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Biden : 351
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    Biden Crushing Trump in WI By 17%, Leads Trump by 7% in MI, Leads Trump BY 4% in ME2

    An absolute bomb was dropped by ABC News and The Washington Post with their new poll from Wisconsin showing Joe Biden with an almost unbelievable 17% lead over Donald Trump in a state Trump won just four years ago.

    PRESIDENT – WISCONSIN (ABC/WaPo)
    Joe Biden (D) 57%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 40%

    PRESIDENT – MICHIGAN (ABC/WaPo)
    Joe Biden (D) 51%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 44%

    if you are looking at straight polling averages, you would need nine different polls showing Trump with an average of a 2% lead to overcome this single poll to even get Trump back to even in Wisconsin. These polls were October 20-25 among likely voters in each state. Meanwhile in Maine, Trump is trailing in the Second Congressional District in a new poll from Colby College which is another electoral vote on the verge of switching to Biden.

    PRESIDENT – MAINE – CD2 (Colby College)
    Joe Biden (D) 46%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 42%

    US SENATE – MAINE (Colby College)
    Sara Gideon (D) 47%
    Susan Collins (R-inc) 43%

    This poll was done October 21-25 among likely voters.

    Posted by Dave at 9:58 am
    Filed under: General | Comments (779)

    779 Responses to “Biden Crushing Trump in WI By 17%, Leads Trump by 7% in MI, Leads Trump BY 4% in ME2”

    1. Stonewall DW says:

      Dave if you take those Wash Post polls seriously, I don’t know how I can help you.

    2. dblaikie says:

      Mr. Wissing, respectfully, why would anyone care about a polling average whose aim is to wipe out this bogus poll, so obviously an outlier? I wonder if you will post the upcoming Rasmussen head to head poll?

    3. Smack says:

      All Early Voting – Florida
      ———-

      OCT 28th / 5:30am

      DEM: 2,821,211 41.13%

      GOP: 2,573,233 37.51%

      Oct 28th / 8:40am

      DEM: 2,856,587 41.00%

      GOP: 2,614,846 37.53%

      Oct 28th / 8:55am

      DEM: 2,859,801 40.99%

      GOP: 2,619,470 37.54%

      Oct 28th / 9:10am

      DEM: 2,862,767 40.97%

      GOP: 2,633,790 37.55%

      DEM’s collapse is quickening.

    4. Gordon Allen says:

      He’s completely beyond mortal help. On Wednesday I expect him to eat the entire crow,not just the wings. The media is going hysterical with delusional polls because there is literally nothing underpinning Biden’s campaign but their polls.
      They have crossed the Rubicon.

    5. Smack says:

      Scratch last set of numbers…there was an error.

      This is good set.

      OCT 28th / 5:30am

      DEM: 2,821,211 41.13%

      GOP: 2,573,233 37.51%

      Oct 28th / 8:40am

      DEM: 2,856,587 41.00%

      GOP: 2,614,846 37.53%

      Oct 28th / 8:55am

      DEM: 2,859,801 40.99%

      GOP: 2,619,470 37.54%

      Oct 28th / 9:10am

      DEM: 2,862,767 40.97%

      GOP: 2,623,790 37.55%

    6. Gordon Allen says:

      BTW a 48+47 Trump Rasmussen lead would still represent 4 full points below his approval rate, almost unheard of.

    7. Florida Guy says:

      Former FL state GOP chair Blaise Ingoglia last night predicts red wave in FL. Notes remarkable GOP EV with four days left for EV:

      “Dems are up about 300K statewide BUT we have about 350K MORE reliable voters than them still yet to vote.”

    8. Sheeple,Jr. says:

      Mr. Wissing
      In your first line, you forgot to place the word “stink” between absolute and bomb.
      Even Liberal pundits are laughingly disavowing this poll.

      https://twitchy.com/gregp-3534/2020/10/28/i-dont-buy-this-new-abc-washington-post-poll-says-joe-biden-leads-by-17-points-in-wisconsin/

    9. Todd McCain says:

      Yep, two hours in and we have knocked 10K off the DEM lead. Could very well be another 50-60K net day.

    10. Marv says:

      RAS

      Trump 48 (+1)
      Biden 47 (-2)

    11. Stonewall DW says:

      Marv you forgot the BOOM!

    12. dblaikie says:

      Well the new Baris poll of Pa is out. He has Biden .7 ahead. If you are in to rounding it is even.

    13. BRENT says:

      Larry Schweikart
      @LarrySchweikart
      ·
      2m
      Luzerne Co. PA withdrew its motion for ACB to recuse on the PA vote counting.

      WINNING. Folks, I’m tellin’ ya, they know this is over.

    14. Stonewall DW says:

      Baris is sounding positive about Trump’s chances in PA.
      Clearly trending Trump’s direction.

    15. Dylan says:

      How exactly is the steal going to go down? My understanding is that AS OF NOW, postmarked ballots can be counted for several days after the election UNLESS ACB shuts that down. But is it that the mail ballots do not START to get counted until after the polls close such that the Dems can see “how many do we need?” to win? Or is there some other mechanism of fraud that the Supremes need to kibosh in PA? Just trying to understand how they attempt the steal.

    16. Sheeple,Jr. says:

      I think we may have slid back by about 20,000 votes yesterday in No. Carolina according to the joeisdone tracker. I hope Joe is wrong.
      The reason is all mail-in ballots sent over the weekend were tabulated yesterday.
      We are in good shape in the Tar Heel State.

    17. Todd McCain says:

      18. His NC map is not very good. We gained 15K yesterday and it is now 301K difference.

    18. Chicon says:

      6 – that’s been seen in most of the polling. Seems to me there’s a slice of America that believes he’s done a good job but nonetheless don’t want him to be President.

    19. dblaikie says:

      Well folks today we have IBD which shows about 4.5 Biden lead. And now we have Rasmussen with Trump plus one. However the big news is that Trump only needs for 46% to win the electoral college. In tipp Trump is right there, in Rasmussen Trump is going to win. Like I say these two polls are the only likely voter tracking polls around. Both point to a Trump victory. But Fox only wants to report the bogus “average”. Well if you take the average of the tracking polls, Trump is in good shape.

    20. BRENT says:

      C3
      @C_3C_3
      ·
      12m
      Want some good news to counter fear porn propaganda?

      Dem early voting lead in NC is 9K LESS than their lead in 2016 when Trump won by 3%.

      Dem early voting lead in FL could be 100K or less at this pace by ED when they need to be around 600K-700K.

      Ignore the propaganda and vote!

    21. jason says:

      I would like to see the RCP average below 5 by Tuesday.

    22. OHIO Joe says:

      While a win is a win, based on all the good news over the past day or so, it look like as of today, the Trump lead in Florida is essentially a full 5 points. On the other hand, while Mr. Biden is still winning VA and CO, his lead has shrunk to less then 5 point in those state. Michigan and Nevada join WI and PA in the Trump column for more than 300 EC points. NE 2 could be in the Trump column by the end of the day and New Mexico is also on its way.

    23. jason says:

      Hopefully that WI poll will depress the Dem vote.

      Why bother going out if you are ahead by 17 for a candidate you are not excited about.

    24. Chicon says:

      Don’t sleep on CT, NJ and MA, either.

    25. hugh says:

      sheeple. I have no idea where joeisdone gets his numbers. they do not align with the NC numbers. I have stopped looking at his site for NC. Here is are the actual numbers as of end of day yesterday reported this morning. The total difference is 300,605. Joe is done shows 335680. The link for NC results is below. In the last two days reps have picked up 28391.

      https://s3.amazonaws.com/dl.ncsbe.gov/Press/NC%20Absentee%20Stats%20for%202020%20General%20Election/Absentee_Stats_2020General_10282020.pdf

    26. LivintheDream says:

      Like in sports, momentum is a real thing in elections. All of the momentum is with the Trump campaign. And voters like sports fans want to be with the winner. The only question remaining is there one final October surprise left in the MSM tank. If not, there is nothing that a non-campaigning, uninspiring, ethically challenged, cogently challenged candidate by the name of Joe Biden can do. Senate Dems and House incumbents see this too. Look for more Dems in close raises to break from Biden as the weekend comes.

    27. Marv says:

      Baris says Florida is “gone” for Biden. Expects Bush 43 type numbers for Trump out of SE FL.

    28. Wes says:

      In news surprising no one, Mitch McConnell and Mikey’s senior Senator don’t like each other one bit:

      https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/523071-mcconnell-and-schumers-relationship-shredded-after-court-brawl?amp

    29. jason says:

      I will be happy if Trump wins PA and AZ and the NE and ME districts. That is the ball game.

      In the senate, if Ernst, Tillis and James win I will be happy too.

      Anything else would be a bonus.

    30. Stonewall DW says:

      Baris’ poll has Trump at 25% in Philly.

    31. jason says:

      Biden never really had a chance in FL.

    32. OHIO Joe says:

      C’mon Barris! How many Norwegians live in PA?

    33. JeffS says:

      My three-point plan to aid Dems in 2024 Prez race:

      1.) Find two sane, rational people from your party.

      2.) Have a coin toss. Winner is campaign mgr. Loser is your candidate.

      3.) Good luck with #1

    34. Smack says:

      All Early Voting – Florida
      ———

      OCT 28th / 5:30am

      DEM: 2,821,211 41.13%

      GOP: 2,573,233 37.51%

      Oct 28th / 9:35am

      DEM: 2,866,707 40.96%

      GOP: 2,629,524 37.57%

    35. Gordon Allen says:

      Chicon the difference is shy Trump voters.

    36. Marv says:

      If FL moves to the right, it seems reasonable to assume that most of the country will move right too. Partcularly NH, MN, & NV.

    37. Stonewall DW says:

      If you look at the Baris data, the chart of participation, you will see the top crossbar of the T had the weakest participation.

    38. Baris says:

      I found the right people to call in Philly.

      It took some time but I found them. I am that damn good.

      The insane thing is that I only called 40% of them. I’ll call the rest for my next and final PA poll. I think I can get Trump up to 35% in Philly. Just need a few bucks and I’ll publish it.

      Send money.

    39. hugh says:

      ON Joeisdone FL. There are currently 19 counties that range from slight blue to blue. In this counties the EV % gap shows biden ahead of 2016 in 12 of theses state and Trump EV% gap ahead in in 7. Today, I think we will likely see 3 more go into Trumps column. The big one being Broward.

      The total EV % gap is now below 2% and could easily be about 1% this morning. Joeisdone thinks the dems need an 8% positive gap to win on ED.

    40. jason says:

      If Trump did get 25% in Philly instead of 15% that he got in 2016 it would mean that with the same turnout Biden would have about a 413k lead out of Philly rather than Hillary’s 476k.

      I’ll take it.

    41. Marv says:

      DW,

      Perhaps Baris should stop complaining about the low participation rate in the PA T and just go ahead and apply a weighted number to that region.

    42. Stonewall DW says:

      Baris says Biden leads in his PA poll among the voters least likely to vote.

    43. Baris says:

      Would you guys want a WI poll?

      I can put one out this evening. Trump +4

      I will need some money though. These polls are hard work. Thoughts?

    44. jason says:

      Thoughts?”

      Hmmm… you are a moron.

      There is one.

    45. Tina says:

      So, what is the correct nc count?

      The joe site, or the numbers from nc?

    46. Baris says:

      I just want to say I love this Stonewall DW guy.

      I have made him President of my fan club.

      Thank you Stonewall DW!

    47. jason says:

      If FL moves to the right, it seems reasonable to assume that most of the country will move right too. Partcularly NH, MN, & NV.”

      Yep, these things move in tandem.

    48. Wes says:

      That’s a leap of logic, Marv:

      While FL went right from 2000 to 2004, MN, NH, and NV moved left from the first election to the next. All four of the states trended left in 2008 and progressively further right in 2012 and 2016. However, FL was the only one Republicans actually managed to win in any election since 2004. I wouldn’t necessarily extrapolate Trump will gain counytry wide.

    49. Stonewall DW says:

      Baris’ advice for Trump is to just park in Scranton until the election.

    50. Robbie says:

      jason says:
      October 28, 2020 at 10:29 am
      I would like to see the RCP average below 5 by Tuesday.

      – Why the arbitrary number?

    51. dblaikie says:

      Here is a thought for you.

      You have the brain power of Homo Habilis.

    52. jason says:

      Always good to remind us what we are really voting on.

      Democratic Party Platform:
      1) Anti-Police
      2) Pro-Looting
      3) Sieze retirement savings
      4) Sieze guns
      5) Pro-illegal immigration
      6) Rural America must bail out the failed Democrat cities
      7) If you are not a person of color, you are a racist whether you want to be or not.
      8) Pro-mutilation of young children
      9) Open prison doors and let them all go free
      10) End the free speech of anyone who dissents
      11) Anti-National Anthem
      12) Pro-Mail out ballots to all people: citizens, non-citizens, living, and dead.
      13) Pro-anarchy
      14) Pro-cancel culture
      15) Pro-rationing of gov’t controlled healthcare
      16) Pro-Force taxpayers to pay off student loan debt instead of the students who took the loans.
      17) Pro-“Green” new deal to devastate the economy with crippling regulations and destroy the energy industry.
      18) Pro-“Republicans are enemies of the state” (so aim your weapons at them carefully)
      19) Endless mob violence unless you vote Democrats into office
      20) Pro-never ending shut downs to keep everyone under government control
      21) Pro-send millions of jobs back to China
      22) Pro-never ending of jobless benefits
      23) Pro-living wage
      24) DC to become 51st state
      25) Anti-Peace in the middle east
      26) Pro-sex with minors
      27) Anti-vaccine until after the election.
      28) Pro-replacing lower court system with lynch mobs.
      29) Pro-Packing the SCOTUS with commies
      30) Promised to BAN fracking
      31) Promise to END THE OIL INDUSTRY
      32) Taxpayer funded ‘cunity’ college for all

    53. OHIO Joe says:

      “I will need some money though.” No you don’t.

    54. mnw says:

      43651

      That’s how many people in Lansing, MI signed up at the Trump rally yesterday, according to the RNC.

      Pretty decent crowd. I think the biggest outdoor crowd for Trump ever. His other rallies this week have ranged from 13000-22000, IIRC.

    55. jason says:

      – Why the arbitrary number?”

      Not arbitrary at all.

      Below 5 gives Trump a better chance in PA, MI, WI, NH, NV, AZ, NH and NV.

      GFY.

    56. Stonewall DW says:

      The GOP just gained another couple thousand votes in FL. Gap down to just 235k.

      Still 2.5 million yet to vote.

    57. sy says:

      Currently, Trump is doing better in ALL 67 Florida counties than in 2016 with in-person voting!

      Let that sink in.

    58. Smack says:

      All Early Voting – Florida

      ———-

      OCT 28th / 5:30am

      DEM: 2,821,211 41.13%

      GOP: 2,573,233 37.51%

      Oct 28th / 10:00am

      DEM: 2,870,764 40.93%

      GOP: 2,635,637 37.58%

    59. dblaikie says:

      The one thing that I would ignore in this cycle is the “average.” We have a Quinnipiac poll on the average that was released 12 days ago! It is no longer relevant. In fact coming from Quinnipiac it was never relevant. If you are going to do this averaging thing, only include polls less than a week old and only include likely voters. But even then when over half the polls come from colleges and media outlets that despise Trump, why would I believe them. Why would I affirm that gee these media outlets and Liberal Colleges hate Trump and have been lying and smearing him for over three year, but I think that their polls are honest and above board. Robbie, screw the average!

    60. Stonewall DW says:

      63 – I have my own way of averaging. I right now have it Trump getting GA, AZ, FL, NC, and PA. 280 EVs.

      I have Trump behind by a bit in MI, WI and MN.

    61. Stonewall DW says:

      Survey Monkey is garbage…but…they have been showing a national number of Biden +8 or +9. They just dropped a new one, entirely after last debate:

      OCT 25-27, 2020

      SurveyMonkey

      9,882 LV

      Biden 51%
      Trump 47%

    62. Sheeple,Jr. says:

      What is happening in MI with the early vote and the state of the race in general? Does anyone know?

    63. Marv says:

      #51 Wes,

      Your data points are all true. This year, however, the apparent Trump lead (standard caveats apply) in FL could indicate movement elsewhere. I’m referencing those states that Trump narrowly lost in 2016. NH, MN, and NV come to mind for me.

      When Dave puts up the Prediction Thread, I will consider putting those states in the Trump column.

    64. Gordon Allen says:

      Marv. You’re right. Florida has demographics that closely mirror the country;in fact has a slightly higher ” minority” population,plus a jewish population that votes Democrat.
      In a closely divided nation, Florida is a closely divided state. If Trump wins by 4 here he’s absolutely going to win nationally,as at most we’re only 2-3 points to the right of the country.

    65. Marv says:

      Baris said that he has McSally by 1-2 points.

    66. Baris says:

      “Baris said that he has McSally by 1-2 points.”

      Bingo! More like 2-3 points. I saved some of the right people for my final AZ poll coming out soon. Just need a few more bucks please.

    67. mnw says:

      According to Ronna McDaniels at the RNC, the AVERAGES for attendees at Trump’s 5 most recent rallies are:

      1) About 25% self-identify as “not Republican.”

      2) About 21% report that they did not vote in 2016.

      The crowd of 43600 that Trump drew in Lansing, MI is more than Michigan Sate draws for many of its home football games. (Michigan State is in East Lansing, right next door to where Trump had his Lansing rally.)

    68. mnw says:

      71 sb “McDaniel”

    69. Waingro says:

      Gallup PID D+2

    70. Waingro says:

      #70, best Dem troll here, and it’s not even close. He makes me laugh– what can I say!

    71. Stonewall DW says:

      FL – GOP just shaved off a couple more thousand votes.

    72. Marv says:

      DW,

      Somehow I missed when you changed over to Stonewall DW.
      When did that happen?

    73. mnw says:

      65 Stonewall

      Survey Monkey emails me questionnaires about the St. Louis Blues often. (How would you rate the parking garage? On a 1-5 scale, rate the restrooms in terms of convenience & cleanliness,” etc.)

      If the SM political polls work the same way as their Blues surveys, respondents self-select whether or not to respond. They send out 10000 emails & total up the 1500 who reply.

      Do you know how they select the people they’re polling for this election?

    74. Chicon says:

      Headline…..”FL GOP cannibalizes more of their ED vote!”.

    75. Michelle Obama vs the DNC buffet table says:

      Waingro says:
      October 28, 2020 at 11:15 am
      Gallup PID D+2

      —————–

      Isn’t that a BOOM?

    76. Sheeple,Jr. says:

      #19- Todd
      The best political blog in NC, The Old North State, agrees with your assessment that the spread between GOP and Dem. votes in NC thru yesterday is a shade above 300,000.

      https://twitter.com/OldNorthStPol/status/1321417295663636480?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Eembeddedtimeline%7Ctwterm%5Eprofile%3Aoldnorthstpol&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.oldnorthstatepolitics.com%2F

    77. Stonewall DW says:

      And if you look especially at the FL panhandle counties, comparing the early vote thus far with the 2016 final vote totals, its obvious the GOP is holding back. There are a lot of votes there yet to come.

    78. MikeP says:

      Wow, imagine not being a Rep. and standing in freezing rainy weather
      That is 46% of attendance that is almost like crawling over broken glass to attend

    79. Dr. Doom says:

      Tick – tock

      Momentum is a bitch (appropriate for Biden-Harris)

      Texas – gone
      Ohio – gone
      Iowa – gone
      North Carolina – gone
      Florida – gone
      Pennsylvania – going, going
      Michgian – going, going

      Who’s next? Arizona, Nevada, Minnesota, Wisconsin – all gone by this weekend

      Tick – tock

    80. Stonewall DW says:

      Marv it happened first back in 2014 after a particularly rough day in the polling many were on edge of cliff.

      This was some weeks after I had posted this:

      “So my official prediction is the GOP gets to 54 seats, a flip of 9 seats. I know the polls don’t currently support this. But if you look closely at the RCP averages, you will see its not far from reality.
      Comment by DW — August 5, 2014 @ 4:35 pm”

      So after many were down in the dumps, I wrote another post standing firm in my view that it would be GOP +9. Someone replied saying, “Look, there is DW, standing like a stone wall!”

      So I adopted it for the rest of 2014.

      But I brought it back for 2020. I will go back to DW after the election.

    81. Michelle Obama vs the DNC buffet table says:

      IBD/TIPP: Trump Now Ahead Of Where He Was In 2016

      https://hotair.com/archives/jazz-shaw/2020/10/28/ibd-tipp-trump-now-ahead-2016/

      chomp chomp chomp….

    82. mnw says:

      82 MikeP

      There is probably some overlap– people who are both “not Republican” AND also did not vote in 2016.

      I have to think that everyone who attends a Trump rally & reports that they didn’t vote in 2016? Probably gets an armed escort to their polling place 15 minutes after the rally ends.

    83. Waingro says:

      Link to latest Gallup PID through October 15th. They have the DRI at 31/29/38. And sorry, yes, that’s a BOOM!

      https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

    84. jason says:

      The troll needs new material.

    85. Michelle Obama vs the DNC buffet table says:

      From IBD/TIPP article above…

      The IBD/TIPP survey was pretty accurate four years ago so take this news as you choose. But as with most races, we’re looking more at the trends and directions than the hard numbers. Biden is up 50.7 to 46.3 nationally. That probably sounds like good news for Biden fans, but if we scroll back only two days in the same tracking poll, Biden was up by a full seven points, 44.7 to 51.7. Yes, there’s always a bit of jitter in daily tracking polls, but something does appear to be lifting Trump’s fortunes over the past week.

    86. Cash Cow TM says:

      Cow will put up $1,000 and give you three to one odds on WI going to Biden by 17 pts.

      If I win you pay me $1,000.
      If I lose and Biden wins by 17 pts or more in WI I will pau you $3,000.

      Deal?

      Line up to take my bet.

    87. Marv says:

      #84 DW,

      Ok thanks. Our G650 Captain was complaining because TSA caught the discrepancy in the manifest and threatened to fine us.

    88. jason says:

      I don’t suppose any of the MSM is covering the Biden family corruption scandal.

    89. Michelle Obama vs the DNC buffet table says:

      Sorry one more….

      That study’s conclusion as of this week is that if Joe Biden carries the popular vote 52-48, Donald Trump has an 88% of winning the electoral college. So if IBD/TIPP is anywhere near being in the ballpark of reality, this thing is far from over.

    90. jason says:

      You would have to be an ass to take cow’s bet.

    91. Smack says:

      All Early Voting – Florida
      ———-

      OCT 28th / 5:30am

      DEM: 2,821,211 41.13%

      GOP: 2,573,233 37.51%

      Oct 28th / 10:30am

      DEM: 2,879,992 40.89%

      GOP: 2,648,829 37.61%

    92. jason says:

      From IBD/TIPP article above”

      IBD is way to the left.

      If they give Trump a chance it must be a hard pill to swallow.

    93. jason says:

      DEM: 2,879,992 40.89%

      GOP: 2,648,829 37.61%

      Pretty amazing, it started out what like a 13 pt difference.

    94. hugh says:

      its a slow drip drip drip on predictit. NC gets more red by the day. AZ will be next as it slides towards the low 50s for biden. PA below 60. I am waiting for MI to collapse. It will be next.

    95. jason says:

      That study’s conclusion as of this week is that if Joe Biden carries the popular vote 52-48″

      Won’t happen, of course, because of third party candidates.

      I think if Trump can get 47% of the national vote he has a good chance of winning. At 46% it would be a toss-up.

      Biden is going to leave at least 7 million votes on the table in CA, NY and IL.

    96. WizardofCozz says:

      Should get under 200K difference in FL today. That is great news.

    97. Waingro says:

      If Trump ends up winning FL by 4-5 points like some pollsters and others are predicting, that would mean, at a minimum, that FL is officially a solid red state. I’m liking what I see so far.

      Barry didn’t even carry FL by 3 points in his mini-landslide in 2008.

    98. jason says:

      its a slow drip drip drip on predictit.”

      Three banging Cal moved up to 54% on a rescue poll showing him 7 pts ahead.

      It should move back down soon.

    99. WizardofCozz says:

      Ben Shapiro
      @benshapiro
      ·
      4m
      I have no sympathy for companies that decide to capitulate to political parties openly advocating censorship. They have a stated raison d’etre. The fact that there is a political party that opposes that raison d’etre does not excuse abandoning it.

    100. mnw says:

      I think the fact that the gd Libertarian this time has far less name rec than the gd Libertarian who ran last time is often overlooked. The new adzh*** (Jorgensen) is just “some dude” (as RRH likes to describe unknown candidates). However, the old adzh*** (Johnson) was a former governor of NM.

      Big difference! Has to help Orange at the margins, esp in some western states like NM, NV, & CO.

      The DEMs must’ve thought they won the Powerball when the Libertarians got former Gov. Johnson to run in ’16.

    101. Stonewall DW says:

      “but something does appear to be lifting Trump’s fortunes over the past week.”

      Something? Something? How about the thought of waiting 30 minutes in line at the gas station only to have to pay $6 a gallon and have it rationed?

    102. jan says:

      I’m on a continuous roller coaster as to who will win the election. However, the WI & MI numbers posted above are simply absurd! The energy, rally attendance, and other numerous demonstrations of support for Trump defy such huge voting disparities.

    103. Cash Cow TM says:

      After the election, I say we have public executions of the five pollsters who had the biggest error when comparing their final poll and the final results.

      The next 5 pollsters who missed by the widest margins should be forever banned from ever polling again.

    104. WizardofCozz says:

      I second Cash’s motion!!

    105. Tina says:

      Cruz is tearing to shreds Twitter jack, who looks like the unabomber 2.0.

    106. WizardofCozz says:

      I wasn’t sure if that was Jack Dorsey or if it was Rssian Czar advisor Rasputin??

    107. Chicon says:

      At this point in 2016, the GOP early vote lead was down to 2k (the D’s gained 5k from the previous night). Currently, the Drats lead (on TargetSmart registered voter page) by 310k. Still some shaving to do…

      https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/?view_type=State&demo=Registered%20Party&demo_val=All&state=FL

      Question, why does joeisdone have 1M more total votes cast than does TS?

      https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/

    108. Country Dick Montana says:

      Dorsey has the most punchable face in all of Big Tech.

    109. mnw says:

      jason

      If IDB is “way to the left,” it sure as hell didn’t used to be. Investor’s Business Daily consistently ran the best, hardest hitting conservative editorials I’ve ever seen.

      When IBD ceased publishing, the IBD staff took their editorials online– where you can still see them, & they’re still arch-conservative, & still very well-written.

      Why is IBD “way to the left” in your estimation?

      Also TIPP, Trafalgar & RAS were about the only pollsters giving Trump a good shot in 2016, IIRC, but I may have misremembered this.

    110. GatorBJ says:

      Don’t give me the TIPP. IT HURTS!!!!

    111. Smack says:

      All Early Voting – Florida
      ———-

      OCT 28th / 5:30am

      DEM: 2,821,211 41.13%

      GOP: 2,573,233 37.51%

      Oct 28th / 10:30am

      DEM: 2,879,992 40.89%

      GOP: 2,648,829 37.61%

      Oct 28th / 11:05am

      DEM: 2,884,330 40.87%

      GOP: 2,655,380 37.62%

      Today, GOP +19,000

    112. jason says:

      Scumbag Mitt now predicts Trump win….

      zzzzzzz….

      “@MittRomney now thinks Trump has “excellent prospects” to win the election (a change from last week before the debate when he put his chances at “40 percent.”)

      Romney didn’t vote for Trump, and says he “probably won’t” reveal who he did cast a ballot for.

      — Julie Tsirkin (@JulieNBCNews) October 26, 2020

    113. Chicon says:

      Right after saying that, Mitt was seen looking to the sky and heard muttering “this flip-flop is for you, Johnny Boy.”

    114. MikeP says:

      If I remember correctly in 2016 IBD was teamed with the LA Times. The polling was based upon a set group of 3000 people which they monitored based upon their change in their enthusiasm for Trump and Hillary. I found this to be revolutionary in national polling. I believe were similar to Rasmussen at the end

    115. Stonewall DW says:

      GOP just netted another 6,000 votes in FL. Gap now just 227k.

    116. Gordon Allen says:

      Jason. Why shouldn’t Trump get 47%? He got 46% last time against a stronger candidate,has made real inroads into the black and Hispanic communities,has a better ground game- and I still don’t know anybody who voted for him in2016 who’ll change their vote. These realities maky these absurd polls….absurd. His absolute floor is 46-47%.

    117. Stonewall DW says:

      120 – the answer on the left, as affirmed by the millennials running the Biden campaign, is there is going to be an invisible army of young and/or new leftist voters who will show up to push the national turnout to a crazy 180 million mark, so that even though Trump gets the same as he got before, Biden shoots way past Obama’s 2008 numbers.

      This without a physical ground game, and just digitally contacting all these invisible voters, telling them to vote.

    118. WizardofCozz says:

      How much more has EV and VBM been in 2020 compared to 2016 so far?

    119. Stonewall DW says:

      But as Robert Barnes points out:

      Robert Barnes
      @Barnes_Law
      ·
      12h
      Key to mail in vote was supposed to be Democrats getting their low-turnout voters to polls through vote by mail. Given the Republican reluctance to vote early, this should have resulted in the minority millennial vote reaching new heights in states like North Carolina. It’s down.

    120. Stonewall DW says:

      Its as though the millennials running Biden’s campaign are playing a video game simulation, and going….’oh oh this is so cool…look at Biden’s numbers when we add in 15 million potential new progressive voters!’

    121. WizardofCozz says:

      Benny
      @bennyjohnson
      ·
      23m
      Twitter CEO admits to congress that there is “no standard practice” for what they censor – meaning any conservative that Twitter wants to ban, they ban them

    122. Dylan says:

      124–Maybe this will work out for Biden as well as “ORCA” worked out for Romney.

    123. Official Trump is Done Countdown says:

      6 days…

    124. Scooterboy says:

      Hannity had the Trafalgar pollster and another pollster who I can’t remember right now, on his show last night. They both stated that they started noticing a huge shift to Trump with younger voters following the last debate. They said that these younger voters absolutely do not want to be locked down again. They fear Biden will do just that.

    125. Waingro says:

      Larry Schweikart
      @LarrySchweikart
      ·
      1m
      AZ Rs chewing away the lead. Watch out. Rs vote on election day in AZ.

      Ds +75,000 vs. over 110,000 just three days ago.

    126. Waingro says:

      #128, the Trafalgar PA poll showed Trump winning 18-24 voters by about 8 points! If that bears out, that would be one of the most shocking developments in electoral history.

    127. cb says:

      I haven’t checked in on this website since the last election, but the new WaPo poll made me think of it.

      It’s good to see this site hasn’t learned anything from 2016.

    128. Smack says:

      All Early Voting – Florida
      ——-

      OCT 28th / 5:30am

      DEM: 2,821,211 41.13%

      GOP: 2,573,233 37.51%

      Oct 28th / 10:30am

      DEM: 2,879,992 40.89%

      GOP: 2,648,829 37.61%

      Oct 28th / 11:05am

      DEM: 2,884,330 40.87%

      GOP: 2,655,380 37.62%

      Oct 28th / 11:42am

      DEM: 2,893,957 40.82%

      GOP: 2,668,656 37.64%

    129. LivintheDream says:

      #128.

      Not really. Many young people on the left do not like Biden as he is not progressive enough and would be just as happy to sit this out. My son told me this about and at first I was shocked too but there might be something to this.

    130. Waingro says:

      #133, well that was already baked in the cake. Lots of Bernie Bros are going to sit this one out.

      But 18-24 voters actually FLIPPING to Trump — and due to anti-government mandate sentiment — is a whole different can of worms.

    131. mnw says:

      131 cb

      What SHOULD we “have learned from 2016,” in your view?

      That the polls were RIGHT? That Trump didn’t have a prayer?

      Your post is a bit confusing. No offense.

    132. jason says:

      Jason. Why shouldn’t Trump get 47%? He got 46% last time against a stronger candidate,has made real inroads into the black and Hispanic communities,has a better ground game- and I still don’t know anybody who voted for him in2016 who’ll change their vote. These realities maky these absurd polls….absurd. His absolute floor is 46-47%.”

      I hope you are right.

      My fear is that a majority of voters are ok with the Dem agenda and with a Marxist like Kamala Harris as President. This is the result of decades of left wing academia promoting socialism over capitalism.

    133. jason says:

      It’s good to see this site hasn’t learned anything from 2016.”

      Hmmm..

      What was the “lesson” from 2016, pray tell?

    134. mnw says:

      130 Waingro

      I think that falls under the heading of “too good to be true,” & it makes me nervous about Trafalgar.

    135. Country Dick Montana says:

      “showed Trump winning 18-24 voters by about 8 points!.”

      As much as I would like to see it, color me a little skeptical on that one.

    136. jason says:

      Lots of Bernie Bros are going to sit this one out. ”

      I am skeptical.

      Why wouldn’t they want Kamala Harris, the MOST liberal senator in the Dem caucus?

    137. jason says:

      Maybe this will work out for Biden as well as “ORCA” worked out for Romney.”

      I worked on ORCA….

    138. Chicon says:

      Stonewall – Target Smart shows 6.3M votes cast as of 10:00am eastern. Joeisdone shows 7.1M as of a few minutes ago.

      Assuming there haven’t been 800k votes cast in the past 2:50, why is there a difference? Which is right?

    139. MrVito says:

      Cedar Key and Daytona areas have flipped to GOP advantage over 2016.

    140. MrVito says:

      I have posted several times that TargetSmart is always at least a day behind in FL.

    141. MrVito says:

      FL passed 6.3M votes on Monday.

    142. mnw says:

      “the millennials running the Biden campaign”

      Is that true?

      Well, there’s Biden’s biggest mistake right there.

      Reminds me of the old-time union bosses in WI calling Hillary’s wonderkids & telling them, “Hillary is in terrible trouble here. She could lose WI. Really. She needs to get out to Milwaukee ASAP & shake things up.”

      What did those geezers know? None of them could even tell you what the word “algorithm” means.

      Reminds me of Sam Rayburn’s famous comment about Defense Secretary Bob McNamara’s whiz kids: “They’re very smart, but I still wish at least one of them had ever run for Sheriff.”

    143. Waingro says:

      “130 Waingro

      I think that falls under the heading of “too good to be true,” & it makes me nervous about Trafalgar.”

      I share your sentiment. It would seem — if true — that Trump would be up more in their top line. But then again: I do have a sense that the demographics of this election are going in very different tangent from 2016.

    144. Smack says:

      All Early Voting – Florida
      ———-

      OCT 28th / 5:30am

      DEM: 2,821,211 41.13%

      GOP: 2,573,233 37.51%

      Oct 28th / 12:00pm

      DEM: 2,898,573 40.80%

      GOP: 2,675,146 37.65%

    145. MrVito says:

      Clinton Won 18-29 in PA by 9 points last time.

    146. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      Rump ain’t winning 18-29 year olds in PA. LOL you all are delusional.

    147. Waingro says:

      Monmouth ALL in on Dems sweeping Georgia.

      Nate Cohn
      @Nate_Cohn
      ·
      6m
      Democrats takes the lead in Georgia, according to Monmouth
      Biden+4, 50-46 (previously Trump+2)
      Ossoff+2, 49-47 (previously Perdue+5)
      Warnock well ahead in both runoffs

    148. jason says:

      Just checked out the Green Party platform.

      Lifelong public education!

      “The Green Party’s full-strength Green New Deal is needed now as much for economic recovery as for stopping the climate meltdown.

      Our campaign has detailed a budget for an Ecosocialist Green New Deal for a 10-year, $27.5 trillion investment in public enterprises and planning to create 30.5 million new jobs in a Green Economy Reconstruction Program to rebuild all of our productive systems for 100% clean energy and zero-to-negative carbon emissions by 2030. It would end poverty and economic despair and create an additional 7.6 million jobs by spending $1.4 trillion per year on an Economic Bill of Rights that includes a job guarantee, a guaranteed income above poverty, affordable housing, Medicare for All, lifelong public education, and a secure retirement by doubling Social Security benefits.

      We pay for the Ecosocialist Green New Deal in the next 10 years through a combination of more progressive taxation of income, corporate profits, wealth, and estates; redirecting 75% of the military budget into the Green New Deal; and either by borrowing through Green Quantitative Easing to bail out the people and the planet this time instead of the big banks, or by creating the funds through the Green Party’s monetary reform proposal for government-issued, debt-free Greenbacks. In the long run, the program will pay for itself through the sale of public goods and services, including public power and internet fees, public transportation fares, public housing rents, and leases of clean-production Green New Deal factories to worker cooperatives.”

    149. mnw says:

      147 Wain

      Makes me question Trafalgar’s PA poll– which shows Biden ahead slightly anyway– even with that dubious info about the young’uns included, presumably.

    150. Scooterboy says:

      For context, the sex breakdown for 2016 was +4 women (52% W/ 48%M). This poll is 24% more women.

      Men voted 53% Trump to 41% Hillary.

      WaPo is either the dumbest pollster or this was intended to suppress votes.

    151. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      BOOM

      Georgia

      Monmouth
      Biden+4, 50-46
      Ossoff+2, 49-47

      Last poll had the Rs up in both. Talk about serious movement in Georgia!

    152. mnw says:

      RE: Green Party

      In MT, the DEMs filed a successful lawsuit to keep the Green Party off the ballot. IIRC, the DEMs went around & persuaded voters who had signed the Green Party ballot initiative to sign affidavits withdrawing their earlier signatures.

    153. Baris says:

      Believe nothing’s wrong with Trafalgar’s PA poll. I’m seeing the same thing in the youth vote.

      PA going hard to Trump and it won’t be close.

      Send money and you will see this in my final poll. Believe the poll will show Trump +5

    154. Tina says:

      Trump is having rallies in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota on Friday.

    155. Waingro says:

      #153, yes. And I see “non-partisan” clowns like Dave Wasserman on Twitter trashing them today.

      It’s stuff like that that makes me want Trump to crush this election and for Trafalgar et. al. to stuff these clowns and the polling industry in general in their lockers for good.

    156. The Godfather says:

      Wisconsin Trafalgar

      Biden 47.5
      Trump 47.1

    157. Todd McCain says:

      If Ossoff did beat Dave Perdue that would be a joke. That guy is a complete tool who has done nothing with his life.

    158. Robbie says:

      The Monmouth poll stands in stark contrast to what Erick Erickson suggested yesterday on Twitter. He said Trump would win GA while Purdue would run ahead of Trump and avoid a runoff.

      Monmouth is a lot like Quinnipiac, though.

    159. Waingro says:

      #158, if Monmouth was remotely true, Trump would be high tailing it to Georgia instead.

    160. Robbie says:

      Todd McCain says:
      October 28, 2020 at 1:13 pm
      If Ossoff did beat Dave Perdue that would be a joke. That guy is a complete tool who has done nothing with his life.

      – It would also speak to how bad the national environment for Republicans was. But in 2008, a buffoon comedian defeated Norm Coleman so stranger things can happen.

    161. Robbie says:

      Waingro says:
      October 28, 2020 at 1:14 pm
      #158, if Monmouth was remotely true, Trump would be high tailing it to Georgia instead.

      – Maybe, but not necessarily. Hypothetically, they could know they’re down, but not want look panicked by changing their plans this close to election day.

    162. GatorBJ says:

      Dude, stop embarrassing yourself with these silly junk polls. I am in charge now. Go back to biting your pillow.

      ———————–
      Gatorbillyjoel says:
      October 28, 2020 at 1:12 pm
      BOOM

      Georgia

      Monmouth

    163. Stonewall DW says:

      GOP shaved off another 3500 votes in FL.

      down to a gap of 221,798

    164. The Godfather says:

      Marquette

      Biden 48
      Trump 43
      Jorgensen 2
      Won’t answer 8

    165. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      Yes, Rump can’t go to Georgia. It would let everyone know how bad he is losing and going to lose. So, I hope he doesn’t. The meltdown from the delusional Rump kissers will be so much sweeter if they think they have a chance of winning.

    166. Tina says:

      The Florida Rs are voting for Biden.

      Massive cross over.

      -jebot

    167. Waingro says:

      #165, I disagree. GOTV in must have states >>> optics. And it would be easy for Trump to do a quick swing of Florida and Georgia.

    168. Tina says:

      China Biden and the Obumbler heading to Michigan on Saturday (joint appearance).

    169. Waingro says:

      “Marquette

      Biden 48
      Trump 43
      Jorgensen 2
      Won’t answer 8”

      That doesn’t quite add up.

    170. GatorBJ says:

      Junk polls vs actual votes in FL show pretty clearly this is going Trump’s way.

      But keep kidding yourself.

      —————————
      Gatorbillyjoel says:
      October 28, 2020 at 1:19 pm
      Yes, Rump can’t go to Georgia. It would let everyone know how bad he is losing and going to lose. So, I hope he doesn’t. The meltdown from the delusional Rump kissers will be so much sweeter if they think they have a chance of winning.

    171. RB says:

      Robbie-Has GA ever voted to the left of FL

    172. mnw says:

      Evaluating Al Franken’s showbiz career only*, he was very successful indeed before entering politics. Tossoff was not.

      And of course Robbie is citing the most famous stolen election in the last 50 years.

      *Franken was first a highly paid, much-sought-after comedy writer. Then a successful comedy club & guest TV performer himself, as half of Franken and Davis; and then an SNL star. Just because I hate the guy doesn’t mean I can’t acknowledge his success.

    173. Waingro says:

      Also, I would be remiss not to point out Marquette had Trump down 6 in WI in their last poll in 2016….

    174. Tina says:

      Jebots crushed.

      Shem Horne
      @Shem_Infinite
      ·
      5m
      Zuckerberg and Jack both admit that they have no information showing that the Hunter Biden story has anything to do with a Russian disinformation campaign.

    175. Tina says:

      Where from?

      Larry Schweikart
      @LarrySchweikart
      ·
      44m
      AZ Rs chewing away the lead. Watch out. Rs vote on election day in AZ.

      Ds +75,000 vs. over 110,000 just three days ago.

    176. Robbie says:

      RB says:
      October 28, 2020 at 1:22 pm
      Robbie-Has GA ever voted to the left of FL

      – In 1980, but that was due to Jimmy Carter being on the ballot.

      I trust Erick Erickson on Georgia since he’s got a front row seat there, but 2020 is the year for oddities.

    177. LewisS says:

      For the FL experts, do you think we’ll see turnout hit 11 million in 2020? If not, what’s your best estimate?

    178. Pitchaboy says:

      Ari Fleischer believes GA, IA, OH will be close.

    179. Waingro says:

      #182, he’s not really a reliable elections analyst though.

    180. michael corleone says:

      So Marquette’s final poll has Biden +5. In 2016 they had Clinton +6.

    181. Stonewall DW says:

      OCT 9-21, 2020

      University of Arkansas
      591 LV

      Biden 32%
      Trump 65%

      2016 result was Trump 61/Hillary 34.

      This is another in a list of polls I keep pointing to where the pollster isn’t part of the Cabal that fears the NY Times and Silver, and is polling in a state that doesn’t matter, and therefore gives results that show Trump building on 2016 totals. I showed one like this yesterday from LA.

    182. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      Biden up 12 and Warner up 20 in Virginia. Who was it here thinking Warner is in trouble? LOL.

    183. The Godfather says:

      Wisconsin Trafalgar

      Biden 47.5
      Trump 47.1
      Jorgensen 3.1
      Other 1.2
      Undecided 1.1

      Sample size 1087 MOE 2.87

    184. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      Iowa early voting looking great for Biden. Already over 70% of 2016 numbers in as well.

    185. Sean says:

      Gator – Link? Source?

    186. Gordon Allen says:

      Jason what polling ( I know) shows support for the Democrat’s agenda?? Which is what exactly? It seems 1 Trump is evil 2 Covd 3 Rinse and repeat. Which of those grabs Trump 2016 voters away? The only thing is…polls.The reality is Trump is between 46-49% at least.

    187. dblaikie says:

      Trump is going to speak in Las Vegas. It is not a rally. Could be interesting.

    188. mnw says:

      185 Stonewall

      I think your reports on LA & AR polling (2016 v. 2020) have more predictive value than just about anything.

      I suppose it’s theoretically possible that deep red states have gotten redder, while battleground swing states have gotten bluer at the same time.

      But it’s sure counterintuitive.

    189. mnw says:

      I think Trump needs to be at 47 in the head-2-head to feel comfortable about winning. In ’16, Trump was at 46, & that election was basically a coin flip. Can’t count on 46 producing the same result again.

    190. Stonewall DW says:

      Replying to
      @CottoGottfried
      R just tied D in Maricopa Co. Arizona is trending the right way.

    191. Stonewall DW says:

      Marquette also polled WI for just two-way matchup and found it 48/45 for Biden. So if Some hidden Trump vote is currently parked in Jorgensen’s slot, they might end up going Trump.

      Overall this is a good poll considering Marquette four years ago, and its Hillary +6.

    192. Stonewall DW says:

      The gap is now down to 220k in FL.

    193. jason says:

      Jason what polling ( I know) shows support for the Democrat’s agenda?? ”

      Hello?

      Anyone voting for Biden is supporting his agenda.

      I know Robbie thinks suburban women are stupid airheads that don’t vote on policy, but actually by now people understand what they are voting for.

    194. Michelle Obama vs the DNC buffet table says:

      Donald Trump Is Again Going to Win
      The facts speak for themselves.

      In the Republican primaries more people voted for just one candidate, Donald Trump, than turned out for all the Democratic candidates. The enthusiasm for Donald is not just a matter of turnout at airports where he flies in and flies out. It can be tabulated in the electoral turnout at primaries. Throughout this race the enthusiasm for Donald has been colossal. For Joe it has been comparatively feeble. And there is more.

      Last week I reported that 56 percent of people polled by Gallup in late September affirmed they were better off now, amid a painful pandemic, than they were four years ago before Donald entered the White House. Another 56 percent of Americans said the economy was the most important issue for them in the race. And still another 56 percent of Americans said they expected a Trump victory.

      https://spectator.org/trump-win-2020/

    195. Gordon Allen says:

      mnw. I said 46% is the floor for Trump. The inroads into hispanics,blacks,asians,and a vastly superior ground game alone push him higher. The crowds he draws are better than 2016.
      Essentially, the media/ college polls are saying Biden is as,or stronger against Trump than Obama v McCain which.was D+7. Does that pass the smell or logic test? At all?

    196. LewisS says:

      In Sumter (The Villages), the pace of Republican gains over Ds is quickening.

      Thus far today:

      VBM: R’s nearly doubled the VBM returns of Ds

      In Person Vote (head to head) R’s 85.7% of vote vs. D’s 14.3%. To date, R’s were voting at rate of 83.9% vs 16.1%

      Raw Numeric spread of ballots R v D = 25,415 (not including Independents). The final vote spread in 2016 was 30,000, so most likely Trump already is at or exceeding his final vote spread in Sumter of +30,000 votes.

    197. Stonewall DW says:

      Four more polls eager to HERD to the media narrative as controlled by NY Times and Silver’s grading.

      What is interesting is these are REGISTERED samples, not likely voters. Also they are mostly days taken PRIOR to the last debate. Even so, they don’t show that great of numbers for Biden.

      Univision/University of Houston/Latino Decisions/North Star Opinion Research

      PENNSYLVANIA
      OCT 17-25, 2020
      723 RV

      Biden 50%
      Trump 45%

      TEXAS
      OCT 17-25, 2020

      758 RV

      Biden 46%
      Trump 49%

      FLORIDA
      OCT 17-25, 2020

      743 RV

      Biden 49%
      Trump 46%

      ARIZONA
      OCT 17-25, 2020

      725 RV

      Biden 50%
      Trump 45%

    198. JeffS says:

      Black Matter Lives

      All Matter Lives

      Therefore black is all that matters?

    199. mnw says:

      200 Gordon

      I wasn’t questioning anything you said.

      The point I was making was, when Trump was at 46% in 2016, & if you re-ran that election 10 times, Hillary would’ve been POTUS on half those simulations, I think. 2016 is not replicable if Trump is at 46.

      I think we’re saying about the same thing. It’s an alternative reality to assume Biden will get what Zero got in 2008.

    200. Smack says:

      All Early Voting – Florida
      ———-

      OCT 28th / 5:30am

      DEM: 2,821,211 41.13%

      GOP: 2,573,233 37.51%

      Oct 28th / 1:00pm

      DEM: 2,920,459 40.75%

      GOP: 2,691,562 37.69%

    201. George says:

      As Rush just said – Biden gets trashed by his former business associate on national TV last night. Not a peep of denial out of Biden. Not a peep of reporting from MSM.

    202. Michelle Obama vs the DNC buffet table says:

      NYT journo who grew up in Pennsylvania says the polls don’t match what he sees happening on the ground

      “This is what everyone is trying to figure out: Is the Trumpmania here restricted to a fortissimo minority circling the drain, or is it a blinking red warning sign that the polls are, once again, badly discombobulated?”

      https://twitchy.com/gregp-3534/2020/10/28/nyt-journo-who-grew-up-in-pennsylvania-says-the-polls-dont-match-what-he-sees-happening-on-the-ground/

    203. JeffS says:

      As a Michigan resident, I apologize profusely for the theatrics of our beloved guv, Gretchen Whiner. Now she’s complaining that every time Trump brings up her name, she receives more death threats. She’s spending 1.5 million to put up a security fence around the Gov mansion. Never needed before and won’t be needed after 2022 when she’s one-termed outta here. She jumped on the Biden bus before noticing it had no wheels.

    204. BRENT says:

      Cotto/Gottfried
      @CottoGottfried
      ·
      1h
      In Florida, the remaining super-voters (folks who voted in four out of the four previous election cycles) …

      Dem — 318,743

      GOP — 574,811

      No need to worry about GOP voter cannibalization, needless to say.

    205. Smack says:

      All Early Voting – Florida
      ———-

      OCT 28th / 5:30am

      DEM: 2,821,211 41.13%

      GOP: 2,573,233 37.51%

      Oct 28th / 1:00pm

      DEM: 2,920,459 40.75%

      GOP: 2,691,562 37.69%

      Oct 28th / 1:15pm

      DEM: 2,914,939 40.73%

      GOP: 2,697,428 37.69%

    206. Robbie says:

      jason says:
      October 28, 2020 at 1:48 pm
      I know Robbie thinks suburban women are stupid airheads that don’t vote on policy, but actually by now people understand what they are voting for.

      – Nice try, but that’s not what I said. I said suburban voters, especially women, just don’t like Trump and that’s why it appears they’re going to vote against him.

      Secondly, I said the voters who decide elections, the middle 10%-15% of the electorate, don’t vote on policy. They vote on personality.

    207. NYCmike says:

      https://stream.org/the-landslide-america-will-be-glad-to-have/

      -As I said 4 years ago, I feel very relaxed leading up to Election day. There are 2 options: Trump wins, or Biden wins.

      Either way, I will wake up the next day and go to work. Difference is, depending upon who wins, decisions moving forward will be made according to the reality of each candidates policy preferences.

      If Trump wins, we will look to expand our business, continue what we have been doing for the last 4 years, etc.

      If Biden wins, any expansion will be put on hold, and we will look into doing more and more work done with cash and/or bartering for services. New employee opportunities will be put on hold, any expenditures pushed off unless absolutely necessary.

      I also mentioned 4 years ago picking up a different language. I probably should have done that in either circumstance, but due to the large amount of business the last 4 years, that was put on hold. If Biden wins, it will probably be a good time to work less, study and learn more.

      Prediction: same as 4 years ago: Trump wins.

      I will give the breakdown on Monday.

    208. Sheeple,Jr. says:

      With respect to the GA Poll from Monmouth, the Democrats’ leads are fully comprised of Independents going to the Democrats by 30 pts. Garbage!

    209. Tina says:

      Peoples Pundit Daily
      @PPDNews
      · 1m
      Pfizer Will Submit Coronavirus Vaccine Application to FDA in November for Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) https://ppdnews.us/Pm13RXg

    210. Smack says:

      All Early Voting – Florida
      ——-

      Try this again..

      OCT 28th / 5:30am

      DEM: 2,821,211 41.13%

      GOP: 2,573,233 37.51%

      Oct 28th / 1:20pm

      DEM: 2,914,939 40.73%

      GOP: 2,697,428 37.69%

      GOP +31,000

    211. NYCmike says:

      Smack, as much as I like to see lower numbers for the Democrats, I am pretty sure once you count them they need to stay counted.

      After all, we are NOT Democrats. (h/t Don Barzini)

    212. Victrc says:

      All this surge in cases talk is nothing but scare tactics to affect the election.

      Of course we have a surge in cases, over the past three days we are averaging over 1.1M tests a day, or about 8M a week.

      Compare that to when we were doing 500k and the numbers don’t look as bad.

      Yet the msm and left do not qualify the number of cases with the number of tests which is disingenuous at best!!

    213. lisab says:

      just for thought

      in 2016

      wi, mi, az and mn had substantial third party votes

      with libertarians getting between 3 & 4% and the greens getting 1%

      that should be less this time i would think

    214. Smack says:

      NYCMike,

      I’m not sure why I keep making mistakes to be honest with you. And I seem to only catch my mistakes right after I post..LOL!

    215. hugh says:

      so the 12:02 update has rep picking up over 30K net votes.

      Here is where I sit right now. I am tired of looking at any of the msm polls. Unless they somehow tie very closely to actual votes cast by dems and rep as percentage in the state and with the participants in the polls. Its just more of the same. Keep up the narrative.

      From what I am hearing MI is going very well for trump. My feeling is if trump gets one of the three blue states he got last time he will likely get them all. Enthusiasm matters or it doesnt. Which is it? I think it matters.

    216. hugh says:

      Now over 31K in Fl. Also, St lucia EV gap % compared to 2016 has now flipped to trump. I expect two more to flip today, Broward and Osceola. Palm Beach and Polk will likely flip tomorrow or Friday.

    217. NYCmike says:

      “They vote on personality.”

      -Explains JEB!2016.

      Come on, man!

      Had to throw that out there 1 more time, for old times sake!

    218. Sheeple,Jr. says:

      Vote Time:
      The most ridiculous Poll of the day:

      Monmouth- Biden +4 in GA based on a 30 pt.lead with Independents that trump carried by 13 pts. in 2016

      WP/ABC- Biden +17 in Wisconsin

      Rasmussen(less)- Trump +1 nationally

      Other- please explain

      My vote is for Other based on whatever Quinnipian claims later today

    219. Smack says:

      GOP is running a touch behind in Florida today vs last 2 days but I believe it was to be expected in that a few red counties were limiting early voting today because of storm coming through.

      The question is can GOP pick up another 16,000 to get within 200,000 with 5 days to go in Early Voting?

    220. Robbie says:

      Victrc says:
      October 28, 2020 at 2:25 pm
      All this surge in cases talk is nothing but scare tactics to affect the election.

      Of course we have a surge in cases, over the past three days we are averaging over 1.1M tests a day, or about 8M a week.

      Compare that to when we were doing 500k and the numbers don’t look as bad.

      Yet the msm and left do not qualify the number of cases with the number of tests which is disingenuous at best!!

      – I agree with much of this, but it does seem to me some of the increase can’t be explained solely due to testing. And let’s be honest, it’s the Fall. Upper respiratory illnesses always spread more easily in the Fall so an increase was expected.

      There are certainly areas where the cases are going up and that continues to be the Upper Midwest and Plains. In the Sunbelt, the increases have been small and nothing like what we saw in the Summer. Same for the Northeast so far. That implies there is some level of immunity within the population that’s preventing larger increases.

      That said, I do expect within the next few weeks for the press to being to call for new shutdowns and more than a few governors will comply and impose them. Fauci is licking his chops at the possibility of more pseudoscience.

    221. NYCmike says:

      “That said, I do expect within the next few weeks for the press to being to call for new shutdowns and more than a few governors will comply and impose them.”

      -I expect Wuhan stories to largely disappear after November 4th, except in the days before Thanksgiving and maybe Christmas (are we still allowed to use that word?).

    222. hugh says:

      I think 16K is very doable. As of right now the information is as of the 12:22 vote dump. For some reason they get caught up later in the day. We will see

    223. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      225. Agree. You cannot compare cases based on testing numbers from past dates unless the same amount of test were done then as now. A lot of those who test positive now are young people who were not being tested as much in the past.

    224. Tina says:

      Greta Wall
      @GretaLWall
      ·
      42m
      #NEW President Trump hosts a surprise press conference in Las Vegas with local business leaders.

      The Nevada Trucking Association, the Retail Association of Nevada and the Associated Builders and Contractors endorse his re-election bid.

    225. jason says:

      Robbie is not exactly the sharpest knife in the drawer, is he?

      LOL

      “I know Robbie thinks suburban women are stupid airheads that don’t vote on policy, but actually by now people understand what they are voting for”.

      – “Nice try, but that’s not what I said. I said suburban voters, especially women, just don’t like Trump and that’s why it appears they’re going to vote against him.”

      You can’t make this sh-t up.

      But let’s remind Robbie what the election is about, rather than “personalities”.

      Democratic Party Platform:
      1) Anti-Police
      2) Pro-Looting
      3) Sieze retirement savings
      4) Sieze guns
      5) Pro-illegal immigration
      6) Rural America must bail out the failed Democrat cities
      7) If you are not a person of color, you are a racist whether you want to be or not.
      8) Pro-mutilation of young children
      9) Open prison doors and let them all go free
      10) End the free speech of anyone who dissents
      11) Anti-National Anthem
      12) Pro-Mail out ballots to all people: citizens, non-citizens, living, and dead.
      13) Pro-anarchy
      14) Pro-cancel culture
      15) Pro-rationing of gov’t controlled healthcare
      16) Pro-Force taxpayers to pay off student loan debt instead of the students who took the loans.
      17) Pro-“Green” new deal to devastate the economy with crippling regulations and destroy the energy industry.
      18) Pro-“Republicans are enemies of the state” (so aim your weapons at them carefully)
      19) Endless mob violence unless you vote Democrats into office
      20) Pro-never ending shut downs to keep everyone under government control
      21) Pro-send millions of jobs back to China
      22) Pro-never ending of jobless benefits
      23) Pro-living wage
      24) DC to become 51st state
      25) Anti-Peace in the middle east
      26) Pro-sex with minors
      27) Anti-vaccine until after the election.
      28) Pro-replacing lower court system with lynch mobs.
      29) Pro-Packing the SCOTUS with commies
      30) Promised to BAN fracking
      31) Promise to END THE OIL INDUSTRY
      32) Taxpayer funded ‘cunity’ college for all

    226. Robbie says:

      NYCmike says:
      October 28, 2020 at 2:46 pm
      “That said, I do expect within the next few weeks for the press to being to call for new shutdowns and more than a few governors will comply and impose them.”

      -I expect Wuhan stories to largely disappear after November 4th, except in the days before Thanksgiving and maybe Christmas (are we still allowed to use that word?).

      – The reason I disagree is the press will want things to look as bad as possible before Biden takes over in January 2021 and then any improvement can be attributed to him.

    227. NYCmike says:

      “– The reason I disagree is the press will want things to look as bad as possible before Biden takes over in January 2021 and then any improvement can be attributed to him.”

      -I disagree because I see a re-election of the current Republican President.

    228. Tina says:

      Lol

      Unbound News Network
      @unbound_news
      ·
      1h
      #BREAKING: Sources inside the Biden campaign say the Florida situation is becoming “hopeless.”

    229. John says:

      New Wisconsin poll from Traflagar…
      Biden 47.5
      Trump 47.1
      https://twitter.com/trafalgar_group?lang=en

    230. Stonewall DW says:

      I thought the Souls to Polls was going to rescue Florida?

    231. Sheeple,Jr. says:

      Jon Ralston is getting nervous about the Nevada early vote. Good sign for the Trumpster.

    232. Tina says:

      The jebots’ obumbler was supposed to rescue Florida.

      Hm and the 12 honking cars.

    233. Chicon says:

      251 – Smack, I think the GOP is in good shape right now, to be honest. Assuming a split of crossovers and indies, the R’s are 215k. Joeisdone calculates that the R’s have 250k more super voters available. Assuming they vote for their own party, the R’s are ahead of the game. Plus, I believe (because of the D message to vote by mail and the R message to vote in person) that there are more R votes waiting. All conjecture, of course…

    234. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      There does not appear to be much fear of coronavirus among the young, and a growing resentment it is ruining their lives. A substantial number of college football teams had seen it run its course among players, and they are back on the field.

      Some college students are even earning money off the virus: “Brigham Young University’s campus in Idaho said this week it is investigating claims that some students are “intentionally” trying to get sick with COVID-19 in order to sell their plasma for cash.” They are threatening to expel any student caught doing it.

    235. Tina says:

      Mnw, you may want to check out the crowd size in Bulhead.

      Rally to start soon.

    236. Tina says:

      Yikes, so fallaci is wrong?

      Squawk Box
      @SquawkCNBC
      · 7h
      “This is behaving a lot like SARS and MERS in that the antibody response doesn’t last for a sustained period of time but you’re seeing a robust T-cell response,” says @ScottGottliebMD. “The presumption is you’re going to have durable immunity from other immune cells.”

    237. Smack says:

      I would agree Chicon…..since I’ve been saying this since Oct 21st.

    238. JeffS says:

      Will Bloomberg demand a refund?

    239. dblaikie says:

      Well the dem lead statewide in Nevada is now just around 47000. This is being driven by a GOP tidal wave in the “cow counties.” In early voting the rural counties are up the GOP by 30000 votes! The gap in Washoe county is closing every day and will close to even when early voting is over. Trump, in spite of the fear of fraud, has a great chance to flip Nevada. For those of you who have money to spend go to predicit on put some money down for Trump to win the Silver State.

    240. Tina says:

      But, I thought fallaci “preferred” the other test.

      Phil Kerpen
      @kerpen
      ·
      16m
      Excellent interview of Dr. Birx by
      @scotthennen
      here:
      https://am1100theflag.com/news/23442-scott-visits-dr-deborah-birx-recap-her-visit-bismarck-week…

      Most important part around 11:37: Birx agrees that PCR live-dead virus problems and recommends antigen testing, with PCR used only for confirmation of positives.

    241. Tina says:

      Dblaikie, he received some endorsements in Nevada.

      I posted it earlier.

    242. NYCmike says:

      https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/10/the-supreme-court-now.php

      -Let’s get some cases in front of these justices!!

      “When the Chief Justice is in the dissent, the most senior Justice in the majority gets to assign the writing of the opinion. In the new Court, Justice Thomas may frequently be that Justice.

      Taranto speculates, however, that in some cases, Roberts might join the majority in order to maintain control over the opinion writing.”

    243. michael corlone says:

      Poor Ralston. NV moving to DJT. He won’t win, but trend is good to extrapolate to other states.

      https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-3

    244. GatorBJ says:

      Ruh roh.

      Jennifer Epstein
      @jeneps
      ·
      2h
      Confirmed: Joe Biden and Barack Obama will reunite to rally together in Michigan on Saturday, per person familiar.

      —————————————
      Just a reminder…

      In his memoir, Deputy National Security Advisor Ben Rhodes wrote about being with Barack Obama when the Clinton campaign requested that the President visit Michigan on the day before the 2016 election.

      “Michigan?” President Obama responded, “That’s not good.”

      —————————————
      Chomp chomp chomp….

    245. hugh says:

      big catch up on FL votes. Finally caught up and at 3:02 Reps picked up net so far 34K plus. Probably should get over 40 today but not 50K.

    246. SoHope says:

      #248 Russian interference!
      /sarc

    247. NYCmike says:

      “He won’t win, but trend is good to extrapolate to other states.”

      -Fight in every state, NO DOUBT, but why is it “Poor Ralston.” if you know NOW that Nevada will still go to Biden?

    248. dblaikie says:

      One thing is for sure as far as Nevada goes. They are going to need a much bigger statewide lead than the 47000. But with the GOP dominating early in person voting and mail in voting drying up I don’t think they are going to get anywhere near the cushion they need to stem the red tide on election day.

    249. mnw says:

      242 Tina

      Thx!

      It will be hard going on impossible for any Trump rally to top the one in Lansing, MI, though.

    250. Tina says:

      Yup, that Lansing rally was large

    251. GF says:

      Waingro says:

      October 28, 2020 at 1:21 pm

      “Marquette

      Biden 48
      Trump 43
      Jorgensen 2
      Won’t answer 8”

      That doesn’t quite add up.

      In Canadian Math it sure does! 101%!

    252. Waingro says:

      “Poor Ralston. NV moving to DJT. He won’t win, but trend is good to extrapolate to other states.”

      That’s a great way of looking at it. Same thing happened in 2016. He ended up just a bit short out there, but we know what happened elsewhere.

    253. NYCmike says:

      Tina,

      That’s the sliced bread guy again.

    254. NYCmike says:

      Loved him, but want to see the AZ crowd.

    255. lisab says:

      scotus reject appeal Wisconsin ballot case, all ballots received within 3 days of the election will be counted

      looks like barrett voted with roberts and the liberal majority on that

    256. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      242. “The presumption is you’re going to have durable immunity from other immune cells.”

      And if you have a fully functioning immune system, you may already have immunity. The virus is hitting those who are elderly or have health issues. An example is Sweden; here is an age breakdown of the 5,918 total deaths from a couple of days ago.

      Below age 60: 74 deaths
      Above age 80: 4,002 deaths
      Ages 70-79: 1,269 deaths
      Pretty close to 90% of deaths are above age 70.

      Sweden right now is in the middle of a second wave of infections. The number of people testing positive for the virus has skyrocketed, but it is mainly younger people. The death rate has not risen and remains the same as it was at the beginning of August 1st As of October 27 the three day and seven day average was 2 deaths. Still the high case rate is a cause for concern, and Sweden is taking steps to counteract it.

    257. Tina says:

      Whoops, sorry, Az crowd, they said it’s part of the over flow?

      https://twitter.com/RSBNetwork/status/1321523210274459648

    258. Chicon says:

      Lisa stirring the pot again!

    259. SoHope says:

      On the WI case do they have to be postmarked 10/3 atleast?

    260. NYCmike says:

      #263 – Link?

    261. Tina says:

      Biden says Delaware basement, Piglosi.

      Quote Tweet

      Jake Sherman
      @JakeSherman
      · 18m
      Pelosi says Biden should campaign in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin in the closing days of this campaign.

    262. Robbie says:

      Jake Tapper
      @jaketapper
      Former DHS chief of staff @MilesTaylorUSA is the author of the NYT oped and book by “Anonymous” — more on CNN coming up

      – LOL.

    263. Stonewall DW says:

      If Trump wins and matches the map of Robert Barnes (the 2016 states plus MN and NH), then the narrative of the night will be:

      1) What happened to the youth vote? They failed to show up, and what did show up tilted more toward Trump than expected.

      2) MEN showed up, and how.

      3) We had no idea that Trump was doing so well among AAs and Latinos, because it never showed up in the polling.

      4) How could it be the rural vote was hiding in plain sight two presidential elections in a row and we didn’t see it again? How come they never showed up in the polling?

      5) What happened to the Biden ground game? Where was it?

      These questions all revolve around the problem with polling. We are basically a society that can no longer be polled.

      It is now nearly impossible to get representative samples. There are those who simply refuse to be polled because they HATE the lying media and will have nothing to do with the games they play. There are those who will lie to pollsters because they fear retribution if their voting preference becomes known. Finally, the disdain many in the rural flyover country have for the coastal media elites is nowhere near as strong as the HATE the media elites have for those rural voters. It is beyond a broken relationship.

      Imagine a marriage counselor trying to get to the bottom of a troubled marriage so as to help, but both spouses hate the counselor more than they hate each other. That’s where we are with the media trying to poll the electorate. It is no longer possible, which is why Gallup and Pew have stopped trying.

    264. Smack says:

      Florida

      OCT 28th / 5:30am

      DEM: 2,821,211 41.13%

      GOP: 2,573,233 37.51%

      Oct 28th / 2:30pm

      DEM: 2,932,893 40.67%

      GOP: 2 720,506 37.72%

      GOP gaining pace again….

    265. Waingro says:

      “scotus reject appeal Wisconsin ballot case, all ballots received within 3 days of the election will be counted

      looks like barrett voted with roberts and the liberal majority on that”

      Huh? SCOTUS just ruled on WI ballot decision yesterday and overturned lib federal judge. Where are you seeing this??

    266. Tina says:

      Now, you know why he is Az? 3 miles to Laughlin, Nv.

      This will bleed into S. Nevada

      Steve Herman
      @W7VOA
      · 1m
      “Six days from now we’re going to win Arizona, we’re going to win Nevada,” predicts @POTUS at a campaign rally in Bullhead City, AZ. #Election2020

    267. Stonewall DW says:

      lisab, you didn’t make me look.

    268. lisab says:

      Lisa stirring the pot again! 🙂
      ———————————-

      when the hurlyburly’s done,
      when the battle’s lost and won.

      fair is foul, and foul is fair:
      hover through the fog and filthy air.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M2YAjOoXDFM

    269. Tina says:

      Miles who?

      Never heard of him.

      And who cares.

    270. Chicon says:

      The Wisconsin case was a few days ago – it was a 5-3 vote (Roberts and the conservatives, with no Barret) supporting the Republican position that ballots needed to arrive by election night.

      PA case still to come.

    271. Waingro says:

      #276, heh. I didn’t realized you sometimes trolled hard on here. I will be ready next time!!

    272. lisab says:

      #276, heh. I didn’t realized you sometimes trolled hard on here. I will be ready next time!!
      ————————–

      made you look 🙂

    273. mnw says:

      265 Tina

      Holy skit. That IS a big crowd!

      What that reporter said in post 207!

    274. Michelle Obama vs the DNC buffet table says:

      @271

      You forgot the big one I am already hearing from my friends:

      6) Russia stole the election again

    275. Robbie says:

      It’s a massive embarrassment the NTY gave some nobody like Miles Taylor the platform to write under anonymous and claim he was a high ranking figure.

    276. lisab says:

      actually it will be interesting to see how she votes

      but …

      i don’t follow that election stuff at all, i just see it here

    277. Waingro says:

      #280, you did. Won’t happen again!!

    278. Tina says:

      I think there is at least 60,000 people, there.

      Just a guess though, no,clue.

    279. lisab says:

      waingro,

      to be clear, i only troll for fun

      i am not trying to suppress your vote by gas-lighting you

      or making you depressed over trump’s chances

      i hope you vote and i hope you vote your conscience.

    280. Stonewall DW says:

      So with the strong GOP numbers in FL, which even leftists are noticing, what does that say of these pollsters and their accuracy?

      HarrisX, Suffolk – Tie

      Univ of N. Florida – Biden +1

      FAU, YouGov, St. Pete’s, RMG Research, CNN/SSRS – Biden +2

      Emerson College, Mason-Dixon, Data for Progress (D), Monmouth U. – Biden +3

      Civiqs/Kos, IPSOS – Biden +4

      Change Research (D), Cherry Communications, Redfield and Wilton (D), Siena College/NY Times – Biden +5

      St. Leo University, Hart Research (D) – Biden +6

      Morning Consult (D), Clearview Research – Biden +7

      Quinnipiac – Biden +11

      Some of these will end up being off from 2 to 13 points on the spread.

    281. mnw says:

      276 lisab

      The weird sisters. Very Halloween-appropriate.

      I love that scene, btw. Orson Welles said that whenever you quote from Macbeth, you have to turn around three times in a tight circle immediately, to ward off the bad luck you’re inviting.

    282. Waingro says:

      #287, I realize that lisa. I know you are a long time, respected poster here and enjoy lots of your posts. I wouldn’t think anything different.

      I am just very gullible!

    283. mnw says:

      288

      Question: “What does that say of these pollsters and their accuracy?”

      Answer: They stink on ice!

    284. Sy says:

      I think Trump will win FL by 3-5 pts.

    285. lisab says:

      whenever you quote from ** the scottish play **

      ——————-

      it is 2020 … you cannot mess with bad luck like that!

    286. Robbie says:

      Macron just ordered France into a four week shutdown.

      After the election, I look for Democrat governors to try the same here.

    287. NYCmike says:

      “Answer: They stink on ice!”

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h0iAcQVIokg

    288. NYCmike says:

      Macron is dealing with lockdowns alongside protests because he DARED to support the lessons of open dialogue the teacher who was beheaded by a radical islamist was trying to teach.

    289. Tina says:

      Lol

      Piers Morgan
      @piersmorgan
      · 20m
      BREAKING: The person known as ‘Anonymous’ who trashed Trump in the New York Times 2yrs ago has finally gone public – and revealed himself as someone we’ve never heard of.

    290. Tina says:

      See new Tweets
      Conversation

      Jonathan Swan
      @jonathanvswan
      It’s an embarrassment.
      Quote Tweet

      Susan Hennessey
      @Susan_Hennessey
      · 25m
      Leaving aside how one feels about Taylor’s actions, I’m not sure that the NY Times decision to grant a DHS chief of staff anonymity for that op-ed and to describe him as a “senior administration official” holds up especially well.
      Show this thread

    291. hugh says:

      So there is a pattern that keeps repeating itself. EV improves for republicans and the guys who got 2016 produce favorable polls. Predictit moves our way. Then the msm polls that got it all wrong in 2016 come up with wildly ridiculous results and we hear from the trolls and predictit moves a little back towards the dems. Then another day of voting happens that does not support the msm narrative and predictit moves favorably to reps. And then repeat. Each time though it is 2 steps forward for us and one back. Yet the only support for Biden doing well are these msm polls that are mostly so far away from reality that you just have to shake your head.

    292. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      Here are some of Newsom’s social gathering rules we now have in California:

      “Gatherings that include more than 3 households are prohibited. This includes everyone present, including hosts and guests. Remember, the smaller the number of people, the safer.
      Keep the households that you interact with stable over time. By spending time with the same people, risk of transmission is reduced. Participating in multiple gatherings with different households or groups is strongly discouraged.

      The host should collect names of all attendees and contact information in case contact tracing is needed later.

      Wear a Face Covering to Keep COVID-19 from Spreading

      When gathering, face coverings must be worn in accordance with the CDPH Guidance on the Use of Face Coverings (PDF), unless an exemption is applicable.

      People at gatherings may remove their face coverings briefly to eat or drink as long as they stay at least 6 feet away from everyone outside their own household, and put their face covering back on as soon as they are done with the activity.

      Face coverings can also be removed to meet urgent medical needs (for example, to use an asthma inhaler, take medication, or if feeling light-headed).”

    293. Robbie says:

      *Walter Bloomberg
      @DeItaone
      **FAUCI SAYS VACCINE WON’T BE AVAILABLE UNTIL JAN. AT EARLIEST

      – Right on cue, Fauci shoots his disgusting mouth off because he doesn’t want to lose his importance.

      Give him another medal of freedom, right?

    294. Tina says:

      Peoples_Pundit
      @Peoples_Pundit
      · 1m
      Donald Trump and Joe Biden are about even in North Carolina on who voters trust to handle the coronavirus.

      That’s by far one of the president’s best results out of any state we’ve polled.

      Have to say, it’s easy to get the feeling people are over @RoyCooperNC / DEM lockdowns.

    295. Smack says:

      All Early Voting – Florida
      ———

      OCT 28th / 5:30am

      DEM: 2,821,211 41.13%

      GOP: 2,573,233 37.51%

      Oct 28th / 3:10pm

      DEM: 2,940,739 40.64%

      GOP: 2,730 549 37.74%

    296. Robbie says:

      Fauci has one goal at this point. Make sure Trump loses. And to accomplish that, he’s going to slow down any approval for a vaccine as long as he can. My guess is he wants the approval decisions to be made by Biden people in hopes any approval can be pushed back to next Summer at the earliest.

      Anyone who trusts Fauci deserves to be mocked.

    297. Waingro says:

      #302, just waiting for my new favorite troll to pounce!

    298. Gordon Allen says:

      Does anyone get the feeling people are ” polled” out; sick of hearing about them,and perhaps answering them. As it was the response rate was historically low to begin with.
      I’m tired of writing about them. Wouldn’t it be great to have a 72 hour moratorium before the election? No such luck I’m afraid.

    299. Dylan says:

      Does Biden even have a “stump speech”?

    300. LewisS says:

      Miami Dade update:

      Thus far, 56% of Rs in Miami Dade have voted versus only 50% of Ds. Enthusiasm seems to be on the R side.

      Rs are already only 29.3% away from their entire 2016 raw count in Miami Dade (and this doesn’t include Independents voting R).

      Ds are still 49.2% away from their 2016 raw count in Miami Dade.

      Miami Dade turnout is underperforming in a big way as compared to solid R counties such as Collier, Sumter, Lee.

    301. mnw says:

      295 NYC

      I intended to reference that scene when I posted 291, btw.

    302. mnw says:

      309 Lewis

      That would be consistent with what either Baris or Calaly (can’t recall which) said: “Our polling finds that Biden’s support is highest among those least likely to vote.”

    303. Tina says:

      Robby Starbuck
      @robbystarbuck
      · 4m
      Don’t let @nytimes off the hook. They purposefully misled the country into thinking a notable senior Trump admin official was plotting against him when in fact it was an unknown Obama donor, Miles Taylor, from DHS. They knew what they were doing and it’s not journalism.

    304. Dr. Doom says:

      Tick – tock

      NY Post (first)
      Byron York
      Rush
      WSJ Editorial Page
      Kimberley Strassel
      Tucker Carlson
      Newsweek
      Outkick
      Who’s next?

      Tick – tock

    305. Robbie says:

      On election night around 8 o’clock, Trump needs to fire Anthony Fauci.

    306. Tina says:

      Was miles whatever their October surprise uh dud?

    307. NYCmike says:

      “#302, just waiting for my new favorite troll to pounce!”

      -I agree with Waingro, the parody poster “Baris” has been good for a couple of laughs!

    308. LewisS says:

      More on Miami Dade v Collier, Lee and Sumter:

      In 2016, in combining the votes from these 4 counties, Hillary beat Trump by 149,000 votes (+290,000 advantage in Miami-D, – 141,000 in Collier, Lee, Sumter.)

      As it stands today: Republicans lead the raw ballot count in those 4 counties by 30,000 … a difference of +179,000 for Rs.

      Yes, yes, I know it’s still early but this is encouraging.

    309. NYCmike says:

      “I intended to reference that scene when I posted 291, btw.”

      -I got you covered, pissboy.*

      *Another scene!

    310. mnw says:

      NYC

      Another great scene. Movie was full of them.

    311. PresidentPaul! says:

      Watching alex jones episode on joe rogan that aired this week that is causing controvery.

      The sidekick has a free gislaine shirt becauee he “believes all woman” lol.

      Jones was telling joe rogan about the epstein island last time as well.

    312. JeffP says:

      When I looks at these early numbers and reliable polling in battleground states I cannot help but think Biden has NO Ground Game…Trump apparently has an army.

      Glad to see Ras +1

      Baris is getting me excited about the reality of the situation in his polling and analysis.

      When was the last time a candidate had confidence regarding winning Florida almost a week out?

    313. NYCmike says:

      Why didn’t Rudy go on Joe Rogan? He could have brought the hard drive with him and a laptop.

    314. Sy says:

      Kevin McCollough (picked a razor close electoral map in 16 and Obama in 08 and 12) says he has Biden and Trump’s internals, which show the same thing: DT +3 in PA, FL, and AZ, +2 in NC and MI, and tied in WI. He thinks DT will pick off MN and NV. We shall see.

      https://twitter.com/mc_reewithcheez/status/1321551578663407617?s=20

    315. LewisS says:

      Richard Baris predicts a last minute Oct surprise to deflect away from the Biden scandal(s).

      They usually drop on the Thursday eve before the election, yes? Wasn’t that when the W drunk driving “scandal” was dropped? (Simpler times….)

    316. NYCmike says:

      “Another great scene. Movie was full of them.”

      -I was golfing with childhood buddies this past weekend. Between that movie, Blazing Saddles and Caddyshack we were laughing on every hole we played!

    317. Gatorjoel says:

      Since you all like looking at Predictit, Trump is cratering there in all swing states such as GA, AZ, WI, MI and NC and even FL. You all are in for a dark 4 years!!

    318. Smack says:

      All Early Voting – Florida

      ———-

      Oct 28th / 3:45pm

      DEM: 2,947,675 40.61%

      GOP: 2,740,689 37.76%

    319. PresidentPaul! says:

      Last episode was alex jones, and now he’s putting on glenn greenwald this week.

      He’s killing it

      This is why rogan has #1 podcast.

    320. PresidentPaul! says:

      Ive been a big greenwald fan for decades.

    321. Stonewall DW says:

      “Kevin McCollough (picked a razor close electoral map in 16 and Obama in 08 and 12) says he has Biden and Trump’s internals, which show the same thing: DT +3 in PA, FL, and AZ, +2 in NC and MI, and tied in WI. He thinks DT will pick off MN and NV. We shall see.”

      Almost exactly the same as Robert Barnes except Barns has MN and NH as flips to Trump and not NV, due to the fraud there.

    322. Tina says:

      The Rsbn radio crew said it’s the largest crowd evah.

      No #s given.

      Here is Dans Scavinos tweet

      https://twitter.com/DanScavino/status/1321547613125013504

    323. Stonewall DW says:

      wow, GOP killing it in FL in the last hour, the gap now just 206986

    324. phoenixrisen says:

      Gator, Biden is getting crushed in Florida and Ohio. Since you’re a noob at this, here is one thing I will clue you in on: University pollsters like Newport University in VA, Quinnipiac, Monmouth, Marist, etc. are worthless as they are based on grossly exaggerated turnout models nowhere grounded in reality. If Florida and Ohio are as solidly red as they are, Biden doesn’t have a snowball’s chance in the South. What Biden has to be worries about now is the Rust Belt as Trump is in great shape there and now Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico have come into play with Hispanic populations. Arizona is well gone as well. AP Wash Po and Reuters are throwing in the kitchen sink with today’s rescue pills trying to create the false narrative that Biden is putting it away. However, registration, in person EV, and VBM clearly indicate Biden is going to lose badly on Tuesday.

    325. Pitchaboy says:

      October surprise has dropped: Europe shutting down. Markets reacting to it.

    326. PresidentPaul! says:

      Biden was campaigning in georgia for the senate candidate there.

      Anyone think dems will win that senate seat?

    327. Baris says:

      “Baris is getting me excited about the reality of the situation in his polling and analysis.”

      What can I say. I’m an exciting guy who produces exciting polls.

      Mo’ money, mo’ exciting polls. This is no time to be frugal. Send money now. It will be money well spent, I can guarantee that.

    328. NYCmike says:

      #336 – BANG for your buck!

    329. Country Dick Montana says:

      The “Baris” guy is funny. For some reason think that he might actually be one of the regular posters who isn’t a troll.

      The trolls aren’t that funny, except for RidinBiden’s.

    330. Gordon Allen says:

      Again,saw Trump in Arzona. If he’s behind 17 in Wisconsin etc., nobody has told him

    331. Country Dick Montana says:

      With regard to Big Tech. There is talk of modifying Section 230 which is fine. If yu want to really screw them, make a an individual’s data it’s own property. Pass Laws citing “Privacy” and force BT to pay for the ability to track you.

    332. Tina says:

      No, the October surprise uh dud is somebody named Miles.

      Nobody knows who he is.

      Lol.

      Great job, jebots.

    333. Robbie says:

      Pitchaboy says:
      October 28, 2020 at 4:57 pm
      October surprise has dropped: Europe shutting down. Markets reacting to it.

      – In France, there were already signs the new increases were slowing or topping. Unless their hospitals were in serious danger of overrun, I think this was a big mistake.

      Still, watch out this to happen in parts of the US after election day.

    334. GF says:

      If Biden was leading by 17 in WI, he’d be cruising nationally, with the result pretty much sealed by the time CA closes at 8PM PST.

      If that was what was in store, we would not be seeing Dems saying stuff like this;

      http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/senate-democrats-we-may-not-know-the-winner-on-election-night-thats-ok/vi-BB1asAQh?ocid=ientp

    335. Barry says:

      Hannity mention that something might drop from NY Times and Washington Post on Sunday as the October surprise to take the Monday and Election Day news cycle. He said that he does not know what it is. I guess we will see.

    336. Tina says:

      Miles whatever was not the Dhs chief of staff.

      He was a nobody at Dhs. Not even a senior admin. official.

      Even the confederate cooler, cheeseburger, and tax lien club refused to hire hi,

    337. Sy says:

      If Biden is leading 17 pts in WI, he can put a lid on the campaign until election night.

    338. Jeff G. says:

      #344, No matter if fabricated and obviously false, all MSM outlets will report it in perfect step with one another as if it is irrefutable truth.

    339. Robbie says:

      PA appeal failed for a second time 5-3. Barrett did not participate.

    340. Jeff Toobin says:

      “What can I say. I’m an exciting guy who produces exciting polls.”

      Now you got me all excited. Anyone want to fap with me?

      fap fap fap. Hey is this cam on? Sh!t

    341. Waingro says:

      #348, and after getting savaged yesterday for his Kavanaugh ruling, he joins the libs in the majority. Ugh.

    342. Robbie says:

      Steven Mazie
      @stevenmazie
      BREAKING: Supreme Court *rejects* Pennsylvania Republicans’ second attempt to block extended ballot deadline.

    343. Notorious ACB says:

      Tee Hee. I punked you all.

      Biden / Harris 2020!

    344. Tina says:

      Quote Tweet

      Henry Rodgers
      @henryrodgersdc
      · 23m
      SCOOP: @DailyCaller has learned that The Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee has SUCCESSFULLY verified all materials reviewed so far from Hunter Biden’s ex-business partner Tony Bobulinski. Read more here:

      https://dailycaller.com/2020/10/28/senate-committee-successfully-verifies-bobulinski-materials-to-date/

    345. Tina says:

      Matthew Herper
      @matthewherper
      · 19m
      $REGN says its antibody cocktail reduced Covid-19 related medical visits by by 57%.

      (through day 29 — 2.8% combined dose groups; 6.5% placebo; p=0.024).

      https://investor.regeneron.com/news-releases/news-release-details/regenerons-covid-19-outpatient-trial-prospectively-demonstrates/

    346. Greymarch says:

      Newest Marquette WI poll:

      Biden 48
      Trump 43.

      In 2016, the final Marquette WI poll was:
      Hilary 46,
      Trump 40.

      https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2016/11/02/mlsp41release/

      Marquette poll certainly has a better record than the WaPo at polling WI. WaPO never even polled WI before 2020.

      So Trump’s one point closer to Biden than he was to Hilary in 2016, and Trump won WI in 2016

      Overall, the newest Marquette WI poll is a good poll for Trump.

      No wonder Trump keeps going back to WI for rallies.

    347. Smack says:

      All Early Voting – Florida
      ———

      Oct 28th / 4:30pm

      DEM: 2,953,850 40.59%

      GOP: 2,749,281 37.78%

    348. Robbie says:

      India’s corona outbreak is now down more than 50% from its peak in mid September. There are plenty of differences between India and the US. Most importantly is latitude. The bulk of India is on the same latitude as Mexico and Latin America. The warm weather has almost certainly helped India overcome what could have been a disaster.

      It’s also important to note India is not bothering with testing asymptomatic people as we are. Not only that, but there’s no way India is capturing anything close to as many cases as the US is.

      Regardless, India told its people they could either risk getting sick of corona or go hungry hiding from corona. Whether India’s strategy was borne out of necessity or not, it was the proper one.

    349. RuRu says:

      The Miami Dade early vote numbers are so stunning as to almost seem to be an error vis-a-vis the other Florida counties. They aren’t – but just shocking.

      Knowledgeable and honest Dems (rare breed) must be apoplectic.

    350. Waingro says:

      However…

      Replying to
      @stevenmazie
      WOW: the Alito, Gorsuch & Thomas statement also indicates the PA petition could be re-considered AFTER the election and ballots could be thrown out THEN

    351. jaichind says:

      357. The Spring India lockdown was a huge mistake and destroyed the economy. If they done then what they are doing now they would have saved many thousands of lives in terms of shorter lifespans due to lost economic output

    352. Stonewall DW says:

      “WOW: the Alito, Gorsuch & Thomas statement also indicates the PA petition could be re-considered AFTER the election and ballots could be thrown out THEN”

      They are trying to trigger Civil War II

    353. Akula_KS says:

      #343
      I visit every 4 years. Isn’t that what the Democrats said last Time?

    354. jaichind says:

      Objectively the funniest ad ever or in a very very long time

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y5KNJrt_DTo

    355. Scooterboy says:

      I stated on here the other day that the Dems would have at least one more trick up their sleeve in an attempt to take Trump down. It doesn’t surprise me that there are rumors that something will drop this weekend. This is their last chance.

      Personally I don’t think it will work. I think the cake is already baked as far as how people are gonna vote.

    356. mnw says:

      331 Tina

      That’a a breathtaking crowd in AZ. I can see why it might be Trump’s biggest. If you consider Lansing (43000+), and now Bullhead (?, but A LOT), it would appear Trump’s crowds may be growing.

    357. Robbie says:

      I remember when Ann Wagner turned down a chance to run for Senate from Missouri in 2018. She wanted to move up the leadership ladder in the House. Now, it looks like she’s going to lose her House seat.

    358. Tina says:

      The Phoenix Goodyear rally is insane,

      Lots of Hispanics.

    359. Stonewall DW says:

      IPSOS had 4 and 5 point leads for Biden in AZ and FL, but just chickened out a bit, and released new polls dropping it to just Biden +2 in both. Yes, Biden +2 in FL, even though the data we have coming in shows Trump wins FL…maybe by a lot.

    360. Tina says:

      Tucker’s audience last night was 7.5 million viewers.

    361. Tina says:

      Matt Gaetz
      @mattgaetz

      US House candidate, FL-1
      · 31m
      Tomorrow Democrats will fall under a 200k “ballots cast” advantage in FL.

      DeSantis won a close one going into Election Day down 230k.

      Warning: RED WAVE incoming!

    362. Stonewall DW says:

      Gap in FL now 203,881

    363. PresidentPaul! says:

      When the President declared that the US would be the first country to send a man or woman to Mars, one person in the crowd yelled: “Make it Nance Pelosi!”

    364. RuRu says:

      Just FYI – those 10 R counties in the Redneck Riviera area of Fl stay open for early vote until 8 pm est. a little more triple coming.

    365. Ruru says:

      Little more Trickle! Damn spell check

    366. MrVito says:

      Broward has flipped to GOP advantage over 2016

    367. mnw says:

      367

      WHY does it “look like” Wagner (R-inc; MO-02) will lose?

      1) In 2016, she won by 20 points, in a Presidential election year with Trump on the ballot.

      2) The PVI of MO-02 is R+8.

      3) In 2018, a bad year for the GOP, and an off year election with no Trump to draw out voters, Wagner still won by 4 points & change, I think

      4) I can’t find any nonpartisan polling of MO-02 in the last month or two, altho I didn’t do an exhaustive search.

      What info do you have showing Wagner losing? Why would Wagner vastly underperform her 2016 showing?

    368. Stonewall DW says:

      Wait! spoke too fast about IPSOS…the numbers above were head-to-head. Their prior polls were Biden +4 in AZ, and Biden +5 in Florida…here are their new polls with all candidates included:

      ARIZONA

      Biden 47
      Trump 47

      FLORIDA

      Biden 48
      Trump 47

      This with Dems in an absolute panic over the FL numbers happening in real life.

      AZ and FL are both going to Trump.

    369. LewisS says:

      FL turnout already is 7,300,000.
      In 2016, it was about 9,400,000.

      There are approximately 430,000 early votes being cast per day, with around 320,000 on Sunday.

      This means we should be going into Election Day with about 8,900,000 votes cast before election day.

      What’s the expected turnout on Election Day? Maybe 2 million votes? Is turnout of 11 million a realistic number?

    370. LewisS says:

      11 million would be 78% turnout. Seems too high.

    371. MrVito says:

      78% or more has only happened twice since 1956 here.

      It was 75% in the last two open elections and 72% in Obama’s re-election.

    372. Tina says:

      The speakers were great.

      Excellent speakers.

      g Collision symbol Retweeted

      unseen1
      @unseen1_unseen
      ·
      10m
      Mike Lee speaking Spanish at Trump’s rally. Rand Paul calling all the Libertarians’ home to the Trump camp. Mike Lee calling home the Mormons home to Trump. McSally calling the moderates home to Trump. amazing three speakers.

    373. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      @RyanAFournier “If Biden was this corrupt as VP, Imagine how corrupt he would be as President…”

      It boogles the mind.

    374. NYCmike says:

      Does the Supreme Court give reasons for their decisions?

      Where do you find them?

    375. Stonewall DW says:

      Trafalgar

      MINNESOTA

      Biden 48
      Trump 46

    376. Stonewall DW says:

      typo there, actually 48/45

    377. John says:

      Interesting opening segment on Fox News….Tom Bevan of RCP basically called the ABC Wisconsin poll garbage….said he expects this is getting closer and may not be called next Tuesday….Zogby was quoted at the saying the battleground states are alot closer than what people think…and a Georgia poll had people thinking Trump will win that state 51-40%.

    378. PresidentPaul! says:

      bc we’re testing more so daily cases might or might not be as important for covid, here is the daily hospitalizations chart.

      Not quite as bad

      https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-currently-hospitalized

    379. Tina says:

      Wow, in Florida, it’s 196,000 per Larry s?

    380. John says:

      391 follow up.
      Bevan also said that the Marquette poll (Wisconsin) was the gold standard (+5) but said they had Hillary +6 just before the election and questioned if they modified their methodology regarding the shy Trump voter this time around.
      Hmmm……

    381. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      @RossDellenger “Exclusive: Cardiologists are finding so few heart issues in athletes they are no longer recommending screenings for most COVID positives.”

      One of the major concerns about playing college football has been removed.

    382. Big E says:

      Unless their October surprise is something socially taboo it will have zero impact. When the news is 92% negative what can you uncover that would have any impact. If tbey try to indict Trump Jr that will reuslt in independents flocking to Trump.

    383. PresidentPaul! says:

      If Barrett had been on the court a few weeks earlier, we could have stopped the steal in PA that is going (the first case was 4-4)

    384. MrVito says:

      “ Wow, in Florida, it’s 196,000 per Larry s?”

      Maybe if he has the Dada and Sarasota numbers.

    385. Dylan says:

      Look—if the PA fraud issues are legit—the GOP needs to figure out how to tee up A “ripe” case for SCOTUS to consider Seems like it was denied on procedural grounds NOT on the merits

    386. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      Best commentary of the day, by someone who answered the question of “how would Jesus vote” in the LDS-owned Deseret News:

      “And while it’s stimulating to see Christians wrestle with their beliefs as they apply doctrines to their electoral decisions, the moment also deserves a measure of caution.

      Pushing those arguments to their conclusion — implying to a diverse population that a “real” Christian would vote for (insert name here) — assumes the progenitor of Christianity has mandated a choice.

      He hasn’t. No one knows how Jesus would vote.”

    387. PresidentPaul! says:

      So if Trump wins Ohio\Florda\Arizona and Florida.

      Then either Wi or Mn (both 10) get him to 269 tie
      As well as PA or Mi would put him over.

      If he gets 269 he still wins bc he controls more legislatures?

    388. MrVito says:

      Josh Hawley
      @HawleyMO
      This level of idiocy confirms the widespread impression that Jack’s primary food source is weed
      Quote Tweet

      Philip Melanchthon Wegmann
      @PhilipWegmann
      · 8h
      Jack says the New York Post can log back onto its account, delete their original offending tweet, and then “tweet the exact same material from the exact same article.”

    389. mnw says:

      Jesus was an Israelite Jew. I have no idea if He would even vote, let alone for whom. Instinct suggests to that He would be sensitive to the fate of Israel.

      Church historians often call the early Christian church, i.e. the first 100 years of Christianity, “the Jewish church.”

    390. PresidentPaul! says:

      All 50 state-level U.S. House delegations get a single vote to break an Electoral College tie. The Republicans control 26 delegations, the Democrats hold 23, and one state is split (Pennsylvania).

      so going to happen

    391. Bitterlaw says:

      I don’t believe that there will be any more lockdowns. After the election, the Governors and Mayors will need to open businesses up so tax revenues increase.

    392. Bitterlaw says:

      How would Jesus vote? Any way he wants.

    393. Ruru says:

      406 – agree, but it is the new congress that votes in January. So……

    394. PresidentPaul! says:

      WASHINGTON (AP) — The Supreme Court will allow absentee ballots in North Carolina to be received and counted up to 9 days after Election Day, in a win for Democrats.

    395. Bitterlaw says:

      I think the Justices prefer to not vote on PA hoping that it will not be necessary. If Biden or Trump wins PA by more votes than the number of challenged ballots, they will be happy to not be involved.

    396. PresidentPaul! says:

      Pennsylvania Agrees to Segregate Ballots That Arrive After Election Day While Republicans Fight State Supreme Court Ruling

      https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/10/pennsylvania-agrees-segregate-ballots-arrive-election-day-republicans-fight-state-supreme-court-ruling/?utm_source=Twitter&utm_campaign=websitesharingbuttons

      I’m sure the rural counties will comply!

    397. PresidentPaul! says:

      The cities will pool all the total GOP ballots collected and put them in the late collection area.

    398. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      405. “Instinct suggests to that He would be sensitive to the fate of Israel.”

      Am not so sure, Israel at the time seems to have not been very sensitive to his fate.

    399. Chicon says:

      Could be, Bitter. But if those votes turn out to be important, they’ll have wished they ruled ahead of time. Which is what Alito pointed out.

    400. Tom says:

      No one that calls themselves a Christian (or for that matter a person of faith in any religion) can vote for Democrat. It is de rigueur in the liberal wing of the Democratic party to be an atheist. And not just an atheist who says “I choose not to believe and expect you to respect that”. No, it is a militant atheism that says “not only do I not believe, but you are a superstitious idiot if you do, and it is my goal to expunge the expression of any religious expressions from the public space and to prevent you from indoctrinating your children with your superstitions.”

    401. MrVito says:

      I think it is unlikely that Jesus would vote at all.

    402. jason says:

      The nanny state strikes again.

      Joe Biden derides game dev ‘creeps’ who ‘teach you how to kill’

    403. Robbie says:

      Pandemic Overlord Fauci appeared on Shep Smith’s awful CNBC news show. Shep praised Australia for the 111 day shutdown of Melbourne and wondered why we just don’t do that here. Fauci praised Australia’s shutdown as well, but wasn’t sure one that length could work in the US. Ya think!

    404. PresidentPaul! says:

      Joe Rogan preview Glenn Greenwald interview done today!

      https://twitter.com/DerekJShaffer/status/1321518032645140480?s=20

      Rogan on fire

    405. MrVito says:

      TargetSmart has the early vote partisan gap tied in NV-3.

    406. Bitterlaw says:

      Some clues about what would impact Jesus as a voter.

      Trained as carpenter – Republicans favor policies that support small businesses.

      Opposed money changers in the Temple – the original Bernie Bro?

    407. Tina says:

      2) Just released: the final Rep-Dem advantage has increased to 130,454. This short-term burst in Republican registrations puts Trump in a better position in AZ than just a few months ago, gaining back about 40k. This is significant!

      https://azsos.gov/sites/default/files/State_Voter_Registration_2020_General.pdf

    408. Tina says:

      PollWatch
      @PollWatch2020
      ·
      5m
      1) Arizona Voter Registration Update

      In 2016 Republicans had a 148,291 voter registration edge over Democrats. Trump won Arizona by 3.5%.

      Earlier in 2020, the Rep-Dem advantage dropped to under 90,000. An obvious concern. But Republicans have rebounded well.

    409. Hugh says:

      424. But all that matters are the msm polls. Didn’t u get the memo?

    410. PresidentPaul! says:

      https://twitter.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1321608055549775872?s=20

      Tucker Carlson
      @TuckerCarlson
      ·
      7m
      Damning Hunter Biden documents suddenly vanish

    411. Tina says:

      Got that memo, but I have been looking at party registrations, Trumps job approval,among Republicans mid 90s); and primary votes won by an incumbent.

      Plus the are you better than you were 4 years ago ?

    412. RuRu says:

      Actually the new house picks the prez based on one vote per state delegation.

      The new senate picks the VP – one vote for each senator.

      If the House is tied say 25 -25, the new VP Elected by the senate becomes Prez.

      But, Pence is still VP when these votes occur In early January – so, it is actually possible (not likely 🙂 ), that pence votes for himself to break a 50/50 tie in the new senate and is elected VP – – and yes, he would become Prez.

      Let that sink in.

    413. MrVito says:

      A Sarasota vote drop came in.

      201807 currently on Joeisdone site.

    414. Smack says:

      Florida

      Oct 28th / 7:32pm

      DEM: 2,972,951 40.54%

      GOP: 2,771,144 37.79%

    415. Annie says:

      426. Why didn’t anyone make copies before shipping the documents??

    416. Tina says:

      I am sure there are back ups.

      Or he can get them from the whistleblower again.

    417. PresidentPaul! says:


      Actually the new house picks the prez based on one vote per state delegation.”

      What prevents Pelosi from interpreting the 26-23 vote for Trump as meaning they want Biden?

    418. PresidentPaul! says:

      Pence could make Trump VP and then resign
      and then Trump could pick Pence

    419. PresidentPaul! says:

      Then Trump would be the 45th and 47th presidents vs Pence who was the 46th

    420. PresidentPaul! says:

      And in 2024 Pence could run for the 48th, but he wouldn’t be eligible for a 2nd term

    421. Annie says:

      433. What if a miracle happens, the GOP takes the House majority, and Nancy loses the gavel?

    422. PresidentPaul! says:

      Darius Dale
      @HedgeyeDDale

      ·
      6m
      Just landed in FL after being in AZ, WA and NY the past 3wks. It’s a totally different world b/tw Red and Blue states RE: #CCP19. America has a long and storied history of half the country depriving individuals of their freedom and liberty. The state names just change over

    423. Annie says:

      Maybe the GOP will the House majority in 2021…

    424. PresidentPaul! says:

      If this thing is close, this is going to the court.

      Pelosi could play games to avoid that making the void like 10 min before searing in jan 20th so there is no time.

    425. Annie says:

      439. …will have the House majority in 2021…

    426. Hugh says:

      Broward the Florida fat lady just sang. The EV gap percentage in broward just swing in favor of trump. At least one more blue county will drop tomorrow. Maybe more.

    427. Annie says:

      440. No doubt that’s why the Democrats are so upset with ACB on the Supreme Court. They might have been hoping that Roberts would side with the liberal justices and vote to oust Trump, if the election becomes a court case.

    428. Hugh says:

      Another rep blowout day in Florida.. we will see the same tomorrow in NC and AZ. Theank god for joe he has his polls!!

    429. mnw says:

      I said that instinct suggested He might be sensitive to the fate of Israel. “Israel” in His lifetime was not synonymous with the Roman-occupied. puppet state GOVERNMENT.

      My best guess would be that He would not vote all, that He would consider secular issues to be trivial & a mere distraction.

    430. NYCmike says:

      “My best guess would be that He would not vote all, that He would consider secular issues to be trivial & a mere distraction.”

      -Didn’t Jesus say “”Render unto Caesar the things that are Caesar’s, and unto God the things that are God’s””?

    431. BayernFan says:

      To fill a vacancy in the office of Vice President, a VP nominee must be confirmed by a majority vote of each house of Congress.

    432. Bitterlaw says:

      Jesus would probably just say, “Seriously? I gave you all the answers on how to live good lives and this is what you came up with? I’m out.”

    433. jason says:

      Ssq said God was a Republican.

      Why would Jesus be different?

    434. mnw says:

      446 NYC

      I don’t see “Render under…” as being inconsistent with what I posted. He answered a trick question in a noncommittal way which would allow Him to continue His ministry.

      448 BL

      I agree.

      Whenever someone asks, “What would Jesus do?” It’s been my experience that it’s some hate-filled liberal who wants to beat me over the head, similar to wanting “an honest conversation about race.”

    435. Bitterlaw says:

      mnw – I always thought it was strange when I saw signs that said God hates F*gs. They clearly never read the gospels.

    436. eriepa says:

      BREAKING: The Supreme Court will allow absentee ballots in North Carolina to be received and counted up to 9 days after Election Day, in a win for Democrats – AP

    437. eriepa says:

      oops -already done my bad

    438. Bitterlaw says:

      I would love to have an honest conversation about race.

      Let’s start-

      Blacks suffered slavery and terrible discrimination.

      Things are better than they were but are not perfect.

      Nobody alive today can apologize to anybody who suffered and died in the past. Nor should they.

    439. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      Baris has Rump down in PA and now MI? Tralfayger has Rump down in WI and MN?

      Not even the Republican pollsters can find a lead for Rump anywhere! Sad.

    440. hugh says:

      Of the 17 blue counties right now in FL, 9 now favor trump in the EV % gap between 2016 and 2020. Tomorrow at least one more will go to trump and perhaps as many as three. Chump chump

    441. Chicon says:

      Good start, Bitter.

    442. NYCmike says:

      In regard to North Carolina, over 2.3 million people voted for Trump in 2016, more than had voted for Obama in 2008. What would be the reason why any of them switched their vote? He DIDN’T act Trumpian enough??

      I will stick with my original idea, that was to stick with Wes in getting a Trump, Tillis, (unfortunately) Democrat Governor slate elected next week.

    443. jason says:

      Things are better than they were but are not perfect.”

      Zzzzz…

      Nothing is ever perfect.

    444. NYCmike says:

      mnw,

      I do see it as consistent with what you wrote. He would consider it trivial and a mere distraction from (HIS) God’s work.

    445. Bitterlaw says:

      The A-holes are close to perfect.

    446. jason says:

      Slavery ended 155 years ago.

      How long are people who are alive today still going to be victims?

    447. NYCmike says:

      ” more than had voted for Obama in 2008.”

      -Actually, should have just stuck with 2016 across the board, as the numbers increased each year for the Dems from 2008-2012-2016. I just don’t see them catching up if the Republicans GOTV.

    448. Bitterlaw says:

      https://www.historyonthenet.com/living-tuskegee-airmen

      I wish I could meet and thank these brave men. They were truly heroes despite being treated like dirt when they returned home. The saddest story one of them told is that when they came home, they could not exit the ship where white troops disembarked to a band and a heroic welcome. They had to go down the “colored” gang black to no greeting.

    449. Bitterlaw says:

      How does gang plank autocorrect to gang black?

    450. Scooterboy says:

      I read somewhere that since 1968, every time Florida has moved further right, Pennsylvania & Michigan have moved with it.

    451. Stonewall DW says:

      FINAL POLL – FRANKLIN AND MARSHALL

      PA

      2016

      Hillary 49 (Hillary +11)
      Trump 38
      Johnson 4
      Stein 2

      2020

      Biden 50 (Biden +6)
      Trump 44

    452. Jeff G. says:

      In PA and NC, it’s all about Trump winning outside the MOF.

    453. jaichind says:

      If RCP for FL has it as dead even then it makes no sense that RCP nationally is Biden +7.5. In 2000 to 2016 FL has been, relative to national vote share, R+0.5, R+2.5, R+4.5, R+3.0, and R+3.3. So if FL is dead even that would justify Biden ahead nationally by at most 4-5 and more like 3-4. And based on early voting there is every reason to believe Trump is ahead by a couple of percentage points.

    454. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      In an article entitled “The moment Hillary Clinton was forced to give up her dream”, by Jonathan Allen and Amie Parnes, the significance of Trump’s 2016 win in Florida was explained:

      “No, Schale explained, Trump’s numbers weren’t just big, they were unreal. In rural Polk County, smack-dab in the center of the state, Hillary would collect 3,000 more votes than Obama did in 2012 — but Trump would add more than 25,000 votes to Mitt Romney’s total. In Pasco County, a swath of suburbs north of Tampa-St. Petersburg, Trump outran Romney by 30,000 votes.
      Pasco was one of the counties Schale was paying special attention to because the Tampa area tended to attract retirees from the Rust Belt — folks whose political leanings reflected those of hometowns in the industrial Midwest. In particular, Schale could tell, heavily white areas were coming in hard for Trump.”

    455. Official Trump is Done Countdown says:

      5 days…

    456. Smack says:

      SanDiegoCitizen,

      Thanks for the post. GOP still have some work to do in Pasco and Polk county but I think 2020 Trump will match 2016 Trump in All Early Votes in both those counties before Election Day which would signal Trump being difficult to beat in Rust Belt once again.

    457. TrumpIsPeteWilson says:

      RCP has it dead even because they ignore good pulls and put in pure sh*t like Trafalgar. With proper weighing, Biden is heavily favored in Florida. Not least of which will be the fact that Biden will get like 90%+ of Dems and enough crossover support from the elderly vote.

      Biden winning white voters over 65 will win him Florida but not be the story of the election. That will be Dems winning white college-educated voters for the first time ever.

    458. NYCmike says:

      Riots in Philly – will Biden get the same numbers out of Philly that Hillary got in 2016?

    459. Phil says:

      Biden isn’t winning Florida.

    460. PresidentPaul! says:

      Bloomberg consensus says 4% GDP for q4.

      Estimates of not getting a stimulus bill before the election means minus 5% GDP off that so that potentially we can go back into recession.

      Double dip (Nancy knows this)

    461. Justin says:

      Wait, all these new Republicans registered and are waiting in long lines to NOT vote Republican, 473?

    462. mnw says:

      473 TIPW

      For newcomers, we’ve always called TIPW “the
      Kindergarden (sic) Kid,” because he’s an illiterate idiot who can’t spell “cat” if you spotted him a “c” & a “t.”

      This fool used to post here all the time, but hasn’t lately. I suspect he posts under one of the familiar troll names we see now.

    463. MrVito says:

      Polk isn’t quite so rural anymore, with Lakeland/Winter Haven…. I mean, we’re talking like three quarters of a million people.

    464. Ridin' with Biden says:

      We arrived safely back home in Gilbert, Arizona, this afternoon. Home sweet Home!

      What a lovely trip across the Sun Belt.

      I was hoping for some new fanciful musings from Mr. Guiliani. It does appear that Mr. Tucker Carlson has been handed the lead role and goodness he is not wasting time. Mr. Guiliani has been benched?

      The teasing of these damning documents was superb. Unfortunately, his claim of those documents being “stolen” was quite disappointing. He should have said that he was mugged by Mr. Hunter Biden or that his dog ate the documents. That would have been more entertaining.

      That silly Mr. Carlson. I will give him a second shot though. He tried.

    465. mnw says:

      481 RwB

      Do you have ANY clue whatsoever how offensive your “affected effeminate homosexual” act must be to REAL gay posters here?

      You make any skin crawl.

      “Splendid!” (limp wrist)

    466. Ridin' with Biden says:

      Rumor is that after Mr. Hunter Biden stole the documents, he buried it in the secret hatch.

      Which hatch you may ask, that same hatch that contains Ms Obama’s “whitey” tape, Mr. Obama’s Kenyan birth certificate, Ms Clinton’s emails, even Mr. Biden’s confession to murdering Tupac!

      So silly that Mr. Tucker.

    467. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      RWB, are you single and cute 🙂

      Rudy is too busy storming off Fox News shows when he gets asked “tough” questions by former MTV VJs.

    468. Ridin' with Biden says:

      “RWB, are you single and cute ?”

      ***

      Oh my, *blush* . I am an old geyser of 66 years. The lovely missus puts up with me.

      Mr. Guiliani is such a silly boy. Is he still sad that he didn’t get a blowie from the 15yr old young lady? That poor sap.

    469. mnw says:

      You’r ProudObamacon. No doubt whatever. I don’t blame you for changing your embarrassing screen name.

      ProudObamacon once admitted he’d never had a full-time job… or a girlfriend, either.

    470. Michelle Obama vs the DNC buffet table says:

      What the hell? I left for a few hours and came back to a gay dating site

    471. TrumpIsPeteWilson says:

      @mnw – Oh no! A geriatric racist fake lawyer insulted me with a lame insult.

      The biggest reason Trump will lose is that people like you are dying off at a fast clip.

      Just imagine, you and Tina will soon be able to lock eyes lovingly across from each other as the flames of hell lick you in eternal agony.

    472. mnw says:

      485 RwB

      Oh SURE you are! And a Chippendale lead dancer, too.

      I believe every word you say. /s

      I cringe for you.

    473. Ridin' with Biden says:

      It does appear that I have managed to trigger Mr. MNW. Golly.

    474. mnw says:

      488 Kindergarden (sic) Kid

      Why is the insult lame? How many other troll names have you posted under here? Truthfully, for once… Kindergarden (sic)?

    475. michael corleone says:

      Poor Ralston. Sweating again. GOP wins the day by 1400.

    476. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      487 – that might bring Lindsey Graham here. He will need options once his interns dry up after his loss.

    477. NYCmike says:

      Lindsey Granite will win.

      Unless you care to state a wager? You might get some takers.

    478. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      Have you been to Lindseygraham.com to donate today? Go to Lindseygraham.com – the left is out to get me! That’s Lindseygraham.com

    479. Dylan says:

      gator—wtf If you’re right you’re right—-why all the mean spirited gloating? If you are wrong—no one here will care about you and certainly will be too happy to gloat over YOUR comeuppance Such a silly meaningless pursuit your are engaging in Like the opposite of Ron Burgandy in 2012

    480. NYCmike says:

      Reminds me of several friends who can’t handle this election season……I went thru 8 years of Obama, never turned down a good argument…..the Biden voters can’t handle the fact that Trump may in fact win another 4 years, so they cover up with sarcasm and rudeness.

      Pour it on, Republicans, and may the most sentient being win the election!

    481. lisab says:

      so they cover up with sarcasm and rudeness.
      —————————-

      nah … that is just how boys act before they develop social skills

      and get a girlfriend

    482. eriepa says:

      I was going to donate to Lindsey Graham – but I gave all my money to that Baris guy on here-Im pretty sure you know him Ridin with I mean Gatorbill

    483. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      I would just ignore the trolls and scroll down beyond them. They are reading off talking points. I would not take anything they say seriously.

    484. Akula_KS says:

      Clones of Cory the Canadian.

    485. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      500 – thanks Sam Diego. I appreciate the compliment that I can read! You’ve consistently been one of my favorite posters on here.

    486. eriepa says:

      The reading part is easy -its the thinking part thats giving you trouble

    487. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      Holy cheese curds! A 17 point lead in Wisconsin. What’s that you say? They oversampled Democrats by 3 points? Well, shoot, guess it’s just a 14 point lead.

      Oh what a glorious evening!

    488. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      Gator, everyone has to make a living. This is all part of the political give and take.

    489. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      Keep compensating, eerie grandpa

    490. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      We will all make better livings when Biden is elected. We will finally get this disease under control, provide healthcare to all Americans, and have jobs with livable wages for all.

      San Diego is such a beautiful place. I miss the smell of the ocean.

    491. eriepa says:

      Sure, ok real zinger! Ranks right up there with Holy Cheese Curds!

    492. jason says:

      Jack Nicklaus:

      “You might not like the way our President says or tweets some things—and trust me, I have told him that!—but I have learned to look past that and focus on what he’s tried to accomplish. This is not a personality contest; it’s about patriotism, policies and the people they impact. His love for America and its citizens, and putting his country first, has come through loud and clear. How he has said it has not been important to me. What has been important are his actions. Now, you have the opportunity to take action.

      He concludes:

      I know we are only a few days from Nov. 3 and Election Day, but I am certain many of you have not yet made up your minds.

      But if we want to continue to have the opportunity to pursue the American Dream, and not evolve into a socialist America and have the government run your life, then I strongly recommend you consider Donald J. Trump for another 4 years. I certainly have and have already cast my vote for him!”

    493. eriepa says:

      What disease Dementia, since it will have such a high profile?

    494. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      Stay positive you all. Just think how nice it is going to be to not have to cringe every morning when you wake up and turn on the tv and see the latest thing that the president has said.

      A return to decency is long (nearly four years) overdue.

    495. eriepa says:

      Yea it will be great to watch Biden drool and watch Jill swipe the flies on his forehead.

    496. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      While I disagree with your assertion, even that would be a marked improvement.

    497. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      Erie why aren’t you out knocking doors and encouraging people to vote? Have you given up on your state?

    498. michael corleone says:

      Oh Poor Ralston. Ds lose another 2900 in Clark.

    499. eriepa says:

      You mean over Joe’s current condition?

    500. eriepa says:

      I don’t want to knock on doors -why dont you?

    501. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      507. “We will finally get this disease under control,”

      Biden is advocating for coronavirus policies that are very similar to what Europe is doing now. Europe is getting badly hit by a second wave. The virus seems to be nonpartisan in its ability to evade whatever policies humans adopt to stop it.

    502. Jeff Toobin says:

      I’m bored. Won’t anyone fap with me?

      fap fap fap

    503. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      I would love to be able to make a firm prediction of who will win the presidency next week. But at this point it is still a coin toss. All polling is suspect, as there is a question if there really is an accurate method to poll a representative sample of those who are actually going to vote. The fact that the election is taking place during a pandemic makes it even more difficult to predict. We are heading into unchartered waters.

      If the Democrats had nominated a younger moderate, such as Bullock, then believe they would be favored to win. But choosing a candidate who is clearly in his senescence? Then add Hunter Biden’s follies to the mix. The Democrats may have fumbled away this election.

    504. John says:

      It seems that the D’s that follow Jon Ralston and early voting in Nevada are absolutely freaking out…a dwindling day by day 12,000 lead heading into the last few days of early voting….knowing that in 2012 the D’s had a 80,000 early vote lead heading into ED.
      Wow.

    505. John says:

      521.
      Correct, 2016.

    506. Sheeple,Jr. says:

      Mini-Boom

      A new Survey USA Panel(Gordan Allen claims it is not a poll) shows GOP Senate candidate Jason Lewis within 2 in Minnesota and on the rise.
      Also, on top of Trafalgar showing the President -3 in MN, Survey USA comes in at -5.
      This is why Trump will campaign in the Golpher State tomorrow.

      1- So according to the polls, Trump is -5 in MN, but -17 in WI. Polling is a joke this cycle.
      2- Does anyone know the health status of Jason Lewis.

    507. JeffP says:

      Looking at the last NV vote totals I can see why the Dems are very very concerned. It looks like they are well below their targets. I would be very encouraged by this if I knew they didn’t have so much corruption. Winning by MOF will be hard…but maybe I am wrong. One thing…if Trump wins Washoe by several thousand it will look VERY suspect if he losses the state. GOP lawyers need to be on the ground now.

    508. Sheeple,Jr. says:

      #525- Jeff
      NV is winnable if the Independents, especially in the “cow” counties, go bigly toward Trump.

    509. Gordon Allen says:

      Sheeple: when did I write anything about Survey USA? I must have a Doppelganger.

    510. Sheeple,Jr. says:

      #527- Gordon
      Me bad!

    511. JeffP says:

      https://www.miamidadedems.org/who_is_winning_the_election_in_florida

      Think they are concerned? LOL love the map…take look trolls.

      I think the mail in ballots strategy could mean a red wave and cost the House.

    512. JeffP says:

      I’m tired…I meant graph not map on the Dem blog. FL could end up being a huge win for Trump.

    513. JeffP says:

      526…thanks…yes I am going to keep an eye on that for sure. Last I saw the Wall was about 25K short.

    514. Todd McCain says:

      Again, the problem w Nevada is that the IPEV ends tomorrow and the DEMS are going to have three whole days before the election to get whatever “firewalls” they need to win. The good news for Trump is that it is looking like a similar margin loss as 2016 (2-3 points); which obviously was a national Trump win.

    515. hugh says:

      We are making up ground in NC. Picked up another 15,406.

      Here are the last three days results and the total

      13,706 14,685 15,406 43,797

      These are real votes. Not fake polls. Chump Chump

    516. hugh says:

      White turnout in NC. 66.96 and black turnout at 19.78. I will let Wes or someone more familiar with HC tell us what it all means, but I think it is good.

    517. Wes says:

      Dems are down to a lead of 285,199 votes in NC. With three days only left of early voting, Republicans seem to be in a good position for the upcoming election.

    518. Tina says:

      They are below in Clark county.

      Not good.

    519. Tina says:

      Wes, if and big if, it stays as is

      The Ds are below what they got in 2016 and blacks are a pinch below, right?

    520. Todd McCain says:

      DEMS had 310K in NC for 2016 I believe. If they keep racking up 15K a day net; WOW.

    521. Tina says:

      Thanks, Todd. Thought it was that number.

    522. jaichind says:

      Initial jobless claims 751K vs expected 770K. GDP at 33.1% QoQ

    523. Wes says:

      Correct, Tina.

    524. Tina says:

      BOOOOOM

      33.1% GDP,Growth 3rd quarter.

      BEAT EXPECTATIONS.

    525. hugh says:

      recap on florida as of their 6:02 vote dump. There remain 17 blue counties. As of this morning 9 of them favor biden and 8 favor trump in terms of the % of EV gap compared to 2016. Yesterday Trump gained Broward and St Lucia. If things go well again we should pick up Osceola early today, and by end of day or tomorrow Palm Beach and Polk. If we get Palm Beach we have the three ones in trumps column. After that we have in order from first to go to last.

      Hillsbourough should switch Friday or Saturday

      Leon and Pinellas on Saturday

      The next four may be out of reach, though they are dropping quickly all have a gap % that ranges from 6.24 to 7.41
      Duval
      Orange
      Seminole
      Aluchua

      The total gap % for all of Florida is 1.28%. The expectation is that for biden to win he needed to be at 8%. I think that is high, but if will be below 1% perhaps even end of day Saturday. The dems will gain on sunday, as their counties are more open for EV and we still have the last souls to the polls day. They did the best they have done last Sunday and will do even better this Sunday. They are also picking up about between 5 and 9K net vbm votes per day which will help them make up some ground. All in all, it appears Florida will for the first time since 2008 deliver a comfortable win.

    526. Tina says:

      In addition to the drop in weekly claims, the continuing claims plunged 709,000 to 776,000.

      This is the important stat to watch.

    527. hugh says:

      Wes does NC have in person EV this Sunday?

    528. Tina says:

      To 7.76 million*

    529. DW says:

      But wait, I thought with huge mail in ballots Democrats were supposed to be waaaaay ahead everywhere in the early vote and we were supposed to console ourselves it was because of covid?

    530. dblaikie says:

      GDP third quarter +32.5%. Boom!

    531. dblaikie says:

      Actually 33.1!

    532. Bitterlaw says:

      I appreciate the optimism and insight. I just hope that we are not just seeing what we want to see.

    533. Tina says:

      Wow, the consumer spending component of gdp.

      Up 40.1%.

      There’s a lot of consuming going on out there.

    534. JeffP says:

      547 DW…this whole Covid play is going to backfire on the Dems. Add college vote impact and Dem lockdown Govs…people are really pissed about it too…

    535. Wes says:

      No, Hugh. Halloween is the last day of NC early voting.

    536. Sheeple,Jr. says:

      So does Sue Collins(R-ME) have a chance?

      Maine
      OCT 23-27, 2020
      A
      SurveyUSA
      1,007 LV Gideon
      51%
      49%
      Collins Gideon +2
      U.S. Senate Maine
      OCT 23-27, 2020
      A
      SurveyUSA
      1,007 LV Gideon
      46%
      More Gideon +1

    537. Sean says:

      Bitter – I agree.

      I think the numbers from Florida are encouraging if the stat about 250K more R Supervoters (4/4) are remaining than Democrats, and we’re already within 200K. Not sure what it means in places like Nevada – how many R’s are cannibalizing their in person vote?

    538. SoHope says:

      Shapiro on the funniest ad yet
      https://youtu.be/bRpApx5lnd4

    539. Wes says:

      That’s always a possibility, Bitter. That’s why I make comparisons between this year and previous elections. Yes, I know early voting is a bigger phenomenon this year than even in 2016, but it’s not so outsized a comparison is inherently unreliable.

      That’s why I’m confident in my predictions. If the numbers actually indicated Dems were getting what they need as in 2008, I’d definitely tell you.

      Thus, I’m confident in my Trump-Tillis-Cooper prediction for NC.

    540. MichiganGuy says:

      * BOOM *
      .
      BREAKING: U.S. economy grows at fastest pace EVER in third quarter! GDP surges by 33.1% ?? President ?@realDonaldTrump? is the ONLY person that can bring the economy back!
      .
      https://t.co/vVS4jVg4k9

    541. Country Dick Montana says:

      “I just hope that we are not just seeing what we want to see.”

      All of us see what we want to see. On November 4,5,6…or whenever, we deal with the results. I have a Plan a and a Plan B. Plan A assumes a Trump win and I continue to work, trying to keep then lights on and houses heated even for those who vote against my interests.

      Plan B assumes a Biden win. I park the truck and retire.

    542. JeffP says:

      The “silent” voter is breaking for Biden not Trump.

      So says Mooch Scaramoochi LOLOLOL

    543. Wes says:

      Interesting you say that, CDM. My stepfather had to go on leave from work once Covid hit because he was recovering from Stage Three leukemia and consequently had a compromised immune system.

      He’s nearly to the point of being able to work again but has told me he will retire rather than return to work if Biden wins.

    544. Chicon says:

      Bitter, are you seeing what you want to see?

    545. Big Joe says:

      “DEMS had 310K in NC for 2016 I believe.”

      How much of the vote was early-vote in 2016? It looks like 3.8M votes have already been cast this year vs 4.8M that were cast in total in 2016.

      Making up 300,000 votes with 70% of the vote outstanding would be different than making up 300,000 votes with only 30% outstanding.

      VBM is making a 2020-2016 comparison tough.

      BJ

    546. Stonewall DW says:

      Despite what is happening in real life in FLORIDA, Marist will go down with the polling ship and is out with Biden 51 / Trump 47.

      No one apparently told them that the GOP new registrations in FL dropped the party ID gap down to a low of 134k, from more than twice that in 2016?

      No one told Marist how the early vote in FL is going?

    547. Marv says:

      Morning folks…,,,

      RAS says Trump JA unchanged. Good news again.

    548. Country Dick Montana says:

      Wes, there are a lot of us old timers that work because we enjoy the job and feel we contribute as a whole. The one thing that we don’t have is a whole lot of fight left in us.

      I will not fight anymore if Biden wins and the DEMS get power. it will be up to my kids and grandchildren

    549. Wes says:

      We also have about a million more voters in NC than in 2016, CDM. Proportionally the numbers are about the same this year as then.

      We’re on track to have about 4.3 million votes cast in early voting with about 3 million eligible voters outstanding for Election Day.

      That still leaves a large pool of voters out for the final day of the campaign.

    550. Sheeple,Jr. says:

      Gallup which polls only Adults comes in at 46/52 for Trump’s job performance.

      OCT 26-27, 2020
      B
      Gallup
      Approve
      46%
      52%
      Disapprove Disapprove +6

    551. Tina says:

      Trump re tweeted the black sliced bread man.

      2.6 million views already since yesterday.

    552. Gordon Allen says:

      Msm/ College polls should have been ignored months ago. Marist will be off 7-8 points,which is probably par for the course overall.

    553. Wes says:

      That’s the thing the people talking about increased early voting don’t realize:

      The overall voter pool has increased, so there will still be plenty of voters to turn out on Election Day.

    554. Wes says:

      Err, I meant to respond to Big Joe, not CDM.

    555. Waingro says:

      IBD/Tipp tracker has it Biden +5 for both HTH and 4 way today.

    556. Jeff G. says:

      In-person EV in NC closes at 3 p.m. Saturday.

    557. Wes says:

      One interesting crosstab on the early voting returns is that 7.35% of Tarheels are listed as “undesignated” for gender.

      I didn’t know so many Tarheels were unaware of their own sex.

    558. Chicon says:

      Big Joe, I’ve made that point a couple times. If so many vote early and the election day vote is halved, the lead you can overcome on election day is also halved (assuming the same total vote). Of course, if one party told all their voters to vote early and the other to their voters to vote on election day, the numbers will shift back again. Because of this I believe Trump is in good shape in FL. I’m less confident in NC, but I have faith in Wes.

      There are a lot of variables in figuring out the early vote. Doing so is fraught with peril, especially in states that do not register by party.

    559. Jeff G. says:

      In 2008, the Black share of the vote in NC was a little over 23%.

    560. Sheeple,Jr. says:

      #573- Waingro
      Yes, but take a look at the regional breakdown of the poll; Trump behind by 30% in the Northeast makes for all of the 5% gap.

      Northeast 32.5% 61.1% 2.3% – – 0.3%
      Midwest 49.7% 45.4% 1.7% 1.2% 0.9% 0.3%
      South 49.4% 46.1% 1.5% 1.1% 0.4% 0.3%
      West 43.6% 53.4% 0.7% 0.4% – 0.0%

    561. Stonewall DW says:

      Some outfit called Citizen data is out with a collection of state polls, very leftist obviously, but what caught my eye was this…

      Florida – Biden +5
      Georgia – Biden +5
      Pennsylvania – Biden +5
      Ohio – Trump +1
      Texas – Biden +10

      wait…Texas, Biden +10, PA Biden +5?

      They actually released this stuff with a straight face?

    562. OHIO Joe says:

      I saw that outfit to Stonewall. I thought to myself that this was totally nuts!

    563. Wes says:

      We can also look at it this way:

      There are approximately 2.5 million registered Dems in NC, over half of whom have voted.

      There are approximately 2.2 million registered Republicans in NC, only about half of whom have voted.

      By Election Day, Republicans will have a higher percentage of their voters outstanding to turn out than will Dems.

    564. Smack says:

      All Early Voting – Florida
      ———-

      Oct 28th / 7:18am

      DEM: 3,002,567 40.48%

      GOP: 2,799,949 37.75%

      Here we go…..

    565. Smack says:

      Wrong title..

      This one should work.

      Oct 29th / 8:20am

      DEM: 3,002,567 40.48%

      GOP: 2,799,949 37.75%

    566. jaichind says:

      579

      https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-29/democrats-dream-of-flipping-texas-with-early-vote-exploding

      Bloomberg also pushing the line that TX could flip. Part of it to justify Bloomberg himself pushing in money into TX

    567. Stonewall DW says:

      zerohedge
      @zerohedge
      ·
      4h
      Scottish Hate Crime Bill Would Criminalize Offensive Dinner Table Conversations

      This is the vision Harris/Biden has for America.

    568. jaichind says:

      581. I think that argument can be flipped around to say there is greater Dem enthusiasm.

      Key metric is how many high propensity voters are left that have not voted VBM or voted early are left.

    569. Phil says:

      If I hear one more time that Texas could flip…..

      These pollsters are absolutely determined to go off a cliff with this nonsense.

      Enough Garbage.

      Just stop.

    570. Marv says:

      Pure speculation, but Trump plus 2 in the head to head is a reasonable guess given the strong JA over the last several nights. Anyone else?

    571. jaichind says:

      https://www.newsweek.com/former-labour-leader-jeremy-corbyn-suspended-over-anti-semitism-1543207

      The former UK LAB leader Corbyn and the UK version Bernie Sanders has been suspended from the UK LAB party

    572. Smack says:

      All Early Voting – Florida

      ————

      Oct 29th / 8:30am

      DEM: 3,005,325 40.47%

      GOP: 2,803,761 37.76%

    573. Wes says:

      Dems have always won early voting in NC, Jaichind. That’s just how things are. They last won across the board in the state in 2008 when they built up a whopping 675k advantage in early voting. Republicans reduced that advantage to 530k on Election Day.

      Going by every election since then, Dems have always outvoted Republicans by at least 250k votes only to have Republicans narrow the gap on Election Day.

    574. Gordon Allen says:

      6 straight days of Trump approval at 51-52. I believe the 40% strong disapproval is as low as it’s been in my recall. To coin a double negative,it can’t mean nothing. Especially with a D+4 .

    575. Smack says:

      #586

      Just like when comparing 2016 All Early Voting vs 2012 All Early Voting…the important numbers were All Early Voting percentage of Party Registration between DEM & GOP.

      In 2016, day before the election, these numbers showed Trump was doing much better than polls were showing and much better than Romney in swing states.

      In 2020…using same tool in the tool box…again, Trump doing much better than polls are showing.

    576. Stonewall DW says:

      “there is greater Dem enthusiasm.”

      I must have missed all the Biden rallies that had 40,000 cheering people.

      I must have missed all the spontaneous car parades with Biden flags waving, and I must have missed the links to the all the bakeries where Biden cookies way outsold the Trump cookies.

      Don’t get me wrong, a lot of people are voting Biden, but that’s not the same as being enthused.

    577. jaichind says:

      Gallop poll still has DRI at 32/32/37. While Trump’s approval is at 46/53 for RV it is 44/55 for LV. But it has Trump’s approval with R is 95%!!!. This does not compute. Only way for this and the early voting numbers to match is the independent turnout lean very heavy against Trump.

      I suspect this will be the Dem talking point over the weekend: Massive anti-Trump independent vote

    578. Smack says:

      In Nevada, North Carolina and soon Florida…All Early Voting 2020 GOP percentages will be higher than 2016 All Early Voting percentages….DEM’s will be lower in all 3 states.

      I think this indicates state polls are wrong again just like in 2016. But we shall see shortly.

    579. Stonewall DW says:

      Looking at this Marist poll of FL showing Biden +5. Given the early voting, and what’s left to vote, for that poll to be true, Biden would have to be getting 99% of Ds, a HUGE crossover of Rs, and most of the indies.

    580. jaichind says:

      597. I am not sure ratios like this matter as much IF early vote is much heavier than 2016. Meaning if the early vote went from 1/3 to 2/3 of the overall vote it does not matter if the D-R margin in terms of % went down since there will be a lot less in day vote to make up for it.

      I think looking at absolute vote gap is better. We have to assume the election day vote will be much more heavy for Trump, perhaps even in absolute terms when compared to 2016. If so then if we keep the D-R total vote margin simialr to 2016 then Trump is in good shape to increase his winning margin.

    581. Stonewall DW says:

      Back at the start of the COVID shutdown I asked the question, how many Americans will die of colon cancer because at the time of their original scheduled appointment it was still stage 1 or 2, but by the time they got in after rescheduling, it had moved to death sentence stage 4?

      Samuel Lovett
      @samueljlovett
      ·
      4h
      50,000 cases of cancer left undiagnosed due to Covid=19 disruption, research from
      @macmillancancer
      shows

    582. OHIO Joe says:

      I just tried to post something and I got a message saying that your comments are being moderated.

    583. George says:

      Oct 29, 2020 – Morning Reader Data Points:

      “If the presidential election was held today, would you vote for Donald Trump or Joe Biden?”

      National Daily Black Likely Voter % For @POTUS – October 26-29, 2020

      Mon 10/26 – 27%
      Tue 10/27 – 30%
      Wed 10/28 – 30%
      Thu 10/29 – 31%

      — Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) October 29, 2020

    584. JC says:

      Something that is odd this cycle compared to other cycles in North Carolina is how many ‘undesignated’ voters there are when it comes to race.

      In 2012 it was 98,815 (2%)
      In 2016 it was 97,108 (3%)
      In 2020 so far it’s 342,651! (8%)

      This makes it hard to determine what the true percentages of the demographic breakdown are. In 2016 I was calling NC for Trump as an easy win based on the race breakdown of early votes. Meanwhile Nate the slimer was claiming the early vote pointed to a Hillary win based of the dem party id advantage.

      How come I can’t get the slimer’s paycheck when I do a better job at predicting?

    585. Smack says:

      599,

      All I can tell you is that I’m using the same metric today as I used in 2016. It worked out great then…we shall see shortly how it worked out in 2020.

      Measuring All Early party registration percentages in this cycle vs other cycles tell me about party turnout and enthusiasm.

      Biden, using this tool in the tool box, is not winning FL, NC and is starting to slip in NV.

    586. jaichind says:

      602. Well, that is a danger. If the Ras poll that has a tie or narrow Trump lead is based on 30% Black vote for Trump then I would say Trump is behind by 1%-2%. I can see Trump’s Black support going into the teens but 30% is hard to believe.

    587. Phil says:

      Nothing indicates “massive Democratic enthusiasm”

      Not even the Pro Biden college polls show that. And of course if you look at both campaigns on the trail The contrast is stunning.

    588. MrVito says:

      Not long ago, I said that gallups recent numbers would dip during the period at the beginning of October, and to watch for their final dump near the election.

      The important numbers are the ones with leaners.
      I guessed the numbers would be about D+7 in early October (6 to 8), and they were D+8.

      The final dump appears to be 31-31-36 D-R-I based on their survey tabs. Again THIS IS NOT THE NUMBER WITH PREDICTIVE VALUE… I have followed this for a long time.

      It is the numbers with leaners. My estimate of these numbers is D+4.

      This would make a horserace that will be up to turnout.

    589. Sheeple,Jr. says:

      #605-jai
      The IBD/TIPP POll mirrors the Rasmussen(less) poll with the President at 28% of the AA vote.

    590. Smack says:

      All Early Voting – Florida

      Oct 29th / 9:00am

      DEM: 3,008,181 40.46%

      GOP: 2,807,448 37.76%

    591. MrVito says:

      607 Apparently Trump knows this and is barnstorming in country.

    592. Messy says:

      Again, no independents are listed. NONE, the msm is having them at something like 23%

    593. Stonewall DW says:

      Remember that DeSantis won two years ago when the final early vote deficit was 230k. The GOP deficit is about to slip below 200k. And its Thursday.

    594. Messy says:

      I remember when everyone here thought that Romney was going to win at this point in ’12 except me.

    595. MrVito says:

      DeSantis and Scott were saved by an R+4 electorate.

    596. hugh says:

      605. there is a difference between 30% approval and 30% voting for trump. I suspect in the actual head to head, it is not anywhere near 30% blacks voting for trump.

    597. MrVito says:

      614 By the way, that turnout was driven by Trump rallies and Kavanaugh.

    598. hugh says:

      The race in 2018 was only as close as it was because palm beach and broward kept counting votes that they received late under state law For some reason it took Scott days to shut it down. Wont happen this time, because the two criminals who were election supervisors were replaced with republicans.

    599. MrVito says:

      The race in 2018 was close before they started counting more votes, which brought the margin down to 10000.

    600. SoHope says:

      Under 200k in FL

    601. Smack says:

      All Early Voting – Florida
      ———

      Oct 29th / 9:10am

      DEM: 3,011,504 40.45%

      GOP: 2,811,925 37.77%

      Final 2016 FL All Early Voting
      DEM: 39.80%
      GOP: 38.34%

    602. Pitchaboy says:

      The difference in DJT approval and vote share is likely 2 factors:
      1. AA voters who approve of his job but won’t vote for him
      2. Hesitant/shy Trumpers. Some of them will come home.

    603. MrVito says:

      DeSantis and Scott lost independents by 10.

      They were saved by R+4. Desantis got a small bump with minorities that made the small margin a tad bit wider than for Scott.

    604. buster says:

      Smack/JeffP

      Concerning comment 529

      https://www.miamidadedems.org/who_is_winning_the_election_in_florida

      Are they saying there are significant numbers of mail-in ballots that haven’t been tabulated?

    605. RuRu says:

      Watch the Hispanic vote folks.

      This may well be the sleeper change at the margin. Read that Sienna poll out of Texas for example.

      Notice how there is NO discussion about the Hispanic vote this year by the MSM – that is for a reason folks.

      This could be a big deal in AZ, NV, FL, NM (yes) but also in PA and GA – they represent around 5% of the vote. I am not saying Trump wins this vote, but the margins may be bigly in his direction.

    606. Robbie says:

      Chicon says:
      October 29, 2020 at 8:58 am
      Bitter, are you seeing what you want to see?

      – I think Bitter’s point is it’s hard to square some of the optimism in this forum with national and state polls that consistently show Biden ahead and, in some cases, by a rather sizable margin.

    607. Wes says:

      Messy says:
      October 29, 2020 at 10:04 am
      I remember when everyone here thought that Romney was going to win at this point in ’12 except me.

      This is an example of why I call you Messy the Moron. Several of us, including me, were saying Obama would beat Romney.

    608. Sheeple,Jr. says:

      Robbie
      Maybe this year is 2016 deja vue all over again(Yogi Berra)! Hope your job gets secured soon.

    609. Jeff G. says:

      buster,

      That page is giving the same numbers without the context of comparing it to 2016 and adding the fact that D’s are more likely to submit VBM this year, which means their lead would have to be much bigger than than EV+VBM total in 2016 for Biden to be on track for winning Florida.

    610. MrVito says:

      There are about 1.8 million unreturned vbm ballots in FL.

    611. BRENT says:

      Larry Schweikart
      @LarrySchweikart
      ·
      10m
      FL In Person Early Vote
      Rs +431,154

      VBM-IPEV= Ds +189,754

    612. hugh says:

      I am not going to bother to read what any dem writes currently, but it is my understanding that in miami a lot of vbm ballots were not signed are are rejected. they can be perfected if the voter is found and signs the form. What we did with my parents was check online to make sure their vbm ballots were accepted. If they were not we would have had them do another one. I am not sure how it works if the voter doesnt check. There is a place to voluntarily add your phone number or email or both. My guess is that if they did not sign the ballot they did not provide the contact information. So good luck hunting them down.

    613. Pitchaboy says:

      Pessimism should come from the MSM data.
      Optimism should come from a handful of pollsters and EV data for what it is worth(we still don’t have a handle on indies but my gut is he loses it overall by 5 to 10 nationally but a lot closer in crucial states).
      We are going to find out in 4 days if this is large scale polling malpractice to suppress the R vote or irrational exuberance.

    614. Chicon says:

      626 – It is also hard to square the polls with many other proven metrics. But we see what we want to see, eh?

    615. Pitchaboy says:

      Be that as it may, I strongly believe FL is done and dusted.

    616. Robbie says:

      Sheeple,Jr. says:
      October 29, 2020 at 10:21 am
      Robbie
      Maybe this year is 2016 deja vue all over again(Yogi Berra)! Hope your job gets secured soon.

      – First, thanks.

      Second, I don’t discount any option right now.

    617. Robbie says:

      This isn’t an issue most in this forum care about anymore, but there’s a small chance we could see 100,000 new cases of corona confirmed tomorrow.

      If that happens, it’s going to be the media fixation with just three days to go. I don’t know how many people across the country are paying attention to it, but it’s something I fear governors are going to use to justify new lockdowns.

    618. Tina says:

      I still Care about it.

      -Jebot

    619. hugh says:

      I am with pitch.

      Also, desantis won by 35K, Scott did worse. The reason is that desantis was running for governor and is big on charter schools. that is a single issue vote for many minority women in FL. Those same voters will go for Trump. Without broward and pb cheating Desantis would have won by about 100k, in a very tough year for reps.

    620. Bitterlaw says:

      Chicon- I want Trump to win. I don’t know if he will. Both can be true.

    621. Tina says:

      Good job, Larry

      Jeff Stein
      @JStein_WaPo
      · 53m
      White House’s Larry Kudlow on GDP numbers: “It’s a strong, strong economy. The v-shaped concept I coined awhile back looking pretty good right now”

    622. Stonewall DW says:

      “square some of the optimism in this forum with national and state polls that consistently show Biden ahead”

      You mean the same polls that were way off in 2016? Like that one final poll of MI four years ago that had Hillary +20?

    623. Tina says:

      The presstitutes cannot suppress this.

      Newt Gingrich
      @newtgingrich
      ·
      1h
      The 33% growth in gdp should end the argument about a Trump recovery versus a Biden Depression. When added to lowest jobless claims in 7 months this is solid proof President Trump knows how to put Americans back to work and Biden knows how to hide in a basement.

    624. jason says:

      I am not optimistic or pessimistic.’

      I am zen with the idea we might have reached a turning point, and a majority of Americans are now comfortable with the nanny state and socialism.

      This has been on the horizon for awhile, and I think given the education young people are receiving combined with the ideological bent of the MSM, I don’t see how it will be reversed.

      I hope Trump wins and staves this off for awhile but I am afraid this ideology is rapidly becoming a majority.

    625. Robbie says:

      Tina says:
      October 29, 2020 at 10:33 am
      I still Care about it.

      -Jebot

      – Yes, I do. Why? Because it has ruined my job and it may be years before I get it back and years before the country is remotely normal again. But you do you.

    626. Tina says:

      Did we even have a recession?

      We did not get two quarters of gdp declines, as touted by bj back in 2000.

    627. Smack says:

      All Early Voting – Florida
      ———

      Oct 29th / 9:36am

      DEM: 3,015,391 40.43%

      GOP: 2,817,349 37.78%

      Final 2016 FL All Early Voting
      DEM: 39.80%
      GOP: 38.34%

    628. Robbie says:

      Stonewall DW says:
      October 29, 2020 at 10:36 am
      “square some of the optimism in this forum with national and state polls that consistently show Biden ahead”

      You mean the same polls that were way off in 2016? Like that one final poll of MI four years ago that had Hillary +20

      – Certainly some of the state polls were, but the national polling average did a pretty good job predicting the national total.

      If the national polling average is as accurate in 2020 as it was in 2016, then I don’t see how Trump can win the EV while losing the national vote by 6 or more, but we’ll see.

    629. Tina says:

      230 their arses.

      House Judiciary GOP
      @JudiciaryGOP
      ·
      1h
      ?#BREAKING: Twitter Suspends U.S. Border Chief For Celebrating Wall’s Protection From Illegal Aliens

      Seriously,
      @Jack
      ?

    630. Tina says:

      I heart Miles.

      -jebot

    631. Boog says:

      I think people need to start to realizing that most of the MSM polls are not “skewed” or off for some benign reason, such as a failure to reach the shy trump voters. I believe the real reason is corruption. There is now a concerted effort to generate fraudulent poll numbers in a last ditch effort to depress republican turnout.

      If ABC and the Washington Post, and their like, are willing to use all of their efforts to censor and suppress a volcanic news story like the Biden “big guy” graft scheme, despite a sea of documented evidence, what on earth would stop them from generating polls that say Biden +17 in WI six days before the election.

      At this point, we need to assume these polls are, for the most part, rigged and fraudulent. Every other visible metric points to a red electoral bloodbath.

    632. Country Dick Montana says:

      https://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/john-lydon-trump-press-attacks

      Johnny Rotten voting for Trump. Gotta love it!!

      “Once you go down that current Democratic Party way, there’s no return from that,” Lydon said. “It’s slowly but surely rule after rule after rule that will stifle the living daylights out of you.”

    633. jason says:

      This isn’t an issue most in this forum care about anymore, but there’s a small chance we could see 100,000 new cases of corona confirmed tomorrow.”

      I am sure you and your MSM mentors will keep us informed.

    634. Tina says:

      Donald J. Trump
      @realDonaldTrump
      GDP number just announced. Biggest and Best in the History of our Country, and not even close. Next year will be FANTASTIC!!! However, Sleepy Joe Biden and his proposed record setting tax increase, would kill it all. So glad this great GDP number came out before November 3rd.

    635. Country Dick Montana says:

      “Every other visible metric points to a red electoral bloodbath.”

      No bloodbath/landslide in either direction, although a small tilt to the DEMS will result in one for the Country. I see and am hoping for status quo. Trump win, GOP control of the Senate with slightly fewer, and DEM control of the House with sightly fewer.

    636. Tina says:

      Miles was a lgubment employee.

      Lol, this is embarrassing.

      Major fail by the jebots and russian hoaxers.

      ted

      Ari Fleischer
      @AriFleischer
      ·
      2h
      “Every time you read…that an anonymous source is “senior,” interpret it as “junior”.

      Anon sources have occasionally been necessary for journalists. Their overuse, mischaracterization, &lack of accountability in the age of Trump…is…out of control.”

    637. MrVito says:

      Kissimmee area south of Orlando has flipped to GOP advantage over 2016

    638. Boog says:

      CDM – to clarify, the electoral bloodbath will be in the electoral college. Trump holds 2016 states and likely collects 2 or 3 more, such as NV, MN and NH. Senate is a hold, maybe -1. House is a reach, but the numbers should tighten considerably.

    639. Chicon says:

      464 – Well, I’d say your job was not ruined by the virus. It was ruined by the msm that you continually follow, hook, line and sinker. And by the big government politicians that you always seem to love. Quit blaming the virus.

    640. Chicon says:

      661 – was for Robbie in 646.

    641. John says:

      Some numbers coming from the IBD/TIPP internals are eyecatching….
      males (Trump 4) questionable at best
      Whites (Trump 6) real questionable
      Rural (Biden 35%) get real-not even close
      Hispanic (Trump 49%) if that is the case then it’s over
      Christian (Biden 43%) nope-not going to happen

    642. Robbie says:

      jason says:
      October 29, 2020 at 10:47 am
      This isn’t an issue most in this forum care about anymore, but there’s a small chance we could see 100,000 new cases of corona confirmed tomorrow.”

      I am sure you and your MSM mentors will keep us informed.

      – I will.

    643. Robbie says:

      Chicon says:
      October 29, 2020 at 10:54 am
      464 – Well, I’d say your job was not ruined by the virus. It was ruined by the msm that you continually follow, hook, line and sinker. And by the big government politicians that you always seem to love. Quit blaming the virus.

      – No.

    644. Smack says:

      All Early Voting – Florida
      ———

      Oct 29th / 9:58am

      DEM: 3,019,468 40.42%

      GOP: 2,823,424 37.79%

      Final 2016 FL All Early Voting
      DEM: 39.80%
      GOP: 38.34%

    645. hugh says:

      THe increase in covid cases now cuts both ways. Most people do not want to shut down further and that favors trump. Also, by large margins young people do not want to shut down. That keeps them from voting along with the fact colleges are out or locked down.

    646. Phil says:

      Robbie, Trump is not going to lose the national vote by 6 or more. McCain lost to Obama in 2008 by just over 7 in the best Democratic environment since 1976. It’s going to be by an absolute max of 4 with most all of that coming from California, NY and Illinois. The national Gap will be 2 to 3.

      It’s a State by state election and Pa is the ballgame because Trump absolutely has his core four – Florida, Ohio, NC, and Iowa.

      BTW, Trump will have the lead in Pa on election night.

    647. jan says:

      I keep looking @ Dave’s “crushing” 17 point lead poll in WI, and find it so unworthy of posting, let alone reveling in.

    648. John says:

      New Ras….Biden +1, 48-47%

    649. hugh says:

      Boog is right these polls are designed to be rigged to try and depress the trump vote and encourage a biden vote.

      good news another blue county Osceola gap % now favors trump.

      Since dems went all in on VBM, I think we can safely assume they expected their vote % gap to be higher not lower than in 2016. If anyone thinks that dems are now going to flood ED voting after being told its not safe. You can forget it.

      Florida is completely out of reach. I have no doubt. THe only thing propping it up are fake polls and a few rich dems losing money like crazy on predictit. The goal now in FL is to win some house seats. Like Charlie Crist

    650. Stonewall DW says:

      FL gap down to 194,330

    651. jason says:

      #BREAKING: Twitter Suspends U.S. Border Chief For Celebrating Wall’s Protection From Illegal Alien”

      This is another reason that if Trump loses, there will be no “comeback” in 2022 and 2024.

      The censorship on anything remotely conservative will be massive, and a Biden DOJ and a Dem congress will encourage more of it, not less.

      The stifling on any dissent will be even more damaging than the changes in voting laws, amnesty, etc.

    652. Gordon Allen says:

      So Ras has Trump 5 points below his approval rate; probably because the news has been so great for him lately. That simply isn’t possible.There must be Independents and Democrat’s in there who approve of Trump but don’t want to say they’ll vote for him; the shy Trump voter in the flesh

    653. Chicon says:

      665 – it is a rare fish that knows it is wet, chief.

    654. Gordon Allen says:

      The him sarcastically was Biden,

    655. Stonewall DW says:

      673 – exactly spot on.

      If this blog was around in the fourth century Roman empire, we would have people saying, “Come on man, the empire has been here for hundreds of years. Just let the goths finish coming through and then we will just bounce back…they might even agree to fight for the empire free of charge.”

      Democratic Party Platform:
      1) Anti-Police
      2) Pro-Looting
      3) Sieze retirement savings
      4) Sieze guns
      5) Pro-illegal immigration
      6) Rural America must bail out the failed Democrat cities
      7) If you are not a person of color, you are a racist whether you want to be or not.
      8) Pro-mutilation of young children
      9) Open prison doors and let them all go free
      10) End the free speech of anyone who dissents
      11) Anti-National Anthem
      12) Pro-Mail out ballots to all people: citizens, non-citizens, living, and dead.
      13) Pro-anarchy
      14) Pro-cancel culture
      15) Pro-rationing of gov’t controlled healthcare
      16) Pro-Force taxpayers to pay off student loan debt instead of the students who took the loans.
      17) Pro-“Green” new deal to devastate the economy with crippling regulations and destroy the energy industry.
      18) Pro-“Republicans are enemies of the state” (so aim your weapons at them carefully)
      19) Endless mob violence unless you vote Democrats into office
      20) Pro-never ending shut downs to keep everyone under government control
      21) Pro-send millions of jobs back to China
      22) Pro-never ending of jobless benefits
      23) Pro-living wage
      24) DC to become 51st state
      25) Anti-Peace in the middle east
      26) Pro-sex with minors
      27) Anti-vaccine until after the election.
      28) Pro-replacing lower court system with lynch mobs.
      29) Pro-Packing the SCOTUS with commies
      30) Promised to BAN fracking
      31) Promise to END THE OIL INDUSTRY
      32) Taxpayer funded ‘cunity’ college for all

    656. Smacks says:

      All Early Voting – Florida

      ——-

      Oct 29th / 10:15am

      DEM: 3,024,020 40.40%

      GOP: 2,829,690 37.80%

      Final 2016 FL All Early Voting
      DEM: 39.80%
      GOP: 38.34%

    657. Pitchaboy says:

      AZ moving great. Lead Maricopa. Stay positive.

    658. Stonewall DW says:

      Baris: Democrats are in a worse position in NC than they were four years ago.

      Indies would have to go pretty significantly to Biden for him to win NC.

    659. jason says:

      I will not fight anymore if Biden wins and the DEMS get power. it will be up to my kids and grandchildren”

      Yep, me neither. I will view the die as cast as far as the system of government, and will live my life accordingly. I will still vote, but that is about it.

      After decades of activism in the R party, I thought I would be sad at missing the 2018 and 2020 primaries. It was actually liberating.

      I probably spend too much time worrying about politics anyway. I need to find another “hobby”.

    660. Robbie says:

      Erick Erickson
      @EWErickson
      To be competitive in GA, Democrats need a black turnout of at least 30%. Right now, in early voting, it is barely above 27%. To win statewide, it needs to be closer to 35%. Some Dems are whispering they think Abrams knows if Biden wins, she loses 2022, so isn’t helping much.

      – Very interesting.

    661. LewisS says:

      Pitch,

      Where do you track AZ early voting?

    662. Jeff G. says:

      680. DW, that should be no problem since the Atlanta Journal Constitution poll had Biden winning indies in that state 59-10.

      Another datapoint that proves the MSM is knowingly putting out bogus polls.

    663. jason says:

      464 – Well, I’d say your job was not ruined by the virus. It was ruined by the msm that you continually follow, hook, line and sinker. And by the big government politicians that you always seem to love. Quit blaming the virus.”

      Exactly.

      You reap what you sow.

      You can’t have it both ways. If you want to support the MSM narrative that lead to the shutdowns, then you shouldn’t whine when the shutdowns cost you your job.

    664. GatorBJ says:

      OH NC and FL lost. A MONTH OF TROLLING DOWN THE TOILET!

    665. Robbie says:

      jason says:
      October 29, 2020 at 11:29 am
      464 – Well, I’d say your job was not ruined by the virus. It was ruined by the msm that you continually follow, hook, line and sinker. And by the big government politicians that you always seem to love. Quit blaming the virus.”

      Exactly.

      You reap what you sow.

      You can’t have it both ways. If you want to support the MSM narrative that lead to the shutdowns, then you shouldn’t whine when the shutdowns cost you your job.

      – Once again, Jason makes clear I deserved to lose my job because I didn’t care for the way Trump acted the last four years.

      This is who Jason has always has been. No one played a bigger role in turning this forum into a viper’s nest than he did during the 2008 campaign when he and Howard Dean attacked anyone who said McCain was going to lose.

    666. jason says:

      If this blog was around in the fourth century Roman empire, we would have people saying, “Come on man, the empire has been here for hundreds of years. Just let the goths finish coming through and then we will just bounce back…they might even agree to fight for the empire free of charge.”

      Yep, people here that say “the US will go on” and “Western Civilization won’t end” are missing the point.

      The US will go on. The world won’t end if Biden wins. It will just be a different US with a different take on our history, our values and our heritage.

      Nobody is saying the US won’t survive. Just that if will be a very different US.

    667. Stonewall DW says:

      I was prepared today to move on to other things other than Florida, as honestly I feared the numbers would start to plateau and the GOP wouldn’t get much better than 200k gap.

      My goodness, the Dem freefall continues however.

      Gap now is 192,875

    668. Pitchaboy says:

      AZ from Schweikert. Lead cut in half from 110 to 55k.

    669. jason says:

      You can’t have it both ways. If you want to support the MSM narrative that lead to the shutdowns, then you shouldn’t whine when the shutdowns cost you your job.

      – Once again, Jason makes clear I deserved to lose my job because I didn’t care for the way Trump acted the last four years.”

      Wins non-sequitur of the year!

    670. Tina says:

      If it’s bad in Ga for China Biden, assuming Erick the Red is right,, sending him to that state was a waste.

      Was another lid called door today!

    671. Stonewall DW says:

      688 – exactly. Tourists can still walk through the ruins in Rome. It doesn’t mean the Roman Empire still exists.

    672. jason says:

      when he and Howard Dean attacked anyone who said McCain was going to lose.”

      LOL

      Wins revisionism of HHR history award!

    673. jason says:

      No one played a bigger role in turning this forum into a viper’s nest than he did”

      Ok Bitter, cough up the points.

    674. MrVito says:

      Three places that are not that much different from 2016 in terms of the volume of early vote to this point are CO, IA, NV.

      In CO and IA, there is a larger gap over 2016 with registered partisans in favor of Dems, which makes sense due to the changes in early vote between parties. However, in NV, there is little change.

      Finally, in the modeled share of the votes, the GOP does better over 2016 in all three states.

      NV 10.1 –> 1.3
      CO 7.9 –> 7.8
      IA 11.6 –> 6.6

      SO, TargetSmart is finding a lot more GOP cross and unaffiliated this year pro GOP.

      I leave it to the reader whether that is real or an issue with TargetSmart.

    675. Tina says:

      Yikes

      Thao Nguyen
      @nguyenthevote
      · 2h
      biden holds just a 5-point lead (48%-43%) over trump among florida latinos in the latest telemundo / mason-dixon poll

      clinton won them by 27 points in 2016 according to exit polls

      trump leads biden among cubans by 71% to 23%
      https://politico.com/news/2020/10/29/biden-narrow-lead-florida-hispanics-433570

    676. jason says:

      Having single handedly turned HHR into a “viper’s nest”, I don’t know what else I can aspire to.

    677. Justin says:

      A site for tracking Arizona numbers:

      https://www.saguarostrategies.com/arizona-ballot-returns

      What is the latest in NC. Anyone have a link to the updated .pdf (the Joe is Done site seems to lag in NC).

    678. jason says:

      GatorBJ says:
      October 29, 2020 at 11:31 am

      OH NC and FL lost. A MONTH OF TROLLING DOWN THE TOILET”

      Don’t feel bad. Life goes on.

    679. BayernFan says:

      697…. So why is Biden still ahead there? Which large group of voters is Trump losing over 2016?

    680. Tina says:

      Ahead, I don’t think based on the polls.

      Last one had trump up 5.

    681. Justin says:

      697 – you have to wonder how many of those Hispanics are registered Democrats. Also, the super red counties east of the Panhandle have a ton of Democrats voting Trump.

    682. Stonewall DW says:

      Its funny if you stop to think about it. Someone could have spent the last several months going door to door for Biden, or sit in a phone bank, or could have been texting college students to get out the vote, but instead the troll spent months here trying to discourage 30 Republicans to get them not to vote, when they all are going to vote anyway. Epic failure and waste of time.

    683. Chicon says:

      Robbie – the point is that the entities you love and admire – the mainstream media and the moderate, soft Republicans you always drool over – bear a large amount of responsibility for the economic impact of the Red Death. You constant focus on the topic was CREATED by them. You are a victim of the propaganda and don’t realize it. You are one of the unwashed rabble that will believe anything the cool kids tell you, no matter how silly.

    684. Tina says:

      I actually drool over Democrats.

      -Jebot

    685. Gordon Allen says:

      “578 Sheeple. That regional breakdown is at least ballpark ( New England is slightly too Biden) except for the South. Trump only ahead 49-46 is WAY off to Trump’s detriment. It’s a bigger gap than that.
      The West looks about right,and the Midwest not too bad really with nearly a 5 point Trump lead.
      I think Trump is up in the south by 8 at least,and probably behind by 22-25 in NE. How that shakes out mathematically I don’t know,but my guess would be around 2-3 points.
      I have a bigger problem with Rasmussen, although D+4 is a hurdle. I simply refuse to believe an incumbent with an approval rate in the low 50’s isn’t ahead of a non descript challenger like Biden.

    686. Stonewall DW says:

      “697… So why is Biden still ahead there? ”

      He’s not. Look at the early voting.

      Look at…

      Rasmussen – Trump +4
      Susquehanna – Trump +4.5
      Tyson Group – Trump +2
      ABC/Washington Post – Trump +4
      Trafalgar – Trump +2
      Insider Advantage – Trump +3
      Democracy Institute – Trump +4

      All of these agree with what we see in the early vote.

    687. LewisS says:

      A way to look at FL early vote is that Rs are gaining about 13,000 votes per every 100,000 votes cast. So the rate at which the D ballot lead falls depends entirely on the velocity of early voting.

      I suppose the composition of R/D/I on election day in FL may mirror what we’re seeing in early voting — 46% R / 33% D and 21% I.

      If so, everyone can do the math for a turnout of 10,500,000 or so.

    688. Smack says:

      All Early Voting – Florida

      ——-

      Oct 29th / 10:50am

      DEM: 3,031,978 40.36%

      GOP: 2,840,849 37.82%

      Final 2016 FL All Early Voting
      DEM: 39.80%
      GOP: 38.34%

    689. MrVIto says:

      The one problem with Erickson’s analysis is that Georgia is still less white in EV than in 2016.

    690. Michelle Obama vs the DNC buffet table says:

      Oh My: Two Polls Put Trump In Range In … Minnesota

      Trump is gaining in RCP avg – Biden down to 48/43.3

      https://hotair.com/archives/ed-morrissey/2020/10/29/oh-two-polls-put-trump-range-minnesota/

    691. Wobbles says:

      Robbie – the point is that the entities you love and admire – the mainstream media and the moderate, soft Republicans you always drool over – bear a large amount of responsibility for the economic impact of the Red Death. You constant focus on the topic was CREATED by them. You are a victim of the propaganda and don’t realize it. You are one of the unwashed rabble that will believe anything the cool kids tell you, no matter how silly.”

      This is true. I am addicted to fake news. Take pity on me.

    692. Stonewall DW says:

      712 – what? It doesn’t resonate with voters to want to wait for 30 minutes in line at the gas station only to have to pay $6 a gallon?

    693. Michelle Obama vs the DNC buffet table says:

      Poll: Biden Holds Only Narrow Lead Among Florida Hispanics

      Biden leads Trump among Hispanics by just 48-43 percent, numbers that could mean trouble for the former vice president in the nation’s biggest swing state.

      While Florida isn’t a must-win state for Biden as it is for Trump, a failure to generate stronger numbers among Hispanics could ensure he loses the state’s 29 electoral votes. Clinton received 62 percent of the Florida Hispanic vote in 2016, according to exit polls, and still lost here.

      “If Biden is going to flip Florida, he has to at least match Clinton’s numbers among Hispanics and that looks like it’s not going to happen,” said Brad Coker, pollster for Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, who conducted the poll.

      https://hotair.com/headlines/archives/2020/10/poll-biden-holds-narrow-lead-among-florida-hispanics/

      Chomp chomp chomp…

    694. Smack says:

      #711

      Do you have a link to Georgia Early Voting Numbers or are you going off of Target numbers?

    695. Stonewall DW says:

      gap in FL down to 191,129

    696. MrVito says:

      Funny thing… if Trump could replicate those numbers with Hispanics enough to give him a shot at NM,

      then he can win the electoral college (tie + house delegations) without the northern rust belt and without the 2 congressional districts.

    697. Robbie says:

      MrVIto says:
      October 29, 2020 at 11:52 am
      The one problem with Erickson’s analysis is that Georgia is still less white in EV than in 2016.

      – Yes, I agree with this. In addition, it’s likely more whites will vote for Biden than otherwise would have in the past. Trump wouldn’t be going to the state on Sunday if there wasn’t concern.

    698. MrVito says:

      716 I am going off the Georgia numbers. See Michael mcDonalds US elections project.

    699. LewisS says:

      Regarding FL Hispanics, they’re registered 38% D / 26% R and 35% I.

      If Mason-Dixon is correct, that’s a lot of crossover votes and Independent votes for Trump.

    700. jason says:

      In addition, it’s likely more whites will vote for Biden than otherwise would have in the past.”

      LOL. Based on what exactly?

    701. MrVito says:

      722 Just like Obama.

    702. Stonewall DW says:

      gap in FL down to 189,462

    703. Gordon Allen says:

      This continued reference to 2018 in Florida ( close):1 The Democrat’s stole 72,000 votes before being stopped by a court order2 Hurricane Michael slammed ( Category 5) into the Panhandle less than a month before the election 3 As bad, we had the worst red tide in memory ( a Florida equivalent to COVID) which the Democrat’s and media blamed ( like COVID) on Governor Scott. It hurt tourism, fishing etc. Barring those ” special” factors the GOP would have won by 1-1.5%,which is the norm here. Which is why a possible 4 point win by Trump would be extraordinary.

    704. Smack says:

      All Early Voting – Florida
      ——-

      Oct 29th / 10:50am

      DEM: 3,031,978 40.36%

      GOP: 2,840,849 37.82%

      Oct 29th / 11:10am

      DEM: 3,035,422 40.35%

      GOP: 2,845,960 37.83%

      Final 2016 FL All Early Voting
      DEM: 39.80%
      GOP: 38.34%

    705. Robbie says:

      jason says:
      October 29, 2020 at 12:05 pm
      In addition, it’s likely more whites will vote for Biden than otherwise would have in the past.”

      LOL. Based on what exactly?

      – Where do many white voters live? The suburbs.

      In which direction are the suburbs currently trending? Towards Biden.

    706. Tina says:

      Fauci said they did it right though.

      Phil Kerpen
      @kerpen
      · 2m
      Europe now accounts for 46% of global coronavirus cases
      https://abcnews.go.com/International/europe-struggling-2nd-surge-covid-19-case-worse/story?id=73880488

    707. WizardofCozz says:

      I think the issue with republicans and suburbs is that they are becoming less white, and the types of minorities that live in suburbs are not going to vote republican.

    708. Tina says:

      Michigan’s Debbie Dingbat is raising concerns about Biden in Michigan.

    709. WizardofCozz says:

      According to an article from Bloomberg (Yes I know, not always the best),

      Whites comprised less than ten percent of growth of the suburban population in America’s 100 largest metros between the years 2000 and 2010.

      I can only imagine that has been even worse the last 10 years.

    710. boomtapp says:

      October 29th

      Mike Pence – Des Moines, Iowa
      Mike Pence – Reno, Nevada
      Trump Jr – Bangor, Maine
      Trump Jr – Manchester, New Hampshire
      Trump – Fayetteville, North Carolina
      Trump – Tampa, Florida
      Karen Pence – Edinboro, Pennsylvania
      Eric Trump – Lansing, Michigan
      Ivanka – Waymart, Pennsylvania
      Eric Trump – Grandville, Michigan

      October 30th

      Lara Trump – Raleigh, North Carolina
      Mike Pence – Flagstaff, Arizona
      Karen Pence – Wilton, New Hampshire
      Trump – Waterford Township, Michigan
      Trump – Green Bay, Wisconsin
      Mike Pence – Tuscon, Arizona
      Eric Trump – Ellerbe, North Carolina
      Trump – Rochester, Minnesota
      Eric Trump – Elizabeth Town, North Carolina
      Trump Jr – York Springs, Pennsylvania
      Ivanka – Johnson Creek, Wisconsin

      October 31st

      Trump Jr – Transverse City, Michigan
      Eric Trump – Longwood, Florida
      Eric Trump – Jacksonville Beach, Florida
      Trump Jr – Davison, Michigan
      Trump – Reading, Pennsylvania
      Trump – Butler, Pennsylvania
      Trump – Bucks Country, Pennsylvania

      ***

      Not a single visit to TX or GA. hmmm…

    711. MrVito says:

      731 She should stand down… didn’t she hear he’s up by 10?

    712. Gordon Allen says:

      578 Sheeple. I went and checked. The two most populous states in NE Massachusetts and Connection went for Hillary by 27% and 13%. The 30 point lead in NE is definitely too high,and the Trump lead in the South too low.

    713. Tina says:

      Breaking

      Kampala has been dispatched to Florida on Saturday.

      She will do 3 rallies.

    714. MrVito says:

      Tampa is good…. Trump likely needs to hit Pensacola, Jacksonville, and Ft Myers to round off Florida.

    715. Tina says:

      I did not see a Georgia rally.

      Things are fluid and trump will be doing 11 events the last 2 days.

    716. Tina says:

      Kampala is in Browaed, Miami dade , and palm beach..

      Wow, desperate.

    717. Stonewall DW says:

      Gap in FL now 187,489

    718. Tina says:

      *she will be there Saturday.

    719. JeffS says:

      #736- That’s 3 Kampala rallies, reaching almost 100 potential voters! Yikes!

    720. Robbie says:

      Tina says:
      October 29, 2020 at 12:25 pm
      I did not see a Georgia rally.

      Things are fluid and trump will be doing 11 events the last 2 days.

      – He’s going to be in Rome, Georgia on Sunday. The FAA has issued a TFR for the area that’s only used for presidential trips.

      Of course, the schedule could change between now and then.

    721. MrVito says:

      “Kampala is in Browaed, Miami dade , and palm beach..”

      Why? To drive up Trump’s Hispanic vote even more?

    722. jason says:

      In which direction are the suburbs currently trending? Towards LIBERALISM.

      Fixed it for you.

    723. Stonewall DW says:

      Who is running Biden’s campaign?

      South FL full of Cubans and Venezuelans who have come here to escape marxism, and so Dems send a marxist to convince them they should pull the lever for marxism.

    724. Sean says:

      Colorado may be an apples to apples comparison as it’s 100% vote by mail.

      Three places that are not that much different from 2016 in terms of the volume of early vote to this point are CO, IA, NV.

      In CO and IA, there is a larger gap over 2016 with registered partisans in favor of Dems, which makes sense due to the changes in early vote between parties. However, in NV, there is little change.

      Finally, in the modeled share of the votes, the GOP does better over 2016 in all three states.

      NV 10.1 –> 1.3
      CO 7.9 –> 7.8
      IA 11.6 –> 6.6

      SO, TargetSmart is finding a lot more GOP cross and unaffiliated this year pro GOP.

      I leave it to the reader whether that is real or an issue with TargetSmart.

    725. Robbie says:

      jason says:
      October 29, 2020 at 12:32 pm
      In which direction are the suburbs currently trending? Towards LIBERALISM.

      Fixed it for you.

      – No evidence of that, but you’ve convinced yourself the suburbs are gone forever and the Republican Party should only concern itself with rural voters.

    726. Smack says:

      All Early Voting – Florida
      ———

      Oct 29th / 11:35am

      DEM: 3,039,539 40.33%

      GOP: 2,852,050 37.84%

      Final 2016 FL All Early Voting
      DEM: 39.80%
      GOP: 38.34%

    727. mnw says:

      Robbie

      I’m treating you with respect. I don’t call you anything but Robbie any more. Now…

      You can’t just post that “Rep. Ann Wagner (R-inc; MO-02) looks likely to lose” without giving me (us) some sense of why you’re saying that, OK?

      It’s quite possible that you saw a poll which I missed. If that’s the case, just tell us what poll it was, OK?

      I explained yesterday why I’m skeptical of your claim that “Wagner looks likely to lose”:

      1) The last time Trump was on the ballot, Wagner won by about 20%– the same as Trump’s OWN margin in MO in 2016, i.e., 19%.

      2) The PVI of the district is R+8.

      3) In 2018, in a bad GOP year nationally, & an off-year election without Trump to boost turnout, Wagner STILL won by 4 points.

      So why on earth would Wagner suffer a 20% drop-off from 2016, with Trump on the ballot AGAIN in ruby red MO?

      Just tell me what I’m missing. That’s all I’m asking of you.

    728. Tina says:

      Looks like Kampala is playing defense in.florida.

    729. Tina says:

      Vito, last time, Kampala was in Miami dade, she got chased out of town.

    730. Wes says:

      Tina, if Kamala is going to Florida–a state Hillary lost in 2016–isn’t that going on offense by definition?

    731. jason says:

      I think the issue with republicans and suburbs is that they are becoming less white, and the types of minorities that live in suburbs are not going to vote republican.”

      Not only less white.

      Younger, more liberal. Younger, urban professionals can afford 2.5% mortgages in the suburbs.

      You can’t have leftist academia indoctrination for decades without having it show up somewhere.

      And it is showing up in the suburbs.

    732. Dylan says:

      Many people have waxed poetic about how “this election is the most important election in our history” I guess the reason I feel so unsettled is that when I look back to when I was a kid, I could never even contemplate losing freedoms to an extent where I would feel the country was “gone” but that’s the creeping shadowy feeling I get about what happens if Biden/HARRIS get in and start exacting political revenge and payback. Trump has got to pull this off. Or the old saying about how the tree of liberty must be replenished with the blood of patriots from time to time rings true.

    733. jason says:

      o evidence of that, but you’ve convinced yourself the suburbs are gone forever and the Republican Party should only concern itself with rural voters.”

      Never said that. I said the suburbs are becoming more liberal and trending away from Rs.

      I said the base of the party has shifted to the exurbs and rural areas.

      I am skeptical that the liberal voters in the suburbs will “return” to the R party because I think they don’t have anything in common with it ideologically. That is why a “suburban strategy” would never build a strong enough coalition to win.

      I have also said that in order to survive, the R party should champion the working class, white, black and Hispanic. Obviously there are a lot of working class people in the suburbs, and you want their vote, but suburban elites are no longer enough to sustain a viable coalition.

      The exurbs are nothing to sneer at. They are growing faster than suburbs.

      https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2012-07-19/exurbs-the-fastest-growing-areas-in-the-u-s

    734. Stonewall DW says:

      You can vote yourself into socialism, but you will have to shoot your way back out.

    735. Robbie says:

      mnw says:
      October 29, 2020 at 12:35 pm
      Robbie

      I’m treating you with respect. I don’t call you anything but Robbie any more. Now…

      You can’t just post that “Rep. Ann Wagner (R-inc; MO-02) looks likely to lose” without giving me (us) some sense of why you’re saying that, OK?

      It’s quite possible that you saw a poll which I missed. If that’s the case, just tell us what poll it was, OK?

      I explained yesterday why I’m skeptical of your claim that “Wagner looks likely to lose”:

      – Sorry I missed your comment earlier. I was not trying to ignore it. As history has shown here, I don’t ignore much!

      As for Wagner, I’ve seen her seat listed as a tossup by several of the services that handicap races. Could she win? Yes. Her seat is the kind that Republicans are having trouble holding right now.

      Regardless, my point in mentioning her was this. She passed on a layup win in the 2018 Senate race and now could lose her House seat two years later. It was more about how quickly fortunes can change in a rotten environment like 2020 is.

    736. mnw says:

      Fwiw, Robert Barnes has tweeted, “Collins will win.”

      He cites the Baris poll showing her losing the 4-way by 1 point, & losing the H2H by 2 points. I assume Barnes must be counting on momentum.

    737. Smack says:

      All Early Voting – Florida
      ——

      Oct 29th / 11:35am

      DEM: 3,039,539 40.33%

      GOP: 2,852,050 37.84%

      Oct 29th / 11:58am

      DEM: 3,043,996 40.31%

      GOP: 2,857,759 37.84%

      Final 2016 FL All Early Voting
      DEM: 39.80%
      GOP: 38.34%

    738. Wes says:

      If Collins wins, then Dems have no chance of winning the Senate.

    739. Chicon says:

      Mnw – I’d love to see her win. I think she and Trump both played the ACB game quite well, with the angry Trump tweet about not being able to count on her being the cherry on top.

    740. michael corleone says:

      NV SOS just posted update. If trends continue statewide edge for Ds may be smaller in absolute number going in to Election Day than in 2016.

    741. Tina says:

      Mark Knoller
      @markknoller
      · 4h
      Pres Trump expected a big jump in GDP. He told supporters in Arizona yesterday that if it wasn’t big, they didn’t have to vote for him. He can now point to the indicator to show that the economy is undergoing a “super-recovery” on his watch from the pandemic downturn.

    742. Robbie says:

      Ben Shapiro
      @benshapiro
      We have all gone insane. The latest CDC estimates of IFR by age:
      0-19 years: 0.00003
      20-49 years: 0.0002
      50-69 years: 0.005
      70+ years: 0.054

      – I wonder why Anthony Fauci doesn’t mention these numbers? Probably because he’s too busy negotiating his book deal. For those under 50, this isn’t even the flu.

      But give him another presidential medal of freedom.

    743. LewisS says:

      I’ve got faith in Collins pulling it out. Maine polls were too D favorable in 2016 and I think they will show to be too D favorable again.

    744. MrVito says:

      The gap in vbm returns in Florida is now under 2%.

      GOP still getting them in.

    745. boomtapp says:

      new thread.

    746. hugh says:

      vote updates are slow today in FL. The last update was as of 11:02. For some reason the morning updates come slow and by 4 it is caught up.

    747. mnw says:

      758 Robbie

      RE: Wagner

      I don’t know where to begin.

      For Wagner to lose, she’d have to underperform Trump in MO by 20 points! In 2016, she MATCHED Trump’s margin of victory.

      There is no “rotten political environment in 2020” for the GOP… in MISSOURI!

      As for Wagner passing up “a layup” for the Senate in 2018? You’re in some alternate reality. She’s not the kind of candidate who can win a statewide GOP primary, unless she has only token opposition. HAWLEY is.

      Quite frankly, I don’t think your knowledge of MO political history is either wide or deep. RCP has MO ITSELF as “a tossup.” You believe that too?

      You said, “I’m not saying [Wagner] may not win…” Well gee, thanks! She’s already done so 4 times.

      I say Wagner by 10 points or more. Your prediction?

    748. jason says:

      You can vote yourself into socialism, but you will have to shoot your way back out.”

      Yes, and the reason for this is that once entrenched, socialists make changes to ensure they won’t be voted out.

    749. hugh says:

      I have not verified this, but have no reason to doubt it.

      Arizona Update:

      Dem lead down to 56,598 vs 74,080 prior day

      In Maricopa, dem lead is now only 7,793 vs 22,242 prior day.

      But again, we have to rely on the polls. The same polls that told us most republicans would vote on ED and only about 15 % of dems plan on voting on ED.

    750. Scooterboy says:

      This guy was warning of the same thing in 2016. Will he be right again?

      Michael Moore: “Don’t believe these polls… The Trump vote is always being undercounted.”

    751. hugh says:

      Kamala coming to Florida. Wow. Is biden trying to lose florida by a landslide or what? She will not help him in Florida, or at least she should avoid Miami.

    752. Todd McCain says:

      From what I understand the GOP deficit in AZ is now roughly 55K and they have just taken the lead in Maricopa.

    753. hugh says:

      Yes. Todd but always remember the polls. They are the ultimate source of truth this election.

    754. NYCmike says:

      7 7 7 ! ! !

      Jackpot!

      Nevada for Trump! I’m calling it here!

    755. hugh says:

      FLorida is starting to get caught up. As of 12:42 Reps have netted 23K votes. Should finish over 40 maybe over 45K similar to yesterday.

    756. PresidentPaul! says:

      “ Glenn Greenwald resigns from the Intercept over site’s refusal to publish a story about Hunter Biden docs”

      Pretty sure most liberals are just hacks