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    Trump Leads Biden By 2% in MI and 4% in AZ

    So it looks like The Trafalgar Group and Rasmussen Reports are not giving in and will continue to go against the herd and show polls that favor Donald Trump right up until Election Day. The Trafalgar Group released a poll tonight that shows Trump ahead in the state of Michigan.

    PRESIDENT – MICHIGAN (Trafalgar)
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 49%
    Joe Biden (D) 47%

    There have been 14 straight public polls that I have captured that had Joe Biden ahead of Trump (all but one had Biden ahead by at least 7% with the lone one giving Biden a 5% lead). The last MI poll to show Trump ahead before this one was one done October 15-18 by, you guessed it, The Trafalgar Group. This latest poll was done October 25-28 among 1058 likely voters. Meanwhile Rasmussen Reports is giving Donald Trump a 4% lead over Joe Biden in the state of Arizona.

    PRESIDENT – ARIZONA (Rasmussen)
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 49%
    Joe Biden (D) 45%

    While most polls show this race closer than in Michigan, most polls still have given Biden the lead. But this new Rasmussen Reports poll is the largest lead for Trump in any public Arizona pollany public Arizona pollany public Arizona poll since a poll in early October by, you guess it again, The Trafalgar Group.

    There you go everyone who thinks I am too anti-Trump, a post with two great polls for Donald Trump….

    Posted by Dave at 10:46 pm
    Filed under: General | Comments (451)

    451 Responses to “Trump Leads Biden By 2% in MI and 4% in AZ”

    1. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      1st

    2. bartman says:

      First

    3. bartman says:

      Dang.

    4. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      Here is the Iowa poll inquired about on the last thread, and some other polls. It may be very close election.

      IOWA
      Trump 47% (+1)
      Biden 46%
      #IAsen:
      Ernst (R-inc) 48% (+2)
      Greenfield (D) 46%
      @QuinnipiacPoll
      , LV, 10/23-27

      KENTUCKY
      Trump 52% (+13)
      Biden 39%
      #KYsen:
      McConnell (R-inc) 50% (+10)
      McGrath (D) 40%
      @bluegrassctc
      , RV, 10/16-28

      NEVADA
      Biden 50% (+6)
      Trump 44%
      @GravisMarketing
      , LV, 10/27-28

      ALABAMA
      Trump 58% (+19)
      Biden 39%
      #ALsen:
      Tuberville (R) 54% (+11)
      Jones (D-inc) 43%
      @aumontgomery
      , LV, 10/23-28

    5. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      3. Your second, like Biden may be on Tuesday.

    6. Scooterboy says:

      New @trafalgar_group #2020Election #BattlegroundState #NVpoll conducted 10/28-29 &released exclusively tonight on @IngrahamAngle shows shrinking Biden lead:  
      49.4% @JoeBiden,
      47.1% @realDonaldTrump,
      1.7% @Jorgensen4POTUS,
      0.9% Other,
      0.9% Und. See Report: thetrafalgargroup

    7. Scooterboy says:

      New @trafalgar_group
      #2020Election #BattlegroundState #FLpoll conducted 10/25-28 &released exclusively tonight on @IngrahamAngle shows growing Trump lead:
      49.6% @realDonaldTrump,
      46.9% @JoeBiden,
      1.5% @Jorgensen4POTUS,
      1.4% Other,
      0.7% Und. See Report: thetrafalgargroup

    8. JC says:

      I’ve been periodically checking up on NC early voting numbers. Republicans have made significant gains in the last few days.

      Two days ago the numbers were:
      Dem: 1,281,300 (40.40%)
      GOP: 952,136 (30.02%)
      Diff: D+ 357,057

      As of now:
      Dem: 1,493,831 (38.62%)
      GOP: 1,208,633 (31.24%)
      Diff: D+ 285,198

      Source: https://www.carolinaelections.com/votetracker/

      In two days reps cut the lead down by 71k votes and closed the gap by 3 points. Does anyone know the NC final early vote numbers?

    9. Big Joe says:

      “There you go everyone who thinks I am too anti-Trump, a post with two great polls for Donald Trump….”

      Dave, you are a TRUE LEGEND. Thank you for all you do.

      BJ

    10. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      Thank you Dave for pointing out why these polls should be dismissed as the garbage they are.

    11. JC says:

      “Does anyone know the NC final early vote numbers”

      *in 2016

    12. Bitterlaw says:

      I trust Wes on N.C.
      I trust mnw on Missouri.
      I trust Jason on llamas. Ummm. That just sounds wrong.

    13. Bitterlaw says:

      Don’t worry about the haters, Dave. You have posted the polls that come out since 2004.

    14. Big Joe says:

      I wondered why folks would complain about the polls that Dave chose to post.

      Dave’s threads typically get hijacked from the very first post anyway. 😀 Go Yankees

      BJ

    15. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      There is no such thing as “too anti-Trump”

      Everyone should be opposed to his fascism.

    16. MichiganGuy says:

      #13 Bitter doesn’t trust me. sniff sniff

    17. eriepa says:

      Jeez Gator the later into the night , the lamer your posts get . Almost not worth responding too.

    18. MichiganGuy says:

      * Breaking News * Biden just lost another rapper.
      .
      Lil Wayne WEEZY F
      @LilTunechi
      ·
      Just had a great meeting with
      @realdonaldtrump

      @potus
      besides what he’s done so far with criminal reform, the platinum plan is going to give the community real ownership. He listened to what we had to say today and assured he will and can get it done.

    19. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      What are you all going to do with your Rump flags after he loses next week?

    20. Bitterlaw says:

      I trust Michigan Guy be even more pro-Trump than Tina.

      Happy? GFY.

      Stay well.

    21. eriepa says:

      Combine all 100,000 of them and make a dress for Stacy Abrams?

    22. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      Our respected and appreciated webmaster was pretty glum on Trump’s changes in late October 2016 too. With full support of all of us NEVERTRUMPERs at the time:

      October 18, 2016
      “We have basically reached the same point in this year’s Presidential election as the 1996 Clinton/Dole race where just about everyone knows it is over, even those that will vote for Trump out of some party loyalty. At least in 1996, I was proud to vote for Bob Dole even though I knew he was a loser. This time around, I will be trying to figure out who to write in just so I can say I voted for someone. You see a group of polls for battleground states like this latest one from The Washington Post and Survey Monkey and it is clear Donald Trump will not even come close to winning 270 electoral votes. This new poll even shows Arizona and Texas as toss ups! Yes, Texas!”

      I’ve about checked out and basically will be coasting until Election Day, maybe focus on whether Republicans can hold the US Senate, and dare I say, the US House.

      Us sane Republicans will have to regroup and focus on 2018 when, hopefully, the embarrassment of having Donald Trump as the face of the party will disappear.

      October 25, 2016
      “Nothing is really changing, but this morning we reach a point where the last three holdouts showing Donald Trump with a lead have now switched to show Hillary Clinton with a lead over Trump. Rasmussen Reports, IBD/TIPP and The Los Angeles Times.”

      October 30. 2016
      “This edition of the poll was done October 25-28 among likely voters. Instead of putting any doubt into their original tracking poll release, The Washington Post would like you to believe that Donald Trump has surged 11% in a single week even before the latest revelations came out on Friday.”

    23. Bitterlaw says:

      Whether Trump wins or loses, I will be at work the next day. What about you, Gator? Your trolling checks will stop.

    24. Big Joe says:

      #12, JC-

      I’ve been trying to project NC. Found this from Nov 7, 2016 that may be helpful:
      https://www.cnn.com/2016/11/07/politics/north-carolina-early-voting-2016/index.html

      BJ

    25. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      Supreme Court Justice Stacy Abrams

    26. eriepa says:

      I think you mean the Supreme Buffet

    27. Bitterlaw says:

      It was embarrassing to have Trump as the Republican nominee in 2016. I am glad Hillary lost to him. Both can be true.

    28. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      Better to be a fat a$$ than a dumb a$$

    29. NYCmike says:

      “Supreme Court Justice Stacy Abrams”

      -Ok, this parody person may pass “Baris” as the funniest!!

    30. NYCmike says:

      Stacey Abrams!

      The fascination for these losers is mind-boggling!

    31. eriepa says:

      So you wish you were the bumb a$$ then?

    32. phoenixrisen says:

      #26 ROFL!!!!

    33. NYCmike says:

      #33 – SEE!

    34. GatorBJ says:

      WE JUST LOST AZ!!!!

    35. Stacey Abrams says:

      I was going to run for the House, but my ass was already assigned its own congressman.

    36. MichiganGuy says:

      “I trust Michigan Guy be even more pro-Trump than Tina.”
      .
      Bitter show me the proof to back that up. Oh you can’t. What a surprise. I have not said one bad thing about Dr. Fauci even when he disagrees with Trump. I haven’t criticized any Republican that has attacked Trump such as Senators Romney and Sasse. Yet, you continue to lie about me and act like I ‘worship’ Trump. And then he has the nerve to ask me why I hate him. Even though, he continues to lie about me I still don’t hate you. I feel nothing but pity for you and the sad life you live every day being bitter.

    37. Greymarch says:

      Does Wissing honestly think he is satiating his readers by posting two positive Trump polls, while crapping all over those polls with snide commentary?

      If Wissing is going to pull garbage moves like this, I’d prefer he just stick with his anti-Trump polls. Then I can ditch the front page without even bothering to read it, and get straight to where we truly learn what is going on this election…the messageboards.

    38. PresidentPaul! says:

      https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/1322016129271930880?s=21

      Amazing how i knew Greenwald, the most left wing reporter on the planet , was more or less on our side even in 2003 when i was posting his links here nonstop to the dismay of the GWB supporters.

      Prescient no?

    39. JC says:

      @25 BigJoe

      So Clinton had about a 300,000 vote lead. Thanks BJ.

      NC is looking good for Trump then.

    40. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      Poll deniers. Science deniers. As soon to be President Biden said so well…

      I believe in science.

      Donald Trump doesn’t.

      It’s that simple, folks.

    41. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      By the way, if where your at has no clouds, go outside and take a look at the sky. There is a full moon and nearby is a very big and bright Mars. Saturn and Jupiter are to the west. Mars will not be this close to the earth again for another 35 years.

      Then think about the fact we have mechancial rovers on both the Moon (“moon buggies”) and on Mars. And our spacecraft have orbited Jupiter and Saturn. Its has only been a little over a century since the Wright Brothers December 17, 1903 flight.

    42. Bitterlaw says:

      I pray for death every day. Unfortunately, it has only proven that prayer does not work for me.

      Sure, MG. You are such an objective observer of Trump.

    43. eriepa says:

      Science-Men can have babies and periods, and Gator can identify as a male, female or troll- science

    44. PresidentPaul! says:

      https://twitter.com/redpillmac/status/1321828387309191168?s=21

      “ “Comey, Clapper, Brennan, Haspel and Wray all get a go.”

      “Do it now don’t wait till election day.”

      “Do a clean sweep.””

    45. Big Joe says:

      NC 2016
      Early vote: 3.10M (Dem +310K)
      Total vote: 4.74M (Trump +173K)

      NC 2020
      Early vote (as of 10/30): 3.86M (Dem +285K)
      total vote: ??

      https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/NC.html

      BJ

    46. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      The average temperature on Mars is around -81 degrees Fahrenheit

    47. PresidentPaul! says:

      Deepstate will need a new scam.

    48. Bitterlaw says:

      I believe in science. Too bad it is not always right. Remember when we were told by SCIENTISTS to shut everything down to stop the spread of the virus. Then it was a month…2 months…..?

    49. Stacey Abrams says:

      I don’t believe in polls – especially that one where I lost.

      But I do believe in all-you-can-eat Mac n’Cheese Mondays at the Golden Corral

    50. Bitterlaw says:

      I wonder where Deepstate holds its meetings. The grassy knoll? Area 51? Atlantis?

    51. mnw says:

      BL

      For your family. Hang in there.

    52. PresidentPaul! says:

      https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/chinas-central-bank-poised-legalize-digital-yuan-part-sovereign-fiat-currency

      China to officially implement the first sovereign digital currency.

      Digital yuan

    53. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      Bitter – I will be praying FOR you.

    54. MichiganGuy says:

      “Sure, MG. You are such an objective observer of Trump.”
      .
      Bitter I’m much more objective than you. You have admitted your hatred for Trump again and again. I have no hatred for Biden or anyone else. So, tell me again who is more objective?

    55. PresidentPaul! says:

      79% of white evangelical likely voters are supporting Trump — which is 9 percentage points higher than his support among this group at a comparable point in the 2016 election cycle, according to PRRI’s American Values Survey from September

      https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight/status/1321953712122654720?s=21

    56. JC says:

      Bitterlaw says:

      It was embarrassing to have Trump as the Republican nominee in 2016. I am glad Hillary lost to him. Both can be true.
      ————-

      BL, as usual, you are about as fun and exciting as a damp rag. 2016 was a great year! There was so much excitement and drama, it was like a rollorcoster ride. Every day brought something new and fun to talk about. It was the greatest political season ever!

      And for the first time in my life, it felt like our side was finally fighting back against the leftist institutions and their media machines. We were no longer the side of serious, boring losers who were expected to keep decorum while the left walked right over us. We fought back, bloody nose for bloody nose.

      And we won.

    57. Annie says:

      41. Gatorbillyjoel … I am a woman in a science field at a major university. Tell me, how many genders do you think there are?

    58. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      Annie – finally give up on the PhilS handle?

    59. Big Joe says:

      #40, JC-

      It’s tricky this year. I posted something similar earlier today. Wes and Chicon chimed in.

      The tricky part is projecting the overall vote. In 2016 it was 4.74M. What will it be this year?

      Also, in 2016, 65% of the vote was early-vote. That allowed Trump to make up a 300,000 vote deficit on election day as there were still 35% not voted. However, with VBM, it’s possible that 80-85% will be early, maybe even more. That leaves less votes available on Nov 3 to make up a deficit.

      BJ

    60. Bitterlaw says:

      JC – I guess you were not around when Reagan, Bush I and GWB won without being circus clowns. I do not understand this need to praise Trump in order to be glad he won and hope he wins again.

    61. wheelz91 says:

      Re post 23:
      Well Dave was right in 2016… he said no way
      would Trump come close to winning 270 electoral
      votes… but 306 seemed pretty good!!!!

    62. Annie says:

      60. Waiting for your answer…
      Also, sorry, but you’re way off-base if you think I’m PhilS…

    63. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      43. Bitter, perhaps its time for that visit to your family in Coronado you have talked about. Its one of the most beautiful cities in the U.S. You can go to the beach, drink margaritas. Big military town too; the SEALS train there. Very conservative and Republican. You need to enjoy a fabulous vacation. Why not do it? — sounds like you need a new adventure.

    64. bartman says:

      Re: #20
      Battle flags mastergator.

    65. Cash Cow TM says:

      In Dave Wissing’s explanation of the polls in the LAST thread did you all catch this?

      “The PPP poll was done October 27-28 among 661 registered voters. The Monmouth Poll was done October 23-27 among 504 voters.”
      ***************************************
      PPP still doing polls of RVs?
      This close to election?
      I thought all the pollsters switch to LV screen after labor day.

      *****************************************
      And the Monmouth poll…504 VOTERS?
      Make the REGISTERED VOTERS.

      Also the Monmouth poll posted in the last thread says:

      “Despite Biden’s consistent lead in the national polls, though, Georgia voters are more likely to expect Trump (51%) will win a second term. Just 42% believe the challenger will emerge victorious.”

    66. PresidentPaul! says:

      Kanye is getting 3-4% in minnesota lol.

    67. Bitterlaw says:

      I would have loved to see Reagan against Trump for President. Reagan would have destroyed him with a smile and razor sharp wit. It could have happened since Trump was a Democrat then.

    68. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      There won’t be enough votes left in NC for Rump to overcome Biden. Better to come to terms with it now.

    69. Annie says:

      62. But, Bitter, remember how Reagan was called a “dumb actor” from the “Bonzo” movies? How GWB was called a “stupid cowboy”? With GHWB, they said he was an “elitist, born with a silver spoon.” Republicans, no matter how shining their resumes, are always have to put up with derogatory remarks from the left…whose own candidates included a peanut farmer, a bubba, and a mumbler without his teleprompter. Regardless of personalities, you really need to judge based on accomplishments. Which makes me wonder why people would support Biden, who has no real accomplishments in a half-century…other than running an influence-peddling and money laundering racket with his family.

    70. Bitterlaw says:

      SDC – I will never see the West Coast. If I have to be on a plane that long, I will head east and go to London.

      I am incapable of relaxing. A few years ago, I went to Rome. My company told me I was the first person out of thousands of employees who ever asked to have my work e-mails and calls forwarded to me while on vacation in another country. I talked to clients from the Coliseum. The sad thing is that I am a workaholic AND not wealthy. That is difficult to pull off.

      I would be ashamed to be surrounded by military personnel. I was rejected from service 5 times because of diabetes. I am not worthy to be in their presence.

    71. Annie says:

      71. …having to put up with derogatory remarks…

    72. NYCmike says:

      “JC – I guess you were not around when Reagan, Bush I and GWB won without being circus clowns. I do not understand this need to praise Trump in order to be glad he won and hope he wins again.”

      -Different time.

      Also, considering what Trump has done while in office, he could be considered the most conservative out of all 4 names……

    73. GatorBJ says:

      Gatorbillyjoel says:
      October 30, 2020 at 12:06 am
      There won’t be enough votes left in NC for Rump to overcome Biden. Better to come to terms with it now.
      ————————————-

      You and I both know that it’s gone. Let’s work on saving Rhode Island.

    74. Annie says:

      69. Bitter…In a way, Reagan influenced Trump’s political philosophies, although Trump always was for “deals” that favored America first. Have you listened to Trump interviews from the 1980s and 1990s on political subjects? There are several photos of Trump and Reagan shaking hands…

    75. mnw says:

      Let’s see… who to believe about the NC early vote… Wes, or GBJ?

      It’s tough, but I’ll take Door #1!

      Posts like 70 are SOOO bone ignorant, they are actually reassuring.

      I was also reassured when pedotroll said Baris had given up on MI… and then found out the opposite was true. Pedo just lied.

    76. Bitterlaw says:

      Annie- I also remember that they won without being a-holes.

      In defense of Carter (who was the worst President of my lifetime and probably ranks in the bottom 10 of Presidents), he was a graduate of the Naval Academy and served on nuclear submarines.

    77. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      72. I once heard an estimate that about 25% of attorneys were alcoholic. Know some old line law firms in California that used to insist their attorneys went on sebbatical for many months every five years. It sounds like you maybe in a rut and burned out. It may be adventure time.

    78. NYCmike says:

      Wissing wrote: “Us sane Republicans will have to regroup and focus on 2018 when, hopefully, the embarrassment of having Donald Trump as the face of the party will disappear.”

      -I am confused…..is Wissing plagiarizing “CG”, or vice-versa?

      What a sanctimonious prig remark that was! And 4 years later the derangement has gotten worse!

      I should congratulate Robbie for staying somewhat even-keeled compared to them. I guess his pilot training did him some good!

    79. chris says:

      Reagan was also a democrat at one point

    80. mnw says:

      25% alcoholics? The deuce you say! (shifty look)

    81. JC says:

      Bitterlaw says:

      JC – I guess you were not around when Reagan, Bush I and GWB won without being circus clowns. I do not understand this need to praise Trump in order to be glad he won and hope he wins again.

      ———-

      Nope. I was in elementary when GWB got elected. And as I grew in those years all I learned from bush was how to not defend yourself or stand up against your bullies.

      I do not consider getting elected ‘winning’. Bush did nothing to push back the liberal tide. Instead, he aloud the left to completely own the culture and narrative for a decade, and it resulted in a radical leftist president with a supermajority congress.

      I know Bush is your kind of republican, but those types cannot form a winning coalition. There only core belief is trying to hold power… And hence they compromise on conservative positions and ‘gravitate’ to the ‘center’ because they think it will get them more votes. It doesn’t. People instinctually know when a person doesn’t stand for anything but his own gain, and they don’t put their trust in them.

    82. Bitterlaw says:

      If Reagan was such an influence on Trump, why did Trump say that Bill Clinton was the greatest President in his lifetime?

    83. mnw says:

      84 BL

      That statement is inoperative.

    84. Bitterlaw says:

      Reagan was my kind of Republican. Upbeat while fighting back. The others were automatically better than the Democrats they ran against because no Democrat should ever be elected over a Republican.

    85. Annie says:

      78. Bitter…Agreed. They all had accomplishments, as did Trump, before becoming president. Biden just doesn’t have many accomplishments that point toward his ability to manage the USA economy, our military, and our foreign policies. In fact, Biden is an incredibly corrupt politician, a national security risk. The names being tossed around for a possible Biden cabinet sound horrendous.

    86. Annie says:

      78. Bitter…I am old enough to remember Carter very well. The first president I voted for was Ford. The second was Reagan in 1980.

    87. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      77 – HMMM, where did you find something “disproving me” on Michigan and Baris? Did you listen to his “show” which I think he streams from him mom’s basement.

    88. mnw says:

      89 GJB

      Are u up for that bet I offered you on Trump’s margin of victory in MO yet?

      After all, you mentioned a poll that showed “Biden only down 1-2 in MO!”

    89. Annie says:

      84. I think that Trump got to know Clinton during his “Democrat phase.” He gave donation money to both Republicans and Democrats while being in business in NYC. It was no doubt good business to have the Clintons come to his wedding. Clinton’s political philosophies had little to do with any praise. In fact, Trump often was very critical of Clinton’s policies in regard to China.

    90. PresidentPaul! says:

      https://twitter.com/kamvtv/status/1321935171583680517?s=21

      One week until the election and Latinos for Trump page on facebook has been unpublished.

    91. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      77. Troll posts are propaganda talking points, and can be ignored. Its likely they are distributed daily. Its a new form of internet campaigning; a Daily Beast article was entitled: “How Every Campaign Will Have a Troll Farm of Its Own.” Trolling on internet sites is becoming a regular campaign strategy used by all sides.

    92. Annie says:

      81. Chris…True. Supposedly Nancy’s father was a Republican, who convinced him to change his political thinking in the 1950s. Have you ever heard any of Reagan’s speeches from the early 1960s, including the 1964 convention speech? The warning about socialized medicine? If not, I highly recommend giving them a listen…they’re on YouTube.

    93. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      LOL Rump going BACK to Georgia and Iowa?! And you all think Georgia is safe? LOL

    94. NYCmike says:

      “If Reagan was such an influence on Trump, why did Trump say that Bill Clinton was the greatest President in his lifetime?”

      -As Anne Coulter pointed out many times, those who don’t like, or understand, Trump take him literally, but not seriously, while those who like him take him seriously, but not literally.

      He is a salesman, who never said anything bad about someone UNLESS that person attacked him first!

    95. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      86. In our age of social media, Reagan would have been eaten alive by social media. We are now in a much more crude and vicious world. You have to get in the trenches and fight like Trump. Romney was brutally attacked, and really did not respond effectively.

    96. Annie says:

      95. Gator…I am still waiting for you to tell me how many genders you think there are…Don’t worry, your silence on the matter is the answer. Perhaps you should also listen to Reagan’s speeches from the 1960s, show some intellectual curiosity.

    97. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      96. Keep in mind that Reagan was once a Democratic and used to quote FDR.

    98. PresidentPaul! says:

      95

      The race will be decided In the senate races not the presidential race. Biden just went to iowa and georgia in past couple days.

      If biden wins presidency w a conservative senate then his presidency is basically over since well give him the nancy pelosi treatment.

    99. Bitterlaw says:

      Reagan was also a Democrat……Zzzzzzzzzz. He was a Democrat when there were actually moderates and conservatives in the party. Go listen to his 1964 convention speech for Goldwater. He was a 2 term Republican Governor of California. He spoke out for conservative ideals for decades. In 2008, Trump said Hillary would be a great President.

    100. Annie says:

      99. There are many examples of Democrats who became Republicans, but not so many who go the other direction. My dad was raised Democrat, having a father who was a bricklayer union member. Although the family was Democrat, they were always conservative. Not unlike the Reagan Democrats or the Trump Democrats today. Like Reagan, my dad became a Republican when his father-in-law schooled him in conservatism in the 1950s. The lesson took, and my dad knew Eisenhower, Nixon, and Reagan personally.

    101. Bitterlaw says:

      It amazes me that alleged conservatives have to trash Reagan to keep Trump on a pedestal above him. Reagan transitioned from radio to movies to television. He would have easily dominated social media.

    102. Annie says:

      102. Bitter…It’s called the art of the shmooze. He probably figured it was good for business to stay friendly at that time.

    103. Bitterlaw says:

      NYC still giving out the Trump was a businessman in New York free pass to Trump.

    104. mnw says:

      93 SDC

      Sheeple linked to Baris’ broadcast from today, in post 331 on the previous thread. Baris is bullish on Trump’s chances in MI.

      Baris: Inside the Numbers: No Wonder Biden Needs Obama Back in MI.

      GBJ posts stuff that he just makes up to of thin air, & Steeple caught him in a whopper.

    105. Annie says:

      104. Bitter…Trump and Reagan are apples and oranges. They were/are different in many ways, and yet, also have certain traits and philosophies in common. No doubt, few politicians today could come close to Reagan in his heyday.

    106. Annie says:

      Time to practice the art of the snooze for me…Goodnight, Bitter and all –

    107. lisab says:

      I pray for death every day. Unfortunately, it has only proven that prayer does not work for me.
      —————-

      and this is why we call him mr sunshine!

    108. lisab says:

      No doubt, few politicians today could come close to Reagan in his heyday.
      ———————

      ummmmmmmm … reagan lost to ford

      gerald ford

    109. NYCmike says:

      “NYC still giving out the Trump was a businessman in New York free pass to Trump.”

      -More like looking at the last 4 years and realizing how correct I was about him.

      Don’t worry about thanking me, I know you will vote for him again.

      Good enough for me!

    110. PresidentPaul! says:

      I knew the indian wanted some sort reward for taking bernie out.

      https://twitter.com/fxhedgers/status/1322038641669988352?s=21

      ELIZABETH WARREN WANTS TO BE BIDEN’S TREASURY SECRETARY – POLITICO

    111. lisab says:

      The day after the United Nations voted to recognize the People’s Republic of China, then–California Governor Ronald Reagan phoned President Richard Nixon at the White House and vented his frustration at the delegates who had sided against the United States. “Last night, I tell you, to watch that thing on television as I did,” Reagan said. “Yeah,” Nixon interjected. Reagan forged ahead with his complaint: “To see those, those monkeys from those African countries—damn them, they’re still uncomfortable wearing shoes!”

    112. mnw says:

      111 lisab

      To be fair, Ford was an incumbent President, & RR was trying to beat him in the primaries. Tough row to hoe, that. RR made a very respectable run in 1976, too.

      I read that after Reagan got elected, he liked to inquire about prospective appointments, “Was he with us in ’76? In ’68?”

    113. PresidentPaul! says:

      That was probably one of trump’s mistakes. He put never trumpers like Bolton and that energy ceo in power so they could troll.

    114. lisab says:

      RR made a very respectable run in 1976, too.
      ———————

      76 was against ford

    115. PresidentPaul! says:

      Fat bastard chris christie wanted to be in on the early admin but he got blacklisted bc he prosecuted Kusher’s father (his father set up his uncle w a prostitute and then video taped it as a set usually believe)

    116. mnw says:

      Breitbart News Network reports that Trump’s rally in MN on Friday will be limited to 250 people, thanks to Keith Ellison.

    117. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      You should be thankful that a super spreader event isn’t coming to your state.

    118. mnw says:

      lisab

      I know that. RR won a bunch of primaries & came pretty close in ’76.

      GOP convention was in Kansas City that year.

    119. PresidentPaul! says:

      Id prefer trump focus on the senate seats equally: nc, georgia, iowa in particular just as biden is.

      Collins can do her own thing and mcsally seems like a goner(?)

    120. John says:

      Trump’s schedule the next couple of days include….Michigan on three days (Fri, Sun and Mon), Pennsylvania three times on Sat and once on Monday, and Florida Sunday and Monday.
      There it is folks – Trump’s pathway to reelection….Michigan, Pennsylvania and Florida

    121. John says:

      124 follow up….
      Michigan, Pennsylvania and Florida are also the three big swing states that the Traflagar Group has Trump ahead and contradicting most of the other state polls that have been released.
      Hmmmmm…….

    122. PresidentPaul! says:

      Jeez.
      He needs at least one stop in wisconsin.

      That’s a state that would get him to 269-269

    123. mnw says:

      John

      Makes sense.

    124. lisab says:

      I know that. RR won a bunch of primaries & came pretty close in ’76.
      ————————–

      and lost

      to gerald ford

    125. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      Rump’s remaining schedule

      Tomorrow: MI/WI/MN

      Saturday: PA – 3 stood

      Sunday: NC/MI/GA/FL

      Monday: PA/FL/MI

      Two stops in FL? I thought you all said it was over there? NC, GA? Not exactly sounding like a confident campaign. Desperation setting in for rump kissers.

    126. lisab says:

      gerald ford was so boring

      hoover only had one piece of blackmail on him

    127. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      Nevada Poll:
      Biden 49% (+2)
      Trump 47%
      Jorgensen 2%
      @trafalgar_group
      LV, 10/28-29

      Florida Poll:
      Trump 50% (+3)
      Biden 47%
      Jorgensen 2%
      @trafalgar_group
      LV, 10/25-28

    128. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      @Rasmussen_Poll
      “Fran Coombs, managing editor of Rasmussen Reports, sees the numbers this year as very similar to the 2016 presidential election, when Hillary Clinton and Trump were neck-and-neck to the end.”

      @Rasmussen_Poll
      A new Rasmussen Reports telephone and online survey of Likely Voters in Arizona shows Trump leading Biden 48% to 45%. Little over a week ago, the Democrat had a 48% to 46% advantage. 2% prefer some other candidate, while four percent (4%) are undecided…

      @Rasmussen_Poll
      “He also cited a “curious poll”: a recent Rasmussen presidential tracker, w/ Trump leading 48% to 47%. While it may be an outlier, (RR) was the only pollster listed by RCP that was exactly right on 2016’s presidential popular vote”
      @BloombergQuint

    129. michael corleone says:

      I think the NV and FL Traflagar polls are fake polls. Not on their twitter feed.

    130. michael corleone says:

      Ahh I see those polls now. They look real.

    131. jaichind says:

      https://6abc.com/atm-explosions-reported-across-philadelphia/7420875/

      “7 more ATM explosions across Philadelphia under investigation”

      MSM: “aspiring youth scientists investigates and collects artifacts from spontaneous exploding ATMs”

    132. PresidentPaul! says:

      GOOD MORNING COMRADES!

      Have to get used to this in case demented joe wins.

    133. Smack says:

      Dade, Sarasota and Polk county never posted their respective early votes for Thursday, October 29th.

      Very odd.

    134. JeffS says:

      I was a sophomore in 1972. Got in trouble in Greek Mythology class for passing around the following note: DON’T CHANGE DICKS IN THE MIDDLE OF A SCREW, VOTE FOR NIXON IN ’72.

    135. PresidentPaul! says:

      The perfect ending of this campaign would be Kanye to pull 4% in Minnesota giving it to Trump, and Trump to that Maine electoral vote putting him at 270.

      And then the socialists can blame the election on Kanye West.

    136. PresidentPaul! says:

      https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/16/supreme-court-will-hear-trump-appeal-to-exclude-undocumented-immigrants-from-census-count.html

      Supreme Court will hear Trump appeal to exclude undocumented immigrants from census count

    137. PresidentPaul! says:

      https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/16/supreme-court-will-hear-trump-appeal-to-exclude-undocumented-immigrants-from-census-count.html

      Supreme Court will hear Trump appeal to exclude undocumented immigrants from census count

    138. PresidentPaul! says:

      Glenn Greenwald resigns… states “The editors, in violation of my contractual right of editorial freedom, censored an article I wrote this week, refusing to publish it unless I remove all sections critical of Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden..”

    139. jaichind says:

      https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/picture-1_1.png

      Ipsos survey of how the world might vote in 2016 and 2020.

      Note Trumps gains the most in Latin American countries relative to 2016

      Mexico: ~0% -> 7%
      Chile: 6% -> 18%
      Peru: 10% -> 15%
      Argentina: 6% -> 20%
      Brazil: 12% -> 20%

      Gives a clue how first generation Hispanic voters might be swing relative to 2016.

    140. RuRu says:

      Just for grins:

      Biden’s most flippable surprise state: GA (16 EV)

      Trump’s most flippable surprise states: NV & MN (16 EV)

      Life is full of surprises!?!

    141. Smack says:

      All Early Voting – Florida

      ———

      Oct 30th / 6:30am

      DEM: 3,108,895 40.07%

      GOP: 2,945,977 37.97%

      Final 2016 FL All Early Voting
      DEM: 39.80%
      GOP: 38.34%

    142. John says:

      Just released via Cotto/Gottfied….
      Targetsmart (a Democrat focused group) has updates on both Georgia and Wisconsin
      Georgia: combined in person EV and VBM returns has the GOP leading 43-35% (8 points ahead)
      Wisconsin: combined in person EV and VBM returns has the GOP leading 51-42% (9 points ahead).
      WOW!

    143. John says:

      Nevada update….the GOP sliced another 2,500 of the Dems’ lead. D’s lead is just 45,000 with a couple more days left and the GOP is coming on strong.
      By comparison, the Dems had a 80,000 lead in 2016 only to win by 27,000 – the GOP outvoted the D’s on ED by 53,000.

    144. OHIO Joe says:

      “I believe in science.” coming from you, that is the funniest thing I have heard today.

    145. John says:

      Ras update….Black approval shot back up overnight for Trump…41%

    146. Sheeple,Jr. says:

      From a Liberal political analyst in FL:

      “Partisan turnout among Florida’s Hispanic voters is showing a 6.9% GOP advantage. While Democrats still lead in Hispanic votes cast, their margin isn’t as big as it is with registration.

      Biggest issue: Miami-Dade’s 9.4% GOP turnout advantage. Cuban turnout is strong #flapol”

    147. JeffS says:

      @150- Is the Dirty Harry Machine capable of creating 100,000+ votes out of thin air? Probably not without being obvious.

    148. michael corleone says:

      #150 – John your numbers are off. 2016 statewide lead was 46k. Current statewide lead before mail processed is around 40k. Washoe and rurals still to report. The 80k refers to the Clark advantage.

    149. Sean says:

      John – and Trump’s vote share among black Americans is up to around 30%. Makes me wonder if this is where part of the shy Trump vote is.

    150. Wes says:

      Democrats are down to a 269,974-vote lead in NC. Things are looking better for the NCGOP with two days of early voting left.

    151. Thomas A says:

      Apparently you have no problem posting omg results from pollsters who have a seriously flawed polling method in favor of Republicans and have been called out for this time and time again. They are
      Susquehanna
      Trafalgar
      Rasmussen
      InsiderAdvantage

      So keep on posting their heap of crap and we will be sure to circle back to them on Election Day and asked them for their accuracy for 2020. Perhaps that info will make you no longer include them in your averages

    152. hugh says:

      And as of 6:03 in FL we are off to the races. we are already up 4708!!! FL is so far gone. stick a fork in it.

    153. michael corleone says:

      John looks like my statewide numbers were also off as SOS updated yesterday evening. Statewide advantage around 42.5k for the Ds once you factor in Clark’s vote yesterday. Washoe and rurals still to report.

    154. Sy says:

      159 – I don’t see the change you are seeing.

    155. Country Dick Montana says:

      And Thomas drives by…

      Lot’s of scrolling this morning to get by last night’s garbage. Like Bitter said, not matter who wins I will go to work on Wednesday morning (until 12 noon on 1/20/2021 if Biden wins, then I retire…comfortably, thank you.) The trolls will still have miserable lives.

      It reminds me of Red Sox fans when they finally won the WS. “What are you going to whine about now?”

    156. Scooterboy says:

      Trafalgar pollster talking about Michael Moore- “ This guy knows average people better than AMLOST every pollster out there. We at @trafalgar_group see the undercounted “hidden Trump vote” the way Michael Moore does.”

    157. DW says:

      Ha…Thomas beclowns himself. Trafalgar was spot on in 2016 and 2018, while the media and university polls were way off.

    158. Thomas A says:

      I have lived and worked in Florida for over 28 years
      I have never seen so much Democratic energy around a Presidential election before. Especially the younger kids 18-25 and so many seniors that can no longer vote Republican due to Trump. Lastly, in legitimate poll after poll, Independents are breaking for Biden by 15 points or more

      So HUGH
      you are right, Florida is done. And it’s a really lovely shade of blue. Sorry. I only tell the truth.

    159. Gatorjoel says:

      Wes-except far more of the NC electorate will have voted before Election Day. Not enough votes then to make up difference!!! NC just like the Devils and the Heels will be blue!!

    160. PresidentPaul! says:

      https://twitter.com/The_Real_Fly/status/1321865900216197121?s=20

      REALLY NICE ACCOUNT GROWTH FOR THE HUNTER 2014

    161. Smack says:

      If Thomas’s post on #165 was correct about seeing so much “Democratic energy” we would be seeing this energy displayed in Florida among the “All Early Voting” voters in Florida with party registration percentages vs 2016 cycle and we are just not seeing this energy.

    162. Pitchaboy says:

      Who is this Doubtful Thomas?

    163. Smack says:

      Gatorjoel,

      That’s why it’s important to look at percentage of party registration of DEM’s vs GOP in 2020 cycle vs 2016 cycle in NC among all Early voters.

      2020 DEM underperforming 2016 DEM’s in NC.

    164. Gordon Allen says:

      A new troll appears Thomas A( or a renamed one??). His work has deteriorated ( late nights) Heh Thomas A. If you live in Florida ( doubtful) as I do,can we make arrangements to put real money where our mouths are and wager on the Florida results? You pick the number.

    165. PresidentPaul! says:

      Gonna watch some hedgeye at 8 am and people’s pundit wisconsin release at 9 am

    166. MrVito says:

      Well, you know Thomas is a liar. Any of us who have lived here that long saw the 2008 election.

    167. Country Dick Montana says:

      Notice that the trolls almost always show up in pairs? Not very good from a tactical stand point.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gvh3l8K7PX0&ab_channel=StarWarsExplained

    168. PresidentPaul! says:

      Our media will spin a disaster scenario over the coming days. They want to crush your morale & make you believe your rightful vote doesn’t count. While we have wild enthusiasm on the side of light, we hear crickets from the dark-side. Your vote matters, so vote. 1 Timothy 6:12

      Fylnn

      2 min ago twtr

    169. PresidentPaul! says:

      Donald Trump Jr. Retweeted

      Jorge Masvidal UFC
      @GamebredFighter

      ·
      39m
      Good morning. It’s Friday and that means it’s pay day! I hope you all take a hard look at those checks. If you don’t want them to get smaller, go vote for
      @realDonaldTrump
      it’s #supernecessary

    170. Wes says:

      Gatorjoel, I actually addressed this yesterday. NC has about 1 million more votes than in 2016. About 1 million more Tarheels will have voted in early voting by 3 tomorrow afternoon. Republicans are also on track to have a larger proportion of their registered voters left to deploy on Election Day than Dems will have.

      These are simple numbers and stats readily found on the NCSBE website.

    171. Stonewall DW says:

      Here is the truth, not Dem talking point fantasies:

      2016 – PENNSYLVANIA

      Trafalgar Group

      Trump 48
      Hillary 47
      Johnson 2
      Stein 1

      Oh, and that just happened to be the ACTUAL results too.

      Unlike these whoppers:

      Franklin & Marshall College

      Hillary 49
      Trump 38
      Johnson 4
      Stein 2

      YouGov

      Hillary 48
      Trump 40
      Johnson 5
      Stein 2

      And others…

      Siena College/NY Times and IPSOS – Hillary +7
      Gravis – Hillary +6
      Quinnipiac – Hillary +5
      Muhlenberg, Monmouth, and CNN – Hillary +4

    172. PresidentPaul! says:

      https://twitter.com/gtconway3d/status/1322009627375140865?s=20

      Collins major distancing from WH including the vote against Barrett

      She’s pulling out all the stop.

    173. Smack says:

      All Early Voting – North Carolina

      ———

      Oct 30th

      DEM: 1,556,467 38.11%
      GOP: 1,286,502 31.50%

      Final 2016 NC All Early Voting Results:

      DEM: 41.18%
      GOP: 31.80%

      Where is all this Dem voter energy?

      I don’t see it…it’s not in the numbers.

    174. Wes says:

      There are about 7.5 million registered voters in NC. By the end of tomorrow, there will be about 4.4 million votes cast. On the current trajectory, Dems will have fewer voters than Republicans will left on Election Day.

      Given the fact that Dems have pushed heavily for early voting while Republicans have pushed more for Election Day voting, whatever segment of our 3 million outstanding voters shows up on Election Day is likely to skew strongly GOP, just as in every recent election including 2008.

    175. MrVito says:

      Looks like GOP will net about 1500 from Polk, Sarasota, and Dade yesterday… mostly from Sarasota.

    176. hugh says:

      ANother sign of Rep energy in the closing EV last three days results and total. Yesterday was outstanding.

      13706 14685 30630 59021

      The dems have trolls and polls. We have votes and energy.

    177. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      Sad!

    178. PresidentPaul! says:

      Where’s MFG? Pretty sure his quarterback was supporting antifa

      Brett Favre
      @BrettFavre
      · 30m
      My Vote is for what makes this country great, freedom of speech & religion, 2nd Amnd, hard working tax paying citizens, police & military. In this election, we have freedom of choice, which all should respect. For me & these principles, my Vote is for @RealDonaldTrump. #Vote

    179. hugh says:

      I am still not seeing any polk numbers.

    180. MrVito says:

      187 The state has uploaded all the current numbers.

    181. Todd McCain says:

      Nevada would be great to have but it is not a state Trump should be banking on. DEMS will get the votes they need with the three extra days of VBM. IPEV ends today.

    182. Smack says:

      All Early Voting – Florida
      ———

      Oct 30th / 8:07am

      DEM: 3,125,065 40.05%

      GOP: 2,953,709 37.97%

      Final 2016 FL All Early Voting
      DEM: 39.80%
      GOP: 38.34%

    183. Smack says:

      So according to Polk County Board of Elections no voter in the county casted an early vote for President on Thursday, October 29th?

    184. Stonewall DW says:

      DEM
      3142859 (39.98%)
      69.76% of 2016 Clinton votes
      119.51% of 2016 Democrat EV

      GOP
      2983810 (37.95%)
      64.61% of 2016 Trump votes
      117.78% of 2016 Republican EV

    185. Waingro says:

      IBD/Tipp tracker today has Biden +7 in HTH and +6 in 4 way. Seems like they are gonna settle in at about a 4-7 point deficit the rest of the way.

    186. Scooterboy says:

      The IDP/TIPP Tracker also has Trump 50% to 48% over Biden Nationally with Hispanics. If that number is correct Nationally, I don’t see how Biden wins.

    187. George says:

      Trafalgar Latest Summary:
      Florida Trump +2.7
      N.C Trump +2.8
      Pa Trump +0.8
      Mich Trump +2.5
      Wisc Biden +0.4

    188. Scooterboy says:

      It also has Trumps AA support at 11.7%

    189. Tina says:

      lly Newby
      @mantlehog
      ·
      36m
      Brunswick County NC is at 105.7% turnout vs 2016 vote.

      Brunswick Voter Registration Nov 2016 to Oct 2020
      GOP +9,382
      Dem -60
      11
      54
      234

    190. Tina says:

      Billy Newby
      @mantlehog
      ·
      41m
      NC Early Vote and VBM Update

      216,122 ballots cast (31,951 VBM and 184,171 in person)

      GOP 1,286,508 (31.5% vs 31.2% prior day)
      Dem 1,556,483 (38.1% vs 38.6% prior day)
      UNA 1,220,771 (29.9% vs 29.7% prior day)

      GOP won the total vote yesterday 77,875 to 62,651

    191. Scooterboy says:

      If at the beginning of this race, you knew that Trump would win 50% Hispanics Nationally, and 12% of the AA vote, what would your prediction have been?

    192. Tina says:

      Ras

      51/48

    193. SoHope says:

      GOP won NC yesterday even with Zeta going through western mountains of NC (the core of Republican NC….Im in Charlotte area and we had heavy winds most of the day.

    194. Stonewall DW says:

      Whoops…a NORTH CAROLINA poll where the pollster forgot the directive from NY Times and Silver.

      OCT 27-28, 2020
      Cardinal Point Analytics (CardinalGPS)
      750 LV

      Trump 48
      Biden 46

      Their prior poll was 48/47.

      Silver to drop their grade to F

    195. Gordon Allen says:

      IBD numbers are incredible. I think 12% is low for blacks,but even so 50% among Hispanics and 12% of blacks is completely incompatible with a 7 point deficit. White conservative voters have completely tuned out pollsters. Rasmussen as well. Will just have to see. I still want to find the first white Trump voter in 2016 who has switched. According to these pollsters there must be plenty of them.

    196. PresidentPaul! says:

      Donald J. Trump
      @realDonaldTrump

      ·
      4m
      I would NEVER have taken the endorsement of the man who, through gross incompetence, poisoned the people of Flint, Michigan. Former RINO Governor Rick Snyder should be ashamed of himself and his service. I was asked to help fix it. Biden took his endorsement. VOTE TRUMP!!!

    197. Stonewall DW says:

      Same poll has Tillis +5

    198. jason says:

      Ok, I think this explains it. We need to give Biden a break, he does make it quite clear.

      JOE BIDEN: “My son’s business dealings [in China] were not anything what everybody that he’s talking about, not even remotely, number one.”

    199. SoHope says:

      Still holding my vote til election day. One vote Trump didnt get in 2016 (I still believe he’s an ass). My mom early voted…another vote he didn’t get because she lived in SC

    200. Sheeple,Jr. says:

      #193- Waingro
      Today,the founder and CEO of the IBD/TIPP Poll has cautioned people to not take his poll on face value. To wit:

      Most of Biden’s advantage comes from the blue states, and it is clouding the hard battle the candidates are fighting in the battleground states,” TIPP President Raghavan Mayur said.

      The IBD/TIPP presidential poll suggests that Biden is outperforming Clinton’s 2016 results in both red and blue states. However, swing states, those six states decided by less than 2 points in 2016, look highly competitive.

      “Today’s Trump vs. Biden poll finds Biden up by 26 points in blue states and Trump leading by 11 points in red states. Yet the two are tied at 48% in swing states. To be sure, those differentials reflect smaller samples, especially the swing state total, which comes with a wide credibility interval.”

      Other findings if you read the article:
      1) Trump’s lead in rural America this year is greater than in 2016. Trump +32 in the boonies.
      2) Biden is doing worse with Latinos than Mrs. Clinton did in 2016.

      Read the whole write-up.

    201. PresidentPaul! says:

      Hispanics boo Biden after biden insults Trump

      People yell Ukraine at him lol

    202. Tina says:

      I thought I read that in Nc, the ds are down when compared to 2016 ev. Rs are Riga bit below.

      Looks like blacks fell below 20%, per Larry S.

    203. Todd McCain says:

      Seems to me that Trump is on course to win NC by a larger margin than 2016. Likely 5 points.

    204. Stonewall DW says:

      Peoples_Pundit
      @Peoples_Pundit
      · 53m
      The very first time I ran a voter file model in Wisconsin some five years ago, it was routinely D+something.

      In 2016, it shifted to nearly even.

      Now, the inference model is R+8 — excluding only deceased and change of address flags — surpassing any other R advantage we’ve found.

    205. BRENT says:

      Larry Schweikart
      @LarrySchweikart
      ·
      49m
      Rs now 3,000 votes ahead in Palm Beach
      Ds now a shocking 19 points behind their 2016 pace here.

      In Miami Dade it’s worse for Ds: down 7,000 in IPEV and off 2016 pace by nearly 30 points!

    206. Tina says:

      I have NC as 4 or 5 for Trump.

      On another note, it appears that in certain states, non college whites are voting in larger numbers

    207. Stonewall DW says:

      If I counted right, I counted only 8 counties in FL where Dems are ahead on the IPEV.

    208. Tina says:

      It could happen in Nevada.

      If trump gets it, he won’t need it. It’s just extra sprinkles on a cake.

      Larry Schweikart
      @LarrySchweikart
      ·
      21m
      NV Ds down to 45,000 lead
      Bad news: nearly 55% have voted.

      Although D cheerleader John Ralston has a model that Biteme wins by 10,000 (if Trump gets +5 indies), don’t think it’s that clear. He has Biteme getting 90% Ds. Don’t think it will be that high.

      A LOT of D crossovers.

    209. MrVito says:

      Port Charlotte/Punta Gorda has flipped to GOP advantage in EV over 2016.

    210. JeffP says:

      199 “If at the beginning of this race, you knew that Trump would win 50% Hispanics Nationally, and 12% of the AA vote, what would your prediction have been?”

      Exactly Scooterboy.

      I am beginning to think Trump holds ALL the states from 2016 with 1-3 point increase and flips a couple like NH, MN, NV, VA in that order of possibility.

      The early vote is not working out well at all for the Dems…vote by mail could also flip the house too.

      The Dems are hurt by 18-29 vote is down, the AA vote is down. Lockdown D Governors are going to cost their party.

    211. Waingro says:

      Schweikart‘s “Biteme” nickname tickles me every time!

    212. JeffP says:

      218…Tina…there will be a ton of D crossover for Trump in NV.

    213. jason says:

      Still holding my vote til election day. One vote Trump didnt get in 2016 (I still believe he’s an ass). My mom early voted…another vote he didn’t get because she lived in SC”

      Me too. My wife and I are voting Tuesday AM.

      2 more votes Trump did not get in 2016.

    214. jason says:

      lthough D cheerleader John Ralston has a model that Biteme wins by 10,000″

      If he really thinks it is that close he doesn’t know who will win.

      Just too many unknowns, especially on how Indies voted.

    215. RuRu says:

      NEVADA: Hispanics are at least 20% of the vote. Shear math, if Trump runs just 5% better – that is 1% incremental statewide; 10% better – that is 2% statewide.

      5% improvement just might do it with current trends.
      10% and its lights out for Uncle Joe.

      The EV map this year will be more scrambled than people think – so Nevada matters in all scenarios.

      (And just for grins, while it’s on no one’s radar – I still say watch NM!)

    216. Todd McCain says:

      SLF is putting another 4M in Michigan Senate Race.

    217. Gordon Allen says:

      Rasmussen will probably have Trump at 46-47 H to H because he’s been running 4-5 points behind his job approval. A probable Biden lead of 48 -46 or 49-46. With a 41% black approval rate!!??!!??

    218. Sean says:

      Trump has been about two points ahead of Obama’s approval in the Rasmussen tracking poll at the corresponding time period of his first term. It’s been like that for about the past week. Trump has been bouncing back and forth between 51 and 52 percent the past week.

      A charismatic President running against a “generic” leader of the opposition party. Romney flipped a state or two, but Obama still won. Wouldn’t be surprised with a similar result.

    219. Greymarch says:

      Today Trump is in MN, MI and WI. I know Biden is making an appearance in Detroit today with Obama. That’s a good sign for Trump. Biden should have MI locked up by now, and he certainly shouldnt need the ultimate black-turnout machine to help him win MI. If MI is that close, Trump is gonna take one of those rust-belt states.

      If Trump doesnt spend Sunday and Monday in PA, I am gonna be pissed.

    220. JeffS says:

      @226- What is SLF?

    221. Stonewall DW says:

      FL gap drops another 4000

      155,097

    222. Tina says:

      I think Biden is in Mi tomorrow with the obumbler,

      Today’s he is in Minnesota.

    223. phoenixrisen says:

      Geez DW. The GOP would have been ecstatic with a 200K gap in Florida.

    224. Chicon says:

      Trump, don’t listen to your experts. Make sure you listen to Greymarch, otherwise he’ll be pissed.

    225. buster says:

      SLF = Senate Leadership Fund

    226. Sean says:

      Trump rallies:

      Trump’s rally schedule for the remainder of the campaign is out. I do not see a man in retreat or on the defense.

      Today: MI/WI/MN

      Saturday: PAx3

      Sunday: MI/GA/FL

      Monday: PA/FL/MI

    227. Todd McCain says:

      Seems the GOP is laying on the heat already today in the last weekday of IPEV in Florida. Already netted 11K.

    228. Tina says:

      Trump is in pa on Saturday and Monday.

      While not Sunday and Monday, is it ok?

      ?

    229. Greymarch says:

      If Trump wins MN or WI, wins FL, but loses PA, that 269/269 tie starts become a possibility. Good heavens, the chaos in this country would be worse than the late 1960s. Almost akin to the months leading up to the Civil War (NO, I am not implying there will be a civil war. Absolutely not. Aint gonna happen, no matter the outcome of the prez race. Stop being silly. Get it out of your minds.)

    230. Tina says:

      Biden is in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and iowa today.

      Need to moni4or closely for anger and darkness and phuq ups.

    231. Scooterboy says:

      So far this week, 71% of bets placed at Ladbrokes have been for Trump (60% of stakes)

    232. BRENT says:

      Larry Schweikart
      @LarrySchweikart
      ·
      1h
      NC
      Ds +270,000 (2016 was 310,000)

      ALARM BELLS!!
      Black share dropped to 19.55 (dropped for 5th straight day)
      In 2016 this was 21%.
      This year Trump will take an additional 3-5% of that 19%.

    233. jason says:

      Doesn’t sound too confident.

      “Democrats have a big turnout issue in the Hispanic community in Miami-Dade,” said Florida-based Democratic data analyst Matt Isbell. “Hispanic Democrat turnout is only 48% while the Republican Hispanics are at 57%. This large of a gap doesn’t exist in Broward or Orange. It is a Miami problem.”

      Polling of Florida’s Hispanics has been all over the board. A Mason-Dixon poll conducted for Telemundo and released Thursday showed Biden leading Trump 48-43 percent among Florida Hispanics, a margin that could be disastrous for Democrats.

      “I would rather be in our position than theirs,” said Joshua Geise, Florida director for America Votes, an independent organization coordinating with 50 groups on the ground to turn out voters for Biden.

      Geise acknowledged some of the turnout issues in Miami-Dade and said his group ramped up in the past week and had 100,000 conversations at people’s doors in the county, a third of all the face-to-face interactions they had in the entire state. He said Democrats will make a huge push this weekend to halt the Republican gains in early voting.

      “We’ve got to stop the bleeding,” Geise said.

      One veteran Democratic organizer from South Florida expressed concern that winning Florida looks more difficult by the day as Republicans turn out in big numbers and the pace of Democratic momentum in casting early ballots slows. It’s a sign the party is exhausting its high propensity voters — and the hard-to-motivate voters are tough to turn out.

      “Look, our people hate Trump and they like Biden. But not enough of them love Biden,” the organizer said. “It also doesn’t help that the campaign reacted so late here and they didn’t help us with voter registration when we needed to be doing it.”

    234. jaichind says:

      U Mich Consumer Sentiment Index: 81.8

      2016 Oct: 87.2
      2012 Oct: 82.6
      2008 Oct: 57.6
      2004 Oct: 91.7
      2000 Oct: 105.8
      1996 Oct: 96.5
      1992 Oct: 73.3
      1988 Oct: 94.1
      1984 Oct: 96.3
      1980 Oct: 75.0

      The number seems most like 2012 out of the more recent re-election years.

    235. Greymarch says:

      Reading lots of pundits saying most of the mail-in and absentee ballots wont be completely counted for days, perhaps a few weeks after election day.

      The network I trust to “call” states is Fox News. I dont care if CNN, NBC, CBS, ABC, NY Times, etc call a state, I wont believe it until Fox News also calls it.

      So….might we be in a situation after election night that at least a dozen states have not been called by the few news-nets who actually want to be accurate, and tell the truth? If we arent even close to knowing who the next prez is after election night, the next two weeks is gonna be a madhouse. If you live anywhere in/near a downtown area, get the hell out of there before midnight on election night.

    236. Tina says:

      Trying to win an election on hate is not a great proposition. De ja vu of 2004 or 2012, except the economy is way better now than then.

      “Look, our people hate Trump and they like Biden. But not enough of them love Biden,

    237. jason says:

      But not enough of them love Biden,”

      LOL

    238. jaichind says:

      247. Why would they say that. In most states the mail in vote are counted first. Sure, the ones that are post marked by election day but came in later will be counted later but I have to assume that most of not close to all of the VBM will have been in by election day.

    239. hugh says:

      this is lining up to be trumps biggest day yet in FL. We will see. up about 15K as of 8:23. Soon the EV gap % relative to 2016 will flip in palm beach and polk county.

      Total current vote gap% is .42% I suppose it is possible it could get to even, but Sunday should be the dems last big gasp and they should make some ground.

    240. hugh says:

      I believe in Florida, if mail in ballots are not received on the 3rd they are not counted.

    241. Greymarch says:

      “Look, our people hate Trump and they like Biden. But not enough of them love Biden,” the organizer said. “It also doesn’t help that the campaign reacted so late here and they didn’t help us with voter registration when we needed to be doing it.”

      The above quote might be the most telling quote of the entire election. Sure, the dems gave American voters a person who is “acceptable”. Someone they are familiar with, but they didnt give America someone who energizes them to get-out and vote for their candidate. As Chris Mathews once said “Obama gives me a tingle down my leg.” Biden isnt doing that for any dem voter.

      Dems are completely dependent on the belief that the anti-Trump vote is greater than the pro-Trump vote. It might be true. The big problem for the dems is digging up all those anti-Trump voters. You know the pro-Trump voters are gonna crawl through broken glass for Trump. Will the perhaps larger coalition of anti-Trump voters come through for Biden? No idea.

    242. Stonewall DW says:

      FL Gap now 152,671

    243. Smack says:

      All Early Voting – Florida
      ———

      Oct 30th / 9:45am

      DEM: 39.89%

      GOP: 37.99%

      Final 2016 FL All Early Voting
      DEM: 39.80%
      GOP: 38.34%

    244. jaichind says:

      252. As it should be. Can someone educate me how VBM counting works in CA? How come they take weeks to count the VBM ? I would imagine they must have, under normal circumstances, rules about the ballot must be post-marked by election day? If so are the postal system so slow that they will take weeks to arrive ?

    245. Tina says:

      Steve Guest
      @SteveGuest
      · 15m
      CNN’s Alisyn Camerota: Democrats are “worried,” “very concerning,” “it’s not going Biden’s way” in Florida

      https://twitter.com/SteveGuest/status/1322184840209379335

    246. WizardofCozz says:

      Looks to me like their definitely will be more NAP EV’ing this year then in 2016, either way this news all bodes well for Trump in 2020. How those Independents vote will be interesting, it may give insight into other states.

    247. jaichind says:

      257. For Dems to be worried about FL means they do not buy the argument that the independent vote will swing massively in favor of Biden. If so they should also be worried about NC and AZ.

    248. WizardofCozz says:

      As Jason has posted before. It looks more and more like FL, NC,IA, OH, and AZ are getting locked up. Just need that one more state!!

    249. jason says:

      Most clueless comment on that twitter feed…

      “I’m curious. We see Melania, Jill, the Trump kids all on the campaign trail. Where is Hunter? Are they hiding him?”

    250. Gordon Allen says:

      Hugh. Mail in ballots must be received by 8 pm on November 3, except as I understand it overseas military ballots.

    251. jason says:

      I am worried about AZ, I don’t think it is locked up.

      I think Trump will win the others however.

    252. MrVito says:

      Gallup crosstabs have that

      37% of GOP+leaners will vote on election day
      28% of pure independent will vote on election day
      20% of Dem+leaners will vote on election day

      In Florida, if this held right now, the GOP would have 90%+ turnout… so I’m gonna say there is a lot more early vote to come in over the next several days.

    253. dblaikie says:

      Just voted early in beautiful Lexington County, South Carolina. This County is main reason that South Carolina is red along with Greenville, Spartanburg, and Horry Counties. In 2016 Trump won Lexington by 45000 votes (65% of total vote). It was a zoo! Huge line of people. Cars lined up around the building for disabled early voters. In all my adult voting years I have never scene anything like it. I don’t what is going on in the blue counties of Richland (Columbia) and Charleston but I do know that a main red state county is going to have a huge vote. Looks good for Lindsey Graham.

    254. LewisS says:

      jaichnd,

      I think you’re exactly right regarding FL — if Dems are worried, it’s because of 2 things: (1) stronger-than-expected R turnout and (2) their polling is showing Ds are not winning Indies.

    255. Stonwall DW says:

      148484 and dropping like a rock.

    256. Stonewall DW says:

      And GOP still has 211635 MORE super-voters left in FL than Dems.

      Then the fact that polling shows non-affiliated voters are breaking toward Trump, and one can understand the Dem panic, as well as the polls showing Trump with a 2-4 point lead in FL.

    257. Greymarch says:

      #263: Agreed about AZ. Arizona is not locked-up for Trump.

      I lived in AZ for 34 years. Only recently left the state. AZ is trending left faster than any other state in the union. AZ is already a purple state. 8 years ago it was a red state. In one or two more election cycles AZ, electorally speaking, will be exactly the same as NV, CO and NM.

      I gotta start looking at EV maps, and plug-in Biden winning AZ, just to see the combos Trump needs to still win the election. AZ is 10 EV, same as WI and MN. Trump may need to steal NV, if Trump loses AZ.

    258. Stonewall DW says:

      When Biden loses on Tuesday, one of the media mantra’s will be, “it was stolen by Trump because NONE of the polls showed this!” They will say this to stir up civil unrest. Its why the updated data below is important to remember:

      Pollsters that show Trump leads:

      GA: Landmark Communications (+4), Emerson College (+1), Monmouth (+5), (4 ties)
      FL: Susquehanna (+5), Tyson Group (+2), Rasmussen (+4), Trafalgar (+3), Insider Advantage (+3), Democracy Institute (+4), Big Data Poll (+2), ABC News/Washington Post (+4), (2 ties)
      AZ: Rasmussen (+4), Susquehanna (+1), Big Data Poll (+3), Morning Consult (+1), Trafalgar (+4), Targoz (+1)
      NC: Cardinal Point (+2), Trafalgar (+3), Rasmussen (+1), UMass-Lowell (+1) (3 ties)
      PA: Trafalgar (+1), Insider Advantage (+3) (1 tie)
      MI: Zia Polling (+4), Trafalgar (+2.5)
      WI: Big Data Poll (of indies +2), (1 tie)
      NH: Democracy Institute (+2)
      MN: Democracy Institute (+2)

    259. Tina says:

      Agree on Az, but the r registrations are back up to 130,000. It was down I earlier this year to an advantage of R plus 95000.

    260. jason says:

      Dems are completely dependent on the belief that the anti-Trump vote is greater than the pro-Trump vote.”

      The question is which agenda do they prefer.

      I still think this is an agenda election.

      If you don’t want the nanny state, defunding the police, open borders etc. you will vote for Trump, even if you think he is an ass.

      If you want the government to make most decisions for you, and you think you will benefit from all the “free” goodies the Dems are offering, and you are comfortable with socialism, you will vote for Biden, even if you think he is mentally impaired and you will get Kamala as President.

      Now if Robbie is right and the electorate is composed of stupid airheads and morons that don’t understand anything about policy and what is at stake and instead will vote on “personality” who knows?

      Would you really rather have a beer with Biden than with Trump? I would think a beer with Trump would be a lot more fun.

    261. Dylan says:

      269—All true but supports the proposition that political parties have to ALWAYS be working to expand members and cannot rely on old electoral strategies because they get stale. The Bush GOP EV strategy was just about dead in the water as of 2004 and he ended up just squeaking it with 287 EV’s. McCain and Romney proved that it was dead. Trump was the only republican who could have put the Midwest in play but that will have to evolve further in the future with the GOP having to figure out how to rebrand with Hispanics and Asians so they can be competitive in purple states.

    262. Tina says:

      Who is this polling firm? They have China at plus 16 in Michigan.

      Political Polls
      @PpollingNumbers
      · 8m
      #NEW Ohio Poll:

      Trump 55% (+11)
      Biden 44%
      Jorgensen 1%
      Hawkins 0%

      Swayable
      (LV, 10/23-26)

    263. Waingro says:

      #209, thanks, Sheeple. I will check it out!

    264. jason says:

      Trump may need to steal NV, if Trump loses AZ.”

      These things move in tandem. I see Trump with a chance at NV IF he wins AZ. I don’t see him losing AZ and winning NV.

    265. Sheeple,Jr. says:

      Rasmussen(less) has Biden +3. Do national head-to-heads matter anymore? We know that Biden will carry the Northeast and the West Coast States by 25&+ so any daily increase or decrease in those areas are mostly irrelevant for the electoral college.
      Read today’s article by IBD/TIPP for more.

    266. Waingro says:

      Nate Silver sounds nervous today. He’s revving up the hedging.

    267. jason says:

      Who is this polling firm? They have China at plus 16 in Michigan.

      Political Polls
      @PpollingNumbers
      · 8m
      #NEW Ohio Poll:

      Trump 55% (+11)
      Biden 44%
      Jorgensen 1%
      Hawkins 0%”

      Again, the tandem thing. If Trump wins OH by 11, he can’t lose MI by 16. Or even 10.

    268. Sheeple,Jr. says:

      #274- Tina
      They are nobodies! Disregard.

    269. hugh says:

      Smack. Where are you getting your numbers?

    270. BRENT says:

      Swayable =JOKE

    271. OHIO Joe says:

      “If Trump wins OH by 11, he can’t lose MI by 16” Yup.

    272. Tina says:

      Thanks sheeple, a lot of these “polling firms” I never hear of.

    273. Sean says:

      Greymarch, oddly enough Baris found that the first generation folks who moved to Arizona from another state is Trump’s best group. Trump is bleeding second generation folks this time around, it’s not the new voters.

      I’m sure Baris will post here asking for more money.

    274. hugh says:

      I think the national numbers mean little now, but i will take -3 from RAS given he has a +4 dem electorate. I think the odds of more dems as a percentage increasing over 2016 is laughable. Certainly, the EV does not support it.

    275. Tina says:

      Aka No Ground Game

      Jason Miller
      @JasonMillerinDC
      1/ Just spoke with a smart Dem strategist who is upset with the media’s suppression campaign against Biden voters.

      Dems have spent months scaring voters away from in-person voting & are now realizing they need those votes, and media COVID fearmongering isn’t helping matters…
      8:12 AM · Oct 30, 2020·Twitter for iPhone
      102
      Retweets
      11
      Quote Tweets
      327
      Likes

      Jason Miller
      @JasonMillerinDC
      ·
      4m
      Replying to
      @JasonMillerinDC
      2/ Additionally, these possible Biden voters just aren’t that excited to go stand in line for him, on top of the media-driven COVID in-person voting fears.

      Massive enthusiasm disadvantage for Biden camp heading into Election Day is a problem – the Red Wave is coming!

    276. Waingro says:

      From the IBD/Tipp article Sheeple was referring to:

      “Today’s Trump vs. Biden poll finds Biden up by 26 points in blue states and Trump leading by 11 points in red states. Yet the two are tied at 48% in swing states. To be sure, those differentials reflect smaller samples, especially the swing state total, which comes with a wide credibility interval.

      Of course, the Trump vs. Biden race may not hinge quite as much upon those swing states of Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota and New Hampshire, if Biden pulls an upset in places like Arizona, Iowa, North Carolina, or even in a Nebraska and Maine congressional district that awards electoral votes separately.”

      Sheeple: I assume the tied 48% “swing states” are the ones specifically referred to in 2nd paragraph? “Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota and New Hampshire”

      If that’s the case, Trump is in GREAT shape.

    277. Stonewall DW says:

      The swayable polling appears to have been a national sample out of which they published tiny results for each state, of the states they chose to release.

      Samples of 200 to 400 are not going to cut it. They probably didn’t even bother to properly weight the results per state. I mean come on, they have Biden ahead only 11 in Illinois, and Trump ahead only 11 in Indiana.

      Worthless.

    278. jaichind says:

      280

      I have not heard of them before

      https://www.swayable.com/polls/2020-10-28.html

      They have a Biden +5.7 national poll but the state level polling are pretty wild

      AZ: Biden +8.4
      FL: Trump +4.2
      GA: Biden +2.4
      MI: Biden +19!!!
      NC: Biden +2.7
      OH: Trump +11.7
      PA: Biden +5.8
      TX: Trump +1.1
      WI: Biden +8.8

      FL is the massive outlier here

    279. Tina says:

      Garbage in and out with swayablel

    280. Waingro says:

      #290, uh I would MI is the massive outlier, lol.

    281. dblaikie says:

      Poor John Ralston no matter how much he plays twister with numbers things are looking bleak for dems in the silver state. The dems have relied on mail in voting and they are winning it by around 20 points. However the mail in vote is slowing dramatically down. Yet the in person voting is becoming peddle to meddle. So far the GOP is plus 15 in in person voting. Right now the dam advantage is about 45000 votes once yesterday is factored in and today is posted it could be less that 40000 votes.

      Alright with that background, the fact that Ralston wants to avoid is that the GOP is winning in person voting in Clark. They have won everyday except for the first day. Right now in Clark County the GOP is up 8 points with unperson voting! Point being Ralston and his followers like Gator talk about another 100000 votes coming out of Clark on election day. Maybe but it appears the GOP will have the majority of those votes. It gets worse, in Washoe County in person voting the GOP is up 20 points. We won’t even mention the Cow Counties where it plus GOP 40 or more.

      So unless in person voting on election day is completely opposite of in early in person voting, Biden is in big trouble. That is why Ralston is playing twister. Finally this reveals the bogus nature of the Times Sienna Poll that had Biden up 6 points. What a joke.

    282. JeffS says:

      2020 Fla = 2016 Oh ? Only a Trump blow-out, which is possible, could equal the magic of election night 2016.

    283. Tina says:

      How come Florida is an outlier in the unswayed pole?

    284. Gatorjoel says:

      Since Trump is in trouble (likely to lose) AZ and NC, why not go there? He is having to defend blowout states like FL and GA. Makes zero sense!!

    285. George says:

      Latest Dem talking point…..”the shy Biden voter”. Getting desperate.

    286. Gordon Allen says:

      The problem with Rasmussen is the unheard of discrepancy between approval and h to h. After all the approval number comes from all areas as well.
      Going by IBD and Rasmussen Biden is having great days and Trump slumping. Despite the laptop from hell,record crowds for Trump, endorsement from prominent blacks and historic gdp growth both have Biden widening his national lead ,while battleground states polls have moved opposite. Something is radically amiss.

    287. Robbie says:

      jason says:
      October 30, 2020 at 11:12 am
      Now if Robbie is right and the electorate is composed of stupid airheads and morons that don’t understand anything about policy and what is at stake and instead will vote on “personality” who knows?

      Would you really rather have a beer with Biden than with Trump? I would think a beer with Trump would be a lot more fun.

      – Just to be clear, I said the group of voters who decide elections (the middle 15%-20% whose votes swing back and forth) aren’t people who vote based on policy. They usually vote based on personality.

    288. dblaikie says:

      IBD/Tipp most have a small budget. Only polling 200 people a day is very small and in my view shaky. When they say the sample may be small in the battleground states that may be the understatement of the year! How may people out of 200 do you think that they polled in New Hampshire. Once again it leads me to view all polling as secondary data points in this election cycle.

    289. Smack says:

      Pasco County, Florida, All Early Voting in 2020 per party registration is looking a lot like 2016 All Early Voting numbers…maybe even a touch better after Sunday.

      Why is this so important?

      Pasco County Election Day numbers in 2016 told HRC’s team they were going to be in trouble with the rust belt states.

      Well….here we go again.

    290. hugh says:

      As of 9:23 reps up by 21K votes. may be our best day yet.

    291. Tina says:

      Twitter as it’s they error. If they respect the customer, they should correct, flapper. While the customer is not always right, the post is right in this situation,

      Jake Tapper
      @jaketapper
      · 25m
      Since twitter has locked out the NYPost for violating rules that no longer stand as rules (but twitter won’t revisit past enforcement decisions) the NY Post COULD end this standoff by deleting the tweets that broke the rules (thus unlocking its account) then tweet them out again
      Show

    292. mnw says:

      273 jason

      U know the old George Thorogood song “I Drink Alone”?

      That’s what YOU’D be doing if you tried to “have a beer with Trump.”

    293. jason says:

      Dems have spent months scaring voters away from in-person voting & are now realizing they need those votes, and media COVID fearmongering isn’t helping matters”

      Maybe Robbie has helped us out unwittingly!

    294. jason says:

      Just to be clear, I said the group of voters who decide elections (the middle 15%-20% whose votes swing back and forth) aren’t people who vote based on policy. They usually vote based on personality.”

      Yeah, it is clear you think they are airhead morons that don’t understand what is going on.

      I got it.

    295. Gatorjoel says:

      Of course more people would like to have a beer or champagne with Trump. However, that test is way overrated. W was way more like able than Gore or Kerry but was a lousy president by plunging this country into a needless war in Iraq costing thousands of lives, completely botching the Katrina response and having major recession happen on his watch. Ideally, the Democrats would have nominated someone who is like able and competent like Obama or Clinton but w Biden at least you get competent. This country needs normalcy and competence. We can’t see hundreds of thousands more die because of ineptitude.

    296. mnw says:

      I can’t decide if GBJ doesn’t tread Wes’ NC posts, or if he can’t understand them.

      Every time that fool posts about NC, it makes me feel better about Trump winning re-election.

      A child of 7 can see how wrong GBJ is about NC, which kind of places ALL this troll’s other breezy predictions in perspective.

      Also, the troll flat-out lies about Baris. Sheeple caught him flat-footed on one of his thin air whoppers, i.e., that Baris had written off Trump’s chances in MI. Sheep linked to the real Baris pull quote.

    297. Stonewall DW says:

      Florida gap now just 144208 and FALLING

    298. Justin says:

      Anyone else thinking that COVID cases “surging” will result in an even bigger election day advantage? Republicans aren’t scared. Democrats aren’t going to go stand in line and put themselves “at risk” for Joe Biden.

    299. MrVito says:

      In TargetSmart, you can now compare the early vote to the total early vote or final election numbers of 2016….

      and holy wow.

    300. jason says:

      Trump needs to win AZ and PA.

      To me, it keeps coming back to that.

      I find the other paths less likely.

      Sue me.

    301. Stonewall DW says:

      I recall Chuck Todd on NBC 2016 election night coverage. The longer it went, the more irritated he became, until finally when it was all but over, he boiled over and ranted against how stupid Hillary was to have no message, to just be running on hate of Trump, and not offering voters any reason to vote FOR her.

      Biden’s campaign in this record is Hillary’s cubed.

    302. Sheeple,Jr. says:

      “Detroit election officials are projecting 50% voter turnout in the city of Detroit, higher than in 2016, but lower than in 2012 and 2008 when Barack Obama’s candidacy drew high voter participation. And the number of absentee ballots the city is expecting is now lower than officials had estimated earlier this month. Speaking Thursday to reporters in the basement of TCF Center in downtown Detroit, Detroit City Clerk Janice Winfrey and other election officials said they are working to prepare for a historic election in Michigan — a swing state that many will be closely watching next week.”

    303. Florida Guy says:

      Eight years ago around this time, DW ruined my dinner when he (or someone on HHR) said the polls were not adding up for Romney and that Mitt would lose. I never saw evidence of that, and indeed, at the time, I lived in two of the only FL counties that swung away from Obama. But Romney lost FL.

      Now no one says Trump will lose, for sure, except the same people from 2016. Trump will likely lose the popular vote but he is not betting on the PV. Trafalgar is making a big bet, but they were often right in 2016 and 2018.

      I honestly am not sure. I think T can still win, especially if that old axiom about tightening in the “final two weeks” comes true.

      -FG

    304. jason says:

      This country needs normalcy and competence.”

      Isn’t that what everybody thinks when they think of plagiarist little girl sniffing mentally impaired utterly corrupt Joe Biden?

      Normalcy and competence?

      LOL

    305. Sheeple,Jr. says:

      #311- Vito
      Can you summarize what “holy wow” means? Thanks.

    306. Robbie says:

      I’ve been adjusting back and forth my electoral map on 270towin.com since July. I’ve moved a state or two towards Trump in the last couple of days.

    307. dblaikie says:

      The thing that gets me about gator is the stupidity of not factoring antibody therapeutics and a vaccine in the fews months. No factoring in of operation warp speed which will distribute millions and millions vaccines to our healthcare workers and most vulnerable folks. Because when the FDA gets it butt in gear and moves on the therapeutics and the vaccine when it comes, we are going to kick Covid19 in the ass. But simple people like Gator want to have a dark winter along with Slow Joe.

    308. Wes says:

      I make no secret of loathing GWB, but even I acknowledge it’s unfair to blame him for the ’08 recession. Lehman Brothers collapsed because of subprime mortgage loans–a policy enacted by Democrats. The Bush Administration did try to address the subprime issue well before the collapse, but Barney Frank–because of a conflict issues thanks to his boyfriend’s involvement with the subprime mortgagers–launched an offensive accusing the Administration of racism in dealing with the subprime issue.

      Bush quietly dropped the issue, which continued to fester until Lehman Brothers went belly up.

      Thus, it’s incredibly disingenuous to blame GWB for the recession. He was, however, the President at the time and consequently took undeserved blame for an issue he had nothing to do with.

    309. Tina says:

      I do t think China has a big advantage on muh covid.

      He has no plan other than lockdowns, mask mandate, etc.

      All he says is he can do it better than trump and his plan is secret.

    310. MrVito says:

      317 Well, in the battlegrounds, for example, it has the EV modeled as 45-45. It modeled the end of EV in those battlegrounds in 2016 as 46-44 D

    311. jaichind says:

      If Trump wins FL then if Trump is defeated we are talking about a narrow defeat and not a significant defeat. The problem with that is that last time a President running for re-election was defeated narrowly was Cleveland (1884) and Harrison (1892). All defeats of a President running for re-election were decisive (1932 1980 1992)

    312. Stonewall DW says:

      And the GOP still has 65,000 more super-voters left, after the current gap closes to ZERO. Then with polling showing Trump doing better among unaffiliated compared to Biden, along with the polling showing Hispanic voters going stronger for Trump than 2016, and its no wonder Dems are in a panic over FL.

      And their solution is to send their Marxist veep candidate to southeast Florida to persuade voters who came here to escape Marxism, to change their minds and vote for Marxism.

    313. Scooterboy says:

      Bye coney on Twitter- Interesting analysis-

      SUMTER COUNTY CASE STUDY: On the crossover votes: Once again, people do not go from standing in line for hours to vote their party to standing in line to vote for the opposing party, especially in this age when politics are part of identity.

      There’s a demotivation phase in between. Exhibit A is Miami-Dade county.

      If Republicans were resigned to vote for Biden, they’d be staying home. And they aren’t. Quite the opposite.

      On the topic of seniors, let’s take the much-discussed Sumter county. 2/…
      The narrative is senior Republicans are voting for Biden because of COVID-19.

      The logical inference is that these seniors, therefore, will be mailing in their votes – because why would they stand in line if they’re afraid of COVID-19? 3/…
      That’s where the Advanced Tab comes in handy. Use these settings to find out if Republican turnout is lower in Sumter County when it comes to in-person voting. 4/…
      And we find that Sumter County isn’t particularly light on the map. 75.64% of Republicans in Sumter are voting in-person, in higher proportions than many other counties. This despite them having very real reasons to stay home. End thread.

    314. Sheeple,Jr. says:

      Interesting data point: very blue OREGON 17% behind their absentee return rate from 2016.(H/T: Larry Schweikart)

    315. Waingro says:

      #327, works for me, Marv!

    316. Stonewall DW says:

      327 – Marv, I chose not to BOOM the cardinal poll that came out this morning showing the same margin in NC. But perhaps you are right and both should be BOOM.

    317. hugh says:

      as of 9:43 23K votes. again polk is not posting votes during the day.

    318. Scooterboy says:

      Even Axelrod is doomering over the lack of AA support in Florida.

    319. BillW says:

      #320 Wes – I don’t blame GWB for the housing crash and the recession.

      I DO blame GWB for not taking advantage of majorities in House and Senate from 2002 – 2006 to pass conservative legislation: tort reform, elimination of CAFE requirements, for example.

      I DO blame GWB for nominating Harriet Miers and then not supporting her when the conservatives in the House began attacking her.

      I DO blame GWB for allowing the administrative state to grow, and grow, and grow.

    320. Marv says:

      DW

      I put a tentative BOOM on NC because two days ago I forgot to BOOM Cahaly’s MI poll.

    321. jaichind says:

      332. I blame GWB for the Iraq War. The day the Iraq War started was the day I stopped identifying as a R. I returned only after the 2008 election.

    322. Tina says:

      Hmm,

      Areas boarding up for the election, including Dc.

      I wonder if the Proud Boys will riot?

    323. Tina says:

      I think trump supporters are following the Biden bus in Tx.

      https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1322202983816454144

    324. JeffS says:

      Post-election pundit will again ask, “Why?” and “How?” I’ll only speak for myself here, but every day the city of Portland burned, every business owner I saw weeping in front of their looted store in Minneapolis, every day Pelosi stood her ground while the airline industry suffered, every million of my tax dollars wasted on a phony impeachment, all of that, combined with seeing a president stand in firm resolve and still do his job competently, even while distracted daily by the infantile antics of the Dem leadership, a whiny White House press corps and biased-beyond-belief media, I got a little bit angrier. Looking like I’m not alone. Why, it’s almost as if millions got so fed up they felt as if they could spit….votes. And they/we did/will.

    325. BRENT says:

      Larry Schweikart
      @LarrySchweikart
      ·
      42m
      Interesting data point: very blue OR 17% behind their absentee return rate from 2016.

    326. MrVito says:

      The Florida early vote advantage map is looking like a tasty strip of bacon.

    327. GatorBJ says:

      OK- I think FL NC OH and probably AZ are gone.

      But it doesnt matter because we’re going to win TX. Early votes already passed all votes from 2016.

      So we win. Prove me wrong

      Chomp chomp chomp…

    328. Stonewall DW says:

      FL gap now down to 142270, with GOP still holding 65,700 super-voters in store, for after the gap closes to 0.

      With the greater likelihood of Ds crossing over to vote Trump at a greater rate than Rs crossing over to vote for Biden, and with the NPAs going Trump at a greater rate, the Trump +4 polls are looking smarter and smarter.

    329. JC says:

      337 JeffS

      Well put.

    330. PresidentPaul! says:

      Problem was bush invaded iraq in 2003 right when reelection was starting. It wasnt really clear it was a f-up and ppl were amped for reelection while it was happening.

      Kerry even said the election just fell too early. Had reelection fallen in 05 gwb would have lost.

      Gop voters then fell flat in 06 and 08, and didnt return until 2010.

    331. Stonewall DW says:

      Oh wow, PPP-D is ALL IN…

      FL: Biden +7
      PA: Biden +7

      They must have polled some place on Mars called “Florida” and got the results mixed up.

    332. Tina says:

      It also did not help that you had pedo blob and Rs going full open borders.

    333. PresidentPaul! says:

      And of course a bunch of pending 04 court retirements to polarize everything.

    334. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      Peters looking great in Michigan! Just sent a new donation to him this morning to thank him for fighting for us.

    335. Waingro says:

      #345, I would absolutely LOVE to see PPP(D) finally exposed for the full blown frauds they are. This election could be a white wash of all these outlets.

    336. Stonewall DW says:

      I mean wow, even OBAMA, who never had to run against an incumbent, only got a +3 win in Florida. But PPP says a bumbling old fool hiding in his basement is going to win Florida by FOUR more points than Obama in the 2008 ‘historic’ election?

    337. Gary Peters says:

      Thanks for the 27 cents. I now have $1.30 cash on hand.

    338. Tina says:

      Wow fallaci How come he never did a change here?

      Tom Woods
      @ThomasEWoods
      · 1h
      Thanks to @adamcurry for finding even Dr. Fauci himself saying that PCR cycle thresholds above 35 are ridiculous https://noagendaassets.com/enc/1604001883.242_thisweekinvirology-fauci-1-above35ctpcrisnotaccurate.mp3…
      Show this thread

    339. MrVito says:

      Dems now have the same share of early vote that they had in 2016 in Florida.

    340. Stonewall DW says:

      “Dems now have the same share of early vote that they had in 2016 in Florida.”

      And in 2020, they were ALL told to vote early by mail, unlike 2016.

    341. Michelle Obama vs the DNC buffet table says:

      LOL!!!
      ———————–
      Gary Peters says:
      October 30, 2020 at 12:26 pm
      Thanks for the 27 cents. I now have $1.30 cash on hand.

    342. Stonewall DW says:

      FL Gap now just 140511

    343. LewisS says:

      MrVito — All that effort FL Ds put into early voting and it’s gone… that must be demoralizing.

    344. jaichind says:

      If FL ends up being what the early+VBM vote implies I wonder how Mike Bloomberg will explain to the Dem establishment how he spent is $100 million in FL.

    345. Wes says:

      Bill, Harriet Miers was a complete unknown who didn’t acquit herself well during the nomination process. GWB was right to abandon her, though in retrospect John Roberts was not a suitable replacement.

    346. Stonewall DW says:

      and my last update, the GOP in FL still had 65,000 super-voters left over after bringing the gap down to 0.

      Now in this update, they still have 66,462 super-voters left over.

      So the Dems are dropping like a rock, and they are BURNING UP THEIR SUPER-VOTERS at a faster rate than the GOP.

    347. Florida Guy says:

      Trump will likely win FL, I must say.

      -FloG

    348. Sheeple,Jr. says:

      #345- DW
      With respect to the FL and PA Polls just released, Nate Silver says that they were commissioned by a third party Liberal group connected with climate change.
      (Go to 538. You will see an * next to the PPP polls. The * indicates third party polls.)

    349. Smack says:

      All Early Voting – Florida
      ———

      Oct 30th / 11:34am

      DEM: 39.80%

      GOP: 38.04%

      Final 2016 FL All Early Voting
      DEM: 39.80%
      GOP: 38.34%

      There it is…DEM’s percentage has already hit their 2016 mark and will continue to drop until end of day Sunday.

      WOW!

    350. Stonewall DW says:

      “Daily Mail US
      @DailyMail
      ·
      9m
      SpaceX declares independence: Firm says they will not recognize Earth laws in planned Mars colony”

      AWESOME!! Take Pelosi, antifa, Bernie, and all the leftists out there, and go to Mars and create your utopia!!!

    351. MrVito says:

      The partisan gap in returned vbm in Florida is down to 1.5%.

    352. JeffS says:

      GatorBJ- You keep saying “chomp, chomp” when the Biden campaign operative word is “chump.” Did you miss that conference call?

    353. jason says:

      If Trump wins FL then if Trump is defeated we are talking about a narrow defeat”

      Sorry, there is no participation trophy in the Presidential race.

      You win or lose.

    354. Stonewall DW says:

      362 – thanks for the clarification, however, this does have their name on it, and it goes into my database as their final poll of FL, for my grading system. If you lend your name to something, then you pay the price.

    355. MrVito says:

      At one of the Trump rallies, when Trump said we would be the first country to put a woman on the moon, someone yelled ‘Nancy Pelosi’.

    356. hugh says:

      360. That is assuming that our supervoter gap changes on a 1 to 1 basis to get to even with EV. However, that has not be the case. We will like have well over 100,000 supervoters left if the EV gets to even. However, I think it is more likely we end up around 100000 down after sunday, since many red counties will not be voting and a reduced souls to the polls. I hope I am wrong and maybe the way today is going.

      Blowout coming in FL!!

    357. jason says:

      Mike Bloomberg will explain to the Dem establishment how he spent is $100 million in FL.”

      The DeSantis administration appreciates the cash injection into the economy.

    358. PresidentPaul! says:

      Alito replaced miers.

    359. Tina says:

      Trumps Monday’s pa rally is in Scranton

    360. hugh says:

      at 10:23 we are at 27K could be over 60 today

    361. Stonewall DW says:

      370 – correct. I am simply assuming for the sake of arugment the 1:1 ratio, subtracting the difference of super-voters at present, from the current gap in vote total.

      This is why its great news that the GOP super-voter leftovers is growing while the gap is shrinking. The Dems are burning up their super-voters at a greater rate.

    362. Tina says:

      Quote Tweet

      Mudar Zahran ??? ?????
      @Mudar_Zahran
      · 2h
      Western sources:
      IRAN sent a message to US, through a 3rd party, offering PEACE negotiations with ISRAEL, that could include Iraq and Lebanon

      Iran’s suggestion: Lifting of sanctions in exchange of recognition of pre-1967 Israel

      No response from US to Iran yet, as per sources

    363. jason says:

      pre-1967 Israel is a non starter.

    364. Tina says:

      Jewish Deplorable ??
      @TrumpJew
      · 5m
      Trump final rally schedule:

      Sunday:
      Washington, MI
      Dubuque, IA
      Hickory, NC
      Rome, GA
      Miami, FL

      Monday:
      Fayetteville, NC
      Scranton, PA
      Traverse City, MI
      Kenosha, WI
      Grand Rapids, MI

    365. jason says:

      MrVito — All that effort FL Ds put into early voting and it’s gone… that must be demoralizing”

      And now they have scared the remaining voters from voting….

    366. Tina says:

      Fayetteville is a do over from yesterday’s canceled rally due to bad weather.

    367. PresidentPaul! says:

      Scranton is smart. For some reason biden polls well there bc they believe he is from there even though he is from delaware.

      Keep his margins down in the one area is is overperforming.

    368. Tina says:

      There may be more early rallies on 11/3.

    369. jason says:

      I don’t like the FL, GA, NC and IA rallies.

      Trump needs to gamble he has these states and concentrate on PA, WI and MI.

    370. jason says:

      Scranton is smart.

      A large turnout there will be demoralizing for Biden.

    371. Justin says:

      Where will Pence be on the last few days? I’d have him in AZ and NV.

    372. jason says:

      Anyone in Scranton who votes for Biden is a moron.

    373. PresidentPaul! says:

      Biden should have bought a ranch in scranton so he can wear a cowboy hat there like GWB had set up for his prez race.

    374. jaichind says:

      385. I would argue GA NC and IA does make sense since the GOP senate candidates there seems to be running behind Trump.

    375. Justin says:

      IA and GA is a bit concerning, but that will be four rallies in PA and three in MI over the last three days. At some point, you run out of places to have rallies.

    376. jason says:

      I do like the MI rallies.

      They must think it is in play, they would not waste precious rallies on it otherwise.

    377. PresidentPaul! says:

      391…senate races

    378. Scooterboy says:

      Those Florida numbers are pretty remarkable. It appears the Trump ground game is paying off in Florida. I hope the Rust Belt ground game is just as good.

    379. jason says:

      At some point, you run out of places to have rallies”

      PA is a big state.

    380. Wes says:

      In North Carolina’s chief bellwether county, New Hanover, Republicans widened their ballot lead over Democrats by 773 votes to 854. Republicans are now a little over 500 ballots behind Indies in early voting turnout.

      Although a GOP-leaning county, New Hanover has been the state’s consummate swing county.

      If Indies remain a GOP-aligned group as they have traditionally been in NC politics, this is good news for Republicans.

      I expect Trump and Tillis to carry the county and the state. Unfortunately Roy Cooper, as a largely powerless and inoffensive Governor, is likely to benefit from countervailing winds and defeat Dan Forest.

    381. Stonewall DW says:

      388 – yeah, think this through…

      Voter says, “yeah, I love the fact that my job was saved by Trump, and didn’t get eliminated, and I know that voting for Biden will leave me standing on a street-corner with a cardboard sign begging for food and shelter, but wow, Biden was born in Scranton!

      So I will vote for him, and take pride in the local connection while I hold my cardboard sign.”

    382. WizardofCozz says:

      The rally schedule tells you where they think they are competitive at. They aren’t going to MN, but are going to WI, MI, and PA. They have to believe they are closest there. Also, I agree that GA and IA are all about the Senate. I think FL is about getting out the vote and pushing that margin. The larger the margin on election night, the better chance of not depressing any voters out west. Probably overthinking things, but just my thoughts.

    383. Tina says:

      He is doing 3 pa rallies tomorrow

      And will likely do something on the morning of 11/3.

    384. jason says:

      Pence in AZ today.

      FLAGSTAFF, Ariz. (AP) — Vice President Mike Pence is planning rallies in Arizona on Friday, hoping to appeal to voters in counties that President Donald Trump lost in 2016.

      “The visits to the Flagstaff and Tucson airports come as both presidential candidates key in on battleground states ahead of Tuesday’s election.

      Voters in Coconino and Pima counties supported Hillary Clinton in the last presidential election, but Arizona overall helped send Trump to the White House.”

    385. jason says:

      Heh…

      Michael Moore Warns Dems on Trump: ‘If He Thinks He’s Going to Win, Then I Think He’s Going to Win!’

    386. Stonewall DW says:

      Oh my. Its a free-fall

      Gap in FL now 138894, with GOP now up to over 67,000 remaining super-voters.

      Gap continues to narrow, while Dems burning up super-voters at a higher rate!!

    387. Tina says:

      There is a large anti lockdown protest in Naples Italy.

      Not a conservative part of itsky, just saying.

    388. Wes says:

      What do you expect the final margin in VA to be, DW?

    389. Smack says:

      All Early Voting – Florida
      ————
      Oct 30th / 12:00pm

      DEM: 39.79%

      GOP: 38.05%

      Final 2016 FL All Early Voting
      DEM: 39.80%
      GOP: 38.34%

    390. Slowjoe says:

      Voter says, “yeah, I love the fact that my job was saved by Trump, and didn’t get eliminated, and I know that voting for Biden will leave me standing on a street-corner with a cardboard sign begging for food and shelter, but wow, Biden was born in Scranton!”

      That is a lie.

      I will send you to coding school.

    391. Michelle Obama vs the DNC buffet table says:

      Say … What’s Biden Doing In Minnesota Today?

      Minnesota? Four days before an election? In perhaps the strongest sign that this state has become a battleground, both presidential candidates will make appearances today — despite the state’s record streak as a Democratic stronghold going back to 1976.

      The Star Tribune notices it, too:

      The Trump campaign started pushing resources into Minnesota early in the presidential cycle, building out a campaign infrastructure the likes of which Minnesota Republicans said they have not seen here for years, if ever. The Biden campaign was slower to invest in Minnesota as he worked to lock up the Democratic nomination, but recent months have seen his campaign making up lost ground.

      https://hotair.com/archives/ed-morrissey/2020/10/30/say-whats-biden-minnesota-today/

      Ruh roh…

    392. jason says:

      Our future looks bleak.

      “The poll was conducted by Mclaughlin & Associate in conjunction with Yale University’s conservative William F. Buckley Program. It surveyed a nationally representative sample of 800 college students on a wide array of issues, from the coronavirus to race in America.

      One key finding from the poll was that 64 percent of college students agreed that “the recent rioting and looting is justified to some degree.” Only 28 percent disagreed with this assessment.

    393. Pitchaboy says:

      AZ D plus 26k. Over

    394. Tina says:

      Lol

      Mark Noonan
      @Mark_E_Noonan
      ·
      29m
      Replying to
      @LarrySchweikart
      Yeah, but that’s all GOPers voting Biden. I’m sure Nate and Josh will tell you. Because we all know that if you register Republican, you do it for Joe!*

      *This is seriously what I’m seeing on Expert Twitter today. These people have lost it.

    395. John says:

      Speaking of Michael Moore…didn’t he say to take the national polls and cut Biden’s lead in half?
      That said, I think at this stage it is time to move past the national polls and just concentrate on the EC since the last two Republican presidents had to rely on them to pull off wins (2000/2016)
      And speaking of critical swing states I noticed that Trump is not going back to Arizona? Nevada, I can understand, but Arizona?
      Interesting……

    396. Tina says:

      Waterford Township, Michigan Rally to start soon.

    397. Todd McCain says:

      Definitely looking like a 50K plus net day in Florida.

    398. Stonewall DW says:

      Wes, I laid out my thinking on VA a couple of days ago.

      In short, the antics of Lord Northam and the dems, put us under the burden of HUGE tax hikes, and their gun grabbing laws. Then the fact is in 2016 Trump left huge number of votes on the table. This was a state full of Never-Trumpers and Trump lost by 5.3 point gap. I personally know of maybe as many as a dozen never Trumpers who now will gladly vote for him.

      I have personally canvassed neighborhoods, for instance one that went 51/42 for Trump over Hillary, and now its 7 to 1 for Trump. Easily.

      The rural areas will definitely be even stronger for Trump. And the Hispanic support will be up, and AA turnout will be depressed in places like Richmond, Portsmouth, and Norfolk.

      The problem is, the state has drifted further left in the last four years, and with all the math I could come up with, Trump still ends up a couple points short.

      It would take a larger national shift right here at the end to pull in VA for Trump.

      If Trump wins VA, he didn’t need it.

      If Trump falls just a few points short in VA, he wins NC easily, as well as the election.

    399. Scooterboy says:

      Emerson Polling saying that they will be releasing 14 State Polls on Sunday.

    400. Stonewall DW says:

      407 – can I be sent to cunity college instead?

    401. JeffS says:

      I see Trump coming to Traverse City, Mi on Monday. We are only a city of 19,000 but serve an area of over 150,000. He’s pulling out all the stops in Michigan!

    402. michael corleone says:

      Poor Ralston – GOP won mail and in-person vote in Washoe yesterday. Countywide gap currently at 2355. Was 1000 to the Ds at end of early voting in 2016. Very good chance the gap is smaller than 1000 at the end of the day today. The GOP gained 1455 votes yesterday and the last Friday of early voting usually has higher turnout.

    403. Stonewall DW says:

      137575 is now the gap, and Dems continue to burn their super-voters at a faster rate!

    404. Slowjoe says:

      407 – can I be sent to cunity college instead?”

      If you insist on trying to be re-educated where you want to instead of where you are told, you will have to be re-educated.

    405. Tina says:

      Jack Posobiec VOTE Flag of United States
      @JackPosobiec
      · 16m
      Searches for Hunter Biden now set to exceed searches for Wikileaks in 2016

    406. Stonewall DW says:

      Marist is all in too…

      North Carolina – Biden +6!!!

    407. Gil says:

      PresidentPaul! says:
      October 30, 2020 at 6:29 am
      https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/16/supreme-court-will-hear-trump-appeal-to-exclude-undocumented-immigrants-from-census-count.html

      Supreme Court will hear Trump appeal to exclude undocumented immigrants from census count

      If the courts side with Trump and do exclude undocumented immigrants from the census it will be a huge gain for the Republicans.

      If you take out the undocumented immigrants from the census, Democratic leaning states will lose 18 seats in the House of Representatives. Those 18 seats will go to states that lean or are Republican. Sorry can not find the link about it being 18 seats.

      It would mean retaking control of the House in 2022 a lot easier and the electoral college vote in 2024 and beyond so much easier. I will give you an example to consider. Under the new way, I will use two states and just assign all 18 votes instead of going to all the trouble of doing multiple states but the results will be the same. Imagine if California only gets 37 electoral votes and Florida gets 47 electoral votes.

      The stakes of this Supreme Court decision are huge and I like our odds with the current Supreme Court.

    408. Tina says:

      Lol

      Tom McGuire
      @TomMcGuire_12
      · 25m
      Replying to @CottoGottfried
      Things we never thought we’d say in 2020..
      Jack Nicklaus
      Lil Wayne
      Lil Pump and
      Brett Favre
      Walk into a voting booth and they all vote for the same guy…@realDonaldTrump

    409. Stonewall DW says:

      424 – good one to watch.

    410. hugh says:

      other than the marist poll and a bunch of others rooted fantasy. With the EV getting better since 3 days ago with yesterday being huge, why would predictit swing from trump over in the mid 50s to biden in the low 50s. does anyone pay attention to the actual votes?

    411. John says:

      New Ras NC poll just released….Trump gained a point…now +2, 48-46%

    412. Stonewall DW says:

      Forgive me for forgetting the most important number in that MARIST poll of NC (Trump 46 / Biden 52).

      2016 final NC poll by MARIST:

      Hillary 47
      Trump 41
      Johnson 8

      and their two-way matchup poll was

      Hillary 50
      Trump 44

    413. mnw says:

      I’m sure Team Orange knows what it’s doing, & a helluva lot more than I do, but… do they really need to spend one of their precious few remaining rallies on FL at this point? With Dade County looking so bleak for the DEMs, & all that?

      Risks are going to have to be taken SOMEWHERE. I think it would be an intelligent risk, based on EV in FL,, to skip that final rally there. Add another one in the upper Midwest some place instead.

      Again, EVERY choice at this point comes with risk. I’d take my chances on standing pat in FL.

    414. Michelle Obama vs the DNC buffet table says:

      Good read…

      How Trump Could Shock the World Again
      The president’s campaign is behind in polls and fundraising, but could still pull out a victory.

      Certainly, the chaos candidate isn’t making the job any easier. At a rally last week, Trump told the people of Erie, Pennsylvania, that he’d rather be somewhere other than the city they call home. Still, the president’s reelection campaign is doing a few things that might work. Here are four.

      * Trying to expand the map
      * Microtargeting Latino voters
      * Shoring up evangelical voters
      * Holding rallies to recruit new voters

      At Trump rallies, campaign aides have been checking to make sure supporters are registered to vote. (Biden largely chose to forgo big rallies because of the pandemic). In Florida, the Democratic registration advantage is down to about 134,000 voters, out of a total of more than 14 million. By contrast, in the 2000 election, Democrats’ registration lead in Florida was 379,000. In Pennsylvania, Republicans have cut the Democrats’ registration lead since 2016 from 916,000 to 687,000, out of 9 million registered voters. That’s not a trivial difference. Four years ago, Trump won Pennsylvania by just 44,000 votes.

    415. Stonewall DW says:

      431 – honestly, I think running up the score in FL is important. Remember 2016, Florida was really first place where pundits started to say, uh-oh. Virginia was there too, but they could rightly say, well, its all rural stuff, and that was true.

      But at 7:50 EDT: CNN’s John King looks at FL and finds Clinton is running ahead of Obama’s 2012 percentage in Broward County. He looks statewide and after an update, Clinton now leads in FL by 50.1% to 47.1%, her largest lead so far.

      Then at 7:53 EDT: CNN’s Sara Murray at the Trump campaign says sources there are concerned about independent voters in FL.

      Then at 7:54 EDT: CNN’s Jeff Zeleny at the Clinton campaign says sources there are increasingly confident about their chances in FL, because they see Clinton out-performing Obama in key counties.

      Then at 7:55 EDT: CNN shows momentum toward Clinton based on her growing 49.9% to 47.3% lead in FL, a 171,793 vote advantage with 72% of the vote counted, and NC where she has taken a 21,996 vote lead, 49.7% to 48%, with 28% of the precincts reporting.

      Then at 7:56 EDT: CNN’s John King says the FL map looks like the 2012 map. Clinton has met her goals in Southeast Florida.

      Then at 8:05 EDT: CNN’s Dana Bash reports hearing from a Republican source that their modeling appears to show them that Trump will not win FL.

      FULL STOP…notice the difference at 8:07 EDT:

      Wolf Blitzer at CNN expresses surprise to learn from John King that Clinton’s lead in FL has reduced to only 50,000 with 79% reported, as the vote in the western panhandle is only now starting to come in. King reassures that the small rural counties may not produce many votes.

      Then at 8:13 EDT: Wolf Blitzer on CNN interrupts John King with the news that Clinton’s lead in FL is cut to 16,000 votes, 48.6% to 48.4% with 85% of precincts reporting; King says Trump is doing what he needs to do in rural areas, something he never mentioned earlier.

      Then at 8:16 EDT: Clinton retakes lead in FL as shown on CNN’s map as once again Wolf Blitzer interrupts King with the news she is ahead again by 4000 votes

      Finally at 8:28 EDT: CNN reports that Trump’s lead is at 48.8% to 48.1% in FL where the raw vote lead has grown to 63,297 with 91% reported. Blitzer calls this lead ‘sort-of impressive.’

      And of course it just went on from there until FLORIDA was called for Trump.

      So you can see the advantage here, if Trump can run up the score in Florida, and grab the winning narrative much earlier. That will depress Dems voting in other states. College kids playing video games, will find yet another reason to not bother if they hear Slow Joe getting clobbered in Florida.

    416. mnw says:

      432 AkulaKS

      That was an interesting read. I never heard of that analyst before, but he’s persuasive.

    417. Boog says:

      Dems pushed hard years ago to make early voting more of a thing. They are now probably ruing those initiatives. With a dud of a candidate like Biden, the plan had to be a very tight control of the narrative: suffocation of negative news stories, unabashed big tech censorship, and the fabrication of fraudulent polls showing insurmountable biden leads.

      However, all of this myth-creation has been exploded by the actual votes. The real vote count numbers for early voting in places like FL, AZ and NV make it clear that something red is brewing. And the internet is forever and everywhere, and people can access and see that information for themselves. It is why you are seeing all of the stories in the last couple of days about rising dem panic, and emergency calls for voter mobilization by the dems. No need to even bother with the fraudulent polls now, the real vote numbers don’t lie.

    418. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      Rump canceled his victory party in Florida and will watch the returns from the White House. What does that tell you?

    419. jaichind says:

      432. One area of disagreement is he seems to think that Trump will lose ME-2 and but win NE-2. It is much more likely to be the other way around.

    420. Stonewall DW says:

      Stunning. The FL gap now just 136113, and Dems continue to burn up their super-voters at a faster clip.

    421. jaichind says:

      427. My impression is predict is goes almost completely on polls. They seems to fact in some shy Trump vote factor that seems to be applied evenly to all vote averages. While there has been a few pro-Trump polls a few days ago there have been a lot more pro-Biden polls last couple of days ergo a shift toward Biden.

    422. boomtapp says:

      New thread. New discussion. New fun.

    423. mnw says:

      433 buffet table:

      “Biden chose to forego big rallies because of the pandemic.”

      Coffee spew!

      There’re some OTHER reasons Biden “foregoes big rallies”:

      1) He can’t draw flies– even DEAD flies flee from Joe Biden;

      AND

      2) He couldn’t get 250 people to listen to him even if he did a joint appearance with Mick Jagger;

      AND

      3) If Biden scheduled a rally at USP-Terre Haute, inmates with less than three months left to serve would STILL try to escape the night before.

    424. BayernFan says:

      NFL great Jay Cutler has also endorsed Trump.

    425. Gordon Allen says:

      There I was feeling fairly good,and someone said jay cutler endorsed Trump. Ugh. Trump is doomed.

    426. CG says:

      Cutler knows all turning something over to the opponent.

    427. Bitterlaw says:

      I remember when Corey said I should like Cutler because he is a diabetic. Ummmm, no.

    428. CG says:

      I don’t believe I said that. I think that was the reason you said you didn’t like him.

      If anything, you should like Cutler because you are both a-holes.

    429. GF says:

      209- Is there a link for the IBD/TIPP write up? I am mobile and cannot search well. Thanks!

    430. Todd McCain says:

      GOP already netted 5K in Florida so far this morning; I think getting below the 88K the DEMS had in 2016 is a certainty.