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    Battleground Gallup Polls

    CNN, USA Today and Gallup have released new polls from Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida. Among likely voters, Bush has varying leads in all three.

    OHIO
    Bush 50%
    Kerry 48%

    Bush 49%
    Kerry 47%
    Nader 1%

    PENNSYLVANIA
    Bush 50%
    Kerry 47%

    Bush 49%
    Kerry 46%
    Nader 1%

    FLORIDA
    Bush 53%
    Kerry 43%

    Bush 52%
    Kerry 43%
    Nader 1%

    The results from Ohio are a little surprising and closer than expected, but a lead in pennsylvania and a huge lead in Florida are welcome turn of events. Florida was done September 24-27. PA and OH were done September 25-28.

    Posted by Dave at 9:10 pm
    Filed under: Election 2004 Polls - 09/04 | Comments (75)

    75 Responses to “Battleground Gallup Polls”

    1. MikeKS says:

      Given how much Bush has been in FL, that # is not surprising. PA is about where I think it is–dead heat. Ohio is the weird one as we were all discussing…especially given Gallup’s last poll and the SV poll yesterday. If the other two are accurate, Ohio’s # is just off, in my estimation.

    2. Phil says:

      Let me get this straight. Compared to 2000, Bush is running 10 ahead of his Fla result, 8 ahead of his Pa number, and yet he’s running BEHIND his 2000 Ohio number?

      Sure.

    3. SI Conservative says:

      Too many people are without power in FL to take a credible poll. It’ll be interesting to see if people blame the President when they go without power for a few weeks.

    4. Jeremy says:

      Big bold headline in USA Today:

      “PRESIDENT SEEKS MORE THAN $7B IN FEDERAL AID”

      Bush is going to make sure all he’s accused of is lavishing money on the Sunshine state.

    5. kim says:

      Dave-
      Why are you posting the results that are least favorable to Kerry and not from the same questions? One includes Nader, the other does not. The numbers should be
      Kerry-47 LV
      Bush-49 LV
      Nader-1 LV

      and
      Kerry-49 RV
      Bush-45 RV
      Nader-3 RV

      OR
      without Nader

      Kerry-48 LV
      Bush- 50 LV

      and

      Kerry-50 RV
      Bush- 46 RV

      I know this is your site, but that doesn’t seem fair. Unless there is a logical reason that I am missing.

    6. Michael DeFlavia says:

      Kim,

      Are you whining hear also?

    7. Big Jake says:

      New L.A. Times poll out has Bush up by 51-46 among likely voters and 49-45 among registered voters. I’m usually a little skeptical about L.A. Times polls but this one seems a little more reasonable.

      http://www.latimes.com/services/site/premium/access-registered.intercept

    8. Will says:

      The margin of error swings both ways. It could be 53/45, B/K in Ohio.

    9. Kwame says:

      Agreed, Big Jake.

      Michael, how about being civil with Kim, ok?

    10. Ralph says:

      To SI conservative

      Here in Memphis we had hurricane Elvis last year. When the wind blew last July 100,000+ memphians were out of power form one to fourteen days. We are out 9 days. Believe it or not people with-out Power for more then one or two days tend to vote republican. The Democratic areas are far more likely to keep their power and get it back on sooner. If Bush is polling this well with people who have power you can add a percent or two to that number for an even bigger Bush lead.

    11. Michael DeFlavia says:

      Kwame,

      I’ll try but it won’t be easy. She does whine and tends to not have any back up to her points. It is one long whine. Give me something!

    12. Will says:

      I bet the gallup RV results are a typo. Has anyone tried to confirm them?

    13. bob says:

      Ohio trending Bush but Kerry making move
      PA trending Kerry but Bush making a move

      Do they make sense?

      Just wait and see…My guess is both are a little outlierish

      Fla..who knows with what those poor folks have been thru

    14. Michael DeFlavia says:

      I checked those numbers. Something isn’t right. I think there probably are typos one way or another. The LV’s and RV’s usually don’t deviate by such large amounts.

    15. kim says:

      #12 Are you serious??? You see results you don’t like and there must be a typo?!!! AAAAHHH! Seriously, Bush has one bad day, and you boys go on the attack. I’m betting that the several reports on CNN regarding these polls and the oddity of the RV/LV #s must have been a “Talk-o”. Is that funny enough for you Michael?

    16. Kwame says:

      You guys are beyond comical: the Gallup numbers show Kerry up nicely among RVs in PA and OH, and down by 5 among RVs in Florida. You take the questionable Gallup LVs, and run like these states are home free.

      Think logically for a second about how screwed up Gallup is. In his latest national poll, Bush runs substantially WORSE (5 points) among LVs than RVs. Yet, in these three states, he runs BETTER (by about 5-6 points) among LVs than RVs.

      Doesn’t that tell you that, frankly, Gallup is seriously flawed…

      You all should read, by the way, Scott Rasmussen on why LV totals are irrelevant at this stage of the campaign.

    17. HeavyM says:

      *sigh*

      Likely voters is the most reported, most analyzed, and most used top line of any poll. Haven’t we been over this timw and time again? Any candidate will tell you they would rather have the lead in a LV poll than a RV poll anyday.

      Since more Republicans (typically) are likely to vote than Democrats, the RV numbers to me represent the “worst case” scenario for Bush. That’s what will happen if every single person who is registered to vote turns out on election day. And we all know what the likelihood of that is.

      That being said, Ohio is still too close for my comfort. We need to bring it back home now, or find out this poll was just an outlier.

      In other news, that LA Times poll slides very nicely into the total barrage of respected pollsters reporting around a 6 point lead for Bush right now. I’m very happy about that! Time for kwame, kim, alex, joe schmoe, and our other resident libs who keep us on our toes to explain to all of us why we now shouldn’t trust the LA Times (wait– weren’t the libs trumpeting this poll back when it had Kerry up by like 10???).

    18. MikeKS says:

      PA is really not out of whack. its been anywhere from +3 Bush to +3 Kerry lately, so it being pro Bush on LV and pro Kerry on RV is not a shock.

      FL makes perfect sense in light of other polls (Quinnipiac, etc) and Bush’s visits there, and commitment of money.

      OH is the true outlier. I mean, we’re still head in LV, but i do’nt think its that close.

    19. Kwame says:

      Michael,

      Kim makes more sense than 95% of the peope on this board –including me. And especially you. 🙂

    20. MikeKS says:

      By the way, everything will change after the debate tomorrow. That will totally reframe the race, either way. Eitehr a dead heat or bush starts to pull away and solidify his lead.

      I know there are two debates next week (VP and presidential) but if by early next week we see Bush solifidying or growing his lead, it will be panic time in Camp Kerry.

      then again if it shows it narrowing, I’ll be worried just the same.

    21. Michael DeFlavia says:

      Kim,

      Ok, please read carefully now. What we are saying is that the errors (if there are any) could have negatively affected the Dems or Reps. We won’t know unless Gallup makes changes.

      All we are saying ( I am trying to go slow here) is that there is seldom such a large divergence in the RV’s versus LV’s. BTW – these results aren’t bad for Bush regardless.

      Kim – deep breaths, deep breaths, relax! Have a cream soda.

    22. Larry Te Paske says:

      Bill Clinton was down in the polls early in his first term until we had the floods in the mid-west. He came out here and acted like he felt our pain and his poll numbers recovered. President Bush will do equally as well in Florida.

    23. Tim V says:

      Is that an APPARENT 10 point lead in FL ?

    24. Will says:

      Kim,

      Its an honest question. Other polls have Bush leading by greater margins with RV’s than LV’s. So, it is possible that the results are being reported incorrectly.

    25. Jeremy says:

      Kwame,

      Kim makes an emotional connection with you on here, lol.

      And emotional is the right way to describe her ;).

      Keep posting though, Kim.

    26. Will says:

      ….or they could be accurate.

    27. MikeKS says:

      It’s frustrating a bit, alst week I thought we had OH locked up and FL was going to seal the deal and now its the other way around! Argh. These two states are the KEYS to a Bush lock on the EC. Places like PA, NJ, MN, are just gravy.

      But, WI-IA-NH, WI-IA-ME2 or WI-IA-NM or WI-IA-MN trifecta prevents a loss in Ohio from hurting us. That’s why WI and IA are so critical to Bush.

    28. greg says:

      Kwame, the only reason that you think that kim makes more sense than you do is that you want to be as left wing as she is but you have too much sense.

    29. greg says:

      As I stated in the last thread, state polls are too subject to drastic change for no reason. Also, state polls seem to vary by much larger margins when moving from one polling outfit to another. I think that national polls need to be looked at as a whole – i.e. averaging them. I think that state polls need to both be looked at as a whole and then just as ballpark figures.

    30. Go Duke!!! (formerly Tina G.) says:

      Has anybody seen the smart Tina? CA has been shaking.

    31. Michael DeFlavia says:

      Kwame,

      Hey, you two crazy kids should get together. I have never shied away from giving an opinion and backing it up. Furthermore, I try to analyze what I think is going to happen in a way that is not clouded by my political affiliation. This is why I have been steadfast on this board in stating (for months now BTW) that Kerry would take PA, MI and could possibly win CO. I have also stated for months now that the Dems were vulunerable in IA, WI and MN because of the values issues that the R’s are able to leverage. I have also stated that NM is trending dem but as long as the Dems make no inroads in the south then they will remain the minority party for the forseeable future.

      What does not make sense? Kim is a very aggitated liberal who has no consistent political doctrine. She responds solely from a place of anger. That is why it is so easy to get her riled up. There are no core beliefs. She has a hissy fit when Dave posts polls that are really not even all that positive for Bush. Listen Dave is a conservative. He did not promise Kim or anyone else that he would have journalistic objectivity like CBS! LOl!

      Anyway, if you can’t stand the heat, go back to the kitchen! Just kidding!

    32. Jeremy says:

      LOL Michael…So not PC

    33. kim says:

      Earlier, I discussed why, in my own very unscientific opinion, the LV/RV #’s do not seem to fall into the usual pattern. Here in Ohio, there has been a large push to register voters by both the Dems and the Reps. However, registration has increases in democratic areas from the same time in 2000 by 250%, while only 25% in more conservative areas. (and yes, these are valid registrations that have actually made it through local BOE’s) I believe that pollsters use whether a person voted in the last election to calculate LV #’s. If a newly registered person did not vote in the last election, they will not be included as a LV, but they will remain in the RV #. All of the hundreds of thousands of people that dems have registered will not count as LVs. But they will be a RV only. So, tell me what you think…like I had to ask

    34. Scotsmac says:

      MikeS your wrong… MN, IA, WI trifecta is a LOCK on the presidency. That is why they are more than important. That along with what the election results do to the politics in the state are another reason they are important. For example.. MN and WI are trending Republican more and more. A win by more than 3% in Minnesota would be an Exclamation point. People vote like their neighbors… that is a saying I have heard more than once. Another, everyone likes a winner. The results in those states will frame the Politics in them for the next 2 election cycles.

    35. Jeremy says:

      Kim,

      I would bet ONE of the criteria a polling organization uses in determining likely voters is whether they voted in the last election.

      I’m confident it would not be the only criterion.

    36. Michael DeFlavia says:

      Kim,

      Finally something of value. However, if you read your papers their are serious questions about many of the absentee ballots already given to the state. There was an article today about OH. ACT is acting very suspicious and the state may wind up throwing out a lot of ballots. They are calling people and being told that they have never spoken to anyone.

      We will see. I have to go watch Rescue Me. See ya!

    37. Jeremy says:

      If Bush wins IA, MN, WI…he wins OH

    38. Kwame says:

      Heavy M–
      But it depends how good the LV model is. How do you determine who is likely? Questions vary. In addition, the consensus seems to be that voters who are likely in Sept may not be likely in Nov. Better to go with RVs until late October.

    39. Scotsmac says:

      Not necessarily Jeremy… infact with the economic conditions of all the aid states and the actual deployment of political Forces. I would say that it is more likely Bush pulls of the trifecta than wins Ohio. Let me explain. Ohio everyone knows no Republican has won the white house without. So.. the Dems and their accomplices have Floated Ohio with GOTV. Yes that includes the 5000 ballots all signed by the same person that came from the afl-cio head quarters… and the same thing that has happend with the ACT registrations. Dems have less troops on the Ground in Minnesota than in ANY other battleground State. Where as Republicans have MORE on the ground in both WI and MN. IA is very close. All that coupled with the current economics of Ohio lead me to my assumption that the Trifecta is more likely.

    40. Kwame says:

      OK Heavy M, if Gallup’s LVs are to be believed, you explain why Bush runs weaker with LVs than RVs nationally, according to Gallup’s latest, and stronger with LVs than RVs in these three states. I think you can see that’s….a….contradiction.

      And, when we in statistics see a contradcition like that, we throw out the damn numbers, instead of playing make believe.

    41. greg says:

      Kwame! You’re back to RV! What happened with the Gallup and ABC national polls?

    42. greg says:

      Consistency…isn’t that a baking term? Stir until the batter has a uniform consistency…

    43. Jeremy says:

      I stand by my bold predictions :).

      Bush takes the big 3 – FL, OH, PA

      If Bush takes IA, MN, WI, he takes OH

    44. Tim V says:

      NYT headline: Hurricanes effect poll results

      Hurricanes are most likely to blame for a Gallup poll. showing Bush up by 10 points in FL. Due to power loss, many voters were denied the chance to see Kerry’s new campaingn orange complexion ” I know something about pumpins”, said Kerry. “When I was in Vietnam, the memories of halloween were seared, seared in my memory. George Bush has lead this country into a gruesome war, more horrifying than any Halloween movie. “

    45. greg says:

      Jeremy, you want a bold prediction?

      Bush wins 40 states.

    46. Go Duke!!! (formerly Tina G.) says:

      Greg,
      Only 40?

      Hi Kwame! Miss me?

    47. MikeKS says:

      Greg, I tend to agree. I think Bush may win all except:

      CA
      HI
      MA
      IL
      DC
      CT
      VT
      RI
      NY
      WA

      I think Bush could still sneak ahead in MI, NJ, DE, MD, and ME.

    48. Jeremy says:

      Hey, I didn’t say that was as bold as I could go. 😉

    49. bobm says:

      You guys have really shown sexist comments towards Kim. I suppose after all she is just a women. This sounds like typical consevative feelings.

    50. Jeremy says:

      Maybe Michael’s joke, lol

      But it was a joke.

    51. McCain says:

      Bobm, I have not followed this thread but you just made a seriously sexist comment. Why do you think Kim needs a big man like you to stand up for her? Surely she has a brain and can do it on her own.

    52. bobm says:

      Read the comments McCain it seems like a little ganging up is going on here and reffering to her being so emotional.

    53. Mike Green says:

      God please let these polls be true!

    54. Dave G says:

      Agree with Greg and Mike KS on their bold predictions. Bush takes 40 states if he wins 53-45 like his father did in 1988, which seems highly plausible right now. The states he would take are:

      The 30 Red States.
      The 5 Blue States within 3 pts or less last time (MN, IA, WI, OR, NM).
      The four big northern states that Kerry leads in by about 2 pts right now (PA, NJ, MI, MD).
      And, of course, Maine.

      Since RCP has Bush leading by 6 pts in the polling avg right now, it makes sense that an 8 pt Bush victory would flip MI, NJ, MD, and PA. If Bush wins by 5-6 pts though, he could still take a couple of the latter states that I mentioned.

    55. Polaris says:

      MikeKS,

      With the great news out tonight elsewhere, I will say here and now that it looks like I was right earlier today. The Gallup OH poll was an outlier. I was (and am) right to insist on a confirming poll.

      As for Florida, I am pleased of course, but I will take it with a grain of salt because of the hurricanes. That said, it is consistant with the I-4 results I mentioned earlier.

      Also Scottsmac is right. If Bush pulls off the Iowa, Wis, MN trifecta then he wins. No way Ohio goes Kerry if he carries those three. Also there is no way Bush is only up by two and behind in RVs if the other state polls are accurate. No way.

      It looks like Gallup got an outlier in Ohio. It happens.

      -Polaris

    56. buckeye says:

      You guys can try to deflect the Gallup results away, but the bottom line is the Republican’s favorite pollster has Kerry up 4 among RVs in a state that has the strongest GOTV effort by democrats in the whole country. For whatever reason, Kerry has tried harder to win Ohio than Florida (4 of the top 5 media ad buy markets for Kerry are in Ohio). As a Buckeye, I’m not sure this makes sense for carry since FL’s 27 EV is equivalent to Ohio and an Iowa, but Kerry is still leading among RVs. And without repeating what everyone should know, Gallup’s RV results have been closer to the actual tally in the last election and three out of the last four. Go Bucks.

    57. buckeye says:

      You guys can try to deflect the Gallup results away, but the bottom line is the Republican’s favorite pollster has Kerry up 4 among RVs in a state that has the strongest GOTV effort by democrats in the whole country. For whatever reason, Kerry has tried harder to win Ohio than Florida (4 of the top 5 media ad buy markets for Kerry are in Ohio). As a Buckeye, I’m not sure this makes sense for carry since FL’s 27 EV is equivalent to Ohio and an Iowa, but Kerry is still leading among RVs. And without repeating what everyone should know, Gallup’s RV results have been closer to the actual tally in the last election and three out of the last four. Go Bucks.

    58. Rachel says:

      Uh, bobm…”After all she is just a woman??!” Excuse me, but that’s offensive.

    59. Polaris says:

      buckeye,

      No one is “deflecting” anything. We are stating the bloody obvious. If Kerry is only up 2-3 in New Jersey, down as much as 10 in Wisconson, 6 in Iowa, down three in Pennsylvania (a more Dem friendly state than Ohio), and only up two in Michigan, then there is simply no way in hell that the Ohio result is right.

      Add in that a SV poll done the day before had Bush up by 9, and all Polls done in the past month have shown a Bush lead which tells you that Bush is up by at least the MOE (usually 3-5 points) in Ohio.

      All we (or at least I) am saying is that when you factor in all the other information (including the national numbers), it looks like Gallup got a bad sample this time, i.e. an outlier. It happens. That’s why those of us that are seasoned politicos want a confirming poll.

      -Polaris

    60. pw says:

      bobm,

      I’ve referred to Tina as “Darlin'” a couple of times.
      It was done humorously.
      Your accusations and stereotypes (sexism as part of conservatism) are inappropriate.

    61. Alex says:

      Polaris, I agree, it is an outlier. However, I believe WI is closer than 10 (more like 3-8), Iowa is closer than 6 (more like 2-4), PA I think Kerry has a lead since before this Gallup poll, there were five straight polls showing Kerry up, so I’ll need a few more polls to confirm PA has shifted back to Bush. I also think 2 points is the low point for Kerry in Michigan as of right now as polls have shown Kerry up 10, 8, and 4 as well. I agree with you about New Jersey. So, while I agree Ohio is an outlier, I believe Bush’s lead in OH is more like 3-6, not 6-10.

    62. CJ says:

      With all the excitement the dems are having with Ohio I believe their missing the point that even if Kerry were to win Ohio it wouldn’t do him any good with Bush winning Iowa and Wisconsin. Remember Bush has an extra 7 or was it 5 electoral votes from 2000?

    63. Polaris says:

      Alex,

      I agree. I still consider Penn a “slight lean to Kerry” at this point, Gallup notwithstanding. Just as I insist on a confirming OH poll with good reason, you have an equally legitamate right to insist on a confirming Penn poll.

      I also think that Bush has a solid lead in WI but as I said elsewhere, I too don’t think it is 10 points. (My guess is close to yours actually…we could quibble on the exact percentages).

      As for the national numbers, I still think that Bush’s lead is 6-8. We’ll know soon enough.

      -Polaris

    64. Polaris says:

      CJ,

      You’re right. I suspect that Rove had the Trifecta (Minn, IA, WI) in mind from the beginning. He he can pull it off (and it looks like he is doing a good job thus far), then Bush only needs to win one of the big three (Penn, Fla, OH) rather than two. It makes Kerry’s electoral math virtually impossible.

      -Polaris

    65. CJ says:

      We can also flip New Mexico for New Hampshire

    66. CJ says:

      THIS is kind of fun. At worst I have Bush with 291.

    67. pw says:

      The FL poll is meaningless for obvious reasons (the hurricane’s still happened no matter who’s ahead).
      I think Ohio is more solidly Bush than that, and I also believe that Kerry has a 2-3 lead in Pennsylvania.
      Interested to see the next Minnesota poll. We haven’t had many lately.

    68. Jane says:

      To understand these polls you have to think out of the box. It means nothing that Ohio traditionally leans Republican. What matters is the last four years.The here and now realities of 2004.There is little party loyalty anymore anywhere. Picture all those job losses and what it’s done to communities and peoples sense of security. If you haven’t lost your job you are worried about it.You aren’t thinking about terrorism when you don’t have health insurance and how will you feed your family. There are no Dems to blame, the Republicans run everything. So it’s not surprising that it’s close. Things are better in Pennsylvania so Bush is doing better, it’s that simple. Is that so hard to understand? All pollsters are having a hard time figuring out who’s a likely voter because this is a unique situation, a unique election with complex issues. We’ll just have to wait and see what the only poll that matters says on 11/02. Personally I believe voter turnout will be real high and Dems are registering in record numbers just about everywhere. I could be wrong but I believe people feel that this election will affect all our futures so people will vote in droves. The results will speak for themselves.

    69. CJ says:

      Jane, I don’t think the democrats can run on hate alone, no matter how many they register. I believe there is a voter block not touched on before. 9-11 Republicans, not 9-11 democrats. I have always considered myself a Republican but have never bothered to register to vote. Until this year. I know I can’t be the only one. The democrats are good at yelling and complaining and raising their profile through the willing media but I’m a firm believer in a strong, committed, and very large silent majority.

    70. Polaris says:

      Jane,

      Just to expound on CJ’s point, consider the most unpopular war in US History. Vietnam.

      During the 1972 election, you had one politically and socially liberal candidate, who was staunchly anti-war and a war hero from WWII. He tapped into a HUGE vein of antiwar sentiment and ran it all the way to the election.
      By your logic, he should have won the election running away against a moderately pro-war candiate that ran on optimism.

      He didn’t.

      He lost 49 states.

      His name was McGovern. It’s happening again.

      -Polaris

    71. pw says:

      Pods beat San Fran 4-3!
      YES!
      Tina, I know you love the Gigantes, but my Cubbies needed a break.
      Houston’s a half-game up, but they’ve played one more game than the Giants and the Cubs.
      Houston’s off today, I think.
      Polaris, I don’t think this will be 1972, though I mean that in terms of the margin of victory and not in terms of the eventual winner.
      I think the incumbent will win again.

    72. Polaris says:

      PW,

      I certainly don’t think that Bush will win 49 states again. I think that the population is much more segregated by political beliefs than it was then precluding such a landslide.

      That said, the other parallels between this race and 1972 are almost frightening (if you are a Kerry supporter).

      -Polaris

    73. pw says:

      Good points.
      We’ll find out in 33 days.
      Oh, Bush’s JA was 52% in the L.A. Times poll.
      JA is very important.
      If you average his JA over the last ten polls (excluding Rasmussen’s tracking), it is over 51%.
      Not too bad.

    74. Jane says:

      Polaris. It is hard to imagine a McGovern presidency worse then Nixon’s second term. Like I said, we’ll see on election day who turns out. What you think, and what I think, are just two voices.