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    Oz Within 2% Of Fetterman in PA, Vance Leads in Two Polls in OH, Another Poll Has Johnson Up in WI

    We have a new poll from the Trafalgar Group that shows both Republican candidates within 2% of their respective Democratic opponents for the open US Senate and Gubernatorial seats in the state of Pennsylvania.

    US SENATE – PENNSYLVANIA (Trafalgar)
    John Fetterman (D) 48%
    Mehmet Oz (R) 46%

    GOVERNOR – PENNSYLVANIA (Trafalgar)
    Josh Shapiro (D) 47%
    Doug Mastriano (D) 45%

    This poll was done September 13-15 among 1078 likely voters. Meanwhile in Ohio, some good polling news for Republican JD Vance as two new polls, one from Emerson College and one from Civiqs, have him in the lead over Democrat Tim Ryan.

    US SENATE – OHIO (Emerson)
    JD Vance (R) 44%
    Tim Ryan (D) 40%

    US SENATE – OHIO (Civiqs)
    JD Vance (R) 48%
    Tim Ryan (D) 45%

    The Emerson poll was done September 10-13 among 1000 likely voters while the Civiqs poll was done September 10-13 among 780 likely voters. Also from Civiqs is a new poll in the state of Wisconsin that shows Republican Ron Johnson above Democrat Mandela Barnes.

    US SENATE – WISCONSIN (Civiqs)
    Ron Johnson (R-inc) 49%
    Mandela Barnes (D) 48%

    This poll was done September 10-13 among 780 likely voters.

    There is a rumor out there that we might be seeing a long-awaited poll for the gubernatorial race in my home state of Maryland on Monday where we will finally see if the Donald Trump-backed Dan Cox has any prayer to keep the Maryland gubernatorial seat in Republican hands after the immensely popular Republican Larry Hogan leaves office or whether Republicans will have managed to hand this seat back to the Democrats with their selection of Cox as their nominee.

    Posted by Dave at 4:50 pm
    Filed under: General | Comments (60)

    60 Responses to “Oz Within 2% Of Fetterman in PA, Vance Leads in Two Polls in OH, Another Poll Has Johnson Up in WI”

    1. Tina says:

      The oh polls are below Ryan’s claim to imprison and go after MAGA.

    2. Tina says:

      Are before*

    3. jason says:

      ““So the issue is, how does immigration serve the people of the United States and the national interest?” he continued. “We’re not globalists who believe that foreigners have a right to come into our country whenever they want to.””

      -Exactly. jason, Bitterlaw, Robbie, & “CG” hardest hit…..”

      Dammit, why put Bitter in there?

      I deserve all the points for “foreigners have a right to come into our country whenever they want to”

      I guess that is the “I a stupid ass” translation for jason supports legal immigration.

      Btw, has Cotton-Perdue’s 50% cut to legal immigration come up for a vote yet? Since this brilliant piece of legislation was proposed about what, 5 million ILLEGALS have crossed the border?

      WE ARE WINNING!

    4. jason says:

      Ever since NYC claimed WE ARE WINNING on immigration, let’s see, millions of illegals more crossed over. Billions more were spent on benefits of illegals. Hundreds of more cities and even states have become “sanctuaries”. Illegals have got driver’s licenses, free school, free medical care, free housing.

      But hey, let’s focus on legal immigration and let’s pretend WE ARE WINNING.

    5. Gordon Allen says:

      The immensely popular Larry Hogan.As a Democrat in Maryland ( OK a ” Republican ” by some standards here).
      Any questions about our moderator here,and his two sycophants, should be ended as to who he,and they rally are. Hogan makes Charlie Baker look moderate.
      So screaming obvious. are

    6. Wes says:

      Gordon, Baker went to the mat to keep Dems from further gerrymandering the Terrapin State into a glorified banana republic.

      That’s not something a leftist would do.

    7. Bitterlaw says:

      Gordon – Why the F are you here if you hate Dave so much? Dave has been posting polls since before I started here in 2004. Why would a Democrat host this freak show which has become mostly a MAGA echo chamber?

      Jason – You can have the immigration points if I get the sycophant points. Deal?

    8. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      “@RobertCahaly
      Now that the Biden administration has essentially classified “MAGA Republicans” as a threat to democracy marshaling federal law enforcement to focus on them. This move has created a new type of voter that will be even harder to poll or even estimate.

      @RobertCahaly
      In 2020 people who supported Trump or espoused conservative values out of step with “Woke” culture found themselves being “canceled” or “doxed”. This led to “hidden voters” that “most” polling under counted, therefore Trump support in key battleground states exceeded expectations

      @RobertCahaly
      In 2016 Trump supporters were called “Deplorables” and other unflattering names. This was a major contributor to the “shy Trump voter” phenomenon that “most” polling missed which resulted in a major loss in public confidence for polling flowing the election.”

    9. Cash Cow TM says:

      Desantis sending illegals to Martha’s Vineyard and Abbott sending illegals to D.C. in front of VP Kameltoe Harris’ mansion is WONDERFUL!

      Seriously dampens the pro-abortion thunder from the MSM.
      The illegal immigration issue is now front and center. COW thinks THIS will impact various congressional/U.S. Senate races and improve R votes there.

      Plus there is a planned march on Washington D.C. by families who have lost their loved ones due to dying from fent.anyl poising coming from China, going thru Mexico and across the unsecured southern U.S. border.

    10. Phil says:

      Polling is tricky enough. Response rates across the board are only around two percent. Responses are from live calls, automated calls, internet panels, and texts. Response bias has really become a problem. Progressives are more interested in responding than Republicans. Those internet panels are loaded up with leftists who can’t wait to respond. It’s particularly bad in the summer before an election but continues through Election Day. It’s the main reason MSM poll after poll has overestimated Democratic support in election after election. The pollsters make no effort to adjust in order to to correct the problem.

      I think what Cahaly is saying is that the response bias effect is going to be even worse now…..because MAGA people, many of them, don’t want to be outed. They’ve been told what “fascists” and horrible people they are. A lot more of them just aren’t going to answer a poll – but they’ll still vote. Finally, there will some MAGA supporters, after watching Biden through speeches and his Justice Dept with their aggressive actions towards political opponents, are actually afraid to give their opinions and candidate preferences, but agai, they WILL vote.

      The only two national pollsters that try to allow for the problem and try to weight properly are Baris and Trafalgar………..And what do you know – they’ve been the two most reliable posters over the last three cycles.

    11. Tina says:

      Baris is suggesting that Tim Ryan, who stated he wants to kill MAGA, will lose in his own backyard

    12. Phil says:

      He also just said on his podcast moments ago that Oz will win in Pennsylvania. Oz has consolidated his base – maybe wins by 3 or so.

      Says Tim Ryan is a dead duck vs Vance.

    13. Tgca says:

      This is just plain LUNACY! Who would allow this in school around kids?

      It just reinforces my belief that most trans people are mentally ill or degenerates.

      https://citizenfreepress.com/breaking/canadian-transgender-teacher-with-ginormous-prosthetic-clown-boobs/

    14. Tom says:

      Dave W. – To your comment about handing the Maryland governorship to the Democrats. It’s my observation since moving here in 1988, that every few election cycles local democrats elect a republican governor to clean up the mess that the previous democrat governor made. Once the mess is cleaned up, they revert to form and elect another democrat. So I don’t believe it would have mattered who the republicans nominated this time around. While I came to dislike him, RINO Hogan did a good job of cleaning up the mess that O’Malley made, canceling a slew of taxes and fees and correcting the structural deficit, and leaving a $6 billion budget surplus. Now it’s time for the local democrat morons to elect one of their own again.

    15. Wes says:

      Tom, Republicans are 3-5 in gubernatorial races in the Terrapin State since you’ve been there. Their last such victory before Ehrlich broke through the proverbial glass ceiling in 2002 was all the way back in 1966. It truly seems Republicans can win the governorship of that state only under the most extraordinary of circumstances. Even GOP wave years like 1994 and 2010 haven’t produced GOP Chief Executives there–though 2014 actually did.

      Personally I wish a GOP Congress would carve out the MD suburbs plus Baltimore and the VA suburbs and graft them into a state with DC. That would create a monolithically Dem state but would revert VA to a reflexively GOP state and make MD a slightly GOP state trending rightward.

      Unfortunately that won’t happen.

    16. Wes says:

      Happy 4,500,000,001st birthday, Walt.

    17. Tom says:

      Wes – A contributing factor to republican wins in MD was also an extraordinarily bad democrat candidate (Kennedy-Townsend, Brown).

      I have a different bent of redistricting. I think DC should be allowed to vote for senatorial and congressional candidates in MD. I understand that this would kill any republican chances in MD, but MD is a lost cause anyway. But it would drive a stake in the heart of any effort to make DC a state and create two additional democrat senators.

    18. Wes says:

      Well, obviously I prefer my proposal since while creating a Baltimore -to-NoVA state does mean Republicans are doomed in that putative new state, the GOP becomes dominant in VA with Charlottesville and Richmond not having enough votes to give the Left a stable base of support in the Old Dominion. Simultaneously Annapolis becomes the last major bastion of Dem dominance in MD and won’t be able to hold its own for long against the Gold Coast and western part of the state.

      This would give Dems two guaranteed new Senators in my proposed new state but would give Republicans two in VA (barring a George Allen situation) and at least one, if not two, in MD.

    19. Phil says:

      Baris is simultaneously polling Nevada along with Wisconsin. He said Johnson looking very good in Wisconsin. Raw numbers so far showing Johnson well ahead with independents plus his polling is showing the turnout is going to be a bit more Republican than it was in 2020. Also good is that men will actually turn out a point or so more than women – also good for the GOP. The governor’s race is tighter but Johnson may pull that one over the line as well.

      Nevada looking very good for Laxalt. Says the incumbent is “in deep trouble”. Laxalt doing very well with Hispanics and actually slightly ahead in Clark County. That never happens. In Reno they are running about even which is also good for any Republican. Governor’s race is tighter.

      In both states the undecideds are giving Biden about a 30% approval rate so guess how those voters will break. LOL

      He said give it a couple of weeks and watch the MSM polls begin to catch up with his polling results. Says Nate Silver (oh, how Baris hates Nate Silver – calls him a fraud) will hold off longer changing his prognostications.

      He said Republicans will win Pa, Nevada and Wisconsin. Believes unless something happens Walker will win in Georgia. He will be polling Arizona again before the election.

      I know I know. Robbie to come by and scream Baris is a Maga Daddy Trump worshipping fraud. Robbie worships the MSM pollsters who have been beyond pathetic. Thing is, that Maga Daddy Fraud happens to have a spectacular track record over the last three cycles. That’s a fact.

    20. Tina says:

      The Russian hoaxer should join Mitchie. One does it representing thr Drat side, the other allegedly respects our side.

      Stupid to make any predictions until after Labor Day and ignore the same crap media/junk polling firms (faux, Queen prickac, etc.)

    21. Tom says:

      Wes – I don’t favor any plan that would add two additional, guaranteed democrat senate seats, even if it did turn VA red again.

    22. Tom says:

      Wes – I can’t support any plan that would add two additional, guaranteed democrat senate seats. My plan throws MD under the bus, but like I said, MD is a lost cause anyway.

    23. Tom says:

      Sorry for the duplicate response.

    24. Cash Cow TM says:

      Wes says:
      September 18, 2022 at 10:43 am
      Happy 4,500,000,001st birthday, Walt.
      **********************************************
      Walt says thanks!

    25. Tom says:

      25. And you don’t look a day over 4,000,000,000.

    26. Phil says:

      Arizona Trafalgar:

      Aug 27th

      Lake 46.5
      Hobbs 45.8

      September 15th

      Lake 50.0
      Hobbs 45.6

      This one is over, folks. Kari Lake will be the next governor of Arizona….and there isn’t a damned thing Cindy or Megan McCain can do about it. Katie Hobbs is a terrible candidate. She continues to blah blah blah about abortion – an issue only Democrats care about while Lake owns the border and crime issues. Throw in the #1 issue which is inflation – cuts against Democrats and you can say bye bye Katie.

      I suspect Trafalgar should release their Arizona senate results today and based on the governor’s race polling you can expect that Masters has cut into Kelly’s lead.

    27. Dylan says:

      Phil–Does Lake pull Masters over the finish line or will there be enough ticket splits that Kelly gets (puke) a 6 year term?

      It’s amazing to me that “bad candidates” only ever hurt the GOP. McSally was awful and robotic and deserved to lose but she is no worse than Kelly and yet he gets a pass and is “expected” to win. I really wish the GOP would get over its “I was a fighter pilot–vote for me” mentality.

    28. Phil says:

      It’s up now.

      Kelly 46.6
      Masters 45.4

      This is after Kelly has spent fifteen million owning the airways for the last four months and Masters going dark.

      Look out Mitchie….

    29. Wes says:

      Masters has recanted his previous criticism of McConnell and begun kissing Kentucky’s senior Senator’s ass, Phil, now that Masters’ Senate campaign needs money.

      That makes me wonder if, like Bolduc when reversing course on Trump’s stolen election claims, Masters wasn’t just spouting rhetoric he thought would appeal to his base rather than making a genuinely heartfelt statement.

    30. Phil says:

      Probably was just spouting rhetoric, Wes. Primary rhetoric…and it figures just why. McConnell is hated by the base voter. Way underwater on favorability among Republicans in approval numbers according to Baris’ polling. How much? Well, he’s about 10% lower among Republicans than Schumer is among Democrats. I think we know why. Base voters aren’t stupid. Nothing at all out of Mitch’s mouth about unprecedented raid on Trump, FBI confiscating phones of private individuals and congressmen, Biden’s Maga voters are fascists speech – Crickets. Why? Because he’s fine with it. F him.

    31. jan says:

      Keri Lake seems to be cruising towards the governorship. Hopefully, her charisma will become the coattails for the republican slate of candidates — SOS,AG, senate —- to slide into office with her. They all seem like an energetic good group of people.

    32. jan says:

      I have to admit when candidates quickly walk back strong statements, like both Masters and Bolduc recently have done, it makes me question what other pieces of their agenda/philosophy are to be questioned.

    33. Phil says:

      Democrats trying desperately to define Lake. The problem? She was a lead news anchor on Phoenix television for years. People already know her and more importantly, they liked her.

      Bye, Katie.

    34. DW says:

      The left:

      1) 50 illegals die a horrific death after their semi-truck driver uncoupled and drove off leaving them locked and trapped in the trailer.

      Nothing to see here.

      2) 50 illegals arrive to their new home of Martha’s Vineyard ready to start a new life there.

      Bring out the National Guard! Emergency! Get these unwanted people outta here!!!

    35. Cash Cow TM says:

      “Arizona Trafalgar:

      Aug 27th

      Lake 46.5
      Hobbs 45.8

      September 15th

      Lake 50.0
      Hobbs 45.6”
      ************************

      Phht.

      Anyone should be able to beat a cartoon character.

    36. Cash Cow TM says:

      I don’t know anything about BullDock in NH.

    37. Tina says:

      Hobbs is in trouble. She is a loon who refuses to debate

      Did the jebot mention how such a bad candidate Hobbs is?

    38. Phil says:

      She’s way beyond being in trouble, Tina.

      She’s toast.

    39. Tina says:

      Yup she is toast, Phil.

      Lake knows her stuff and can talk

      Hobbs is a vile leftist and a racist.

    40. Gordon Allen says:

      The tide has turned back again( if it ever really left).
      What is the Democrat ” October surprise”?
      It is certain they will have one.

    41. jan says:

      Perhaps one October Surprise could be SCOTUS ruling in
      favor of the Moore vs Harper case, giving state
      Legislatures control over elections.

    42. Dylan says:

      October surprise is Lindsey Graham appearing on all Sunday talk shows touting his new federal ban of abortion bills coupled with a trump indictment coupled with a Covid lockdown due to a new variant

    43. JeffP says:

      You really have to wonder how much of a bloodbath this will be for the Woke Commie Dems. Great news on all fronts polling wise. I am more hopeful regarding the Senate. Would love to see the new America First senators lead in dumping Cocaine Mitch. Don’t think there will be enough though.

    44. Phil says:

      McConnell won’t be dumped. That’s a pipe dream. There are only a handful of Republican Senators that I can think of who would even think about voting for someone else. Plus, who would that someone even be?

      Mitch will serve out his term, retire, and pass it on to his chosen successor John “Crickets” Thune and you’ll get the same DC “Republican leadership” you got from McConnell.

    45. Dylan says:

      As far as the most electable alternative GOP senate leader would be John Kennedy from Louisiana. But my first choice—-well, it’s hard to say—-probably Kennedy!!

    46. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      “Will the polls be wrong – again?
      The errors plaguing recent polls have not been fixed. Should Democrats be worried? “What we saw in 2016 is kind of a ‘shy’ Republican vote,” says Trafalgar Group Sr. Strategist and Pollster Robert Cahaly. “By 2020, it was that Republicans just didn’t want to participate in polls.””

    47. Phil says:

      Will the polls be wrong-again?

      Is the pope Catholic? Right now, the MSM polls are about two weeks behind Trafalgar and Baris in capturing the true state of the races plus there will still be the joke polls like the Quinnipiac poll out of Georgia showing Walker trailing by 6. (LOL) The MSM pollsters will hold out as long as they can showing ridiculous numbers in the Senate races before their numbers start changing. Those polls are paid for by the MSM outlets and are designed to discourage Republican donors and create a gas light narrative that Republicans are in trouble. They are BS.

      Fraud Nate Silver, who isn’t a pollster at all but rather a fraud reader of MSM polls and propagandist for the Democratic Party will continue to have Democratic chances pegged at 72% for the Senate going Democratic. I looked over there tonight and he still projects Fetterman to win 52.0-45.7. Sure thing, Nate.

      In a couple of weeks, you’ll begin to see MSM polls begin to give away some of those big leads they now are now showing for Democratic Senatorial candidates. They’ll have to – Election Day will be right around the corner and they can’t afford to look like idiots in the end. However, even then they’ll over-inflate Democratic support on election day. They always do. Book it.

      Expect Nate, Sabato, the Cook Report, Politico… to continue to keep preaching GOP doom for another month. This is their playbook.

      I look for Republicans to hold all their Senate seats and that includes Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Any polling you see showing Rubio or Budd in trouble just have a good laugh. I expect Democrats to lose their seats in Georgia and Nevada. There is an excellent chance Kelly ends up going down in Arizona as well.

    48. Dylan says:

      Phil Can we hope for a sleeper upset of Murray in Washington? Remember speaker foley lost his house seat In 1994!

    49. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      @Truth_Gazette
      Trump’s last day in office vs. today…

      Gallon of gas under Trump: $2.37
      Gallon of gas under Biden: $3.69

      Inflation rate under Trump: 1.4%
      Inflation rate under Biden: 8.3%

      30-year fixed mortgage under Trump: 2.65%
      30-year fixed mortgage under Biden: 6.28%

    50. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      48. “I look for Republicans to hold all their Senate seats and that includes Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Any polling you see showing Rubio or Budd in trouble just have a good laugh. I expect Democrats to lose their seats in Georgia and Nevada. There is an excellent chance Kelly ends up going down in Arizona as well.”

      Those would be my predictions as well; except not optimistic on Arizona flipping.

    51. Phil says:

      Washington is just too far gone at this point, Dylan. King County loaded with tens of thousands of white snowflakes. Just too much to realistically overcome. Murray will probably win by ten or so even in a red year.

    52. Wes says:

      Foley was a liberal Democrat hailing from aright-trending part of the state. More importantly he sued the voters. That was a combination of factors that doomed him.

      Although Washington has shown modest signs of a glacial GOP trend lately, Murray had too much of a base of support in King County for Smiley to overcome–though Smiley is likely to hold her to single digits. It’s a shame too as Smiley is an exceptional candidate in an unwinnable state for her party.

      If I had to guess I’d say Murray wins by 53/54-47/46. It won’t be a landslide but won’t be close. Even so, I see no path for Smiley to be successful.

    53. Dylan says:

      Well a boy’s gotta dream—-Da Nang Dick, Murray , Elizabeth Warren, Romney , Sasse ——I want them all knocked down like dominos And I guess dreamland will have to do for now ….

    54. Phil says:

      Colorado would be closer to a flip than Washington IMO. Pretty good GOP candidate. Maybe Bennett wins by 6 or 7 if the red team has a good night.

    55. Wes says:

      Dreamland it’ll have to be, Dylan. None of those five is ever likely to face defeat.

      Say hi to Randolph Carter and the Cats of Ulthar for me.

    56. Wes says:

      I actually don’t rule out an upset by O’Dea in Colorado, Phil. I give him at best a 40% chance, but he’s certainly not a guaranteed loser–as evidenced by the fact that Bennet’s supremely negative campaign has failed to knock him out of contention.

      Right now I’d say Bennet probably wins by ~51-48, but a Cory Gardner-style victory of about 2% for O’Dea is not an impossibility, though also not a likelihood.

    57. Phil says:

      An upset in Colorado would be surprising alright. However, a 51-48 loss would be an indication the Republicans were having a very good night nationally.

    58. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      Without mentioning his name, Trey Gowdy and Jennifer Griffin on Fox News ripped to pieces Tucker Carlson’s recent claim that Putin was winning the war in the Ukraine.

      https://video.foxnews.com/v/6312525354112

      Gowdy pointed out “that even last week” a so called military expert was saying the war would be over very soon, and it was pointless for Ukraine to resist. (He was obviously referring to Carlson’s military expert: Douglas MacGregor). Griffin pointed out the Russians are “by no means” winning the fight against the Ukraine — which at this point is probably an understatement.

      Wonder when Carlson will respond, and explain why he was so wrong?

    59. Bitterlaw says:

      New thread. Gordon to bitch and moan in 3…2…1…

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