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    PPP Says Biden Leads in MN and TX, Trafalgar Says Trump Leads in AZ

    Public Policy Polling has out what I assume is their final call for the states of Minnesota and Texas, both showing Joe Biden ahead of Donald Trump.

    PRESIDENT – TEXAS (PPP)
    Joe Biden (D) 50%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 48%

    PRESIDENT – MINNESOTA (PPP)
    Joe Biden (D) 54%
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 43%

    US SENATE – MINNESOTA (PPP)
    Tina Smith (D-inc) 51%
    Jason Lewis (R) 42%

    This poll was done October 28-29 among voters in each state. Meanwhile, The Trafalgar Group has staked their claim that Donald Trump will take the state of Arizona.

    PRESIDENT – ARIZONA (Trafalgar)
    Donald Trump (R-inc) 49%
    Joe Biden (D) 46%

    This poll was done October 25-28 among 1002 likely voters. One item of note I just realized when try to find the link for this poll, The Trafalgar Group is found at thetrafalgargroup.org. If you try thetrafalgagrgroup.com, you get a surprise….

    Posted by Dave at 12:36 pm
    Filed under: General | Comments (363)

    363 Responses to “PPP Says Biden Leads in MN and TX, Trafalgar Says Trump Leads in AZ”

    1. michael corleone says:

      One pollster has a horrible record and the other an excellent. But let’s treat them as equivalent.

    2. prineville says:

      Biden leads Trump in texas? Utterly ridiculous. Just another reason why after this election the polling industry is dead.

    3. Gordon Allen says:

      PPP stands for propaganda cubed for the Democratic Party. And Wissing knows that.

    4. Phil says:

      Another Texas poll that won’t age well.

    5. chris says:

      Why look at polls that have maybe 1,000 people when we can look the data from tens of millions of actual ballots cast?

    6. Smack says:

      All Early Voting Florida
      ———

      Oct 31st / 11:52am

      DEM: 3,331,491 39.33%

      GOP: 3,233,752 38.18%

      Final 2016 FL All Early Voting
      DEM: 39.80%
      GOP: 38.34%

    7. Big Joe says:

      Texas has already exceeded it’s total turnout from 2016. Very difficult to tell what’s going on there.

      30% of voters who have cast ballots in TX did not vote in 2016.

      BJ

    8. prineville says:

      Zerohedge “From Midtown To Portland, Businesses Are Boarding Up In Anticipation Of Election Night Chaos”
      Im sure their not worried about the Trump voters rioting and burning and looting and destroying. Hmmm….must be their expecting the biden folk to seek destruction once the fat lady sings. Get your AR locked and loaded.

    9. Tina says:

      Larry Schweikart
      @LarrySchweikart
      ·
      20m
      1) “Freeper” bort joins Freeper byecomey as an absolute treasure. Look at bort’s results from TX on the supposed “revolt of the suburbs”:

      Hays Co. 2016 (tie); 2020 45/39 (Trump +6)
      Williamson 2016 (Trump +9); 2020 54/30 (Trump +14)
      Denton 2016 (Trump +20); 2020 64/23 (Trump +40)

    10. Sheeple,Jr. says:

      Wissing’s selection of PPP/Jensen Polls two(2) days before the close of the election(maybe) is distasteful. To wit:

      1) In this election cycle, PPP/Jensen had not polled Texas at all.
      2) For some reason, the Texas Senate race was not polled. Why? This is a fly by night poll to try to demoralize the GOP base IMHO.
      3) With respect to MN, PPP/Jensen felt that he had to counter the recent polls which show Trump and Lewis closing fast.During this election cycle, every time a GOP No. Carolina favorable poll was released, PPP/Jensen would follow within a day or two with a NC Poll showing sizable Democrat leads.

    11. Sheeple,Jr. says:

      #7- Joe
      What is your source for the 30%? I bet it’s a “model” by TargetSmart.

    12. MrVito says:

      It is pretty cut and dry whether they voted in 2016.

      They are modeled 45-39 R by TargetSmart.

    13. albertus magnus says:

      It is also telling that PPP polled “voters” not registered voters or likely voters.

      The only thing worse that polling companies that produce results solely for narrative crafting by their clients are pundits who pretend these polls are legitimate.

      At least the polling companies get paid for their BS.

    14. Pitchaboy says:

      Big Joe: I love u man but TX is a 8 to 12 point whipping for the Zombie.

    15. Tina says:

      Wow, if they polled adults only, their polls are garbage, as is their reputation.

    16. Big Joe says:

      #11, Sheep-

      It’s TargetSmart, but not a modeled figure (I don’t think). Here’s the URL where you can see: https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/index.html?view_type=State&demo=Voted%20in%202016&demo_val=All&state=TX

      As Mr. V just posted, the “Did not vote in 2016” crowd is modeled as 45R-39D-16U whereas the “Did vote in 2016” crowd is modeled as 54R-39D-7U.

      Of course, the modeling figures need to be taken with lumps of salt.

      BJ

    17. Smack says:

      All Early Voting – Florida
      ———-

      Oct 31st / 12:16pm

      DEM: 3,335,854 39.32%

      GOP: 3,238,633 38.18%

      DEM: + 97221

      Final 2016 FL All Early Voting
      DEM: 39.80%
      GOP: 38.34%

      Disaster in Florida for the Democrats.

    18. Big Joe says:

      #14, Pitch-

      “Big Joe: I love u man”

      Thanks, man. I love you too. 😀 <3

      I'm not making a call, I just said its hard to tell what's going on in Texas.

      2016 Trump +9
      2018 Cruz +3

      2020 is likely to be in between Trump +3 to +7 if I were to hazard a guess.

      BJ

    19. Cash Cow TM says:

      Cash Cow TM says:
      October 31, 2020 at 1:04 pm
      “Stonewall DW says:
      October 31, 2020 at 12:52 pm
      When Trump does much better than expected on election night, the media will stir up civil unrest claiming Trump stole the election because NONE of the polling showed what was to happen.”

      I recently opined the same thought to Walt and Mrs. Walt.

      I said the media is pushing that the election of Biden is a one deal. If (when?) Trump wins, LOTS of D supporters will be livid and take to the street to loot pillage and burn.

      I am halfway hoping that instead of burning police cars, the rioters burn all the TV news crew vans since the MSM lit the false narrative fuse that will certainly touch off yet another senseless round of mayhem in the cities.

      ***********************************
      Cash Cow TM says:
      October 31, 2020 at 1:14 pm
      OR….perhaps…

      Perhaps the MSM and bettors on the election betting results dumping big money that Biden wins know that the voting machines have already been “compromised” and that rural counties in FLA, GA, PA, NC, MI, MN, WI, AZ, NV OH will come in with vote counts similar to inner city Philadelphia, Boston and Chicago.
      ***************************************
      If that is TRUE….let me be the first to congratulate

      President Kamala Harris!

      *************************************
      Cash Cow TM says:
      October 31, 2020 at 1:15 pm
      WTF?

      Where did everyone go?

      Is the Rapture happening?!?!
      ************************************

      YOU B@STARDS DID NOT TELL ME THERE WAS A NEW THREAD!

    20. Phil says:

      Can we quit talking about Texas for God’s sake?

      I don’t cate how many bs polls the Media pulls out of their collective asses.

    21. Cash Cow TM says:

      In my election prediction, I have now moved TX to Biden.

      ******

      HAR DE HAR HAR HAR!

    22. Tina says:

      Chad Pergram
      @ChadPergram
      · 4m
      Grassley on Fox: I sure have seen the improved chances of winning in Iowa. Joni Ernst, I…Republicans have a lot of energy on the ground here in Iowa..I think that I have seen really the same energy, albeit unpredictable, but it seems to be very similar to what we saw in 2016.

    23. prineville says:

      Am in Arizona. Have not seen a trump ad for the last numerous hours. Prior to today he was burning up the airwaves. Wonder if they pulled out or cut back substantially knowing that they have a comfortable lead. Trump will win arizona. This is kind of the wild west out here and a majority despise everything the democrats stand for. Trump needs to pull mcsally across the line. Every ad of kelly is looking to appeal to the emotional suburban female as he touts his machoness and how is mom became a cop at age 30. Hes a total fraud who is where he is because his wife got shot. Thats it. Even if kelly happens to win, ducey will bounce him in 2 yrs.

    24. hugh says:

      Big Joe. Based on your post it is pretty clear trump will win big. Already doing great and reps will swamp ED.

      It’s TargetSmart, but not a modeled figure (I don’t think). Here’s the URL where you can see: https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/index.html?view_type=State&demo=Voted%20in%202016&demo_val=All&state=TX

      As Mr. V just posted, the “Did not vote in 2016” crowd is modeled as 45R-39D-16U whereas the “Did vote in 2016” crowd is modeled as 54R-39D-7U.

      Of course, the modeling figures need to be taken with lumps of salt.

    25. Justin says:

      Speaking of Arizona, has there been an update on the numbers? They may have overtaken Dems yesterday as they had cut the lead to 25k the day before.

    26. wheelz91 says:

      My crazy prediction for Iowa is if Trump and Earnst
      both win that all 4 congressional seats will also go red.
      You heard it hear first!!!! 😉

    27. lisab says:

      Robbie says:
      November 8, 2016 at 6:16 pm

      Remember when Trump said he was going to win New York and California? I do.

      ———-

      the classics never get old 🙂

    28. lisab says:

      robbie’s post was right after frank luntz declared that based on the numbers he was seeing out of the polls that closed at 6:30 pm

      trump would lose michigan

    29. Robbie says:

      lisab says:
      October 31, 2020 at 2:01 pm
      robbie’s post was right after frank luntz declared that based on the numbers he was seeing out of the polls that closed at 6:30 pm

      trump would lose michigan

      – Your obsession with me is not healthy.

    30. Sheeple,Jr. says:

      Take a look at the joeisdone map of the early NC vote this cycle compared to 2016, There si not one,NOT ONE, County where the Democrats are doing better in this cycle compared with the GOP. It is a total Sea of Red!

      https://joeisdone.github.io/northcarolina/

    31. The Classical Liberal says:

      #17
      / Start quote

      Oct 31st / 12:16pm

      DEM: 3,335,854 39.32%

      GOP: 3,238,633 38.18%

      DEM: + 97221

      Final 2016 FL All Early Voting
      DEM: 39.80%
      GOP: 38.34%

      Disaster in Florida for the Democrats.

      / End quote

      Could you explain that to me? I’ve seen these comments over the last few days and don’t understand it.

      The percentage differential between 2016 and now seems too small to extrapolate. I understand that the Dems were up 200,000 in 2016 and are now up by less than 100,000.

      But how do we extrapolate that we are not cannibalizing our Tuesday get out the vote totals? We’re assuming that 2020 has the same voting patterns as earlier years.

      Or am i missing something?

    32. Big Joe says:

      #24, Hugh-

      To be clear, the modeled breakdown is from TargetSmart, not from me. Take it with salt.

      The final model after 2018 election day was 52R-38D-10U. The actual election result was Cruz 51 Beto 48.

      Oddly, the final 2016 model was also 52R-38D-10U. The actual election result: Trump 52 Hillary 43.

      Interpret as you wish. Here’s the data: https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/index.html?view_type=State&demo=Modeled%20Party&demo_val=All&state=TX

      BJ

    33. lisab says:

      my prediction is as follows … ahem …

      robbie and corey will be somewhat subdued in their obnoxiousness, until they see actual numbers showing biden ahead in a key state … because they know now how much i will mock them if trump wins …

      but … one or both will be unable to contain themselves and they will gleefully post the exit polls — which will show biden way ahead

      their posts will be concern posts like, “these exit polls have me concerned about xyz senate or congressional race. if these exits are correct the gop will lose N number of seats”

      also, if biden is solidly winning by 8pm, corey and robbie will reach levels of obnoxiousnous not currently measurable with modern technology 🙂

    34. mnw says:

      9 Tina

      I don’t understand how Larry/Bort/whoever can tell how EV people voted THIS year in those TX counties, unless they have access to exit polls, or some other mysterious methodology.

      It just doesn’t make sense to me. I’ve posted this before. Sorry to be little-johnny-one-note again.

    35. Marv says:

      lisab,

      Please get to the part when the actual votes start to show a clear Trump lead in the swing states…..

    36. Pitchaboy says:

      Targetdumb analysis of current FL electorate: R plus .3. Will end up R plus 5, I bet.

    37. lisab says:

      just in case biden wins, i just offshored a bunch of money

      i now am a slum lord in asia 🙂

      (actually i bought an apartment in asia today … only partially in case of a biden win)

    38. Smack says:

      Oct 31st / 1:15pm

      DEM: 3,350,896 39.29%

      GOP: 3,256,222 38.18%

      DEM: +94674

      Final 2016 FL All Early Voting
      DEM: 39.80%
      GOP: 38.34%

      Democrats doing worse on 2020 vs 2016 in every metric available in All Early Voting in Florida

    39. Stonewall DW says:

      “Or am i missing something?”

      You are missing something. The Dems are burning up their super-voters at a faster rate than the GOP. Super voters being those who voted in 4 out of the last 4 elections.

      So it is the Dems eating up their election day vote, while the GOP will have plenty left in the tank.

    40. mnw says:

      Smack

      but…but…but… not enuf R votes left! All used up already! And… and… and… Rs voting for Biden too! GBJ explained these things to us. Don’t you recall? /s

    41. mnw says:

      37 lisab

      Why r u moving to Asia? Work related? Rice fever?

    42. Pitchaboy says:

      Super voters left NC: R plus 180000. Take that, GatorBoy

    43. jason says:

      PA, MI, WI, AZ, NC, NH, MN and FL seem in the bag.

      What are we fighting for next?

      California, baby.

      https://redstate.com/mrate/2020/10/30/272462-n272462

    44. hugh says:

      has anyone else noticed that biden acts and looks more and more like the muppet grumpy old man Dunham? its amazing

    45. lisab says:

      lisab,

      Please get to the part when the actual votes start to show a clear Trump lead in the swing states…..
      ——————

      oh … corey will just disappear,

      and robbie will post a few platitudes like,

      “i did not see trump doing that well. i am glad it looks like N number of congressmen will win …”

      and then **poof** he will disappear for the night

      but unless trump is winning bigly, i doubt the midwest trump states will be called on election night

      to this day i don’t think cbs has called the 2000 election for bush …

    46. Stonewall DW says:

      94674

    47. lisab says:

      PA, MI, WI, AZ, NC, NH, MN and FL seem in the bag.

      What are we fighting for next?
      ——————————-

      1234 …
      what are we fighting for
      i don’t give a damn
      i have a place in vietnam 🙂

    48. mnw says:

      IIRC, in 2016, there were a couple of states that the nets refused to call for over an hour, even after they showed 100% of the vote in! Finally, the ridicule got to be too much.

    49. lisab says:

      i don’t know if trump can win in the current environment

      but if trump wins

      someone will have to do a safety check on corey around 9pm

    50. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      43 – pitchy even if that number is true, it doesn’t close the current gap between Ds and Rs. Sorry!

    51. Stonewall DW says:

      94455

    52. mnw says:

      Country Joe was a last minute substitute at Woodstock, because the act that was supposed to play that slot goy delayed by bad weather. CJ & the Fish were smart enough to show up with their musical instruments… just in case.

      Luck is the residue of hard work and careful planning, as they say.

    53. lisab says:

      Luck is the residue of hard work and careful planning, as they say.
      ———————

      which is why i just offshored my money

      while you guys are toiling away in the biden gulags

      i’ll be sipping a singapore sling in a gazebo overlooking the pacific 🙂

    54. Pitchaboy says:

      Sorry GatorBoy: NC by 3 for DJT. FL by 4. AZ by 3. GA by 5. TX by 7.

    55. Smack says:

      Florida

      Oct 31st / 1:50pm

      DEM: 3,358,884 39.27%

      GOP: 3,265,459 38.18%

      DEM: +93,425

      Final 2016 FL All Early Voting
      DEM: 39.80%
      GOP: 38.34%

      There is no evidence of the great democratic party turnout in Early Voting.

    56. Stonewall DW says:

      93425

    57. Tina says:

      Peoples_Pundit
      @Peoples_Pundit
      · 4m
      Arizona: @realDonaldTrump 48.0%, @JoeBiden 45.3%, @Jorgensen4POTUS 3.0%.

    58. Annie says:

      45. When Biden laughs, it’s really creepy…Reminds me of the Crypt-Keeper.

      BTW, Happy Halloween!

    59. mnw says:

      The libs are making much of Trump’s new “quite tone” today in PA. They read it as “resigned to defeat.” I read it as calculated strategy.

    60. Annie says:

      61. mnw…

      It seemed to me that Trump was talking especially to the women viewers.

    61. JeffP says:

      61 mnw I agree…I was thinking the same thing. Not to mention he has 14 more or something in three days.

    62. Smack says:

      Florida

      Oct 31st / 2:10pm

      DEM: 3,362,379 39.26%

      GOP: 3,269,764 38.18%

      DEM: +92,615

      Final 2016 FL All Early Voting
      DEM: 39.80%
      GOP: 38.34%

    63. Tina says:

      He was in a historic site

      The spot where then General Washington crossed the Delaware.

    64. JeffP says:

      59…Tina…I saw Baris was tracking leaners…is that a final poll for AZ?

    65. Annie says:

      61. I think he also was “saving his voice” from wearing out…A lot more rallies to do!!

    66. Stonewall DW says:

      Just to prepare for the incoming Emerson College final polling. Here is what they currently have in their prior polling:

      AZ
      Trump 45
      Biden 49

      CA
      Trump 29
      Biden 59

      FL
      Trump 48
      Biden 51

      GA
      Trump 48
      Biden 47

      IA
      Trump 48
      Biden 48

      MA
      Trump 31
      Biden 69

      MI
      Trump 43
      Biden 54

      MN
      Trump 49
      Biden 51

      MT
      Trump 56
      Biden 44

      NH
      Trump 45
      Biden 53

      NJ
      Trump 40
      Biden 58

      NM
      Trump 46
      Biden 54

      NC
      Trump 49
      Biden 49

      OH
      Trump 46
      Biden 43

      PA
      Trump 47
      Biden 51

      TX
      Trump 47
      Biden 41

      WI
      Trump 45
      Biden 51

    67. JeffP says:

      65…been there…beautiful country too.

    68. GF says:

      It would be nice to see the Rs hit or exceed their 2016 baseline in FL (given that Is are making up a slightly larger cohort this time around), but I’ll take the Dem collapse for what it’s worth. What were the raw numbers from 2016?

    69. Tina says:

      Not sure Jeffp.

    70. Stonewall DW says:

      And don’t forget, Dems were pushing ALL their base to vote early by mail. The expectation was they would far outstrip their 2016 early vote numbers.

    71. Stonewall DW says:

      92615

    72. LewisS says:

      I feel great about that Big Data Poll (Baris) showing Trump leading by 3 in AZ.

      The best news in that poll is late deciders are breaking his way. The other day, Baris said the same about PA…late deciders, when pushed, were going for Trump.

    73. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      Ouch!

      @Rasmussen_Poll
      Despite media censorship – or perhaps because of it – 54% of likely voters believe it’s likely that Joe Biden was consulted about & perhaps profited from Hunter’s overseas business deals including at least one involving a company in mainland China. 44% consider it Very Likely.

    74. Tina says:

      See new Tweets
      Tweet

      Team Trump (Text VOTE to 88022)
      @TeamTrump
      ·
      23m
      First Lady Melania Trump puts is perfectly!

      “Joe Biden says he could do a better job leading this nation. Apparently when you hide in a basement, you feel safe communicating your wishful thinking.”

      https://twitter.com/TeamTrump/status/1322614846211444740?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1322614846211444740%7Ctwgr%5Eshare_3&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ftheconservativetreehouse.com%2F2020%2F10%2F31%2Frally-2-president-trump-massive-maga-rally-reading-pennsylvania-230pm-livestream%2F

    75. jde1973 says:

      Been lurking here for almost 12 years with an occupational post from time to time. I grew up south of Houston (Ron Paul’s Congressional District), spent 4 years at Texas A&M and have been in San Antonio the past 25 years. Although the state has been drifting more purple over the past few election cycles the idea that either Biden or Hegar will win on Tuesday is laughable. Yes, the big cities of Houston (Harris), Dallas (Dallas), Austin (Travis), San Antonio (Bexar) and El Paso (El Paso) WILL go for the Democrats but travel anywhere East or West of those cities and the political affiliation immediately changes. We’ve saw shifts in Congressional Districts in 2018 (+ 2 Democrats) but even an unlikeable candidate like Cruz (he has gotten better with the last two rounds of SCOTUS nominations) still won by 2.5% (+ 215K). Trump won Texas by 9.5% (+ 856K) in 2016….your telling me that somehow PPP thinks Biden (without coming to the state since winning the Nomination) will have over a 1M vote shift in just 4 years? That is not reality…..hell not even fantasy!

      Don’t throw out new voters or Hispanic voters will be the difference. Any Democrat that believes Hispanics are “a given” to vote for them is wrong. Again, Biden will win San Antonio but the margins will show that the Hispanic vote is much more contested and not the way the media (or polling outlets) have stated. My wife comes from a large Hispanic family and outside a handful many of them have voted or will vote for Trump. For the Youth Vote, my son is a Freshman at Texas Tech. It’s his 1st Presidential Election and he voted for Trump. Many of his friends (graduates of 2020) are voting for Trump in their first election as well. Not saying the overall youth vote won’t be in favor of Biden but it sure as hell isn’t a landside for Biden AT ALL.

      Texas stays RED. Just my two cents from the GREAT STATE OF TEXAS.

      # MAGA

    76. Smack says:

      Florida
      ————

      Oct 31st / 2:25pm

      DEM: 3,366,023 39.25%

      GOP: 3,273,943 38.18%

      DEM: 92,080

      Final 2016 FL All Early Voting
      DEM: 39.80%
      GOP: 38.34%

    77. hugh says:

      I think yesterday was AZ last early voting day. They ended up plus 22K votes in EV. A slight rep gain.

    78. Stonewall DW says:

      92080

    79. Smack says:

      Pasco County, Florida looks fantastic for Trump.

      Which indicates Biden is in trouble in Rust Belt.

    80. JeffP says:

      82 Smack…thanks for posting FL early…what is Pasco breakdown?

    81. JeffP says:

      Trumps Reading PA self is different than his Bucks County self…he knows how to play it.

      He was really pissed in MN last night…loved that thousands cam anyway.

    82. LewisS says:

      Hanish Bakery (Redwing, Minn) cookie poll has accurately called every election since 1984….

      Trump: 11,963
      Biden: 3,457

      Busken Bakery (Ohio) cookie poll has accurately called every election (within 4% of the cookie poll) since 1984:

      Trump: 18,025
      Biden: 13,086

      Lochel’s Bakery (Hatboro, Montgomery County, PA), not the most R leaning county in PA:

      Trump: 24,000+
      Biden: 4,000+

    83. DanTexan says:

      Jfe1973- long time lurker here too – still have bad flashbacks from the un skewing of polls from the Romney Days

      City of Dallas resident here – Biden will clean up in Dallas BUT outside rural areas are RED RED RED – we went to a funeral in west Texas a couple of weeks ago and the sweet ladies serving food to the family has MAGA face masks on – there are Trump signs in all the fields . I also go to the same 7-Eleven every few days and the young guy there who immigrated from SE Asia told me he was voting for Trump and so were his friends – I was a little shocked but interesting- Trump will win by more than Cruz did for sure .

      Also Texas makes it very easy to early vote- there are 40 spots you can vote in Dallas County including the AAC – I think the Election Day vote is going to less than normal- everyone I know has already voted

    84. LewisS says:

      These cookie polls are reflective of real people expressing real opinions on how they intend to vote not polling models where some college professor in the Philly suburbs who is bizarre enough to spend 20 minutes on the phone with a stranger providing personal info speaks for 100,000 people who are smart enough to hang up on the stranger.

    85. Ruru says:

      Last day of EV in NC – no souls to the polls tomorrow..

      FL – fingers crossed for minimal slippage tomorrow.

    86. Bitterlaw says:

      I really hope that after this election, the states go back to voting on one day. There is less opportunity for shenanigans when people have to vote in person.

    87. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      Will say it again, I saw Democratic enthusiasm in the 2018 election. Now am seeing none of it. It could be because Biden has about as much charisma as a concrete slab. Democrats know their candidate is a bad choice when people are constantly speculating if he will survive his term in office. The Hunter Biden scandal makes things even worse. Oh and by the way, is Kamala Harris hiding somewhere? She seems to be keeping a low profile — what happened to her talk of a Harris-Biden ticket?

    88. LewisS says:

      RuRu, I think one of our FL folks here said the counties doing “souls” tomorrow are voting heavier R than D currently so I’m not thinking we’ll see any slippage.

      And, if I’m not mistaken, there are a few Panhandle counties open tomorrow and Monday. Can anyone confirm that?

    89. Bitterlaw says:

      SDC- Why would Democrats be enthused in California? They already know Biden will win the state.

    90. Stonewall DW says:

      90949

    91. GF says:

      92- I also saw that there was some rain down in SE FL; if that continues tomorrow, would that not have an impact on Souls to the Polls?

    92. janz says:

      One of the few times I’ve recently agreed with Bitter. However, I second his wish about states going back to one day voting, or at least a much smaller early voting window.

    93. michael corleone says:

      Man Ralston is sweating. Statewide lead for Ds well below 2016 level in both absolute #’s and population adjusted numbers.

      https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-3

    94. dblaikie says:

      We live in some strange times if this is true. Steve Herman on Twitter has a post where the Biden Campaign is saying that Joe and Jill Biden, and CH are going to address the nation on the evening of Nov. 3. It can’t be a victory speech. Two choices: 1. Urge Americans to keep calm and not peacefully protest if he is behind.
      2. Come out early and proclaim that he will not concede on Tuesday no matter what. I will take option two.

    95. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      93. That was the case in 2018 too in my area of California. Democrats knew they were going to win most races, but there was still enthusiasm and active fund raising. There were yard signs and signs in windows supporting Democratic candidates. People were motivated to be politically active because of their hate of Trump. Now it reminds me of the 2016, people seem indifferent. It is the opposite of rural areas that Trump is sure to carry; even though they know their areas will go for Trump, they still have signs out and are enthusiastic.

    96. Pitchaboy says:

      Doesn’t matter if Joe&Jill went up the hill. Election will be over.

    97. DanTexan says:

      91- Exactly at least in 2016 Hillary would have been the first woman and many people were enthusiastic about it – What’s enthusiastic about Biden ? Longest career in politics by an old guy to run for Prez ?

    98. chris says:

      97 A 39k statewide lead wont be enough. Even a small shift in the indie vote to Trump makes that evaporate.

    99. janz says:

      SDC, while the enthusiasm is tepid for Biden around the LA area, the only signage out is for Biden. Unfortunately, I think many of our propositions are going to pass, too.

    100. Scooterboy says:

      What should really worry Democrats, is that last Gravis Poll showing Trumps approval at 52%.

      Also has Trumps approval with Blacks at 37% & Hispanics at 59%.

    101. michael corleone says:

      DJT won’t win NV because mail will fatten that lead before and after Election Day. But it does indicate increased support for DJT.

    102. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      99. Ralston point about the voting in Nevada reminds me of what is happening in California.

      “Big rural turnout pushes statewide lead below 39,000 for Dems. The Rs now lead in the rurals by 44,000 votes. That has to make Dems a little nervous. The statewide lead is now below 2016 lead of 45,000 and well below extrapolated lead of 54,000. That’s only a 3.5 percent edge.”

      I have traveled a lot through Las Vegas in the last few months. Do not see much of a Biden campaign. Actually see many Trump billboards and signs. There may be a major enthusiasm gap in favor of Trump, which resembles 2016 in some ways.

      In saying this, I would be stunned if Trump won in Nevada.

    103. BayernFan says:

      This election night tomfoolery is the Biden campaign and the Democrats telling the media not to call the election for Trump under any circumstances. They want to keep their option of a color revolution available. Despicable.

    104. chris says:

      People are forgetting that Clinton won NV by only 24k votes.

    105. dblaikie says:

      Ralston continues to play twister with his grafts and charts. The bottom line is despite the deluge of mail-in Clark County votes the dems are only 39000 ahead. That is only 3.5 folks. If the in-person voting trends of the last two weeks continue Joe Biden is toast — plain and simple take it to the bank. I am going to post the early in person voting chart. It is telling. Just look at Washoe County. The dems have a 1700 person lead because of the mail. But look what the in person vote is. 28.57 for the Democrats and 47.54 for the GOP. That is 20 points folks! And the Cow Counties, Carson City comes out the lowest at 59% percent for the GOP. But Douglas, Nye, Lyon and Elko Counties are 70% GOP.

      In short it is going to be a blood bath on Election Day. Ralston and his crony’s better hope that a bunch of Ind. are voting for Biden.

      Not ready to declare victory yet for my old home state, but things are looking deeply rosy. Here is the link to the early in-person voting totals: https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=9062

    106. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      103. Biden will likely carry California by 65%-70% percentage of the vote. Too many Republican voters have left the state. The propositions will be interesting to watch; believe the one sponsored by Uber/drive-share companies will win. If some of the left-wing propositions fail, it could indicate California politics will get more interesting.

      We have a tight mayor’s race in San Diego between two Democrats. The union backed leftist is trying to claim the neighborhood friendly candidate is somehow affiliated with Trump’s policies. It has gotten nasty.

      Conservatives in California will increasingly run as independents since the Republican brand is close to dead in California.

      Of course if Bitter moves to Coronado it will help move the state back to a more centralist direction.

    107. dblaikie says:

      Oh one more thing! This is another knife is the throat of these media pollsters– sorry trolls. These polls that show Biden up six points in Nevada need to be trashed. Real Clear Politics needs to CLEAN HOUSE with its averages.

    108. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      109. I sure hope your right. Was in Nevada about two weeks ago, and was impressed by both the number of Trump signs, and the lack of hardly any for Biden.

    109. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      109. Did notice that in Nevada there is a huge backlash against the Democratic governor’s lockdown, particularly among those who work in the gaming industry. It is conceivable some may vote for Trump in protest.

    110. Gil says:

      PPP stands for Pathetic Polling Practices. Really, when was the last time PPP got a major election correct or were even close. Pathetic is the right word.

    111. dblaikie says:

      San Diego like I say I am not ready to say Trump is a slam dunk. But Ralston is avoiding reality that this is close, very close. In fact if Trump has won the independents (normal in Nevada) and if the Cow Counties collectively have a big day on Tuesday (normal in Nevada) and if Washoe County continues to keep winning in person voting on Tuesday — well it not be as close. Time will tell when the ballots are opened.

      By the way good old Trafalgar, has just put out a poll where Biden is only 1 point ahead in Nevada and says Trump is rallying. But I know, because Nate Silver doesn’t like Trafalgar we should throw it out and believe the 6 point Biden ahead nonsense. Here is the link to the Trafalgar poll:https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/10/31/poll-donald-trump-joe-biden-statistically-tied-in-nevada/

    112. dblaikie says:

      San Diego, I have been posting that for months. My family is from Carson City and my sisters live in Reno. In Northern Nevada there is a deep disgust for Sisolak! Right now Washoe has the dems ahead by 1700 votes. But they were around 20000 votes ahead when early in person voting started. And the mail has frankly been drying up. Clinton won Washoe by 3000 votes. I believe that is going to change.

    113. mnw says:

      109 dbl

      I find that persuasive.

      To me, the biggest tell is that as I recall, Ralston FIRST posted that the DEMs needed to be “ahead 58000 or so” by ED for Ralston to “feel comfortable.” (Is my recollection correct?) Well… it looks to me as if Ralston’s position has EVOLVED, & he’s now saying 40000 or so will make him “comfortable.”

      Pls correct me if I’ve got this wrong. It’s all IIRC.

    114. The Godfather says:

      Emerson final Wisconsin poll-

      Biden 53
      Trump 45

      Nebraska 2nd district
      Biden 50
      Trump 47

      Vigo county Indiana-

      Trump and Biden tied 48%

      Emerson releasing 13 more polls tomorrow

    115. michael corleone says:

      How the hell did a Republican not qualify for the ballot in San Diego mayor race? Has the city changed that much? It had R mayors the entire time I lived there from 2000-2010

    116. ruru says:

      Nevada:

      Still think Ralston is taking the Hispanic vote percentages for granted. Most all anecdotal indicators (Telemundo poll, heck most polls for that matter) say Hispanics have relatively shifted to Trump.

      Hispanics compose around 20% of the vote.

      Washoe positive
      Cow pies aplenty
      Hispanic vote improved

      This one will be damn close – but I like the action.

    117. ruru says:

      Interesting and positive from Twitter:

      Dave Trotter
      @DaNumbersGuy
      ·
      4m
      So, only a few counties are open for Early Voting in #Florida tomorrow. Of those, this is the combined result of those counties so far (early vote only, not VBM):

      Dems: 37.3%
      Reps: 39.3%
      NPA/O: 23.4%

    118. The Godfather says:

      New CNN/SSRS polls show Biden ahead in four battleground state polls
      MI Biden+12, 53-41
      AZ Biden+4, 50-46
      WI Biden+8, 52-44
      NC Biden+6, 51-45

    119. Tina says:

      Trump War Room – Text TRUMP to 88022
      @TrumpWarRoom
      · 18m
      Joe Biden: “Barack and I think it’s a right for people to have badakathcare.”

      https://twitter.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1322643443722657794

    120. dblaikie says:

      With the early vote in and identified by party how can they put these out with a straight face. SSRS polls must have an iron clad contract with CNN for four or more years.

    121. ShieldHero says:

      #124 – Because R and D turnout tell us nothing except that neither side is going to sit this out. We don’t know how many Rs and Ds are defecting, and we don’t know how indies will vote. If the polls are correct, indies will go for Biden and that will be the election.

    122. LewisS says:

      dlbaikie,

      Regarding Realclearpolitics, when it started (if I recall, it was the 2000 election) it was a counterweight to media narratives. In other words, it was meant as a response to using a push poll or other biased poll to drive a narrative. I remember RCP (Tom Bevan?) saying as much.

      It seems the Election Mafia has learned to exploit RCP with outlandish polls (Biden +17) to skew the data and drive the narrative anyway.

      It would be extremely healthy for this country for the Election Mafia to be completely wrong on Tuesday. They’re not good folks.

    123. Gordon Allen says:

      At least on Tuesday We’ll have relief from these asinine ” College polls” Whew. What a relief. They’ll be back in 2022 and 2024, but I hope people remember.

    124. OHIO Joe says:

      While I still believe that Mr. Trump will be re-election, I admit, I am slightly nervous. I place no stock in CNN, Fox, Quinn or PPP, but I think it is not good news that Ras, Emerson and Investors Business are all a bit pessimistic. I still hold out hope because with things looking so good in Ohio, either the neighboring state of PA or MI should put Trump over the top.

    125. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      119. “How the hell did a Republican not qualify for the ballot in San Diego mayor race? Has the city changed that much? It had R mayors the entire time I lived there from 2000-2010.”

      Sounds like you were there when Republican mayors presided over a major financial scandal that got San Diego referred to as “Enron by the Sea.” Also establishment Republicans politicians used the San Diego Downtown Redevelopment Agency as their pet cash cow.

      It got so bad that Carl DeMaio and other insurgents took on the tainted Republican establishment. When DeMaio ran for mayor, much of the Republican establishment supported Filner, to keep things the same.

      Add demographic change to tainted politics, plus alienating the Republican suburbs by supporting policies such as ending single family zoning, and you see how Republican rule ended San Diego. Political suicide is never pretty.

    126. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      122. A CNN poll has Biden ahead. I’m shocked, just shocked!

    127. Hugh says:

      124. You’re not paying attention one side made I pretty clear they were betting the farm on vbm. And they are Covid cowards. They also have no ground game. None. One side can barely get 100cars for a car rally. The other can get 30000. You’re either gullible or a troll.

    128. LewisS says:

      Can someone explain Vigo County?

      I understand it’s a bellweather, but what exactly should we be looking for? Trump won it by 15% in 2016 … so are we looking for the same margin in 2020?

    129. Annie says:

      Several factors might possibly play into the Nevada vote…if Latinos increase their support for Trump, as they have in Arizona and California, and how badly Las Vegas citizens want to reopen – and keep open – their entertainment business.

    130. Pitchaboy says:

      If DJT is tied in Vigo, he is toast: significance.

    131. lisab says:

      lisab’ troll poll:

      on election night, after 9:00 pm, we should know who is winning

      if biden is winning, which troll do you think will be most obnoxious

      a.) corey — my pick
      b.) robbie
      c.) gator
      d.) proudobamaconn
      e.) an old regular that left after 2016, e.g. md, cory etc
      f.) other

    132. Gatorjoel says:

      Correct, DJT is toast!!! These CNN polls offer more confirmation of this!!! Landslide!!!!

    133. Pitchaboy says:

      He is tied in Vigo and winning FL. Kind of ridiculous. Polls say he is losing big. Real votes show otherwise. Take your pick.

    134. Pitchaboy says:

      GatorBoy: Ralston pooping in his diaper and DJT tied in Vigo don’t jive: reality vs. wishful thinking. Even a IQ challenged gator should get that.

    135. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      The amateur political analysts on here said that the polls would tighten before the election. That hasn’t happened. The same amateur political analysis on here have said that Rump still has a chance to win. Hate to beea it to you, but you are also wrong about that.

    136. mnw says:

      137 Pitch

      That’s how I see it more & more:

      Who ya gonna believe? The polls, or your lying eyes?

    137. BillW says:

      gbj – So your Mom let you use the computer again this afternoon! You know, she would let you out of the basement if you promised to clean your room.

    138. Gordon Allen says:

      Emerson 53-41 Biden in Michigan. Seriously,Ohio Joe ,do you actually take such polls seriously,? Why?

    139. Gordon Allen says:

      Oh,in addition to no more College polls,no more gatorjoel after Tuesday. Blissful sleep at last.

    140. Gatorjoel says:

      I plan on being around awhile. Getting very excited about our new President’s agenda and the decline in power Trump’s so called base in America.

    141. Gatorjoel says:

      And I nominate myself for most annoying and intelligent troll!

    142. mnw says:

      Gordon

      He’ll go back to ProudObamacon, or else the other troll will.

      I’ve noticed that since the two unfamiliar trolls (at least they have unfamiliar screen names) showed up, ProudObamacon has completely vanished. PO used to be a very prolific troll. It posted here for several years– a complete idiot, as you can tell from its screen name. Who in their right mind would want to call himself “ProudObamacon”? Would you?

    143. John says:

      132
      This county (Vigo) has selected the winner of every POTUS election since 1956.
      Actually, this an election quirk and nothing more.

    144. John says:

      Liberals polls are absolutely throwing everything out there now to depress the R’s….garbage…ignore completely.
      And the trolls….please stop feeding them.

    145. JeffP says:

      I called him Obamathecon…it’s in my auto correct on my iPad

    146. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      The biggest unanswered question is whether Rump will try to pardon himself before leaving the Oval Office in January.

    147. SoHope says:

      Targetsmart Vigo County Early voting numbers 2016-2020

      2016 D-61% R-24% Trump won by 15%
      2020 D-33% R-36% ?

    148. Tina says:

      Political Polls
      @PpollingNumbers
      ·
      1m
      #National Poll:

      Trump 48% (+2)
      Biden 46%

      @sprystrategies
      (LV, 10/20-23)

    149. JeffP says:

      I gotta be honest…these trolls are so bad…not even tempting to interact with…easy to ignore ….they are that bad…I do like lisab and her little quips though…Like GatorBJ …you should bet Wes re NC…that was LOL literally out loud.

    150. Pitchaboy says:

      Proud Obama the Con has multiple personality disorder.

    151. Erol Hosdil says:

      I actually think that Trump is ahead in Michigan now by a point. Of course, I think Emerson is wrong to put Wisconsin and or Michigan up by eight. Either way, it is much closer. However, Emerson tends to be better than most others. Even good companies can have results that are off. Trump has the edge, but it could be too close for comfort.

    152. LewisS says:

      I think Collier County FL provides a good sense of R enthusiasm v D enthusiasm.

      In 2016, the final result *total vote spread* was Rs +44,000 votes.

      In 2020 early voting alone, Rs already are 47,500 ballots ahead of D ballots.

    153. Tina says:

      Any final Evs for Florida today?

    154. MikeKS says:

      PPP is just hilarious.

    155. Scooterboy says:

      Concerning Vigo County. According to this guy on twitter who is tracking the EV, Emerson is full of crap. You can go to his twitter page to view the graphs.

      FBI Clinesmith: bell weather update

      Vigi ct IN. 100 yrs called EC correctly

      Trump +16 in 16

      Ds down 25 Rs up 10

      Emerson is full of crap

    156. PresidentPaul! says:

      onald J. Trump
      @realDonaldTrump
      ·
      10m
      Just signed an order to protect fracking and the oil and gas industry. This means JOBS, low energy bills, and continued AMERICAN ENERGY INDEPENDENCE! Sleepy Joe would BAN fracking and destroy American energy jobs! He has NO clue!!

    157. Annie says:

      Polls mean nothing.

      Look at the early votes. Trump is winning by a mile.

    158. Tina says:

      If ppp polled adults only it’s toilet paper.

    159. Brion says:

      Robbie is the weird liberal. He is an an American Airlines pilot, strange but the pilots I fly with are mostly conservative. You get the one or two who swear they are blue collar union members. When you make 200k plus, your not blue collar.

    160. MikeKS says:

      Emerson’s polls are the only polls that give me some heartburn. They’re not typically herders.

    161. Steant1965 says:

      Scooterboy, what’s the twitter guy’s name?

    162. LewisS says:

      Sumpter County FL:

      The 2016 final vote total was R 52,700 to D 32,600 (+30,100 votes for Trump).

      In 2020 early voting alone, Rs already have a 29,100 ballot advantage over D.

    163. LewisS says:

      Correction to Sumpter 2016 – it was 52.700 to 22,600 (30,100) difference…

    164. Tina says:

      Lol, bad messaging from those 2.

      Julie Kelly Flag of United States
      @julie_kelly2
      ·
      2h
      So today Barack Obama taunted Trump for never being invited to birthday parties as a kid and Joe Biden mused how he would like to beat up the president because we need decent grown ups back in charge

    165. PresidentPaul! says:

      Trump has the fracking issue in PA along with the fact that the Amish are supposedly supporting the GOP this election cycle there (80k people)

    166. mnw says:

      RNC Chair McDaniel reports that appx 55% of those attending the Trump rallies in MN & WI yesterday were “not Republican.” This has been the pattern at all Trump rallies, although it’s usually 40-50% “not Republican.”

    167. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      Romney’s niece throws darts at a bird to come up with those numbers. The Rump kissers lap it up though.

    168. Annie says:

      162. This is NOT me, the real Annie…Whose using my handle here?

    169. Scooterboy says:

      166. He just goes by FBI Clinesmith on Twitter.

    170. Gatorbillyjoel says:

      Some more great polls just dropped. Absolutely beautiful. I worry about the mental stability of a few of you if they get posted, so will let you look them up.

      But, BOOM. landslide and Chomp Chomp!!!!!

    171. Annie says:

      173. Who’s…

    172. bob lee says:

      From final Democracy Institute poll Nov 1 (in Britain) via the Sunday Express:

      National popular vote:

      Trump: 48%

      Biden: 47%

      Battleground polls (WI, PA, MIN, MI, IA, FLA)

      Trump: 49%

      Biden: 45%

      Electoral college projection:

      Trump: 326

      Biden: 212

      79% of Trump supporters would not admit it to their friends and family compared to 21% of Biden supporters.

      Trump’s national approval rating is now at 52%.

      Almost 4 in 10 Black voters approve of his presidency with 21% prepared to vote for him.

      Ranked first in voter priority the economy and law and order come in at 29% which match Trump’s favorability on these issues.

      61% of voters believe Trump will be better for the economy.

      Trump’s voters are more even dispersed across the USA than Biden’s voters.

    173. Hugh says:

      Trumps going to win. The cnn polls confirm it.

    174. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      1973 Biden Enters Office
      1974
      1975
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      2016
      2017
      2018
      2019
      2020 I’ll fix America!

    175. chris says:

      175 it doesnt matter what Moore says because Gatorbillyjoel has assured us of a biden win. I even decided not to vote because its so hopeless

    176. Tina says:

      Fracking equipment surrounds the butler pa rally.

    177. Steant1965 says:

      Thank you scooterboy.

    178. phoenixrisen says:

      178 — Nice! Gator, stick that in your troll pipe and smoke it. Chump chump!

    179. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      155. “Proud Obama the Con has multiple personality disorder.”

      Yes, but if Trump starts winning on Tuesday they will all leave as a group.

    180. buster says:

      178

      Is that a BOOM?

    181. mnw says:

      178 bob lee, or any non-troll:

      How do the new Democracy Institute poll numbers compare to their most recent previous poll, pls, if you know?

      Thx, bob lee for posting 178, btw.

    182. PresidentPaul! says:

      I think a few of GOP voters were demoralized by the fake news and fake polls in 2016, but now all of them know it’s all scam because they remember last time.

    183. Bitterlaw says:

      If most Democrats are voting by mail, why do they need a ground game?

    184. lisab says:

      If most Democrats are voting by mail, why do they need a ground game?
      ————-

      because they got less than 70% of their targeted vbm

    185. PresidentPaul! says:

      https://twitter.com/SJPFISH/status/1322498194807394307?s=20

      Joe Biden’s Bus Gets Trolled By A Democrat Cemetery Vote Collector Hearse

    186. aniomap39 says:

      belly dance alla khushmir
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80iDOKMvH1Q

      belly dance beauty girl

      how to make a belly dance belt
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      b e l l y belly dance

      #qyeK7WAR2

    187. PresidentPaul! says:

      Bitcoin surging again this weekend. Outperforming the NDX, silver, gold all of it.

      It’s a super massive black hole devouring all other asset classes.

    188. PresidentPaul! says:

      I own 2.5 bitcoin.

    189. bob lee says:

      Democracy Institute comparison:

      ————October 4———–November 1

      Popular vote:

      Trump———46——————-48

      Biden———45——————-47

      Battleground polls (WI, MI, PA, IA, MIN, FLA)

      Trump———47——————-49

      Biden———43——————-45

      National approval:

      Trump——–50——————–52

    190. Gordon Allen says:

      The Democracy Institute Poll is the same as the last one,with the battleground states 1 point lower. The JA at 52% is similar to others; it is 4 points higher than the Head to Head, mysteriously consistent with other polls; the Black vote and approval similarly,; the EV the same as Barnes and the statespolling.com number ( and mine); the 48% is consistent with what I think Trump’s vote will be( his 46% plus 2% for black and Hispanic increases.
      My GUESS is that a point or so of the reminder will end up drifting to Trump. This is very believable; confession- partly because bit dovetails with my longstanding prediction of Trump 49-47 and 326 EV.( Had to put that in their)

    191. mnw says:

      Thx to bob lee AGAIN, & also to Gordon.
      Thx to my homey Annie too.

    192. JulStol says:

      DMR has Ernst up 4. You can take a 2nd term for her to the bank.

    193. jason says:

      “Amish are supposedly supporting the GOP this election cycle there (80k people)”

      Most don’t vote, unfortunately.

    194. Tina says:

      So, China virus is fourth on the issues. Remember, when the Jebot falsely claimed it was number one?

      Cotto/Gottfried
      @CottoGottfried
      ·
      1m
      “Mr Trump’s two strongest issues among voters are still ranked the most important – the economy and law and order – both at 29 percent.

      “In comparison coronavirus … is fourth on 20 percent as the most important issue”:

    195. PresidentPaul! says:

      https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2020/10/31/election-2020-iowa-poll-greenfield-ernst-us-senate-race-voters/6055545002/

      Earnst by 4.

      I’d say that puts the GOP with most likely at least 50 senators. If NC wins that 51. If McSally somehow wins or any others that’s just extra.

    196. Tina says:

      Reading pa rally was massive.

      Here is the crowd shot

      https://twitter.com/LisaBennatan/status/1322618462481588224

    197. jones says:

      I hope all are well. I’ve been lurking for a week and it is good to see a lot of familiar folks. Some of these trolls are desperate.

      Nothing you haven’t seen elsewhere, but I see who looks like they think they are winning and who is acting like they think they’re losing.

    198. PresidentPaul! says:

      2016 DMR had Ernst by 7, and she won by 8.

    199. MrVito says:

      Prior dMR had Trump 3 points ahead of Ernst.

    200. PresidentPaul! says:

      I had money on Ernst and Tillis at predict it. Those were the two I felt most likely to tilt late for Trump

    201. PresidentPaul! says:

      Ernst + Tillis= stop the Biden agenda

    202. PresidentPaul! says:

      Nate Cohn
      @Nate_Cohn
      · 2m
      Trump leads the final Selzer poll of Iowa by 7 points, 48 to 41. That’s the same margin as their final poll four years ago, which wound up foreshadowing Trump’s Midwestern sweep https://desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2020/10/31/election-2020-iowa-poll-president-donald-trump-leads-joe-biden/6061937002/

      WOW

    203. GF says:

      I see the resident Dems at HHR are already pooh-pooing the DMR.

    204. Akula_KS says:

      Anybody know if ad buys during NFL games matter? Would be interested in what happens during NFC and AFC North games tomorrow.

    205. PresidentPaul! says:

      When I saw the DMR poll on sat 2016, I knew Trump had won Wisconsin as well when I saw that poll bc those polls vote similarly.

    206. PresidentPaul! says:

      I thought 2016 was a 6 point lead but whatever

    207. Robbie says:

      Bitterlaw says:
      October 31, 2020 at 4:07 pm
      I really hope that after this election, the states go back to voting on one day. There is less opportunity for shenanigans when people have to vote in person.

      – You and me both, but don’t bet on it. If anything, this year has probably made extended voting more and more likely.

    208. Gordon Allen says:

      President Paul. There won’t be a Biden agenda. I hope they get behind DJT’s agenda 100%.

    209. Robbie says:

      lisab says:
      October 31, 2020 at 5:42 pm
      lisab’ troll poll:

      on election night, after 9:00 pm, we should know who is winning

      if biden is winning, which troll do you think will be most obnoxious

      a.) corey — my pick
      b.) robbie
      c.) gator
      d.) proudobamaconn
      e.) an old regular that left after 2016, e.g. md, cory etc
      f.) other

      – Your obsession with me is weird.

    210. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      This is good

      #IAsen:
      Ernst (R-inc) 46% (+4)
      Greenfield (D) 42%
      @jaselzer/DMRegister
      LV, 10/26-29

    211. Smack says:

      The DMR/Seltzer Poll is matching the final Iowa polls from 2016….

      Pasco, Florida County early voting numbers are matching 2016 numbers which is a precursor to what happens in the rust belt.

      This election is going to resemble 2016 much more than the great majority of these polls are indicating.

      Trump is going to successfully thread the needle again.

    212. Robbie says:

      Brion says:
      October 31, 2020 at 6:20 pm
      Robbie is the weird liberal. He is an an American Airlines pilot, strange but the pilots I fly with are mostly conservative. You get the one or two who swear they are blue collar union members. When you make 200k plus, your not blue collar.

      – Whoa, whoa, whoa. I’m not a liberal and never have been. I’ve a conservative Republican and always have been. The first election in which I could vote was 1996 and I voted for Dole. Tuesday, I’ll vote for Mitch McConnell for the fifth time. I just never cared much for Trump and wasn’t afraid to say so.

    213. jason says:

      These people are crazy.

      Gov. Gestapo rules for Halloween.

      “Homeowners passing out Halloween candy are “asked” to use the following health and safety measures:

      Use duct tape to mark six-foot lines in front of the home and leading to the driveway or front door.
      Position a disinfection distribution table between yourself and trick-or-treaters — and disinfect the table often.
      Consider passing out candy in an open space where distancing is possible rather than from the front door.”

      Here in this area of PA kids are walking around as usual, people are giving candy as usual, none of this idiocy.

    214. Robbie says:

      It would be great to see Ernst hang on and win.

    215. Wobbles says:

      “I’ve a conservative Republican and always have been. ”

      I just happen to be, how did I put it, “indifferent”, to Biden’s agenda.

    216. dblaikie says:

      In the face of all the CNN and Emerson nonsense this deserves a boom. Trump has a six point lead in the new Seltzer Poll. This poll is the gold standard for Iowa. Of course this means that jJoni Ernst wins.

    217. PresidentPaul! says:

      Trump has been running ahead of Ernst, McSally, Tillis, all of them just like 2016 when he dragged them across the finish line.

      Only one that might not be true for is Collins

    218. LewisS says:

      DMR uses Selzer & Co polling who most recognize as the best organization to poll Iowa. Feel great about that poll.

    219. jason says:

      I never thought Ernst was in any danger. Her opponent is certified dingbat.

    220. Annie says:

      202. Tina…Without covid, covid, covid, what else does Biden have to offer other than higher taxes, lower GDPs, mismanagement, job-killing regulations, court-packing, being compromised with foreign nations like China, and a looming socialist Harris? Covid will pass, as all pandemics do…

    221. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      Trump ahead in Iowa as well:
      IOWA
      Trump 48% (+7)
      Biden 41%
      @jaselzer/@DMRegister
      LV, 10/26-29

    222. jason says:

      a.) corey — my pick
      b.) robbie
      c.) gator
      d.) proudobamaconn
      e.) an old regular that left after 2016, e.g. md, cory etc
      f.) other”

      Robbie was the only one who actually celebrated Obama’s win, so there is a good clue for you.

    223. Dylan says:

      I don’t trust any politicians that are not self deprecating When do you ever see Biden, AOC, Warren or any of these dem politicians self-deprecate? Doesn’t happen. pelosi Schumer NEVER!

    224. PresidentPaul! says:

      Last election PA, MN, Wi, Mi, NV were all decided by small margins.

      I like Trump’s map much better than Biden’s.

      Win MN or Wi for 269-269 (not even counting maine)
      Win Mi or PA for outright win

      roll the the dice 4 times, and he needs only one of them.

    225. Hugh says:

      Lots of money to be taken from gullible dems on predictit. Particularly senate races. These fools believe the polls.

    226. Dylan says:

      PP—do you keep your bitcoins on an exchange or on a cold storage Device?

    227. LewisS says:

      Ann Selzer notes what others have noted… “momentum” or a “coming home” to Trump. She said Ernst gained 6 points via the Trump coalition (including a huge shift in Indies). Iowa doesn’t move in a vacuum. Great to see her analysis.

    228. PresidentPaul! says:

      #237
      I use coinbase so I don’t have cold storage.

      They are so damn expensive I can’t imagine buying one outright.

    229. Tina says:

      Annie I think trump has neutralized covid.

      Mask bans and lockdowns by Biden are not the answers.

      A vaccine and the antibodies are.

    230. PresidentPaul! says:

      Coinbase is a hub to get US dollars into the system though since once you have bitcoin there, you exchange with other exchanges to buy more obscure coins if you so desire.

    231. Tina says:

      Well Iowa senator grasslet said Rs were doing well this am.

    232. Robbie says:

      jason says:
      October 31, 2020 at 7:48 pm
      a.) corey — my pick
      b.) robbie
      c.) gator
      d.) proudobamaconn
      e.) an old regular that left after 2016, e.g. md, cory etc
      f.) other”

      Robbie was the only one who actually celebrated Obama’s win, so there is a good clue for you.

      – LOL. No, I didn’t, you dumba$$.

    233. Tgca says:

      224

      Indeed over the board and taking the fun out of Halloween.

      What’s next? No razors allowed in apples too? Geez! What is this world coming to I ask?

    234. Dylan says:

      241–yeah I’m trying to get my arms around the whole crypto thing I’d like to understand it more but aside from bitcoins being very expensive (as compared to something like gold/silver) it seems easy to lose all your money by user error especially if you misenter wallet addresses or try and take your coins off of the exchange Seems like it is still the Wild West of investment classes Too risky for me!

    235. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      I don’t understand why the Democrats are not trying to counter the clear shift now towards Trump. Having a candidate hiding in the basement just raises uncertainty about Biden’s ability to govern. Some people are likely to vote for Trump just because they view Biden as mentally incapable .

    236. MrVito says:

      I guess this new DMR poll also has Trunp running 3 ahead of Ernst.

    237. Dylan says:

      If Biden wins, I set July 4 as the over/under for President Harris to take over

    238. PresidentPaul! says:

      I think it’s going to increasingly end up in actual ETFs.

      Very rarely do retailer investors get to front run these things.

      Bitcoin will be 100k a coin soon.

      Don’t get me wrong, I think it’s a ponzi scheme, but central banks will end up buying them up like everything else.

    239. Sheeple,Jr. says:

      So when should we expect the trolls especially D–khead to comment on the wondrous results and polls from Iowa and Nevada. Magic!

    240. Dylan says:

      And I make that prediction based on Biden’s skin tone He is not healthy He is splotchy but the real tell tale is the shiny ness and thinness of his facial skin My grandfather had that skin tone 4 months before he stroked out and died The man is not healthy

    241. mrVito says:

      Is MU law done polling Wisconsin for the year?

    242. Tgca says:

      You would think after all this time Jadon and Robbie would bury the hatchet and become best buds.

      Jadon and me occasionally disagree but it’s because he’s an ignorant Pennsy hick and can’t appreciate all my EXPERTISE on …well…everything.

      I don’t always agree with Robbie and he’s a bit of a Debbie Downer at times but he does have valid concerns even if we don’t always agree. …and I do hope he gets back to work soon as that is very stressful situation for many. One of the most stressful things for a guy is to have to worry about work and his family.

    243. jaichind says:

      Final 2016 DMR poll was also Trump +7

    244. PresidentPaul! says:

      Honestly just download coinbase, and put 200 dollars in it.

      If you remember bitcoin’s last run, once it starts moving it just keeps running.

      We could get a volatility even monday or especially tues with the election. If it dips, there’s your buying spot.

    245. PresidentPaul! says:

      I only had about 500 dollars of bitcoin or so I kept on coinbase ever since that last crash.

      I’ve been watching it ever since because I knew it was going to do this all again so a few months ago I poured money into it.

      It’s the same reason I own a small amount of uranium miners.

    246. lisab says:

      remember when robbie said,

      Sadly, you have no idea what’s going to hit you in November.

      Not in the slightest. Trump’s almost certainly going to lose in November and I’m looking forward to it.

    247. PresidentPaul! says:

      Not only is bitcoin a supermassive black hole sucking in all other asset classes, but it’s a brain drain asset class. All the smartest computer related graduates are getting sucked into this thing.

    248. jones says:

      252- MU poll was final

    249. Sheeple,Jr. says:

      I guess Mr. Wissing will wait for some additional PPP, CNN and ABC polls to couterweight the Iowa Presidential and Senate polls!

    250. Joebiden says:

      Mmmmmm. Did someone say minors!!!!

    251. mnw says:

      “Selzer is the gold standard for IA polling.”

      Strongly disagree.

      Selzer is the gold standard for polling in the United States.

      Political junkies have long known this.

      Tonight is the FIRST time I’ve felt some real confidence that Trump will win.

      Plus, If Ernst is up by 4 points, I suspect there is a better than 50/50 chance the GOP holds the Senate.

    252. Tina says:

      Played at the butler Rally.

      https://youtu.be/sceuZ_u9MHw

    253. GF says:

      Trump won IA by 9.4, outperforming Selzer’s poll by about 2.5. Initially, I’d have expected to do better than HRC’s numbers, but maybe the momentum will carry Trump further than I thought.

      If IA is on track for a big win, OH is as well. That tells me that MI is close, and probably PA and MN as well.

    254. PresidentPaul! says:

      Trump knows his Stage Craft

      Remember when he had his Trump plan fly over Ted Cruz’s rally in 2016 Indiana?

    255. lisab says:

      election night 2012

      Robbie says:
      November 6, 2012 at 11:06 pm

      According to ABC, Jeb Bush told Romney FL is lost.

      Robbie says:
      November 6, 2012 at 11:21 pm

      I TOLD YOU SO!!!!!!!!!!!

      Promise kept.

    256. mnw says:

      238 Lewis

      Yep. You got it.

      DEMs have got to be soiling their undies right now.

      No-one on either side EVER denigrates Ann Selzer. No-one. Ever.

    257. PresidentPaul! says:

      Wisconsin has always voted with a couple percentage points (left) of Iowa with the outlier being 2016 when Iowa went further right.

    258. Tina says:

      Looks like Rs not crossing over and indies breaking for trump.

      Brianne Pfannenstiel
      @brianneDMR
      · 48m
      Independents, again, are key in this race. This is a group Trump carried in 2016.

      Our September poll showed Biden leading with independents 50% to 38% (+12)

      Today, Trump wins them back and leads 49% to 35% (+14)

      https://desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2020/10/31/election-2020-iowa-poll-president-donald-trump-leads-joe-biden/6061937002/

    259. mnw says:

      270 Tina

      YESSSSSS!

      Maybe IA indies are different than indies everywhere else, but… not likely!

    260. Tina says:

      Yikes Trump,supporters take over Kampala’s Florida Rally.

      https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1322688741392162816/photo/1

    261. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      FLORIDA
      Trump 49%
      Biden 49%
      @atlas_intel
      LV, 10/28-29

      WISCONSIN
      Trump 50% (+1)
      Biden 49%
      @atlas_intel
      LV, 10/29-30

      National GE:
      Trump 48% (+2)
      Biden 46%
      @sprystrategies
      LV, 10/20-23

    262. Tina says:

      Mnw, I feel better with that iowa poll given the reputation of the pollster.

      I still think trump,has 270+ and will win.

    263. PresidentPaul! says:

      DMR poll actually a even a bit worse for Demented Joe?

      Real American Politics
      @RealAPolitics

      DES MOINES REGISTER POLL WEIGHED: Trump – 48.90 Biden – 41.55 The poll was basically spot on when weighed and when I went back to the same poll from the same time frame in 2016 when weighed trump only had a 5 point lead. Now its a 7.5 point lead when weighed.

    264. Tina says:

      Mnw

      Check out that Butler pa rally photo.

      There’s a lotta people there.

      https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1322683973366095874

    265. prineville says:

      Progressives sharpening knives for Dem ‘bloodbath’ if Biden loses
      By Jon LevineOctober 31, 2020 | 12:11pm
      NYPOST

      One senior official at a Democratic Political Action Committee was blunter.

      “If Biden loses it’s going to be a f–king bloodbath. There’s no other way to put it,” he said. “Heads will roll. It’s going to be ugly.”

      THIS is going to be most entertaining watching the implosion of the democrat party.

    266. Gatorjoel says:

      Haven’t seen anymore FL voting updates. Am guessing the numbers tilting back to Democrats!

    267. Tina says:

      Why would Biden appear before a don’t voo, vote sign?

      https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1322699584884346880

    268. Tina says:

      Don’t boo, vote sign*

    269. PresidentPaul! says:

      Netflix has a new series called Queen’s gambit that is very good. Granted it takes the Bobby Fischer (kind of merged with judit polgar I guess) story and turns him into a girl orphan with a black friend who wants to become a radical protestor as career.

      Nonetheless, it was still done very well.

    270. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      280. You base that on the assumption that Biden knows where he is at any particular moment.

    271. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      279. Guessing? And you have no new polls? Have you run out of talking points?

    272. prineville says:

      Going to be watching my home state of oregon closely on election night. FWIW CNN has Biden 52 – Trump 42 as of 10/30. Closed considerably since the first of october. Yes, biden will win but could see even more movement towards trump due to the nonstop portland violence. Also, pdx mayor ted wheeler is up for reelection against a full fledged member of antifa.

    273. JeffP says:

      Selzer’s polls in Iowa’s 4 U.S. House races…

      #IA01
      GOP: 51%
      DEM: 36%

      #IA02
      GOP: 41%
      DEM: 40%

      #IA03
      DEM: 45%
      GOP: 39%

      #IA04
      GOP: 50%
      DEM: 33%

    274. jaichind says:

      280. I think that came from the 2012 election when during a 2012 rally Obama said “Don’t boo, vote, voting is the best revenge” in response to the crowd booing something Romney had said/did.

    275. DW says:

      Link on atlas Intel Wisconsin poll?

    276. Tina says:

      It’s one thing to say it, another thing to have a sign with a guy that looks like a ghost.

    277. mnw says:

      277 Tina

      GOOD G*D ALMIGHTY!

      I

    278. Gatorjoel says:

      284-given that all of the updates showing the gap closing declined, it only makes sense that such gap is now widening—that was the one big thing y’all were hanging your hats on.

    279. Pitchaboy says:

      GatorBoy: Nate Cohn and his ilk are pooping bricks over Seltzer.

    280. Cash Cow TM says:

      Pres. Paul,

      Cow is selling bitcoins.

      You send me the money, I move them over to a drawer with your name on it==to keep it safe and all.

      You can buy full Cow bitcoins or fractional shares of same in $500 increments.

      Just send me your money and I will do the rest…and send you a certificate, of course.

    281. Annie says:

      People in my California neighborhood are bringing their kids trick-or-treating – So much for Gov. Weasel-face!

    282. Tina says:

      Washerman is shooting in his tighty whities.

    283. Boog says:

      If the momentum continues, it will be very interesting to see if there are any surprises on election night. Any states that are unexpectedly “too close to call”. I don’t expect Trump to win NV, ME (outright) or OR, but would not be shocked if those are a lot tighter than anyone expected on Tuesday night.

    284. mnw says:

      DMR Selzer is showing a 26-point swing since the last Selzer poll in September.

      It was the Selzer poll in September that had me out on the ledge– totally. I knew the significance of that, if it didn’t change. DOOM. No-one who isn’t a fantasist could disregard Trump being so far behind in IA– not in a Selzer poll.

      I hope Trump can pull the R in !A-02 over the line with him. It’s an open seat, & she’s a class candidate.

    285. Big E says:

      Pleasantly surprised with the house race Iowa polls. May be a precursor of a true red wave. Retake the house, expand the senate and keep the presdentcy.

    286. Boog says:

      297 — I meant to say NM, not NV. I actually think NV is a true toss up.

    287. Pitchaboy says:

      GatorBoy: your world collapses in Predictit

    288. Cash Cow TM says:

      Cow has seen enough of all these “all over the place” election polls and have ruminated mightily on them.

      *******************************************
      On Sunday, I think I will post my election predictions at HHR–based on my “gut” feelings.

      And I have 4 stomachs so I have a lot of “guts”.
      (Teaser: I will have WV going for Trump)

      The rest of you misfits, deplorables, trolls and Russian agents can add your predictions later on Tuesday.

    289. Gatorjoel says:

      The D advantage tomorrow will be at least 150k in Florida. It is over. No one has told me what the final FL numbers are today. For all I know we are there now!

    290. Pitchaboy says:

      GatorBoy: Soros henchmen are dumping SloJo in FL, IA, GA, AZ, PA.

    291. Scooterboy says:

      Nate Cohn twisting himself into a pretzel trying to explain away the Selzer Poll.

      Nate Cohn- “It is also worth noting, though, that Selzer can be wrong, and has been before. No pollster has been put on a higher pedestal, but in the end everyone in this business is subject to sampling error and so on. If you expect perfection out of N=800 polls, you won’t get it”
      “ And this Selzer Iowa poll is off on its own, not just in Iowa but in terms of the overall story. Every national poll has shown doing Biden way ahead of Clinton among white voters / white working class voters. He’s excelled across the white, northern tier.”

    292. jason says:

      Betting markets are nervous.

      Biden down to 61% in PA, 51% in NC, 53% in AZ in Predictit.

    293. JeffP says:

      KNOXVILLE, Tenn., October 31, 2020 (Newswire.com) – The national poll conducted by Spry Strategies from October 20 through October 23 provides a granular look at the General Election battle between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. The random sampling of 380,000 likely general election voters who voted in at least 2 of 4 general elections considering 2012, 2014, 2016 and 2018. Additionally, the sample includes newly registered voters who registered to vote between 5.1.18 and 10.19.20 mode sample consists of 3000 landlines, IVR 400 cells and 100 panels. The sample includes a scientific distribution of voters residing in all 50 states.

      The margin of error is this nationwide poll is +/- 3.1 percentage points with demographic weighting applied.

      The survey turnout model is a combination of 2016 general election turnout, dominant Republican newly registered voter statistics, and early voting statistics. The traditional 2016 General Model has Biden leading by 1.8 points, and is available upon request.

      Overview

      This 12-question survey conducted in the height of media attention that spanned the window of time preceding, during and following the second presidential debate featured 3,500 completed responses from likely registered voters from each of the 50 states.

      The head-to-head results from the ballot test (Q4) captured what Americans see – a very close national election. Donald Trump (R) was the choice of 47.78% of the 3,500 respondents with Joe Biden (D) selected by 46.34%. Of note, only 3.66% of respondents were undecided and just over 2% were voting for a “third party” alternative.

      Looking at the sample’s partisan divide, Republicans comprised 39.8%, Democrats 37.96% and Independents over 18% while self-identified ideology was more telling. Of the large national sample, a sum of 44.78% disclosed their either “very conservative” or “somewhat conservative” leanings with the moderate identifier leading at 28.87% and those viewing their leanings as somewhat liberal or liberal to total 26.35%.

      The cohort of moderates combined with those with liberal leanings comprise the greatest group who show disapproval of Donald Trump and support Joe Biden. Of those surveyed on the incumbent President’s approval, moderates comprised the largest group to have “somewhat disapproval” as well as showing strong disapproval at 53.4% and 36.8% respectively. In the Trump approval crosstabs (Q3), females are 60.9% of the respondents who somewhat disapprove and 58.6% of those who strongly disapprove.

      Accounting for race, Biden prevailed in the ballot test with 57.5% of the African American respondents while Trump held 32.4% of the same population. Conversely, Trump led in the Hispanic voters with 48.2% with Biden at 43.2%. Interestingly, the Trump approval for African Americans was positive for 38% of respondents while Hispanics offered their approval at 52.1% of those surveyed. If Trump finishes anywhere near these percentages of support from African Americans and Hispanics, he will win the electoral college and the popular vote.

      Prediction

      4 more years of Donald J. Trump as President of the United States, with an expansion of the electoral college, and a loss to Joe Biden in the popular vote by a slimmer margin than the 2016 election against Hilary Clinton.

    294. John says:

      304
      Did you get the memo from yesterday?
      Stop feeding the trolls.

    295. Pitchaboy says:

      GatorBoy: Final FL number around 91000. Get up early and get a lot of them souls to the polls.

    296. Robbie says:

      lisab says:
      October 31, 2020 at 8:23 pm
      election night 2012

      Robbie says:
      November 6, 2012 at 11:06 pm

      According to ABC, Jeb Bush told Romney FL is lost.

      Robbie says:
      November 6, 2012 at 11:21 pm

      I TOLD YOU SO!!!!!!!!!!!

      Promise kept.

      – I don’t know how many times I’ve lisab this, but my screen name was stolen that night. If you had scrolled down a bit further, you would have seen that I caught the fake comments and loudly defended myself.

      lisab knows this, but she doesn’t care.

    297. jason says:

      Gator troll, rush over and bet on Biden to win FL on Predictit, he is down to 40%.

      You can get rich!

    298. jason says:

      I don’t know how many times I’ve lisab this, but my screen name was stolen that night.”

      Liar.

      You were as much hacked as Carlos Danger was hacked.

      You did exactly what you said you would do, celebrate Obama’s win. Or were you hacked when you said that too?

      GFY.

    299. JeffP says:

      The Biden campaign is full blown panic in PA. Head of DEM NY with a desperate tweet for volunteers. for a ground game the last three days…

      This whole Dam Covid strategy is going to backfire completely it looks like.

    300. jason says:

      There are Wobbles, Wobbies, and other parodies.

      Nobody has ever posted under Robbie.

      Robbie is a pathological liar.

    301. jaichind says:

      The predict movement says once again they bet on polls and seem to ignore early vote and VBM data.

    302. JeffP says:

      313 cont…the Dems will go full blown progressive leftist after another establishment candidate loss for President.

      I think the GOP wins back the house. Need to work on that some..as far as seats…but Trump districts lost in 2018 are in serious trouble.

      Senate GOP for sure.

    303. jason says:

      You would think after all this time Jadon and Robbie would bury the hatchet and become best buds.”

      I gave it a shot. I stopped calling him Amoral Scumbag and said if he wanted to post something other than Dem and MSM talking points it was fine with me, I was willing to let bygones be bygones.

      But it only lasted a couple weeks, and he was back to just posting CNN and MSM talking points on Trump and COVID.

      The guy is addicted to fake news and never had an original thought in over 10 years.

      And everything he says about being a Republican and a conservative is an abject lie.

    304. Pitchaboy says:

      Reality will set in on Predictit.

    305. John says:

      Apparently, some here just doesn’t get it. Trolls are trolls and they try to get a rise of unsuspecting victims. They even may be hired by the DNC or such. Just ignore. Instead, giving air to these trolls just diminish your stance.

    306. Pitchaboy says:

      Predictit did not move with Trafalgar. Seltzer has them spooked.

    307. jason says:

      The caveat on Predictit are the GA senate seats. Rs have taken a hit on both of them.

    308. Scooterboy says:

      Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison (D) on Friday warned about the possibility of President Donald Trump winning the North Star State.

      “The president is putting a lot of money into your state. He’s greatly increased his ad buy, $1.2 million in TV advertising in the final week of the campaign, more than was spent in the preceding three weeks combined. Do you think the president has a real shot in Minnesota?” CNN’s Chris Cuomo asked.

      The attorney general said he could see the possibility of Trump pulling out a win in Minnesota.

      “Honestly, yeah, I do. I will tell you that I believe in our campaign workers and organizers. They’re working extremely hard. I can tell you that Minnesotans know what a problem Trump is,” Ellison explained. “They know he doesn’t care about their health care. They know all the bad things about him. But, you know, there are some folks who still are supporting him. And so what I tell people is, one, he does have a shot, don’t play it cheap, work hard for every single vote. And don’t stop until 8 o’clock on November 3.

    309. jason says:

      hey even may be hired by the DNC or such.”

      Our trolls are too stupid to be hired even by the DNC.

    310. Tina says:

      Yikes, the socialist son is nervous.

      Bill Kristol
      @BillKristol
      · 10h
      I remember well my phone conversation with a smart Republican friend (sadly, pro-Trump) Sat. eve, Nov. 5, 2016, after the final DMR poll of IA at Trump +7. He said, if IA is +7, then Trump has a good shot in PA/WI/MI, and could win the whole thing. I was worried. He was right. twitter.com/briannedmr/sta…

    311. jason says:

      And don’t stop until 8 o’clock on November 3.”

      Heh, like he would stop then.

    312. PresidentPaul! says:

      I even put a small amount on Collins on predict it since I liked the outside odds they were giving.

    313. LewisS says:

      That Bill Kristol tweet is the best thing I’ve read all day.

    314. Hugh says:

      On predictit it takes very little money to keep a narrative for several days. Plus you have the regular gullible dems who believe the msm polls. So funny to see their comments.

    315. lisab says:

      how do we know #310 is really robbie?

      maybe he was hacked!!!!

      for the second time in 14 years!

    316. lisab says:

      does it give anyone else pause that

      a.) he is entrusted with planes (well … not any more)

      and

      2.) he thinks you are thaaaaaat stupid?

    317. Tina says:

      For,the jebots:

      Corey Johnson
      @CoreyinNYC
      · 23h
      URGENT – The Biden team needs volunteers who can knock doors in Pennsylvania anytime over the next four days! You can sign up below by going to the “pick a canvass” option which will show you all of the priority locations:
      https://padems.com/swing-state/

    318. mnw says:

      320 Pitch

      Predictably.

      Even Nate Cohn has said she’s the most highly regarded pollster in the U.S.

      Good or bad, I ignore the betting sites because they’re trash.. The little dog that chases the huge tractor-trailer… yap, yap, yap!

    319. lisab says:

      i get to watch hocus pocus again tonight

      and it gets better

      every single time!

      (helpful hint robbie, don’t light the black candle)

    320. wheelz91 says:

      That wheelz guy in post 26 must be a genius!!!

      wheelz91 says:
      October 31, 2020 at 1:57 pm
      My crazy prediction for Iowa is if Trump and Earnst
      both win that all 4 congressional seats will also go red.
      You heard it hear first!!!! ?

    321. mnw says:

      334 wheelz91

      Well said! Are u in IA, btw? One of the 4 IA seats is hopeless for the GOP– it was designed to be a DEM vote sink, as I recall.

    322. Ruru says:

      Hypothetically only:

      What does a Dem do if you’ve based your strategy, your victory on a massive vote by mail effort.

      Then, the returns just aren’t up to snuff. You’ve incessantly told your voters to vote early because Covid is waiting to kill them if they leave their house.

      So, can you ask them to risk their lives to vote for an old, frail, unmotivating old man.

      Well of course you can because it’s for the good of the cause – shear hatred of all things Donald.

      But will that marginal voter turn out and risk their life to vote against a man they personally don’t hate? 🙂

      A Biden loss is literally incomprehensible to the governing class.

      The potential joy that awaits Tuesday is a magnitude greater than 2016!

      God love Ann Seltzer – one tough, honest cookie.

    323. phoenixrisen says:

      331 — Tina, it is way too late. Trump wins PA by 2-4. I say four because of momentum. If he wins by four in PA, Katie bar the door on VA, CO, and NM.

    324. Scooterboy says:

      When you are begging for volunteers to knock on doors four days before the election, that proves you have NO ground game.

    325. Tina says:

      Ok gang a busy day tomorrow

      Steve Herman
      @W7VOA
      · 7m
      There are five rallies on @POTUS Sunday schedule:

      (All times local)

      11 AM Washington, #Michigan

      1:15 PM Dubuque, #Iowa

      5:45 PM Hickory, #NorthCarolina

      8:30 PM Rome, #Georgia

      11 PM Opa-locka, #Florida

      #Election2020

    326. lisab says:

      breaking: nancy pelosi and chuck schumer have called for an immediate three day lockdown with no exceptions, beginning sunday at 11:59 pm, ending wednesday at 11:59 pm.

    327. Big E says:

      If you consider that Biden was a compromise candidate to protect the party against Bernie, it could end up being a bigger disaster

    328. lisab says:

      so is robbie knocking on doors in pa or mi?

    329. wheelz91 says:

      I live in Illinois but am close to the border of Iowa.
      None of the districts are really vote sinks. But Iowa-2 is Loebsack -D seat and is open this year after 14 years. Miller-Meeks is running for the 3rd time and should win this year.

      I believe that 1 and 3 were republican in 2016 and of course Iowa 4 was King’s seat soon to be held by Feenstra.

    330. Justin says:

      Should we all sign up for a shift as a “volunteer” in Pennsylvania for the Dems?

    331. Tina says:

      Robert C. Cahaly
      @RobertCahaly
      ·
      17m
      It’s just the beginning dude. Buckle up – bumpy ride headed your way.
      Quote Tweet

      (((Harry Enten)))
      @ForecasterEnten
      · 1h
      I have now received approximately 232 messages about the Selzer poll.

    332. JulStol says:

      The meltdown on RRH should be just about as much fun as the meltdown on Kos if Trump pulls this off.

      The hatred the mods/posters have for their party’s base is astounding, yet unsurprising. WelschTract/RyanInSEPA has completely abandoned where he came from.

    333. jason says:

      · 23h
      URGENT – The Biden team needs volunteers who can knock doors in Pennsylvania anytime over the next four days!”

      Are they knocking on doors Wednesday?

    334. Scooterboy says:

      Harry Enten- “ have now received approximately 232 messages about the Selzer poll.”

      Trafalger Pollster responded- “ It’s just the beginning dude. Buckle up – bumpy ride headed your way.”

      Lol

    335. jason says:

      NC flipped on Predictit.

      AZ is teetering at 52%.

    336. Scooterboy says:

      Dang it Tina, you beat me again

    337. Tina says:

      I think in one of his speeches today, Trumo said thst it took him (his team) a year and a half to build up,his ground game, at a high cost.

    338. Where are the trolls? Certainly they are not going to be scared off by a few adverse polls? They aren’t scheduled to scamper off until around 9:00 PM CST on November 3. Come on gentlemen we still need to benefit from your troll wisdom.

    339. Tina says:

      Likes
      Peoples_Pundit’s Tweets

      Peoples_Pundit
      @Peoples_Pundit
      ·
      2m
      Similarly, we found Indy moves to Trump in Arizona, Pennsylvania, Florida and Ohio.

      Really depends on the state. Think a lot of others too mistook a more partisan lean as an Indy swing when it was not.

    340. lisab says:

      they drove 96 miles?

    341. mnw says:

      Some other righty sites I frequent just don’t speak Selzer– they don’t get how big a deal this is.

      Even a lot of otherwise very politically literate posters don’t even know who Selzer IS, I think.

      Bill Kristol KNOWS. Nate COHN KNOWS.

    342. mnw says:

      356 Tina

      I don’t understand what this means: “Think a lot of others too mistook a more partisan lean as an Indy swing when it was not.”

      huh?

    343. Scooterboy says:

      It seems like someone always posts something just before I do.
      I guess when you are 95% deaf in both ears, you hear things a split second later than everyone else.

      It appears that split second difference is all it takes on this blog.

    344. Scooterboy says:

      I think we all are gonna chit our pants when we find out the percentage of AA vote Trump gets in this election. I just have a feeling it’s going to be more than any of us are predicting.

      Just watched a video on Twitter where Charlamagne tha God absolutely shreds Joe Biden on a black radio broadcast.

      If you want to see it, go to Steve Guest twitter page.

    345. Scooterboy says:

      Nate Sliver doubling down- “ Man, Democrats’ anxiety levels is off the charts. Which, of course. But it’s a good night to have a glass of wine or whatever and chill out about the polls. It’s pretty unlikely that the overall polling outlook is going to look much different on Tuesday morning than it does now.”
      “ We’ve gotten a lot of data, most of it very recent. 91 million people have already voted. There’s no October surprise unless you want to count the latest COVID spike, which isn’t good news for Trump. Trump can win but there’s not much indication of a last-minute surge toward him.”