Youngkin Leads By 2% in Two New VA Polls
Two new polls out today for the race in Virginia and both have Republican Glenn Youngkin ahead of Terry McAuliffe as we head into Election Day tomorrow.
The polls come from Insider Advantage and The Trafalgar Group.
GOVERNOR – VIRGINIA (Trafalgar)
Glenn Youngkin (R) 49%
Terry McAuliffe (D) 47%GOVERNOR – VIRGINIA (IA)
Glenn Youngkin (R) 47%
Terry McAuliffe (D) 45%
The Insider Advantage poll was done October 27-30 and the Trafalgar poll was done October 29-31, both among likely voters.
First
First
Youngkin gets the most votes tomorrow, but McAwful will be declared the winner.
Usually just read the comments but will occasionally post. Damn they don’t like Biden/Democrats in Virginia. Funny Biden won there by 10%. If this is an omen for the 2022 elections, it will be a Republican landslide.
Cinco Bebe! Cinco!
#3, DW, what if Youngkin gets the most votes and is declared the winner? Will you still say that every 2022 election will be stolen so the whole voting thing is pointless?
Two points? Not what I’d hoped out of Trafalgar.
We will see if that is enough.
#3, DW, what if Youngkin gets the most votes and is declared the winner? Will you still say that every 2022 election will be stolen so the whole voting thing is pointless?”
Translation: if a Republican wins a race somewhere or sometime then they couldn’t have been fraud anywhere.
there could not have been fraud.
Hey Gil, long time no see.
8
It is a truism that if there is no identifiable fraud in North Carolina, then there is no fraud elsewhere because as goes North Carolina, goes all other states.
IF Youngkin wins outside the MOF it means exactly that, that he won outside the MOF.
Nothing has changed, there has been no “improvement” over 2020 and it doesn’t mean elections won’t be stolen in VA or other parts of the country .
I won’t be voting tomorrow in PA, but I hope Brobson wins by getting enough votes outside the MOF for the PA supreme court seat. But should he win, it doesn’t mean the election system designed for fraud that the PA Dems have implemented is not longer in place, it certainly is. NOTHING has been done to address fraud in 2020 election in PA, NOTHING.
It is a truism that if there is no identifiable fraud in North Carolina, then there is no fraud elsewhere because as goes North Carolina, goes all other states.”
Yeah, but Meldrim has “improved” on that, now there can be no fraud if a Republican wins an election anywhere.
Two points? Not what I’d hoped out of Trafalgar.”
Well, 2.3 and room for improvement. So maybe 3.
I think that is the magic number. If Youngkin is ahead by 3 tomorrow night, he might be ahead by about 0.5 on Friday.
BTW, many analysts are warning their readers that most of the early voting took place when McAuliffe was ahead in the polls, so the recent momentum towards Youngkin may not help him as much as people think. But another thing to keep in mind is that pollsters, both quality ones like Trafalgar and hacks like Suffolk, ask people whether they already voted, and not only do they count votes that they are told already were cast, but they include within “likely voters” those who claim to have voted already (even if their prior voting activity would have made them unlikely to vote). So all of those votes for McAuliffe during early voting are counted in polls of likely voters, and McAuliffe *still* is behind by an average of around 3% in such polls. Basically, McAuliffe will lose unless (i) Democrats are refusing to answer polls while Republicans are answering more often, which would be a huge difference from recent experience, (ii) people have been lying to pollsters about wanting to vote for Youngkin over McAuliffe, (iii) the likely-voter screens being biased in favor of the GOP, or (iv) the election ending up being close enough that the Democrats can steal it, and they indeed do cheat enough to steal it.
I think that the odds of a combination of those four factors producing a McAuliffe victory is quite low, and I would estimate Youngkin’s odds of victory at over 95%. My final prediction is Youngkin 51%, McAuliffe 48%, Princess + write-ins 1%. I am also predicting Sears over Ayala 50.5% to 48.5% and Miyares over Herring by 49.5% to 48.5%, and the House of Delegates moving from 55D-45R to 54R-46D. I don’t think that we’ll see very much ticket-splitting, particularly in NoVA and other suburban areas.
Breaking News:
“A judge in California stands ready to issue a ruling tomorrow night should Glenn Youngkin’s vote tally exceed that of Terry McAuliffe.
The honorable Justice C. Ima Krook issued a statement saying, ‘More important than one election result is the actual direction of the country, which has been moving left for decades, particularly so in the state of Virginia.’
Krook went on to say she ‘stands ready’ to vacate the election results and declare McAuliffe the winner in the unlikely event that the counties in Northern Virginia around the nations’s capital fail to push McAuliffe over the top.
Krook explained, ‘The pattern of all recent elections in the commonwealth include a strong Republican lead among the early vote tallies, followed by the inevitable Democratic victory as the full count is added from the precincts closest to the nation’s capital.’
Krook continued, ‘…should that late tally fall short of what is needed, a ruling on the matter will be issued to declare McAuliffe the winner, so as to not frustrate the inevitable political direction of Virginia.’
Judge Krook declined to comment if related rulings were prepared for the Virginia race for Lt. Governor and Attorney General.”
I’d be thrilled by 2.3 in an up and up election.
The problem is the up and up election part. That’s what is sad.
6 – I have never said voting is pointless.
I have said that some elections are stolen, which is absolutely true.
It is also true that some elections are not stolen. For instance, Reagan defeated Carter, then four years later, he defeated Mondale. Obama defeated McCain because McCain was a horrible candidate. That election was not stolen.
Jason, I’m not saying that if there’s no Democrat fraud in VA (or, more to the point, if Democrat fraud isn’t sufficient to steal the election) that it means that there won’t be Democrat fraud anywhere else ever again. I’m just saying that, if the Democrats don’t steal this one, then, perhaps, one shouldn’t assume that elections are rigged and that voting is pointless because the Democrats will steal it.
On that Trafalgar poll:
45.8 Democrat
37.8 Republican
16.5 Non-Partisan/ Other
53.8 WOMEN
46.3 MEN
These sound like really good numbers for that result.
20
Yes, those do look like good numbers.
Trafalgar also shows NJ at a 4 point race. I predicted a 52-48 Murphy win, so I am pleased with that part of it, though I feel bad for the 48% who know that mandates are on the table come Wednesday morning and are about to get screwed.
Ws, I did make use of your moniker, not to annoy Bitter, but because having spent considerable time in NJ, the lush pastoral areas just cannot outweigh the urban blight there (Camden, Trenton, and the mess up by NYC). I did hope to annoy some of the RRH posters, but alas, no one took the bait.
https://twitter.com/trafalgar_group/status/1455221420728934405?t=r37sPPdfciFpm-mh0p-Wdg&s=19
Trafalgar also shows NJ at a 4 point race. I predicted a 52-48 Murphy win, so I am pleased with that part of it, though I feel bad for the 48% who know that mandates are on the table come Wednesday morning and are about to get screwed.
Wes, I did make use of your moniker, not to annoy Bitter, but because having spent considerable time in NJ, the lush pastoral areas just cannot outweigh the urban blight there (Camden, Trenton, and the mess up by NYC). I did hope to annoy some of the RRH posters, but alas, no one took the bait.
https://twitter.com/trafalgar_group/status/1455221420728934405?t=r37sPPdfciFpm-mh0p-Wdg&s=19
Election fraud never happens. Ask Nixon about Illinois and Texas in 1960. He’ll tell you
What Jason and Tgca are apparently incapable of grasping is that, yes, there are legitimately stolen races. We can cite WA-Gov 2004 and MN-Sen 2008 as examples.
Hell, the only obviously stolen presidential election in history is one Republicans won in 1876. Republicans stacked the previously evenly divided commission with an extra member of their own, who promptly voted to give all outstanding states to the GOP and awarded the presidency to Rutherford Hayes.
However, pretending Donald Trump lost because of fraud when the truth is that he simply refused to accept reality and tried to steal the election for himself in the courts in no way proves Democrats are going to steal every election going forward.
Democrats will indeed steal elections in the future unfortunately. The loss of the presidency by Donald Trump was not a result of fraud but of the deep-rooted antipathetic feelings he generated across large swathes of voters for years, ultimately leading to his loss to a doddering old man whose presidency is in full meltdown.
The last domino falls:
https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/a-last-word-on-virginia/
Larry Sabato moves VA-Gov to Lean R. Sabato has traditionally been more bullish on Dems than results justify. For him to predict Youngkin will win only cements the reality that TMac has done too much self-damage to win.
It is hard to run a climate conference. Finding places to store all the private jets is difficult:
“Amazon founder Jeff Bezos’ £48million Gulf Stream has led a 400-strong parade of private jets into COP25 including Prince Albert of Monaco, scores of royals and dozens of ‘green’ CEOs – as an extraordinary traffic jam forced empty planes to fly 30 miles to find space to park.
Some environmental activists at the COP26 climate conference will be urging others to cut down on air travel and eat less meat, but little has been said about the billionaires flying in on their own planes on routes already served by commercial airlines.”
26 – that is interesting. Sabato, as one of the ‘three toupees’ we used to talk about…he was the worst of them. To the left of Charlie Cook.
Regarding #16 above. The story about the California judge overturning the Virginia election results.
I wanted to let everyone know, that although this story is entirely believable, I did make this story up.
We live in days where it is nearly impossible to use hyperbole in a story involving California, because if you caricature the state today, then tomorrow it will be reality.
Sewer Staters will continue to vote for the worst available option:
https://newjerseyglobe.com/governor/murphy-has-8-point-lead-over-ciattarelli-in-new-rutgers-eagleton-poll/
Murphy is up 50-42 in the final poll of the race.
We should just decertify New Jersey as a part of the US and let it become its own banana republic. Honestly, Bitter, I’d be embarrassed if I lived in a state where my senior Senator was an overly corrupt child rapist.
#25, Wes, you wrote “Republicans stacked the previously evenly divided commission with an extra member of their own, who promptly voted to give all outstanding states to the GOP and awarded the presidency to Rutherford Hayes.” That’s a rather uncharitable way to describe what occurred.
The Electoral Commission, which was composed of 5 Representatives, 5 Senators and 5 SCOTUS Justices, was going to be 7R, 7D and 1I, with politically independent Supreme Court Justice David Davis having been selected, but the Democrats attempted to bribe Davis (or at least butter him up) by having the IL state legislature electing him to the U.S. Senate. Davis shocked everyone by accepting the election to the Senate and resigning from the Supreme Court and thus from the Commission. Only then did the GOP Congress appoint a third Republican Justice to the Commission.
And the fact that all of the votes for which slate of electors to accept ended up 8-7 (among party lines) is evidence that the Democrat Committee members were being overtly partisan. One of the disputed electors was from Oregon, a state that incontrovertibly had been carried by Hayes, but where the Democrat governor ruled that one of the Hayes electors was disqualified for being a U.S. postmaster (a position from which the elector resigned, to no avail) and then appointed a Tilden elector instead of one of the alternate Hayes electors as would have been required. The fact that the seven Democrats voted to count the illegally appointed elector from Oregon was a clear sign of bias, while it was by no means unreasonable for the eight Republicans to recognize the Hayes electors in FL, SC and LA, states in which the holdover Republican governments had thrown out results from areas in which local Democrat authorities had prevented blacks from voting, thus giving Hayes narrow statewide victories.
I’m aware of all the moving parts of the 1876 election, Meldrim, but obviously Democrats were going to be partisan while Republicans were also going to be partisan. Another Independent should have sat on that commission. The Republicans intentionally stacks it to get Hayes in office.
Realistically what are the odds every outstanding vote in the Electoral College that year was for Hayes? Giving just one of them to Tilden would have put him in the White House. Now realistically Hayes was a decent, if unremarkable, President who ended Reconstruction and kept his ambitious in check enough to retire at the end of his term, but the idea that he won all those Electoral Votes legitimately is at best suspect and at worst fallacious.
LOL
WASHINGTON, Nov 1 (Reuters) – U.S. President Joe Biden’s domestic agenda suffered a significant setback on Monday when moderate Democratic Senator Joe Manchin announced he would not yet support a $1.75 trillion framework unveiled late last week.”
Manchin must be reading the polls, doesn’t really want to stay on deck playing music while the Titanic sinks.
https://www.insideelections.com/news/article/rating-change-virginia-governor-to-toss-up
On the heels of Sabato, Inside Elections moves its VA-Gov rating one notch to the right to say Tossup. It’s increasingly clear TMac is doomed.
Now the progressive moonbats probably won’t vote for the bipartisan bill either.
Shucks.
“The loss of the presidency by Donald Trump was not a result of fraud but of the deep-rooted antipathetic feelings he generated across large swathes of voters for years, ultimately leading to his loss to a doddering old man whose presidency is in full meltdown.”
BS. That is just MSM talking points, and even IF true, does not mean that fraud could not have cost him the election.
Trump lost by 42k votes in 3 states with significant vote fraud issues, not even counting PA, NV and MI.
You can believe that there was no fraud in GA (12k votes), WI (20k votes) and AZ (10 k votes). You can also believe in the tooth fairy.
McAuliffe cancels event in VA Beach tonight.
I am sure there is some excuse, but it looks bad.
No, Jason. It’s not talking points. It’s reality. You’re just repeating the Trump talking points.
You’re too stupid to think for yourself or base any analysis on anything substantive. You’re nothing but a joke, and I can’t help laughing at your fact-free analysis of politics.
Gateway pundit follow up on Jason’s post.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2021/11/mcauliffe-abruptly-cancels-virginia-beach-rally-election-eve-youngkin-draws-large-crowds-candidates-barnstorm-state/
Trump won 2016 election.
Biden won 2020 election.
Get over it.
And for President Trump to tell GOP voters to sit out upcoming elections as a sign of protest is just so stupid…it’s difficult to put into words.
I agree, Skippy. I wholeheartedly agree.
Jason, I’m not saying that if there’s no Democrat fraud in VA (or, more to the point, if Democrat fraud isn’t sufficient to steal the election) that it means that there won’t be Democrat fraud anywhere else ever again. I’m just saying that, if the Democrats don’t steal this one, then, perhaps, one shouldn’t assume that elections are rigged and that voting is pointless because the Democrats will steal it.”
If the Dems aren’t successful in stealing this one, it doesn’t mean they won’t be successful stealing other ones.
I never said voting was pointless, nor did I ever tell anyone they should not vote. I said I would no longer vote in PA because I view the process dishonest and corrupt, and that legitimate votes are being disenfranchised and diluted by illegal votes. I don’t feel like participating in such a system. If I lived in Texas or another state that has actually taken steps to try to mitigate fraud I might feel differently.
You’re too stupid to think for yourself or base any analysis on anything substantive”
Zzzzzzz…. 42k votes in 3 states is substantive.
Vapid MSM talking points about Trump are just that, vapid talking points.
I am sorry reality doesn’t fit your narrative.
Link?
And for President Trump to tell GOP voters to sit out upcoming elections as a sign of protest is just so stupid…it’s difficult to put into words.
VA Beach has to be looking good for Youngkin, perhaps the Dems knew that his crowds there would dwarf TMac’s.
Totally random, but typing “TMac” just now made me think of “Mac and Me,” almost universally considered to be one of the worst films ever made. I can seem TMac flying downhill in the wheelchair towards his impending doom as the emergency break rips off:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=K5le9sYdYkM
Damn, I thought I caught the typos (wireless at the. a clinic sucks):
Seems = see
Break = brake
Jason again with his idiotic fact-free analysis.
Keep looking like the moron you are, Jason. I’ll just keep laughing at you and calling you out as a blithering moron.
You’re an idiot, and even people who agree with you on this issue have acknowledged it
And for President Trump to tell GOP voters to sit out upcoming elections as a sign of protest is just so stupid…it’s difficult to put into words.”
What is stupid is pretending he actually said that.
What he actually said:
“If we don’t solve the Presidential Election Fraud of 2020 (which we have thoroughly and conclusively documented), Republicans will not be voting in ’22 or ’24,” Trump declared. “It is the single most important thing for Republicans to do.”
He said not investigating fraud will depress R turnout. That is certainly true in my case.
And I agree with him that investigating fraud is the most important thing for Rs to do if they don’t want future elections stolen as well.
You’re an idiot, and even people who agree with you on this issue have acknowledged it”
LOL.
Are they idiots too because they think your vapid, sophomoric endless repeating of MSM talking points and TDS is moronic?
We are a step or two away from the Fib “investigating” the Let’s go Brandon chants. Something that fake media created in the first place.
NBC News
@NBCNews
· 15m
Gun dealers are marketing weapon parts and ammunition using a right-wing slogan widely understood as code for profanity directed at President Biden. https://nbcnews.to/3w7UKil
You’re a moron posting fact-free analysis with nothing backing them, Jason.
I’m just going to keep laughing at you and your vapid, delusional posts.
Vapid, sophomoric, and endless, Jason?
In other words, you’re describing your own posts.
Seriously, Jason, you tried to spin Biden’s low-40s approval rating as some kind of good news for him indicating the media have successfully propped him up.
That combined with your sophomoric analysis of the 2020 presidential election proves only one thing:
You are indeed a moron.
Lol
Greg Price
@greg_price11
·
1h
I was on a Southwest flight this morning and my pilot said “Lets Go Brandon.” I was so disgusted that I literally puked up my vaccine through the three masks I was wearing.
Breaking911
@Breaking911
·
1h
BREAKING: Sen. Joe Manchin on reconciliation package: “Simply put: I will not support a bill that is this consequential without thoroughly understanding the impact that it’ll have on our national debt, our economy, and most importantly all of our American people.”
ndicating the media have successfully propped him up.”
wes doesn’t think the MSM props Biden up?
I guess that gets Delusional Moron Award of the Year.
His Fraudulency fell asleep today.
https://mobile.twitter.com/kayleighmcenany/status/1455225975789211654
wes, I know you can’t admit there was fraud in 2020 because it doesn’t fit your narrative that mean tweets doomed Trump’s Presidency.
Sometimes stupidity boxes you in, I am sorry you have to repeat endless MSM talking points, it must be tough.
Who said the media doesn’t prop up Biden?
Hell, they do it 24/7 and they work their asses off doing so.
Skippy says:
November 1, 2021 at 3:05 pm
Biden won 2020 election.”
Damm, Skippy gets another one wrong.
But I am hoping tomorrow we will bring one in for Skippy.
He deserves it.
Lying about F Joe Biden by saying the crowd is chanting let’s go Branson, is an example of the fake media propping up his Fraudulency.
You’re a liar as well as a moron, Jason. I never said there wasn’t fraud. I’ve repeatedly said that occurs to some degree in every election. What I have said is that the Trump-generated conspiracy theories saying there was enough fraud in several states where Trump was already showing weakness or had barely won because of Hillary’s weakness are laughable.
I’m sorry to have to explain reality to you in your fantasy world.
Wow, McAuliffe is unhinged
We got to work hard to diversify our teacher base,” McAuliffe said at a campaign event in Manassas Sunday.
“Fifty percent of our students are students of color, 80% of the teachers are White, so what I’m going to do for you, we’ll be the first state in America,” he continued. “If you go teach in Virginia for five years in a high-demand area — that could be geographic, it could be course work — we will pay room, board, tuition, any college, any university, or any HBCU here in Virginia.”
White teachers can’t teach students of color?
Phil, I never said the media haven’t tried to prop up Biden. I’ve said they’ve been unsuccessful because of the many failures and of his Administration and their enormity.
I’ve repeatedly said that occurs to some degree in every election.”
Zzzzz…
So 2020 was just another election, right? Nothing to see here.
You really are an MSM brainwashed fool.
You always know when Jason is losing an argument:
He creates points people didn’t make and responds to them as if the other person actually said them.
As I said he’s a moron and a liar.
“I’ve said they’ve been unsuccessful”
Let’s give him the Delusional MSM Brainwashed Toady Award.
Stupidity, thy name is Jason.
wes is at war with his own words again.
Pathetic.
“I’ve said they’ve been unsuccessful”
Your own words.
You can keep making your moronic posts, Jason. I’ll just keep laughing at you.
You’re a moron and a liar, and each vapid post of yours just puts that truth further on display.
wes, when are you going to start saying “orangeman bad”.
That is popular with the TDS crowd.
“vapid”
Can’t you come up with your own words?
Or are you going to use sophomoric too?
Those are my words, Jason.
Biden is hovering at ~40% in polls with the trend in one direction over the past nine months. It’s clear to anyone but a moron like you the attempt has been unsuccessful.
Funny that wes thinks the MSM is unsuccessful, but loves repeating their talking points.
“It’s clear to anyone but a moron like you the attempt has been unsuccessful.”
Nah, what is clear to anyone smarter than you are is that if Trump had shown 10% of the cognitive decline Biden has, the MSM would be clamoring to have him removed from office.
I could use words like moronic, idiotic, ridiculous, stupid, and laughable, Jason, but I don’t feel like cluttering my posts with words you aren’t smart enough to understand.
I wonder why Trafalgar used a model that was D +8 !!
On today’s “Dreyfus issue” here at HHR:
I think the best way to view (possible) vote fraud in 2020 is to read “Rigged.” It’s interesting to me that mentioning the book at RRH creates a maelstrom of HATE and outrage from lefties there, because Hemingway suggests that granular, low level cheating MAY have cost Trump the election. But folks on the right don’t dig it much either– because Hemingway also refuses to endorse the suggestion that systemic, massive fraud occurred.
Jason the Moron declares himself smart, facts to the contrary notwithstanding.
Sabato, Lawrence is unhinged. His candidate is not doing too well.
Curtis Houck
@CurtisHouck
· 49m
.@LarrySabato says, if @GlennYoungkin wins, it’ll be b/c of white power & accepting lies: “The operative word is…race. That is what matters…There’s a lot of…white backlash, white resistance, whatever you want to call it…We live in a post-factual era[.]” #VAgov
I’d love to see what Biden’s numbers would look like if he got the Trump treatment. I watched Biden’s press conference today where he got nothing but softball questions. Here’s a question, Joe. Are you really going to pay some illegals half a million a piece and a million a family? …..but no, that question is off limits. If he just got half the treatment Trump got he’d be lower than the low mid forties. The MSM is worth five points. It truly is.
White Supremists helped Younkin win.
– Cn and N
Whatever.
Keep thinking there Biden actually won GA by 12k votes and AZ by 20k votes and WI by 20k votes, and there was no fraud in any of these states.
I think anyone who believes that is a moron.
But I know, doesn’t fit your MSM talking points.
We are not going to agree.
So let’s just move on.
If I didn’t detest McA for a lot of other reasons already, I’d still be skeptical of any candidate who talks about how terrific local school boards and curricula are– while sending 4 of his own kids to private schools.
Good enough for thee, but not for me, eh Gov?
Have to say, when Wes and jason are out there calling each other names……..it’s like Christmas came early!
“The MSM is worth five points. It truly is.”
-More than that.
I watched Biden’s press conference today where he got nothing but softball questions. Here’s a question, Joe. Are you really going to pay some illegals half a million a piece and a million a family? …..but no, that question is off limits. If he just got half the treatment Trump got he’d be lower than the low mid forties. The MSM is worth five points. It truly is.”
It it worth more than that. Biden is still in office.
NYC is agreeing with me on the MSM?
Another attempt to besmirch my character, but I will survive.
I don’t know if there’s a huge difference between 40% and 35%, Phil. GWB was mired around 40% for most of the first three years of his second term, and Democrats won big in 2005 and 2006. He didn’t crater all the way to the high 20s till 2008–and of course Democrats won a huge victory that year. Obama was in the low 40s in 2010, coming off a high in the mid 60s in early 2009, and Republicans won back more seats than they’d lost in 2006 and 2008 combined.
To me, a low presidential approval rating is a low presidential approval rating and damages his party regardless of whether it’s 40% or 35%.
GlennYoungkin wins, it’ll be b/c of white power & accepting lies: “The operative word is…race. That is what matters…There’s a lot of…white backlash, white resistance, whatever you want to call it…We live in a post-factual era”
But Dems want to bring the “country together” right?
McAuliffe has really lost it. Just read his quotes of today. Sounded like he’s for some sort of racial quotas for teachers.
He’s desperate to prop up black turnout and in doing so he’s gone off the deep end.
Desperation.
Yeah the msm were fair and balanced during the 2020 election.
Seem to remember how well they covered the Hunter Biden laptop story, which involved payments to the “big guy.”
I don’t know if there’s a huge difference between 40% and 35%, Phil.”
LOL
84 NYC
You still calling it quits with the Isles? I lost track of them, I confess.
I’ve watched or listened to some or all of every Blues game so far. They are fascinating, but not “good” yet.
Well, Jason, I think anyone who believes Biden didn’t win those states is merely unwilling to accept reality. Except you. You’re a moron.
We are not going to agree on this. You’re right.
Thus, I’m willing to accept your request and move on from debating this.
Yeah the msm were fair and balanced during the 2020 election.
Seem to remember how well they covered the Hunter Biden laptop story, which involved payments to the “big guy.”
Nah, according to wes, the problem was Trump’s tweets.
The MSM was “unsuccessful” in driving up Trump’s negatives, and now they are “unsuccessful” in propping up Biden.
Amazingly I produced facts to bolster my opinion in the form of verified election results. Jason produced an LOL.
Who made the stronger argument here?
Thus, I’m willing to accept your request and move on from debating this.”
Ok.
Jason creates another argument I didn’t make to try to counter.
Again that’s the sign of someone who’s lost an argument.
Here is Larry Sabatos own words.
https://mobile.twitter.com/CurtisHouck/status/1455247487086780427
Here in the Hampton Roads area, early in the 2021 campaign for Governor, the McAwful signs would just have one word, “TERRY” as if McAuliffe’s team was suggesting his brand is so well known and accepted, all that’s needed is his first name (like Hillary). Then about a couple months ago, those signs disappeared, and now they are “McAuliffe” signs, and most of them include the names of the Dems running for Lt. Gov and AG.
I hear what you are trying to say, Wes but five points makes a huge difference. It ‘s not whether the President and his party are hurt or not. The degree of the hurt matters on Election days.
His Fraulency is now apologizing to Euro weiners.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2021/11/joe-biden-bows-globalists-apologizes-trump-pulling-paris-accords-video/
Pass the popcorn.
“Virginia Sen. Mark Warner just framed a McAuliffe loss tomorrow as the fault of progressives for not passing infrastructure”
I like it when the post mortem starts before anyone died yet.
Guys
Here’s my view. The COVID-inspired changes in voting procedures, combined with the $471 million in Zuckerbucks “aid” to blue county election boards, created conditions conducive to fraud. There is some evidence to suggest that these two things in tandem MAY have led to small scale fraud which MAY well have cost Trump 2 or more states
On this European trip, so far, the President has fallen asleep, sheot himself, slur his speech, and apologize fo Euoepean leftist thrash.
I’d say losing 69 seats in Congress on a single night as Democrats did in 2010 would be a sign of major damage, Phil. Across two elections and three specials from 2006 to 2008, they’d gained 68 when Bush had lower approvals.
My argument is that once a President gets to the point of a 40% approval rating, the backlash against his party will be catastrophic. Going by the elections I cited, I’m comfortable with that analysis.
I like it when the post mortem is for a democrat.
Yup, failed infrastructure vote and white suprematists, aided by President Mean Tweets, caused Mcawful to lose.
Warner has gone 4-1 in elections in VA. I’d say he knows enough about the electorate to realize TMac will fall tomorrow.
They need to add Russians into the equation. When do we get the muh Russians aligned with the muh white supremacists caused Mcawful to lose?
Having to declare TMac will lose has caused Larry Sabato to go completely unhinged:
https://mobile.twitter.com/CurtisHouck/status/1455247487086780427?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
Sabato used to be a go-to guy for political analysis. He’s completely divorced from reality now.
LOL. Wes apparently lost his copy of “How to Win Friends and Influence People”….
112 comes from the guy who calls Trump supporters “knuckle draggers” and tries to project that sentiment onto me.
They LOVE Manchin over a DKos…
“He held a press conference, to trash the democrats plan, the day before an important election in VA that democrats are scrambling to get every democrat they can out to vote. No, he is a Republican plant. He is in in all the meetings, then hatches ways to thwart any progress out on his yacht, with his republican buddies. We have been ruined by this Manchin/Trojan horse.”
As expected, a liberal on RRH tries to defend TMac’s blatantly racist statement about VA teachers:
Not to derail into policy too much, but this is literally the most normal suggestion ever, which is probably why Youngkin’s team passed on commenting on it.
Apparently Dems want to bring back segregation and Jim Crow now.
I think the technical term of art for Sabato is, “sore loser.”
I’m sure the several dozen viewers watching him on msnbc were nodding along in agreement!
The election in VA will cease to be “important” as soon as McA concedes. Then it will be “UNimportant, signifying nothing.”
All due to a poor campaign by McA… and a couple of unlucky coinkydinks which were unforeseeable!
Sabato I always knew was hard core left,albeit trying to hide it w Neil Cavuto when I was dumb enough to watch him.
The scales have been wiped clean about how overwhelming the left dominates all media,and has for years.
My predictions for tomorrow:
Youngkin wins 51-48
Murphy wins 54-44
#32, Wes, you appear to be a bit confused about the Electoral Commission created by Congress to decide which electors to accept from states with disputed electors.
You wrote:
“Another Independent should have sat on that commission. The Republicans intentionally stacks it to get Hayes in office.”
The Electoral Commission was composed of five Representatives, five Senators and five Supreme Court Justices. Congress named 3 House Dems, 2 House Republicans, 2 Senate Dems and 3 Senate Republicans (so 5R, 5D), and then appointed 2 SCOTUS Dems and 2 SCOTUS Republicans, leaving it to the four Justices to appoint that final member of the Commission. The two D and two R Justices selected David Davis, who was an Independent.
But when the Democrats sought to bribe or butter up Davis by electing him to the U.S. Senate from IL, he accepted the election and quit SCOTUS and the Commission. Now the four Justices on the Commission needed to appoint a fifth Justice to the Commission to serve as Davis’s replacement, and *and all four Justices available to be appointed were Republican*. The Justices appointed Justice Joseph Bradley, who was seen as more politically neutral than the other Republican Justices not yet on the Commission.
Wes, would you still say that Republicans “intentionally stacked” the Commission to have a Republican majority?
You then wrote:
“Realistically what are the odds every outstanding vote in the Electoral College that year was for Hayes?”
Wes, in 1876, every state had winner-takes-all presidential elections (well, technically all but CO, which had just been admitted to the Union and, with no time for an election, had the state legislature appoint the electors). Please explain how a member of the Commission was supposed to have ruled that, say, LA elected only some of the 8 Hayes electors and not all 8? Decisions regarding each state were going to be all-or-nothing, whether for Hayes or for Tilden.
The Democrat commissioners all thought that the fact that local Democrat sheriffs permitted the Klan to stand in from of the polls and not permit for blacks to vote was fine and dandy, and that the tainted results from such precincts (not surprisingly, heavily for Tilden once black voters were excluded), in each of LA, FL and SC, should be counted as if they had been obtained honestly, and thus that the 19 Tilden electors from such states should be recognized. The Republican commissioners all thought that the voting-rights violations in certain Democrat-controlled precincts in LA, FL and SC were so egregious as to invalidate all votes cast in such precincts (all by whites, most of whom voted Democrat), and that meant that Hayes won statewide and thus the 19 Hayes electors from such states should be recognized. It is silly to believe that the vote for each commissioner would be anything other than 19 electors for Hayes or 19 electors for Tilden. And does it really surprise you that the Democrat commissioners all voted to ignore the intentional disenfranchisement of black voters–who were unanimously Republican–by local Democrat officials, while all of the Republican commissioners sought to prevent such disenfranchisement?
There was one elector dispute that did not involve nearly identical facts, and thus could have been expected to be decided in a different way than the other 19 disputed electors. The Governor of Oregon’s disqualification of one of the three Hayes electors, and replacement with a defeated Tilden elector (instead of a Hayes alternate elector if being a postmaster at the time of the election but not at the time of the Electoral College meeting indeed was disqualifying), despite Hayes having carried the state by 3.54% over Tilden, should have been invalidated by all 15 Commissioners, with three Hayes electors being recognized. Not one of the Democrat commissioners voted for that no-brainer of a decision.
Wes, I know that NC voted for Tilden in 1876 (although Hayes got a relatively competitive 46.38%), but you shouldn’t keep repeating the Big Lie that Republicans stole the 1876 presidential election from those noble ex-Confederates.
#119, Let’s Go Brandon!
: )
Wes actually believes the demented buffoon in the WH got 80 million votes. And that Trump expanded his s base and yet lost by 8 million votes. Predicting US elections is a waste of time as they are neither free nor fair.
Go big or go home.
Youngkin 53-46-1
Ciatarrelli 50.02-49.98
My theory is the polls are not fully capturing McAulliffe’s collapse in the last couple days.
Murphy should win 53-47, but Biden is self destructing in Europe, Manchin is not cooperating with the boondoggle, Dems are fading in VA, and things move in tandem.
So I think Murphy collapses overnight and because it was unexpected the Dems won’t be able to rig the election fast enough, so Ciatarrelli wins by around 6000* votes.
• don’t check this math, I didn’t.
Brandon, always nice to see another A-hole.
I’m not as confident about my NJ prediction as my VA one, but I’ll go with Murphy 52%, Ciattarelli 47%. Biden got 3% more in NJ than in VA, but I think that Murphy will get 4% more than McAuliffe will get because 1% of McAuliffe’s drop is due to VA issues not applicable in the entire suburban Northeast.
Who said anything about “Noble ex-Confederates,” Meldrim?
Try not to go the Jason route of creating arguments others didn’t make to respond to. For the record, Tilden wasn’t a Southerner, so I don’t see how saying he won has any bearing on the Confederacy.
Regardless, Democrats agreed not to contest the results if Hayes would end Reconstruction, so all sides were complicit in the results.
On the other hand, the Commission originally was balanced as you say with a political Independent as tiebreaker until Davis left it. Then a Republican took his place, and the Commission voted along party lines to give all outstanding electors to Hayes. Do you really think Hayes legitimately won all those outstanding Southern EVs?
That’s highly unlikely at best. OR should have gone to Hayes. Then if even one Southern state had gone to Tilden, Tilden would have won. That’s simple math since Tilden was at 184 of 185 Electors needed. The Commission granted all remaining Electors to Hayes and secured him the election.
I’d like to see some numbers crunching on that if Republicans didn’t have a one-seat majority on the Commission. Most likely at least SC–which until well into the 20th Century routinely gave over 90% of its popular vote to Democrats–would have gone to Tilden without the 1877 agreement. As in 2000, one state literally made a difference.
I’ve studied the election and even read books describing the election. I honestly don’t see how Hayes would have won without the agreement between Democrats and Republicans to give him the election.
My friend Jadon is correct that there is vastly more than ample evidence to demonstrate election fraud in a few states that cost Trump the election.
If you follow the trail you see numerous anomalies of voting data that indicates fraud occurred. That is how fraud investigations are usually performed because rarely do you catch people in the act of fraud itself (e.g. submitting fake ballots). You show inconsistencies and improbable events occurring and follow it up with any available paper trails and witness testimonials.
I believe there were approximately 80+ different lawsuits filed in various courts on the 2020 election and they were all dismissed on standing or similar grounding. NOT one of them look at any data analysis. NOT one!
It takes time to put together data and show fraud and it was never likely that would happen before election certification, especially when there was opposition and roadblocks to gathering necessary data.
I gave examples of this approach to how data is used in other criminal cases such as finger prints or DNA forensics. Technically, it is not possible to prove that duplicate DNA or finger prints don’t exist without reviewing the DNA or finger prints of everyone in the world, and that still does not prove future occurrence can’t happen. But we know from probabilities and statistical data analysis that you don’t have to catch people in the act to prove it. Forensics is built on this type of gathering evidentiary material using statistical data and the probability of an occurrence.
That is the case with some of this 2020 fraud. The fact that a number of states have started audits is evident to this and not just window dressing. Even GA reversed itself on the likelihood of fraud after initially denying it.
The courts were reluctant to step in because they did not want to be responsible for it either way. Take PA for example. They violated state law that could lead to fraud when they illegally changed the rules but the courts just refused to address it. SCOTUS argued in one instance that it would look at the issue later and not hold up certification but then argued it was moot after certification and dismissed the case. That was a kangaroo approach by the courts.
Like much in history, I think history will look back at this time and see the probability of fraud was much greater than not.
Pitchaboy, if you actually knew anything about politics, you wouldn’t have a string of failed predictions a gigaparsec long under your belt.
You don’t know anything about politics as evidenced by your inability to ever predict even a single outcome accurately, so you shouldn’t mouth off about a subject you’re completely ignorant on.
You too, jason. Everyone’s been saying my name lately so I figured I’d make an appearance.
Biden’s extra votes that propelled him to 7 million beyond Trump all came from CA and NY. US elections are won electorally by state and not by a national vote.
That’s like saying the Academy Awards should be determined on which picture brings in the most at the box office. It’s not the correct measurement and a silly argument.
People only use it to try and shut down others with but but but…
128
Since Wes is trying to shut down Pitch with “I know more than you,” we can safely say that Wes knows as much about fraud and forensics as he claims Pitch knows about politics so Wes should not be relied upon for making such claims of accuracy of elections as to fraudulent or not.
Hey, Tg, if a person can’t predict even a single election right–as Pitch has failed to do for a decade now–maybe that person should do research on the subject and try to get something right occasionally.
That’s a novel idea, I know.
Everyone will get a result wrong. I have done it in the past, as has everyone else. The idea is to try to analyze things in the future and actually make one’s predictions reasonable rather than contrarian indicators.
Anyway, I hadn’t mentioned Pitch at all today. He wanted to carry over a fight from days past. Fair enough. I was more than willing to hit back.
You do not need to be an expert in an underlying subject matter to prove fraud within it. You just need to know how to gather relevant data, analyze it, and compare it to expectations and cross examine witnesses and understand general concepts of the underlying subject matter.
Most fraud is investigated by people with specialty in identifying fraud and not by personally having a detailed knowledge of the underlying subject matter material itself.
You don’t have to be a CPA to determine if fraudulent financial data was filed with the SEC.
You don’t have to be a securities trader to determine securities fraud.
You don’t have to be an MD to determine medical fraud by a doctor.
You don’t have to be a tax professional or enrolled agent to prove tax fraud.
You don’t have to be a computer scientist to prove electronic wire fraud.
Where is Mr. Vito?
Youngkin is up big in betting. The Fat Lady has finished gargling and is about to go onstage.
https://electionbettingodds.com/
He said, “As more of the real details outlined in the basic framework are released, what I see are shell games — budget gimmicks that make the real cost of the so-called $1.75 trillion bill estimated to be almost twice that amount if the full time is run out. If you extended it permanently. And that we haven’t even spoken about.”
Manchin is right about this, and it has been discussed here.
The Dems are trying to put in big entitlements and limit the years they will be funded knowing full well it is pretty much impossible to kill entitlements.
Wes
You seem to be fighting with many tonight on multiple fronts where most disagree with you.
You trying to out-Bitter Bitter or something?
Just because people believe there was fraud in 2020 does not make them ignorant or stoopid.
I think if the data is allowed to be presented, there is more than ample evidence fraud occurred that cost Trump the election.
You disagree and that’s fine but you have not provided any convincing evidence it did not occur either other than your personal take on why Trump lost.
I said I would move on from this argument so I stand by it.
129
Let’s Go Brandon!!!
You still teaching?
You do need to have a basic knowledge of a subject to make an informed analysis of a race, Tg.
Pitch clearly doesn’t, or I wouldn’t be able to mock him for never getting his predictions right.
Youngkin surging at Predicitit too
Youngkin 59 (+4)
McAuliffe 45 (-4)
What Wes won’t tell you is I was one of the first to predict Scott Brown’s win. What he won’t tell you is that while he was soiling his diapers on Election Day in 2016 at around 730 PM, I was one of the first here to say Trump will carry PA and WI. He is nothing but a school yard bully that fancies his knowledge of history. He cherry picks his numbers and tries to bamboozle you with fancy words.
“Massaging “ a few historical facts makes Wes a wise guy.
You’re trying to counter an argument I didn’t make, Tg. I did call Jason stupid–in response to his attacks on me–but if you look up thread to what I actually said about those who believe Biden stole the election, even you should be able to see I made no such blanket argument.
Then again you accused those of us who said Romney didn’t make a racist statement of trying to defend racism, so I’m not surprised at your inability to understand basic English.
We have had 2 A-holes drive by in the last couple days, Brandon and Scooter.
Hope we get a visit from Wvally and Mr. Vito too.
It’s a heavy load to carry when there are only 3 or 4 A-holes around.
“I did call Jason stupid–in response to his attacks on me”
And I am sure you felt bad about it later.
Sure, Pitch.
The guy who said a Romney victory was “baked in the cake” in 2012 (while also claiming Romney would stomp Obama in NC that year) and declared Trump’s victory a guarantee last year said all that.
Come back when you can make believable lies.
Poor Wuss: he can dish them out but can’t handle it when it boomerangs.
Right, Pitch.
As we all know, letting Democrats have the Senate in 2010 really did help Republicans unseat Obama, and Romney’s victory was “baked in the cake.”
Oh, wait.
That didn’t happen.
Can’t really take being wrong even though you always are, can you, pussyboy?
Wuss has run out of words. Open the Pictionary Wuss. Fits your IQ.
Yes, Wes is just angry.
144
Wes, I won’t have time to debate you tonight as I have some errands but you have repeatedly claimed at HHR that Trump did not lose the 2020 election to fraud when you are in the minority in this, not only at HHR, but in the GOP, the party you support, and you provide no convincing evidence against the detailed points others make.
Trying to pull out the Romney discussion is your attempt to deflect losing a debate today on details among many and that is your MO but it doesn’t work because we all just roll our eyes and say “that’s just Wes being Wes again.”
Who else you gonna fight with tonight?
You constantly claim Sewer State voters are stoopid because you don’t like Menendez but then you hypocritically praise Clinton’s presidency who is as morally corrupt as Menendez. So perhaps you’re the one with comprehensive issues when it comes to making comparisons.
Nobody cab outBitter me. GFY.
A guy whose choice of insult is “Wuss” tells me to open a dictionary.
I wish I could laugh harder at you, pussyboy. Have fun continuing in your role as the site’s contrarian indicator.
Oh, boy. Making fun of your lack of knowledge of the subject you’re proudly but erroneously pontificating on is certainly enjoyable.
I’ll continue to amuse myself by watching you lose it when I see the stupidity of your posts.
Please, carry on.
“You still calling it quits with the Isles? I lost track of them, I confess.”
-mnw,
Haven’t had the time, to be honest. That new account we have, combined with established accounts which are all going gangbusters (import freight) and inability to hire competent people has really made my free time just about nonexistent……so the Islanders will have to wait until April May and fingers-crossed June for my attention!
Yikes, Wes and Pitchaboy getting nasty!
Take a chill, gents.
#139. Yep, still teaching. 11th year now.
Actually you’re lying, Tg. I’ve never said people in New Jersey are stupid. They know exactly what they’re getting. They just vote for that gaggle of sleazeballs they put in office anyway. That’s on them.
It has nothing to do with their intelligence but with their determination to be masochistic.
Dan Merica
@merica
· 1h
Terry McAuliffe told CNN after his event in Richmond that “fatigue and exhaustion from Trump” has clearly been an issue for Dems in this race, even if he still believes “people are motivated.”
He added he does wish – “from a political perspective” – that Trump still had Twitter.
It seems even TMac sees Mene Mene Tekel Upharsin on the wall, Tina.
I thought Wes called Tgca pussyboy. That seemed too ironic even for Wes so I went back and reread it. It was directed at Pitch.
How is medicine, Pitch?
Wuss, you arrogant little prick of a schoolyard bully. You have been bitch-slapped for the year. Wonder how everyone else appears stupid to you, Wuss? Maybe you can’t reach above stupidity. Get a life, hippy boy.
Still crying because I call you out for being wrong all the time, I see, Pitch.
Carry on with your little rant. You might get it out of your system eventually. I’m sure someone else will offer you a shoulder to cry on and a diaper change.
Now stealing my words Wuss. Limited indeed is your brain. Diapers are your specialty Wes. You are leaking ignorance, man.
Medicine is great Bitter. Your friend Wuss here is beyond help. Carries a walnut in his cranium.
Ay Dios Mio, Pitch.
I was thinking about stirring the pot some more with you, but I don’t even really need to at this point.
I can just sit back and watch you throw a tantrum and laugh.
Keep going, please.
Watching your meltdown is hilarious.
I found Pitchaboy’s picture online for anyone who wants to see it:
https://www.todaysparent.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/crying-baby-istock660.jpg
Good boy. Using his Pictionary
Honestly, Pitch, I’d love to continue laughing at your puerile posts, but I’m going to run to the store now to get some cigars.
Watching your virtual meltdown in realtime has indeed been amusing, I must admit, but the taste of a Rocky Patel Maduro is much more satisfying.
Please, feel free to continue soiling your diaper while I’m gone. It’ll be good for a few laughs when I check back in tomorrow.
Ladies and Gentlemen we are now officially at WESCON 1. Time to head to the fallout shelters.
We have reached WESCON1.
Pitch and me may not agree on the appropriateness of all Covid treatments, and clearly he has the required God complex necessary to practice as an MD that conflicts with my EXPERTise on all matters except all matters gay to which I defer to LisaB as the expert, but getting all the rudimentary qualifications of Pitch and myself out of the way, I think we agree on the 2020 election fraud concerns.
We are right! Wes is wrong on the 2020 election fraud issue. It’s that simple.
Matter resolved. Next topic…
153
That was a compliment to you Bitter.
You should NEVER be out-Bittered! NEVER!
…and by NEVER, I mean NEVER as commonly understood by all at HHR.
Speaking of making friends. These are 2 Democrats.
Fire from Cori Bush on Joe Manchin: “Joe Manchin does not get to dictate the future of our country. …. Joe Manchin’s opposition to the Build Back Better Act is anti-Black, anti-child, anti-woman, and anti-immigrant.”
Cori sounds like a lovely lady. These lunatics might just drive manchin to the Republican Party.
Cori Bush and the rest of the squad are so far out in front of their skis it is beyond ridiculous. Do they really think their rhetoric plays with anyone outside of the radical left?
175 Hugh
Cori Bush is Maxine Waters, only without all Maxine’s beauty and wit.
I wouldn’t be surprised if either Manchin OR Sinema switched to indie.
Manchin is right– the WORST thing about Reconciliation is the budget gimmickry, designed to hide the true cost.
Above all else, I hate it when Pelosi talks to me as if I were a child, i.e., “The Reconciliation won’t cost anyone a penny, unless they’re a billionaire, and all of these new spending programs will sunset in 3 years, so they won’t cost anything after that.”
CDM – Went to a great restaurant in Pittsburgh on Saturday – Varaggio’s. It is famous for plates signed by celebrities on the wall. We also went to a great diner with my daughter, 3 of her roommates and 2 other parents – Ritter’s Diner. I really like Pittsburgh. Not enough to move there but enough to visit a few times a year.
CDM – Went to a great restaurant in Pittsburgh on Saturday – Veraggio’s. It is famous for plates signed by celebrities on the wall. We also went to a great diner with my daughter, 3 of her roommates and 2 other parents – Ritter’s Diner. I really like Pittsburgh. Not enough to move there but enough to visit a few times a year.
Even if this is a complete fabrication by Parnell’s ex, this isn’t good news for his Senate candidacy: https://www.inquirer.com/politics/pennsylvania/sean-parnell-wife-abuse-choke-senate-hearing-20211101.html
Bitter went to each restaurant twice. Must have really liked it.
Oh sorry, I see they were different restaurants.
Veraggio and Varaggio.
Same owner?
Youngkin has had a new TV ad up in the last few days.
It features a 60-ish life-long Dem woman who explains how she supported and voted for McA when he previously ran, and won, the VA governorship.
But she now explains she is–for the first time ever–voting for a Rep.–Youngkin for governor because times have changed, Youngkin is right on all the issues and Youngkin is the best choice for VA gov.
“If I can do it, so can you.”
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Home run.
Wes, I don’t doubt that you have done a lot of reading about the 1876 presidential election, but you seem to gave forgotten much of what you read, or else read biased accounts.
It should not surprise you that I, too, have read quite a bit about that election; in fact, as an undergrad at a university with a pretty good Government department, I took a course on U.S. Presidential Electoral Politics and wrote my paper on–wait for it–the 1876 presidential election. So, no, I was not under the impression that Samuel James Tildon (after whom future Dodgers and Cubs great Jimmy Sheckard, born in 1878, was named), was a Southerner, or from anywhere other than NY. But it was almost exclusively former Confederates who were voting Democrat in the South in 1876, as blacks (when not prevented from voting) were 100% Republican and carperbaggers were overwhelmingly Republican.
One thing to remember about 1876 was that, in those few Southern states in which Reconstruction Republicans still were in charge of the state government, there was a large turnout from freedmen and other blacks, at least in the areas in which the Democrats and their Klan allies (the KKK being the militant arm of the Democrat Party of the Reconstruction South, or perhaps it would be more correct to say that the Democrat Party in the Reconstruction South being the political arm of the KKK) were ‘t in charge, so election results were nothing like those during later in the 19th century, much less during the 1896-1948 Jim Crow period (which was when SC and MS routinely gave the GOP nominee below 10%).
You wrote that “Most likely at least SC–which until well into the 20th Century routinely gave over 90% of its popular vote to Democrats–would have gone to Tilden without the 1877 agreement,” but that betrays your ignorance regarding a time period in which all five U.S. Representatives from SC were Republican and of which at least two, and as many as four, were black. That entire world ended with the Compromise of 1877, never to be seen again, but during Reconstruction the majority party in SC was the GOP.
You ask “what are the odds that all three of LA, FL and SC actually voted for Hayes?” Well, it’s a lot higher than what your ahistorical perspective would have you assume. Do you know what Grant’s vote percentage was in those three states in 1872? Grant got 55.7% in LA, 53.5% in FL and, believe it ir not, 75.7% in SC. Now, by 1876 the SC Reconstruction government had eliminated most of the voting restrictions on former Confederate soldiers, but SC still was around 59% black (58.6% and 58.9% in the 1870 and 1880 Censuses, respectively), and had blacks been permitted to vote just as whites were it would have been strange had Hayes not won by a solid majority. As it was, the Reconstruction government threw out the results only from the precincts with the most egregious violations (generally black-majority areas in which almost no blacks were permitted to vote),which is why Hayes got 50%-51% and not a much bigger majority in the official count.
1876 was an attempt by the Democrat/KKK coalition to steal the presidential election, and they were successful in the states in which Republicans no longer controlled the state government, but were stopped in LA, FL and SC. The Electoral Commission was entrusted with finding an essential truth in lieu if true facts, and its eight Republican members did so. It’s a shame that the secen Democrat commissioners all voted based on their partisan interests and that the Big Lie that Tilden was the rightful winner still permeates academia to this day.
#183, Cow, that sounds like a great ad. “Home run” indeed.
183 Cow
I saw an earlier one this wee– very similar.
It was a well-groomed, suburban-looking, Caucasian woman, explaining how upset she was about the CRT/bathroom attack issues. She did NOT say she was a Democrat-for-Youngkin, but her anger was genuine!
I thought that Y ad was very effective also. Did you see that one?
If Youngkin wins, his campaign will be studied for years to come as a model of how to do it.
I received an edited version of my novel to review for any changes and see if I approve of the formatting. I don’t expect to sell very many copies but it is cool to pretend I am an author.
Congratulations.
I expect an autographed copy.
Great choice of speakers.
“Terry McAuliffe wraps up his campaign by inviting AFT President Randi Weingarten to speak”
RRH moves VA gov from “Leans DEM” to “Leans R”
Congrats, Bitter! That’s more than Author Mendez can say down in FL (assuming he’s still there).
NT, y’all, and two new polls (haven’t found crosstabs on the Dem leaning poll with TMac at 50-47, though; maybe they got their top lines mixed up).
BASTARDS !!!!
That comment is not directed at anyone in particular.
Since it appears everyone is fighting tonight, I figured I’d get in on the fun.