Trump : 187
Biden : 351
Click here

GOP : 48
DEM : 50
IND : 2
Click here


    Two Polls Show Trump Ahead of Biden and One Polls Shows Biden Ahead of Trump in NC

    We have two new polls that show Donald Trump slightly ahead in North Carolina. They come from Rasmussen Reports and Cardinal Point Analytics.

    Donald Trump (R-inc) 48%
    Joe Biden (D) 47%

    Donald Trump (R-inc) 48%
    Joe Biden (D) 46%

    At the US Senate level, they do split and go in two different directions.

    Cal Cunningham (D) 47%
    Thom Tillis (R-inc) 44%

    Thom Tillis (R-inc) 46%
    Cal Cunningham (D) 41%

    The Rasmussen poll was done October 28-29 among 800 likely voters. The Cardinal Point poll was done October 27-28 among 750 likely voters. At the Presidential level, these two polls are being contradicting by a new poll from NBC News and Marist College which gives a healthy lead to both Biden and Cunningham.

    Joe Biden (D) 52%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 46%

    Cal Cunningham (D) 53%
    Thom Tillis (R-inc) 43%

    This poll was done October 25-28 among 800 likely voters.

    Posted by Dave at 1:35 pm
    Filed under: General | Comments (533)

    533 Responses to “Two Polls Show Trump Ahead of Biden and One Polls Shows Biden Ahead of Trump in NC”

    1. Tina says:

      No way Biteme wins NC

    2. Gil says:

      PresidentPaul! says:
      October 30, 2020 at 6:29 am

      Supreme Court will hear Trump appeal to exclude undocumented immigrants from census count

      If the courts side with Trump and do exclude undocumented immigrants from the census it will be a huge gain for the Republicans.

      If you take out the undocumented immigrants from the census, Democratic leaning states will lose 18 seats in the House of Representatives. Those 18 seats will go to states that lean or are Republican. Sorry can not find the link about it being 18 seats.

      It would mean retaking control of the House in 2022 a lot easier and the electoral college vote in 2024 and beyond so much easier. I will give you an example to consider. Under the new way, I will use two states and just assign all 18 votes instead of going to all the trouble of doing multiple states but the results will be the same. Imagine if California only gets 37 electoral votes and Florida gets 47 electoral votes.

      The stakes of this Supreme Court decision are huge and I like our odds with the current Supreme Court.

    3. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      Rump has canceled his election night party in Florida and will be watching returns in DC instead. Sounds like they’ve come to terms with what’s going to happen.

    4. Gil says:

      I grew in Robeson County, North Carolina. Trump was in Lumberton, NC, our county seat a few days ago. He gave his support for recognizing the Lumbee Indians federally.

      The county is about 1/3 white, 1/3 indian, and 1/3 black. Very racially diverse county.

      Robeson County was biggest % wise victory in NC for Democrats for years. That has changed over the years until Trump actually won the county 2016. I am still friends with a lot of people back home and many of them have drifted to the Republicans over the years. With Trump’s recognition, he will win Robeson County handily this year.

    5. marc says:

      Hmm I wonder which one David believes…

    6. Sheeple,Jr. says:

      #3- D–khead
      You’ve been warned about making things up.
      The reason why he is staying in DC is because the Antifa folks like yourself have promised nationwide,violent protests, which are more manageable at Central Control in Washington.

    7. Stonewall DW says:

      And thanks Dave W for remembering to point out that four years ago the final Marist poll of NC had Hillary +6 over Trump.

    8. dblaikie says:

      Gator your lack of intelligence amazes me. What difference does it make where Trump has his party? I believe most Presidents have watched the returns come in at the White House.

    9. Smack says:

      All Early Voting – Florida

      Oct 30th / 12:00pm

      DEM: 39.74%

      GOP: 38.07%

      Final 2016 FL All Early Voting
      DEM: 39.80%
      GOP: 38.34%

    10. GatorBJ says:

      Biden just changed his concession speech plans. He will now give it from a kindergarten playground.

    11. Stonewall DW says:

      8 – I can’t stop laughing. I don’t know which is funnier,

      BIDEN: “I’ll lead an effective strategy to mobilize truinernaturalumdaprezure.”

      or the fact you can hear one voice in the background cheer at this.

      There you go, your reason to vote FOR Biden. We have had a horrible lack of truinernaturalumdaprezure in our country, and Biden is going to FINALLY mobilize truinernaturalumdaprezure when every president before him has failed!

    12. JeffS says:

      GatorBJ- How big a fireworks display has Biden ordered up for the big night? Bigger than Madam Von I’vefallenandIcan’tgetup’s?

    13. Sheeple,Jr. says:

      He has always been a classy guy!

      Hockey legend Bobby Orr endorses President Trump for reelection | The Post Millennial – News, Politics, Culture, and Lifestyle

    14. Stonewall DW says:

      FL gap now 134405 and now Dems burning their super-voters at even a faster clip!!

    15. BayernFan says:

      NFL great Jay Cutler has also endorsed Trump.

    16. OHIO Joe says:

      “Hockey legend Bobby Orr endorses President Trump for reelection” great! That will balance out LeBron James.

    17. jason says:

      NFL great Jay Cutler has also endorsed Trump.”

      Heh, Corey hardest hit.

    18. MrVito says:

      “Heh, Corey hardest hit.”

      Or is it Trump hardest hit?

    19. MrVito says:

      Palm Beach is now GOP advantage in EV over 2016.

    20. mnw says:

      (from last thread)

      Michelle Obama buffet table:

      “Biden decided to forego big rallies because of the pandemic.”

      Coffee spew!

      Here are a few OTHER reasons Joe foregoes “big” rallies:

      1) He can’t draw flies– even DEAD flies flee from Joe Biden;

      2) Biden couldn’t get 250 people to come out to see him if he did a joint appearance with Mick Jagger;

      3) If Biden scheduled a rally at USP-Terre Haute, even inmates with less than three months to serve would try to escape the night before.

    21. jason says:

      Sounds like they’ve come to terms with what’s going to happen.”

      So, troll, since you know what will happen and there is nothing more to be discussed, why are you still here?

    22. lisab says:

      Elon Musk’s yacht is so elon

      looks like a bond villan’s hideout

    23. lisab says:

      so what will be the first state to report on tuesday that shows us how things are going?


    24. jason says:

      “Heh, Corey hardest hit.”

      Or is it Trump hardest hit?”

      You don’t look gift horses in the mouth.’

      Not even loser nags like Cutler.

    25. Marv says:

      #29 lisab,

      The rural VA vote.

    26. hugh says:

      At 12:03 trump up 35K votes. Will he get to 60K today?

    27. boomtapp says:

      @ 28 – no way I’m clicking that link.

    28. jason says:

      Don Lemon has dropped his Trump supporting friends.


      “How much does CNN’s Don Lemon hate Trump supporters? He equated them to addicts that he had to “get rid of” from his life.
      “I just had to get rid of a lot of people in my life because sometimes you have to let them go. I think they have to hit rock bottom like an addict. Right?”

    29. GatorBJ says:



      Survey Monkey
      Oct 1-28

      Biden 70% (+41)
      Trump 28%

      Last poll:

      Biden 69% (+40)
      Trump 28%


    30. jason says:

      Don’t ever click on any of Bunu’s links.

    31. jason says:

      So Biden has gained a pt in MA?

      We is screwed…

    32. Phil says:

      So I guess we can forget about Massachusetts.

      Well, sh*t

    33. BRENT says:

      FL-GOPers just scored a 500K lead with in-person early voting. Their exact number is now 501,678.

    34. MrVito says:

      Ocala has flipped to GOP advantage in the early vote over 2016

    35. George says:

      At rally….Trump says the Dems are not getting the numbers they thought they were going to get. Giant red wave is coming. He’s very upbeat and energized.

      Now Rove is saying Dem numbers are down in Michigan and Florida – not what they expected. Donna Brazil’s gives a very muted response.

    36. Bitterlaw says:

      Breaking News – Jay Cutler endorses Trump. Will miss rest of the election season due to a sprained thumb.

    37. LewisS says:

      For the FL in person early vote, Republicans are increasing their voting % advantage over Ds. Rs had a 13% advantage earlier this week (46%-33%) in in-person votes cast, and now its about a 14% advantage (46.35 – 32.40).

      I’m guessing this carries through to election day where Rs outvote Ds 46% to 32% with 22% Is.

    38. hugh says:

      We are killing it today in FL and not depleting our supervoter advantage at all. My wife is near our voting site by coral ridge for those familiar with lauderdale which is in a red part of broward and she says it is a total zoo. Trump folks all around in the parking lot.

    39. jason says:

      I am disappointed about MA. Trump might only get 49 states.

    40. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      If Rump thought he had a chance, he would be having his election night even in Florida. The only surprising thing is that he canceled it now and didn’t wait until Monday. Must be bleak!

    41. jason says:

      Breaking News – Jay Cutler endorses Trump. Will miss rest of the election season due to a sprained thumb.”

      It is not his fault, however.

      If his wife had taken out the garbage herself, he would not have sprained his thumb doing it.

      And because of her, he will now wear his usual “I just ate a sh-t sandwich” look for the remainder of the year.

    42. BRENT says:

      Larry Schweikart
      AZ: Rs just slashed the D lead in half.
      Ds +26,496

    43. BRENT says:

      In Florida, with combined in-person early voting and vote-by-mail returns, the Dem lead is now down to 138,894. This is a remarkable decline seeing as it is not yet 1:00 PM ET.

    44. jason says:

      ought he had a chance, he would be having his election night even in Florida. The only surprising thing is that he canceled it now and didn’t wait until Monday. Must be bleak!”

      And yet you are still trolling here.

    45. CG says:

      I said on the other threat that Jay Cutler knows all about turning something over to the opponent.

      He must appreciate Trump’s “Don’t Care” attitude on the pandemic.

      Trump did not cancel Election Night in Florida, but at the Trump Hotel in DC where invitations were going out to supporters to join him. No party to be held. Easy to see why.

    46. hugh says:

      Texas surpassed its total 2016 voting count today. GOPers, per TargetSmart, also advanced to a 16-point lead over Dems, which was the high-water mark they reached a few days ago. TX-GOPers subsequently receded to a 15-pont lead, but that is now history.

      what is all this bs about tx.

    47. hugh says:

      cg. stupid comment. it will be at the whitehouse. its not safe anywhere else in dc after he wins.

    48. eriepa says:

      Win or lose ,future SCOTUS Stacy Abrams will be at Biden Headquarters for the Buffet.

    49. lisab says:

      I am disappointed about MA. Trump might only get 49 states.

      my home town provincetown, ma

      voted something like 92% hillary to 6% trump


    50. jason says:

      Decades of leftist academia.

      Democrats prefer France to the US and Cuba to Israel.


    51. GF says:

      Is there a link for the IBD/TIPP write up people talked about earlier this morning? I am mobile and cannot search well. Thanks!

    52. jason says:

      He must appreciate Trump’s “Don’t Care” attitude on the pandemic.”


      What drivel. Straight out of MSNBC.

    53. Smack says:

      All Early Voting – Florida

      Oct 30th / 1:55pm

      DEM: 3,210,267 39.70%

      GOP: 3080,170 38.09%

      Final 2016 FL All Early Voting
      DEM: 39.80%
      GOP: 38.34%

    54. Tina says:

      Larry Schweikart
      In ALL voting (VBM + IPEV) Ds
      -9 in Palm Beach from 2016
      -22.5 in Miami Dade
      -14 Orange
      -6 Hillsborough
      -3 in Duval, Henry

    55. JeffS says:

      @56- Talk about packing the court!

    56. eriepa says:

      63- Yea Gator said yesterday that she was a future justice-I guess thats what the Dems mean when they want to expand the SCOTUS.

    57. Stacey Abrams says:

      Did someone say BUFFET? I’ll go put on my sweatpants.

    58. NYCmike says:

      “CG” back again! I am more confident with each appearance he makes. The amount of hatred in his heart for the Republican candidate is a sight to behold. May G-D have mercy on his soul!

    59. NYCmike says:

      It would be nice to see “CG”‘s 270ToWin map from 4 years ago to see if he made any changes to it……..that would show how far gone he is.

    60. Tina says:

      ames Rosen
      BREAKING: Tony Bobulinski says the team of
      agents who interviewed him for five hours last Friday were “taking extensive notes and asked multiple questions” about Hunter Biden’s texts on Burisma and Ukraine. More to come soon on this feed and your

    61. mnw says:

      66 NYC

      Exactly how I feel whenever GBJ decides to dispute NC with Wes.

    62. Stonewall DW says:


    63. Waingro says:

      Saw someone on Baris periscope comments say Trump is “getting crushed in the markets” today. Is that true?

    64. Waingro says:

      Trump in the lead in Kenosha in preliminary Baris WI poll numbers.

    65. Greymarch says:

      ANYONE who thinks they can figure out who is going to win this election by looking at the polls is an utter fool. Wissing posts two polls showing Trump winning NC, then a media-sponsored poll (NBC) showing Trump down by 8 in NC! Someone is lying! All of them are probably lying. All the pollsters (left and right) are putting their thumb on the scale.

      Best I can tell, the EV is gonna be damn, damn close. Biden will win the popular vote 4-6 points, but who cares? That’s like gaining more total yards in a football game, yet losing the game. It’s all about the EVs.

    66. Greymarch says:

      Trump scheduled another stop in PA. Will appear in Scranton. Good.

      Trump should park his ass in PA on Sunday, Monday, and dont travel anywhere else those two days. PA DECIDES THE ENTIRE 2020 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.

    67. chris says:

      Trump holds all his states from 2016 and has a 50/50 chance of adding MN and/or NV.

    68. Stonewall DW says:


    69. Tina says:

      Trump is in Kenosha, WI on Monday.

    70. jason says:

      Yesterday France had 50k cases, with 1/5th the US population.

      Per capita it would be like the US having 250k cases in one day.

      Did anyone say Macron has a “doesn’t care” attitude.

      Yesterday, IL had the second highest number of cases in the US. Does Fat Pritzker, who never saw a shutdown he didn’t love, have “doesn’t care” attitude?

      Corey as usual is full of sh-t.

    71. Tina says:

      They are expediting the review of the China virus vaccines, per market watch,

    72. Marv says:

      #75 Chris

      I’m in agreement with you, except maybe slightly better chance than 50/50 in MN & NV. Also an outside chance of closing within a million in the popular vote (NY and CA are the problems)

    73. Greymarch says:

      #29: LisaB, there are certain precincts in Indiana, which are east-coast time and report their results before almost anyone in the country. In 2012, Obama won one of those precincts when no one expected him to, and early in the night the pros knew Romney was in deep trouble.

      Look for quick-reporting precincts from east-coast states, and compare the results to what Trump/Hilary received in 2016. If Trump does better in those precincts than in 2020, that’s gonna give you a good idea of what will happen the rest of the night. If Biden does better than Hilary did in 2016 in the early reporting precincts, same goes for Biden.

      GA’s rural areas take too long to report. GA wont be reliable.

    74. Tina says:

      au ng
      #FL #EarlyVoting D lead at 126k, down by 37k since 08:30. Still heading south with perhaps 10k more to go.

    75. hugh says:

      the vote dumps in florida have caught up with actual time. Currently a 41K lead, should finish at 50K for the day. another blowout day. Polk still not posting.

      Greymarch. So the pollsters who got 2016 right are putting their thumb on the scale. What evidence do you have? We have lots of history with the msm and college polls. I think it highly unfair to compare the polls showing trump at levels similar to 2016 with polls showing biden doing far better than 2016. BTW a much worse candidate than clinton, which says a lot.

    76. jason says:

      Saw someone on Baris periscope comments say Trump is “getting crushed in the markets” today. Is that true?”

      He is at 38% on Predicit, down 1.

      Biden 68% no change.

      Trump is at 41%(NC) in PA, 46% (+1) in AZ at Predictit. 46% in NC (-3).

    77. JeffS says:

      Big quandary for Stacey Abrams- Will she accept Biden’s SCOTUS appointment or remain as governor? Tough spot to be in.

    78. jason says:

      Forgot FL

      58% (+1).

    79. chris says:

      I’ve stopped looking a the FL numbers as the outcome is no longer in doubt. What I’m interested in now is who takes the majority in the House.

    80. hugh says:

      it started on predictit two days ago. The better the early voting gets for trump in NC the more the morons bet biden up. I was convinced its a few guys trying to keep the narrative and it may be. You can see on the hourly betting trump slowly does better than there is an hour with huge betting and starts over. Also, reading the comments the dems believe these polls. they 100% believe marist. no consideration for the EV other than they have more votes. its crazy. Lots of money to be made just getting in and out in NC. similarly in MI where by all appearance trump is over performing its number for biden is much higher than the number for trump in FL.

    81. Justin says:

      What is Baris showing in WI?

    82. RuRu says:

      This entire election will rotate on the question of:

      Have white suburban voters and independents significantly deserted Trump.

      That is THE question.

      With all the data we have – I still don’t know of any way to answer that question until the vote boxes are cracked open.

      Most (not all) major polls say ‘Yes’ – a bigly shift away from Trump (and it can’t be made up other places). That is the way (perhaps the only way) one gets to +10 or more for Biden.

      Other than anecdotal conversations with one’s friends – is there any other way to gage that question??

    83. eriepa says:

      85-Food for thought for Stacy

    84. RuRu says:

      Trump final campaign assault in order:

      IA (WI BORDER!)

    85. Smack says:

      All Early Voting – Florida

      Oct 30th / 2:45pm

      DEM: 3,217,215 39.66%

      GOP: 3,091,044 38.11%

      Final 2016 FL All Early Voting
      DEM: 39.80%
      GOP: 38.34%

      Lack of ground game for Biden will be the story of the Election night.

    86. Gordon Allen says:

      Why is the assumption made that Democrat’s will be motivated to exceed their PV in California,New York, Illinois etc? The Democrat’s there are not popular,and their population ( Democrat) terrified to vote because of Covd, particularly as their votes are irrelevant to the outcome. Part of the absurd overrating of the Democrat’s in the polls be is that they’ll exceed their margins in 2016. They won’t. Nor will they in Washington or Oregon. It doesn’t make a difference in the EV but I’m fairly sure that won’t match their 2016 margins

    87. Gov. Stacy Abrams (D-GA) says:

      91- Did somebody say “Food?”

    88. Hugh says:

      Ruru. I’m still looking for these mythical suburban voters that are abandoning Trump. What a crock. No evidence whatsoever blah blah blah

    89. ruru says:

      Hugh – I somewhat agree. I live in the Burbs and the voters I know that will change their minds are moving from Trump to Biden or Trump to not voting. I think the Burbs have moved somewhat away from Trump – that is my anecdotal!! read.

    90. Gordon Allen says:

      Ruru. Sure. Ask if any Trump voters you know in 2016 will vote for Biden. They can’t possibly reach the claimed margins,with black and hispanics stronger for Trump than in 2016 without significant numbers of his 46% in 2016 leaving him. I see NO evidence of that except in these ” polls”.

    91. jaichind says:

      Bloomberg news reports:
      Senior officials on Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden’s campaign are increasingly worried about insufficient Black and Latino voter turnout in key states like Florida and Pennsylvania with only four days until the election, according to people familiar with the matter.

    92. Hugh says:

      You’re about the first one on this board to express that opinion. Talk about it all the time. Most of us are having the opposite experience. I don’t know a single Trump voter who’s changing. I know for sure did not vote for Trump you’re voting for him this time.

    93. Hugh says:

      I meant to say I know four people switching to trump

    94. jaichind says:

      Almost all people I know at work or neighbors claimed to be for Clinton or third party in 2016. I know for a face some of them were hidden Trump voters. This time around a couple 2016 third party voters are coming out for Trump but the rest are still for Biden. I know some of them are hidden Trump voters but it is hard to estimate if that has gone up or down since 2016.

    95. gameboy says:


      I live in the Philly burbs….can probably walk to the home of the infamous Bitterlaw from where I live. I have no knowledge of anyone going from Trump to Biden or Trump to not voting. As a matter of fact I see Trump picking up a few votes. Namely my two sons. Once a recent grad of Villanova and the other a student at Temple. They have both registered for the first time and will be voting Trump!!!

    96. RuRu says:

      Appreciate the perspective guys.

      Here’s hoping!

    97. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      I am not aware of anyone who voted for Trump in 2016 moving to Biden. Its more the other way around. The core Trump voters still seem committed to him. Know people who did not vote for Trump in 2016 now supporting him. On this board most the NeverTrump posters have moved to Trump.

    98. dblaikie says:

      There is one thing that this early voting can show us, at least in a number of states. For instance, the Nevada figures show an election that is going to be close at the very least. In fact advantage right now is for Trump because the GOP is at this point running up big numbers in the in person vote. There is no way it is going to 6 points like Sienna Claims. Throw it out. And then there is the Monmouth Poll that claims Biden is ahead by 6 in Florida. Well the early vote is well chronicled here. Is there anyone, besides the low intelligence troll, that actually believes that? The factual data of actual votes is making a mockery of these polls!!

    99. BRENT says:


    100. Stonewall DW says:


    101. BRENT says:

      ALSO the lockdowns,no school,no college or university is also hurting democrat turnout (young voters) it was bad enough this group was already unreliable as a voting block but add in a few xtra layers and poof they disappeared

    102. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      A lot of people I know who are voting for Trump this time will not admit it publically, being this is California. I do believe a lot of individuals who do not like Trump, but did not vote in 2016, will vote this time.

    103. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      If you can’t acknowledge who you voted for, you know it’s a problem.

    104. Big E says:

      Suburban vote will vary from urban center to urban center. Has Trump lost the Los Angles and New York City suburbs. Probably. Has lost the Detriot or Milwaukee suburbs. Probably not. Has he lost some of the Houston and Dallas suburbs. Maybe to some small degree. We will have to watch each state to see. I would Hazzard to guess that whatever he lost in any suburb is made up by an increase in the black and Hispanic vote. In addition he will see an increase in the rural vote. Probably why we are seeing him +2 in Trafalgar polls instead of even or down 1 like in 2016.

    105. dblaikie says:

      Here is something that I know puts fear in the hearts of the Trolls and talking heads like John Ralston. These early votes only identify by Party. What if the African American vote is 15% or more for Trump? What if he is doing better as many claim with Hispanics? Those Florida and North Carolina numbers that everyone is analyzing is even worse if that is true. I think panic began to set in right after the second debate. The truth is not even the press can hide it.

    106. jaichind says:

      One metric which, it seems, will be a tie

      From a 2016 Bloomberg article:


      The idea is if S&P 500 returns from end of July to end of Oct in an election is positive then the incumbent party wins and if negative the opposition party wins. In 2016 it ended up being -2.2%

      With markets just closed the 7/31-10/31 S&P 500 return ends up being ….. -0.03% or basically 0. BTW, a tiebreaker would be the Dow which is +0.28% go give the narrow edge to Trump.

      All day today the market was down a lot and only in the last 5 minutes did the market surge to get the S&P 500 to be basically 0 between 7/31-10/31

    107. ShieldHero says:

      I disagree that Nevada or Florida shows that this will be close. What they do show is that neither Ds or Rs are sitting the election out. However, three things could still happen, in order of likelihood, to minimize Trump’s chances:

      (1) Indies break to Biden by any amount greater than Trump (49-48 indies in swing states would be enough to beat Trump)

      (2) Rs break to Biden at a higher rate than Ds break to Trump in swing states

      (3) The deluge of new voters in Texas break heavily for Biden

      None of these things are unlikely, and in fact, considerable polling shows that both 1 and 2 might be true. I’m hopeful that they aren’t, but we just can’t tell from the early votes.

    108. Sy says:

      If you are on Twitter, you would think 95% of the Trump voters in 2016 have switched and voted for Biden already.

      The democrats have hired a twitter army for this election cycle to mess with us.

    109. Brion says:

      111 gbj it is a problem, leftist like you will key cars damage your property……. I’m sure you’ve done your share of under handed bs to stop free speech!

    110. SoHope says:

      Gatorbillyjoel says:
      October 30, 2020 at 4:15 pm
      If you can’t acknowledge who you voted for, you know it’s a problem.



    111. Big Joe says:

      I see that TargetSmart has added historical data to it’s site including their final model after election day in 2016.

      Should be interesting to go through and compare to 2016 actuals to see how accurate they truly were.


    112. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      Man, Rump sure seems lost in this rally in Wisconsin.

    113. Stonewall DW says:

      Dem collapse continues: 120602

    114. Waingro says:

      #120 Gator, does seems as “lost” as this?


    115. Waingro says:

      #122, *does he seem

    116. Smack says:

      All Early Voting – Florida

      Oct 30th / 3:31pm

      DEM: 3,277,288 39.62%

      GOP: 3.106,686 38.14%

      Final 2016 FL All Early Voting
      DEM: 39.80%
      GOP: 38.34%

    117. Michelle Obama vs the DNC buffet table says:

      Biden once confused his wife and sister and couldn’t remember who he was VP under.

      Gatorbillyjoel says:
      October 30, 2020 at 4:29 pm
      Man, Rump sure seems lost in this rally in Wisconsin.

    118. jaichind says:

      113. I think better performance of Trump with Blacks and Hispanics tends to come in the form of Black and Hispanic R voters turning out while Black and Hispanic D voters not turning out versus actually switchover.

    119. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      Baris can only get Rump to within three in Wisconsin. Sad! Does he have Rump down in every battleground state in the Midwest?

    120. Stonewall DW says:

      Baris hasn’t finished the WI poll.

    121. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      Baris shows it 48-45 Biden in Wisconsin.

    122. Stonewall DW says:

      Baris just said that he expects when the final region in WI comes in, he thinks the poll will be a 48 tie.

    123. GatorBJ says:

      Cheer up, stalker troll. We’re still up in Connecticut!

    124. Tina says:

      Catherine Herridge
      · 1h
      #Election2020 A source with direct knowledge of the FBI interview tells @CBSNews that former Hunter Biden business associate Tony Bobulinski was interviewed by the FBI, with counsel present, at the bureau’s Washington Field Office, on October 23 for approximately 4-5 hours. About

    125. Baris says:

      “Baris just said that he expects when the final region in WI comes in, he thinks the poll will be a 48 tie.”

      Hey DW, is 48-48 ok? I simply can’t publish the 48-45 poll, sorry trolls. I can make it 50-48 Trump if you think that would help. Thoughts?

    126. Waingro says:

      #133, nice! I was hoping to fish him in earlier with some of my posts, but DW got it done instead.

    127. Stonewall DW says:

      134 – its all in the wrist, you just have to twist it the right way as you click.

    128. Sean says:

      Let me guess Baris, you want some money?

    129. Gordon Allen says:

      Dblaikie has been correct I think about polling( including GOP friendly) from the start.The core issue is how few people can be reached by pollsters,AND are willing and able to talk to a live caller for 20 minutes,AND give honest answers.
      When roughly 100 calls are made to get one completed response,it seems obvious to me you’re likely NOT getting a representative sample of the voting population,no matter how many boxes are checked.In fact it’s almost a self selecting sample of people with the time and interest to be ” polled”.
      I’ve heard Baris,and read Cahaly talk about how it’s like pulling teeth to find people to be polled AND be representative. Even Cahaly disbelieves his own poll,believing Trump will actually overperform by a point or two. Barnes says the same.
      We’ll find out soon,but the ” science”(?) of polling may have to be re-visited.As Dblaikie has said, perhaps distrust all polls,and that applies to Biden’s and Trump’s as well ( although I suspect they put more money and effort into theirs.

    130. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      Speaking of money, Rump campaign so broke, they can’t even pay for election night event.

    131. Smack says:

      All Early Voting – Florida

      Oct 30th / 3:46pm

      DEM: 3,230,748 39.61%
      GOP: 3,111,666 38.15%

      Final 2016 FL All Early Voting
      DEM: 39.80%
      GOP: 38.34%

    132. Tina says:


      · 13m
      Senior officials on Biden’s campaign are increasingly worried about insufficient Black and Latino voter turnout in key states like Florida and Pennsylvania https://trib.al/EGj0tdc

    133. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      A lot of pollsters now recruit survey panels, who they continually poll. How representative they are of the actual voting population is open to question. At this point, see all polling as unreliable.

    134. Stonewall DW says:

      Dems Black Friday in Florida continues…

      Gap is 119082 and the Dems still blowing through their super-voters at a higher rate than the GOP.

    135. Tina says:

      But they are all Rs voting for Biden.


    136. John says:

      Earlier today….President Trump “called off plans to host an election night event at the Trump International Hotel in DC and will likely remain at the White House that night”.
      Translation….prediction – this election will not be called for days due to some states not counting vbm the day of the election and will continue to accept ballots days after…

    137. dblaikie says:

      Thanks Gordon, at the very least, with their rotten track record of the past 4 years I think it is smart to take every poll cynically rather than just accepting them. Let me take a Trump friendly polling firm, Rasmussen, for instance. I think it doesn’t make sense to have Trump’s approval so far above his number in the head to head. Now the easy thing for the Trump supporter to do is to doubt the head to head, and believe the approval. That is wrong. I take both cynically. Or take TIPP, I am cynical about any poll that only samples 200 nationally per day. To me in a nation of close 300 million 200 people a day just doesn’t cut it for me.

      And then you have the media polls and college polling outfits. They are hired by people who hate Trump so much that they will lie, cover up, engage in blatant propaganda, and smear him boldly. They don’t only want to destroy Trump but also his family. So does it make sense to think alright they will do anything to defeat Trump, but I believe that they are trying to produce accurate polls.

      Polling is broken. Please know that if I am proven wrong and the polls are accurate. I will take my lumps admit that my take on polls is broken. We will see.

    138. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      The impression I get from individuals involved in Democratic campaigning is they are feeling what Republicans are feeling. No one really knows what will happen on Tuesday — the situation is so novel and unusual.

    139. dblaikie says:

      144 Sadly I agree. It will surprise me if the election will called by Wednesday.

    140. JeffP says:

      It appears to me the Dems are VERY worried about their turnout numbers.

    141. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      Great day for Democrats in North Carolina today.

    142. MrVito says:

      Early turnout gap in FL is now smaller than 2016 by %.

    143. Greymarch says:

      #140: Bloomberg uber-hates Trump. If Bloomberg’s news org is willing to let something like that slip through the MSM-wall, you know its a bad sign for Biden.

    144. Stonewall DW says:

      117595 is new gap on Dem Black Friday in Florida.

    145. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      If Biden wins, wonder how long it will be before the Hunter Biden scandal forces him to resign? The tech oligarchs are salivating for their tool Kamala Harris to become president. The Bernie faction will be angered at Harris serving as the tech pet, and lash out. It will get combative very soon.

    146. mnw says:

      I love it when GBJ talks about NC.

      I’m not being sarcastic. We can believe, “Great day for DEMs in NC today,” or we can believe Wes.

      We KNOW he’s full of skit About NC. How likely is he to be right about anything else?

    147. Justin says:

      Florida is 39-38-21 D-R-I currently. Likely be 39-39-21 by the end of early voting. Florida may end up +4 or 5 R. How does that compare with 2016? 2018?

    148. WizardofCozz says:

      Notice how GBJ doesn’t talk much about FL now. Instead he’s onto NC, then it will be AZ, then PA, and then it’s game over.

    149. Tina says:

      Actually, minor point wizzed, AZ was last week.

    150. mnw says:


      Read Tina’s link! They’re ALSO worried about non-college whites OVER-performing.

      Very un-Bloomberg-like admissions.

    151. hugh says:

      dems do not need to worry because it was a great day for voting in NC. AFter they got their butts kicked yesterday. Just a blip per our new nc expert.

    152. mnw says:

      156 Wizard

      He wouldn’t post about FL OR NC, if he knew what he was talking about.

    153. Sheeple,Jr. says:

      #156- Wizard
      Last night at HHR, I asked D–khead to concede that Florida was a goner for the Democrats. He did via his silence. Splendid!

    154. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      156, 161 Are you hearing voices? Its just background static –ignore it.

    155. Tina says:

      Larry Schweikart

      Rs just took the lead in Maricopa Co.

      Notice something?
      Republican 541,263 (59.3% Turnout)
      Democrats 535,246 (65.9%)

      Despite turning out 6.6% MORE of their voters, the Ds still trail. That spells L.O.O.K.O.U.T. election day.

    156. hugh says:

      It looks like in FL we will clear 55K today based on the last hour which was glorious!!!

      No path now in Florida unless the cowardly dems are ready to risk death and vote in percentages unheard of in recent history on ED.

      The big question now is whether C Crist will lose? and maybe Shalala. that would be so beautiful. I think this needs a Chump Chump

      After today and tomorrow EV in NC we can probably put it in the safe column. No matter what the polls say and how much the fools who believe them are willing to bet.

    157. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      College educated whites are making up 6% greater of the electorate in 2020 than 2016 from NC. Non-college educated whites make up 5% less than they did four years ago in NC. Guess who the college educated whites are voting for?

    158. Scooterboy says:

      WOW !!!!!! And I doubt they will surge on ED for Biden. They aren’t enthusiastic about him.

      Biden Aides See Warning Signs in Black, Latino Turnout. So Far In Pennsylvania, nearly 75% of registered Black voters have not yet voted, the data shows.

    159. eriepa says:

      Gator-Im guessing Stacey Abrams

    160. BillW says:

      #166 GBJ –

      Well I would think college educated whites in NC would be smart enough not to vote for a corrupt, brain-dead moron.

    161. hugh says:

      Great news on AZ. Looks like its looking up their as well. I noticed the youth vote is underperforming there. Those numbers are through yesterday. By tomorrow we should be leading the EV in AZ with todays results. Too bad for the dems, that may too be in the safe column. But they do have the polls and trolls going for them.

    162. Sheeple,Jr. says:

      Sorry, D–khead, but even if true you fail to mention the following:
      1) The AA vote in NC early voting is now below the 20% benchmark the Democrats need to even compete
      2)The non-college caucasians swarm the polls on election day so those current percentages will invert

      You are such a simplistic fool!

    163. Stonewall DW says:

      Democrat Black Friday Florida style continues:

      Gap 116,310 and they continue to burn through their super-voters at higher rate than the GOP.

    164. JC says:

      @170 Hugh

      If the youth vote underperformz in AZ that would be horrendous for democrats, especially considering that weed legalization is on the ballot.

      The weed legalization bill is one of the reasons I’ve been worried about AZ. Out of all the core Trump states it’s the only one I’m nervous about.

    165. JeffS says:

      I’m old enough to remember when Ohio was a bellweather state. Long, long time ago I guess as the media never refers to it as such.

    166. Stonewall DW says:

      Robert Barnes
      Due to worse-than-2016 Democratic performances in early vote, Democratic strategists now praying the polls are wrong about heavy GOP voting on election day.

    167. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      164. I am fearful about Arizona, as well as Nevada. So that is good news regarding Arizona. Will believe Trump can carry Nevada when I see it.

      I am not seeing the level of enthusiasm among Democrats as did in 2018. The lockdown is definitely hurting them. There door-to-door campaigning encouraging people to vote, and collecting ballots, is not taking place. Their campaign motto should be: “Hiddin for Biden”.

    168. Scooterboy says:

      My daughter registered to vote for the first time and she will be voting for Donald Trump. I’m a proud papa. That will be four votes for Trump from the Scooterboy family.
      Won’t make much difference here in Illifornia, but we will do our part.

    169. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      173. Snowflakes scare easily. Our education system taught them too. Suggesting leftist youth go out and vote during a pandemic is a microaggression.

    170. Stonewall DW says:

      FINAL Round of Purple State Initiative Polls:

      October 24-29, 2020, 1000 LVs per state.

      Trump 50%
      Biden 46%

      North Carolina:
      Trump 49%
      Biden 47%

      Trump 46%
      Biden 49%

      Trump 45%
      Biden 48%

      Trump 46%
      Biden 47%

      Trump 47%
      Biden 47%

      Trump 49%
      Biden 47%

      Trump 48%
      Biden 47%

      Trump 49%
      Biden 48%

      New Hampshire:
      Trump 48%
      Biden 47%

      Paladin Polling – Purple State Initiative

    171. Annie says:

      177. Scooter… Six people in my family are voting for Trump in California (my husband, myself, our 3 sons, and a daughter-in-law). At least we can help with the popular vote numbers.

    172. Country Dick Montana says:

      ” Snowflakes scare easily.”

      But they will soon be back and in greater numbers.


    173. phoenixrisen says:

      DW, the remaining GOP base is going to storm the polls on Election Day given what we have already seen, me included. It’s going to be awesome

    174. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      Trump Job Approval
      Among registered voters:
      Approve 48%
      Disapprove 52%
      Among likely voters:
      Approve 49%
      Disapprove 51%
      @Harris_X_/@thehill 10/25-28

    175. JC says:

      I think the youth vote will underperform everywhere.

      The biggest story not told about the election is how the closed campuses will hurt the youth vote. This year, there will be no activists to pull college goers by the hand to cast their ballots.

    176. chris says:

      179 – those numbers very credible

    177. Sheeple,Jr. says:

      I live in NC. Civitas Institute is the best poll tracker in the State. The information in your post is either from a poll or a pundit, but not from hard data.
      Your duplicity is getting old. Your reputation is in shambles.
      The next level for you is laughingstock!

    178. Annie says:

      The youth vote seldom (never) is as high as the Democrats hope. This year, the universities are practically empty, as students stay home and take on-line classes. So, the college-age voters just aren’t around the university towns and adding their numbers to the Democrat vote totals. Many are home with their Republican-voting parents instead.

    179. John says:

      Watching and listening now to Joe Biden. This guy sounds angry and pissed off….not a candidate that the media says he has this wrapped up. Not even close.

    180. Tina says:

      Trump supporters in Minnesota exceed the number of Biden supporters at his rally.


    181. Will says:

      You go sheeple jr!!

    182. Stonewall DW says:

      Florida Dem Black Friday just keeps going on…


    183. NYCmike says:

      “Gap 116,310 and they continue to burn through their super-voters at higher rate than the GOP.”

      -Sorry, but WTF are “super-voters”?

    184. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      The anemic campaign that Biden is running does not help youth turnout. Young voters turn out when they are excited about a charismatic candidate. Right now youth seem to be strongly focused on their own personal issues.

    185. GatorBJ says:

      Can someone loan me a pair of trousers? I’ve soiled 4 pairs watching today’s early votes come in.

    186. Stonewall DW says:

      And for those late to table, 2018 the GOP candidates won in FL with Dems holding a 234,000 edge after early voting. GOP in 2020 would have been thrilled with only a 200,000 edge.

      Its at 115,198 and falling…

    187. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      186 – I live in the real world. Check out the data from target smart. It shows the age and education of 2016 voters and now. The college educated white vote is up. Non college educated white vote is down. Go look and then come back and tell me what you see.

      Chomp chomp, chump.

    188. Stonewall DW says:

      super voter is someone registered for a particular party who has voted in 4 out of the last 4 elections.

    189. phoenixrisen says:

      Entirely feasible that FL D gap edge could be 50,000 or less. I would love to see actually a GOP gap but that would be tough. Would be a first if it happened.

    190. Tina says:


      Andrew Clark Jack-o-lantern
      · 4m
      “Stanley McGeneral.” – Joe Biden, trying to say General Stanley McChrystal Face with tears of joyFace with tears of joyFace with tears of joy

    191. NYCmike says:

      “super voter is someone registered for a particular party who has voted in 4 out of the last 4 elections.”


      How do you know that they haven’t voted yet?

    192. dblaikie says:

      Biden is really sad with this speech in Minnesota. Not clear, unclear speech, disjointed. All he does is yell. What a joke.

    193. Stonewall DW says:

      200 that data apparently is part of the registered voter data that is available.

    194. GatorBJ says:

      Florida is gone. GONE!!!!!

    195. Scooterboy says:

      The young voters do not like the lock downs. Here in Illinois, the Governor has locked down the restaurants to carry out only again. It was the first thing my daughter said when she came home from classes the other day. “That idiot is closing down the restaurants again”. They don’t like it, and they ARE paying attention.

    196. Stonewall DW says:

      201 – at a certain point, he is campaigning for Trump. I know the dozen people that turn out to see him live are die-hards, but when the local media covers it, and some of the gaffes get talked about over the picket fence to neighbors, it doesn’t help him. He would be better hiding in basement trying to run out the clock.

    197. Tina says:

      Please tell me the sniffer and biter did not too this today.


    198. Stonewall DW says:

      it just keeps going…


      …real data, not polls.

    199. Ruru says:

      Remember the early voting on Sunday in fl is almost only in big blue counties. We’ll see what souls to the polls will do.

      I would be happy if Sunday were net flat. We shall see?

    200. Smack says:

      Pasco County, Florida is a handful of votes away from becoming more RED in 2020 in All Early Voting vs 2016.


      This indicates Trump is in the game in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

    201. Stonewall DW says:

      Silver has relented and is again listing the Trafalgar polls on his page. Conveniently posted after 6pm on a Friday to minimize exposure.

    202. Pitchaboy says:

      Brutal FNC poll.

    203. LewisS says:

      It’s worth repeating…

      We’ve seen all the polls and now we’re seeing hard data with regard to actual votes being cast.
      * Ralston is super nervous in Nevada
      * Florida Republican are storming the polls as if its Normandy 1944
      * Republican turnout is shocking folks in Michigan and Wisconsin.
      * Dems are worried about Black and Latino turnout in PA and Florida (Miami).
      * Objective voting models all point to a Trump win
      * Historic models with surprising accuracy such as student voting (Iowa), Halloween mask sales; cookie polls in bellwether states of MN, WI, OH and PA all are massively pointing to a Trump win.

      So…when does actual data of objective and historic measurements catch up with a poll of 400 people which is supposed to represent how 330,000,000 people are voting.

    204. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      Fox can only get Rump to within high single digits? Who is going to change Hannity’s diaper?

    205. Country Dick Montana says:

      1215 RV –> 1246 LV. 95% voting participation rate from that poll?


    206. GatorBJ says:

      FL PA AZ NC – they’re all dropping faster than Hunter Biden’s crack whores!!!!

    207. Tina says:

      Biden implodes again.

      Jennifer Epstein
      · 25m
      Trump supporters making noise near Biden’s speech in St. Paul seem to be getting under his skin. “Dr.Fauci called for a mask mandate last week. This isn’t a political statement like those ugly folks over there beeping the horns. This is a patriotic duty, for God’s sake,” he says.

    208. Scooterboy says:

      Schweikart- “ Rs just took the lead in Maricopa Co.

      Notice something?
      Republican 541,263 (59.3% Turnout)
      Democrats 535,246 (65.9%)

      Despite turning out 6.6% MORE of their voters, the Ds still trail. That spells L.O.O.K.O.U.T. election day.

    209. GF says:

      211/214; what poll is this?

    210. Pitchaboy says:

      The only way we can reconcile these polls with what we are seeing in EV is if massive R defections(no proof in polls) or DJT getting slaughtered with indies. My thoughts are this: More Indies are identifying as R now than in 2016. This is why Barris found R plus 8 in his WI poll. It will also explain why DJT is getting slaughtered with indies. But the mistake the pollsters make, in my opinion, is adjusting the electorate to D plus 3 or 4. This is a double whammy for DJT: they took away the R edge while using the bad indie numbers. We shall see.

    211. dblaikie says:

      Well Pitch we know Chris Wallace is happy. The funny part of the whole thing is Bret turned as fast as he could to RCP average of battleground state poll which have tightened to 3 points. Bret was embarrassed by his own poll.

      Once again at this late date we know enough real voting data that renders this poll as just plain silly.

    212. JeffP says:

      DW…Paladin polls…that is exactly what I am thinking too..very accurate polls!

    213. Annie says:

      212. “Historic models with surprising accuracy…”

      And, don’t forget that when the Dodgers win the World Series, the GOP wins.

    214. Pitchaboy says:

      The real way to poll would be to lump leaners with self identifiers. In my opinion Thai is likely D 46 to R 44, D plus 2, as Gallup suggests. The true indies of 10 will be evenly split.

    215. Scooterboy says:

      Obama//Biden Michigan Rallies will be closer to the public.

      Probably worried more Trump supporters will show than Biden supporters.

    216. Country Dick Montana says:

      That Time of the week. It will be a little nippy in SW PA this weekend but giving my undivided attention to Mrs. CDM and my hobbies beats scrolling through multiple garbage posts by the usual suspect.

      Missed it last weekend as I wasn’t posing, but RIP Jerry Jeff Walker.


    217. Scooterboy says:

      Closed, not closer.

    218. Tina says:


      When company makes error, it’s good customer service to fix it. Unabomber 2.0 confirmed the company’s error in testimony.

      Twitter Safety
      · 30m
      This means that because a specific @nypost enforcement led us to update the Hacked Materials Policy, we will no longer restrict their account under the terms of the previous policy and they can now Tweet again.

    219. Pitchaboy says:

      I fully expect R plus electorates in FL, AZ and WI. PA D plus 2.

    220. Bitterlaw says:

      Gameboy- That was you who always parked in front of my driveway during Parents Weekend at Villanova! I live 3 blocks from the football stadium. My son graduated from Temple in May.

      What town do you live in?

    221. gameboy says:

      #231 I lived in Strafford for many years. Now live in Berwyn. It wasn’t me who parked in front of your driveway. I typically hopped on a train for the short trip to Nova for the parent student things. Easier than worrying about parking.

    222. Smacks says:

      2020 Pasco County, Florida in All Early Voting has gone more RED than 2016.

      I’m officially calling BS on most of these rust belt polls.

      Trump will get to 270 on November 3rd.

    223. Tina says:

      Lol, trump,supporters confront Biden, who referred to them as ugly.


    224. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      Typical thuggish behavior from rump kissers. That won’t play well with Midwest nice voters.

    225. Stonewall DW says:


    226. Jeff G. says:

      Does gatorgoober realize that Trump won college educated whites by 19 points in NC in 2016? If there are more of them and fewer Black votes, that looks like a net gain for Trump. By election day the working class whites, who Trump won by 44 points in 2016 will show up and at greater rates than 2016.

    227. Jeff G. says:

      On the other hand, Gator, you did make some good points about Georgia. It is trending in a blue direction. I don’t think it’s there yet, but it could be a very interesting state on election night.

    228. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      Thank you, Jeff. Biden will win Georgia and at least one of the senate seats will go blue.

    229. Sheeple,Jr. says:

      Thuggish behavior to protest a candidate, but the “Midwest nice voters” just love their Antifa burning down the State Capitol.
      Gator, we may remove the Moron from Messy and give it to you!

    230. Jeff G. says:

      Gator, I will disagree with you on the final result, but it should be the most interesting state that relatively few people are focusing on.

    231. Pitchaboy says:

      GatorBoy: SloJo will win the country of Georgia before he wins the state of Georgia. I am making a big assumption that your I.Q. Doesn’t preclude a bit of geographical knowledge.

    232. Sheeple,Jr. says:

      #239- Jeff G.
      What good points about Georgia did Gator make? In 2014, just about all the Georgia polling had Democrat Michelle Nunn beating Perdur by 5-8 pts.Guess what, Perdue prevailed by high single digits.

    233. George says:

      What a coincidence……that audio feed to C-Span and FOX while Trump is speaking from Minnesota becomes inaudible as Trump lays into the Minnesota government leaders. They have to cut the feed due to the “technical difficulties”.

    234. Bitterlaw says:

      Gameboy – Drive over to MD’s house and see how he is doing.

    235. Greymarch says:

      Twitter finally backed down. They unlocked the NY Post account. First amendment wins. Thank goodness. https://twitter.com/nypost

      How something like this could happen in our democracy is utterly terrifying.

    236. Jeff G. says:

      Sheeple,Jr., I’m MAGA to the bone. I am only acknowledging that the long-term trend does point to a smaller R+ electorate in Georgia from election to election. As an aside, my sister is a hardcore liberal in the Atlanta area, but she thinks there’s no way Biden wins Georgia or this election. But as the rust belt possibly continues to trend Republican, Georgia is one state in the South that could tilt purple soon — or not. The registration trend points to a growing Black electorate. Just an attempt at thoughtful discussion. Didn’t mean to upset anyone. I hope you continue to have a pleasant Friday evening.

    237. chris says:

      With just over a million votes cast in NV, the dem lead in returned ballots is 44,284. Total registration is 1.8 mil

    238. Dylan says:

      245–He was able to get in his digs against Ellison and the governor before the feed was lost.

      Aside from that, Geraldo was a bit poopy on trump’s chances on account of COVID 19 hitting the Upper Midwest so hard.

    239. John says:

      Folks, this is a really informative site…a lot of facts being brought up….and a lot of illuminating and enlightening certainties to emphasize actual realities….and it is appreciated…but it is sad to see some here fall gullible to trolls.

    240. Adam says:

      Thank you.

    241. George says:

      217: Schweikart- “ Rs just took the lead in Maricopa Co.

      Notice something?
      Republican 541,263 (59.3% Turnout)
      Democrats 535,246 (65.9%)

      Despite turning out 6.6% MORE of their voters, the Ds still trail. That spells L.O.O.K.O.U.T. election day. “

      That means many Dems are crossing over to Trump!

      Red Tsunami coming!

    242. Dylan says:

      That was a very short speech in Rochester MN. Trump must be tired. He’s campaigning so relentlessly hard.

    243. Brion says:

      251 no, most hit back and point out flaws in the arguments they make. Stupid arguments at that. You are a new poster?

    244. John says:

      Maricopa….voted Trump by about 3.5% and Arizona voted Trump by 3.5%.
      Where Maricopa goes so goes Arizona.

    245. Tina says:

      Yeah, short speech. They also restricted the amount of time he could be there is what I read.

    246. GatorBJ says:

      Someone post a Survey Monkey poll. No more early voter stats. I CAN’T TAKE IT ANY MORE!!!!

    247. Sheeple,Jr. says:

      Thank you. Never Feed The Beast or it will devour you shortly.

    248. Dylan says:

      Win or lose, Minenapolis is gonna have trouble on election night with the looters. Ellison won’t be demanding permits.

    249. Jeff G says:

      More good news about Florida. The share of under-30 voter increased yesterday from 8% to 10% of the overall early vote share. That cohort was 17% of the total Florida electorate in 2016. And those were Clinton’s strongest supporters by age. Unless an invisible army of young people is getting ready to storm the polls in the next four days, Trump is going to win Florida big, at least by Florida standards.

    250. mnw says:

      Hugh, George, or any non-troll:

      When Larry Schweikart tweets that DEMs are turning out more of their registered voters in Maricopa County than Rs are, but Rs are leading (see post 253), how does Schweikart KNOW that?

      How is it possible to calculate that DEMs are crossing over? Polls, or what?

      I don’t understand that.

    251. Tina says:

      Trump War Room – Text TRUMP to 88022
      “Joe Biden and I are about to work to get rid of that tax cut,” Kamala Harris tells Hispanic Americans.


    252. John says:

      This is just beyond me. Neither campaign visiting Arizona for their 11 EC votes? Arizona is razor thin and Maricopa just passed the lead…except Maricopa voted for Trump for 3.5% in 2016 for his win and now is basically tied.
      I cannot understand this. Arizona might be the ‘Wisconsin’ of 2020.

    253. Tina says:

      Daniel Chaitin
      · 52m
      BREAKING: Another Hunter Biden laptop was taken into custody during a DEA raid earlier this year at the office of a former celebrity psychiatrist in Massachusetts: Report https://washex.am/320ySb7 — for @dcexaminer

    254. Tina says:

      #264, you need to check the campaign events.

      The veep was just there today in Tucson

    255. BayernFan says:

      From Jack Posobiec Twitter…

      Hill staffer just texted me, “KH ready to get back to the Senate”

    256. Jeff G. says:

      I found a CNN story from yesterday that says the following about NC early vote:

      “Young people are continuing to vote in large numbers in North Carolina. Last week, voters under 30 made up about 11% of early voters but that’s now ticked up slightly to over 12%.”

      However, CNN’s own exit polls in 2016 had voters under 30 as 18% of the electorate. “Large numbers” — Hmm. Again, the invisible army of young people must be preparing to storm the polls in NC in the next four days.

    257. John says:

      I stand corrected. However, with 11 ECs at play Trump should visit.

    258. mnw says:


      Who is “KH”?

      And whass up in Vigo County?

    259. Michelle Obama vs the DNC buffet table says:

      @270 – Kamala Harris. The buzz is she knows they’re finished based on the early returns

    260. Tina says:

      He was there yesterday

    261. mnw says:

      buffet table

      Thx. Duh!

    262. LewisS says:

      mnw (#262),

      Yeah, I’m with you on Sweikert’s post on Maricopa. He has no idea (no one does) how the R and D ballots are actually voting in Maricopa.

      Putting his tweet in the best light, I’m guessing he’s saying the R’s currently lead and they have many more R voters in reserve than Ds do since Rs have a registration advantage in Maricopa.

    263. John says:

      Not enough. Just go there. Tuesday would be perfect.

    264. Robbie says:

      It’s convenient timing coronavirus testing was ramped up just before the election so every non-infectious case of corona could found.

    265. BayernFan says:

      No idea what is going on in Vigo County. I’ll be watching those returns.

    266. mnw says:


      I’m glad I wasn’t the only one who couldn’t connect those dots.

      Larry really skrood the pooch in 2018. REALLY. Predicted a red wave right up until the returns started to come in. That causes me to take everything he posts now with a bucket of salt or two.

    267. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      Rump gave a half hearted speech in Minnesota. It’s like he didn’t want to even Be there. Just going through the motions. If he wasn’t such a despicable human being, it would be sad to watch.

    268. mnw says:

      277 BF

      OK, thx.

    269. John says:

      Just go to Maricopa County, AZ on Tuesday and have a very early rally for Phoeniz, Tempe, Scottsdale and Mesa etc. and this will put you over 270 threshold…

    270. Trumpence33 says:

      Early voted in Nash County, NC this evening. The GOP poll worker said it was the best day so far for R turnout.

      In my opinion we have 2 days and Election Day to close the D ballot advantage to 125k. I think that’s the magic number.

    271. BayernFan says:

      Through 10/20, 18654 of 73495 RVZ have voted in Vigo County per the local terre haute paper.

    272. lisab says:

      If you can’t acknowledge who you voted for, you know it’s a problem.

      there is no way i could tell anyone i am not voting for biden — i will not be voting for biden

      i’d lose my job

    273. Hugh says:

      There is a site that showed EV by party for AZ and it ties to schweikarts numbers. I find his post very hard to understand. So I found a link they gave me Arizona early voting through end of day yesterday. And the tied. My feeling on Larry is that he bounces all over the place. However his underlying theory about early voting in 2016 was dead on. 2018 not so much. So I do think it’s worth looking at what he has to say but you have to spend some time to interpret it. Arizona tomato looks pretty darn good right now.

    274. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      That Minnesota rally for Rump sure was sad. He should have just canceled it like he did his election watch party.

    275. buster says:


      That wasn’t a Trump rally, it was the Biden rally.

      No worries, it would have been easy to confuse the two.

    276. eriepa says:

      Gator, thanks for the update on the Minnesota rally from your other post 20 minutes ago.

    277. Tina says:

      Robert C. Cahaly
      #2020Election #BattlegroundState #AZpoll conducted 10/25-28 shows undecideds starting to break and Trump still ahead:
      1.7% Other,
      0.7% Und. See Report: https://thetrafalgargroup.org/news/az-pres-103020/

    278. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      Wasn’t it a four point race be last time they looked there? Seems like the momentum is with Biden.

    279. chris says:

      Rolston is pretty stoked about the current NV numbers. Dems have a 45k lead in returned ballots, which to me isn’t that many. Trump basically needs to win election day by 5% and win independents by 5% to close the gap (Trump won indies 50-37 in ’16).

      It should also be noted that Clinton’s margin of victory (24K votes) was exceed by Johnson’s total (37K).

      So how many of Johnson’s voters go Trump this year?

    280. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      Nevada looks great. Clark county coming through strong, as expected. Loved you all getting hopes up. Delusional.

    281. lisab says:

      lots of people drove to rochester, mn to see trump

      (i was in rochester mn today)

    282. Ridin' with Biden says:

      Mrs. RWB kept me busy with house chores after our vacation. It’s wonderful to return to Arizona. The missus is spending time with her friends so I decided to visit this board.

      Arizona is looking wonderous in early voting. Nevada as well. It is about time to call Nevada for Mr. Biden.

      Goodness, such wonderful news out of Georgia and even Texas. I am not sure that Texas will go to Mr. Biden, but Georgia certainly can!

      All of this on top of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Even Iowa looking positive. Florida and North Carolina will be close but we are in the game there. We have a great chance at over 330 electoral votes. How exciting indeed!

    283. eriepa says:

      Gator – I need an update from the Minnesota rally, its been a half hour.

    284. MrVito says:

      TargetSmart has these models right now in MI

      Oakland +1.6 D
      Macomb +7.9 R
      Kent +11.0 R

    285. michael corleone says:

      #291 – he shouldn’t be that stoked. First knock about 1200 off the statewide lead because the Secretary didn’t include Washoe IPEV from Thursday in its update. So the real margin is closer to 43k. GOP is likely to cut that below 40k this evening with Clark and Washoe Friday reports (which should have higher turnout and thus higher margins). In 2016 the statewide lead was 44k and HRC won by 2%. At end of day tomorrow the statewide lead with be below 44k once rurals report and additional mail is processed. But what’s worse, the population adjusted target *set by Ralston himself* is 56k, which they aren’t going to hit. Now we may lose a lot of ground over the weekend as Mail reports without offsetting IP voting, but I still think we will be below Ralston’s targets heading into E day. In addition, as evidenced in the early vote for the last two weeks, the E day vote will be more GOP than normal because some of this mail = D cannibalization of in person votes. Finally, since ED voting will be overwhelmingly GOP per polling, we should see the Rurals representing a slightly higher share of the overall electorate – closer to the 14% Ralston said DJT needed (that’s because rurals have highest concentration of GOP voters who will be showing up on E day). Nevada is going to be tight. DJT won’t win but I think it represents how DJT may have greater vote share this year and that bodes well for rest of country.

    286. mnw says:

      291 chris

      Johnson (L) got 4.08% in AZ in 2016, so if Jorgensen (L) gets 2.3% in AZ THIS year (which is what the Trafalgar poll cited above in post 289 found), that would mean the L vote in AZ has DECLINED from last time by 1.8% (rounded).

      Of course, that 1.8% could be “ridin’ with Biden,” so that Biden’s new gun czar Beto* can send the cops to their homes to confiscate their guns, I suppose. /s

      *Biden said right after Beto endorsed Biden that, “I want Beto to be in charge of my firearms policy!” (appx, IIRC).

    287. chris says:

      297 Why wont Trump win?

    288. jaichind says:

      298. I am not sure we can count on gaining that much from the 2016 L vote. Some of them are might be the “Lincoln Republicans” bloc that voted L in 2016 but this time will be with Biden. Not sure how large this group would be but it will reduce the net Trump gain from the 2016 L vote.

    289. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      Review the crosstabs of the Fox poll and see what it it’s showing you. Rump is getting crushed with suburban women. It’s the story in state after state. Women are outvoting men bigly this election so far and not for Rump. That’s why you aren’t going to win, my friends.

    290. Ridin' with Biden says:

      Most certainly. Republicans are crossing over to vote for Mr. Biden in Arizona. Independents are also breaking for Mr. Biden.

      This is how Ms. Sinema captured her glorious victory in 2018.

    291. eriepa says:

      I’ll get right on that Gator -thanks for the tip! Hey hows that rally going?

    292. CrocodilePhilCollins says:

      Good old Joe Biden


    293. chris says:

      In case anyone is wondering, its 9:38 AM in Beijing

    294. chris says:

      Ridin’ with Biden is jealous because they don’t get to have elections in China

    295. Cash Cow TM says:

      How is the early voting comin in in Beijing?

      More Red or Blue?

    296. mnw says:

      I notice the trolls have the LEAST confidence about Biden winning in those states which have the MOST EV data (FL & NC).

    297. Stonewall DW says:

      Florida Black Friday for Dems finally over. Their lead is just 114171. Huge number of GOP ballots yet to come.

    298. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      The picture has become clear.

      GA, AZ, WI, NC, PA, and MI are flipping to Biden.

      FL is going to be tight, but looking like a 1% Biden win on the strength of independent voters for Biden.

      Texas will be razor thin. It may not flip this year, but it will be a clear warning shot to Republicans.

      MN, NH, and NV will not be close.

    299. mnw says:

      300 jaich

      Discuss that with Wes. He was a registered Libertarian in NC for 5 years, so.. he ought to know what rings those idiots’ bells.

      Personally? I think your theory is absolutely insane & wrongheaded.

    300. John says:

      Again, don’t feed the trolls. They may be DNC plants…trying to verify.

    301. mnw says:


      Tell us… how did Wes’ get his home state so badly wrong… in your opinion?

      Is Biden still “within 1-2 points in MO!”, btw?

    302. Dylan says:

      gator —who do you think will win KS, ND and SD? Close?…..

    303. John says:

      Did you get the memo? Stop feeding the trolls?

    304. mnw says:

      “Dave in Florida,” a particularly astute election analyst, imo, has a fascinating look of where we’re at with the polling industry, at Ace of Spades HQ blog (AoS). It’s pretty brilliant, like most of the stuff he writes. The man knows his field of expertise, that’s for sure.

      I don’t know how to link to it, but it’s the lead article headed “ONT (overnight) Thread,” at Ace Of Spades HQ.

      There’s a “Dave in Fla” who occasionally posts here. Not sure if it’s the same person.

    305. Robbie says:

      The Daily Mail reports Boris Johnson has decided to impose another draconian lockdown on Great Britain and will make the announcement on Monday.

      We might like to think renewed lockdowns won’t happen in various states in America, but it seems naive to believe that.

      Obviously, Trump isn’t going to call for another lockdown, but watch out for the blue state governors. Wolfe, Whitmer, Pritzker, and Evers will all cave and impose new restrictions.

    306. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      315. Definitely from a troll farm. The usual troll tactic of fanning controversy and trying to raises emotions. Am surprised some people on the board may not see through it.

    307. mnw says:


      I predict Ann Wagner (R-inc; MO-02) wins by 12+ points.

      You? Are you even willing to predict she loses, since you posted that “she was likely to lose”?

      Your analysis of the 2018 MO Senate race was even MORE awful, btw.

      I’m not calling you names or mocking you any longer, btw. I think you’ve earned that.

    308. Robbie says:

      mnw says:
      October 30, 2020 at 10:22 pm

      I predict Ann Wagner (R-inc; MO-02) wins by 12+ points.

      You? Are you even willing to predict she loses, since you posted that “she was likely to lose”?

      Your analysis of the 2018 MO Senate race was even MORE awful, btw.

      I’m not calling you names or mocking you any longer, btw. I think you’ve earned that.

      – I don’t remember saying too much about the Missouri Senate race in 2018 other than I was disappointed in 2017 Ann Wagner turned the race down.

      Remember, I was the one who long suggested starting in the Fall of 2017 Republicans could lose as many as 40 House seats and gain Senate seats.

      I really don’t remember what I wrote about the Missouri Senate race during the Fall of 2018. I guess I’ll go back and check what I wrote.

    309. Ridin' with Biden says:

      Oh my. Mr. Harrison absolutely dominated the final debate with Mr. Graham. At least Mr. Graham showed up this time. He’s wishing he didn’t.

      Speaking of debates, Ms. Collins sealed her fate with a dreadful debate, same for Mr. Perdue who was just as dreadful. Mr. Perdue than wimped out of the next debate. Poor clown.

      I don’t know which victory would be sweeter, vanquishing the lying Mr. Graham or vanquishing the racist, insider-trading Mr. Perdue.

    310. mnw says:


      You didn’t answer my question. Are you, or are you not, predicting that Wagner loses? You posted YESTERDAY that “she was likely to lose.”

      On another topic:

      FOX homepage lead story right now:

      “NOT SO FAST

      FOX News Poll Shows Biden’s Lead Shrinking, As Pollsters Issue Warning to Biden”

      My take? FOX is backing away from its own poll, & it didn’t take long, either!

    311. Robbie says:

      Taking a look at many of the individual state graphs of new cases, it seems like the last week of September and the first week of October was when the seven day average of new cases took off around the country.

      In the Spring, the states that had outbreaks saw the increase last for about a month to six weeks. The same was true during the Summer wave in the South. Cases took off around June 15 and then peaked right around July 15 to July 20.

      If the Fall wave in the Upper Midwest and Plains follows a similar course, then November 10 to the 15 could be when we see lots of states start to peak. However, given that it’s cold and flu season when these viruses spread so easily, the rules that applied in the Spring and Summer may not apply in the late Fall.

      There was a great show that aired on Smithsonian a few days ago about Spanish flu in 1918. The similarities between the wave that outbreak happened are almost to a T how this has gone. Cases appeared in the early Spring and took off. They disappeared for a while and then began spreading again in the Summer. The main outbreak took place in late Fall before slowly tapering off.

    312. Robbie says:

      mnw says:
      October 30, 2020 at 10:35 pm

      You didn’t answer my question. Are you, or are you not, predicting that Wagner loses? You posted YESTERDAY that “she was likely to lose.”

      – I’ll go with this. She wins a narrow race. Let’s say 5 points or less.

    313. For mnw says:

      Here is the link to the blog on ace of spades


    314. NYCmike says:

      Looking at the numbers from 2016, for Libertarians (Johnson) in MN, WI, MI, PA, AZ, NH, NM, GA, NC, CO – would it be ludicrous to believe that those voters are more inclined to vote Trump than vote Biden??

    315. For mnw says:

      Here is full article

      Polling In 2020 [By – Dave In Florida]
      —Misanthropic Humanitarian

      Polls … uh … What are the good for? Absolutely nothing!

      I think most of us remember my terrible predictions of a Romney victory in 2012. I literally hid for 6 months after that, out of shame.

      I did finally delurk and made a few comments during the 2014 election. I was pretty active during 2016 as one of the few pointing out that Trump could win, by pointing to polls like the LA Times/USC poll that used a different methodology. I was also correct regarding both Rick Scott and DeSantis in 2018.

      In 2012 I trusted the information that was contained in polls, and I learned the hard way how bad they can be.

      Polling is broken.

      There are a number of problems with the polling industry, but the biggest problem they are dealing with is response rate. Prior to 2000, polling was done primarily through random dial landline calling and they would get a response rate of 50%. That means half the people they contacted would answer their questions.

      The response rate today is 2%. 98 out of every 100 attempts to reach a voter is rejected. Of those that do respond, there is a very high sampling bias toward young, female, white Democrats. One of the pollsters I admire right now is Rich Baris, and he said, “the very first Republican I get to respond to every poll sounds like a Bill Kristol clone”.

      Getting a representative sample of the electorate is HARD.

      And that is the key to polling, you are getting a single person to be a proxy for the voting intentions of about 10,000 people. If you don’t get a truly representative sample, then you don’t have an accurate picture, before you even attempt to apply demographic weighting. You need age, ethnicity, class, values, income, genealogy, location, etc etc. A middle-class voter in Bucks County PA has a completely different voting profile than a middle-class voter in Greene County PA.

      To compensate for the problems with response rates, polling firms have begun to use multiple “modes” of sampling. They use online polls, text messages, phone calls with a redirect to web sites, emails, direct voice with same ethnicity interviewers, automated response polling, and others I probably don’t even know about. Note that the LA Times/USC poll that I mention above was an interesting attempt at a new mode, since they had a fixed pool for 3200 voters that they sampled every week.

      The better pollsters will use multiple modes, because each mode has its own inherent sampling bias. Young millennial women are much more likely to answer an online poll. A good pollster will also do oversampling. They will keep polling until they have enough of the representative demographics, and then will discard the extra responses from demographics that are overrepresented.

      This bring us to the next problem. How do you know what a representative sample is? Every pollster works with a voter file. These are databases that are compiled after every election based on voter records. They are correlated with marketing data to produce a profile of the demographic makeup of every precinct, town, city, region, and state in the country. The interesting thing about the voter file is that it can often tell you when a respondent is lying to you. They will tell you their voting history and you can look directly into the voter file to see they are not being truthful.

      So with a representative sample and a good voter file, you can get a good idea of how a region or state will vote.

      And this almost never happens.

      There are many reasons why, but at the core is the inability to get a representative sample. Right now, the one demographic that is brutally hard to sample is working class males. If a poll gets a sample at all, they will get perhaps 1 for every 20 college educated, age 30-45, white, Democrat women.

      When polls are wrong it is often because they have over represented a demographic or used the wrong demographic as a proxy. Many polls will consider a hipster working at Starbucks and a factory worker to both be a working-class male. But they don’t vote the same at all.

      By the way, this working-class male vote that is so hard to sample? They will vote for Trump 65-30.

      And these are just the polls that are getting bad results from sampling errors. There is also tremendous pressure on pollsters to generate results that are favorable in the opinion of their clients. During 2016, the best media pollster, in terms of predicting the correct outcome of the election, was ORC. They were polling for CNN. CNN fired them for being right.

      There are legitimate reports of pollsters deliberately targeting a bad sample in order to inflate polls. And there are rumors of some well-known pollsters deliberately faking results. Nate Silver is an enabler in this game by giving poor ratings to polling firms that deviate from the “consensus” while giving provably bad polls an “A rating”. Nate Silver waxed poetic over polls that Nate Cohn did for the New York Times, which included counties in Pennsylvania voting for Biden that have never voted for a Democrat. Meanwhile, last weekend he manufactured an excuse to exclude Trafalgar from his models.

      Ironically, it turns out that polling is one of the least accurate indicators of election results. Factors that have historically done a better job of predicting elections include the Norpath model, the Gallup “better off than 4 years ago” number, incumbent vote share during primaries, and new voter registration advantage.

      Even the results of Ohio and Florida are more predictive than polling, since other than JFK, no president has ever won without winning at least one of them.

      Finally, let me mention that it is often possible to verify if a poll is correct or not just by checking against known quantities. We saw this problem with recent Michigan polls where the polls were showing that Democrats were self-reporting that they had already voted at a 3:1 rate over Republicans. The problem with that poll is that you could check against actual voting records and see that the early voting was at a 1:1 ratio. Obviously, the poll is wrong.

      We are seeing the same things in both Texas and Florida right now, where polls are being released that are mathematically impossible given known data from early vote totals reported by the states.

      The bottom line is that the polling industry is broken right now, and possibly just as corrupt as our other institutions. You should not be putting faith in public polling, especially when the polling contradicts other historical indicators. I am hoping that this election will finally cause the industry to take a hard look at itself. But I doubt that it will. There is no downside to getting a poll wrong, you still get paid. And probably get paid more.

    316. Stonewall DW says:

      If they are true libertarians, who cherish first and foremost Freedom of Speech, they should vote Trump. Dems have already shown their hand that they plan to end free speech. Its already started.

    317. Jeff G. says:

      Georgia’s EV is 88.5% of the total vote from 2016. The electorate is 57% white. It was 60% white in 2016 exit polls. If they can push past that 60% threshold on election day voting, Georgia’s 16 EVs go to Trump.

    318. mnw says:

      325 Thx.

      324 Robbie

      OK. Thx for answering my question. I mean that sincerely. However, “I’ll go with she wins by 5 points or less” isn’t real consistent with “she’s likely to lose.”

      Now… You DO realize she won by 4+ points in 2018? With an off-year electorate? And without Trump at the top of the ballot?

      Look… I have the impression you have no real feel for MO politics. Try to think of MO; AR; & LA as being 3 peas in a pod, OK? It might help.

    319. wheelz91 says:

      Pritzker in a Illinois is closing bars and restaurants again
      on Sunday. Only to allow outside dining in November. What a joke!!! I’d like a side of frostbite with that please!!!

    320. mnw says:


      I’m trying to get one of my kids to teach me how to do that!

      Thx again.

    321. Robbie says:

      The graphic timeline of the Spanish flu is very interesting when compared to this corona. I’ve included a link to a Google image.

      What is shows is a small late June, early July wave, a very large Fall wave that began at the end of September that peaked by mid November and quickly declined by early December, and then one last smaller wave in February.

      Throw in the March/April wave and we’re tracking almost exactly with how the Spanish flu tracked.


    322. Jeff G. says:

      Great article. Thank you for posting it.

      I think the lesson is that Big Data is more predictive than polling. Trump’s campaign is using real data — a good example is polling the people who attend his rallies — to build voter profiles. The white working class voter had been an ignored demographic by both parties until Trump came along. There was a lot of potential to grow. Trump made it grow.

    323. Tina says:

      Great recovery or greatest economic recovery?


    324. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      321 – yes our senate candidates have been absolutely crushing the debates. Also, likely not the first time Lyin Lindsey has been dominated by a black man.

    325. Jeff G. says:

      Early vote in NV is D+4; the state was D+8 in 2016.

    326. Big Joe says:

      Let’s mix a national poll with early voting data.

      IBD National poll: https://www.investors.com/news/trump-vs-biden-poll-joe-biden-lead-grows-swing-states-tight-ibd-tipp-presidential-poll/

      Biden 50.5%
      Trump 44.9%
      Other 4.6%

      Key passage: “The new IBD/TIPP presidential poll, taken over five days, shows that 44% of voters have already cast ballots, including 58% of Biden voters and 31% of Trump supporters.”

      Per TargetSmart, almost 75M votes have been cast as of this morning. Since IBD is a 5-day tracking poll, I’ll use 74M instead.

      So a quick back-of-the-envelope yields the following:

      Total projected vote: 168.2M
      Biden total vote: 84.8M (50.5%)
      Trump total vote: 75.4M (44.9%)
      Other total vote: 7.8M (4.6%)

      Of the votes already cast (74M)
      Biden 49.18M (66%)
      Trump 23.37M (32%)

      Compare this to TargetSmart which is showing this “modeled party” breakdown of votes already cast:
      Republican 41.4%
      Democrat 48.5%
      Unaffiliated 10.1%

      TargetSmart’s “model party” breakdown is very different from what IBD is publishing.

      Of course, states matter, not national numbers. I’ll try to do similar projections using other polls as well (including state polls).


    327. Jeff G. says:

      CO was D+8 in 2016, but early vote is D+6. These improvements are in all battleground states (at the ones that have the partisan data available). Age demographics tell a lot, too. For example, in Michigan the 18-44 age group is 24.1% of the early vote electorate. It was 42% of the overall electorate in 2016, according to exit polls. The only age group Hillary won in 2016 was 18-29 by 26 points. Trump did OK with 30-44 and over 65 (+4 each), but +8 with 45-64. Unless the invisible army of young voters materializes in the next four days, Trump looks pretty good there.

    328. John says:

      Translate….what does it mean….in layman’s terms?

    329. Big Joe says:

      #329, Jeff G-

      You’ll want to be a bit more granular on the white vote in GA. Break it down by education.

      The white college-educated vote share has been increasing while the white non-college vote share has been decreasing.

      There are still a lot more total votes in the non-college whites bloc though.


    330. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      Am surprising a PPP poll would produce these numbers:
      Trump 50% (+2)
      Biden 48%
      @ppppolls/@314action(D) 10/28-29

    331. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      Baris has Biden up around 3 in WI. Sorry guys. Nice try.


    332. Big Joe says:

      #340, John-
      In layman’s terms, if IBD is correct, we are headed for record turnout with both Biden and Trump smashing the previous record for total votes (held by 2008 Obama).

      Beyond that, its up to you on how you interpret the numbers. The poll says a 5.6% national popular vote win for Biden. That should be enough to win the Electoral College but who knows.

      Oh and the discrepancy with TargetSmart’s modeling is concerning. I’ll do projections like these with a few more polls. If the discrepancy persists, then I’m going to have to re-evaluate how useful TargetSmart’s modeling really is.


    333. Jeff G. says:

      Absolutely, big joe, I have been searching for better breakdowns. According to 2016 exit polls, whites voters without a degress were +66 Trump while college-educated whites were +41. An increase in either demographic (at long as it not at the expense of the other) is a net gain for Trump. Yes, one is better than the other, but they’re both big pluses.

    334. Stacey Abrams says:

      2.7 – which is MOE and of course means Trump wins WI as well. Momentum’s obviosuly on Trump’s side.

      Thanks for posting this. Now go get me some KFC before I take a bite out of your white ass.

      Gatorbillyjoel says:
      October 30, 2020 at 11:55 pm
      Baris has Biden up around 3 in WI. Sorry guys. Nice try.


    335. Jeff G. says:

      SDC, that was in just NC-9.

    336. jason says:

      Baris has Biden up around 3 in WI.”

      Wow, big lead!

    337. mnw says:

      You guys make me wish I’d paid more attention in my HS algebra class… & that’s the last math class I ever had.

    338. mnw says:

      346 Lardasche (the jeans Stacey loves!)

      You mentioned “momentum.”

      What was the previous Trafalgar poll for WI, pls?

    339. jason says:

      The picture has become clear.

      GA, AZ, WI, NC, PA, and MI are flipping to Biden”

      So why are you still here?

    340. Big Joe says:

      #345, Jeff G-

      The white college-educated demographic in GA is one I’m watching closely.

      In 2016, it went from +41 Trump (as you posted) to +19 Kemp in 2018.


    341. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      348 jason – Baris is always going to get favorable R numbers. Meaning the lead there is likely 5-7.

    342. mnw says:

      334 Jeff G

      Fwiw, Dave in Florida says that he thinks Robert Barnes, who isn’t a pollster at all, has even more predictive value than Baris, whom Dave in Florida also admires greatly.

    343. michael corleone says:

      Uh oh. Final Washoe early vote margin is 1569 for the Ds. Was 1000 in 2016. Nevada is tight regardless of what Ralston claims.

    344. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      #2020Election #BattlegroundState #AZpoll conducted 10/25-28 shows undecideds starting to break and Trump still ahead:
      48.9% @realDonaldTrump
      46.4% @JoeBiden
      2.3% @Jorgensen4POTUS
      1.7% Other,
      0.7% Und.

    345. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      Arizona: Trump 48%, Biden 45%
      Thursday, October 29, 2020

      “President Trump has moved to a three-point lead over Democrat Joe Biden in Arizona just days before Election Day.

      A new Rasmussen Reports telephone and online survey of Likely Voters in Arizona shows Trump leading Biden 48% to 45%. Little over a week ago, the Democrat had a 48% to 46% advantage. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, while four percent (4%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

      Factor in those who haven’t made up their minds yet but are leaning toward one candidate or the other, and Trump gains a point, taking a 49% to 45% lead.”

    346. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      355. Sorry to say, but I believe Nevada is Republican fool’s gold. As I said before, I will believe it when I see it.

    347. michael corleone says:

      #358 – we won’t win Nv and Clark just reported and Rs were underwhelming (only gained 500). Statewide margin is around 42k. The big takeaway though is Rs look pretty good in NV as compared to 2016 and I think that bodes well for where DJT sits nationwide.

    348. MikeKS says:

      Baris does NOT have Biden winning Wisconsin by 2.7%. Please watch his show. He clearly indicated that margin was WITHOUT full respondents from the northeast heavy Trump part, and once they came in, it would be basically a dead heat.

    349. mnw says:

      360 MikeKS

      That’s a good catch, but.. are you sure the “Biden +2.7%” wasn’t posted AFTER the show you reference? In other words, that your info is current?


      Nervous in Missouri

    350. jason says:

      348 jason – Baris is always going to get favorable R numbers. Meaning the lead there is likely 5-7.”

      The troll is already learning to skew polls?


    351. Ridin' with Biden says:

      The time has come to call Nevada for Mr. Biden.

      Easy Peasy Master Breezy!

    352. mnw says:

      I told Dave in Florida that his AoS post (327) had been re-posted here.

      This is what he said in reply:

      “Heh, tried to go take a look at HHR. but only can find lots of poll results.

      Man, what a depressing place, the tracker up in the corner says Trump only gets 180 electoral votes.

      Glad I don’t go there, I would probably end up slitting my wrists. That is one heaping pile of BS there.

      Carnake on MSNBC is more upbeat about Trump.”

    353. mnw says:

      Ellison; “Trump has a real shot at winning MN.”

      Altho Ellison successfully limited Trump’S MN rally today to 250, there were several thousand lined up along the highway to greet him. Trump got out of The Beast, thanked them, & shook hands with many of them.

    354. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      306. Too many California Democrats have moved into Nevada. Las Vegas predominates, and the unions are very powerful.

      Do believe Sisolak is an unpopular governor, and is vulnerable when he is up for re-election.

    355. mnw says:


      From CNN:

      “Rep. Frederica Wilson (D-inc; FL-24) is trying to sound the alarm. She talked to Politico and said that what she’s seeing is very concerning to her. ‘I screamed, hollered.I called, I lobbied from the top to the bottom,’ Wilson said of her efforts to get the turnout operation started in the community [Miami], including sending written proposals to the Biden campaign and having virtual Zoom meetings with his advisors. She is worried because what she’s seeing, she says, in terms of the black community and Hispanics, ‘It’s not going Biden’s way.’ ”

      2016 deja vu all over again? “Union leaders in Milwaukee warn HRC she could lose WI.”

    356. Gordon Allen says:

      Liked the dave in Florida piece. DBLAIKIE,whose views I second,has been saying the same. I place great emphasis on the historically low response rate,which by itself almost assures non representative samples. We’ll find out November 3

    357. Sheeple,Jr. says:

      Jon Ralston has given himself a pep talk about Nevada.The three(3) big elephants in the room he refuses to acknowledge are:
      1) Election Day voting which should go heavily GOP
      2) The almost 300,000 unaffiliated early votes which will go Red by at least 10%,and
      3) Crossovers. Could go both ways, but registered Dem. union rank and file may be none too happy with the Donkeys at this time

      This race is balanced on the head of a pin!

      mwn– if your pal thinks that the HHR blog is depressing send him over to Red Racing Horses for suicidal depression!

    358. MartinMob says:

      ?????? ???????? ? ????? ????????? https://zaxvatu.net/ ?????? queens ??????

    359. jaichind says:


      From Jack Posobiec Twitter…

      Hill staffer just texted me, “KH ready to get back to the Senate”


      Could not one read that as Harris saying she is looking forward being the President of the Senate as VP?

    360. hugh says:

      Another good pickup in NC. Down 255K. Rep EV percentage a tick higher than 2016. the ED vote will overwhelm the dems like 2016.

    361. prineville says:

      trunalimunumaprzure That was classic biden when he uttered that word? yesterday. The old dementia laden coot is done. Hes cooked. Hes toast. His wife must be proud. She trots him out on stage to utter his incoherent ramblings and make a fool of himself. Just a couple more days and jill can shove the old guy down in the basement , hire a nurse to care for him, and go out and kick up her heels. Im sure coke freak hunter will keep her well funded in her sunset years.

    362. Wes says:

      Dems are now down to a 255,237-vote lead in NC early voting. Early voting ends today at 3.

      By the end of today, about 64-65% of registered Dems will have voted while 59-60% of registered Republicans will have voted.

      Given the fact NC will have about 3 million more voters left to cast ballots on Election Day with Republicans having a both a higher percentage of their voters and almost certainly an absolute greater number of voters to cast ballots on Election Day, that boxes well for Republicans.

    363. John says:

      According to the most recently released polls on Arizona it looks like Trump may be pulling away….
      Traflagar Trump +3
      Rasmussen Trump +4

    364. Smacks says:

      Oct 31st, 2020

      DEM: 1,633,754 37.50%
      GOP: 1,378,528 31.72%

      All Early Voting – North Carolina 2016 Final Results:

      DEM: 41.18%
      GOP: 31.80%

      Democrats not coming out to vote in either Florida, North Carolina and Nevada.

    365. Sheeple,Jr. says:

      In today’s polls:
      1) Down from its last poll a couple of weeks ago of Biden +7 in PA, Muhlenberg College/Morning Call has Biden +5. How did this pollster do in 2016?
      2) Thank You “Freakin” Joe Biden, but the Republican candidate in NM CD-2 has pushed ahead of the incumbent Democrat by 2 pts. Fracking is a big issue in this District.(Albuqurque Journal Poll).

    366. John says:

      I know that I earlier mentioned to bypass national polls at this stage but did however notice that narrowing has occured in today’s IBD/TIPP poll….49.5-44.7 Biden

    367. jason says:

      I haven’t clicked on Drudge in months, but I am glad it is heading for irrelevance.


    368. jason says:

      James Bond died.


    369. John says:

      379 follow up…Biden’s lead among independents now under 2 points….very significant….has gone down from +11, +8, +6, +4 and now under +2

    370. jason says:

      Interesting….. Nancy will have a fit.

      “WASHINGTON — A prominent Democratic congressman on Friday sent an email of support to Hunter Biden’s ex-business partner Tony Bobulinski, telling him he would defend him against slander in the media.

      The email from California Rep. Ro Khanna, a former Obama administration official and co-chair of Sen. Bernie Sanders’ presidential campaign, follows Bobulinski’s bombshell claims that he met Joe Biden and that the former vice president was involved in his son Hunter Biden’s shady overseas deals, first revealed by The Post.

      “Tony, hope you are doing okay,” Khanna wrote in a Friday morning email obtained by Fox News.

      “I did give an on the record statement to The NY Times that I know you, you have always acted honorably with me, and you and other family members supported me,” he went on.

      Records show that Bobulinski, a US Navy veteran, has donated $21,400 to Khanna since 2013.”

    371. jason says:

      What a nice guy…

      “Arizona Democratic Senate candidate Mark Kelly made an odd request years after his 2004 divorce: The famed astronaut petitioned a Texas court in 2010 to sentence his ex-wife to 6 months in jail and 10 years of supervised release after she moved to a new town a few miles outside of their children’s school district. . . . The documents, which include a temporary restraining order issued against Kelly in 2004, appear to contradict his description of the divorce as ‘amicable’ in his 2011 autobiography.”

    372. jason says:

      Jon Ralston has given himself a pep talk about Nevada.The three(3) big elephants in the room he refuses to acknowledge are:”

      I predicted Ralston would eventually conclude Dems will win, like he does every cycle, and you should ignore anything he says.

      Some here did not take the advice.

    373. Sheeple,Jr. says:

      Wes, Jeff P., SoHope
      Here are the early voting results for my County,Avery, in NW No. Carolina:

      Total Votes Cast- 5216
      Reps.- 3006(57.7%)
      Dems.- 689(13.0%)
      Una.- 1497(28.7%)–These will break 3:1 to the GOP

      The funny thing is that most voters here,like myself, vote on Election Day.

      Also, the total vote from very Liberal Buncombe County(Asheville) seems sluggish.

    374. SoHope says:

      Drudge was a sellout. I don’t want to judge him too harshly though without knowing how much he got. I would sign over my vote to Bernie Sanders for life for $100k.

    375. jason says:

      Could not one read that as Harris saying she is looking forward being the President of the Senate as VP?”


    376. MrVito says:

      Polk now GOP advantage and GOP overall in early vote. EV was slightly D in 2016.

    377. jason says:

      He got big $$$.

      Still, he should have taken his name off.

      Part of the deal I guess was to pretend it was still him so they wouldn’t lose viewers right away.

      I wonder if he couldn’t have auctioned it off to a conservative instead.

    378. jason says:

      I really like this James guy…

      “Kilmeade: John, great to see you. What is your message in the closing days, and are you going to be intimidated by President Obama coming to town?

      James: Look, I’m not intimidated by terrorists, I’m certainly not going to be intimidated by a politician. We want to talk about people who want to show up in an election year? Gary Peters is somebody who shows up in an election year looking for votes. But he’s been in politics for 30 years, been in Washington for 12, been in the Senate for 6.

      And to this day, after Democrats have spent $60 million against me, people in the state of Michigan still can’t put their fingers on a thing he’s done for them. Sen. Peters was 33% unknown until this year and 33% disapprove, that’s two out of every three voters who either don’t know him or don’t like him and so now he has to lie in order to try and beat me.

      I think if Gary Peters had spent as much time in non-election years doing his job and showing up for work, he wouldn’t be in the predicament where he is right now in a virtual tie with me.”

    379. Tina says:

      Really, a man in real estate getting depreciation? We already knew this.

      Quote Tweet

      The New York Times
      · 33m
      President Trump’s tax records obtained by The New York Times show that so-called depreciation losses and other tax breaks for the real estate industry embedded in federal tax law for a century helped reduce Trump’s income taxes. https://nyti.ms/3kHxvW8

    380. jason says:

      Joe Biden refers to Minnesota Trump supporters as “ugly folks”

    381. jason says:

      President Trump’s tax records obtained by The New York Times show that so-called depreciation losses and other tax breaks for the real estate industry embedded in federal tax law for a century helped reduce Trump’s income taxes.”

      Translation: Trump legally reduced his taxes using current tax laws like everyone else does.

    382. Tina says:

      C mon man

      Ugly chumps.

    383. jason says:

      Rumors are NYT and WAPO have damaging stories reserved for this weekend.

      Was that it?

    384. Tina says:

      Not sure Jason.

      It could have been miles the anonymous or the depreciarion, which everybody already knew.

    385. jason says:

      Trump (41%) and Biden ((67%) unchanged at Predictit this morning.

    386. prineville says:

      Joe Scarborough
      · 13h
      Republicans gained another 50,000 today in Florida. Democrats’ lead has been cut from 430,000 to about 110,000. Republicans have 2 days to pick up 25,000 more to outperform their 2016 numbers. Unless Ds stop the slide this weekend, Biden is in a bind in Florida.

    387. hugh says:

      any new revelations on trump do not matter. They have nothing more revolting to throw at trump then what they have already tried. the remaining undecided will continue to break for trump. why? because if you have seen all that has been said about trump and you are still deciding you are not going to vote on personality. If you were that voter your mind is made up. You will hold your nose and vote for what is in your best interest. for most people that is to vote for trump.

      Finally, there is nothing left to throw at trump. biden still has room to drop,

    388. hugh says:

      as of 7:43 we gained 5K today in FL. Good start. Probably beat 35k today. might give a little back tomorrow with souls to the polls and many red EV sites closed. Terrible weather in SE florida this morning.

    389. Bitterlaw says:

      RIP, Sean Connery.

    390. hugh says:

      Great actor. i think my favorite film of his was the man who would be king

    391. MrVito says:

      The GOP leads in In person voting in the counties open tomorrow by a fair amount.

    392. Scooterboy says:

      Hugh, are you still predicting a EC landslide for Trump?

    393. Gordon Allen says:

      Hugh. It’s sunny over here in SW Florida!

    394. SoHope says:

      Fav Sean Connery movies are The Hunt for Red October and The Untouchables.

    395. bartman says:

      Jason’s #390,

      I would love to see a election years comparison of Drudge visitors. Year to year shows only part of the story. That kind of drop in an election year is really amazing. My wife and I used to check Drudge all day long everyday and now we’ve removed it from favorites and haven’t checked in for months. Sadly, what we’ve replaced it with is untrustworthy.

      Fox News will learn the same lesson if they’re not going to report ALL the news.

    396. SoHope says:

      You wanna know how to get Capone? They pull a knife, you pull a gun. He sends one of yours to the hospital, you send one of his to the morgue. That’s the Chicago way!

    397. hugh says:

      I am predicting that the race will either be close or and electoral landslide. If it is a electoral landslide it will be for trump.

    398. prineville says:

      One of the more entertaining scenarios that will develop quickly after trumps victory will be the absolute vicious civil war that will develop within the democrat party. It will be a sight to behold. The knives will be on display and the fingernails will be sharpened. It will be an ugly brutal battle. Nancy will be tossed to the side like a used up rag doll. AOC will be looking to clean house and along with her laughable “squad” begin the attempted takeover. Schumer will be toast. The old wretched dem guard will be chewed up and spit out. Bring on the fun. It will be great entertainment.

    399. hugh says:

      Scooter. If NC holds today which it should and we again seen a decent gain yesterday in AZ. I find it hard to believe that we will not pick up at least 2 of the 4 PA, MI, WI or MN.

      Either enthusiasm matters or it doesnt. Also in WI you can register at the polls. I think for once that benefits us with our ground game and the dems afraid of covid.

    400. Tina says:

      Billy Newby
      NC Early Vote and VBM Update

      261,459 ballots cast (23,779 VBM and 237,680 in person)

      GOP 1,378,537 (31.7% vs 31.5% prior day)
      Dem 1,633,774 (37.6% vs 38.1% prior day)
      UNA 1,310,505 (30.2% vs 29.9% prior day)

      GOP won the total vote yesterday 92,029 to 77,291

    401. Smack says:

      All Early Voting – Florida

      Oct 31st / 9:16am

      DEM: 3,297,939 39.43%

      GOP: 3,190,254 38.15%

      Final 2016 FL All Early Voting
      DEM: 39.80%
      GOP: 38.34%

    402. hugh says:

      The 8:03 dump we picked up another 1200 total 6300 today. Tracking at about 3600 per hour. will pick up midday.

    403. Tina says:

      Larry Schweikart
      D lead falls to 255,000 (2016 they led by 310,000 and lost by 3.8 points).

      Black vote fell for 6th straight day to 19.4%, down from 21% in 2016.

    404. ruru says:

      North Carolina:

      Early voting ends at 3 pm today in NC. It would appear that when all is said and done that EV will be within 100k of the total vote last time.

      If you assume the total vote is up 5% from 2016 that would say about 300/350k additional vote on Tuesday.

      If you heroically said up 10% – the might say 700k votes on tuesday.

      NC looks tighter than 2016 on paper at this point?

    405. hugh says:

      Maybe the wind and the lion was his best film. i have to think it over.

    406. hugh says:

      ruru. tighter than 2016 in NC. What is your logic? Black vote down. % of dem to rep EV down. Trump has a ground game, biden does not. BTW many older dems vote rep in NC. I dont see your logic at all.

    407. Smack says:



    408. jason says:

      We need NC, PA and AZ to win according to this map.


    409. Tina says:

      Actually, it looks better this time around in Nc.

      Blacks are down.

      Margin went from 310000 to 2550000.

      But Wes needs to comment.

    410. Pitchaboy says:

      7 million RV in NC. Only 4.5 have voted.

    411. ruru says:

      Agree with you on the Black vote. If that ends up down say 2 percentage points – well that does equate to about 2 percentage points positive for Trump. Huge.

      I’m more looking at the total vote item.

      Everyone is pretty excited about the fact the EV lead is being cut down etc.. yep, better than the alternative. BUT – if we are within 100k of the total vote in 2016 – quite frankly if the total vote is up 5% this year in NC – then you’ve got to win that massively.

      I’m just concerned that the election day vote will dissapoint in terms of absolute numbers? It’s been cannibalized more than we think?

      I’m posting to better inform myself – so please push back. I like it.

    412. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      Lead is closer for Dems than 4 years ago, but significantly more vote. As Ruru said, we are closing in on the total amount of votes cast in 2016 just in the early vote in North Carolina. Not many votes left to make up the deficit for you all.

    413. albertus magnus says:

      I am unaware of a single Trump voters from 2016 who is not supporting him this year here in NC.

      I know of at least 10 personal friends/acquaintances who did not vote in 2016 but who have already voted for the President.

      I have received at least 5x as many voter contacts this year from the GOP/Trump campaign than I did in 2016.

      Looking at history, Obama won NC in 2008 by the narrowest of margins….and couldnt beat Romney.

      The President is going to win NC by 2-4 points, in my opinion.

    414. ruru says:

      425 – yep, but about 4.75 million voted in 2016 – up a few hundred thousand from 2012. So, perhaps you say 5.1 million vote this year. That’s only about 300/400k over where EV will end today?

    415. hugh says:

      Enthusiasm means something or it doesnt. Ground game means something or it doesnt. The Dem narrative changes as needed as the vbm campaign failed. What didnt fail is turning the dems into the party of covid cowards. Reps will swamp ED voting more so than in the past. Unless we are now to believe that dems will swamp ED voting. Oh but all those reps who voted for trump in the fl primary are now crossing over to vote for demented joe. NC after today will be over. Florida gone gone gone. AZ will be as well. Then biden has to sweep mn, mi wi and pa. Not gonna happen.

      Gator needs a class in arithmetic

    416. Wes says:

      By the end of early voting today, 4.5 Tarheels will have voted. There are still 3 million votes left for Tuesday with more Republicans available to vote that day.

      Do the math, people.

    417. GatorBJ says:

      TX AZ NC OH FL gone. GONE. NV may be next.

      And it’s only SATURDAY MORNING!!!

    418. Tina says:

      I am not finding the “claim” that Rs are crossing over to Biden.

      While there could be crossover voting, it cannot be much. And Trump gets some of it his way too. Here why?

      Gallup 95 percent approval. By Rs. What was it in 2016?

      Large primary votes.

      Registration increases.

    419. Smack says:

      Democrats are having Early Voting turnout issues with some parts of their coalition, namely Blacks and Hispanics.

      Will this turnout issue for Democrats be solved on Election Day turnout?


      Will this turnout issue be solved for the Democrats with GOP Senior Republican + GOP Suburban White crossing over to vote for Biden on Election Day?

      We shall see….but for Biden to get to 270 his pathway is different than HRC’s.

    420. Tina says:

      ning Collision symbol Retweeted

      This was a gutsy and politically risky move for the President on the near eve of an election.

      That’s probably why we’ve consistently shown a large lead for him over Biden on trust to handle terrorism/national security issues.

      Consequently, why
      allowed FP to be ignored.
      Quote Tweet

      Donald J. Trump
      · 1h
      Big win for our very elite U.S. Special Forces today. Details to follow!

    421. Tina says:

      Follow up to my previous comment

      NBC News
      · 2h
      BREAKING: Pentagon: U.S. forces have conducted a hostage rescue operation in northern Nigeria “to recover an American citizen held hostage by a group of armed men. This American citizen is safe” and “no U.S military personnel were injured during the operation.” – @ckubeNBC

    422. Gatorjoel says:

      But Wes , how many people of the remaining registered voters will actually vote? Maybe 10 percent, 20 percent. Making up the deficit that exists for DJT is daunting!! He is gonna lose!!

    423. The Godfather says:

      Don’t agree that Trump will do worse in suburbs especially with Women.

      I think he will gain women- why? The riots they all see on TV and lockdowns that are keeping schools closed. Other factor Gun ownership among women is up. They live in suburbs also. They not voting for Joe, who will take those rights away.

    424. ruru says:

      434 – Smack: Yes!! That is the question. Well said.

      And I don’t have a good feel for that answer.

    425. Pitchaboy says:

      GatorBoy: I am willing to bet over a million will vote on Tuesday. On that day it will be R swamping D.

    426. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      The mental gymnastics on here is amazing. Apparently. Roth Carolina is now going to have 100% turn out and that’s how Rumps going to make up his deficit. Got it.

    427. Tina says:

      I cannot link the abc article about the daring hostage recovery in Nigeria.

      Seal Team 6!

      “They were all dead before they knew what happened.”

      With Trump, the world knows that harming an American has consequences, whether you’re a terrorist leader like al-Baghdadi or Soleimani, or these now-deceased kidnappers in Niger/Nigeria Flag of United States

    428. Tina says:

      Between Miles the Anonymous Fed worker and Kampala supporter, and this? Major fail.

      John Cardillo Retweeted

      Kurt Schlichter
      The last minute hit is that
      used century old depreciation rules to legally reduce his taxes?

    429. Gatorjoel says:

      If the lead is 250 to 300 k, Trump will need to win Election Day voters 65/35 and that seems very unlikely and that assumes a Million vote then. Plus you have delayed mail in ballots. Good luck w that!

    430. Tina says:

      Trump War Room – Text TRUMP to 88022
      Asked about the evidence of corrupt foreign deals on his son Hunter’s laptop, Joe Biden falsely claims “there’s nothing to any of that, it’s all a smear” from Russia.

      FACTS: The laptop is verified as authentic. While Biden claims Hunter “broke no laws,” the FBI is investigating.


    431. Gordon Allen says:

      Albertus Magnus. That’s why I think Trump’s floor in a 4 way race is basically 46. Add in increased black and Hispanic support I don’t see how he doesn’t reach 48 at least. McCain and Romney got 46+47%. If 3-4 go ” other” then How does Biden get better than 49- at best? It could only be if large numbers of Trump 2016 cross over with basically 0% crossover from HRC voters. Am I missing something,other than the ” polls”?

    432. Wes says:

      Dems have won every early voting period since 2010 by at least 250k votes. They’ve lost every major election with the exception of the 2016 gubernatorial race in that time period.

      Even McCain narrowed the Dem advantage of 675k early votes to 530k in 2008.

      History in no way suggests the continually narrowing Dem early vote lead is insurmountable for the NCGOP.

    433. jason says:

      I am predicting that the race will either be close or and electoral landslide. If it is a electoral landslide it will be for trump.”

      All right!

      I actually cut down on scrapple, slab bacon, ham and pork chops this weekend because I don’t want to have a heart attack before Tuesday.

      Any sacrifice for Trump!

    434. Tina says:

      Florida down to 105,000 and change.

    435. MrVito says:

      The actual lead may already be gone.

      By modeling, the lead in NC is less than 70000, and it isn’t up to date,

    436. jason says:

      I would like to see a poll of people who returned Dem ballots to see how many actually voted for Biden.

    437. Wes says:

      Mental gymnastics?

      Turnout in this state is about 60% right now. It won’t take too much effort to get close to 70% on Election Day, especially with Republicans emphasizing turnout then over early voting.

    438. jason says:

      I think maybe defunding the police and failing to control the looting and riots scared some Dems into voting for Trump.

      We will see.

    439. Dylan says:

      I love listening to the pablum from the talking heads:

      “Biden is in a better position than Clinton was in 2016 in MI and PA”

      “Trump is outperforming his 2016 enthusiasm in MI”


    440. Tina says:


      Trump is now doing 4 rallies in Pa today.

      Bucks County


    441. Tina says:

      Wes, is it fair to assume that trump will get a larger crossover from legacy Ds.

      What about indies?

    442. jason says:

      None are close to me or I would go.

    443. Tina says:

      Pence is in Nc today, 2 stops.

      Elm city
      Elizabeth city.

    444. Will says:

      New Hanover County, NC is at 108K votes. There were 112K in 2016. I think the number of Dems voting to date is down compared to Reps. The Unaffiliated voters outnumber both. Not sure what to make of this but I am unaffiliated and voted DJT.

      As Wes has said, this county is a bellwether in NC. It is hard to get a feeling for how Trump is doing. Signs pop up and are quickly destroyed or stolen. The county GOP continues to put them up. Tillis signs are equally vulnerable. I can report that there have been numerous, large car and boat parades over the last two months.

      I believe the Trump enthusiasm is significantly greater in neighboring
      Pender and Brunswick counties.

    445. PresidentPaul! says:

      Former NY Fed chief: Central bank’s ability to stimulate economy ‘rapidly diminishing’


    446. Wes says:

      It depends on how many rural or exurban DINOs are voting on the first question, Tina, though history indicates Republicans get more crossover from Democrats than vice versa.

      Indies are a normally GOP voting bloc in NC, even supporting McCain over Obama in 2008. Triangle Indies tend to be heavily Dem, but outside that area, they’re more likely to support Republicans.

    447. Tina says:

      Thanks, wes.

      You answered my questions

    448. jaichind says:

      The next NYT bombshell on Trump will be “… anonymous sources indicate that the accountant that worked on Trump’s tax forms has a Russian sounding name …”

    449. Tina says:

      Larry Schweikart
      According to Fat Frank Luntz, Trump pollster ”
      is privately telling people that Trump is ahead in ALL the swing states–including Penn & Michigan, & tied in Wisconsin.”

      Baris & Trafalgar have it tied or within MOE in WI. Trafalgar has Trump up in MI. Baris has PA tie.

    450. Stonewall DW says:

      102902 gap in FL. Dem Black Friday extends another day.

    451. Gordon Allen says:

      Joe Biden would have done the same thing!! Like how he pushed for the Bin Laden raid!!Oh…he didn’t?

    452. Wes says:

      The current breakdown from early voting in New Hanover is as follows:

      36,893 I

      36,021 R

      34,427 D

      Republicans currently hold a voting edge in that county of 1,594 votes, up from 854 yesterday.

      Obviously the Indies will be the difference makers, but that looks promising for Republicans.

    453. hugh says:

      as of 9:23 Fl gain is 11K. It should be a 35K + vote day gain. maybe more. still pouring and storming in SE Florida.

    454. hugh says:

      how about that dems losing frank luntz who was on tv this week saying trump has no chance. ha

      Chump chump!!

    455. Tina says:

      With respect to Covid, I think Trump may have negated the issue with. It advocating for a national mask mandate, having better therapeutics/vaccine around the corner, and not calling for lockdowns again.

      China Biden went full Fauci yesterday in Minnesota, when he got triggered by the large gathering of Trump supporters that infiltrated his rally.

    456. Wes says:

      By the way, as Will noted, New Hanover is the state’s traditional bellwether.

      For example, it voted for Trump and Burr for President and Senate respectively in 2016 while voting for Cooper for Governor.

      I expect Trump, Tillis, and Cooper to carry the county and the state this year.

    457. Tina says:

      With the fact that the eu took over us in the number of cases, it’s hard to say that masks even work,

      Funny that there is a danish study on masks that is being hidden for now.

      The cdc lard arse claims that masks are better than vaccines.

    458. hugh says:

      here is the full tweet from luntz. my comment is this if JMcLghln is right. will Luntz ever find work again. what a putz

      Trump pollster
      is privately telling people that Trump is ahead in ALL the swing states – including Penn and Michigan, and tied in Wisconsin.

      I don’t believe it. But if he’s right, he’s a genius. If he’s wrong, I wonder if he’ll ever work again.

    459. Will says:


      Do you have breakdown numbers from 2016 in NHC?

      The civitas site doesn’t have ED data.

    460. Stonewall DW says:

      Leftists have already started pushing the narrative that if Trump somehow wins, it means the fix was in and he stole it, because of THE POLLING. This is why they have been desperate to silence Trafalgar, Susquehanna, Big Data Poll and Rasmussen.

      Those four especially expose the lie that Biden is running away with this.

    461. albertus magnus says:

      I concur with Wes that Trump, Tillis and Cooper win in NC.

    462. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      First you all said there’s not new enthusiasm. Now a million additional voters from 2016 are expected – and needed – in NC for Rump to have a chance. Gold medal in mental gymnastics.

    463. Stonewall DW says:

      au ng
      #FL #EarlyVoting Targetsmart update: As I expected, the model has flipped and now shows an R lead for the first time by 0.3 pts. It will continue to grow. You can think of ED as IPEV x 5 to 8. It will end up around R +4 pts. A 3-4 pt win for Trump is quite likely!

    464. Wes says:

      I haven’t been able to find a breakdown of early voting versus Election Day data from 2016, Will. Trump did carry New Hanover by about 4,000 votes that year though.

    465. Stonewall DW says:

      Jack Posobiec
      Hill staffer just texted me, “KH ready to get back to the Senate”

    466. Wes says:

      Is Gatorbillyjoel a DNC troll or a troll of Gatorjoel?

    467. Tina says:

      Anything onTexas? I don’t know if Phil has posted lately?

      I did see the target smart post from Cotto about how ev ended.

    468. jaichind says:

      Gravis Marketing poll

      Has Trump approval at 52/47 but Biden ahead 50-44. Very weird. Biden favorable/unfavorable are at 59/38 which would explain the head-to-head result.

    469. Stonewall DW says:

      4365 was the margin for Trump in 2016 in New Hanover county.

    470. Dylan says:

      481–couldn’t that mean as president of the senate in the role of VP?….

    471. Marv says:

      Good morning folks.

      The Democracy Institute/ UK Sunday Express final poll will be released tomorrow.

    472. Stonewall DW says:

      484 – that won’t age well.

      No way an incumbent at 52% approval gets thrown out of office because they like even better an old clown whose platform is to mobilize trunalimunumaprzure.

    473. dblaikie says:

      Hello fellow posters and trolls. Here are my thoughts. First on the silver state. Forget Ralston’s Clark County firewall. The bottom line is that the dems will have around 40000 advantage going into election day. The huge question is will trends continue to follow the early in person vote? If so the dems are in trouble. The second question is did the dems cannibalize their vote by the mail in ballots. If so the dems are in deeper trouble. The third question is the democratic vote different than in 2016? Has Trump made in roads with Blacks and Hispanics? The answers to those questions will be revealed as the votes are counted.

      We can now say something determinative about the current polling. In light of the early in person vote in Florida, Arizona, and NC any poll that shows Trump behind more than 5 points should be trashed! All the trends and I mean all of them show a tight race. Trump may loose but if he does it is going to be close. I do believe that Iowa, Ohio, Florida, NC, and Arizona are looking good for Trump. Michigan, Pa, Nevada, Wisconsin, Minnesota, are close. It is my belief that Trump will get at least some of them.

      Finally I think it is telling that Biden is only going to Michigan and Pennsylvania. Those states are their last stand. This reveals that the states that are looking good for Trump is a solid conjecture.

    474. Robbie says:

      Frank Luntz
      Trump pollster @JMcLghln is privately telling people that Trump is ahead in ALL the swing states – including Penn and Michigan, and tied in Wisconsin.

      I don’t believe it. But if he’s right, he’s a genius. If he’s wrong, I wonder if he’ll ever work again.

      – I know others have posted this tweet, but I have a couple of thoughts about it.

      First, McLoughlin is Netanyahu’s pollster and he correctly called the Israeli 2015 election when others expected Bibi to lose.

      However, McLaughlin was also the pollster with whom Dick Morris worked in 2012 and led to Morris’ call that Romney would win a landslide. He and Morris misjudged the composition of the electorate.

      Second, Neil Newhouse was Romney’s pollster in 2012 and told people privately Romney was ahead in Ohio and a few other states that he lost. Newhouse continues to be one of the most respected Republican pollsters so even if McLaughlin is wrong, I doubt his career is over.

    475. hugh says:

      gravis can suck it!! no chance biden wins with an obama margin. This stuff is too funny. When trump wins the pollster charade will be dead for good. nothing but political charlatans. no standards, no transparency, no integrity.

    476. SoHope says:

      About to break -100k in all early voting

    477. dblaikie says:

      Gravis has been trashing Trump’s chances from the beginning. I view this poll as an effort to keep a little credibility post election. it is a smart number if not an accurate one. Trump loses by 2 or 3 points but wins the electoral college they can say we weren’t that off. Polling is broken.

    478. Wes says:

      SoHope, do you expect Forest to have a respectable loss against Cooper?

    479. SoHope says:

      I’d love for Forrest to win. Everyone thinks he will lose but but who knows lockdown is unpopular. We shall see.

    480. jason says:

      So Gravis at 50-44?

      So let’s see give Trump half the undecided and he is at 47, which I think wins the EC.

      Yeah, I know, Jorgensen.

    481. Wes says:

      I’d love to see Forest win too. I don’t consider his victory anything but a remote possibility though.

    482. SoHope says:

      Trump +5 approval wins reelection period

    483. Stonewall DW says:


    484. jason says:

      Is Gatorbillyjoel a DNC troll or a troll of Gatorjoel?”


      But give him a break, according to Transparent Dem Troll he is doing this pro-bono, they had to cut out the lowest performing trolls due to budget constraints.

    485. SoHope says:

      I didnt see a Trump win in 2016 as even remotely possible. The polling world is upside-down. We will see how screwy the polls are and how wide-spread it goes. I wouldn’t put money on Forrest though.

    486. Trumpence33 says:

      NC 2016 D turnout was 68% and R turnout was 75% of registered voters and Trump carried the state by 3-4 points.

      I don’t think 2020 will be exactly the same, but I think we all agree that the R’s will turnout at a higher percentage (tied right now at around 61) after more R’s vote today and on Election Day than D’s.

      That said, even if R’s crush it again on turnout and it were to be 75 to 68 (or close to) the D’s would still have a big ballot lead of over 100k.

      Based on 2020 registration

      75% of 2222000 =1666000
      68% 2618000 =1780000

      The point is, Democrat’s could have a ballot lead of 100-150k after polls close …but when all the votes are counted Trump could still carry the state comfortably. Let’s not worry too much about the D ballot lead in nc.

    487. SoHope says:

      #499 Thats 170 in binary

    488. jason says:

      I don’t know this guy, but he makes a good case


    489. SoHope says:

      I mean 46 in binary
      46th president?

    490. Wes says:

      #502, I think all our NC posters have been saying exactly that.

    491. jason says:

      Finally I think it is telling that Biden is only going to Michigan and Pennsylvania.”

      Yeah, not exactly “expanding the playing field”.

    492. jason says:

      NC, PA and AZ.

      Got to win all three.

      The rest is gravy.

    493. DanTexan says:

      Texas said no thanks to Biden – “The “Biden bus tour canceled the rest of its Texas tour because more Trump supporters showed up than Biden supporters- not harassment. They canceled Abilene, Amarillo, Lubbock, Port Arthur, Houston, Laredo they had 14 stops!!! They got shut out EVERYWHERE!!”

      The comments are priceless


    494. hugh says:

      99641 dem lead in FL. Should be below 70K by end of day.

    495. Stonewall DW says:

      And Dems are still burning through their super voters at a faster clip.

    496. TIna says:

      It seems like ja is about 51/52.

    497. Tina says:


      Jack Posobiec VOTE ??
      Welcome to Texas
      Quote Tweet

      · 1h
      ICYMI: The Biden bus tour canceled the rest of its Texas tour because more Trump supporters showed up than Biden supporters- not harassment. They canceled Abilene, Amarillo, Lubbock, Port Arthur, Houston, Laredo they had 14 stops!!! They got shut out EVERYWHERE!!

    498. JeffS says:

      Breaking!: Biden’s mystery phrase “trumfalazelijhdzctydgjki” is hidden message just decoded as “F**k fracking” There have been, as of yet, no denials from the Biden campaign.

    499. Stonewall DW says:

      I guess I can’t blame Biden supporters and the trolls here for wanting to see the mobilization of trunalimunumaprzure. I mean NO PRESIDENT has ever done this before. And in fact, Biden might just be the last president ever with the unique qualifications to mobilize trunalimunumaprzure.

    500. Stonewall DW says:


    501. BayernFan says:

      massive GOP turnout in Florida rural areas in 2016 was adjudged to be harbinger of the same in PA, Mich, Ohio, WI, Iowa etc. I assume the same is true now.

      In 2016, Todd Young’s easy and early win over Evan Bayh in Indiana may also have been indicative. In that vein, keep an eye on IN-05, a supposed battleground to replace retiring Susan Brooks (inc R). The Democrats have poured a ton of cash to get Christina Hale elected. GOP Victoria Spartz doesn’t talk much in her ads bc she has a very thick Ukrainian accent. She has also flooded the airwaves.

      So if Spartz wins easily and early, that may be a harbinger as well, given that a large portion of the district is rural north of Indianapolis.
      RCP rates it as a tossup. tbh I don’t know why as that district has always been strong GOP.

    502. Smack says:

      All Early Voting – Florida

      Oct 31st / 11:32am

      DEM: 3,327,038 39.34%

      GOP: 3,228,547 38.18%

      Final 2016 FL All Early Voting
      DEM: 39.80%
      GOP: 38.34%

    503. Cash Cow TM says:

      James Bond dead?

      Bet money that Trump and the Russians did it.

    504. SoHope says:


      Lazier Nut Murmur A Pun

    505. Tina says:

      Cari Kelemen
      · 1h
      Today’s 14-stop Biden Rally Texas Tour: CANCELLED
      Too many Trump supporters were showing up ??

    506. jaichind says:

      523. But PPP poll has Biden ahead by 2 in TX. That is how much we can trust PPP polls.

    507. Stonewall DW says:

      When Trump does much better than expected on election night, the media will stir up civil unrest claiming Trump stole the election because NONE of the polling showed what was to happen. It is important that we keep the polling below in mind. In fact, given the margin of error, I could greatly expand this list to include all the polls showing a Biden lead of 2 or less, or even 3 or less. A Trump win can even be found in the polling, just not in the polling officially approved by the NY Times and Silver.

      Pollsters that show Trump leads, or ties:

      GA: Landmark Communications (+1), Emerson College (+1), YouGov (tie), Siena/NY Times (tie), Morning Consult (tie), Data for Progress (tie)
      FL: AtlasIntel (tie), Susquehanna (+5), Tyson Group (+2), Rasmussen (+4), Swayable (+5), Trafalgar (+3), HarrisX (tie), Insider Advantage (+3), Democracy Institute (+4), Big Data Poll (+2), ABC News/Washington Post (+4), Suffolk U (tie)
      AZ: Rasmussen (+4), Susquehanna (+1), Big Data Poll (+3), IPSOS (tie), Morning Consult (+1), Trafalgar (+3), Targoz (+1), Basswood Research (tie), ABC News/Washington Post (+1)
      NC: Cardinal Point (+2), Trafalgar (+3), Rasmussen (+2), UMass-Lowell (tie), SurveyUSA (tie), Emerson College (tie)
      PA: Trafalgar (+1), Insider Advantage (+3), Big Data Poll (tie)
      MI: Zia Polling (+4), Trafalgar (+2.5)
      WI: Big Data Poll (tie), Susquehanna (tie), Trafalgar (tie)
      NH: Democracy Institute (+2)
      MN: Democracy Institute (+2)

    508. Stonewall DW says:


    509. Cash Cow TM says:

      SC U.S. Senate Race

      Bill Bledsoe is also on the ballot for U.S. senator [along with Graham (R) and Harrison (D)] as the Constitution Party candidate for U.S. Senate.

      “Bledsoe dropped out of the race at the first of the month [Oct] and endorsed Graham. His name cannot be taken off the ballot, however, because he suspended his campaign after the deadline to get his name taken off the ballot had passed.”


      But the Harrison campaign [actually super PAC run by Lincoln Project and allies of Chuck Schumer] has put up TV ads in SC pushing conservative voters to vote Bledsoe instead of Graham and thus bleed votes from Graham.

      One of the dirty tricks Dems are using there…

    510. Cash Cow TM says:

      “Stonewall DW says:
      October 31, 2020 at 12:52 pm
      When Trump does much better than expected on election night, the media will stir up civil unrest claiming Trump stole the election because NONE of the polling showed what was to happen.”

      I recently opined the same thought to Walt and Mrs. Walt.

      I said the media is pushing that the election of Biden is a one deal. If (when?) Trump wins, LOTS of D supporters will be livid and take to the street to loot pillage and burn.

      I am halfway hoping that instead of burning police cars, the rioters burn all the TV news crew vans since the MSM lit the false narrative fuse that will certainly touch off yet another senseless round of mayhem in the cities.

    511. Cash Cow TM says:


      Perhaps the MSM and bettors on the election betting results dumping big money that Biden wins know that the voting machines have already been “compromised” and that rural counties in FLA, GA, PA, NC, MI, MN, WI, AZ, NV OH will come in with vote counts similar to inner city Philadelphia, Boston and Chicago.
      If that is TRUE….let me be the first to congratulate

      President Kamala Harris!

    512. Cash Cow TM says:


      Where did everyone go?

      Is the Rapture happening?!?!

    513. JeffP says:

      519 IN-05 is my district. I will be watching results for ours and Vigo County as soon as the polls close.

    514. Stonewall DW says:


    515. Cash Cow TM says:



      New Thread!