October 22, 2021

    Gov Race in VA Tied, Murphy Leads Ciattarelli By 6% in NJ

    Its been ten days since my last post so to get a new thread going, here are the two most recent polls for the gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey from Monmouth University and Emerson College respectively.

    GOVERNOR – VIRGINIA (Monmouth)
    Terry McAuliffe (D) 46%
    Glenn Youngkin (R) 46%

    Phil Murphy (D-inc) 50%
    Jack Ciattarelli (R) 44%

    The VA poll was done October 16-19 among 1005 registered voters. The NJ poll was done October 15-18 among 600 likely voters.

    October 12, 2021

    McAuliffe Leads Youngkin By 3% in VA

    We have a new poll from CBS News and YouGov showing Terry McAuliffe with a 3% lead over Glenn Youngkin as we are now three weeks away from Election Day.

    Terry McAuliffe (D) 50%
    Glenn Youngkin (R) 47%

    I used ot subscribe to the theory in the early days of early voting that it didn’t matter who had a perceived advantage in early voting since it was usually a small percentage and it wouldn’t change the overall vote total enough to make much of a difference. but with early voting almost becoming as popular (or even more popular) than Election Day voting and the fact that early voting is not going away, Republicans are going to have figure out a way to get their voters to also vote early in the same percentage numbers as Democrats. Every early vote that occurs is one less vote a party has to chase to get to the polls on Election Day. This poll shows among people who have already voted, McAuliffe is already ahead 61%-37%.

    This poll was done October 4-11 among 1040 likely voters.

    October 6, 2021

    McAuliffe Lead in VA Down to 1%

    I’ve been a little delinquent lately so to get a new thread going, here is a new poll from Emerson College that shows Terry McAuliffe with a single-percentage-point lead in the gubernatorial race in Virginia.

    Terry McAuliffe (D) 49%
    Glenn Youngkin (R) 48%

    This poll was done October 1-3 among 620 likely voters.

    September 25, 2021

    Trump Leads Both Biden and Harris By Double Digits

    If you are a Republican thinking Donald Trump is a lock to reclaim office in 2024, then the latest poll from Rasmussen Reports is for you. Rasmussen Reports has put out a new poll showing Donald Trump with a double-digit lead over both Joe Biden and Kamala Harris.

    PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (Rasmussen Reports)
    Donald Trump (R) 51%
    Joe Biden (D-inc) 41%

    Donald Trump (R) 52%
    Kamala Harris (D) 39%

    This poll was done September 21-22 among 1000 likely voters.

    September 21, 2021

    McAuliffe Leads Youngkin In Three Polls in VA, Murphy Leads Ciattarelli By 3% in NJ

    Three new polls for the race in Virginia continue to show Terry McAuliffe ahead of Glenn Youngkin. They come from KAConsulting, Public Policy Polling and Virginia Commonwealth University.

    GOVERNOR – VIRGINIA (KAConsulting)
    Terry McAuliffe (D) 46%
    Glenn Youngkin (R) 42%

    Terry McAuliffe (D) 45%
    Glenn Youngkin (R) 42%

    Terry McAuliffe (D) 43%
    Glenn Youngkin (R) 34%

    The KAConsulting poll was done September 17-19 among 700 likely voters. The PPP poll was done September 17-18 among 875 likely voters. The VCU was done September 7-15 among 731 likely voters. Meanwhile in New Jersey, the race may actually be closer than Virginia according to a new poll from National Research.

    Phil Murphy (D-inc) 45%
    Jack Ciattarelli (R) 42%

    This poll was done September 13-16 among 600 likely voters.

    September 17, 2021

    McAuliffe Leads Two New Polls in VA

    Two new polls in the last couple days in the state of Virginia have the gubernatorial race at a 3% and 4% lead for Terry McAuliffe. The polls come from The Washington Post/George Mason and Emerson College.

    GOVERNOR-VIRGINIA (WaPo/George Mason)
    Terry McAuliffe (D) 50%
    Glenn Youngkin (R) 47%

    Terry McAuliffe (D) 49%
    Glenn Youngkin (R) 45%

    The WaPo/Mason poll was done September 7-13 among 728 likely while the Emerson poll was done September 13-14 among 778 likely voters.

    September 14, 2021

    Election Night – California Recall

    While I posted a few polls here and there for the recall election in California, I did not track them formally especially after it was becoming clear in poll after poll that the attempt to recall Gavin Newsom was going to fail and fail miserably. I guess there is always a chance but tonight might be more of a whimper with Gavin Newsom maintaining his gubernatorial seat easily even if Republican Larry Elder comes out as the clear winner to have replaced him should it go the other way.

    One wonders if Republicans had managed to come up with a more publicly favorable candidate who people could rally around like they did in 2003 with Arnold Schwarzenegger would this election this evening have turned out differently.

    Polls close at 11pm EDT (8pm PDT)

    September 10, 2021

    Youngkin Ties McAuliffe in VA

    I’ve pointed out in some previous posts about how there have been no public polls showing Republican Glenn Youngkin ahead of Democrat Terry McAuliffe in Virginia. Well that changed this week with a new poll from WPA Intelligence that shows a tied race in the head-to-head match up and shows Youngkin edging ahead when other candidates are added to the mix.

    Glenn Youngkin (R) 48%
    Terry McAuliffe (D) 48%

    Glenn Youngkin (R) 48%
    Terry McAuliffe (D) 46%
    Princess Blanding (L) 3%

    This poll was done August 30-September 2 among 734 likely voters.

    September 6, 2021

    Newsom Keeping Job Leads By Double Digits in CA

    The votes will be counted a little more than a week from now and the latest poll from The Trafalgar Group shows Gavin Newsom looking more and more like he will be able to finish this term.

    Keep 53%
    Remove 43%

    Larry Elder (R) 32%
    Dan Paffrath (D) 13%
    Kevin Faulconer (R) 4%
    Kevin Kiley (R) 4%
    Jacqueline McGowan (D) 3%
    John Cox (R) 3%
    Caitlyn Jenner 1%

    This poll was done September 2-4 among 1079 likely voters.

    September 3, 2021

    DeSantis leads Fried/Crist by 3% in FL, Trails Biden By Double Digits in 2024

    We have a new poll out of Florida from RMG Research that shows Ron DeSantis holding a 3% lead over both Charlie Crist and Nikki Fried in his bid for another term.

    Ron DeSantis (R-inc) 41%
    Nikki Fried (D) 38%

    Ron DeSantis (R-inc) 41%
    Charlie Crist (D) 38%

    The best part of this press release may be what was included at the bottom:

    Note: Neither Scott Rasmussen,, nor RMG Research, Inc. have any affiliation with Rasmussen Reports. While Scott Rasmussen founded that firm, he left more than seven years ago and has had no involvement since that time.

    This poll was done August 21-28 among 1000 registered voters. DeSantis is not fairing nearly as well at the national level when compared to the former President in a match up against Joe Biden. The new numbers from Emerson College shows Donald Trump a single-percentage point ahead of Biden while DeSantis trails by double digits.

    Donald Trump (R) 47%
    Joe Biden (D-inc) 46%

    Joe Biden (D-inc) 48%
    Ron DeSantis (R) 36%

    Joe Biden (D-inc) 42%
    Mitt Romney (R) 23%

    This poll was done August 30-September 1 among 1200 registered voters.