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    September 2, 2021

    Ciattarelli Within 1% of Murphy in NJ, “Keep Newsom” Stretches Lead In Two More Polls

    Could the gubernatorial race in New Jersey be closer than the race in Virginia? A new poll from Fabrizio Lee and Associates shows the race down to a single percentage point.

    GOVERNOR – NEW JERSEY (FLA)
    Phil Murphy (D-inc) 46%
    Jack Ciattarelli (R) 45%

    This poll was done August 24-29 among 600 likely voters. Meanwhile in California, two new polls show that keeping Newsom appears to be more and more likely. These two new polls come from Public Policy Institute of California and Trafalgar Group.

    CALIFORNIA – RECALL ELECTION (PPIC)
    Keep 58%
    Remove 39%

    CALIFORNIA – RECALL ELECTION (Trafalgar)
    Keep 52%
    Remove 44%

    The PPIC poll was done August 20-29 among 1200 likely voters. The Trafalgar poll wa done August 26-29 among 1088 likely voters.

    August 31, 2021

    Keeping Newsom Leads By 8% in CA, McAuliffe Leads Two More Polls in VA

    Is the attempt to recall Governor Gavin Newsom starting to fizzle. It seems most of the polling has either shown the recall effort to be at worst even and in many cases favorable to Newsom maintaining his job. The latest comes from Survey USA which has the “Keep” leading the “Remove” by 8%.

    CALIFORNIA – RECALL GAVIN NEWSOM (Survey USA)
    Keep 51%
    Remove 43%

    CALIFORNIA – RECALL REPLACEMENT (Survey USA)
    Larry Elder (R) 27%
    John Cox (R) 6%
    Kevin Paffrath (D) 6%
    Holly Baade (D) 5%
    Kevin Kiley (R) 5%
    Brandon Ross (D) 5%
    Kevin Faulconer (R) 5%
    Everyone Else 3% or less

    This poll was done August 26-28 among 816 likely voters. Meanwhile in Virginia, two more polls showing Terry McAuliffe ahead of Glenn Youngkin although the poll from Trafalgar Group has it within a single percent age point while Monmouth University shows a 5% lead for McAuliffe.

    GOVERNOR – VIRGINIA (Trafalgar)
    Terry McAuliffe (D) 47%
    Glenn Youngkin (R) 46%

    GOVERNOR – VIRGINIA (Monmouth)
    Terry McAuliffe (D) 47%
    Glenn Youngkin (R) 42%

    Trafalgar Group completed their latest poll between August 26-29 among 1074 likely voters and Monmouth University did their poll between August 24-29 among 802 registered voters. Glenn Youngkin has still yet to lead a single public poll in the Virginia gubernatorial race since the General election period began.

    August 26, 2021

    McAuliffe Leads By 6% and 9% In Two New Polls in VA

    Two more polls from the state of Virginia showing Terry McAuliffe with a lead over Glenn Youngkin. These come from Change Research and Christopher Newport University.

    GOVERNOR – VIRGINIA (Change Research)
    Terry McAuliffe (D) 49%
    Glenn Youngkin (R) 43%

    GOVERNOR – VIRGINIA (CNU)
    Terry McAuliffe (D) 50%
    Glenn Youngkin (R) 41%

    Change Research completed their latest poll between August 17-21 among 1653 likely voters and Christopher Newport University did their poll between August 15-23 among 800 likely voters.

    August 23, 2021

    McAuliffe Leads Youngkin By 3% in VA / Two Polls in FL Give Different Results

    Change Research has added to the recent pile of polls in Virginia and shows Terry McAuliffe up by 3% over Glenn Youngkin.

    GOVERNOR – VIRGINIA (Change Research)
    Terry McAuliffe (D) 47%
    Glenn Youngkin (R) 44%

    This poll was done August 14-18 among 1334 likely voters. While the margin fluctuates, one common theme of every public poll in Virginia thus far is Terry McAuliffe leads Glenn Youngkin. Meanwhile, we have two new polls in the state of Florida that completely contradict each other at the gubernatorial level. They come from the aforementioned Change Research and The Political Matrix/The Listener Group.

    GOVERNOR – FLORIDA (Change Research)
    Ron DeSantis (R-inc) 49%
    Charlie Crist (D) 45%

    Ron DeSantis (R-inc) 49%
    Nikki Fried (D) 44%

    GOVERNOR – FLORIDA (TPM/TLG)
    Charlie Crist (D) 57%
    Ron DeSantis (R-inc) 43%

    Nikki Fried (D) 54%
    Ron DeSantis (R-inc) 46%

    Interestingly while hResearch was more favorable to Republicans at the gubernatorial level, their poll of the US Senate race was worse for Marco Rubio.

    US SENATE – FLORIDA (Change Research)
    Marco Rubio (R-inc) 47%
    Val Demings (D) 44%

    US SENATE – FLORIDA (TPM/TLG)
    Marco Rubio (R-inc) 55%
    Val Demings (D) 45%

    The Change Research poll was done August 14-17 among 1455 likely voters while the Political Matrix/The Listener Group poll was done August 14-18 among 1000 likely voters. Two polls over basically the same exact period of time giving completely different results.

    August 20, 2021

    McAuliffe Leads Youngkin In Two New Polls in VA

    We received two new polls for the state of Virginia that give Terry McAuliffe an 8% lead (Roanoke College) a 3% lead lead (Virginia Commonwealth University).

    GOVERNOR – VIRGINIA (Roanoke College)
    Terry McAuliffe (D) 46%
    Glenn Youngkin (R) 38%

    GOVERNOR – VIRGINIA (VCU)
    Terry McAuliffe (D) 40%
    Glenn Youngkin (R) 37%

    Both polls were completed over more than a week period, with Roanoke College doing their poll between August 3-17 among 558 likely voters and Virginia Commonwealth University doing their poll between August 4-15 among 770 registered voters.

    August 18, 2021

    Murphy Dominates in NJ, Rubio Leads Two Polls in FL

    The Gubernatorial seat in the state of New Jersey still seems out of reach of Republicans in a new poll from Monmouth University.

    GOVERNOR – NEW JERSEY (Monmouth University)
    Phil Murphy (D-inc) 52%
    Jack Ciattarelli (R) 36%

    This poll was done August 11-16 among 810 registered voters. Meanwhile in Florida we have two different polls, one from StPetePolls.org and one from Susquehanna Polling and Research, that give wildly different views of the US Senate race in Florida in a potential match up between Marco Rubio and Val Demings. Either Marco Rubio is up by 11% or barely ahead by 2%.

    US SENATE – FLORIDA (SPR)
    Marco Rubio (R-inc) 50%
    Val Demings (D) 39%

    US SENATE – FLORIDA (StPetePolls.org)
    Marco Rubio (R-inc) 48%
    Val Demmings (D) 46%

    Meanwhile in the gubernatorial race, the Susquehanna poll has Ron DeSantis up over both Charlie Crist and Nikki Fried.

    GOVERNOR – FLORIDA (SPR)
    Ron DeSantis (R-inc) 46%
    Charlie Crist (D) 43%

    Ron DeSantis (R-inc) 50%
    Mikki Fried (D) 40%

    This poll was done August 4-10 among 700 registered voters.

    August 14, 2021

    Youngkin Within 2% of McAuliffe in VA

    We have a new poll from co/efficient for the race in Virginia that shows former Governor Terry McAuliffe with a small 2% lead over Republican Glenn Youngkin.

    GOVERNOR – VIRGINIA (co/efficient)
    Terry McAuliffe (D) 47%
    Glenn Youngkin (R) 45%

    This poll was done August 8-9 among 1200 likely voters.

    August 10, 2021

    DeSantis Leads GOP Presidential Field Without Trump

    The latest poll from McLaughlin and Associates shows the Republican nomination is Donald Trump’s if he wants it as he hits 54% in the GOP field. Without him, Ron DeSantis continues to lead the GOP field with Donald Trump’s is now in second place.

    PRESIDENT – NATIONAL – GOP PRIMARY (McLaughlin and Associates)
    Ron DeSantis 23%
    Donald Trump Jr 12%
    Mike Pence 11%
    Ted Cruz 9%
    Candace Owens 6%
    Ivanka Trump 5%
    Mitt Romney 4%
    Nikki Haley 4%
    Marco Rubio 4%
    Kristi Noem 2%
    Mike Pompeo 2%
    Liz Cheney 1%
    Tim Scott 1%
    Tom Cotton 1%
    John Kasich 1%
    Rick Scott 0%

    This poll was done July 29-August 3 among 467 likely primary voters.

    August 6, 2021

    Warnock Leads All Republicans in GA US Senate Race for 2022

    Regaining one of the US Senate seats in the state of Georgia may not be too easy for Republicans as even their top candidate trails Raphael Warnock in a potential match up for 2022 according to a new poll from Public Policy Polling.

    US SENATE – GEORGIA (PPP)
    Raphael Warnock (D-inc) 48%
    Herschel Walker (R) 46%

    Raphael Warnock (D-inc) 47%
    Kelly Loeffler (R) 44%

    Raphael Warnock (D-inc) 46%
    Gary Black (R) 38%

    This poll was done August 4-5 among 622 likely voters.

    August 4, 2021

    Two Divergent Polls in CA Show Recall Up By Double Digits or Close to Tied

    Two completely different results in the California Recall Election from two different polling organizations. We’ll start with Emerson College that shows Newsom hanging on, but if he should be recalled, Republican Larry Elder dominating the field while the top Democrat Kevin Paffrath coming in at a lowly 1%.

    GOVERNOR RECALL – GAVIN NEWSOM (Emerson College)
    No 46%
    Yes 48%

    GOVERNOR RECALL – CALIFORNIA – REPLACEMENT (Emerson College)
    Larry Elder (R) 23%
    John Cox (R) 7%
    Caitlyn Jenner (R) 7%
    Kevin Kiley (R) 5%
    Kevin Faulconer (R) 4%
    Kevin Paffrath (D) 1%

    This poll was done July 30-August 1 among 1000 likely voters. On the flipside, a new poll from Survey USA shows a much wider margin in favor of recalling Newsom and in a completely different view, has Democrat Paffrath leading the field to replace Newsom.

    GOVERNOR RECALL – GAVIN NEWSOM (Survey USA)
    Yes 51%
    No 40%

    GOVERNOR RECALL – CALIFORNIA – REPLACEMENT (Survey USA)
    Kevin Paffrath (D) 27%
    Larry Elder (R) 23%
    John Cox (R) 10%
    Kevin Faulconer (R) 5%
    Doug Ose (R) 4%
    Caitlyn Jenner (R) 4%
    Kevin Kiley (R) 3%

    This poll was done August 2-4 among 545 likely voters. Just stunning the difference in the level of support for Paffrath in two supposed reputable polling companies but in general, one does have to think Democrats (even the ones supporting the recall) are going to consolidate around a single candidate at some point especially if it appears Newsom is going to go down and Paffrath seems to be the only name that keeps being mentioned in these polls.

    Posted by Dave at 7:53 pm
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