Three Polls in NH have US Senate Race Within 2%
Here we are on Election Eve Eve and despite the seemingly limited state polling released today, we did get three new polls for the suddenly competitive race in New Hampshire where Republicans are looking to pick off this US Senate seat. The polls come from the University of New Hampshire, Wick and Insider Advantage.
US SENATE – NEW HAMPSHIRE (UNH)
Maggie Hassan (D-inc) 50%
Don Bolduc (R) 48%US SENATE – NEW HAMPSHIRE (Wick)
Maggie Hassan (D-inc) 48%
Don Bolduc (R) 48%US SENATE – NEW HAMPSHIRE (IA)
Maggie Hassan (D-inc) 49%
Don Bolduc (R) 48%
The UNH poll was done November 2-6, the Insider Advantage poll was done November 5th and the Wick poll was done November 2-5, all among likely voters.
Biden Shouts “No More Drilling. There is no more drilling!” at New York Rally”
Clean up on aisle 5!
Bitterlaw says:
November 6, 2022 at 9:22 pm
MD stole the book.”
We can replace it.
I mean the library to store our annals so researchers can dig deep into them.
We could have our best posts inscribed on the walls…and we can record interviews in English and Quechua.
I think a mural of me and Lupita would be a nice touch, just a suggestion of course.
Meldrim says:
November 6, 2022 at 9:26 pm
Hey, Mr. Vito, don’t go. Sock it to me!”
Gayest post of the day. And it is getting late.
Trafalgar:
Vance +10
Ryan spent 55 million trying to convince voters he wasn’t a leftist.
Like I always like to say, Vance fits Ohio like a glove.
Ralston hack calls it for Dem, as usual.
Jon Ralston
@RalstonReports
My predictions are out!
I think @SenCortezMasto
hangs on
What a shameless hack.
Can Lupita pull 3000 pounds of bronze?
https://images.app.goo.gl/Dz7B36KPk2qjFZMKA
If not, we could ask NYC but he won’t give us a discount.
Nice. Will look good right at the entrance.
The title is either “A-hole with llama” or “the llama’s a-hole.” I need to lean Qu’chua.”
Walt update:
Walt and Mrs. Walt went out to dinner 5 p.m. on Sat. night. After they ordered, Walt saw on his phone a reminder that the high school Sports Hall of Fame Banquet was Sat. night at 6.
HE FORGOT!
Walt had written a letter to nominated one of his classmates for the HHS Sports Hall of Fame, who was one of 4 being inducted and Walt was supposed to BE THERE to give the intro speech for him. Walt scrambled, changed clothes and got there in time. Walt did not write his speech, but winged it. It was good.
************************************************
Though other WV counties had done so, our county did not fully integrate until 1962 (and that is when Walt’s Black friend Andy first attended the high school in Walt’s little town). Andy and Walt played 4 years together in little league. Previously, Andy and the 5 other AA kids who resided in Hedgesville (pop. about 320) had to ride a bus to the county seat 9 miles away to go to an all-Black school there. After graduation, Andy had tryouts for four major league teams.
Andy excelled in football, basketball and baseball. Andy was the first AA to graduate from HHS. Andy and Walt were both on the basketball and baseball teams together and both graduated in 1964.
Why on earth are the Democrats allowing Biden to go out on the campaign trail. He is making a fool of himself. If anything he is is increasing the Republican vote
Yeah, did any of you see the clip of Biden acting strange on stage this weekend? Oh man. That was nuts.
The HHS Sports Hall of Fame was first established in 2013 and 76 people have been inducted so far.
***********************************************
Inductees include many people Walt grew up with in his little town of about 300 and knew in some way or other.
The 76 member of the HHS Sports Hall of Fame include:
(* denotes they resided up in our sleepy little small town)
–Gale Catlett* (long time coach at WVU; classmate of Walts sister)
–Walt’s Dad’s business partner* (who donated several hundred thousand dollars to have lights put on a sports field)
–Mark Catlett* State Basketball champs (+4 yrs. basketball at WVU)
–Steve Catlett* State Basketball champs (+4 yrs. basketball at Richmond; plus our county Parks and Rec Director for 39 years and soon to be county commissioner)
–two of Walt’s HS coaches
–Walt’s little league coach
–3 principals of HHS*
–11** other teachers/coaches that Walt taught with
–2 state wrestling champs
–a number of guys and gals who were on various State championship teams/held state records
–15*** that Walt had as students
–1* from class of 1962(Walt was on teams w/him)
–2* from the class of 1963 (Walt was on various teams with them)
–3** from the class of l964 (Walt’s class)
–2** from the class of 1965
–1* Wayne Rise who played baseball at HHS and became baseball coach at Shepherd University for 30-some years.
[*A total of 17 of the 76 inductees actually lived within the 1/2 mile square town limits.]
18 of the 76 inductees were students/teachers/coaches when the total number of students was somewhere between 200 and 350 in a school that included grades 7-12.
HHS was a small “Single A” school.
***********************************************
The rest attended HHS and accomplished great sports things after a new school was built that housed 1200 to 1400 students 9-12 and we became a AAA school.
************************************************
No, Walt is not in the HHS Sports Hall of Fame.
____________________________________________
Even though Walt was the first Bi-State Wrestling Champion from HHS, First HHS wrestler to win Sectional, First to place in Regionals, and was on the championship baseball team in 1964. (4 others from that team are now in the Hall of Fame. Yet WALT was the guy who got the hit that drove in the tying run in bottom in last inning of the sectional championship game [off a pitcher who went to the majors] against much larger “AAA” Martinsburg HS and HHS went on to win that sectional game and then the Regionals, but lost in the Area Championship game and failed to go to State Playoff. the team that defeated HHS in the Area championship game went on to win the State Championship that year). So close…
@maggieNYT
And most likely not a total coincidence but Roger Stone, who’s been most aggressively attacking DeSantis in public, wrote in a Truth Social post several days ago, “
@realDonaldTrump
’s endorsement MADE Ron DeSanctimonius Governor #ingrate.”
@MichaelCBender
NEW: Trump, who has been privately testing DeSantis nicknames for weeks, settled on “DeSantimonious” after the governor’s team released a 96-second black-and-white video that invoked God 10 times.
“@MichaelCBender
Nov 5
Trump is putting tweets of polls on the big screen at his rally, including one of a potential 2024 Republican presidential field in which he pointed out he was far ahead of Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, who he referred to as “Ron De-sanctimonious.””
Couldn’t Trump have at least waited until after Tuesday to attack DeSantis.
To all our NC posters, obviously vote for Tedd Budd for NC-Sen, but equally importantly vote for Richard Dietz and Trey Allen for NCSC. We simply must stop these leftist loons who’ve turned our state into a banana republic.
Nevada has burned me too many times the past few cycles. I don’t trust them. I could see Cortez Masto squeaking by.
Trafalgar has JD Vance(R) +10 for the Ohio Senate seat.
https://twitter.com/RobertCahaly/status/1589411508324569089?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1589411508324569089%7Ctwgr%5Ea5a418c4ff3368fc8b78956467996263d17fb040%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.breitbart.com%2Fpolitics%2F2022%2F11%2F06%2Ftrafalgar-poll-majority-support-republican-j-d-vance-10-points-democrat-tim-ryan%2F
I noticed Trump praised DeSantis as a ” great friend and governor” and urged every one to get out and vote for him Tuesday in his Miami speech.
In an hour long speech in Tampa DeSantis never mentioned Trump.
Me thinks some cooler heads and GOP politicians have been on the phone in the last 24 hours.
I see that Flyboy had himself all excited about Trump again.
Something new, eh?
If Walt graduated from high school in 1964 and played varsity sports through his senior year, then I guess that WV inter-scholastic athletic leagues were more lenient as to over-age players than in other states. Most states won’t let high-schoolers participate in varsity sports past the age of 20, but WV let Walt play varsity at the age of 4,000,000,020.
Cow, to ensure that Walt gets inducted into the WV Sports Hall of Fame, have him add an S to the end of his surname and send in this guy’s stats: https://www.njsportsheroes.com/walterdukesbk.html
The 1964 must have been a refresher There are records Walt graduated from Mesopotamia High in 2899 BC.
I see that Flyboy had himself all excited about Trump again.
Something new, eh?”
Nah, same old tire shtick we see every 2 years.
Republicans are bad, Dems are good, Dems will win.
Walt just creates new birth certificates. He said they are easier to carry around than the clay tablets he had to use long ago.
I see Ralston is saying Cortes Masto and Lombardo will win. In the polls I’ve seen, Sisolak runs better than CCM. I think Ralston is just hoping Dems hold the Senate or limit GOP gains there and is simply predicting accordingly.
Agree, Wes. Lombardo wins for sure and Laxalt has a definite slight edge.
Ralston does what Ralston does.
Final Trafalgar poll in NC has Budd up 51.2 – 44.8.
https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/nc-sen-1106/
Done Wes!!
NCSC Reps, Budd, and Rouzer
Sorry, I meant Lombardo will lose.
Ralston’s prediction write-up was so unhinged I don’t think you can take him seriously.
Nice to see Beasley lose. She did a lot of damage on the state Supreme Court. Good to finally once and for all send her into retirement.
Hello MC
will, wwally, Brandon, Vito, MC, waingro…
Elections bring people out of the woodwork.
Ralston’s prediction write-up was so unhinged I don’t think you can take him seriously.”
He said Rs running down ballot were “dangerous”.
A real non-partisan guy.
And dblaikie of course.
Trafalgar polls showing Vance up 10 and Budd up 7 give you confidence in their polling.
If they wanted to hedge, they could show closer races so they could allege being with the MOE, standard pollster CYA practice.
They are not doing that.
Best of all, for me at least, I don’t have to watch any more Beto commercials after today. Yea! That is, not again until next cycle when the perpetual candidate runs again for something else. He’s “born to run” you know. Legend in his own mind.
Beto
Crist
Abrams
All annoying as hell and all getting the boot despite all their campaign money from the coastal elites. Nice.
Hopefully they will show Masters up today in AZ by a point or two.
Always here Jason, just rarely post!
Don’t be shy, everyone is nice here.
Wait, Vance up 10? Can’t be right. Robbie says Vance doesn’t fit Ohio. Please disregard that poll…..plus his favorite “Republican”, Liz, endorsed Ryan. That in itself was a game changer.
Masto now in territory where they go 3-6:
Incumbent polling – wins/losses going to back to 2010
Below 43: All Lost.
43 – 44.9, 3 Wins and 6 Losses
45 – 46.9, 7 Wins and 3 Losses
47 – 48.9, 13 Wins and 3 Losses
49 or above: All Won.
NV: Cortez-Masto 44.9 (was 45.1)
GA: Warnock 46.8
AZ: Kelly 48.2 (was 48.3)
NH: Hassan 48.4 (was 47.8)
WA: Murray 49.3
CO: Bennet 49.3
WI: Johnson 49.2 (was 49.4)
IL: Duckworth 49.5
OR: Wyden 51.0
FL: Rubio 51.0
CT: Blumenthal 52.7
NY: Schumer 53.5
November 7, 2022 at 8:56 am (H/T: RRH)
Trafalgar joins the chorus showing Budd pulling away in NC, now up 6: https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/nc-sen-1106/
Unfortunately, the Red Wave crashed onto the shore Saturday. We are doomed…. s/
Tim Ryan:
“When I hear people at the national level say things like we have to invest in races where states have an increasing rate of college graduates, that’s where we need to campaign, whoa,” he said. “We’re going to teach the Democratic party that the working-class folks, whether they’re white or black or brown men or women or gay or straight, we are the backbone of this party.”
Don’t worry, Tim, the R country club elites and Never Trumper morons will do everything they can for you to get them back.
Landmark Communications picking up late movement to Walker:
Walker 47
Warnock 46
Prior poll was tied.
Vance wasn’t picked by one of Amoral Scumbag’s “quality candidate committees”, that is why the guy that votes 100% with Biden is better.
#47- DW
Where’s the BOOM!
I thought about it, but this wasn’t quite boomworthy. Lardmark used to be a very left-leaning pollster, then they improved some. And a slightly better poll showing Walker +1 is good, better than tied, but not quite worthy of a boom given Walker is leading in other polls by more.
JD Vance: It was all a mirage, Tim Ryan never had a chance.
https://freebeacon.com/politics/confident-jd-vance-says-tim-ryan-never-had-a-chance/
I finally figured it out. Cow is the Highlander…there can be only one!
Save Our Kids! Suburban women delivering the electoral blowout for Republicans tomorrow.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/columnist/2022/11/07/economy-education-driving-suburban-women-midterms/8256568001/
Like I said on the other thread, tomorrow will be tragic given the results SHOULD be GOP 420 to DEM 15 seats in the US House, and GOP 62 to Dem 38 in the US Senate.
This SHOULD happen given:
1) Dems have doubled the price of gas and food.
2) Dems openly want to ban gasoline and fossil fuels leading to Great Depression II, including elderly who will freeze to death.
3) Dems have wiped out a quarter of everyone’s retirement savings.
4) Dems want to force little children to learn smut and CRT in school.
5) Dems are open to pressuring boys into receiving castration and girls into double-mastectomies.
6) Dems promote policies that encourage crime, and protect criminals.
7) Dems want anybody and everybody to flood across the borders.
8) Dems have weakened our military, turning it into a social experiment laboratory.
But sadly, the BEST the GOP can hope for tomorrow is only 250 house seats and 54 senate seats. Tragic. Absolutely tragic.
Left wing politics is a religion. Asking them to vote against Democrats is like asking you to vote against Jesus.
34
Elections bring people out of the woodwork.
Back in the day, we had a similar saying in the bee-you-tee-ful city of Newark in the Sewer State:
Turning the lights off brings ROACHES out of the woodwork.
That’s why my mom usually left the kitchen light on at night.
I agree Trump is just being Trump with his nicknames and probably should wait until after the election to mock DeSantis if that is his choice.
The mocking is not going to hurt DeSantis in Floreedah but it can deflect the headlines from the worsening economy and everything else that is bad when we want folks to be reminded as much as possible about how horrible the Biden admin has been.
Bitter,
Guess who beat Stroudsburg on Saturday and Won PSCA?
Same team whose QB broke record for most TD passes (149 TDs) in Division II. By the end of game, this QB had 151 TDs. Threw 5 TDs on Saturday.
***********************************************
SHEPHERD UNIVERSITY of SHEPHERDSTOWN, WV
The record for ALL COLLEGE TEAMS incl. division I. is 159.
Shepherd QB Travis Bageant has at least two more games left (barring injury) and ill likely break this record.
By the way, I agree at times DeSantis does get sanctimonious.
He also has a thin skin like Trump and feels he has to attack and hit his opponents when sometimes it’s best to let go.
His overkill on Disney when he should be focusing on expanding the base is an example.
Disney got its comeuppance. Good!
Now DeSantis should focus on outreach to other groups that feel marginalized by Dems, especially if he wants to run for POTUS because right now, he’s done a poor job at that and it’s doubtful DeSantis could pick up any of these states he needs to win the EC – MI, WI, PA.
I know that Democrats won’t vote against their religion of big government. The followers of Jim Jones drank the cool-aid knowing they would die.
It’s still tragic. Both can be true.
Elections bring people out of the woodwork.
Back in the day, we had a similar saying in the bee-you-tee-ful city of Newark in the Sewer State”
I think mostly in NJ it brought people out of the graveyards.
Yeah, I wouldn’t give the Landmark poll a boom either. I suppose one point tick up for Walker is slightly encouraging but that’s about it.
If the Democrats have a favorite Bible verse for election day, it would be John 5:25, only with a few alterations. The original verse reads like this:
“Truly, truly, I say to you, an hour is coming, and is now here, when the dead will hear the voice of the Son of God, and those who hear will live.”
A few textual variations, and the Dems have their verse:
“Truly, truly, I say to you, an hour is coming, and is now here, when the dead will hear the voice of the DNC, and those who hear will vote.”
I was able to register and will vote tomorrow.
The objective is for Bitter and I to vote straight Republican and together count for one vote.
Hope we are successful.
” Expand the base”??
Good lord what do you think DeSantis has bee. Doing for 4 years turning Florida from a swing state to a Red State adding net an additional 600,000 registered voters as compared to the Dems getting an unheard of 50% plus of the Hispanic vote,and 20-25% of the Black vote and probably winning by more votes than any GOP candidate since Reagan,and higher than any other Republican Governor ever.
If that’s not expanding the base,could you explain what you think that entails??
A Republican vote counted as 0.5 seems about right for Pennsylvania.
It will be interesting to see if DeSantis wins the Hispanic vote this year. He lost the demographic by 11 in 2018 and Trump lost by 7 in 2020.
He will win the Hispanic vote 55-45 and I predict he will get up to 20% of the black vote as well.
“doing for 4 years turning Florida from a swing state to a Red State”
The guy who turned FL red is named Donald Trump, who won narrowly in 2016 and convincingly in 2020, and who opened the doors for people like DeSantis to run and win.
I find it hilarious TDS morons like Neville Allen want to give DeSantis all the credit when the fact is DeSantis would not even have been elected Governor if not for Trump. The TDS morons think any good results for the GOP with Hispanics and other minorities happen in a vacuum, just by accident.
I hope DeSantis does crush Crist tomorrow and I hope he does attract a lot of Hispanics and blacks and working class people, that is great for the GOP in the long run. Even though I don’t believe that success in FL among these groups necessarily translates into success in other parts of the country, DeSantis can certainly use it a building block.
By the way, I agree at times DeSantis does get sanctimonious.
He also has a thin skin like Trump and feels he has to attack and hit his opponents when sometimes it’s best to let go.”
Not sure I agree with that. I think DeSantis is right never to leave any attack unchallenged. I think he learned that from Trump and has used it to his advantage. That is why he hired Christina Pushaw, who has done a fabulous job of reacting to all attacks on him.
“Letting go” NEVER served Rs well.
Posted this last night. Looking good for reps in FL so far, even if expected. Numbers as of 11-8-22. Rep early vote has almost matched Dems VBM. This is one way DeSantis has helped FL. I have never seen early vote lines as long as I saw them on Saturday.
Party Tot. –Early Voted– VBM Returned- VBM Outstnd
Rep 2,557,761 1,086,977 942,272 523,428
Dem 2,524,775 598,485 1,105,886 814,354
Oth 1,435,362 391,801 532,142 507,595
Phil says:
November 7, 2022 at 10:55 am
He will win the Hispanic vote 55-45 and I predict he will get up to 20% of the black vote as well.”
He will win the Cuban and Venezuelan vote handily. Also the Brazilian vote, not technically Hispanic but there a lot of them in FL. I doubt he will win the Puerto Rican or Mexican/Central America vote but even some inroads would be positive.
Trump was the catalyst and main reason for our coming tsunami. DeSantis moved us further down the field. Lots of credit to go round.
EARLY EVENING ENTERTAINMENT: LOUISVILLE’S MAYOR RACE
So, it is 6 PM election evening and you are waiting for ‘the game’ to commence. I submit, for your approval, potential early evening entertainment.
At 6 PM EST the polls in most of KY and all of Louisville (Jefferson County).
The Louisville Mayor’s race might be an interesting early evening weathervane?
There are two, reasonable and viable candidates running for an open seat: Greenberg (left/center Dem) and Dieruf (center/right Rep).
As a practical matter Louisville (which equates to all of Jefferson County) is decidedly blue in a decidedly red state.
Examples below:
• Sen. McConnell (R) 2020 won KY 58 – 38 and lost Jeff. County 60 – 38.
• Sen. Paul (R) 2016 won KY 57 – 43 and lost Jeff. County 59 – 41.
• Trump (R) 2020 won KY 62 – 36 and lost Jeff. County 59 – 39.
• Trump ( R) 2016 won KY 62 – 38 and lost Jeff. County 54 – 41.
• Romney (R) 2012 won KY 60 – 38 and lost Jeff. County 55 -44.
• Gov. Bevin (R) 2019 lost KY 49 – 49 but lost Jeff. County 67 – 32.
• Gov. Bevin (R) 2015 won KY 58 -38 and lost Jeff. County 52 – 44.
• Mayor Fischer (D) 2018 won Jeff. County 61 – 36. +25.
• Mayor Fischer (D) 2014 won Jeff. County 69 – 31. +38.
So, the Louisville Mayor seat is hopelessly lost in the Blue mist? Basically ‘Yes’ – but . . . ?
In 2010, the last time there was an open seat for the mayor’s race with two competitive and ‘competent’ candidates, the vote results were a Fischer (D) win 51 – 48. Louisville is certainly bluer today than 12 years ago.
Dieruf (R candidate) is a successful mayor of a small/mid-sized city (Jeffersontown) also within the confines of Jefferson County. His BIG issue is crime – pounding on that point. Greenberg relies on standard ‘blue’ talking points – mostly social policy tweaks to define his crime agenda. There is also an abortion amendment on the statewide docket – it will activate additional voters tilted to the Greenberg camp.
There have been no public polls, but the race is seemingly competitive. In any normal dynamics, one would expect the Dem to win this vote by 20+.
Hold the phone on that one – let us at least count the votes. Do not know if Dieruf can win – as the blue hue may be just too hard to climb.
If this race is 20+ Dem win – well, perhaps some indication that the blue vote base is turning out in a traditional fashion and crime is not the vote changing force one might think (at least in the land of deep Bluesville). If this race is 10 or under – a strong indication crime is a material voting issue. If it is 5 points or fewer – monster voting issue and somehow if it is a margin of error election – wow.
So – there may be nothing to see here. But it will help you pass the 6 PM ¬– 7 PM time slot.
And perhaps you shall be entertained and just enlightened early!
I suspect this race will be closer than most expect – and dare I say, this race just might be close.
Late bunch of senate polls from a leftist polling firm call Research Company
Barnes 47%
Johnson 53%
Fetterman 49%
Oz 48%
Schumer 59%
Pinion 39%
Duckworth 58%
Salvi 40%
Padilla 53%
Meuser 37%
Kelly 51%
Masters 47%
missed one…
Cortez Masto 48%
Laxalt 49%
two more from research co:
Ryan 46%
Vance 54%
Warnock 49%
Walker 49%
and a tenth:
Demings 44%
Rubio 54%
ReadyFirst says:
November 7, 2022 at 11:18 am
Trump was the catalyst and main reason for our coming tsunami. DeSantis moved us further down the field. Lots of credit to go round.”
Should be, but the TDS morons think the only way to promote DeSantis is to attack Trump.
BOOM
GA-SEN: ( Trafalgar)
49.7% HerschelWalker
46.5% ReverendWarnock
2.5% ChaseForLiberty
1.7% Und
Kaboom!
https://twitter.com/RobertCahaly/status/1589657551502991360
Thanks for the Louisville mayor race update, ruru.
One thing is for certain, Amoral Scumbag will be voting for the Democrat.
Appreciate all the posting and data gathering here. This is my favorite political site. Been reading since the polipundit days. I know elections bring out the lurkers, and we appreciate you full timers.
Chase for Liberty advertises himself as “armed gay”.
The Research Company is based in Canada, for what its worth.
#80- DW
In the new Eastern Carolina University Poll of Georgia, Warnock(D) and walker(R) are tied at 49%. In its last poll, Warnock led 49/47.
Kemp(R) is +7 in the Governor’s race.
https://surveyresearch-ecu.reportablenews.com/pr/as-election-nears-georgia-senate-race-tied-49-49-kemp-leads-abrams-by-seven
I think to attract more Latinos DeSantis should do a Beto and start going by Ronaldo.
Ronaldo DeSantis!
That will confuse many as it sounds very Latin too.
Perhaps he can grow a little mustache as well…and do photo ops eating lots of tacos and putting picante sauce on all his food. Images matter!
He should refer to his wife as Caselinda too.
Beto will be sooooo p*ssed!
Been reading since the polipundit days.”
That was my “origin” too. Before Polipundit went to the loony side. Also Little Green Footballs before it went hard left.
The Research Co poll of AZ has Kelly crushing Masters with Independents 59/26.
#84- DW
In 2020, The Research Co. was about 6 pts. more favorable to the Democrats in its polls compared to the actual results.
79. Jason
Trump brought us to the dance. I know it’s politics but a little loyalty is in order. I know he’s not perfect. Love my Governor too! I just hope Trump and DeSantis don’t wind up butting heads as that would be terrible for the party and cause a huge split – exactly what Dems are trying for.
69
Agreed! DeSantis did not change FL to a GOP state. That’s absurd! It was already trending that way and Trump pushed it over further. FL has dominated state-wide offices and the Legislature for nearly 2 decades.
DeSantis is a mini-me of Trump, a younger more articulate version. Trump drove the train. DeSantis hopped on board the train.
Give credit where credits is due.
Very quiet in polling of WA senate and CO senate. Nothing since:
Trafalgar: Murray +1 on 10/28
Insider Adv: Murray +2 on 10/31
Trafalgar: Bennet +2 on 11/1
I remember LGF. Seems so long ago. I discovered all these sites through posts by Jim Geraghty at NRO back when I read them.
I checked to see if Polipundit is still alive… it died.
I checked LGF. Seems moribund. Mostly music related threads
One of the political headlines:
“Homeland Security Cops were Manufacturing Terrorists for Trump”
I support DeSantis but I want to see him expand his connection with voters outside his comfort zone.
He needs to compete in states like PA which is different than Floreedah. Yeah, he can relate to the country club Republicans in Radnor but can he relate to the working class guys in Allentown?
That’s where his focus is needed to win MI, WI, or PA or he’ll never make it to DC.
I kind of view Trump and DeSantis as a Joe Montana/Steve Young combo. Both awesome in their own rights. DeSantis really showed spine and his own courage through Covid, standing up to the mask Nazis. His positions took real courage. His position on monoclonal probably saved my life. DeSantis has helped image FL as haven for freedom.
Ralston hack has 6 models. Laxalt only loses in one, and even then by 1%. Yet he picks that one as the most likely.
You can’t make this sh-t up.
—If both parties were to hold 90 percent of their bases and tie among indies, the Dem candidate would win 48.1-47.1 — 1 percent, Dems.
—If the Repubs hold 5 percent more of their base than Dems and indies are tied, it’s 47.1-46.2, Repubs. — 0.9 percent, Repubs.
—If Repubs win indies by 5, and bases hold, it’s 47.5-47.4, Repubs. — 0.1 percent, Repubs.
–If Repubs hold 5 percent more of their base and win indies by 5, it’s 49.5-45.5, GOP. — 4 percent, Repubs.
—If Repubs win indies by 10, and bases hold, it’s 48.2-46.9, Repubs. — 1.2 percent, Repubs.
—-If Repubs have a 5 percent base advantage and win indies by 10, it’s 49.7-45.3 GOP. — 4.4 percent, Repub
Ralston admits there is not one poll showing Dems winning Indies.
Final economist/you shove generic:
Democrat 48%
Republican 49%
Baris has Laxalt up 19 with Indies for what it is worth.
can we assume that the Republican candidate is leading most of these close Senate races since polling invariably overestimates the Democratic support and democrat turn out is usually less in mid-term years?
(assuming a reasonable polling model)
Silver just upped the GOP’s chances to 56% in the senate.
or is that too rhetoricala question??
So even if Baris is wrong by 10 Laxalt would still win.
Final Insider Advantage poll of GA
Warnock 47%
Walker 49%
Abrams 45%
Kemp 50%
Will, the MSM claims the pollsters have corrected their ways. I am skeptical.
NV has been the one state where Rs have been overestimated, so there is that.
I think any college poll and/or Quinn, PPP, CNN, Fox, WAPO, SUSA, etc poll still have a Dem bias, I don’t think they can help it because their models intrinsically favor the Dems (party ID, etc.)
Data Orbital
Kelly 48%
Masters 47%
Jason, I don’t think the MSM will ever correct their ways, they’re propogandists. Every cycle, Reps outperform polling. Every cycle I think the media will correct weightings based on the most previous presidential turnout. Every cycle it gets worse, to where we are still seeing RV polls this close to election day.
I do think pollsters like Baris, Trafalger etc. are making a difference and embarrassing those that are less than honest. Sunshine is the best disinfectant.
Ready First with some nice content.
good point in 110.
Hey Dave, how about a prediction thread.
DeSantis, IMO, has been a wonderful governor. His nomination of Ladapo for Surgeon General, handling of Ian, redistricting, COVID, etc. have been admirable. However, recently he has acquired handlers and donors that raise red flags for me. Club for Growth, Lincoln Project, Paul Ryan, an assortment of billionaires all adding to his coffers creating questions as to how much are they influencing his thinking.
In many ways DeSantis has benefited from Trump, especially the help and original endorsement for governor that Trump provided. Also, DeSantis’s portrayal of himself seems to be following the Trump playbook – conveying the stance of a “fighter,” going against conventional consensus and establishment power. That’s why it’s confusing as to why he seems to have capitulated to the establishment republicans by leaning on and accepting their support and money.
97
I agree. DeSantis is a fighter, and we need that to an extent with the libs, Big Tech, and the MSM. But one in politics has to pick battles to fight and not fight every little thing.
DeSantis benefits from being in a VERY friendly environment here in Floreedah too because the GOP is pretty much in control of everything and has a GOP infused Supreme Court to back them up.
It will be different if he goes to DC. Trump learned that the hard way. Trump thought he could work with and negotiate in DC like he did in NYC and other places he did business in. Trump was never ideological so in theory, he should have been able to negotiate and compromise if DC was not made up of radical partisans who take no prisoners and will deceive and manipulate at every opportunity.
But Trump is a fighter and fought the good fight. Very few could have endured what he did and still have a successful presidency.
It’s why so many are loyal to Trump. He is viewed as fighting for them.
Damm, Baghdad Bob just got usurped…
Biden Communications Director Kate Bedingfield says “what we’re seeing is enormous popularity for the Biden agenda.”
“There are no American infidels in Baghdad. Never!”
“My feelings, as usual, we will slaughter them all.”
“Our initial assessment is that they will all die.”
“I can say, and I am responsible for what I am saying, that they have started to commit suicide under the walls of Baghdad. We will encourage them to commit more suicides quickly.”
“We have retaken the airport. There are no Americans there. I will take you there and show you. In one hour.”
“The cruise missiles do not frighten anyone. We are catching them like fish in a river. I mean here that over the past two days we managed to shoot down 196 missiles before they hit their target.”
TgCA. What is your bone to pick w DeSantis? You make unsupported blanket statements w zero foundation,like some others here on other topics.
Florida wasn’t that friendly when it went for Obama twice,or in 2016 when Trump won by 1%,or 2018 either. The Democrats had large registration advantages thru 2018.
In 4 years it has been DeSantis that has made this a Red State one where people flee to because of its freedom, prosperity, and safety. It has become under DeSantis THE place to move to,not just visit,and they come here as Republicans unlike in other states.
On most topics you have sound positions,but on this one you’re so off base it makes me wonder if there is a personal issue.
DeSantis said from the start his aim was to make Florida a Red State and he has succeeded in doing so,not Trump,not Rubio,not the fates,but DeSantis.
I can’t think of a single State where a Governor has moved in one term a state so decisively in one direction( GOP) as he has.
Ducey,Sunnunu,Kemp,who?.Can you name one recently?
Really,what is your real issue? You’re not a Trump sychophant where there is an easy answer( I was accused of being one here),so what?
Data for Progress (D) final generic ballot remains unchanged, still R+4
Democrat 48%
Republican 52%
The cake is baked.
Love Baghdad Bob, perfect analogy!
TGCA, somewhat agree, but DeSantis did have leftover Bush thinking people he had to overcome in addition to the left. Additionally, I viewed Rick Scott as keeping the state pink instead of Red. Both would barely won their elections, now DeSantis is about to crush it since he’s a known quantity. I do believe DeSantis had most to do with increasing Rep. voter registration to a 300k lead over Dems (almost a 500k swing) due to his leadership during COVID. Ultimately, a fight between the two minimizes both and the party. I’m tired of fighting each other, it’s the Dems that deserve our attention. A Trump/DeSantis ticket would give us 4 years, then another 8 (DeSantis) of prosperity minimum.
eally,what is your real issue? You’re not a Trump sychophant ”
He can answer for himself.
I am hardly a Trump sycophant, as you have pointed out, and I agree with him.
Failing to give Trump credit for the transformation in FL is blatant ignorance at best, intellectual dishonesty at best.
Again, only TDS morons like you think that in order to promote DeSantis, you have to disparage Trump and his base of voters that DeSantis would certainly need to win a GE.
You have a remarkable talent for always condensing every issue into the most shallow, superficial, and inane perspective. When the socialists take over, you should apply to their propaganda committee.
The cake is baked.
I believe it is as well, DW.
I think I said last night I expected 22 seats in the House and +2 in the Senate. I feel that’s being ultra conservative. If anything, it is too conservative. I also believe there will be very possible surprise in governorships in either NY or Michigan. Republicans flip the governors’ races in Nevada and Wisconsin as well.
Not all pollsters survive. Some perform terribly, and they disappear. Partial list below of those who as far as I know have not released a single matchup poll for the 2022 election. Monmouth University surprised me. They were terrible though.
AtlasIntel
BK Strategies
Braun Research
Cardinal Point Analytics
Chism Strategies
Citizen Data
Climate Nexus
Critical Insights
Garin-Hart-Yang Res. Grp (D)
Gonzales
Harper (R)
HarrisX
Harstad (D)
Hodas & Associates (D)
Keiser Family Foundation
Kiaer Research
Latino Decisions
Monmouth University
Opinium
Spry Strategies (R)
Swayable
Target Point
Targoz Market Research
Tyson Group
Victoria Res. & Consulting (D)
We Ask America
Y2 Analytics
Zia Poll
Zogby
Bennett’s wife says you should defund the police…but quietly.
Dem Senator’s wife: We should defund the police … quietly
“Susan Daggett, an attorney and wife of Colorado Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet, said in a video obtained by Just the News that there is a way to “quietly” defund police by reallocating funds and she hopes President Biden doesn’t run for reelection in 2024. …
Daggett explained that “the most successful efforts in Washington, D.C. are the ones that you never see on the front page of the paper.”
Referring to police reform and reallocating funds to mental health services, Daggett said, “We’re talking about it for half a second, and let the temperatures come down, and quietly allocate some funding to mental health, right?”
She concluded that “there are strategic ways to do it that would be just as effective but, you know, not raise the flag.”
Monmouth has had polls, DW.
here is the unredacted version:
Biden Communications Director Kate Bedingfield says “what we’re seeing is enormous popularity for the Biden agenda WITHIN THE OVAL OFFICE, ONCE WE SEND ALL THE STAFFERS OUT OF THE ROOM!”
I’m Ohio this evening, Trump is going to announce he’s running in 2024.
Oh, and so much for Robbie’s drivel about Kari and Hershel being bad candidates. Governor Lake and Senator Walker. Get used to it.
In Ohio this evening, Trump is going to announce that he’s running in 2024.
BTW ” working class is generally considered to be those who work manually,physically OR in industrial circumstances generally under the direct supervision of others.And often fall within a median of income earners.
As I surmised yesterday,TGCA,Jason et al think only of people wearing hard hats in Allentown as ” working class”.
That is both demonstrably incorrect, but such people are a clear minority these days of the ” working class.
BTW,has anyone met my challenge of coming up with a specific policy,approach or practice of DeSantis that would differentiate his appeal to the ” working class” as properly defined from that of Trump, other than he’s not rich?
124. Jason
I prefer my Sheriff’s way of thinking –
https://www.fox35orlando.com/news/evil-can-never-be-dead-enough-t-shirt-raising-money-for-first-responders
I’m no fan of Ted Cruz, but I appreciate his willingness to be in this video and embrace this particular meme:
https://m.youtube.com/shorts/i_je1uaGrhw
117. Gordy
I have no bone to pick with Ronaldo DeSantis. I support him. I just don’t like this sycophantic adoration that he somehow single-handedly changed Floreedah to a GOP state. I debate others similarly about other GOP politicians.
Also, many people moved to Floreedah to escape other states as they worked remotely. I did so myself, moving back in 2020 before I retired. That had nothing to do with Ronaldo or Floreedah restrictions but with cheaper and better place to live remotely, avoiding state income taxes.
In addition, Ronaldo had lockdowns under COVID too so STOP making it like Floreedah was the only state not to avoid lockdowns. In fact, the state that had the least COVID restriction was South Dakota as Gubbernor Noem frequently reminded us.
Floreedah had partial lockdowns through Sep 2020 issued by DeSantis.
Ronaldo did not single-handedly turn Floreedah red. Most if it was trending that way. His policies helped of course.
Finally, many people moving to Floreedah also were moving to Dem areas like Broward, Palm Beach, and Dade. These were not republicans flooding these areas either.
Here is the data on this pollster Research Company, as to their performance in 2020. I will show senate races only, and the number of point spread they overstated the Democratic candidate against the final results:
NJ Booker +6.7
MN Smith +5.8
MI Peters +13.3
IL Durbin +5.9
On average, they missed in the D direction by +7.9.
I think it would be a mistake for Trump to announce tonight. Sucks the wind out of the midterm. Wait a week and then announce. But he will probably announce tonight–cant resist being a bull in a china store.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball in with their final predictions
Senate 51R-49D (Georgia the only flip)
House 237R-198D
Gov 29D-21R (MA, MD, KS, NV, WI flip)
Don’t vomit…the NYT actually believes Biden wanted to unite the country.
“And so these are frustrating, even perplexing times for Mr. Biden, who according to confidants had expected the fever of polarizing politics to have broken by now and was surprised that it had not. The presidency he envisioned, one where he presided over a moment of reconciliation, is not the presidency he has gotten. He thought that if he could simply govern well, everything would work out, which in hindsight strikes some around him as shockingly naïve if somewhat endearing.
Indeed, Mr. Biden has always connected with audiences not through humor so much as humanity. His speeches are animated by stories of pain — his young wife and daughter killed in a car accident, his own near-death experience with two brain aneurysms, his son Beau’s death. He still summons the name of the nurse who took care of him in the hospital more than three decades ago.”
They forgot about calling everyone who doesn’t agree with him mega maga fascists?
That way, the the GOP wins like everyone thinks it will, he will say it’s because of his announcement.
130. Gordy
WRONG! I never said that!
I said the working class in Floreedah are different than in other states Ronaldo needs to win to win the EC in a presidential race. In Floreedah, the working class are generally more service industry like in tourism because manufacturing is not our core economy.
In other states like MI, WI, and PA working class also include labor areas not typical in Floreedah and those folks are different than many in Floreedah.
STOP cheerleading for Ronaldo! You are doing the same thing people do with Obama. You are greatly exaggerating his accomplishments and putting him on a pedestal.
Why can’t you accept he’s a good gubbernor doing good things and balance that with some things he can improve upon instead of trying to make like he’s turning water into wine for the masses.
Ok. I gotta go and get supplies. We have a hurricane watch. Just got my code red call from the city.
We’re expecting a direct hit between Wed and Thu here in southeast Florida by that Bish Nicole. Probably no more than a Cat 1 if it reaches hurricane status.
I hope the store shelves have not cleared out of tofu yet.
As I surmised yesterday,TGCA,Jason et al think only of people wearing hard hats in Allentown as ” working class”.
Since you are one ignorant moron, you surmised incorrectly as usual.
I never said that. I can see you have a profound disdain for the “hard hats in Allentown”, so inferior compared to your gate community existence in Florida, reading magazines and playing video games as you insult working people.
Actually, I have never defined working class here as not only blue collar, I include other workers and small business owners too, and not only whites, but blacks and Hispanics, and that includes those that live in inner cities, suburbs, exurbs and rural.
So my definition of working class gives Neville Allen even more groups to hate.
Things must be tough for attorneys in Florida….
“Coral Gables attorney and serial bank robber Aaron Honaker has been arrested and charged with trying to rob five banks since Sept. 30.
Honaker stole $1,850 total from two of the five bank robbery attempts in Coral Gables and Aventura, according to a criminal complaint filed Wednesday in Miami federal court.
Honaker earned his juris doctor degree from Wake Forest University Law School on Dec. 10, 2005. State records show he was admitted to the Florida Bar on Jan. 31, 2008, and is a member in good standing, according to ABC affiliate Local10 in Miami.”
Tgca, don’t call him Ronaldo.
Neville Allen might consider it a working class name and disown him.
In 26 hours and 43 minutes, the first polls will close for this year’s midterm.
What’s your final call on the NC House races, Wes?
For North Carolina I am going to say
Budd 53
Beasley 46
+7
NC-13 and NC-1 seem to be the only real question marks, Phil. I say Republicans win NC-13 but lose NC-1. I just don’t see how with two separate husbands having filed domestic battery charges against her in different states years apart, the Republican wins that theoretically somewhat competitive race.
I just don’t see how with two separate husbands”
Two in-house husbands would be worse…
Larry Sabato’s “Crystal Ball” in the last 10 years has been about as accurate as an groundhog predicting the weather. What a joke.
How do I read the election. Well here is my method. Take the Fox Polls and add 5 points to the GOP in each state that they poll. I bet my method is more accurate than Larry’s.
Oh. Democrats also likely win NC-14, the new district. Turnout was actually pretty close in the primaries, but the district is anchored in Charlotte and would have voted for Biden 58-41 had it existed two years ago. Democrats also have a credible candidate in an Afghanistan war vet and current State Senator.
Likewise Republicans have a credible candidate in a business owner and Afghan war vet. With a solid Dem nominee though, I expect NC Dems to win this one, though the General Assembly will likely dismantle the district next year with a friendly NCSC to back them up.
Jason, what’s your prediction for PA-Gov?
Wes – I think Oz wins by 2. Mastriano loses by 6.
That seems pretty reasonable to me, bitter.
Thanks for the response, Bitter.
BOOM!
Murray 47%
Smiley 47%
Moore Information
Since Bitter in effect registered me to vote, I guess he can answer for me.
I think Oz wins 53-47 and Mastriano loses by the same number.
In a sane world Oz would win by 20 and Mastriano by 10.
I don’t think Mastriano would win in any same world or environment, Jason. Politicians have to actually understand their electorate and campaign in a way that appeals to broad swaths of voters to win. There’s no evidence Mastriano has done this.
155—But WA is mail voting so 47/47 may not reflect the % of votes already cast, right? They may largely be comprised of early dem mail ins.
Mastriano would be a much better governor than Shapiro, who is just another far left Dem hack like Wolf. Mastriano might be extreme on abortion but he already stated he would defer to the legislature and it won’t be banning abortion in PA. Most of his agenda would be very pro-business, pro-growth, lower taxes which are much more important than the governor’s personal view on abortion.
So in a sane environment where people voted their interests, Mastriano should win handily.
The Moore info poll is actually a 0.4 lead for Smiley.
Whether Mastriano would be a better Governor is a separate issue from whether he’s a good candidate. Since we’re in the campaign phase of governance, the fact that Mastriano has proved a much more disciplined and effective campaigner than Mastriano has made the difference.
Sometimes in elections, the worse candidate from a governance point of view wins. In this instance, that’s 100% true. Mastriano should have hired competent campaign staff and started tuning in to voters as Oz did. He didn’t; therefore he’s going to lose.
That’s really how that works.
WA is such a long shot.
One would hope that the closeness of this race will serve as a warning to the Dems about how unpopular their policies are but they live in such a bubble that they will never admit it.
The Emperor has no clothes……
161 should say”…that fact that Shapiro has proved…”
Will, that will never happen.
Chuck U Schumer could win this year by ONE vote, and he would say that its a mandate that YOU want HIM to cram CRT down the throats of your kids at school, that YOU want smut in the elementary school library, and that you want school counsellors to go behind your back to convince your boy to receive castration and your girl to receive a double-mastectomy.
Its a mandate!
One vote.
Mastriano emerged from a contentious primary with little money. His strategy has been to try to maximize the rural/small county/small town vote.
Despite having large population centers, PA is 39% rural, 44% suburban and 17% urban as of 2020. Trump won the rural vote by 24 points, lost the urban vote by 34, and lost the suburban vote by 9. In the end he lost by about a point.
If Mastriano could get 65% of the rural vote and hold Shapiro to the same percentages Trump got in the suburbs and urban areas he could win. I think he will actually do that, the problem is he is probably lagging Trump in both suburbs and urban areas.
I don’t actually fault his strategy, I think it was the best he could with the resources he had.
Whether Mastriano would be a better Governor is a separate issue from whether he’s a good candidate.”
Very true. I didn’t support him in the primary.
My point is that he would be a better governor than Shapiro.
Well, Jason, if a candidate’s primary source of funding during a primary is his expected general election opponent and said candidate has to consequently adopt a dubious electoral strategy that clearly isn’t bearing fruit, then maybe that person should rethink why he’s running.
Even Data for Progress (D) cannot provide any succor to Beasley in NC:
Beasley 45%
Budd 51%
Saying I think Mastriano’s overall strategy was ok doesn’t mean I disagree that he could have run a better campaign.
From what Bitter says, he was absent from the suburbs. I saw plenty of campaigning here but even with a strategy to maximize the rural vote, he still needed 40%+ of the suburban vote (Trump got 45). And the same 32% of the urban vote Trump got.
Wes, did I miss your final NC senate prediction?
I went with Budd +7
Data for Progress (D) can however provide a little succor for Hassan:
Hassan 50%
Bolduc 47%
then maybe that person should rethink why he’s running.”
Maybe he thought his big primary win (and it was big) would bring in some money/donors.
I hadn’t made one, DW, but that’s pretty much where I am.
You know the saying about assumptions, Jason. Logic should have told him he’d have to prove himself–as admittedly Don Bolduc has done, at least to a degree, in NH–when Shapiro was his biggest financial backer during the primary.
And let’s face it the GOP governor’s association probably did not prioritize Mastriano.
Shapiro will be another disaster for PA like Wolf was.
Pretty depressing.
And btw, Trump can’t be blamed for Mastriano, he would have won anyway, he is just too popular in rural PA.
Oz won the primary due to Trump, but not Mastriano.
The RGA prioritizes races it thinks are or will become competitive. Mastriano has never shown any viability against Shapiro. Even Rich Baris couldn’t get him closer than 4 down. With more attractive possibilities in other states, Mastriano became an afterthought.
Could Barletta have beaten Mastriano if Trump had endorsed him instead.
Don’t think so
Mastriano 591k
Barletta 273k
McSwain 212k
White 129k
Could Barletta have won if Trump endorsed him and McSwain and White dropped out?
Possibly.
We’re past the point of worrying about whether Trump is or isn’t responsible for Mastriano, Jason. The fact is that because Mastriano was a poor candidate all along–as evidenced by Shapiro’s primary spending on his behalf–PA-Gov was always going to be a Likely D affair upon his nomination.
This isn’t about Trump. It’s about Mastriano’s incapacity to connect with enough voters to run a competitive campaign in the general.
BOOM!!!
Data for Progress (D)
Barnes 47%
Johnson 53%
Of course Baris effectively told us the state of Mastriano’s campaign when Baris literally blamed the voters for tomorrow’s expected outcome.
That’s basically a slap in the face by a partisan fanboy upset because his candidate’s losing.
I guess depopulating prisons must not be all that sexy after all, DW.
they also have Michaels up two over Evers for WI Gov
Ron Johnson is a political wunderkind. He had no political experience in 2010 when he beat a three-term incumbent who had last won by 12% in a state leaning against the GOP. Six years later, despite trailing in virtually every poll and being outspent, he beat his predecessor again. Now he’s going to beat an up-and-coming lol by a probably not close margin.
Now Johnson needs to start grooming a successor and working on recruiting someone to challenge his moonbat fellow Senator.
Silverhack has Smiley at 8%, O’Dea at 8%, and Bolduc at 28%.
Bolduc should be at least 45% given the polls, and the other two at least 20%.
Oh, and he has Masters at only 34%.
He did give up on Warnock, now has Walker 59/41.
Predictions for WA-Sen?
I can’t bring myself to think Smiley wins, so I say Murray wins 51.5-48.5.
Up-and-coming lol?
Well, Barnes is good for an lol.
Up-and-coming pol. Autocorrect is weird.
Wes that’s really a tough call. We can so badly want Smiley to win, but that Moore information poll was paid for by Smiley…so all the caveats apply about it being an R internal. Your prediction is probably about right, though I might be tempted to say its a heartbreaker, falling maybe 4000 votes short.
BOOM!!! Given the pollster and the margins:
FINAL POLL: @DataProgress (D)
2022 #FLSen General Election
(R)* Rubio 55% (+12)
(D) Demings 43%
(L) Misigoy 1%
2022 #FLGov General Election
(R)* DeSantis 57% (+15)
(D) Crist 42%
(L) Roos 1%
(I) Gimenez 1%
It’s about Mastriano’s incapacity to connect with enough voters to run a competitive campaign in the general.”
Not sure about that.
Mastriano was vastly outspent. You can make the case that was his fault.
I would agree that he is not the best candidate Rs could have fielded, in fact of the 4 contenders, he was the worst in my view.
But I don’t agree he is a “poor candidate” because his opponent is worse. Shapiro is a truly horrible candidate, a turd wrapped up in a gift box with a ribbon around it.
In the end, even the R’s worse candidate is better than Shapiro.
BOOM
Data for progress (D) NEVADA
Cortez Masto 47%
Laxalt 49%
Prior poll was Laxalt by 1
I don’t think Smiley wins. WA is just too far gone.
OR gov maybe.
So many booms
You’re confusing officeholder with candidate, Jason. Shapiro will be a worse Governor than Mastriano would have been. However, Shapiro is clearly the much better candidate–as in person seeking an office–of the two, as evidenced by his consistent and inflexible leads during the entire general election season.
194, sure, and its starting to sound like Tchaikovsky’s 1812 Overture.
du-DAH-da-da-da-DAH-da-dahh…BOOM
BOOM
BOOM
Toupee Charlie updated his House projections. Near as I can tell, one seat moved from Lean Dem to Tossup.
212 Lean R or better
36 Tossups
187 Lean D or better
Keeping in mind that over the last 4 federal elections, Republicans have won 100% of the Lean R or better seats, 72% of the tossup seats, and a handful of the Lean D or better seats.
Touching that you remembered to call him Toupee Charlie. It was years ago I had given Cook, Sabato and Rothenburg the moniker the Three Toupees.
Mastriano would be a much better Governor than Shapiro. He won’t be Governor. Sadly, both can be true.
I don’t know if Mastriano had TV ads in PA. Maybe there were some in the state outside of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. Mastriano did start running radio ads here in the last few weeks.
In contrast, Oz is able to financially go ad for ad against Fetterman. The new ad for Fetterman shows his high school football picture and says he will be the offensive lineman for PA. Maybe that plays really well in Western PA even though he played for a private school.
Johnson up 3.3 in the RCP average, and hasn’t trailed in ANY poll since 9/15. But they say its ranked a TOSSUP.
Come on RCP, what do you have Lean R for if you ain’t gonna use it?
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/wi/wisconsin_senate_johnson_vs_barnes-7758.html
BOOM!
Silver just jumped the GOP’s chances in the senate to 58%!
Probably Data for progress polls.
BOOM!!
Data for Progress (D) Ohio:
Vance 55-45
DeWine 62-38
RRH people debating if the Latino surge is regional or non-uniform.
Come on people…late surging to the GOP happening right in front of our eyes in:
FLORIDA
OHIO
WISCONSIN
NEVADA
NORTH CAROLINA
WASHINGTON
Why these places and not others?
Data for progress
Colorado
Bennet51%
O’Dea 44%
Actually closer than their prior poll, but no BOOM here.
On September 20, 538 gave Republicans a 29% chance of winning the Senate. Double that now.
NEW:
@atlas_intel
Biden Job Approval
Approve 36%
Disapprove 53%
2022 Generic Congressional Ballot
Republicans 50%
Democrats 47%
Suburban: 49/42 (R+7)
BOOM!!!!
Masters 50
Kelly 49
Data for Progress
Lots of Mastriano discussions on this thread. He has been an intriguing candidate – super unpolished, very principled, connects well in a folksy way with people, very optimistic about his candidacy – basically a good man and probably a bad politician. The odds are against him winning. However, somehow I think he will surprise people and pull a win off. If he does manage such a feat I think he will be a strong, effective and ethical governor.
As for the overall pick-ups in Congressional races, my prediction is that republicans end up with +50 gain in the House, and a +5 in the senate. I also predict NE, NY, WI, AZ, OR and fingers-crossed PA come out of the midterms with R governors.
HEADLINES TODAY
MSN
31 TOTAL HEALDINES
12–Anti Trump, anti GOP
(and, of course, 0 anti Biden, anti Dem headlines)
________________________
AOL
46 TOTAL HEADLINES
8 anti Trump, anti GOP
Cow has been peering int the Cow Crystal Ball.
************************************************
Cow sees that the election will trigger:
1. a November hurricane that will hit FL, GA, and NC because they elected Republicans
2. there will be a blood moon later on tonight symbolizing…something.
3. lots of pollsters trying to explain why their polls were so wrong.
4. some protests in the streets…by left wing lunatics.
Senate 55 or higher house 250 plus
Mediaite
@Mediaite
Trump’s Lawyer Warns DeSantis Against ‘Delusion’ He Can Take MAGA from Former President: ‘Career Suicide’
– This is the party Jason fraud wants. One where fear, intimidation, and threats are used to keep people from challenging the twice impeached idiot.
I am thinking tomorrow will be a bloodbath. With that said several surprises will begin to emerge from east to west.
Potential Surprise List
Bolduc
Zeldin
Dixon
Michaels
Jenson
Ronchetti
Masters
Drazen
Smiley
Senate 54/ House 250
Is Dave going to give us a predictions thread? If he does, I’ll repost mine there, but I wanted to make sure to post them somewhere before Election Day:
* Senate 54R, 46D (net +4R); GOP holds everywhere (including PA) and picks up NV, GA, AZ and NH, but falls short in WA, CO and CT
* Governorships 33R, 17D (net +5R); GOP loses MA and MD but holds everywhere else (including AZ) and picks up WI, KS, MI, NV, OR, NM and NY, but falls short in ME, MN and PA
* House 248R, 187D (net +35R)
Senate R 53 D47
House R 239 D196
Governor R 30 D 20
Well I saw reports DJT will announce 2024 tonight. We’ll probably too late to rally the Woke Commie Base.
Trump always has to be the story. Always.
Finally saw a Mastriano ad. Aired on ESPN.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11400595/Why-believe-Donald-Trump-regain-White-House.html
Interesting read from a Trump-hater who thinks Trump could win in 2024. He said Biden in manifestly senile and Harris could not win the White House even if only her staff voted.
BOOM!
Fetterman 46%
Oz 49%
Patriot Polling, 864 Registered voters
Robbie – will you take tomorrow off from your TDS research to vote, or will you look to get OT pay from the Biden Administration?
CCXXII
U.S. SENATE
NH – R Buldoc by 2 (“$chumer’s $$$ Choice!”)
CT – D Bloomenthal by 5 (busted the Levy)
PA – R Oz by 3 [be a crime if Fetterthing wins]
NC – R “this Budd’s for you!” by 7
GA – R (Tennessee) Walker by 2 over Warlock
FL – R Rubio by 8 (goodbye, Val!)
OH – R Vance (“Ryan Left Cryin'”)
WI – R “Big” Johnson by 6
CO – D Bennett by 4
NV – R Laxalt by 2
AZ – R Kelly by 1 or 2 (not THAT R Kelly)
WA – D Ann Murray by 1 or less (people like it that Ann Murray in a gifted singer “Spread your tiny wings and fly away”…[Snowbird])
_________________________________________________
HOUSE
236 R
199 D (“One ninety nine Nuts on the wall, 1-9-9; take one down and spin it around 1 9 8 Nuts on the wall…”)
[but Cow hopes it is much bigger]
——————————————-
In my area:
WV CD1 and CD2 both Rs (Miller and Mooney) win big
MD CD6 (R) Neil Parrott wins
VA CD6 (R) Ben Cline wins
VA CD7 (D) Jennifer Wexton wins
VA CD10 (D) Abigail Spanberger wins
_________________________________________________
GOVERNATORS
AZ – R Lake (will wash over the Hobb(it) by 5)
NV – R Leonardo Lombardo by 3
MI – D Whitmer by 1.5 sadly (Dixon campaign chant: “We Like Dix-On”)
WI – R Michels “will row the boat ashore” by 3
OR – R Drazen by 2 (“Drazen is Brazen!”)
OK – R Stitt by 3 (“Kick the Stitt out of Your opponent!”)
FL – R Desantis by 12 (goodbye, Charlie)
GA – R Kemp by 8 (buries the loon)
NY – Hochul by 5, unfortunately
TX – R Abbott by 12 (“Abbott Buries Beto”)
Cow – AZ??
D Kelly or R Masters?
House R 245
Senate R 55
Governor’s R 32
I doubt Trump would announce tonight. The announcement could be overshadowed by the election tomorrow. It would be bad timing.
Trump should wait until the day after the election. Claim he was the reason so many Republicans won, and build on the Republican momentum. He appears to have a legitimate fear he will be left in the shadows, which may happen — particularly if DeSantis gets a lot of attention.
Trump age may become a factor. People are clearly focused on Biden’s age related issues, and may not want another elderly president. If Trump has any sort of health issue in the next two years, his candidacy may be sunk — his weight is a concern in this regard.
I actually thought trump looked a little slimmer tonite at least off his high weight. And he is truly indefatigable! Republicans take both chambers and they darn well better push for a cognitive test on Biden
BOOM!
Smiley has taken the lead in Washington state by .04 over Murray
47.7
47.0
https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000184-4ffb-d3eb-adef-7ffb59730000
“NYCmike says:
November 7, 2022 at 9:50 pm
Cow – AZ??
D Kelly or R Masters?”
OOPS!
(R)Masters bates…err…BEATS Kelly by 2
I am pulling for Smiley.
But Cow thinks they do a lot of early mail in votes in Washington State.
That will hurt Smiley in the (rear)end.
Bitter said Walt probably had a lot of different birth certificates and HS diplomas.
Yup.
Had a big chest full of them.
Some of them chiseled in stone.
227. I actually thought trump looked a little slimmer tonite at least off his high weight.
I hope your right. Also Trump appears to have excellent doctors, who likely are monitoring him closely.
538 conveniently moves control of the senate to 59/41 and Oz to 57/43.
You can’t make this sh-t up.
The night before the election.
On the eve of a very important election, Amoral Scumbag trolls by to attack Trump.
What a despicable excuse for a human being.
Trump endorsed Hee Haw at tonites rally.
They appear to have made peace.
Good move imo.
Also, trump will announce on 11/15, Mar A Lago.
Real A-team Beasley has there….I thought the was supposed to be a pick-up for Dems….
“Sen. Tim Kaine (D., Va.), former senator Doug Jones (D., Ala.), and former Navy secretary Ray Mabus joined Beasley for a final campaign push in the Raleigh suburbs”
Also Trump appears to have excellent doctors, who likely are monitoring him closely.”
Not sure Trump listens to doctors.
BOOM
ARIZONA SENATE FINAL POLLING
Trafalgar
(R) Blake Masters: 48.2%
(D) Mark Kelly: 46.7%
Ok, here we go
House +35
Senate +4
Bonus prediction: Lake, Zeldin and Dixon win.
It will be best if Trump announces BEFORE he is indicted….and yes, he will be indicted. That’s how Democrats roll. Once Trump announces and is officially a candidate it makes the Justice Dept look just that much more political indicting their chief rival – smacks of banana republic style. Indicting a former President on a BS charge looks bad enough….but criminalizing your political opponent? Very bad look.
Hawley and Scmitt refuse to endorse Biden’s Beotch as majority leader.
https://research.rabobank.com/markets/en/detail/publication-detail.html?id=304310
Unbelievable numbers for House and Senate wins – over 70 for the House and 11 for the Senate!
Maybe Schmitt should wait until tomorrow when he is actually elected.
Unbelievable is the right word.
Final
@trafalgar_group
#MIGov #Poll (11/5-7) shows challenger #Dixon with a razor thin (0.3%) lead heading into Election Day. One to watch. #mipol
48.5%
@TudorDixon
48.2%
@gretchenwhitmer
0.6%
@LPMary4Gov
0.7% Other
2.0% Und
Sticking with my prediction from 3 weeks ago:
55 Senators
245 House
26-10 Governor races (more likely 23-13)
House: R240
Senate: R54
Governors: R31
Let’s just say I hope Walker clobbers Warnock today:
https://freebeacon.com/democrats/burtal-murders-rotting-corpses-broken-elevators-inside-the-apartments-owned-by-raphael-warnocks-church/
I really wonder what might happen to our country if there are any major issues of election integrity like 2020. The MSM and Faux News cover up won’t work when or if it happens again.
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/08/election-results-slow-00065543
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/midterms-election-night-election-week/story?id=92660245
Any word on the early exits?
Standing in line. Polls open in 1 minute. Show time!
New thread.