Trump : 187
Biden : 351
Click here

GOP : 48
DEM : 50
IND : 2
Click here


    Biden Leads Trump By 13% in MI, Two Polls Show DIfferent Leader in NC

    Well after we got those numbers form Trafalgar Group for Michigan claiming Trump was ahead by 2%, we get a new poll from Gravis Marketing for the state of Michigan done on the exact same day as the Trafalgar Group poll (October 24th) that shows Joe Biden leading in Michigan by double digits.

    Joe Biden (D) 55%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 42%

    Gary Peters (D-inc) 52%
    John James (R) 41%

    This poll was done October 24th among 679 likely voters. So we literally had two polls done on the same day in the same state, one has Trump ahead by 2% and one has Biden ahead by 13%. The great news is in about nine days, we will see which polling organizations know what is actually happening.

    Meanwhile CBS News and YouGov gave us new numbers for the states of North Carolina, GeorgiaGeorgiaGeorgia and Florida.

    Joe Biden (D) 51%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 47%

    Joe Biden (D) 50%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 48%

    Joe Biden (D) 49%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 49%

    Cal Cunningham (D) 49%
    Thom Tillis (R-inc) 43%

    David Perdue (R-inc) 47%
    Jon Ossoff (D) 46%

    These polls were done October 20-23 among likely voters in each state. Meanwhile, Trafalgar Group came back again this morning with a new poll for the state of North Carolina themselves that was done before the debate and it has, surprise, Trump ahead.

    Donald Trump (R-inc) 49%
    Joe Biden (D) 46%

    This poll was done October 20-22 among 1098 likely voters.

    Posted by Dave at 1:14 pm
    Filed under: General | Comments (400)

    400 Responses to “Biden Leads Trump By 13% in MI, Two Polls Show DIfferent Leader in NC”

    1. MrVito says:

      Senate Cloakroom
      · 9m
      NOW VOTING: Motion to invoke cloture on Executive Calendar #890 Amy Coney Barrett to be an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States.

    2. hugh says:

      Vito. that is a big chump chump. the greatest satisfaction on nov 4th besides trump winning will be the end of the fake pollsters. It is so funny to read the comments on predictit for the tillis race. They are all fired up about these polls. While some other guys is just throwing all the detailed math of the EV and expectation on ED vote and they just cant grasp it. It is unbelievable how gullible these dems really are.

    3. mnw says:


      Wouldn’t a sarcastic “surprise” be equally appropriate for Gravis & YouGov?

    4. jason says:

      I firmly believe there are a lot of shy Trump voters out there. With the “stigma” associated with being a Trump supporter, i.e you are a deplorable and racist, there is no way these people don’t exist. The argument that this is not true because look at all the Trump yard signs and bumper stickers everywhere is not convincing.

      Whether they are showing up in polling or not will will soon know.

    5. Bitterlaw says:

      Chicon – I saw your post. Thank you. I keep going back to what the priest said during the funeral. The only person who knows why she did it is her and she can’t answer questions.

    6. Bitterlaw says:

      I have only seen 4 Trump signs in my town. However, there are far fewer Biden signs than Hillary signs 4 years ago.

    7. Greymarch says:

      It wont be 51-48 for the final Barrett vote tomorrow. Bet your house it will be 53GOP-47DEM, directly down party lines.

    8. mnw says:

      7 Grey

      Do you think Collins is LYING when she says she’ll vote “NO”?

    9. Greymarch says:

      Thank heavens the senate races in MN and MI have tightened. The GOP has multiple ways of maintaining the majority in the senate.

    10. Greymarch says:

      Collins never said she would vote against the nominee. She said she would vote against having the process completed before the election. There is a difference. Big difference.

    11. Scooterboy says:

      Nate Silver & The Pollster for Trafalgar are going at it again on Twitter. Trafalgar is the only pollster that has Trump up in every swing state, I believe.

      Silver questioning Trafalgar’s methodology. Funny how he never questions the methodology of all these bogus Dem double digit polls.

    12. mnw says:

      10 Grey

      That’s NOT what she said, & she’s repeated her position frequently, but… we’ll know soon enough.

      Maybe u r confusing Collins’ position with Alaska’s Sorrow.

    13. Greymarch says:

      If Collins votes “no” on Barrett tomorrow evening she is kaput. Whatever GOP base she has in Maine will no longer want to vote for her. Oh sure, the Maine democrats would say “thank you Susan!”….and they the Maine democrats will vote for Collins opponent Anyhow. 21st century American politics is ruthless.

    14. Greymarch says:

      #12: I disagree

      What I stated earlier is what Collins has been clearly implying.

    15. mnw says:

      Collins will still lose whether she votes yes; no; or present.

    16. Jeff G. says:

      Again, I am befuddled by people questioning why Trump would visit certain states and that it proves his campaign is “worried” about that state. He is campaigning at a breakneck pace right down to the last minute. You don’t maintain enthusiastic support without constantly stoking that enthusiasm. I love that he is not taking anything for granted.

    17. Gordon Allen says:

      With the mandatory “it’s Dave’s site and he can do what he wants” out of the way,does Wissing REALLY believe Quinnepiac and CBS/ You Guv…polls are real and Trafalger is not( ie he’s seriously gone),or is he simply a phony like gatorjoel who doesn’t believe half of what he posts). I think it’s the former and he’s got Stockholm syndrome from prolonged captivity to leftist drivel all around him.
      PS It’s my yard but I think my neighbors have a gripe about how I keep it.

    18. Greymarch says:

      #15: Agreed. Collins will likely lose no matter how she votes. She will lose by a closer margin if she votes yes on Barrett. A yes on Barrett gives her a slight chance of winning in ME. A “no” on Barrett and she loses by double-digits.

    19. michael corleone says:

      I wouldn’t write off Collins.

    20. STL_Scott says:

      I have been coming by this site every four years and every so often between presidential elections. I am amazed by the the regulars I can count on always being here.

      Right now this board and the polls seem like a repeat of 2008 to me. I am hoping for a Trump win but how can all the polls be “wrong” just like they were in ‘08.

    21. Greymarch says:

      #20: I think must of the people who reply on this messageboard believe the polls are mimicking 2016, instead of 2008. Thus, many around here believe Trump will win.

      I think it will be a close race for the EVs. If I had to bet my house, I will take Biden. I think Biden is winning PA by a few points, and PA is the whole election.

    22. Gordon Allen says:

      Agree Collins has to vote yes. Interesting that Trump is going to Maine. A simple reason might be he’s having fun; it looks that way, while Biden looks like it’s root canal. If we overanalyze early voting,and probably do,we can I guess do that with body language. With that said Trump looks like the winner and Biden the loser.
      It’s funny that Biden’s own manager said the election was tight,but the msm( and Wissing) keeps saying it’s a Biden landslide.

    23. Will says:

      would not write Susan Collins off either.

      You think Trump might be going to ME to help her out some??

      Early vote turn out in my NC precinct continues to trend to Repubs. Now up 55 from original 200 mail in vote deficit prior to the start of in-person early voting.

      Still don’t have an indication if the overall voter number will be higher. The early numbers are still less than in 2016 in this precinct.

      Elections are local.

    24. Gordon Allen says:

      21. They were in 2016,and they were objectively more plausible.

    25. BB Styles says:

      New poster here and gotta say I have enjoyed reading through the comments this election cycle to complement the discussions from my poli sci classes.

      I’m curious if anyone can provide further insight or data to support why Ohio is expected to follow more closely to 2016 which Trump won by 8%, rather than 2008/2012 when Obama won, and 2000/2004 when GWB won by 2-3%.

    26. Ridin' with Biden says:

      Goodness Gracious! It would appear that Trafalgar is now just making up polls. Just look at the cross tab data. Jeepers. How unfortunate.

    27. chris says:

      20: it was 2012 when everyone here was unskewing the polls and assuming the turnout in 2012 could never match historic 2008.

      So the question becomes is this year closer to 2012 or 2016? For me, its impossible to compare Trump to Romney in terms of support and pulling non political people to the polls. So I believe the polls are repeating the same mistakes of 2016.

    28. Phil says:


      Ohio does not have the affluent suburbs that exist in states like Pa. It’s a working class State and those working class voters switched from Obama to Trump massively in 2016. They aren’t switching back again to Biden. He’d need a demographic like exists in the Philly suburbs to exist in Ohio. It doesn’t.

    29. Steant1965 says:

      I think for many of us who support Trump, we just don’t believe the polls. The pollsters have all been exposed as having an agenda. The media that sponsors polls all have their own agenda to defeat Trump. If we can’t believe the media’s stories about Trump, why would we believe their polls? Plus, why rely on polls when people are actually voting already?

    30. lisab says:


      i’m pretty sure it is a combination of dave being a never trumper


      him having fun by trolling trump supporters

    31. Greymarch says:

      I am a lifelong republican. Lifelong conservative. As long as we get ACB confirmed tomorrow, and keep the senate after election day, I will be content. If Trump loses, I wont be upset. The two accomplishments I listed (ACB and senate) will have been major achievements considering the current political climate (and media obstruction) conservatives currently have to live through.

    32. Gordon Allen says:

      Lisa B. That wouldn’t be ” nice”.

    33. jaichind says:

      6. Posted from the prev thread

      I had to drive around my county several times this weekend running various errands and drop-offs. Many of these trips had to go through residential areas. My county is a high income NYC suburb.

      My conclusion is that the class divide is very stark:
      a) Biden enthusiasm is very high in ultra-rich areas. This is much higher than Clinton 2016. I can see the fundraising gap that Biden has. The people in these areas work in knowledge intensive industries.
      b) Trump enthusiasm high and it seems higher than in 2016 more middle income and small business owner areas.
      c) I did notice that where houses are next to parks with events (baseball or soccer) the both Trump and Bidens signs are taken down put back up after the event is over. For sure suggests there are hidden Trump, and in some cases, hidden Biden voters.

    34. Bitterlaw says:

      Dave posts polls. Most polls in contested states suck for Trump. That does not mean the polls are correct.

      Dave posted polls that were good and bad for Bush in 2004. He did the same with the candidates in 2008, 2012 and 2016. If he only posts pro-Trump polls, threads will go to 4000+ comments or we will see Trump +25 polls from July for Montana.

    35. Tina says:

      Biden called a lid 9 days out.

      Think he got a bid too dark, negative, and mean on the trail.

      He went off script yesterday badly.

      This comes after the debate loss.

    36. Gordon Allen says:

      Grey March: The two go together in all likelihood; if Trump wins we’ll keep the Senate; if he loses,by anything remotely like the msm polls show,we won’t.
      Still can’t think of a single reason why Trump’s floor is at least 46%,or why Biden’s ceiling is higher than Obama.For the msm polls to be right, Trump’s floor is lower than 2016,and Biden’s ceiling as good or better than Obama. There are in my view literal impossibilities,so the ” polls” have to be wrong by a lot; enough is the question. I think yes they are.

    37. lisab says:

      i’ve noticed a pick up of biden signs in mn

      often right next to a neighbor who put up a trump sign

      but … trump is far ahead middle/class working class places, and biden far ahead in college towns

    38. lisab says:

      Biden called a lid 9 days out.

      Think he got a bid too dark, negative, and mean on the trail.

      He went off script yesterday badly.

      he slurred his words

    39. hugh says:

      20. Yes like 2008 biden is like obama.. ha ha ha

    40. lisab says:

      in fairness … every day he is getting a hunter’s pnuss report from one of his aides

      that has to be embarrassing

      thank god i don’t have boys …

      “ummmmmmmmm sir … here are the latest pictures …”

      harris must be livid

    41. Phil says:

      Greymarch, if Trump loses and the senate flips the Barrett nomination and confirmation isn’t worth a bucket of spit. The Democrats ill pack the court. Barrett’s vote on the court won’t mean a damned thing.

    42. Boog says:

      20 – this election is similar to both 2016 AND 2012.

      2016 – many, if not most of the MSM/university polls are (intentionally) wrong, designed to drive the narrative. Lot of shy Trump voters. To the extent it is different, it is that Trump has much more enthusiasm now, and a much more feeble opponent, politically and physically.

      2012 – also, very similar to 2012, but Trump is in the role of Obama — the incumbent with a motivated base, a deep and wide ground game, and an opponent who is out of his depth.

    43. Pitchaboy says:

      Interesting tussle at Predictit over NC

    44. hugh says:

      Miami is just going to sink Biden. It is a disaster for biden right now. Also no movement today towards biden with souls to the polls. It is almost stick a fork in it time.

    45. jaichind says:

      31. Generally agree. If I was given a choice of {Trump win 50/50, GOP Senate 50/50) OR (Trump win 10/90, GOP Senate 90/10) I would take the latter in a second. Based on what we know about Biden and the lack of a core vision of a Biden administration a Biden 2020 victory most likely would mean a very good GOP years in 2022 and 2024. Also I suspect the winner of the 2024 election will get to nominate Clarence Thomas’s seat and losing in 2020 is the best way to win in 2024.

    46. hugh says:

      43 yes. those who believe the msm polls and those that actually have familiarity with ev in NC. I wonder which group will make money? These people are so stupid. The old saying fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice shame on me. I think the only election I can remember where the dem pres candidate doing as well as the polling was obama in 2008. otherwise it is pretty much always the same.

    47. Greymarch says:

      #41: Dems wont pack the court. Couple of reasons:

      1) Real polls the past few weeks have shown that over a 2 to 1 ratio, voters want SCOTUS to stay at 9. Dems put more justices on the court, they lose the house and senate 2022.

      2) If the dems win the senate, they will own the senate by a razor-close margin. There are dem senators already on the record as saying they think packing the court is a bad idea. Just like the house for 2022, any dem senator from a red state would be doomed if they pack the court.

      This packing the court stuff is non-sense at this point. The country is almost equally divided regarding its politics. For either side to make such a radical change to the govt would absolutely ruin them for the 2022 congressional elections.

    48. lisab says:

      so once i was minding my own business, teaching my class … when the substitute from the next class comes over …

      a boy … ummmmmm … had an issue … with his …

      anyway, the poor girl was like 21, and had no idea what to do … neither did i of course soooooooo

      being the nice person i am … i called the school nurse

      but trying not to scar the poor boy for life was difficult. the school called his mother … but his father came and got him

    49. Pitchaboy says:

      Jai, that is a load of bull. Mr. Biden will govern from the far left. To the point, the left will yank his chains. And some RINO Senators will help him.

    50. mnw says:

      50 Pitch


    51. Phil says:

      Democrats vote in lock step these days.

      This is their chance. I wish I could believe they would voluntarily pull back the reigns when they have a chance for an ideological majority on the Court. Their donors and base will insist on going all in I’m afraid.

    52. Chicon says:

      Grey – have you found the quote yet? Collins, I believe, said awhile ago she was a no. Trump tweeted a rant against her (which I took as an effort to help Collins).

    53. Phil says:

      I don’t really get how anyone watching the Democrats during the Kavanaugh hearing can actually believe the Senate Democrats will restrain themselves on Court packing. They aren’t the party of self restraint anymore. Of course, it is a two step process. They will have to abolish the filibuster first.

    54. mnw says:

      My take:

      A certain pre-WWII European political candidate famously said, “We have to win this election to make sure there won’t be any more of them.”

      That’s what the DEMs intend. Making sure there will never be another conservative POTUS, or another conservative SCOTUS. EVER.

      If they have to take some painful losses to do that, they’ll accept the painful losses.

      A DEM trifecta would mean court packing; 2 new states, with 4 new DEM senators; open borders, resulting in millions of new voters every year; and legal vote harvesting in every future federal election.

      The end goal for the DEMs is NOT China or some other communist autocracy. The end goal is the EU– in which the political right is permanently excluded from power, & a leftist uniparty runs the govt in perpetuity.

    55. MrVito says:

      So, the modeled gap in FL EV has dropped from 5.3 to 3.9.

      And as I speculated, the modeled gap in new voters over 2016 dropped an identical 1.4 percent.

    56. Tina says:

      Ok, trump,is heading to Bangor, Maine now.

    57. mnw says:

      I read a funny, true story in the WSJ once, about a non-English speaking German tourist. He thought he had bought a ticket to Miami, but he ended up in Bangor, ME.

    58. hugh says:

      some one asked earlier about how this can be

      Larry Schweikart
      FL In Person Early Voting
      Rs +234,258

      “Freeper” byecomey’s estimate of “supervoters” remaining (i.e., most reliable sure-to-vote):
      Rs +324,270
      Ds in the hole -29,954

      What this means is that on ED if this held there would still be more than 324000 supervoters than those voting on ED in 2016. For dems if these numbers dont change they have 29,954 less supervoters available to vote in ED versus in 2016. In other words there are a lot more republican supervoters left than 324K and dems still have additiona supervoters. My daughter was at the rnc in bradenton and they said their ground game focus is totally for voters who are less reliable to vote. The assumption being that it will be easy to get the rest out later. smart right? It does mean we have lots more room to grow versus the dems. But it is partially why dems are ahead on ev so far.

    59. lisab says:

      I read a funny, true story in the WSJ once, about a non-English speaking German tourist. He thought he had bought a ticket to Miami, but he ended up in Bangor, ME.

      i’ve heard similar stories of oakland vs aukland

      pre-9/11 of course

    60. hugh says:

      Also, i need to brag on my daughter. Her firm uses expensify. that is the company where the ceo thought it appropriate to send to all its customers an email to their employees telling them to vote for biden or they are destroying democracy. She fired off an email to one of the firms partners, who contacted the managing partner and they immediately fired Espensify and threatened legal action if any employee received another email. Apparently, millions of people receive these emails. Lots of bloggin on it. It appears there will be legal action by some. What is wrong with the left today?? The Board should fire the CEO, but I think he is the founder. oh well

    61. lisab says:

      i remember traveling through moscow


      they had i think 5 security-checks before we got on the plane

      again this was pre-9/11

      i was traveling with a cat. she had a passport too, about her rabies shots etc.

      no joke, the russians compared her picture to the one on her passport!

    62. lisab says:

      rumor is the dnc did not want biden, warren or bernie

      they wanted a new young face, but bernie was going to win anyway

      so they got warren to take bernie out

    63. lisab says:

      the clinton people wanted bernie out no matter what

    64. jason says:

      A DEM trifecta would mean court packing; 2 new states, with 4 new DEM senators; open borders, resulting in millions of new voters every year; and legal vote harvesting in every future federal election.

      The end goal for the DEMs is NOT China or some other communist autocracy. The end goal is the EU– in which the political right is permanently excluded from power, & a leftist uniparty runs the govt in perpetuity.”

      Well, yeah, but some here are talking about how “judging from the past” 2022 and 2024 will “good for the GOP”.’


    65. Akula_KS says:

      I know that alzeimer patients sundown in the evening. Is Biden high nooning by putting a lid on at 11:47?

    66. hugh says:

      Good news so far in FL. Souls to the polls while not over for the day we have gained 23K in person votes and lost 13K mail in votes. A net gain of 10K on a sunday. unheard of in Florida. Many voting sites in Red counties are not even open. Looks like vbm is not going to work out for the dems. I would have been happy and will still be happy if we break even today or even lose by 10k. more time to vote, but it is looking very good.

      chump chump

    67. hugh says:

      AZ early vote (mail and in-person combined):
      Ds 591,034
      Rs 465,011

      Rs are at 90% of their 2016 vote already in Maricopa Co. and in AZ Rs turn out on election day. This is a really strong performance by Rs.

      Rs outpaced Ds in ballot requests by, 2,100.

    68. JeffP says:

      I am watching Trump at Maine appearance. Security nightmare. But he is signing autographs. This President is loved by these people. It really is something else.

    69. Cal says:

      Someone say Banger?

    70. JeffP says:

      Trump is going to hit all the states in play. Rust belt states multiple times until election day.

    71. Sean says:

      68 hugh – how are D’s doing in relation to the 2016 vote?

    72. hugh says:

      I believe dems are doing better at this point due to heavy push to for dems to vote by mail. Not unlike other places. Same with Florida, NC etc. However, I think the underlying theory is that many dems are not wanting to vote in person. Surveys show that dems are very concerned about covid and republicans are not. The key is that reps stay somewhat close to 2016 numbers, because they will blow away ED voting since many dems that would have voted in person in the past will not vote on ED.

    73. Gordon Allen says:

      Remember about comparing Fla in 2016 and 2020 is that the population of Florida has grown about ;1,000,000; that’s a gain of 600,000 potential voters or so. Keep that in mind regarding early voting percentages.

    74. Wes says:

      mnw says:
      October 25, 2020 at 3:10 pm
      My take:

      A certain pre-WWII European political candidate famously said, “We have to win this election to make sure there won’t be any more of them.”

      That’s what the DEMs intend. Making sure there will never be another conservative POTUS, or another conservative SCOTUS. EVER.

      If they have to take some painful losses to do that, they’ll accept the painful losses.

      A DEM trifecta would mean court packing; 2 new states, with 4 new DEM senators; open borders, resulting in millions of new voters every year; and legal vote harvesting in every future federal election.

      The end goal for the DEMs is NOT China or some other communist autocracy. The end goal is the EU– in which the political right is permanently excluded from power, & a leftist uniparty runs the govt in perpetuity.

      This of course assumes Dems won’t do this after 2024. Since apparently the new rule is that Republicans can’t win if Donald Trump isn’t their nominee, I guess we should just prepare to start living in the EU now. Whether Dems get full power now or in four years, the end results will be identical.

    75. jason says:

      What is wrong with the left today?”

      The leftist dominance of academia and the media is spreading to the corporate world, not just the suburbs.

      Not surprising, today’s CEOss are a product of this culture.

      We can delay socialism a few years by re-electing Trump, but I don’t see how it can be prevented without profound structural changes in education.

      We cannot expect capitalist CEOs who are basically educated in Marxism.

    76. Sean says:

      I just hate how all the pollsters have agendas. I guess if there’s a way to identify how many of the supervoters (4 out of 4 elections) have already voted, that’s a relevant data point. The joeisdone website has that estimate for Florida. Have you seen anything like that for any other state?

      I want to believe Baris (I donated to him), I want to believe Trafalgar, at the same time I don’t want to be wearing too rosy glasses.

    77. Stonewall DW says:

      Wes, if you doctor tells you that if you pass a hurdle in 9 days you will live another 4 years, but if you don’t then you die in 9 days, most will want to make it another 4 years. Its human nature to want to live.

      Its also true that people can vote themselves into socialism, but would have to shoot themselves back out of it.

    78. jason says:

      Since apparently the new rule is that Republicans can’t win if Donald Trump isn’t their nominee”

      I have said many times this election is not really about Trump, so I am hardly a proponent of such rule.

      My point is the Dems will have enough power to enact profound changes like nothing ever seen before that will make unlikely any R “comeback”.

    79. hugh says:

      Sean. Joeisdone somehow got it from targetsmart. BTW Republicans continue to gain to day. more slowly than the last few days. However it is clear souls to the polls was a bust!! Hopefully, that plays out in other big souls to the polls states like NC

    80. Stonewall DW says:

      Everyone laughed at Trafalgar in 2016. Trafalgar was right. Then they laughed at Trafalgar in 2018. Trafalgar was right. Now they are laughing again at Trafalgar in 2020.

      But its not just Trafalgar. There is the Big Data poll. In many of these states its also Rasmussen. Its also Susquehanna. Even ABC News/Washington Post had Trump up 4 in Florida.

      Pollsters have to work hard to reach the rural vote, much less the shy Trump vote. Most are not willing to do that work.

    81. BillW says:

      Sean – So you can put on your rosy glasses and enjoy life for the next nine days and if you are wrong, you will have a terrible night on November 3rd.

      OR you can be anxious, angry and miserable for the next nine days.

      Neither one of those options will affect what happens on November 3rd.

      I would choose the optimistic path myself.

    82. jason says:

      Whether Dems get full power now or in four years, the end results will be identical.”

      This is very true. They will be identical.

      But most death row inmates, given the choice, prefer being executed in 4 years rather than now.

    83. Stonewall DW says:

      Is there bad weather in FL today? I thought Dems were supposed to souls to polls today? I checked the numbers and the GOP ballot percentage continues to rise and the Dem ballot percentage continues to drop.

    84. jason says:

      I guess we should just prepare to start living in the EU now.”

      This is certainly good advice.

      If Trump loses, it is exactly what I will do.

    85. Wes says:

      jason says:
      October 25, 2020 at 4:31 pm
      Since apparently the new rule is that Republicans can’t win if Donald Trump isn’t their nominee”

      I have said many times this election is not really about Trump, so I am hardly a proponent of such rule.

      My point is the Dems will have enough power to enact profound changes like nothing ever seen before that will make unlikely any R “comeback”.

      Actually, Jason, you’re one of the biggest proponents of this rule. You’ve said multiple times Trump was the only electable Republican in 2016. Well, guess what. Whether Trump wins or loses next Tuesday, he won’t be the nominee in 2024. If not other Republican than Trump appeals to the base Trump excited to the polls in 2016, then logically speaking, the GOP is done as a party in just over 48 months.

    86. Wes says:

      You literally can’t have it both ways. Either GOP electoral success is entirely dependent on Trump, or it isn’t. If Trump is the only person who appeals to a winning coalition, then this election is academic. If, however, Donald Trump is not the focal point of American electoral politics, then Republicans can win in the future without him regardless of his status in nine days.

    87. Stonewall DW says:

      Wes, I remain hopeful that if Trump can have a successful second term, that maybe Pence can run on the “Trump third term” platform and win, like Bush 41 did in 1988.

    88. pitchaboy says:

      Without a doubt nobody but DJT would have turned out voters in PA, WI, MI in 2016. But, I am afraid, his coalition may not survive him.

    89. Sean says:

      Does anyone know what happened to the Trafalgar polls posted earlier. Michigan, Florida, and one other, all showing Trump leads.

    90. Robbie says:

      It’s rich to say the Republican Party will essentially cease to exist if Trump is not the president and then say the election is not about Trump. It can’t be both.

      Trump is a moment in the time. The Republican Party survived Nixon and GWB. It will survive once Trump is no longer on the scene.

      If ever the party was doomed it was after 2008. The party had been decapitated by 2006 and 2008, yet it roared back in 2010.

      The party, even if Trump loses, will have more House members, Senators, governors, and state legislative bodies than it did after 2009.

    91. Stonewall DW says:

      90 – link seems broken

    92. lisab says:

      not true about the 4 years

      if the dems lose now

      the far left will revolt from the dnc, it will be open civil war.

      this is the second election the far left was told to shut up and vote for “the adults”

      if trump wins i can see pelosi and schumer having challenges and facing youngsters insulting them to their face

    93. mnw says:

      If Trump is re-elected, the only way we conservatives dodge the bullet in 2024 is if The Squad takes control of the DEM party, & nominates a leftist so extreme that their candidate even alienates wine moms & tech executives.

      Imo, this scenario is probable, if Biden loses. “Moderation” & “white males” are going to be SOOO yesterday! “We tried that, & look what we got! More Trump. We might as well nominate somebody we really like next time. It couldn’t be any worse, right?”

      (cough!) President Cotton (cough!)

    94. Robbie says:

      Stonewall DW says:
      October 25, 2020 at 4:48 pm
      Wes, I remain hopeful that if Trump can have a successful second term, that maybe Pence can run on the “Trump third term” platform and win, like Bush 41 did in 1988.

      – Trump may win, but Bush won Reagan’s third term in 1988 because the economy was really good and the country liked Reagan. Trump, outside of Rasmussen, has never polled at or above 50%.

      Could Trump become more popular in his second term? Sure. Is it likely based on how he’s governed/behaved in the first term? Not likely.

    95. Stonewall DW says:

      AOC already thinks that SHE is speaker of the house. If she isn’t given the gavel she and her ilk will go further nuts.

    96. Stonewall DW says:

      Trump needs to use the second term to EDUCATE the electorate. Not sure how he does that, but it needs to be done.

    97. jason says:

      You’ve said multiple times Trump was the only electable Republican in 2016. Well, guess what. Whether Trump wins or loses next Tuesday, he won’t be the nominee in 2024. If not other Republican than Trump appeals to the base Trump excited to the polls in 2016, then logically speaking, the GOP is done as a party in just over 48 months.”

      Convoluted logic and mixing apples and oranges.

      Trump was the only R that could have beaten Hillary in 2016.

      If Trump loses in 2020, and Rs lose the Senate, the Dems will ensure institutional changes that in my view make it virtually impossible for any R comeback, especially since I think think this is a change of system election. If Americans want socialism in 2020, they are not going to reject it in 2024. It will not matter if there is any other R that can put together Trump’s coalition.

      Anybody with half a brain can understand that these are two different concepts.

    98. PresidentPaul! says:

      I think the fed and treasury have merged. Pelosi has temporarily hamstrung mnuchin’s ability to spend with 1.8 trillion sitting idle in the treasury gen fund that needed to be released 2 months ago.

      But i digress. I think politicians will just be buying voters outright in the coming elections, and i think the economy will boom bc of it at least on a short term basis (being 4 years)

      Gop will always lose that contest.

    99. Smack says:

      All Early Voting – Florida

      Oct 24th / 5:32pm

      DEM: 2,418,608 42.85%

      GOP: 2,053,688 36.39%

      Oct 25th / 10:00am

      DEM: 2,468,010 42.71%

      GOP: 2,104,465 36.42%

      Oct 25th / 11:33am

      DEM: 2,481,825 42.65%

      GOP: 2,122,498 36.48%

      Oct 25th / 12:32pm

      DEM: 2,489,727 42.62%

      GOP: 2,133,300 36.51%

      Oct 25th / 1:37pm

      DEM: 2,497,020 42.60%

      GOP: 2,140,586 36.52%

      Oct 25th / 3:12pm

      DEM: 2,518,255 42.56%

      GOP: 2,162,573 36.55%

      DEM have stayed within about 10,000 of votes of GOP this Sunday in All Early Voting..,.which is real poor effort again by the DEMS as they anyways win last 2 Sunday’s in All Early Voting in state of Florida (And North Carolina)

      Something is up……. GOP base is out performing their historical markers in All Early Voting in relation to DEM base in FL, NC & NV using 9 days out from Election Day as its barometer.

    100. PresidentPaul! says:

      In an alternative reality if biden wins but the gop somehow keeps the senate, the democrats are majorly screwed in my opinion bc biden will get austerity in a time of global debt bomb that desperately needs spending and a weaker dollar.

    101. Robbie says:

      The next four years are likely to be very tough for the country. We’ll be dealing with the fallout from the shutdown for years to come. The aftershocks from the 2008 recession lasted for about five years and in 2015 the economy nearly rolled over into recession. There’s no reason to think the 11 million unemployed who weren’t unemployed in February or the 8 million who’ve fallen into poverty as a result of the shutdown won’t weight heavily on the country.

      The idea the country is going to be rip roaring ready to re-elect an 82 year old man or the VP who helped oversee four difficult years for the country is very unlikely. Obama only polled well in the last six months of his presidency because he was being compared to Trump and Clinton. For the vast majority of his presidency, Obama polled at 45% or lower.

    102. mnw says:

      There are lots of potential GOP nominees who would likely govern like Trump, but with a less shrill “tone.” I’m thinking of Hawley*; Cotton; Crenshaw**; maybe Sen. Scott, etc.

      * The Show Me State’s gift to America! And you’re all welcome!

      ** I don’t give a ratzadz that Crenshaw wants to create a register of some kind to keep crazy people from buying guns. Just. Don’t. Care.

    103. Robbie says:

      Stonewall DW says:
      October 25, 2020 at 4:56 pm
      Trump needs to use the second term to EDUCATE the electorate. Not sure how he does that, but it needs to be done.

      – It’s a nice thought, but you can’t teach an old dog new tricks. Trump is who he is and it’s likely his second term would be more hectic than his first because he’ll either have cabinet members who aren’t the cream of the crop, or he’ll have a slew of acting secretaries.

    104. PresidentPaul! says:

      We never recovered from 08. The economy just became financialized.

      If you exclude faang stocks, there has been zero earnings growth since then gfc just miltiple expansion and increased by backs financed by adding more and more corporate debt that is only sustainable at the moment due to ever decreasing interest rates.

      It’s like ww1 morphing into ww2 since it never resolved.

    105. Greymarch says:

      You gotta admit…watching all the tight senate races election night will be a hoot:

      Collins in ME.
      Tillis in NC.
      Did James close the gap in MI?
      Did Lewis close the gap in MN?
      Ernst in IA.
      McSally in AZ – has AZ truly gone purple?

      (I didnt list Gardner because I think he is a goner. I also consider Graham’s seat quite safe.)

      Most would think these GOP senators’ chances are tightly bound to how Trump does. I disagree…

      Every #NeverTrumper in the country will happily vote for any of these GOP candidates. Vice-versa – there are Trumpkins who will not vote for some of these GOP senators. I think each of these senate races will be determined by other factors; the Trump-factor will play a smaller role in the tight senate races.

    106. Tina says:

      Where’s my stimulus?


    107. Sean says:

      The question I ask is are there more Republicans voting early in-person now who would typically vote on election day? Personally, a thought has come to mind – what if I come down with Covid and am not able to make it to the polls on election day? Thought is to figure out when the lines are not bad and just go ahead and do my civic duty.

    108. jason says:

      he GOP is done as a party in just over 48 months.”

      Well, I can tell one way the party is not making any kind of comeback, and that is “trying to regain the suburbs”.

      The suburbs are going to continue to trend left, reflecting the ideology of the people who populate them.

      More and more, the suburbs are being populated by the CEOs that are telling their employees to vote for Biden. They are being populated by college graduates that have been indoctrinated in socialism.

      These people are not “going back to the GOP”, and the reason most are voting for Biden is that they want what he is offering.

      This is an ideological election. DW has a nice daily summary of what this election is about.

      Democratic Party Platform:
      1) Anti-Police
      2) Pro-Looting
      3) Sieze retirement savings
      4) Sieze guns
      5) Pro-illegal immigration
      6) Rural America must bail out the failed Democrat cities
      7) If you are not a person of color, you are a racist whether you want to be or not.
      8) Pro-mutilation of young children
      9) Open prison doors and let them all go free
      10) End the free speech of anyone who dissents
      11) Anti-National Anthem
      12) Pro-Mail out ballots to all people: citizens, non-citizens, living, and dead.
      13) Pro-anarchy
      14) Pro-cancel culture
      15) Pro-rationing of gov’t controlled healthcare
      16) Pro-Force taxpayers to pay off student loan debt instead of the students who took the loans.
      17) Pro-“Green” new deal to devastate the economy with crippling regulations and destroy the energy industry.
      18) Pro-“Republicans are enemies of the state” (so aim your weapons at them carefully)
      19) Endless mob violence unless you vote Democrats into office
      20) Pro-never ending shut downs to keep everyone under government control
      21) Pro-send millions of jobs back to China
      22) Pro-never ending of jobless benefits
      23) Pro-living wage
      24) DC to become 51st state
      25) Anti-Peace in the middle east
      26) Pro-sex with minors
      27) Anti-vaccine until after the election.
      28) Pro-replacing lower court system with lynch mobs.
      29) Pro-Packing the SCOTUS with commies
      30) Promised to BAN fracking
      31) Promise to END THE OIL INDUSTRY

    109. PresidentPaul! says:

      The never trumpers will never be coming back to the GOP.

      They claim to want to punish all GOP candidates to punish the party for choosing and siding w Trump but it won’t end there.

      They are just permanently deranged.

    110. Robbie says:

      There’s no doubt it appears right now the 2024 primary will be a fight between those who think “we need more Trump, but without Trump” and the wing of the party that’s lead by people like Nikki Haley. I’d call it the populists vs. the conservative establishment. Think Cotton vs. Haley or Hawley vs. Rubio.

    111. Stonewall DW says:

      “but you can’t teach an old dog new tricks”

      Sure you can. Reagan was once a Democrat. Trump was once a Democrat. A lot of people pull the lever for Dems because they are ignorant. Teach them.

    112. LewisS says:

      Looking at the Republican gains today in FL early voting, and their gains over the last week, it seems clear the Dems simply frontloaded their votes. I don’t think there’s a good argument that we’re seeing any surge of D voters.

    113. Stonewall DW says:

      Impressed by the numbers in Miami-Dade. And I wonder how many of those are Hillary 2016 voters who voted Trump 2020.

    114. mnw says:

      I’d call it Haley & Rubio are SOL, then. The GOPe ain’t never coming back. Can’t win GOP primaries any longer.

    115. PresidentPaul! says:

      Cotton and hawley are too hawkish in my opinion.

      Haley and rubio are leftists.

    116. Tina says:

      No more Bushes.

      They destroyed the Rs with stupid wars, incompetence, and Souter 2.0.

    117. PresidentPaul! says:

      Trump winning is important, but the senate is way more important at the moment bc keeping the senate stops mmt, court packing, etc.

      And the fed is out of options it needs fiscal stimulus from congress. Austerity would cripple a biden administration, and youd get a four years worse than jimmy carter’s.

    118. mnw says:

      Pres Paul (I’ll stop calling you by your old familiar nickname as a courtesy, OK?):

      As a Paulbot, u r just not typical of the GOP primary electorate. “Too hawkish” is not an argument that will resonate with GOP primary voters.

    119. Waingro says:

      Nate Silver going after Trafalgar today and their crosstabs. The director is not backing down. God I hope they stuff Nate and all these “non partisan” frauds in their lockers 9 dats from now.

    120. jason says:

      The Dems will censor conservative content on social media. That is another reason there will be no “comeback”.

      “Most U.S. adults on Twitter post only rarely. But a small share of highly active users, most of whom are Democrats, produce the vast majority of tweets. The Center’s analysis finds that just 10% of users produced 92% of all tweets from U.S. adults since last November, and that 69% of these highly prolific users identify as Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents. -Pew Research”

    121. lisab says:

      the gop seems to have become the “people who actually have to work for a living and not at a cushy job” party

      if you try to go back to the country club you will lose the trump voters

    122. jason says:

      As a Paulbot, u r just not typical of the GOP primary electorate.”

      The fact Bunu thinks he is a Republican or a conservative is truly hilarious.

    123. Robbie says:

      Stonewall DW says:
      October 25, 2020 at 5:13 pm
      “but you can’t teach an old dog new tricks”

      Sure you can. Reagan was once a Democrat. Trump was once a Democrat. A lot of people pull the lever for Dems because they are ignorant. Teach them.

      – Trump is highly divisive figure. Reagan won 44 states and 49 states in his two presidential elections. Style, tone, and demeanor all matter. Trump very likely can’t do what Reagan did because Trump doesn’t have the same attributes Reagan did. Reagan was an actor who knew how to perform and who had spent decades thinking about and writing about the topics of the day. He was in a much better position to educate the people.

    124. Tina says:

      Bubu loves piglosis stimulus though. Included in the stimulus is checks to illegals, end of voter Id laws, etc.

    125. PresidentPaul! says:

      I dont mind level headed hawkishness. I think pompeo has done a good job, but i dont care for a pointless war with iran eating up another administration.

    126. Tina says:

      Phil, Kampala is off to Texas sometime this week.

    127. JC says:

      DEM: 2,518,255 42.56%

      GOP: 2,162,573 36.55%

      These numbers are insane. Weren’t dems saying they were expecting a 20-25% gap advantage for the EV?

      Am I missing something here? If the final EV gap is anywhere near a 5-10 spread then there is no possible way for Biden to win FL. The GOP will swamp the dems on Election Day probably by a bigger margin than usual due to covid.

    128. Stonewall DW says:

      Trump need not be the only teacher Robbie, he needs a comprehensive plan to help the American people become knowledgeable.

    129. jason says:

      the gop seems to have become the “people who actually have to work for a living and not at a cushy job” party”

      Which is the only way they will be viable as a party.

      Robbie, who represents 5% of the party and thinks “suburbs are the base of the party” mocked me when I said the GOP has to become the “working class party”.

      The GOP has to be become the party of working class Americans, white, black and Hispanic. Not the party of suburban elites, there just are not enough suburban elites that aren’t ideologically left.

      Now obviously the GOP need suburban votes, it even needs urban votes. But a “suburban strategy” as a winning one? No.

    130. Tina says:

      Can we just get through this election?

      2022/2924 can wait.

    131. Stonewall DW says:

      127 – awesome. Pass the popcorn so we can watch the hecklers who will show up.

    132. Robbie says:

      mnw says:
      October 25, 2020 at 5:16 pm
      I’d call it Haley & Rubio are SOL, then. The GOPe ain’t never coming back. Can’t win GOP primaries any longer.

      – Then why did Kobach lose his Senate primary? Why did Kelly Ward lose her primary to McSally in 2018?

      The idea Nikki Haley or Marco Rubio are closet RINOs is laughable, but the fact some might suggest that shows how far to the right the core of the base has moved.

      Win, lose, or draw next week, the Republican Party isn’t going to become a populist party like we see in Europe. There’s a reason Ross Perot and the Reform Party never got off the ground.

      Populism may ebb and flow, but it’s never had consistent staying power.

    133. Robbie says:

      Stonewall DW says:
      October 25, 2020 at 5:33 pm
      Trump need not be the only teacher Robbie, he needs a comprehensive plan to help the American people become knowledgeable.

      – Honestly, do you really think he cares about stuff like that? I don’t.

    134. JC says:

      I guess one explanation for a historically thin EV margin in FL could be that Reps are voting earlier at a higher percentage than usual due to covid, so they would be could be cannibalizing their Election Day vote like dems do. So we could expect a higher GOP margin on Election Day but with a lower turnout.

      Still, a mere 300,000-500,000 vote lead is not enough for dems in FL.

    135. Smack says:

      #128 JC,


      Biden is in trouble in Florida & North Carolina.

      Can Biden stop the bleeding in PA, MI, WI, AZ & NV?

      We shall see…

    136. Tina says:

      With 9 days left, how many more lid days?

      Kampala has been a train wreck. Biden has been equally bad.

      What can China biden do to regain?

    137. Tina says:

      With 9 days left, how many more lid days?

      Kampala has been a train wreck. Biden has been equally bad.

      What can China biden do to regain?

    138. LewisS says:


      I’m wondering if the early vote Republican margin we are seeing (Republicans outvoting Dems by 11.5%) holds on election day.

      It would result in a +350,000 to +400,000 advantage (assuming Indies break evenly) in a 10 million+ total electorate.

    139. dblaikie says:

      I couldn’t believe the crowd that gathered in Maine with such short notice. That shows enthusiasm that is off the charts. Biden better have a great get out the vote effort! Even with one, he is going to get swamped on Nov. 3.

    140. Tina says:

      Donald J. Trump
      Congratulations to Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, who just agreed to adhere to a cease fire effective at midnight. Many lives will be saved. Proud of my team
      & Steve Biegun &
      for getting the deal done!

    141. Bitterlaw says:

      Remember when the Democrats were finished as a national party in 2004? Remember when the GOP was finished after losing 5 Presidential elections in a row?

      Jason knows as much about the suburbs as I do about llamas. I am appalled by this defeatist garbage.

    142. lisab says:


      i would say it is MORE than what is considered the working class, which somewhat implies blue collar

      my hubby is an engineer, definitely works for a living

      but not blue collar.

      the middle-class who get paid very well to sit ata desk all day will be more liberal

      the middle-class who have to actually do things, will be gop

    143. Robbie says:

      Bitterlaw says:
      October 25, 2020 at 5:49 pm
      Remember when the Democrats were finished as a national party in 2004? Remember when the GOP was finished after losing 5 Presidential elections in a row?

      Jason knows as much about the suburbs as I do about llamas. I am appalled by this defeatist garbage.

      – On election night 2004, Peter Jennings said liberal America no longer exists. Two years later, it was back in spades.

      After 1988, Democrats had just lost four of the last five national elections by landslides. They lost 49, 44, 49, and 40 states. Since 1988, they’ve won the popular vote six of the last seven times.

      After 1988, Republicans had won California in 9 of the previous 10 presidential elections. The only time they lost the state was LBJ’s landslide. But on a dime in 1992, the state became a Democrat stronghold and Republicans barely out rank Independents in registration.

    144. PresidentPaul! says:


      They failed bc they didnt run in the GOP primary (trump did)

    145. janz says:

      Like an earlier poster said, the Maine gathering was unbelievably large, especially considering the size of the state and the last minute notice Trump would stop by.

      Looking at the polls being posted, though, it simply becomes a mind-twister, where the stats say one thing and the “people” are enthusiastically saying something else. Even here in loony CA you are seeing people spontaneously creating car and people parades. Snooty Beverly Hills had thousands strolling down the streets, with banners and flags, happily supporting the president. I’ve never seen this kind of involvement before, especially among the laid-back people of this state.

    146. Bitterlaw says:

      Robbie – But the last Republican Presidents before Trump were RINOs. Just ask Tina.

    147. Tina says:

      Does Lord Arsehat concur?

      Quote Tweet

      Nate Silver
      · 22h
      (Also, the early exit polls are often decently predictive, FWIW, though I’d be very very very very careful with them this year when you have to blend in-person + mail voting.)

    148. Tina says:

      The last two R presidents, before trump, were disasters, Bl.

      41 and 43.

    149. Stonewall DW says:

      Hatboro, PA bakery…COOKIE poll

      This bakery is just north of Philly and the area went roughly 55/40 for Hillary in 2016.

      Cookies sold:

      Trump: 16,992
      Biden 3,131

    150. Robbie says:

      Bitterlaw says:
      October 25, 2020 at 6:00 pm
      Robbie – But the last Republican Presidents before Trump were RINOs. Just ask Tina.

      – Now, we don’t run “RINOs” and we usually can’t get past 47% nationally.

    151. Tina says:

      Will lord Arsehat return?

    152. Robbie says:

      Lowell Wicker was a RINO. Nikki Haley isn’t.

    153. Bitterlaw says:

      I agree with Jason that we need “working” people. However, we need to accept and spread the message that plumbers, carpenters, police, farmers AND teachers, lawyers, doctors, etc. are ALSO working people. Why? Because they work.

    154. Pitchaboy says:

      SloJo has no GOTV. Ds have bet on EV. If they don’t go into Election Day without sizeable leads, they lose. They probably get swamped 2.5:1 on 3rd.

    155. LewisS says:


      In addition to Lochel’s cooking poll in Hatboro PA showing a massive Trump win, throw into the mix:

      Buskin’s in Ohio (predicted the winner since 1984) – Trump 56-44%.

      Hanish Bakery in MN (predicted winner for a long time as well) — Trump up like 70-30%

      Paisano’s in FL – Trump up comfortably

      Tamara’s in WI – Trump up comfortably

      These polls aren’t even close. It sounds silly but why isn’t a “poll” where people vote with their $ be more accurate than a silly 1-day, 400 person poll by Siena college?

    156. LewisS says:

      To put a finer point on it, in the case of Buskin’s and Hanish, we’re talking a poll of 15,000 to 20,000 people, not 400.

    157. Robbie says:

      Bitterlaw says:
      October 25, 2020 at 6:07 pm
      I agree with Jason that we need “working” people. However, we need to accept and spread the message that plumbers, carpenters, police, farmers AND teachers, lawyers, doctors, etc. are ALSO working people. Why? Because they work.

      – When I read of hear “working class”, I see a division based on education. If the new populist Republican Party is only going to focus on those without a college education, then the group of available voters is going to get smaller and smaller because more and more people go to college now.

    158. Tina says:

      Good moves for sure, Add the cdc Director too.

      Yashar Ali Elephant
      · 8m
      New: If Trump wins re-election, he’ll move to immediately fire FBI Director Christopher Wray and also expects to replace CIA Director Gina Haspel and Defense Secretary Mark Esper.

      @jonathanvswan @alaynatreene scoop


    159. Sean says:

      Pitch – I hope you are right! And thanks for your service on the front lines.

      Any word on when we are likely to see COVID vaccines made available to our vulnerable?

    160. Hugh says:

      Dems have polls paid for the msm telling them they are winning and have enthusiasm. Trump has people showing up on short notice in the 10s of thousands. Biden has people showing up in the 10s. Maga car rallies stretch for miles. Biden’s can fit on one culdesac. But we can believe the media. We have a multiple adulterous family man winning in nc if you believe the msm polls. It’s so funny how gullible these idiots are. No way Tillis loses. Not a chance. Yet we have to endure these silly polls. Fortunately it is almost over.

    161. jason says:

      PRAVDA is here, Biden not even elected yet.

      You can’t make this sh-t up.

      “An analysis piece in the Washington Post stated journalists should treat the leaked emails allegedly recovered from Hunter Biden’s laptop as a foreign disinformation campaign, even if the claim lacks evidence.

      “Take a step back, and the Russian interference of 2016 holds valuable lessons on what to do and what not to do in 2020,” wrote Thomas Rid in the Washington Post under the paper’s “Perspective” section. “We must treat the Hunter Biden leaks as if they were a foreign intelligence operation — even if they probably aren’t.”

    162. Pitchaboy says:

      Vaccines should be available around January. High risk people will get it first.

    163. jason says:

      I agree with Jason that we need “working” people. However, we need to accept and spread the message that plumbers, carpenters, police, farmers AND teachers, lawyers, doctors, etc. are ALSO working people. Why? Because they work.”

      That is fine.

      But there are a lot more plumbers, carpenters, police, farmers, etc. than lawyers and doctors.

    164. Tina says:

      Is there a time set to confirm Acb?

    165. Robbie says:

      Pitchaboy says:
      October 25, 2020 at 6:22 pm
      Vaccines should be available around January. High risk people will get it first.

      – It’s water under the bridge at this point, but the FDA should have thought out of the box in the Spring.

      Had they conducted challenge trials in May, we’d have known which ones worked. They then could have conducted large safety trials in June, July, and August. There’s a good chance people would already be getting shots.

      In a pandemic like this one, it would have made all the difference.

    166. Sheeple,Jr. says:

      #167- Tina
      7:00 p.m. tomorrow!

    167. Tina says:


      She will be set up to “rehear” the Pa Sc decision that Souter 2.0 choked on.

    168. jason says:

      I am appalled by this defeatist garbage”

      All right!

      If Biden wins, I am glad Bitter will carry on the fight to bring capitalism back to America!

    169. Sean says:

      Thanks pitch – was hoping for news my high risk family members could be vaccinated by Christmas. My dad has congestive heart failure and if he got COVID, he probably would not do well.

    170. mnw says:

      Robbie equates Kobach & Ward with Cotton & Hawley, apparently, & then explains that the primary losses suffered by the FIRST two mean that the LAST two can be beaten in a GOP primary by someone like Rubio or Haley!

      Spot any flaw in this logic?

      (I like Ward & Kobach, btw.)

      The only thing that will prevent the Bush GOPe from taking back the Republican Party is the GOP primary electorate. Thank God for that.

    171. Tina says:


      Chanel Rion OAN
      $3.5 million to Biden’s Rosemont Seneca from Moscow?

      Try again.

      The big question: If FBI KNEW there was a ***FAR BIGGER NUMBER INVOLVED*** why did they only tell Johnson’s committee the number was $3.5mill?

      Hint: 3.5mill was a payoff. What for?

      Stay tuned.

    172. Bitterlaw says:

      For those trying to figure out if it was Brady or Belichek who was more responsible for the Patriots’ success, so far it appears that it was Brady.

    173. Ruru says:

      As the presidency goes – so goes the senate.

      But if it is Biden and an R senate – I think this board is too optimistic. With 51 or even 52, if you don’t think Murkowski or Romney or … won’t give in to the Washington social class or the front page of the nyts – I think you kid yourselves.

      It might hold back an historic flood but the tide will rise mightily.

    174. Bitterlaw says:

      I grade on a curve, Tina. Bush 41 was a better choice than Dukakis and Clinton. Bush 43 was a better choice than Gore and Kerry.

    175. Tina says:

      Grade on a curve.


    176. TGCAtheEXPERT says:

      25 BB

      Since I am the HHR well-reknowned EXPERT of all things except gay culture (see LisaB for that), I’ll give you my EXPERT opinion on OH.

      Ohio was always thought of as a microcosm of the US probably for close to 75 years. The state as a whole is not CA or NY or TX or SC so it’s not significantly weighted to one ideology or another, and it’s not unusual to see Ohio voters gravitate to one candidate or the other in an election year depending on the issues at hand in that election. In other words, what’s most important to them with recent election winners being in the less than 5% range.

      The last election favored Trump because overall, though the MSM coverage made it look like the nation was lurching deeply left, it wasn’t and if you factor out CA and NY, deeply blue states with larger populations, Trump won the rest of the US vote by nearly a few million and that representation showed up in OH too, larger than previous elections clearly probably because of a mix of:

      fear the radical leftward move,
      2-term Dem fatigue,
      giving a billionaire successful businessman a try,and
      likability spread of the candidates

    177. Bitterlaw says:

      I did not know Tina preferred Presidents Dukakis, Clinton
      , Gore and Kerry. Of course, she is not a Republican.

    178. Bitterlaw says:

      Trump was more likable than Hillary? That was an extremely narrow gap.

    179. Robbie says:

      mnw says:
      October 25, 2020 at 6:37 pm
      Robbie equates Kobach & Ward with Cotton & Hawley, apparently, & then explains that the primary losses suffered by the FIRST two mean that the LAST two can be beaten in a GOP primary by someone like Rubio or Haley!

      – That’s not what I did. You said candidates like Haley and Rubio can’t win the primary anymore. I said if that’s the case then why did candidates like Kobach and Ward lose? They were going against candidates that would qualify as GOPe to some of you.

    180. mnw says:

      180 Tg

      Pretty good explanation!

      R u looking for a new gig? Do u plan to remain in the Philly area?

    181. BayernFan says:

      Trump looks like he knows he’s winning while Biden looks like he knows he’s losing. What am I missing?

    182. Tgca says:

      Also, a bit of political trivia, since 1948, OH has voted for the winner of POTUS 16 of 17 times with the only time it did not being in 1960. That’s a 94% accuracy rate.

      For the last straight 13 POTUS elections since 1964, OH voted with the national winner, and thus an important reason political junkies watch OH.

      Now these may be crazy times and this may not be applicable this time but it’s one of the reasons I was hopeful Trump would prevail in 2016, and he did.

    183. Tgca says:

      184 MNW

      I’m not sure what I will do yet. At a minimum, looking to spend the winter in south Florida.

      If things don’t work out, I do have some options though.

      There’s always Bitter’s basement, as I tend to his flowers and vast sweater collection to earn my keep.

      ..or maybe share the barn with Jadon’s llama until I find me some nice Amish guy to take care of me.

      …or apprentice under Wes learning the art of rubbing down dudes for cash.

      We will see over the next few months how things pan out.

    184. BayernFan says:

      Vigo County in Indiana has voted with the winner every time since 1956, and has voted for the winner all but twice since 1888.

      In 2016 it went 55-40 for Trump.

    185. Tgca says:

      182 Bitter

      Hence, I said a combination of things. I think both were not liked much but Hilary was more of a known political creature so the political likability and trust may have been less. I do think Trump’s celebrity and confidence may have given him a bit of edge in the sense some folks would accept him having transitional success over a politician that never accomplished much on her own since her success was always on the coattails of Bill.

    186. Wes says:

      Bush 43 was a better choice than Gore and Kerry.

      This is about as far from the truth as one can get. Republicans didn’t drop to 1959-1981 levels in Congress because GWB was some kind of great President.

    187. Tgca says:


      Well there you go Bayer!

      But I assume that a bigger state over a county might be more representative of the US overtime but size is not everything so who really knows…I’m speaking politically and not as a gay man on the latter clearly.

    188. BayernFan says:

      I meant since 1952

    189. janz says:

      Trump has an audacious optimism, mixed in with the ability to engage in a one-on-one type interaction with a huge audience. I find myself in awe of him, even when I cringe at some of his rhetoric. He is so unlike any of his predecessors, and now people have become not only used to his outrageous behavior, but even relish it in contrast to someone as same-old-same-old, boring Biden.

      I can’t help but believe Trump will win re-election.

    190. mnw says:

      185 BF


      VERY bad look for Biden today– cutting off the local Wilkes-Barre TV reporter who tried to ask him about Hunter: “That’s a LIE!”

      Biden looked like a grumpy, bad-tempered OLD get-off-my-lawn! kinda fella! Nice contrast with Mr. Orange, who appears to be having the most fun he’s ever had with his pants on.

    191. SweatyToothedMadman says:

      #88, horse hockey! Pence is DOA in 2024. He’s exciting as a mashed potato sandwich.

      Gov. Noem and Sen. Scott are the winning ticket in 2024.

    192. Pitchaboy says:

      I have never seen any politician more exhilarating and irritating, sometimes at the same time, like DJT.

    193. Tgca says:

      This is very touching to see this dad reunited with his 18 yo college son after 16 years in prison after Trump granted him clemency.


    194. Florida Guy says:

      Voted yesterday. Most EVs we met were Trumpies. One voter told me he planned to attend a rally Sunday and then counter a weak Biden rally (in an area where the effort is futile).

      Central Florida is going hard and heavy Trump.


    195. Tina says:

      There are Rs crossing over. /s

      David Chapman
      This poll has Democrats with a 7 pt early vote lead in Texas. Biden with a 4 pt early vote lead.

      Currently, Texas is currently R+12 according to TargetSmart & R+16 According to NBC.
      The Dallas Morning News poll has Biden with only 6% of the GOP vote, so the poll is garbage

    196. Bitterlaw says:

      Wes- You voted for Bush over both Gore and Kerry. You own hisPresidency as much as I do.

    197. Tina says:

      Is this true? 9 days of lids?

      JT Lewis
      Joe Biden says he won’t do any more in person campaigning for the remaining 9 days.
      1:56 PM · Oct 25, 2020

    198. Justin says:

      Hoping for some positive news from Baris in the Rust Belt polling. Has he given any indication of how it is looking so far?

      I’m trying not to lose faith, but I went from pretty optimistic a week ago and feeling like we had momentum, to feeling pretty pessimistic about our chances now. I’ve voted and gotten five non-Trump voters from 2016 to vote for him already this year, so I have done my part.

    199. Wes says:

      Those are two votes I will never stop regretting, Bitter. They were easily the worst votes I ever cast.

    200. Tina says:

      I went from optimistic fo more optimistic of a Biden win.


    201. Hugh says:

      Justin. Pathetic. All you got?

    202. Phil says:

      Nothing out of Baris on his current polling.

      You won’t have to wait much longer, however. He and Robert Barnes are going to lay it all out tomorrow on their What Are The Odds podcast tomorrow afternoon. Baris has promised the lowdown on his current rust belt polling and Robert Barnes says he will give his final betting picks for each of the swing states, Senate races….over 100 races total. Given his excellent track record I will take what he says very seriously. He puts his money (lots of it BTW) where his mouth is and although he leans right he says when it comes to betting he isn’t partisan. Put his money on Clinton, Bush, Obama, and Trump over the last twenty five years so he knows what he’s doing. Doesn’t hedge and gives his detailed reasons backed by data. He jokes he is only partisan to green.

      The only clue so far on anything they might be revealing tomorrow is that they both have continued to bash Nate Silver on twitter today. I will take that as a good sign.

      That podcast is definitely worth more than a look.

    203. Baris says:

      “I want to believe Baris (I donated to him)”

      Excellent, Sean. You are a true patriot!


      I’m ready to do any poll you want and I’ll show you any result you want. Just name the state and the result. Oh and send a few bucks please?

      Let’s set the right narrative this last week.

      Send money.

    204. Phil says:


      I don’t understand his tweet. What is he saying?

    205. Annie says:

      198. Florida Guy…Two of my Missouri cousins and their families moved to Florida in the past two years – Both voted yesterday with their wives in the Orlando area, casting 4 votes for Trump.

    206. Gordon Allen says:

      Bayernfan: I’ve never seen it so dramatic; as you say Trump looks super confident and enthusiastic; Biden almost the opposite. Can they both be wrong or acting?
      BTW when was the last time a Republican won Florida and lost the election? Trump will win Florida.

    207. Dylan says:

      The competing narratives are locked in Its either a Biden landslide or a trump win (either landslide or narrow ) The talking halitosis heads have nothing new to say

    208. Wes says:

      A Republican last won Florida while losing nationally in 1992.

      Last time before that was 1960.

    209. Pitchaboy says:

      EV: WI: R +6. MI: R +2. Per NBC site.

    210. Ruru says:

      But here’s the issue with reading the Florida tea leaves – I firmly believe trump wins Florida, I strongly believe he wins by a good bit larger margin than 2016 – 3% to 4% vs 1.2% in 2016.

      But, of the core four states (Ohio, Florida, Iowa and nc) – I expect it is the only state his margin is larger.

    211. Gordon Allen says:

      How about a Republican winning both Florida and Ohio and losing? Trump will win both.

    212. Tina says:

      So, if he wins all core states, then what?

    213. Gordon Allen says:

      If Trump wins Florida by 4+ he’ll win a landslide. THAT I would put real money on.

    214. Pitchaboy says:

      Not sure how he loses MI and WI unless a boat load of D pop up on 3rd or indies desert him big time.

    215. Boog says:

      201 – that would be shocking if it is true. All but conceding that their efforts to campaign are significantly and negatively hurting their chances. The negative optics must be killing their internals.

      Biden putting a lid on the next 9 days is near enough to admitting they are toast. That is why I still don’t think it is true. Or maybe they know more and worse bombshells will be dropping from the “laptop from hell”.

    216. Gordon Allen says:

      Mckinley campaigned more in 1900. Hard to see how this doesn’t solidify the notion Biden is not physically up to the job. Am I missing something?
      I know he went off the rails this weekend ” campaigning”, but WOW if that’s true!

    217. Chicon says:

      Hi, Pitch. I’m curious how you conclude that (post 219) about Wisconsin. Modeled party for TargetSmart has the D’s up 40-37. There are an unusually high number of voters they can’t get a score on to guess which party. I suspect Big Orange wins that group, but by how much?

      In addition, if you sort by urbanicity, rural voters make up a higher percentage of early voters than in 2016, and suburban voters are a lower percentage. Smells tight to me, so I’m curious how you got to your opinion.

    218. Chicon says:

      222 – appears to me that the headline misrepresents the content of the article, which says the lid is for the day and he has no events scheduled right now. It doesn’t say the won’t be heading out again.

    219. Pitchaboy says:

      Chicon: I got the numbers off NBC site. Targetsmart is a load of crap. To their credit NBC gives you raw numbers and lets you decide. In both these states more R have asked for ballots and returned them. My read is DJT SHOULD hold them. Not sure how you have 12 point Slojo leads in polls.

    220. SweatyToothedMadman says:

      #223, Biden’s not campaigning because he doesn’t need to — the fix is in. Dems will manufacture enough votes to steal PA, MI, WI, MN, and NC.

      It stinks but nothing will prevent massive vote fraud fueling a Dem victory. Not the first time a presidential election has been stolen.

    221. BayernFan says:

      Nixon in 1960 won both Florida and Ohio and lost the election anyway.

    222. Tina says:

      Chicon, see 201.

    223. Chicon says:

      Pitch, my understanding is that NBC gets their data from TargetSmart (with the original modeling). Wisconsin does not do registration by party, so nobody knows what party a particular voter is associated with. At least as far as I know.

    224. BayernFan says:

      If Biden is running away with it….. whether legit or a fix…. why is he so ticked off? Why isn’t he out there the last week with bigger crowds and being happy and excited?

    225. mnw says:


      So… what is Vigo County doing NOW? Do u have any info? Tea leaves? Anecdotal reports to share?

    226. hugh says:

      joe has had a lid on for a month. going to speak to 15 people once every three days for 30 minutes is as good as a lid. When he does venture out all he can do is scream and walk around aimlessly, then take maybe a couple questions where if they ask him anything of substance he yells. He can sit home or campaign and fire up 15 supporters who cares. Yet the msm tells us his voters are motivated. lots of evidence there… but the polls!!! only morons believe these polls.

    227. Pitchaboy says:

      This election polling is the battle of two models. University pollsters have used the metric of “new voters” and generously interpreted turnout. Trafalgar and Baris pay more attention to voter registration changes. We are going to find out which model wins.

    228. hugh says:

      while I am on a good rant. how did souls to the polls go. the dems got out voted 26K in person votes. lots of vbm got recorded, but it was a net 11k for republicans on souls to the polls day. What does that mean? it means blowout. its ovah in florida.

      Chump chump. Awesome. in a week we can add nc and az to the list and then we only need one

    229. Phil says:

      I happened to see Biden’s speech he made from Pa yesterday.

      Geez, the guy was mad as hell throughout it. Very weird. Yelling all the way through.

      I couldn’t figure out what his deal was. Angry guy.

    230. Chicon says:

      Mnw, DRI in Vigo in 2016 early voting was 63/22/14 according to TS. So far this year it is 34/35/31. How they’re voting? Who knows, but those splits look good to me.

    231. Pitchaboy says:

      Either SloJo is a cantankerous demented old bastard or he knows he has been kicked. Or as BL likes to say: both can be true.

    232. SweatyToothedMadman says:

      #228, another stolen election. JFK stole Illinois and LBJ stole Texas.

      Stolen elections are an American tradition.

    233. MrVito says:

      Vigo is being ‘Vigo’-ish

      Modeled EV
      D 7142
      R 7331
      I 6647

    234. Tgca says:

      231 BF

      JFK won 1960 election by margin of about 100K votes and it’s still widely believed that Chicago Mayor Daley and LBJ helped him steal votes in IL and TX by extreme narrow margins that if he did not win those states Nixon would have won the electoral votes instead.

    235. Smack says:

      Who was the last person to lose Florida, Ohio and Texas and still won enough electoral votes to win the Presidency?

      Joe Biden is going down.

    236. Bitterlaw says:

      Gordon – What you are missing is that this election is not about Biden. It never was. It is a fight over keeping or dumping Trump. Biden is irrelevant now.

    237. mnw says:

      I don’t think that “JFK stole Illinois.” The Daley machine stole the Cook County State’s Attorney race that year, because they cared BIGTIME about who could bring indictments for corruption. But analysis of the POTUS vote indicates that the machine didn’t care enuf about POTUS to cheat on that race.

      Daley once said, “The President can only give us a handful of federal jobs.”

      I rely on Mike Royko’s book “Boss” for this analysis. Royko is particularly good when he explains the State’s Atty race. The GOP had someone clean & popular, so Daley nominated a DEM who was just as clean & popular.

      Pendergast in KC supported Truman for the same reason– clean.

    238. Robbie says:

      Joe Biden is clearly petrified of getting coronavirus. That’s the only reason why I think he rarely leaves his basement and if often wearing two masks at once.

      If he wins, it is going to be one strange transition and first year or so to his presidency. After the inauguration, we may not see him near another person for months and months.

    239. jaichind says:

      242. Hughes 1916 was the one that came the closest. He lost OH FL and TX to Wilson and would have won the election had he not lost CA narrowly due to a GOP civil war between the “regulars” and ex-Bull Moose faction in the state.

    240. Justin says:

      Does Biden even want to be president? At this point it’s hard to argue he has any actual desire. He never leaves his basement and he sounds angry when he does.

      Sadly, he still has a really good shot of winning.

    241. Chicon says:

      Bitter – the country is deciding whether Trump or Biden will be the next President. Many see re-elections as a two-part process – first is whether we want to dump the current one, and second do we want to dump the current one for THAT one? So, imo, Biden is relevant.

      Regarding your niece, just wanted to point out that what you are going through is pretty typical. Almost typed “normal”, but that seems to trivialize the matter. Keep moving forward. You are valued here, even if you are often wrong….

    242. mnw says:

      Richard Daley was very careful about who he would risk going to prison for. JFK didn’t make the cut.

      Daley’s machine did its best for JFK, but stopped short of fraud.

    243. Scooterboy says:

      Hard to see how Biden wins PA if these numbers are correct.

      M. Joseph Sheppard – “ This is the shift of Blacks-stay at homes on top of this;

      “NYT; Biden the backing of 73% of Philadelphia voters, down from 83% for Clinton 2016. Trump was supported by 24% of Philadelphians, nine points ahead of his exit poll numbers in 2016.”

    244. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      245. “Joe Biden is clearly petrified of getting coronavirus. That’s the only reason why I think he rarely leaves his basement.

      There is another reason. Biden cannot find the door.

    245. Phil says:

      Barnes just retweeted tonight’s Nate Silver tweet that 538 had Texas tied at 47.5 to 47.5.

      Barnes retweeted it with the comment “this won’t age well”

      On a daily basis Barnes mocks Silver. Thinks he’s a hack in the pocket of Democrats and says so on a daily basis.

    246. Scooterboy says:

      This also could be the reason Miami Dade is looking good for the GOP.

      If it’s happening in Philly, it’s probably happening elsewhere.

    247. Bitterlaw says:

      We just disagree. I think that the anti-Trump voters will accept ANYBODY to get rid of Trump.

    248. Phil says:

      They will need to steal it, Scooter. Let’s see if Barrett closes that door midweek when the Supreme Court rules on the Pa election law allowing voting three days after the election. We are going to find out real quick if Barrett is going to be another Roberts.

    249. mnw says:


      Susan Collins stated explicitly, 41 minutes ago, that she would vote NO on ACB tomorrow.

      Back to you.

      Glad I didn’t “bet the house” on a straight party line vote, as you suggested.

    250. Ridin' with Biden says:

      Ruh roh. Mr. 50 Cent un-endorses Mr. Trump.

      “Fu*k Donald Trump, I never liked him . . . For all I know he had me set up and had my friend Angel Fernandez killed but that’s history. LOL.”

    251. Bitterlaw says:

      Phil – Do you ever think a Republican loses without fraud?

    252. Robbie says:

      SanDiegoCitizen says:
      October 25, 2020 at 10:12 pm
      245. “Joe Biden is clearly petrified of getting coronavirus. That’s the only reason why I think he rarely leaves his basement.

      There is another reason. Biden cannot find the door.

      – Ha! I was trying to give him a bit of credit.

    253. Chicon says:

      Earlier someone pointed out that – according to the joeisdone site – the GOP has a huge amount of supervoters left, and the Dems had -67k left. This seemed a tad odd, because you can’t have a negative number. For example, if I asked how many black voters haven’t voted yet and you said -378 that wouldn’t be possible, eh?

      Anyway, I clicked on the link provided on the joeisdone page and I can’t find a negative number. Maybe I’m missing something. It did say that there have been about 8k more Dem supervoters so far than registered GOP supervoters.


    254. Phil says:


      Why, do you ask

      You live in the Philly area a have had a front row seat a to what gos on there. The legal cases and convictions aren’t exactly a secret.

    255. PresidentPaul! says:

      Trump ad during walking dead


    256. Bitterlaw says:

      As I have said for years, Philadelphia fraud is almost always in Democrat primaries. The Dems have such an overwhelming edge they they don’t need to cheat in general elections.

    257. PresidentPaul! says:

      If it was down to one vote collins would probably vote yes.

      She is the only blue state republican.

    258. Phiil says:

      I see. Democrats are willing to stuff the ballot boxes only in primary elections?

      They don’t and won’t in a general election? That’s where they draw the ethical line, huh?

      You serious Clark?

      For your reading pleasure Google Congressman Ozzie Myers or perhaps Domenick DeMuro just to get started.

    259. Phil says:

      ….but, hey, I feel a lot better about an up and up vote in Philly now that I know the Democratic machine has a hands off policy when it comes to general elections.

    260. MrVito says:

      263 Bull. Watch election night 2016 and see how many times Chris Matthews said his source said they could squeeze X more votes out of Philly.

    261. PresidentPaul! says:

      If anomaly is too extreme in philly the goo leg can void the vote, and give the delegates to trump.

      They can only cheat so much before it becomes undeniable.

    262. MrVito says:

      Oh wait, there’s more!

      Oh wait, there’s more!

      Yeah sure.

    263. jason says:

      Gordon – What you are missing is that this election is not about Biden. It never was. It is a fight over keeping or dumping Trump. Biden is irrelevant now.”

      ZZzzzzz…..simplistic drivel.

      I would agree it is not about Trump OR Biden, however.

      It is about whether America wants the nanny state agenda the Dems are offering or not.

      We will soon find out.

    264. Tina says:

      Steve Guest
      · 44m
      Joe Biden confuses President Trump with George W. Bush: “because of who I’m running against…George, ah, George”

    265. jason says:

      This is an ideological election.

      Trump and Biden are in it for the ride.

    266. jason says:

      As I have said for years, Philadelphia fraud is almost always in Democrat primaries. The Dems have such an overwhelming edge they they don’t need to cheat in general elections.”

      I think given how close 2016 was, they WOULD need to cheat in general elections.

    267. Phil says:

      They have every incentive in this one.

    268. PresidentPaul! says:


      World economic summit proposes getting rid of all homeownership.

    269. Tina says:

      I really don’t think it will be 9 more lid days.

      I felt that he would call a lid today, and did.

      Reason being was because of his anger and odd behavior yesterday.

      Walking the stage while,Jill was speaking.

      Jill trying to get his attention.

      Weird sheot.

    270. Tina says:

      Philadelphia fraud is going in now.

      They won’t allow anybody from the Trump campaign to observe.

      There is a dispute in court now about this.

    271. PresidentPaul! says:

      No meat eating by 2030!

    272. Tina says:

      4 years ago there was a poll indicating that trump would lose Texas to her Thighness.

      They are repeating the same polls and narratives.

    273. Gatorjoel says:

      Looks like Trump cratering on predic it in all swing states. Now behind in NC and more behind in other states, reflecting the inevitable reality of his impending defeat! Can’t wait to party on this board next Tuesday night. And can’t wait until the Dems pack the court too.

    274. Tina says:


      “Biden’s Staff Told Us He Misspoke” – Joe Biden Confuses His Agenda in 60 Minutes Interview so His Staff Steps in to Correct the Record (VIDEO)


    275. PresidentPaul! says:


      Further bitcoin breakout? We know from the past two bull markets when it goes up, it goes up, and at least the past there arent even pauses for ppl to jump on board.

    276. Scooby77 says:

      That is weird. Why is predictit showing such a swing to Biden tonight? Friday night NC, FL and the usuals were all red. AZ was super tight. Tonight there’s been movement to Biden. Is it because of the bogus polls released today?

    277. jason says:

      Kamala blames Pence for the fact she is the most liberal senator.

      “So the only thing Harris could do when confronted by 60 Minutes’ Norah O’Donnell on her far-left voting record was to pretend like Mike Pence made the whole thing up, smile and laugh nervously.

      “You’re considered the most liberal United States senator,” O’Donnell told the California extremist.

      “I, somebody, said that, and actually it was Mike Pence on the debate stage,” Harris responded as she burst into nervous laughter.

      “Well, actually, the non-partisan GovTrack has rated you as the most liberal senator,” O’Donnell told a shell-shocked Harris. “You supported the Green New Deal. You supported Medicare for All. You supported legalizing marijuana. Joe Biden doesn’t support those things, so are you gonna bring the policies, those progressive policies that you supported as senator into a Biden administration?”

    278. Ridin' with Biden says:

      Mr. 50 Cent pulled his support of Mr. Trump.

      Trafalgar polls turned out to be made up.

      Continued amazing early voting figures.

      Great day for Mr. Biden.

    279. Gatorjoel says:

      283-it is because Trump is toast! Smart people who are putting their money where their mouth is realize this is not the 2016! You have a president who has negligently allowed almost 300,000 to die, has cratered the economy, incited racial hatred and simply does not care for anything or anyone but himself. I can’t imagine why he is going to lose!!

    280. jason says:

      Actually Biden is down a point. Minor changes.

    281. jason says:

      Heh, trolls are nervous…

    282. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      Dems will be campaigning in Texas next week! You all said if Texas was in play the campaigns would be going there. Well, its happening. Going for Texas at this point is just about kicking you all while down. I’ve been telling you for weeks that there would be a Biden landslide 🙂


    283. jason says:

      Ma, some good news!

      “To the relief of Texans across the state, Governor Greg Abbott has signed a law prohibiting escaping Californians from voting after they move to Texas. Experts say this will prevent the happy and prosperous slice of heaven from sliding into the endless despair and crushing poverty of leftist policy.

      “Yeah, all you weirdo Californians are welcome to partake with us in this blessed land,” said Chuck Dillon, a local accountant who dresses like a cowboy. “Bring your music and your little girly men and your avocado toast, but please leave your godless heathen communism in California where it belongs!”

    284. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      Yes, the right’s favorite pollster, Trafalgar, got caught. Embarrassing for them. Anyone with half a brain could have told you they were just making numbers up at this point to try and keep their followers happy. Just setting you all up for a terrible Tuesday. Brace yourself now.

    285. Scooterboy says:

      David Chapman-
      CNBC poll found 53% of Biden supporters have already voted, while only 25% of Trump supporters have voted.
      Dems have banked 26.4M early votes. Clinton got 65.8M votes. 53% of 65.8M is 34.9M votes. Democrats are 8.5M votes short of the mark.
      The GOP have banked 22M early votes. 25% of 65.8M is 16.5M votes. The Republicans are 5.5M votes ahead of the mark. Assume this CNBC poll is accurate, Biden is headed for brutal defeat.

    286. Phil says:

      Kamala Harris is coming to Texas?

      Wow. That’s a really really major play alright. Perhaps if she was accompanied by some actual advertising. What do you think?

      Kamala is a real power play.

      I’ll give you a little hint. If they thought Texas was even remotely possible, they wouldn’t send in Kamala. She’s the last person they’d send to a state like Texas.

      Go to bed, basement boy.

    287. The Godfather says:

      Gatordweeb is an idiot. The Trafalgar polls of Mi, Fl, and Az were fake polls. Even Nate Silver took them down. This even happened to Gravis earlier in the year. The only poll Trafalgar released today was for North Carolina with Trump leading.

    288. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      Why was he defending them until he was called out for the ludicrous cross tabs? Sad!

    289. Tina says:

      Kampala was supposed to go to Texas last week.

      But she was uh busy.

      Go waste time there.

    290. mnw says:

      Jill Biden has campaigned in TX recently too. So what? And Biden has spent a lot of money on TV ads in TX, for several moths.

      What exactly is supposed to have changed in TX?

    291. PresidentPaul! says:

      World economic summit seems to want to go back to a feudalism system where the eco-technocrats rent everything to everyone as serfs.

    292. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      You all predicted the polls would “tighten” the two weeks before the election to reflect closer to what the reality is. Well, averages are showing Biden is still up double digits in the national average and high single digits in the Midwest as well as leads in Florida, NC, and AZ. Where is the tightening you all called? More terrible prognostication by the brain trust here.

      What tune are you all whistling past the graveyard?

    293. Phil says:

      Tell us, were their polls of Pa, Michigan, and Florida from 2016 made up as well? If so they really got lucky – to the one tenth of one percent in Pa and within half a point in Wisconsin. One point in Michigan.

      Ask Senator Nelson about their made up numbers in Florida in 2018. Whoops. He aint senator any longer is he? Same with Governor Gillam.

      Go to bed.

    294. PresidentPaul! says:

      Pretty sure most of the Biden voters think they will get to be eco-technocrats ordering trump voters around but most of them actually get to be the serfs.

    295. mnw says:

      Only a fool could look at the EV in FL & proclaim that “Biden is still up in FL!”

      Maybe it’s time to start looking at the actual data, instead of the msm polls?

    296. Phil says:

      The “averages” of a bunch of college polls? Would that include Quinnipiac and their Biden double digit leads in Florida and Pennsylvania? Marist? That’s my favorite.

      I demand better trolls!!

    297. Phil says:

      mnw, maybe now he is ready to take you up on that Missouri bet where you spotted him 12 points.

      I’m sure he’ll be getting back to you any day now on that one.

    298. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      You can’t always get what you want, but…you get what you need.

    299. Ridin' with Biden says:

      Mr. Silver turned out to be correct about Trafalgar’s made-up polls.

      The owner of Trafalgar claims his Twitter was hacked. This after he spent time defending the polls.

      It’s best to toss all Trafalgar polls now. They are just making up numbers. They may end up being right but it won’t be because they performed sound polling.

      How unfortunate.

    300. Rudy G says:

      I’m working on a big bombshell! Give me just another day or two and you it will blow this election wide open.

    301. Scooterboy says:

      Seems to me you wouldn’t need to plan something like this if Biden is supposedly going to win in a landslide?

      ShutDown DC plans direct action/civil-resistance following the election in DC if President Trump tries to “steal the election.” Calls its @NPS permit irrelevant & now plans for 10k strong demonstration Nov3 at Black Lives Matter Plaza to continue thru week

    302. Rudy G. says:

      Whatever you do, do NOT watch that creepy guy Borat’s new movie. Two thumbs down.

    303. Phil says:


      So Biden is calling out his leftist brown shirts for the day after the election.

      Why? He’s cruising to a landslide victory. MR Silver said so.

    304. Scooterboy says:

      Instead of planning to celebrate the day after Election Day, they instead are planning their first riot.

    305. eriepa says:

      Amazing how Rudy G, Riden With Biden and Gatorbillyjoel all appear at the same time. Talk about fake polls how about fake trolls.

    306. dblaikie says:

      Crosstabs? Troll (I believe you are all one person) these college polls and media polls have samples that are +10 or more dem. They don’t bother to try and poll in strong GOP rural districts. And these Gravis monstrosities are only one day polls. Now please understand this. Trump is doing really well with Black men. And he is doing better with Hispanics. In short Trafalgar’s and Rasmussen’s crosstabs make more sense than Silver’s A rated pollsters who don’t have any idea about the electorate.

      Now about Harris going Texas. Who cares? The Biden Campaign can’t even 100 people to a rally so it doesn’t seem to me to make much difference where they have them. The hard truth you have to face is that Harris is a terrible drag on the ticket. They need to send her to safe places where it doesn’t matter how many voters she turns off.

      And you have a guy on the top of the ticket who is afraid to come out and face any question about his knowledge of his son’s corruption. But more than that they have to keep him inside to prevent even more damage with his dementia. He already caused great harm to the dem effort with his boast that he was going to phase out oil. They need to keep him inside if they have any hope at all!

      And finally not a word from you about Trump going to New Hampshire, Maine and Nevada. Forgive but aren’t those states that Hilary won?

      Gator I wonder if you suffer from dementia yourself. Maybe that is why you are ridin with Biden. Perhaps that is why you have an unhealthy fixation on Rudy.

    307. chris says:

      Trafalgar is 90% accurate in called races over the last 5 years

    308. Wes says:

      Bitterlaw says:
      October 25, 2020 at 10:22 pm
      Phil – Do you ever think a Republican loses without fraud?

      Well, Jason thinks George Allen lost because of fraud. It had exactly nothing to do with the fact that Allen, starting with macaca, spent a full three months giving people every reason imaginable to vote against him. Not a thing. It was all fraud.

    309. BayernFan says:

      Twitter rumors that hunter is dead

    310. Sean says:

      Wouldn’t wish that on anyone, Bayern.

    311. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      When looking at early votes, always remember:
      “The early bird gets the worm, but the 2nd mouse gets the cheese.”

    312. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      313. “Amazing how Rudy G, Riden With Biden and Gatorbillyjoel all appear at the same time.”

      Its when their work shift begins; and it may be actually one person using multiple screen names.

    313. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      313. Best to just ignore them.

    314. Annie says:

      As for the trolls…
      GatorBJ is from Florida and now lives in Dallas, TX… He is an ideologue, and so, believes all the garbage polls and leftist dogma at face value. Gator’s in denial of any facts that challenge his viewpoint that he gleans from Twitter and MSNBC. He rejects facts. He’s naive. Ridin’ with Biden is snarky… affected, pretentious. Living in Arizona? My guess is RwB is either a woman or gay, likes to get creative with various handles, tries awfully hard to be clever…but, is just a really bad writer. “Ridin’ with Biden” is a term most often used by older house fraus who don’t have a lot going on in their lives.

    315. Ridin' with Biden says:

      Has Phyllis been banned. I sure hope so. She was so vile and disgusting.

    316. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      By the way, this is the latest Trafalgar poll, which shows Trump’s lead is increasing.

      #2020Election #BattlegroundState #NCpoll conducted Oct 20-22 shows a growing Trump lead:
      48.8% @realDonaldTrump
      46.0% @JoeBiden
      2.3% @Jorgensen4POTUS
      1.2% all others,

      Robert C. Cahaly
      As stated multiple times previously. If a so called “poll” isn’t posted on our
      social media or website, treat it as if it’s our work, at your own risk. Also, every legit Trafalgar #poll has our cover page and graphs. When you get fooled you look foolish.

    317. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      Robert C. Cahaly Retweeted
      Recently, the chief pollster at the Trafalgar Group told Sean Hannity on Fox News that their polling numbers suggest that President Trump is set to win the national election on November 3 off the back of “hidden” supporters. Robert Cahaly, who heads up a polling group that…

      Oct 24
      Replying to
      …was one of just two that accurately predicted a Trump win in 2016, said that pollsters are oversampling Democrats and not getting honest answers from conservative voters.

    318. Annie says:

      326. “…not getting honest answers from conservative voters.”

      That is what I have heard for several months now from many Trump voters on various sites. They brag that they tell pollsters that they support Biden and down-ballot Democrats, just to deliberately “mess with the polls.”

    319. John says:

      American Suburban Mom Jack-o-lantern
      Replying to
      rumor that Hunter ODed and Joe Biden is at hospital. some saying hunter is dead.

    320. Sheeple,Jr. says:

      joeisdone.com has expanded from Florida into No. Carolina. Looking good for the good guys. Wondrous!


    321. Official Trump is Done Countdown says:

      9 days

    322. PresidentPaul! says:

      Hunter foot job video markings match natalie biden


    323. PresidentPaul! says:

      Anons warn that what has come out is just a drop with


      Read the last few lines of this

    324. Brion says:

      Come on Michigan, Trump win there will be great

    325. Brion says:

      Funny with the question marks no ideas?

    326. George says:

      ? and The Mysterians must be checking in…….96 Tears now playing for the Dems

      From Politico of all places:

      Florida Republicans are pouring out of the trenches.

      After weeks of Democrats outvoting them by mail, Republican voters stormed early voting precincts in person this week, taking large bites out of their opponents’ historic lead in pre-Election Day ballots.

    327. Gordon Allen says:

      Bitterlaw: What you’re missing, because you hate Trump,is that most Democrat’s HATE ALL Republicans running for President,and thus standing in their way. No matter who the Republican candidate is,or will be,the media will eviscerate him/ her and the Democrat base will follow-up with hate.Its NOT just Trump.

    328. Brion says:

      Great news on Florida!

    329. mnw says:

      323 Annie

      That’s perceptive. You’re a good observer. Fwiw, I had formed some of the same impressions of the trolls that you did.

    330. PresidentPaul! says:

      Yoooo hunter biden cut coke with malia obama’s credit card and then broke her back? 2020 wild


    331. Sheeple,Jr. says:

      Now here is a poll for you. The Atlanta Newspaper/ UGA show both the Presidential and Senate races tied in Georgia. How so,you ask?— Biden leads with Independents 60/10!!!


    332. PresidentPaul! says:

      Twitter chatter about breaking news coming today is making me antsy for the world to wake up.

    333. PresidentPaul! says:

      More news of deflation in Germany out this morning. It’s the fate that awaits the USA without nonstop cocaine/stimulus

    334. Sheeple,Jr. says:

      The gossip,and there are photos, of Hunter Biden doing coke with Malia Obama and then banging her, doggie-style. I have viewed the photos.

    335. PresidentPaul! says:

      I think the credit card picture is probably real. Not sure about the rest of that.

    336. big e says:

      No need to release that crap. It will only make Obama and Biden more sympathetic. People will say Trump went too far. stick to the corruption.

    337. PresidentPaul! says:


      Ali G (Borat) interviews Donald Trump

    338. dblaikie says:

      Sheeple I have to say I thought you must have been mistaken but you are right, they have Trump 10% with Independents. Talk about a bogus crosstab!

      It took some nerve from old Nate to complain about Trafalgar’s crosstabs when we have this kind of crap going on with Silver’s beloved College Polls.

    339. Smack says:

      While it is true the Democrats will only early voting on Sunday before Election Day…the next 5 days GOP will own early voting in North Carolina, Florida, Nevada…etc…

      How much will GOP voters own the week?

      Let’s find out.

      Buckle up.

    340. DW says:

      So with the souls to the polls a bust yesterday in FL, what’s the only option left for Biden there? Just stuff the ballot box with votes using the voter fraud organization Biden boasted about?

    341. hugh says:

      joe is done in NC is currently not correct. I just looked at the NC stats as of 4:40 AM and the actual spread is 328996 versus the 354K on joe is done. His data was posted a couple hours earlier. So on Sunday the dems picked up 1100, so souls to the polls was a flop in NC. If you do some google searches in NC they tried a lot harder with souls to the polls than FL. Also, NC has a much large black population. By end of week NC should be solid for Trump.

    342. LewisS says:

      Looking at the raw NC data at Targetsmart…

      In NC’s biggest D counties (Wake, Durham, Orange, Mecklenburg, etc.) total early vote turnout is just about where total 2016 turnout was for these counties– about 39% of the entire NC electorate.

      So there’s no surge of early vote in the big D counties as compared to the deep R counties.

    343. LewisS says:

      Further on NC:

      As others have noted, early vote turnout among blacks is down (when comparing their share of the early vote versus their share of the 2016 electorate).

      And early vote turnout in deep R counties is just about exactly the same as their turnout in 2016.

      So, again, we’re not seeing a surge of votes coming from the cities or suburbs as compared to more rural areas.

    344. Sheeple,Jr. says:

      Good news from Pennsylvania via Trip Gabriel at the NY Times:

      “Some concerns for Biden in PA polling, including in Philly, where he’s running 10 points behind Hillary Clinton’s support in 2016 and Trump is ~9 points ahead of where he was four years ago.”

    345. Sheeple,Jr. says:

      More from Trip Gabriel about the Pennsylvania race:

      “lso, Trump is 9 points behind the support he had in 2016 in the Philly suburbs. But Biden is only 3 points better than Hillary Clinton’s suburban support.”

    346. DW says:

      And of course there is no path in PA if those Philly numbers are real. But if real, will those voters actually get counted? Or will they get replaced by concerned poll watchers?

    347. DW says:

      Baris found Trump getting the same from the Philly suburbs, even flipping Chester County

    348. LewisS says:

      Looking at Wisconsin:

      In early voting, the WOW counties are early voting about 2% above their 2016 voting percentage (as a share of the total WI electorate).

    349. Wes says:

      In NC, Democrats gained about 2500 votes on Republicans yesterday, going from 326,636 to 329,166. Republicans are still in a good position going into next Tuesday.

    350. Sheeple,Jr. says:

      Hugh, Wes, Jeff,SoHope and LewisS:
      Go to joeisdone and click the two boxes for Voting Method and the two boxes for Race. The whole map is a sea of Red! AA’s in the NC are most definitely underperforming.


    351. Stonewall DW says:

      Lastly: How dare these smears and attacks even be launched from those who haven’t called Florida correctly, in many cases ever, let alone in recent elections?

      Those who live in glass Clinton+/Gillum +/Nelson + homes shouldn’t throw stones.

      Feel me?

    352. Tina says:

      Ras trump job approval is up.

    353. Wes says:

      Sheep, blacks ticked upward yesterday by .03% while whites ticked marginally downward.

      Whites are still about 2/3 of the vote.

    354. SoHope says:

      France had 52k new cases yesterday compared to 60k in the US! We have more than 5x their population. How many French people wouldn’t have covid if Trump wasn’t president?

    355. Tina says:

      So, we are ok, Wes, right?

      Sorry, if you responded.

    356. hugh says:

      NC for a sunday was a huge win for trump. souls to the polls stopped the bleeding for a day but was an historic bust

    357. Wes says:

      SoHope, thoughts on the elections here in NC?

    358. Wes says:

      The numbers are still where Republicans need them, Tina.

    359. Sean says:

      Georgia is typically a point or two to the right of NC correct?

    360. Stonewall DW says:

      NC: In Wes I trust.
      FL: I am watching the numbers carefully, and I am not seeing anything that supports the narrative of a huge Biden win. Nobody from either party can win FL by more than 4 points. But thus far, as much as can be gleaned from these numbers, they seem to support the view of pollsters Tyson Group, Trafalgar, Big Data Poll, Rasmussen, Insider Advantage, Democracy Institute, and ABC News/Washington Post. A 2 to 3 point Trump win.

    361. Wes says:

      Sean, since 2004, GA has voted +6 (2004), +6 (2008), +6 (2012), and +2 (2016) to the right of NC.

    362. Tina says:

      52/46 Ras

      Looks like they are doing a daily horse race tracker.

    363. SoHope says:

      I think Trump and Tillis pull it out Trump maybe a little better than against Hillary. I hope Forrest makes it closer than people are expecting but thats wishful thinking.

    364. Chicon says:

      354 – does this mean that there’s a big D vote coming on election day? Or that they’re not enthusiastic?

    365. LewisS says:


      The way I read it, for all the D talk about their enthusiasm and need for early voting, and their enthusiasm to vote against Trump, it’s not really showing up in the biggest D counties in NC. Their vote share of the early vote electorate is almost exactly their vote share of the 2016 final vote electorate.

      If D’s were that much more enthusiastic, you’d expect to see these areas surging in the early vote as compared to the rest of NC.

    366. Wes says:

      Chicon, about 4.7 million Tarheels voted in 2016. Three million have now voted. The early votes seem to be rising proportionately to 2016. Unless Dems are majorly holding back from that year–which is at best unlikely given their huge emphasis on early voting–it looks as if we’ll have nearly identical results to 2016.

      That’s why I’m confident in my predictions.

    367. hugh says:

      chicon. If you believe the msm polls many dems are afraid of covid 75% or so reps about 25%. So that points to a rep sufge on ed not a dem surge.

    368. Stonewall DW says:

      One of the points I bring up once in a while here is the fact that in recent elections where a POTUS runs for re-election, the individual states move very little. Now that doesn’t guarantee a Trump win, because PA, WI and MI wouldn’t have to move much to flip.

      But early voting patterns that don’t vary much when compared to 2016 confirms my point.

    369. hugh says:

      apparently dems believe the msm polls, not the votes. lots of money to be made today on predictit

    370. Tina says:

      Trump is off to PA.

      3 big rallies.

    371. JeffP says:

      After looking at the posts and researching some…My hope and prediction for a UK type thrashing of the Labor Party for the Dems might come true. Winning the House back is within reach if these numbers are playing out across the country. GOP will keep the Senate.

      Biden is imploding…story today of him and Jill and brother Jim covering up sexual abuse. I wonder if the person involved will come forward?

      Calls Trump George twice until Jill corrects him? That’s insane.

      The other sexual stuff is trash.

    372. hugh says:

      Here is how this will work. If trump wins we win the house. Period. no way around it. the 31 dems who won in trump districts will mostly if not all lose. Why? it is common sense. in the 2018 hissy fit by suburban women they voted for “moderate” dems who said they would not bow to nancy and would work with trump. then the vote to a person save one to impeach trump. trump cannot win without these districts. so if he wins they lose. no one is going to vote for trump and the liar who voted to impeach him.

    373. JeffP says:

      I have heard many stories from clients over the years regarding elites and white collar pedo sex rings. The movie Eyes Wide Shut is reality folks. Loved Obama’s Chase JP MORGAN Gold credit card with the lines of coke. Random sex with each other…That is the world they live in. I have known it for decades. Surprised with this and Epstein… it is all being exposed. Wow…several of my former clients and close friends are very happy for this development. There has been a lot exposed in the UK too. This is not a conspiracy. The CIA and FBI know…that is why wrong Wray didn’t do anything.

    374. Stonewall DW says:



      Allentown, PA
      Lititz, PA
      Martinsburg, PA


      Lansing, MI
      West Salem, WI
      Omaha, NE


      Bullhead City, AZ
      Goodyear, AZ

    375. JeffP says:

      My prayer is…if there is self made snuff porn on that laptop
      …that is NOT released. My fear is Bannon would do it. Rudy wouldn’t do it. I heard a rumor there might be.

    376. Sy says:

      Man, trips to AZ this late for Trump worries me.

    377. Stonewall DW says:

      388 – Why? It doesn’t worry me. Besides, Trump is also trying to drag McSally across the finish line.

    378. Tina says:

      It’s also a back door to Nevada.

      A new poll from survey monkey shows it as a 1 point race.

    379. hugh says:

      first morning drop and big move for the gop in FL. by end of day may well be under 5% difference. Many thought anything under 8% and trump should have an easy win on ED.

    380. Stonewall DW says:

      Here are the margins of the closest states from 2016:

      NM: -8.2
      VA: -5.2
      CO: -4.9
      ME: -2.9
      NV: -2.4
      MN: -1.5
      NH: -0.3
      MI: +0.2
      PA: +0.7
      WI: +0.7
      FL: +1.2
      NE_02: +2.2
      AZ: +3.5
      NC: +3.6
      GA: +5.1
      OH: +8.1

      So makes perfect sense to still go to AZ.

    381. Stonewall DW says:

      Four years ago, Trump got a total of 333,999 votes in Miami-Dade, while Hillary got 624,126.

      New updated totals for early voting in Miami-Dade:

      202,463 GOP ballots returned
      282,843 Dem ballots returned.

      Another 26.1% of ballots have come in from unaffiliated voters.

      But wow, I don’t think anyone predicted just an 80k vote advantage for Dems at this point in Miami-Dade.

    382. Stonewall DW says:


      OCT 21-25, 2020

      Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research

      1,500 LV

      Biden 47%
      Trump 48%

    383. Scooterboy says:

      Trump ahead 48 to 47 on RAS head to head

    384. hugh says:

      as of 8:22 EV in Florida we are up 9K already and could easily be less than a 5% spread by end of day.

    385. hugh says:

      reading the nc tea leaves after a poor souls to the polls showing predictit has trump back in the lead, but end of week he will be up by a decent margin and the dem propagandists will probably spend their money on AZ and the upper midwest.

    386. MrVito says:

      396 It’s already almost 4% relative to 2016.

    387. MikeP says:

      It is my belief that this election will be people voting based upon their
      self-interest for themselves and their families. And that regard I believe there will be more cross-over voting by non-radical dems.

    388. lisab says:

      looks like fl is going trump

      has looked that way for a while

      unless a lot of gop votes for biden