says:

      And before anyone says “What about Virginia?” as evidence the suburbs are a lost cause and we need a new coalition, let’s not forget what got Republicans in the mess they are experiencing in the state.

      The Republican Party in Virginia imploded. In 2013, the party blew an easy layup win by nominating Ken Cuccinelli for governor. He couldn’t even capitalize on the Obamacare website fiasco. In 2017, poor Ed Gillispie was forced to run a campaign on Confederate War monuments and lost to a wannabe Klansman. And then in 2018, the party nominated a white nationalist sympathizer Corey Stewart over a war veteran.

      Candidates matter. Some blow your party up. Others bring your party together. In Virginia, the party chose to blow itself up and become irrelevant. I don’t believe the national party is going to do that. Nor do I believe becoming a rural based party is the way to go. Virginia is the best evidence of that.

    358. jason says:

      And, yes, the suburbs are important because they have been the base of the party since the 1970’s.”

      Times change.

      The suburbs are no longer the base of the party. And it has nothing to do with Trump, these changes have been happening as far back as 2008.

    359. Tina says:

      The muh white supremacisf is just going to be directed at Biden.

      Why?

      He spoke at kkk funeral.

      Just warning the jebots.

    360. Robbie says:

      jason says:
      October 1, 2020 at 12:05 pm
      The suburbs don’t like Trump. That’s where Republicans were wiped out in 2018 and it’s where Republicans repeatedly say Trump is struggling with voters in 2020.”

      Did they like McCain and Romney?

      Why did they lose then.

      – The suburbs voted for both, but let’s be serious here.

      McCain lost in 2008 because he was an old man running against the first black nominee. And oh by the way, the economy cratered after Lehman collapsed, the war in Iraq was disaster, and Palin turned into a big liability.

      As for Romney, the enthusiasm for Obama among minority voters and the youth vote was just too much to overcome. He should have been more competitive, but he lacked the candidate skills necessary.

    361. Robbie says:

      jason says:
      October 1, 2020 at 12:10 pm
      And, yes, the suburbs are important because they have been the base of the party since the 1970’s.”

      Times change.

      The suburbs are no longer the base of the party. And it has nothing to do with Trump, these changes have been happening as far back as 2008.

      – They were definitely the base of the party in 2014 and they even voted for Trump in 2016.

      If you actually think the party can win going forward as a rural based party that barely makes an appeal to the cities, suburbs, youth vote, Blacks, and Hispancis, then you’re consigning the party to becoming the Whigs.

      And, yes, the party will regroup if it loses in 2020 because that’s what parties always do after a loss, regroup. I can only imagine wailing and gnashing of teeth that would have occurred had this forum exist in 1992. And yet, 1994 was a blowout year from coast to coast.

    362. OHIO Joe says:

      “Iowa is going to vote left of Ohio this year.. so that looks good.” As an Ohioan, I hope that is the case, but I am a bit nervous about some of the Suburbs in my state.

    363. jason says:

      Virginia is the best evidence of that.”

      BS. More simplistic and dishonest drivel.

      The problem with VA has nothing to do with one candidate or another.

      The problem is exactly what I explained above.

      As NOVA grew and became the most populous part of the state, these new voters are ideologically different from the VA voters that decided elections in the past.

      These are government workers and younger professionals product of the educational system I described.

      No Republican is going to win in NOVA in the future. And that has nothing to do with who the candidate is. They won’t win because this voting block is very liberal.

      Ignoring the demographic and ideological changes in VA and blaming VA losses on Trump is very stupid.

      Romney, McCain and Trump lost VA by roughly the same margin, all of them.

      That tells you everything.

    364. MrVito says:

      378 Look what they did to McDonnell.

    365. OHIO Joe says:

      “378 Look what they did to McDonnell.” It was a bloody shame what they did to him.

    366. Robbie says:

      According to the 2014 NBC exist polls:

      Suburbs
      Republican 55%
      Democrat 43%

      Rural
      Republican 59%
      Democrat 38%

      The idea the suburbs were already moving away is not correct and the idea Trump brought rural America into the fold for the party is wrong as well.

    367. Robbie says:

      When you make no effort to win over a voting group, it’s not a surprise when the voting group goes against you.

    368. Tina says:

      But now they got Jebot approved, Governor Blackface.

    369. jason says:

      And, yes, the party will regroup if it loses in 2020 because that’s what parties always do after a loss, regroup. I can only imagine wailing and gnashing of teeth that would have occurred had this forum exist in 1992. And yet, 1994 was a blowout year from coast to coast.”

      You are living in the past, 2022 is not 1994.

      The institutional changes made by the Dems if they control all 3 branches will be mind boggling.

      Plus, the suburbs are shifted ideologically.

      The suburbs are not the base of the party anymore, and never will be.

      The base of the party is exburbs and rural.

      Whether this is enough to win elections or not is a different question. But that is a fact.

      I have always defended a bigger tent for the R party. But the suburbs are rife with liberals who will never vote Republican. They are not the target audience to win elections.

    370. Tina says:

      The presstitutes will soon meltdown.

      Donald Trump Jr.
      @DonaldJTrumpJr
      ·
      9m
      Will the next debate moderator ask Biden about his close friend & KKK Exalted Cyclops, Robert Byrd?

      Will he be asked what he meant when he said he didn’t want his kids growing up in a “racial jungle?”

      No wonder both David Duke & Richard Spencer have endorsed Joe for President!

    371. Country Dick Montana says:

      “If you actually think the party can win going forward as a rural based party that barely makes an appeal to the cities, suburbs, youth vote, Blacks, and Hispancis, then you’re consigning the party to becoming the Whigs.”

      How does the GOP appeal to cities?

      How does the GOP appeal to suburbs?

      How does the GOP appeal to youth?

      How does the GOP appeal to Blacks?

      How does the GOP appeal to Hispanics?

      I will answer for Blacks and Hispanics, that is jobs and upward mobility. Something they had before Covid.

      What policies should the GOP put forward to appeal to the others?

    372. jason says:

      The idea the suburbs were already moving away is not correct”

      BS.

      Why did McCain and Romney lose if they were so strong in the suburbs?

      Obama won the suburbs in 2008 50-47. The changes were already ongoing.

    373. MrVito says:

      386 and school choice!

    374. Transparent Dem Troll says:

      Trump Job Approval

      Morning Consult

      Sept 24-27: 42/55 -13
      Sept 22-28: 41/53 -12
      Sept 23-29: 42/53 -11
      Sept 30: 44/54 -10

      Going back to the troll replacement pool to see who’s available.

    375. jason says:

      nd the idea Trump brought rural America into the fold for the party is wrong as well.”

      NPR calls you a liar.

      https://www.npr.org/2016/11/15/502032052/lots-of-people-voted-for-obama-and-trump-heres-where-in-3-charts

    376. Tina says:

      Eddie Zipperer
      @EddieZipperer
      In the 2012 VP debate, Biden interrupted Paul Ryan 82 times, made faces the entire time, and dropped a steady stream of insults on Ryan. The media LOVED it.

      In 2020, he came out and tried to use the same tactic on Trump.

      https://twitter.com/EddieZipperer/status/1311620496224591872

    377. Robbie says:

      The party was done after 2008 and 2012 as well. I read it here repeatedly. So what happened in 2010 and 2014? For that matter, what happened in 2016?

    378. jason says:

      Hey TDT, can you do something about the troll quality?

      Dump and Gatortroll are the dumbest trolls we have ever had.

    379. MrVito says:

      2014….

      Paging Obamacare!

      Ya’ll effed up!

    380. OHIO Joe says:

      At the risk of sounding like a racist or sexist, Shhhhhhh, I am hopeful that for every Woke White suburban woman we lose, we gain at least one Hispanic and one African American. Sound like a fair trade??

    381. MrVito says:

      You handed health care back to the Democrats in 2018. Guess which people voted in 2018 on the issue of health care?

    382. Robbie says:

      Country Dick Montana says:
      October 1, 2020 at 12:28 pm
      “If you actually think the party can win going forward as a rural based party that barely makes an appeal to the cities, suburbs, youth vote, Blacks, and Hispancis, then you’re consigning the party to becoming the Whigs.”

      How does the GOP appeal to cities?

      How does the GOP appeal to suburbs?

      How does the GOP appeal to youth?

      How does the GOP appeal to Blacks?

      How does the GOP appeal to Hispanics?

      – For starters, they could actually show up to many of those places. Barry Goldwater was asked in 1968 why he wasn’t campaigning in the cities. He said because they’re aren’t any votes there.

      It’s one thing to go where you believe you can turn out your vote best in a campaign season, but what about the other three years? GWB, love him or hate, at least made an effort in his first term and it paid some dividends because he got the highest share of the Hispanic vote for a Republican in a long time. And his 2004 race remains the only time a Republican has won the popular vote since 1988.

    383. jason says:

      The party was done after 2008 and 2012 as well. ”

      Times have changed.

      The suburbs are no longer the “base of R party”, pretending they are changes nothing.

      And the institutional changes the Dems will promoted if they get control are nothing like 2010 and 2014.

      You will have same day voting registration, no IDs required, universal mail in voting, mandatory voting enrollment for certain services, etc. Essentially there will be no control on who votes.

      This is not 2014.

    384. MrVito says:

      The GOP held the ball on Obamacare in 2010, 2012, 2014, AND 2016.

    385. MrVito says:

      Those women are not coming back…. the GOP is the party trying to take away health care and preexisting conditions.

      If you want to win them back, drop the lawsuit and tell them the radical left will go public option. Inundate the suburbs.

    386. Country Dick Montana says:

      397 – I agree that showing up would be a start. I can tell you that there are a lot of working class urban AA and Hispanic men who like Trump and are open to a GOP message. Trump would be the one white GOP politician who could go in there and open it up.

      Still, we need policies to appeal to those groups. So what policies can we have to get the youth, suburbs and cities.

      Sounds like the same request I have made to another poster. Politics is more than optics.

    387. MrVito says:

      Hey Phil, what ads did they run in those Texas burbs in 2018?

    388. Tina says:

      Kayleigh just tweeted a response to Faux Fox Roberts meltdown. She is destroying all presstitutes today.

      https://twitter.com/PressSec/status/1311707130160873472

    389. Tina says:

      I did not realize that Faux Fox is married to Abc reporter, Krya Phillips.

      Seems like spouse reporters are fighting each other.

    390. jaichind says:

      Too bad Gallup does not have the “Who will win” question for 1992. One way to read the Gallup results on “who will win” is that it predicts the popular vote winner. Another way to read it is “the population always picks the ruling party unless the situation is very bad like 2008” Having 1992 data would be nice to figure out which. Based on my memories of 1992 is that everyone expected Clinton to win so most likely the first hypothesis is true but it would be nice to have data.

    391. Tina says:

      Too much beat down of the fake news today.

      See new Tweets
      Conversation

      Kayleigh McEnany
      @PressSec

      US government account
      .
      @johnrobertsFox
      I would refer you to your wife’s reporting from 21 hours ago… accurate reporting I cited in the White House Press Briefing.

    392. MrVito says:

      https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nevadas-jacky-rosen-shows-latest-democratic-push-for-health-care-in-2018-with-new-ad-buy/

      Check out this 2018 ad fromRosen against Heller.

      It is EVERYTHING I said. And they did this everywhere in the burbs.

    393. jason says:

      And another message for Robbie.’

      If he thinks Trump’s exburb and rural base is going back into a “coalition” with the dinosaur suburban Rs, that is not going to happen either.

    394. MrVito says:

      “ Nevertheless, health care appears to be a key voting issue for voters in the midterm elections. A CBS News poll found last month that three in four voters say a candidate must agree with them on health care in order to get their vote in 2018. “

      LOL Thumbs Down!

      MrVito says:
      September 30, 2020 at 11:39 pm
      As a reminder, in 2018 gallup had health care as the number one issue. The Dems were playing ad after ad on health care in the squishy suburban areas.

      In the exit poll, 41% named health care as the top issue, and the Dems won 75-23% on it.

    395. Country Dick Montana says:

      How about this to appeal to the youth vote:

      The government took over the college loans in what 2009, 2010? The entities who have really made out are the colleges themselves, so we spread the wealth.

      Place a 90% tax on all endowments and redistribute as rebates on all loans, stating with those who have actually paid theirs off.

      Then get out of the loan business, give it back to the privates sector and allow bankruptcies to erase then just as they would any other debt. You won’t be seeing a whole lot of loans for Ethnic and Gender studies. Colleges will also be forced to concentrate on the most profitable majors (STEM and business.)

    396. Tina says:

      More of this please.

      Mediaite
      @Mediaite
      Former FBI Official Proposes ‘Bipartisan Commission’ to Approve Presidential Candidates, Block Future Trump: ‘This Can’t Happen Again’

    397. Tina says:

      Catholic bashing is back by the drats

      Senate Republican Communications Center
      @SRCC
      · 4m
      SCHUMER TWO DAYS AGO: “Not a single Democrat will make these attacks or make personal religious beliefs an issue.”

      HIRONO YESTERDAY: Not sure “whether her closely held [religious] views can be separated from her ability to make objective, fair decisions”

    398. MrVito says:

      Isn’t it literally unconstitutional to question ACB on her faith from the standpoint of ‘No religious test’?

    399. PresidentPaul! says:

      I warned you all she was evil and Trump’s worst appointment but no one believed me.

      CIA Director Haspel Personally Blocking Declassification Of Russiagate Documents

      “Federalist” co-founder Sean Davis reports that CIA Director Gina Haspel is personally blocking the release of documents that will show “what actually happened” with Russiagate.

      “This isn’t just a scandal about Democrat projection, this is a scandal about what was a coup planned against the incoming administration at the highest levels and I can report here tonight that these declassifications that have come out,” Davis told FOX News host Tucker Carlson on Wednesday. “Those weren’t easy to get out and there are far more waiting to get out.”

    400. PresidentPaul! says:

      btw I looked at predictit markets after the debate last night.

      Both Montana and Iowa shifted to >50% for the democrat.

      And if that happens there is likely enough of a supermajority to stack courts, do away with filibuster, do MMT etc etc etc.

    401. jaichind says:

      As for rural and suburban shifts
      GOP vote share (Rural) (2006-2010-2014-2018)
      50-61-59-56

      GOP vote share (Suburban) (2006-2010-2014-2018)
      48-55-55-49

      GOP vote share (Urban) (2006-2010-2014-2018)
      37-41-42-32

      The big shift it seems really took place in 2010 although the urban -> rural drift continued after that

    402. Tina says:

      Bubu.

      Even if she is blocking it, it does not matter.

      The document can be released either by Ratcliffe, Barr Stool, or trump.

    403. Phil says:

      408

      Exactly what Barnes said. It’s why he was adamantly against Barrett as the SC nominee.

      They will hit health care hard in the hearings and are gearing up for it as we speak.

      Barnes says it will hurt Trump. The question is how much. Thing is it was so unnecessary. Lagoa was the pick.

      Stupid. Trump no longer has enough if any populist types around him. The ones he listened to in order to get elected in 2016. He listened to the establishment types regarding this pick – the same establishment Paul Ryan types that got us crushed in the suburbs in 2018 over the healthcare issue.

      Stupid. Just plain stupid.

    404. Scooterboy says:

      The next debate moderator is a former Joe Biden intern. How do you think that’s going to go?

      Why do Republicans continue to agree to this crap?

    405. PresidentPaul! says:

      If I were Trump I probably would not agree to the silencing rules of the debate\cutting the mic.

      Seems insulting to me.

    406. MrVito says:

      “ The next debate moderator is a former Joe Biden intern.”

      It’s the first thing he should mention at the debate then.

    407. Tina says:

      It would seem like the debate commission would consider thst a conflict of interest and get a new moderator.

    408. PresidentPaul! says:

      Do you really want Joe Biden’s intern hitting the silence button and reprimanding the President of the United States in the next debate while Joe is calling him a clown, a racist, and liar as he did in the last debate.

      The fault lies on Trump for a poor performance with zero preparation, but agreeing to these silencing rules seems a farce to me as well.

    409. Tina says:

      Megan Mineiro
      @MMineiro_CNS
      ·
      44m
      NEW: federal judge rules the Justice Department “sufficiently alleges that Bolton breached his nondisclosure obligations” to allow the case to proceed, denying the former national security adviser’s motion to dismiss. https://ecf.dcd.uscourts.gov/cgi-bin/show_public_doc?2020cv1580-57

    410. jason says:

      Phil, I preferred Lagoa too because I figured the Dems would look bad attacking a Latina.

      But let’s get real, the Dems were going to try to destroy either one.

      And the ACA was never that popular, at one time is way way under water, now the MSM polls say it has majority support, but at most I think its 50/50.

      All ACB has to say, no I am not in favor of removing pre-conditions from insurance coverage and 90% of the Dems argument will be moot.

    411. PresidentPaul! says:

      If Barrett can actually get confirmed, then I prefer barrett because so many of these judges go rogue.

      That’s assuming she can actually get confirmed though. It’s hard to know what goes on behind the scenes with Collins, etc.

    412. MrVito says:

      “ All ACB has to say, no I am not in favor of removing pre-conditions from insurance coverage and 90% of the Dems argument will be moot.”

      She is not supposed to prejudge cases that may come before SCOTUS.

    413. MrVito says:

      Drop the lawsuit. The GOP lost.

    414. MrVito says:

      Trump could say that if he is president and ACA is declared unconstitutional, he will not enforce unless there is a replacement…

      But who would believe the GOP now?

    415. jason says:

      Wow, Bolton really got cut a new one…

      “Count One in the government’s complaint alleges that Bolton breached his prepublication review obligations. Having found that the government alleges sufficient facts to support its claim that Bolton violated these obligations in the SCI agreements and classified information agreement, the Court will not dismiss Count One. Count Two in the government’s complaint alleges that Bolton breached his nondisclosure obligations. Having found that the government alleges sufficient facts to support its claim that Bolton violated these obligations in the classified information agreement, the Co.urt will not dismiss Count Two. Count Three in the government’s complaint alleges that the government is entitled to a constructive trust over Bolton’s royalties as a result of the conduct that underlies Counts One and Two. Having declined to dismiss the substantive claims in Counts One and Two, the Court will not dismiss the remedial claim in Count Three. Therefore, the Court will deny the motion to dismiss by separate order. “

    416. MrVito says:

      The winning hand is to hit hard that the left will take it all away and institute the public option.

    417. jason says:

      The government wants his royalties…

      LOL

    418. PresidentPaul! says:

      I’m more concerned about the senate right now then Trump although it seems to be the narrative about Trump that is driving some of these senate races towards the dems.

      Especially Iowa and Montana that have shifted to the dems.

    419. jason says:

      All ACB has to say, no I am not in favor of removing pre-conditions from insurance coverage and 90% of the Dems argument will be moot.”

      She is not supposed to prejudge cases that may come before SCOTUS.”

      It is not pre-judging. It is saying that her professed opposition to ACA is not for that reason.

    420. Tina says:

      Andrew Wisearse needs to be indicted ASAP for obstruction.

      https://twitter.com/willchamberlain/status/1311714767959138308

    421. jason says:

      btw I looked at predictit markets after the debate last night.

      Both Montana and Iowa shifted to >50% for the democrat.

      And if that happens there is likely enough of a supermajority to stack courts, do away with filibuster, do MMT etc etc etc.”

      IA did shift, showing 55% for the Dem.

      But MT is showing 61% for Daines.

    422. jason says:

      If Trump wins, Rs will hold the senate.

      If he loses, they might lose the senate.

      So the best way is to follow Robbie’s advice, the best way to ensure an R senate is for Trump to win.

    423. MrVito says:

      “her professed opposition to ACA”

      That is literally prejudging the case.

      “is not for that reason.”

      I will take away your health care, but not because I’m mean…

      Does not take any argument away.

    424. MrVito says:

      Another option is for her to recuse from that case, which maybe she should if she has “professed opposition to ACA.”

    425. dylan says:

      419–Then why don’t the republicans ever ACTUALLY do anything substantive on health care? They don’t. . .maybe they just don’t have the energy for it but the bottom line is the GOP house could at least put forward a proposal. And the Senate could try and pass something. Give the health care voters something.

    426. MrVito says:

      Look y’all… you blew health care.

      I don’t even want you to repeal it without something else in place. Everyone knows someone close who will be affected.

    427. Tina says:

      Hope this is true and may explain why the drats are going full stupid today

      Ronna McDaniel
      @GOPChairwoman
      Our data from the Duluth Rally shows
      @realDonaldTrump
      is still bringing in tons of new voters:

      60% of attendees were NOT Republican

      20.9% were Democrat

      17.2% did not vote in 2016

      8.4% have not voted in last 4 elections

      Thank you, Minnesota!
      9:03 AM · Oct 1, 2020·Sprout Social

    428. Tina says:

      She may to recuse if she came out so strongly against it.

    429. Robbie says:

      jason says:
      October 1, 2020 at 12:36 pm
      The party was done after 2008 and 2012 as well. ”

      Times have changed.

      The suburbs are no longer the “base of R party”, pretending they are changes nothing.

      And the institutional changes the Dems will promoted if they get control are nothing like 2010 and 2014.

      You will have same day voting registration, no IDs required, universal mail in voting, mandatory voting enrollment for certain services, etc. Essentially there will be no control on who votes.

      This is not 2014.

      – Many in this forum said the exact same thing on election night 2012 and the days following the 2012 election.

      It wasn’t true then and it’s not true now.

    430. Robbie says:

      jason says:
      October 1, 2020 at 12:49 pm
      And another message for Robbie.’

      If he thinks Trump’s exburb and rural base is going back into a “coalition” with the dinosaur suburban Rs, that is not going to happen either.

      – Nonsense. The rural voters were part of the party by 2014 and they had no problem pairing up with the suburbs. They’re not going to start voting for Democrats or sit on their hands because the suburbs naturally come back to the Republican Party once Trump is no longer president.

      You’ve spent too much time reading screeds at RedState or some other nonsense at the Federalist.

      There are plenty of candidates in the Republican Party who can form a large and successful coalition between the suburbs and the rural areas. Nikki Haley, as an example, can do that and so can plenty of other Republicans.

      Now, if we nominate someone like Tom Cotton in 2024, then we’ll have to turn out every rural voter there is and win by margins approaching 3-1 to have any chance.

    431. Florida Guy says:

      @Mediaite: “Former FBI Official Proposes ‘Bipartisan Commission’ to Approve Presidential Candidates, Block Future Trump: ‘This Can’t Happen Again’”

      Frank Figliuzzi is one of the worst people in the world. His remark as a former FBI official indicates he wants an authoritarian commission to stomp on Republican populists. What a terrible person he is.

      -FG

    432. MrVito says:

      Past statements have a short shelf life, Ben… less than a day.

      Ben Shapiro
      @benshapiro
      · 1h
      Reporter: “Does the president denounce white supremacism…?”
      McEnany: Reads giant list Trump quotes doing that.
      Reporter: “Can you make a declarative statement that the president denounces it?”
      McEnany: “I just did.”
      Media: Why won’t they denounce white supremacy?!

    433. BayernFan says:

      Fox John Roberts totally beclowned himself today.

    434. MrVito says:

      450 But he did it for Chris.

    435. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      It is difficult to believe this could be considerd a non-bias polling company.

      “For our New Progressive Agenda Project, Data for Progress (@DataProgress) enlisted Civis Analytics (@CivisAnalytics), a leading data science firm, to poll a dozen progressive policies. Our goal is to give policymakers the most reliable numbers to date on support for a new and vibrant progressive agenda. For each policy, we asked a leading politician or expert to explain why it’s necessary. But in addition, we tested it with the public.”

    436. Tina says:

      Figliuzzi is a deep state wack job.

      See his remarks on 8/5 or 8/9.

    437. MrVito says:

      John James
      @JohnJamesMI

      US Senate candidate, MI
      · 44m
      I’m far from perfect, but I do my best to put Jesus’ teachings of love into action by loving my neighbor as myself. Thanks to your continued generosity, our campaign has brought honor and glory to God by donating $1M through the Nickel Promise to communities across Michigan.

    438. MrVito says:

      Kayleigh McEnany
      @PressSec
      ·
      1h

      US government account
      .
      @johnrobertsFox
      I would refer you to your wife’s reporting from 21 hours ago… accurate reporting I cited in the White House Press Briefing.
      Quote Tweet

      Kyra Phillips
      @KyraPhillips
      · 23h
      Just now: ?@realDonaldTrump? tells me he DENOUNCES white supremacists ?@ABCPolitics? ?@ABCNewsLive? ?@ABCWorldNews? ?@ABC? ?@johnrobertsFox?

    439. MrVito says:

      What a farce, John.

    440. Robbie says:

      The last seven polls used in the RCP average have Biden at or above 50%. National polls don’t decide the electoral college, but this isn’t 2016, at least in terms of the national number.

    441. jason says:

      There are plenty of candidates in the Republican Party who can form a large and successful coalition between the suburbs and the rural areas. Nikki Haley, as an example, can do that and so can plenty of other Republicans.”

      LOL

      What absolute garbage.

      Why didn’t Romney form such a coalition? Or McCain? or Dole?

      ecause the suburbs naturally come back to the Republican Party once Trump is no longer president.”

      Again, this is false, there is no “coming back” and it has nothing to do with Trump.

      It has to do with education, age, and ideology of the people in the suburbs vs. 10, 20, 30 years ago.

      The idea that somehow suburb Rs will vote for socialism because of Trump but will reject socialism in 2 years because Trump is not around is really absurd.

    442. MrVito says:

      Re Gina Haspel…

      George Papadopoulos
      @GeorgePapa19
      ·
      16h
      Of course she is. Mifsud, Downer, the CIA, DIA, Halper, “Azra Turk,” and more all “bumped” into me in London. Who was CIA station chief in London at the time? Gina Haspel. She is trying to cover up the UK and Australia’s role with the CIA. Expose i

    443. Tina says:

      Donald J. Trump
      @realDonaldTrump
      ·
      2m
      Why would I allow the Debate Commission to change the rules for the second and third Debates when I easily won last time?

    444. Tina says:

      Baba97
      @Baba9773
      · 10m
      The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s forecast for the 3rd Quarter: 34.6% — October 1, 2020

      The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the 3rd Quarter of 2020 is 34.6% on October 1. Up from 32.0% on Sept. 25th.

      The next update is on Tuesday October 6th.

      https://frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow?panel=4

    445. Pitchaboy says:

      Disappointed with President Paul. DJT accomplished what he wanted with debate: not allow Biden to do what he did to Ryan and drive a wedge between slo Jo and lefties. This is a base election and enthusiasm is only on one side.

    446. Tina says:

      They are going muh supremacisf heavy today.

      Very telling.

    447. Tina says:

      It’s a dumpster fire at faux.

      1
      16
      60

      PollWatch
      @PollWatch2020
      ·
      1h
      Looks like Election Year 2020 fully exposed Fox News as a Democrat media machine.

    448. Tina says:

      Trump cuts refugee caps to lowest on record.

    449. Robbie says:

      Rob Pyers
      @rpyers
      Republicans in California have clawed their way back out of third- party status and outnumber No Party Preference voters for the first time since May 2018.

      – As sad as this statement is, it’s good news. Still, it’s amazing the state that gave us Nixon, Reagan, and other great Republicans was reduced roadkill.

    450. PresidentPaul! says:

      I still can’t believe how fast Colorado has shifted. I remember going to the Denver Lifestock show when i was a kid, and it felt like the old West. It always voted GOP back then.

      Now all of a sudden, it’s Bernie land.

    451. Robbie says:

      jason says:
      October 1, 2020 at 2:16 pm
      There are plenty of candidates in the Republican Party who can form a large and successful coalition between the suburbs and the rural areas. Nikki Haley, as an example, can do that and so can plenty of other Republicans.”

      LOL

      What absolute garbage.

      Why didn’t Romney form such a coalition? Or McCain? or Dole?

      – Goodness. You are rewriting history just like Hillary Clinton did.

      We’ve been over this many times before. Romney was a good man who was a bad candidate. He was running against the first black president and there was a view the economy was improving.

      In 2008, no one was beating Obama especially after Lehman Brothers and the Iraq War and Palin.

      In 1996, Dole was an old man running against a very popular incumbent at a time when the economy was beginning to roar.

      You do realize you can’t win every election, right?

    452. Scooterboy says:

      The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s forecast for the 3rd Quarter: 34.6% — October 1, 2020

      The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the 3rd Quarter of 2020 is 34.6% on October 1. Up from 32.0% on Sept. 25th.

      The next update is on Tuesday October 6th.

    453. Tina says:

      You do realize that Ds have to win all elections.

      -Jebot

    454. Scooterboy says:

      mggander on Twitter.
      Thread on MN voter registration. @CottoGottfried @davidchapman141 @TRElections @PollWatch2020
      I went to the MN SoS site and pulled the numbers yesterday. Wanted to compare the growth in voters from Oct 2012 to Oct 2016 and then from Oct 2016 to essentially today, Oct 2020. (1) 2) I used the following buckets.
      – Hennepin and Ramsey County – Minneapolis/St.Paul and inner suburbs
      – Other Twin Cities Counties – Anoka, Carver, Washington, Dakota, Scott.
      – Any other MN county is Outstate
      3) Hennepin/Ramsey new voter registrations
      Oct 2012-Oct 2016 89.6K
      Oct 2016-Oct 2020 62.8K
      Change = -26.8K registrations short of last cycle

      Other Twin Cities Counties new voter registrations
      Oct 2012-Oct 2016 41.3K
      Oct 2016-Oct 2020 46.6K
      Change = 5.3K registrations
      4) Outstate Counties new voter registrations
      Oct 2012-Oct 2016 4,166
      Oct 2016-Oct 2020 63,009
      Change = 58,843 registrations OVER the pace set in the last cycle

      That outstate number + lack of pacing in H/R counties puts Biden in a BIG HOLE. MN goes to Trump.
      /END

    455. Waingro says:

      “So the best way is to follow Robbie’s advice, the best way to ensure an R senate is for Trump to win.”

      At a minimum, you have to root for Trump to make it a close election. The further his deficit, the more likely the down ballot damage will be.

    456. StaceyBum says:

      ?????? ??????? ???????????? ?????, ??????? ?? ????????? ???????? ????? http://www.zhongwawang.com/home.php?mod=space&uid=247078&do=profile&from=space ????????? ???????????, ?? ?????????? ? ??????????? ????? ???? ??????. ?????????? ????? ????????? ????? ?????????? ?????? ????? ??????, ??????? ?? ?????????? ??????? ??? ????? ? ?????????? ??????????? ???????????? ?????? ????? ?????? CMS.

      ?????????? ??? ??? ???? ???????? ?????? ???? ????????????????? ???????????? ?? ?????? ???? ?????. ??????????? ????? ?????? ??????????? ????????? ?????? ??????????? ? SEO, ????????????? ?????????? ????????? ?? ???-??????? ???????????? ? ??????????? ?????????? ????????? ??????. ???????? ??????????? ??????????? ????? http://rlisystems.ru/bitrix/rk.php?goto=https://seo-runs.com/

    457. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      Sage advice. Whether Trump is re-elected may depend on him following it:

      “House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy said Thursday that President Trump should let his Democratic rival Joseph R. Biden speak as much as possible in the forthcoming debates, predicting that a diminished Mr. Biden is more likely to self-destruct without interruptions.

      “Don’t put a mute button on Joe Biden and for the president. Don’t interrupt him,” Mr. McCarthy, California Republican, said on “Fox & Friends.” “Because every time I watched him speaking, he couldn’t finish [his] sentence.””

    458. jaichind says:

      https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2020/10/01/biden-campaign-begin-person-get-out-vote-efforts/5883685002/

      Biden campaign to begin in-person get-out-the-vote efforts

      Note this MI NV NH and PA. This gives you a sense where the front is. It does not seem to be FL AZ or NC.

    459. Waingro says:

      “If you want to win them back, drop the lawsuit and tell them the radical left will go public option. Inundate the suburbs.”

      Why not just take Trump’s executive order on pre-existing conditions and propose it as a stand-alone bill instead?

      Do it before and after the ACB confirmation hearing. Let the Dems shoot it down. Dumb, fearmongering point now severely weakened.

    460. WEN-KAI TANG says:

      475. Perhaps. I suspect Trump might pivot that way in the second debate if there is one. I think the first debate it still about the Trump brand of strength and dominance. I think he rather take the hit of looking like a bully in exchange for throwing Biden off his game and projecting an image of strength.

    461. GeauxLSU says:

      RE: 476…

      But it’s over and he is running away with election, just check the polls.

    462. Transparent Dem Troll says:

      476 – My boss at the Dem Troll center tells me that I am to teach the new trolls in training that Biden is going to MI, NV, NH and PA as a victory tour to thank his supporters. FL, AZ and NC are already won, so going there would give the GOP a false impression.

      I think my boss thinks I’m nuts.

    463. Tina says:

      Why is he doing. Retail campaigning now?

      What changed about the China virus?

    464. Transparent Dem Troll says:

      Meanwhile, Trump will be in Tucson, AZ and Flagstaff, AZ next week Monday and Tuesday.

    465. Gordon Allen says:

      Don’t tell PP but the Atlanta Federal Reserve GDP tracker for Oct 1,comprising all data for the 3 rd quarter rose 34.6%!!! , an incomprehensibly high number- with NO stimulus.
      In other good news we just went ahead by 2 more votes in Florida as we posted our mailed ballots today!! Good news comes in bunches indeed.

    466. MrVito says:

      “ Why not just take Trump’s executive order on pre-existing conditions and propose it as a stand-alone bill instead?

      Do it before and after the ACB confirmation hearing. Let the Dems shoot it down. Dumb, fearmongering point now severely weakened.”

      Great. Whatever works!

    467. jaichind says:

      Main issue for Biden is these GOTV operations takes time to build up. I remember both the Clinton campaign and GOP had built up their GOTV efforts over an entire year back in 2016.

    468. Pitchaboy says:

      MN and WI missing in that list.

    469. Gordon Allen says:

      Sorry Scooterboy. You beat me to the Atlanta Fed No. I’ll bet the MSM will be all over it…..NOT

    470. MrVito says:

      “ Biden campaign to begin in-person get-out-the-vote efforts”

      Why is he super spreading COVID door to door?

    471. jason says:

      You do realize you can’t win every election, right?”

      What I realize is you are full of crap.

      There is always an excuse on why your theory doesn’t work. And the idea it will somehow start working with Nikki Haley is hilarious.

      The “base” of the R party is no longer the suburbs. It is exburbs and rural areas. And that has nothing to do with Trump. And it is not recent, it has been evolving for years.

      It has to do with who lives in the suburbs, their age and their ideology.

      Do you think the suburban NOVA liberals are going to vote for Nikki Haley? Do you think they are voting for Biden because they don’t like Trump?

      The changes in the R party have nothing to do with Trump. As I have said many times before, Trump is a symptom of the new R party, not the cause. He won the nomination in 2016 because he best reflected the views of most R voters.

      The Republican base now has little to do with the increasingly liberal suburbs. And if Nikki Haley wants to be viable, she better keep that in mind.

      In 2016 I thought my brand of R was the majority. I was wrong. And the idea that this change hinges on an individual like Trump is ludicrous.

      Trump didn’t do worse than Romney or McCain in the suburbs, and Nikki Haley won’t do better either.

    472. jason says:

      My boss at the Dem Troll center tells me that I am to teach the new trolls in training”

      I know there is a lot of pressure to get the new trolls out in the field asap, but I really think you need to send Gatortroll and Mr. Dump back for a refresher.

    473. Waingro says:

      Larry Schweikart
      @LarrySchweikart
      ·
      2m
      From “Freeper” Ravi re Wisconsin:

      10/01/20:
      Milwaukee and Dane Counties (“Blue”): 923,905
      Waukesha (“Red”): 283,373
      All Registered Voters: 3,583,804

      Change from 10/1/16 to 10/1/20:
      Milwaukee and Dane (“Blue”): -1,120
      Waukesha (“Red”): +13,442
      All Registered Voters: +78,742

    474. Tina says:

      We know that Wallace was for Biden.

      Peoples_Pundit
      @Peoples_Pundit
      ·
      3m
      During the debate, Chris Wallace said
      @realDonaldTrump
      didn’t have a healthcare plan, another tee up for Joe Biden.

      How long did he spend doing research for his own debate?

      I found this in five seconds. https://whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/America-First-Healthcare-Plan.pdf

    475. Tina says:

      Maybe Biden will wear his mask properly.

      His nose has been hanging out.

    476. Tina says:

      Robert Barnes
      @Barnes_Law
      ·
      2m
      They know the same thing
      @Peoples_Pundit
      reporting: massive enthusiasm problem w/ Biden backers.
      Quote Tweet

      Julian Delphki
      @enemysgatedown
      · 9m
      It seems that he should have launched in-person canvassing in swing states a month ago at least. Am I wrong? @Barnes_Law @Peoples_Pundit
      https://cnn.com/2020/10/01/politics/biden-in-person-canvassing/index.html

    477. Tina says:

      Michael Ahrens
      @michaelahrens
      ·
      6m
      Team Biden starts knocking doors 72 HOURS after Team Biden says “get the fuck off my doorstep” to canvassers
      Quote Tweet

      Andrew Bates
      @AndrewBatesNC
      · Sep 28
      In short…

      GOP canvasser: Isn’t Trump doing a phenomenal job helping the pandemic take lives and jobs while also fueling division and unrest?

      Voter: Get the fuck off my doorstep before you give me coronavirus. https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-virus-outbreak-winston-salem-voting-fraud-and-irregularities-us-supreme-court-4920f6704962fd2d45a7684bf0b50ba9

    478. Transparent Dem Troll says:

      I am going to ask my boss why Biden has to do any ground game at all given what Quinnipiac and Fox News polls tell us.

    479. jason says:

      But the problem is Trump’s tweets…

      The State of California will study reparations to black Americans, thanks to a bill signed into law Wednesday by Gov. Gavin Newsom.

      AB 3121 will create a nine-member “Task Force to Study and Develop Reparation Proposals for African Americans, with a Special Consideration for African Americans Who are Descendants of Persons Enslaved in the United States,” according to the text of the bill.”

      Note that CA never had slavery and only joined the Union in 1850.

    480. jason says:

      I am going to ask my boss why Biden has to do any ground game at all given what Quinnipiac and Fox News polls tell us.”

      The trolls have done a good job and Biden is way ahead.

      I suggest they be rewarded with a trip to Bogo Pogo, Robbie said it is very nice this time of year.

    481. Transparent Dem Troll says:

      497 – I will forward that to my boss so it can be shown to Kamala Harris. I am sure she will want to add slavery reparations to her stump speech as she tours the rust belt states.

    482. MrVito says:

      497 Not according to Chris Wallace’s “racial sensitivity training”

    483. jason says:

      I still can’t believe how fast Colorado has shifted. I remember going to the Denver Lifestock show when i was a kid, and it felt like the old West. It always voted GOP back then.

      Now all of a sudden, it’s Bernie land.”

      According to Robbie, they will come back for Nikki Haley.

    484. MrVito says:

      Then Robbie’s higher than they are…

    485. MrVito says:

      Peoples_Pundit
      @Peoples_Pundit
      ·
      6h
      Which is kind of worse.

      Why?

      Because those of us who actually served in the U.S. military know full well that you’re getting dishonorably discharged if you piss dirty…

      Unless your daddy isn’t a U.S. Senator.
      Quote Tweet

      Josh Rogin
      @joshrogin
      · Sep 29
      Trump is wrong, Hunter Biden was not “dishonorably discharged” from the Navy. He was administratively separated after failing a drug test.

    486. Tina says:

      March 2016

      Trump condemns white supremacy. Questioned asked by best in biz moderator, Wallace.

      https://twitter.com/RubinReport/status/1311469297613504512

    487. Tina says:

      Peoples_Pundit
      @Peoples_Pundit
      ·
      2m
      Miller, Trump Campaign: “We do not want any changes from what has been agreed to before the first debate.”

      “It didn’t turn out the way they wanted. That’s why they want changes.”

    488. Waingro says:

      #501, Robbie is pushing Nikki Haley, huh? I like Nikki, but she has no shot in the 2024 GOP primaries.

      Like it or not, the protectionist/nationalists have become a sizable part of the new GOP coalition — and they DESPISE her.

    489. Tina says:

      It’s because your operation was destroyed.

      Wallace: “I had baked this beautiful, delicious cake and then frankly the President put his foot in it. And that was frustrating. It was frustrating for me because I tried hard to prepare for a serious debate, much more frustrating and more importantly for the American people…”

    490. MrVito says:

      BREAKING: Chris Wallace admits the cake was baked

    491. Tina says:

      Ryan Saavedra
      @RealSaavedra
      ·
      34m
      Moderator For 2nd Trump-Biden Debate Worked As Intern For Biden, Staff Assistant For Ted Kennedy

    492. jason says:

      I like Nikki Haley. I would be fine with her as President.

      But I seriously doubt she would get more votes than Trump in an election, and any marginal gains she could make in suburbs she would probably lose elsewhere as compared to Trump. The idea that she could build a better coalition than Trump just doesn’t seem realistic to me at all.

      I just can’t see the enthusiasm I see for Trump where I live transferred to Haley, just like I didn’t see it for McCain or Romney.

    493. Country Dick Montana says:

      Who would be the heir apparent to Trump. Please don’t say one of his kids.

    494. jason says:

      In any case if Robbie really wants to see Haley as President (which I doubt), then he better hope Trump wins.

      If he doesn’t the voting system will be a joke by 2024 and no R is getting elected President.

    495. MrVito says:

      I suggested Stefanik… didn’t get any thoughts.

    496. jason says:

      Wallace: “I had baked this beautiful, delicious cake and then frankly the President put his foot in it.”

      Translation: my plans to help Biden were thwarted by the President.

    497. jason says:

      If Trump wins, I could support Haley, although I prefer Rubio.

      If he loses, it won’t matter who I support, so I would probably go with Sean Hannity or Don Jr.

    498. Phil says:

      512

      What you just said, Jason, times a hundred. That’s what people like Robbie just don’t get. If Democrats get control, the voting rules will be completely changed forever. A Republican won’t be able to get elected dog catcher, let alone President.

    499. Boog says:

      Jim Jordan
      Kristi Noem
      Tom Cotton
      Dan Crenshaw

    500. Phil says:

      Noem needs to be on the ticket.

    501. jason says:

      I am not too sure about Jordan, too much of a loose cannon.

      Of those 4, Cotton would probably be most likely to hold on to Trump’s 2016 coalition.

      Cotton-Noem would be a good ticket.

    502. Transparent Dem Troll says:

      516 – I cannot tell you how many times I have seen internal memos with wording like “we will never allow it to happen again.”

      We are all about control, we admit we took Trump for granted in 2016, a mistake we will never make again. Once we get the White House, it will be executive order time! Permanent one-party rule.

    503. jason says:

      If Trumps loses, maybe Don Jr. – Ivanka, or is that against the law?

    504. MrVito says:

      Martina Markota
      @MartinaMarkota
      · 1h
      Proud Boys and Black Lives Matter leaders hold joint conference in SLC to denounce white supremacy.

    505. MrVito says:

      Max M. Marin
      @MaxMMarin
      ·
      3h
      A laptop and USB devices were stolen sometime this week from the Philadelphia’s elections storage warehouse.

      I went over this morning to check out the security situation. I was able to walk right into the voting machine storage unit, alone, for several minutes.

    506. PresidentPaul! says:

      The moderator for debate #2 also worked for Ted Kennedy in addition to being Biden’s intern.

    507. Gordon Allen says:

      Haley is a Bush type in disguise. Noem/ Desantis,or the other way around, keeps the Trump coalition together,and maybe adds some in the ” suburbs”. Florida is the single most critical state to hold with 29 Electoral votes, likely to grow after the 2020 census.

    508. MrVito says:

      Robert Barnes
      @Barnes_Law
      ·
      52m
      Trump trading as low as 35% in some betting markets. Now is a good time to bet @realDonaldTrump

    509. PresidentPaul! says:

      Michael Flynn’s lawyer says she asked Trump not to pardon him

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zl5gsdUG_Zk

    510. Country Dick Montana says:

      https://triblive.com/news/pennsylvania/appeals-court-allows-pennsylvania-to-restrict-crowd-size/

      Two GWB Judges along with a BHO judge overturn ruling against PA Governor Wolf. He can now control crowd sizes and close “non-essential” businesses again. They did it without comment.

      Screw the courts.

    511. PresidentPaul! says:

      https://twitter.com/QTRResearch/status/1311766512148131840?s=20

      Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot entered her press briefing today dressed as the “Rona Destroyer.”

    512. Waingro says:

      Boom?

      Billy Newby
      @mantlehog
      Wisconsin Voter Reg. Update:
      Nov 2016 – 3,558,877
      9/30/20 – 3,583,804
      (+24,927)

      Nov 16 to 9/30
      Trump Counties +44,896
      Clinton Counties -19,969

      Jul 20 to Aug 20
      Trump Counties +106,591
      Clinton Counties +56,626

      Aug 20 to Sep 20
      Trump Counties +71,057
      Clinton Counties +36,400

    513. Tina says:

      14
      17

      Peoples_Pundit
      @Peoples_Pundit
      ·
      34m
      F—A, Robert! What’d I tell you? uCan I get a witness?
      Quote Tweet

      Robert Barnes
      @Barnes_Law
      · 1h
      Strongly Democratic pollster showing Trump putting Iowa away, already. twitter.com/Politics_Polls…

    514. NYCmike says:

      “I suggested Stefanik… didn’t get any thoughts.”

      -I wanted to check out how old she was before answering……will turn 40 in 2024…..she would be youngest person ever elected President.

      Would have to think about that…..I do like her work.

    515. Tina says:

      What will twitter do if trump retweets this?

      https://twitter.com/k_ovfefe2/status/1311761672860770309

    516. Tina says:

      Yikes, this is the second debate moderator?

      Steve Scully
      @SteveScully
      · Mar 18, 2016
      No, Not Trump, Not Ever http://nyti.ms/1UFMxdm

    517. Tina says:

      Me too.

      John Cardillo
      @johncardillo
      ·
      9m
      Can’t say why without betraying a confidence, but I just had a BIG restoration of faith moment in AG Barr and Durham.

    518. Country Dick Montana says:

      532-Just checked her Wikipedia page. Came up in politics via, GWB, Romney and Ryan. Against pulling out of Paris Accords. Voted with democrats to overturn a Trump veto of an immigration issue. Voted against the 2017 tax cut because it didn’t allow high tax Blue States to keep getting deductions.

      Whether you agree or disagree with her positions, she is probably a pretty good Republican for NY, but would get hammered as being establishment in primaries.

    519. Hugh says:

      528. More votes for trump. Man gwb was a horrible president. I had no idea at the time

    520. Chicon says:

      535 – I’m in “Show Me State” mode on that one.

    521. Waingro says:

      “Haley is a Bush type in disguise. Noem/ Desantis,or the other way around, keeps the Trump coalition together,and maybe adds some in the ” suburbs”. Florida is the single most critical state to hold with 29 Electoral votes, likely to grow after the 2020 census.”

      DeSantis is my #1 early favorite. The “hybrid” choice if you will. Appealing to all central masses of the new GOP coalition and has enough bipartisan stroke in purple-reddish FL.

      Hopefully, his COVID numbers continue to go down as he begins to really open up the state again. That’s the only thing that could hurt him politically. Before the pandemic, he has sky high approval ratings.

      Others I like: Josh Hawley and Tom Cotton.

      Hawley, especially, appears to be trying to take up the populist/protectionist position, which could serve him well. But he’s also generally pretty conservative and has an excellent legal background.

      Cotton I could see turning off the protectionist base a bit with his hawkish views, but he might bring more “neo-con” Republicans back in the fold.

      I’m not sold on Noem as a viable POTUS candidate yet, but I do like her a lot.

    522. PresidentPaul! says:

      I keep wondering if Michael Flynn is Trump’s heir for 2024 actually

    523. MrVito says:

      Ok. How about John James should he win?

    524. Waingro says:

      #540, seriously, Bunu?

      #541, I LOVE John James, but I think that might be a little too soon for him, especially with likely numerous senators running.

      However, he could make a great VP pick.

    525. Tina says:

      So, they are bffs?

      Steve Scully
      @SteveScully
      · Jun 4, 2016
      Gotta love the @VP at the Biden Beach Bash ’16

    526. Tina says:

      No not trump ever

      -Steve Scully

    527. phoenixrisen says:

      476 – jai, too late. The Biden campaign is too far behind. Those take months to build. The Trump ground game is a juggernaut that was built from 2017 and the results in these registration numbers are staggering. Add Trump adding significant numbers in Hispanic and AA voters and the DNC has to be terrified at the monster that is about to devour them. The House is in play looking at the registration numbers as well.

    528. jaichind says:

      551. Hopefully that is true. It seems Trump did raise tons of money but seems to be behind Biden in terms of cash on hand. Ideally this is because Trump built a GOTV machine while now Biden might lots of money but like Bloomberg in FL could only throw them on ads since it is too late to use those funds to build a GOTV organization.

      In 2016 the GOTV gap between Trump and Clinton was not as large as reported since the GOP has invested a lot into this since 2012. But it is clear in term of GOTV Trump is much stronger relative to his opponent in 2020 versus 2016.

    529. Country Dick Montana says:

      551 – They still have the Unions, particularly ones like the SEIU, NEA, ATF and other non LEO public employee unions that can ramp up people very quickly.

    530. Hugh says:

      Part of the problem with a dem ground game is that so many of them have bought into the fear.

    531. This is the house that the DNC built. It chose not to build a ground game and then bet the farm on mail-in ballots. Now that the Republicans have stopped the majority of atrocities in court and through skillful reporting have scared many a voter from voting by mail, the DNC is in a bind. It now has to convince the voters it has told for months how dangerous being in public is to onw wait in line at the polls. They see the tsunami coming and it may be too late to stop it.

    532. Tina says:

      Settlements next.

      Nicholas Sandmann
      @N1ckSandmann
      · 21m
      Motions to Dismiss defamation lawsuits against NY Times, Rolling Stone, ABC, & CBS were just DENIED.

    533. Pitchaboy says:

      Dems are real confident of a landslide win. They are preparing for a house vote to elect the President: sounds more like a mudslide to me.

    534. Tina says:

      What if the unions are broken?

      Workers disagree with union leadership?

      Then what?

    535. Tina says:

      Yikes.

      John Solomon
      @jsolomonReports
      ·
      54m
      Breaking: Just before Obama left office, U.S. officials feared Hunter Biden firm in Ukraine paid second bribe, memos show | Just The News

    536. Robbie says:

      jason says:
      October 1, 2020 at 3:31 pm
      I still can’t believe how fast Colorado has shifted. I remember going to the Denver Lifestock show when i was a kid, and it felt like the old West. It always voted GOP back then.

      Now all of a sudden, it’s Bernie land.”

      According to Robbie, they will come back for Nikki Haley.

      – I didn’t say that. I said the suburbs, generally, will likely revert back once Trump is gone. I also have a hard time believing the suburbs, long a Republican stronghold, would be hostile to someone like Nikki Haley.

      You can always point to an exception, but the exception does not disprove the rule.

    537. Tina says:

      Dumpster fire.

      Ned Ryun
      @nedryun
      ·
      2h
      After the Wallace debacle the other night and the Roberts’ meltdown today, one has to ask: what the hell is going on with Fox?

    538. Tina says:

      Surely, trump would have rejected scully as moderator.

      And the debate commission should have said no to scully,

      They are not even pretending to be independent anymore.

    539. Robbie says:

      MrVito says:
      October 1, 2020 at 3:32 pm
      Then Robbie’s higher than they are…

      – If you think Mitch McConnell and the gang are suddenly going to become populist culture warriors, then we disagree.

      This forum has become too invested in the idea that populism is the future. It’s not and it’s never been.

    540. Tina says:

      Somebody needs to do a welfare check on John Faux Fox Roberts.

      This could be serious.

    541. Country Dick Montana says:

      560 – Tina, that is why I mentioned those particular unions. Teachers Union members and Public Employee Union members, along with Service Employees union member can be pretty rabid DEMS.

      Construction, steel workers, etc, that is Trumps base and as I showed in the article this morning, their leaders do not represent their views.

    542. janz says:

      Here’s an interesting anecdotal story: a pest control contractor dropped by today. He has become an outspoken conservative during this election cycle, while servicing many of the liberal millionaires/billionaires living in the Hollywood Hills overlooking Los Angeles. He says they are shocked when he tells them Trump is going to win the election. When they challenge him on his prediction, he points to the city below and says those are the little working people who are going to come out and vote for Trump. There are more of them than there are of you.

      Even living here in denim blue CA, I have become more surprised at how many minority small business owners and workers are voting R this time around. They only talk about it when they know the person they are confiding in share their political views, too.

    543. Country Dick Montana says:

      Can someone actually define populism for me? Seriously.

    544. Tina says:

      Janz,

      Biden is not doing as well in California compared to Hillary.

      Nuissance is unpopular with the gas tax, money to illegals, and refusing to reopen Disneyland, destroying Anaheim and Orange County.

    545. BayernFan says:

      A political philosophy supporting the rights and power of the people in their struggle against the privileged elite.
      n. The movement organized around this philosophy.

    546. Robbie says:

      Waingro says:
      October 1, 2020 at 3:45 pm
      #501, Robbie is pushing Nikki Haley, huh? I like Nikki, but she has no shot in the 2024 GOP primaries.

      Like it or not, the protectionist/nationalists have become a sizable part of the new GOP coalition — and they DESPISE her.

      – She might not win. I’m not saying she will. She could easily be the Jeb of 2024. Still, I think people in this forum overrate the staying power of populism and Trumpism.

      The protectionist/nationalist wing is not the majority of the party. They have an outsized role in Trump’s White House because Trump likes that stuff, but we’ll see what happens once Trump is gone and the Peter Navarros of the world go back to irrelevance.

      Trump was a political unicorn who pulled off a hostile takeover of the party in 2015/16. Had the rest of the party been awake, they’d have seen what was happening. And had they seen what was happening earlier, Trump wouldn’t have won the nomination.

      What happened in 2015/16 is water under the bridge at this point, but my point is Trump is glue that gives the protectionist/nationalist wing their power. When he’s gone, who has the ability to dominate the scene and promote those views? Tom Cotton? I doubt it? Josh Hawley? Maybe, but I think it’s a mistake to suggest he’s a Trumpist. Mike Pompeo? He’s a Tea Party guy.

    547. Country Dick Montana says:

      “A political philosophy supporting the rights and power of the people in their struggle against the privileged elite.
      n. The movement organized around this philosophy.”

      It can be almost any political movement depending on who is defined as the elite. So Left Wing populism goes after the rich (Occupy Wall Street) and right wing populism goes after the ruling elite and their enablers in the press and big business.

    548. Country Dick Montana says:

      “Trump wouldn’t have won the nomination.”

      And HRC would be President. Think about it.

      “When he’s gone, who has the ability to dominate the scene and promote those views?”

      To some extent those views will have to be accommodated, otherwise a significant portion of the base stops voting.

    549. Tina says:

      More Biden voters.

      Breaking911
      @Breaking911
      · 1h
      BREAKING: US-bound migrant caravan enters Guatemala – AFP

    550. Chicon says:

      Robbie like to call Trump a populist. He’s not. He does not seek to help the unwashed in a struggle against the elite. He’s seeking to get the government out of the way to help all.

    551. jason says:

      Populist is some MSM word Robbie adopted because he thinks it is derogatory to Trump.

      I am sure he doesn’t even know what it means.

      Trump is no populist.

    552. Annie says:

      570. As I was waiting in line at In ‘n Out, I saw two women collecting signatures for a “Recall Newsom” effort. On the front page of the Sacramento Buzz (aka, the Bee) today is an article about how Newsom just signed a law for studies on how to best pay out black reparations. And, just where does he think the money for all this is going to come from? He is already trying to raise businesses’ property taxes…after the extended covid lockdown and losing many to other states, because they already pay far too much. Next, Newsom will come after more personal property taxes – hoping to overturn Prop 13.

    553. Annie says:

      575. They must have heard how Pelosi wants to give them stimulus money.

    554. jason says:

      I didn’t say that. I said the suburbs, generally, will likely revert back once Trump is gone.”

      Zzzzzzz…..

      In the first place, people who live in the suburbs have greatly benefited from Trump’s presidency. Higher home values, return on investments, better job opportunities, you name it.

      The idea that the suburban vote is “hidden R” just waiting for Trump to leave has no basis in fact. If Biden wins the suburban vote, it is because they want what he is offering.

      The suburbs are more liberal now due to changing demographics and ideology.

      Nothing is going to “revert” back.

    555. Annie says:

      580. Suburbs also benefitting from the raise in incomes under Trump.

    556. Robbie says:

      jason says:
      October 1, 2020 at 6:25 pm
      The suburbs are more liberal now due to changing demographics and ideology.

      Nothing is going to “revert” back.

      – So the suburbs weren’t liberal in 2014 and 2016, but they’re now more liberal in 2020. What happened between 2016 and today that moved them to the left?

    557. jason says:

      Trump was a political unicorn who pulled off a hostile takeover of the party in 2015/16.”

      No. This is wrong 100 times over.

      It was not a hostile takeover at all. Trump was drafted by the majority of R voters and he represents their views, not the other way around.
      Again, Trump is a symptom of today’s R party, not the cause. You think his ideas were new to anybody who voted for him in the primaries? That he had this brilliant idea of America first and trade wars and tariffs and the great unwashed said “damm, what a great idea”, I am going to vote for him. No. Trump adroitly saw the opportunity and he catered to it. Many of here were surprised, and wrong. Trump didn’t create any opportunity, he merely filled the demand so to speak.

      And of course isolationists are the majority of the party. How many people believe in free trade in this forum, 2 or 3?

    558. Tina says:

      Donald J. Trump
      @realDonaldTrump
      I’m used to it!
      Quote Tweet

      Shelly Glowing starGlowing starGlowing star
      @blondecurls
      · 47m
      Replying to @SteveScully
      @realDonaldTrump this debate will be another 2 vs 1.

    559. Pitchaboy says:

      DJT was picked over guys like Jeb and Marco because voters did not want these guys in WH. They wanted a guy to shake things up. DJT has huge flaws but he does what he says and is the most conservative Prez in the last 50 years. And he is vastly underrated in his foreign policy which Wallace ignored over issues like white supremacy.

    560. jason says:

      What happened between 2016 and today that moved them to the left?”

      Obama carried the suburbs. A black flaming liberal vowing to change America as we know it. Do you think that would have happened in 2000?

      The major city suburbs have been trending Dem for at least over a decade, since 2008 anyway. There may be up and down shifts but the suburban trend is more young professionals who are more liberal than the people they are replacing.

      What is changing is the ideology. You may find some people like those Bitter describes that will vote against their interests because they hate Trump, but most people don’t vote that way.

      Dems are gaining in the suburbs not because of Trump, but because their ideas are more popular. And they are more popular because they are product of a biased and dogmatic educational system.

    561. jason says:

      Had the rest of the party been awake, they’d have seen what was happening. And had they seen what was happening earlier, Trump wouldn’t have won the nomination.”

      LOL

      Says the guy who promoted Jeb Bush, the most unprepared, uninspiring and ineffective “front runner” in history and spent $250 million for 4 delegates and trashed Marco Rubio, who at least had some positive body language and appeal to try to derail Trump. At the time you thought it was a great idea for Jeb to spend $40 million running ads against Rubio. How did that work out for you?

      In the end, I think Trump would have prevailed anyway. Rubio did not have the right message for the times either. But he was one heck of a better candidate than Jeb.

      You can’t make this sh-t up.

    562. Tina says:

      Yes, I promoted jeb, but you know who I really wanted to win.

      -Jebot

    563. Bitterlaw says:

      I know many people who vote against their interests to be Dems. They can easily afford it and they think they are helping the less fortunate. Jason knows as much about the Philadelphia suburbs as I do about llamas.

    564. Tina says:

      2019 John faux fox Roberts said the president come out strongly against white supremacists.

      https://twitter.com/Techno_Fog/status/1311803164174233600

    565. MrVito says:

      I thought Roberts had been generally okay toward Trump. Maybe they told him his job was on the line.

    566. MrVito says:

      He said he would. I posted the warning.

      Seung Min Kim
      @seungminkim
      · 2h
      Missed this yesterday – because Dems are procedurally forcing Republicans to stay in the Senate next week, McConnell just went ahead and filed cloture on five judges last night

    567. Scooterboy says:

      These are not the actions of a campaign that thinks it’s winning. If you thought you were winning, why would you need to start a ground game this late ? If you were winning, why not just keep doing what is working?

      Alex Thompson- “ Biden camp two weeks ago: we don’t need to door knock and people don’t want us to knock on their doors.

      Biden today: this weekend will dispatch several hundred newly trained volunteers to knock doors across Nevada, Michigan, NH, and Pennsylvania

    568. MrVito says:

      Joanna Rodriguez
      @joannamrod
      · 1h
      .@CalforNC’s Communications Director repeatedly interrupted his Editorial Board interview after questions over his involvement in the controversial 751 South development.

      The Charlotte Observer then edited the exchange out of the video, covering it up. https://washex.am/3in6cOS

    569. MrVito says:

      Matt Whitlock
      @mattdizwhitlock
      ·
      46m

      If a staffer tries to cut off an interview because they don’t like a question — you know it’s gotta be a doozy. Especially if it’s on video!

      “I don’t think a question about [this scandal] is germane..” is.. an incredible thing to try!

    570. Dylan says:

      Call me naive—but how on earth does knocking on doors even get you a single vote?? This isn’t Norman Rockwell America ——I’m never opening my door for some random political operative

    571. Gilbert Waldron says:

      With the COVID closing down most colleges. Classes for the most part being online and majority of the students have went back home. Most college students are registered to vote where they go to college.

      How many of these students will ask for or receive a mail in ballot? I don’t believe that many of them will drive back to their college town to vote. Most young people are not that motivated to go the extra mile to vote like that. That age group usually does not vote at the same rate of other age group voters already.

      It may not be seem like this will cost the Democrats that many votes but I beg to differ. It could easily make a difference in the turn out around Milwaukee. If that happens Wisconsin is that much closer to staying in Trumps camp.

    572. PresidentPaul! says:

      Copper prices moving down today. Also crude oil falling as well. We’ll see if the bond market follows through with them.

      I still think we could get a roll over. The Germany economy is already in deflation.

    573. Gilbert Waldron says:

      How does COVID affect voting in Nevada? With the casinos all closed down, will it affect the unions ability to get out the in Clark County? They have made it very easy for casino employees to go vote on the clock. These unions in lock step with the Democrats.

      I believe it will negatively affect the turnout to a degree in Clark County and help close the margin in Nevada. In a close race it could make the difference.

    574. MrVito says:

      Trump signed some executive order about China and rare metals… that have something to do with it?

    575. PresidentPaul! says:

      Wonder how Disney feels having to fire 28000 workers with no hope for a bailout meanwhile their sibling aka the airlines are told the government will pay for everything.

    576. PresidentPaul! says:

      idk “Dr Copper” and oil are just my proxies for what industrialized economies are doing. Any time they are falling, that rings alarm bells. Now watch to see if the bond market follows through at some point (indicating risk.) The next if things get real tight, then the dollar will start strengthening and then all hell breaks lose.

    577. wheelz91 says:

      Where is Theresa Greenfield – Dem for Iowa – getting all of her money from? She has an add on TV every 3 minutes trashing Joni Earnst. There is hardly any adds for Earnst.

    578. Gordon Allen says:

      PP. It’s amazing how you flat refuse to look at real time economic data, like a 34.6% growth rate in the third quarter. Please comment on how that number,which was rising strongly higher toward the end of the quarter leads to an economy rolling over?? You never mention that because literally you have NO answer.

    579. Steven Mnuchin says:

      Thanks President Paul. Were are taking everything under advisement

    580. Jay Powell says:

      Ditto

    581. Pitchaboy says:

      PP: I am a guy of reasonable wit but I don’t understand most of what you post. You are one crazy fella. People here are discussing debates and you are talking copper.

    582. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      Just received a petition to recall Newsom by E-mail. Downloaded, signed and mailed it in.
      Here is the message that came with it:

      “California is headed in the wrong direction. We have…
      The highest tax rates in the nation …
      The most people on welfare …
      Record homelessness…
      And recently rolling blackouts.
      Our schools are failing and our roads are crumbling. Yet the Governor finds billions to spend on wasteful pet projects like high speed rail in Fresno.

      The fact is, California under Gavin Newsom is starting to resemble a third world country.

      You can do something about it!

      You don’t know us – we are just regular citizens. But we love this state and we want to fix things before it’s too late. We could flee to another state, but we believe California is worth fighting for.

      Click below to print the OFFICIAL GAVIN NEWSOM RECALL PETITION at your home.”

    583. Slobbie says:

      She might not win. I’m not saying she will. She could easily be the Jeb of 2024.

      – Which is why I support her!

    584. jason says:

      I post this as a public service to the trolls here.

      No, no need to thank me, community service is an important function of being an A-hole.

      “adults with mental health disorders are up to twice as likely to die from severe COVID-19 than those without the conditions”

    585. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      Just wanted to make sure you all saw this. Ernst down DOUBLE DIGITS. Like Rats fleeing a sinking ship, voters can’t get away from Republicans fast enough!

      IOWA — The latest poll of Iowa voters shows Senator Joni Ernst is trailing Democratic challenger Theresa Greenfield by double digits just over a month before Election Day.

      The Nexstar Iowa 2020 RABA Research Poll shows Greenfield is leading Ernst 51% to 39%, a 12 point lead, as the campaigns head into October.

      https://who13.com/news/theresa-greenfield-leads-joni-ernst-by-12-points-in-new-poll-of-iowa-voters/

    586. Robbie says:

      jason says:
      October 1, 2020 at 6:40 pm
      Obama carried the suburbs. A black flaming liberal vowing to change America as we know it. Do you think that would have happened in 2000?

      -NBC News 2012 Exit Polls

      Suburbs
      Romney 50
      Obama 48

    587. jason says:

      I am a guy of reasonable wit but I don’t understand most of what you post. You are one crazy fella. People here are discussing debates and you are talking copper.”

      Paulbots live in a different reality.

      Bunu supposedly is a “conservative”, but he thinks Nancy Pelosi is trying to pass her $3 trillion wishlist to help Republican win the election.

      But then, he famously said “IA is Paul country”.

    588. jason says:

      Suburbs
      Romney 50
      Obama 48

      Wow that proves your point that the suburbs were very Republican in 2008? 48% for a black leftist with a mediocre record in politics and who had never run even a lemonade stand.

      In any event, just so you don’t think I made it up, I used the Pew survey which gave him 50% and was probably more accurate, but close enough, both numbers make my point.

    589. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      When Bernie Sanders talks of Sweden as an example of the benefits of socialism, its fantasy talk. Sweden abandoned the socialism of Olof Palme decades ago. Support for socialism in Sweden now is lower than in the U.S.

      “Sweden’s history is worth remembering when, as shown in a recent Pew poll, 42 percent of Americans express a positive view of socialism. In fact, 15 percent of self?described Republicans have a positive view of socialism. That’s easy for them. They never experienced it. At the same time, another poll showed that no more than 9 percent of Swedes call themselves socialists. So, astonishingly, it seems like there are fewer socialists in Sweden than in the GOP.””

    590. Hugh says:

      Raba research July 31 had hrc leading Trump by 16 in PA. A+ rating by liberals dems everywhere.

    591. jason says:

      Ok Romney not McCain.

      But in any event whether its 50 or 48, the Dems were already making big inroads into the suburbs way before Trump.

    592. jason says:

      When Bernie Sanders talks of Sweden as an example of the benefits of socialism, its fantasy talk. Sweden abandoned the socialism of Olof Palme decades ago. Support for socialism in Sweden now is lower than in the U.S.”

      Take that with a grain of salt.

      What the swedes view as socialism might not be exactly what we think as socialism.

    593. MichiganGuy says:

      #583 “And of course isolationists are the majority of the party.”
      .
      Jason, no matter how many times you repeat this lie it will never be true. LOL
      .
      Wanting better trade deals is not being an isolationist. The NAFTA deal was a bad deal. Trump negotiated a much better deal ( USMCA ). The China trade deal was another terrible deal. The new U.S.-China Phase 1 trade deal is much better. As Biden would say C’mon man get your head out of your a$$.

    594. Todd McCain says:

      The biggest problem facing the GOP right now is DEM BIG MONEY; it is overwhelming and this is now the third cycle in a row where we are getting out manned and out gunned with respect to money. Act Blue is an effing juggernaut and Win Red needs to catch up…..

    595. Tina says:

      Bubu also hears piglosis,China’s virus Bill.

      Full of pork to special interests

      Light on money to folks.

    596. jason says:

      Since Obama’s margin was cut in half in 2012, you would expect a bigger drop than 2 points in the suburbs, if there were not already an ideological component to his support.

      Republicans are losing ground in local elections in suburbs all around Philly.

      You know what Romney got in Trump hating Delaware County against Obama? 38%. Trump got 37%.

      Good luck Nikki Haley.

    597. jason says:

      Win Red needs to catch up…..”

      Could the trolls help out?

      The election is decided, so…

    598. Scooterboy says:

      M. Joseph Sheppard- “ Welp! For first time since September 2nd & post debate Trump has moved ahead of his 2016 polling in RCP top battleground states (and we know how that turned out in the end)

      Top Battlegrounds 2020 D +3.5 2016 D +3.8 Trump +0.3

    599. jason says:

      Wanting better trade deals is not being an isolationist. The NAFTA deal was a bad deal. Trump negotiated a much better deal ( USMCA ). The China trade deal was another terrible deal. The new U.S.-China Phase 1 trade deal is much better. As Biden would say C’mon man get your head out of your a$$.”

      LOL

      If I was going to describe what an isolationist and an AFL-CIO conservative was, I would write something EXACTLY like that.

      The lack of self awareness is just astounding.

      But in any case, why do you care? I just said people like you are a majority in the party. You should be happy.

    600. jason says:

      “The NAFTA deal was a bad deal. Trump negotiated a much better deal ( USMCA )”

      Zzzzzzz…. actually it is NOT a better deal

      The only good part of it is that most of it remained intact, most of the changes were window dressings and a few bones to the AFL-CIO.

    601. Hugh says:

      619. I hope then you are contributing. The dumbest thing trump did was not do the billionaire tax. Mnuchin talked him out of it. We should make the billionaires fear us. Since they do not they spend like drunk sailors against us. They know dems will support them for their cash and republicans will out of some weird orthodoxy about low taxes support them
      As well. Dems understand you reward your friends and punish your enemies. We never understood the benefit of punishing your enemies. Why does wall street give their money to dems? To get their votes while Republicans give them for free.

    602. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      It is nice to see you all turning talk toward 2024 and how to win elections again. I guess the inevitable Biden landslide is starting to sink in for some of you.

    603. jason says:

      Wanting better trade deals”

      Everyone “wants” better trade deals. Everyone woud like to have an advantage over the other guy. But that is not the principle of free trade.

      The question is whether a trade policy based on tariffs and trade wars is the way to go, when it never worked before.

      And any trade deal you get by bullying Mexico or Brazil with tariffs, where they have little choice but to agree, is not really free trade.

      Pretending tariffs and trade wars are actually an avenue for free trade is like f–king for virginity.

      Just as ridiculous.

    604. jason says:

      It is nice to see you all turning talk toward 2024 and how to win elections again.”

      This is disheartening.

      The troll obviously has not read my posts.

      All the marbles are in this election.

      Anyone looking to 2024 is a moron.

    605. jason says:

      The dumbest thing trump did was not do the billionaire tax. Mnuchin talked him out of it.

      Ohh, puhhhleaze…

      You sound like Bunu with his “let’s approve Pelosi’s wish list” because it might help win elections.

      A billionaire tax is a slippery slope. Once you open that gate, the horses are fleeing the barn.

      Republicans should oppose billionaire taxes because it is basically confiscation.

    606. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      Wait, you don’t actually think Demented Don still has a chance do you? You seemed reasonable.

    607. jason says:

      And of course billionaires don’t fear a billionaire tax, after all, they are still billionaires.

      We want them investing in the private sector, not giving it to the government.

    608. JeffP says:

      I love how Gatorbait posts these D polls and no one feeds the troll.

      Battleground numbers looking good.

    609. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      Did I miss the talk about the CNBC poll showing Biden up 13 post debate? I’ve been busy putting up MJ Hager signs. Her momentum is taking off.

    610. jason says:

      Wait, you don’t actually think Demented Don still has a chance do you? You seemed reasonable.”

      I still give him 50%, right now about 8% than the betting averages.

      If you think Biden is a sure thing, you should invest, you can buy him at 60% and make 40 cents on the dollar.

    611. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      617. The U.S. and Sweden have uniquely different cultures. Their politics reflect it. Sweden has a welfare state, but it also has a strong work ethic. They are not tolerant of indolent people.

      Likewise in neighboring Finland, where my family is from, an unemployed person is sent potential job offers found by the government unemployment agency. If they decline the job, they lose their unemployment pay:

      “Finnish unemployment authorities say they’ve sent out vastly increased numbers of job offers to out-of-work benefit claimants this year. But alongside the increase comes a hike in the number of jobless having their benefits cut for refusing to take up a post that’s on offer.”

    612. jason says:

      8% more than the betting averages I should say.

      But go quickly, before the election Trumps numbers will improve on the betting sites, whether he wins or loses.

    613. jason says:

      Say Gatortroll, you seem like a nice guy, read my post on COVID above.

      You shouldn’t be outside.

    614. jason says:

      Dang, Biden at 63%, you just missed 3 cents in profit.

      But don’t worry, he will go below 60 sooner or later.

    615. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      I’m sure there will be an internal Republican “poll” showing Don the Tax Con down by only 4 in PA or MI soon enough that everyone on here will cling to. Like you do your guns and religion. 😉

    616. Tina says:

      Trump post debate job approval

      Pre-debate Trump Approval 42% LV

      Post Debate Trump +2 RV WELP
      @NateSilver538

      SEP 30, 2020
      B/C
      Morning Consult/Politico
      1,856RVApprove
      44%

    617. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      Biden up 2 in Georgia. Last poll from same group had Trump up 7.

      BOOM

    618. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      640. So we should stop clinging to our religion?

    619. Transparent Dem Troll says:

      I got the memo on the GA poll, it was a 1 day poll with a smaller sample juiced to show huge difference from debate, with the added touch that voters have now made up their minds and won’t change.

    620. MichiganGuy says:

      ‘Was voting for Biden. Now voting for Trump’.
      .
      https://www.facebook.com/bedroskeuilian/videos/2721083188157991/
      .
      This is awesome.

    621. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      645 – that was before Demented Don refused to condemn racism and white hate groups.

    622. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      The mood sure is somber around here.

      Cheer up, Trump voters. At least you got that wall built along the border. And the repeal and replace of Obamacare has to make you feel good. Or what about putting “Crooked Hillary” behind bars finally? The new SC justices are great. I’m sure they’ll be very welcoming to the justices that President Biden and the Democrat majority in the senate add at the end of January.

    623. Tina says:

      Senator Munchkin meets with ACB. He is the first Drat to meet with her.

    624. Justin says:

      641 – Tina, what is that poll showing?

    625. Tina says:

      Justin his job approval is up 2 Points post debate.

      Follows Ras and Gallup showing increases post debate.

    626. jason says:

      that was before Demented Don refused to condemn racism and white hate groups”

      Lie.

      See, you would have more credibility as a troll if you didn’t constantly lie.

      Has Biden condemned BLM yet? You know, that Marxist organization burning down buildings and businesses and harassing other people in restaurants?

    627. jason says:

      Chuckie will give him permission to vote for ACB if the result is inevitable.

      This is how these frauds operate.

    628. Tina says:

      The NY Times did not understand trumps tax return.

      He paid Over $7 million in 2017 due to the AMT.

      The artice is at breitbart.

    629. Tina says:

      I cannot attach the link. My post with it is eaten.

      Breitbart News
      @BreitbartNews
      ·
      1h
      CARNEY: The New York Times’ claim that President Donald Trump paid just $750 in federal income taxes in 2016 and 2017 is wrong, based on a flawed understanding of how taxes are paid.

    630. Tina says:

      But he was subject to the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT), a parallel tax system aimed at making sure wealthy people cannot use deductions to eliminate their tax liability altogether. According to the Times, “the A.M.T. formula disallowed $45 million in losses that Mr. Trump had carried over from prior years.”

      As a result, Trump was left with an AMT bill of $7,435,857, according to the Times.

      The business credit cannot be used to get a refund; it can only be applied against taxes owed. Mr. Trump had more than enough to cancel out his $7,435,857 tax bill. But on the Form 3800 for the General Business Credit, his accountants subtracted $750 from his allowable credit. Why they did that is not clear. But the result was a total federal income tax liability of $750.

      In other words, Trump paid the full amount of his taxes but spent $7,435,107 of his tax credit and $750 of cash. Both cash and the credit are government liabilities that the U.S. government accepts as payment for taxes. Paying the credit is not the equivalent of not paying taxes.

    631. jason says:

      he mood sure is somber around here. ”

      It was worse in 2016.

      Heck, Robbie was projecting a 7 seat loss in the Senate and that Hillary would win Indiana. And he is a “conservative”.

      Roadkill Maggot said GA and AZ were a slam dunk, Hillary was looking good in TX.

    632. jason says:

      CARNEY: The New York Times’ claim that President Donald Trump paid just $750 in federal income taxes in 2016 and 2017 is wrong, based on a flawed understanding of how taxes are paid.”

      I am sure the MSM will run apologies tonight.

    633. jason says:

      The NYT probably hired a moonbat tax expert to analyze the return.

      They got what they paid for.

    634. Phil says:

      This election is really simple to me. Clear as a bell. The electorate is divided by class this cycle – to an extent it’s never been divided in any other historical presidential election.

      Biden is running better in the upper class suburbs throughout the country. Suburbs of DC, Philly, Chicago, Atlanta, Denver, Detroit…..pretty much coast to coast he is padding Hillary’s suburban margins.

      This is being counter balanced by Trump’s gains with working class voters – and not only white working class voters. It’s gains with black and Hispanic working class workers as well.

      That’s the election in a nutshell. It ain’t rocket science. It really isn’t.

      The key state of Pa is going to be ground zero on election night. It will be the numbers of upper class suburban voters gain gained by Biden in Delaware, Montgomery, Chester, counties vs the gains Trump has made in working class counties such as Erie and Lackawanna.

      Watch that math on election night and you have your winner.

      Simple.

    635. jason says:

      Dang, Gatortroll told us today the election was over. Can someone tell Biden’s campaign?

      “Previously, Biden’s team had downplayed the fact that Biden wasn’t doing door to door canvassing like the Trump team. Joe Biden’s campaign manager, Jen O’Malley Dillon, told reporters in the middle of September, “While you might hear our opponents spend a lot of time talking about the millions of door knocks or attempts that they’re making week to week, those metrics actually don’t have any impact on reaching voters.” The Biden team hadn’t knocked on any doors since March while the Trump team has been doing millions a week for months. The Biden team had just been doing phone outreach.

      Even Joe Scarborough reported that the Trump people were “all over the place” while the Biden people “are nowhere.”

      Well, check this report today from the AP.

      Suddenly, the Biden team is launching canvassing operations across multiple battleground states.”

    636. Phil says:

      Hell, what do you think this stupid sudden concern over “condemning white supremest groups” came from all of a sudden? You think Biden’s MSM puppets like the networks and NYT would be touting this BS if they weren’t bleeding support among blacks?

    637. PhilSaw says:

      660: And those states are MI, PA, NH and NV, where slo jo is supposed to have 8-10 point leads.

      Ha ha

    638. Tina says:

      The presstitutes really beclowned themselves, Phil.

      Faux Fox Roberts destroyed his credibility with his meltdown.

    639. Robbie says:

      jason says:
      October 1, 2020 at 8:47 pm
      It is nice to see you all turning talk toward 2024 and how to win elections again.”

      This is disheartening.

      The troll obviously has not read my posts.

      All the marbles are in this election.

      Anyone looking to 2024 is a moron.

      – You’re a broken record.

      After Obama won in 2008, all was lost. It wasn’t.

      After Obama won in 2012, all was lost. It wasn’t.

      If Trump loses in 2020, you’ll say all is lost. It won’t be.

    640. Robbie says:

      jason says:
      October 1, 2020 at 9:50 pm
      he mood sure is somber around here. ”

      It was worse in 2016.

      Heck, Robbie was projecting a 7 seat loss in the Senate and that Hillary would win Indiana. And he is a “conservative”.

      – And you were talking about sunshine and rose in in the leadup to 2018 and Republicans lost 40 seats. A number, by the way, I suggested was possible in October 2017.

    641. Tina says:

      Can we get a China virus update from you?

    642. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      660. No, I told you weeks ago the election was over. Actually, we could go back to the moment Trump was the candidate for reelection. America hates him. He’s gone.

    643. Phil says:

      Tina, outside of occasionally watching Tucker’s monologue I never watch Fox News coverage any longer. Never. The Murdock kids have turned theIr news dept into CNN lite. Wallace, Cavuto, Breir are Never Trumpers and just piss me off. I won’t remain part of their core audience if they are going to piss on me every day. I can get that watching any old MSM. Roberts dropping the mask today doesn’t surprise me one bit.

    644. Proud Obamacon says:

      JUST.SHUT.UP.MAN

      Well DAMM! Leave it to Joe Biden of all people to go viral. I ordered my shirt today https://www.amazon.com/Will-You-Shut-Man-Biden/dp/B08KHNZN6P/ref=sr_1_50?dchild=1&keywords=shut+up+man+shirt&qid=1601605000&sr=8-50

      Orange Loooosah going down big time. The long nightmare is just about over.

      #BLUE.WAVE.COMING!
      #SHUT.UP.MAN
      #USA.USA.USA

    645. Tina says:

      Biden came in for some rough treatment in the first presidential debate

      https://thecritic.co.uk/trump-is-waging-asymmetric-warfare-and-its-working/

    646. phoenixrisen says:

      N/T and no gator troll, we’re not somber. We’re just silently amused at your posts.

    647. Proud Obamacon says:

      Phil getting upset when news outlets actually . uh you know . report the news.

      Even Faux News knows whats going down. They getting ready for post-Orange times.

      Faux trying not to go down with the ship. But i give yall credit, yall goin down with the ship. I commend that. Yall irrelevant now. Yall exposed yo-selves as pro-fascist, pro-authoritarian, anti-Democracy and pro-Socialist. There’s no going back. yall destroyed conservatism. Own it

      #RESIST!
      #JUST.SHUT.UP.MAN

    648. Scooterboy says:

      Baris has said that most pollsters are basing their polls off of a record 165-180 million turnout.. He is predicting around 145 million.

      Obama had one of the largest ground operations in history and didn’t turn out that kind of electorate.

      What in the world makes someone think Biden will turn out that kind of electorate, with absolutely no ground game, and being behind hugely in the enthusiasm gap, in almost every single poll?

    649. lisab says:

      Roadkill Maggot said GA and AZ were a slam dunk, Hillary was looking good in TX.
      ——————

      they actually said utah was in play

    650. zortilonrel says:

      I got what you mean , regards for posting.Woh I am delighted to find this website through google. “Delay is preferable to error.” by Thomas Jefferson.