Two Divergent Polls in CA Show Recall Up By Double Digits or Close to Tied

    Two completely different results in the California Recall Election from two different polling organizations. We’ll start with Emerson College that shows Newsom hanging on, but if he should be recalled, Republican Larry Elder dominating the field while the top Democrat Kevin Paffrath coming in at a lowly 1%.

    No 46%
    Yes 48%

    Larry Elder (R) 23%
    John Cox (R) 7%
    Caitlyn Jenner (R) 7%
    Kevin Kiley (R) 5%
    Kevin Faulconer (R) 4%
    Kevin Paffrath (D) 1%

    This poll was done July 30-August 1 among 1000 likely voters. On the flipside, a new poll from Survey USA shows a much wider margin in favor of recalling Newsom and in a completely different view, has Democrat Paffrath leading the field to replace Newsom.

    Yes 51%
    No 40%

    Kevin Paffrath (D) 27%
    Larry Elder (R) 23%
    John Cox (R) 10%
    Kevin Faulconer (R) 5%
    Doug Ose (R) 4%
    Caitlyn Jenner (R) 4%
    Kevin Kiley (R) 3%

    This poll was done August 2-4 among 545 likely voters. Just stunning the difference in the level of support for Paffrath in two supposed reputable polling companies but in general, one does have to think Democrats (even the ones supporting the recall) are going to consolidate around a single candidate at some point especially if it appears Newsom is going to go down and Paffrath seems to be the only name that keeps being mentioned in these polls.

    Posted by Dave at 7:53 pm
    Filed under: General | Comments (76)

    76 Responses to “Two Divergent Polls in CA Show Recall Up By Double Digits or Close to Tied”

    1. Cash Cow TM says:

      Cowie first.

    2. Bitterlaw says:

      SDC/Sheeple – Break all this down for us.

    3. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      2. The reputation of SurveyUSA is that it’s polling in California is a complete joke. As example, it predicted some years ago a San Diego mayoral race was too close to call. Actually, one candidate won in a landslide.

      Survey USA did the recall poll online, based on a voter list provided by an New Orleans marketing firm. The poll results were “weighted” and “raked” and subject to other forms of hocus pocus. In short the “poll” is worthless.

      Emerson is a respectable polling firm; and it’s results are similar to several other reputable polls that have been done recently. It’s going to be close.

    4. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      I will add the reason Kevin Paffrath did well in the Survey USA poll is because it appears his party affiliation was indicated in the poll.

      Hope I am wrong and the SurveyUSA poll proves correct. But have seen too many badly off SurveyUSA polls in California. Do believe the recall now is too close to predict who will win.

    5. Bitterlaw says:

      Lesson for politicians – The only thing that compares to slavery is slavery.

    6. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      Another online poll:

      California Governor Recall:
      Among RV:
      Remain 48% (+9)
      Recall 39%

      Among LV:
      Remain 49% (+7)
      Recall 42%


    7. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      6. Comment about Core Decision poll:

      “Online interviews” of only 804 people in the state with the largest population in the country? This poll is meaningless.

    8. jason says:

      This poll is meaningless.”

      It is called agenda polling.

    9. jason says:

      The Washington Football Team has decided to ban fans from wearing Native American garb, facepaint, and the like from home games this upcoming season.”


      So if you are a native American you can’t wear native American garb?

    10. jason says:

      The good thing for CA residents about this recall election is that now Newsome can’t lock down the state again or he is toast.

    11. Bitterlaw says:

      Does the ban include Native South American clothing?

    12. jason says:

      Bitter, you could make some money here.

      Get some Native Americans to sue alleging the ban is discriminatory (it is unless they ban every type of garb) and seek reparations for the emotional and physical trauma this ban has caused.

      Don’t forget my finders fee.

    13. jason says:

      Face paint can be carried in and then applied in the stadium.

      Then maybe the face paint police can then search the stadium to evict people with face paint.

    14. jason says:

      AG’s Report: #MeToo Time’s Up Co-Founders Advised Cuomo on Letter Attacking Accuser”

      Me Too co-founders advised Cuomo on how to smear his accusers.

      You can’t make this sh-t up.

    15. jason says:

      Woke women’s soccer wins bronze.


    16. Tgca says:

      US soccer dykes beat Australian women in 4-3 match to get bronze medal.

      We’re all still proud of you Australia!

    17. Phil says:

      Hey, they made it to the podium. Maybe they can take a knee during then playing of the Canadian or French anthem.

    18. Tgca says:

      WTF is Wes doing in San Francisco?

      Just kidding Wes!

      What’s amazing are the comments in support of this in broad daylight.

    19. Tgca says:

      I am sympathetic to this cause but I don’t get the logic of some in this article. It’s ok to kill babies but you’re worried, not about killing babies but about equality in killing both male and female babies?

      Killing more girl babies than boy babies is gender discrimination?

      “Sex-selective abortion is the ultimate violence against females,” said Reggie Littlejohn, President of Women’s Rights Without Frontiers. “Aborting a baby just because she is a girl is the ultimate act of gender discrimination.”

    20. jason says:

      Cori Bush: I’m going to make sure I have private security but defunding the police needs to happen.”

      Translation: if you can’t afford private security you are screwed.

    21. Tgca says:

      So commie-like SOD Austin to require all military get vaccine.

      What happens if thousands refuse to take the experimental vax with no studies done on long-term effects? You’re going to discharge thousands or court martial them?

    22. Bitterlaw says:

      Tgca – Feel free to not answer. I am not trying to start a war. You have said you have health issues. Did you get the vaccine? I did but I don’t believe it should be mandatory.

    23. lisab says:

      Translation: if you can’t afford private security you are screwed.


      i think jason posted that while not wearing a mask!

    24. lisab says:

      mecico is suing american gun manufacturers for the spread of violence in mexico!

      I suggest a retaliatory suit over the spread of taco bell innout country!

    25. jason says:

      i think jason posted that while not wearing a mask!”

      Not true.

      Rumor is the ZZZZ variant spreads through the Internet so I am not taking chances.

      And since llama spit is very effective against COVID I wipe the keyboard down with it after each post.

    26. jason says:

      I suggest a retaliatory suit over the spread of taco bell innout country”

      Yes, send them the bill for all the resulting obesity health related costs.

    27. jason says:

      Harris Poll:

      “Eighty-three percent of registered voters in the July 28-29 survey said they have a favorable view of police officers, while 17 percent said they have an unfavorable one.”

      This is not exactly good news, 17% is a lot of people, but electorally speaking it is a winning issue for Rs.

    28. Tgca says:


      I have not taken the vaccine, and I don’t plan on taken any mRNA vax. I am waiting for more research on long-term effects and then I would consider a non-mRNA vax like J&J.

      My health issues are joint and nerve disease which appears genetic or auto immune or just bad luck. Otherwise, my health is fine, probably from my exquisitely tasty tofu diet that you all resent immensely. My condition has improved and is stable after all the surgeries so I’m no longer a cripple…more like a gimp at times with lots of stiffness and occasional bouts of pain.

      So I should probably be around for sometime unless the Rapture comes in my lifetime or I get the Big C that runs in my family.

      So to be safe from Covid please do not try hugging me and giving me a Cuomo kiss that Eye Talyins are so fond of doing to show affection.

    29. Bitterlaw says:

      Tgca – I will continue to hate you. However, based upon your representation, I will no longer refer to you as a little cripple.

      I am glad you are not in as much pain.

    30. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      A Fauci quote: “he (Fauci) added, stressing the discussion around boosters “has absolutely nothing to do with the effectiveness of the vaccine.””

      Will Fauci also say that the large number of vaccinated people coming down with the virus has nothing to do with the effectiveness of the vaccine?

      Maybe he should fund further research at the Wuhan lab to get confirmation of his assertions.

    31. Tgca says:


      The only pain I’m feeling right now is in my heart now that I’m no longer your fav homo.


    32. Tgca says:

      Looks like majority of NY Assembly comes out for impeaching Cuomo and there are calls from Dems to have special session to start impeachment proceedings. Only a simple majority is required to start impeachment proceedings.

      This looks like the end for Cuomo.

    33. Phil says:

      Maybe Cuomo and Avenatti can share the same cell.

      This is CNN.

    34. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      33. Yes, and Chris Cuomo can visit every day and say: “You was framed.”

    35. Tgca says:

      I agree with Dershowitz in this article.

      There seems to be little legal ground from what we know thus far for criminal conviction of Cuomo for sexual harassment…and even if he should lose his job over it. There seems to be a number of anonymous complaints here too.

      Don’t get me wrong, I’d like to see him suffer politically because of many things, and especially if he did these things I’d very happy to see him pay the price but it hurts all men to assume he did what is claimed with little to no evidence.

      I have always believed if you are accused, you have a right to face your accuser and cross examine them in legal settings.

      It is ridiculous to say all women are to be believed because we know women lie just like men, and there have been numerous cases we’ve seen over the years where women falsely accused men of things they did not do for revenge or simply no reason.

      As Dershowitz stated, you could not get away with saying believe all Jews or Blacks or gays or any group, and for a prosecutor to use the “believe all women” as a basis in her pursuit of Cuomo shows she is not ethically or morally fit to be prosecutor.

    36. Tgca says:

      Just for the record, I would keep an open mind if any woman accused a man of sexual assault. I’ve known a number of women make this up and put on the fake tears to get men in trouble. This happens more than people know.

      Years ago, it wasn’t always taken as serious but in today’s world, one accusation could destroy you forever in this world where everything is in the public domain immediately.

      I still come across posts occasionally that say something to the effect that “ I don’t feel sorry for those Duke guys” that were falsely accused of rape by a druggie hooker or some that still think they did it and got away with it.

      Women SHOULD NOT be believed to the extent of publicly convicting someone until all evidence is considered. They should be taken seriously and treated with respect and compassion but there must be some level of proof before assuming someone is guilty of a heinous crime.

    37. Wes says:

      I assume New York has an impeachment process similar to the federal one with a simple majority required for impeachment in the State House with a 2/3 majority required in the State Senate for conviction and removal from office.

      I wonder what dirty laundry Cuomo will air for the State Senators to avoid conviction.

    38. Bitterlaw says:

      Wes – I heard a legal expert on BBC raise an interesting possible outcome. If Cuomo. Is impeached then he will immediately be removed from office. However, if the State Senate does not convict him, he would then resume his position as Governor.

    39. Wes says:

      I just looked up New York’s impeachment process:

      Basically 76 State Reps have to vote to impeach while 46 State Senators and State Supreme Court Justices must vote for Cuomo to have to leave office. During the impeachment trial, Cuomo would have to temporarily resign, thus meaning Kathy Hochul would become Acting Governor pending a conviction. If convicted, Cuomo would never be able to serve in state office again though theoretically he could run for local or federal office. Personally if Cuomo has to leave office, I’d like to see him primary Schumer as an FU for turning against him:–where-things-stand–how-it-would-work

    40. Wes says:

      Random trivia for everyone:

      In what two states does the State Senate never have seats up at the same time as the Governor?

    41. Bitterlaw says:

      Wes – Dream big. Trump moves back to New York. Cuomo is impeached and convicted. Cuomo defeats Schumer in a primary. This sets up a Cuomo vs Trump Senate battle for the ages. Picture the debates. Trump would say “You we’re impeached? I was impeached twice as President! You can’t top that.”

    42. Wes says:

      That would be hilarious, Bitter. I’d actually contribute to Trump in that putative campaign.

    43. Meldrim says:

      #40, Wes, VA is one of them, with the entire state senate being up in 2019, 2023, etc. while the gubernatorial race is in 2021, 2025, etc.

      I don’t know the other one, but I’m going to guess that it was the state that recently changed to gubernatorial elections in presidential-election years. The problem is that I can’t remember which state that was–was it MO, or ND? I’ll guess MO.

    44. Wes says:

      You’re right about VA, Meldrim. The other one is unusual as its entire State Legislature is up in even years while the Governor is up in odd years.

    45. Wes says:


      As implied in my above comment, the State House in this state also never has seats up when the Governor is up.

    46. Wes says:

      Five states’ State Houses have four-year terms. In four of them, both the State House and State Senate have regularly scheduled elections only when the Governor is up while in the fifth, the terms are staggered so half the seats are up at the same time as the Governor while the other half are not.

      Can anyone name these states?

    47. Annie says:

      Well gang, its a participation metal for the America hating women’s soccer team. Men in dresses and they still lose. Disgraceful.

    48. Meldrim says:

      If Cuomo doesn’t resign, the House will impeach him and he’ll have to step down as governor anyhow, at least temporarily. The Senate will then take its sweet time with the impeachment trial, since not making a decision is always better than making one, particularly when not doing anything and voting to convict both result in Hochul in the governorship. But if Cuomo makes noises about running for governor again next year, the Senate could pull the rug out from under him by convicting him and disqualifying him from future state office.

      So, given that refusing to resign will not keep Cuomo in power, what he should do is simple: resign before the House commences impeachment proceedings. That would moot the possibility of impeachment and conviction, meaning that Cuomo would not be disqualified from a future run for state office. And then, after several Democrats have declared their candidacy for governor (no way that NY Democrats would give Hochul, a white moderate Dem from Upstate, a free ride), Cuomo can file for the governorship on the last day of filing. With several Democrats on the ballot and no run-off, Cuomo can win the nomination with 35% of so (and his approval ratings among Democrats are much higher than that) and then face GOP nominee Lee Zeldin in the general. But he has to tear the Band-Aid off first and resign.

    49. Meldrim says:

      #44, hmm. I’m pretty sure that NJ has legislative elections in odd-numbered years, so that leaves LA, MS and KY. I’m going to guess MS, because when the legislature has to elect the governor (in cases in which the first-place finisher does not get 50%+1 or win a majority of counties), as it did in 2003 IIRC, I don’t think that there was an issue with the legislature doing the voting being lame ducks or else just recently sworn in.

    50. Meldrim says:

      #46, I have no idea, but I definitely prefer the staggered method so that a good election day for a party doesn’t result in complete control and no chance at a change for four years.

    51. Wes says:

      Kentucky is the other state where the State Senate and Governor are never up simultaneously, Meldrim. The Legislature is up in even years while the Governor is up the year before the presidential election.

    52. Wes says:

      MD, AL, MS, and LA have four-year terms for their Legislatures. All state legislative seats and the Governor are invariably up at the same time.

      ND has staggered four-year terms for the Legislature. Half the State House and State Senate are up when the Governor is up while the other half are up when the Governor isn’t running.

    53. Wes says:

      Actually, Meldrim, the State Legislature of MS picked the Governor in 1999. Then-LG Ronnie Musgrove finished first in the general election again D->R Congressman Mike Parker. Dems had retained the Legislature in the elections and chose Musgrove for Governor. Honestly I can’t be upset about that since Musgrove received a plurality of the popular vote and so was the choice of the people in the election.

      Four years later, Musgrove would lose 45-53 to Haley Barbour. Musgrove would then finish his political career ignominiously with a 10-point loss to Senator Roger Wicker in the 2008 special election to complete Trent Lott’s term.

    54. lisab says:

      Kentucky is the other state where the State Senate and Governor are never up simultaneously,

      i thought n always convicted their governor so they are never up simultaneously?

      or is that just tradition, not actually the law?

    55. lisab says:

      i’ve heard — from conspiracy types — that ny has absolutely no intention of getting rid of cuomo, he has too much power, and it is all just for show

    56. Wes says:

      What, Lisa? That makes no sense.

    57. lisab says:

      bill clinton has issued a statement on cuomo:

      “what?! of course he should resign, ONLY 11 women?!!!”

    58. lisab says:

      What, Lisa? That makes no sense

      basically the idea is they just want to get on the good side of metoo

      but won’t actually push him out

    59. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      One of the most impressive people I have ever met just passed away. Was on the USS West Virginia during Pearl Harbor:

      “SAN DIEGO (Tribune News Service) — Stu Hedley, a Pearl Harbor survivor and Navy veteran who spent decades stoking the flames of remembrance about that pivotal moment in American history, died Wednesday from COVID-19. He was 99.”

    60. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      59. “Hedley, a 20-year-old seaman apprentice, narrowly escaped death several times as the ship was hit by torpedoes and bombs.

      One explosion tore through the gun turret where he was positioned, killing a dozen of his shipmates. Escaping to shore meant swimming around and under flaming oil, sucking in breaths of scorching air. Taken by ambulance to a dispensary, he dodged shattering glass and flying shrapnel during a second wave of Japanese strafing.

      “I grew up in a hurry that day,” he told The San Diego Union-Tribune in a 2016 interview. “We all did.””

    61. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      Aug 4
      Majority of Americans (50.8%) lack confidence that the federal government is reporting unbiased Information on effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines – according to
      @trafalgar_group &@COSProject

      #Poll of likely ‘22 voters conducted 7/29-8/1 See Report:

    62. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      Bipartisan majority (71.4%) of American voters believe taking the COVID vaccines should be a personal choice, not mandatory – according to
      @trafalgar_group &@COSProject

      #Poll of likely ‘22 voters conducted 7/12-13 See Report:

    63. Tgca says:


      These are good and expected National numbers but I’m not seeing any stats on the number of unvaccinated Americans that Caleefawyins think should be prosecuted and jailed for non- compliance with vax.

    64. Tgca says:

      Mike Pence is encouraging everyone to get vaxed. I’m sure that will drive up the vax numbers ASAP.

    65. Tgca says:

      These are the lunatics teaching kids in school.

      I hope this is not an English teacher.

    66. Bitterlaw says:

      In addition to the teacher’s absurd story, did anybody else notice the tattoos? WTF. Did they hire the teacher out of a sketchy bar?

    67. Tgca says:

      Thix theven I thay!

      Thix theven!

    68. lisab says:

      did anyone ask they them if they could read or write?

      at least they know pronouns

    69. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      64. I agree with Mike Pence that people should be vaccinated, and I am myself. However, at the same time believe it is a personal decision, and should not be a government mandate.

      We do not know what the side effects will be in the long-term, and there are indications that one or more of the vaccines may only be effective for a limited time.
      If I was not in a situation of often being around large numbers of people, I might have forgone being vaccinated.

    70. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      The New York Times ran an article critical of Chris Cuomo. Compare his special treatment with how Covid patients were dumped into senior care facilities.

      “Andrew Cuomo soon faced criticism about New York State’s coronavirus response. It was also revealed that Chris Cuomo had received special access to government-run testing facilities, including a police escort for test samples, when he was fighting the virus. (At the time, CNN said Chris Cuomo “turned to anyone he could for advice and assistance, as any human being would.”)”

    71. Tgca says:


      The vax does not prevent you from getting Covid or transmitting it to others. It is reported to lessen the serious effects that might otherwise hospitalize or kill some but we don’t how long the immunity lasts and we don’t know the long-term effects of the vax, and with some of the severe reactions and deaths after the vax, more studies are needed, especially for those with autoimmune and blood diseases since this vax was never tested under normal protocols.

      I know of two people in their late 30s who were fully vaxed, in good health with no comorbidities that recently got Covid and both are sick with strong flu-like symptoms.

      If people wish to take the vax, fine but forcing it on others or requiring vax IDs is outrageous for a disease that is nearly 100% survivable.

      What’s next? Forced vax and IDs for flu which kills tens of thousands here annually that is also nearly 100% survivable?

      This is madness!

    72. Tgca says:

      I hear the wise sage Dr. Fow-Chee will be recommending wearing masks to bed if you share your bed with another person, regardless if you’ve been vaccinated or not.

      If you do not live alone, its ok to take off your mask when you go to bed but only if you have you have your own room and you keep your bedroom door closed

    73. Phil says:

      Biden to huddle with blue state AGs to discuss ways they can use existing state laws to sue gun manufacturers. The whole idea is to blame gun manufacturers, not the criminals, for the huge jump in crime. They lack 60 votes in the Senate to repeal federal legislation shielding gun manufacturers so the idea is to use state laws when possible to shut down gun manufacturers through litigation.

      It’s exactly what you would expect from the Biden administration.

    74. Country Dick Montana says:

      I have stated to friends that gun issues will be where the country spilts. Add it in the COVID mandates and we are quickly reaching a breaking point. My hope would be that a large part of the military would refuse to fire on American citizens (and frag any officer that orders it.). Of course Biden Administration would just call for UN “preach keepers”, the Chinese and Russians.

    75. Bitterlaw says:

      CDM – Any recommendations for an Italian Restaurant and an Irish Pub in Pittsburgh?

    76. jason says:

      Public announcement:

      This thread has been relegated to the dustbin of History.