2020 EV WATCH
Trump : 187
Biden : 351
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GOP : 48
DEM : 50
IND : 2
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    One Poll Shows Trump Leads Biden By 3% in FL, Another Shows Biden Leads Trump By 2% in FL

    We two new polls today for the state Florida that give opposing results. Rasmussen Reports shows Donald Trump with a 3% lead over Joe Biden while St. Pete Polls goes in the other direction and has Biden up by 2%.

    PRESIDENT – FLORIDA (Rasmussen)
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 49%
    Joe Biden (D) 46%

    PRESIDENT – FLORIDA (St Pete Polls)
    Joe Biden (D) 49%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 47%

    The Rasmussen poll was done October 20-21 among 800 likely voters. The St Pete Polls poll was done October 21-22 among 2527 likely voters.

    Posted by Dave at 1:09 pm
    Filed under: General | Comments (757)

    757 Responses to “One Poll Shows Trump Leads Biden By 3% in FL, Another Shows Biden Leads Trump By 2% in FL”

    1. Tina says:

      Theo Keith
      @TheoKeith
      · 1h
      Trump’s campaign is doing a last-minute reversal on Minnesota.

      Trump went dark on TV here this week — after six weeks of cutting reserved ad time — but campaign manager Bill Stepien says there will be a major a buy in the campaign’s final week.

    2. Tina says:

      koning ? Retweeted

      Peoples_Pundit
      @Peoples_Pundit
      ·
      9m
      3 polls now have Trump at 50% in Florida. 1 online only (+2), 1 mix-mode online & phone (+3/+4 w/ leaners). 1 phone only to landlines & cells (+4).

      3 weeks ago, we found his approval at 50.5% in Florida, though he only led 1.6% in the high/mid 40s leaner depending.

      Makes sense.

    3. Smack says:

      All Early Voting – Florida

      Oct 22nd / 4:41pm

      DEM: 2,064,996 44.40%

      GOP: 1,636,887 35.19%

      Oct 23rd / 8:16am

      DEM: 2,124,196 44.18%

      GOP: 1,698,311 35.31%

      Oct 23rd / 9:05am

      DEM: 2,132,054 44.13%

      GOP: 1,707,853 35.35%

      Oct 23rd / 9:35am

      DEM: 2,147,688 44.00%

      GOP: 1,731,145 35.47%

      Oct 23rd / 10:35am

      DEM: 2,151,991 43.97%

      GOP: 1,737,705 35.51%

      Oct 23rd / 12:15pm

      DEM: 2,282,173 43.78%

      GOP: 1,777,218 35.66%

      GOP Registered Voters in Florida continue to be all fired up.

    4. michael corleone says:

      Hah Nevada just updated and with a lot of rurals still to report statewide D lead is down to 48.6k. Clark firewall remains at 60k D advantage after yesterday’s in person vote is added.

    5. Stonewall DW says:

      Democratic Party Platform:
      1) Anti-Police
      2) Pro-Looting
      3) Sieze retirement savings
      4) Sieze guns
      5) Pro-illegal immigration
      6) Rural America must bail out the failed Democrat cities
      7) If you are not a person of color, you are a racist whether you want to be or not.
      8) Pro-mutilation of young children
      9) Open prison doors and let them all go free
      10) End the free speech of anyone who dissents
      11) Anti-National Anthem
      12) Pro-Mail out ballots to all people: citizens, non-citizens, living, and dead.
      13) Pro-anarchy
      14) Pro-cancel culture
      15) Pro-rationing of gov’t controlled healthcare
      16) Pro-Force taxpayers to pay off student loan debt instead of the students who took the loans.
      17) Pro-“Green” new deal to devastate the economy with crippling regulations and destroy the energy industry.
      18) Pro-“Republicans are enemies of the state” (so aim your weapons at them carefully)
      19) Endless mob violence unless you vote Democrats into office
      20) Pro-never ending shut downs to keep everyone under government control
      21) Pro-send millions of jobs back to China
      22) Pro-never ending of jobless benefits
      23) Pro-living wage
      24) DC to become 51st state
      25) Anti-Peace in the middle east
      26) Pro-sex with minors
      27) Anti-vaccine until after the election.
      28) Pro-replacing lower court system with lynch mobs.
      29) Pro-Packing the SCOTUS with commies
      30) Promised to BAN fracking
      31) Promise to END THE OIL INDUSTRY

    6. MrVito says:

      GOP has cut D lead in Wisconsin from 10 to 5.5 in Target Smart model… which is the one they adjusted with the “Biden model.” In the original model they had, it is R+4 per NBC.

    7. Dylan says:

      Where on earth does someone like Frank Luntz get off saying it is “virtually impossible” for Trump to win? Unbelievable. I cannot wait for the (hopefully) eventual egg on the face for these Fox-affiliated Never Trumpers. I mean, why doesn’t he at least say “I find it unlikely that he could win but . . . .”

      As an aside–Newt Gingrich is done. he has about as much energy as Biden–it’s time for hi to retire to his Italian Villa.

    8. MrVito says:

      In Michigan it is R+2 in the original and D+5 in the adjusted.

    9. Stonewall DW says:

      6 – he read that its virtually impossible from Silver’s page.

    10. Eleqtpi@yahoo says:

      Luntz said the same in 2016.

    11. Stonewall DW says:

      I suppose if Trump wins on election night, they can just adjust the numbers so Biden wins.

    12. michael corleone says:

      Also on Nevada there seems to have been a big mail-in vote dump in Washoe (this is not reflected on Washoe site, just SOS site) and Rs really made up ground. Mail vote deficit is now down to 9k and the overall Washoe deficit is showing only 1400. Possible there was an error but we will see. That’s a big move. Also the statewide tabulated lead for the Ds does not include yesterday’s Clark in-person vote.

    13. Dylan says:

      Well, whatever happens, we REALLY need a new crop of talking heads. Luntz, Noonan, Silver, Brazille, on and on and on ENOUGH ALREADY. Pure purgatory listening to these halitosis spewing automotons!

    14. Scooterboy says:

      Luntz is the dufus who guaranteed Hillary would be President. I wouldn’t listen to anything that Luntz has to say.

    15. Dylan says:

      1. The First Debate is the only one that matters.
      2. The last debate is the only one that matters.
      3. The stakes could not be higher than what is on the line at the last debate.
      4. The last debate was interesting but didn’t really move the needle.

      How does ANYONE listen to any of these morons cycle after cycle with the same recirculated left overs. . . .

    16. Scooterboy says:

      Pence will be in Minnesota on Monday. I follow someone on twitter who tracks the voting in Minnesota. He says things are looking very good for Trump in Minnesota. Apparently Trumps internals are saying the same.

      I always thought that Minnesota may be the biggest surprise of this election. We’ll see.

    17. Scooterboy says:

      If you want to follow mngander on twitter, that’s the person who is tracking the Minnesota early vote. Just put out an update earlier today.

    18. Dylan says:

      17–If Trump does manage to squeak it in MN, can he pull the GOP Senate candidate across or is Tina Smith just too big a hurdle to defeat?

    19. mnw says:

      If he has sufficient confidence that he’s winning enough of the battleground states, I can see a good case for Trump going to TX for a rally– there are an unusually large number of House seats that are rated tossups there.

      However, something does seem to be happening in MN. So… maybe another trip to The Land of 10000 Lakes.

    20. MrVito says:

      I think Lewis will run ahead of Trump in MN.

    21. MikeP says:

      I just talked to my friend of 25yrs this morning who lives in Las Vegas. Even though my is voting for Trump, he is friends with the Gov. S. The Gov. Seslak said believe Trump won the debate last night. Also conceded that Trump may win the state of Nevada. Interesting!

    22. SoHope says:

      Apparently there is a MN poll that has Lewis up by 1 in the MN senate race…we will see

    23. Dylan says:

      If Trump goes to TX for a rally, it’s gonna cause the left leaning pundits to have a wet dream regardless of the strategy considerations for trying to flip some house seats. He better be darn sure he has the battlegrounds secure.

    24. Scooterboy says:

      Ya think ?

      MSNBC’s Craig Melvin:

      “Mr. Biden says he plans to transition the country away from the oil industry.

      “One could surmise that something like that might not play well in a good swath of Pennsylvania or Texas even.”

    25. OHIO Joe says:

      “I think Lewis will run ahead of Trump in MN.” That is good to know. Sounds like he is the next James. I will donate more money to him this weekend.

    26. Gordon Allen says:

      Dylan: Don’t listen to them.Other than occasionally Fox and friends in the morning,and Carlson also occasionally, I’ve tuned out Fox News completely.
      Do you get Fox Business? Much better.

    27. MrVito says:

      Right now The GOP is crushing it in every house seat considered in play except TX-23.

    28. MrVito says:

      27 in Texas that is.

    29. mnw says:

      The Minnesota-based Powerline blog gurus believe Lewis can win. Those guys have earned my respect and attention in the past, fwiw.

    30. Scooterboy says:

      Baris- “ DEM internals have Cunningham up at most 2 points now. I’m told it was +6-8 before the scandal, which they told me they believed voters would believe is a “family matter” not a “campaign issue.”

      I disagreed, and Tillis is now in a better position than he was against Hagan.

    31. hugh says:

      FLorida latest greatest and after 3 updates in a row of vbm being positive for reps the dems picked up a few votes. VBM does include half hour updates from Broward. It is missing miami dade vbm and in person which have been running pretty close to each other the last couple days. Miami is turning into a disaster for dems.

      vbm 571720
      in person 170595
      Total 401125

    32. OHIO Joe says:

      That is a bit scary that Cunningham was up that high.

    33. hugh says:

      Reps are up about 25K so far today

    34. MrVito says:

      But in Broward I think there The drop box vote is dumped at the end.

    35. hugh says:

      Reps are up about 25K so far today in Florida. I doubt they will keep it up. But it all looks positive in FL for trump

    36. Sheeple,Jr. says:

      Nate Silver/NY Times and Siena have the GOP ahead in all three topline races in Montana:

      https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/mt101820-crosstabs/1bf52689f78606b4/full.pdf

    37. hugh says:

      cunningham is toast. he has no chance none. Those dem internals are a joke. If they exist at all. Every campaign has to do something to give some hope. This sleaze bag his hiding in his basement like joe dementia.

    38. MrVito says:

      All four, I think.

    39. AnthonyPum says:

      ????? ???????????? https://bez-trusov.club/photo/zvezda/ ??????? ??? ??????! 2000 ????????????? ??? ??????
      ????????? ?????????? ???? ????? ??

    40. William says:

      Sumter County Florida In Person early vote now greater than 5-1 republican to democrat. Boom!

    41. MrVito says:

      We may have one more hurricane here before the election.

    42. Sheeple,jr. says:

      Has anyone reported this Rasmussen(less) Poll of NC? To Wit: Trump +1 and the Senate race is dead even.

      https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/north_carolina_trump_48_biden_47

    43. JeffP says:

      There are so many great GOP congressional candidates. Tons of sharp very women, Hispanics, Blacks, and Alpha military men.

      Cream always rises to the top.

    44. JeffP says:

      *very sharp women

    45. MrVito says:

      Sooner poll has Kendra Horn ahead by just under 2% in Oklahoma 5.

    46. Marv says:

      BOOM

      Susquehanna AZ

      Trump 46.6
      Biden 46.2

      McSally 50
      Kelly 47

      https://amgreatness.com/2020/10/23/trump-takes-the-lead-in-az-in-new-poll/

    47. Todd McCain says:

      If McSally could somehow pull that race out, it would DOOM any chance of DEM control of the Senate.

    48. SoHope says:

      GOP needs that senate seat…come on McSally

    49. Dylan says:

      Is the McSally seat a 6 year seat? or just completion of MCcain term?

    50. Todd McCain says:

      McSally has to go up again in 2022, which is ridiculous.

    51. SoHope says:

      I think its 2 years

    52. SoHope says:

      So if she wins and Trump wins odd are she loses in 2022 but the GOP needs her for getting judges in and hopefully replacing Thomas with a 50 year old conservative justice.

    53. Hugh says:

      Below 400k now in florida

    54. SoHope says:

      Isnt AZ doing a permanent early voter list for giving out mail-in ballots every election? DEMs are signing up in larger numbers which leads me to believe they will have an easier time turning out in midterm elections.

    55. Stonewall DW says:

      wow, I had to click the link and make sure it wasn’t a typo. Hard to believe Trump running behind McSally.

    56. Wes says:

      Wouldn’t it be a delicious irony if Republicans beat all these Dem nominees handpicked by Schumer?

      I have to assume Dems might start looking at New Senate leadership if Dems failed after being the favorites to recapture the Senate this year.

    57. Wes says:

      McSally is running to complete McCain’s unexpired term. She has to run for the full six years in 2022.

    58. MrVito says:

      Has Popeye’s made a statement about Joe Biden’s opposition to Poor Boys?

    59. MrVito says:

      More Mideast Peace deals helps in upper Midwest.

    60. BRENT says:

      Larry Schweikart
      @LarrySchweikart
      ·
      34m
      GOP just exploding in FL.
      In Person Early Vote
      R +170,595. Could hit +200,000 today.

    61. Todd McCain says:

      The lead is now 177,000 votes for IPEV in Florida.

    62. Tina says:

      Marc Levy
      @timelywriter
      HARRISBURG, Pa. (@AP) _ Pennsylvania’s Supreme Court ruled unanimously Friday on a key concern over mail-in ballots in the battleground state, prohibiting counties from rejecting ballots because the voter’s signature on it may not resemble their signature on their registration.
      11:09 AM · Oct 23, 2020

    63. MrVito says:

      Take a minute to consider RCP now has Minnesota as closer than Michigan.

    64. jason says:

      I think these polls showing Biden ahead in Fl are just to lure the Trump campaign to keep spending money there.

    65. jason says:

      HARRISBURG, Pa. (@AP) _ Pennsylvania’s Supreme Court ruled unanimously Friday on a key concern over mail-in ballots in the battleground state, prohibiting counties from rejecting ballots because the voter’s signature on it may not resemble their signature on their registration”

      Yeah, you certainly don’t want the same person who registered also casting the vote.

    66. MrVito says:

      Take a minute to consider that the St Pete poll is the one that put out Biden winning Sarasota countY by double digits… which is one of the areas I complained about while watching Nate Cohn live poll Florida in 2018. They were getting far too many Dem voters between Tampa and Ft Myers.

    67. mnw says:

      I don’t believe McS is running ahead of Trump in AZ. I also vaguely recall that Susquehannah polls have been pretty bad, altho I can’t cite chapter & verse like Stonewall.

      I think the NYT/Siena MT poll showing the GOP leading for POTUS, Senate & House At-Large looks 1) low for Trump; 2) low for Daines; & 3) low for Rosendale, too. Just a hunch…

      but MT is another state where you wouldn’t expect “transitioning away” to be a big hit.

    68. MrVito says:

      No, I’m fairly sure Susquehanna has been pretty good.

      I think you are thinking of Suffolk.

    69. Annie says:

      A family member told me that Hunter Biden was emailing Frank “the toupee” Luntz a while back, asking Luntz to do better by his father in polling and assessments. Now, I take everything that comes out of Luntz’s mouth with a grain of salt (actually, always did).

    70. Gordon Allen says:

      The PA Supreme Court sure is doing it’s not. Can’t get ACB on the Court soon enough.

    71. Tina says:

      What about the kids in cages wrapped in foil?

      Donald J. Trump
      @realDonaldTrump
      ·
      24m
      Joe Biden was very disrespectful to President Obama at last night’s debate when he said that he, Joe, “was Vice President, not President,” when trying to make excuses for their failed immigration policies. I wonder what “O” was thinking when he heard that one?

    72. mnw says:

      Trump campaign claiming biggest online FR day ever, after debate last night.

    73. Robbie says:

      Wes says:
      October 23, 2020 at 2:39 pm
      McSally is running to complete McCain’s unexpired term. She has to run for the full six years in 2022.

      – My guess is Kelly wins, but 2022 should be a very, very good year for Republicans if Biden wins. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Ducey challenge Kelly and win.

    74. Todd McCain says:

      GOP IPEV lead is now 180K.

    75. Robbie says:

      jason says:
      October 23, 2020 at 2:56 pm
      HARRISBURG, Pa. (@AP) _ Pennsylvania’s Supreme Court ruled unanimously Friday on a key concern over mail-in ballots in the battleground state, prohibiting counties from rejecting ballots because the voter’s signature on it may not resemble their signature on their registration”

      Yeah, you certainly don’t want the same person who registered also casting the vote.

      – No doubt they wanted to get this ruling in before ACB is on the Supreme Court and Roberts can rule with the libs and give them a win.

    76. Tina says:

      No souls to dah polls?

    77. mnw says:

      Fwiw, a Change Research/CNBC poll released this week finds that 53% of Biden voters say they’ve already voted, versus 25% of Trump voters.

    78. NYCmike says:

      Robbie still thinks 2022 will be the same old, same old, despite the media and the Democratic Party showing exactly what will be done to change the status quo.

    79. Tina says:

      FWIW, Sundance at the Cth indicates that Florida will be the 2016 Ohio. Won by trump by a bugger margin. I believe he is a Florida resident.

    80. Marv says:

      Key data point in the AZ poll can be found in Q14.

      From what you are hearing, who are your neighbors are voting for?

      Trump 47
      Biden 19

      The other data point is in Q14.

      Regardless of who you are voting for, who do you think will win the election?

      Trump 46
      Biden 37

      https://overland.amgreatness.com/app/uploads/2020/10/Toplines-ArizonaStatewide-CFAG-Oct2020.pdf

    81. BRENT says:

      Guiness Records States:
      The current fully authenticated person to which any human has ever collected a Government Paycheck for doing Nothing is 47 years 11 days by Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. (USA) 1973-2016

    82. Tina says:

      I just dropped off my ballot. One vote for Trump from SF, CA.

    83. MrVito says:

      TargetSmart…. battleground states EV

      Democrats: 23.6% did not vote 2016
      Republicans: 21.9% did not vote 2016

      (Presidential Battleground States: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, Virginia, Wisconsin)

    84. Phil says:

      So TargerSmart considers Texas a battleground state.

      Okie dokie.

    85. MrVito says:

      So does RCP because of the polling.

    86. Tina says:

      This “person” is dumb.

      Rep Frederica Wilson
      @RepWilson
      · 17h
      Who prepays taxes?

    87. Annie says:

      72. Tina…I see what Trump was doing there with “I wonder what “O” was thinking when he heard that one?” “O” is mentioned in the Hunter emails. Such a clever president we have…

    88. Phil says:

      I live in Texas. Biden isn’t competitive here. End of story.

    89. MrVito says:

      I’m with you, Phil… have you seen the EV margins in the house races?

    90. Annie says:

      75. Robbie…”2022 should be a very, very good year for Republicans if Biden wins.” 2022 should be a very, very good year for Republicans with Trump continuing as president, too.

    91. MrVito says:

      89 good grief.

    92. Tina says:

      ChuckGrassley
      @ChuckGrassley
      ·
      39m
      Last month Sen Johnson & I issued report detailing suspicious+problematic financial transactions involving Hunter Biden &foreign biz partners New info on HBiden laptop & validated by Tony B substantiates our findings &raises new questions FBI now involved America deserves answers
      345
      901
      1.9K
      The Reckoning ? Retweeted

      ChuckGrassley
      @ChuckGrassley
      ·
      36m
      My report w Sen Johnson showed HBiden moved over $1 million to VPs brother James Biden & Lion Hall Group They wouldn’t answer questions abt the suspicious transaction & bank shut down account

      If VP Biden wants Americans votes, he owes us answers

    93. Tina says:

      The coyote prepays taxes.

    94. Wes says:

      Annie, 2022 is likely to be a disaster for Republicans if Trump wins.

      Just being honest.

    95. Phil says:

      I have not, Vito. Suburban districts here are being saturated with health care ads on behalf of Democratic House candidates. Of course Republicans walked right into that with the politically stupid nomination of Barrett. Major unforced error by Trump. He could have gotten all the benefits Barrett could have provided without the Barrett downside on health care with Lagoa.

      Morons around Trump.

    96. Stonewall DW says:

      funny…dems now releasing some state polls from early Oct to show Biden surge, to counteract the narrative of what happened last night.

    97. Gordon Allen says:

      How was Lagoa different jurisprudentially from Barrett so as to affect ” health care”?? The Democrat’s would have said exactly the same things. EXACTLY. Barrett showed tremendous class and intelligence; do we know Lagoa would have done as well? How?

    98. hugh says:

      Fwiw, a Change Research/CNBC poll released this week finds that 53% of Biden voters say they’ve already voted, versus 25% of Trump voters.

      Unless that same poll shows trump bleeding rep cross over votes, that result is mathematically impossible. One more reason to trash can it.

    99. MrVito says:

      The ones on RCP…

      TX7 +15000
      TX32 +20000
      TX10 +20000
      TX22 +30000
      TX24 +35000
      TX25 +35000
      TX21 +40000
      TX31 +45000

      And

      TX23 -10000

    100. Gordon Allen says:

      Stonewall. I think Biden peaked 3 weeks ago; if I were them,why not?

    101. Annie says:

      Wes…I’m not so sure about that. Only if people stay home like they did in 2018. I think if Biden gets in and Dems get control of Congress and the courts, it really won’t be very good for Republicans ever again. Remember, I live in California, in probably one of the most liberal towns in California. We once had Republican mayors here, and Republican governors. As soon as Democrats got a toe-hold in the legislature and the governor’s office, they quicker began gerrymandering and passing policy that now makes it next to impossible for a Republican to hold state-wide office. I can see this happening nationally…why this election matters so much.

    102. Phil says:

      Barrett is on record in her writings on Obamacare. Lagoa has no paper trail on that one. You don’t want healthcare elevated as an issue. That hurts Republican candidates with women and even working class women.

    103. Robbie says:

      Annie says:
      October 23, 2020 at 3:28 pm
      75. Robbie…”2022 should be a very, very good year for Republicans if Biden wins.” 2022 should be a very, very good year for Republicans with Trump continuing as president, too.

      – The year 2022 and the life we will be able to live should be very good, especially compared to 2020. However, political history shows the sixth year of a presidency is almost always trainwreck for the president’s party. The exception being 1998.

    104. Dylan says:

      Why doesn’t some right leaning conglomerate purchase a left leaning news aggregator (like what was done by the left at Drudge Report) and convert it into a relentlessly right leaning site? Would be hilarious to coopt DailyKos or Huffington or yahoo.

    105. B says:

      I think we all know that even if the Reps would have put up a candidate who was for Obamacare (which they never would do), the attacks would be the same. Remember the “crazy” on both sides dont care about facts nor will they do research themselves, just need a quick tweet to get all the info they need.

    106. Smack says:

      All Early Voting – Florida
      ————-

      Oct 22nd / 4:41pm

      DEM: 2,064,996 44.40%

      GOP: 1,636,887 35.19%

      Oct 23rd / 8:16am

      DEM: 2,124,196 44.18%

      GOP: 1,698,311 35.31%

      Oct 23rd / 9:05am

      DEM: 2,132,054 44.13%

      GOP: 1,707,853 35.35%

      Oct 23rd / 9:35am

      DEM: 2,147,688 44.00%

      GOP: 1,731,145 35.47%

      Oct 23rd / 10:35am

      DEM: 2,151,991 43.97%

      GOP: 1,737,705 35.51%

      Oct 23rd / 12:15pm

      DEM: 2,282,173 43.78%

      GOP: 1,777,218 35.66%

      Oct 23rd / 2:45pm

      DEM: 2,219,717 43.58%

      GOP: 1,825,530 35.84%

    107. MrVito says:

      I think Barrett is turning out okay… first of all, there is no doubt she was impressive. Then, the media did attack her religion, adoption, etc. and morons like Hirono couldn’t help but look stupid on TV. Also, the coverage got drowned out by Trumps COVID. Finally, the GOP is hitting preexisting conditions in ads and not talking about entitlement reform.

    108. Todd McCain says:

      LANDMARK GA:

      TRUMP 49
      BIDEN 45

      PERDUE 50
      OSSOFF 44

    109. MrVito says:

      I think if Dems had hit their mark on health care regarding ACB, we would not have seen the surge in her approval and yes for confirmation.

    110. Todd McCain says:

      Also, another poll showing McSally ahead 49-47 by this outfit Basswood Research. Never heard of them.

    111. MrVito says:

      Smack, the updates are nice, but maybe you could just do the beginning one in the morning and the latest update only.

    112. MrVito says:

      My head just skips everything in between.

    113. jason says:

      LOL

      Madame Speaker, these allegations of corruption involving Joe Biden—” the reporter asked, before Pelosi cut her off.

      “Okay, I’m not answering your question, okay?” Pelosi said. “We’re talking about the coronavirus, that’s what I—I don’t have all day for questions, that’s what we’re taking now.”

    114. Tina says:

      4 peace deals

      0 stupid wars

      Steve Guest
      @SteveGuest
      ·
      2h
      CNN’s Oren Liebermann: the Israel and Sudan deal is a “significant…foreign policy accomplishment by the White House”

    115. Tina says:

      Piglosi has time to talk about $15 pints of ice cream though.

    116. jason says:

      Smack, Vito is a sock puppet so there is just not a lot of head space.

    117. Phil says:

      Agree Barrett did well in the hearings.

    118. dblaikie says:

      I am truly surprised by what is taking place so dramatically in Nevada, my old home state. First they have updated Washoe County and it is now 66609 for the dems to 64027 for the GOP. When early voting began it was a 19000 vote difference. I thought that when NSS posted today it would be around a 10000 vote difference. Perhaps it is a mistake on Sec. of States part but if it accurate I would have to say that Nevada is leaning red. Once again hillary won Washoe by 3000 votes. If this trend continues it could be easily over a 10000 vote margin for Trump. In addition right now the “cow county” vote has the GOP plus 15894. It will be at least 50000 votes when the final votes are counted. In other words the GOP rural Tsunami is still to come and believe me it will. Clark county is going to need a huge firewall to overcome this and the mail in vote is starting to dry up while the in person vote is catching fire.

      About six months ago I went out on ledge for James and I think that is becoming more and more likely. Today after one week of early voting I am going out on another ledge and I predict Nevada will go Trump.

    119. Tina says:

      Larry Schweikart
      @LarrySchweikart
      Top search term on Google last 24 hours: “How do I change my vote?”

      NM trend line looks nearly vertical.
      1:03 PM · Oct 23, 2020·Twitter for Android

    120. Robbie says:

      One of the unexpected results I think we could see on election night is Perdue hitting 50% and avoiding a runoff. It’s not likely at this point, but I think it could happen. Ossoff is such an awful, wimp dud.

    121. MrVito says:

      The gap in the return rate of vbm in FL continues to narrow, and was 4.3% through yesterday.

      So, the GOP that requested vbm are likely to end up returning them at the same rate as Dems.

      In the August primary, it was even.

    122. Stonewall DW says:

      111 – that’s a BOOM. Landmark is a leftist pollster.

    123. Tina says:

      Do we need to mention Iowa and ethanol?

      I mean what happens to it, if we do away with oil?

    124. mnw says:

      Stonewall

      How do you rate Susquehanna as a pollster? Thx.

    125. Todd McCain says:

      If Trump hits 50% in GA; I strongly believe Perdue as well.

    126. Tina says:

      And what a disgusting answer by China Biden to the farmers.

    127. Tina says:

      He spent 5 lids on this debate?

      And it was a disaster.

    128. Stonewall DW says:

      Susquehanna is the best university pollster. They are pretty solid, though they sometimes should have a larger sample size. Baris says 1000 should now be minimum, and Susquehanna often settles for 500.

      Second, in terms of university pollsters is Emerson College, followed by Suffolk.

    129. Justin says:

      Smack

      I like the way you are laying out the Florida updates. Thank you and keep it up!

    130. mnw says:

      132 Stonewall

      OK, thx.

      Does the Susquehanna AZ poll seem kosher to you– with McSally running better than Trump?

      The conventional wisdom has heretofore been that “Maybe Trump can drag McSally over the finish line.”

    131. MrVito says:

      Zach Parkinson
      @AZachParkinson
      · 3h
      Twitter now putting warnings on tweets that are just unedited clips of Biden saying he would end fracking

    132. Tina says:

      Regarding Georgia, Cotto indicates that the early voting by blacks was falling,

    133. Justin says:

      Could AZ be shy Trump voters? I agree McSally running ahead is odd.

    134. MrVito says:

      133 sakes alive.

    135. PhilS says:

      Phil says:
      October 23, 2020 at 3:35 pm
      I have not, Vito. Suburban districts here are being saturated with health care ads on behalf of Democratic House candidates. Of course Republicans walked right into that with the politically stupid nomination of Barrett. Major unforced error by Trump. He could have gotten all the benefits Barrett could have provided without the Barrett downside on health care with Lagoa.

      Morons around Trump.”

      Are you an idiot? What has healthcare to do with Barrett?

    136. mnw says:

      The Susquehanna AZ poll was only 500 LVs, so… that might account for the oddities.

      I can’t buy it.

    137. Country Dick Montana says:

      Twitter is about to become a regulated utility. OR after Trump wins, he will move over to Parler and request all of his followers do the same.

      BTW, how does Twitter make money? I am not on it, or any other social media (unless one counts Linkedin.)

    138. Annie says:

      122. dblaikie…Do you think that maybe there will be a lot of Nevadans, even Democrats in Las Vegas, voting for Trump, because they want to open up and get back to business?

    139. Stonewall DW says:

      Here are my current Pollster Rankings:

      ABC News/Washington Post: C
      ALG Research (D): D
      AtlasIntel: B+
      Baldwin Wallace University: C
      Big Data Poll (Richard Baris): A-
      Change Research (D): C
      Civiqs (D): D
      CNN/SSRS: D
      Cygnal ®: B
      Data for Progress (D): D
      David Binder Research: D
      Democracy Institute: B+
      Emerson College: C+
      Fox News: D
      Garin-Hart-Yang Res. Grp (D): D
      GBAO (D): C-
      Global Strategy Group (D): D
      GQR Research (D): D
      Gravis Marketing: D
      Harper Polling ®: B
      HarrisX: C-
      Hart Research Associates*: D
      HIT Strategies (D): F
      Hodas & Associates (D): D
      Insider Advantage: B-
      IPSOS: C
      Keiser Family Foundation: C+
      Latino Decisions: C
      Marist College: D
      Mason-Dixon: C+
      Monmouth University: C+
      Morning Consult: D
      On Message ®: B+
      Opinion Insight, LLC (D): F
      Opinium: D
      PPP (D): D
      Quinnipiac University: D
      Rasmussen-Pulse Opinion: C
      Redfield & Wilton Strategies: D
      RMG Research: C
      Siena College/NY Times: D
      Spry Strategies ®: C+
      Strategies 360: D
      Suffolk University: C
      SurveyUSA: C
      Susquehanna: B
      Target Smart: C
      TIPP: D
      Trafalgar Group: B+
      Tyson Group: D
      University of Mass. – Lowell: B-
      YouGov: C+
      Zogby: C+

    140. Annie says:

      133. That’s great news!!

    141. mnw says:

      142 CDM

      Did you see the MT poll from NYT/Siena? Are you still in MT, btw?

      It has Trump, Daines & Rosendale each winning by about 3 points. Does that sound right to you?

    142. mnw says:

      Stonewall

      Where’s Landmark?

    143. Scooterboy says:

      Have to be pleased with some of the polling coming out today, and with the early voting numbers.

      However, am I the only one who expects the Dems to have one more trick up their sleeves, in order to try and take down Trump before the election?

      Not trying to be a doomer, but with nothing having stuck so far, I just get the feeling that they almost have to try and make one last ditch effort.

      Anyone else feel that way?

    144. PhilS says:

      148: No I don’t feel that way.

    145. Robbie says:

      Both AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson have resumed their Phase 3 trials. This is great news and it makes it that much more likely several vaccines are approved and distributed before inauguration day.

      I think inauguration day is an important date for vaccine approval. Why? If Biden wins, I have every expectation he is going to slow down the approval process and prevent approval and distribution of vaccines that are ready to be approved and distributed.

      It should not have taken a vaccine to bring what is for most people a cold/flu to end this mess, but that’s where we are.

      Moncef Slaoui, who runs Warp Speed, told ABC this week he thinks he can get every person vaccinated by June. Of course, convincing people to take the vaccine will be difficult, but I’m hopeful most will.

    146. Country Dick Montana says:

      146 – I live in SW PA.

    147. PhilS says:

      Just as a rule of thumb, add Trump +3-5% to the 2016 margins of every state from 2016. Not the polls, the actual results.

      That’s what the 2020 results will be.

    148. Todd McCain says:

      FL GOP IPEV lead is now 188,000.

    149. PhilS says:

      “Country Dick Montana says:
      October 23, 2020 at 4:36 pm
      146 – I live in SW PA.”

      Cool. My son’s coach used to be the closer for the Washington WildThings, so we have spent many a Friday night at the stadium. My son used to hang out in the bullpen during the games.

    150. jason says:

      “David Harsanyi

      The funniest thing is going to be watching Biden try deny that he wants to kill the oil industry while dozens of lefty columnists write their “Biden is Right, We Should Kill the Oil Industry” pieces”

    151. Stonewall DW says:

      Baris went into great detail showing how the McSally vote is different from the Trump vote in AZ.

      Trump is getting a slice of indies who McSally is losing, and McSally is losing actual Republicans too. So it is counterintuitive to think she is running ahead of Trump. Baris does respect the work of Susquehanna though. I think had they sampled more, they might have seen what Baris did.

    152. Boog says:

      With everyday that passes, with the early vote looking as strong as it is for Trump in Florida and Nevada, it seems to confirm the voter registration patterns, and all of the other non-MSM poll metrics which appear to confirm a strong Trump victory. The real vote numbers don’t lie. (And no one really believes that any significant number of republicans are cross over voters. If anything, there are likely more dem crossovers).

      I still think the PV comes in around 48-48 or maybe 49-47 Trump, but it is looking more and more like a red electoral landslide— perhaps 320 EVs give or take.

      Unless the early vote pattern changes, and if the Biden laptop story is able gain more traction, you could potentially see the bottom start to fall out for Biden. MSM/big tech will likely continue with the censorship, narrative creation and negative story suffocation — so Biden will make it to election day with at least the “appearance” of legitimacy and possibility. But people in the know are probably starting to realize that he is, politically, dead man walking.

    153. MrVito says:

      148 Maybe they will turn away voters at the polls if they have a fever and will incorrectly calibrate the thermometers.

    154. Scooterboy says:

      149. I hope you’re right

    155. Scooterboy says:

      149. I hope you’re right

    156. jason says:

      I think inauguration day is an important date for vaccine approval. Why? If Biden wins”

      If Biden wins, COVID will be the least of our problems

    157. PhilS says:

      It seems another 20-30,000 at the first Florida rally this evening.

      Apart from humpin’ biden and pedo G, does Joe get any audience at his daily basement rallies?

    158. MrVito says:

      What battleground states are still registering voters?

    159. MrVito says:

      Because that’s where Trump should be doing the most rallies…

    160. dblaikie says:

      I believe that hatred towards the Gov. is behind this. In addition huge lay-offs in Clark are hurting the “Reid Machine.”

    161. MrVito says:

      What does theTrump event list look like now, DW?

    162. Stonewall DW says:

      Another anecdote from door to door TRUMP canvassing.

      I have a number of contacts, and hear of their stories. This one was funny.

      A team of two canvassers working a somewhat hostile neighborhood of homes that are half a million and up. Not a gated community, but the sort of place that might not like canvassers. So wrapping up the passing out of fliers, the two Trump volunteers notice out of the corner of the eye a golf-cart easing up beside them. Uh oh…probably security going to be mad at what they were doing.

      Turning around it was a golf-cart with an extremely old couple who were just riding around the neighborhood with their Trump flags proudly on display, hanging from the roof of their cart.

    163. Annie says:

      dblaikie – I also wonder if, aside from any fraud, if the idea of en masse mail-in ballots is backfiring on the Democrats a bit. Republicans who don’t always vote can just fill out a ballot and drop it in the mail. The stigma of voting for Trump isn’t there for some Democrats, too, with mail-ins. I just remember how mail-in voting actually backfired on the Democrats in CA-25’s special election that went to Garcia.

    164. Pil says:

      140

      What does healthcare have to do with Barrett?

      Are you that ignorant?

    165. PhilS says:

      167: Through Tuesday – FL, OH, NC, PA, NH, WI, MI, and NE.

    166. PhilS says:

      “140

      What does healthcare have to do with Barrett?

      Are you that ignorant?”

      Which ads mention Barrett? Citation please.

    167. Stonewall DW says:

      TRUMP:

      Today: The Villages, FL
      Today: Pensacola, FL
      SAT: Lumberton, NC
      SAT: Circleville, OH
      SAT: Waukesha, WI
      SUN: Manchester, NH
      MON: Lititz, PA
      MON: Martinsburg, PA
      TUE: Lansing, MI
      TUE: West Salem, WI
      TUE: Omaha, NE

      PENCE:

      TODAY: Swanton, OH
      TODAY: West Mifflin, PA
      SAT: Lakeland, FL
      SAT: Tallahassee, FL
      SUN: Kinston, NC
      MON: Hibbing, MN

    168. PhilS says:

      I meant, which ads mention Barrett and healthcare together? Citation please.

    169. Stonewall DW says:

      Omaha, NE rally is critical. Holding that one EV means that with FL+NC+AZ, all Trump would need is ANY of PA, MN, WI, or MI. Or long shot of NV+NH.

      Without that one in Omaha, then Trump needs more than just MN or WI alone.

    170. lisab says:

      However, am I the only one who expects the Dems to have one more trick up their sleeves, in order to try and take down Trump before the election?
      ———————————

      BREAKING: Trump murders coyote puppies

    171. lisab says:

      Without that one in Omaha, then Trump needs more than just MN or WI alone.
      ———————

      no, because trump can win with 269 evs

      he doesn’t need 270

      the gop leads in the house delegations

    172. Stonewall DW says:

      here is how the media works:

      Biden: I never said that
      Trump: You said it on tape!

      Media Fact checker:

      Trump lied. It was not a audio tape recording, it was a digital recording.

    173. mnw says:

      Stonewall

      Why isn’t Landmark on your list?

    174. jason says:

      Anyone else feel that way?”

      There are rumors that the NYT and WAPO will have at least one more “scandal” story before the election.

      But in the end, these things will not decide the election.

      The election is about the things DW posts in his list.

      The nanny state. Green new deal. Defunding the police. Ending 2nd amendment rights. Cancel culture. Nationalized health care. Censorship of conservative views….etc.. etc.

      You will either be for or against these things. Unfortunately these things have become attractive to a huge number of Americans, thanks to decades of liberal domination of the educational institutions and the media.

      We will find out soon if they are already a majority or have to wait a few more years.

    175. Stonewall DW says:

      180 – I have a much longer list and Landmark is on it. I just cut off the paste above at those that did more than two states. Many only poll one state. A few only poll two states. Landmark is GA only.

    176. lisab says:

      David Hogg
      @davidhogg111
      Imagine calling the immigrant parents that bring their children to the United States for a better life “Coyotes”

      The level of xenophobia is sickening.
      ————————————-

      is david hogg actually corey?

    177. dblaikie says:

      Annie, I believe this is backfiring on them. As far as fraud goes, I am glad that the US Attorney for Nevada has assigned folks to watch. Clark County is always a pool of corruption.

    178. JC says:

      Stonewall DW says:

      Omaha, NE rally is critical. Holding that one EV means that with FL+NC+AZ, all Trump would need is ANY of PA, MN, WI, or MI. Or long shot of NV+NH.
      ———

      Trump needs to win the electoral college convincingly. If it’s a crazy 269 tie or just barely above 270, you can bet that the dems will attempt some faithless elector shenanigans to overturn the election.

      If we learned one thing about the swamp creatures in the last 4 years it’s that nothing is beyond them.

    179. PresidentPaul! says:

      It’s crazy how the left finds bogus mirror scandals.

      Hunter has child porn with his niece? No biggie we have borat get pictures of Guiliani.

      Hunter’s laptop have evidence of taking bribes\pay for play from China along with bobulinski? No biggie we know about one random bank account Trump supposedly has in China for some reason, which is a major “scandal”

    180. lisab says:

      new trump scandal:

      trump pictures have been found on hunter’s laptop

    181. PhilS says:

      187: that would be quite a dilemma for the msm. “What laptop?”

    182. Tina says:

      Daniel Gruhn
      @dg_sailingfan
      · 9m
      Replying to @CottoGottfried
      WBS-TV/Landmark GA Poll (Trump up 49-45) is now almost excatly matching the TargetSmart modelling of returned Ballots in the State see here:

    183. Tgca says:

      122 dblaikie

      Sorry! No disrespect, but You’re misinterpreting the data. It won’t be close for the GOP. Once the ballots are received after Xmas, the Dems will easily win NV.

    184. lisab says:

      the florida vote is getting out of hand

      dems have lost it if republicans vote for republicans

    185. jason says:

      2022 should be a very, very good year for Republicans if Biden wins.”

      What a crock of crap. It could be a very good year if Trump wins, that is true.

      This is system of government choice election. If America wants socialism, which is what the Dems are clearly offering, it is not going to change back in 2022. Plus, the Dems will have enough power to rig the election laws to ensure it won’t happen.

      Rs have ONE unifying figure: Donald Trump. Like it or not, no other R can unite 90% of the party like he does. Rs have no other person even close to him of a national stature.

      If he loses, America will change. And the change will be long term.

      If the GOP wants to win in 2022 or 2024, they better hope Trump wins.

    186. Stonewall DW says:

      192 – spot on!

    187. jason says:

      trump pictures have been found on hunter’s laptop”

      That is bad.

      Not all the HD is Russian misinformation. Some of is real.

    188. PhilS says:

      “2022 should be a very, very good year for Republicans if Biden wins.”

      What a crock of crap”

      Typical Robbie, always crap.

    189. hugh says:

      FL EV pickup so far today about 37,000. We are killing it. In another week it will be obvious that NC and FL will be in the trump column. Only AZ left, then one upper midwest state. And Joe is done

    190. jason says:

      is david hogg actually corey?”

      Very few Jews are called Hogg.

    191. Wes says:

      Jason doesn’t understand how politics works clearly. While reelecting Trump may be the immediate desirable goal, it all but ensures Dems will run away with 2022.

      Saying anything else is nothing but mindless pablum.

    192. MrVito says:

      There are only two counties left where GOP is not over performing 2016 in the in-person early vote… Orange and Duval.

      That is when you consider the partisan gap from 2020 compared to 2016.

      It is now safe to say that vbm cannibalized a large share of D votes that would have voted early in person. So how many new voters over 2016 will they have gotten is the question?

      Well as of yesterday… It was 465000, or 24% of their vote.
      For the GOP, it was 285700 or 20% of their vote.

      Not much, especially considering youth vote…. but that is by registration…

      By the modeled numbers, it is
      Dems 530528 or 25% of their vote
      GOP 418837 or 23% of their vote

    193. Stonewall DW says:

      There is no other way Wes. Should Trump lose, then 2022 will be so rigged that the GOP won’t be able to win anything.

    194. lisab says:

      tgca,

      my hometown voted for hillary 88.1% to 8.8% in 2016

      do you think biden will do better this time around?

    195. Wes says:

      Then I guess Trump is appointing all these judges for nothing, DW.

      If 2022 is going to be so rigged Republicans can’t win anything despite all the judges Trump has appointed, what exactly are we fighting for again?

      I’m not getting the logic here because basically you just told me the Trump Administration has been a four-year waste.

    196. NYCmike says:

      Wes says:
      October 23, 2020 at 5:30 pm

      Jason doesn’t understand how politics works clearly. While reelecting Trump may be the immediate desirable goal, it all but ensures Dems will run away with 2022.

      Saying anything else is nothing but mindless pablum.

      -Wes also declared in Nov 2018 that Trump had no shot of winning in 2020.

    197. jason says:

      What a crock of crap”

      Typical Robbie, always crap.”

      Yeah, remember that all those suburbanites, having opted for DW’s list of goodies in 2020, are going to decide we made a mistake, we don’t want to defund the police, we don’t want open borders, we don’t want government healthcare, let’s vote GOP.

      Zzzzzzzzzz….

    198. LewisS says:

      MrVito,

      Can you restate #199. I’m sorry to say I’m not following….

      Appreciate it.

    199. Wes says:

      In 2008–and again 2012–Mikey declared Obama would lose.

      Do you really want to go down this rabbit hole, Mikey?

      At least we have 200+ years of a track record in midterms to use for analysis.

      Your prediction that John McCain would beat Barack Obama in 2008 was based on what exactly?

    200. Phil says:

      Florida will be called easily before 11. No late arriving ballots. Republicans control the election machinery. democrats can’t steal Florida and Democrats know it.

      No late arriving ballots in Michigan or Wisconsin either. Harder to manufacture votes although they will try in Wayne and Milwaukee Counties.

      North Carolina they absolutely could steal. Must count ballots that arrive up to 9 days after Election Day regardless of post mark. LOL Potential is there. In fact, it is an open invitation to steal it. I just don’t think it will be close enough to steal without it being obvious.

      That brings us to Pennsylvania. I have no doubt Trump will be leading on election night. The problem is that, thanks to Judge Roberts, ballots can be accepted three days after Election Day. On election night Democrats will know exactly how many votes they need. If that doesn’t scare the hell out of you nothing will. Let’s just say we need to hope it doesn’t come down to Pennsylvania.

    201. jason says:

      f 2022 is going to be so rigged Republicans can’t win anything despite all the judges Trump has appointed, what exactly are we fighting for again?”

      Trump has has an impact on the bench, but he hasn’t reversed it. 16 years of Clinton/ Obama still have the most weight on the courts.

    202. Stonewall DW says:

      “what exactly are we fighting for again?”

      Four more years of Western Civilization. The country ends in 2024.

    203. Annie says:

      202. Wes…If Dems get a trifecta, expect court-packing. Also, Biden will have a pen and a phone…He’ll get rid of many Trump accomplishments within a few weeks. I see nothing positive about a Biden-Harris Administration.

    204. jason says:

      Wes, I think the election is about what DW posts daily.

      Democratic Party Platform:
      1) Anti-Police
      2) Pro-Looting
      3) Sieze retirement savings
      4) Sieze guns
      5) Pro-illegal immigration
      6) Rural America must bail out the failed Democrat cities
      7) If you are not a person of color, you are a racist whether you want to be or not.
      8) Pro-mutilation of young children
      9) Open prison doors and let them all go free
      10) End the free speech of anyone who dissents
      11) Anti-National Anthem
      12) Pro-Mail out ballots to all people: citizens, non-citizens, living, and dead.
      13) Pro-anarchy
      14) Pro-cancel culture
      15) Pro-rationing of gov’t controlled healthcare
      16) Pro-Force taxpayers to pay off student loan debt instead of the students who took the loans.
      17) Pro-“Green” new deal to devastate the economy with crippling regulations and destroy the energy industry.
      18) Pro-“Republicans are enemies of the state” (so aim your weapons at them carefully)
      19) Endless mob violence unless you vote Democrats into office
      20) Pro-never ending shut downs to keep everyone under government control
      21) Pro-send millions of jobs back to China
      22) Pro-never ending of jobless benefits
      23) Pro-living wage
      24) DC to become 51st state
      25) Anti-Peace in the middle east
      26) Pro-sex with minors
      27) Anti-vaccine until after the election.
      28) Pro-replacing lower court system with lynch mobs.
      29) Pro-Packing the SCOTUS with commies
      30) Promised to BAN fracking
      31) Promise to END THE OIL INDUSTRY”

      If a majority of Americans want this platform, they are not going to reject it in 2022 or 2024.

      And as DW says, it will be rigged to ensure it is not rejected.

      If you agree with Robbie that there will be a “GOP” comeback, be my guest. I think that is a the biggest crock of crap.

    205. JC says:

      Wes says:

      Jason doesn’t understand how politics works clearly. While reelecting Trump may be the immediate desirable goal, it all but ensures Dems will run away with 2022.

      Saying anything else is nothing but mindless pablum.
      ———-

      Lol. Typical GOPe thinking.

      “Hey guys, we can win by losing!”

    206. Wes says:

      Quite honestly if the logic is that Republicans can’t win in 2022 with Biden in office–which effectively means the GOP is doomed either way–then that means 2024 is going to be a phenomenal year for the Democrats whether Trump wins or loses.

      If Republicans can’t win anything unless Trump is on the ballot, then pretty clearly there’s no point in even showing up to the polls in 2020 because our country is just four years away from being Haiti in 1957.

      Look, I’ve already committed to voting for Trump, but if the logic is that Republicans can’t win without Trump, then you’re basically conceding the next election–and every election thereafter–already.

      That brings me back to my question.

      What in that instance is the point of participating in this election since you’ve already told me it’s over?

    207. Annie says:

      207. I seem to remember that during the 2016 recounts in WI, MI, and PA that one reason they stopped recounting was that a whole lot of fraudulent ballots for Hillary were being discovered.

    208. lisab says:

      when does the $15/hr minimum wage start

      most employees only make $6/hr apparently

    209. Wes says:

      I see we have another poster who knows exactly nothing about history or politics opining in 212.

    210. MrVito says:

      205 Democrats were hoping the ease of voting by mail would mean a lot of unenthusiastic D voters and voters who hadn’t voted in 2016 would turn out more vote by asking for ballots to fill out from home.

      A lot more Ds did request ballots than usual. If those were all voters they normally couldn’t get to the polls it would mean trouble for the GOP. On the contrary, the GOP was saying vote by mail was untrustworthy… so they would need to get more of their voters to the actual polls.

      ………………

      The data seems to indicate that the GOP has gotten as many new voters out as the Dems. The Dems voted by mail which started a month ago, and so they were running up the score… but that just meant they had already voted, making the in person voting that much more GOP.

    211. Annie says:

      207. Any chance that the Supreme Court can have the question of counting or not post-election ballots re-heard after ACB is seated?

    212. LewisS says:

      #217 – Thanks, MrVito. Ahora entiendo.

    213. Abraham Lincoln says:

      I would just like to say that I am not racist, I support Black Lives Matter!

    214. lisab says:

      Bobulinski did not kill himself

    215. Wes says:

      Well, at least DW is honest.

      He believes 2020 is the first year of the Fimbulwinter leading to Ragnarok in 2024.

      To be quite honest, that kind of fatalism isn’t exactly inspiring. Luckily I’m not a low-information voter and am actually turning out this year.

      If I weren’t as keen on politics as I am, DW, quite honestly I’d just sit at home and drink on Election Day rather than vote after reading your assessment.

    216. Wes says:

      Annie, whether Biden wins or not, I’m not expecting Dems to have a tri fecta since Senate Republicans have come off their lows over the summer and now look poised to hang on.

      I’m just being when I say the logic that 2024 is the end regardless of 2020 is about the least inspiring call to arms I’ve ever seen on this blog.

    217. PhilS says:

      “207. Any chance that the Supreme Court can have the question of counting or not post-election ballots re-heard after ACB is seated?”

      The earlier decision was not a decision on the case. It was a decision not to provide an injunction.

      The PA case will be at the SC even before Barrett’s oath is finished reverberating.

      And beyond that, there will multiple challenges from many states. The final mail-in decision will be just before the Electoral College meets mid-December.

    218. MrVito says:

      By the way, I believe tomorrow is the last day you may request a ballot by mail in FL.

    219. Brion says:

      2024 Pence/Noem or Rubio/Noem! You heard it here first!

    220. PhilS says:

      “Abraham Lincoln says:
      October 23, 2020 at 5:51 pm
      I would just like to say that I am not racist, I support Black Lives Matter!”

      Thanks Abe!!

      I would just like to say that I am not racist, I do not support BLM.

    221. Phil says:

      Noem needs to be at the top of the ticket.

    222. MrVito says:

      Also, no ballots may be sent to voters after Monday.

    223. Annie says:

      226. Pence-Noem is better than Rubio-Noem.

    224. MrVito says:

      Desantis-Noem

    225. Wes says:

      Why, Phil?

      DW already told us 2020 is the country’s last hurrah.

      We’re Haiti under Papa Doc Duvalier after this election, so why would Norm worry about taking a guaranteed loss when she can retire after her second term as Governor at 8-0?

    226. Annie says:

      I wonder if Saudi Arabia or Kuwait will be next to join the Abraham Accord… Just before our election day?

    227. Annie says:

      231. I like that combo, too…

    228. JC says:

      Wes,

      If Biden wins, and the dems get the senate, they will change the rules to allow passing legislation through a simple majority vote via reconciliation. Also, Biden will pack the Supreme Court by simply adding new judges of Yes-Men. There goes out seperation of powers.

      The dems will be able to do anything. Literally anything. And who will hold them accountable? The media? Big tech? They’re on the same team!

      Of course, our prescient founders put in a last resort clause in the constitution to guard against tyranny. There’s only one enevitable conclusion to this path, and it will be bloody. I pray it doesn’t happen.

      “The tree of liberty must be watered from time to time by the blood of patriots and tyrants.” – Thomas Jefferson

      I truly fear our republic is heading down the road.

    229. Wes says:

      Damn autocorrect.

      Noem, not Norm.

    230. Smack says:

      All Early Voting – Florida

      Oct 23rd / 8:16am

      DEM: 2,124,196 44.18%

      GOP: 1,698,311 35.31%

      Oct 23rd / 5:00pm

      DEM: 2,251,630 43.45%

      GOP: 1,863,395 35.96%

      My goodness.

    231. Phil says:

      Like I said, Florida law is clear. It’s impossible for Democrats to steal Florida. NC and Pa are wide open as of right now.

    232. Wes says:

      I already addressed that, JC.

      You should pay attention better next time.

    233. Stonewall DW says:

      and supporting the case jason is just a quick look at what they are doing RIGHT now in plain sight. They literally littered the streets with ballots to harvest in NV. They stole four or five CA congressional races in 2018. They are corrupt. They are emboldened. And with full power, they will guarantee that nothing will ever stop them again.

    234. Stonewall DW says:

      Wes, if Trump can spend the next 4 years providing an education to young people to teach them the opposite of what they learned from kindergarten through college then perhaps there is hope. That is why I soldier on.

    235. BRENT says:

      Larry Schweikart
      @LarrySchweikart
      ·
      7m
      FL In Person Early Voting
      Rs+197,544

      Should break 200,000 tonight.

      I think Rs have a good chance of a VBM /IPEV combined lead on Election Day

    236. Tina says:

      Wtf?

      SV News ?
      @SVNewsAlerts
      JUST IN: Joe Biden says as President he would mandate masks on highways.

    237. MrVito says:

      “ I think Rs have a good chance of a VBM /IPEV combined lead on Election Day”

      I doubt it.

    238. Gordon Allen says:

      Noem/ Desantis in 2024. Absolutely have to have Florida. Need a dynamic female candidate as well.

    239. LewisS says:

      Noem/Desantis. What a terrific ticket that would be!

    240. Country Dick Montana says:

      Noem/Scott

    241. lisab says:

      jeb/romney or romney/jeb

    242. Justin says:

      Level of concern about the early voting numbers in Iowa and Arizona? About half the vote is in so far.

    243. Annie says:

      Frank “the toupee” Luntz was just on Fox News saying, “He gained a few points, but I just don’t know if what Trump did [in the debate] will be enough.” This, after his “focus group undecided” dopes all said they were choosing to vote for Trump!

    244. Ruru says:

      Stop this Nevada is only good if T wins NH or such.

      Things change folks: maybe T loses gA but wins MN and NV. 16 for 16.

      Maybe Hispanics really do move more to T and he wins NV and NM but loses AZ. 11 for 11.

      Don’t be so wed to past is prologue.

    245. GF says:

      228- Noem can be on top of my ticket any day. ZING!!!

      Good afternoon, HHR!

    246. Annie says:

      *“focus group of undecideds”

    247. PhilS says:

      Luntz is a loser who got kicked to the curb by Trump. He was begging for work and Trump told him to f&*k off.

    248. Annie says:

      Headline article in the “Sacramento Bee” today was about the many California Latinos voting for Trump this election…estimated to be as much as over a third of Latinos.

    249. JeffP says:

      Noem seems like a fighter. That is a new requirement after Trump. There is a new coalition that has formed…GW Bush ruined the Reagan coalition… Gains with working class, Hispanic and Blacks must be maintained and increase.

      I do think changes will come in the media and in particular to social media platforms, Amazon, Google if Trump is elected.

      Buckle up 10 days to go. I am feeling very good about a Trump victory.

    250. JeffP says:

      Com..on man…Trump has Ohio, Florida, NC, AZ and Iowa wrapped up…looking good in MI, WI, and PA.

    251. JeffP says:

      Speaking of Frank…remember him? I wonder why he is not around.

    252. lisab says:

      md used to insult frank continuously

    253. JeffP says:

      Faux news website running cover for Biden. Sickening.

    254. Scooterboy says:

      Cotto- “ In Florida, with combined in-person early voting and VBM, the Dems are now at 388,038. They continue to fall at a time when they should be making gains with EV, however marginal. This is a pathetic performance among pathetic performances.”

    255. Wes says:

      MD also drove Nickelodeon off by derisively calling him “Nicky Numbers.”

    256. SoHope says:

      Lol…Hitler for Halloween. Is that worse than blackface?

    257. Will says:

      Wes.

      Republicans passed Dems in early voting in my Wilmington precinct yesterday!!!

      Positive trend continues

    258. Robbie says:

      I’m surprised suggesting 2022 will be a good year for Republicans if Biden wins would be so controversial since we have decades upon decades of data that shows just that.

      If a Biden win in 2020 means the Republican Party can no longer win, then what’s the point? Do we close up shop? Of course not.

      If the party was ever going to be doomed, it was after 2008. While I think GWB was a good man, he left the party in shambles. Our leadership had been decapitated, we eventually had just 40 Senators, and Democrats commanded governorships across the country. Yet, we had 2010.

    259. PhilS says:

      Since Robbie has opined, you know the opposite will be true.

    260. Annie says:

      261. Tony Bobulinski is not the only Hunter associate to share emails and information about the Biden family’s pay for play scams.

    261. Phil says:

      Hey, Robbie. Europe another dumpster fire of cases again today.

      Masks, baby!

    262. Brion says:

      Robbie, any luck on the job front?

    263. mnw says:

      Stonewall

      OK, thx.

      How do you evaluate Landmark’s previous polling in GA, then?

    264. Annie says:

      263. Tina – The picture of Kelly in Hitler garb made me laugh! Remember the hullabaloo over Prince Harry dressing up as a Nazi for Halloween some years ago?

    265. Annie says:

      Mark Kelly could dress-up like Uncle Fester from the Addams Family this year.

    266. Wes says:

      I just saw that picture of Mark Kelly dressed as Hitler.

      McSally needs to run an ad featuring that picture in any Jewish areas of Arizona.

    267. Brion says:

      No trolls? Wind out of their sails, or mom didn’t wake them in HER basement

    268. Bitterlaw says:

      Defeatist BS. The future of this country has been written off every day since July 2, 1776. For those who were here in 2004, you may remember that on election night that year, somebody posted that the Democrats were finished as a national party. Worst prediction ever at HHR. But, Bitter, this is different….

      F off. Every time was different and the country always came back stronger. If Trump loses, those who are not p*ssies will fight within the system. Stop sniping from the sidelines on a blog and run for office. Everybody here seems to have all the answers. Time to share it with the voters.

    269. mnw says:

      McSally v. Kelly in AZ:

      There was a second AZ Sen poll posted today (in addition to Susquehanna’s) which showed McS up +2 over Kelly.

      Someone posted that he “never heard of the outfit” (Basswood) which released the second AZ poll. Neither had I, so I poked around.

      The second poll was commissioned by a right-leaning 503 organization, albeit a very respectable one, headed by a former GOP chair of the Council of Economic Advisors. The Basswood poll was 800 LVs. So pretty small polling sample, just like Susquehanna’s poll of 500 LVs was.

      RCP had Kelly ahead by 5.6 points recently. My impression is that both Lewis in MN & James in MI likely have a better shot than poor Sen. McSally does. Just an impression.

    270. Tgca says:

      Ok. So guess what I did today?

      I quit my job!

      Yay! I’m a free man!

      Maybe a poor one too soon.

      No job. No income. Oh well.

    271. Tgca says:

      May need to stay at Bitters until I get on my feet. I’m no moocher though…I can pay my way. Maybe tend to his flowers or organize his vast sweater collection.

    272. Bitterlaw says:

      Did your boss refuse to talk about ABORTION!?

    273. Bitterlaw says:

      I go to work every day hoping it is my last day. My boss is a tyrant. Today, we disagreed on strategy for a deposition. He said I failed lawyer 101. I said that I have been a lawyer for 26 years and we just disagree. I really wanted to quit but that damn mortgage is due every month.

    274. PhilS says:

      “Vulnerable Democrats Break With Biden Over ‘Transition’ From Oil Industry.”

      Yup, they are 10 points ahead.

    275. Robbie says:

      Phil says:
      October 23, 2020 at 7:26 pm
      Hey, Robbie. Europe another dumpster fire of cases again today.

      Masks, baby!

      – Dr. Doom Scott Gottlieb just posted a thread on Twitter about the greatness of masks.

      Masks have become a cult worship item.

      I wish large groups with sway would organize national protests in DC about mask use.

    276. Robbie says:

      Brion says:
      October 23, 2020 at 7:30 pm
      Robbie, any luck on the job front?

      – I’ve done a bit of flight instruction over the last two weeks. I did a BFR for friend in a C172 and an IPC for another guy. I’m about to start working with someone who wants an instrument rating. Fortunately, I always kept flying light aircraft so I didn’t have to spend too much time reacquainting myself with a fly that bounces around like a feather in the wind!

    277. Robbie says:

      Phil says:
      October 23, 2020 at 7:26 pm
      Hey, Robbie. Europe another dumpster fire of cases again today.

      Masks, baby!

      – MaSkS aRe BeTtEr ThAn A vAcCiNe!

    278. Robbie says:

      Brion says:
      October 23, 2020 at 7:30 pm
      Robbie, any luck on the job front?

      – Also, I have to say the coeds at the regional airports are much more numerous than when I learned to fly 20 years ago.

    279. Bitterlaw says:

      Robbie – Good luck. Looks like you and I may be the only ones who won’t give up on America if Trump loses.

    280. Cash Cow TM says:

      “The Dems voted by mail which started a month ago, and so they were running up the score…”

      And what happens when 400,000 Dems who voted earlier by mail also show up to vote in person on election day in FL?

      Dems scream that Dem voters are being turned away at polls….VOTERS SHENANIGANS BY EVIL Rs!

      Can they still vote provisional, and cause mayhem for election officials and delay announcement of official outcome in FL?

    281. Wes says:

      So, to recap what I read today, if Trump wins, 2022 is 1958 Redux. If Biden wins, 2022 is 1934 Redux. That means 2020 is either 1932 or 1936 with no 1946, 1952, 1980, or 1994 remotely possible on the horizon.

      We might as well get it over now and declare Biden–or whatever Dem wins in 2024–to be Papa Doc Duvalier.

      It’s over regardless of who wins on 11-3.

      That’s what I read on HHR anyway.

      Such an inspiring exhortation to vote. I’ve never read anything so motivating.

      It is time to celebrate, for tomorrow we all will die!

    282. Gordon Allen says:

      I saw a bit of Trump’s ( ongoing) rally in Pensacola. Where he gets the energy for his schedule heaven only knows. I’m his age and soon will be getting ready to for bed; Biden’s probably asleep by now.
      If hard work is the recipe for success he’s a lock.

    283. Wes says:

      Mnw, if we go by the RCP average you cited, Lewis is down 5.8 while McSally is down 5.6. It would seem to me as an incumbent Senator in a state Trump is more likely to carry than MN, McSally is a better prospect for a victory.

      As far as John James, he’s the second best chance Republicans have of picking up a Senate seat after Tommy Tuberville. I’d agree he may be a better prospect than McSally given how poorly Gary Peters has been faring despite being an inoffensive incumbent in a state where Dems have dominated the Senate elections ever since 1954.

    284. NYCmike says:

      “So, to recap what I read today, if Trump wins, 2022 is 1958 Redux. If Biden wins, 2022 is 1934 Redux. That means 2020 is either 1932 or 1936 with no 1946, 1952, 1980, or 1994 remotely possible on the horizon.”

      -So to recap, Wes likes to live in the past.

    285. NYCmike says:

      “I really wanted to quit but that damn mortgage is due every month.”

      -Bitterlaw,

      If the strategy which is chosen is his, and you lose, will he admit his mistake? Are you allowed to gloat if the company loses because of the “tyrant’s” preferred method?

    286. Wes says:

      As opposed to a guy who made a ridiculously wrong prediction in 2008 and criticized me for a prediction we don’t know to be right or wrong yet, Mikey?

      How’d President McCain work out for you?

    287. Robbie says:

      Bitterlaw says:
      October 23, 2020 at 8:44 pm
      Robbie – Good luck. Looks like you and I may be the only ones who won’t give up on America if Trump loses.

      – I understand the concern many have if Trump loses. Trust me. I have concerns as well. But it’s always darkest before dawn and then the sun starts to rise. We have a good bench of candidates who can step forward if Trump loses.

    288. Robbie says:

      Phil

      We need to congratulate China. They haven’t recorded a corona death in six months I believe.

    289. Phil says:

      If Democrats get control of the WH and both houses of Congress you can expect the following

      Filibuster gone.

      Supreme Court packed

      2 to 4 new permanent Democratic senators depending whether they decide to add Puerto Rico to Washington DC

      Millions of New Democratic voters once illegals are granted citizenship

      Now, if you want tp poo poo that either:

      1) you don’t believe they’ll do those things in which case you are in denial – it’s in their platform plus they have told you they are going to do all of this

      Or

      2) you believe those things can be undone later. Good luck with that one.

    290. PhilS says:

      “I understand the concern many have if Trump loses. Trust me. I have concerns as well. But it’s always darkest before dawn and then the sun starts to rise. We have a good bench of candidates who can step forward if Trump loses.

      No you don’t.

    291. PhilS says:

      90% of Republican voters couldn’t name a GOP leader.

    292. PhilS says:

      You can vote yourself into socialism, you will have to shoot your way out.

      Look at Venezuela.

    293. Phil says:

      Robbie, yep. Not a COVID death in China in eight months.

      Notice how our media hasn’t once even questioned their numbers. What a joke.

    294. Phil says:

      301

      Bingo.

    295. PhilS says:

      Remember, “In 1950, Venezuela was the world’s 4th wealthiest nation per capita.”

      Now, GDP growth: : ?19.6% (2018) ?35.0% (2019e);

    296. PhilS says:

      Sorry, those ?’s in 304 are negative signs.

    297. Greymarch says:

      Tricky for McSally to use that photo. Since its from high-school, Kelly is still a kid. Will any of the local AZ news stations show it? Are all of the AZ news-stations in the bag for Kelly?

      McSally really does need to find a way to use it though. If done correctly, Kelly is ruined.

    298. Wes says:

      Or Option 3, Phil:

      You believe a United government under Biden is not a fait accompli.

      Republicans have been gaining in the Senate races after their summer doldrums, so the prospect of wall-to-wall control of Washington by the Democrats next year is not assured regardless of whether or not Trump loses.

      Having studied the ebb and flow of politics for nearly 30 years now, I refuse to jump on one man’s cult of personality bandwagon and declare the entirety of Western civilization ends because of a single election.

      If Trump wins on 11-3, I acknowledge I was wrong, make arrangements to send Dblaikie his $150 bottle of scotch, and continue with my life knowing I voted for the winner.

      If Trump loses, I acknowledge I was right, wait for Dblaikie to send me $150 worth of cabernet, and go on with my life knowing there are future elections to undo the results of this election.

      Either way, I refuse to take the fatalistic stance that the United States is doomed because of one single election.

    299. SoHope says:

      Those Mark Kelly pictures are inführeriating.

    300. SoHope says:

      I’m sure the AZ pundits did Nazi that coming.

    301. SoHope says:

      That costume is a little out of mein kampfert zone.

    302. Robbie says:

      Supreme Pandemic Overlord Fauci appeared on CNN tonight and said if we don’t start wearing masks he will call for a national mandate.

      The little guy is an authoritarian in the making.

    303. Robbie says:

      Win or lose, I hope Trump throw Fauci to the curb the day after the election. If Biden wants to rehire the old fool, let him, but Fauci needs to removed from any position of authority.

    304. Phil says:

      Wes, I said if Democrats capture both the WH and the Senate.

      Those four items I mentioned are game changers for both the legislative branch and our electoral system. They aren’t some isolated pieces of legislature. They are permanent institutional changes.

      On some level survey you must know this.

    305. Phil says:

      Fauci is a totalitarian.

      Give him the medal of freedom.

      Nope, can his ass the day after the election.

    306. MrVit9 says:

      308-310

      YYYYYYYYYES!

    307. Robbie says:

      For quite some time, I argued Trump needed to tread lightly with Fauci because Trump was going to need Fauci’s imprimatur on any vaccine that’s approved.

      I think that was the case through much of the Summer, but by August or so it became clear Fauci saw himself as a surrogate for Biden. Every media appearance was about contradicting and hurting Trump.

      Trump can’t officially fire Fauci due to rules protecting government employees, but he should throw the old bat off the task force the day after the election and publicly say he’s lost confidence in Fauci and wants him to resign.

    308. Tina says:

      Hope this is true and Aliro issues a stay:

      Luisito
      @crypto_passion
      · 3h
      Replying to @CottoGottfried
      Regarding the PA situation (court requiring counties to admit ballots without signature matching), Samuel Alito can issue a stay of this order without involving the full court. Hope he does it.

    309. MrVito says:

      The vbm partisan gap narrowed again.

      GOP has returned 59.1% of its vbm
      Dems have returned 62.9% of its vbm

      Under 4%.

    310. Phil says:

      Fauci has been working to elect Biden for months.

    311. mnw says:

      My impression is that there is a lot of gloom here tonight, even though the polls & EV data today have seemed OK to good.

    312. PhilS says:

      After re-election, Trump will have more flexibility.

    313. Tina says:

      When trump is re elected, he must terminate wrong Wray. The guy is an idiot.

      Then the cdc Director, lard arse. Masks better than a vaccine. Really?

      Then remove fraudci from task force, along with dr.briquette.

    314. Phil says:

      I think the polls are looking up for sure – but we should not be in denial as to what we face if we lose both the WH and the Senate.

      Democrats have told you exactly what they are going to do.

    315. Tina says:

      Those two “tea, players” started a lot of sheot as soon as Dr. atlas came aboard.

    316. NYCmike says:

      “Having studied the ebb and flow of politics for nearly 30 years now, I refuse to jump on one man’s cult of personality bandwagon and declare the entirety of Western civilization ends because of a single election.”

      -This is where you get it wrong, Wes.

      It is NOT just about Trump. His re-election does NOT bring about nirvana.

      The issue is that the Democratic Party, and their affiliates, with the unthinking assistance from a “free press”, have laid out what they would do if they grab the reins of power. The comment above lays it out quite nicely, as some of the current members of the Democratic Party have spoken in favor of the country mentioned:

      “You can vote yourself into socialism, you will have to shoot your way out.

      Look at Venezuela.”

    317. PhilS says:

      The danger from this election is very different from the past. The main change is that the results of this election have the risk of removing all checks and balances in US governance.

      With filibuster removed and SC packed, there is nothing to stop the CA and NY majority from imposing its brand of socialism on every one else.

    318. John says:

      Has anyone else notice that Hotair.com, just like the Drudgereport has now be taken over by ‘never-Trumpers?”

    319. Phil says:

      Cult of personality? Hell, it isn’t about Trump. It’s about a radical Democratic Party that has flat out told you the four institutional changes I mentioned above are exactly what they are going to do. Trump just happens to be the only one standing in their way at the moment. Hell, it could be any Republican President at the moment. It’s all that stands in their way.

      Once those four institutional changes are made there is no going back.

    320. Phil says:

      327

      Well said. The checks on unbridled power will have been removed – permanently, so yeah, it is different – VERY different.

    321. Phil says:

      I never go there anymore, John.

      It is disgusting.

    322. Tina says:

      And these peeps are nuts.

      The Columbia Bugle Flag of United States
      @ColumbiaBugle
      ·
      1h
      LMAO Tucker Carlson Dunking On Dopey Liberals On Twitter Over Their “Coyotes” Confusion

      “What a lot of prominent Trump haters heard was that huge feral canines were dragging children across the Sonoran Desert.”

    323. Tina says:

      Breaking

      Senator Johnson has said that trump will easily win Wisconsin.

    324. PhilS says:

      My best estimate Is that Trump will be 3-5% above his 2016 results everywhere.

    325. Scooterboy says:

      In regards to the Minnesota ad buy.

      In response to my question about the size of the TV buy, Stepien says it’ll be “heavy.”

      “You won’t be able to turn on the TV without seeing a Trump ad,” he says.

    326. MikeP says:

      Scooter,
      Iam see a lot of Trump commercials on Fox Business early evening time in Houston area

    327. Bitterlaw says:

      Phil is right. Institutional changes can never be undone. That is why we only have 6 SCOTUS Justices. That is why only white male property owners can vote. That is why we do not directly elect Senators. That is why the military, including the Army Air Corps, will never be integrated.

      Oh. Wait….

    328. SweatyToothedMadman says:

      #306, horse hockey! If the Kelly photo is from his high school years – then it’s foolish for McSally to make it an issue because we all did stupid stuff in high school.

      McSally is a weak candidate. She should be going after Kelly by tieing him to Schumer, Pelosi, AOC, and Antifa.

    329. MikeP says:

      One thing I am NOT seeing are TRUMP OR Biden yard sign this election. In 2018 the my neighborhood was full of competing Beto and Cruz signs. At least, I am seeing mostly Trump sign what there are of them. I have a Trump yard sign though

    330. MikeP says:

      Kelly was a student at the Merchant Marine Academy, not high school

    331. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      321. “My impression is that there is a lot of gloom here tonight.”

      People are getting more pensive as the election approaches. I actually think Trump has a better chance of reelection now I did last week. He had a good debate performance, and is also doing better in the polls. Biden is now on the defensive regarding fracking and oil/ gas drilling. Also, the Hunter Biden laptop scandal is hitting Biden hard. It is pretty clear that old Joe was getting his share of the take.

    332. MrVito says:

      In GA, the latest splits are down to 31% black, and whites up to 63%.

      In 2016 the exits claimed it was 60% white and 30% black.

    333. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      339. If I had a Trump sign in my window; the window would be smashed by a rock within days. I know a lot of people voting for Trump who will not tell anyone except their close friends. It is one of the many reasons I do not think polls are very reliable this election.

    334. Phil says:

      So I guess you are fine with court packing, Bitter? That should remove the Supreme Court as a check (which as you well know it is designed to do) Four more permanent Democratic senators? No prob, right? That’s permanent too – also designed solely to cultivate power.

      Just out of curiosity, explain how any radical legislation can be stopped without the filibuster.

      I’ll hang up and listen. This ought to be good.

    335. mnw says:

      342 Vito

      That’s identical to 2016, as I’m sure u know, IF you assume Trump will run even a little batter among AA voters this time– which everyone on both sides agree that he will.

      In 2016, Trump carried GA by 5% & change.

      I don’t find it hard to believe that result will be replicated in GA in 2020, especially given today’s Landmark poll for GA.

    336. mnw says:

      Landmark earlier this week had Trump +4 in GA, which is up from their previous GA poll, altho the sample size was just 500 LVs.

    337. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      There are no troll posts on this thread. Maybe their not paid for weekend work? Or maybe our hard working, but often underappreciated, board moderator/wizard got tired of them and took action.

    338. Phil says:

      If Trump carries Florida he carries Georgia and NC as well. He’ll get Iowa and Ohio. It comes down to carrying one of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pa if they don’t steal that one).

    339. mnw says:

      Nate Silver:

      “Recent Congressional district polls show a 10 or 11 point shift to Biden since 2016, which would imply a 12-13 point Biden lead.”

    340. Hugh says:

      Mnw. Unless you believe that crap why do you bother to post it? It’s ridiculous. I’m tired of getting irritated from fake narratives from dems. I don’t need it from our team. So who are you and what is your goal?? If posting ridiculous crap somehow makes you feel better and you support trump keep it to yourself. And leave us alone.

    341. Phil says:

      Boy, is Nate Slimer going to look like a complete fool.

      I can’t believe this guy.

    342. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      The irony is that Nate Silver got blasted by Vox in a November 3, 2016 article for given Hillary a 67% change of winning:

      “Just last week, Nate Silver’s polls-only forecast gave Hillary Clinton an overwhelming 85 percent chance of winning. But as of Thursday morning, her odds have fallen down to 66.9 percent — suggesting that while Donald Trump is still the underdog, there’s a one-in-three shot he’ll end up the next president.
      Liberals have tried to comfort themselves with the knowledge that FiveThirtyEight is an outlier among the six major forecasts, and that the other five give Trump between a 16 percent and a sub-1 percent chance of winning.
      Furthermore, in a year when Clinton has long led the vast majority of polls both nationally and in contests where more than 270 electoral votes are at stake, critics have questioned the significance of the FiveThirtyEight model’s dramatic swings back and forth.”

      https://www.vox.com/2016/11/3/13147678/nate-silver-fivethirtyeight-trump-forecast

    343. mnw says:

      Hugh

      “Who are you and what is your goal?”

      I’m a retired federal prosecutor (27 years). Not sure what my goal is, but I’ve given to Trump until my ears bleed.

      I guess I like to put up the other side’s propaganda sometimes, to see how our posters respond. Silver didn’t actually predict Biden by 12 or 13, he said that’s what the House district polls imply. He did say those polls included internals.

    344. Bitterlaw says:

      Phil- Zzzzzzzz. When did I say I was accepting any of the radical possibilities you envision? You are becoming very well known for your absolute predictions that never happen. Remember the inevitable nomination of Kamala, then Bernie, then Warren? I will give you half a point for Harris. Remember in 2016 when you said PA would NEVER vote GOP for President again?

    345. Hugh says:

      I’ve put significant money into this election as well. I have no interest in reading dem propaganda repeated on here from Trump supporters. I’m can’t see the point in it. I can go to many other places for that.

    346. Phil says:

      The four things I mentioned above are not predictions I pulled out of my ass.

      Democrats have told you they intend to do all four. They are telling you exactly what they will do. It’s not something I’m imagining.

      BTW, just to set the record straight, I never predicted Warren would win anything.

    347. Jeff G. says:

      “Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor! Hell no! And it ain’t over now!”

      It’s not over now, either. The USA will live past Nov. 3 — whatever may come. My fellow North Carolinian Wes speaks wisdom.

    348. BennSue says:

      Bitterlaw, I do respect your opinion and viewpoint. as a young attorney, are you amenable to me contacting you for legal advice/mentoring/? If not, no big deal. Thanks for your input.

    349. Phil says:

      Ask Senator Donnelly, McKaskill, and Nelson what they think of 538’s predictions. We could also ask Hillary what she thinks about Nate’s calls on Florida, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pa, and NC.

      Nate’s a bought and paid for Leftist hack and he’s doing exactly what he did in 2016 only worse.

    350. mnw says:

      I think the response to my post from SDC in 352 is interesting & encouraging. I didn’t know that. The next time I see Silver quoted at another blog, such as Ace of Spades HQ, I’ll steal what SDC said & post it.

      The ONLY point of this little blog is amusement and diversion, btw.

      I read that Kim Klacik has raised almost $15 million. Her ads, which I see everywhere, are works of art. And every dime contributed to her is wasted, in terms of her having any chance to win. I see those beautiful ads, & I ponder where that money might have produced some real victories.

    351. mnw says:

      359 Phil

      Who said he WASN’T a leftist hack? It’s “McCaskill,” btw.

    352. Phil says:

      Thanks for the spelling lesson.

    353. lisab says:

      “was it over when the republicans bombed pearl harbor! hell no! and it ain’t over now!”

    354. Ridin' with Biden says:

      I just stopped by to say that the new Borat movie is one of the funniest I’ve seen. I was not prepared for the ominous dark turn near the end. I won’t spoil it here.

      The Rudy Guiliani scene was worst than I thought. Now there’s a pedophile.

      Polls look wonderous. Early voting numbers are amazing as well! Such a wonderful day. May God bless you all.

    355. Jeff G. says:

      lisab, I apologize for when I have been rude to you in the past. I enjoy reading your posts with the Minnesota perspective.

    356. Ridin' with Biden says:

      Golly. It appears that Lou Dobbs is telling South Carolinians to NOT vote for Mr. Graham.

      How amazing would it be if Mr. Graham were to be defeated. That would be the most wonderful Senate seat.

    357. michael corleone says:

      Can DJT win NV? Rs gain 3500 in Clark today In person (mail in update not available so don’t know if Ds offset) and Rs had 1800 in person voter edge in Washoe; with mail in tabulated it was a net gain of about 1000 in Washoe. Lots of rurals for both yesterday and today yet to report.

    358. Phil says:

      Yeah, Basement Boy. Add SC to your wet dream fantasy of Alaska and Kansas. Let me know how that one goes for you.

    359. Phil says:

      369

      It absolutely was winnable before the Democratic Governor and legislature put their thumb on the scale and radically changed the election laws.

    360. lisab says:

      lisab, I apologize for when I have been rude to you in the past.
      —————————–

      apology accepted, however i don’t remember any nastiness between us

      i sincerely apologize if i caused you any harm. again i don’t remember any nastiness.

      for the record, i don’t take many things personally, especially on the internet

    361. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      Scott Rasmussen did a poll of 1,000 likely voters in Utah of whether children should be allowed to trick-or-treat. Utah has the highest number of children per family. The CDC classifies trick-or-treating as a high risk activity.

      The response to the poll:

      33% said children should be able to trick-or-treat as usual;

      37% said children should be able to trick-or-treat with health considerations, like wearing masks and social distancing;

      25% said there should be not trick-or-treating.

      %% Not sure

    362. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      373 5% Not Sure.

    363. Jeff G. says:

      lisab, I have a nearly eidetic memory. I was rude; you were not. It goes back 10 years. You may not remember, but I do.

    364. JC says:

      SweatyToothedMadman says:

      #306, horse hockey! If the Kelly photo is from his high school years – then it’s foolish for McSally to make it an issue because we all did stupid stuff in high school.
      —————

      Hmm… If the shoe were on the other foot….

      Oh yes! I see it clearly. McSally dressed up as Hitler would literally be on the front page of every news paper and there would be wall to wall nonstop coverage on the alphabet news channels. “How horrible!” They say. “How bigoted!” They cry.

      Democratic Jews would be lined up to talk about how much the ‘neo-nazi’ McSally caused them unbearable pain. ‘McSally’ and ‘nazi’ would be in every headline until Election Day. And every Republican in the country, including Trump, would now need to be asked (repeatedly) to go on record denouncing neo nazism and McSally. God help them if they didn’t. The Mitt Romney’s and the Ben Sasse’s would be out spreading their virtue signaling peacock feathers, demanding that McSally resign immediately.

      And McSally would be finished. And a whole swath of close down ballot races would be lost because the media successfully tied republicans and neo nazis into the unconscious bias of the voters.

      Screw that. If the dems would use it to bludgeon us with it, then we should do the same.

    365. JC says:

      McSally would be politically negligent not to use this prize gifted to her in the last stretch of the election.

      Humans are highly visual creatures, and a photo like this makes for a really good visual anchor for the public to center on. Something like this might just be the little extra unconscious push for the soft republican voters she’s bleeding that Trump is not.

    366. JC says:

      BTW, anyone remember Christine O’Donnel being smeared as a witch (Wiccan) because she was dressed up as a witch in an old Halloween photo?

    367. Jeff G. says:

      JC, you’re preaching to the choir, my man. Amen.

    368. lisab says:

      lisab, I have a nearly eidetic memory. I was rude; you were not.
      ————————

      well, i have a memory like a steel ceive,

      so no worries 🙂

    369. lisab says:

      ** steel sieve

    370. Wes says:

      JC says:
      October 24, 2020 at 2:13 am
      BTW, anyone remember Christine O’Donnel being smeared as a witch (Wiccan) because she was dressed up as a witch in an old Halloween photo?

      No, because it didn’t happen. What actually happened was that O’Donnell appeared on Bill Maher’s show in 1999 and claimed to have dabbled in Wicca. This led to joking references to her as a witch and a sanctimonious ad by her that was just one more mistake in a campaign filled with them.

    371. JeffP says:

      333 Tina…Johnson has said that about WI more than once. With confidence too…

    372. JeffP says:

      I am feeling pretty good about MI and WI. We will see where Trump goes in the next 10 days.

    373. Bitterlaw says:

      HHR (Double)Standard:

      Accused (falsely) of assaulting a woman during high school – Unfair if appointed by Trump to SCOTUS.

      Accused (accurately) of being dressed in a Nazi costume at a party in High School or shortly thereafter. Fair campaign issue if “Nazi” is a Democrat.
      Politics is war. I get it. It is just ironic. I know the Dems would use it.

    374. Gordon Allen says:

      I think after Biden’s error re fracking I think Pennsylvania too. Where the assurance of a Biden victory comes from beats me.

    375. JeffP says:

      There is a STRONG possibility that the craziness we see with the radical left, Covid fear porn, riots, etc…will be throughly rejected by the electorate. I guess my greatest fear is that it won’t.

      This is where the close states WI MI MN PA will really be impacted I think in Trumps favor. I also wonder how close states like VA, NM, NV, CO, OR will be too. What if NY is not a typical blowout for Biden?

    376. Tina says:

      Jeffp, I believe trump will be re elected

      He dominated the final debate, while Biden Imploded.

    377. Tina says:

      His end to fracking hurts Wisconsin’s fracking sand production.

      I cannot believe he said he did not call to ban fracking. Trump lit him up on that and produced a video that trump tweeted.

      The video was played yesterday at both Florida rallies.

    378. George says:

      Trump Landslide Coming:

      • Republican Support: 77% (2016) vs. 96% (projected 2020). That’s 10,000,000 votes!

      • Evangelical Christians: 81% (2016) vs. 90% (projected 2020)

      • Hispanics: 28% (2016) vs. 36.5% (projected in 2020). A potential swing of 8.8 million from 2016.

      • Catholics: 45% (2016) vs. 53% (projected 2020). A potential swing of 12.4 million votes from 2016.

      • Black vote: 8% (2016) vs. 15% (projected 2020). A potential swing of 6.8 million votes from 2016.

      In addition Americans believe that they are better off now than 4 years ago at a record high:
      Gallop poll 56% better off now than 4 years ago a record high!

      Another indicator that President Trump will win the election is the markets are at or near all time highs.

      Gallup’s Party Affiliation findings:

      Now it is R+1 (28R to 27D)

      This time in 2016 it was D+5 (R27 to D32)

      6-pt shift.

      https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/10/2020-election-prediction-despite-massive-headwinds-democrat-attempts-steal-election-president-trump-will-win-larger-landslide-2016/?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=PostSideSharing

    379. JeffS says:

      JeffP- I’m in agreement with you. I see Trump doing better than 2016, not just in red and toss up states, but in blues as well. Look for Hillary Von Pantsuit’s popular vote win to be cut in half. Or better. James will ride Trump’s coattails to a Senate GOP pickup, possibly others.

    380. Tina says:

      Kelly is now the Space Fuhrer

    381. Tgca says:

      Twee
      Nointee
      Noin

    382. Tgca says:

      Cuatro Cientos pootahs!

    383. Tina says:

      Wow, Cn and n calling out China Biden’s lie on fracking

      https://mobile.twitter.com/abigailmarone/status/1319770001935650816

    384. hugh says:

      Republicans finally picking up steam in NC net gain of over 13K votes versus 7k the prior day.

    385. Chicon says:

      390 – being accused of bad stuff 20+ years later with no evidence or corroboration v. a photo of a person dressed as Hitler.

      Total equivalent. To someone, I guess….

    386. Tina says:

      Larry Schweikart
      @LarrySchweikart
      ·
      19m
      1) Morning numbers
      And here . . . we. . . go.
      NC early voting
      1,206,995 Ds (40.82%)
      879,222 Rs (29.74%)
      Democrat advantage of 327K in EV
      For the third straight day of early voting, Rs out-voted Ds in NC, this time by roughly 13,000 votes

    387. Wes says:

      What site is that from, Hugh? The Civitas Vote Tracker still has Thursday’s totals.

    388. Tina says:

      Trump returning to palm beach after the Pensacola rally last night.

      https://mobile.twitter.com/DanScavino/status/1319847206090952706

    389. Scooterboy says:

      I read somewhere that since 1968, every time Florida moved further to the right, Michigan & Pennsylvania moved with it.

    390. Wes says:

      Recently I speculated Dems may have frontloaded their early voting turnout, Tina. So far it appears I was correct.

    391. Tina says:

      Wes, you called it.

      Larry says there are 10 days left to ev?

      2016 was d plus 310,000.

      We can continue to chip away.

    392. Tina says:

      Wes one more nugget:

      Larry Schweikart
      @LarrySchweikart
      ·
      10m
      2) Currently black vote continues to fall, now to 20.55%. In 2016, when Zero won NC by a single point, he had over 23% of the black vote. So even allowing for blacks who are voting for Trump (say 12-15%), the black vote is already 3% down from the Zero high of 2012.

    393. Tina says:

      I think he meant 2008.

      Not sure what it was in 2016

    394. Wes says:

      NC early voting ends on Halloween, Tina. That means eight days to go counting today.

    395. Tina says:

      Thanks, I don’t think his second tweet about black voting is correct. Dates appear wrong.

      (He usually reports this information from a person at Free Republic)

    396. Wes says:

      Schweikart meant 2008, Tina.

      Blacks comprised a quarter of the NC electorate in 2008 with Obama garnering almost 100% of their vote. Since then their numbers have been lower with Dems running several points behind Obama’s 2008 showing in that demographic.

    397. Tina says:

      A replier to Larry indicates

      Date should be 2008 when zero won.

      At end of 2016, black vote was 22%.

      Not sure if the replier is right on the second point.

    398. Wes says:

      Thanks, Hugh and Vito.

    399. JeffP says:

      407…Tina…I saw that too. Unbelievable that many would all line up just to see Trump drive by. That man is really loved. His love for our country is palpable regardless of his hubris at times. The America first message is a winning message for sure.

    400. Tina says:

      Dan scavino has some excellent video behind the scenes, Jeffp.

      In the tweet he said that the trump campaign called a lid at 11:55 pm.

    401. Wes says:

      Whites have inched upward from 66.67% of total turnout to 67.18%. That’s good news for Trump and Tillis.

      I wish I could say the same for Forest.

    402. Tgca says:

      If voter turnout is as energized for Trump as recently shown in various polls and what I see as anecdotal in the Sewer State and elsewhere, me expects The Donald will get up to 325 EV but weez will see…so get out and vote bishes!

    403. Wes says:

      I wonder how much support from military voters “Family Values” Cal lost after being outed as Jody Cunningham.

    404. JeffP says:

      I mentioned this yesterday I think. But there are some really great GOP congressional candidates from all backgrounds. Tons of very sharp women, a few very good minority candidates, several Alpha Dan Crenshaw military types. They all ooze leadership and confidence. I need to make a spreadsheet and follow this more.

    405. Tgca says:

      I have a fwend in CA who was your typical white working middle class lib type who was a supporter of Hillary until she went all conspiracy and bitter after 2016.

      He now sends me links ranting and raving about the crazy @ss libs and the MSM. He is soooooo tired of the race baiting and attacking people for alternative views. He is married to an Asian woman and both now are Trump supporters.

      However, because he lives in the vast waste of libs in CA, he dare not say anything to many around him, especially at work. He’s one of those hidden Trump voters, I’ve seen some in the Sewer State too…not that it matters there.

      Amazing how a little craziness can change everyday folks into normal people like me I tell ya.

    406. Smack says:

      All Early Voting – Florida

      Oct 23rd / 7:00pm

      DEM: 2,262,395 43.43%

      GOP: 1,874,060 35.97%

      Oct 24th / 8:45am

      DEM: 2,282,369 43.36%

      GOP: 1,896,370 36.03%

    407. jaichind says:

      I wonder how the MSM will play the COVID-19 this last week. Will they
      a) Play up the rising infections to continue the narrative that Trump failed on COVID-19 to turn marginal independents against Trump
      OR
      b) Do not play up the rising infections since doing so might depress Dem election day turnout while the GOP base turns out anyway not buying the MSM hype on COVID-19

    408. Wes says:

      I just read an article about NC-Sen where “Family Values” Cal’s campaign is saying his support in the race has solidified despite his spate of affairs.

      Polls indicate otherwise, and Republicans are eating in the Dems’ early voting advantage.

      Ergo, I hope “Family Values” Cal continues to remain oblivious to developments in the race.

      Addendum: I also notice they point out “Family Values” Cal’s staunchest supporters are staying with him. Well, obviously. It’s the nature of staunch partisans to stand by their Jody–err, man. It’s the soft voters–i e, the persuadables–Republicans are targeting by highlighting “Family Values” Cal’s salacious personal life during the campaign.

      Bill Clinton and Donald Trump could get away with this kind of thing because of their personal reputations as faithless rakes. “Family Values” Cal tried to portray himself as a faithful family man who would be a voice for the people. Once his real character surfaced, his strongest pitch to voters was undermined.

    409. jason says:

      Bitterlaw says:
      October 24, 2020 at 8:10 am

      HHR (Double)Standard:

      Accused (falsely) of assaulting a woman during high school – Unfair if appointed by Trump to SCOTUS.

      Accused (accurately) of being dressed in a Nazi costume at a party in High School or shortly thereafter. Fair campaign issue if “Nazi” is a Democrat.’

      What HHR double standard?

      Bitter just loves those false equivalencies.

      Sen. Blumenthal called Kavanaugh a “rapist” on national TV. Based on what exactly?

    410. MrVito says:

      Now 90% chance That invest95L will be a storm hitting the gulf before the election.

    411. jason says:

      I think Dem Governors should tell Dems it is too dangerous to vote on election day.

    412. jason says:

      Trump at 40% in PA and 48% in AZ on Predictit.

      That would be the ball game.

    413. Sheeple,Jr. says:

      I know this is a minority opinion, but I am a skeptic of the IBD/TIPP 5-Day Tracking Poll. Trump is down 6.4% today whereas he was down about 2 1/2% on Wednesday. The region where Trump has crashed according to this pollster is the Mid-West where Trump was even in midweek to down by 20 pts. today.Tracking polls usually do not show dramatic swings on a daily basis.
      Maybe the pollster got “lucky” in 2016. Also, this is the pollster during Trump’s 4 years who almost always had Trump’s approval in the mid to high 30’s whereas, it almost always had Obama’s eight years of approvals at 50% or higher.

    414. Wes says:

      Didn’t you hear, Jason?

      Kavanaugh hosted rape parties in college.*

      *No, I couldn’t type that with a straight face.

    415. Tina says:

      Tracking polls are bad.

      Not a fan of them,

      Somebody also said that trump is getting 8 percent of the black vote and 22 percent of Hispanics in that tipp poll.

      No way in heck is he “crashing” in the Midwest after China’s Biden statement on ending oil.

    416. MrVito says:

      Tracking polls fluctuate… it’s what they do.

      I don’t understand why people here still look at every daily change as if it is movement.

    417. hugh says:

      It is all about states now. In a week, even with the new phenom of massive vbm we should now the likely fate of FL and NC. We then just need to lock down AZ and get one upper midwest state. A 20pt swing in a region in a tracking poll at one point in time is not that much. Too few voters. My feeling is that when TIPP and RAS went to double digit leads to becoming close means they are not worth much. I have a little more confidence in RAS because they have done it forever. TIPP I simply do not trust. Too much at stake and everyone puts their finger on the scale to get a preferred result. If Gallup is close to right on their October poll then all the rest of these national polls mean nothing or the state polls for that matter.

    418. MrVito says:

      Expect the next set of Gallup numbers to be more Dem. It covers the negative news cycle at the beginning of October.
      You may have to wait close to Election Day to see if Gallup releases or discusses its late October numbers.

    419. Sheeple,Jr. says:

      The GOP has crossed 200,000 net in-person votes in the Sunshine State.

      https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/

    420. MrVito says:

      Also, the 3way party ID numbers are non predictive. They keep getting mentioned here.

      It is the 2way D-R numbers with leaners that has historical value. I really expect the next set to be D+6 to 8 over the D+3 it is now.

    421. Gordon Allen says:

      Crashed 20 points in the Midwest where virtually every state poll in that area shows him up or very close. Blacks at 8% and Hispanics at 22% is less than Trump got in 2016. Maybe they meant mid west California?

    422. hugh says:

      A thought on predictit and NC polls. There is not way no how that tillis does worse than trump with cunningham’s problems. It does not pass the smell test at any level. If i bet on elections I would go make a ton of money betting tillis right now. And what you will find everytime you bet and the odds move up for tillis a big dem bet will be made to keep it looking like tillis is losing. Way too many people now like to discuss betting odds. It is very cheap advertising to keep a narrative. Particularly for the senate race versus the pres race. 2.3M on pres race in NC and only 763K on the senate race. As has been noted before many more bets made for reps then dems, but the dem bets are much larger. Pretty obvious what is going on. They have endless money to spend.

    423. Robbie says:

      Last night, Pandemic Overlord Fauci gave his 1267 interview on CNN last night and called for a national mask mandate. The plan the little guy offered on CNN was almost word for word what Biden says he wants to do. Still, the Keebler Elf of Covid bristled when confronted with Trump’s criticism he’s a Democrat.

      Time for another Presidential Medal of Freedom, right?

    424. Pitchaboy says:

      Be aware IBD only polls 200 people daily. They are subject to big sample errors on daily basis. They use 7 days to average it out.

    425. Pitchaboy says:

      As the EV numbers dwindle in NC, Predictit will turn red. While the big cash D bettors can play games now, they will protect their downsides at some point.

    426. Robbie says:

      Pitchaboy says:
      October 24, 2020 at 10:36 am
      Be aware IBD only polls 200 people daily. They are subject to big sample errors on daily basis. They use 7 days to average it out.

      – This is a good point. A normal 3 or 4 day poll selects a group of people that is representative of the country and then tries to contact them over the period of poll.

      A daily tracking poll selects a group that’s representative of the country and then tries to contact all of them in one day. They then do the same thing with a new group the next day.

      A tracking poll is less about the margin and more about identifying any trends.

    427. MrVito says:

      Dade has flipped to GOP in early voting.

      Vbm cannibalization.

    428. MrVito says:

      *in person early voting

    429. Stonewall DW says:

      Ronna McDaniel
      @GOPChairwoman
      · 14h
      FLORIDA is fired up for @realDonaldTrump!

      Pensacola Rally:

      ? 18,536 signups

      ? 25.2% NOT Republican

      ? 31.5% did not vote in 2016

      Villages Rally:

      ? 14,225 signups

      ? 19.1% NOT Republican

      ? 27.8% did not vote in 2016

    430. Tina says:

      Vito what about Leon? Is this a concern? One person was concerned about it. The Ds look down in Orange.

      I know it’s early.

      A few counties:
      *Flagler Rs +34 (2016 Trump +27)
      *Leon Ds +27 (2016 Cankles +25)
      *Santa Rosa Rs+54% (2016 Trump +53)
      *Orange Ds+20 (2016 Cankles +25)

    431. MrVito says:

      452 No, those are all fine.

    432. Gordon Allen says:

      I’m pro Trump and expecting a Trump victory. But just like I don’t believe most polls,I have y hard time believing Ronna McDaniel’s figures on Democrat’s/ non voters at these rallies. I think there’s fibbing going on there,just as there is to pollsters. Wish I was a 100% believer,but even half would be really good news.

    433. Tina says:

      Thanks Vito.

    434. mnw says:

      455 Gordon

      I take it at face value. I really do. But… it’s still just what? Appx 20-30000 people (both rallies combined)– a drop in the ocean in FL.

    435. Tina says:

      Beverly Hills is boarding up and shutting down for the election.

      Please unboard it quickly, I plan being there in late November

    436. pitchaboy says:

      Some of the people attending rallies go there just for the spectacle.

    437. Tina says:

      Trump supporters take over Biden’s rally in Bucks co, pa.

      https://mobile.twitter.com/mj_lee/status/1320030454582546432

    438. jason says:

      Last night, Pandemic Overlord Fauci”

      Zzzzzz….

      He is only Overlord for Robbie and his MSM mentors.

      For the rest of the world, he is a distinguished member of the President’s Coronavirus Task Force.

    439. Tina says:

      I think a Jebot claimed he was broke.

      Ronna McDaniel
      @GOPChairwoman
      ·
      22m
      Entering Oct:
      White heavy check markObama ‘12 149.1M
      White heavy check markHillary ‘16: 165.0M
      White heavy check markTrump ‘20: 251.6M

    440. jason says:

      I don’t believe most polls,I have y hard time believing Ronna McDaniel’s figures on Democrat’s/ non voters at these rallies”

      They report what people answer in the questionnaire. Maybe some people are not being honest. But those numbers have been consistent for months.

    441. Tina says:

      Lol who did you vote for?

      ABC News
      @ABC
      ·
      1h
      JUST IN: Pres. Donald Trump casts his vote in the 2020 presidential election: “I voted for a guy named Trump.” https://abcn.ws/2J3OGmL

    442. DarrelMak says:

      ???????? ? HD ???????? ????????? https://zhopkin.club/categories/%D0%9F%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%B4%D0%BE%D1%81/

      https://zhopkin.club/ ?????????? ?±???»???€???µ ?????°???????‹?µ ???????‹

    443. Smack says:

      All Early Voting – Florida

      Oct 23rd / 7:00pm

      DEM: 2,262,395 43.43%

      GOP: 1,874,060 35.97%

      Oct 24th / 8:45am

      DEM: 2,282,369 43.36%

      GOP: 1,896,370 36.03%

      Oct 24th / 11:28am

      DEM: 2,345,995 43.07%

      GOP: 1,972,842 36.22%

    444. Stonewall DW says:

      So far in Miami-Dade the voters registered as Republican have returned 167,442 ballots. About 25% of the ballots returned in Miami-Dade are unaffiliated voters.

      In 2016, Trump got 333,999 total votes in Miami-Dade.

      He appears to be well on his way to exceeding that 2016 total.

    445. Stonewall DW says:

      “You can vote your country into socialism, but you will have to shoot your way out it.”

      That was a great quote.

    446. Dylan says:

      Does anyone even remember if George HW Bush even campaigned in 1992? Did he hold rallies? Or did he just expect to win and was shocked by the result?

    447. PhilS says:

      I see assertions that US has survived turmoils before, and “the pendulum always swings back”.

      Any roadmap of when and how the pendulum swings back in California?

      “It is always darkest before dawn”.

      Any idea when and how there will be light in Venezuela?

    448. Phil says:

      Fauci is all in for Biden, Jason and has been all along.

    449. Stonewall DW says:

      “Any idea when and how there will be light in Venezuela?”

      For some, yes. Those who are in south Florida right now voting for Trump.

    450. mnw says:

      RE: “darkest before dawn”? REALLY?

      You can always hire half the poor to shoot the other half.

      It’s probably pretty dark right before a nuclear winter starts, too.

      On another topic, I’m very encouraged that Team Trump is going back up on TV in MN. Apparently in a major way, too. Would they do that if they thought they were behind in PA?

    451. PhilS says:

      Trump is sitting at 326 EVs right now. There’s still 10 days left.

    452. Tina says:

      Mnw

      Three rallies today

      He said he will do 5 a day.

    453. Gordon Allen says:

      Jason. I’m not doubting her,just some answers on questionnaires. If they’re close to right,the polls have been totally off. Which is what on want.
      While flipping the channel for a football game,I saw Trump in North Carolina. He was jovial and assured,like the cat who has cornered the canary. I don’t think he thinks he’s behind, rightly or wrongly,but rather is near victory. Or he seriously learned acting on the apprentice.

    454. mnw says:

      476 Gordon

      Your observation coincides with my own.

      He either really believes he’s going to win, or he could’ve given Lawrence Olivier some serious competition for best actor the century. One of the two.

      Of course, he can believe & still be wrong.

    455. Tina says:

      Independent Women’s Voice
      · 4h
      “I had to remind him that he was a black person, so he can’t vote for Donald Trump.” Chelsea Handler to @50cent.

    456. Tina says:

      eplorableDonna??Cult45 TEXT TRUMP TO 88022??
      ·
      41m
      Shock Poll: Trump Down One Point Among Black Voters in Battleground Michigan https://breitbart.com/politics/2020/10/24/shock-poll-donald-trump-down-one-point-among-black-voters-in-battleground-michigan/… via
      @BreitbartNews

    457. Jeff G says:

      Trump can’t drive turnout by not appearing confident. One thing leads to the other. I think it’s a little bit of both – he truly believes he’s ahead, but he has to sell it to keep people motivated.

    458. Tina says:

      Trump War Room – Text TRUMP to 88022
      · 1h
      WATCH: Joe Biden insults Pennsylvanians who don’t support him, calls them “chumps”

    459. mnw says:

      479 Tina

      That’s a dead link.

    460. jaichind says:

      469. I was in college at the time. 1992 was the first Prez election I voted in. It clear Bush was going to lose. I recall there were some Bush rallies but not too many. They were well attended and Bush tried to keep them upbeat but everyone can tell he was going down to defeat.

      In the end Bush lost by a smaller than expected margin. Most polls in 1992 (hopefully Nate is is reading) overestimated the White working class vote for Clinton and underestimated them for the populist Perot. Perot overperformed which was not enough to keep Clinton from voting but what was expected to be a near double digit Clinton victory to a 5.5% Clinton win.

    461. Tina says:

      Biden wandering the stage while Jill is speaking.

      Wtf is going on here?

      https://twitter.com/FrancisBrennan/status/1320027653953507328

    462. Tina says:

      Mnw, saw it. Sorry.

    463. mnw says:

      479 Tina

      I found the poll by going to the Breitbart “politics” page.

      It’s a “Zia poll.” Zia leaves a small footprint– I couldn’t find out anything about it via Google. Sample size was 2100 LV & newly registered. So, big sample. It had James ahead by a couple of points also.

    464. Stonewall DW says:

      484 – I didn’t listen to the audio, but I suppose Jill Biden was calling out for someone to call 911 to report a missing elderly memory care patient.

    465. Robbie says:

      jason says:
      October 24, 2020 at 12:01 pm
      Last night, Pandemic Overlord Fauci”

      Zzzzzz….

      He is only Overlord for Robbie and his MSM mentors.

      For the rest of the world, he is a distinguished member of the President’s Coronavirus Task Force.

      – Jason loves unelected bureaucrats who act as if they’re president.

      Fauci doesn’t offer insight or advice on coronavirus. He appears on CNN and MSNBC ad nauseum as a Joe Biden campaign surrogate.

      Just watch what happens, if Biden wins, and he turns over the coronavirus response completely to Fauci and the CDC.

      Are you are aware of what the CDC can do under their pandemic powers. They can order, without review, restrictions of business and trade that are so onerous that businesses would not be able to open. Ron DeSantis said this is his biggest concern.

    466. Tina says:

      Here is the link to Biden yelling and coughing.

      He called the trump supporters “chumps.”

      https://twitter.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1320035466159206402

    467. Robbie says:

      Phil says:
      October 24, 2020 at 1:06 pm
      Fauci is all in for Biden, Jason and has been all along.

      – Yep. Not even debatable. Have you read the “love letter” emails Fauci sent to Hillary in 2012? He called one of her speeches a “bases loaded homerun”. Normal people call that a grand slam.

    468. Justin says:

      FL and NC seem to be trending the right direction in early voting. Arizona looks concerning to me and close to 60% of the 2016 vote has been cast.

      Anyone have a positive perspective on AZ numbers?

      Of the core five (NC, FL, AZ, OH, and IA) my level of concern from most to least concerned is AZ, IA, NC, FL and big gap before OH.

    469. Tina says:

      Once trump wins, we can deal with fraudci.

      He is a lifer guvbment employee. He has to weigh in staying or leaving to write his “best seller.”

      With that said, axing the cdc director and the fib director are much higher on the list.

    470. PhilS says:

      An ill-educated baboon has more sense than Fauci.

    471. Tina says:

      Speaking of Bush 1992, the Biden event in PA today looks and sounds like the end to 41 campaign.

      Angry, dark, and bitter. 41 got in trouble for calling Al Gore, Bozo.

      This on top of a terrible final debate where he, like 41, looked at his watch.

    472. Bryan says:

      #490. If you saw the first pitch he threw out, you”d know baseball isn’t his forte 🙂

    473. Smack says:

      All Early Voting – Florida

      ———

      Oct 23rd / 7:00pm

      DEM: 2,262,395 43.43%

      GOP: 1,874,060 35.97%

      Oct 24th / 8:45am

      DEM: 2,282,369 43.36%

      GOP: 1,896,370 36.03%

      Oct 24th / 11:28am

      DEM: 2,345,995 43.07%

      GOP: 1,972,842 36.22%

      Oct 24th / 1:19pm

      DEM: 2,373,421 42.98%

      GOP: 2 003,929 36.29%

    474. Robbie says:

      Fauci is the Keebler elf of covid. He needs to go back to his tree and start baking cookies.

    475. Scooterboy says:

      Was in a local small town restaurant last night and a guy walked in wearing a huge Trump face, doing the Trump dance. The place went wild. I have never witnessed anything like that before. This was in Southern Illinois.

    476. Stonewall DW says:

      Scooter, these anecdotes are so plentiful. I do enjoy reading them too. Its sad to think that despite all the enthusiastic support, there could be still half the population who wish to vote to slit their own throats and embrace the permanent bondage of socialism and communism.

      We are in a cold-civil war that may well turn into a hot civil war. If I end up dying on a battlefield of that war, I will die fighting for my own free speech and the free speech of my enemy.

    477. Tgca says:

      Cinco Cientos ma-dee-cones!!!

    478. JeffP says:

      499…DW…me too. My sons friends talk about it frequently.

      When you mess with peoples liberty you understand why people die for it.

    479. Stonewall DW says:

      Furthermore, I just don’t believe the Libertarian candidate will get anywhere close to what Johnson got 4 years ago. Johnson got 3.28% of the vote.

      Libertarians know very well what is going on with the censorship by the media, twitter, and facebook.

      If it doesn’t absolutely terrorize them, then they are not being honest Libertarians. I would be surprised if Jorgensen can reach 2%. I am going to predict, nationally he gets no more than 1.5%.

      The rest who now say they are voting for him in the polls are parking their vote there for support of their party, but in the shadows of the voting booth, most of them will vote Trump.

    480. The Godfather says:

      Gravis released their final Pennsylvania poll-
      They have Biden winning the state by 7.

      They releasing their final Wisconsin poll today also.

    481. Stonewall DW says:

      Gravis did a 1 day sample, 602 likely voters. I can tell you plainly and factually, they did NOT poll the T of PA. They probably got some from Centre County (Penn State), but that’s it.

      Baris confirmed you have to poll PA for at LEAST 5 or 6 days to get a representative sample from the rural T. It is simply not possible to get that in 3 days, much less ONE day.

      So view this as a poll of PA without most of the Trump base in the poll.

    482. Stonewall DW says:

      Furthermore, here is the final Gravis PA poll from 2016:

      Hillary 46
      Trump 40
      Johnson 7
      Stein 2

      So yeah, they were off by 7 points on the margin. And in 2016 that was a FOUR day poll, so they reached more of the T than they did in this poll.

      This poll tells me Trump is in decent shape to win PA by about 80k.

    483. Stonewall DW says:

      And if Gravis is so stupid as to one-day poll Wisconsin, they will get Biden +9. Its a joke.

    484. Stonewall DW says:

      Its just sad, the condition to which polling has come. Gravis just wasn’t even trying. Just throw out there the questions for one day only, confirm that the results herd to what most others are saying and print it.

    485. JeffP says:

      Gravis polls are junk polls.

      People who think Trump losing will help bring civility are clueless. It is going to get much worse either way. They will hate Pence, Noem, DeSantis, Hawley, etc…just as much. As Trump says that they are attacking him they are attacking you. It isn’t going to stop anytime soon.

      MSM is done after this election… I just subscribed to the Epoch Times and will watch You Tube Channels I trust. If Trump loses Fox News is toast.

    486. Tina says:

      Primary this Beotch.

      Chad Pergram
      @ChadPergram
      · 4m
      GOP AK Sen Murkowski now on flr. Opposes forging ahead with Barrett. Says timing of confirmation will “reinforce the public percption about” political influence in the courts.

    487. JeffP says:

      Murky…She is toast if Trump wins.

    488. JeffP says:

      DW after listening to Baris for three weeks it has really helped me understand better what is going on. Look forward to Rust Belt polls next week.

    489. Annie says:

      My husband just had me watch a podcast that discussed in detail the many, many schemes and deals of the extended Biden crime family and the selling-out of our country for personal gain, including to the Chinese military and their nuclear weapons development program. Very shocking the extent of it all…and how Obama and Biden signed-off on Chinese companies associated with their military buying our technology. Joe Biden isn’t just a crook, he’s a compromised national security risk.

    490. Sy says:

      What is Trump doing in OH?

    491. dblaikie says:

      This is all to beef up RCP average. I have always hated this. How in the world can a poll taken 2 weeks ago figure in any way with what is going on today. This allows low thinking media types like Susan Smith not to actually try and see if a poll is legit. Who cares just throw it into the average. Does it matter that 2/3 of the average is bogus. No! Just throw it into the average and of course the average must be right. Polling is broken, and biased, and needs to have a major come to Jesus moment.

    492. Stonewall DW says:

      513 – its a layover on his flight from FL to Waukesha, WI. You know, get off the plane, stretch your legs, hold a rally to keep the base fired up, and move on to Waukesha.

    493. bob lee says:

      Lisa Murkowski just affirmed in the US Senate that she would vote to confirm Amy Comey Barrett for Associate Justice of the SC.

    494. dblaikie says:

      513 He is having a rally there. What an inane question. More than that he is on his way to Wisconsin. Do you need to know why he is going there? And why is Obama in Florida?

    495. Tina says:

      The pa event with China Biden and Bon Jovi is limited to party ops.

      This is sad.

    496. Stonewall DW says:

      full schedule

      TRUMP:

      Yesterday: The Villages, FL
      Yesterday: Pensacola, FL
      SAT: Lumberton, NC
      SAT: Circleville, OH
      SAT: Waukesha, WI
      SUN: Manchester, NH
      MON: Lititz, PA
      MON: Martinsburg, PA
      TUE: Lansing, MI
      TUE: West Salem, WI
      TUE: Omaha, NE

      PENCE:

      TODAY: Swanton, OH
      TODAY: West Mifflin, PA
      SAT: Lakeland, FL
      SAT: Tallahassee, FL
      SUN: Kinston, NC
      MON: Hibbing, MN

    497. dblaikie says:

      Tomorrow he is going to New Hampshire. I like that, it must be in play.

    498. Tina says:

      It’s being too cute, but I like her ultimate vote.

      Chad Pergram
      @ChadPergram
      ·
      3m
      2) Today Murkowski says “I oppose the process that led us to this point, but I do not hold it against her.”

      Murkowski says she will against cutting off the filibuster on Barrett’s nomination tomorrow. But will vote yes to confirm Barrett Monday night.

    499. Dylan says:

      GOP needs to primary Murkowski and Sasse the next time they are both up and they have a couple of years to cultivate superstars who are not going to be Joe Miller -esque. they need to start early

    500. dylan says:

      I was so tuned out in tat 1992 election. I guess that was pre-cable news juggernaut. I was quite surprised that HW lost but I guess it was clear to people paying attention. The Dems back then weren’t as obviously moon bat crazy but that WAS almost 30 years ago. I voted Perot. . . .RIP

    501. Yvgeney says:

      Most excellent work, Companya Annie.

      You must now share that most excellent podcast for viewing by your freedom-loving American friends. Share it all of your social media networks and message boards. It is important the freedom-loving Americans see our podcasts which are 100% true.

      We will be posting more podcasts in the next days.

      And always remember Joe Biden is the enemy of America.

      Great work companya!

    502. Gordon Allen says:

      Luntz said if the ” polls” are wrong AGAIN it’s the end of the polling industry. GREAT. The corruption of the media and the “polling” industry is beyond belief. We need a total and complete do over of both. So far their best efforts don’t seem to have held down Republican enthusiasm and turnout.

    503. Stonewall DW says:

      They said the same thing on the late election night coverage in 2016–polling industry is dead. But they just keep right on doing the same things.

    504. Annie says:

      Yvgeney/Hidin’ with Biden…

      First…You are a fool. Second…Ignoring the truth doesn’t make it go away.

    505. Tina says:

      Senator John Cornyn
      @JohnCornyn
      · 5h
      Texas Gov? Abbott: Biden’s transition from oil would ‘transition Texans from their paycheck https://washingtontimes.com/news/2020/oct/23/greg-abbott-texas-governor-biden-transition-oil-wo/… via @washtimes

    506. Dylan says:

      Notwithstanding what Luntz said about the future of polling, he ALSO said that it is “virtually impossible” for Trump to win.

    507. jason says:

      In the “you can’t make this sh-t up category”

      I heard a new Biden radio ad here in PA.

      “Joe Biden. Ideas that both parties can support”

    508. MikeKS says:

      I was very down about Trump’s chances just a week ago, but everything has flipped in the last week. he appears ahead in Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona, which along with Ohio and Iowa, take him to 258 electoral votes.

      If from there, he can hold on to NE-2 and ME-2, he’s at 260 and needs just one state to win. He doesn’t need either CD if he wins Michigan or Pennsylvania, and if he wins both, he would only need Wisconsin or MInnesota or a combination of Nevada and New Hampshire.

      If I were a Biden supporter right now, I”d be nervous, because if in fact Trump wins Florida, Arizona, and NC, suddenly the map flips and it’s Biden who needs to run the table.

      Also, the Senate is looking safe for Republicans. Ernst is ahead again, Tillis is clearly going to win, McSally has forced a tie, and it appears we’ll win Michigan. Frankly aside from Colorado at this point, we may win the rest – and if so, we may even gain a seat or two depending if James can win and we can win an upset in Minnesota, which appears increasingly possible.

    509. JulStol says:

      I looked over the Gravis crosstabs. Spot on about them obviously missing the T. The poll has Trump losing whites by 2%. That um…won’t happen. Shift it to Trump winning them by 12 points, which he will…

      The sample is clearly too suburban.

    510. OHIO Joe says:

      NC is going back and forth all day on Predicit. Currently, the GOP is winning with 52 cents on the dollar, AZ and PA are next to fall to the GOP.

    511. Tina says:

      John Cardillo
      @johncardillo
      ·
      1h
      .
      @JoeBiden
      says “I am going to be a president for all Americans,” then in the next sentence calls the Trump supporters outside his rally “chumps.”

    512. Tina says:

      Donald J. Trump
      @realDonaldTrump
      ·
      3h
      Debate Poll Average: 89% Trump. 11% Sleepy Joe Biden!

    513. Stonewall DW says:

      Robert C. Cahaly
      @RobertCahaly
      ·
      2m
      We see this same info in our
      @trafalgar_group
      #BattlegroundState #polls.
      @Rasmussen_Poll
      is right on target here.
      Quote Tweet

      Rasmussen Reports
      @Rasmussen_Poll
      · Oct 23
      Morning Reader Data Points:

      National Daily Black Likely Voter Job Approval For @POTUS – October 19-23, 2020

      Mon 10/19 – 25%
      Tue 10/20 – 24%
      Wed 10/21 – 31%
      Thu 10/22 – 37%
      Fri 10/23 – 46%

    514. jason says:

      Van Jones, an avowed communist, but at least an honest one…

      “I think it’s really unfortunate because Donald Trump, and I get beat up by liberals every time I say it but I keep saying it, he has done good stuff for the Black community,” Jones said. “Opportunity Zone stuff, Black college stuff, I worked with him on criminal stuff, I saw Donald Trump have African American people, formally incarcerated, in the White House, embraced them, treated them well. There is a side to Donald Trump that I think he does not get enough credit for.”

    515. Stonewall DW says:

      “I am going to be a president for all Americans,” then in the next sentence calls the Trump supporters outside his rally “chumps.”

      President for all non-chump Americans.

    516. jason says:

      “I will be your President, you deplorable racist scum”

      VOTE FOR ME!

    517. Tina says:

      Cahaly confirms movement by black Americans to trump.

      The Reckoning ? Retweeted

      Robert C. Cahaly
      @RobertCahaly
      ·
      5m
      We see this same info in our
      @trafalgar_group
      #BattlegroundState #polls.
      @Rasmussen_Poll
      is right on target here.
      Quote Tweet

      Rasmussen Reports
      @Rasmussen_Poll
      · Oct 23
      Morning Reader Data Points:

      National Daily Black Likely Voter Job Approval For @POTUS – October 19-23, 2020

      Mon 10/19 – 25%
      Tue 10/20 – 24%
      Wed 10/21 – 31%
      Thu 10/22 – 37%
      Fri 10/23 – 46%

    518. Sean says:

      Watch New Mexico for an outside R senate gain.

    519. jason says:

      I hope MikeKS is right, good analysis.

    520. Tina says:

      The buck county Biden rally is a disaster

      Dark, dreary, and he was yelling.

      Called trump supporters chumps.

      Then wandered the stage while Jill was speaking, looking lost.

    521. Tina says:

      If you nixie from the last debate, he usually did ok during the first hour of a debate. The last half hour were train wrecks.

      This time, he barely lasted 45 minutes.

    522. Stonewall DW says:

      Van Jones was the one who, on 2016 election night coverage, was blazing mad, saying the results (hillary lost) were a “white-lash against a black president.”

      And now we have Biden out there, whose outreach to the black community was nothing more than, “if you are undecided, then you ain’t black”…which being interpreted is…”you blacks have picked cotton your whole lives on the Democratic Party plantation, and so you just keep your mouths shut, and keep pickin’ our cotton.”

    523. Smack says:

      All Early Voting – Florida

      Oct 23rd / 7:00pm

      DEM: 2,262,395 43.43%

      GOP: 1,874,060 35.97%

      Oct 24th / 8:45am

      DEM: 2,282,369 43.36%

      GOP: 1,896,370 36.03%

      Oct 24th / 11:28am

      DEM: 2,345,995 43.07%

      GOP: 1,972,842 36.22%

      Oct 24th / 1:19pm

      DEM: 2,373,421 42.98%

      GOP: 2 003,929 36.29%

      Oct 24th / 3:02pm

      DEM: 2,397,396 42.92%

      GOP: 2,028,587 36.32%

    524. Tina says:

      Practically a Trump rally now. (Biden’s 3vent taken over).

      https://twitter.com/mj_lee/status/1320030454582546432

    525. Stonewall DW says:

      533 – thanks for confirming, but once I saw it was a one day sample, it was all that was needed to know the T (except for Centre County) was completely missed. Baris took the pains to extend his PA poll into a 5th and 6th day to just to get a bare minimum on the T, and even then it was still not adequately representative of the sample.

      1 day isn’t going to cut it.

    526. Big E says:

      Part of me knows they lost. Bidens campaign manager came out and said ihat it was close. Polosi started negotiations for a stimulus. Biden got Silicon valley executives to spend 100 million in adds in the last five days of the election. The biggest tell is the overall lack of polling. There is not a lot of senate polling or even house polling. The last two cycles there was a ton of polls. Now crickets. It is almost like they don’t want the results. All we see is junk with the excemption of Trafalger and Baris.

    527. Stonewall DW says:

      Here are the pollsters to pay attention to, in order of accuracy

      1) in a class by themselves:
      Trafalgar Group
      Big Data Poll (Baris)

      2) reliable most of the time, but some faults:
      Democracy Institute
      Susquehanna Research
      Emerson College

      3) Worth a look:
      Emerson College
      Rasmussen

      Then most of the rest of them a junk.

    528. Stonewall DW says:

      Emerson meant to be in the third groups with Rasmussen.

    529. Tina says:

      They hated each other a few months ago.

      Piers Morgan
      @piersmorgan
      Just had a 25-minute chat on the phone with President
      @realDonaldTrump
      from the White House.
      His last words? ‘Piers, I’m going to win.’
      6:28 AM · Oct 24, 2020·Twitter for iPhone

    530. Pitchaboy says:

      NC turning pink slowly at Predictit.

    531. Gatorjoel says:

      In answer to Justin’s post, there is no positive spin on early voting numbers in Arizona. Arizona is going to go for Biden by 4 to 5 points and remain reliably blue going forward. That is what happens when Trump makes racist and xenophobic comments about the state’s fastest growing demographic. I note none of you regular pro Trump posters have a positive spin on why Trump wins AZ. It is because he won’t!!

    532. Stonewall DW says:

      Predictit is telling a message to Silver:

      You have lost your power.

    533. Pitchaboy says:

      GatorBoy is back. SloJo will lose AZ by 4

    534. PhilS says:

      Pedophile Gator,

      Pedo Joe is struggling to save Delaware.

    535. Pitchaboy says:

      GatorBoy, where is your bro Hiden with Biden.

    536. Tina says:

      au ng
      @athein1
      #FL #EarlyVoting right now: IPEV map shows Rs leading decisively. Only 4 big cities have Ds doing well in IPEV: Tallahassee, Gainesville, Orlando and Ft Lauderdale. The rest of the state is swarmed by Rs in IPEV.

      https://twitter.com/athein1/status/1320101932329881602

    537. hugh says:

      AZ will be red by 4 to 5 and mcsally may squeak it out. The dems vbm looks good up front, but then fades. FL is gone. By mid next week NC will be shown as gone. Another few days later AZ will be heading in the same direction. Then we need must one. I think we will get more, but we will see. Dems can spend all they want on few but large bets to keep up the narrative, but trump voters just dont believe it. And best part is even the msm polls show that even with a fake lead for biden the people polled think trump will win.

      Biden blew it in the debate on oil. He will lose PA.

    538. Chicon says:

      When looking at the early voting numbers, how do we determine whether heavy voting by one side’s peeps is a great sign of enthusiasm, or a bad case of the dreaded cannibalization of votes?

    539. Pitchaboy says:

      SloJo never had it to blow it. The fantasy world spun by Silverhack and Co. is folding.

    540. PhilS says:

      Pedophile Biden knows he is finished. He’s not even pretending to campaign anymore.

    541. Gatorjoel says:

      McSally is a joke of a candidate. Dems have too big of lead in EV in AZ and too much of vote is in. The state is gone for Trump. What analysis does anyone have to the contrary?

    542. LewisS says:

      Regarding “cannibalization” of votes, I’m not sure I understand how people are using that term.

      I take it as saying one side is getting their highest propensity voters to vote early (4 for 4 voters or 3 for 4 voters).

      Is this a correct understanding? And how do you measure this?

      It seems to me the most important thing to look at in early voting is which areas are voting. For example if the rural vote is showing higher turnout than the big city vote.

    543. PhilS says:

      You need to go and hump Joe, Gator. He misses you.

    544. Stonewall DW says:

      From what I have heard, the GOP is making a huge push to get the early votes banked among new voters, and those most risky, like elderly, etc., saving for election day those ranked in category 4, who will crawl over broken glass, for election day voting.

    545. Sheeple,Jr. says:

      This may have already been posted,but Lisa Murkowski(R-AK) is a no on cloture for Amy Barrett and a YES on confirmation.

      http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3897593/posts

    546. Gatorjoel says:

      PhilS-you are a total moron with your insults! Have no intelligence or ability to do any analysis. Keep your wishful thinking loser. Biden wins AZ and the presidency and I can’t wait to come back on here on election night to have some fun!!

    547. Pitchaboy says:

      To accurately measure cannibalization, you need to know: number of new voters and % of RV that have voted. Both parties are cannibalizing but if you have 50% left to vote for R and 30% for D, there is your answer.
      As for AZ the noose is gradually tightening like NC.

    548. PhilS says:

      Why don’t you go hump Biden, Gator? He misses the contact, he is lonely.

    549. Sheeple,Jr. says:

      Gator Boy
      I went to Elect Project and could not find a Party Breakdown for the Early Vote in Arizona. Please send the link (or are you just making this up!).

    550. PhilS says:

      Pedophile Gator, is pedo Joe aparte that there is an election going on?

      He doesn’t seem to get out much.

    551. Chicon says:

      DW – I’ve heard that, too, and it makes sense. How do we know if that is happening? Voter score on TargetSmart is one way to see if new or infrequent voters are making up a large potion of voters. But they don’t break that number down by party, do they?

    552. Pitchaboy says:

      GatorBoy, per your guru Nate Silverhack, without FL, SloJo’s chances slip to 40%. You better pray all those indies are voting D. I believe without FL both their chances are slim. And, FL is gone for SloJo baby.

    553. wheelz91 says:

      This is supposed to be from Clint Eastwood:

      So, just in case I’m gone tomorrow, please know this: I voted against that incompetent, lying, flip-flopping, insincere, double-talking, radical socialist, terrorist excusing, bleeding heart, narcissistic, scientific and economic moron that spent eight years-in the White House trying to destroy our wonderful country and turn it into Muslim loving, socialist crap hole like he came from and I don’t mean Hawaii!

      ********

      Participating in a gun buy-back program because you think criminals have too many guns is like having yourself castrated because you think your neighbors have too many kids.

      Regards, Clint

    554. hugh says:

      I am surprised that Reps are doing so well today in FL. The weekends for EV are usually huge for dems. Tomorrow will be key. If we can keep up it means souls for the polls is going to be down.

      Even the big money dems are spending on predictit to keep appearances. FL just keeps slipping away. BTW those latino independents in Miami Dade are not going for biden. They hate socialism.

      Big ole. Chump Chump

    555. PhilS says:

      Pedophile Gator, your buddy Pedo Joe and his super-spreader Ho went to AZ to campaign, and nobody showed up.

      Very funny.

    556. hugh says:

      Looks like maybe NC is slipping away as well on Predictit. Maybe the dem suckers have decided using their money to keep up a narrative isnt working. Maybe it would be spent on hookers and booze to get their base out to vote

    557. PhilS says:

      Pedo G,

      Your fat boy Mike Moore already gave up on Michigan. Your Dem mayors in Minnesota endorsed Trump.

      Better wake the child molester Joe up so he can save Delaware.

    558. wheelz91 says:

      Biden in Pennsylvania. Yelling the entire speech.
      Saying “look” before every sentence. He is totally insane.

    559. Chicon says:

      In Florida so far (according to TargetSmart); the 1st time voters are down 4%, the infrequent voters are up 2.5%, the frequent voters are up 1.5%, and the super voter is up a hair. These numbers are not split up by party.

      Age groups are very close to their previous percentages.

      Registered Democrats and Republicans were about even as a percentage of early vote in 2016, yet this year Dems are 44% and the Republicans are 35% So it does look like there are more Republican voters in reserve. Add in that there are lots of new Republicans added to the rolls, and it does seem to look good for the home team in the Sunshine State. Any obvious errors in my logic?

    560. PhilS says:

      Pedo Gator,

      The Child Molester is following in the footsteps of the Loser Hag from 2016.

      Showing in Philly with Bon Jovi? Is this a joke? Is this 2016?

      And what’s with the whole nonsense about fracking? Does Pedo Joe think voters are as stupid as him?

    561. PresidentPaul! says:

      Pelosi is such a reptile politician. I don’t think we’ve ever had congress act so callously in their own interests rather than in favor of small businesses, the people etc.

      The Fed and the treasury are effectively merged, and they’ve been on the phone directly with Pelosi over the last year.

      She knows Mnuchin has over 1.8 trillion in the treasury general fund that was intended to be spent this year, but she has blocked all stimulus negotiations because she wanted to tank the economy as much as possible before the election.

    562. Annie says:

      Just put on the Trump rally in Circleville, OH… Trump has nuns sitting behind him… There were Native-Americans drumming for him in North Carolina today. After Democrat attacks on the Little Sisters of the Poor and Hunter’s associates cheating the Oglala Sioux, it makes sense.

    563. PresidentPaul! says:

      Also R-naught is less than zero only in 4 states I heard (aka covid rising in the other 46)

      There is a chance we are on the European trajectory once winter hits just 4-5 weeks behind where Europe is.

    564. MrVito says:

      Currently Ds have about 180000 more new voters than GOP by registration compared to 2016. By modeling, it is about 90000.

    565. MrVito says:

      *in FL

    566. PresidentPaul! says:

      covid tracking project (.com) has hospitalizations, which can be followed instead of following testing since people object to quantifying positive tests since we may be testing more.

    567. MikeKS says:

      Trump is up in Arizona by 3 points and will win it by 4 or 5.

    568. George says:

      Another huge crowd at Trump’s Ohio’s rally. Trump is totally energized. Nuns sitting in the front row right behind Trump. He is running circles around sleepy, creepy, lying old slow Joe. The Trump Train is rolling full steam ahead! The best is yet to come for the good old US of A! Go Trump!!!

    569. Hugh says:

      I assume you mean there are an additional 180000 that have voted so far. We know what registrations are.

    570. Stonewall DW says:

      FLORIDA – Tyson Group

      Trump 47
      Biden 45

      prior poll was Trump 46 / Biden 48

    571. mnw says:

      594 Stonewall

      Please tell me about Tyson. I’m not familiar,,, are their polls as flavorful as their frozen cluckers?

    572. Sheeple,Jr. says:

      The “Eyes of Texas” are upon the GOP. Republicans are crushing it in early voting.

      https://www.toptradeguru.com/news/elections-2020/results/texas-early-ballot-returns-shows-polls-are-wrong/

    573. Stonewall DW says:

      Peoples_Pundit
      @Peoples_Pundit
      ·
      24m
      I hate EV tea leaves, as you all know. Moreover, I hate the media fav pundits inability to do so.

      That being said, our polling in Florida has been remarkably consistent on who was going to turn out when, and that is playing out as expected.

      Thus, steady evaporation of D lead.

    574. mnw says:

      By coinkydink, Sheep’s 595 link references Tyson polls. Caputo speaks very highly of Ryan Tyson’s polls, fwiw.

    575. jason says:

      White liberal women telling blacks what they are…

      Chelsea Handler: I Had to Remind 50 Cent He’s Black, So He Can’t Vote for Trump”

    576. jason says:

      Trump at 48% at Predicitit now in AZ.

      As soon as it flips, the betting market will get pretty nervous, it will put Trump at 259 EVs.

    577. mnw says:

      601

      Yes… if I told another white male to “vote like a white man!”… I’d be on death row.

    578. BRENT says:

      Cotto/Gottfried
      @CottoGottfried
      ·
      5m
      In Florida, with in-person early voting, GOPers are now up to a 226,994 lead, despite this being the hour at which Dems typically do better — however marginally — with EV.

    579. Justin says:

      There was also some bad weather most of the day in the Panhandle that likely kept some people in today. Florida is looking promising.

      Still worried about Arizona. Hopefully that worry is unfounded.

    580. Stonewall DW says:

      Looking again at FL recent polls:

      47/45 Trump +2 – Tyson Group, who previously had Biden up 2
      47/49 Biden +2 – St. Pete Poll, typical media poll. Just two years ago their final poll had Gillum over Desantis 50/45. Nuff said.
      50/46 Trump +4 – Rasmussen
      47/51 Biden +4 – Civiqs/Daily Kos. Nuff said
      45/50 Biden +5 – Change Research (D), a panel, not poll
      46/48 Biden +2 – CNN/SSRS, who had Gillum winning 49/48 two years ago, and four years ago CNN used a different pollster, so no comparison.
      46/50 Biden +4 – IPSOS. Four years ago had it 42/38 for Hillary. Just two years ago they had Gillum winning 50/44.
      45/52 Biden +6 – Morning Consult, a panel not a poll
      47/48 Biden +1 – Univ of North Florida. 2 years ago had Gillum winning 49/43.
      48/48 Tied – HarrisX. Two years ago had Gilllum winning 49/46.
      48/46 Trump +2 – Trafalgar Group. Was CORRECT on Desantis two years ago, and TRUMP four years ago.
      48/51 Biden +3 – Emerson College, who had Gillum winning 51/46. HIllary by 1 four years ago.
      45/48 Biden +3 – MasonDixon who had Hillary by 4 and Gillum by 1.
      46/43 Trump +3 – Insider Advantage, no 2018 or 2016 poll.

      So its obvious if you ignore the panels that are not polls, and then go by the track record of the pollsters, Trump wins FLORIDA

    581. Phil says:

      What’s the deal with Joe screaming his entire speech in Pa this morning.

      Why was he so pissed? Really looked unhappy. Not exactly an uplifting speech. He was mad as hell.

    582. Hugh says:

      Lots of movement on predictit today. George sorta needs to step in quickly before it competent falls apart. Chump Chump!!

    583. Gordon Allen says:

      Trump was always going to win Florida. If by 2 points or more, certainly 3, he’ll win the election. Period

    584. Hugh says:

      George soros

    585. Chicon says:

      Phil – maybe the speech was during the time he usually sits down for a good #2. Messing with that can get a guy cranky.

    586. JeffP says:

      Trump is very confident and having fun at the rallies today. Those nuns on the first row with MAGA masks are hilarious.

    587. Annie says:

      Biden pacing back and forth as Jill gave a speech today looked like Joey had to go tinkle, but his mommy wouldn’t stop talking.

    588. Boog says:

      Biden campaign is really just trying to keep it together at this point. If not for the MSM, it would be in free fall.

      Who looks like they are having fun at this point? Trump dancing, joking around and riffing in front of crowds of 30,000 people, several times a day.

      Biden angrily yelling at non-existent crowds, in front of a few parked cars, and calling people “chumps”.

      Remember to take some time to sit back, take in the view and enjoy this. If the wheels really come off the Biden bus, this could get a lot more fun.

    589. Annie says:

      I watched a portion of a video over on Revolver today that hurt my head…very graphic.

    590. Hugh says:

      607. Win or lose hunters going to jail. The dems with the help of the fbi may be able to dodge the corruption charges if joe wins but not the pedophile charges for hunter. Hunter is done. Joe knows it. His wife Jill must have ice water in her veins.

    591. Pitchaboy says:

      GatorBoy: Overheard Fat Lady on A minor.

    592. Tina says:

      Wow, I don’t know what language Biden is speaking here:

      https://twitter.com/abigailmarone/status/1320110985034739712

    593. Smack says:

      All Early Voting – Florida

      Oct 23rd / 7:00pm

      DEM: 2,262,395 43.43%

      GOP: 1,874,060 35.97%

      Oct 24th / 5:32pm

      DEM: 2,418,608 42.85%

      GOP: 2,053,688 36.39%

    594. JeffP says:

      Maybe Joe is mad because GOP Sen candidate Laura Witzke is outing Hunter regarding Chris Coons daughter (Joe sniffing girl) being on the laptop? Huge claim to make unless you KNOW it is true. Laura seems pretty together I think.

    595. JeffP says:

      OR Sleepy Joes internals are cratering. Maybe both.

      I am pretty confident on FL now. Trump talking Trafalgar is great.

    596. Annie says:

      624. The sick video I watched on Revolver is Hunter in a compromising situation. The warning message is no joke.

    597. John says:

      Did I just hear the president say that the DNC is pulling out of Ohio now and will pull out of Florida very soon…..

    598. JeffP says:

      627 John I only heard Ohio. But yep.

    599. Hugh says:

      Tough day for joe. He’s toast. His son will soon be in jail and he will end up being the worst candidate in history.

      Chump chump.

    600. mnw says:

      John & JeffP

      Can you cite that, or give us more detail? Big deal, if confirmed.

      I Googled “Trump says DNC pulling out of Ohio” & couldn’t find it.

      Thx.

    601. mnw says:

      629 wheel91

      dead link

    602. wheelz91 says:

      re 629 it seems to work for me..

      Kayleigh McEnany
      @kayleighmcenany
      ·
      1h
      ?? BIDEN ADMITS TO VOTER FRAUD! ??

      @JoeBiden
      brags about having the “most extensive VOTER FRAUD organization” in history??

    603. Smack says:

      I just saw the Hunter Biden video and had to turn it off. He was talking about making millions of dollars during the video…it’s pretty bad.

      We are starting to see that all the bad stuff which was rumored in the laptop is becoming true.

      If Joe Biden received any of the money from all of this..if there is evidence…Joe Biden will need a pardon from Trump.

    604. JeffP says:

      631 mow he refers to it at the end of that little presser he did in Ohio.

    605. jason says:

      Is there a link to the Hunter Biden video?

    606. Jeff G. says:

      mnw, the story linked to in 622 has Trump saying it.

    607. lisab says:

      Is there a link to the Hunter Biden video?
      ————

      not if there is a god

    608. Annie says:

      jason…It’s on revolver.news
      Like Smack, I couldn’t watch much of it, skipped through it…saw the Hunter lighting up the crack pipe portion. It’s quite pornographic, so don’t let kids anywhere near it. The video does demonstrate just how very compromised Joe Biden would be as POTUS.

    609. JeffP says:

      That video was released by some TV station in China? Is that legit? That would be like really bad.

    610. JeffP says:

      Laptop from hell. I have a feeling it might just keep on giving for the next 10 days. Rudy had only looked at about 30% of it.

    611. mnw says:

      622 Jeff P

      Thx. Trafalgar must’ve had an involuntary orgasm the way POTUS was praising their accuracy.

      As for DNC pulling out of OH, Trump was a bit sketchy on the details. But he sure sounded as if he genuinely liked the EV info he’s seeing in FL & NC, though.

    612. JeffP says:

      Obamathecon and his alias’ have been slowing down the last 24 hours…that is typical if Trump news is good. And it is good!

    613. JeffP says:

      643 mnw…he is looking super confident regarding the numbers his campaign is seeing that is for sure. Much like we are…LOL!

    614. Tina says:

      Be careful posting the smut.

      Revengeporn.

      Stay on the grifting

    615. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      I didn’t think you all could get more desperate, but you all keep proving me wrong.

    616. PhilS says:

      You need to to go hump Biden, he is literally screaming.

    617. PhilS says:

      Pedo Gator, don’t leave Pedo Joe hanging like this.

      And where’s Hunter? Humpin’ with Biden?

    618. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      Meanwhile, back in reality…

      National GE:
      Biden 49% (+10)
      Trump 39%
      Jorgensen 2%
      Hawkins 1%
      West 1%

      @Reuters/@Ipsos

      WISCONSIN
      Biden 55% (+12)
      Trump 43%
      .
      MICHIGAN
      Biden 53% (+9)
      Trump 44%
      .
      ARIZONA
      Biden 53% (+7)
      Trump 46%
      .
      PENNSYLVANIA
      Biden 52% (+6)
      Trump 46%
      .
      NORTH CAROLINA
      Biden 52% (+6)
      Trump 46%
      .
      GEORGIA
      Biden 50% (+1)
      Trump 49%

      chomp chomp

    619. PhilS says:

      Meanwhile, Pedophile Joe is your basement. Humpin’ you.

    620. PhilS says:

      Or rather, Pedohile Joe is shouting in an empty parking lot.

    621. Annie says:

      648. Gator, I didn’t think you could shove your head any further up your backside (guess you like being kept in the dark), but you keep proving me wrong.

    622. MikeKS says:

      gatorbillyjoel,

      I can tell you right now that Democrats think they are losing. Florida is lost, Arizona is close to lost, Michigan is slipping away.

      Still 9 days to go but those polls are ridiculous.

    623. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      National GE:
      Biden 52% (+6)
      Trump 46%
      Axios

      Trump Job Approval:
      Approve 44%
      Disapprove 55%
      EchelonInsights

      National GE:
      Biden 50% (+6)
      Trump 44%
      Jorgensen 1%
      Hawkins 1%
      West 0%

      Trump Job Approval

      Approve 42%
      Disapprove 55%

      .
      Head-2-Head:
      Biden 51% (+7)
      Trump 44%

      National GE:
      Biden 53% (+11)
      Trump 42%
      .
      Generic Congressional Ballot:
      Democrats 52% (+7)
      Republicans 45%
      USCDornsife

    624. PhilS says:

      You are just recycling polls from 2016,. pedophile gator.

      Get new material, moron. Soros expects better.

    625. Pitchaboy says:

      FL gone. NC slipping away. AZ getting choked next. Slow death, GatorBoy. The icing on the cake will be NV. SloJo was in the neighborhood and sounded desperate.

    626. mnw says:

      651

      GBJ left off MO this time! He recently posted that Biden was “within 1 or 2 percent” of Trump in MO…. without citing a poll.

      Wonder why the omission of my homestate? Almost as if he didn’t believe it for a second, even as he was posting it, isn’t it?

      I’ve repeatedly offered GBJ a bet that Trump will carry MO by 12 points or more, but… crickets.

      Hugh & Wes have a bet. So, why won’t GBJ step up & make some EASY $$$ for his favorite charity? If Biden is only behind by “1-2% in MO,” why won’t he accept my offer of a wager that Trump carries MO by 12+ points?

      Waiting… crickets… waiting

    627. Bitterlaw says:

      IP 727 is really fired up tonight.

    628. mnw says:

      BL

      What us “IP 727,” pls?

    629. Tina says:

      Jenn Pellegrino OAN ??
      @JennPellegrino
      · 1h
      #NEW: President Trump adds a third Pennsylvania rally to his schedule for Monday, October 26.
      11 am: Allentown, PA
      1:30 pm: Lititz, PA
      4:30 pm: Martinsburg, PA

    630. Pitchaboy says:

      Gator’s bros are going bonkers on Predictit. Claim R bettors are distorting the market.

    631. Tina says:

      Chuck Ross
      @ChuckRossDC
      · 37m
      NEW: “Don’t want to have to register as foreign agents.”

      Hunter Biden Proposed Setting Up US Firm To Avoid Foreign Agent Registration For Chinese Business Venture https://dailycaller.com/2020/10/24/hunter-biden-bobulinski-fara-china/…
      Show this thread

    632. mnw says:

      662 Tina

      The man is a year older than me, but he has 247x the energy! How does he DO it? Must be the teetotaling, I guess. He’s the 8th Wonder of the World, that’s for sure

      He’s done everything in PA except going door-to-door… which wouldn’t be a bad publicity gig, come to think of it.

    633. PhilS says:

      “The man is a year older than me, but he has 247x the energy! How does he DO it? ”

      Big Mac and fries.

    634. OHIO Joe says:

      GOP going back and forth between 37 and 38 cent on the dollar is Wisconsin. And shhhh up to 16 cent and climbing in New Mexico. Look for positive movement in that state.

    635. Pitchaboy says:

      NY Crimes claimed there is a surge of 1 million new D voters this cycle. Where are they? Did the gators eat them?
      Chomp, chomp.

    636. Pitchaboy says:

      1 million just in FL. Damn swamp creatures.

    637. Gordon Allen says:

      That idiot troll will still be posting Biden polls on November 3 at 10:30 pm when Trump has won 320 Electoral Votes,or until his checks from the Biden campaign stop clearing. At which point we’ll never hear from him again. Darn
      You get the feeling Biden knows the jig is about up.

    638. lisab says:

      “I didn’t think you could shove your head any further up your backside (guess you like being kept in the dark”
      =========================

      isn’t that what hunter biden was doing in the video? 🙂

    639. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      About to drop some facts on you. These will ruin your night, but facts don’t care about your feelings…

      These 2012/not 2016 voters are turning out in large numbers in key swing states:
      FL – 177,185 D +9.6
      GA – 101,904 D +10.7
      IA – 25,813 D +11.2
      MI – 91,311 D +8.5
      MN – 40,069 D +16.8
      NC – 93,915 D +14.5
      PA – 60,297 D +28.5

      Voters under the age of 30 now account for a larger share of the electorate than they did at this point in ’16. And that’s while older voters are surging on their own.

      It’s not just a youth surge though, the younger voters who are fueling this massive turnout increase are more likely to be Dems. At this point Dems have a lead of almost 30 pts in modeled partisanship, up from 21 pts at this point in 2016.

      https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1320043090263085057?s=20

      295,973 votes have been cast by voters in Wisconsin who didn’t vote in the ’16 general election. They account for 27% of all early votes cast. Democrats have a modeled party ID lead of 17% with these surge voters, as compared to a lead of only 1% with those who did vote in ’16

      In Arizona, 372,163 non-2016 voters have already cast a ballot. Dems have a 13% party registration advantage among these voters, as compared to 8% with those early voters who did vote in ’16.

    640. PhilS says:

      Pedo Joe needs you, gator. He is angry.

    641. Phil says:

      Utter BS, basement boy..

      Your guy seemed in a rather foul mood today. Screaming during his speech today. Really angry.

      Wonder why he’s so agitated all of a sudden.

      Bet I know. LOL

    642. mnw says:

      But what about “MO within 1-2 points!”, GBJ?

      Waiting… crickets..

    643. PhilS says:

      Joe was shouting during the debate too. If you are inclined, watch the second half.

      I remember saying to myself, “Any minute he’s going to shout Get off my lawn!”

    644. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      The numbers cited in 672 come DIRECTLY from the ceo of Target Smart that designed the model. He also says that Biden is doing well in Texas. If you’re going to refer to the model when you think it has good information, but ignore the facts that come from the person that created it, you’re just whistling past the grave yard.

    645. Phil says:

      Btw, Biden still running neck and neck in Missouri? Still tied in Texas? How are those Quinnipiac double digit leads holding up in Florida, Pa and that 7 pt lead in Georgia.

      Asking for a friend.

    646. mnw says:

      GBJ

      MO?

      Lost your guts?

    647. Tina says:

      Trump,claims 45000 in Wisconsin.

    648. Tina says:

      (Waukesha, Wisconsin Rally.)

      A few moments into speech.
      Says we will win Wisconsin by a bigger margin than 206.

    649. PhilS says:

      Hunter needs you, pedo gator.

    650. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1319471034702139394?s=20

      Regarding Texas. Read it (if you can pry yourself away from Chinese porn videos) and you may learn something. Although with this crew, probably not.

      https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1319471034702139394?s=20

    651. Phil says:

      The CEO of TargetSmart is a leftist hack.

      Doing well in Texas?

      Maybe in Austin. LOL.

      He’s getting skunked here.

      What a lousy troll.

    652. Pitchaboy says:

      GatorBoy: Silverhack probably buying Trump on Predictit. All those numbers don’t seem to matter.

    653. PhilS says:

      Pedo Gator,

      They are lying to you. Just like 2016.

      Go hump Joe, he is crying for you.

    654. Pitchaboy says:

      TX long gone GatorBoy. 7 to 10% whipping for Basement Boy.

    655. Phil says:

      I know my state, basement boy.

      You lost all of us at Biden +1 in Missouri.

    656. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      Disprove the facts he provided. I’ll wait.

      Several of you seem hysterical and on the verge of tears. Guess a President Biden and Democrat house and Senate has sent you all over the edge.

    657. mnw says:

      GBJ

      MO?

      waiting… waiting… waiting!… for DAYS now!

      So… it was bullzh*t from the gitgo, then? You’re ashamed to acknowledge what you posted?

    658. PhilS says:

      Don’t wait, pedophile. Go molest Joe.

    659. Phil says:

      Biden cancelled his five million dollar ad buy here in Texas, btw.

      Doesn’t seem to jive with your genius CEO’s numbers.

    660. Phil says:

      Disprove your numbers? I just did. Neither candidate is spending a dime here.

    661. Hugh says:

      Targetsmart guy wantS to stay popular with dems. Has to change his model. Who wants to be doxed and have their cars keyed. I get it. With high dem vote by mail compared to 2016 the dem favorable demographics better be way ahead of where they were in 2016 At this point or they are doomed. I’ve seen the same stupid narrative everywhere. Dems are getting ready to take the greatest beat down from expectations since Truman beat Dewey. Youth vote will be down in the end as a percentage compared to 2016. They better be way up now to even get close.

    662. Phil says:

      I’m sorry. I meant Trump +1 in Mo. I want to get this right. Joe must be killing it in the rural areas of Mo. this cycle. Makes perfect sense.

    663. Pitchaboy says:

      GatorBoy, he means to go to PA. Landing in GA by mistake.

    664. Phil says:

      Oh, Basement boy has now moved on from Texas.

    665. PhilS says:

      Pedophile Jode is out looking for 12 year olds to molest.

    666. Hugh says:

      Wow dems just drip drip drip on predictit for winning states. Even with all their billionaire money the narrative is falling apart. NC and FL Getting worse and worse. I notice az is starting to move. Nothing moving the dems way. To bad out trolls won’t be here election night.

      By the way joe wandering around behind his wife like he lost his keys is hilarious. Could you see that fool negotiating with any one??

    667. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      Can’t say I should be surprised that you all are denying the facts laid out by the Target Smart CEO since you all are the party of science deniers and have spent the better part of the year ignoring doctors.

    668. PhilS says:

      Anyone have any idea why pedo Joe goes anywhere?

      It’s not like anybody shows up, except Trump supporters.

      Will Gov Abrams Tank campaign with the child molester?

    669. PhilS says:

      Where did you grow up, Pedophile Gator?

      Your English is terrible. Seems like you grew up on c-grade porn.

    670. Phil says:

      TargetSmart CEO?

      We consider the source.

      He’s a hack.

    671. Pitchaboy says:

      Rumor is Slojo going to GA to put a lid on his campaign.

    672. mnw says:

      GBJ is a COWARD, plain & simple. He won’t respond to my posts about MO, or other posts about TX.

      Prove you’re not a li’l simpering COWARD, GBJ? Acknowledge my posts about MO, & the wager I offered you?

      Thought not

      C-O-W-A-R-D.

    673. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      Then don’t use his data to talk about how you think Texas is looking. Who knows more about the data, some idiot behind a computer OR their CEO Hmmmmmm

    674. Hugh says:

      So we are now to believe Bloomberg for analysis while the boss is spending 100m of his own money in Florida? Yes they are unbiased. Gator you must be miserable as your fantasy world is slowly going south. Florida gone. Nc almost gone. In a week az will be gone. Then we will see how your progressive owned and newly rigged targetsmart does in the upper Midwest. Trump gets 10s of thousands to see him Biden gets 10s then wanders around like he is looking for
      His imaginary friend wile his wife tries to talk over the Trump fans. And now poor hunter will soon be a pedophile in jail. Yet he made millions off his corrupt senile dad. How sweet it will be. Chump Chump

    675. PhilS says:

      Then shut up.

      Your flop-sweat is not a good look.

    676. mnw says:

      GBJ

      MO? Wager? 12+ point win?

      waiting…

      C-O-W-A-R-D

      Chickenzh*t.

    677. Pitchaboy says:

      Some idiot definitely knows more. . Because that blooming CEO idiot sent you here.

    678. Bitterlaw says:

      mnw- IP 727 was a poster who was very much like PhilS. Made crude and racist posts and often made gay references as insults. He posts under that handle at BeJohnGalt.com. During the riots, he referred to blacks as monkeys. He used to call liberals rump riders. He is probably back as PhilS.

    679. mnw says:

      BL

      Thanks.

      I regret some of the things I said in the old days, btw. I felt I was under savage attack.

    680. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      713 that’s sad. I just assumed Biden’s upcoming victory sent him over the edge on here. Hopefully he will seek the help he so clearly needs.

    681. PhilS says:

      Bitter,

      You are as stupid as Pedo Gator. Get a clue, idiot.

      Do you have anything better to do in life than try to guess internet handles?

    682. Phil says:

      I’ll tell you who knows about the data. The campaigns. You know, the campaigns that do extensive internal polling to decide how to allocate their campaign resources…..and I just told you. Biden is not spending a dime here. Maybe you can arrange to have TargetSmart CEO hook up in a conference call with Biden’s pollsters so they can get the benefit of Genius CEO’s marvelous data. Given Biden isn’t spending anything in Texas I’d say they aren’t really that high on your boy’s numbers.

      I can’t believe I just wasted my time on some troll who is trying to tell us Biden is on the cusp In Texas.

      Hell, Nate Silver isn’t even trying to sell that one.

    683. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      717 – sane Phil, so what does Rump going to Ohio (which he won by almost ten say? What does the trip last week to Georgia by Rump and next week by Biden say?

    684. PhilS says:

      It says, putting the nail in the coffin, Pedo G.

      It says he is smarter than Pedo Joe and Hillary .

      While the child molester is sniffing 12 year old girls, Trump is out campaigning.

      You and Bitterlaw deserve each other.

    685. Phil says:

      Simple. It says Biden has nailed down Texas and is zeroing in on Georgia. LOL.

      Needs to spend more time in Mo. though. It’s a nail biter there.

    686. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      Why does he need to zero in on Georgia a week before the election? Doesn’t bode well for Rump…

    687. mnw says:

      720 Phil

      KS & AR not far behind either! Blue wave a’rollin’!

    688. PhilS says:

      Because he is stupid. has been all his life, Just like you.

    689. mnw says:

      721 GBJ

      MO? Coward? Chickenzh*t? Cat got your tongue… fool?

      Afraid to respond, are u?

      Wager offer: Trump by 12 in MO? Where ARE u, troll?

    690. Phil says:

      Yeah, and don’t forget SC. I mean, it’s right next to Georgia so that must be in Biden’s sights as well

    691. DW says:

      All Biden has going for him is the media & university polling, the fraud machine for which Biden is proud, and the commie media coverage

    692. MikeKS says:

      Georgia is dicey for Trump and Biden is going there to offset Michigan. Kind of late play. Pennsylvania is obviously critical for Biden but Trump only needs it if he loses Michigan.

    693. DW says:

      GA is not in play.

    694. Phil says:

      So did Biden really publicly brag about his “fraud organization”?

      That isn’t what he said is it?

    695. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      You all pushing a foot fetish video now? Unhinged.

    696. DW says:

      Yes he said it … click link above

    697. PhilS says:

      You like the child porn video, pedo Gator?

    698. Bitterlaw says:

      Why change your handle, PhilS? You already admitted you were here in 2015 under a different name.

    699. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      733 – maybe he couldn’t remember his old name when he got out of the looney bin

    700. Phil says:

      Wow.

      First honest thing Biden has said the entire campaign. Lol

    701. Bitterlaw says:

      mnw – HHR was a wild place years ago. It is pretty tame now. Back then, we had real Democrats posting and not trolls.

    702. MikeP says:

      I believe the President is going to places like GA to assist down ticket candidates. We have two senate races in GA Purdue and special Election with Loffler(sp). And is a good time to continue get more rep. Representatives.
      Wouldn’t life be better without Nancy

    703. MrVito says:

      MrVito says:
      October 24, 2020 at 5:34 pm
      Currently Ds have about 180000 more new voters than GOP by registration compared to 2016. By modeling, it is about 90000.

      …..

      Already discussed. The Modeled Gap of all voters that is getting more GOP daily is 5.3%, meaning less than 3% of the gap in new voters is even meaningful. That 32000 votes is smaller than the gap Dems should have from first time youth voters that are now old enough to vote.

    704. Tina says:

      The Ohio and Wisconsin rallies make sense for a lot of reasons.

      One of the reasons is today was the “Start” of the big 10.

      Trump mentioned it at both rallies.

    705. Tina says:

      The Wi rally must be the largest to date.
      45,000.

    706. Tina says:

      So true.

      China was so angry and dark.

      Steve Cortes
      @CortesSteve
      ·
      37m
      The race shapes up as:

      Morning in America
      vs
      “Dark Winter”

      Joe Biden is an insipid combination of Nurse Ratched and the Grim Reaper.

    707. Scooterboy says:

      Trump received 2,089,104 votes in Georgia in 2016.

      The Republicans have already banked 1,124,116 early votes in Georgia.

    708. PhilS says:

      Trump is slacking off. Just one rally tomorrow.

    709. Ridin' with Biden says:

      Jeepers! So much talk about Missouri?

      If MIssouri is such a hot topic, that is wonderful news for Mr. Biden.

      Early voting continues to look simply mahvelous!

      Mr. Biden now heading to Georgia to run up the score. Splendid!

    710. MrVito says:

      The President is going to GA because there are 10 states worth 10+ votes and he’s doing 3-5 rallies per day…. so…. he’s gonna have to hit them all if he wants to keep getting crowds of 30000 every time.

    711. PhilS says:

      Mr Biden is waiting for you to hump him. Get to it.

    712. Tina says:

      Souter 2.0.

      Emerald Robinson ??
      @EmeraldRobinson
      ·
      10h
      Next week, Judge Amy Coney Barrett should be confirmed to the Supreme Court which means we are living through the last few days of Chief Justice John Roberts’ relevance as an incoherent swing vote for liberalism.

    713. Tina says:

      Yikes

      Arthur Schwartz
      @ArthurSchwartz
      ·
      1h
      “A day after sending the message, Hunter Biden set up a meeting with his father, Joe Biden, and Bobulinski in Los Angeles.”

      Hunter Biden Sought To Avoid Registering As Foreign Agent In Chinese Business Venture, Text Message Shows

    714. PhilS says:

      What with the pedophile Joe do in Georgia?

      Shout at cars in deserted parking lot?

      It’s not like he is interested in votes. Seems like he likes car hoods.

    715. Annie says:

      Tina…The “day after tomorrow” sounds better (sooner) than “next week.”

    716. MrVito says:

      Dems have an edge in GA in new voters over 2016 of 10000.

      Apparently that’s why Bonier went to the voodoo analysis of voted in 2012 but 2016.

    717. Scooterboy says:

      Robert Barnes- “ FYI: apparently @MSNBC circulated a fake chart showing youth vote up five-fold over 2016 early vote. First, their numbers are completely false about the youth vote amongst early voting in 2016. Second, the youth share of the vote is DOWN, not up, compared to polling predictions

    718. Annie says:

      New thread is up…

    719. Ridin' with Biden says:

      I do find it is best to ignore Phyllis. She needs to remember to take her medication.

      I’m looking forward to a wonderful 10 days to come. So excited for Mr. Biden and our Democratic friends.