2020 EV WATCH
Trump : 187
Biden : 351
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2020 SENATE WATCH
GOP : 48
DEM : 50
IND : 2
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    Biden Leads Trump by 2% in NC and 1% in FL

    Better numbers for Donald Trump this morning in polls from ABC News and The Washington Post in North Carolina as well as the University of North Florida in Florida.

    PRESIDENT – NORTH CAROLINA (ABC/WaPo)
    Joe Biden (D) 50%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 48%

    US SENATE – NORTH CAROLINA (ABC/WaPo)
    Cal Cunningham (D) 49%
    Thom Tillis (R-inc) 47%

    PRESIDENT – FLORIDA (UNF)
    Joe Biden (D) 48%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 47%

    The NC poll was done October 12-17 among 646 likely voters. The FL poll was done October 12-16 among 863 likely voters.

    Posted by Dave at 9:41 am
    Filed under: General | Comments (609)

    609 Responses to “Biden Leads Trump by 2% in NC and 1% in FL”

    1. Hugh says:

      Nc now confirmed it’s in trumps column and Tillis will win. At least by 4 points.

      Chump chump!!

    2. WizardofCozz says:

      If ABC/WaPo is this close then we can assume trump is ahead!!

    3. PhilS says:

      “Nationally Trump vs. Biden Tightens, Starts to Look a Lot Like 2016”

      The pollsters are starting to tighten. The race has been static.

    4. michael corleone says:

      On Pennsylvania – I think, but I am not sure, that the PAGOP has 25 days to file a motion for rehearing on the denial of the stay. See Supreme Court rule 44. If so they should do so next Monday

    5. Gordon Allen says:

      Great polls from ABC/Washington Post. Clear evidence Trump is in good shape in NC and Florida if that’s the best they can do for Biden.

    6. mnw says:

      corleone

      Why bother? You think the same judges are going to rule differently? Have you noticed how often SCOTUS grants such motions? About as often as I win the Powerball lottery.

      I mean no offense, btw. Just saying.

    7. michael corleone says:

      Mnw – You file precisely because you expect the judges to vote the same way. We only lost because the court deadlocked 4-4 and Roberts joined the liberals (a 4-4 ruling affirms the decision below by PA Supreme Court automatically). ACB joins the court most likely next Monday. She’s our potential fifth vote.

    8. Hugh says:

      Don’t forget acb.

    9. MrVito says:

      EV now 63.2-22.7% R in Sumter this morning.

    10. Smack says:

      Republicans are coming home late…just like in 2016.

      GOP ground game vs no ground game of Biden’s = 4 more years.

    11. Stonewall DW says:

      ARIZONA – Big Data Poll

      Trump 49
      Biden 44

      Oct 14-19

    12. JeffP says:

      DW watching Baris live…did you see the jump he was freaking out about the Trump +9 LOL?

    13. MrVito says:

      Tipp poll in 2016 was Clinton+1 at this many days before election… went up to +4 and then back to +1 going into the final week.

    14. Stonewall DW says:

      16 – he was talking about the last day of the poll results. Probably a result of Trump’s rallies in AZ.

    15. JeffP says:

      TIPP back to reality…at -2 could still be electoral win for DJT.

    16. Waingro says:

      Ras without the Ras has Biden up 1 in Ohio.

    17. Hugh says:

      Based on yesterday results biden may be on his way to losing washoe county in nv. Maybe in a couple days we will have big. Chump chump for nv.

    18. Hugh says:

      Maybe ras should stick to their knitting

    19. PhilS says:

      ras had biden +4 in Ohio a few weeks ago.

    20. Tina says:

      Kurt Schlichter
      @KurtSchlichter
      · 19m
      Remember to Toobin Test your computer camera before you Bulwark your Kristol.???????

    21. Actually the IBD number is exactly the popular vote margin in 2016. Once more indication we’re at 2016 two weeks earlier.

    22. Florida Guy says:

      Can someone post the link to Nate Silver’s 400-EV projection?

      -FloG

    23. MrVito says:

      Sumter now 66.1-20.5% R.

      Did Wasserman crap his pants yet?

    24. Baris says:

      Told ya! So did I deliver for you or not?

      Share my poll to all of the networks and make it go viral. Change the narrative and kick some liberal butt.

      Send money and I’ll show polls of Trump ahead in Minnesota and Nevada. Send money now.

      Trump 2020

    25. Sy says:

      “Sumter now 66.1-20.5% R.

      Did Wasserman crap his pants yet?”

      Can I have a link?

    26. Stonewall DW says:

      Sumter voted 68/29 for Trump over Hillary in 2016.

      So it is a bit odd that Dem returns are only 20.5%.

    27. MrVito says:

      Sumter last ten minutes…. 104R voters and 11D voters.

    28. MrVito says:

      In Most Florida counties, we have an awesome real-time system that went in last cycle.

      https://www.sumterelections.org/

      Scroll down and select party and type. Today Sumter started early in person, so it is all from today.

      Current vote today is 1114-311 GOP

      Updates every 10 minutes…. you can do this with most of our counties.

    29. MrVito says:

      By the way, this was an easy way to tell Broward was up to no good in 2018. They were 100% in real time and then dropped it to like 66% after it became clear how many votes they were going to need… I stated it at the time, but I don’t know that anyone else picked up on it.

    30. SoHope says:

      Ugh…black font on dark blue background how the heck they expect people to read that

    31. MrVito says:

      Mine is on white, SoHope. I’m using iPad?

    32. SoHope says:

      Switched to desktop version…its better

    33. MrVito says:

      42 ok… so you can see now it’s 69-19% GOP today.

    34. Scooterboy says:

      Doesn’t Sumpter include the Villages? If that’s correct, it doesn’t appear Trump is doing poorly with Seniors.

    35. MrVito says:

      Yeah, it’s The Villages.

    36. Scooterboy says:

      It appears the Biden Golf Cart parade didn’t stoke turnout.

    37. MrVito says:

      BARR!

      NPR
      @NPR
      · 11m
      The Justice Department has filed an antitrust lawsuit against Google for allegedly abusing its power and dominance over smaller rivals.

      It is the most significant action the federal government has taken against a tech company in two decades.
      https://trib.al/1Th089X

    38. MrVito says:

      I use Firefox and DuckDuckGo…. got tired of handing over my info to google in exchange for biased search results and a load of nothing else.

    39. Stonewall DW says:

      Florida is not in play. Its just not. You don’t go from winning the state in 2016 even though Dems have a 360k party registration advantage to LOSING the state in 2020 when the party reg gap was reduced to just 134k, and there are 70k new voters from Venezuela expected to break 70/30 for Trump, and with Trump polling better in Miami-Dade than 2016.

    40. Greymarch says:

      Trump was in NV yesterday. He’s been there several times the past few months. Hilary won NV in 2016. What is Trump’s team seeing in NV that makes him think he can win it? What is going on in NV?

      Is Trump simply trying for NV because he needs a different route to 270EV if he loses PA, or is the race in NV truly close? If it’s close in NV, why is it close?

    41. MrVito says:

      Several Venezuelans moved into the neighborhood Suburban neighborhood I just left. They are professionals starting families. Met the ones across the street and next door…. great people.

    42. BayernFan says:

      That Sumter vote may look good for Trump, but it may also be that registered republicans are voting for Biden.

      I wonder if the recent tightening in the polls is the product of the Hunter China scandal and people realising that Biden Isn’t even campaigning anymore.

    43. mnw says:

      15 Stonewall:

      What’s a “Big Data poll,” pls?

      16/19 Jeff & Stonewall:

      “+9” WHERE, pls? AZ? Nationally?

      Thx.

    44. Stonewall DW says:

      Lets see, Sumter Republicans voting for Biden…

      …they voted Trump in 2016, and Trump did everything they hoped he would do, but now they are eager to go vote early for a senile clown who can barely function, who has a platform the exact opposite of what they voted for in 2016.

    45. MrVito says:

      53 Snicker.

    46. Stonewall DW says:

      54…

      https://www.bigdatapoll.com/

      …the AZ poll was revealed on Baris’ show today. He is still compiling the remaining data before uploading the final data sheet.

      But he said it looks like the final results will be Trump 49 Biden 44.

    47. Hugh says:

      I wish I could remember where I read it but good money is to be made on predictit. Apparently way more bets are being placed for republicans with fewer but larger bets for Dems. The thought is that for relatively small amounts of money Dems are trying to keep the narrative going that biden is killing it. You can actually see it in the movements. Slow movements in rep favor then a big jump for the dem. Then repeat.

    48. Baris says:

      What’s a “Big Data poll,” pls?

      That’s my poll. I am the gold standard.

      Can I have some money? I promise to deliver polls you will love in Minnesota and Nevada. Hell, I’ll even let you tell me the margins you want.

    49. Stonewall DW says:

      Funny how trolls keep mocking the ONLY pollster to get Wisconsin exactly right in 2016, and whose polls have been spot on.

    50. Scooterboy says:

      Cotto said he was in the Villages the other day and was astounded at the amount of Seniors not wearing masks.
      I doubt they are voting for Biden.

    51. MrVito says:

      Dave just disappeared the spam… so now the post numbers are all different.

    52. Baris says:

      Someones mocking my polls? Damn liberals.

      Just for that, I’ll go back to my original margin in Arizona. 51-44 Trump.

      Share it and make it go viral. Defeat liberals.

    53. Scooterboy says:

      In 2016 Trump never led in the betting markets until the returns starting coming in on Election Day.

    54. mnw says:

      50 Stonewall

      Thx.

    55. Smack says:

      Sumter early voting today

      GOP 70%
      DEM 18%

    56. Hugh says:

      Sounds like that deserves a big. Chump Chump!!

      I’ll be voting in broward later today or tomorrow. We are going to crush the dems.

    57. Sy says:

      “Sumter early voting today

      GOP 70%
      DEM 18%“

      Holy cow!! That’s 52%

      In 2016, the margin was 29%.

    58. Smack says:

      Sumter Early Voting today.

      GOP 68.48%

      DEM 18.22%

    59. mnw says:

      There have been a million stories over the past 3-4 months about how Trump is weak with senior citizens this year, compared to 2016. These stories usually attributed this drop-off to the beer virus.

      Perhaps Sumter County in FL will test the “Trump drop-off among seniors” reports, & give an early indication whether these poll reports are true.

      We’ve reached a point now at which actual data means more than polls, imo.

    60. Smack says:

      Do we have another Florida County link where we can keep updated votes per party registration on early voting?

      You have another link please provide.

      Thanks.

    61. mnw says:

      64

      DEMs wrote off “white working class men” a long time ago, I believe.

      They know that demographic is hopeless for them, & that it’s the core of Trump’s base, I think.

    62. Tina says:

      BajiRao
      @nthpersonal
      Replying to
      @umichvoter99
      GOD DAMN, WE’RE DONE. My fellow Dems time to pack up from Florida and save the rust belt. We still have a chance. Forget a 400 landside and focus ALL energy on winnables for a 270+ victory.
      9:03 AM · Oct 20, 2020·Twitter for Android

    63. marc says:

      mnw almost 500 thousand didn’t vote in 16, though and they are very unlikely to show up in polling.

    64. marc says:

      500,000 in Wisconsin alone, now take that’s cross the country and the numbers more than make up the loss of whites women

    65. Jeff G. says:

      mnw, the Republican Party by its leadership action for a generation essentially wrote off working-class whites until Trump came along.

    66. mnw says:

      marc

      I read the article, & I took your point.

      I’would be curious to know if the 500000 are all registered to vote even? In my grassroots campaigning experience, unregistered voters NEVER register.

      If most oral of the 500000 ARE registered, it would be wunnerful to have some data as to how many are voting this year.

    67. Boog says:

      I was going to head out during lunch and do my early vote today, but when i checked the early vote locations, it showed that the nearest locations to me (all in the exurbs) have a wait of one hour or more. (Wait times are shown in the link)

      https://ocfelections.com/early-voting-locations

      Funny thing is, the inner city or more urban locations have wait times which are 30 minutes or less, or 15 minutes or less. Wonder what that means.

    68. Jeff G. says:

      Some posters here have famously decried Trump’s failure to “expand his base.” He didn’t need to expand his base; he just needed to get the rest of it out to vote.

    69. SoHope says:

      Dems only casting 17.6% Sumter early vote today.

    70. Jeff G. says:

      mnw, They are registering. They saw that Trump wasn’t full of sheot like all other politicians. He kept his promises. Now they want him to be reelected.

    71. Justin says:

      75 – I hope you are right, but we are not seeing a surge in first time voters in the Target Smart data.

    72. mnw says:

      marc

      One last thing: Did u realize that nasty, snarky article in NY Mag is from 2019, i.e., about a year ago?

      To me, the article illustrates the potential of Trump rallies to help Trump with infrequent voters and/or unregistered citizens.

      The writer is right about the natural decrease in white voters each election cycle.

    73. marc says:

      It’s the untold story of this campaign, Trump has been registering these voters for the last 4 years in a targeted
      Marketing campaign to I.d the type of person who would be a natural supporter of him. Social media post, sports, UFC fights, WWF, etec

    74. PhilS says:

      “Trump’s failure to “expand his base.””

      Huh?

      How about Hispanics and AA’s?

      Now, we won’t know the actual values, but at least the polls have indicated that Trump has greatly expended his base.

      Those who decry are stupid.

    75. SoHope says:

      Florida in-person EV: Day 2 as of 11:40 AM

      Rep 47,943
      Dem 37,917
      NPA/Other 16,993
      Total 102,853

      Cumulative total:

      Rep 200,986
      Dem 190,532
      NPA/Other 75,220
      Total 466,738

    76. mnw says:

      marc

      Your posts are interesting & well-taken.

      Personally, I discovered over & over that trying to get unregistered citizens to register to vote is the hardest, least rewarding job in politics. I concluded it was a waste of resources, but those were micro-campaigns, & Trump’s team has probably gamed it out.

      The FL data is most encouraging. The DEMs have been preaching early voting as THE winning strategy for Biden all year long! PERHAPS Trump campaign can afford to shift some resources from The Sunshine State to the Rust Belt now?

    77. Jeff G. says:

      PhilS, that, too. Polls confirm an uptick in his share of AA and Hispanic vote despite a five-year media campaign to label him the most racist politician in U.S. history.

    78. Robbie says:

      BayernFan says:
      October 20, 2020 at 11:46 am
      I wonder if the recent tightening in the polls is the product of the Hunter China scandal and people realising that Biden Isn’t even campaigning anymore

      – My read on the poll tightening is more about the fact Trump’s dismal first debate performance and subsequent hospitalization have worn off and he’s moving back to his pre-debate polling position.

      Before the debate, RCP showed about a 6 point deficit. After the debate, the deficit moved towards 9 points. That post debate bounce for Biden seems to be gone.

    79. MrVito says:

      As of Sunday, half of those who have voted in 2020 but didn’t vote in 2016 are noncollege whites…. 3million voters.

    80. Robbie says:

      One thought that I’ve seen on Twitter and makes some sense. In 2016, Trump benefitted from the third parties. It lowered the levels needed to win a state. Right now, the interest in third parties is pretty low and how that vote is redistributed can be pretty impactful in states where the margin might be close.

    81. PhilS says:

      Your read is nonsense, as usual.

    82. Waingro says:

      Your garbage lunch poll dump of the day:

      Nate Cohn
      @Nate_Cohn
      Democrats gain in Georgia Senate races as the presidential contest remains deadlocked, per new NYT/Siena poll:
      Biden 45, Trump 45
      Ossoff 43, Perdue 43, Hazel 4
      Warnock 32, Loeffler 23, Collins 17
      Warnock+4 v. both Collins and Warnock

    83. JeffP says:

      85…a factor for sure…I think Trump gets most of those Johnson & McMuffin votes. Also some NeverTrumpers like Shapiro will help some too. I think if anything Biden will have a harder time adding to his base. This overall is a base turnout election…this is where ground game helps.

    84. mnw says:

      The Libertarian candidate (Johnson) was a lot STRONGER in 2016. Johnson is a former governor with some name rec. One would think a drop-off in the L vote would help Trump.

    85. Big Joe says:

      There was a debate in Georgia last night for the Senate-special.

      Warnock has secured a top two finish. The biggest cliffhanger will be who joins him as a finalist, Loeffler or Collins.

      Most of the fireworks from the debate were Loeffler vs Collins. Polls have shown them neck and neck.

      Interesting stuff but won’t matter. There’s always talk of how a rough jungle primary might splinter the vote. I don’t see it. Republicans will unite and Democrats will not vote in a runoff. A Republican will hold this seat.

      BJ

    86. MrVito says:

      In the non-presidential Aug primary here in FL the vbm numbers were as follows:

      GOP: 807999
      Dem: 1182579

      Through yesterday, the general election vbm is:
      GOP: 812363
      Dem: 1293994

      Is that the surge Dems hoped for coming into in person voting got the GE? We’ll see…

    87. Jeff G. says:

      85. Robbie the numbers contradict that assessment. In five states, NM, NV, CO, MN, and NH, the Trump vote plus other conservative third-party votes (Libertarian being the largest) were greater than Hillary’s vote plus leftist third-party votes. That did not happen the other way around in any state Hillary won.

    88. Scooterboy says:

      Cotto- “ GOPers are now only nine points down to Dems in Palm Beach County’s in-person early voting returns.”

    89. Hugh says:

      Here is another thought.. republicans who thought trump was an aszclown and not really a conservative voted for the libertarian. I know two of those, but no Dems voting for the libertarian. If I post that on twitter does it make me right??

    90. Jeff G. says:

      92. Correction: Should end with: “… in any state Trump won.”

    91. Jeff G. says:

      A lot of those Gary Johnson probably wouldn’t have voted at all, but a substantial number would have voted for Trump without Johnson on the ballot.

    92. Tina says:

      Duh Globalisfs.

      No thanks. And dumb by China Biden

      Krystal Ball
      @krystalball
      ·
      6h
      People Biden is vetting: John Kasich, Meg Whitman, Jeff Flake, Charlie Baker, Charlie Dent

      People Biden is not vetting: Anyone who endorsed Bernie Sanders

    93. Waingro says:

      Stella 2020
      @stella2020woof
      ·
      2m
      Senate (Minnesota)

      Smith (D) 48%
      Lewis (R) 44%
      O’Connor (O) 3%
      Steinberg (O) 1%

      10/12-10/15 by Change Research (C-)
      1021 LV

    94. Scooterboy says:

      Robert Barnes- “ More evidence of polling error. NYT poll of Georgia says Democrats should have about a 25-point edge in modeled voters (including D-leaning independents) amongst the early vote to date. Problem? According to the Democratic vote file vendor, their edge is a whopping 1 point.

    95. Florida Guy says:

      27. “Sumter now 66.1-20.5% R.

      Did Wasserman crap his pants yet?”

      Wasserman is smart but that was a STUPID article. The Villages is only part of Sumter. The whole county is like +30,000 GOP.

      Give me a break!

      There are always suckers predicting not just loss but major structural change, like a tilt in the axis.

      -FloG

    96. Greymarch says:

      #98: Last week we saw a poll that had Lewis within 6 in MN. Now a poll has him within 4 in MN.

      The senate races in MN and MI have tightened. There will be plenty of fun senate races to watch election night!

    97. Chicon says:

      If voters in AZ, MN and MI choose to elect Trump, it will be to accomplish his agenda (few are voting for him solely because they don’t want Biden). I think that bodes well for the Senatorial candidates in those states.

    98. MrVito says:

      From the time polls opened this morning until now, the voting in Sumter and Orange(!!) have canceled each other out.

    99. Country Dick Montana says:

      https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/stock-market-best-election-outcome-may-not-be-gridlock

      So investors are saying we want a DEM sweep because we want the Gubmint Cheese.

      I am sure that they will enjoy the regulatory and tax environment that comes after.

      We are President Paul now.

    100. Waingro says:

      “Wasserman is smart but that was a STUPID article.”

      What did his article say?

    101. Gordon Allen says:

      According to JP Morgan.

    102. jaichind says:

      106. Does not make sense. Right now the market goes up when there are signs the stimulus will go through and goes down when there is less of a chance of a deal. BUT if a Dem clean sweep in Nov is a sure thing then early Feb there will be a stimulus plan passed anyway so why would the market need to go down.

    103. lisab says:

      Florida is not in play. Its just not. — DW
      ——————————–

      it depends on the assumptions you make

      i tend to agree with DW that FL is looking good for the gop right now

      but that assumes republicans are voting republican.

      if more republican women are voting for biden than voted for hillary, biden **could** get florida

      it is just unlikely right now

    104. lisab says:

      What is Trump’s team seeing in NV that makes him think he can win it?
      ——————-

      the pandemic has crushed tourism

      the workers are unhappy

    105. Stonewall DW says:

      110 – if my uncle was born without a ***** then he would by my aunt.

    106. Chicon says:

      Vito, the following is from the TargetSmart site regarding FL….

      Registered party 49%(D)-30%(R)-20%(Unaffiliated)
      Modeled party 53%(D)-40%(R)-7%(U)

      Do you know why these would be different? Is the modeled a guess as to how the actual votes are?

      If so, they believe that the Unaffiliated are going for Trump about 10-3/4. Is that what you would get from this info?

    107. Stonewall DW says:

      The party ID gap in florida dropped to a scant 134k, down from 365k or whatever it was. If these people were so energized to vote Biden, why register as a Republican to do so?

    108. Chicon says:

      112 – DW, I’d say if my uncle was born without a Toobin then he’s be my aunt….

    109. lisab says:

      One thought that I’ve seen on Twitter and makes some sense. In 2016, Trump benefitted from the third parties.
      ———————–

      the libertarians in 2016 were much stronger than the greens

      if anything 2020 is better for trump a small %

    110. MrVito says:

      113 Yup… those numbers don’t include yesterday either.

    111. Tgca says:

      So I’ve been thinking about poor Toobin today. Terrible way to end a career as this is how he will always be remembered – as the jerk-off. If he were Japanese, clearly, he would be expected to commit suicide.

      I think – how could he have avoided this? In essence, no one ever wants to be in this position. Humiliating and the butt or scrotum of jokes for years to come.

      But then I thought. Wait! This only happened because we’re all in this remote world now and it could happen to any of us…riiiiight?

      So I came to the logical conclusion, we’re in a pandemic and the country is shut down forcing us to work alternatively so it became evident to me…It’s Trump’s Fault!!!

    112. Tina says:

      Exclusive: Biden Defector’s Emails Reveal Hunter’s Associates Viewed Direct ‘Pipeline’ to Administration as ‘Currency’

      https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/10/20/exclusive-biden-defectors-emails-reveal-hunters-associates-viewed-direct-pipeline-to-administration-as-currency/

    113. lisab says:

      DW,

      i agree florida is not looking good for dems. you have to believe that there has been a big shift among republicans (probably women), for dems to be happy with the current vote.

      probably women because fl women voted more for trump than women did nationally in 2016 according to the exits, so in theory biden could swing some women there.

      i just would not bet on it.

    114. Tina says:

      Piglosi optimistic on stimulus. We will see.

      Yeah, her poll numbers went down and she was to blame.

    115. Annie says:

      I think it’s more likely that Democrats will be voting GOP, than the other way around (women included).

    116. Stonewall DW says:

      “you have to believe that there has been a big shift among republicans (probably women), for dems to be happy with the current vote.”

      I don’t have to believe that. There isn’t evidence for it. Its not showing up in the Big Data Poll of FL, and in PA, Trump was doing just as well in the Philly suburbs as he did in 2016, and in fact is flipping Chester county in 2020 poll compared to 2016.

    117. Annie says:

      Tgca…It is a warning tale, reminding people working online not to pull a Toobin.

    118. SoHope says:

      Washtenaw County issues two-week stay home order for U-M students

    119. lisab says:

      I think it’s more likely that Democrats will be voting GOP, than the other way around (women included).
      —————————

      that is possible but not the narrative

      the narrative is that suburban republican women are voting for biden

      florida is one of the few places where trump did ok with women in 2016

      i am **NOT** saying republican women are voting for biden,

      i am saying that is the only way a dem could be happy with the current florida vote. you would have to think women are voting like it was 2018 not 2016

    120. lisab says:

      I don’t have to believe that.
      ——————————

      again, i am **NOT** saying you should believe that

      i am saying that if you are a dem and want biden to win,

      and you think florida is going well

      you would have to believe that

    121. Stonewall DW says:

      128 – I think mostly Dems just look at Quinnipiac or Siena/NY Times and think, oh we are good. And don’t think any deeper than that.

    122. Stonewall DW says:

      126 – I actually thought of this a few days back, that when election day comes, some of these battleground states with Dem governors might just say, due to Covid-19, we simply have to shut it down and there will be no in person voting. So if you didn’t vote in advance, you are out of luck.

    123. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      46. “I wonder if the recent tightening in the polls is the product of the Hunter China scandal and people realising that Biden Isn’t even campaigning anymore.”

      I believe it is. Joe Biden’s hands were just caught in the cookie jar that his son Hunter was filling. The Bidens are as sleazy as the Clintons. After learning that Hunter Biden was following his father and collecting cash, we should have realized that Joe Biden was in on the scheme. Its like the Clinton Foundation as a cash cow for the Clinton political agenda. Never underestimate the sliminess of the Clinton/Biden cabal, or their stupidity in allowing compromising information to be placed on laptops of questionable people.

    124. lisab says:

      I think mostly Dems just look at Quinnipiac or Siena/NY Times and think, oh we are good.
      —————————-

      i agree, but if you loo at the actual vote

      republican areas of florida ARE voting. this is NOT what a democrat wants unless you think you are getting crossover votes.

      remember the plan …

      on election day you spread rumours that the dems are killing it at the polls

      you send people like robbie out to say how bad the exits are for trump

      you convince the people in the panhandle and western/central florida that it is not worth going to the polls

      but you cannot do that if the panhandle

    125. lisab says:

      #132

      ** but you cannot do that if the scarable voters in the panhandle/central florida

      have ALREADY voted **

    126. Tina says:

      Yikes

      Washington Examiner
      @dcexaminer
      · 17m
      Biden economic plan conceals middle class tax hike in form of higher prices for basic goods, study says https://washex.am/35eUaSZ

    127. Annie says:

      Tina – The WSJ estimates that “Bidenomics” would cost average American households about $6,500.

    128. PresidentPaul! says:

      “Adam Schiff is seriously the most pathological liar in all American politics that I’ve seen in all of my time covering politics and journalism. He just fabricates accusations at the drop of a hat the way that other people change underwear.”

      -Glen Greenwald

      https://twitter.com/SteveGuest/status/1318372092136521732?s=20

    129. Stonewall DW says:

      “The WSJ estimates that “Bidenomics” would cost average American households about $6,500.”

      That’s pretty rough considering Biden already has EVERY AMERICAN on the hook for $700,000 to pay for the new green deal designed to destroy the energy sector.

    130. Big Joe says:

      I’ve made several attempts to understand TargetSmart’s “modeled party.” It seems like some sort of AI / machine learning algorithm that assigns each voter a score from 0-100.

      0-34: Republican
      35-65: Unaffiliated
      66-100: Democrat

      They use actual surveys to create and train the model. That’s basic machine learning, so that’s fine. They now know how to classify a voter based on information about that voter (age, race, gender, etc).

      However its not clear to me how they would obtain this information in real-time as votes are being cast.

      For example, I early-voted in Georgia last week. I see that Georgia does not report early vote counts based on party registration. So how would TargetSmart be able to classify any of the votes? Admittedly, I’ve only done a quick scan of their site, maybe I’ve missed something.

      It could be a fun data science exercise to predict outcomes but the underlying model has to be somewhat sound.

      BJ

    131. Waingro says:

      Uh oh…

      Paul Sperry
      @paulsperry_
      ·
      1m
      BREAKING: “Democrats are poring over early vote totals, circulating anxiety-ridden campaign memos & bracing for a long two weeks,” POLITICO is reporting, as Republicans take lead among early & mail-in voting in Michigan & overwhelmingly in TX, as Dem youth vote crashes in PA & WI

    132. Waingro says:

      According to the wet bedders at RRH, the Iowa Senate race is OVAH. Ernst is done or something.

    133. Annie says:

      The “youths” never vote in the numbers Democrats hope…that, and not all younger voters are Democrats – many are Libertarian, Independent, and, yes, even Republican. If the Democrats’ idea was to use covid as an excuse to have mail-in-ballots, they failed to anticipate that covid is also keeping college students and those under age 30 with job losses living with their parents. So, no “peer pressure” to go vote, including for old Joe. If anything, they might get influenced to vote like their parents.

    134. lisab says:

      Republicans take lead among early & mail-in voting in Michigan
      ————-

      this is exactly why fl is disappointing for biden, because it would have more than negated mi

      now he needs NC.

      biden can NOT lose mi or wi or mn

      unless he flips fl or nc or az

      this is assuming biden wins pa

    135. lisab says:

      remember, if biden flips pa

      but loses

      mi, wi, or mn

      he still loses.

      and vbm in wi and mi is looking horrible for dems

    136. MrVito says:

      According to the MinnPost poll that is Biden+5 and Smith+4, and

      62% of Biden voters say they already voted compared with 15% of Trump voters.

      62% of D and D learners
      26% of Pure Ind
      16% of R and R learners

    137. Phil says:

      For what it’s worth, the main theme from Baris and Barnes yesterday was that people on both sides need to quit reading the early vote tea leaves. It’s misleading during a normal election year anyway and damn impossible to read in a year when the mail in vote is unprecedented. There is no baseline for the latter.

      Barnes even made the point that It’s better for Republicans to vote later because the Democrats won’t get a heads up on how many ballots they will need to throw in.

    138. Big Joe says:

      RIP Tony Lewis of the Outfield. Very underrated artist from the 80’s.

      These past few years have been tough for children of the 80’s. Upcoming years will be even tougher.

      BJ

    139. MrVito says:

      144 So if that poll were right, 66% of GOP will vote on Election Day, and only 19% of Dems in Minnesota.

    140. Tina says:

      Acb vote scheduled for Monday.

    141. mnw says:

      145 Phil

      I can’t follow Barnes’ logic there. He’s a smart man, but that’s too counter-intuitive for me to comprehend.

      Why wouldn’t 2016 be a baseline, even if there are a lot more VBM votes this year? It would still give a basis to compare the percentages for both parties, I would think.

      Also, I can’t get around the fact that the DEMs have been absolutely BEGGING their voters to VBM FOR MONTHS, while the GOP has not. So, therefore, if the DEMs aren’t cleaning the GOP’s clock on VBM, why isn’t that bad for the DEMs?

    142. Annie says:

      Tina – Cloture vote is scheduled for Sunday, too…earliest possible time under Senate rules.

    143. Chicon says:

      144 – TargetSmart has the modeled early vote as 49/29/33. Does this suggest that a lot of moderate registered Dems are voting early and voting for Trump and the Republican Senate candidate? Or does it suggest that the pollster got a sample with too many D’s and not enough I’s?

      I’m with Big Joe, something smells wrong about how TS is doing this fancy “modeling”.

    144. MrVito says:

      Joe Gabriel Simonson
      @SaysSimonson
      · 1h
      seems to be an open secret in media world that the wsj is working on a big hunter biden piece

    145. lisab says:

      So if that poll were right, 66% of GOP will vote on Election Day, and only 19% of Dems in Minnesota.
      ————————-

      the vbm in mn is huge

      but it is impossible to know how it is going

      who knows how many people in rural areas are vbm because of convenience rather than because “dems vote early and repubs vote on election day”

      there is snow on the ground here, so vbm is a real option for many people to avoid bad weather

      sooooooo … mn vbm is completely opaque. who knows who is voting or why?

    146. Annie says:

      Will Biden delay telling America whether he’d pack the court? What a stupid game he is playing…

    147. MikeP says:

      Hi.all,
      I I am not mistaken the Trump Rallies in the battleground states have included a 20+ dem reg.. They do not have to change party to VOTE R.. I my mind we could be getting more votes for the President than we realize

    148. Chicon says:

      I can follow Barnes’ logic on one aspect of early voting this year. He says to compare the actual EV numbers with this year’s polls to determine if the poll got a representative sample. See if the split of the D/R/I the pollster gets for EV or already voted matches the actual EV numbers.

    149. MikeP says:

      We will do EV tomorrow in the Houston area

    150. MrVito says:

      TargetSmart is a Dem Firm that uses a voter file. They have done this for several years, and they are being used by NBC. It isn’t that hard to model most voters from the voter file which has all kinds of info in it… they can use it to see all kinds of things you do online now.

      They know I’m registered Dem, but they also know where I live, my demography, what I buy, and my social media habits. They probably are more aware of my voting probability than I am.

    151. MrVito says:

      “ who knows how many people in rural areas are vbm because of convenience rather than because “dems vote early and repubs vote on election day”

      Just to be clear, the 66 and 19 numbers come from the poll.

    152. Waingro says:

      NORTH CAROLINA
      Biden 51% (+4)
      Trump 47%

      East Carolina University, LV, 10/15-18
      surveyresearch-ecu.reportablenews.com/pr/ecu-poll-bi…

    153. Chicon says:

      Hello MikeP. The population of D’s and I’s at Trump rallies indicates that some of those types will be voting for him. The question is whether there are many of them, or just a few. I suspect there’s quite a few.

    154. lisab says:

      i think mn will go for biden

      but i base than only on that mn hasn’t gone gop for almost 50 years, 1972 was the last time the gop won mn.

      that is the only reason. there is plenty of enthusiasm for trump, the dems burnt down minneapolis, the economy here is good, yada yada yada

      but 1972 is a long time ago

    155. lisab says:

      Just to be clear, the 66 and 19 numbers come from the poll.
      ———————–

      yeah, i believe you, i just don’t have even the slightest idea how people are voting …

      both campaigns are pretty silent

      except biden is running ads a lot on youtube, and trump’s rallies are on tv.

      when i say a lot of ads, i mean i often get 2 ads on youtube BEFORE i can even watch the video. one of the two will be a biden ad, the other a normal ad.

      otherwise it is pretty quiet here

    156. mnw says:

      I wonder if ACB’s confirmation & swearing in will move the needle at all.

      Btw, cutting Trump off in the last 2 minutes of the debate may be doing a FAVOR to team Orange, imo.

    157. Steant1965 says:

      Just FYI: The East Carolina University poll has it +3 Biden which would make an improvement of 1 for President Trump.

    158. Gordon Allen says:

      The Democrat’s need a Fox Biden plus 6 or a NBC/WSJ Biden plus 8to calm their jitters Probably being ordered as we spy. So far Trump approval is averaging about 1.5% better than last week,which ended with a Biden plus 5. Logically,that would translate to a Biden plus 4,or even 3,which definitely would set off alarm bells. But you never know.

    159. lisab says:

      i assume i am targeted by google/youtube

      because my search history is pretty liberal

      so i would be a good dem target by my search history.

    160. Tina says:

      53 percent say China Biden has conflict of interests involving Ukraine oversight.

      https://twitter.com/JustTheNews/status/1318620845724602374

    161. Big Joe says:

      #158, Mr. V-

      Do you know if there is historical data from 2016 and 2018 showing how well TargetSmart’s model did in those years?

      I see there’s a “This day in 2016/18” type bar graph but it would be better to see what they were predicting on election day of those years.

      The “This day in ..” graphs aren’t going to be meaningful due to the spike in mail ballots this year.

      BJ

    162. mnw says:

      I would pour sand in TargetSmart’s model, because they could tell I was a strong conservative Republican from my search history, but they would wrongly count me as an IL voter instead of a MO voter, I bet.

    163. WizardofCozz says:

      I have trouble believing with all of the evidence that Trump will lose in Ohio, NC, and FL, while AZ is looking very positive. Just have to get one of MN, WI, or PA. I like where we are at so far this election. Hopefully the positive EV news keeps coming.

    164. MrVito says:

      It’s a legitimate question to ask… what is more trustworthy?

      …what respondents say about themselves in a poll with a 99% rejection rate

      …how all people are actually expressing their preferences at the ballot box and online

      Suppose you are a registered D that voted In the D primary, but you always search for Ben Shapiro and like NRA posts.

    165. MrVito says:

      Now suppose you live in rural Michigan, have a fishing license, and subscribe to Hot Rod magazine.

    166. mnw says:

      Frank Luntz sez Trump needs “a clear knockout” at the debate to have any chance of catching Biden. Luntz says Trump is making a major strategic error to focus on the Hunter situation, fwiw.

    167. MrVito says:

      Uh… mnw, they know you vote in MO.

    168. MrVito says:

      Luntz believes Trump is down 10 points nationally, so…

    169. Stonewall DW says:

      “but 1972 is a long time ago”

      Ok, true, but to be fair, had Walter Mondale been from New York instead of Minnesota, the state would have gone for Reagan in 1984. But yes, your overall point is valid.

    170. dblaikie says:

      I believe the big story this week is not the polls even though they are all showing a tightening. In your to save a narrative that is crumbling by the day I have every confidence that a poll will come out from a major news outlet showing Biden at least 6 points up. This will give comfort even in the face of IBD’s showing a huge surge by Trump. IBC in 2016 had bragging rights for being accurate and I know it is driving terror into the dems hearts. If IBD is right and the vote were today Trump would win with the Electoral College. But that, as I say, is not the big news.

      The big news is that the Biden Campaign is shut down in order to avoid facing questions. They have lots of ads but no energy. All the energy and all the enthusiasm is on Trump’s side. That is a dangerous place for the Biden Camp to be in. So far it is the most important piece of data this week about the election.

    171. Chicon says:

      Luntz is a dope.

    172. dblaikie says:

      One of the smartest things the Trump political brain trust has done for the last 5 years is to ignore Frank Luntz. Who can forget his post at about 6pm four years proclaiming Hilary Clinton as President.

    173. Livinthedream says:

      the big shift to come is down ballot as republican challengers will push to have their DNC opponent take a stand on the Biden pay to play. It’s a lose-lose option for them as the hole deepens. Right now, part of the shutdown, is to figure out whether to stick with Joe.

    174. Country Dick Montana says:

      “seems to be an open secret in media world that the wsj is working on a big hunter biden piece”

      I will believe it when I see it. The WSJ has not had a peep about the Hunter Biden issues.

    175. Hugh says:

      In fairness mnw, I saw that interview or let’s say an interview with luntz where he said exactly that. I’m assuming that’s the same interview you are referring to and it was over a week ago. I am not sure he would say that today. However I do think he is a joke.

    176. Annie says:

      Luntz has one of the most obvious toupees ever. That said…Luntz is always telling people that voters want a politician that “says what he/she means, and means what he/she says.” Between Trump and Biden? I would think that would be an easy choice.

    177. dblaikie says:

      Well folks another important piece of real data (not polls). Guess who is heading for Pennsylvania for Slow Joe? It is Mr. Socialist himself Bernie! Now if Pa was safely in Biden’s camp wouldn’t they send Bernie to Michigan? We can safely say with both Barak and Bernie going to Pennsylvania there is a rescue mission going on.

    178. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      Gatormagoo troll is missing. Did he get eaten by a croc, or is it still dark in his timezone.

    179. mnw says:

      115 Vito

      I don’t see how they can know all my search engine & buying history in IL. & still know I’m the person with the same name that votes 400 miles away in another state.

      I’m not saying u r wrong, but… I doubt they have supernatural powers. If my name were “John A. Smith,” they could still figure out I’m the SAME “John A. Smith” in another state, where I have no online presence?

      On another topic, I wasn’t defending Luntz at all. I was just reporting what the man told The Daily Mail recently.

    180. mnw says:

      186 dbl

      Your logic seems compelling.

      Plus, those 2 birds can stir up OUR side, too. Double-edged sword. As if Trump sent out Newt Gingrich & Pat Buchanan.

    181. MrVito says:

      188 Did you ask for a ballot? Did it arrive at your address?Did you send it back? Then they know where you voted and where it was sent.

    182. Tina says:

      Quote Tweet

      Alex Thompson
      @AlxThomp
      · Oct 19
      The Biden digital camp says that they found Trump’s attacks on Biden’s mental acuity were hitting home w/ voters and responded by targeting voters w/ videos of Biden talking clearly and articulately, per @mviser
      https://washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-trump-campaign-disinformation/2020/10/18/99774228-0fdd-11eb-8074-0e943a91bf08_story.html

    183. mnw says:

      Vito

      OK, I guess u r right. I asked for a ballot; it arrived at my address in IL; & I sent it back to MO.

      This is Orwellian.

      On another topic, Michael Steele announced his support for Biden several weeks ago. I guess the MSM thought the story was so nice, they printed it twice?

    184. Stonewall DW says:

      What message could Bernie deliver to PA? He could tell them that rather than being employed they could watch as their jobs are sent back to China, so they can then get to stand on street corners holding up cardboard signs begging for money.

    185. MrVito says:

      “ This is Orwellian.”

      Yup.

    186. Robbie says:

      The issue of this election is the coronavirus and its effect on the economy. Trump’s message should be clear cut and simple.

      Trump will push relentlessly to get American life back to the way it was in February 2020.

      Biden will delay a return to normal by giving the doctors free reign to control every aspect of our lives.

      If you want schools and businesses fully reopened, vote for Trump.

      If you want years of online schooling, empty stadiums, restaurants that can’t stay in business, vote for Biden.

    187. MrVito says:

      “ and responded by targeting voters w/ videos of Biden talking clearly and articulately, per @mviser”

      Otherwise known as normal campaign ads?

    188. Tina says:

      I guess China Biden wrecked his digital ad gurus last Monday, when he held the disastrous Ohio event.

    189. Tina says:

      Great job, Governor Nuissance.

      .

      WDW News Today
      @WDWNT
      ·
      1h
      BREAKING: Disneyland President Responds to “Arbitrary” Theme Park Reopening Guidelines; Parks Will Remain Closed for Foreseeable Future, More Layoffs to Come

      https://wdwnt.news/20201020028

    190. mnw says:

      AWFUL lotta folks standing in a cold dark Erie, PA rain tonite.

      Wonder how many would get drenched, & chilled to the bone, to see 10% Joe?

    191. Smack says:

      Florida total votes cast (VBM+IPEV) per party registration as of noon today:

      Democrats: 1,613,078

      Republicans: 1,136,592

      Democrats lead (VBM+IPEV) = 476,486

      Democrats led by 478,692 by start of today.

      Democrats dream of leading by 650,000 before Election Day is becoming a nightmare.

      Florida is glowing Red in 2020.

    192. Stonewall DW says:

      Here is what Trump has going for him:

      1) Incumbency
      2) Successful first term, giving his base everything he promised them.
      3) 56% voters saying they are better off than 4 years ago.
      4) HUGE gains in battleground state new voter registrations. Gallup says R+1 compared to D+5 four years ago.
      5) HUGE GOTV advantage in terms of structure and volunteers.
      6) HUGE enthusiasm gap.
      7) Encouraging signs Trump will improve his vote totals among AA and Latino voters.
      8) Surprising strength of GOP in early voting, in several critical states.
      9) Indications that men will vote in unusually high numbers.
      10) Indications are that the youth vote is disinterested.
      11) Very hard to find someone who voted Trump in 2016 who will now vote Biden, but easy to find people who did not vote for Trump in 2016, but will now crawl over broken glass to vote for him.
      12) The battleground state polling done by the firms that got 2016 right show Trump getting past 270 EVs.
      13) Huge advantage in final stretch where Trump and Pence are doing 10 rallies a week, while Biden and Harris are hiding or when they come out gaffing.
      14) Trump has always been a closer, and is highly skilled at retail politics, unlike Biden who can barely read from a teleprompter.

      Here is what Biden has going for him:

      1) Leads the polling among the firms that got 2016 badly wrong.
      2) Relentless assistance from the news media and social media communists.
      3) Help from planned Dem cheating in many states where they will harvest ballots, and just stuff the boxes with extra ballots filled out by Dem operatives who hope desperately Biden wins, so he will pardon them rather than going to prison.

    193. Robbie says:

      What Gavin Newsom has done to Disneyland and Universal Studios is unconscionable, but predictable.

      I recognize the Republican Party is mostly a rump party in California, but they should be developing a message based the reopening life and business for 2022. Remember, Newsom said his restrictions wouldn’t last forever when he imposed them in March, but you bet they will still be in place well in 2021.

      Yes, we’re not through with 2020, but there is going to be a pandemic pushback in 2022 that could rival the energy of the Tea party. For the first time since the Pete Wilson 1994 campaign, the party in the state may have an issue around which it can rally.

      Whether it’s Kevin Falconer, Condi Rice, or one of the former House members who retired in 2018, someone should step forward and make rescuing the state from corona restrictions the rallying cry in 2022.

      If Biden wins, there will also be a special Senate seat election. Can Republicans win either? Likely not. Can two high quality candidates use the pandemic pushback/economic revival message as a way to rebuild the party on a statewide basis and set the stage for better days in the future? I say yes.

    194. Chicon says:

      197 – “The issue of this election is the coronavirus and its effect on the economy”.

      What’s your support for that statement? Perhaps you think that is the “issue” of this election, but I don’t think the voters agree with you.

    195. Stonewall DW says:

      IPSOS – Tillis tied, James down 5 to Peters in MI.

    196. Robbie says:

      Chicon says:
      October 20, 2020 at 6:01 pm
      197 – “The issue of this election is the coronavirus and its effect on the economy”.

      What’s your support for that statement? Perhaps you think that is the “issue” of this election, but I don’t think the voters agree with you.

      – The most recent FoxNews poll. Among likely voters the top two issues that voters ranked as the single most important issue were coronavirus at 44% and the economy at 44%.

      Here’s the link. Go to page 12 of 77. Questions 11 through 16 address the issue.

      https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2020/10/Fox_October-3-6-2020_Complete_National_Topline_October-7-Release-1.pdf

    197. Waingro says:

      #206, BOOMS all around. James was down 8 in last Reuters poll two weeks ago. RCP average now down to -3.9 points.

    198. Annie says:

      191. Michael Steele caught Stockholm Syndrome from MSNBC.

    199. Robbie says:

      Annie says:
      October 20, 2020 at 6:13 pm
      191. Michael Steele caught Stockholm Syndrome from MSNBC.

      – When you get thrown out of you job as RNC chair after the party has a historic 2010, you tend to get bitter and look for ways to get back at the people you once supported.

      I don’t mind at all that he doesn’t care for rump. Lots of former Republicans feel that way. It’s a totally different thing to become an advocate for the policies you fought against for most of your adult life. That’s what Steele has done.

    200. Country Dick Montana says:

      Micheal Steele and GOP members like him are part of the Swamp. They enjoy all the perks of living in DC and hobnobbing with media stars and high level officials. They enjoy the income that comes with influence even if it is as the “loyal opposition.”

      They are part of the media, bureaucracy, elected officials cabal that is there to maintain power over we deplorables and little people. They need power to be centralized in DC in order to be important.

      Said it before and I will say it again. Establishment GOP are the Washington Generals to the DEM’S Harlem Globetrotters. They win by losing.

    201. Tina says:

      The economy is the number 1 issue.

      China virus is 3.

      Those are the facts.

    202. Tina says:

      Yikes.

      Sean Langille
      @SeanLangille
      · 17m
      #BREAKING: A senior federal law enforcement official tells @JakeBGibson
      1) FBI & DOJ concur w/ Ratcliffe that Hunter Biden’s laptop & the emails in question weren’t part of a Russian disinformation campaign.

      2) The FBI DOES have possession of the Hunter Biden laptop in question.

    203. mnw says:

      203 Stonewall

      That all looks right to me, fwiw.

      I dunno if “the youth vote” is “disinterested,” or if it’s just dispersed because of so many colleges closing, & therefore harder to mobilize. It doesn’t make any difference which, really.

      You might want to add to the Trump list something along the lines of, “Tourism down so badly in Las Vegas that the Culinary Workers’ Union can’t seem to produce its usual turnout in Clark County.” Or maybe that’s too micro? I notice the attention the GOP is paying to NV, & I conclude that the GOP truly believes it’s their best shot at a blue-to-red flip. Better than MN.

    204. Chicon says:

      207 – Fox News has had some screwy polls. Anyway, here’s the list of “the single most important issue”

      The coronavirus pandemic 44%
      The economy 44%
      Health care 34%
      Racism 26%
      Violent crime 25%
      The Supreme Court 25%

      How do they add up to 198% for the single most important issue?

    205. Tina says:

      Eerie, pa is jammed pack

      May be the largest rally yet.

    206. mnw says:

      Tina!

      See 201 above.

      It’s pretty incredible!

    207. Tina says:

      50 cent saw China Biden’s tax plan and will now be voting for Trump.

      50 cents did not want to become 10 cents.

    208. Tina says:

      Mnw, something is happening out there.

      I don’t get the daily lids, weeks out.

      Nor do I understand why you call a lid because of scandal.

      I am not a campaign strategist

      But those moves are bad.

    209. Robbie says:

      If coronavirus isn’t the overriding issue, then what have the last seven months been about? It touches every aspect of our lives whether we like it or not. The economy has faltered because of it. Fears about healthcare are because of it. Frustration about schools opening is because of it.

      I know there’s a lot of pandemic fatigue. I have it as well. But wishing it away or saying it’s not that big of a deal doesn’t make it so when the polls show it ranks as one of the top issues.

      I know Trump wants to campaign as if corona’s not an issue, but it is an issue. He spent three nights in a hospital because of corona. He’s trying to negotiate a stimulus because of corona.

      Making the case he’ll get life back to normal and Biden will keep the country under a perpetual corona lockdown is a good message. It’s the hand he was dealt so he might as well play it. Just this afternoon, Erick Erickson said operatives in PA on both sides have told him lockdown frustrations are driving many voters to Trump.

    210. Tina says:

      Erick Erickson and his sources, lol.

      He is not tied to the campaign.

      And it’s just not the #1 issue,

      It’s the economy.

      That is why Biden has flatlined,

      That and where’s hunter?

    211. Country Dick Montana says:

      Robbie – I think that Trump spoke for the proverbial “everyman/woman” when he stated that the country is tired of coronavirus, Fauci and ‘the idiots” telling us what to do.

      The Big Government bureaucracy failed, bigly. That is the point that he should be driving home. And things would have been no better under Biden.

    212. Tina says:

      Confirmed by the Washington .examiner.

      Drip, drip, drip.

      JERRY DUNLEAVY
      @JerryDunleavy
      · 14m
      A federal law enforcement official tells @DCExaminer that the Justice Department & FBI agree with DNI Ratcliffe that the Hunter Biden laptop / emails in question are not part of a Russian disinformation operation, and further says that the FBI is in possession of Hunter’s laptop.

    213. PhilS says:

      Here are the top issues for voters. You live in la la land.

      Pew Research:

      “The economy is consistently a top voting issue. In a survey asking a similar, though not identical, list of issues in June 2016, the economy also was the top voting issue.

      In the current survey, 68% of voters say health care is very important to their vote, while 64% cite Supreme Court appointments.

      As the country continues to grapple with the coronavirus outbreak, 62% of voters say the outbreak will be a very important factor in their decision about who to support in the fall.

      About six-in-ten (59%) say violent crime will be very important to their 2020 decision, and 57% say this about foreign policy.”

    214. Country Dick Montana says:

      The FBI has Hunter’s laptop. What have they been doing with it all of this time?

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fdjf4lMmiiI

    215. MrVito says:

      215. The fox poll asks whether each of those individually will be the most important, important but not most important, not too important, etc.

      It is not a head to head of the most important issue.

    216. PhilS says:

      “The FBI has Hunter’s laptop. What have they been doing with it all of this time?”

      Watching the kiddie porn.

    217. PhilS says:

      Robbie, do you ever do any research?

    218. Tina says:

      You give great advice on what trump should say on the China virus.

      He has said this at the rallies, If you catch them

      He has mentioned multiple times are you better off than you were 4 years ago. He mentions the Gallup 56% number.

    219. PhilS says:

      The top in 224 is cut off.

      The economy is cited by 79% as top issue.

    220. Tina says:

      And the economy is the number one issue now.

      China virus is 3.

      Healthcare 2.

    221. Tina says:

      Strange Day 7 or 8 and neither Biden nor Where’s Hunter? have denied the emails and photos.

    222. Wes says:

      When “Family Values” Cal was outed as Jody Cunningham, RRH said the revelations would have minimal impact on the race. A rescue poll even said “Family Values” Cal was widning his lead over Tillis.

      We now have several polls indicating movement toward Tillis.

      RRH was wrong yet again.

      By the way, I just saw a great ad from Tillis using active duty service members sayibg “Family Values” Cal is under investigation for UCMJ violations, concluding with “North Carolina can’t trust Cal Cunningham.”

      That’s the way to frame the issue. “Family Values” Cal betrayed his fellow soldiers and will betray us too.

      I have to applaud Tillis’ ad men for that.

    223. lisab says:

      Breaking: The FBI has destroyed Hunter’s laptop by mistake

      According to FBI officials, Hunter’s laptop was accidentally dropped down a flight of stairs, into a pool of acid, smashed with a hammer and lit on fire.

      Fortunately, this was after they confirmed there was nothing of interest on the laptop.

    224. lisab says:

      Wes,

      with Florida early voting looking strong for trump, even predictit has it favoured by trump now,

      NC is looking critical for biden.

      what is your take on NC’s voting?

    225. lisab says:

      when did the fbi become so incredibly corrupt?

      under whitey bulger?

    226. Country Dick Montana says:

      “when did the fbi become so incredibly corrupt?”

      They really need to zero it out of the budget and then start over.

    227. lisab says:

      that won’t happen

    228. Tina says:

      Yikes

      Peter Schweizer
      @peterschweizer
      · 21m
      BREAKING. Hearing that Bevan Cooney who has shared his Biden related emails with us has been REMOvED from the federal facility in Oregon where he is being detained

    229. Wes says:

      Early voting has been a bit more friendly to Dems thus far than in 2016, Lisa, but nowhere near what it was when they last won a major victory here.

      The margins are still where Republicans need them to win.

      Interestingly I’m wondering if Dems may not have hurt themselves here by pushing for so much early voting because questions about “Family Values” Cal’s character have drowned out almost everything else in the race and clearly begun hurting him as Tarheels have become more familiar with his affairs.

    230. lisab says:

      but i there was a time when criminals were afraid of the fbi

      and agents were considered the gold standard of the incorruptible

      thus the, “don’t make a federal case out of it” idiom

      because the criminals knew not to mess with the fbi

      no one has really been prosecuted for epstein yet!

      they have boxes of evidence

    231. Tina says:

      FOX now reporting on hunters laptop and subpoena for it by the fib.

      https://twitter.com/my3monkees/status/1318678339033436166

    232. lisab says:

      thanks wes

    233. Country Dick Montana says:

      Didn’t say that it would. The FBI has been corrupt going back to when Hoover was making it his own little fiefdom. Spying on politicians and “undesirables.” Even Deep Throat was convicted of violating civil rights.

      I really don’t think there are many good agents. lawyers with guns and attitude.

    234. Wes says:

      Currently Dems lead NC early voting by 347k votes. That’s slightly up from 2016 at this time. It’s well off the 675k lead they finished with in 2008.

    235. LewisS says:

      Sumter County, FL (the home of the infamous Dave Wasserman tweet)

      In 2016:
      Trump: 52,777 (68.8%)
      Clinton: 22,631 (29.5%)
      Other: 1,300

      In 2020:
      As it stands today with just the partisan Republican/Democrat vote from Mail In and Early Vote.

      (Republicans are outright winning the mail in vote by the way)

      Trump 17,857 (59.5%)
      Biden 12,150 (40.5%)

      Today, Republicans won the Early Vote by 3,459.
      Republican: 4,473
      Democrat: 1,014

      At this rate, Republicans will have a bigger lead (in raw vote and % lead) by the end of early voting than they did in the FINAL 2016 vote.

    236. lisab says:

      yes, hoover was corrupt, making his own kingdom

      but he put bad guys in prison or the morgue

      can you imagine hoover letting a vp’s son work for the chinese?

    237. Country Dick Montana says:

      Hoover loved spying on politicians. That is how he kept his job for so long.

    238. Hugh says:

      Add to it Wes that vbm was pushed so hard by dems. They should be blowing it out of the park and they are not.

    239. Tina says:

      Daniel Chaitin
      @danielchaitin7
      The photo, published by a Kazakhstani anti-corruption website, shows Joe Biden meeting Hunter’s alleged business partner from Kazakhstan

      https://nypost.com/2020/10/20/photo-biden-meets-hunters-alleged-partner-from-kazakhstan/?utm_source=twitter_sitebuttons&utm_medium=site%20buttons&utm_campaign=site%20buttons… via
      @nypost

    240. Wes says:

      I agree, Hugh.

      Of course an RRH Democrat–as opposed to the fake Republicans posting there–has pointed out NC now has 56% of its 2016 total vote in.

      Dems are still nowhere near where they were 12 years ago, and with the scandal being the current big thing in the Senate race, one has to wonder how many people who don’t like Trump will still support Tillis over Cunningham.

    241. JamesT says:

      Someone above stated that Murkowski is a YES on ACB. I don’t see any news on that. Was that just speculation because Lisa met Amy?

    242. DW says:

      Baris rightly warns against reading too much into early voting. There is no precedent to this election to compare against and in the end cannot know how they vote

    243. Will says:

      I voted early, in person in New Hanover Co, NC.

      Trump, Tillis, Rouzer, Forest….

      Am not a registered Rep voter.

      Wes, the data on the civitas carolinaelection site for 2016 does not show election day data. I have been looking at 2012 to get an idea of turnout in my precinct. Were you aware of this.?

      It appears that election day turn out exceeded 1.8 million last time

    244. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      Trump has a point. Hunter would not have gotten so much money if it was because of his father; he had nothing else of value to offer except access. As a dutiful son he gave his father his cut.

      “President Trump said Hunter Biden was acting like a “vacuum cleaner” as he followed his father, then-Vice President Joe Biden, on foreign trips to make business deals.

      “I mean his son walked around like a vacuum cleaner … and look, this is the laptop from hell,” the president said Tuesday on “Fox & Friends.”

      “They say right in the laptop that, you know, the big man has to get 10 percent. And then in another case they say 50 percent. This is 100 percent. And even if he didn’t get any, and he lives like a king, even if he didn’t get all of this money — and everybody has known this in Washington for a long time — this isn’t surprising, nobody is surprised by this. But even if he didn’t. You can’t go to China and all of a sudden walk out with $1.5 billion to manage,” the president said.”

    245. PresidentPaul! says:

      anonymous patriot ?????? (@anonpatriotq)
      JUST IN: Rudy Giuliani just confirmed on Greg Kelly’s show (Newsmax) that there are pictures of underage girls on Hunter Biden’s hard drive. The information has already been turned over to Delaware State Police.
      Retweets

    246. Tina says:

      Major Garrett
      @MajorCBS
      ·
      15m
      Via
      @ClareHymes22

      @CBSNews

      The FBI & DOJ concur with DNI Ratcliffe’s assessment that Hunter Biden’s laptop and the emails in question were not part of a Russian disinformation campaign. FBI does has possession of the Hunter Biden laptop in question.

    247. Tina says:

      Trump,at eerie pa rally playing video of China Biden wanting to ban fracking.

    248. Tina says:

      But Biden has an even bigger problem than banning fracking.

      I call his problem the laptop from hell.

    249. dblaikie says:

      Trump nails it! “The laptop from hell.”

    250. DW says:

      If there is malfeasance with underage girls on the laptop, there goes the Mr Nice Guy angle

    251. Tina says:

      Yikes

      Jack Posobiec Flag of United States
      @JackPosobiec
      ·
      24m
      BREAKING:
      @RudyGiuliani
      announces he has turned over Hunter Biden hard drive to Delaware State Police due to pictures of underage girls and inappropriate text messages

    252. Tina says:

      Here is the jumbo from and Biden warning to ban fracking.

      https://mobile.twitter.com/kayleighmcenany/status/1318705285079420934

    253. Tina says:

      Lol

      TRUMP: “Biden took a 5-day lid. You know what a lid is? A lid. Like a garbage can.”

    254. PresidentPaul! says:

      Biden’s yearly income on his tax reports were around 17 million a year.

      Which new tech company did demented Joe found to be making all that money?

    255. Country Dick Montana says:

      IIRC from my young days a lid is actually a nickle and dime bag of weed.

      Given the news and events of the last few days I imagine both Hunter and Joe are doing lots of lids.

    256. PresidentPaul! says:

      Peter Theil’s new IPO this called Palantir is doing really well.

      Which new IPO is Joe Biden’s?

    257. Tina says:

      “Biggest crowd Biden ever had.”

      Who thought of the Jumbotron?

      https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1318706781003055107

    258. MrVito says:

      “ Which new IPO is Joe Biden’s?”

      It’s called ‘Access’

    259. jaichind says:

      264. Dem and MSM response

      https://youtu.be/ZGw5DKX6U6w?t=185

    260. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      Good evening, everyone! Busy day as a poll watcher. So much Democrat enthusiasm, it is incredible. Looks like Biden continues to lead in Ohio and Iowa.

    261. PresidentPaul! says:

      Crazy thing is I was reading about the underage pictures on hunter’s lap top weeks ago on 4chan, and thought it was memes since there were no actual links just random chatter.

    262. MrVito says:

      yan Saavedra Retweeted

      50cent
      @50cent
      ·
      Oct 19
      EyesWHAT THE F*CK! (VOTE ForTRUMP) IM OUT, Man runningDash symbolF*CK NEW YORK The KNICKS never win anyway. Man shruggingI don’t care Trump doesn’t like black people 62% are you out of ya f*cking mind. Face with look of triumph

    263. MrVito says:

      Guess he doesn’t want to have to change his name to 19cent if Biden wins.

    264. Phil says:

      Yes. Biden up in Iowa and Ohio. Trump up only one in Missouri. Biden Leading Florida by 11. Up 15 nationally. Biden up more than the MOE in Georgia.

      Just the BS you’ve posted that I can remember off the top of my head.

      Garbage in garbage out.

    265. Stonewall DW says:

      PENNSYLVANIA – Change Research (D)
      OCT 16-19, 2020

      Biden 49%
      Trump 47%

    266. Tina says:

      ? Retweeted

      NYPatriot
      @NWOinPanicMode
      ·
      5m
      The FBI just got the media to finally admit that the #LaptopFromHell is Hunter’s.

      Then Rudy drops the bomb about underage girls and Hunter texting his father about them.

      Scorched Earth.

    267. MrVito says:

      JERRY DUNLEAVY
      @JerryDunleavy
      .
      @JeffreyToobin
      in 2011 on the Anthony Weiner tweet scandal: “This is a light-hearted story. This is a silly little thing that happened. It’s not a big deal… Look, everybody knows that on the internet, stuff happens.”

    268. Stonewall DW says:

      “Then Rudy drops the bomb about underage girls and Hunter texting his father about them.”

      If its true, lights out.

    269. PhilS says:

      Like father, like son

    270. Tina says:

      I am sure they got the psychiatrists texts, emails, records, etc.

    271. Tina says:

      CBS, Major Garrett reports on the laptop from hell.

    272. PresidentPaul! says:

      https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/10/20/exclusive-bevan-cooney-moved-from-prison-cell-after-providing-email-account-exposing-hunter-biden/

      Exclusive — Bevan Cooney Moved from Prison Cell after Providing Email Account Exposing Hunter Biden

    273. jaichind says:

      https://news.bloombergtax.com/daily-tax-report/trump-tax-records-show-bank-account-in-china-nyt-reports

      “Trump Tax Records Show Bank Account in China, NYT Reports”

      From MSM: Attack is the best defense.
      Clearly an attempt to squeeze out the Hunter Biden stories

    274. Tina says:

      Yeah. And you dutifully posted it here.

    275. Hugh says:

      Poor old nyt one more cry wolf. Yawn. Too many times for the nyt. Not near as good as pedophilia and payoffs to demented joe. This race is over.

      Chump Chump!!!

    276. Pitchaboy says:

      Jai panicky. Noose is tightening.

    277. jaichind says:

      288. Actually I meant to add that this story is a nothing-berger. I think the account they are talking about is owned by the Trump organization as opposed to Trump personally. As a result there is no reason why that ha to be disclosed. The reality is the Trump Organization must have business dealings in Mainland China which is the second largest economy in the world.

      Still for NYT to try to push this now is pretty desperate

    278. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      Baris could only get Rump up 46.9 -44.4 in Arizona? Guess the funding dried up?

    279. Pitchaboy says:

      Gator Boy: Swamp creature going down. Bad photos. Stick a pole in it.

    280. Robbie says:

      I haven’t seen Phil post today. I hope his recovery from corona is going well.

    281. jaichind says:

      Surely now Hunter Biden is going to have to come out to tell his side of the story. It will start to look very bad if he does not show himself because if he does not they he is accepting everything that Giuliani is saying is true.

    282. Scooterboy says:

      Trump using the Jumbotron to play clips of Biden/Harris saying they will ban fracking, is a masterpiece.

      Instead of having to spend money on ads, he just ran a full length ad that will get covered by most news stations across the State. Very smart.

    283. Chicon says:

      Robbie, Phil was on earlier today.

    284. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      What office is Hunter running for? No one cares about “his side of the story.”

    285. Pitchaboy says:

      Hunter ain’t showing up or talking. Lawyering up.

    286. Tina says:

      They accepted everything as true.

      It’s day 8 And each day a lid was called.

    287. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      296. Maybe Hunter can blame it all on his cocaine addiction. Joe Biden will have to use another excuse for taking his cut, maybe he can argue mental incapacity.

    288. Robbie says:

      Chicon says:
      October 20, 2020 at 9:26 pm
      Robbie, Phil was on earlier today.

      – Good. Thanks.

    289. Robbie says:

      I’ve been watching India’s corona reports. A few months ago, the government realized the counterproductive nature of lockdowns and gave up on them. Cases proceeded to peak in early August and then they began to crash. Additionally, despite a medical system that isn’t good in a lot of places, they didn’t have a massive wave of deaths.

      Had we simply done nothing, this would have been over by mid Summer.

    290. Tina says:

      The Jumbotron was the greatest campaign aid at a rally ever.

      The person who thought of it should get a raise.

      That is like a 24/7 non stop ad targeted at PA.

    291. mnw says:

      Scooterboy:

      Best political ad in U.S. history!

      Thune v. Daschle; “In His Own Words”:

      NOTHING except Daschle talking, NOTHING except that, intercut with Daschle contradicting himself:

      “I am pro-life! I am 100% for a woman’s right to choose! I am a D.C. resident! I am South Dakota resident..,and my family has been here for 5 generations!’ (etc.)

    292. Tina says:

      Yikes. I don’t like guessing, but we likely will be heading soon about human trafficking,

      John Solomon
      @jsolomonReports
      · 16m
      Rudy Giuliani files police report on purported Hunter Biden laptop, alleging child endangerment | Just The News https://justthenews.com/government/courts-law/rudy-giuliani-reports-evidence-alleged-child-endangerment-delaware-police

    293. Tina says:

      Hearing*

    294. Robbie says:

      On September 17, India’s 7 day moving average peaked around 93,000 cases a day. In one month’s time, their 7 day moving average has dropped to about 57,000 cases a day.

      Obviously, India’s not running as many tests as we are nor are they testing asymptomatic people either. Additionally, India’s weather is much warmer than ours is right now.

      Still, India told its people they can either hide from corona or go hungry because they aren’t working. They chose work and the policy appears to have worked. It may be that America and Europe are the only ones who really need a vaccine because we chose not to follow long held science about how to deal with airborne illnesses.

    295. PresidentPaul! says:

      Guiliani was a terrible presidential candidate but hes a great attack dog.

    296. Annie says:

      299. Are you so dumb as to not understand how this decades-long Biden family pay for play scan compromises a person who seeks the presidency? It would easily open Biden up to blackmail or making policy against our national interests, because people like the Chinese do not give out money without expecting something in return. Obama’s State Department had warned him that the Biden’s influence-peddling was a national security risk.

    297. jaichind says:

      310. India’s numbers are falling mostly because the virus spread is now mostly in rural areas where testing arability is a lot lower than urban areas. I do think the virus spread in urban India has mostly run its course.

    298. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      @adamhousley Here ya go….this is the email sent to John Paul by Hunter Biden’s lawyer. It is in reference to returning the laptops. Also…the attorney said Hunter dropped em off in 2017. Nope..try April 2019. He didn’t even know when he left em there. Redactions on this document are mine

    299. MrIto says:

      First piece of data from Gallup’s October polling.

      Americans want ACB confirmed 51-46%

    300. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      @adamhousley Breaking: Multiple FBI sources…The FBI investigation into the laptop has been ongoing since December of 2019…there’s a lot going on behind the scenes. A lot. There is a massive amount of info.

    301. Smack says:

      Gatorbillyjoel,

      You’ve gone from, “this story is fake and a Russian plot”

      ..to…

      “What office is Hunter running for?”

      …just in the last 24 hours.

      Where will you be on the 5 stages of denial tomorrow night?

      BRRRAAAHHHHAAA!!!

    302. Annie says:

      312. * Biden family pay for play scam … typo

    303. Transparent Dem Troll says:

      Sincerest apologies on the trolls

    304. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      306. Ah, what a beautiful world if only…
      https://twitter.com/SpencerJCox/status/1318537411471708162?s=20

      Why not be civil? Cox leads Peterson in the polls by 50% to 26%. Democratic candidates in statewide races in Utah know their just sacrificial lambs.

    305. MichiganGuy says:

      #320 SDC, so you enjoy gutter politics. Tells me a lot about yourself. Sad.

    306. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      299. “What office is Hunter running for? No one cares about “his side of the story.””

      If this is now the fall back troll talking point, things are going to get ugly fast.

    307. BayernFan says:

      CBS Catherine Herridge reporting on it too.

      Here is her tweet….

      NEW: Law enforcement source tells @CBSNews FBI + DOJ concur with @dni_ratcliffe laptop + emails, said to belong to Hunter Biden, were not part of Russian disinformation campaign + FBI has laptop. Separate reporting suggests could be part of foreign influence op @ClareHymes22

    308. jaichind says:

      Even if this is isolated to Hunter Biden this is still very problematic for the same reasons the Dem falsely accused Trump of. Namely that he is compromised and vulnerable to Russian blackmail. With all this stuff floating out there about Hunter Biden what is to prevent someone from using that to blackmail President Biden.

    309. Tina says:

      WSJ Editorial Page
      @WSJopinion
      · 1h
      Joe Biden has an obligation to answer questions about his son’s influence-peddling and his own financial dealings—notably regarding China, writes The Editorial Board https://on.wsj.com/3jj2qq9

    310. DW says:

      And if hunter texted his dad about the girls…

    311. PhilS says:

      Both father and son Bidens are pedophiles.

    312. NYCmike says:

      Is that the real “CG”?

      I didn’t think they got Youtube up that high.

      I thought they just “watch” us little people when they look out their windows.

    313. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      Who is the “big guy” who gets 10%? According to Fox News:

      “One of the people on an explosive email thread allegedly involving Hunter Biden has corroborated the veracity of the messages, which appear to outline a payout for former Vice President Joe Biden as part of a deal with a Chinese energy firm.

      One email, dated May 13, 2017, and obtained by Fox News, includes a discussion of “remuneration packages” for six people in a business deal with a Chinese energy firm. The email appeared to identify Hunter Biden as “Chair / Vice Chair depending on agreement with CEFC,” in an apparent reference to now-bankrupt CEFC China Energy Co.

      The email includes a note that “Hunter has some office expectations he will elaborate.” A proposed equity split references “20” for “H” and “10 held by H for the big guy?” with no further details. Fox News spoke to one of the people who was copied on the email, who confirmed its authenticity.”

    314. NYCmike says:

      https://twitter.com/stillgray/status/1318677385059823616

      -“CG”, strong “conservative Republican” agrees with this “sane” individual!

    315. Rudy G says:

      Did you all enjoy the story I read about the 14 year old? Crazy stuff – almost like fiction! Just wait another day or two, I will have some real bombshells.

    316. jaichind says:

      328. I am waiting for a 3 way Joe Biden, Hunter Biden and Cal Cunningham ad spot as part of a new Biden family values ad offensive

    317. Tina says:

      Peoples_Pundit
      @Peoples_Pundit
      ·
      2h
      During rally, Trump stopped to play audio of
      @JoeBiden
      and
      @KamalaHarris
      stating/promising they will end fracking.

      In Erie, Pennsylvania.

      Glenn Kessler will fact-check those audios tomorrow morning. He’ll say they were joking or something…

    318. NYCmike says:

      The media made a choice – do things fairly, by covering both campaigns with equal tenacity, and letting the best person/ideas win the vote.

      Instead, they chose to get even more one-sided than ever before in history, including actual censoring of the news (approved by “CG”, I guess) like a communist country would do. That left Trump and Republicans only 1 option – use any and every tool available to fight back.

      Thankfully, Trump has done that, without hesitation!

      Bush-bots like “CG” are horrified……while telling us how good a person Denny Hastert was……

    319. MrVito says:

      Mini AOC
      @RealMiniAOC
      ·
      11h
      The “Big Guy” in Hunter’s emails is Michelle Obama.

    320. NYCmike says:

      #337 – Heh!

    321. Hugh says:

      The pedophile acorn does not fall far from the tree. This election is over. Trump should skip the debate and take his victory lap. Or demand changes to the debate topics.

      Chump Chump!! Where’s gator?

    322. Tina says:

      Michelle is actually Michael.

      Who knew?

    323. The Big Guy says:

      My identity will be revealed in due time.

    324. Bitterlaw says:

      I think Biden is creepy. I do not believe he has ever molested children. There is no way that would have been covered up and never gotten out in the #MeToo era. He has been running for President since the War of 1812. Somebody would have used that if true. Trump would have used if he had it.

    325. PhilS says:

      Biden molests children in public.

    326. DW says:

      Its enough if Joe knew Hunter was doing it and he looked the other way

    327. Chicon says:

      Fair point, Bitter. The money stuff, though, is much more likely to be true, imo.

    328. jaichind says:

      342. I agree with you. Although it is totally possible he knew about Hunder Biden and underaged girls and did nothing about it.

    329. Rudy G says:

      You think I am desperate now, just give me another week!

    330. Bitterlaw says:

      Dems just need to beat Trump. They will dump Biden the day he is inaugurated if it serves their goals.

    331. The Big Guy says:

      Where’s my 10%?

    332. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      Speaking of beating, any news on Toobin?

    333. Bitterlaw says:

      I remember being extremely despondent when Bill Clinton won. The idea that a draft dodging leftist could beat a war hero was hard to accept. Now, we are left hoping a draft dodger can defeat Biden and save us from the abyss.

    334. MrVito says:

      The Dems are just upset because this wasn’t supposed to come out before they finished blackmailing Joe into handing the presidency to Kamala.

    335. PhilS says:

      351: Who is this “we” you are projecting your inadequacies on to?

    336. Bitterlaw says:

      Planning on using your real handle before Election Day, PhilS?

    337. PhilS says:

      Just because you are stupid and sel=f-hating does not mean everyone else is.

      Lots of people walk over broken glass to support Trump, you see thousands line up every day. Because lots of people think that Trunp is the best president for a long long time.

    338. buster says:

      Wow, two Biden commercials back to back on Fox Laura Ingram show. Lying about not raising taxes on the middle class in one. I hope he keeps pissing away his money like this.

    339. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      351. “Now, we are left hoping a draft dodger can defeat Biden and save us from the abyss.”

      Lets not forget that Biden received 5 draft deferments, four as a student, and the fifth for asthma. Trump likewise received four student deferments, and then a fifth for bone spurs.

      Its interesting that asthma did not keep Biden from playing football and being a lifeguard.

      As many commentators have stated: “Joe Biden’s Draft Record Looks a Lot Like Donald Trump’s”

    340. lisab says:

      you know in the movies when the hero/heroine walks into someone’s room and it is a serial killer’s shrine to someone with hundreds of pictures of the hero/heroine all over the walls?

      that is corey’s blog now

      he has gone tds-bye-bye

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqVyois9mp4

    341. Hugh says:

      So bitter if Biden had his hands all over one of your soccer players sniffing her hair is that under your definition of molestation or being creepy? Because I know Biden does that and I doubt if he did more than that with underage girls. I would call it molestation. However it nothing like what I think hunter has done.

      As for phils. Bitter is a bit self loathing but he is a good man who does the right thing by his wife and family. That counts for a lot in my book.

    342. PhilS says:

      I don’t really care what he does with his wife and family.

      What he posts is self-loathing, and he has a disturbing habit of projecting his self-hatred on to others.

      And he gets defensive when called upon it.

    343. Jeff Toobin says:

      Who wants to fap with me?

    344. PhilS says:

      And just to be clear, Joe Biden is a pure child molester the way he crawls over 12c year old girls.

    345. Jeff Toobin says:

      Anyone? Yo Lisa, what are you wearing?

      fap fap fap

    346. BayernFan says:

      Take the tape off your camera.

    347. Hunter Biden says:

      I’ll fap. Want to see some pics on my laptop?

      Wait, where’s my laptop? Oh SH!T.

    348. Hugh says:

      I don’t agree with bitter a fair amount and he can be offensive at times like most of us but he is not in my opinion the person your describing.

    349. JeffP says:

      Guess what…the girl Hunter was nude with in his text was a relative….that was why he was talking with the BIG GUY about it so openly! I kid you not…people have seen the photos of the girl which are many. Being reported by people in the know. Sick stuff man.

    350. JeffP says:

      Not usre if this was posted yet…Nate Silver…..Why Trump could win: there’s still some time left, tipping-point state polls are closer than national polls, sometimes polls are wrong (though they’d need to be more than a little wrong this year), and mail voting and court disputes create some additional uncertainties.

      LOLOLOLOL what a schill.

    351. MrVito says:

      I don’t care what he may say
      I don’t care what he may do
      I don’t care what he may say
      Bitter is just alright

      OH YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!

      …..

      …..

      Mista Bittaaaaaaaaaaaah is my friend
      Yes he is!

      Mista Bittaaaaaaaaaaaah is my friend!

      He took me by the hand
      And brought me to the Philly clubhouse, man!
      Mista Bittaaaaaaaaaaaah is my friend.

    352. lisab says:

      jeffp,

      i think it is different girls.

      from what i guess from the text, he face times with one of his relatives, a girl, while naked or alternatively he walks around naked while face-timing with girls, and the relative has seen him do this.

      in addition, there are pictures of him with an underage girl, who may be topless in one of the pictures, although it could also be his relative.

      the relative could be one of his daughters.

    353. PresidentPaul! says:

      Remember when we thought this was strange?

      https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ek0hcl7XEAEcTBW?format=jpg&name=medium

    354. Bitterlaw says:

      PhilS is just another internet bully who loves himself. Not enough to use his real handle, of course.

    355. mnw says:

      325 Tina

      Maybe the MSM dam is breaking?

    356. lisab says:

      if there is a picture of biden with a young girl

      the election is over

      many dems will not vote for that

      a lot will … like the trolls here, corey, robby, obamaconn … but a lot of people won’t

    357. JeffP says:

      Lisab…yes…I should have described that better…I think someone said 25K pictures and videos of many underage girls. I think the Moab coming will be more proof a Joe Biden China and Ukraine payout …maybe that is wishful thinking but I would not be surprised. I think Biden’s lid is all about trying to figure out what is on the hard drive from hell that Rudy has. See if blame Russia will work…counter with something on DJT.

    358. lisab says:

      alleged text between joe and hunter

      “She told my therapist that I was sexually inappropriate with [redacted] when she says that I face time naked with her and the reason I can’t have her out to see me is because I’ll walk around naked smoking crack [and talking to] girls on face time,” Hunter says in the exchange.”When she was pressed she said that [redacted] never said anything like that but the bottom line is that I create[d] and caused a very unsafe environment for the kids.”

    359. lisab says:

      i am guessing something big will come out the day of the debate

    360. Steve Bannon says:

      We were going to release the threesome video tomorrow. Should we wait until Thursday?

      -Stevie. B.

    361. JeffP says:

      Dr. Scott Atlas @SWAtlasHoover

      Children are being literally destroyed. But, hey, better keep testing them, finding asymptomatics, confining low risk young people, test the college sewage system, limit in-person classes – *must* find those cases! And btw, nah, that’s not lockdown… bitly.ws/aibv

      Wow…he is not messing around…the anti Birx…love it! Don’t mess with my liberties!

    362. PresidentPaul! says:

      The Hunter life

      – banging his brother’s wife
      – smoking crack while walking naked in his house not giving a fu1,ck
      – impregnating hot stri,ppers and boozing/getting high in st,rip clubs
      – getting paid millions of dollars by corrupt foreign government for not doing sh1it (giving kickbacks to his dad.)

    363. JeffP says:

      Lisab as a therapist that counsels sexual abuse…that exchange is about a family member for sure. Very weird.

    364. PresidentPaul! says:

      ****HUNTER CONFIRMED INCEST PEDO***

      >A source close to the matter, though, who claims to have seen the images on Hunter’s laptop, told Revolver that about one-third of the images are of the same underage girl. Some of the images are topless, while in others she is shown in suggestive positions with Hunter himself.

      >Remarkably, while Giuliani has not alleged this, Revolver’s source claimed that the illicit photos on Hunter’s laptop were of a member of the Biden family

    365. lisab says:

      Lisab as a therapist that counsels sexual abuse…that exchange is about a family member for sure.
      ——————-

      my reading as well — his ex-wife talking to his therapist? who else would be?

      i don’t necessarily think that the text means anything bad happened between hunter and his daughter though

      other than she maybe saw her father naked and high

    366. lisab says:

      if it is natalie

      then his neice, beau’s daughter potentially saw him naked

      ok, that would be over-the-line icki-ness

    367. JeffP says:

      It’s Natalie Beaus daughter…dot on I was not redacted. Her uncle could have had a thing for his niece. That makes Grampa look Real Bad…Incest dynamics get really messy and family members typically are in denial and don’t handle the situation in appropriate ways. Therapist would have to report…so would have Joe by law.

    368. lisab says:

      i had a close friend in the peace corps whose proudest moment was sunbathing with her dad,

      she was from california

      but

      your dead brother’s daughter?!

    369. JeffP says:

      That 4 day lid sure makes sense.

    370. PresidentPaul! says:

      I wanted to know which family member. went to 4chan. They already had it up.

    371. lisab says:

      if true, and it comes out, the poor girl’s life is over

      she will have to disappear, she could never be free of that

      and if biden loses because of it

      she will think the family blames her

      and

      they might

    372. JeffP says:

      Lisab yeah in Northen California they have nude beaches and France other EU counties no big deal…but this is different…he had a fetish for her…probably abused her at some point.

    373. lisab says:

      yeah, no judgement on my friend, she was a true hippie, she was proud she could be so close to her dad

      and it’s not like i haven’t sunbathed tople … i mean, ummmmmmm … it’s fine, nothing to see here folks, move along … move along 🙂

    374. JeffP says:

      Pretty sad…For the girl…Joe is an enabler that Is for sure. Not good. Compare that to Trump who would allow his kids to do drugs or else!

    375. JeffP says:

      *not allow

    376. lisab says:

      Joe is an enabler that Is for sure
      —————————————-

      well … in fairness, just rumors

      and hopefully unfounded

    377. PresidentPaul! says:

      “Ridin with Biden”

    378. PresidentPaul! says:

      Trump calls for death penalty

      Donald J. Trump
      @realDonaldTrump

      Got to do something about these missing chidlren grabbed by the perverts. Too many incidents–fast trial, death penalty.

    379. lisab says:

      Trump calls for death penalty
      ——————————-

      in fairness so did Keith Olbermann

    380. michael corleone says:

      Pretty good day for GOP in Washoe. I’m under no illusions that we will win NV, but good trend nonetheless.

    381. JeffP says:

      399 Trump has heard the same stories I have heard the last 30 years…we live in a very dark world.

    382. JeffP says:

      401 I needed that. Thanks.

    383. michael corleone says:

      Jon Ralston
      @RalstonReports
      ·
      47m

      Repubs crushed Dems in early voting in Washoe today, almost 2 to 1: 4,136 to 2,264

      Jon Ralston
      @RalstonReports
      ·
      45m
      Dems lead in Washoe now down to just under 11K:
      38,787 to 28,010

    384. lisab says:

      Health Experts Now Recommend Maximizing Social Distance By Attending A Biden Rally

    385. lisab says:

      Biden Campaign Says He Is So Close To A VP Pick He Can Smell Her

    386. lisab says:

      More Bison Looking For Work As Yellowstone Park Closed For Government Shutdown

    387. lisab says:

      CDC Identifies Strain Of Pumpkin Spice Coronavirus —

      uh oh

    388. PresidentPaul! says:

      https://twitter.com/Cuds_1246/status/1318676365126885377?s=20

      Nurse Ratchet put 86 45 in her twitter.

    389. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      Holy heck! 140,000 additional mail in ballots came in just today in Florida from Democrats. We aren’t slowing down anytime soon!

      Half a million vote lead at this point.

      Chomp Chomp.

      13 days.

    390. chris says:

      dems had a 600k+ lead at the end of early voting in in Florida in 2016. Still didn’t help

    391. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      Chris,

      You only missed it by 567,000…

      https://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/florida-early-voting-230841

      Florida Democrats increased their lead over Republicans in casting pre-Election Day ballots to nearly 33,000 as of Sunday morning.

      Of the record 6.1 million in-person early votes and absentee ballots cast, Democrats have an advantage over Republicans of only 0.5 percentage points, with each party casting roughly 39 percent of the ballots.

    392. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      401. Was in Nevada last week. Was surprised at the amount of advertising Trump is doing in the state. Still assume Biden will win Nevada, but am not so sure given recent polling — also attempts by unions to get their voters out are being hurt by coronavirus restrictions.

    393. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      Survey Monkey appears to provide possibly accurate polling of those who participate in their surveys, the final results of which are weighed to match population demographics. However, it is likely a large majority of the population does not take part in their surveys; making their polling somewhat useless.

      “Our sampling process is similar to the way polling has traditionally been done, but updated for the internet age. Instead of randomly drawing respondents from a list of phone numbers, we randomly draw from our diverse base of daily survey takers. We ask our respondents how old they are, whether they are registered to vote, what state they live in, and so on… just as phone polls do.”

    394. PresidentPaul! says:

      I doubt hes putting money in nevada. Its overflow from same arizona markets.

    395. brent says:

      BOOM! Wisconsin Bellweather Kenosha County Trump 61%, Biden 34%. Early Voting so far heavy.

    396. lisab says:

      yeah, wi and mi are not dem friendly right now

      that is why pa and nc are dem musts

      wes says nc is not dem friendly right now. he has been correct most elections, and correct on nc

    397. Gordon Allen says:

      Power line has a story about the child molester/ porn addict( with underage CHINESE girls) Hunter Biden. What a swell family,and security risks all

    398. Sheeple,Jr. says:

      #412
      Holy Heck, Dickh–d!
      You conveniently omitted yesterday’s in-person voting results from FL. The Republicans kicked arse and now have an ever-widening lead in this mode of voting.
      Also, look at the map in the link below.To wit: about a dozen small, but very red Counties have yet to engage in in-person voting(the Counties in white). Give it up and focus on MN.

      https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/

    399. Country Dick Montana says:

      Judging by the very few posts from the usual suspect that I had to scroll by, the trolling last night was half hearted. Since the usual suspect had to come in late, he was not able to unleash his various alter egos as it would have been obvious (as if it isn’t now) that our troll farm consists of just one animal.

      Even the troll knows that this is serious. How they can live with themselves is beyond me.

      Just scroll by. They can’t convince now it is just flinging poo for the sake of satisfying their rage.

    400. Country Dick Montana says:

      And let’s not get too confident. This is not going to be a landslide in either direction. 50/50 who is going to win.

    401. Smack says:

      418, Brent,

      Where are you finding this info on early voting in Kenosha County, Wisconsin?

    402. Smack says:

      https://mobile.twitter.com/OldNorthStPol/status/1318884327258755072/photo/2

      The gap in NC will continue to close until last weekend before Election Day when souls to the polls push happens among DEMs.

      It’s looking good for GOP in NC.

    403. MichiganGuy says:

      New Mexico In-Person Votes by Party Registration
      .
      Party Count Percent
      .
      Republicans 60,325 47.7%
      Democrats 51,197 40.4%
      No Party Affil 13,747 10.9%
      Minor 723 0.6%

      TOTAL 126,584 100.0%
      .
      I’m not saying they will but, if they do. WOW

    404. MichiganGuy says:

      Will win^

    405. Brion says:

      Kenosha was 47% Trump 46.9 Clinton in 2016

    406. Hugh says:

      426. I am thinking there will be much less of a souls to the polls this year in nc or FL

    407. Smack says:

      Where are people getting this Kenosha early voting numbers from?

      Please provide a link.

    408. Smack says:

      MichiganGuy,

      Can you please provide link to New Mexico early voting numbers? Thanks.

    409. Hugh says:

      Just so everyone knows. My guess is early in person voting in Florida is a bit Slower due to horrible storms yesterday and again today.

    410. Hugh says:

      Oh boy!

      Paul Sperry
      @paulsperry_
      ·
      9h
      BREAKING: Document reveals Biden family friend admits “finding employment” for Hunter on Wall Street — including a whopping $1.2 million salary — specifically as a special favor to Joe Biden, who requested it, even tho his son had no financial experience

      Chump Chump

    411. SoHope says:

      Everyone please post links to your reporting site of choice for early vote info (other than Targetsmart)

    412. jaichind says:

      ean T at RCP
      @SeanTrende
      ·
      24m
      Team Trump: “He tried to use his connections to help out his loser son with a drug problem who had no direction in life!”

      Me, a father: “Well, yeah!”

      -> The problem with this logic is the type of job Hunter Biden got clearly is a payoff job and something he was clearly unqualified for. If Joe Biden used his influence to get Hunter Biden a middle tier office job that paid 100K that might be a different story and be more aligned with the sentiments Sean Trende indicated.

    413. dblaikie says:

      426 With the worship restrictions in “souls to the polls” are not going to be nearly as effective this year.

    414. dblaikie says:

      For those who are interested Rasmussen tracking is unchanged today. This has to mean that the head to head being released at noon will move towards Trump. I predict Rasmussen will show a 2 or 3 point race. Just two weeks ago it was 12.

    415. JeffP says:

      GOP had big turnout in Washoe County in NV. Clark in person not going that great. NV is in play too it looks like on early vote.

    416. JeffP says:

      Sorry Clark county not going that great for Dems!!!

      With mail in vote it’s hard to tell what this all means. But this election is not close to national polls…

    417. Wes says:

      Democrats went from a 347k advantage in early voting on Monday to a 349k advantage yesterday. That’s the slowest gain Dems have had since early voting began. I would have to see further results to see if it’s a trend, but Dems may well have peaked in early voting given the five-digit daily increases they were enjoying.

    418. Gatorjoel says:

      So while I don’t like the other poseur troll taking my name and conflating it with one of the greatest rock and roll musicians of all time, I will say chomp chomp like he does :). Florida is gone for Trump as is the presidency based on the EV numbers in FL!! Looks like between COVID and Bloomberg’s ad spending, will be way too much for Trump to overcome. He will he first presidential candidate to lose his “home state” in forever!!

    419. Todd McCain says:

      Looks like the GOP won both Clark and Washoe yesterday; but still DEMS have a statewide lead of roughly 45K. I think once it/if hits 70K, that the the ballgame if I remember Ralston’s reporting accurately.

    420. Chicon says:

      Too much variation in the Rasmussen poll for my liking. Not daily bounces, but longer term. I don’t think the electorate has changed as much as they indicate.

    421. Marv says:

      dblaikie,

      I agree with you. It will probably be a 2-3 point Biden lead,
      RAS is still using a D+4 weighted sample. Should be D+2 or 3.

    422. Chicon says:

      Wes, are you still feeling comfortable with NC Prez and Senate?

    423. SoHope says:

      Gore/TN :/

    424. Stonewall DW says:

      So the troll thinks 200k new FL voters registered as Republicans so they can vote for Biden.

    425. dblaikie says:

      Folks stuff is happening in Nevada. First if the trend continues Washoe by the end of early in person voting will be basically tied when coupled with the mail in vote. The point being all signs point to a huge GOP turnout on election. In 2016 Clinton won Washoe by 3000 votes. If this trend continues Trump is going to win Washoe by 5 to ten thousand votes.

      Second the cow county rural vote has not come in yet. As the left wing blogger John Ralston puts it, it will be a GOP Tsunami when it comes in.

      Third the GOP won in person voting in Clark by 3000 votes driving the so-called Clark firewall back towards 40000 votes. That firewall may have to be 80000 to 90000 this year. We will see what happens when Clark reports mail in vote. However I believe that is beginning to taper off.

      Ralston tried to put the best spin he could but I believe he is scared. Here is what he tweeted: “Good day again for GOP in early, in-person voting. Dems still have sizable statewide ballot lead, but GOP made inroads.”

      Folks the Silver State is in play. Now we know why Trump went there. In addition this validates putting emphasis in watching where the candidates go. Or should I say candidate since Joe is afraid to come out. He better do something. 13 days to go.

    426. SoHope says:

      Its a big f-ing deal that university of Michigan issues a stay at home order and vacated the campus until after election day.

    427. Will says:

      Wes

      In New Hanover Co, the REPS are gaining on Dems. Margin now less than 4000 countywide and less than 60 in my precinct.

      Please note that the 2016 carolinaelections.com data does not include election day totals. 5.4 million cast votes in 2016

      I think trends are good for Reps

    428. Stonewall DW says:

      450 – so what are we going to do when on election eve the MI Gov announces that Covid-19 is spreading too fast in MI, and so the whole state must be shut down, including polling places. She will say if you didn’t vote early, its too bad.

    429. MrVito says:

      Off to the races in Sumter… First 20 minutes is 165R and 35D.

    430. Wes says:

      Yes, I am, Chicon. NC-Gov is one step away from a lost cause though.

    431. Stonewall DW says:

      IBD/TIPP holding…national poll matchup 47/49.

    432. PhilS says:

      SC will invalidate the MI election. Violation of Equal Protection.

      No EVs for Mi.

    433. Marv says:

      RAS unchanged @ 49/50

      Strong Approval Index: -5 (+2)

      (A little improvement there)

    434. Sy says:

      “450 – so what are we going to do when on election eve the MI Gov announces that Covid-19 is spreading too fast in MI, and so the whole state must be shut down, including polling places. She will say if you didn’t vote early, its too bad.”

      The court will vacate that order the second its announced.

    435. Gordon Allen says:

      Ras 5 day approval 48.1. Last week his head to head number was about 2 points below his approval. This would be 46. Likely based on that 46-49, unless Biden has collapsed some.

    436. OHIO Joe says:

      Earlier this week, Barris said that the President could be stronger than some think in AZ because of 2016 Johnson voters voting for the President this time, I think the same could be happening is NM as well as NV.

    437. PhilS says:

      Any time there is a significant deviation from established procedures that affects a portion of the population differently, Equal Protection of 14th Amendment is in play.

      That’s how they decided in Bush v Gore 2000. Because Gore asked for recount in only three counties, the SC decided that it violated the equal protection clause, depriving voters in other counties of their rights.

      Same situation with MI if Whitmer tries shenanigans. And that is why the PA changes to mail-in timelines will be thrown out.

    438. jaichind says:

      IBD/TIPP even though Trump and Biden stayed the same as yesterday in 4 way race. Jorgensen went from 1 to 3. Part of that increase seems like hidden Trump voters parking their vote.

    439. Stonewall DW says:

      458 – probably, but just trying to point out the sort of things that are going to happen on election day. Just going through that process of announcing, and then being forced to re-open, it will still cost the GOP votes–those who got in line, then were turned away, and not all will come back later. Its all about costing the GOP votes.

      Just like the tradition every four years from Russert to Wallace, where they say, “Well if its too close to call in South Carolina, then its going to be a long night for [the Republican].”

      They know that somewhere in a battleground state, maybe one GOP voter hears that and gets discouraged and gets out of line and goes home.

    440. PhilS says:

      The SC can invalidate the whole MI election if it wanted to. Then the option for Whitmer would be to hold another election certified by Dec 12, or lose the entire EV in electoral college.

    441. Tina says:

      Anything new in the “laptop from hell?”

    442. PhilS says:

      A third option is MI legislature submits a slate of electors. Remember that MI Legislature is majority Republican.

    443. Tina says:

      Listen to this cbs interview in PA. They are mentioning jobs and no longer having to live pay check to paycheck.

      https://twitter.com/SteveGuest/status/1318904716928159749

    444. Ridin' with Biden says:

      It was wonderful to take a day trip to Pensacola yesterday. What a joy to be able to spend time with my children and grandchildren.

      Just as joyous, the early voting continues to look amazing for Mr. Biden and Ms. Harris.

      Any new fanciful fairy tales from Mr. Guiliani?

    445. dblaikie says:

      In this cycle I don’t think we can consider the norms of early voting in the past to be normative today. This mail in voting has messed this up. Make it hard to read the tea leaves.

      The only thing we know is that because of their response to Covid Dems are far more likely to mail in their ballot than risk themselves by going to vote in person. The GOP is just the opposite. With this in mind we have no real way to gauge GOP strength except to look at early in person voting. Using that metric we can believe that GOP turnout on election day is going to huge.

    446. OHIO Joe says:

      “Just as joyous, the early voting continues to look amazing for Mr. Biden and Ms. Harris.” Talk about a dream world.

    447. PhilS says:

      Pedophile Gator,

      Pedophile Joe still sucking his thumb (or whatever) in his basement. Are you done with him today?

    448. Ridin' with Biden says:

      I will have to stick to my prediction of the Rasmussen poll. I predict a 2 point margin in Mr. Biden’s favor. The comeback narrative continues.

      I do enjoy Mr. Rasmussen’s polls.

      Are there no new fairy tales from Mr. Guiliani? Golly, so very disappointing.

    449. MrVito says:

      TargetSmart doesn’t seem very interested in updating their numbers all of a sudden.

    450. Waingro says:

      USC/Dornsife finally showing some tightening in it’s HTH and it’s generic ballot poll.

      I predict come Monday morning there will be some massive herding/correcting as this race moves to where it’s really always been: a close election.

    451. brent says:

      Jon Ralston
      @RalstonReports
      ·
      42m
      GOP beat Dems in Clark early voting again on Tuesday — by 3K ballots out of about 30K cast. Will update blog later this AM (still waiting on mail).

      Good day again for GOP in early, in-person voting. Dems still have sizable statewide ballot lead, but GOP made inroads.

      13 days.

    452. Stonewall DW says:

      More examples of pollsters starting to get honest

      Co/efficient (D)

      Kansas:
      New poll: 56/39
      last poll: 53/41

      Yesterday it was Hendrix College in AR, where they changed from…

      Trump 49/47 to
      Trump 58/34

      They want their poll of record to be more accurate.

    453. Waingro says:

      #475, Ralston starting to panic a bit?

    454. Waingro says:

      #476, let the herding begin

    455. Stonewall DW says:

      and of course the cowards at the NY Times released their FINAL national matchup poll yesterday. Two weeks out. Showing Biden +9, and they will be able to say, well our poll was spot on, its just that there was a late shift in the final two weeks.

    456. Waingro says:

      #479, and thus still earn their “A” rating from 538 LOL.

    457. PresidentPaul! says:

      incestuous “Ridin” with Biden

    458. Stonewall DW says:

      “#479, and thus still earn their “A” rating from 538 LOL.”

      That is so 2012…get with the times. Now Silver gives you an A grade only for saying the Dem is ahead 17 points when really its tied.

      Results don’t matter after 2016. Just intentions.
      Just the setting of the narrative.

      Trafalgar says its close, and that is not an acceptable narrative, so they get an C-.

    459. Sy says:

      Riden with Biden gets a whole new meaning after the laptop story.

    460. Stonewall DW says:

      Its why after the election is over, my spreadsheet is ready to receive the results and it will automatically calculate letter grades for each pollster, based on ACTUAL RESULTS. Its all setup to treat each poll like a college course, that gets a GPA and letter grade based on how far off from the actual margin. Here is what I have showing 2020 polling, but against 2016 results:

      ABC News/Washington Post – C
      ALG Research (D) – D
      AtlasIntel – B+
      Baldwin Wallace University – C
      Big Data Poll (Richard Baris) – A-
      Change Research (D) – C
      Civiqs (D) – D
      CNN/SSRS – D
      Cygnal ® – B
      Data for Progress (D) – D
      David Binder Research – D
      Democracy Institute – B+
      Emerson College – C+
      Fox News – D
      Garin-Hart-Yang Res. Grp (D) – D
      GBAO (D) – C-
      Global Strategy Group (D) – D
      GQR Research (D) – D
      Gravis Marketing – D
      Harper Polling ® – B
      HarrisX – C-
      Hart Research Associates* – D
      HIT Strategies (D) – F
      Hodas & Associates (D) – D
      Insider Advantage – B-
      IPSOS – C+
      Keiser Family Foundation – C+
      Marist College – D
      Mason-Dixon – C+
      Monmouth University – B-
      Morning Consult – C
      On Message ® – B+
      Opinium – D
      PPP (D) – D
      Quinnipiac University – D
      Rasmussen-Pulse Opinion – C
      Redfield & Wilton Strategies – D
      RMG Research – C+
      Siena College/NY Times – D
      Spry Strategies ® – C+
      Suffolk University – C
      SurveyUSA – C
      Susquehanna – B-
      Target Smart – C
      TIPP – D
      Trafalgar Group – B+
      Tyson Group – D
      University of Mass. – Lowell – B-
      YouGov – C+
      Zogby – C+

    461. Ridin' with Biden says:

      “Riden with Biden gets a whole new meaning after the laptop story.”

      ***

      Would you be so kind as to write out the story? I’m oh so disappointed in the low quality fiction put out by Mr. Guiliani, Mr. Murdoch, Mr. Hannity, Mr. Bannon, and Mr. Mac. Thank you in advance.

      It’s a wonderful day for some reading at the beach today. Fiction is my favourite genre of book.

    462. Scooterboy says:

      Pollwatch-“ Trump Within 2.5% Nationally in Today’s IBD/TIPP POLL:

      Biden 48.5
      Trump 46%

      (NOTE: Jed Graham of IBD says that Biden’s +7.1 from days ago will drop from the average: “That might mean further tightening”)

    463. Phil says:

      Baris Inside the Numbers to begin in five minutes. Should be particularly interesting today.

    464. eriepa says:

      Here’s some fiction for your reading pleasure-the Steele Dossier, and Democrat articles of impeachment, enjoy!

    465. mnw says:

      484 Stonewall

      Thanks for that, & all your other work.

    466. Chicon says:

      Phil – how’s the covid-19 situation at your house?

    467. Phil says:

      I’m back to feeling normal, Chicon. Wife is also symptom free.

    468. Ridin' with Biden says:

      Oh my goodness. So it really is true. The laptop story has become a dud. Yikes.

      I thought it would at the least be accompanied by amusing and fantastical reading. Alas, no such works of literature.

      So another pile of rubbish.

      Laptop – dud
      Unmasking – dud
      Antifa shooting the protestor – dud

      That is a drag.

    469. Tina says:

      Phil, good news, but were you positive. I may have missed the post, but the last one I saw was you were waiting.

    470. Chicon says:

      Good deal, Phil.

    471. Robbie says:

      Phil says:
      October 21, 2020 at 11:02 am
      I’m back to feeling normal, Chicon. Wife is also symptom free.

      – Glad to read this.

    472. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      490,000 vote lead for Democrats in Florida – even when factoring in the small win for Republicans in in-person voting yesterday. Note: the Democrats gain in VBM was larger than the Republicans lead in in-person voting. The gap continues to grow. Rump isn’t draining the swamp, he is being swallowed up by one.

      Chomp Chomp

    473. Ridin' with Biden says:

      My prayers for you, Mr. Phil and your wife.

    474. Waingro says:

      Bizarre Monmouth poll, which also has Greenfield tied with Ernst in RV’s but leading Ernst by 3 (50-47) in a higher turnout model, but up 51-45 in a lower turnout. Also has Biden up by 5 in lower turnout – -completely contradictory to their earlier polling.

      MonmouthPoll
      @MonmouthPoll
      ·
      14m
      IOWA POLL: Biden gains in presidential race
      Registered voters:
      48%
      @realDonaldTrump
      (50% in Sept.)
      47%
      @JoeBiden
      (44%)

      Likely voters, high turnout:
      47% Trump (49% in Sept.)
      50% Biden (46%)

      http://monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_IA_102120/

    475. SoHope says:

      In person early vote will stay strong while VBM will significantly taper off near election day…and then election day voting will be an onslaught.

    476. Marv says:

      Phil,

      Good to hear that you beat the China virus. Aggies are tough.

    477. John says:

      New Ras Arizona poll….Biden +2
      https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/arizona_biden_48_trump_46

      PS – I thought Robert Cahaly of the Traflagar Group says to throw out any state poll that polls under 1,000

    478. Tina says:

      Chanel Rion OAN
      @ChanelRion
      ·
      18m
      UPDATE: Multiple
      @OANN
      reporters have now viewed the emails, photos, and videos on the #HunterBiden hard drive.

      We can confirm:

      There appear to be not one but several images of a minor that justify immediate attention.

      We have reason to believe the minor is a US citizen.

    479. Waingro says:

      Prepare for more garbage polling…

      Quinnipiac University Poll
      @QuinnipiacPoll
      Tim Malloy & Mary Snow to discuss results of #Pennsylvania and #Texas polls of likely voters regarding:
      2020 presidential election
      Texas Senate race
      TODAY
      #2020Election
      #TXSen

    480. Chicon says:

      Florida musings….

      TargetSmart has the following Dem leads for Florida as of a few minutes ago

      Registered 500,000
      Modeled 340,000

      There are 580,000 unaffiliated voters who have cast ballots so far in Florida. It appears that TargetSmart’s modeling shows that of those unaffiliated voters, 370,000 voted for Trump and 210,000 voted for Biden (this accounts for the 160,000 voted differential between the “registered” lead and the “modeled” lead).

    481. MichiganGuy says:

      N/T

    482. Gordon Allen says:

      Rasmussen has to stick with Biden plus 5. Any lower would make Biden ahead in Arizona and Ohio inexplicable- completely.

    483. WizardofCozz says:

      Baris is hypothesizing right now that the reason that Trumps approval rating is higher than the polls, is that their is a swath of voters who know he’s the right person for the job, but are tired of the rollercoaster of the administration. It’s an interesting take.

    484. John says:

      New Ras poll…Biden’s lead down to 3.

    485. Steant1965 says:

      Let’s look at yougov/economist poll that says Biden is +9. Trump leads with I’s by 3 and the two are almost even with their own party. Yet Trump is down. These polls are jokes.

    486. John says:

      “In person early voting off the charts for R’s today (Florida)….+17,000 in the last two hours…IPEV R’s now lead by 58,000”

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