2022 Election Morning Thread

    It’s admittedly been a slow year for me on this site. The passion is just not there this time around. I’ll start today’s Election Day with my predictions for this Election Cycle after tonight:

    US Senate – Democrats (and their leaning Independents) manage to stay on 50 seats, winning in Pennsylvania but losing in Nevada.

    US House – Republicans take control with 229 seats when all the counting is done.

    Governor of Maryland – Dan Cox gets maximum of 34%

    Posted by Dave at 7:00 am
    Filed under: General | Comments (393)

    393 Responses to “2022 Election Morning Thread”

    1. Wes says:

      Dave gives a pretty lethargic prediction for today. No surprise for a Republican living in the People’s Democratic Republic of Maryland.

    2. EML says:

      Senate: 54R-46D
      House: 245R-190D
      Gov: 32R-18D

    3. Skippy says:

      Good God Almighty the first numbers have come on on Election Day votes per party registration in Florida and it’s an extreme bloodbath….holy smokes!

    4. JeffP says:

      I am basing my predictions on a red bloodbath and only limited cheating in PA, MI, NV, AZ, WI, NY.

      House 250/ Senate 54 / Governors 33/17

    5. Skippy says:

      Senate GOP: 56
      House GOP: 240

    6. Skippy says:

      John Couvillon
      I picked the 8 most heavily Democratic counties. Here’s HOW heavily:

      MAIL: 51-27% D/R
      IP: 40-37% R/D
      EDAY: 49-28% R/D

      And yes, this is a 15 minute report. Things can and will change. Still, this is DATA.

    7. jason says:

      House R +35
      Senate R +4

      Bonus pick: Lake, Dixon and Zeldin win

    8. Todd McCain says:

      Hey Yall!

      245 in the House

      53 in the Senate

      GOP! GOP!

    9. Skippy says:

      John Couvillon
      This is an unrepresentative sample of those 24 counties. “Unrepresentative” in that while the statewide ABS+IP #s were +6R, these 24 counties are +1D. Here’s the sample data:

      MAIL: 46-33% D/R
      IP: 46-34% R/D
      EDAY: 56-23% R/D

      IOW, I’ve long said VBM is most Dem, EDay is most Rep


    10. Todd McCain says:

      9. If that is replicating nationwide, the Dems are about to eat a massive sh*t sandwich.

    11. Phil says:

      After looking at the final polls last night, I’ll go with the following for my final:

      Senate: 52-48
      House: 237-198
      Governors: Republicans flip Wisconsin, Nevada, Kansas with a surprise being one of Michigan or NY.

      I’d say 53 Senators but I don’t have the confidence in the vote count integrity in Pennsylvania to make that call. I hope Oz can win by more than the margin of fraud.

      What’s sad is the count in Arizona. Election officials in Arizona say it will take at least a week to count all the ballots in Arizona – up to 10 days in Maricopa County. That’s a complete disgrace.

    12. Meldrim says:

      Sticking to my predictions from two weeks ago:

      * Senate 54R, 46D (net +4R); GOP holds everywhere (including PA) and picks up NV, GA, AZ and NH, but falls short in WA, CO and CT

      * Governorships 33R, 17D (net +5R); GOP loses MA and MD but holds everywhere else (including AZ) and picks up WI, KS, MI, NV, OR, NM and NY, but falls short in ME, MN and PA

      * House 248R, 187D (net +35R)

    13. Tgca says:

      Fox is calling AZ for Kelly and Hobbs. Official results to come sometime before Thanksgiving.

    14. Gordon Allen says:

      They counted faster in the 1930’s and 40’s than the US does today.
      Florida will have it’s count by midnight or sooner.
      It can be done, and should be. That it isn’t is the express design and “fault” of the political ‘leadership in the States.

    15. jason says:

      Meldrim copied my +35 R in the House?


    16. Phil says:

      Florida will have all votes in by midnight – all 11 or 12 million.

    17. jason says:

      I hope Skippy will finally be right for once.

      He is due. At some point you got go with the law of averages.

    18. jason says:

      Hey Todd, good to see you.

    19. EML says:

      Florida is a fast counting state. They will be the first one done. Nearly 5 million people have voted early, and those early votes are required to be reported within 30 minutes of poll closing time (7PM).

    20. DW says:


      Final Trafalger:

      Laxalt 50
      Cortez Masto 45

    21. DW says:


      Final Trafalgar – Michigan

      Whitmer 48
      Dixon 49

    22. DW says:


      Final Trafalgar – Arizona

      Masters 48
      Kelly 47

    23. Sheeple,Jr. says:

      If Pasco County, FL is indicative of how the vote is going in The Sunshine State, the Republicans are killing it! Even today at 8:10 a.m., Republican ballots were 3:1 over Democrats on Election Day.

    24. DW says:



      Targoz Market Research

      Oz 51
      Fetterwoman 46

    25. jaichind says:

      Senate: 53R-47D
      House: 245R-190D
      Gov: 29R-21D

    26. Tom says:

      So if I’m reading this correctly, this is good news for the NY GOP in general, and Lee Zeldin in particular. What say you HHR experts?
      From RRH:

      “Early Voting- New York: Our own CINYC was tracking the early in person vote in NYC. The final cumulative NYS early vote was 1,178,674 which is about ~47% of 2020 early vote total. The Mid-Hudson & Long Island had the largest turnout compared to their 2020 totals with both regions being at about 64% their 2020 margins. New York City significantly lagged at 38.66% their 2020 early vote totals and The Bronx was absolutely anemic. New York also now has 320,849 returned absentees, which break 61.4 D/22.1 R/16.5% Other.”

    27. DW says:



      Targoz Market Research

      Walker 49
      Warnock 47

    28. Meldrim says:

      Jason, I picked 54 Senate Republicans (+4), 33 GOP governors (+5) and 248 House Republicans (+35) in a pool two weeks ago, and posted it on HHR last night. In fact, I posted on HHR last week, in response to your comment from seven minutes earlier, that my predictions from two weeks before the election were 54 R senators, 33 R governors and 248 R representatives:

      “190. Meldrim says:
      November 3, 2022 at 4:46 pm
      “To get to 54 Rs have to win all five of Laxalt, Oz, Walker, Masters and Bolduc.”

      Yup. And that was my exact prediction in a pool that I filled out 9 days ago (where I predicted that Smiley and O’Dea would fall short). I also predicted 33 R governorships and 248 Rs in the House.”

      Glad to see you come around to my way of thinking, Jason. Now go and vote for Oz and Mastriano instead of writing in Donald Duck and Lupita Llama.

    29. DW says:



      Targoz Market Research

      Abrams 42%
      Kemp 56%

    30. DW says:



      Targoz Market Research

      Whaley 32%
      DeWine 62%

    31. gameboy says:

      Prediction for the real numbers:

      Senate: 55-45
      House: 250-185
      Gov: 31-19

      Predictions accounting for the cheating in certain states (you know who they are)

      Senate: 52-48
      House: 240-195
      Gov: 29-21

      There should be significant pick ups in the state houses as well.

    32. Bitterlaw says:

      Senate – 52 R
      House – 235 R
      Gov. – 32 R

      If I am wrong, put it on my tab.

    33. Bitterlaw says:

      Bonus pick – Oz wins.

    34. Meldrim says:

      DW, I wish that Targoz Market Research hadn’t just released a poll showing Kemp up by 14%, since their simultaneous poll of the senate race has Walker up by only 2%. If Walker is actually running that far behind Kemp, then I don’t think that he could get to 50% and avoid a runoff.

    35. Todd McCain says:

      I find it hilarious that Dems are praying for rain/snow in So Cal and Nevada today to dampen GOP turnout……I thought they weren’t about voter suppression??

    36. gameboy says:


      I expect Oz should win by 5. It’s unfortunate they will keep creating and counting ballots through the end of the week until the brain dead opponent is up by one vote and declare victory. You should know thew drill being in PA.

    37. Cash Cow TM says:


      Here is YOUR chance to tell Biden and the rest of the cork-soaking, mortar-fracking, sons-of-beeches who worship at the altar of man-made global warming and PUSH FEAR AND NONSENSE and who ABHOR the constitution and rule of law, secure borders, freedom, free enterprise, free and fair election processes, capitalism, parents’ rights in schools, common sense, patriotism, COWS and anything that is good in America that THEY ARE FULL OF POOP AND ON THE WRONG TRACK ON EVERY ISSUE!
      This election day is a wonderful opportunity to take a two-by-four up beside the heads of the off-the-rails Ds and give them a wakeup call.

      If you want Ds to listen to, you got to get their attention and you do that by HAMMERING THEM (at the ballot box–not like Depape’s hammer).


    38. DW says:

      Meldrin, I doubt Kemp is ahead 14, but neither is Walker up only 2.

    39. Transparent Dem Troll says:

      Cow, All our internal D polling shows that today is the day where it seems Republicans are poised to Kick Balls in the Democrats–borrowing the quip from Fetterman

    40. Wes says:

      I just came back from voting. I was in and out in 10 minutes. I voted for every Republican on the ballot. Obviously Budd, Rouser, Dietz, and Allen were my major votes. Several Dem Judges were unopposed on my ballot. None of them received my vote.

    41. Meldrim says:

      That’s my feeling as well … but Targoz is saying that it’s Kemp +14 and Walker +2, and you posted its polls (with a “BOOM!” each time to boot).

    42. JulStol says:

      My prediction aligns with Bitter’s. I want to see Masters & Bolduc win, but I won’t believe until the races are called. I’m spending election day in Florida. Voted by mail 2 weeks ago.

    43. DW says:

      Heading out to vote. Independents should come out huge today for the GOP.

      Normally independents choose between RIGHT and LEFT. Today their choice is between RIGHT and WRONG, and they will vote Republican.

    44. DW says:

      Oh and Silver’s final forecast:

      SENATE 59/41 for the GOP
      HOUSE 84/16 for the GOP

    45. Wes says:

      Unfortunately the first two Senate races to be called tonight–IN and KY–are absolute locks for the GOP and will provide no insight into how the competitive seats are likely to go.

      We won’t start getting returns on competitive Senate races until 7:00.

    46. Chicon says:

      Wes, are there any House races in KY or IN that might be indicators?

    47. Cash Cow TM says:


      Senate: 54R-46D
      House: 236R-199D
      Governors 29R-21D

    48. DW says:

      getting dizzy with BOOMs, but here is one more…not sure if this was posted or not:



      Walker 49
      Warnock 45.8

    49. SoHope says:

      54R Senate
      242R House

      Hoping for Smiley and O’Dea but doubtful
      DeSantis by 12% at least

    50. Jeff G. says:

      Wes, did you vote for “Democracy”? I heard that was on ballot.

    51. SoHope says:

      IN-01 will tell….shouldn’t be close

    52. ken says:

      senate now 56, house now 255

    53. Wes says:

      I didn’t see Democracy anywhere on the ballot, Jeff, but then at 44, I might be starting to lose my eyesight a bit.

      I did see a bunch of races featuring individuals, most being affiliated with the Republican or Democratic Party. I chose all the Republicans.

    54. EML says:

      Wes, are there any House races in KY or IN that might be indicators?
      Despite polls closing an hour before Florida, these are slow counting states. Florida will be done first. And IN-01 is in the central time zone anyway, so that won’t start being reported until after 7PM EST.

    55. Chicon says:

      Senate – 54 R’s (GA, NH, AZ and NV flips)

      House – 248 Republican seats.

      Governors – 32 GOP (MI, WI, KS, NV, NY and OR pickups)

      Out of nowhere pick….Smiley.

    56. DW says:

      The first glimpses we will get of actual votes are the rural house seats in KY and IN that are in the eastern time zone. The margins are the key compared to 2020 and 2018.

    57. Cash Cow TM says:

      If I was a voter who ONLY voted BASED ON the TV and radio ads and the flyers I get in the mail, I would NOT vote for ANY D because they are crazy leftwing radicals who want to ruin the nation.

      I would NOT vote for any R because they are all insane radicals who want to ruin the nation.

    58. jason says:

      I voted.


    59. jason says:

      There was an Amish cart pulled by a donkey at the polling place.

      I don’t know what it means.

    60. BayernFan says:

      237 GOP house
      53 Senate GOP
      29 governors GOP

    61. jaichind says:

      I voted in NY state suburbs back at 6AM. Turnout clearly much more like 2018 than 2020 which was crazy.

    62. Hugh says:

      29 gov
      53 senate
      243 house

    63. Wes says:

      GA will be the first state with a competitive Senate race to close polls (7:00). NC and OH–not really competitive, but Dems can dream–follow next (7:30). NH is next (8:00).

    64. jason says:

      Jason, I picked 54 Senate Republicans (+4), 33 GOP governors (+5)”

      Ma, that plagiarism bait works.

    65. DW says:

      “There was an Amish cart pulled by a donkey at the polling place.

      I don’t know what it means.”

      It means watch your step as you walk around behind the donkey.

    66. Cash Cow TM says:

      LAST ONE


      10 anti Trump, anti GOP

      8 anti Trump, anti GOP
      They both must given up.

    67. Cash Cow TM says:

      Walt and I both plan to vote later today.

      Guy coming this morning to do routine annual check on heat pump. Plus, Walt has a doctor appointment at 11 this morning.

      The old guy had some sharp chest pains (RIGHT side) on Fri and Sat and went to urgent care on Sat. EKG and chest Xray showed no heart problem. Doc said he thought it was muscular…follow up with regular doc today.

    68. SoHope says:

      Republicans have taken the lead in Hillsborough County FL (Tampa).
      This includes vote by mail & early voting, as well as Election Day.

    69. Wes says:

      After 4.5 billion years and multiple stress-inducing ELEs, Walt’s heart has proved its immortality.

    70. Phil says:


      Maricopa County just pulled a fast one on Election Day voting – unbelievable!


      …and of course they knew the heaviest Republican vote would be on Election Day in person.

      Blatant out and out corruption and they don’t care how it looks.

    71. Tgca says:

      Ding Dong! The Dems are dead.
      Which old Dems? The Wicked Dems!
      Ding Dong! The Wicked Dems are dead.
      Wake up – sleepy head, rub your eyes, get out of bed.
      Wake up, the Wicked Dems are dead.
      They’ve gone where the goblins go,
      Below – below – below. Yo-ho, let’s open up and sing and ring the bells out.
      Ding Dong’ the merry-oh, sing it high, sing it low.
      Let them know
      The Wicked Dems are dead!

    72. MichiganGuy says:

      OK. I know you all have been eagerly waiting for my predictions so here they are:
      Senate 51-48 Republican

      PA Oz
      NV Laxalt
      AZ Kelly
      GA runoff

      Governor 28-22 Republican

      NY Hochul
      KS Kelly
      MI Whitmer

      House 240-195 Republican

    73. Cash Cow TM says:

      Since 10/16, RCP has moved the following House races in one direction or another:

      34 moved toward the R direction
      5 moved toward D direction

    74. RuRu says:



      So, it is 6 PM election evening and you are waiting for ‘the game’ to commence. I submit, for your approval, potential early evening entertainment. At 6 PM EST the polls in most of KY and all of Louisville (Jefferson County).

      The Louisville Mayor’s race might be an interesting early evening weathervane? There are two, reasonable and viable candidates running for an open seat: Greenberg (left/center Dem) and Dieruf (center/right Rep).

      As a practical matter Louisville (which equates to all of Jefferson County) is decidedly blue in a decidedly red state.
      Examples below:

      • Sen. McConnell (R) 2020 won KY 58 – 38 and lost Jeff. County 60 – 38.
      • Sen. Paul (R) 2016 won KY 57 – 43 and lost Jeff. County 59 – 41.
      • Trump (R) 2020 won KY 62 – 36 and lost Jeff. County 59 – 39.
      • Trump ( R) 2016 won KY 62 – 38 and lost Jeff. County 54 – 41.
      • Romney (R) 2012 won KY 60 – 38 and lost Jeff. County 55 -44.
      • Gov. Bevin (R) 2019 lost KY 49 – 49 but lost Jeff. County 67 – 32.
      • Gov. Bevin (R) 2015 won KY 58 -38 and lost Jeff. County 52 – 44.
      • Mayor Fischer (D) 2018 won Jeff. County 61 – 36. +25.
      • Mayor Fischer (D) 2014 won Jeff. County 69 – 31. +38.

      So, the Louisville Mayor seat is hopelessly lost in the Blue mist? Basically ‘Yes’ – but . . . ?

      In 2010, the last time there was an open seat for the mayor’s race with two competitive and ‘competent’ candidates, the vote results were a Fischer (D) win 51 – 48. Louisville is certainly bluer today than 12 years ago.

      Dieruf (R candidate) is a successful mayor of a small/mid-sized city (Jeffersontown) also within the confines of Jefferson County. His BIG issue is crime – pounding on that point. Greenberg relies on standard ‘blue’ talking points – mostly social policy tweaks to define his crime agenda. There is also an abortion amendment on the statewide docket – it will activate additional voters tilted to the Greenberg camp.

      There have been no public polls, but the race is seemingly competitive. In any normal dynamics, one would expect the Dem to win this vote by 20+. Hold the phone on that one – let us at least count the votes. Do not know if Dieruf can win – as the blue hue may be just too hard to climb.

      If this race is 20+ Dem win – well, perhaps some indication that the blue vote base is turning out in a traditional fashion and crime is not the vote changing force one might think (at least in the land of deep Bleuyville). If this race is 10 or under – a strong indication crime is a material voting issue. If it is 5 points or fewer – monster voting issue and somehow if it is a margin of error election – wow.

      So – there may be nothing to see here. But it will help you pass the 6 PM ¬– 7 PM time slot. And perhaps you shall be entertained and just perhaps enlightened early! I suspect this race will be closer than most expect – and dare I say, this race just might be close.

    75. Bitterlaw says:

      Phil – Details?

    76. Jeff G. says:

      Phil, what’s going on in Maricopa County?

    77. Cash Cow TM says:


      What you mean, Phil?

    78. Tgca says:

      Republicans have over 70% chance of winning Senate in midterm elections, betting markets say

      72% – GOP takes Senate
      90% – GOP takes House

    79. Meldrim says:

      Not only is most of IN-01 in Central Time, but the Gary area (the most Democratic part of the CD) always takes a looong time to count the votes; we’ll know the results from plenty of battleground districts in other states before we will know for sure what happened in IN-01.

      In 2020, Trump got 45% in IN-01 (as currently redrawn), and he got 41%-42% in 2016; prior to Trump, GOP presidential candidates usually got below 40% in that blue-collar, 30%-black CD. The Democratic incumbent, Frank Mrvan, has a good profile for the district, but the current electoral environment is so toxic for Democrats, and the GOP nominee (Air Force veteran and reservist Jennifer-Ruth Green) is such a strong candidate, that I think that it will be a 1%-2% race in either direction.

      If elected, Jennifer-Ruth Green would become only the second black woman elected to Congress as a Republican (Mia Love of Utah being the first back in 2014), and she would be one of perhaps *7* black Republicans in the House: Incumbents Byron Donalds of FL-19 and Burgess Owens of UT-04 and new-district candidate Wesley Hunt of TX-38 are all shoo-ins, new-district challenger John James of MI-10 is close to a shoo-in, while George Logan of CT-05 (who is challenging incumbent Democrat Jahana Hayes) and John Gibbs of MI-03 (who defeated incumbent Peter Meijer in the GOP primary) have at least a 50% chance of winning.

    80. Tgca says:

      Oh how convenient.

      Sabato’s Crystal Ball

      Senate pick is 51-49 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 1 seat.

      House pick is 237-198 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 24 seats.

      Gubernatorial picture is 29-21 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 1 governorship.

    81. George says:

      Its Trafalgar & St. Anselm vs the world in NH:

      RCP Average Hassan +1.4
      UNH* Hassan +2
      AmGreatness/InsiderAdvantage Hassan +1
      Data for Progress (D) Hassan +3
      Daily Wire/Trafalgar* Bolduc +1
      Emerson Hassan +4
      St. Anselm Bolduc +1

    82. Phil says:

      Seems the tabulators aren’t working – so instead of placing your ballot in the scanner and have it read in front of you, you have to put your ballot in a another bin where they assure you that your ballot will be read downtown later in the week. You don’t get to watch it read and recorded on the spot.

      Trust them. Isn’t this convenient.

      The Election Day vote is 70-30 Republican BTW.

      I’m sorry, this is just a little too convenient.

    83. Meldrim says:

      #85, link?

    84. Phil says:

      ….and it’s a county wide event. Not just some isolated precincts.

      Don’t worry, tho. Just place your ballot in the pile. They’ll take care of it. Trust them, baby!

    85. SoHope says:

      What county Phil?

    86. Phil says:

      Oh, BTW. It just happens to be predominantly happening in deep red portions of Maricopa County.

      F it.

      I’m out for the day. Sick of this banana republic crap! Hell, what’s the point of even holding elections? The corruption is blatant and it’s widespread.

      Guess they didn’t like the last four polls in the Senate race.

    87. Tina says:

      Pelosi has said that the attack on her husband and j6 are the same.

      Let’s get rid of her tonight.

      Then investigate her dealings on j6.

    88. Meldrim says:

      Again, Phil, do you have a link?

    89. Tina says:

      Maricopas corruption is a concern.

      I see that nothing has changed since 2020.

    90. DW says:

      If its a deep red precinct in Maricopa County then there should be some Republican poll watchers allowed in there to keep track of things, unlike Philadelphia.

    91. Tgca says:

      I see nothing on the Maricopa County election website or Twitter account validating Phil’s claim.

      Phil is trying to interfere with an election and suppress the vote of people of color with this FAKE news.


    92. Meldrim says:

      Tina, if by “get[ting] rid of [Pelosi]” you mean ending her speakership, then we’ll get that done tonight, no question. But if you mean voting her out of Congress … not going to happen in that district. But maybe we can get her to resign if the electoral drubbing is bad enough.

    93. Wobbles says:

      Let’s get rid of her tonight.”

      Another Ultra Mega Maga advocating for political violence.

    94. Tgca says:

      I’ve searched the internet using a number of key words and find nothing corroborating Phil’s claim.

      Unless Google is suppressing it, I’m going say it’s FAKE news.

    95. Tina says:

      Ending her speakership tonight, meldrin.

      I don’t want the fib to misconstrue things.

    96. Tina says:

      On NH, did they get rid of Same day registration?

      I think this ends up hurting us

    97. Meldrim says:

      Don’t worry, Tina, I’ll clarify to the FBI that you merely were trying to hammer the message home ….

    98. Tgca says:


      I think Tina means some dude going to her house in San Francisco in his underwear with a hammer. Not by voting means.

    99. Dylan says:

      1. Republicans HAVE to get over this aversion to voting by mail and vote in the same numbers as the dems do to overcome same day voting machine bs.

      2. Keri Lake was on one of the shows last night and said that her campaign was ready for ANY shenanigans with lawyers ready to run to court–hope she really is ready . . . .

      3. Pitchforks and torches later!

    100. jason says:

      On NH, did they get rid of Same day registration?

      I think this ends up hurting us”

      Don’t think so. No rounding up people in homeless shelters.

    101. Tgca says:

      Ok. I’m off to vote in south Floreedah.

      Let’s Go Charlie!

    102. Tina says:

      Thanks, if Maga hammer “hammers” my Sf home, I have guns and a functional alarm system.

    103. jason says:

      1. Republicans HAVE to get over this aversion to voting by mail and vote in the same numbers as the dems do to overcome same day voting machine bs.”

      Would be political suicide. The VBM system, at least in PA, is geared for fraud, probably in most other states too.

      It’s not “aversion”, its the fact it cannot be trusted.

      Rs should vote on election day.

    104. DW says:

      So I approach the voting area, and right there just outside the signs that say no campaigning beyond this sign, there is the guy handing out GOP literature supporting the Republican, and there is the guy supporting the Democrat.

      So I stop. I keep a big smile on my face and say to the Republican, “your party has had no power at all the last two years” – A big smile appears on the Democrat’s face.

      So then I turn to the Democrat and say, “And you have doubled the price of gas and food, and you have wiped out a fourth of my retirement savings.” – His smile disappeared. He didn’t know what to say.

      I turn back to the Republican to say I am voting Republican.

    105. Tina says:

      Having a functional alarm system in San Francisco is a necessity.

    106. BayernFan says:

      The Maricopa thing is all over Twitter. Video and everything.

    107. Tgca says:

      I’m not worried about voting shenanigans in Florida.

      Prior to DeSanntis becoming Gubbernor, voting in Floreedah was unreliable and results were suspect but now that’s he’s gubbernor, voting issues are non-existent.

    108. Phil says:

      Agree, Jason….and the Republicans romp on Election Day voting. Looks like Democrats in Arizona have managed to find a way to screw with that.

    109. michael corleone says:

      No Republicans don’t need to get comfortable voting by mail. Republicans need to eradicate voting by mail.

    110. Tgca says:


      I’m with Tina.

      I got cameras, an alarm system, guns, a dog with excellent hearing, and Siamese Fighting fish so it would be silly for anyone to try and unlawfully enter my townhome.

      I also walk around in spandex all day so there’s that deterrent too.

    111. DW says:

      If you vote by mail you are trusting DEMOCRAT operatives to care for your ballot until such a time as it is moved to a processing center and counted.

      Sorry folks, I don’t trust them as far as I could throw them.

      When I was a young person, my first election where I really got involved was in Wisconsin, and on the morning of the election, all the GOP vans that had been rented for the GOTV effort had their tires slashed in the night, and the DEMS offered free cigarettes in exchange for getting people into their vans.

      I learned right then a critical lesson. Its a bloody war, there are no rules that the other side will follow, and they are not EVER to be trusted.

      Its as stupid as expecting other countries to abide by the Geneva Convention in their treatment of US POWs.

    112. phoenixrisen says:

      GOP gets a 55 Senate seat majority, 251 seat majority in the House, gain four governorships (Wisconsin, Michigan, New York, and Oregon). You all know me, go big always even if it stupid to do so. ?

    113. dblaikie says:

      First of all, I would like to say that I feel sorry for Dave. Ever since Trump won the nomination and the Presidency he has been like a person who is lost. To say that the passion is gone when the GOP may have one of it’s greatest nights is rather sad. But, oh well, I glad that he continues this site and we need to be grateful for that. So as a prodigal poster who has returned, I want to say thank you Dave.

      Now as to my prediction. Let me give you my logic.
      1. Trafalgar is the best pollster so I take his numbers not as gospel, but seriously.
      2. Trafalgar is right and GOP votes are being undercounted in this toxic, woke, enviornment.
      3. In every poll, even the bogus ones, the momentum is with the GOP.
      4. It is painfully obvious that the main issues are the economy, the border, and woke education, which means that this election is being played totally on the GOP’s field.

      Well, if those 4 points are right, how can you not go big? I believe that the GOP will sweep all the so-called close Senate seats for a gain of six seats. The generic ballot is pointing to 35 to 40 seat GOP gain. In this enviornment I will take 40.

    114. phoenixrisen says:

      Correction, 5 pickups in GOP races, forgot about Kansas

    115. William says:

      Nevada is going to be r+2 to r+4 electorate once voting day crowd is included. Laxalt is a safe republican pickup.

    116. phoenixrisen says:

      My 55 Senate seat prediction is GOP picks up GA, PA, NH, AZ, and surprises in either CO or WA given Trafalgar latest polling. Thinking is the he Smiley campaign will really have to watch out for shenanigans in King County.

    117. Robbie says:

      Senate – Republicans get to 52 (includes the possibility of a runoff in GA). Katie Britt, long term, is going to be the star of the group. She’s going to be in the leadership at some point.

      House – Republicans 240 (+-5). Biden’s JA has suggested big gains for 15 months. If gerrymandering wasn’t as big as it is, Republicans might have gotten to 260 if maps from the 1990’s or early 2000’s were in use.

      Governorships – Republicans gain WI and NV, but lose Maryland. I think an upset is more likely in MI than NY, but I wouldn’t bet big money on either. PA is the continuous open wound the base refuses to heal. Mastriano was an awful candidate. Any other candidate would’ve won and helped Oz as well. Instead, the PA base has an attraction with losing with purity.

      State legislatures – Republicans gain more than 250 seats. This is where Democrats continue to get creamed and it has cut off their bench for the last decade.

      Katie Hobbs wins the award for the worst candidate of the cycle. Her refusal to debate Lake made her look unbelievably weak and was the difference.

    118. DW says:

      And tomorrow we will finally be able to learn what really happened in the Pelosi home invasion and hammer assault.

    119. Meldrim says:

      #117, DW, wasn’t one of the election-eve tire-slashers in Milwaukee the hoodlum son of Congresswoman Gwen Moore? He’s now a state representative, of course.

    120. WizardofCozz says:


      Phoenix – I live in KS, unfortunately it’s a 50/50 state when it comes to governor races, and we don’t like kicking out incumbents, even in horrible political environments. I’d say that race is a toss-up, but hopefully the momentum nationally will carry Schmidt. My best friend is getting ready to walk in to a state house seat unopposed, he’s saying does seem positive towards Schmidt, much better then the abortion referendum was.

    121. Robbie says:

      dblaikie says:
      November 8, 2022 at 10:43 am
      First of all, I would like to say that I feel sorry for Dave. Ever since Trump won the nomination and the Presidency he has been like a person who is lost.

      – That’s because Trump is an awful human being, but you’ve convinced yourself he was sent by God and he appointed conservative judges to atone for his past sins.

    122. Meldrim says:

      #124, unless GA goes to a runoff, and Pelosi decides to keep the story under wraps for another month.

    123. DW says:

      Only 9 hours to go before a pipe is scheduled to burst in Atlanta!

    124. Robbie says:

      Byron York
      The campaign that wasn’t about Trump. Many Democrats wanted it to be. Trump, too. But idea terrified Republicans actually trying to win House, Senate. Then inflation, crime, border, abortion, and Joe Biden’s unpopularity intervened.

      – Jason fraud grabs a pillow and screams with rage into it. “Nooooooooooooooo!”

    125. Cash Cow TM says:

      I would LIKE to see Dixon in MI and
      Smiley in WA both win. But think both come up short.
      Remember that the Ds did a quiet but MASTERFUL JOB in 2020 of GOTV in GA. MI, WI, NV, AZ, PA. I expect the same this cycle. I considered this in my predictions for today.

    126. Cash Cow TM says:

      Drag on the height of the R wave
      will be abortion and the deep anti-
      Trump feelings among the D side and among many Indys that will help Ds.

      Trump is toxic because he is an idiot.

    127. Cash Cow TM says:

      When is the computer snafu scheduled to simultaneously happen in PA, MI, AZ, NV and GA?

      I heard it will be sometime between 11 pm and 2 am.

    128. Tina says:

      Don’t worry about Arizona, Ronna Mcdunniels is on the “crime” scene.

    129. jason says:

      Katie Hobbs wins the award for the worst candidate of the cycle.”


      Of course, it is to cover his tracks for calling rising GOP star Kari Lake a “bad candidate”.

    130. Phil says:

      The Secretary of State’s office will sort out the problems in Arizona. I’m confident. Who is the SOS in Arizona you might ask?

      Katie Hobbs. LOL

    131. jason says:

      The campaign that wasn’t about Trump. Many Democrats wanted it to be. Trump, too’


      Amoral Scumbag, who has made this campaign 100% about Trump, now says it “wasn’t about Trump”.

    132. jason says:

      Trump is toxic because he is an idiot.”

      Zzzzz… he might be toxic with TDS morons.

      He was a damm good President. If that makes him an “idiot” bring on more “idiots”.

    133. jason says:

      That’s because Trump is an awful human being”

      He is 10 times a better “human being” than a despicable POS like Amoral Scumbag.

      So there is that.

    134. Chicon says:

      135 – Lake is the type of Republican candidate that Flyboy loathes. Just like the rest of the Republican candidates.

    135. Todd McCain says:

      Dr. John R. Samuelsen
      Election Day Turnout Update in Clark County, Nevada

      Total 12543
      Dem 2971 (23.7%)
      Rep 6332 (50.5%) +3,361
      Other 3240 (25.8%)

    136. VictrC says:

      Good morning to all!!

      House – 246 (+31)
      Senate – 52 (I just have a feeling either PA or AZ will have enough fraud to get one of the D candidates over the hump)
      Gov – 30

      Bonus – House blows it out to 255, and fraud is overcome and we get to 54 in the Senate

    137. phoenixrisen says:

      #129 LOL!! And then the Dems will unveil a new tactic. A wall of woke trans-gender people will form at precincts around the country will shout “I am a person with a period! I have no ball sack! I don’t know what sex I am but I have rights and I want to be your kids’ parents as their teacher in school!” Then all the voters will run away screaming chasing the Dems to hold onto the House and the Senate. (Shudder). Ok, I admit it, my imagination got a little carried away there.

    138. Tina says:

      It’s KARIZONA

      My superstar candidate this cycle.

      But I also like Walkee and Masters

      I like all of the “bad candidates” that the Russian hoaxer hates.

    139. Gordon Allen says:

      I agree Trump was a good and productive President. He left the country with a phenomenal GDP growth of 6% plus, and an inflation rate under 2%(after Covid no less).He left the US and the world largely at peace. Compare that with what we have now.
      He was a poor political candidate, lucky in his opponents, and the apparent shock of losing and feeling cheated has brought out the worst of his personal traits, and made him a worse candidate, who the GOP shouldn’t, and can’t afford. and won’t renominate. All can be true.

    140. Tina says:

      Ralsron is panicking

      Jon Ralston

      Repubs crushing Dems in very early going in Democratic Clark County, where all the votes are.

    141. phoenixrisen says:

      Tina, I just was going to write what Ralston’s reaction to the early election day results that were being reported.

    142. dblaikie says:

      Like Dave, Robbie is a person who is lost too. He claims to be a republican but he can’t bring himself to accept his own party. I guess the party must have left him. Sorry Robbie, but Jeb Bush, and Liz Cheney are pathetic has beens. Do us all favor, and just join the Dems. You will feel better about yourself.

    143. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      130. “Then inflation, crime, border, abortion, and Joe Biden’s unpopularity intervened.”

      What an awful day it is for concerned troll. How dare the voters focus on silly issues like crime, inflation, and Biden’s incompetency. They should solely be focused, like concerned troll, on how bad Trump is. Worse many voters fondly remember how well the country’s economy was doing under Trump — and might vote again for Trump for silly reasons, like lowering crime and restoring a prosperous economy. Concerned troll may have to flee in disgust back to Bogo Pogo.

    144. Todd McCain says:

      Election Day Turnout Update in Clark County, Nevada

      Total 20350
      Dem 4904 (24.1%)
      Rep 10098 (49.6%) +5,194
      Other 5348 (26.3%)


    145. Tgca says:

      Ok. I voted here in south Floreedah. A bit windy, on and off overcast, and occasional light drizzling so that Bish Nicole has not caused any Election Day issues.

      We are expecting a direct hit at this point as a Cat 1 hurricane but that’s nothing to worry about.

    146. Tgca says:

      Don’t discount STOOPID suburban white women voters who complain about economic issues but still pull the levers for Dems routinely because they don’t like mean tweets.

      I’ve worked with a number of these IDIOTS over the years who support many talking points they hear on CNN. They talk like they’re Republicans but often vote like Dems.

    147. SanDiegoCitizen says:

      My prediction aligns with those made by other posters:

      Senate: 52 Republicans
      House: a gain of +30 Republicans

      However, seeing some recent indications this could be a Republican blowout victory. Voters are just tired of the leftist woke nonsense. By contrast, see little enthusiasm among Democratic voters; unlike in 2018 and 2020.

    148. phoenixrisen says:

      Dr. John R. Samuelson @JohnRSamuelsen

      Election Day Turnout Update In Clark County, Nevada
      8:50 a.m. (MST)

      Total 20350
      Dem 4904 (24.1%)
      Rep 10098 (49.6%) +5194
      Others 5348 (26.3%)

      That is a lot of ground for the Dems to make up over the day today in Clark County which Dems had about a 40K early vote advantage going in today to offset the election day vote in Washoe and the rural counties. This is looking good for the GOP taking into the Indie vote that will be in play where the GOP has been leading heavily. Dem GOTV efforts likely right now are out and about in a panicked frenzy trying to get their base to the polls.

    149. phoenixrisen says:

      Todd beat me to it, you rascal!!

    150. ReadyFirst says:

      I love the Space Coast!! The Days just starting and we already are up about 65/35 Rep/Dem ratio for everything (VBM, EV, ED). Reps are sweeping everything in FL today – wipeout! Drinking my best tequila tonight to celebrate. 54 Senate, +6 Gov.

    151. jaichind says:

      Billy Newby @mantlehog

      FL ED Turnout (10:30 update minus Lee and Orange)

      GOP 575,244 (+326,833)
      Dem 248,411
      NPA 205,598

    152. jaichind says:

      The AZ – abc15 – Data Guru @Garrett_Archer
      As of 9am about 45k voters have checked in to
      58% Republican
      27% Unaffiliated
      15% Democratic

    153. phoenixrisen says:

      Mercy, the GOP voters have come out en masse today. These differential voter proportions are eye-popping.

    154. Todd McCain says:

      Dave Wasserman
      It’s pretty apparent from precinct-level data in VA and county-level data in FL that Democrats have a turnout problem today – one that’s unlikely to be solved in the next six hours.

    155. jaichind says:

      -> getting ready for defeat?

      Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
      It’s pretty apparent from precinct-level data in VA and county-level data in FL that Democrats have a turnout problem today – one that’s unlikely to be solved in the next six hours.

    156. Bitterlaw says:

      Every election, HHR is flooded with turnout reports and anecdotes.

    157. Big E says:

      That us why we come here. Hope

    158. Cash Cow TM says:


      I have some funny anecdotes about barnyard animals.

    159. phoenixrisen says:

      Wasserman confirms what is being seen in Nevada. Looks like a nationwide GOTV problem for the Dems combined with a very enthusiastic GOP base looks to equal big time disaster for the Democrats when the results come in tonight.

    160. EML says:

      Dave Wasserman
      Noon turnout reports in VA Beach – a majority of Rep. Elaine Luria’s (D) Toss Up #VA02 – show most heavily GOP precincts up to 55-60% of ’21 votes cast, vs. 40-45% in most non-white precincts.

      Total ballots cast skewing much more R than ’20 in many FL counties, esp. Miami-Dade.

    161. Meldrim says:

      Democrats have far fewer energized voters than in past cycles, and the party only stayed competitive in the early vote by cannibalizing their traditional Election Day vote; they have no one else to turn out. The wave is on.

    162. phoenixrisen says:

      Anyone have any good sites regarding Election Day voting ongoing throughout the day instead of Twitter?

    163. DW says:

      EML, I voted in a VA_02 precinct that went for Biden roughly 60/40, and this morning voting was a slow trickle. But many may have voted early, so hard to read much out of Wasserman’s comment there.

    164. EML says:

      Florida Turnout

      MAIL: 2.6mil 43D 36R
      IP: 2.3mil 51R 30D
      EDAY: 1.2mil 55R 24D (except Hillsborough not reporting Election Day for some reason)

      TOT: 6.10mil 45.5R 34.3D

    165. Cash Cow TM says:

      I asked Walt about the election and here is what he said:

      “The Democrats are despicable and a top to bottom housecleaning is in order!

      the Dems are fine with:
      –declining test score in school
      –teaching Critical Race Theory and gender identity instead of critical thinking skills
      –academically dumbing down the public school curriculum
      –having kids whose basic understanding of economics and capitalism and free enterprise is abysmal
      –having kids whose basic understanding of civics and government is abysmal
      –same with basic science skills


      –So the Ds can redefine what a recession is, what a woman is, what a riot/peaceful demonstration is, what a facist is, what free speech is, etc.

      –So the Ds can foist upon the sheep NONO factual erroneous beliefs about how masks and vaccines will PREVENT you from getting COVID; how man controls the climate; how our biggest problem is capitalism and the free enterprise system; how another big problem is the Constitution; how we live in a

    166. EML says:

      EML, I voted in a VA_02 precinct that went for Biden roughly 60/40, and this morning voting was a slow trickle. But many may have voted early, so hard to read much out of Wasserman’s comment there.
      He’s including early voting numbers in his turnout statistics.

    167. jason says:

      Ok, hack…. margins matter, but you don’t need much of a margin to overcome a 10k lead.

      “Jon Ralston
      I don’t have all rural data, but looks like the Dems had about a 10K-ballot lead in NV when the day started.

      Repubs cutting deeply into that lead in the early going, will be interesting if trend holds for next nine hours.

      GOP expected to win Election Day, but margins matter!”

    168. jason says:

      “If we lose the House and Senate, it’s going to be a horrible two years,” Biden told the small crowd gathered inside a hotel ballroom, where cameras weren’t allowed.”

      Well, they will be better than your first 2 years.

    169. Cash Cow TM says:

      (continued from Walt)

      –“…how we live in a DEMOCRACY (instead of a representative republic); how profits are evil; how founding fathers were evil; how border security is evil; how allowing free and fair elections is evil; how the traditional family is bad; how if you simply BELIEVE what the Ds in power tell you that it is actually true.

      Such as Rs are all evil racists who hate all immigrants.”

    170. jason says:

      Remember, the much vaunted “firewall” was not the Dem lead in NV, it was merely the D/R difference between Mail in and EV in Clark Co.

      The Mail in and EV in the rest of the state had cut that “lead’ to 10k at best, more likely to 8k.

      And that doesn’t factor the Indy vote, even a small R advantage would wipe that out.

    171. phoenixrisen says:

      Saw one post on RRH stating that Dems are concerned about VA-10 (Hung Cao is the GOP candidate). That would portend that the suburbs have flipped back to the GOP.

    172. jason says:

      Over at Predictit, the Dems are selling….

    173. jason says:

      That would portend that the suburbs have flipped back to the GOP”

      I wonder if Liz Cheney endorsing Spanberger didn’t actually cost her votes.

    174. jason says:

      Washoe, where Ralston was crowing about a 1000 votes lead for Dems in a county with +1.5% R registration advantage.

      Election Day – (updated Four Times a day – Cumulative Total)
      Time Democratic Republican Other Nonpartisan Total
      9:00 AM 1,065 2,878 1,349 5,292

      Gone by 9 AM.

    175. DW says:

      In VA-10, Sorry Charlie Cook took a peak out from under his toupee and said, Safe D!

    176. phoenixrisen says:

      Hmmm, you got a point jason. Spanberger is VA-7 if memory serves, Eric Cantor and Dave Brat’s district. Definitely a swing district so yeah, that is certainly plausible.

    177. Todd McCain says:


      Dr. John R. Samuelsen
      Election Day Turnout Update in Clark County, Nevada

      Total 40,562
      Dem 9,792 (24.1%)
      Rep 19,962 (59.2%) +10,170
      Other 10,808 (26.6%)


    178. jason says:

      While Amoral Scumbag comes here to troll about Trump, over at DKos they also have people with an eye off the ball…

      “Worsening climate change could make it harder to vote”

    179. Brandon says:

      That’s a typo from them and should be 49.2% for Rep. 59.2% would be game over.

    180. Tina says:


      Per Kyle Becker,

      Pa judge allows ballots until 11/14.

      What a crock.

    181. Tina says:

      Az problems are widespread now.

      Scottsdale. Ballots are not reading.

      This is a phuq up by Hobbs.

    182. Wes says:

      Supposedly the loathsome Jennifer Wexton is in legitimate trouble today against Republican Hung Cao in VA-10. If Cao beats Wexton, then Republicans will be approaching their numbers from the first half of the Hoover Administration (267).

      As an aside, a Cao is a great brand of cigar. That alone would be enough to get me to vote for Hung Cao if I lived in VA-10.

    183. Wes says:

      Ducey needs to step in in AZ since Hobbs is failing miserably at the most basic part of her job on the most important day of the year.

    184. gameboy says:

      “Ducey needs to step in in AZ” LOL It was Ducey that allowed the steal to happen in 2020. Good luck with that. All by design what’s going on in AZ.

    185. Tina says:

      This is a nightmare #.

      Harmeet K. Dhillon

      Arizona voters! If you are approaching a polling place and there is a long line, or you are told the tabulation machines are not working there (about 20-25% of the polling places in Maricopa) find a better place to vote at this link!

    186. Transparent Dem Troll says:

      I have an advance copy of Biden’s speech to be delivered tomorrow.

      “The American people were confused and got this election wrong. They didn’t understand how great things are in our third-world country. They didn’t understand how wonderful it is to allow the government to decide what is true or false, and they failed to grasp how wonderful it would be to finally ban fossil fuels so they will not be able to travel or heat their homes. We needed to have done a better job with messaging.

      They got the wrong message from the surge in crime and didn’t understand how it helps for everyone to cower in fear their homes due to the threats of violence. They don’t understand how great it is for anyone who says something we disapprove of to be labeled a terrorist and have the FBI raid the personal residences.

      Finally, the American people should have gotten the message that we only mean well by taking over the role of all parenting, where we will force little children to learn smut, and pressure the boys to receive castration and the girls double-mastectomy.

      And so it is my job as your President to correct this situation. I am taking two actions tonight.

      1) I am issuing an executive order to vacate the results of this election.

      2) I am here tonight with four justices that I have just added to the Supreme Court.

      Together, we will rid our society of these terrorist Republicans once and for all.”

    187. jason says:

      Whatever happens, we will finally be rid of blood sucking opportunist parasite Charlie Crist.

      There is a lot of competition, but he would make top 3 list of most loathsome politicians currently in office or running. DaNang Dick also. Third is a tough call, so many options…Liz Cheney, Adam Schiff, Beto….

    188. DW says:


      James Moylan (R) has defeated Judi Won Pat (D) to win the race to be Guam’s non-voting delegate to Congress. Moylan will be the 2nd Republican ever elected to be Guam’s delegate.

    189. Wes says:

      Too bad Danang Dick is as safe as a Dem running in the Deep South from Reconstruction to the ’60s, Jason.

    190. DW says:

      Another Edward Durr is lurking out there…who is it?

    191. Wes says:

      I would consider Raphael Warnock to be the most loathsome politician currently in office. He takes sleaze to a level rarely seen outside the Sewer State.

    192. Wes says:

      We won’t know till tonight, DW

    193. Tina says:

      Biden calls a lid.

      Ambulance chaser, Elias, called in.

    194. jason says:

      Jon Ralston
      Repubs still crushing it in Clark, now have 10K lead.

      One note: These totals do not include mail drop boxes — people can drop their mail ballots there. They will be tallied tonight.”

      Ralston’s last hope. Mail drop box fraud.

    195. jason says:

      Rs don’t need to win Clark. They just can’t be skunked there.

    196. Wes says:

      Any news on “Chef Boyardee” Sean Patrick Maloney?

    197. EML says:

      Guam’s first Republican representative in 30 years.

    198. Phil says:

      New Hanover County still the swing county to watch in your state, Wes?

    199. Tina says:

      Rona needs to deploy her lawyahs to AZ asap.

    200. Wes says:

      In response to the news from Guam, GF on RRH has this gem of a quip:

      We flipped Guam, but did it capsize? Hank Johnson needs to know!

    201. DW says:

      Bitter, can you interpret this for us?

    202. Tina says:

      No wonder Biden and the racist Hobbs said races won’t be known for weeks.

      Time to flood the zone Rnc Move your lawyahs now.

    203. Wes says:

      I see no reason that would change this year after being the case for decades, Phil.

    204. phoenixrisen says:

      I think this AZ stuff is overblown. If there are scan problems then one would think the mis-scanned vote would be put in a box to be hand-counted but maybe election law has it different.

    205. Jeff G. says:

      I am not making this up. Fox News is right now doing a story about the “dead heat” in the Ohio Senate race.

    206. ken says:

      fox is unwatchable

    207. ken says:

      770,000 lead in republican turnout in FL

    208. jason says:

      CNN does live interview, gets burned…

      “The first African American voter in Clark County that CNN interviewer went to said she voted for ALL Trump endorsed candidates”

    209. Tina says:


      United States District Judge Carl Nichols has ordered a stay of Steve Bannon’s prison sentence, pending appeal. Bannon was sentenced to 120 days for contempt of Congress for not complying with a subpoena from the January 6 Committee.

      The Order Staying Sentence Pending appeal reads that “the Court finds that the Defendant, Stephen K. Bannon, (a) is not likely to flee or pose a danger to the safety fo any other person or the community if released and (b) that his appeal is not taken for the purpose of delay but rather raises substantial question of law that is likely to result in a reversal or an order for a new trial.”

    210. Tina says:

      Faux is unwatchable.

      Too much Ukrainian grift and vax mandates.

      I had the misfortune to listen to pawn Hannity on the radio for 20 minutes.

      He is still clueless

    211. Wobbles says:

      770,000 lead in republican turnout in FL”

      But my sources say even they would not vote for a total bum, clown, Trump clone.

    212. ESQ5O says:

      Checking in from South Carolina here.

      Tim Scott and McMaster will cruise to re-election. In my district —- the 1st Congressional —- incumbent Nancy Mace will win by no less than 5%.

      I also expect the GOP to capture a supermajority in the state house and possibly the state senate.

      The GOP will also win every executive legal agency.

      Red sweep in Palmetto state!

    213. ESQ5O says:

      *executive level agency

    214. Tina says:

      Has the Russian hoaxer gone code red yet?

      See new Tweets

      Dave Wasserman

      It’s pretty apparent from precinct-level data in VA and county-level data in FL that Democrats have a turnout problem today – one that’s unlikely to be solved in the next six hours.
      10:04 AM · Nov 8, 2022

    215. MrVito says:

      I guess I’ll do one last drive by.

      Osceola county is 22% R by registration.

      It is 35% of the electorate there this year as of now.

      Ds better have some buses of voters lined up somewhere.

    216. jason says:

      election day voting update as of 12pm.
      Total Cast: ~103k

      Ballot share breakdown by party:
      Republican: 57%
      Unaffiliated: 28%
      Democratic: 14%
      2:04 PM · Nov 8, 2022
      ·Twitter Web App”

      Give Rs half the unaffiliated and you have a 70k+ margin there. Double it for the day and maybe you get to 150k probably more as a lot of Rs vote after work. That is a lot of plurality votes in a state that might only get a 2.2 million million turnout (2018).

      That will erase a lot of VBM Dem advantage votes in Maricopa. In AZ, VBM is not as skewed pro-Dem as other states because it has existed for a lot longer.

    217. Wes says:

      Winning supermajorities in the Assembly shouldn’t be too hard for the SCGOP, ES. Republicans need just one seat in the State Senate and two seats in the State House.

    218. Phil says:

      Fox election coverage is and has always been a complete joke. It’s superficial as hell for one thing. The “dead heat” in Ohio reporting is totally normal for them. Waste of time if you are watching their run up to the election coverage. What’s really sad is their decision desk on election night. It’s run by a leftist Democratic donor. You know. The kind of guy who couldn’t wait to call Arizona in 2020 that was finally decided by 0.3 pts…the call coming two hours before getting around to calling Ohio for Trump – a state Trump carried by half a million votes.

      Don’t waste your time on Fox.

    219. Wobbles says:

      Ds better have some buses of voters lined up somewhere”

      That is old school. Now we tamper with voting machines.

    220. jason says:

      Hey Vito, come back and join your old A-holes buddies…..

    221. Wes says:

      Fox predicted Dems would go +15 in the House in 2020. Dems went -11.

      For a network the Left vilifies as some kind of far-right propaganda rag, Fox certainly does seem to make a bunch of unfounded statements favoring liberals.

    222. jason says:

      View host Sonny Hoskin admits committing voter fraud on national TV.

      “I had trouble actually voting FOR HIM, absentee ballot today.”

      Sunny admits she voted absentee in place of her son and whines that she had trouble doing it.
      “And that made me very concerned.” She warned that they were putting them in an orange bag instead of an official box.

    223. MrVito says:

      227 meh…

      If you want Florida at your fingertips this is the trick

      “dad” is Miami Dade for example.

      Replace it with the the three digit code of your favorite county and voila. Most are the first three letters, but they are all relatively easy to figure out. Mrn for Marion, cll for collier, for example.

    224. NYCmike says:

      Hope you and the family are feeling well, Mr. Vito.

      Stay healthy.

    225. ReadyFirst says:

      It’s anecdotal, but hey I’ll take it. Spoke to a Dem client in New Hampshire today who voted this morning. She said she’s lived there for years and has never seen lines like she saw today. She was very worried Bolduc is going to win. We can only hope.

    226. jason says:

      Vito says “meh” to his old A-hole buddies?

      Normally I would be offended but since I want to be welcoming I won’t.

    227. Phil says:

      As you know, Wes, Fox is run by Murdock’s sons. They lean left and both have super lefty wives. At best they allow an establishment R tint to their news division. Strictly a $$ thing to even allow that.

    228. Wes says:

      Serious question, Mikey:

      What odds would you say Zeldin has of ousting Hochul?

    229. jason says:

      Yeah Vito, at least tell us what you are up to.

    230. ReadyFirst says:

      231. Ha! So true.

    231. New York City says:

      Haven’t been paying much attention, I am working hard to make sure Schumer wins. You can’t take anything for granted.

    232. Tina says:


      Quote Tweet

      Daniel Bostic

      Metrics all point to an overwhelming Republican victory but key counties (same ones from 2020) have bizarre outages and stories about votes not being counted, machines being down, ballots being accepted till weeks later.…

    233. Todd McCain says:

      Youre hearing a ton of stuff about Maricopa County but the GOP continues to churn out the votes there; 4-1 margin as well.

    234. Big Joe says:

      Whats up all. Just feel like I need to drop in since it’s an election day. I have hardly paid any attention to election-related or politics-related news since election day 2020 and it feels great. No sense looking to repair the proverbial broken marriage we have in this country.

      Without knowing anything, I’ll stick to my prediction that the GOP takes the House and the Senate since sometimes the macro view is all you need.

      I’ll check in tonight to boast or eat crow. 😀

      Big Joe

    235. NYCmike says:


      The best I can do is tell you it feels very weird out there. It’s not like 1993 and 1994 when Rudy and then Pataki won, but it doesn’t feel like there is much enthusiasm for her, and people are very guarded in what they say.

      That said, despite my most fervent positive thoughts, I am not sure Zeldin will be able to overcome the sheer numbers of NYC. The people here were willing to deal with a lot more misery. Although I can’t fathom it, I don’t think they have reached the tipping point yet. It is their religion.

      My original prediction of 26R-10D in Governor races includes a Zeldin victory. A man can dream.

    236. jason says:

      Hey Big Joe, welcome back.

      Considering you are a Dem, I am sure you would like to eat crow, so hopefully that won’t happen.

    237. Tina says:

      Ohio will be called quickly.

      It’s ugly for the drats.

    238. jason says:

      There aren’t many Dems like Big Joe anymore, who don’t come here to talk trash or spin the party line.

    239. Brandon says:

      We have results! Dixville Notch, NH

      Maggie Hassan 5
      Don Bolduc 0

      Chris Sununu 4
      Tom Sherman 1

      Ann Kuster 4
      Robert Burns 1

    240. Brandon says:

      Still holding strong in Clark.

      Election Day Turnout Update in Clark County, Nevada

      Total 51,907
      Dem 12,737 (24.5%)
      Rep 25,238 (48.6%) +12,501
      Other 13,932 (26.8%)

    241. Todd McCain says:

      Dr. John R. Samuelsen
      GOP continues to churn them out:

      Election Day Turnout Update in Clark County, Nevada

      Total 51,907
      Dem 12,737 (24.5%)
      Rep 25,238 (48.6%) +12,501
      Other 13,932 (26.8%)


    242. Tina says:

      Corruptica County claims that the machines were locked because password entered too many times.

      The Ccp would be proud.

      This is turd world.

    243. Cash Cow TM says:



      Ds skillfully REDEFINE what the term “election deniers” means and perpetrate the “new definition” with the help of the MSM.

      Dems forget that there have been D election deniers going back to practically every election from 2020 on WHEN THE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE WON.

      (“he is not MY president!”) election was stolen! My D congressman formally objected to certifying the results!”

      Ditto 2004

      Ditto 2016 (“Trump’s election was fraudulent!
      He is not MY president! Illegitimate!” HILLARY CLINTON and TONS OF OTHER PROMINENT Ds SAY)

      Ditto in GA governor election
      THEN, that behavior and action and thought was perfectly OKAY.

      NOW, the meme is “you must be a NUT who hates our country and is a threat to “DEMOCRACY” if you think there were any problems with the 2020 election”.
      2020 election
      Midst of the COVID pandemic.

      *In MANY states certain OFFICIALS decide–despite the election laws on the books to the contrary–that FOR THIS ELECTION, we will MAIL OUT BALLOTS TO EVERYONE–whether they ask for them or not! So you have TENS OF MILLIONS of blank and unsecured mail-in ballots floating around for weeks and weeks.

      *AND because of the COVID ISSUE, in the interest of making sure EVERYONE VOTES and we count all votes, many states (PA and LOTS of others) LOOSENED legal requirements of signature match, signing the ballot, writing in the date, etc.

      *AND in some states (PA and others) the COURTS decide to ignore STATE ELECTION LAWS and allow and DIRECT that mail in ballots arriving AFTER the state legal deadline should still be accepted and counted.

      *And in some states, some SOS person decides to put in unsecured BALLOT DROP BOXES all across the major cities.

      *And the MSM runs with the unfounded story of RUSSIAN COLLUSION with Trump to win the election (false story perpetrated by the Clinton campaign)

      * And the MSM runs with the unfounded and FALSE story (invented by the Hilary Clinton campaign) about Trump romping with and peeing on Russian prostitutes.

      *And the MSM SITS ON AND KILLS the FACTUAL AND TRUE STORY of Hunter Biden’s laptop.

      *And Joe Biden hardly ever comes out of his basement to campaign. And when he does, he gets a crowd of 20 to 50 people. And makes major gaffs.

      *And at every Trump campaign rally there are TENS OF THOUSANDS there and THOUSANDS MORE TRYING TO GET IN

      *And at a crucial time during vote counting in GA the counting process is halted (due to a bathroom pipe leak FAR AWAY FROM THE COUNTING ROOM) and local election officials sent away election observers and told them we won’t begin counting again for hours–but shortly begin counting again with no election observers present.

      *And in Detroit, Milwaukee and other places R election observers are given a rough time and denied entry to ballot counting even though they have the proper credentials

      *And in GA, MI. WI and PA and AZ they ALL suspend vote counting about the same time. And ALL later resume and ALL come up with big vote dumps at almost the SAME TIME OF NIGHT of eyepoppingly one-sided Biden landslides i the big late night vote count bundles. And in ALL of these states Biden wins ALL in VERY close elections. The total combined margin of the Biden wins to get all the ECV in all 5 states was comparatively small with individual statewide margins in some of the key states being @ 10,000 (or fewer) to 20,000 votes (IN INDIVIDUAL STATES WHERE MULTIPLE MILLIONS OF VOTES WERE CAST).

      *And there are hundreds and hundreds of election observers (Rs and Indys) who SWEAR in depositions of what they witnessed concerning voting irregularities/vote counting irregularities, votes were counted without election observers present, votes being cast by dead people or people who no longer lived in that state or hundreds of mail-in votes coming from vacant warehouses or vacant lots, etc. in multiple key states where the election results were razor thin.

      *And in 20-some bell weather counties all across America, Trump won EVERY SINGLE ONE–BUT ONE! Yet Biden gets 87 million votes and defeats
      Trump in an ECV blowout.

      *And all sorts of election analysts, and computer programmer experts, etc. came forth with info that indicated and led many to believe something FISHY had gone on with the vote counting/voting machine tallies. Including analysts who point out very suspiciously- HIGH numbers (%) of AA votes in the KEY states when compared with AA turnout % in non-key states. And how the election turnout in some inner-city precincts in Milwaukee were in excess of 100% turnout.

      *And Trump’s people file about 60 court cases about voting irregularities in 2020 election (cited above and elsewhere) in multiple states and IN NOT A SINGLE CASE DID THE COURTS DECIDE TO BRING THE CASE TO TRIAL. Those that bring the legal actions are told in pretrial “you have no standing”, “what you say may be true, but if all you allege is true it still would not have changed the outcome of the election”, etc.

      *And you have a sitting president who has done a lot to secure the southern border, has a successful foreign policy, has a strong stock market, a very low inflation, nationally has energy independence, etc. whose major issues he is dealing with are COVID, George Floyd/Antifa/BLM riots, and his own idiotic tweets and mouth and bizarre personality.
      AND THAT IS WHY YOU HAVE SO MANY PEOPLE (MAJORITY of Rs and INDYs AND EVEN a significant number of Ds) who think the 2020 election was “stolen” and there was something ‘fishy’ going on back in 2020.

      And Walt (bless his heart) said in 2020 right after the election that officials (and MSM) need to HAVE OPEN INVESTIGATIONS to clear up this mess and examine if these charges are true (and then act accordingly) or that they are false (AND CLEARLY SHOW THE AMERICAN PEOPLE WHY THEY ARE BASELESS CHARGES–OR ELSE ALL HECK WILL BREAK LOOSE).

      The officials/MSM failed to do any of THAT–then,
      and now we have THIS–now.

    244. Meldrim says:

      #208, DW, I’m no Philly expert like Bitter, but it seems to me that the city won’t reach its 2018 turnout by 8:00 p.m., and that the two wards that have had the highest turnout are the two GOP wards in the NE. Bitter, please confirm.

    245. jason says:

      AOC apologizes for not listing her pronouns on Instagram: ‘They fell off'”

      Maybe this is why Dems will lose. This is what they are focused on.

    246. Bitterlaw says:

      DW – I became a lawyer to avoid graphs. However, that site seems to indicate turnout is down from 2018 in Philadelphia. If true, that bodes well for Oz and gives Mastriano a slim chance.

      My office is across the street from City Hall. From 8:30 until 10:00 am there was a very loud get out the vote rally I could hear on the 16th floor. Not sure if it will be effective as not many people live near City Hall and many of the people working in Center City live in the suburbs.

    247. Wobbles says:

      So Trump candidate Bolduc is losing by 100%?

      I predicted this.

      Oh wait, Trump only endorsed him last week?

      Doesn’t matter, the electorate knew it would happen and that is why he has not gotten a single vote so far.

    248. Tina says:

      Guam has flipped and Climate Change was not involved.

    249. Wes says:


    250. Meldrim says:

      Wes, missed it by I.

    251. Bitterlaw says:

      It looks like the GOPneighborhoods of the Northeast and South Philadelphia are busy. The Dems need mor votes out of North Philadelphia.

    252. Tina says:


      absolutely OBLITERATES reporter attempting to bait her

      “I’m gonna be your worst freakin NIGHTMARE, we’re going to make you guys into journalists again”

    253. Tina says:

      We are going to make you journalists again.

      Kari Lake to cbs reporter

    254. jason says:

      Best Walt rant since he objected to Cleopatra being crowned Pharaoh.

      Or was it Elizabeth Taylor?

    255. Cash Cow TM says:

      “As an aside, a Cao is a great brand of cigar. That alone would be enough to get me to vote for Hung Cao if I lived in VA-10.”

      This Cow DID already vote for Cao, Wes.

      Early Mail-In Barnyard Vote Of Cows In WV Who Identify As People In VA

    256. jason says:

      It looks like the GOPneighborhoods of the Northeast and South Philadelphia are busy.”


    257. jason says:

      I feel bad Cow has voted but Lupita has not.

      Maybe that donkey at my polling place voted…

    258. Tina says:

      Mesa Arizona machines are down.

      Where is the Governor Duchey?

    259. Meldrim says:

      “Maybe that donkey at my polling place voted…”

      If so, I hope that it identifies as an elephant.

    260. Phil says:

      Baris tweets:

      Florida looks like a very quick race to call.

      Thanks, Rich for that shocking and in depth analysis.

    261. Tina says:

      Donald J. Trump@realDonaldTrump

      They are now saying that about 20% of the so-called Voting Machines in Maricopa County are not counting the Votes that have been placed in the Machine. Only Republican areas? WOW! Kari Lake, Blake Masters, and all others are being greatly harmed by this disaster. Can’t let this happen, AGAIN!!! I believe Attorney General Mark Brnovich is on the case, big time. He has a chance to be the biggest hero of them all, and at the same time save our Country from this Cancer from within!!!

    262. Todd McCain says:

      Jon Ralston
      Latest from Washoe shows GOP absolutely crushing it:
      D – 2,935
      R – 7,892
      O – 3,658

    263. NYCmike says:


      -Odd…….RBG is a Republican now?

      Usually, it’s all Dems in the afterlife!

    264. DW says:

      Jon Ralston
      Latest from Washoe shows GOP absolutely crushing it:
      D – 2,935
      R – 7,892
      O – 3,658

    265. NYCmike says:

      Todd and DW are like a glitch in the Matrix…..

    266. Brandon says:

      Ralston almost throwing in the towel…

      So non-major party voters are turning out in greater numbers than Dems to vote in person today in both Las Vegas and Reno. It is still early and the relative vote totals are pretty small compared to the early vote.

      But unless the Dems are REALLY mailing it in, I see red people.

    267. jason says:

      I see red people”

      Brandon surrounded by redskins, huh, I mean commanders.

    268. Tgca says:

      Who wants to discuss ABORTION?

    269. Phil says:

      Nobody but you

    270. Brandon says:

      Turnout in Philly doesn’t seem awful for the Dems.

      Joshua Smithley
      Philadelphia County at the 3:30 PM mark:

      ~275,000 votes cast, ~395,000 total with mail-ins. We’re now at about 72% of 2018 turnout and have officially surpassed the total raw sum of all votes cast in the county in 2014.

    271. DW says:

      Brandon, hate to state the obvious, but it depends on where in Philly and how they vote. Even on RRH several responded to the one Eeyore who spoke up.

    272. Brandon says:

      Agreed. Philadelphia County is a good place to see if there has been real movement among black men towards the GOP. The percentages there will be interesting.

    273. Sheeple,Jr. says:

      Brandon, hate to state the obvious, but 2018 is the wrong year for comparison. 2020 is the correct year. In 2020, Philadelphia County cast 725,000 ballots. So far, the County is not close.

    274. DW says:


      From CINYC:
      Corrected 2PM Rochester City numbers from the Monroe County BoE:

      -Total Rochester city: 14.2%
      -Total Towns: 24.6%
      -Totals: 22.3%

      There should be a 5 Alarm fire for the Hochul campaign in the city of Rochester right now. And Rep. Joe Morelle (D) should be very worried.

    275. Meldrim says:

      If the 66wards maps are any indication, black turnout in Philly does not appear to be very high, so it might be hard to see movement among black voters towards the GOP based on city numbers alone. Maybe with precinct data, or exit polls.

    276. Cash Cow TM says:

      AZ SOS and candidate for governor Katie Hobbs was financially supported by George Soros money machine.

      George Soros.
      Walt really despises him.

      Soros made a big push to try to get “his people” elected to SOS positions in various states (including WV, where he failed to do so).

      Soros also poured money into AZ to fund efforts to successfully stop actions brought there to investigate the 2020 election.

    277. DW says:

      And Joe Morelle (D) is in a Biden +20 district.

    278. phoenixrisen says:

      #282 Agreed DW. That is a very bad omen.

    279. Tgca says:

      277. Phil


      ABORTION is the most important issue of our times…with preferred pronouns running a close 2nd.

    280. Wes says:

      Here I thought the state of the nation under Biden’s disastrous Administration was the most important issue of our time.

    281. phoenixrisen says:

      Florida showing statewide voter turnout currently is R + 12……WOW.

    282. jason says:

      I am not too worried about Philaldelphia Co. turnout, it was huge in 2016 and Hillary still lost. The urban vote in PA is only 17% of the vote. PA only has two large cities, the capital Harrisburg has 50k people. Even Pittsburgh proper only has 300k, less than 20% of Philadelphia, most of the population in Allegheny Co is suburban.

      The key for Oz is turnout in the 40% rural vote and 43% suburban vote. He wins if he crushes Fetterman in the rural vote and holds at least 45% of the suburban vote, the rural vote will more than offset the urban vote as it did in 2016, since it is 2.5x larger.

      So unless Philadelphia Co has a much higher turnout than the rest of the state, a big margin for Fetterman there will not doom Oz.

    283. DW says:

      Yep. Dem platform:

      1) Abortions
      2) Preferred pronouns
      3) CRT in the schools
      4) Republicans are evil terrorists who threaten democracy
      5) Expose children to peddlers of smut.
      6) Pressure children to have their genitals mutilated.
      7) Speech must be controlled and regulated by the government.
      8) Open borders
      9) Defund police and reward criminals.
      10) America is evil in its history, symbols, past leaders and heroes.

      This is why I said yesterday that it will be tragic if the GOP ONLY gets 54 in the senate and 250 in the house.

    284. jason says:

      Sheep, 2020 was a presidential year, the turnout will be higher than midterms. I think 2018 might be a better benchmark.

    285. DW says:

      Unless the GOP can get presidential level turnout, or close to it, in the rural areas.

    286. Cash Cow TM says:

      WV election update

      Walt and I went down to vote.

      About 6 or so people ahead of us using the machines or waiting to do so.

      About 5 or 6 others came in to wait in line behind us.

      Walt gets his ballot.
      woman election worker loads blank paper ballot into machine AND WHILE IT IS LOADING she trues to tear off the perforated end (that is not supposed to be torn off until AFTER voting is completed). Message comes up “SPOILED BALLOT”. Worker is apologetic and said she “did it again!”
      Walt has to go back and get a new ballot, etc.

      THEN, they tell COW that I cannot vote!
      They looked it up in their election manuals and said there was nothing there about cows voting.
      I was miffed. Let out a loud and stink cow fart and moseyed on out.

      THEN, Walt’s younger son called.
      He went to work as usual this morning.
      The place next door is a voting precinct place.

      Despite repeated efforts by Walt for MANY YEARS, this 42 yr. old son HAS ALWAYS REFUSED TO REGISTER TO VOTE. He FOLLOWS THE POLITICAL NEWS and is very knowledgeable about national and international events. etc.

      So, the son calls Walt and tells him he is at the voting place and wanted to know what precinct number where we live (#42). He says he is at precinct #46 and thought all he had to do was show them his drivers’ license and then vote.

      Walt explained that HE IS NOT REGISTERED and WV does NOT have same day registration (plus he is in the wrong precinct anyway and they will not have his name on the books there–or anywhere else).

      Son has repeatedly refused to register when he has to go to DMV.
      He repeatedly has refused to fill out voter registration forms Walt has put in front of him.
      Son never voted when Walt was on the ballot.
      Son calls Walt back and proudly says he voted.
      He talked his way into getting and casting a provisional ballot (voted for all R candidates).

      God love him.

      Walt is (AGAIN) going online to download a blank voter registration form to give to son when he gets home from work so he can vote for real and have it actually count in the future.

    287. NYCmike says:

      I have always been perplexed as to why so many people take vacations on Election Day in non-leap-year years…………….

    288. jason says:

      Ralston hack is having trouble coping..

      “Jon Ralston
      Want to see what a rural landslide looks like?

      These are today’s in-person numbers from Elko, the fifth-largest rural county today:

      D — 134
      R — 1,023
      O – 364

      That ratio!”

    289. phoenixrisen says:

      Christian Heiens

      Folks, unless something insane happens in the next few hours, we’re looking at a Red Virginia.

      This is shaping up to be a bloodbath for Democrats. The freaking 10th District is now in play…

      Spanberger is toast unless Prince William shows up en-mass this evening. #VA7 #VA10

      3:05 PM · Nov 8, 2022
      ·Twitter for iPhone

    290. jason says:

      It shows Rs waited until today to vote, I doubt it is much different in rural areas everywhere.

    291. Tina says:

      Mark Hemingway

      Thought this couldn’t possibly be right but GOP consultant on the ground in AZ tells me, nope, their election day numbers are:

      58% R
      27% Indy
      14% D

      Would be a bad night for Kelly if that holds.

    292. phoenixrisen says:

      If Virginia turns red as Florida and Ohio are now quite red, that makes for a very difficult if arguably impossible electoral map for Democrats in 2024.

    293. NYCmike says:


    294. Steant1965 says:

      Over the past few years, PA has moved further right than they were. They registered more Rs these past 2 years than Ds. Today appears to be a red wave in much of the country, apparently even in VA. Yet we are to believe that the red wave will avoid PA. That doesn’t make sense. Of course, anything can happen, but it would appear if NY is a tight race this year, PA will come through for Rs.

    295. jason says:

      Spanberger is actually less partisan than most Dems, and probably we would have a saner country if she was representative of the party.

      But the biggest reason I want her to lose is so the Dems can blame Liz Cheney….

    296. Tom says:

      Walt – As a former Chief Election Judge, provisional ballots almost never count. They are generally a placebo to placate the voter.

    297. Tina says:

      Elko = Trumps capitol.

    298. DW says:

      only 2.5 hours to go in Virginia

    299. Robbie says:

      Eugene Daniels

      Trump on DeSantis: “If he did run, I will tell you things about him that won’t be very flattering. I know more about him than anybody other than perhaps his wife, who is really running his campaign.”

      – This is the party Jason fraud and the rest want. One in which Trump operates like a mob boss and uses fear and intimidation to prevent sane, credible candidates like DeSantis from challenging him.

    300. jason says:

      Steant makes a good point, the red areas of PA are getting redder and the blue areas getting bluer. But there are more red areas so the net favors Rs.

      The only caveat is how many votes did Fetterman bank before the debate that would have switched had they been cast later.

      Maybe only the most partisan voted early, so it won’t matter.

      But if it is very close, that could make the difference.

    301. phoenixrisen says:


      Florida’s Voice
      ?JUST IN: 2PM FLORIDA ELECTION UPDATE – Traditionally blue counties continue trending red
      ? PINELLAS: R+5.22% (Biden+.3%)
      ? MIAMI-DADE: R+1.64% (Biden+7.3%)
      ? HILLSBOROUGH: R+2.8% (Biden+6.8%)
      ? OSCEOLA: D+5.54% (Biden+13.8%)
      ? PALM BEACH: D+6.1% (Biden+12.8%)

    302. Greymarch says:

      Tonight’s predictions:

      House: GOP240, DEMS195
      Senate: GOP51, DEM49
      Oz wins 48.5 to 47
      Walker loses a tight one
      Laxalt by 5 in NV.
      Kelly/Masters = oh boy. could be closest of the night. Feels like recounts to me.

      While I am in the middle of predictions: Manchin finally flips to R bc he’s up for re-election in 2 years. WV is now deep-red. He cant risk being a dem in WV anymore. McConnell rewards Manchin a juicy chairmanship.

    303. Brandon says:

      First Exit Polls at 5 PM. Cue the overreaction!

    304. jason says:

      to prevent sane, credible candidates like DeSantis from challenging him.”

      Sane candidates like the one you call a total bum, a clown, and a Trump Clone?

      Zzzzz…. GFY.

    305. phoenixrisen says:

      Dave Trotter ?? ??
      4 PM Florida Nowcast model update.

      Overall Turnout Rate: 47.86%
      Dem Turnout Rate: 46.99%
      GOP Turnout Rate: 60.04%

      If the election ended now, the average Republican would win statewide between 11.35% and 13.47%.

    306. phoenixrisen says:

      1776 RP ????
      Replying to
      1:15 update of election day votes in

      votes cast: ~125k

      Party breakdown of checked-in voters:
      Republican: 56%
      Unaffiliated: 29%
      Democratic: 15%

      Since last update: ~22k votes
      Republican: 53%
      Unaffiliated: 31%
      Democratic: 16%

    307. phoenixrisen says:


      Republicans expand lead to near 10,000 in Miami-Dade County, Florida in total ballots cast. These figures include both vote-by-mail and early vote, as well as Election Day ballots.

      R: 222,623
      D: 212,662

    308. jason says:

      A momentous election day.

      Amoral Scumbag still talking about Trump.

      God, it must suck to be that much of a bitter, shallow, sorry, sick, pathetic excuse for a human being.

      It is 2022, Amoral Scumbag still stuck in the 2016 primaries.

    309. phoenixrisen says:

      ian “VOTE BY 7PM NOVEMBER 8” silverii
      Mid-Day Update courtesy of

      11/8/22 2:35PM | IT’S ELECTION DAY!
      (results as of 9:30am)

      1,726,063 Ballots have been returned (+39,759)
      664,846 Unaffiliated (38.52%)??
      543,149 Democrats (31.47%)??
      499,278Republicans (28.93%)??

      #copolitics #cosen #cogov #coleg
      3:37 PM · Nov 8, 2022
      ·Twitter Web App

    310. Skippy says:

      Im starting to wonder about my home state of Minnesota. These waves don’t happen in their independent silos.

      Is the Red Wave large enough to take some Republicans to win state wide elections in Minnesota tonight? Is someone else other than Attorney General Keith Ellison going down tonight?

      I think so.

    311. Skippy says:


      With those amazing numbers Colorado has a shot to go Red….lets go!!

    312. DW says:

      Vote like you want to save what’s left of your retirement plan!!

    313. Tina says:

      So the racist never bothered to check the printers?

      Cameron Arcand

      BREAKING: Maricopa County says that they have “identified the solution” for tabulator issues.

      “County technicians have changed the printer settings, which seems to have resolved this issue.”

    314. BennSue says:

      54 Senate seats GOP
      +46 House seats GOP
      MI Gov stays D, NY goes R, AZ toss
      King defeats Kodos 53-47.

    315. jason says:


      Seen on Predictit..

      WoodenWindows • an hour ago

      Herschel will be the first senator with a sub 80 IQ.

      ekaneti WoodenWindows • 23 minutes ago

      You never met Mazie Hirono

    316. Tina says:

      Elko, Nevada

      35 degrees

      Snow on ground

      And Maga is rolling.

    317. DW says:

      unless there is an absolute tsunami that pulls in NH, CO and WA upsets, there is no way we will know the senate control tonight. PA has already said they won’t count their ballots, AZ is a mess, GA will be painfully slow with their burst pipes and a runoff, and so if Nevada gets called tonight, that gets us to 50. We will have to wait to see if its 51, 52, or 53.

    318. jason says:

      Indies in blue states trend blue.

      Indies in purple states are divided.

      Indies in red states trend red.

      I am not convinced most Indies in CO are going red, but I hope to be wrong.

    319. jason says:

      Hey Bennie, how goes it.

    320. Chicon says:

      327 – this generally seems true. I think this year might be an exception. Could be a crazy night, imo.

    321. phoenixrisen says:

      DW, only question is how big will the tsunami be looking at turnout reports coming in nationwide.

      O’Dea I think now has a great shot at beating Bennett seeing the turnout thus far in Colorado.

    322. jason says:

      DW, you forgot NH. WIll probably report tonight. If Bolduc wins, not only will we know who controls the Senate it probably means Rs win all 3 outstanding races.

    323. jason says:

      Whoops, I see you mentioned NH. I don’t think it is as unlikely as CO and WA.

    324. Jeff G. says:

      Newt Gingrich has been saying for a while that this would be the biggest Republican wave election since 1920.

    325. EML says:

      Jon Ralston
      “How are you feeling about your predictions?”
      –Multiple people emailing and texting me.

      “What predictions?”
      –Me, trying to get into
      ‘s Content Management System to find the delete key.

    326. phoenixrisen says:

      Kyle Becker

      ‘Near presidential election’ turnout being reported in Culpeper, Spotsylvania, and Greene Counties. Dem. incumbent Abigail Spanberger in danger of defeat in one of the most-watched races in America. #VA7

    327. jason says:

      Ralston hack says he is trying to find the delete key on his prediction.

      At least he has a trace of a sense of humor.

    328. phoenixrisen says:

      2022 Nevada Election Turnout Update 4:45pm ET.

      Polls in NV close in 5 hours and we should have an update soon for all rurals.

      As it stands Clark keeps dropping 2,000 net vote gains for Republicans each hour. Current lead is 10,000 raw votes.

    329. jason says:

      Screw you, EML.

    330. phoenixrisen says:

      Dr. John R. Samuelsen
      IN-PERSON Election Day Turnout Update in Clark County, Nevada

      Total 73,575
      Dem 18,530 (25.2%)
      Rep 34,848 (47.3%) +16,318
      Other 20,197 (27.5%)


    331. EML says:

      5PM CNN Exit Poll

      100D 0R

    332. phoenixrisen says:

      I think Ralston right now is well on his way to drowning in his whiskey sorry.

    333. jason says:

      Psaki still spinning….

      Jen Psaki
      Don’t freak out early alert for tonight-Pennsylvania reports Election Day results before mail in ballot results which will make the early reporting look skewed to Rs because more Dems vote by mail (70% of requested ballots this year were dems) so hang tight tonight

    334. Wes says:

      I’m curious as to why Greymarch is predicting Walker will lose. Everything says Warnock is in deep trouble while Walker is surging. Of course since Warnock would have to get to 50% to end the election today, that prediction is even more curious.

    335. Cash Cow TM says:

      You Hoggers getting all excited about election day turnout numbers being a harbinger of good things for Rs…


      The Ds like to do MAIL IN BALLOTS.

      SO there is that to factor in.

    336. Marv says:

      Hi Folks,

      House: GOP 248
      Senate: GOP ~~54 (PA hold, pick-ups in NH, GA, AZ and ~~WA)
      GOV: NY, AZ, and NV pick-ups. No prediction on MI and possible pick up in OR.

    337. DW says:

      Wes, I had same thought. Look at Walker’s line compared to Warnock. Late breakers going red:

    338. DW says:

      Marv, thanks for use of the jet.

    339. DW says:

      Warnock led only THREE of the final 15 polls on RCP.

      I know, I know, burst pipe incoming.

    340. phoenixrisen says:

      Thing is CC, that Mail-In numbers are reported periodically. The Dems have a major election day turnout problem right now. The margins the GOP have are way too much.

    341. phoenixrisen says:

      (Eyes real big)

      Evan Watson
      Election Day update: As of 10:30 a.m. about 46% of voters have returned their ballots in Oregon.

      That includes Monday’s total, the largest single day % return of the cycle so far (which is typical).

      60% of GOP voters have returned ballots, compared to 56% of Dems.

    342. Skippy says:

      Ist wave numbers coming in and they look horrible for Democrats. Remember, GOP numbers get better as more exit polls numbers come in during the night.

    343. phoenixrisen says:

      Skippy, link?

    344. Cash Cow TM says:

      Luzerne county, PA
      Judge has ordered polls to stay open there until 10 p.m.

      Paper ballot shortages…

    345. jason says:

      Fox News poll is stupid.

      More fossil fuel 47%
      Alternatives 53%

      Simplistic BS.

      Should health care be responsibility of govt

      Yes 65
      No 35

      Simplistic BS

    346. phoenixrisen says:

      Yeesh, Luzerne is deep red. Gives you an idea of the turnout.

    347. Marv says:

      #347 DW,

      You’re welcome. We can’t use it this weekend because both pilots are on vacation.

    348. DW says:

      jason, I am in favor of my car being run on tapwater, getting 100 miles per gallon of tapwater.

    349. phoenixrisen says:

      That is such BS jason. Fox News trying to mitigate the catastrophic results and soften the mandate of the GOP is going to get and subsequent referendum on Biden.

    350. Cash Cow TM says:

      Luzerne county is in NE part of PA.

      In Wyoming Valley…
      (but also listed as “Metro” area.

      Looks like there are a too far north to be in Philly metro area.

      I think this is in the Scranton/Wilkes Barre area.


    351. Todd McCain says:

      CNN exit polls show GOP +1; let’s hope the after work surge moves that up.

    352. DW says:

      exit polling is still done? Even after so many vote by mail or vote early in person?

    353. Cash Cow TM says:


      Walt ow has a bunch of tests to do:
      –another thyroid test (last one 2020)
      –stress test
      –some sort of lung test

      But the Dr. thinks the right side chest pains are muscular.
      Walt told the doc that his wife won’t let him alone to take it easy.

      She gets him to help with flower garden clearing, putting ore bags of salt in the water softener, and yesterday (sice it was a “non-strenuous task) had him clean fingerprints off 22 interior and exterior doors (both sides). Walt said his right side chest muscles hurt after that.

      Cow agrees.
      Even today–ELECTION DAY–she got Walt off the lapto to peal potatoes and do other chores.

    354. jason says:

      The Ds like to do MAIL IN BALLOTS.

      SO there is that to factor in.’

      Yes and no.

      In PA 1.4 million ballots were requested, about 85% will be returned. Say 1.2 million.

      70/30 D/R…say 840k to 360k.. difference 480k assumes Indies even split.

      But most are from Phila and Allegheny counties, over 25% of them. So Dems are cannibalizing their votes.

    355. jason says:

      Not most, a large percentage.

    356. Skippy says:


      Exit Polls always improve throughout the night for GOP. 1st Wave is high water point for Democrats.

      Buckle up.

    357. Chicon says:

      367 – exit polls are also notoriously inaccurate.

    358. Skippy says:

      Fox News and CNN Polls will take another beating after 2022 elections but yet neither cable news networks will change who runs their polling. Incredible.

    359. Skippy says:


      Of course….but historically however accurate the numbers are they get better for GOP as night continues. I always put this fact in the comments every election cycle and it always comes true.

    360. Chicon says:

      369 – their goals are not necessarily to be right; they are trying to get discussion to enhance ratings.

    361. DW says:

      Wondering if the one blue seat in Kentucky District 3 will be in play. 15 minutes to go.

    362. RuRu says:


      So, it is 6 PM election evening and you are waiting for ‘the game’ to commence. I submit, for your approval, potential early evening entertainment.

      At 6 PM EST the polls in most of KY and all of Louisville (Jefferson County).

      The Louisville Mayor’s race might be an interesting early evening weathervane? There are two, reasonable and viable candidates running for an open seat: Greenberg (left/center Dem) and Dieruf (center/right Rep).

      As a practical matter Louisville (which equates to all of Jefferson County) is decidedly blue in a decidedly red state.

      Examples below:

      • Sen. McConnell (R) 2020 won KY 58 – 38 and lost Jeff. County 60 – 38.
      • Sen. Paul (R) 2016 won KY 57 – 43 and lost Jeff. County 59 – 41.
      • Trump (R) 2020 won KY 62 – 36 and lost Jeff. County 59 – 39.
      • Trump ( R) 2016 won KY 62 – 38 and lost Jeff. County 54 – 41.
      • Romney (R) 2012 won KY 60 – 38 and lost Jeff. County 55 -44.
      • Gov. Bevin (R) 2019 lost KY 49 – 49 but lost Jeff. County 67 – 32.
      • Gov. Bevin (R) 2015 won KY 58 -38 and lost Jeff. County 52 – 44.
      • Mayor Fischer (D) 2018 won Jeff. County 61 – 36. +25.
      • Mayor Fischer (D) 2014 won Jeff. County 69 – 31. +38.

      So, the Louisville Mayor seat is hopelessly lost in the Blue mist? Basically ‘Yes’ – but . . . ?

      In 2010, the last time there was an open seat for the mayor’s race with two competitive and ‘competent’ candidates, the vote results were a Fischer (D) win 51 – 48. Louisville is certainly bluer today than 12 years ago.

      Dieruf (R candidate) is a successful mayor of a small/mid-sized city (Jeffersontown) also within the confines of Jefferson County. His BIG issue is crime – pounding on that point. Greenberg relies on standard ‘blue’ talking points – mostly social policy tweaks to define his crime agenda. There is also an abortion amendment on the statewide docket – it will activate additional voters tilted to the Greenberg camp.

      There have been no public polls, but the race is seemingly competitive. In any normal dynamics, one would expect the Dem to win this vote by 20+.

      Hold the phone on that one – let us at least count the votes. Do not know if Dieruf can win – as the blue hue may be just too hard to climb.

      If this race is 20+ Dem win – well, perhaps some indication that the blue vote base is turning out in a traditional fashion and crime is not the vote changing force one might think (at least in the land of deep Bluesville). If this race is 10 or under – a strong indication crime is a material voting issue. If it is 5 points or fewer – monster voting issue and somehow if it is a margin of error election – wow.

      So – there may be nothing to see here. But it will help you pass the 6 PM ¬– 7 PM time slot. And perhaps you shall be entertained and just perhaps enlightened early!

      I suspect this race will be closer than most expect – and dare I say, this race just might be close.

    363. Skippy says:

      Thanks for the info RuRu.

    364. jason says:

      Remember that 27% abortion works both ways. It is not just the most important for Dems. Some of those are Rs.

    365. jason says:

      Keep us posted on the early results Ruru

    366. jason says:

      Keep us posted on the early returns ruru.

    367. Skippy says:


      Baseline: 930K, 37.5-37.4% R/D
      EDAY: 158K, 55-15% R/D (was 56-15% R/D)
      NOW: 1088K, 40.1-34.2% R/D

      When this one county is added to AZ’s total, we get

      AZ NOW: 1755K, 38.7-36.0% R/D


      Keeps getting better…little by little.

    368. Meldrim says:

      Cow, Wilkes-Barre is in Luzerne (as is Hazleton). It used to lean Democrat 20 years ago (and was represented for a couple of decades by pro-life Democrat Paul Kanjorski), but now is solidly Republican.

    369. jason says:

      Zeldin at 31% at Predictit

    370. jason says:

      Keeps getting better…little by little”

      Good, 3 hours earlier than here.

    371. jason says:

      Van Jones says Rs are running on complete abortion ban only supported by 9% of voters.

      He doesn’t mention that only 30% believe abortion should be legal in most cases.

    372. jason says:

      I mean in all cases, but 30% is correct for most cases too.

    373. jason says:

      Abortion top issue for 44% of Dems.

      They got their own voters to vote for them I guess.

    374. MrVito says:

      Hillsborough has hit peak hour with close to 16000 ballots processed in the last hour. R lead up to 17000 there.

    375. Will says:

      Senate 54
      House 248

      Don’t know how to gauge the House…

      My locale

      Budd and Rouzer win. Add some supreme court justices

    376. Meldrim says:

      Polls close in the EST portions of KY and IN. Have they called the Senate races for Young and Paul already?

    377. jason says:


    378. Meldrim says:

      Mr. Vito, is that 17,000-vote lead in Hillsborough just for ED, or does it include the early and absentee vote?

    379. Brion says:

      Been gone for awhile, senate 53 GOP + 47. Hermetically sealed mayonnaise jar. The great Carnac!!!

    380. Brion says:

      +47 house

    381. Waingro says: